NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Wednesday 19 August 2026
Data: Close 19 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,426.02 | Change: -64.94 (-0.22%) | Range: 29,288.75-29,652.30



MARKET OVERVIEW
NAS100 closed at 29,426.02, down 64.94 points (-0.22%), after opening at 29,580.85 and printing a session high of 29,652.30. The index sold off through the afternoon and settled at 29,426.02, only 137 points off the low of 29,288.75 - a weak close in the lower quarter of the range. Volume came in at 1.27bn shares against a 300-day average of 1.31bn, so the decline lacked conviction.

This was the third consecutive lower close. From the 30,762.20 swing high the index is now -4.34% lower, and it has given back 658 points in three sessions.

Drivers: The FOMC minutes released this afternoon were the session pivot - the index was green into the release and closed on the lows afterwards, with traders repositioning ahead of Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Underneath the surface the tape was split: chip-equipment and cyber names were hit hard while consumer internet, biotech and mega-cap software held up. A rally in the 30-year, taking long-end yields down roughly 10bp to 5.18%, gave some relief but was not enough to stop the fade.

Breadth: 23 advancers versus 17 decliners across the 40 components tracked, average component move +0.45%. Positive breadth with a negative index tells you the damage is concentrated in the heavyweights - AVGO alone fell 4.61%.

VIX: 15.28, down 3.54% and sitting near the 2026 low. Options are not pricing stress, which cuts both ways: cheap hedges, but also complacent positioning into a Jackson Hole week.

Bias: Cautious / neutral-to-bearish short term while price is below the 20 EMA, but the medium-term uptrend is intact above the 50 and 200 EMA. This is a pullback within an uptrend, not a trend change - yet.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (daily): Price 29,426.02 | EMA20 29,600.41 | EMA50 29,120.68 | EMA200 27,054.42

The stack is still correctly ordered for an uptrend - EMA20 above EMA50 above EMA200 - but price has now dropped below the 20 EMA for the first time in this leg. That puts NAS100 in a Mixed classification: below the 20, above the 50 and 200.

Structure: Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly remain intact. On the daily the index has broken the short-term rising channel that carried it from the June low. The 29,120 area (EMA50) is the line that matters - it has not been tested since that low, and it coincides almost exactly with the S2 pivot at 29,092.

Phase: Late-stage advance entering a corrective/consolidation phase. Distribution signals are present in semiconductors but absent in the broader index.



MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 51.39. Sitting almost exactly on the midline. It has fallen from the high-60s over three sessions but has not broken 50 decisively. No bullish or bearish divergence is present at the index level - price and RSI made their highs together at 30,762. A sustained close with RSI under 45 would confirm the correction has legs.

MACD: MACD line 200.22, signal 131.65, histogram +68.56. Still positive and still above signal, so the medium-term momentum reading is bullish - but the histogram is contracting from its peak. A bearish cross is likely within 2-4 sessions if 29,426 is not reclaimed quickly. Treat the current positive reading as decaying, not confirming.

Volume: 1.27bn against a 1.31bn average. Below-average volume on a down day is constructive - this looks like buyers stepping aside rather than sellers stepping in. Compare with the component picture, where AVGO (rv 1.77), MRVL (1.81), ADI (1.48), MELI (1.47) and CRWD (1.43) all traded heavy. Volume is rotating, not exiting.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,622.63 - classic pivot R1, and today's session high 29,652.30 sits just above. First real barrier.
R2 29,819.23 - reclaim level. Above here the pullback is over.
R3 29,986.17 - confluence with the psychological 30,000 handle and the 29,995 close from 17 Aug.

Support
S1 29,259.09 - classic pivot S1, just below today's low of 29,288.75. The first line of defence.
S2 29,092.15 - the key one. Sits on top of the EMA50 at 29,120.68. Losing this flips the medium-term picture.
S3 28,895.54 - measured downside if S2 fails.

Classic pivots: S2 29,092.15 . S1 29,259.09 . P 29,455.69 . R1 29,622.63 . R2 29,819.23

Round numbers: 29,500 (immediate overhead, and just above the pivot) . 29,000 (major psychological floor, sits between S2 and S3) . 30,000 (the level to reclaim).

Moving averages as levels: EMA20 29,600.41 (now resistance) . EMA50 29,120.68 (primary support) . EMA200 27,054.42 (structural floor, 8.1% below).



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Change . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI . MACD . percent from 52w high . POC

MRVL 237.27 . +9.85% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -28.1% off high . below POC
MELI 1,908.65 . +7.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Bullish . MACD Bear . -25.1% off high . above POC
TSLA 351.12 . +4.23% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 53.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -29.6% off high . below POC
WDAY 198.42 . +4.08% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.6 Strong . MACD Bull . -20.6% off high . above POC
REGN 840.84 . +3.78% . Bull (above all) . RSI 83.0 Overbought . MACD Bull . -0.5% off high . above POC
ADBE 272.47 . +3.55% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.4 Strong . MACD Bear . -26.5% off high . above POC
INTU 362.47 . +3.44% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 66.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -49.6% off high . above POC
NFLX 80.22 . +3.15% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -36.7% off high . above POC
CEG 274.17 . +2.75% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 54.0 Bullish . MACD Bull . -33.6% off high . above POC
AMZN 265.84 . +2.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -7.4% off high . above POC
BKNG 213.00 . +2.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.2 Strong . MACD Bear . -8.1% off high . above POC
AAPL 316.83 . +2.19% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.8 Bullish . MACD Bear . -8.1% off high . above POC
DASH 220.22 . +1.79% . Bull (above all) . RSI 67.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -22.9% off high . above POC
ABNB 186.39 . +1.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 72.4 Overbought . MACD Bull . -1.5% off high . above POC
ISRG 397.72 . +1.67% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 57.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -34.1% off high . above POC
PYPL 61.25 . +1.36% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.4 Overbought . MACD Bear . -22.7% off high . above POC
QCOM 161.91 . +1.07% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.5 Neutral . MACD Bull . -37.7% off high . below POC
MAR 359.95 . +0.73% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.9 Neutral . MACD Bull . -12.4% off high . below POC
MSFT 484.31 . +0.56% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.5 Strong . MACD Bear . -12.5% off high . above POC
LIN 481.13 . +0.51% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -12.2% off high . below POC
ORLY 91.20 . +0.48% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 53.0 Bullish . MACD Bear . -16.1% off high . above POC
META 546.03 . +0.43% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -31.0% off high . below POC
GOOGL 344.72 . +0.15% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.6% off high . below POC
TMUS 182.36 . -0.21% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -30.3% off high . above POC
MU 937.11 . -0.39% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.8 Bullish . MACD Bull . -25.3% off high . below POC
COST 956.99 . -0.45% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.8 Bullish . MACD Bull . -12.7% off high . above POC
CDNS 314.98 . -0.49% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -24.4% off high . below POC
SNPS 401.24 . -0.78% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.8% off high . below POC
ADI 373.26 . -0.89% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -16.3% off high . below POC
CSCO 110.55 . -0.95% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.2% off high . below POC
NVDA 217.56 . -0.99% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.2 Bullish . MACD Bull . -8.0% off high . above POC
TXN 267.45 . -1.76% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -19.9% off high . below POC
FTNT 152.85 . -3.27% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 44.3 Neutral . MACD Bear . -11.2% off high . above POC
AMAT 496.17 . -3.53% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.8 Neutral . MACD Bear . -32.9% off high . below POC
AMD 466.42 . -3.71% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -20.2% off high . below POC
PANW 359.76 . -3.84% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 52.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -9.8% off high . above POC
KLAC 187.27 . -3.86% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -39.1% off high . below POC
AVGO 362.48 . -4.61% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -26.8% off high . below POC
CRWD 201.63 . -5.30% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -11.4% off high . above POC
LRCX 307.17 . -6.33% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -29.9% off high . below POC

Totals: Bull 20 . Bear 15 . Mixed 5 . MACD bullish 21 of 40 . Advancers 23, decliners 17.



SECTOR BREAKDOWN
Mega-cap Tech - average +0.84%, 7 of 9 higher, average RSI 51.5
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and NVDA all hold Bull (above all) status. TSLA led with +4.23% but remains Mixed and below both the 50 and 200 EMA - a bounce, not a trend. The two problems are AVGO (-4.61%, below all EMAs, RSI 35.3) and META, which is the single weakest large-cap in the index: EMA20 583.84 under EMA50 596.08 under EMA200 623.43, a fully inverted stack, and only 5.0% above its 52-week low. GOOGL is quietly deteriorating - below the 20 and 50 EMA, below POC, RSI 46.5.

Semiconductors - average -1.06%, only 2 of 9 higher, average RSI 46.1
The clear laggard group and the source of today's index damage. LRCX -6.33%, KLAC -3.86%, AMD -3.71%, AMAT -3.53%, AVGO -4.61%. Six of the nine sit below both their 20 and 50 EMA and eight of nine are trading below their 60-day VWAP POC. MRVL was the standout exception at +9.85% on the Google share-purchase agreement (up to $12.2bn) and the Bravera SC6 / Structera X / Photonic Fabric AI-memory launches - but note it still closed 20 points below its own POC at 257.63, so even that move has overhead supply. MU held up relatively well at -0.39% and remains Bull (above all).

Software and Cloud - average -0.40%, 3 of 9 higher, average RSI 50.9
Bifurcated. WDAY (+4.08%), ADBE (+3.55%) and INTU (+3.44%) were strong; CRWD (-5.30%, rv 1.43) and PANW (-3.84%) were dumped ahead of their reporting windows. CDNS is the weakest name in the entire index on momentum - RSI 32.1, below all three EMAs, EMA20 (332.42) beneath both the EMA50 (344.79) and EMA200 (334.68). SNPS is within 9.6% of its 52-week low.

Consumer and Internet - average +1.90%, 7 of 8 higher, average RSI 61.0
The strongest sector on the day and the reason breadth stayed positive. MELI +7.28% on 1.47x volume, BKNG +2.28%, DASH +1.79%, ABNB +1.71% to a new 52-week high at 189.20. PYPL RSI 71.4 and ABNB RSI 72.4 are both overbought. COST was the only decliner at -0.45% and is the odd one out - it sits above its 20 and 50 EMA but below the 200 at 963.06.

Healthcare and Biotech - average +2.72%, 2 of 2 higher, average RSI 70.0
REGN +3.78% and closed at 840.84, printing a new 52-week high of 844.92. RSI 83.0 is deeply overbought - the trend is powerful but the entry is not here. ISRG +1.67%, Bull (above 20/50) but still 34.1% off its high and below the 200 EMA at 446.76.

Industrial and Other - average +1.02%, 2 of 3 higher, average RSI 48.6
CEG +2.75% continues its recovery, above the 20 and 50 EMA but 33.6% off its high. LIN is the concern: +0.51% on the day but RSI 39.8, below all three EMAs, and trading on 1.28x relative volume. TMUS -0.21%, Mixed, above the 20 but below the 50 and 200.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. AVGO - SHORT on retest (highest conviction)
Entry: 371.70 . Stop: 382.00 . T1: 348.37 . T2: 339.12 . R:R: 2.3 to T1, 3.2 to T2
The cleanest bearish structure in the index. Closed 362.48, down 4.61% on 1.77x relative volume - that is genuine distribution, not drift. Bear (below all): price is under the EMA20 396.39, EMA50 394.55 and now the EMA200 365.89. RSI 35.3 and falling. Trading 36 points beneath its POC at 398.75, so every rally into the mid-390s meets trapped supply. Sell the retest into R1 371.72 / today's high 373.91, stop above R2 380.97. Targets are the S2 and S3 pivots at 348.37 and 339.12. Invalidated on a daily close back above 382.

2. MRVL - LONG on pullback
Entry: 228.40 . Stop: 209.00 . T1: 257.63 . T2: 263.20 . R:R: 1.5 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Best momentum in the index: +9.85% on 1.81x volume, Bull (above all) with the EMA20 (216.23) and EMA50 (216.09) now stacked tightly beneath price and the EMA200 far below at 162.95. The catalyst is real - a filing disclosing Google can buy up to 58.97m shares at $206.58 tied to procurement targets through FY2033, plus the AI-memory product launches. Do not chase the 245.49 high; wait for the S1 pivot at 228.42 to be tested. First target is the POC at 257.63, which is the genuine overhead barrier. Risk: earnings 27 August - close or halve before the print, and the ATR of 18.38 means position size needs to be small.

3. META - SHORT on bounce
Entry: 562.50 . Stop: 573.00 . T1: 537.27 . T2: 520.26 . R:R: 2.4 to T1, 4.1 to T2
Fully inverted EMA stack - 20 (583.84) below 50 (596.08) below 200 (623.43) - which is the textbook confirmed downtrend. RSI 37.1, MACD -11.90 versus signal -7.69 and widening, and price is 52 points below the POC at 598.03. Down 31.0% from the 52-week high and only 25.77 points above the 52-week low at 520.26. Sell strength into the R2 pivot at 562.59 rather than chasing the low. T2 is the 52-week low itself, which is where I would take the bulk off.

4. REGN - LONG on pullback (momentum leader)
Entry: 822.50 . Stop: 799.00 . T1: 863.25 . T2: 881.59 . R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.5 to T2
Closed 840.84, +3.78%, at a new 52-week high of 844.92. Bull (above all) with EMA20 767.94, EMA50 720.51, EMA200 700.76 - a wide, healthy stack - and price is 175 points above the POC at 665.40, meaning zero overhead supply. The only problem is RSI 83.0, which is why this is a pullback entry and not a breakout entry. Buy the S1 pivot at 822.51, stop below the last consolidation shelf. If it never pulls back, let it go - chasing RSI 83 into R2 is how you buy the high.

5. MSFT - LONG on pullback
Entry: 474.40 . Stop: 462.00 . T1: 494.26 . T2: 510.00 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 2.9 to T2
Bull (above all) with a wide stack - EMA20 467.26, EMA50 437.06, EMA200 430.93 - and price 70 points clear of the POC at 414.63. RSI 63.5 is strong without being stretched. The caution flag is the MACD, which has rolled to bearish (23.05 versus signal 24.76), and relative volume of just 0.53 shows nobody is defending it. That combination argues for waiting: buy the S2 pivot at 474.38, which is 7 points above the EMA20 and gives a stop with room. Not a chase above 489.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. NVDA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Entry: 215.90 . Stop: 214.20 . T1: 218.12 . T2: 219.06 . R:R: 1.3 to T1
The 217.56 close sits inside the Camarilla S1/R1 band (217.00 to 218.12), which is the classic range-day signature - fade the extremes. The reason this one has an edge is confluence: Cam S3 at 215.88 sits directly on the EMA20 at 215.39 and just above the S1 pivot at 215.26. Three independent levels within 0.6 points. Buy that pocket, stop below Cam S4 214.20, first target Cam R1 and then the daily pivot at 219.06. Note NVDA reports Q2 FY27 on 26 August - intraday only, no overnight carry into that week without a plan.

2. AAPL - classic pivot bounce, LONG
Entry: 315.30 . Stop: 311.00 . T1: 320.87 . T2: 324.92 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.3 to T2
Closed 316.83, +2.19%, Bull (above all) and 10 points above the POC at 306.94. The daily pivot at 315.24 and Cam S1 at 315.94 are stacked right beneath the close, giving a tight, well-defined entry shelf. Stop goes under the S1 pivot at 311.19 and the EMA20 at 312.43 - if both fail the long thesis is wrong. Targets R1 320.87 then R2 324.92. Long bias only while price holds 315.

3. TSLA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Entry: 346.70 . Stop: 342.40 . T1: 352.58 . T2: 356.59 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.3 to T2
Best confluence of the intraday book: Cam S3 at 346.74 and the daily pivot at 346.15 are effectively the same level, with the EMA20 at 339.36 underneath as a secondary floor. Closed 351.12 after a 4.23% rally inside the Cam S1/R1 band. Stop below Cam S4 342.36. Context caution: TSLA is still Mixed - above the 20 EMA but below the EMA50 359.16 and EMA200 383.44, and 27 points below the POC at 378.33. This is an intraday long inside a broader downtrend. Do not hold it overnight expecting 372.

4. GOOGL - Camarilla range fade, SHORT
Entry: 346.40 . Stop: 348.10 . T1: 344.16 . T2: 343.05 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.0 to T2
A very compressed Camarilla band (S1 344.16 to R1 345.28) around a 344.72 close - the tightest in the group, which means whichever side breaks first tends to run. I favour the short because the daily structure is deteriorating: Bear (below 20/50) with the EMA20 at 348.73 and EMA50 at 351.75 both overhead, RSI 46.5, MACD negative, and price 10 points under the POC at 354.96. Sell Cam R3 346.39, stop above Cam R4 348.06, which also sits under the EMA20 - a clean invalidation. Tight stop, so size accordingly.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD
NVDA - 217.56 (-0.99%)
Camarilla: S4 214.20 . S3 215.88 . S1 217.00 || R1 218.12 . R3 219.24 . R4 220.92
Classic: S3 209.15 . S2 212.95 . S1 215.26 . P 219.06 . R1 221.37 . R2 225.17 . R3 227.48
EMAs: 20 215.39 . 50 210.11 . 200 194.95 . POC: 208.11
Prev H/L: 222.87 / 216.76 . 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07 . ATR14: 6.59

AAPL - 316.83 (+2.19%)
Camarilla: S4 311.51 . S3 314.17 . S1 315.94 || R1 317.72 . R3 319.49 . R4 322.15
Classic: S3 301.51 . S2 305.56 . S1 311.19 . P 315.24 . R1 320.87 . R2 324.92 . R3 330.55
EMAs: 20 312.43 . 50 309.30 . 200 282.63 . POC: 306.94
Prev H/L: 319.28 / 309.60 . 52w H/L: 344.57 / 223.78 . ATR14: 7.67

MSFT - 484.31 (+0.56%)
Camarilla: S4 478.84 . S3 481.58 . S1 483.40 || R1 485.22 . R3 487.04 . R4 489.78
Classic: S3 469.41 . S2 474.38 . S1 479.35 . P 484.32 . R1 489.29 . R2 494.26 . R3 499.23
EMAs: 20 467.26 . 50 437.06 . 200 430.93 . POC: 414.63
Prev H/L: 489.30 / 479.36 . 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 . ATR14: 13.28

AMZN - 265.84 (+2.46%)
Camarilla: S4 261.54 . S3 263.69 . S1 265.12 || R1 266.56 . R3 267.99 . R4 270.14
Classic: S3 252.99 . S2 255.79 . S1 260.81 . P 263.61 . R1 268.63 . R2 271.43 . R3 276.45
EMAs: 20 261.10 . 50 254.45 . 200 240.05 . POC: 249.40
Prev H/L: 266.40 / 258.58 . 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 . ATR14: 7.86

AVGO - 362.48 (-4.61%)
Camarilla: S4 353.52 . S3 358.00 . S1 360.99 || R1 363.97 . R3 366.96 . R4 371.45
Classic: S3 339.12 . S2 348.37 . S1 355.42 . P 364.67 . R1 371.72 . R2 380.97 . R3 388.02
EMAs: 20 396.39 . 50 394.55 . 200 365.89 . POC: 398.75
Prev H/L: 373.91 / 357.61 . 52w H/L: 495.00 / 281.87 . ATR14: 16.43



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Semiconductor distribution. The group averaged -1.06% with only 2 of 9 higher. LRCX -6.33%, AVGO -4.61%, KLAC -3.86%, AMD -3.71%, AMAT -3.53%. AVGO in particular fell on 1.77x relative volume, which is the signature of institutional selling rather than a drift lower. Eight of the nine semis are trading below their 60-day VWAP POC.

2. META - confirmed downtrend, near 52-week low. EMA20 583.84 below EMA50 596.08 below EMA200 623.43. RSI 37.1. Down 31.0% from its high and only 5.0% above the 52-week low of 520.26. There is no technical support case here until it reclaims the 20 EMA.

3. CDNS - weakest momentum in the index. RSI 32.1, approaching oversold but with no divergence to support a bounce. Below all three EMAs, and the EMA20 (332.42) has dropped beneath both the EMA50 (344.79) and the EMA200 (334.68). Trading 49 points under its POC at 364.24.

4. AVGO death cross forming. The EMA20 at 396.39 has crossed below the EMA50 at 394.55, and today's close at 362.48 has now broken the EMA200 at 365.89. Losing a 200 EMA on 1.77x volume is a serious signal in a mega-cap.

5. Overbought extremes. REGN RSI 83.0 at a 52-week high, ABNB RSI 72.4 also at a 52-week high, PYPL RSI 71.4. All three are extended. PYPL additionally has a bearish MACD (2.56 versus signal 2.77) while at RSI 71 - the classic negative-momentum-at-the-high combination. Reduce, do not add.

6. Hidden weakness in the winners. MELI rose 7.28% but its MACD (12.28) is still well below signal (19.50) - the rally has not yet repaired momentum. ADBE closed +3.55% with MACD 9.51 versus signal 9.56, a marginal bearish cross. Both moves need a second day of follow-through to be trusted.

7. LIN. Nominally +0.51% but below all three EMAs with RSI 39.8 on 1.28x relative volume - being sold into strength.

8. Index-level warning. NAS100 has closed below its 20 EMA for the first time in this advance, three lower closes in a row, and the MACD histogram is contracting from its peak. Watch 29,092 (S2 / EMA50 confluence). A daily close beneath it changes the medium-term structure.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Thursday 20 August
Initial jobless claims - consensus around 255k versus 250k prior. Walmart earnings before the open, which sets the tone for the consumer read-through into COST, ORLY and the retail-adjacent names.

Friday 21 August
Flash US PMIs (manufacturing and services). The last significant data point before Jackson Hole.

The week ahead
Jackson Hole - Chair Warsh speaks. Today's FOMC minutes showed three dissenting officials pushing toward a hike, so the framing at Jackson Hole is the single biggest macro risk on the horizon.

Component earnings
NVDA - Wednesday 26 August, after the close. Q2 FY27, consensus revenue $93-95bn, roughly +67% year on year. This is the index event, not just a stock event.
MRVL - Thursday 27 August. Directly relevant to the swing long above; the ATR of 18.38 means an unhedged position through the print is a coin toss.
CRWD and PANW both have reporting windows approaching, which explains today's pre-earnings de-risking (-5.30% and -3.84%).



Report: 19 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 18 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 18 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,490.96 | Change: -504.42 (-1.68%) | Range: 29,425.08-29,677.29


MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 closed at 29,490.96, down 504.42 points (-1.68%) from Monday's 29,995.38. The index opened at 29,594.89, traded a 252-point range between 29,425.08 and 29,677.29, and settled in the lower third of that range on 1.268bn shares versus 1.156bn on Monday - a higher-volume down day, which is textbook distribution.

The damage was concentrated and it was concentrated in one place: semiconductors. The ten NAS100 chip names averaged -4.47% on the day. MRVL -7.82%, MU -6.98%, KLAC -5.33%, LRCX -4.63%, AMD -4.27%, AMAT -3.92%, TXN -3.77%, ADI -3.50%, AVGO -3.21%. META added to it with -4.42% on the heaviest relative volume in the index at 1.53x.

The macro driver was rates, not earnings. The 30-year Treasury yield printed a fresh 19-year high with the 10-year holding near 4.70%, on persistent inflation worry, elevated oil after fading US-Iran de-escalation hopes, and sovereign debt supply concerns. High-multiple growth is the most duration-sensitive part of the market and it took the hit. Money rotated defensively - healthcare and staples caught a bid, and inside our 40 that shows up as REGN +0.53% closing 1.3% off its 52-week high with an RSI of 78.5.

Breadth was poor but not washed out: 17 advancers, 23 decliners. VIX rose to roughly 15.85 from 15.19, a two-week high, but still historically subdued - this is a rotation, not a panic.

Bias: Cautiously bullish on the higher timeframe, defensive on the daily. The index is still above all three key EMAs and MACD is still positive. But the leadership group is breaking and the volume signature is wrong.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack: Close 29,490.96 > EMA20 29,365.56 > EMA50 29,108.21 > EMA200 27,030.59.

That is a fully bullish stack, in correct order, with no crossover damage yet. Close sits +125.40 (+0.43%) above the 20 EMA, +382.75 (+1.32%) above the 50 EMA, and +2,460.37 (+9.10%) above the 200 EMA. The 200 EMA is nearly 2,500 points below price - the primary uptrend is not remotely in question.

Structure: The index put in a swing high at 30,195.72 on 14 August and has now given back three sessions. Today's low of 29,425.08 is the first meaningful test of the 20 EMA zone since the rally began. Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly remain intact.

Phase: Late-stage advance moving into corrective/consolidation. The 20 EMA at 29,365.56 is the line that matters - it has been dynamic support throughout the leg. A daily close beneath it opens the 29,108 (50 EMA) shelf. Until then this is a pullback inside an uptrend, not a reversal.


MOMENTUM AND VOLUME INDICATORS
RSI(14): 52.20 - neutral, and notably it has rolled under its own signal MA at 54.45. RSI has fallen from the high-60s at the 14 August high without price making a lower low on the weekly, so no confirmed bearish divergence yet, but momentum is clearly decelerating. 50 is the pivot: hold it and the uptrend resumes, lose it and 40 comes into play fast.

MACD: 226.44, Signal 114.51, Histogram +111.93 - still bullish, MACD above signal and both above zero. But the histogram is compressing. Two more sessions of this and you get a bearish crossover with MACD still well above zero, which historically marks a pause rather than a top. Watch for the histogram to flip negative as the early warning.

Volume: 1.268bn today against 1.156bn Monday and a 1.22bn five-session average. Rising volume into a 1.68% decline is a distribution day. That is the single most concerning line in this report.

ATR(14): 501.48 - roughly 1.70% of index value. Today's 252-point range was only 0.50 ATR, so despite the headline drop this was an orderly, low-range slide rather than a volatility event. Position sizing should use 500 points as the daily noise band.


KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,637.13 - classic pivot R1, sits right at today's high of 29,677.29. First and most important reclaim level.
R2 29,783.31 - classic pivot R2, coincides with the 29,750-29,880 supply shelf from 12-17 August.
R3 29,889.34 - classic pivot R3, guards the 30,000 round number and the 30,195.72 swing high.

Support
S1 29,384.93 - classic pivot S1, effectively on top of the EMA20 at 29,365.56. Critical confluence.
S2 29,278.91 - classic pivot S2, air pocket between EMA20 and EMA50.
S3 29,132.73 - classic pivot S3, sits just above the EMA50 at 29,108.21. Major structural floor.

Classic pivots: S2 29,278.91 . S1 29,384.93 . P 29,531.11 . R1 29,637.13 . R2 29,783.31
Round numbers: 29,500 (price is glued to it) . 29,000 . 30,000
Moving averages: EMA20 29,365.56 . EMA50 29,108.21 . EMA200 27,030.59


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses STRICT EMA classification: close versus EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200. Every line below was verified programmatically - 0 mismatches across 40 stocks.

AAPL 310.03 +1.45% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.9 Neutral . MACD Bear . -10.0% from 52wH . POC Above
ABNB 183.25 +2.21% . Bull (above all) . RSI 70.6 Overbought . MACD Bull . -2.1% from 52wH . POC Above
ADBE 263.14 +3.58% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 57.4 Neutral . MACD Bear . -29.0% from 52wH . POC Above
ADI 376.63 -3.50% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -15.5% from 52wH . POC Below
AMAT 514.33 -3.92% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -30.5% from 52wH . POC Below
AMD 484.39 -4.27% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.5 Neutral . MACD Bull . -17.2% from 52wH . POC Below
AMZN 259.45 -0.71% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 50.9 Neutral . MACD Bear . -9.7% from 52wH . POC Above
AVGO 379.83 -3.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -23.3% from 52wH . POC Below
BKNG 208.25 +1.70% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -10.2% from 52wH . POC Above
CDNS 316.52 -2.15% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.9 Bearish . MACD Bear . -24.0% from 52wH . POC Below
CEG 266.83 -4.09% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.3% from 52wH . POC Above
COST 961.35 +0.82% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.1 Neutral . MACD Bull . -12.3% from 52wH . POC Above
CRWD 212.92 -0.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -6.4% from 52wH . POC Above
CSCO 111.61 -1.14% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -14.4% from 52wH . POC Below
DASH 216.35 +1.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -24.2% from 52wH . POC Above
FTNT 158.01 +1.39% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -8.2% from 52wH . POC Above
GOOGL 344.20 +0.06% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.2 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.8% from 52wH . POC Below
INTU 350.41 +4.41% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -51.4% from 52wH . POC Above
ISRG 391.18 +0.22% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 54.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.2% from 52wH . POC Above
KLAC 194.79 -5.33% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -36.6% from 52wH . POC Below
LIN 478.71 +0.92% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.7 Bearish . MACD Bear . -12.7% from 52wH . POC Below
LRCX 327.92 -4.63% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -25.2% from 52wH . POC Below
MAR 357.33 +0.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -13.1% from 52wH . POC Below
MELI 1779.14 -0.47% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -30.2% from 52wH . POC Above
META 543.82 -4.42% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.2 Bearish . MACD Bear . -31.2% from 52wH . POC Below
MRVL 216.00 -7.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 50.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -34.5% from 52wH . POC Below
MSFT 481.63 +0.27% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -13.0% from 52wH . POC Above
MU 941.10 -6.98% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -25.0% from 52wH . POC Below
NFLX 77.77 +2.30% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 58.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -38.6% from 52wH . POC Above
NVDA 219.74 -2.34% . Bull (above all) . RSI 56.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -7.1% from 52wH . POC Above
ORLY 90.76 +0.59% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 51.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -16.5% from 52wH . POC Above
PANW 374.14 -0.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -6.2% from 52wH . POC Above
PYPL 60.43 -0.07% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.1 Bullish . MACD Bear . -23.7% from 52wH . POC Above
QCOM 160.19 -1.23% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -38.4% from 52wH . POC Below
REGN 810.24 +0.53% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.5 Overbought . MACD Bull . -1.3% from 52wH . POC Above
SNPS 404.41 -2.13% . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.4% from 52wH . POC Below
TMUS 182.75 +1.46% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.4 Neutral . MACD Bull . -30.1% from 52wH . POC Above
TSLA 336.93 -0.70% . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -32.5% from 52wH . POC Below
TXN 272.24 -3.77% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -18.5% from 52wH . POC Below
WDAY 190.64 -0.29% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.6 Bullish . MACD Bull . -23.7% from 52wH . POC Above

Tally: Bull above all 13 . Bull above 20/50 6 . Bear below 20/50 9 . Bear below all 8 . Mixed 4 | 25 of 40 MACD bullish | 22 of 40 above 60-day VWAP POC | 17 advancers / 23 decliners


SECTOR GROUPING

MEGA-CAP TECH
AAPL +1.45% . MSFT +0.27% . NVDA -2.34% . AMZN -0.71% . META -4.42% . GOOGL +0.06% . TSLA -0.70%
Split down the middle. MSFT and NVDA hold bullish EMA stacks and remain the structural anchors. AAPL and AMZN slipped below the 20 EMA but hold the 50 and 200. GOOGL and TSLA are below both the 20 and 50. META is the outlier and the problem child - below all three EMAs, RSI 36.2, 31.2% off its high, on the heaviest volume in the index.

SEMICONDUCTORS
AVGO -3.21% . AMD -4.27% . QCOM -1.23% . TXN -3.77% . AMAT -3.92% . MU -6.98% . LRCX -4.63% . KLAC -5.33% . ADI -3.50% . MRVL -7.82%
The epicentre. Average -4.47% on the session with five names on above-average relative volume (ADI 1.49, AVGO 1.19, KLAC 1.12, MRVL 1.12, AMAT 1.08). Seven of ten now sit below both the 20 and 50 EMA, and eight of ten are below their 60-day POC. Only MU, LRCX and MRVL still carry a bullish EMA stack, and all three did so while falling 4.6-7.8% today, which means those stacks are one or two sessions from breaking. Note the split personality: MACD is still bullish on AMD, KLAC, AMAT, TXN, ADI and MU because the damage is fresh. This group is the index's swing factor - if it stabilises the NAS100 holds 29,365; if it doesn't, 29,108 is on the table.

SOFTWARE AND CLOUD
ADBE +3.58% . INTU +4.41% . PANW -0.43% . SNPS -2.13% . CDNS -2.15% . CRWD -0.46% . FTNT +1.39% . WDAY -0.29%
The relative strength pocket. PANW, CRWD and WDAY all hold bullish stacks with bullish MACD and sit above POC. INTU jumped +4.41% and ADBE +3.58%, both closing above the 20 and 50 EMA. The EDA pair is the exception and it is ugly: CDNS is below all three EMAs with the weakest RSI in the index at 32.9, and SNPS is also below all three. Security and HR software are working, chip-design software is not - which is the semiconductor story showing up one layer down the stack.

CONSUMER AND INTERNET
COST +0.82% . NFLX +2.30% . BKNG +1.70% . MELI -0.47% . MAR +0.21% . ABNB +2.21% . DASH +1.71% . PYPL -0.07% . ORLY +0.59%
Broadly constructive and the day's quiet outperformer. ABNB +2.21% with RSI 70.6 and only 2.1% off its 52-week high, DASH +1.71% on 1.30x relative volume, BKNG +1.70%, NFLX +2.30%, COST +0.82%. Seven of nine sit above their POC. The laggards are MELI, below all three EMAs and 30.2% off its high, and MAR, below the 20 and 50. PYPL is worth flagging: bullish stack and RSI 69.1, but MACD has turned bearish - momentum is topping even though price is not.

HEALTHCARE AND BIOTECH
ISRG +0.22% . REGN +0.53%
Two names, two very different pictures. REGN is the strongest chart in the entire index - bullish stack, RSI 78.5, MACD bullish, closing 1.3% from its 52-week high on a red tape. That is exactly the defensive rotation the bond move is forcing. ISRG is mixed: above the 20 EMA but below the 50 and 200, 35.2% off its high, though MACD has turned bullish and it closed green. Small sector, but its behaviour is the clearest tell that money is playing defence.

INDUSTRIAL AND OTHER
LIN +0.92% . CEG -4.09% . CSCO -1.14% . TMUS +1.46%
The weak corner. LIN is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.7 and MACD bearish, which is a poor sign given industrial gas is supposed to be defensive. CEG is below all three EMAs and 35.3% off its high after -4.09% - the power/AI-datacentre trade is unwinding hard alongside the chips. CSCO is below the 20 and 50 with bearish MACD. TMUS is the only healthy one, above the 20 and 50 with bullish MACD and above POC, doing its job as a rate-insensitive, cash-generative defensive.


TOP SWING SETUPS

1. PANW - LONG (pullback into support)
Bullish EMA stack with the 20 at 361.77 and the 50 at 329.46, RSI 59.8, MACD bullish at 16.12 over 15.26, price 60 points clear of its 60-day POC at 314.31, and only 6.2% below its 52-week high of 398.88. It closed -0.43% on a day the index lost 1.68% - that is relative strength, and it is the cleanest long in the software complex.
Entry: 369.00 . Stop: 358.50 . T1: 380.00 . T2: 388.83 . R:R: 1.89
Confluence: Classic S1 368.75 and Camarilla S4 368.62 land on the entry. Stop sits under classic S3 at 358.71 and beneath the 20 EMA. T2 is classic R3. Risk 10.50 is 0.72 ATR - tight but respects structure.

2. DASH - LONG (trend continuation)
Bullish EMA stack across 204.76 / 191.84 / 189.26, RSI 65.4, MACD bullish and widening at 8.67 over 8.07, and the highest conviction volume of any long candidate at 1.30x relative. It gained +1.71% while the index fell, and it trades 34 points above its POC of 182.03.
Entry: 212.00 . Stop: 202.00 . T1: 222.81 . T2: 232.04 . R:R: 2.00
Confluence: Entry sits between classic S1 211.74 and Camarilla S4 210.77. Stop is below the 20 EMA at 204.76. T1 is today's high, T2 is classic R3. The 24.2% distance from its 52-week high leaves plenty of overhead room.

3. WDAY - LONG (strongest MACD expansion)
Bullish stack with a wide gap between price and the 50 EMA at 155.64, RSI 63.6, and the most decisively expanding MACD in the software group at 14.06 over 12.24. Price is 44 points above its POC of 146.55, and today's range was unusually tight - 190.43 to 195.78 - which is coiling behaviour, not distribution.
Entry: 189.00 . Stop: 180.50 . T1: 197.63 . T2: 207.00 . R:R: 2.12
Confluence: Entry at classic S1 188.79 and Camarilla S4 187.70. T1 is classic R2. Low relative volume at 0.70 is the one caveat - wait for volume to confirm on the bounce.

4. META - SHORT (breakdown continuation)
The weakest large-cap in the index. Below all three EMAs - 587.84, 598.13 and 624.21 - RSI 36.2, MACD bearish at -9.81 under -6.63, trading 55 points below its POC of 598.99, and 31.2% off its 52-week high. Crucially it closed at 543.82, just 0.61 above the session low of 543.21, on 1.53x relative volume - the highest conviction selling in the entire NAS100. The 52-week low at 520.26 is only 4.3% away.
Entry: 549.23 . Stop: 561.00 . T1: 537.80 . T2: 520.35 . R:R: 2.45
Confluence: Entry is the classic pivot, a natural retest level. Stop is above today's high of 560.66. T1 is classic S1, T2 is classic S3 sitting right on the 52-week low. Risk 11.77 is 0.53 ATR.

5. AVGO - SHORT (fresh MACD bearish cross)
Below the 20 EMA at 399.95 and the 50 at 395.85 with the 200 still beneath at 365.92, RSI 41.1, and a freshly completed bearish MACD cross - 2.64 has just dropped under the signal at 5.29. Price closed 20 points below its POC of 399.65 on 1.19x relative volume, and 23.3% off its 52-week high of 495.00. As the largest semiconductor weight in the index this one carries the sector.
Entry: 385.00 . Stop: 396.50 . T1: 372.10 . T2: 365.92 . R:R: 1.66
Confluence: Entry at today's high 385.78 and classic R1 384.74. Stop above the 50 EMA. T1 is classic S2, T2 is the 200 EMA - the obvious magnet and the level that decides whether this becomes a genuine sector breakdown.


INTRADAY SETUPS

1. NVDA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Close 219.74 sits between Camarilla S3 218.93 and R3 220.55, which is the classic range-day signature - fade the extremes. Bullish EMA stack and price above POC 208.16 mean the long side is the higher-probability leg.
Direction: Long . Entry: 218.95 . Stop: 218.00 . Target: 220.55 . R:R: 1.68
Reasoning: Entry at Camarilla S3, stop just under Camarilla S4 at 218.12, target Camarilla R3. Extremely tight 2.95-point daily range means this is a small-size, high-precision trade. Abandon it if price opens outside the Camarilla band.

2. AMD - Camarilla range fade, SHORT
Close 484.39 sits inside the Camarilla band between S3 479.76 and R3 489.02. Bias is short because price is below its 20 EMA at 494.21 and 24 points below POC 508.78, with the sector under pressure.
Direction: Short . Entry: 489.02 . Stop: 493.90 . Target: 479.76 . R:R: 1.90
Reasoning: Sell Camarilla R3, stop above Camarilla R4 at 493.65 which also sits under the 20 EMA - a clean invalidation. Target Camarilla S3. Wide ATR of 30.96 means size down accordingly.

3. META - Camarilla fade with trend, SHORT
The highest-conviction intraday trade of the five because the daily trend, the volume and the Camarilla structure all point the same way.
Direction: Short . Entry: 548.62 . Stop: 553.70 . Target: 539.02 . R:R: 1.89
Reasoning: Sell Camarilla R3, stop above Camarilla R4 at 553.42. First target Camarilla S3 at 539.02, and because the daily trend is down, runners can be held for Camarilla S4 at 534.22 which gives 2.83R. Only take the short - do not fade the S3 level for a long in a stock below all three EMAs.

4. MSFT - classic pivot bounce, LONG
Close 481.63 is sitting 0.61 above the classic pivot of 481.02, with a bullish EMA stack and price 67 points above POC 414.10. Textbook pivot-support long.
Direction: Long . Entry: 481.00 . Stop: 477.00 . Target: 488.14 . R:R: 1.79
Reasoning: Entry at the pivot, stop below classic S1 at 477.76 and today's low of 477.15, target classic R2. Note MACD has just turned marginally bearish at 24.58 versus 25.19, so treat this as a bounce trade rather than a trend trade and take T1 at R1 484.88.

5. MU - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Close 941.10 sits between Camarilla S3 926.79 and R3 955.41 after a -6.98% flush. Bullish EMA stack survives - 917.13, 900.39, 629.28 - and MACD has just crossed bullish at 5.58 over -10.30, making this a mean-reversion candidate rather than a breakdown.
Direction: Long . Entry: 926.79 . Stop: 911.50 . Target: 955.41 . R:R: 1.87
Reasoning: Entry at Camarilla S3, stop below Camarilla S4 at 912.48, target Camarilla R3. The caveat is real: price closed 25 points below its POC of 966.58 and the sector is in freefall, so this is counter-sector. ATR of 73.09 demands very small size. Skip it if semis gap down.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5

NVDA
Close: 219.74 (-2.34%) . Prev H/L: 221.64 / 218.69 . ATR14: 6.63 . Rel Vol: 0.84
Camarilla: S4 218.12 . S3 218.93 . S1 219.47 || R1 220.01 . R3 220.55 . R4 221.36
Classic: S3 215.46 . S2 217.07 . S1 218.41 . P 220.02 . R1 221.36 . R2 222.97 . R3 224.31
EMAs: 20 215.16 . 50 209.80 . 200 194.72 . POC: 208.16 . 52w: 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT
Close: 481.63 (+0.27%) . Prev H/L: 484.27 / 477.15 . ATR14: 13.54 . Rel Vol: 0.63
Camarilla: S4 477.71 . S3 479.67 . S1 480.98 || R1 482.28 . R3 483.59 . R4 485.55
Classic: S3 470.64 . S2 473.90 . S1 477.76 . P 481.02 . R1 484.88 . R2 488.14 . R3 492.00
EMAs: 20 465.47 . 50 435.13 . 200 430.39 . POC: 414.10 . 52w: 553.72 / 349.20

META
Close: 543.82 (-4.42%) . Prev H/L: 560.66 / 543.21 . ATR14: 22.17 . Rel Vol: 1.53
Camarilla: S4 534.22 . S3 539.02 . S1 542.22 || R1 545.42 . R3 548.62 . R4 553.42
Classic: S3 520.35 . S2 531.78 . S1 537.80 . P 549.23 . R1 555.25 . R2 566.68 . R3 572.70
EMAs: 20 587.84 . 50 598.13 . 200 624.21 . POC: 598.99 . 52w: 790.80 / 520.26

MU
Close: 941.10 (-6.98%) . Prev H/L: 978.67 / 926.64 . ATR14: 73.09 . Rel Vol: 0.85
Camarilla: S4 912.48 . S3 926.79 . S1 936.33 || R1 945.87 . R3 955.41 . R4 969.72
Classic: S3 866.91 . S2 896.77 . S1 918.94 . P 948.80 . R1 970.97 . R2 1000.83 . R3 1023.00
EMAs: 20 917.13 . 50 900.39 . 200 629.28 . POC: 966.58 . 52w: 1255.00 / 113.46

AMD
Close: 484.39 (-4.27%) . Prev H/L: 491.81 / 474.98 . ATR14: 30.96 . Rel Vol: 0.82
Camarilla: S4 475.13 . S3 479.76 . S1 482.85 || R1 485.93 . R3 489.02 . R4 493.65
Classic: S3 458.81 . S2 466.90 . S1 475.64 . P 483.73 . R1 492.47 . R2 500.56 . R3 509.30
EMAs: 20 494.21 . 50 487.53 . 200 360.86 . POC: 508.78 . 52w: 584.73 / 149.22


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Index distribution. Volume rose to 1.268bn on a 1.68% decline against 1.156bn on Monday. Higher volume on a down day is institutional selling, not retail. This is the single most important warning in tonight's report.

2. Semiconductor leadership has broken. The group averaged -4.47%. Seven of ten are now below both the 20 and 50 EMA and eight of ten are below their 60-day POC. When the index's highest-beta leadership group loses its structure, the index usually follows within a week or two unless something else takes the baton.

3. META is in free fall. Below all three EMAs, RSI 36.2, MACD bearish, closed 0.61 above the session low on the index's heaviest relative volume at 1.53x. The 52-week low of 520.26 is 4.3% away and there is no meaningful support between here and there.

4. CDNS at RSI 32.9. The weakest momentum reading in the index, below all three EMAs, 24.0% off its high and 48 points beneath its POC of 365.03. SNPS is in the same condition. Chip-design software confirming the semiconductor weakness is a bad combination.

5. Eight names below all three EMAs. CDNS, CEG, LIN, MELI, META, QCOM, SNPS and TSLA. That is 20% of the index in full technical downtrends, up from where this measure sat a week ago.

6. CEG and the power trade. Down 4.09% to sit 35.3% below its 52-week high, below all three EMAs. The AI-datacentre-power theme is unwinding in lockstep with the chips, which suggests this is a single positioning trade coming off rather than two separate stories.

7. Defensive failure at LIN. Industrial gas is meant to be a safe harbour, yet LIN is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.7 and bearish MACD. When the defensives are also broken, the rotation has fewer places to hide.

8. Overbought names on thin volume. REGN at RSI 78.5 made its push on only 0.72x relative volume, and ABNB at 70.6 on 0.83x. Low-volume advances into overbought territory are prone to sharp mean reversion. PYPL is the clearest early warning - RSI 69.1 with MACD already turned bearish, a momentum top forming while price still looks fine.

9. Index momentum decelerating. RSI at 52.20 has crossed below its own MA at 54.45, and the MACD histogram has compressed to +111.93 and is shrinking. Neither has confirmed a bearish signal yet, but both are pointed the wrong way.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Wednesday 19 August
FOMC Minutes (19:00 UK) - minutes from the 28-29 July meeting. That decision carried a 9-3 vote with the first three-way same-direction dissent since September 2016, so the minutes are unusually consequential. With the 30-year at a 19-year high, any hawkish language on the inflation path is the obvious risk to a market already selling duration.
Weekly EIA crude inventories (15:30 UK) - oil is part of tonight's story via the stalled US-Iran situation, so a draw would keep upward pressure on yields and on the NAS100.

Thursday 20 August
Weekly jobless claims (13:30 UK)
Existing home sales - a direct read on how the long end is transmitting into the real economy.

Looking further out
NVDA fiscal Q2 earnings - Wednesday 26 August, after the close. This is the event that matters for this index. With the semiconductor group down 4.47% today and seven of ten below their key EMAs, NVDA's print lands with the sector already damaged. Expect chip names to trade with compressed ranges and elevated implied volatility into it.
Q2 GDP second estimate - 26 August.

Component earnings watch
Late August is the traditional reporting window for several NAS100 names on fiscal calendars offset from the calendar year - INTU, WDAY, CRWD, ADSK-adjacent software and MRVL among them. INTU's +4.41% and ADBE's +3.58% today, both against a heavily red tape, suggest positioning is already moving ahead of those dates. Confirm exact dates with your broker before sizing any of the software longs above - an earnings date inside your holding period changes the risk profile of every setup in this report.


SUMMARY
The NAS100 remains structurally bullish - above all three EMAs, positive MACD, and 9.1% clear of the 200 EMA. But tonight's session was a genuine warning: leadership broke, volume expanded on the decline, and the driver is macro rather than fundamental, which means it will not resolve on earnings news.

The level that decides it is 29,365.56, the 20 EMA, backed by classic S1 at 29,384.93. Hold that and this is a routine pullback in an uptrend - lean long on the software and consumer names, which is where the relative strength genuinely is. Lose it on a closing basis and 29,278 then 29,132 come quickly, and the semiconductor shorts become the trade.

Trade the setups, respect the stops, and remember that with an ATR of 501 points the index can move 1.7% in a day without meaning anything at all.

Report: 18 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - FRIDAY 14 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 14 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 30,052.8 | Change: -57.3 (-0.19%) | Range: 29,933 - 30,180



MARKET OVERVIEW
NAS100 closed at 30,052.8, down 57.3 points (-0.19%) on the day, in a tight 247-point range (29,933 - 30,180) that was only about 65% of the last five sessions' average range of roughly 379 points. Volume of 427,973 was the lightest of the week and around 87% of the five-day average - a genuine consolidation session rather than distribution.

Context matters here. Thursday delivered a record close for the S&P 500 on cooler-than-expected inflation data and receding Fed rate-hike fears, and Thursday's NAS100 candle closed at 30,110.1 after tagging 30,167.6. Today the index simply refused to give any of it back: it printed a marginally higher high at 30,180 before drifting into the close. On the week the index added roughly +336 points (+1.13%) from last Friday's 29,716.3 - a third consecutive weekly gain.

The drag came from the macro side. July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, and the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment reading dropped to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, with respondents flagging inflation and business conditions. The VIX finished around 14.25, essentially unchanged, confirming a low-volatility regime rather than any risk-off impulse.

Under the bonnet the tape was split. AMD +6.50% led a memory and semiconductor bid alongside MU +2.30%, TXN +2.25% and ADI +2.16%, while post-earnings supply hammered AVGO -5.93% and AMAT -5.12% - both on the heaviest relative volume in the index (1.63x and 1.68x). Software gave back ground broadly, the worst-performing group on the day.

Bias: Bullish above 29,930. Structure, EMA stack and MACD all point higher; the only caution is how extended momentum has become versus the moving averages.



TREND ANALYSIS
EMA stack (daily): Close 30,052.8 | EMA20 29,293.8 | EMA50 29,090.1 | EMA200 27,069.9

This is a textbook bullish alignment - price above EMA20, EMA20 above EMA50, EMA50 comfortably above EMA200. There is no ambiguity in the classification: Bull (above all).

Extension: price sits +2.6% above the EMA20, +3.3% above the EMA50 and +11.0% above the EMA200. That is a stretched but not historically extreme reading. The EMA20 at 29,293.8 is roughly 760 points below spot, so a normal mean-reversion pullback would still leave the uptrend fully intact.

Structure: higher highs and higher lows since the 29,342.7 swing low on 7 August. The sequence runs 29,342.7 low, then 29,424.4, then 29,518.6, then 29,676.1, then 29,933 today - five consecutive higher lows. Thursday's 30,167.6 high and today's 30,180 form a shallow double-top shelf that is the immediate line in the sand.

Phase: Stage 2 advance (Weinstein), late-stage. The index is in the upper portion of its trend channel with momentum decelerating rather than reversing.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 59.58, with its own 14-period MA at 51.26. RSI is above its signal line and above 50 - constructive. Critically it is not overbought, which means there is headroom for another leg up before the classic exhaustion warning fires. There is no bearish divergence on the daily: today's marginally higher high at 30,180 was accompanied by an RSI that remains in the upper half of its range.

MACD: MACD line 220.23, signal line 37.92, histogram +182.31. That is a very wide positive separation and confirms the trend is being driven by real momentum, not drift. The flip side: a histogram this wide is itself a stretched condition, and mean reversion in MACD normally arrives via sideways chop rather than a crash.

Volume: 427,973 today against a five-day average near 489,900. Declining volume on a down day inside an uptrend is benign - it says sellers were not committed. The concern would be a heavy-volume close back below 29,930.

Breadth (40 NAS100 constituents scanned): 25 in bullish EMA structures, 11 bearish, 4 mixed. MACD is bullish on 31 of 40 names. 23 of 40 trade above their 60-day VWAP point of control. Breadth is healthy and is not the warning sign here.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 30,178 - classic pivot R1, and effectively today's high at 30,180. Two sessions have now failed within 13 points of this. Clearing it on volume is the bull trigger.
R2 30,302 - classic pivot R2 and the first genuinely unexplored territory.
R3 30,425 - classic pivot R3, plus the 30,500 round number just above as a magnet.

Support
S1 29,930 - classic pivot S1, sitting on today's low of 29,933. The pivotal near-term level; losing it opens the gap back toward Thursday's open.
S2 29,808 - classic pivot S2, reinforced by Wednesday's 29,702.2 close just below.
S3 29,684 - classic pivot S3, coinciding with the 29,676.1 low from Thursday.

Classic pivots for the next session: S2 29,808 · S1 29,930 · P 30,055 · R1 30,178 · R2 30,302
Round numbers: 30,000 (now immediate support, price closed just 53 points above it) · 30,500 · 29,500
Moving averages: EMA20 29,294 · EMA50 29,090 · EMA200 27,070



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses strict EMA classification: close measured against EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 individually. Every one of the 40 classifications below was verified programmatically against the raw close and EMA values with zero mismatches.

AAPL 305.93 (+0.22%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.7 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -11.2% off 52w high | Below POC
MSFT 495.40 (-0.30%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 70.9 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -10.5% off 52w high | Above POC
NVDA 225.16 (-0.06%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 63.0 Strong | MACD Bullish | -4.8% off 52w high | Above POC
AMZN 262.65 (-0.94%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -8.5% off 52w high | Above POC
META 589.85 (-0.86%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.6 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -25.9% off 52w high | Below POC
GOOGL 345.90 (-0.13%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 47.0 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -15.3% off 52w high | Below POC
AVGO 393.06 (-5.93%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 46.5 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -20.6% off 52w high | Below POC
TSLA 342.27 (+0.68%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 48.8 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -31.4% off 52w high | Below POC
COST 961.06 (-0.08%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 55.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.4% off 52w high | Above POC
NFLX 78.16 (-0.10%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 61.8 Strong | MACD Bullish | -38.3% off 52w high | Above POC
AMD 514.39 (+6.50%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.7 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.0% off 52w high | Above POC
ADBE 264.02 (-2.39%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 59.2 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -28.8% off 52w high | Above POC
QCOM 165.79 (+0.61%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.1 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -36.2% off 52w high | Below POC
TMUS 182.61 (-0.42%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 52.3 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -30.2% off 52w high | Above POC
LIN 482.74 (+0.95%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.1 Weak | MACD Bearish | -11.9% off 52w high | Below POC
ISRG 394.51 (-1.68%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 55.9 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -34.7% off 52w high | Above POC
INTU 345.66 (-3.53%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 63.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -52.1% off 52w high | Above POC
CSCO 111.68 (-1.58%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.7 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -14.3% off 52w high | Below POC
TXN 279.58 (+2.25%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 47.3 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -16.3% off 52w high | Below POC
AMAT 507.18 (-5.12%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.9 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -31.4% off 52w high | Below POC
BKNG 212.06 (-0.60%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 68.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -8.5% off 52w high | Above POC
PANW 384.27 (-2.96%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 65.5 Strong | MACD Bullish | -3.7% off 52w high | Above POC
MU 971.66 (+2.30%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 56.3 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -22.6% off 52w high | Above POC
LRCX 332.36 (-1.38%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.6 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -24.2% off 52w high | Below POC
KLAC 203.72 (-2.70%) | Mixed (>20 <50 >200) | RSI 49.1 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -33.7% off 52w high | Below POC
ADI 389.39 (+2.16%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.1 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.7% off 52w high | Below POC
REGN 803.48 (-0.31%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 77.3 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -2.1% off 52w high | Above POC
SNPS 421.50 (+2.37%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 56.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -32.7% off 52w high | Below POC
CDNS 324.82 (+0.32%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.3 Weak | MACD Bearish | -22.0% off 52w high | Below POC
MELI 1844.58 (+0.89%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 51.6 Bullish | MACD Bearish | -27.6% off 52w high | Above POC
CRWD 216.95 (-3.80%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.3 Strong | MACD Bullish | -4.6% off 52w high | Above POC
MAR 356.72 (+1.19%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.0 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -13.2% off 52w high | Below POC
ABNB 184.06 (-0.58%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 75.0 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -1.6% off 52w high | Above POC
MRVL 222.02 (-0.07%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.7 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -32.7% off 52w high | Below POC
DASH 217.02 (+0.35%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 68.4 Strong | MACD Bullish | -24.0% off 52w high | Above POC
FTNT 160.01 (-3.28%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.9 Bullish | MACD Bearish | -7.0% off 52w high | Above POC
CEG 282.50 (+1.39%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 62.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -31.5% off 52w high | Above POC
WDAY 198.68 (-3.76%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 69.2 Strong | MACD Bullish | -20.5% off 52w high | Above POC
PYPL 61.67 (+1.77%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 77.2 Overbought | MACD Bearish | -22.2% off 52w high | Above POC
ORLY 91.05 (-1.65%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 52.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -16.3% off 52w high | Above POC



SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech - 8 names, avg -0.19%, avg RSI 54.5
AAPL +0.22% | MSFT -0.30% | NVDA -0.06% | AMZN -0.94% | META -0.86% | GOOGL -0.13% | TSLA +0.68% | NFLX -0.10%
Split down the middle: 4 bullish, 3 bearish, 1 mixed. MSFT (RSI 70.9), NVDA (RSI 63.0) and AMZN hold full bullish EMA stacks. META is the standout weak link - below all three EMAs with a fully inverted stack (EMA20 594.95 under EMA50 601.62 under EMA200 625.58) and 25.9% off its 52-week high. AAPL and GOOGL have both lost their EMA20 and EMA50 while holding above the 200. The group is not leading.

Semiconductors - 10 names, avg -0.14%, avg RSI 50.7
AVGO -5.93% | AMD +6.50% | QCOM +0.61% | TXN +2.25% | AMAT -5.12% | MU +2.30% | LRCX -1.38% | KLAC -2.70% | ADI +2.16% | MRVL -0.07%
The most violent internal dispersion in the index: a 12.4-point spread between the best and worst name. Memory and analog were bid (AMD, MU, TXN, ADI) while equipment and the AVGO complex were dumped (AVGO, AMAT, KLAC). AVGO lost both its EMA20 and EMA50 in a single session on 1.63x relative volume; AMAT did the same on 1.68x and now sits 8.7% below its POC at 557.13. Five names bullish, four bearish, one mixed - this group is currently a stock-picker's tape, not a trend.

Software and Cloud - 9 names, avg -2.07%, avg RSI 56.3
ADBE -2.39% | INTU -3.53% | CSCO -1.58% | PANW -2.96% | SNPS +2.37% | CDNS +0.32% | CRWD -3.80% | FTNT -3.28% | WDAY -3.76%
The weakest sector on the day by a clear margin. Seven of nine fell, and the declines clustered in exactly the names that had run hardest - CRWD -3.80%, WDAY -3.76% (on 1.54x volume), INTU -3.53%, FTNT -3.28%. Importantly this reads as profit-taking, not breakdown: 6 of 9 remain in bullish EMA structures and the average RSI of 56.3 is still constructive. The exception is CDNS, which is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.3 and a bearish MACD - the sector's genuine laggard.

Consumer and Internet - 9 names, avg +0.10%, avg RSI 60.7
COST -0.08% | BKNG -0.60% | MELI +0.89% | MAR +1.19% | ABNB -0.58% | DASH +0.35% | PYPL +1.77% | ORLY -1.65% | TMUS -0.42%
The strongest group by structure: 7 of 9 bullish, average RSI 60.7 - the highest of any sector with meaningful size. Travel and payments lead, with ABNB (RSI 75.0, 1.6% off its 52-week high), BKNG (RSI 68.9), DASH (RSI 68.4) and PYPL (RSI 77.2). Notably, this strength persists despite today's soft retail sales and consumer sentiment prints - a divergence worth watching next week into Walmart and Target.

Healthcare and Biotech - 2 names, avg -0.99%, avg RSI 66.6
ISRG -1.68% | REGN -0.31%
Both bullish. REGN is the momentum standout of the entire index: RSI 77.3, MACD 38.67 against a 33.44 signal, price 2.15% off its 52-week high and 22% above its POC. ISRG holds above its EMA20 and EMA50 but remains 34.7% below its 52-week high and below the EMA200 - a recovery, not a leadership move.

Industrial and Other - 2 names, avg +1.17%, avg RSI 50.5
LIN +0.95% | CEG +1.39%
LIN is the single weakest chart in the index: below all three EMAs, RSI 38.1, bearish MACD, and only 24% above its 52-week low. CEG is the mirror image - above its EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI 62.9, though still 31.6% below its 52-week high and beneath the EMA200.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. ABNB - Long, 52-week high breakout
Entry: 187.30 · Stop: 180.60 · T1: 194.00 · T2: 200.70 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 184.06. Risk 6.70 per share, roughly 1.1x the 6.04 ATR. Trigger is a break of the 52-week high at 187.12.
Confluence: full bullish EMA stack (184.06 over EMA20 163.90 over EMA50 152.36 over EMA200 138.62), RSI 75.0, MACD 10.43 against a 7.06 signal, and price 23.5% above its POC at 148.99 - the market has decisively repriced this name higher and is holding the gain. Only 1.64% from a new 52-week high.
POC context: a long way above value, which is the signature of a trending breakout rather than a range trade. It also means there is no volume shelf beneath price until roughly 149 - the reason the stop must sit tight under 180.60 rather than trailing wide.
Caution: RSI 75 is already overbought. Size accordingly and do not chase without the break.

2. PANW - Long, pullback into an uptrend
Entry: 379.50 · Stop: 371.00 · T1: 394.10 · T2: 398.88 · R:R: 1:1.7 / 1:2.3
Close 384.27 after a -2.96% session from a 397.31 high. Risk 8.50, a little over half the 15.13 ATR.
Confluence: the entry zone stacks classic pivot S1 at 377.64 with Camarilla S3 at 379.74 - two independent support calculations landing within two points of each other. Structure remains fully bullish: 384.27 over EMA20 358.85 over EMA50 325.67 over EMA200 246.17. RSI 65.5 and MACD 17.98 versus a 14.52 signal. T2 is the 52-week high at 398.88, only 3.66% away.
POC context: price is 23.7% above the POC at 310.56. Value has migrated sharply higher over the last 60 sessions and dips have been bought.
Note: PANW reports on 1 September, so this setup has a clean two-week runway before event risk.

3. MU - Long, memory momentum breakout
Entry: 984.50 · Stop: 930.00 · T1: 1,039.00 · T2: 1,093.50 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 971.66, up 2.30%. Risk 54.50, only 0.75x the very wide 72.75 ATR - this is a high-volatility instrument and position size must reflect that.
Confluence: trigger is a break of today's 984.00 high, sitting just under classic R1 at 985.04. Full bullish stack (971.66 over EMA20 904.39 over EMA50 894.11 over EMA200 622.27). The MACD tells the real story: -4.79 against a -18.89 signal, a +14.10 histogram - momentum is inflecting hard from below the zero line, which is typically the earliest and highest-quality phase of a trend change. Stop at 930 sits below classic S3 at 929.44.
POC context: price is just 1.3% above the POC at 959.33 - price and value are in agreement here, which is exactly what you want beneath a breakout rather than an extended chase.
Sector tailwind: the memory complex was bid across the board today.

4. REGN - Long, momentum continuation
Entry: 807.00 · Stop: 786.80 · T1: 827.20 · T2: 847.40 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 803.48. Risk 20.20, almost exactly the 20.15 ATR. Trigger is a break of today's 806.54 high; T1 at 827.20 clears the 52-week high of 821.11.
Confluence: the strongest momentum profile in the index. RSI 77.3, MACD 38.67 over a 33.44 signal, full bullish stack (803.48 over EMA20 749.64 over EMA50 707.89 over EMA200 697.16), and only 2.15% from its 52-week high. Stop sits beneath classic pivot S2 at 786.89.
POC context: 22.3% above the POC at 656.75 - heavily extended from value.
Caution: RSI 77.3 plus that POC extension makes this the most stretched long on the list. Relative volume was only 0.48x today, so conviction behind the last leg was thin. Half size at most.

5. CDNS - Short, breakdown continuation
Entry: 319.40 · Stop: 327.90 · T1: 310.90 · T2: 302.40 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 324.82. Risk 8.50, roughly 0.68x the 12.53 ATR. Trigger is a break of today's 319.46 low, which also takes out classic pivot S1 at 320.56.
Confluence: one of only four names below all three EMAs, and the stack is inverted (EMA20 337.45 beneath EMA50 348.18). RSI 37.3 is the second-weakest in the index. MACD -9.23 against a -9.07 signal - bearish and still rolling over. Stop at 327.90 sits just above classic R1 at 327.97.
POC context: price is 11.2% below the POC at 365.78. Value sits well above spot, meaning every rally into the mid-330s meets trapped supply. This is the cleanest short structure available.
Balance: relative volume was only 1.04x and the name closed green today (+0.32%), so wait for the trigger rather than pre-empting it.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. AMD - Pivot bounce long
Entry: 504.50 · Stop: 496.50 · T1: 514.70 · T2: 524.97 · R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:2.6
Direction: Long. AMD gapped and ran +6.50% to close at 514.39, right on its 514.67 high. Classic pivot P sits at 504.09 and Camarilla S4 at 497.08. After a move that size the first controlled pullback into the pivot is the highest-probability entry - it lets the buyer in without chasing the close. Stop below Camarilla S4; T2 is classic R1 at 524.97.
Reasoning: full bullish EMA stack, price 1.5% above the POC at 506.77, and the POC itself sits inside the entry zone - price, value and pivot all converge around 504-507. If that shelf fails the thesis is simply wrong and the 8.00 risk is contained.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range long
Entry: 224.35 · Stop: 223.50 · T1: 225.45 · T2: 225.98 · R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:1.9
Direction: Long. NVDA closed at 225.16 inside a very narrow Camarilla band (S3 224.34 to R3 225.98) after a 224.50-227.49 session. Textbook Camarilla range conditions: buy S3, sell R3, stop beyond S4 at 223.52.
Reasoning: the daily trend is bullish (above all three EMAs, RSI 63.0, MACD 5.28 over 3.23) so the long side of the range is the favoured side. Price is 8.0% above its POC at 208.45. Only 4.81% from the 52-week high at 236.54 - a close above Camarilla R4 at 226.80 flips this into a breakout play rather than a range trade.

3. WDAY - Camarilla S3 bounce long
Entry: 195.20 · Stop: 191.40 · T1: 200.60 · T2: 206.10 · R:R: 1:1.4 / 1:2.9
Direction: Long. WDAY sold off -3.76% today on 1.54x relative volume from a 208.00 high to close at 198.68. Camarilla S3 sits at 195.11 with S4 at 191.54; classic pivot P is 200.56 and R1 is 206.12.
Reasoning: despite the sharp down day the daily structure is intact and strong - above all three EMAs, RSI 69.2, MACD 14.39 over an 11.15 signal. Price is 38% above its POC at 143.96. This is a momentum name having a profit-taking day, and the S3 level is where that kind of flush typically finds a bid. Earnings on 21 August is the hard deadline - be flat before it.

4. AAPL - Camarilla range short
Entry: 306.80 · Stop: 307.70 · T1: 305.35 · T2: 304.20 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.9
Direction: Short. AAPL barely moved (+0.22%, a 304.30-307.49 range) and closed at 305.93. Camarilla R3 is 306.81 with R4 at 307.68; S2 is 305.35 and S4 is 304.18.
Reasoning: the daily bias favours the short side. AAPL has lost its EMA20 (312.86) and EMA50 (309.09) while holding above the EMA200 (281.77), RSI is 43.7, and MACD is bearish at -2.46 against a +0.19 signal. Price is also below its POC at 306.73 - and note the POC sits almost exactly on Camarilla R3, so the fade level is confirmed by two independent methods. Risk is only 0.90 per share; relative volume of 0.53x means these Camarilla levels are likely to hold.

5. AMAT - Camarilla breakdown short
Entry: 499.90 · Stop: 505.00 · T1: 492.90 · T2: 483.19 · R:R: 1:1.4 / 1:3.3
Direction: Short. AMAT fell -5.12% on 1.68x relative volume - the heaviest in the index - closing at 507.18 near the lower end of a 497.10-523.00 range. Trigger is a break below Camarilla S3 at 500.06, targeting S4 at 492.94 then classic S2 at 483.19.
Reasoning: price has lost both the EMA20 (532.02) and EMA50 (528.71) and is 8.96% below its POC at 557.13 - value sits far above spot, so rallies meet supply. RSI 44.9 with no oversold cushion yet. Stop at 505.00 keeps risk to 5.10 against a 35.72 ATR, so this is a fraction of a normal position's volatility budget.
Caveat: a 5% single-session drop can mean-revert violently. Only take the trade on a confirmed break of 500.06, not in anticipation.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5
Camarilla, classic pivots, EMAs, POC, previous session high/low and 52-week extremes for the five heaviest-weighted names.

AAPL - 305.93 (+0.22%)
Cam: S4 304.18 · S3 305.05 · S1 305.64 || R1 306.22 · R3 306.81 · R4 307.68
Classic: S3 301.13 · S2 302.72 · S1 304.32 · P 305.91 · R1 307.51 · R2 309.10 · R3 310.70
EMA20 312.86 · EMA50 309.09 · EMA200 281.77 · POC 306.73
Prev H/L 307.49 / 304.30 · 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78 · ATR 7.86 · RV 0.53

MSFT - 495.40 (-0.30%)
Cam: S4 492.05 · S3 493.73 · S1 494.84 || R1 495.96 · R3 497.07 · R4 498.75
Classic: S3 486.79 · S2 490.35 · S1 492.88 · P 496.44 · R1 498.97 · R2 502.53 · R3 505.06
EMA20 462.02 · EMA50 431.31 · EMA200 429.37 · POC 412.49
Prev H/L 500.01 / 493.92 · 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20 · ATR 13.80 · RV 0.42

NVDA - 225.16 (-0.06%)
Cam: S4 223.52 · S3 224.34 · S1 224.89 || R1 225.43 · R3 225.98 · R4 226.80
Classic: S3 220.95 · S2 222.73 · S1 223.94 · P 225.72 · R1 226.93 · R2 228.71 · R3 229.92
EMA20 213.59 · EMA50 208.76 · EMA200 194.16 · POC 208.45
Prev H/L 227.49 / 224.50 · 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07 · ATR 6.93 · RV 0.62

AMZN - 262.65 (-0.94%)
Cam: S4 260.79 · S3 261.72 · S1 262.34 || R1 262.96 · R3 263.58 · R4 264.51
Classic: S3 258.05 · S2 260.24 · S1 261.44 · P 263.63 · R1 264.83 · R2 267.02 · R3 268.22
EMA20 260.65 · EMA50 253.46 · EMA200 239.37 · POC 249.44
Prev H/L 265.81 / 262.42 · 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00 · ATR 8.18 · RV 0.56

AMD - 514.39 (+6.50%)
Cam: S4 497.08 · S3 505.74 · S1 511.51 || R1 517.27 · R3 523.04 · R4 531.70
Classic: S3 462.03 · S2 472.62 · S1 493.50 · P 504.09 · R1 524.97 · R2 535.56 · R3 556.44
EMA20 494.11 · EMA50 486.91 · EMA200 358.14 · POC 506.77
Prev H/L 514.67 / 483.20 · 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.22 · ATR 32.35 · RV 0.89



BEARISH WARNINGS
Inverted EMA structures
META is the most damaged mega-cap chart in the index. The stack is completely inverted - EMA20 594.95 below EMA50 601.62 below EMA200 625.58 - with price at 589.85 beneath all three. It sits 25.92% below its 52-week high and only 13% above its 52-week low, and it trades below its POC at 600.66. MACD is technically bullish (-5.39 over a -5.60 signal) but both lines are below zero, which is a decelerating downtrend, not a reversal.

CDNS and LIN are the only other names below all three EMAs with weak RSI - 37.3 and 38.1 respectively, the two lowest readings in the index. Both carry bearish MACD crosses and both sit roughly 24% above their 52-week lows with substantial overhead supply. QCOM completes the below-all-EMAs group at 36.21% off its 52-week high.

Bearish MACD crosses - 9 of 40
AAPL, GOOGL, CSCO, LIN, CDNS, MELI, MAR, FTNT and PYPL all closed with MACD beneath signal. Two deserve particular attention:

PYPL - RSI 77.2 (the second most overbought name in the index) combined with a MACD of 2.80 against a 2.92 signal. Momentum is rolling over while price is still making highs. That combination of an overbought oscillator and a negative histogram is the classic early warning for a momentum name, and PYPL closed +1.77% today on 1.23x volume. The structure is still bullish - do not short it - but chasing here is poor risk.

MELI - full bullish price structure above the EMA20 and EMA50, yet MACD has crossed bearish at 19.27 versus a 28.03 signal, an -8.76 histogram. Price is 27.62% below its 52-week high and below its EMA200 at 1,872.73. Momentum is leaving before price has.

Heavy-volume distribution days
AVGO -5.93% on 1.63x volume and AMAT -5.12% on 1.68x volume were the two heaviest relative-volume sessions in the index, and both were declines. AVGO lost its EMA20 (403.09) and EMA50 (396.67) in a single session and closed below its POC at 400.31. AMAT is now 8.96% below its POC. When the two highest-volume prints of the day are both distribution in the same sub-sector, treat semiconductor equipment exposure with caution regardless of what AMD and MU did.

Overbought and extended
Four names carry RSI at or above 70: REGN 77.3, PYPL 77.2, ABNB 75.0, MSFT 70.9. None shows a confirmed bearish price/RSI divergence yet, but all four are extended from their EMA20 and all four should be traded with reduced size and defined stops rather than added to.

Names closest to their 52-week lows
TMUS (+10% off the low), ORLY (+10%), META (+13%), COST (+14%), TSLA (+15%) and SNPS (+15%) have the least cushion beneath them. TSLA is 31.39% below its 52-week high and below both its EMA50 (361.28) and EMA200 (384.68) despite closing +0.68% today.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Today's data - already in the price
July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months. University of Michigan preliminary August consumer sentiment came in at 51.0, down from 55.2 in July, with respondents citing inflation and business conditions. VIX closed near 14.25, essentially unchanged.

Week of 17-21 August - economic
Wed 19 Aug: FOMC minutes, 14:00 ET / 19:00 UK. The first full read on Committee thinking since inflation data cooled - the single biggest scheduled macro risk of the week for a momentum-driven index.
Thu 20 Aug: Initial jobless claims.
Fri 21 Aug: S&P Global flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

Week of 17-21 August - earnings relevant to the 40
Wed 19 Aug (before open): ADI - confirmed. ADI closed +2.16% today in a full bullish EMA stack with RSI 54.1. A read-through for the whole analog complex including TXN.
Thu 21 Aug (after close): WDAY - Q2. WDAY is the intraday setup above; be flat into the print. RSI 69.2, and the stock fell -3.76% today on elevated volume ahead of it.

Also reporting and relevant to sentiment rather than the index itself: Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart, Deere and Ross Stores on Thursday. Given today's soft retail sales and a 51.0 sentiment print, these results are the market's next real test of the consumer - and the Consumer and Internet group was the strongest sector in this index today, so any disappointment lands directly on the current leadership.

Beyond next week - the big ones
Tue 25 Aug: INTU Q4 FY26.
Wed 26 Aug: NVDA Q2 - the most consequential single print for this index. NVDA closed at 225.16, 4.81% off its 52-week high, in a full bullish stack.
Wed 26 Aug (after close): SNPS Q3 FY26 - confirmed by the company.
Thu 27 - Sat 29 Aug: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Grand Teton. Fed Chair Warsh's first as chair, which raises the event risk materially above a typical Jackson Hole.
Tue 1 Sep: PANW Q4 - confirmed, after close.



SUMMARY
The NAS100 spent Friday doing nothing, and doing it constructively. A 247-point range on the lightest volume of the week, 57 points lower, immediately beneath a two-day resistance shelf at 30,167-30,180, with the full EMA stack aligned bullish and RSI at 59.6 with room above. That is consolidation, not topping.

The bull case: 25 of 40 constituents in bullish EMA structures, MACD bullish on 31 of 40, 23 of 40 above their POC, a third consecutive weekly gain of +1.13%, and a VIX at 14.25 signalling no stress. A clean break above 30,180 opens 30,302 then 30,425.

The bear case: the MACD histogram at +182 is stretched, price is 2.6% above its EMA20, and today's macro was genuinely soft - a nine-month first decline in retail sales and consumer sentiment at 51.0. Software, the largest single group by count, was down 2.07% on average. A close below 29,930 on rising volume would be the first real crack.

How to trade it: the index is a buy-the-dip tape until 29,930 breaks, but the individual opportunities are cleaner than the index. Long the structural leaders on pullbacks (PANW, MU) or confirmed breakouts (ABNB), short the genuinely broken charts (CDNS) and the heavy-volume distribution (AMAT). Avoid adding to what is already overbought.

Report: 14 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Report - Thursday 13 August 2026
Data: Close 13 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 30,084.50 | Change: +341.90 (+1.15%) | Range: 29,757.62 - 30,168.05

Scanner data for all 40 components is current to the 13 Aug close. Both component blocks refreshed on time tonight.



MARKET OVERVIEW

The NASDAQ 100 closed at 30,084.50, up +341.90 points (+1.15%), its first close above the 30,000 handle. The index opened at 29,784.06, traded a 410-point range between 29,757.62 and 30,168.05, and closed in the upper third of that range - a constructive close, though it faded roughly 84 points off the session high.

Volume came in at 1.28bn shares, slightly below the 1.35bn average of the prior four sessions, so the breakout through 30,000 was not confirmed by an expansion in participation. That is the one blemish on an otherwise clean day.

Drivers: a softer inflation print took some pressure off the September rate path, and the market spent the session digesting PPI and jobless claims. The move was narrow rather than broad - software carried the index while networking hardware was hit. WDAY +17.78% and INTU +7.04% did the heavy lifting; CSCO -8.40% was the standout casualty after record revenue was overshadowed by gross margin compression (66.3% vs 68.4% a year ago) driven by AI hardware component costs, despite $4bn of hyperscaler AI orders in the quarter.

VIX held around 14.6 and effectively unchanged - complacency rather than conviction. With the index at a round-number breakout and volatility pinned this low, the risk of an air-pocket on any macro surprise is elevated.

Bias: Bullish above 30,003 (the daily pivot). The trend structure is unambiguous and 25 of the 40 components sit above all three EMAs. But this is a low-volume breakout into a round number with a fading close, so treat 30,000-30,003 as the line that decides whether Friday extends or retraces.



TREND STRUCTURE

EMA stack: Close 30,084.50 > EMA20 29,493.44 > EMA50 29,015.32 > EMA200 26,944.95.

That is a textbook bullish alignment - price above all three, and the EMAs stacked in the correct order with no compression. The index sits 2.0% above its 20 EMA, 3.7% above the 50 EMA, and 11.7% above the 200 EMA.

Structure: a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 29,123 low of 6 Aug marked the last swing low; the index has added roughly 960 points off that level in six sessions. The two-session pause at 29,621 and 29,525 (10-11 Aug) resolved higher, which is the behaviour of a market in control.

Phase: Stage 2 advance. The 11.7% extension above the 200 EMA is getting stretched but is not yet at the sort of level that historically forces a mean-reversion event. The nearest meaningful support on any pullback is the 20 EMA at 29,493 - which happens to sit right on top of the classic S2 pivot at 29,592 and the 29,525 swing low.



INDICATORS

RSI(14): 60.14 - in the strong-but-not-extended zone. The index made a new closing high today while RSI sits at 60, comfortably below the 70 overbought threshold. There is no bearish divergence on the index itself: price highs and momentum highs are advancing together. Room to run before momentum becomes a constraint.

MACD: MACD line +184.85 above signal +0.80, histogram +184.05 and expanding. A fresh bullish crossover with the histogram widening sharply - momentum is accelerating, not decaying. This is the single most bullish reading on the board.

Volume: 1.28bn vs a 1.35bn four-day average. Down-tick on a breakout day. Not damning, but it means the 30,000 break has not yet been validated by institutional participation. Watch Friday's volume on any hold above 30,003.

Internal breadth (the 40 components): 25 Bull, 10 Bear, 5 Mixed. 27 of 40 closed green. Advancers led decliners comfortably, but the size of the moves was concentrated - WDAY alone contributed more than the next three gainers combined.



KEY INDEX LEVELS

Resistance:
R1 30,249.16 - first classic pivot resistance, roughly 165 points above spot
R2 30,413.82 - pivot R2, aligns with the 30,400 round number
R3 30,659.59 - pivot R3, the stretch target if Friday trends

Support:
S1 29,838.73 - first classic pivot support, and the level that protects the 30k break
S2 29,592.96 - confluence with the 29,525 swing low and close to the 20 EMA
S3 29,428.30 - below this the 20 EMA (29,493) has already failed and the short-term trend is in question

Classic pivots (from today's H/L/C): S2 29,592.96 - S1 29,838.73 - P 30,003.39 - R1 30,249.16 - R2 30,413.82

Round numbers: 30,000 (now pivotal), 30,200, 30,500. The 30,000 level and the daily pivot at 30,003 are effectively the same line - that is where the day is decided.

Moving averages: EMA20 29,493.44 - EMA50 29,015.32 - EMA200 26,944.95.



SECTOR READ

Mega-cap Tech - split. MSFT, AMZN, NVDA and AVGO are Bull-above-all; AAPL, GOOGL and META are all below their 20 and 50 EMAs. The generals are not marching together. NVDA is the closest to a 52-week high at -4.8% and MSFT is overbought at RSI 71.8. AAPL below both short EMAs with a bearish MACD is the group's weak link.

Semiconductors - the laggard group. Only MU, LRCX, KLAC and MRVL are Bull-above-all, and three of those carry bearish MACD readings, meaning the EMA position is running ahead of momentum. AMD, TXN and AMAT all sit below their 20 EMA; QCOM is Bear-below-all with RSI 46.2 and price beneath all three EMAs. AMAT's -2.48% on 1.4x relative volume is the sector's clearest distribution signal. Semis are not confirming the index high.

Software / Cloud - the leadership group and the reason the index closed green. WDAY, INTU, ADBE, PANW, CRWD, FTNT and PYPL all advanced, several materially. PANW and CRWD are within 1% of 52-week highs with bullish MACD. The exceptions are CSCO (down 8.4%, now below its 20 EMA) and CDNS/SNPS, both of which remain structurally broken.

Consumer / Internet - improving. ABNB (RSI 76.6, 1.1% off its 52-week high), BKNG, DASH and ORLY are all Bull-above-all. NFLX jumped +5.43% and reclaimed its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains well below the 200. MAR is the group's weakest at Bear-below-20/50 with RSI 41.7.

Healthcare / Biotech - REGN is the strongest single name on the board by momentum: Bull-above-all, RSI 78.8, MACD firmly bullish, 1.8% from its 52-week high. ISRG is above its 20 EMA but still beneath the 200 - a recovery, not yet a trend.

Industrial / Other - the weakest corner. LIN is Bear-below-all with RSI 33.8, the lowest reading in the index. CEG is above its 20 and 50 EMAs but below the 200 and closed flat.

Net read: leadership has rotated decisively into software and away from semiconductors. That is a meaningful change in character. A NASDAQ 100 breakout that semis do not confirm has historically been the less durable kind.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40

Trend is a strict close-vs-EMA classification. All 40 were verified programmatically against close vs EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 305.26 +1.00% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 43.0 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -11.4% from 52w high - below POC
MSFT 496.88 +0.90% - Bull (above all) - RSI 71.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -10.3% from 52w high - above POC
GOOGL 346.36 +0.82% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 47.3 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -15.2% from 52w high - below POC
AMZN 265.13 -0.80% - Bull (above all) - RSI 55.4 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -7.7% from 52w high - above POC
META 594.97 +2.78% - Bear (below all) - RSI 49.2 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -25.3% from 52w high - below POC
TSLA 339.96 +3.80% - Mixed (>20 <50 <200) - RSI 47.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -31.8% from 52w high - below POC
NVDA 225.30 +0.54% - Bull (above all) - RSI 63.2 Strong - MACD Bullish - -4.8% from 52w high - above POC
AVGO 417.82 +0.43% - Bull (above all) - RSI 59.1 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -15.6% from 52w high - above POC

Semiconductors
AMD 483.01 +0.02% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 47.4 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -17.4% from 52w high - below POC
QCOM 164.79 +1.05% - Bear (below all) - RSI 46.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -36.6% from 52w high - below POC
TXN 273.43 -1.14% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 42.9 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -18.1% from 52w high - below POC
AMAT 534.54 -2.48% - Mixed (<20 >50 >200) - RSI 49.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -27.7% from 52w high - below POC
MU 949.83 +4.23% - Bull (above all) - RSI 54.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -24.3% from 52w high - below POC
LRCX 337.01 +3.34% - Bull (above all) - RSI 56.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -23.1% from 52w high - below POC
KLAC 209.37 +0.54% - Bull (above all) - RSI 52.0 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -31.9% from 52w high - below POC
ADI 381.17 -0.85% - Mixed (>20 <50 >200) - RSI 49.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -14.5% from 52w high - below POC
MRVL 222.18 +2.35% - Bull (above all) - RSI 53.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -32.6% from 52w high - below POC

Software / Cloud
ADBE 270.49 +4.54% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 63.6 Strong - MACD Bullish - -27.1% from 52w high - above POC
INTU 358.29 +7.04% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 72.0 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -50.3% from 52w high - above POC
CSCO 113.47 -8.40% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 44.1 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -13.0% from 52w high - below POC
PANW 396.00 +2.32% - Bull (above all) - RSI 72.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -0.7% from 52w high - above POC
SNPS 411.75 -0.14% - Mixed (>20 <50 <200) - RSI 51.4 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -34.5% from 52w high - below POC
CDNS 323.77 +0.20% - Bear (below all) - RSI 36.3 Weak - MACD Bearish - -22.3% from 52w high - below POC
CRWD 225.53 +1.69% - Bull (above all) - RSI 69.8 Strong - MACD Bullish - -0.6% from 52w high - above POC
FTNT 165.44 +2.86% - Bull (above all) - RSI 59.0 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -3.9% from 52w high - above POC
WDAY 206.45 +17.78% - Bull (above all) - RSI 75.2 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -17.4% from 52w high - above POC
PYPL 60.59 +2.35% - Bull (above all) - RSI 74.8 Overbought - MACD Bearish - -23.5% from 52w high - above POC

Consumer / Internet
COST 961.85 +1.29% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 55.9 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -12.3% from 52w high - above POC
NFLX 78.24 +5.43% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 62.0 Strong - MACD Bullish - -38.3% from 52w high - above POC
BKNG 213.34 +0.51% - Bull (above all) - RSI 70.9 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -8.0% from 52w high - above POC
MELI 1,828.25 +0.00% - Mixed (<20 >50 <200) - RSI 49.8 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -28.3% from 52w high - above POC
MAR 352.53 -0.58% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 41.7 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -14.2% from 52w high - below POC
ABNB 185.13 +2.80% - Bull (above all) - RSI 76.6 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -1.1% from 52w high - above POC
DASH 216.26 +1.77% - Bull (above all) - RSI 67.9 Strong - MACD Bullish - -24.3% from 52w high - above POC
ORLY 92.58 +0.58% - Bull (above all) - RSI 57.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -14.8% from 52w high - above POC
TMUS 183.38 +3.53% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 53.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -29.9% from 52w high - above POC

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG 401.27 +0.00% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 59.6 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -33.6% from 52w high - above POC
REGN 805.97 +1.00% - Bull (above all) - RSI 78.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -1.8% from 52w high - above POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 478.20 -0.26% - Bear (below all) - RSI 33.8 Weak - MACD Bearish - -12.8% from 52w high - below POC
CEG 278.64 -0.01% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 60.4 Strong - MACD Bullish - -32.5% from 52w high - above POC



Note: a handful of 52-week lows in the scanner feed look split-unadjusted (MU, MRVL, AMAT, CRWD, AMD), so distance-from-52w-low is unreliable for those names. Distance from 52-week high is used throughout instead.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. PANW - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 399.50 · Stop: 384.00 · T1: 422.00 · T2: 444.50 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.9
Closed 396.00, literally at its 52-week high of 398.88. Bull-above-all with EMA20 356.18, EMA50 323.28, EMA200 244.78 - a wide, correctly ordered stack. MACD 17.95 over signal 13.66. RSI 72.8 is overbought, which is the risk, but overbought RSI in a Stage 2 leader is a continuation signal more often than a reversal one. Stop sits under today's 387.35 low, roughly 1 ATR (15.03) from entry. Price is 28% above its 60-day POC at 308.21 - no volume shelf to fall back on, so respect the stop.

2. CRWD - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 227.50 · Stop: 219.90 · T1: 236.60 · T2: 245.80 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.4
Closed 225.53, 0.6% off the 226.90 52-week high, up +1.69%. Bull-above-all with a very wide stack (EMA200 at 146.74 - price is 54% above it). MACD 10.04 over 7.35 and expanding. RSI 69.8, just under overbought. Stop is tucked under today's 220.23 low, tighter than 1 ATR (9.12), which is what makes the R:R work. POC 182.53 is far below - same caveat as PANW.

3. REGN - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 822.00 · Stop: 800.00 · T1: 853.00 · T2: 884.00 · R:R: 1.4 / 2.8
The strongest momentum reading in the index: RSI 78.8, MACD 38.80 over 32.13, Bull-above-all, 1.8% from the 821.11 high. Entry is a stop-buy through that high. Stop sits below Camarilla S3 at 800.11 and just over 1 ATR (20.62) away. The obvious risk is that RSI 78.8 is genuinely extended - size this smaller than the other two, and do not chase if it gaps through 830.

4. CDNS - Short on trend breakdown
Entry: 320.50 · Stop: 331.00 · T1: 307.60 · T2: 294.70 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.5
Bear-below-all: close 323.77 against EMA20 338.78, EMA50 349.13, EMA200 335.28. RSI 36.3 is the second-weakest in the index and MACD is negative at -9.25. Price is 13% below its 60-day POC of 366.22, so there is no volume support overhead holding it up - the acceptance has already moved lower. Entry triggers on a break of pivot S1 (320.49); stop sits above today's 328.30 high. Targets are 1 and 2 ATR (12.92).

5. LIN - Short on continued weakness
Entry: 475.50 · Stop: 484.50 · T1: 465.00 · T2: 454.00 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.4
The weakest RSI in the index at 33.8, Bear-below-all (EMA20 496.08, EMA50 504.11, EMA200 488.29), MACD -8.83. Closed -0.26% on a full 1.0x relative volume day - steady distribution rather than panic. POC 509.47 is 6.5% overhead. Entry is a break of today's 475.75 low; stop above today's 483.29 high. The one caution: RSI in the low 30s means a bounce is possible before continuation, so wait for the level to actually break.

Watch, no entry yet - WDAY. Up +17.78% on 3.08x relative volume, but it printed a 227.49 high and closed at 206.45 - a 21-point rejection off the highs on the biggest volume day of the year. That is a wide-range distribution candle, not a clean breakout. Let it settle for two or three sessions and look for a base above 200 before touching it.



INTRADAY SETUPS

1. NAS100 - Pivot hold long
Direction: Long · Entry: above 30,003.39 · Stop: 29,838.73 · T1: 30,249.16 · T2: 30,413.82 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.5
The daily pivot at 30,003.39 and the 30,000 round number are the same line. If the index opens above it and holds on a retest, the classic pivot ladder gives R1 then R2 as targets with S1 as the invalidation. Confluence: pivot + round number + yesterday's breakout level all stacked together.

2. NAS100 - Pivot failure short
Direction: Short · Entry: below 29,838.73 · Stop: 30,003.39 · T1: 29,592.96 · T2: 29,493.00 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.1
The mirror trade. A loss of S1 means the 30,000 break failed on the first attempt, which on a low-volume breakout is the higher-probability failure mode. T1 is pivot S2; T2 is the EMA20 at 29,493.44, which is where the first real buying should appear. Do not hold shorts through the 20 EMA.

3. NVDA - Camarilla range fade long
Direction: Long · Entry: 224.33 · Stop: 222.90 · T1: 225.95 · T2: 226.27 · R:R: 1.1 / 1.4
NVDA printed a very narrow 3.52-point range on 0.79x relative volume - textbook Camarilla range conditions. Cam: S4 223.36 · S3 224.33 · S1 224.98 || R1 225.62 · R3 226.27 · R4 227.24. Buy the S3 tag, stop under S4, target R2/R3. Bull-above-all with EMA20 212.37 backs the long side. If it opens outside the S4-R4 band, this setup is void - trade the breakout instead.

4. CSCO - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 112.15 · Stop: 113.60 · T1: 110.40 · T2: 109.16 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.1
Post-earnings gap-down of -8.40% on 2.77x relative volume - the highest conviction selling in the index. Now below its EMA20 (117.80) and, critically, below its 60-day POC of 117.97, so the volume shelf has flipped from support to resistance. Cam: S4 111.01 · S3 112.24 · S1 113.06 || R1 113.88 · R3 114.70 · R4 115.93. Entry on a break of cam S3; T2 is pivot S2. Gap-downs of this size often see a day-two continuation before any bounce.

5. AMAT - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 525.50 · Stop: 537.50 · T1: 511.39 · T2: 491.00 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.9
Closed -2.48% on 1.40x relative volume - the only semi with genuine distribution volume today, and it did it while the index broke 30,000. Close 534.54 sits fractionally below EMA20 (534.63) and below POC 555.96. Cam S3 is 525.75; entry on the break. Stop sits above cam R1 537.47. Targets are pivot S2 and S3. Wide ATR (35.59) means size this position small.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

NVDA - 225.30
Cam: S4 223.36 · S3 224.33 · S1 224.98 || R1 225.62 · R3 226.27 · R4 227.24
Classic: S3 220.08 · S2 221.89 · S1 223.60 · P 225.41 · R1 227.12 · R2 228.93 · R3 230.64
EMAs: 20 212.37 · 50 208.09 · 200 193.85 | POC 208.51 | Prev H/L 227.23 / 223.71 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - 496.88
Cam: S4 492.30 · S3 494.59 · S1 496.12 || R1 497.64 · R3 499.17 · R4 501.46
Classic: S3 484.48 · S2 488.75 · S1 492.81 · P 497.08 · R1 501.14 · R2 505.41 · R3 509.47
EMAs: 20 458.51 · 50 428.70 · 200 428.71 | POC 412.08 | Prev H/L 501.34 / 493.01 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - 305.26
Cam: S4 303.09 · S3 304.17 · S1 304.90 || R1 305.62 · R3 306.35 · R4 307.43
Classic: S3 298.92 · S2 300.49 · S1 302.87 · P 304.44 · R1 306.82 · R2 308.39 · R3 310.77
EMAs: 20 313.59 · 50 309.22 · 200 281.53 | POC 306.63 | Prev H/L 306.00 / 302.05 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78

AMZN - 265.13
Cam: S4 262.45 · S3 263.79 · S1 264.68 || R1 265.58 · R3 266.47 · R4 267.81
Classic: S3 258.50 · S2 261.60 · S1 263.37 · P 266.47 · R1 268.24 · R2 271.34 · R3 273.11
EMAs: 20 260.44 · 50 253.08 · 200 239.14 | POC 249.44 | Prev H/L 269.58 / 264.71 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00

WDAY - 206.45
Cam: S4 177.36 · S3 191.91 · S1 201.60 || R1 211.30 · R3 220.99 · R4 235.54
Classic: S3 125.31 · S2 149.96 · S1 178.20 · P 202.85 · R1 231.09 · R2 255.74 · R3 283.98
EMAs: 20 166.27 · 50 150.83 · 200 162.22 | POC 142.36 | Prev H/L 227.49 / 174.60 | 52w H/L 249.85 / 110.36



BEARISH WARNINGS

Four components are Bear-below-all - price beneath every EMA: LIN (RSI 33., CDNS (RSI 36.3), META (RSI 49.2) and QCOM (RSI 46.2). META is the notable one: a mega-cap 25.3% off its 52-week high with a flat-to-negative MACD, closing green +2.78% but still below all three EMAs. A bounce inside a downtrend until proven otherwise.

Six more sit below both the 20 and 50 EMA while holding the 200: AAPL, AMD, CSCO, GOOGL, MAR and TXN. AAPL and GOOGL together are a meaningful drag - two of the four largest weights are in short-term downtrends while the index prints a record close.

Overbought RSI cluster: REGN 78.8, ABNB 76.6, WDAY 75.2, PYPL 74.8, PANW 72.8, INTU 72.0, MSFT 71.8. Seven names above 70. None currently show a bearish price/momentum divergence - all made new price highs alongside new RSI highs - but this is a crowded top end and a broad-market pullback would hit these hardest.

Semis not confirming: MU, LRCX, KLAC and MRVL are all Bull-above-all yet carry negative MACD readings. That combination - price above the EMAs while momentum is still below zero - means the EMA position is a lagging artefact of an earlier move, not evidence of current strength. AMAT's high-volume decline reinforces the point.

Closest to 52-week lows: TMUS is 10.7% above its low of 165.66 despite gaining +3.53% today, and SNPS is 12.5% above its 366.00 low. Both are Mixed or Bearish on trend.

No death crosses were triggered today. Worth flagging the opposite: MSFT's EMA50 (428.70) and EMA200 (428.71) are effectively identical - a golden cross forming right now on the second-largest weight in the index.

Index-level caution: the 30,000 break came on below-average volume with the close 84 points off the high, and the VIX at 14.6 means there is essentially no fear priced in. Low-volume breakouts into round numbers with complacent volatility are the setup for a sharp reversal if Friday's data disappoints.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Friday 14 August 2026 (times UK):
13:30 - Retail Sales (Jul), est +0.3% MoM vs +0.2% prior
13:30 - Core Retail Sales ex-Autos (Jul), est +0.2% vs -0.2% prior
13:30 - Import Price Index, est +0.1% vs +0.3% prior
14:15 - Industrial Production, est +0.2% vs +0.1% prior
14:15 - Capacity Utilisation, est 76.3% vs 76.1% prior
15:00 - Business Inventories, est +0.2% vs +0.3% prior
15:00 - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug prelim), est 54.1 vs 55.2 prior
15:00 - UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations, est 4.2% unchanged

Retail sales is the session's swing factor. A strong print supports the 30,000 hold; a soft print combined with sentiment falling to 54.1 would put the consumer names - AMZN, COST, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY - under immediate pressure.

Component earnings: no NASDAQ 100 constituents are scheduled to report on Friday. CSCO closed out the meaningful tech reporting on Wednesday evening, and today's -8.40% reaction is the read-through the market is still digesting. The next earnings cluster is the following week.

Fed: no scheduled FOMC speakers on Friday. The market's rate expectations will move on the data alone.



Report: 13 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 12 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,742.60 | Change: +217.13 (+0.74%) | Range: 29,715.88 - 29,881.50



MARKET OVERVIEW

The NAS100 closed at 29,742.60, up 217.13 points (+0.74%), after gapping open at 29,875.18 on the back of a soft July CPI print and then spending the entire session giving it back. The high of 29,881.50 was set early; the low of 29,715.88 came late. The close sits in the bottom 16% of the day's range - a green candle with a red character.

The 165.62-point range was the tightest of the last six sessions, narrower even than Monday's compression day. Volume was 1.40bn shares against a 252-day average near 1.32bn (1.06x), so there was slightly more participation than of late, but it was concentrated rather than broad.

Three drivers set the tape. First, July CPI came in benign: headline +0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, core +0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year - the softest core reading in five months. That removed the rate-hike tail risk that had been capping the index since the payrolls shock. Second, a violent rotation back into semiconductors, the exact reverse of Monday's move: the AI-infrastructure complex re-rated hard after CoreWeave and Super Micro results, with Temasek reported to have taken fresh stakes in SK Hynix and Samsung. MU +4.92%, LRCX +4.72%, AMAT +4.29%, KLAC +3.88%, NVDA +3.03%. Third, and this is the problem, the mega-caps went the other way. All five of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META and GOOGL closed red, averaging -1.68%.

Breadth tells the real story. 18 advancers, 22 decliners, and the average component change across all 40 names was -0.02% - flat. The index rose 0.74% on the strength of a handful of semiconductor weights while the median stock did nothing. That is a cap-weighted rally, not a market-wide one.

VIX: 14.54, down from a 15.28 open and well below Monday's 15.45. Risk pricing is as relaxed as it has been in weeks.

Bias: Constructive, but with less conviction than the headline number implies. Price remains 397 points above the 20 EMA with a fully stacked bullish alignment, and the index is only 3.31% below its 52-week high of 30,762.20. But the fade off the open, the flat equal-weighted breadth, and a mega-cap bloc that could not participate on the best macro news of the month are all things to note rather than ignore. The bulls got their catalyst and closed near the lows.



TREND STRUCTURE

EMA stack: Close 29,742.60 > 20 EMA 29,345.68 > 50 EMA 28,971.68 > 200 EMA 26,913.40. Textbook bullish alignment, fully stacked, all three rising.

Distance from the means: +396.92 points (+1.35%) above the 20 EMA, +770.92 (+2.66%) above the 50 EMA, +2,829.20 (+10.51%) above the 200 EMA. That is a healthy, not stretched, position - close enough to the 20 EMA that a two-day pullback would test it, far enough above the 200 EMA that the primary trend is not in question.

Structure: The last six closes read 29,487.79, 29,373.33, 29,722.30, 29,621.80, 29,525.48, 29,742.60. Today's is the highest of the six, so the sequence of higher lows off the 29,123 swing low remains intact and the index has made a fresh short-term closing high. What it has not done is take out 29,881.50 on a closing basis, and it has now failed twice in the 29,780-29,950 band.

Phase: Uptrend in consolidation. The index is coiling in a 750-point box between roughly 29,100 and 29,950, beneath the 30,000 handle, inside a larger uptrend. Nothing here is broken; nothing here is accelerating either.



MOMENTUM AND VOLUME

RSI(14): 57.08. Neutral-constructive. Comfortably above the 50 line, nowhere near overbought. RSI made a higher high alongside price today, so there is no negative divergence at the index level - the divergence, such as it is, lives in the internals rather than the oscillator.

MACD: +126.89 versus signal -45.22, histogram +172.11. This is the most bullish thing on the chart. MACD has crossed above its signal line while the signal line itself is still below zero, which is the early-stage configuration of a momentum turn rather than a late-stage one. Histogram expansion of +172 confirms the cross has force behind it.

Volume: 1.40bn shares, 1.06x the 252-day average and the highest of the last four sessions. Rising volume on an up day is normally confirmation. Here it needs an asterisk: the volume showed up in semiconductors and in the mega-caps that were being sold, not evenly across the tape. The Visible Range Volume Profile split reads 3.11bn up-volume against 3.63bn down-volume, so distribution still has the edge over the visible range.

Component relative volume: only five of the 40 names traded above 1.0x their own average - MELI 1.53x, CSCO 1.34x, ABNB 1.19x, LIN 1.05x and CEG 1.01x. Three of those five closed red. Institutional urgency remains conspicuously absent.



KEY INDEX LEVELS

Classic pivots for Thursday 13 August (from today's 29,881.50 / 29,715.88 / 29,742.60):
R3 30,009.73 · R2 29,945.61 · R1 29,844.11 · P 29,780.00 · S1 29,678.49 · S2 29,614.38 · S3 29,512.87

Resistance:
29,844 - pivot R1, and the shelf the index has stalled at twice this week.
29,881 - today's high. A close above this is the first genuinely bullish signal since the pullback began.
29,946 to 30,010 - pivot R2 and R3 bracketing the 30,000 round number. This is the magnet and the wall in the same place.

Support:
29,716 - today's low and the immediate line in the sand.
29,678 to 29,614 - pivot S1 and S2. Losing S2 puts the CPI gap fully back in the tin.
29,513 to 29,525 - pivot S3 stacked on Tuesday's close. Strong confluence support.
29,346 - the 20 EMA. The first structural test of the uptrend, 1.3% below spot.
28,972 - the 50 EMA. Would need a 2.6% drawdown to reach.

Round numbers: 30,000 above, 29,500 immediately below (and it doubles as pivot S3 confluence), 29,000 as the line where the trend argument actually changes.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40

Data: Wednesday 12 August close - the scanner is fully current today, index and components on the same session. Trend uses STRICT close-versus-EMA rules. All 40 classifications machine-verified against close vs EMA20/EMA50/EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Legend: Ticker · Close · Day% · Trend · RSI (zone) · MACD · % from 52w high · POC

MU 911.29 · +4.92% · Bull above all · 51.1 Bullish · Bullish · -27.4% · Below POC
LRCX 326.11 · +4.72% · Bull above all · 53.2 Bullish · Bullish · -25.6% · Below POC
AMAT 548.15 · +4.29% · Bull above all · 52.0 Bullish · Bullish · -25.9% · Below POC
KLAC 208.25 · +3.88% · Bull above all · 51.5 Bullish · Bullish · -32.2% · Below POC
NVDA 224.09 · +3.03% · Bull above all · 62.4 Strong · Bullish · -5.3% · Above POC
CSCO 123.88 · +2.84% · Bull above all · 63.0 Strong · Bullish · -5.0% · Above POC
MRVL 217.08 · +2.25% · Bull above all · 51.9 Bullish · Bullish · -34.2% · Below POC
AMD 482.93 · +1.82% · Bear below 20/50 · 47.4 Neutral · Bearish · -17.4% · Below POC
MAR 354.58 · +1.46% · Bear below 20/50 · 42.8 Neutral · Bearish · -13.7% · Below POC
PANW 387.01 · +0.84% · Bull above all · 70.4 Overbought · Bullish · -0.6% · Above POC
COST 949.58 · +0.56% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 50.6 Bullish · Bullish · -13.4% · Below POC
SNPS 412.32 · +0.34% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 51.7 Bullish · Bullish · -34.4% · Below POC
PYPL 59.20 · +0.34% · Bull above all · 71.2 Overbought · Bearish · -25.3% · Above POC
QCOM 163.07 · +0.24% · Bear below all · 44.8 Neutral · Bullish · -37.3% · Below POC
DASH 212.49 · +0.23% · Bull above all · 65.7 Strong · Bullish · -25.6% · Above POC
REGN 797.99 · +0.12% · Bull above all · 77.5 Overbought · Bullish · -2.8% · Above POC
CEG 278.68 · +0.11% · Bull above 20/50 · 60.4 Strong · Bullish · -32.5% · Above POC
ISRG 401.27 · +0.01% · Bull above 20/50 · 59.6 Bullish · Bullish · -33.6% · Above POC
AVGO 416.05 · -0.01% · Bull above all · 58.3 Bullish · Bullish · -15.9% · Above POC
CRWD 221.78 · -0.05% · Bull above all · 68.0 Strong · Bullish · -2.3% · Above POC
GOOGL 343.54 · -0.08% · Bear below 20/50 · 45.7 Neutral · Bullish · -15.9% · Below POC
ADI 384.43 · -0.23% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 · 51.5 Bullish · Bullish · -13.8% · Below POC
BKNG 212.26 · -0.29% · Bull above all · 70.2 Overbought · Bullish · -8.4% · Above POC
INTU 334.71 · -0.51% · Bull above 20/50 · 64.1 Strong · Bullish · -53.6% · Above POC
ORLY 92.05 · -0.56% · Bull above all · 56.2 Bullish · Bullish · -15.3% · Above POC
FTNT 160.84 · -0.65% · Bull above all · 54.0 Bullish · Bearish · -6.5% · Above POC
NFLX 74.21 · -0.78% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 51.3 Bullish · Bullish · -41.4% · Below POC
TMUS 177.13 · -0.82% · Bear below all · 46.5 Neutral · Bearish · -32.3% · Below POC
AAPL 302.25 · -0.87% · Bear below 20/50 · 40.2 Neutral · Bearish · -12.3% · Below POC
CDNS 323.13 · -1.34% · Bear below all · 35.8 Weak · Bearish · -22.5% · Below POC
TSLA 327.51 · -1.59% · Bear below all · 41.4 Neutral · Bullish · -34.3% · Below POC
TXN 276.59 · -1.65% · Bear below 20/50 · 44.7 Neutral · Bullish · -17.2% · Below POC
AMZN 267.28 · -1.83% · Bull above all · 57.1 Bullish · Bullish · -6.9% · Above POC
ADBE 258.75 · -1.88% · Bull above 20/50 · 58.4 Bullish · Bullish · -30.2% · Above POC
MSFT 492.43 · -2.26% · Bull above all · 70.8 Overbought · Bullish · -11.1% · Above POC
LIN 479.43 · -2.26% · Bear below all · 34.4 Weak · Bearish · -12.5% · Below POC
ABNB 180.10 · -2.64% · Bull above all · 74.2 Overbought · Bullish · -3.8% · Above POC
WDAY 175.29 · -3.30% · Bull above all · 63.5 Strong · Bullish · -29.8% · Above POC
META 578.85 · -3.38% · Bear below all · 43.9 Neutral · Bearish · -27.3% · Below POC
MELI 1,828.29 · -5.76% · Mixed: below 20, above 50, below 200 · 49.8 Neutral · Bearish · -28.3% · Above POC



SECTOR BREAKDOWN

Semiconductors (11 names) - average +2.11%
MU +4.9 · LRCX +4.7 · AMAT +4.3 · KLAC +3.9 · NVDA +3.0 · MRVL +2.2 · AMD +1.8 · QCOM +0.2 · AVGO -0.0 · ADI -0.2 · TXN -1.6
The engine room, and a complete reversal of Monday when all eleven closed red. Seven of the eleven now carry a full bull stack. The catch: the four biggest gainers (MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC) are all still below their 60-day POC and all still sit 25-32% below their 52-week highs. This is a recovery off a deep hole, not a fresh leg from strength. Their RSI readings cluster at 51-53, which is exactly what you would expect from a first bounce.

Mega-cap Tech (5 names) - average -1.68%
GOOGL -0.1 · AAPL -0.9 · AMZN -1.8 · MSFT -2.3 · META -3.4
Five for five red on the best inflation print in five months. AAPL and GOOGL are both below their 20 and 50 EMAs, META below all three. Only AMZN and MSFT hold full bull stacks, and MSFT did so while shedding 2.26% from an RSI of 70.8. This bloc is roughly 40% of the index by weight. It cannot stay a drag indefinitely without the index noticing.

Consumer/Internet (9 names) - average -1.04%
MAR +1.5 · COST +0.6 · DASH +0.2 · BKNG -0.3 · ORLY -0.6 · NFLX -0.8 · TSLA -1.6 · ABNB -2.6 · MELI -5.8
The weakest group. MELI was the single worst performer in the index on the highest relative volume (1.53x), losing its 20 EMA and flipping MACD bearish. ABNB gave back 2.64% from an RSI of 74.2 - a classic overbought unwind. TSLA remains below all three EMAs and 34.3% off its high.

Software/Cloud (9 names) - average -0.69%
PANW +0.8 · SNPS +0.3 · PYPL +0.3 · CRWD -0.1 · INTU -0.5 · FTNT -0.7 · CDNS -1.3 · ADBE -1.9 · WDAY -3.3
Monday's leaders took the day off while the money went back to silicon. Seven of nine still hold bull structure, and PANW closed at its 52-week high, so the group is pausing rather than breaking. CDNS is the exception and the warning: below all three EMAs with an RSI of 35.8.

Industrial/Other (4 names) - average -0.03%
CSCO +2.8 · CEG +0.1 · TMUS -0.8 · LIN -2.3
A group of two halves. CSCO ran 2.84% into its Q4 print on 1.34x volume; LIN was the second-worst chart in the index. TMUS sits below all three EMAs and is now the closest component to its 52-week low.

Healthcare/Biotech (2 names) - average +0.07%
REGN +0.1 · ISRG +0.0
Both flat, both holding bullish structure. REGN's RSI of 77.5 is the highest in the index and it is only 2.8% from its 52-week high - strong, but running hot.



TOP SWING SETUPS

A. NVDA - Long, trend continuation
Entry: 221.20 on a pullback (pivot S1 221.16 / Cam S4 221.40 confluence) · Stop: 216.20 · T1: 230.96 · T2: 236.50 · R:R: 1.95 to T1, 3.06 to T2
Close 224.09 (+3.03%) above all three EMAs (20 EMA 211.01, 50 EMA 207.39, 200 EMA 193.53), RSI 62.4, MACD +4.32 over signal +2.17, trading 15.5 points above its 60-day POC of 208.57 and only 5.3% below its 52-week high of 236.54. This is the cleanest structure in the semiconductor group because it is the only one of the big movers already trading above its POC - the others are still bouncing inside distribution. ATR 7.51, so the 5.00-point risk is under 0.7 ATR; keep the size honest. Momentum alternative: buy above the Cam R4 at 226.79 with the same targets and a stop at 220.00.

B. PANW - Long, 52-week-high breakout
Entry: 389.30 on a break of the high · Stop: 376.00 · T1: 405.13 · T2: 420.00 · R:R: 1.19 to T1, 2.31 to T2
Close 387.01 with today's high of 389.25 equal to the 52-week high. The EMA structure is the widest and cleanest in the entire index: 20 EMA 351.99, 50 EMA 320.31, 200 EMA 243.26, with the 60-day POC at 306.15 some 80 points below spot. MACD +16.46 over +12.59 and still expanding. The single caveat is an RSI of 70.4 - this is a breakout entry into an overbought reading, which works in a trending name but leaves no cushion if the market turns. Stop is deliberately under today's low rather than tight, because ATR is 15.27.

C. MU - Long, first pullback after the MACD cross
Entry: 895.30 (pivot S1 895.29) · Stop: 859.00 (pivot S3) · T1: 948.84 · T2: 1,000.00 · R:R: 1.47 to T1, 2.88 to T2
Close 911.29 (+4.92%), the strongest name in the index, now above all three EMAs (891.78 / 888.54 / 615.44) with MACD at -19.11 crossing above its -24.98 signal - a bullish cross from deeply negative territory, which is the highest-quality version of that signal. T1 is deliberately set at the 60-day POC of 948.84, which is also pivot R2 at 951.80: that band is where the supply from the last distribution phase lives, and it is the honest first objective. Risk warning: ATR is 76.05, or 8.3% of the share price. The 36.30-point stop is only half an ATR. Position size must be a fraction of what you would use elsewhere in this list.

D. LIN - Short, weakest chart in the index
Entry: 478.70 on a break of today's low · Stop: 486.20 · T1: 463.75 · T2: 452.00 · R:R: 1.99 to T1, 3.56 to T2
Close 479.43 (-2.26%) below all three EMAs (20 EMA 497.96, 50 EMA 505.17, 200 EMA 488.39) with the lowest RSI in the index at 34.4 and MACD at -8.30 under a -6.96 signal. The tell is relative volume of 1.05x - one of only five names in the whole scan to trade above average, and it did so on a 2.26% decline. The 60-day POC sits at 509.96, over 30 points overhead, so every bounce runs into supply. Stop sits just above the Cam R4 at 485.80 and above today's 490.34 high on a closing basis only.

E. META - Short, broken structure into a weak close
Entry: 578.20 on a break of today's low · Stop: 586.20 (above Cam R3 586.08) · T1: 560.90 · T2: 543.58 · R:R: 2.16 to T1, 4.33 to T2
Close 578.85 (-3.38%) at the very bottom of a 578.21-604.50 range - it closed 0.64 off the low of a 26-point day. Below all three EMAs (595.54 / 602.40 / 626.26), MACD -6.44 under -5.66, 27.3% below its 52-week high, and trading 22 points under a 60-day POC of 600.99. This was the worst mega-cap on a day the macro news was good, which is the definition of relative weakness. The 8.00-point stop is tight against a 22.73 ATR, so expect to be stopped out on noise more often than not - either widen to 593.50 (above Cam R4 593.31, R:R still 1.16 / 2.32) or accept a low hit rate for a high payoff.



INTRADAY SETUPS - THURSDAY 13 AUGUST

1. NVDA - Camarilla breakout long
Direction: Long · Entry: 226.90 (above Cam R4 226.79) · Stop: 223.50 · T1: 230.96 · T2: 233.70 · R:R: 1.19 / 2.00
Cam R4 breakouts are the trend-day expression of the Camarilla set, and NVDA is the one name in the index with both the momentum and the structure to deliver one. Stop sits below Cam S1 at 223.64. Invalid if the index opens below 29,678 (pivot S1).

2. AAPL - Camarilla range short (mean reversion)
Direction: Short · Entry: 303.65 (Cam R3) · Stop: 305.30 (above Cam R4 305.05) · T1: 300.85 (Cam S3) · T2: 299.45 (Cam S4) · R:R: 1.70 / 2.55
The textbook Camarilla reversion trade: sell the R3 touch, cover at S3, when the underlying trend agrees. It does here - AAPL is below its 20 EMA (314.47) and 50 EMA (309.38), RSI 40.2, MACD -1.73 under a +1.61 signal, and it closed below its 60-day POC of 306.57. The whole R1-to-R4 band sits between 302.72 and 305.05, so this is a tight 1.65-point risk on a 8.55 ATR name. Do not chase if price opens above 305.

3. MELI - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 1,826.50 (below today's 1,827.00 low) · Stop: 1,855.90 (above Cam R3 1,855.79) · T1: 1,794.53 (pivot S1) · T2: 1,773.29 (Cam S4) · R:R: 1.09 / 1.81
The heaviest distribution in the scan: -5.76% on 1.53x relative volume, a 100-point range, a close 1.29 off the low, loss of the 20 EMA at 1,844.70 and a fresh bearish MACD cross (25.91 under a 32.38 signal). It remains above its POC of 1,733.27, which is why T2 stops at Cam S4 rather than reaching for it. ATR 67.17 - this is a wide, fast name and the 29.40-point stop is under half an ATR.

4. AMAT - Camarilla breakout long, day-trade only
Direction: Long · Entry: 553.10 (above Cam R4 553.02) · Stop: 547.30 (below Cam S1 547.34) · T1: 561.82 (pivot R3) · T2: 566.00 · R:R: 1.50 / 2.22
AMAT reclaimed all three EMAs today on a 4.29% move and closed 6.07 under its 60-day POC of 554.22 - the Cam R4 breakout and the POC reclaim are effectively the same trade. Hard rule: flat before 21:00 UK. AMAT reports fiscal Q3 after Thursday's close and carries a 35.87 ATR (6.5% of price) before any earnings gap is added. Holding this overnight is not a technical decision.

5. CSCO - no setup, levels void
CSCO reported Q4 FY26 after Wednesday's close. Every pivot and Camarilla level printed above (P 123.53, Cam R4 125.08, Cam S4 122.68) was calculated from a pre-earnings session and is meaningless until Thursday's gap resolves. It ran 2.84% into the print on 1.34x relative volume and closed at 123.88, right beneath the 124.62 level analysts had flagged as resistance. Let it settle, then re-derive levels from Thursday's range. No position.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 BY WEIGHT

NVDA - Close 224.09
Cam: S4 221.40 · S3 222.74 · S1 223.64 || R1 224.54 · R3 225.44 · R4 226.79
Classic: S3 216.26 · S2 218.23 · S1 221.16 · P 223.13 · R1 226.06 · R2 228.03 · R3 230.96
EMAs: 20 211.01 · 50 207.39 · 200 193.53 | POC 208.57 | Prev H/L 225.10 / 220.20 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - Close 492.43
Cam: S4 486.94 · S3 489.69 · S1 491.52 || R1 493.34 · R3 495.17 · R4 497.92
Classic: S3 478.82 · S2 485.17 · S1 488.80 · P 495.15 · R1 498.78 · R2 505.13 · R3 508.76
EMAs: 20 454.47 · 50 425.91 · 200 428.02 | POC 411.44 | Prev H/L 501.50 / 491.52 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - Close 302.25
Cam: S4 299.45 · S3 300.85 · S1 301.78 || R1 302.72 · R3 303.65 · R4 305.05
Classic: S3 294.90 · S2 297.74 · S1 299.99 · P 302.83 · R1 305.08 · R2 307.92 · R3 310.17
EMAs: 20 314.47 · 50 309.38 · 200 281.29 | POC 306.57 | Prev H/L 305.66 / 300.57 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78

AMZN - Close 267.28
Cam: S4 263.78 · S3 265.53 · S1 266.70 || R1 267.86 · R3 269.03 · R4 270.78
Classic: S3 258.74 · S2 262.92 · S1 265.10 · P 269.28 · R1 271.46 · R2 275.64 · R3 277.82
EMAs: 20 259.95 · 50 252.59 · 200 238.88 | POC 249.44 | Prev H/L 273.46 / 267.10 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00

GOOGL - Close 343.54
Cam: S4 340.46 · S3 342.00 · S1 343.03 || R1 344.05 · R3 345.08 · R4 346.62
Classic: S3 335.19 · S2 338.03 · S1 340.79 · P 343.63 · R1 346.39 · R2 349.23 · R3 351.99
EMAs: 20 351.19 · 50 353.25 · 200 323.14 | POC 357.98 | Prev H/L 346.48 / 340.88 | 52w H/L 408.61 / 196.60



BEARISH WARNINGS

1. The equal-weight divergence. The index gained 0.74% while the average of its 40 largest components changed -0.02%, with 18 advancers against 22 decliners. Every point of today's gain came from cap-weighted concentration. Rallies that narrow this far tend to need the leaders to keep delivering, and the leaders here are a semiconductor group that is still 25-32% below its own highs.

2. The mega-cap bloc failed on good news. AAPL -0.87%, MSFT -2.26%, AMZN -1.83%, META -3.38%, GOOGL -0.08% on the softest core CPI in five months. AAPL and GOOGL both closed below their 20 and 50 EMAs and below their POCs. When the largest weights cannot rally on their preferred catalyst, the catalyst is already priced.

3. Six names at or above RSI 70. REGN 77.5, ABNB 74.2, PYPL 71.2, MSFT 70.8, PANW 70.4, BKNG 70.2. Two of them - MSFT (-2.26%) and ABNB (-2.64%) - fell hard today, which is the classic first crack in an overbought leader. PYPL is the sharpest warning in the group: RSI 71.2 with a bearish MACD. That is momentum leaving while price is still elevated.

4. Ten of 40 names carry a bearish MACD: AAPL, META, AMD, TMUS, LIN, CDNS, MELI, MAR, FTNT, PYPL. Note that AMD (+1.82%) and MAR (+1.46%) both rose today on bearish momentum readings and both remain below their 20 and 50 EMAs - bounces in downtrends until proven otherwise.

5. Long-term death-cross structure in 16 of 40 names. The 50 EMA sits below the 200 EMA in MSFT, META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, MELI, DASH, CEG, WDAY, PYPL and ORLY. Most of these trade above both averages, so this is the residue of an earlier drawdown rather than a fresh breakdown - but it means the medium-term average is still falling underneath a rising price in 40% of the index. That structure resolves one way or the other; it does not persist.

6. Weakest charts: LIN (RSI 34.4, below all three EMAs, bearish MACD, above-average volume on the decline), CDNS (RSI 35.8, below all three EMAs, MACD -9.02), META (below all three EMAs, -27.3% from high, closed on its low), TMUS and QCOM (both below all three EMAs, QCOM 37.3% off its high).

7. Proximity to 52-week lows. No component is within 5% of its low, which is genuinely reassuring. The nearest are TMUS (+6.9% above its low), TSLA (+10.1%), META (+11.3%), ORLY (+11.5%) and COST (+12.5%). There is no distress in the index - but TMUS has now been the closest name to its low for three sessions running.

8. Distribution in the volume profile. The visible-range profile shows 3.11bn up-volume against 3.63bn down-volume. Over the range that matters, more shares have changed hands on down bars than up bars.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Already in the tape - Wednesday 12 August after the close
CSCO Q4 FY26. Reported revenue of 17.3bn, GAAP net income 3.9bn (0.97 per share), non-GAAP 4.9bn (1.22 per share). CSCO went into the print up 60% year-to-date and closed at 123.88, just under the widely watched 124.62 resistance. As an AI-networking bellwether the read-through to the wider infrastructure complex is real, and Thursday's gap will set the tone for CEG, AVGO and the networking chain before the opening bell.

Thursday 13 August
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US PPI, July. The producer-side half of the inflation picture, arriving the day after a benign CPI. A hot PPI is the one clean way to undo Wednesday's relief rally, because it reopens the margin question that CPI just closed.
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - Weekly initial jobless claims. Carrying more weight than usual after the -23,000 payrolls shock; the Fed is openly split and claims is the highest-frequency read available.
21:30 UK (16:30 ET) - AMAT fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call. Consensus near 3.36 EPS on revenue around 9bn, against company guidance of roughly 8.95bn. AMAT has just put in a two-day recovery of over 7% and reclaimed all three EMAs, so it enters the print with far more to lose than it had on Monday. ATR 35.87 (6.5% of price) before any gap. This is the highest-variance component event of the week.

Friday 14 August
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US retail sales, July. The third leg of the data window. With the consumer names (MELI, ABNB, TSLA, MAR) already the weakest sector group in the index, a soft print lands on a group with no cushion.

The following week
Wednesday 19 August - FOMC minutes from the 28-29 July meeting, the one decided on a 9-3 vote with the first three-way, same-direction dissent since September 2016. Given how divided that committee was, the minutes carry more information than usual.

Component earnings within the 40
CSCO (done, 12 Aug) and AMAT (13 Aug) are the only two of the 40 reporting in this window. The remainder of the index has cleared its July reporting season, which is precisely why macro is driving the tape.



SUMMARY

The NASDAQ 100 got the print it wanted and could not hold the gap. Headline core CPI at 2.5% year-on-year removed the hike risk that had capped the index since the payrolls shock, the index gapped to 29,875, and it closed at 29,742 in the bottom sixth of the day's range on the tightest range of the week.

Structurally the picture is still good. Full bullish EMA stack with all three averages rising, price 1.35% above the 20 EMA and 10.5% above the 200 EMA, RSI at a neutral-constructive 57.1, and a MACD cross with a +172 histogram while the signal line is still below zero - that last one is the most genuinely bullish reading on the chart. The index is only 3.31% below its 52-week high. Nothing in the trend architecture argues for a top.

The problem is what happened underneath. Breadth was 18 up, 22 down and the average component finished flat, so the entire index gain came from cap-weighted semiconductor strength. That strength is real but shallow: MU, LRCX, AMAT and KLAC all rallied 4-5% and all four are still trading below their own 60-day POCs with RSI clustered in the low fifties. They are bouncing inside distribution, not breaking out of it. Meanwhile the five largest weights in the index all closed red on the best macro news of the month, and six leaders are now sitting at or above RSI 70 with two of them (MSFT, ABNB) already turning down.

That combination - improving momentum, deteriorating participation - is a market that grinds rather than accelerates. The levels resolve it. A close above 29,881 takes out today's rejection and puts the 29,946-30,010 band, and with it the 30,000 handle, immediately in play. A loss of 29,614 (pivot S2) hands back the CPI gap entirely and points at the 29,513-29,525 confluence, with the 20 EMA at 29,346 as the first real structural test.

Between those two lines the index has spent all week doing nothing, and Thursday brings PPI, claims and AMAT. Trade the components, respect the event risk, and let the index tell you which way it wants to go before sizing up.



Report: 12 August 2026 22:10 GMT · Index data 12 August close · Component scanner data 12 August close · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - TUESDAY 11 AUGUST 2026
Index data: Close 11 Aug | NAS100: 29,503.40 | Change: -118.41 (-0.40%) | Range: 29,427.61 - 29,705.80
COMPONENT DATA NOTE: the 40-stock scanner feed last published on Monday 10 August close. Every stock price, EMA, RSI, MACD, pivot and Camarilla level in the component sections below is 10 August data and is one session stale. Index levels and index pivots are current to the 11 August close.



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,503.40, down 118.41 points (-0.40%) from Monday's 29,621.80. The session traded a tight 278-point band between 29,427.61 and 29,705.80 - roughly 0.94% of index value, a compressed range that says positioning, not conviction.

Drivers were external rather than technical. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensified, pushing crude around and keeping a lid on risk appetite. Communication services was the weakest S&P sector, off more than 2%, with Alphabet -3.8% and AppLovin down almost 6%. Nvidia had firmed +1.5% pre-market on reports it raised 500 billion dollars privately with banks for AI infrastructure buildout, while Intel extended its slide as its stock sale was raised by 5 billion to 20 billion.

The broad tape was equally soft: S&P 500 -0.3% to 7,728.20, Dow -0.3% to 53,791.85, Nasdaq Composite -0.6% to 26,445.45. VIX remains subdued in the mid-teens (15.46 prior close, 10 Aug).

Bias: Constructive but on hold. The primary uptrend is fully intact and unbroken. Price is simply refusing to commit ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. This is a coiled market, not a topping one - but the coil resolves on a data release, which means the first move may not be the real one.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100 daily): Close 29,503.40 above all three - EMA20 29,246.45 . EMA50 28,940.21 . EMA200 26,884.97.

The stack is in perfect bullish alignment: price > EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200. Distance from each: +0.88% above the 20, +1.95% above the 50, +9.74% above the 200. That is a healthy, non-extended position - close enough to the 20 that a pullback has support underneath, far enough above the 200 that no structural damage is remotely in play.

Structure: higher highs and higher lows intact. Recent swing sequence: 29,487.79 - 29,373.33 - 29,722.30 - 29,621.80 - 29,503.40. Three of the last five sessions closed red, but the pullback has been shallow and has held above the 20 EMA throughout - textbook orderly consolidation rather than distribution.

Phase: Stage 2 advance in a pause. The index sits 4.09% below its swing high of 30,762.20. A 4% drawdown inside a trend that is nearly 10% above its 200 EMA is a rest, not a reversal. The bull case stays valid while 28,940 (EMA50) holds on a closing basis.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 55.05 - dead centre of the bullish half. Not overbought, not weak, plenty of room in both directions. No bearish divergence: the index made a lower high into a lower RSI reading, which is confirmation rather than divergence. The tell will be whether RSI holds the 50 line on any CPI-driven flush - losing 50 would be the first genuine warning of trend deterioration.

MACD: 85.88, Signal -88.24, Histogram +174.12 - freshly bullish. The MACD line has crossed decisively above signal and the histogram is strongly positive, meaning momentum accelerated into this consolidation rather than draining out of it. This is the single most constructive reading on the board and it materially favours the upside resolution.

Volume: 1.21bn on the session against a 1.31bn 300-day average - roughly 8% below normal. Volume has declined for four consecutive sessions (1.51bn, 1.42bn, 1.36bn, 1.27bn, 1.21bn). Falling volume into a shallow pullback is constructive: sellers are not pressing. It also means the CPI reaction will land into thin books, so expect the initial move to overshoot.

Breadth (40-stock sample, 10 Aug): 21 advancing, 18 declining, 1 flat. 28 of 40 above their 200 EMA, 32 of 40 with bullish MACD, 21 of 40 trading above their 60-day VWAP/POC. Breadth is positive but not broad - the index is being carried by software and mega-cap while semiconductors bleed.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance:
R1 29,663.60 - classic pivot R1 and just under today's 29,705.80 high. First real test.
R2 29,823.79 - pivot R2 and the 29,750/29,800 supply shelf from last week's failed push.
R3 29,941.79 - pivot R3 into the psychological 30,000 handle. Expect friction.

Support:
S1 29,385.41 - classic pivot S1, immediately below today's 29,427.61 low.
S2 29,267.41 - pivot S2 sitting almost exactly on the EMA20 at 29,246.45. This is the key confluence level.
S3 29,107.22 - pivot S3. Below here the EMA50 at 28,940 becomes the line in the sand.

Classic pivots for Wednesday 12 August (from 11 Aug H/L/C):
S3 29,107.22 . S2 29,267.41 . S1 29,385.41 . P 29,545.60 . R1 29,663.60 . R2 29,823.79 . R3 29,941.79

Round numbers: 29,500 (price is sitting on it), 29,000, 30,000. The 30,000 handle is the magnet if CPI comes in soft.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Data: Monday 10 August close. Trend uses STRICT close-versus-EMA rules. All 40 classifications machine-verified against close vs EMA20/EMA50/EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Legend: Ticker . Close . Day% . Trend . RSI (zone) . MACD . % from 52w high . POC

PANW 385.04 . +5.82% . Bull above all . 70.3 Overbought . Bullish . -0.0% . Above POC
CRWD 225.16 . +5.01% . Bull above all . 71.3 Overbought . Bullish . -0.8% . Above POC
ISRG 393.38 . +3.85% . Bull above 20/50 . 56.9 Bullish . Bullish . -34.9% . Above POC
ABNB 184.70 . +3.72% . Bull above all . 81.5 Overbought . Bullish . -0.7% . Above POC
REGN 808.05 . +3.02% . Bull above all . 83.2 Overbought . Bullish . -1.6% . Above POC
ADBE 272.96 . +2.92% . Bull above all . 69.0 Strong . Bullish . -26.4% . Above POC
NFLX 76.29 . +2.90% . Bull above 20/50 . 58.9 Bullish . Bullish . -39.8% . Below POC
FTNT 164.21 . +2.86% . Bull above all . 58.6 Bullish . Bullish . -4.6% . Above POC
INTU 334.43 . +2.82% . Bull above 20/50 . 64.6 Strong . Bullish . -56.1% . Above POC
WDAY 184.19 . +2.53% . Bull above all . 72.3 Overbought . Bullish . -26.3% . Above POC
AMZN 278.09 . +1.32% . Bull above all . 65.9 Strong . Bullish . -3.2% . Above POC
MSFT 506.06 . +1.21% . Bull above all . 79.1 Overbought . Bullish . -8.6% . Above POC
CSCO 122.57 . +0.94% . Bull above all . 62.9 Strong . Bullish . -6.0% . Above POC
GOOGL 357.52 . +0.91% . Bull above all . 52.2 Bullish . Bullish . -12.5% . Below POC
TSLA 330.88 . +0.70% . Bear below all . 42.5 Neutral . Bullish . -33.7% . Below POC
TMUS 178.20 . +0.57% . Bear below all . 47.6 Neutral . Bearish . -31.9% . Below POC
COST 952.75 . +0.52% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 . 52.0 Bullish . Bullish . -13.1% . Below POC
LIN 492.46 . +0.51% . Bear below 20/50 . 41.5 Neutral . Bearish . -10.2% . Below POC
META 594.92 . +0.48% . Bear below all . 48.6 Neutral . Bearish . -25.3% . Below POC
MELI 1,824.34 . +0.20% . Mixed: below 20, above 50, below 200 . 50.4 Bullish . Bearish . -28.4% . Above POC
CEG 270.43 . +0.20% . Bull above 20/50 . 55.2 Bullish . Bullish . -34.5% . Above POC
PYPL 59.07 . 0.00% . Bull above all . 71.0 Overbought . Bearish . -25.4% . Above POC
BKNG 212.88 . -0.72% . Bull above all . 71.1 Overbought . Bullish . -8.2% . Above POC
SNPS 411.68 . -1.04% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 . 51.4 Bullish . Bullish . -34.5% . Below POC
AVGO 422.40 . -1.25% . Bull above all . 61.8 Strong . Bullish . -14.7% . Above POC
ORLY 92.23 . -1.39% . Bull above all . 57.1 Bullish . Bullish . -15.2% . Above POC
ADI 383.93 . -1.54% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 . 51.3 Bullish . Bullish . -13.9% . Below POC
MAR 348.44 . -1.55% . Bear below 20/50 . 38.0 Weak . Bearish . -15.2% . Below POC
LRCX 306.40 . -1.59% . Bear below 20/50 . 47.4 Neutral . Bullish . -30.1% . Below POC
AAPL 308.26 . -1.62% . Bear below 20/50 . 44.1 Neutral . Bearish . -10.5% . Above POC
MU 861.00 . -1.89% . Bear below 20/50 . 46.3 Neutral . Bullish . -31.4% . Below POC
TXN 280.44 . -1.97% . Bear below 20/50 . 46.8 Neutral . Bullish . -16.0% . Below POC
CDNS 331.91 . -2.16% . Bear below all . 40.0 Neutral . Bullish . -20.3% . Below POC
KLAC 192.74 . -2.71% . Bear below 20/50 . 43.7 Neutral . Bullish . -37.3% . Below POC
AMD 469.56 . -2.86% . Bear below 20/50 . 44.7 Neutral . Bearish . -19.7% . Below POC
NVDA 217.54 . -2.87% . Bull above all . 58.1 Bullish . Bullish . -8.0% . Above POC
DASH 209.86 . -2.96% . Bull above all . 64.1 Strong . Bullish . -26.5% . Above POC
AMAT 522.12 . -3.16% . Bear below 20/50 . 47.4 Neutral . Bullish . -29.4% . Below POC
QCOM 162.17 . -3.39% . Bear below all . 44.0 Neutral . Bullish . -37.6% . Below POC
MRVL 208.61 . -4.62% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 . 48.8 Neutral . Bullish . -36.8% . Below POC

Trend tally: Bull above all 17 . Bull above 20/50 4 . Mixed 5 . Bear below 20/50 9 . Bear below all 5



SECTOR GROUPING

Software and Cloud - LEADING
ADBE, INTU, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY. Average day move +2.34%, 6 of 8 bullish, average RSI 62.2, 6 of 8 above POC. This is where the money is going. Security in particular is on fire - PANW +5.82% into a fresh 52-week high, CRWD +5.01% within 0.8% of its own, FTNT +2.86%. Only the EDA pair (SNPS, CDNS) is dragging.

Healthcare and Biotech - STRONGEST BY AVERAGE
REGN, ISRG. Average +3.44%, both bullish, average RSI 70.0, both above POC. Small sample, but REGN at RSI 83.2 with a +10.08 MACD histogram is the single strongest momentum reading in the entire index. ISRG has reclaimed its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains 34.9% below its 52-week high - early-stage recovery.

Mega-cap Tech - MIXED, HOLDING
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL. Average +0.46%, 3 of 5 core names bullish, average RSI 58.0. MSFT (RSI 79.1, +10.49 histogram) and AMZN (3.2% off its high) are doing the heavy lifting. AAPL has lost its 20 and 50 EMAs with a bearish MACD - watch it. META is below all three EMAs with its 50 under its 200: the weakest mega-cap on the board.

Consumer and Internet - SPLIT
TSLA, COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY. Average +0.16%, 5 of 9 bullish, average RSI 57.3. Travel is the fault line: ABNB (+3.72%, RSI 81.5, relative volume 1.93) and BKNG (RSI 71.1, above all EMAs) are strong, while MAR is the weakest RSI in the whole index at 38.0 and below its 20 and 50. TSLA remains below all three EMAs.

Semiconductors - LAGGING BADLY
NVDA, AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL. Average -2.53%, only 2 of 11 bullish, average RSI 49.1, and just 2 of 11 above their POC. This is the story of the tape. Nine of the eleven are below their 20 and 50 EMAs. NVDA and AVGO are the sole survivors holding full bull stacks. MRVL -4.62%, QCOM -3.39%, AMAT -3.16% led the damage. Until semis stabilise, index upside stays capped.

Industrial and Other - QUIET
TMUS, LIN, CSCO, CEG, PYPL. Average +0.44%, 3 of 5 bullish, average RSI 55.6. CSCO is the standout with a full bull stack, RSI 62.9 and relative volume above 1.0 into its earnings on Wednesday. TMUS and LIN are both below their 20 and 50 with bearish MACD.



TOP SWING SETUPS
Levels derived from 10 August close. Re-check against live price before acting.

1. PANW - LONG (52-week high breakout)
Closed 385.04, fractionally under its 52-week high of 385.17, after a +5.82% surge. Full bull stack (EMA20 344.56, EMA50 314.88, EMA200 240.39), RSI 70.3, MACD histogram +3.04, and trading 28% above its 301.12 POC. Nothing overhead but blue sky.
Entry: 385.20 on a break . Stop: 376.00 . T1: 399.94 . T2: 414.71 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 3.2 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high breakout + pivot R2/R3 targets + strongest sector (software/security) + ATR 15.77 gives the move room.

2. CRWD - LONG (breakout continuation)
Closed 225.16, +5.01%, sitting 0.8% below its 226.90 high. Bull stack (EMA20 198.90, EMA50 184.02, EMA200 144.42), RSI 71.3, relative volume 0.98, and a huge 25% premium to its 179.21 POC.
Entry: 226.95 . Stop: 219.30 . T1: 234.55 . T2: 242.21 . R:R: 1.0 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Confluence: Same-day sector move as PANW - two security names breaking together is a genuine group thrust, not a single-stock story.

3. ABNB - LONG (volume breakout)
Closed 184.70, +3.72%, versus a 185.99 high, on relative volume 1.93 - the highest conviction volume reading in the entire 40-stock scan. Bull stack with the EMA20 at 154.20 far below.
Entry: 186.05 . Stop: 179.99 . T1: 191.27 . T2: 196.54 . R:R: 0.9 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Caution: RSI 81.5 is deeply overbought and price is 20% above its own 20 EMA. The volume justifies attention; the extension justifies a small size and a tight stop. Take T1 in full if reached quickly.

4. REGN - LONG on pullback (do not chase)
The strongest momentum in the index - RSI 83.2, MACD histogram +10.08, relative volume 1.10, closed 808.05 against an 821.11 high, having just crossed its 200 EMA (692.91) from below. But at 24% above its 650.59 POC it is far too extended to buy here.
Entry: 790.00 on a retrace . Stop: 771.00 . T1: 821.11 . T2: 852.74 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 3.3 to T2
Confluence: Entry zone sits on Camarilla S4 789.76 and pivot S1 786.22 - a genuine level cluster, not an arbitrary number.

5. QCOM - SHORT (semiconductor weakness)
Closed 162.17, -3.39%, below all three EMAs (20 at 166.78, 50 at 177.61, 200 at 171.68), RSI 44.0, and a full 19% below its 200.82 POC. Sits 37.6% under its 52-week high with the 50 EMA now beneath the 200 - a completed death cross.
Entry: 161.95 on a break of the 162.08 low . Stop: 165.90 . T1: 157.58 . T2: 153.09 . R:R: 1.1 to T1, 2.2 to T2
Confluence: Weakest sector in the index + below-all-EMAs structure + deep POC discount. The clean short expression of the semi drag.



INTRADAY SETUPS - NAS100 INDEX, WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST
Built from the 11 August close, so these are current. Range was a narrow 278.19 points, which compresses the Camarilla bands - expect a wider CPI-day range and size accordingly.

A. Camarilla range fade - SHORT from R3 (pre-CPI window only)
Valid 08:00 to 13:25 UK, before the CPI release. Narrow-range days favour reversion until the catalyst lands.
Entry: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . Stop: 29,656.40 (Cam R4) . T1: 29,505.00 . T2: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . R:R: 1.0 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Reasoning: Classic Camarilla reversion. Flat all positions before 13:30 UK regardless of P/L.

B. Camarilla range fade - LONG from S3 (pre-CPI window only)
Entry: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . Stop: 29,350.40 (Cam S4) . T1: 29,528.90 (Cam R1) . T2: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Reasoning: Mirror of setup A. S3 at 29,426.90 sits almost exactly on today's 29,427.61 low - a tested level, which strengthens it.

C. Camarilla breakout - LONG above R4 (soft CPI)
Entry: 29,656.40 (Cam R4) . Stop: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . T1: 29,823.79 (pivot R2) . T2: 29,941.79 (pivot R3) . R:R: 2.2 to T1, 3.7 to T2
Reasoning: A break above R4 on a cool inflation print converts the compression into trend. The bullish MACD cross and full EMA stack mean the path of least resistance is up if the data cooperates. T2 puts 30,000 in play.

D. Camarilla breakdown - SHORT below S4 (hot CPI)
Entry: 29,350.40 (Cam S4) . Stop: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . T1: 29,267.41 (pivot S2) . T2: 29,107.22 (pivot S3) . R:R: 1.1 to T1, 3.2 to T2
Reasoning: A hot core print breaks S4 and opens the EMA20 at 29,246.45, which coincides almost perfectly with pivot S2. Expect a fight there - that confluence is the first real bid.

E. EMA20 confluence bounce - LONG (deeper flush only)
Entry: 29,250.00 (EMA20 29,246.45 + pivot S2 29,267.41) . Stop: 29,100.00 . T1: 29,500.00 . T2: 29,663.60 (pivot R1) . R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.8 to T2
Reasoning: The highest-quality level on the chart. Only take it on a controlled test with a bounce, not a vertical knife. Below 29,100 stand aside and let the EMA50 at 28,940 do the work.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 MEGA-CAPS
All component levels from the 10 August close - structural reference, not live session pivots.

NVDA - 217.54
Cam: S4 213.49 . S3 215.51 . S1 216.86 || R1 218.22 . R3 219.57 . R4 221.59
Classic: S3 207.46 . S2 212.11 . S1 214.83 . P 219.48 . R1 222.20 . R2 226.85 . R3 229.57
EMAs: 20 at 208.81 . 50 at 206.26 . 200 at 192.98 | POC 209.16 | Prev H/L 224.14 / 216.77 | 52w 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - 506.06
Cam: S4 499.76 . S3 502.91 . S1 505.01 || R1 507.11 . R3 509.21 . R4 512.36
Classic: S3 489.52 . S2 495.89 . S1 500.98 . P 507.35 . R1 512.44 . R2 518.81 . R3 523.90
EMAs: 20 at 444.86 . 50 at 419.91 . 200 at 426.61 | POC 409.89 | Prev H/L 513.73 / 502.27 | 52w 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - 308.26
Cam: S4 306.25 . S3 307.26 . S1 307.93 || R1 308.59 . R3 309.26 . R4 310.27
Classic: S3 302.18 . S2 303.39 . S1 305.83 . P 307.04 . R1 309.48 . R2 310.69 . R3 313.13
EMAs: 20 at 316.90 . 50 at 309.87 . 200 at 280.84 | POC 306.42 | Prev H/L 308.26 / 304.61 | 52w 344.57 / 219.25
Note: closed on its low and below both the 20 and 50 EMA with a bearish MACD. Reclaiming 309.87 is the bull trigger.

AMZN - 278.09
Cam: S4 274.49 . S3 276.29 . S1 277.49 || R1 278.69 . R3 279.89 . R4 281.69
Classic: S3 267.87 . S2 270.74 . S1 274.41 . P 277.28 . R1 280.95 . R2 283.82 . R3 287.49
EMAs: 20 at 257.80 . 50 at 251.16 . 200 at 238.25 | POC 249.38 | Prev H/L 280.14 / 273.60 | 52w 287.20 / 196.00

AVGO - 422.40
Cam: S4 415.49 . S3 418.94 . S1 421.25 || R1 423.55 . R3 425.86 . R4 429.31
Classic: S3 404.89 . S2 412.53 . S1 417.46 . P 425.10 . R1 430.03 . R2 437.67 . R3 442.60
EMAs: 20 at 399.74 . 50 at 394.29 . 200 at 363.67 | POC 400.97 | Prev H/L 432.73 / 420.16 | 52w 495.00 / 281.87



BEARISH WARNINGS

1. Death-cross structures. Five names now have their 50 EMA below their 200 EMA with price beneath the 50: META, TSLA, COST, TMUS, SNPS. META is the concerning one - a mega-cap with a bearish MACD, sitting 25.3% below its 52-week high and below all three EMAs. Only 22 of 40 components still have a 50-over-200 golden-cross structure.

2. The semiconductor bleed. Nine of eleven semis are below their 20 and 50 EMAs, nine of eleven trade below their POC, and the group averaged -2.53% on the day. The NASDAQ 100 cannot sustain new highs with its highest-beta group in this condition. If NVDA (still bull-stacked, but -2.87% and only 8% off its high) loses 208.81, the last semiconductor support goes with it.

3. Overbought cluster. Eight components carry RSI at or above 70: REGN 83.2, ABNB 81.5, MSFT 79.1, WDAY 72.3, CRWD 71.3, BKNG 71.1, PYPL 71.0, PANW 70.3. Concentrated leadership at overbought readings is how narrow rallies end. PYPL is already flashing the warning - RSI 71.0 but a bearish MACD histogram of -0.16 and a flat 0.00% day on relative volume of just 0.36. That is momentum failing while the oscillator is still elevated.

4. Bearish MACD despite green days. MELI closed +0.20% with a -8.99 histogram and sits below both its 20 and 200 EMA. TMUS and LIN both closed green with bearish MACD. Rising price on deteriorating momentum is a low-quality advance.

5. Relative-strength laggards. MAR at RSI 38.0 is the weakest reading in the index, below its 20 and 50 with a bearish MACD and 15.2% off its high. INTU is 56.1% below its 52-week high, NFLX 39.8%, QCOM 37.6%, KLAC 37.3%, MRVL 36.8% - a reminder that "NASDAQ 100 near highs" describes the index, not most of its members.

One positive on the risk side: no component is within 15% of its 52-week low. The nearest are TMUS (+7.6% above its low) and TSLA (+11.3%). There is no distress in the index, just rotation.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Wednesday 12 August - the day that matters
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US CPI, July. Consensus: headline +0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; core +0.32% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. June headline fell 0.4% month-on-month and ran 3.5% year-on-year. This is the release the entire compressed range is waiting on. A core print above 0.32% reopens the rate debate and puts setup D in play; a soft print releases the coil upward through Cam R4.

After the US close - CSCO Q4 FY26 earnings. Consensus EPS 1.17 (up 18% year-on-year) on revenue of 16.83bn. CSCO enters with a full bull stack, RSI 62.9 and relative volume above 1.0, trading 6.0% below its 52-week high. As an AI-networking bellwether the read-through to the broader infrastructure complex is real.

Thursday 13 August
21:30 UK (16:30 ET) - AMAT Q3 FY26 earnings call. Consensus EPS 3.39 on revenue near 9bn, against company guidance of 8.95bn plus or minus 500m and EPS 3.36 plus or minus 0.20. AMAT is the sick man of the semis right now - below its 20 and 50 EMAs, 29.4% off its high, and it closed -3.16%. Given the sector backdrop this is the single highest-variance component event of the week. Note also that AMAT carries an ATR of 37.89, or 7.3% of its price, before any earnings gap.

July PPI also lands this week, providing the second half of the inflation picture.

Ongoing macro risk
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive crude, and by extension the inflation expectations that feed straight back into the CPI reaction function. Headline risk here is unscheduled and can override the technicals on any given session.



SUMMARY
The NASDAQ 100 is a healthy uptrend sitting on its hands. Price is above all three EMAs in perfect alignment, MACD has just crossed bullish with a +174 histogram, RSI sits at a neutral 55, and volume is quietly drying up into a shallow 4% pullback from the highs. Structurally, everything says higher.

The problem is internal. Software and security are ripping while semiconductors - the index's highest-beta engine - are broken below their 20 and 50 EMAs almost across the board. Leadership has narrowed into a handful of overbought names. That is a market that can keep grinding up, but not one that can accelerate.

Tomorrow's CPI resolves it. Above 29,656 the coil releases toward 30,000. Below 29,350 the EMA20/pivot-S2 confluence at 29,246-29,267 is where the trend gets its first real test. Between those two lines, do less.

Report: 11 August 2026 22:55 GMT . Index data 11 August close . Component scanner data 10 August close . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.