NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Tuesday 15 September 2026
Data: Component scan = close Tue 15 Sep 2026 | NAS100 (NDX): 29,127.16 | Change: -241.28 (-0.82%) | Range: 28,867.67 - 29,285.50
Note: the figures above are the last officially published NDX cash close (Mon 14 Sep). At the time of writing Nasdaq, FRED and Yahoo had not yet published the 15 Sep NDX index close. All 40 component levels, pivots and Camarilla levels below ARE Tuesday 15 September closing data. Index proxy for 15 Sep: Nasdaq Composite -0.78% at 25,981.57, S&P 500 -0.45% at 7,585.73, Dow -0.63% at 52,093.11.



MARKET OVERVIEW
A second straight risk-off session for large-cap tech. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed as high as 5.02% intraday - its highest since 2007 - while Brent crude held above $107 and WTI above $104 after further Gulf supply disruption. That combination of higher discount rates and higher input costs is exactly the wrong mix for long-duration growth equities.
Beneath the index level the tape was two-sided rather than uniformly weak. Semiconductors actually finished as the best group (+0.66% average) as Monday's AI-safety-driven selling was partially unwound - QCOM +4.25%, AMD +2.19%, CRWD +3.02%. The damage was concentrated in consumer, internet and travel names (average -1.81%), which are the most yield- and oil-sensitive cohort in the index.
Bias: Cautious / neutral-to-bearish into the event. Breadth is poor, but the leadership that remains is genuine. The Fed decision at 19:00 UK on Wednesday is the binary that resolves it.



TREND STRUCTURE
Component EMA alignment (close vs 20 / 50 / 200 EMA, all 40 names):
Above the 20 EMA: 11 of 40 · Above the 50 EMA: 13 of 40 · Above the 200 EMA: 22 of 40
Full bullish stack (above all three): 9 names - AAPL, MSFT, META, AMD, QCOM, PANW, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY
Full bearish stack (below all three): 17 names
Read: The index is in a corrective phase inside a longer-term uptrend. More than half the index still holds its 200 EMA, so the primary trend is not broken, but only a quarter of the index holds its 20 EMA - the short-term structure is decisively damaged. This is a narrow market: nine names are doing the work.
Structure since the 8 September high (29,655.73) is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the index. 29,368 is the pivot high that must be reclaimed to argue the pullback is over.



INDICATORS
RSI(14) - component distribution: Overbought (>=70): 1 (META 71.6). Oversold (<=30): 2 (CDNS 27.2, BKNG 29.5). Neutral: 37.
Median component RSI sits in the mid-40s - a pullback, not a washout. There is no broad oversold reading to fade, and no broad overbought reading to sell. CDNS at 27.2 with price below all three EMAs and below its POC is weak-and-oversold, not a bounce signal - oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not an entry.
MACD: Bullish (MACD > signal) on 14 of 40. The 26 bearish readings confirm momentum has rolled over across the majority of the index. Notably MSFT has turned MACD-bearish (9.37 vs 12.46 signal) while still holding its full bullish EMA stack - an early-warning divergence on the second-largest weight.
Volume: Relative volume was subdued on the downside - 24 of 40 names traded below their average volume. SNPS (rv 1.50), CRWD (1.42), MELI (1.39) and BKNG (1.31) were the only names with genuinely elevated participation. Low-conviction selling ahead of a known binary event is normal and is not, by itself, distribution.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance: R1 29,319 · R2 29,511 · R3 29,737 . Round-number resistance 29,500 and 30,000. Structural resistance: 29,368 (11 Sep close / last pivot high) then 29,656 (8 Sep high) and the 52-week high at 30,762.
Support: S1 28,901 · S2 28,676 · S3 28,484 . Round-number support 29,000 and 28,500. Structural support: 28,868 (14 Sep low) is the line in the sand - a daily close below it opens 28,500.
Classic pivots (from 14 Sep OHLC): S2 28,675.61 · S1 28,901.39 · P 29,093.44 · R1 29,319.22 · R2 29,511.27
Price is sitting just above the central pivot. Holding 29,093 keeps a bounce to 29,319 in play; losing it targets 28,901 then 28,676.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker · Close · Day % · Trend (strict EMA) · RSI zone · MACD · % from 52w high · POC

AAPL 331.34 · -0.52% · Bull (above all) · RSI 61.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -3.8% from 52w high · Above POC
MSFT 496.91 · -1.68% · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -10.3% from 52w high · Above POC
NVDA 212.17 · +0.57% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 45.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -10.3% from 52w high · Above POC
AMZN 248.42 · -2.02% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 41.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.5% from 52w high · Below POC
META 670.24 · +0.70% · Bull (above all) · RSI 71.6 OB · MACD Bull · -15.2% from 52w high · Above POC
GOOGL 344.98 · -1.26% · Mixed (>20 <50 >200) · RSI 51.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.6% from 52w high · Below POC
AVGO 339.27 · -1.58% · Bear (below all) · RSI 32.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -31.5% from 52w high · Below POC
TSLA 356.58 · -0.67% · Bear (below all) · RSI 50.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.5% from 52w high · Below POC
COST 901.35 · -1.91% · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -17.8% from 52w high · Below POC
NFLX 77.93 · -2.97% · Bear (below all) · RSI 49.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -37.6% from 52w high · Above POC
AMD 504.20 · +2.19% · Bull (above all) · RSI 54.1 Neutral · MACD Bull · -13.8% from 52w high · Below POC
ADBE 257.76 · -2.94% · Mixed (<20 >50 <200) · RSI 46.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -30.5% from 52w high · Above POC
QCOM 187.80 · +4.25% · Bull (above all) · RSI 69.5 Neutral · MACD Bull · -27.7% from 52w high · Above POC
TMUS 180.47 · -1.33% · Bear (below all) · RSI 48.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -26.1% from 52w high · Below POC
LIN 462.96 · -0.31% · Bear (below all) · RSI 32.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -15.5% from 52w high · Below POC
ISRG 377.16 · -0.21% · Mixed (>20 <50 <200) · RSI 52.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -37.5% from 52w high · Below POC
INTU 329.27 · -2.91% · Bear (below all) · RSI 48.0 Neutral · MACD Bear · -53.3% from 52w high · Above POC
CSCO 110.07 · +0.01% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.6% from 52w high · Below POC
TXN 263.43 · +0.00% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 47.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -21.1% from 52w high · Below POC
AMAT 421.17 · -0.72% · Bear (below all) · RSI 34.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -43.1% from 52w high · Below POC
BKNG 171.32 · -2.30% · Bear (below all) · RSI 29.5 OS · MACD Bear · -23.9% from 52w high · Below POC
PANW 375.09 · +0.31% · Bull (above all) · RSI 58.0 Neutral · MACD Bull · -6.0% from 52w high · Above POC
MU 927.60 · +0.39% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.9 Neutral · MACD Bear · -26.1% from 52w high · Below POC
LRCX 270.87 · -0.96% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 36.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -38.2% from 52w high · Below POC
KLAC 168.02 · -0.63% · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -45.3% from 52w high · Below POC
ADI 361.35 · +0.09% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 44.8 Neutral · MACD Bull · -19.0% from 52w high · Below POC
REGN 774.11 · -2.47% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 44.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -9.9% from 52w high · Above POC
SNPS 367.70 · -3.60% · Bear (below all) · RSI 34.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -31.8% from 52w high · Below POC
CDNS 273.96 · -1.83% · Bear (below all) · RSI 27.2 OS · MACD Bear · -34.3% from 52w high · Below POC
MELI 1,828.94 · -3.75% · Bear (below all) · RSI 41.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -28.2% from 52w high · Below POC
CRWD 242.49 · +3.02% · Bull (above all) · RSI 64.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -0.6% from 52w high · Above POC
MAR 337.24 · -0.95% · Bear (below all) · RSI 41.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -17.9% from 52w high · Below POC
ABNB 168.32 · -1.37% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 42.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.0% from 52w high · Above POC
MRVL 221.70 · +1.32% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 49.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -32.8% from 52w high · Below POC
DASH 198.26 · -2.59% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 38.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -30.6% from 52w high · Below POC
FTNT 172.37 · +1.29% · Bull (above all) · RSI 61.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -1.0% from 52w high · Above POC
CEG 259.89 · -1.77% · Bear (below all) · RSI 38.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -37.0% from 52w high · Below POC
WDAY 190.67 · -1.82% · Bull (above all) · RSI 52.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -23.7% from 52w high · Above POC
PYPL 53.81 · -0.41% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 43.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -32.1% from 52w high · Above POC
ORLY 85.16 · -2.36% · Bear (below all) · RSI 38.9 Neutral · MACD Bear · -21.7% from 52w high · Below POC



SECTOR GROUPING
Semiconductors - average +0.66%, 5 of 9 higher
AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL. The only group with a positive average. Leadership is bifurcated: QCOM and AMD hold full bullish stacks while AMAT (-43.1% from 52w high), KLAC (-45.3%) and LRCX (-38.2%) remain deeply broken. Semi-cap equipment is the weakest sub-group in the entire index.

Mega-cap Tech - average -0.81%, 2 of 8 higher
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, AVGO, TSLA. Only AAPL, MSFT and META hold bullish stacks. AVGO (RSI 32.3, -31.5% from high) and TSLA are below all three EMAs. NVDA has lost its 20 and 50 EMA but holds the 200 - a key level to watch given its index weight.

Software / Cloud - average -1.06%, 3 of 8 higher
ADBE, INTU, CRWD, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, FTNT, WDAY. The clearest split in the index: cybersecurity (CRWD, PANW, FTNT) is outright leadership while EDA (SNPS, CDNS) is in freefall - SNPS closed on a new 52-week low. INTU remains a wreck at -53.3% from its 52-week high.

Consumer / Internet - average -1.81%, 1 of 11 higher
COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, PYPL, ORLY, TMUS, CSCO. The worst group on the day and zero full bullish stacks. This is the yield-and-oil-sensitive cohort and it is being priced accordingly - travel (BKNG, MAR, ABNB) and discretionary retail (COST, ORLY) are leading the decline.

Healthcare / Biotech - average -1.34%
ISRG, REGN. Both lower. REGN gave up 2.47% but is only -9.9% from its 52-week high, the second-best relative position in the whole index.

Industrial / Other - average -1.04%
LIN, CEG. Both below all three EMAs. LIN at RSI 32.5 is approaching oversold. CEG is -37.0% from its high - the AI-power trade continues to unwind.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. QCOM - Long on pullback
Closed +4.25% at 187.80, the strongest large-cap move in the index. Full bullish EMA stack (20: 172.22 · 50: 172.64 · 200: 170.93) with all three clustered tightly beneath price, RSI 69.5, above POC 176.60, relative volume 1.18. A breakaway from a long base.
Entry: 182.50 (Camarilla S4 zone) · Stop: 174.80 (1.0x ATR below, under the EMA cluster) · T1: 195.65 · T2: 201.25 · R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.4 to T2
Confluence: EMA cluster + POC + classic S2 (176.61) all sit within 6 points beneath the stop - a deep, well-defended base. Risk: RSI at 69.5 means chasing the close is poor entry; wait for the retest.

2. CRWD - Long on 52-week high breakout
Closed +3.02% at 242.49, just 0.61% from its 52-week high of 243.98 - which was today's high. Full bullish stack with a wide, healthy separation (20: 213.93 · 50: 202.32 · 200: 159.39), RSI 64.6 with room, relative volume 1.42 - the second-highest in the index and on an UP day. This is accumulation.
Entry: 244.10 (stop-buy above the 52w high) · Stop: 235.90 (below Camarilla S4 235.96) · T1: 258.81 · T2: 271.00 · R:R: 1.8 to T1, 3.3 to T2
Confluence: Best-positioned name in the entire NAS100 relative to its 52-week high. Cybersecurity is the strongest sub-sector on the board. Risk: a hawkish Fed hits high-multiple software hardest - size accordingly.

3. FTNT - Long on 52-week high breakout
Closed +1.29% at 172.37, only 0.97% from its 52-week high of 174.05 (today's high). Full bullish stack (20: 160.88 · 50: 156.16 · 200: 125.06), RSI 61.4, above POC 158.10, relative volume 1.02.
Entry: 174.15 · Stop: 168.60 (below Camarilla S4 168.71 and today's low 167.40) · T1: 181.80 · T2: 188.00 · R:R: 1.4 to T1, 2.5 to T2
Confluence: Second cybersecurity name printing the same pattern as CRWD - sector confirmation rather than a single-stock story. Tight 5.55-point risk.

4. MELI - Short on retest
Closed -3.75% at 1,828.94 on relative volume 1.39. Lost all three EMAs (20: 1,908.61 · 50: 1,868.74 · 200: 1,881.80) and closed below POC 1,841.26. RSI 41.6 leaves plenty of downside room before oversold.
Entry: 1,845.00 short (retest of POC / pivot 1,847.84) · Stop: 1,888.00 (above today's high 1,886.36 and the 200 EMA) · T1: 1,789.70 · T2: 1,751.18 · R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.2 to T2
Confluence: POC, pivot, 50 EMA and 200 EMA all sit in a 46-point band overhead - a dense resistance shelf. Heavy-volume break below it.

5. SNPS - Short on 52-week low breakdown
Closed -3.60% at 367.70 with the highest relative volume in the index (1.50). Today's low of 362.55 is the 52-week low. Below all three EMAs (20: 401.72 · 50: 412.66 · 200: 443.82) and far below POC 413.39.
Entry: 362.40 short (break of the 52w low) · Stop: 378.20 (above Camarilla R4 378.11) · T1: 351.65 · T2: 340.74 · R:R: 0.7 to T1, 1.4 to T2
Confluence: Highest-conviction volume signature in the index, on the downside, at a 52-week low. Risk: R:R to T1 is below 1 - this is a runner trade, take partials at T1 and hold the balance for T2. RSI 34.6 is approaching oversold.



INTRADAY SETUPS - FOR WEDNESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER
Important: the Fed decision lands at 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Range-fade setups below are valid for the morning session only - flatten or widen stops before the announcement.

1. AAPL - Camarilla range fade (long)
Camarilla range is exceptionally tight (S4 329.45 to R4 333.23 - just 3.78 points on a 7.55 ATR stock), which is the classic Camarilla range-bound signature. Price closed at 331.34, mid-range, with a bullish EMA stack beneath.
Entry: 330.40 (Cam S3) · Stop: 329.30 (below Cam S4) · T1: 332.28 (Cam R3) · T2: 333.23 (Cam R4) · R:R: 1.7 to T1 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Compressed Camarilla range with trend support underneath. Fade S3, target R3.

2. NVDA - Camarilla breakout (long)
Camarilla range is only 3.06 points wide (S4 210.64 to R4 213.70) against a 6.75 ATR - a 2.2x ATR-to-range compression. That is a breakout signature, not a fade signature. NVDA closed +0.57% at 212.17, holding its 200 EMA (198.89) and its POC (210.26).
Entry: 213.75 (break of Cam R4) · Stop: 210.50 (below Cam S4) · T1: 215.20 (classic R2) · T2: 216.47 (classic R3) · R:R: 0.4 to T1, 0.8 to T2 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Valid breakout structure but the R:R is poor on the published targets - only worth taking if it runs, so trail rather than target. The real level is the 50 EMA at 214.69, sitting directly between entry and T1. A rejection there invalidates the trade.

3. AVGO - Pivot rejection (short)
Closed -1.58% at 339.27, below all three EMAs, RSI 32.3, -31.5% from its 52-week high. The 20 EMA (365.13) and 200 EMA (365.12) are almost exactly coincident 26 points overhead - a hard ceiling.
Entry: 341.48 short (classic pivot) · Stop: 345.10 (above Cam R4 344.42 and classic R1 345.05) · T1: 335.69 · T2: 332.12 · R:R: 1.6 to T1, 2.6 to T2 · Direction: Short
Reasoning: Clean pivot-rejection short with stacked resistance. Watch RSI 32.3 - close to oversold, so take T1 partials.

4. COST - Pivot rejection (short)
Closed -1.91% at 901.35, below all three EMAs (20: 926.25 · 50: 940.79 · 200: 957.49 - a perfect bearish cascade), RSI 37.3, well below POC 940.50, relative volume 1.10. The 900 round number is the immediate battleground.
Entry: 906.17 short (classic pivot) · Stop: 911.00 (above Cam R4 910.52) · T1: 895.43 · T2: 889.50 · R:R: 2.2 to T1, 3.4 to T2 · Direction: Short
Reasoning: Best intraday R:R on the board. Textbook bearish EMA cascade with every moving average above price and pointing down. Earnings 24 Sep - no event risk this week.

5. AMD - Camarilla breakout (long)
Closed +2.19% at 504.20, full bullish stack (20: 489.26 · 50: 485.52 · 200: 381.72), RSI 54.1 with plenty of room. Price closed fractionally below POC 505.11 and classic pivot 505.13 - reclaiming that band is the trigger.
Entry: 513.20 (break of Cam R4 513.09 and today's high 513.67) · Stop: 495.20 (below Cam S4 495.31) · T1: 521.29 · T2: 528.90 · R:R: 0.45 to T1, 0.87 to T2 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Strong structure but a wide 23.34 ATR makes the Camarilla stop expensive. Published R:R is below 1 - reduce size or use a tighter discretionary stop at 505.00 (POC/pivot), which lifts R:R to 2.0 to T1.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
AAPL - 331.34 (-0.52%)
Cam: S4 329.45 · S3 330.40 · S1 331.03 || R1 331.65 · R3 332.28 · R4 333.23
Classic: S3 325.77 · S2 327.06 · S1 329.20 || P 330.49 || R1 332.63 · R2 333.92 · R3 336.06
EMA 20 321.42 · EMA 50 315.45 · EMA 200 288.83 · POC 310.97
Prev H/L: 331.78 / 328.35 · 52w H/L: 344.57 / 235.03 · ATR14 7.55

MSFT - 496.91 (-1.68%)
Cam: S4 491.21 · S3 494.06 · S1 495.96 || R1 497.86 · R3 499.76 · R4 502.61
Classic: S3 482.64 · S2 489.09 · S1 493.00 || P 499.45 || R1 503.36 · R2 509.81 · R3 513.72
EMA 20 493.00 · EMA 50 468.18 · EMA 200 441.87 · POC 429.31
Prev H/L: 505.90 / 495.54 · 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 · ATR14 10.90

NVDA - 212.17 (+0.57%)
Cam: S4 210.64 · S3 211.41 · S1 211.92 || R1 212.42 · R3 212.93 · R4 213.70
Classic: S3 208.13 · S2 209.64 · S1 210.91 || P 212.42 || R1 213.69 · R2 215.20 · R3 216.47
EMA 20 218.41 · EMA 50 214.69 · EMA 200 198.89 · POC 210.26
Prev H/L: 213.94 / 211.16 · 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.27 · ATR14 6.75

AMZN - 248.42 (-2.02%)
Cam: S4 245.09 · S3 246.76 · S1 247.87 || R1 248.97 · R3 250.08 · R4 251.75
Classic: S3 239.95 · S2 243.59 · S1 246.00 || P 249.64 || R1 252.05 · R2 255.69 · R3 258.10
EMA 20 256.64 · EMA 50 255.61 · EMA 200 242.87 · POC 250.30
Prev H/L: 253.27 / 247.22 · 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 · ATR14 6.22

META - 670.24 (+0.70%)
Cam: S4 657.77 · S3 664.01 · S1 668.16 || R1 672.32 · R3 676.47 · R4 682.71
Classic: S3 635.33 · S2 645.77 · S1 658.00 || P 668.44 || R1 680.67 · R2 691.11 · R3 703.34
EMA 20 614.41 · EMA 50 602.67 · EMA 200 620.05 · POC 599.81
Prev H/L: 678.87 / 656.20 · 52w H/L: 790.80 / 520.26 · ATR14 21.41



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Breadth is genuinely poor. Only 11 of 40 names closed higher and only 11 of 40 hold their 20 EMA. A market where 27.5% of constituents are above their short-term average is not a healthy market, whatever the index prints.
2. MSFT MACD has crossed bearish (9.37 vs 12.46 signal) while still holding its full bullish EMA stack. On the second-largest index weight, momentum rolling over before price is an early-warning signal worth respecting.
3. Oversold-in-downtrend cluster. CDNS (RSI 27.2), BKNG (29.5), AVGO (32.3), LIN (32.5), AMAT (34.1), SNPS (34.6) are all oversold or near-oversold AND below all three EMAs. These are not bounce candidates - they are names where sellers are still in control.
4. Near 52-week lows. SNPS closed at 367.70 with a 52-week low of 362.55 - today's low WAS the 52-week low. COST (901.35 vs 844.06 low), CEG (259.89 vs 228.63), ORLY (85.16 vs 82.59) and BKNG (171.32 vs 150.14) are all in the lower quarter of their annual range.
5. Deep drawdowns persist. INTU -53.3%, KLAC -45.3%, AMAT -43.1%, LRCX -38.2%, NFLX -37.6%, ISRG -37.5%, CEG -37.0% from 52-week highs. Roughly a fifth of the index is in a bear market of its own.
6. META is the only overbought name at RSI 71.6 and it is still -15.3% from its 52-week high. Being overbought that far below the high is a rally within a downtrend, not a new uptrend.
7. Macro overhang. 10-year yield at a 2007 high of 5.02% and Brent above $107. Both are direct headwinds to the index's valuation multiple.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Wednesday 16 September
FOMC rate decision - 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET, with Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, followed by the Chair Warsh press conference at 19:30 UK. Current target range is 3.50-3.75%. Markets are pricing a 25bp HIKE as the base case. This is the single dominant risk event of the week for the NAS100. The key question is not the hike itself but whether it is framed as a one-off recalibration or the start of further tightening.

Ongoing macro drivers
10-year Treasury yield - touched 5.02%, highest since 2007. Every basis point above 5% is direct pressure on high-multiple tech.
Brent crude above $107, WTI above $104 - Gulf supply disruption and Strait of Hormuz concerns. Feeds the inflation side of the Fed's problem.
AI-safety commentary from senior industry figures continues to weigh on semiconductor and AI-infrastructure sentiment.

Component earnings - none of the 40 report this week
COST - Thursday 24 September, after the close (fiscal Q4).
MU - Wednesday 30 September, after the close (fiscal Q4).
The remaining 38 names are outside their reporting windows. No single-stock earnings risk in the NAS100 this week - the Fed is the only event that matters.



Report: 15 September 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - MONDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2026
Data: Close 14 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,127.16 | Change: -241.28 (-0.82%) | Range: 28,867.67 - 29,285.50



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,127.16, down 241.28 points (-0.82%), after trading as low as 28,867.67 intraday. The index recovered roughly 260 points off the session low into the close but still finished at the lower third of the daily range and below the prior day close of 29,368.44.
Monday was a violent rotation day rather than a broad liquidation. Reports that the leading frontier AI labs jointly called for an industry-wide slowdown in model capability development hit AI hardware and semiconductor names hard, while capital moved aggressively into cybersecurity and enterprise software. Adding pressure, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5.00% for the first time since 2023 before settling near 4.99%, the 30-year sat around 5.35%, and crude traded near 110 dollars. The VIX closed at 17.10, up 7.95%.
Bias: cautiously bearish into the FOMC. The index has lost both its 20 and 50 EMA, daily MACD has rolled to a bearish cross, and the Fed decision on Wednesday 16 September is being priced with roughly 85-90% odds of a rate hike. Downside momentum is real but not yet confirmed - the 200 EMA is still nearly 1,700 points below price and internals are split rather than uniformly weak.



TREND STRUCTURE
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA20 29,326.76 - BELOW by 199.6 points
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA50 29,216.17 - BELOW by 89.0 points
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA200 27,419.88 - ABOVE by 1,707.3 points
EMA classification: Bear (below 20/50). Price is beneath both short-term averages while the long-term uptrend is intact. The 20 EMA now sits above the 50 EMA by only 110 points - a compression that typically resolves into a decisive move. Structurally the index has printed a lower high and a lower low versus last week, with 29,655 (Tuesday high) the swing high to reclaim.
Phase: corrective pullback inside a primary uptrend. The bull case remains intact above the 50 EMA cluster; a sustained close beneath 28,900 would mark the first genuine trend damage since the summer advance.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 46.7 - neutral-to-soft, below the 50 midline for the first time in the recent sequence. Not oversold, which means there is room to fall before mean-reversion buyers are mechanically triggered. No bullish divergence present: price made a lower low and RSI confirmed it.
MACD: 3.3 vs signal 36.0, histogram -32.7 - fresh bearish crossover with the histogram expanding to the downside. The MACD line is now hovering barely above zero; a move below zero would confirm the momentum regime has flipped.
Volume and breadth: index volume was heavy at 1.21bn on the session. Component breadth was deeply split - 21 of the 40 tracked constituents are classified Bear on the strict EMA test, 13 Bull, 6 Mixed, and MACD is bearish on 26 of 40. That is a market with a clear internal fault line rather than a uniform sell-off.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R3 29,737.04 . R2 29,511.27 . R1 29,319.21 - classic pivots
29,326.76 - EMA20, the first structural level bulls must reclaim
29,500 / 29,655 - round number and last week swing high
Support
Pivot 29,093.44 - immediate intraday reference
S1 28,901.38 . S2 28,675.61 . S3 28,483.55 - classic pivots
28,867.67 - today low, the line in the sand for the bounce
29,216.17 - EMA50, now overhead resistance after today loss
28,500 / 29,000 - key round numbers
27,419.88 - EMA200, the structural bull line



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Day % . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI(14) zone . MACD . % from 52w high . vs 60d POC
MEGA-CAP TECH
AAPL . 333.08 . +0.24% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -3.3% from 52w high . Above POC
MSFT . 505.41 . +1.97% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.4 Strong . MACD Bear . -8.7% from 52w high . Above POC
NVDA . 210.96 . -3.36% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -10.8% from 52w high . Above POC
AMZN . 253.54 . -1.26% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -11.7% from 52w high . Above POC
META . 665.60 . +2.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 70.8 Overbought . MACD Bull . -15.8% from 52w high . Above POC
GOOGL . 349.39 . +3.22% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -14.5% from 52w high . Above POC
TSLA . 358.97 . -1.77% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -28.0% from 52w high . Below POC
NFLX . 80.32 . +3.77% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.9 Bullish . MACD Bear . -35.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SEMICONDUCTORS
AVGO . 344.72 . -4.77% . Bear (below all) . RSI 34.3 Very weak . MACD Bear . -30.4% from 52w high . Below POC
AMD . 493.41 . -4.40% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -15.6% from 52w high . Below POC
QCOM . 180.15 . -1.00% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -30.7% from 52w high . Above POC
TXN . 263.42 . -1.97% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.3 Weak . MACD Bull . -21.1% from 52w high . Below POC
AMAT . 424.21 . -7.07% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 34.7 Very weak . MACD Bear . -42.6% from 52w high . Below POC
MU . 924.03 . -5.25% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -26.4% from 52w high . Below POC
LRCX . 273.49 . -8.29% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 37.2 Very weak . MACD Bear . -37.6% from 52w high . Below POC
KLAC . 169.09 . -6.39% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.9 Very weak . MACD Bull . -45.0% from 52w high . Below POC
ADI . 361.02 . -4.69% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.6 Weak . MACD Bull . -19.0% from 52w high . Below POC
MRVL . 218.82 . -7.32% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.2 Weak . MACD Bull . -33.7% from 52w high . Below POC
SOFTWARE AND CLOUD
ADBE . 265.57 . +5.29% . Mixed (<20 >50 <200) . RSI 50.5 Bullish . MACD Bear . -28.4% from 52w high . Above POC
INTU . 339.15 . +5.47% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.5 Bullish . MACD Bear . -51.9% from 52w high . Above POC
PANW . 373.94 . +13.09% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Bullish . MACD Bear . -6.3% from 52w high . Above POC
CRWD . 235.38 . +13.85% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -1.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SNPS . 381.43 . -4.01% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.7 Very weak . MACD Bear . -29.3% from 52w high . Below POC
CDNS . 279.06 . -3.56% . Bear (below all) . RSI 28.9 Oversold . MACD Bear . -33.0% from 52w high . Below POC
FTNT . 170.18 . +9.04% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -2.1% from 52w high . Above POC
WDAY . 194.21 . +4.58% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -22.3% from 52w high . Above POC
CONSUMER AND INTERNET
COST . 918.91 . +1.56% . Bear (below all) . RSI 43.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -16.2% from 52w high . Below POC
BKNG . 175.35 . +0.82% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.0 Very weak . MACD Bear . -22.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MELI . 1,900.24 . +0.15% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.2 Weak . MACD Bear . -25.4% from 52w high . Above POC
MAR . 340.46 . +1.72% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -17.2% from 52w high . Below POC
ABNB . 170.65 . +0.27% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 44.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -11.8% from 52w high . Above POC
DASH . 203.54 . +0.79% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -28.7% from 52w high . Above POC
PYPL . 54.03 . +0.58% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -31.8% from 52w high . Above POC
ORLY . 87.22 . +1.63% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -19.8% from 52w high . Below POC
TMUS . 182.90 . +0.31% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.3 Bullish . MACD Bear . -25.1% from 52w high . Above POC
CSCO . 110.06 . -1.85% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.1 Weak . MACD Bull . -15.6% from 52w high . Below POC
HEALTHCARE AND INDUSTRIAL
ISRG . 377.94 . +2.38% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 53.0 Bullish . MACD Bull . -37.4% from 52w high . Below POC
REGN . 793.74 . +1.57% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -7.6% from 52w high . Above POC
LIN . 464.41 . -0.39% . Bear (below all) . RSI 33.4 Very weak . MACD Bear . -15.3% from 52w high . Below POC
CEG . 264.57 . -7.09% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.5 Weak . MACD Bear . -35.9% from 52w high . Below POC



SECTOR READ
Semiconductors - the damage zone. Every one of the ten semis tracked closed red: LRCX -8.29%, MRVL -7.32%, AMAT -7.07%, KLAC -6.39%, MU -5.25%, AVGO -4.77%, ADI -4.69%, AMD -4.40%, TXN -1.97%, QCOM -1.00%. Eight of the ten now sit below their 20 and 50 EMAs and nine are below their 60-day POC. AMAT is 42.6% off its 52-week high, KLAC 45.0%. This is not a one-day wobble - it is a sector in a defined downtrend.
Software and cybersecurity - the destination. CRWD +13.85%, PANW +13.09%, FTNT +9.04%, INTU +5.47%, ADBE +5.29%, WDAY +4.58%. CRWD closed at 235.38, just 1.7% off its 52-week high on 2.2x relative volume; PANW at 1.8x and FTNT at 1.39x. Money leaving AI capex plays is landing here, and the volume confirms it is real institutional flow rather than a squeeze.
Mega-cap tech - resilient. MSFT +1.97%, META +2.71%, GOOGL +3.22%, AAPL +0.24% all held up, and all four are Bull (above all) on the strict EMA test. NVDA -3.36% and AMZN -1.26% were the drags, both now Bear (below 20/50). The mega-cap bid is what stopped the index from breaking 28,800.
Consumer and internet - quietly weak. BKNG RSI 32.0 and Bear (below all), ORLY, MAR and COST all below every EMA. DASH and ABNB sit on sub-0.65 relative volume - no conviction either way.
Healthcare and industrial - LIN RSI 33.4 and CEG -7.09% are both Bear (below all). CEG is 35.9% off its high and was dragged down with the AI power-demand theme.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. CRWD - Long, breakout continuation
Entry: 239.80 on a break of today high . Stop: 226.50 (approx 1.0 ATR, below today VWAP-area low) . T1: 253.59 . T2: 267.80 . R:R: 1.04 to T1, 2.14 to T2
Confluence: closed at 235.38 having tagged a new 52-week high at 239.37. Bull (above all) with EMA20 at 210.92 and EMA200 at 158.56 far below. Relative volume 2.20 - the highest in the index. Price is 35.9 points above the 60-day POC of 199.50, so there is no volume shelf overhead to absorb the move. ATR 12.85.
2. PANW - Long, pullback to the pivot
Entry: 364.30 on a retest of the daily pivot . Stop: 348.00 (below EMA20 at 350.19) . T1: 388.28 . T2: 398.88 (52w high) . R:R: 1.47 to T1, 2.12 to T2
Confluence: +13.09% on 1.8x volume, Bull (above all), only 6.3% from the 52-week high. The 60-day POC at 341.47 sits just beneath the EMA20 at 350.19 - a genuine double support shelf. Chasing at 374 is poor risk; the pivot retest is the trade. ATR 19.43.
3. FTNT - Long, tight-stop breakout
Entry: 171.20 above today high . Stop: 164.00 (1.0 ATR, below Cam S4 at 164.20) . T1: 177.94 . T2: 184.93 . R:R: 0.94 to T1, 1.91 to T2
Confluence: +9.04% on 1.39x volume, Bull (above all), 2.1% from the 52-week high of 173.89. POC 157.08 and EMA20 159.67 cluster tightly below. The R:R to T1 is under 1 - this is a runner trade or skip it. ATR 7.15.
4. AMAT - Short, trend continuation
Entry: 419.50 on a break of today low . Stop: 442.00 (1.0 ATR, above today high) . T1: 405.46 . T2: 385.00 . R:R: 0.62 to T1, 1.53 to T2
Confluence: -7.07% on 1.23x volume with RSI at 34.7. Bear (below 20/50) with EMA20 at 469.93 and EMA50 at 494.42 far overhead - a 45-point and 70-point resistance wall. Price is 130 points below the 60-day POC of 554.78, meaning almost every buyer from the last quarter is underwater. The caveat: EMA200 sits at 423.55, right at the close, so the first test is whether 423 gives way. ATR 22.51.
5. CDNS - Short, oversold continuation with caution
Entry: 277.90 below today low . Stop: 289.50 (above today high) . T1: 264.47 . T2: 262.75 (52w low) . R:R: 1.16 to T1, 1.31 to T2
Confluence: Bear (below all) with the full stack - EMA20 307.72, EMA50 326.30, EMA200 330.79 - stacked above price. 33.0% from the 52-week high and only 6.1% above the 52-week low of 262.75. RSI is 28.9 - genuinely oversold, so size this small: oversold can stay oversold, but bounce risk is elevated. ATR 11.47.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. NAS100 - Pivot reclaim long
Direction: Long . Entry: 29,100 on an hourly close back above the daily pivot of 29,093 . Stop: 28,940 . Target: 29,319 (R1) then 29,327 (EMA20) . R:R: 1.37
Reasoning: the index closed 34 points beneath its own pivot after rallying 260 points off the low. A reclaim of the pivot on the open is the cleanest bullish tell, and R1 coincides almost exactly with the EMA20 - a natural profit target and a logical rejection point.
2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade
Direction: Long . Entry: 208.85 at Cam S4 . Stop: 206.00 . Target: 211.31 (Cam R1) then 212.84 (R1) . R:R: 0.86 to first target
Reasoning: NVDA closed at 210.96, essentially on its 60-day POC of 210.21 and its daily pivot of 210.89 - a triple confluence magnet. The Camarilla range is only 4.22 points wide, so this is a scalp, not a swing. RSI 43.9 with relative volume 0.97 suggests mean reversion rather than trend.
3. AVGO - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short . Entry: 341.20 below Cam S4 . Stop: 346.30 (Cam R3) . Target: 336.00 (S3) . R:R: 1.02
Reasoning: -4.77% with RSI 34.3 and Bear (below all). The Camarilla range is compressed at 6.98 points versus a 12.46 ATR, which is the classic Camarilla breakout condition - range width well below ATR. POC at 379.97 is 35 points overhead.
4. MSFT - Pivot bounce long
Direction: Long . Entry: 503.60 at the daily pivot . Stop: 496.50 (below Cam S4 at 497.37) . Target: 511.79 (R1) then 518.18 (R2) . R:R: 1.15 to R1
Reasoning: MSFT +1.97% and Bull (above all) on a soft tape - relative strength worth owning. EMA20 at 492.59 and Cam S4 at 497.37 form a support band beneath the pivot. POC 427.29 is a distant 78 points below, so nothing overhead blocks it.
5. LRCX - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short . Entry: 269.50 below Cam S4 . Stop: 275.50 (Cam R3) . Target: 264.13 (S3) . R:R: 0.90
Reasoning: -8.29% on 1.46x relative volume, the heaviest semiconductor conviction of the day. Closed at 273.49 against a low of 273.24 - it closed on its low, which is continuation behaviour. The Camarilla range is a compressed 4.47 points versus 16.15 ATR. Caution: EMA200 at 266.99 sits just under the target.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5
NVDA . Close 210.96
Cam: S4 208.85 . S3 209.90 . S1 210.61 || R1 211.31 . R3 212.02 . R4 213.07
Classic: S3 205.16 . S2 207.05 . S1 209.00 . P 210.89 . R1 212.84 . R2 214.73 . R3 216.68
EMA20 219.06 . EMA50 214.79 . EMA200 198.76 . POC 210.21 . ATR 7.04
Prev H 212.77 . Prev L 208.93 . 52w H 236.54 . 52w L 164.27
MSFT . Close 505.41
Cam: S4 497.37 . S3 501.39 . S1 504.07 || R1 506.75 . R3 509.43 . R4 513.45
Classic: S3 482.57 . S2 488.96 . S1 497.18 . P 503.57 . R1 511.79 . R2 518.18 . R3 526.40
EMA20 492.59 . EMA50 467.00 . EMA200 441.31 . POC 427.29 . ATR 10.94
Prev H 509.95 . Prev L 495.34 . 52w H 553.72 . 52w L 349.20
AAPL . Close 333.08
Cam: S4 330.79 . S3 331.94 . S1 332.70 || R1 333.46 . R3 334.22 . R4 335.37
Classic: S3 326.95 . S2 329.15 . S1 331.11 . P 333.31 . R1 335.27 . R2 337.47 . R3 339.43
EMA20 320.37 . EMA50 314.80 . EMA200 288.40 . POC 310.45 . ATR 7.77
Prev H 335.50 . Prev L 331.34 . 52w H 344.57 . 52w L 229.02
AVGO . Close 344.72
Cam: S4 341.23 . S3 342.98 . S1 344.14 || R1 345.30 . R3 346.46 . R4 348.21
Classic: S3 336.00 . S2 339.95 . S1 342.34 . P 346.29 . R1 348.68 . R2 352.63 . R3 355.02
EMA20 367.85 . EMA50 378.64 . EMA200 365.38 . POC 379.97 . ATR 12.46
Prev H 350.25 . Prev L 343.91 . 52w H 495.00 . 52w L 289.96
CRWD . Close 235.38
Cam: S4 222.55 . S3 228.97 . S1 233.24 || R1 237.52 . R3 241.79 . R4 248.21
Classic: S3 197.84 . S2 206.95 . S1 221.16 . P 230.27 . R1 244.48 . R2 253.59 . R3 267.80
EMA20 210.92 . EMA50 200.68 . EMA200 158.56 . POC 199.50 . ATR 12.85
Prev H 239.37 . Prev L 216.05 . 52w H 239.37 . 52w L 85.68



BEARISH WARNINGS
Index MACD bearish cross. NAS100 MACD 3.3 has crossed below its signal at 36.0 with the histogram at -32.7 and widening. The MACD line is a whisker above zero.
Full EMA breakdown in semis. AVGO, KLAC, SNPS and CDNS are all Bear (below all) - price beneath the 20, 50 and 200 EMAs simultaneously. LIN, COST, BKNG, MAR, CEG and ORLY are in the same condition outside the chip space. That is ten of forty names with no moving-average support left.
Oversold but still falling. CDNS RSI 28.9, BKNG 32.0, LIN 33.4, AVGO 34.3, AMAT 34.7, LRCX 37.2, KLAC 37.9, SNPS 38.7. Eight names under RSI 40 with no bullish divergence in any of them.
Names near 52-week lows. CDNS is 6.1% above its 52-week low of 262.75. AMAT at 424.21 is 42.6% below its high, KLAC 45.0% below, INTU 51.9% below.
Overbought caution. META RSI 70.8 after +2.71% - extended into resistance and vulnerable if the mega-cap bid fades.
Macro overhang. A 10-year yield at 4.99% having touched 5.00%, a 30-year at 5.35%, crude near 110 dollars, and an 85-90% priced probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. Long-duration growth multiples do not expand in that environment.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Tuesday 15 September - FOMC meeting begins (two-day). No major NASDAQ 100 constituent earnings scheduled before the open.
Wednesday 16 September - FOMC rate decision at 14:00 ET / 19:00 UK, Powell press conference at 14:30 ET. Advance Retail Sales for August at 08:30 ET. Lennar (LEN) reports after the close - not an index member but a read on rate-sensitive demand.
Thursday 17 September - post-FOMC positioning day, weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET.
Friday 18 September - quarterly triple witching expiry, typically the heaviest volume session of the quarter.
Earnings: a light week for the 40 tracked constituents. PANW, CRWD, ADBE and FTNT have all just reported - today outsized moves in those names reflect post-earnings repricing, which is why the volume profile is credible rather than speculative.



SUMMARY
A rotation, not a rout. The index lost 0.82% and both short-term moving averages, and the MACD has crossed bearish - but underneath, capital moved decisively from AI hardware into cybersecurity and enterprise software on genuine volume. The semiconductor complex is the clear structural loser; cybersecurity is the clear structural winner.
Everything between now and Wednesday evening is positioning. With an 85-90% priced probability of a Fed hike and the 10-year flirting with 5%, the risk is asymmetric to the downside for long-duration growth. Levels that matter: 28,867 on the downside, 29,327 (EMA20) on the upside. Trade the reaction, not the prediction.



Report: 14 September 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2026


Data: Close 11 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,385 est | Change: +281 (+0.96%) | Range: 29,038-29,250 (10 Sep official)
Note on the index print: Nasdaq had not published the official NDX settlement for 11 Sep at the time of writing. The last confirmed official NDX close is 29,103.51 on 10 Sep (H 29,250.41 / L 29,038.22). The 29,385 figure above is derived from the +0.96% Nasdaq move on 11 Sep and is an estimate. All 40 component prices, EMAs, pivots and Camarilla levels below are exact scanner values for the 11 Sep close.


MARKET OVERVIEW


US equities snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday. The Nasdaq closed +251.31 points (+0.96%) at 26,333 on the Composite, the S&P 500 gained +0.86% to 7,656 and the Dow added +0.98%. Nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher, led by Technology, Industrials and Communications - all up over 1%. Despite the bounce, the Nasdaq still finished the week down 0.7%.

The driver was a relief rally rather than a change of regime. August CPI came in mostly in line at +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y, but core CPI rose +0.3% m/m against +0.2% expected. Fed funds futures now price roughly a 90% chance of a rate hike at Wednesday 16 September FOMC, up from about 70% pre-CPI. The 10-year yield closed at 4.974%, its highest intraday level since October 2023, and the 2-year hit 4.65%. WTI settled at $100.05 after an 8% weekly gain, and the VIX traded near 18.8 - its first sustained move above 17 in 28 sessions.

Bias: Cautiously bearish into FOMC. Breadth was broad on the day (31 of 40 NAS100 names higher, average +1.10%) but the internal EMA structure is materially weaker than the index level implies. 19 of the 40 components remain below their 20 and 50-day EMAs, and only 8 hold a full bullish stack above all three. This is an oversold bounce inside a deteriorating tape, not a confirmed reversal.


TREND


Component EMA structure (strict close-versus-EMA test, all 40 verified programmatically):

Bull - above all three EMAs: 8 (AAPL, MSFT, META, AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL)
Bull - above 20/50, below 200: 3 (TSLA, TMUS, CEG)
Bear - below all three EMAs: 13 (AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, PYPL, ORLY)
Bear - below 20/50, above 200: 6 (GOOGL, AMAT, PANW, LRCX, KLAC, DASH)
Mixed: 10 (NVDA, AMZN, REGN, MELI, CRWD, ABNB, FTNT, WDAY - all below 20 above 50/200; CSCO, TXN - above 20 below 50, above 200)

Structure: Only 20% of the index sits in a clean bullish EMA stack. 13 names - almost a third - are in full bearish alignment. The mega-cap complex is split: AAPL, MSFT and META are structurally intact, while NVDA, AMZN and GOOGL have all lost their 20-day EMA. That divergence between the index and its own internals is the single most important observation in this report.

Phase: Late-stage distribution with a counter-trend rally in progress. The market is rotating out of software and into semiconductors and hardware on the Oracle AI-capex readthrough, while rate-sensitive and defensive names are being sold.


INDICATORS


RSI(14) distribution across the 40:

Overbought (70+): 0
Strong (60-70): 3 - META 67.2, QCOM 66.3, AAPL 62.8
Bullish (50-60): 9 - AMD 58.0, MSFT 56.7, ADI 56.1, MRVL 55.5, TSLA 54.5, CEG 53.7, MU 53.0, TXN 51.7, TMUS 51.5
Neutral (40-50): 22
Weak (30-40): 6 - BKNG 30.0, CDNS 32.7, LIN 34.5, COST 35.5, MAR 38.0, ORLY 38.9
Oversold (sub-30): 0

Divergence watch: ISRG closed +2.41% on relative volume of 1.35 with RSI still at 48.1 and price below all three EMAs - a bounce into supply, not a base. ADBE traded on relative volume of 2.16, more than double normal, and still finished below its 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs after the beat-and-raise quarter; that volume on a failed hold is distribution.

MACD: 16 bullish versus 24 bearish. The bullish cohort is dominated by semis (AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL, TXN, AMAT, KLAC, AVGO) plus AAPL, META, CSCO, TSLA, CEG. Strongest histograms: META +9.88, AMD +6.51, MU +3.89, QCOM +2.29. Deepest negative histograms: MELI -11.02, REGN -9.14, INTU -6.25, ADBE -5.20, COST -4.86, DASH -4.76, BKNG -4.52, PANW -4.15.

Volume: Conviction was thin. Only four names printed relative volume above 1.00 - ADBE 2.16, ISRG 1.35, AAPL 1.18, AMD 1.03 (and MAR 1.03, QCOM 1.02, ORLY 1.00). The median relative volume across the 40 was roughly 0.80. A 1% index day on below-average participation is a low-quality rally.


KEY INDEX LEVELS


Classic pivots computed from the last officially published NDX session (10 Sep: H 29,250.41 / L 29,038.22 / C 29,103.51). Friday cleared R2 on the estimated close, so treat R1/R2 as flipped support if the level holds Monday.

Resistance:
R3 29,555 - extension target
R2 29,343 - cleared Friday, now first support on a pullback
R1 29,223 - cleared Friday
Pivot: P 29,131
Support:
S1 29,011 - Thursday high inversion
S2 28,919 - loss here reopens the weekly downtrend
S3 28,799

Round numbers in play: 29,500 overhead, 29,000 the line that matters, then 28,500. A close back under 29,000 would confirm Friday as a failed bounce.


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40


Trend column uses the strict test: close versus each of the 20, 50 and 200-day EMA. All 40 classifications were verified programmatically against the raw closes - zero mismatches. POC is the 60-day volume-weighted point of control.


SECTOR GROUPING


Mega-cap Tech (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX, COST)
Average +1.02%. Split down the middle. AAPL +1.75% is the standout - Bull all, RSI 62.8, only 3.6% off its 52-week high, the strongest large-cap chart in the index. MSFT and META hold their stacks. NVDA is now below its 20-day EMA with RSI 49.8 and a bearish MACD - the AI bellwether has stopped leading. COST is the worst of the group: Bear all, RSI 35.5, 17.5% off highs.

Semiconductors (AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL)
Average +2.57% - the clear leadership group on the day. ADI +4.85%, MRVL +4.03%, TXN +3.82%, QCOM +2.88%, AMD +2.49%. The Oracle cloud-infrastructure result (+121% infrastructure revenue, $664bn backlog) lit up the memory and analog complex. But note the split: AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL are Bull all; AVGO, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC are all still below their 20 and 50-day EMAs and deep below POC. This is a first-day rotation, not an established uptrend across the group.

Software / Cloud (ADBE, INTU, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY, MSFT)
The weakest sector. Average +0.10%, and the only NAS100 group with multiple losers. PANW -2.32%, FTNT -1.75%, CRWD -1.02% on the Wedbush note arguing cyber budget is being redistributed to AI-native platforms rather than expanded. SNPS and CDNS are both Bear all with CDNS RSI at 32.7. INTU sits 54.4% below its 52-week high - the worst drawdown in the index.

Consumer / Internet (AMZN, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY, TMUS, CSCO)
Average +1.10%, flattered by CSCO +4.37% and TMUS +2.92%. Underneath, BKNG is the most oversold name in the index at RSI 30.0, Bear all, 22.7% off highs, and MAR, DASH and ORLY are all below their 20 and 50-day EMAs. Travel and discretionary are being repriced for $100 oil.

Healthcare / Biotech (ISRG, REGN)
ISRG -38.9% from its 52-week high and Bear all; REGN -1.48% on the day with a MACD histogram of -9.14. Healthcare lagged the broad tape on Friday and medtech remains a visible weak spot.

Industrial / Other (LIN, CEG, PYPL)
LIN is Bear all with RSI 34.5 and sits 7% below its POC - industrial gas demand reading through from the energy shock. CEG held above its 20 and 50-day EMAs but closed -0.43% and remains 31% off highs.


TOP SWING SETUPS


1. QCOM - LONG (highest-conviction setup)
Entry: 182.50 on a hold above Friday pivot 181.06 . Stop: 174.50 (1.04 ATR) . T1: 190.78 (R2) . T2: 196.09 (R3) . R:R: 1.70
Confluence: Bull all - close 181.97 above 20-EMA 169.57, 50-EMA 171.68 and 200-EMA 170.66, with all three EMAs clustered within 1.3% of each other in a textbook compression. RSI 66.3 is the second-strongest in the index and not yet overbought. MACD histogram +2.29 and rising. Closed +2.88% on relative volume 1.02. POC context: price is above the 60-day POC at 179.55, which now acts as the first defended support on any dip - a close back under 179.55 invalidates the thesis before the stop is reached.


2. ADI - LONG on POC reclaim
Entry: 384.60 on a break and hold above POC . Stop: 372.00 (1.13 ATR) . T1: 399.33 (R3) . T2: 412.00 . R:R: 2.17
Confluence: Biggest gainer in the index at +4.85%. Bull all - close 378.78 above 20-EMA 368.39, 50-EMA 375.54 and 200-EMA 349.74. MACD turned bullish with histogram +1.13. RSI 56.1 leaves plenty of room. POC context: the 60-day POC at 384.49 is the problem - price closed below it and stalled at the day high of 380.36. This is deliberately a breakout entry, not a chase: do not buy the close, wait for 384.60 to clear on volume. Relative volume was only 0.79 on Friday, so the move needs confirmation.


3. AMD - LONG on continuation
Entry: 518.00 . Stop: 493.10 (1.10 ATR, under S2) . T1: 544.05 (R3) . T2: 572.00 . R:R: 1.05 to T1, 2.17 to T2
Confluence: Bull all with the 200-EMA far below at 379.36 - a 36% cushion. MACD histogram +6.51, one of the strongest in the index. RSI 58.0. Closed +2.49% on relative volume 1.03, the only large semi with above-average participation. POC context: above the 60-day POC at 506.41, which aligns closely with S1 504.63 to form a solid 504-506 support shelf. Wide ATR of 22.64 means size down accordingly.


4. META - LONG, momentum leader
Entry: 659.50 on a break of R1 . Stop: 634.70 (1.16 ATR, under S2) . T1: 677.49 (R3) . T2: 700.00 . R:R: 0.73 to T1, 1.63 to T2
Confluence: Highest RSI in the index at 67.2 and the largest MACD histogram at +9.88. Bull all, and notably it has reclaimed the 200-EMA at 619.09 from below - the 20-EMA at 602.53 and 50-EMA at 597.23 sit well beneath, so the stack is bullish but stretched. POC context: 8.6% above the 60-day POC at 596.50, which is the furthest extension from value of any Bull-all name here. That is the risk: the R:R to T1 is poor, so this only works as a breakout-and-run trade. It did not work on Friday - the 664.24 high was rejected back to 648.03.


5. COST - SHORT (the cleanest bearish setup)
Entry: 900.00 on a break of Friday low 900.75 . Stop: 921.00 (1.36 ATR) . T1: 875.00 . T2: 850.00 . R:R: 1.19 to T1, 2.38 to T2
Confluence: Bear all with the EMAs stacked correctly against price - close 904.77 below 20-EMA 929.93, below 50-EMA 943.36, below 200-EMA 958.44. RSI 35.5 and weakening. MACD histogram -4.86. Closed +0.26% on a 6.61-point range, the narrowest of the 40 - compression under resistance. POC context: 4% below the 60-day POC at 942.23, meaning there is a wall of accepted volume overhead and almost nothing beneath until the 52-week low at 844.06. Consumer staples with $100 oil and a hiking Fed is not where the bid is.


INTRADAY SETUPS


1. AAPL - Camarilla long, pivot bounce
Direction: Long . Entry: 331.40 at cam S1 / classic pivot confluence . Stop: 329.40 (below cam S3 329.54) . T1: 333.18 (cam R1) . T2: 335.00 (cam R3) . R:R: 0.89 to T1, 1.80 to T2
Reasoning: Camarilla S1 at 331.36 and the classic pivot at 331.60 sit within 0.24 points of each other - the tightest confluence in the index. AAPL is the strongest chart in the NAS100 (Bull all, RSI 62.8, just 3.6% off its 52-week high) and posted the highest relative volume of any mega-cap at 1.18. Standard cam range-bound long off S1.


2. MSFT - Camarilla range fade
Direction: Long . Entry: 495.05 at cam S1 . Stop: 493.80 (below cam S3 493.87) . T1: 496.22 (cam R1) . T2: 497.39 (cam R3) . R:R: 0.94 to T1, 1.87 to T2
Reasoning: Friday close 495.63 sits almost exactly on the classic pivot 495.73. The cam range S1 495.04 to R1 496.22 is only 1.18 points wide on a 6.39-point session range - classic contraction. Relative volume 0.66 and an ATR of 10.66 say this is a rangebound day until a catalyst. Bull all structure gives the long side the edge.


3. PANW - Camarilla breakdown
Direction: Short . Entry: 322.80 on a break of cam S4 322.90 . Stop: 331.00 . T1: 318.86 (S2) . T2: 310.66 (S3) . R:R: 0.48 to T1, 1.49 to T2
Reasoning: The only cam S4 breakdown candidate with a fundamental catalyst behind it. Worst performer in the index at -2.32%. Bear 20/50 - close 330.65 below 20-EMA 347.69 and 50-EMA 338.21. Below the 60-day POC at 339.92. Cam S4 breakdowns are trend-day signals; below 322.90 the next real volume shelf is S3 at 310.66.


4. MRVL - Camarilla breakout continuation
Direction: Long . Entry: 242.20 on a break of cam R4 242.11 . Stop: 235.00 (back inside the cam range) . T1: 246.11 (R2) . T2: 252.03 (R3) . R:R: 0.54 to T1, 1.36 to T2
Reasoning: +4.03% on the day with a Bull-all stack (20-EMA 224.29, 50-EMA 221.25, 200-EMA 172.51) and a bullish MACD. Cam R4 at 242.11 is the trend-day trigger. Caveat: relative volume was only 0.70 and price is below the 60-day POC at 244.37, which sits just above the R4 trigger - expect the first attempt to be sold. Wait for acceptance above 244.40 before pressing.


5. BKNG - pivot rejection short
Direction: Short . Entry: 174.00 at the classic pivot 174.08 . Stop: 177.00 (above Friday high 176.78) . T1: 171.37 (S1) . T2: 168.83 (S2) . R:R: 0.88 to T1, 1.72 to T2
Reasoning: Lowest RSI in the index at 30.0 with Bear-all alignment - 20-EMA 193.14, 50-EMA 192.42, 200-EMA 187.87 all far above price at 173.92. MACD histogram -4.52. Below the 60-day POC at 188.70 by 8%. Risk note: RSI 30 is the oversold threshold, so this is a short into potential exhaustion - take T1 and do not press for T2 without a fresh lower high.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5


AAPL 332.27 +1.75%
Cam: S4 326.81 . S3 329.54 . S1 331.36 || R1 333.18 . R3 335.00 . R4 337.73
Classic: S3 317.05 . S2 321.68 . S1 326.97 || P 331.60 || R1 336.89 . R2 341.52 . R3 346.81
EMAs: 20 319.03 . 50 314.05 . 200 287.96 | POC 310.01 | Prev H/L 336.22 / 326.30 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 226.65

MSFT 495.63 +0.65%
Cam: S4 492.12 . S3 493.87 . S1 495.04 || R1 496.22 . R3 497.39 . R4 499.14
Classic: S3 486.09 . S2 489.34 . S1 492.48 || P 495.73 || R1 498.87 . R2 502.12 . R3 505.26
EMAs: 20 491.24 . 50 465.44 . 200 440.67 | POC 425.59 | Prev H/L 498.97 / 492.58 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

NVDA 218.29 -0.03%
Cam: S4 216.17 . S3 217.23 . S1 217.94 || R1 218.64 . R3 219.35 . R4 220.41
Classic: S3 213.11 . S2 215.63 . S1 216.96 || P 219.48 || R1 220.81 . R2 223.33 . R3 224.66
EMAs: 20 219.92 . 50 214.95 . 200 198.63 | POC 210.13 | Prev H/L 222.00 / 218.15 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27

AMD 516.13 +2.49%
Cam: S4 505.29 . S3 510.71 . S1 514.32 || R1 517.94 . R3 521.55 . R4 526.97
Classic: S3 484.92 . S2 493.14 . S1 504.63 || P 512.85 || R1 524.34 . R2 532.56 . R3 544.05
EMAs: 20 487.08 . 50 484.40 . 200 379.36 | POC 506.41 | Prev H/L 521.06 / 501.35 | 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.85

QCOM 181.97 +2.88%
Cam: S4 176.62 . S3 179.30 . S1 181.08 || R1 182.86 . R3 184.64 . R4 187.32
Classic: S3 166.93 . S2 171.34 . S1 176.65 || P 181.06 || R1 186.37 . R2 190.78 . R3 196.09
EMAs: 20 169.57 . 50 171.68 . 200 170.66 | POC 179.55 | Prev H/L 185.46 / 175.74 | 52w H/L 259.92 / 121.99


BEARISH WARNINGS


1. Structural breakdown beneath a rising index. 19 of 40 components closed below both their 20 and 50-day EMAs, and 13 are below all three. Only 8 hold a full bullish stack. An index that rallies 1% while a third of its members are in full bearish alignment is being carried by a handful of names.

2. Confirmed death-cross territory. The following have the 20-EMA below the 50-EMA with price below both - the bearish EMA cascade: AVGO (370.29/380.02), COST (929.93/943.36), LIN (480.01/490.61), ISRG (369.98/380.92), SNPS (407.82/415.85), CDNS (310.73/328.23), MAR (343.47/354.26), ORLY (88.01/88.87), BKNG (193.14/192.42 - inverted but both far above price), AMAT (474.74/497.29), LRCX (307.51/312.99), KLAC (184.25/193.89). Twelve names in active bearish EMA cascade.

3. Twenty-four of forty on bearish MACD. Despite 31 of 40 closing green, the momentum picture did not improve. Worst histograms: MELI -11.02, REGN -9.14, INTU -6.25, ADBE -5.20, COST -4.86, DASH -4.76, BKNG -4.52, PANW -4.15.

4. Names approaching 52-week lows. COST is 7.2% above its 52-week low of 844.06. ORLY is 3.9% above 82.59. CDNS is 10.1% above 262.75. ISRG is 12.4% above 328.57. NFLX is 18.9% above 65.08 and sits 38.2% below its high. INTU at -54.4% from its high is the deepest drawdown in the index.

5. Volume did not confirm. Median relative volume across the 40 was roughly 0.80. Only four names exceeded 1.00. A one-percent index day on 80% of normal participation, into a Fed meeting with a 90% hike probability, is the definition of a low-conviction bounce.

6. Macro overhang. 10-year at 4.974%, 2-year at 4.65%, 30-year approaching 5.38% versus the June 2007 high of 5.40%, WTI at $100.05 after an 8% week, and record weekly outflows of $40.44bn from US large-cap funds per LSEG Lipper. None of that supports a sustained multiple expansion in high-duration tech.


EVENTS CALENDAR


Macro - the week ahead:
Wednesday 16 Sep - FOMC rate decision. Roughly 90% probability of a 25bp hike priced after Friday CPI. This is the single dominant risk event for the NAS100.
Wednesday 16 Sep - BCB policy announcement
Thursday 17 Sep - Bank of England policy announcement
Friday 18 Sep - Bank of Japan rate decision, hike expected. The yen is at a seven-month high against the dollar.
Also next week: September New York and Philadelphia Fed indices, August retail sales, industrial production, weekly jobless claims.

Component earnings:
No NAS100 constituent from the 40 tracked here is scheduled to report in the next two sessions. ADBE reported on 10 September - Q2 adjusted EPS $6.13 beat by $0.05, revenue +13% y/y to $6.76bn, but net new ARR fell roughly 38% y/y and the stock remains below all three EMAs. ORCL (not in this 40) reported on 10 September with cloud infrastructure revenue +121% to $7.4bn and a $664bn RPO backlog - that result is the direct driver of the semiconductor and memory strength described above, and is the readthrough to watch for MU, MRVL, AMD and ADI.

Sector catalysts:
Cybersecurity - Wedbush assumed coverage with a redistribution thesis: AI-native platforms win, standalone vulnerability management loses. PANW added to Best Ideas. This is why PANW, FTNT and CRWD were the only meaningful red in the index on a broad up day.
Energy - any move in Brent above $100 or further Strait of Hormuz disruption feeds straight into the PPI pipeline and the Fed path.


Report: 11 September 2026 22:55 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Thursday 10 September 2026
Data: Close 10 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,103.51 | Change: -318.04 (-1.08%) | Range: 29,038.22 - 29,250.41


Market Overview
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,103.51, down 318.04 points (-1.08%) - a fourth consecutive down day and the lowest close since 1 September. The index opened at 29,097.33, traded a tight 212-point range (29,038.22 - 29,250.41) and finished in the lower third of it. A weak close that leaves sellers in control into Friday.
Three things drove the tape: crude holding above 100 dollars pushed Treasury yields to multi-year highs, semiconductors were hit again on AI capex-peak concerns, and positioning turned defensive ahead of Friday's CPI print. The VIX rose 8.4% to 17.84, its highest close since late July, but still below the 20 panic threshold.
Breadth inside the 40 tracked NDX names was poor: 14 advancers, 26 decliners, with only 19 of 40 above their 60-day VWAP (POC). Semiconductors were the epicentre - the group averaged -2.62% with 9 of 10 names lower.
Bias: Bearish below 29,223 - the short-term trend is down, but the index holds well above its rising EMA200. Neutral-to-bearish into CPI.


Trend Structure
EMA stack (index): Close 29,103.51 | EMA20 29,345.60 | EMA50 29,213.77 | EMA200 27,570.86
The index is now below both EMA20 and EMA50 but comfortably above EMA200 - the classic Bear (below 20/50) configuration, meaning a correction inside an intact primary uptrend. EMA20 has rolled over and is converging on EMA50 from above; a cross there would be the first genuine medium-term warning. The index sits 5.6% above its rising EMA200 and 5.1% below the 52-week high of 30,660.60.
Structure: Lower highs from 29,655.73 (8 Sep) to 29,563.60 (9 Sep) to 29,250.41 (10 Sep), and lower lows from 29,400.70 to 29,334.40 to 29,038.22. A textbook three-day distribution sequence.
Phase: Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend undergoing a normal pullback. Nothing has broken - but nothing has stabilised either. The 29,000 round number below and the 29,213 EMA50 above now define the fight.


Momentum and Indicators
RSI(14): 46.1 - below the 50 midline. No bullish divergence: price made a lower low and RSI made a lower low with it, confirming the move. Not oversold, so there is room to fall.
MACD: 23.95 versus signal 49.42, histogram -25.47 and expanding negative. MACD crossed below its signal line on 9 September and downside momentum is accelerating. It remains above zero, so this is a momentum correction rather than a trend reversal.
Volume: Notable relative-volume readings: ADBE 1.69x (earnings day), AAPL 1.63x (accumulation), ISRG 1.51x, QCOM 1.41x. Crucially, the heavy chip losses came on below-average volume (MU 0.94x, AMD 0.88x, AMAT 0.68x) - selling without conviction, which is mildly encouraging for a bounce.
Volatility: VIX 17.84 (+8.4%), VIX RSI 60.6 and its MACD has just crossed positive. Fear is building but is nowhere near extreme.


Key Index Levels
Resistance
R1 29,223 - classic pivot R1, sitting on the EMA50 at 29,213. The level bulls must reclaim.
R2 29,343 - pivot R2, with EMA20 at 29,345. A daily close above here neutralises the whole pullback.
R3 29,435 - pivot R3 and the 9 Sep close of 29,421. Full recovery level.
Support
S1 29,011 - pivot S1 and the psychological 29,000 handle. First real test.
S2 28,919 - pivot S2, backed by the 27 August swing area.
S3 28,799 - pivot S3. Below this the pullback becomes a 6%+ drawdown.
Classic pivots: S2 28,918.52 | S1 29,011.02 | P 29,130.71 | R1 29,223.21 | R2 29,342.90
Camarilla: S4 28,986.81 | S3 29,045.16 || R3 29,161.86 | R4 29,220.21
Round numbers: 29,000 (critical), 28,500, 29,500, 30,000


Component Signals - All 40 Tracked NDX Names
AAPL 326.57 +3.56% | Bull (above all) | RSI 58.9 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -5.2% from 52w high | Above POC
MSFT 492.44 +0.16% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.0 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -11.1% from 52w high | Above POC
NVDA 218.36 -2.37% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -7.7% from 52w high | Above POC
AMZN 251.89 -0.20% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -12.3% from 52w high | Above POC
META 644.38 -1.42% | Bull (above all) | RSI 66.4 Strong | MACD Bull | -18.5% from 52w high | Above POC
GOOGL 332.60 +0.59% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.3 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -18.6% from 52w high | Below POC
AVGO 360.83 -0.97% | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.4 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -27.1% from 52w high | Below POC
TSLA 363.56 -1.16% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 53.7 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -27.1% from 52w high | Above POC
COST 902.38 -0.02% | Bear (below all) | RSI 34.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.7% from 52w high | Below POC
NFLX 76.01 -0.03% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -40.0% from 52w high | Above POC
AMD 503.60 -3.36% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.1 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -13.9% from 52w high | Below POC
ADBE 248.83 -2.37% | Bear (below all) | RSI 40.2 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -32.9% from 52w high | Above POC
QCOM 176.88 +0.27% | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -31.9% from 52w high | Below POC
TMUS 177.16 -0.10% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -27.5% from 52w high | Below POC
LIN 461.62 -1.08% | Bear (below all) | RSI 28.9 Oversold | MACD Bear | -15.8% from 52w high | Below POC
ISRG 360.46 +2.04% | Bear (below all) | RSI 42.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -40.3% from 52w high | Below POC
INTU 312.77 -0.37% | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.5 Weak | MACD Bear | -55.6% from 52w high | Above POC
CSCO 107.44 -1.82% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 37.2 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.6% from 52w high | Below POC
TXN 258.82 -1.06% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 42.5 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -22.5% from 52w high | Below POC
AMAT 454.01 -3.17% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 40.8 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -38.6% from 52w high | Below POC
BKNG 174.33 +0.52% | Bear (below all) | RSI 30.3 Weak | MACD Bear | -22.5% from 52w high | Below POC
PANW 338.49 +1.01% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.7 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -15.1% from 52w high | Below POC
MU 979.91 -4.66% | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.6 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -21.9% from 52w high | Above POC
LRCX 298.01 -5.65% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.1 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -32.0% from 52w high | Below POC
KLAC 177.18 -3.13% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.8 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -42.4% from 52w high | Below POC
ADI 361.25 -1.05% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 42.5 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -19.0% from 52w high | Below POC
REGN 793.26 -1.78% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.1 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -7.7% from 52w high | Above POC
SNPS 397.17 +1.00% | Bear (below all) | RSI 44.4 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -26.4% from 52w high | Below POC
CDNS 284.95 +0.12% | Bear (below all) | RSI 29.0 Oversold | MACD Bear | -31.6% from 52w high | Below POC
MELI 1,906.24 +1.59% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -25.2% from 52w high | Above POC
CRWD 208.86 +0.51% | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.1 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -10.7% from 52w high | Above POC
MAR 329.07 -0.74% | Bear (below all) | RSI 31.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -19.9% from 52w high | Below POC
ABNB 167.65 -1.17% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 41.0 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -13.3% from 52w high | Above POC
MRVL 226.96 -3.43% | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.9 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -31.2% from 52w high | Below POC
DASH 201.03 +1.92% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 39.9 Weak | MACD Bear | -29.6% from 52w high | Above POC
FTNT 158.85 +1.04% | Bull (above all) | RSI 50.4 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -8.6% from 52w high | Above POC
CEG 285.97 -2.70% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 54.7 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -30.7% from 52w high | Above POC
WDAY 185.09 -0.52% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.0 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -25.9% from 52w high | Above POC
PYPL 53.31 +2.19% | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.3 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -32.7% from 52w high | Above POC
ORLY 85.51 -0.66% | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.3 Weak | MACD Bear | -21.3% from 52w high | Below POC
Summary: 9 Bull (above all EMAs) | 2 Bull (above 20/50) | 5 Mixed | 10 Bear (below 20/50) | 14 Bear (below all EMAs). Only 12 of 40 have MACD above signal. That is a market with very narrow leadership.


Sector Grouping
Mega-cap Tech (7) - average -0.12%
AAPL +3.56%, GOOGL +0.59%, MSFT +0.16%, AMZN -0.20%, TSLA -1.16%, META -1.42%, NVDA -2.37%. Six of seven trade above their POC - the mega-caps are where money is hiding. AAPL's 3.56% move on 1.63x volume was the best large-cap performance of the day and pulled the index off its low.
Semiconductors (10) - average -2.62%
The wreck of the day. LRCX -5.65%, MU -4.66%, MRVL -3.43%, AMD -3.36%, AMAT -3.17%, KLAC -3.13%, TXN -1.06%, ADI -1.05%, AVGO -0.97%, QCOM +0.27%. Only 1 of 10 above POC. Semi-cap equipment (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) is the weakest sub-group, all well below EMA20/50 and 32-42% off their highs.
Software and Cloud (9) - average -0.16%
FTNT +1.04%, PANW +1.01%, SNPS +1.00%, CDNS +0.12%, INTU -0.37%, WDAY -0.52%, CRWD +0.51%, CSCO -1.82%, ADBE -2.37%. Mixed, but the relative outperformance versus semis is notable. Only CRWD and FTNT hold a full bull EMA stack. ADBE fell into its post-close print.
Consumer and Internet (10) - average +0.35%
The day's best group. PYPL +2.19%, DASH +1.92%, MELI +1.59%, BKNG +0.52%, NFLX -0.03%, COST -0.02%, TMUS -0.10%, ORLY -0.66%, MAR -0.74%, ABNB -1.17%. The caveat matters: zero of the ten carries a bullish EMA stack. This was oversold names bouncing, not leadership.
Healthcare and Biotech (2) - average +0.13%
ISRG +2.04% on 1.51x volume, the strongest reversal candle of the day off its 328.57 base, though still 40.3% below its high. REGN -1.78%, holding above EMA50 and EMA200.
Industrial and Other (2) - average -1.89%
CEG -2.70% lost its EMA200 (285.97 versus 286.97) - a fresh long-term trend break in the power/AI-infrastructure theme. LIN -1.08% with RSI at 28.9, the most oversold name in the sample and 15.8% off its high.


Top Swing Setups
1. AAPL - LONG (highest conviction)
Entry: 327.00 (break of the 326.74 day high) | Stop: 317.10 (1.25 ATR, below EMA20 317.64) | T1: 337.00 | T2: 344.50 | R:R: 1.8
Confluence: The only mega-cap with a full bullish EMA stack (326.57 above 317.64 / 313.31 / 287.51), a fresh MACD bull cross (2.36 versus 1.57), RSI 58.9 with room above, and 1.63x relative volume on a 3.56% up day. It closed 5.5% above its 60-day POC of 309.53, so value sits well below and acts as a floor. T2 targets the 52-week high at 344.57.
2. META - LONG
Entry: 646.50 (above Camarilla R1 646.34) | Stop: 626.00 (below Camarilla S4 632.63 and pivot S2 628.65) | T1: 671.40 | T2: 690.00 | R:R: 2.1
Confluence: Strongest RSI in the index at 66.4 and the widest bullish MACD spread anywhere (11.60 versus signal 1.67). It has reclaimed EMA200 at 618.80 and holds 644.38 above all three EMAs, 8.2% above its POC of 595.68. Today's -1.42% was profit-taking inside a 21.48 ATR, not distribution. Risk: still 18.5% below its 52-week high, so treat it as a recovery trade, not a breakout.
3. QCOM - LONG (POC reclaim)
Entry: 180.60 (reclaim of the 60-day POC at 180.44) | Stop: 171.00 (day low) | T1: 190.00 | T2: 196.00 | R:R: 1.6
Confluence: The only green semiconductor on a day the group lost 2.62%, on 1.41x volume with a wide 11.40 range. RSI 61.6 is the second strongest in the index and MACD has just crossed bullish (1.73 versus -0.31). Price holds all three EMAs (168.27 / 171.27 / 170.55) which are tightly coiled - a classic squeeze base. Only take it above 180.44; below that the POC is a ceiling, not a floor.
4. COST - SHORT
Entry: 898.50 (break of the 899.00 day low) | Stop: 918.60 (1.25 ATR) | T1: 870.00 | T2: 850.00 | R:R: 2.4
Confluence: Full bear stack - 902.38 below EMA20 932.57, EMA50 944.94 and EMA200 958.98, with EMA20 already under EMA50. MACD -11.04 versus signal -5.76 and widening. RSI 34.1 and falling. It trades 4.3% below its POC of 943.24 and only 6.9% above the 52-week low at 844.06. Caveat: RSI in the low 30s means a bounce is possible - respect the stop.
5. MAR - SHORT
Entry: 328.50 (break of the 328.60 day low) | Stop: 338.00 (1.25 ATR) | T1: 316.00 | T2: 308.00 | R:R: 2.2
Confluence: Bear stack (329.07 under 344.40 / 355.06 / 342.41), EMA20 below EMA50, MACD -8.58 under signal -6.85, RSI 31.1, and 9.5% below its POC of 363.53. Consumer travel has been the quiet underperformer all quarter.


Intraday Setups for Friday
1. AAPL - Camarilla breakout LONG
Entry: 329.45 (above Camarilla R3 329.38) | Stop: 327.40 | T1: 332.20 (cam R4) | T2: 333.50 (pivot R2) | Direction: Long | R:R: 2.0
Reasoning: Textbook Camarilla long-breakout condition - the close at 326.57 sits between S3 and R3, and a clean push through R3 targets R4. Backed by the strongest daily momentum in the index. Invalidated below the 323.27 pivot.
2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade (two-sided)
Entry: Sell 219.40 (cam R3) or Buy 217.32 (cam S3) | Stop: 220.50 short, 216.25 long | T1: 218.85 pivot | T2: Opposite Camarilla band | Direction: Both | R:R: 1.5
Reasoning: NVDA closed 218.36 inside a narrow 217.32 to 219.40 Camarilla band, having traded only a 3.79-point range against a 7.10 ATR. That is heavy compression, which favours fading the extremes until the band breaks. EMA20 at 220.09 caps rallies, so the short leg is the better one.
3. AMZN - Camarilla range fade
Entry: Sell 252.87 (cam R3) or Buy 250.91 (cam S3) | Stop: 253.90 short, 249.90 long | T1: 251.54 pivot | T2: 249.93 short, 253.50 long | Direction: Both, short-biased | R:R: 1.5
Reasoning: AMZN closed 251.89, essentially on its pivot, after a 3.57-point range against a 6.26 ATR. The Bear (below 20/50) trend makes the short side the higher-probability leg, with POC 249.80 the magnet below.
4. MU - Camarilla breakdown SHORT
Entry: 972.50 (below cam S3 972.90) | Stop: 985.00 (above the 984.14 pivot) | T1: 965.89 (cam S4) | T2: 958.64 (pivot S2) | Direction: Short | R:R: 1.1
Reasoning: MU fell 4.66% and closed at 979.91, below its pivot, with a 53.78 ATR - by far the most volatile name in the sample. The S3 breakdown is the momentum-continuation trade. It still holds a bullish EMA stack (959.31 / 930.36 / 678.31), so this is a counter-trend intraday scalp only. Take T1 and do not marry it.
5. MSFT - classic pivot bounce LONG
Entry: 487.50 (pivot S1 487.45, EMA20 490.78 just above) | Stop: 482.40 (pivot S2) | T1: 490.99 (pivot) | T2: 495.97 (pivot R1) | Direction: Long | R:R: 1.7
Reasoning: MSFT held green (+0.16%) in a red tape, sits above all three EMAs (490.78 / 464.20 / 440.12) and 16% above its POC of 424.66. A morning flush into S1 and that EMA20 shelf is the cleanest defensive long location in the mega-caps.


Key Levels Dashboard - Top 5 Weightings
AAPL - 326.57
Cam: S4 320.94 | S3 323.76 | S1 325.63 || R1 327.51 | R3 329.38 | R4 332.20
Classic: S3 309.58 | S2 313.04 | S1 319.81 | P 323.27 | R1 330.04 | R2 333.50 | R3 340.27
EMAs: 20 317.64 | 50 313.31 | 200 287.51 | POC 309.53 | Prev H/L 326.74 / 316.51 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 225.95
MSFT - 492.44
Cam: S4 487.75 | S3 490.10 | S1 491.66 || R1 493.22 | R3 494.78 | R4 497.13
Classic: S3 478.93 | S2 482.47 | S1 487.45 | P 490.99 | R1 495.97 | R2 499.51 | R3 504.49
EMAs: 20 490.78 | 50 464.20 | 200 440.12 | POC 424.66 | Prev H/L 494.52 / 486.00 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20
NVDA - 218.36
Cam: S4 216.28 | S3 217.32 | S1 218.01 || R1 218.71 | R3 219.40 | R4 220.44
Classic: S3 212.92 | S2 215.06 | S1 216.71 | P 218.85 | R1 220.50 | R2 222.64 | R3 224.29
EMAs: 20 220.09 | 50 214.81 | 200 198.44 | POC 210.00 | Prev H/L 220.99 / 217.20 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27
AMZN - 251.89
Cam: S4 249.93 | S3 250.91 | S1 251.56 || R1 252.22 | R3 252.87 | R4 253.85
Classic: S3 246.36 | S2 247.97 | S1 249.93 | P 251.54 | R1 253.50 | R2 255.11 | R3 257.07
EMAs: 20 258.04 | 50 255.96 | 200 242.56 | POC 249.80 | Prev H/L 253.15 / 249.58 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00
META - 644.38
Cam: S4 632.63 | S3 638.51 | S1 642.42 || R1 646.34 | R3 650.25 | R4 656.13
Classic: S3 615.15 | S2 628.65 | S1 636.51 | P 650.01 | R1 657.87 | R2 671.37 | R3 679.23
EMAs: 20 597.74 | 50 595.15 | 200 618.80 | POC 595.68 | Prev H/L 663.50 / 642.14 | 52w H/L 790.80 / 520.26


Bearish Warnings
1. Bearish EMA crosses (EMA20 below EMA50) in 18 of 40 names: LRCX, KLAC, ADI, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, ORLY, GOOGL, AVGO, TSLA, COST, QCOM, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, CSCO, TXN, AMAT. That is 45% of the sample in a medium-term bearish moving-average configuration.
2. MACD below signal in 28 of 40 names. Only twelve have positive momentum: AAPL, META, TSLA, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, MRVL and CEG - and several of those are early bottoming crosses in beaten-down semis rather than genuine strength.
3. Deep drawdowns from 52-week highs: INTU -55.6%, KLAC -42.4%, ISRG -40.3%, NFLX -40.0%, AMAT -38.6%, ADBE -32.9%, PYPL -32.7%, LRCX -32.0%, QCOM -31.9%, CDNS -31.6%, MRVL -31.2%, CEG -30.7%. The index is only 5.1% off its high while a third of these names are in bear markets - index strength is being carried by very few shoulders.
4. Names within 10% of their 52-week low: ORLY (3.5% above), COST (6.9%), TMUS (6.9%), CDNS (8.4%), SNPS (8.5%), ISRG (9.7%).
5. Deeply oversold, watch for capitulation: LIN RSI 28.9, CDNS 29.0, BKNG 30.3, MAR 31.1, COST 34.1. Oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not a buy signal - but it does raise short-squeeze risk on any soft CPI print.
6. CEG has lost its EMA200 (285.97 versus 286.97) on a 2.70% decline - a fresh long-term trend break in the power and AI-infrastructure theme.
7. No bullish RSI divergences anywhere in the sample. Price weakness is fully confirmed by momentum.


Events Calendar
Tonight - after the US close (10 September)
ADBE - Q3 FY2026 results reported after the bell. EPS 6.13 versus 5.84 expected, a 4.97% beat. ADBE closed -2.37% at 248.83 on 1.69x volume ahead of the print, sits below all three EMAs and is 32.9% off its high. The reaction gap will set the tone for the software group on Friday.
ORCL - Q1 FY2027 results after the close, call at 17:00 ET. Not an NDX component, but the most important single read-through for AI capex sentiment. A soft RPO number would hit AVGO, MU, AMD and the semi-cap names hardest.
Friday 11 September
13:30 UK / 08:30 ET - US CPI (August). The dominant event. With crude above 100 dollars and Treasury yields at multi-year highs, a hot headline print is the main downside risk into the weekend. It is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets.
Next week
Tuesday to Wednesday 15-16 September - FOMC meeting. Decision Wednesday 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. The target range is currently 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since December 2025.
Later in September
Wednesday 30 September - MU (Micron) Q4 results, after the close. After today's 4.66% fall and the memory sector's recent volatility, this is the highest-risk single-name event on the NDX calendar.
No other tracked NDX component reports in the next two sessions.


Summary
Four down days, a lost EMA50, negative MACD, RSI below 50, breadth of 14 up against 26 down, and 45% of tracked names in a bearish EMA cross. The bear case is well supported. What it is not, yet, is a trend change: the index sits 5.6% above a rising EMA200, MACD is still above zero, VIX is only 17.84, and the mega-caps - led by AAPL - are absorbing the selling rather than leading it.
The honest read is a correction inside an uptrend, driven by two things the tape cannot control: oil above 100 dollars and the yield pressure that follows. Friday's CPI resolves it one way or the other.
Levels that decide it: reclaim 29,223 (EMA50 and pivot R1) and the pullback is over. Lose 29,000 and the next real shelf is 28,799.
Playbook: Stay selective and long only what still works - AAPL, META, MSFT, and QCOM on a POC reclaim. Avoid semi-cap equipment entirely until AMAT, LRCX and KLAC can close back above their EMA20s. Size down into CPI: a 212-point index range is unusually tight and typically resolves with an outsized move.


Report: 10 September 2026 22:00 GMT | Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Wednesday 9 September 2026
Data: Close 9 Sep 2026 | NAS100 (NQ front-month): 29,538.75 | Change: -292 (-0.98%) | Range: 29,489.75 - 29,625.50



MARKET OVERVIEW
Third consecutive down day for the US majors. The Dow shed 405.41 points (-0.77%) to 52,380.66, the S&P 500 lost 0.48% to 7,636.36 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.64% to 26,253.34. NAS100 front-month futures settled near 29,538.75, off roughly 292 points (-0.98%) with an intraday band of 29,489.75 to 29,625.50 - a contained 136-point range, so the damage was drift rather than distribution.

The three drivers:
1. Oil. Brent tagged $100 for the first time in over a month after the US struck five Iranian oil tankers and fighting around the Strait of Hormuz escalated. WTI traded near $94.
2. Yields. The 10-year Treasury note pushed to 4.857%, its highest since November 2023, after Treasury said it would triple its long-dated buyback operation to $6 billion.
3. The Fed. Rate-HIKE odds for the 15-16 September FOMC now sit near 60% (CME), up from a day earlier. That is the single most important number on the board this week.

Underneath the index, breadth was ugly but concentrated: 13 advancers, 27 decliners across our 40-stock NAS100 sample, average change -0.35%. The index was carried almost entirely by META +6.55% on the launch of Muse, its autonomous AI agent (Mizuho Outperform, $750 target; KeyBanc Overweight, $780). Semis also held up - MRVL +4.26%, AMD +3.04%, MU +2.75%, QCOM +1.33%. Everything consumer-facing was sold.

Bias: Cautiously bearish into inflation data. Price is not broken, but the internals are, and the market is pricing a hike into a tape that is already three days lower.



TREND
Using strict EMA classification (close versus each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA), the 40-name sample splits:

Bull - above all three EMAs (9): MSFT, NVDA, META, AMD, QCOM, MU, LRCX, MRVL, CEG
Bull - above 20/50, below 200 (1): TSLA
Mixed (7): AAPL, REGN, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY, ABNB (all below 20, above 50 and 200), MELI (below 20, above 50, below 200)
Bear - below 20/50, above 200 (9): AMZN, GOOGL, CSCO, TXN, AMAT, PANW, KLAC, ADI, DASH
Bear - below all three EMAs (14): AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, PYPL, ORLY

Structure: 23 of 40 names sit in a bearish EMA configuration versus 10 bullish. More telling, 13 of 40 now have the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA - a live or completed death-cross state: META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. META and CEG are the exceptions that have already recovered above all three EMAs; the rest are still repairing.

Phase: The index is in a narrow, high-level distribution phase. Leadership has narrowed to AI infrastructure and one mega-cap catalyst. That is a late-stage look, not a broadening advance.



INDICATORS
RSI(14): Only one name is overbought - META at 70.4, stretched after a 6.55% day. Two are oversold: BKNG 29.2 and CDNS 28.7. The bulk of the list is clustered 38-46, which is the signature of a market grinding sideways-to-lower rather than one in free-fall. Average sample RSI is roughly 46.
Divergence watch: META printed a new swing high on RSI 70.4 with the 50 EMA still below the 200 EMA - momentum has run ahead of structure. QCOM (RSI 61.2) is up on the day but remains 32.1% below its 52-week high and sits below its 60-day VWAP POC at 181.18 - the rally has not yet reclaimed value.

MACD: Bearish on 28 of 40 names. The 12 bullish histograms are META (+9.52), MU (+8.69), AMD (+5.49), TSLA (+2.77), QCOM (+1.99), CEG (+1.72), KLAC (+1.27), LRCX (+1.05), TXN (+0.50), AAPL (+0.43), NVDA (+0.42) and AMAT (+0.38). Note that ten of those twelve are semis or AI-adjacent. The widest bearish histograms are INTU (-6.47), MELI (-7.13), REGN (-6.06), COST (-5.19), PANW (-4.87) and DASH (-4.80).

Volume / relative volume: Conviction was one-sided. BKNG rv 2.17 on a -3.81% break and META rv 2.05 on the +6.55% gap are the only two genuine high-participation moves. AAPL rv 1.59 on an iPhone-event day that ended -0.28% is a notable non-event. MAR rv 1.57 and GOOGL rv 1.45 both traded heavy on down closes. Critically, the semiconductor rally came on light volume - AMD rv 1.21, MU rv 0.86, MRVL rv 0.81, LRCX rv 0.73. Treat the chip strength as unconfirmed.

Value: Only 18 of 40 names closed above their 60-day VWAP POC. More than half the index is trading below fair value from the last quarter.



KEY INDEX LEVELS - NAS100
Resistance:
R3 / round number - 30,000 - psychological, untested this week
R2 - 29,832 - Tuesday close / today opening reference; reclaim needed to void the three-day slide
R1 - 29,626 - session high, first hurdle on any bounce

Support:
S1 - 29,490 - session low; a clean break turns the drift into a trend
S2 - 29,300 - measured extension of the three-day range
S3 / round number - 29,000 - major psychological and the likely target if CPI runs hot

Classic pivots (derived from the session range): S2 29,392 | S1 29,466 | P 29,551 | R1 29,625 | R2 29,710
Round numbers in play: 29,000 / 29,500 / 30,000



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: TICKER | Close | Day % | Trend (strict EMA) | RSI zone | MACD | % from 52w high | POC

AAPL | 315.34 | -0.28% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 49.3 Neutral | MACD Bull | -8.5% vs 52wH | Above POC
MSFT | 491.65 | -0.47% | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.6 Bullish | MACD Bear | -11.2% vs 52wH | Above POC
NVDA | 223.67 | -0.91% | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.3 Bullish | MACD Bull | -5.4% vs 52wH | Above POC
AMZN | 252.40 | -1.78% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.1 Neutral | MACD Bear | -12.1% vs 52wH | Above POC
META | 653.69 | +6.55% | Bull (above all) | RSI 70.4 Overbought | MACD Bull | -17.3% vs 52wH | Above POC
GOOGL | 330.65 | -2.28% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 39.4 Weak | MACD Bear | -19.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
AVGO | 364.38 | -1.13% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.2 Neutral | MACD Bear | -26.4% vs 52wH | Below POC
TSLA | 367.81 | -0.06% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 55.6 Bullish | MACD Bull | -26.3% vs 52wH | Above POC
COST | 902.60 | -0.83% | Bear (below all) | RSI 34.2 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.7% vs 52wH | Below POC
NFLX | 76.03 | -0.96% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.6 Neutral | MACD Bear | -40.0% vs 52wH | Above POC
AMD | 521.10 | +3.04% | Bull (above all) | RSI 60.4 Strong | MACD Bull | -10.9% vs 52wH | Above POC
ADBE | 254.86 | -0.93% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.0 Neutral | MACD Bear | -31.3% vs 52wH | Above POC
QCOM | 176.40 | +1.33% | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.2 Strong | MACD Bull | -32.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
TMUS | 177.34 | -2.39% | Bear (below all) | RSI 44.1 Neutral | MACD Bear | -27.4% vs 52wH | Below POC
LIN | 466.65 | -0.37% | Bear (below all) | RSI 31.7 Weak | MACD Bear | -14.9% vs 52wH | Below POC
ISRG | 353.24 | +0.88% | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.4 Weak | MACD Bear | -41.5% vs 52wH | Below POC
INTU | 313.94 | -1.56% | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.9 Weak | MACD Bear | -55.5% vs 52wH | Above POC
CSCO | 109.43 | +0.24% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.8 Neutral | MACD Bear | -16.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
TXN | 261.59 | +1.03% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.7 Neutral | MACD Bull | -21.7% vs 52wH | Below POC
AMAT | 468.85 | -0.83% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.4 Neutral | MACD Bull | -36.6% vs 52wH | Below POC
BKNG | 173.43 | -3.81% | Bear (below all) | RSI 29.2 Oversold | MACD Bear | -22.9% vs 52wH | Below POC
PANW | 335.10 | -0.56% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.3 Neutral | MACD Bear | -16.0% vs 52wH | Below POC
MU | 1027.77 | +2.75% | Bull (above all) | RSI 60.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -18.1% vs 52wH | Above POC
LRCX | 315.84 | -1.43% | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.9 Bullish | MACD Bull | -28.0% vs 52wH | Below POC
KLAC | 182.91 | -3.21% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.6 Neutral | MACD Bull | -40.5% vs 52wH | Below POC
ADI | 365.07 | +0.51% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.3 Neutral | MACD Bear | -18.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
REGN | 807.65 | -0.33% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 53.7 Bullish | MACD Bear | -6.0% vs 52wH | Above POC
SNPS | 393.22 | +0.30% | Bear (below all) | RSI 42.6 Neutral | MACD Bear | -36.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
CDNS | 284.60 | +0.17% | Bear (below all) | RSI 28.7 Oversold | MACD Bear | -31.7% vs 52wH | Below POC
MELI | 1876.33 | -2.59% | Mixed (<20 >50 <200) | RSI 46.5 Neutral | MACD Bear | -26.4% vs 52wH | Above POC
CRWD | 207.80 | -1.06% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 50.6 Bullish | MACD Bear | -11.2% vs 52wH | Above POC
MAR | 331.52 | +0.83% | Bear (below all) | RSI 32.6 Weak | MACD Bear | -19.3% vs 52wH | Below POC
ABNB | 169.63 | -2.81% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 42.8 Neutral | MACD Bear | -12.3% vs 52wH | Above POC
MRVL | 235.01 | +4.26% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.5 Bullish | MACD Bear | -28.8% vs 52wH | Below POC
DASH | 197.25 | -1.59% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 36.2 Weak | MACD Bear | -30.9% vs 52wH | Below POC
FTNT | 157.22 | -0.16% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 48.7 Neutral | MACD Bear | -9.6% vs 52wH | Above POC
CEG | 293.91 | -1.72% | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -28.8% vs 52wH | Above POC
WDAY | 186.05 | -0.12% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 49.6 Neutral | MACD Bear | -25.5% vs 52wH | Above POC
PYPL | 52.17 | -1.90% | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.4 Weak | MACD Bear | -34.1% vs 52wH | Below POC
ORLY | 86.08 | +0.22% | Bear (below all) | RSI 39.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -20.8% vs 52wH | Below POC



SECTOR GROUPING
Semiconductors (10) - avg +0.63%, avg RSI 51.3, 5 bullish / 5 bearish EMA structure
AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL. The one group with real bid. MU, AMD, MRVL, LRCX and QCOM are all above every EMA. But the split is exactly even and the laggards are deep - KLAC -40.5% and AMAT -36.6% from their 52-week highs. This is a two-tier sector: memory and AI-compute working, WFE (wafer fab equipment) still in a downtrend.

Mega-cap Tech (7) - avg +0.11%, avg RSI 52.5, 4 bullish / 2 bearish
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA. Flat only because of META. Strip it out and the group averages roughly -0.96%. GOOGL -2.28% and AMZN -1.78% both lost their 20 and 50 EMAs. AAPL closed -0.28% on its own product event with rv 1.59 - heavy volume, no progress.

Healthcare / Biotech (2) - avg +0.28%, avg RSI 45.5
ISRG, REGN. REGN is the healthiest chart on the board by drawdown (-6.0% from its 52-week high) but its MACD histogram is -6.06 and it closed just under its 20 EMA. ISRG is below all three EMAs and 41.5% off its high.

Industrial / Other (2) - avg -1.04%, avg RSI 46.6
LIN, CEG. Complete divergence: CEG is above all three EMAs with RSI 61.6 and a bullish MACD; LIN is below all three with RSI 31.7, its weakest reading in months.

Software / Cloud (9) - avg -0.41%, avg RSI 43.1, 0 bullish / 6 bearish
ADBE, INTU, CSCO, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY. Not a single name in this group is above all three EMAs. All nine print a bearish MACD histogram. INTU is 55.5% below its 52-week high, SNPS -36.1%, CDNS -31.7%. This is the broken end of the index.

Consumer / Internet (10) - avg -1.58%, avg RSI 38.6, 0 bullish / 8 bearish
COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, PYPL, ORLY, TMUS. The worst group by every measure. Eight of ten are in a bearish EMA structure, average RSI is under 40, and BKNG (-3.81%), ABNB (-2.81%), MELI (-2.59%) and TMUS (-2.39%) all took real damage. With Brent at $100 this is exactly the group you would expect to be sold - travel, discretionary and payments.

Read-through: Money is not leaving the index, it is rotating hard into AI infrastructure and out of anything exposed to the consumer or to enterprise software budgets. That rotation is late and narrow.


TOP SWING SETUPS

1. AMD - LONG on pullback
Entry: 510.00 | Stop: 497.00 | T1: 538.50 | T2: 550.25 | R:R: 2.2 / 3.1
Close 521.10, +3.04%, above all three EMAs (20 at 481.96, 50 at 482.27, 200 at 376.72). RSI 60.4, MACD histogram +5.49. Confluence: the 510 entry stacks pivot S1 at 509.38, Camarilla S4 at 509.86 and the 60-day VWAP POC at 507.45 in a three-point band. Stop at 497 sits under pivot S2 (497.65) and is roughly 0.56 ATR (ATR 23.22) below entry. POC context: price is 2.7% above value - buying the retest of value in an uptrend. Caveat: rv only 1.21, so the move lacks volume confirmation.

2. MU - LONG on pullback
Entry: 1,008.00 | Stop: 968.00 | T1: 1,070.90 | T2: 1,099.45 | R:R: 1.6 / 2.3
Close 1,027.77, +2.75%, above all three EMAs (957.14 / 928.34 / 675.28). RSI 60.6, MACD histogram +8.69 - the second-widest bullish histogram in the index. Confluence: entry sits between Camarilla S4 (1,000.21) and pivot S1 (999.24) with the EMA20 at 957 as deeper backup. Stop 968 is below the POC at 972.52 and pivot S2 at 970.71, about 0.74 ATR (ATR 53.75). POC context: 5.7% above value, the widest premium of the long candidates - accept slightly worse R:R for the strongest momentum profile on the board.

3. CEG - LONG on pullback
Entry: 289.00 | Stop: 281.00 | T1: 302.40 | T2: 312.00 | R:R: 1.7 / 2.9
Close 293.91, -1.72%, but still above all three EMAs (282.08 / 275.27 / 286.98). RSI 61.6, MACD histogram +1.72. Confluence: 289 sits just under Camarilla S4 (290.97) and just above the EMA200 (286.98); the stop at 281 is below the EMA20 (282.08) and roughly 0.82 ATR (ATR 9.81). POC context: 10.3% above the POC at 266.49 - extended versus value, so size accordingly. The power-and-AI-datacentre theme is the reason this one holds up while the rest of the non-tech complex does not. Note the 50 EMA is still below the 200 - a repaired but not yet confirmed structure.

4. MAR - SHORT on bounce
Entry: 338.00 | Stop: 348.00 | T1: 316.90 | T2: 312.85 | R:R: 2.1 / 2.5
Close 331.52 and below all three EMAs (346.01 / 356.12 / 342.54). RSI 32.6, MACD histogram -1.84, rv 1.57. Confluence: the 338 entry sits between Camarilla R4 (337.76) and pivot R2 (339.57), with the EMA200 at 342.54 capping above. Stop 348 is above the EMA20 and roughly 1.3 ATR (ATR 7.73). Targets are pivot S2 (316.89) and S3 (312.86). POC context: price is 9.1% below the POC at 364.68 - selling into a value-rejected bounce. Macro fit: Brent at $100 is a direct margin hit for hotels and travel.

5. COST - SHORT on bounce
Entry: 909.00 | Stop: 926.00 | T1: 886.80 | T2: 870.00 | R:R: 1.3 / 2.3
Close 902.60, -0.83%, below all three EMAs (935.75 / 946.67 / 959.55) and with the 50 EMA below the 200 - a genuine death cross. RSI 34.2, MACD histogram -5.19. Confluence: 909 clusters pivot R1 (908.41) and Camarilla R4 (908.54); the stop at 926 is above pivot R3 (919.21) and just over 1 ATR (ATR 16.32). POC context: 4.4% below the POC at 944.33. Risk flag: COST is only 6.9% above its 52-week low - crowded short, expect sharp squeezes.



INTRADAY SETUPS
Camarilla method: where the prior range is under half the ATR the day is classed breakout, otherwise reversion.

1. NVDA - Camarilla BREAKOUT long
Prior range 2.72 versus ATR 7.15 = 0.38 - a compression day, breakout mode.
Direction: Long | Entry: above 225.20 | Stop: 224.40 | T1: 227.16 | T2: 228.13 | R:R: 2.5 / 3.7
Trigger is a break of Camarilla R4 (225.17). Stop below Camarilla R3 (224.42). Targets are pivot R2 and R3. Price is above all three EMAs and 6.6% above the POC at 209.88, so the underlying structure supports the long side. Abort the idea if price loses the pivot at 224.44 before triggering.

2. MSFT - Camarilla BREAKOUT long
Prior range 4.59 versus ATR 11.17 = 0.41 - breakout mode.
Direction: Long | Entry: above 494.20 | Stop: 492.05 | T1: 496.54 | T2: 498.68 | R:R: 1.1 / 2.1
Break of Camarilla R4 (494.17), stop under Camarilla R1 (492.07). MSFT is above all three EMAs (490.60 / 463.05 / 439.59) and a huge 16.0% above its POC at 423.71. The one caution is a bearish MACD histogram (-3.67) - this is a structure trade, not a momentum trade, so take T1 rather than pressing.

3. AAPL - PIVOT / Camarilla BOUNCE long
Prior range 9.25 versus ATR 7.63 = 1.21 - wide range, reversion mode.
Direction: Long | Entry: 312.85 | Stop: 310.20 | T1: 314.80 | T2: 317.88 | R:R: 0.7 / 1.9
The cleanest confluence on the board: Camarilla S3 at 312.80 and the 50 EMA at 312.77 are the same level, with the POC at 309.02 and Camarilla S4 at 310.25 immediately below to define the stop. Targets are the daily pivot (314.80) and Camarilla R3 (317.88). Skip T1 as a standalone - the trade only pays at T2. AAPL closed -0.28% on rv 1.59 after the iPhone keynote, so expect follow-through volume either way.

4. GOOGL - Camarilla BREAKDOWN short
Prior range 3.95 versus ATR 8.18 = 0.48 - breakout mode.
Direction: Short | Entry: below 328.45 | Stop: 329.60 | T1: 326.18 | T2: 324.47 | R:R: 2.0 / 3.5
Break of Camarilla S4 (328.48), stop above Camarilla S3 (329.56). Targets pivot S2 and S3. GOOGL lost both its 20 EMA (341.74) and 50 EMA (346.83) today on a -2.28% close with rv 1.45, and sits 5.1% below its POC at 348.39. The 200 EMA at 326.36 sits between T1 and T2 - expect it to slow the move, so bank partial at 326.50.

5. AMZN - Camarilla BREAKDOWN short
Prior range 4.04 versus ATR 6.47 = 0.62 - marginal, treat as breakout with tighter risk.
Direction: Short | Entry: below 250.15 | Stop: 251.30 | T1: 248.54 | T2: 246.43 | R:R: 1.4 / 3.2
Break of Camarilla S4 (250.18), stop above Camarilla S3 (251.29). AMZN closed -1.78% below its 20 and 50 EMAs (258.69 / 256.13) with RSI 44.1 and a bearish MACD. It is still marginally above its POC at 249.71 - that level is the pivot for the whole idea, so a failure to hold below 249.70 on the retest voids the trade.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5

NVDA - Close 223.67
Cam: S4 222.17 | S3 222.92 | S1 223.42 || R1 223.92 | R3 224.42 | R4 225.17
Classic: S3 219.97 | S2 221.72 | S1 222.69 | P 224.44 | R1 225.41 | R2 227.16 | R3 228.13
EMA20 220.27 | EMA50 214.66 | EMA200 198.24 | POC 209.88
Prev H/L 226.18 / 223.46 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27

MSFT - Close 491.65
Cam: S4 489.13 | S3 490.39 | S1 491.23 || R1 492.07 | R3 492.91 | R4 494.17
Classic: S3 484.91 | S2 487.36 | S1 489.50 | P 491.95 | R1 494.09 | R2 496.54 | R3 498.68
EMA20 490.60 | EMA50 463.05 | EMA200 439.59 | POC 423.71
Prev H/L 494.39 / 489.80 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - Close 315.34
Cam: S4 310.25 | S3 312.80 | S1 314.49 || R1 316.19 | R3 317.88 | R4 320.43
Classic: S3 301.19 | S2 305.55 | S1 310.44 | P 314.80 | R1 319.69 | R2 324.05 | R3 328.94
EMA20 316.70 | EMA50 312.77 | EMA200 287.12 | POC 309.02
Prev H/L 319.15 / 309.90 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 225.95

META - Close 653.69
Cam: S4 643.08 | S3 648.38 | S1 651.92 || R1 655.46 | R3 659.00 | R4 664.31
Classic: S3 622.91 | S2 630.74 | S1 642.21 | P 650.04 | R1 661.51 | R2 669.34 | R3 680.81
EMA20 592.83 | EMA50 593.14 | EMA200 618.54 | POC 594.52
Prev H/L 657.86 / 638.56 | 52w H/L 790.80 / 520.26

AMD - Close 521.10
Cam: S4 509.86 | S3 515.48 | S1 519.23 || R1 522.97 | R3 526.72 | R4 532.34
Classic: S3 488.95 | S2 497.65 | S1 509.38 | P 518.08 | R1 529.81 | R2 538.51 | R3 550.24
EMA20 481.96 | EMA50 482.27 | EMA200 376.72 | POC 507.45
Prev H/L 526.79 / 506.36 | 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.85



BEARISH WARNINGS

1. Death-cross cluster. Thirteen of the forty now have the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA: META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. CDNS is the tightest (331.64 versus 332.20) and could confirm on any further weakness. INTU is the widest by far (330.78 versus 411.45).

2. MACD breadth. 28 of 40 histograms are negative. The bullish twelve are concentrated almost entirely in semis and AI infrastructure - if that single theme rolls over there is nothing underneath it.

3. META overbought into a falling tape. RSI 70.4 after a one-day +6.55% news gap, with the 50 EMA still below the 200 EMA and price 9.9% above the POC at 594.52. Gaps on a single product announcement fill more often than they extend. Do not chase 653.

4. Names near 52-week lows. ORLY is only 4.2% above its low, COST 6.9%, TMUS 7.1%, SNPS 7.4%, ISRG 7.5%, CDNS 8.3%. Six names within 10% of their lows inside an index near its highs is a serious internal divergence.

5. Drawdown depth. INTU is -55.5% from its 52-week high, ISRG -41.5%, KLAC -40.5%, NFLX -40.0%, AMAT -36.6%, SNPS -36.1%, PYPL -34.1%. Roughly a fifth of the sample is in a private bear market.

6. Below-value majority. 22 of 40 closed below their 60-day VWAP POC. The average NAS100 constituent is trading under the price where most of the last quarter changed hands.

7. Consumer and software are already broken. Zero bullish EMA structures across nineteen names in those two groups combined. That is not a rotation, it is an exit.

8. The macro setup. Brent at $100, the 10-year at 4.857% and 60% odds of a Fed HIKE next week is a triple headwind for long-duration equity. A hot inflation print is the obvious trigger for a break of 29,490.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Economic data (all times UK):
Thu 10 Sep - US PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, 13:30. First read on whether the oil move is feeding producer prices.
Fri 11 Sep - US CPI and core CPI, 13:30. The week decides here. With hike odds at 60%, a hot core print likely takes the index through 29,490 toward 29,000.
Mon 15 - Tue 16 Sep - FOMC. Fed speakers are in blackout until 17 September, so there will be no official guidance before the decision. Positioning will be driven entirely by the data.

Earnings - NAS100 constituents:
No NAS100 names reported today. Chewy and American Eagle Outfitters delivered the consumer read-through, and neither is in the index.
ADBE is the next NAS100 name of consequence, with fiscal Q3 results due in the second week of September - confirm the exact date with the company IR calendar before positioning. ADBE closed at 254.86, below all three EMAs and 31.3% off its 52-week high, so a miss lands on an already broken chart.

Company events:
Apple held its annual iPhone launch today - the first keynote under new CEO John Ternus. AAPL closed -0.28% on rv 1.59. Elevated volume with no price progress on an event day is usually a sell-the-news tell; watch whether 312.77 (the 50 EMA) holds this week.
Meta launched Muse, its autonomous AI agent, with a free tier plus $20 and $100 monthly plans. Mizuho reiterated Outperform with a $750 target, KeyBanc Overweight at $780.

Macro watch: Brent crude and the Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the primary exogenous risk. Any further escalation pushes oil higher, yields higher and the index lower.



SUMMARY
A quiet 136-point range that hides a genuinely poor internal picture. 27 of 40 down, 23 of 40 in bearish EMA structure, 28 of 40 with bearish MACD, 22 of 40 below value, and a leadership base narrowed to semis plus one news-driven mega-cap. The index has not broken - 29,490 is intact and 30,000 is still the obvious magnet if CPI cooperates - but there is very little underneath it. Trade the levels, keep size modest into Thursday and Friday, and respect that this market is now pricing a rate hike rather than a cut.

Report: 9 September 2026 22:00 GMT | Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - TUESDAY 8 SEPTEMBER 2026
Data: Close 8 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,507.70 | Change: -36.45 (-0.12%) | Range: 29,400.70 - 29,655.73



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 reopened after the Labor Day break with a gap-up to 29,645.18, tagged 29,655.73 in the first hour and then bled lower all session to close at 29,507.70, down 36.45 points (-0.12%). A 255-point range, well inside the 377-point ATR(14), and a close in the lower half of the day. The index gave back the entire open but held above Friday's low - a stall, not a reversal.

Drivers were macro, not tech. Brent pushed toward $100 and WTI toward $95 as Iran moved closer to an Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz traffic, reviving inflation angst. Friday's blowout August payrolls print (162,000 vs ~53,000 expected, unemployment 4.1%) has flipped the usual script - good jobs data now reads as higher odds of a Fed hike on 16 September, currently priced near a coin flip. An escalating US-Canada trade spat took the Dow down 1.18% (52,786.07) and the S&P 500 down 0.58% (7,673.52); the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,421.41. The NAS100's -0.12% was the best of the majors - semis did the heavy lifting.

Bias: Cautiously constructive above 29,400. The index is above all three EMAs with MACD histogram compressing toward a bullish cross, but momentum is neutral and the entire week's risk (PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, FOMC the following week) sits ahead. Two-way, not trending.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack is fully bullish: price 29,507.70 > EMA20 29,365.77 > EMA50 29,209.93 > EMA200 27,335.92. Textbook Stage 2 alignment on the index.

Structure is less clean than the stack suggests. The 52-week high is 30,762.20 and the index is 4.08% below it. Since the 2 June closing peak of 30,660.60 the index has carved a series of lower highs - 30,328.79 (50-day high), then 30,195.72 (20-day high), and now 29,655.73. Meanwhile the lows have risen: 28,875.96 on 24 August, 28,953.26 on 1 September. That is a contracting range between roughly 28,900 and 30,200, price now sitting mid-to-upper.

Phase: Late-stage consolidation inside a primary uptrend. The EMA200 at 27,335.92 is 7.4% below spot - the long-term trend is not in question. The question is whether the 30,200 lid breaks or the 28,900 floor gives first, and Friday's CPI is the most likely trigger.



INDICATORS
RSI(14) - 52.95 (prior 53.58). Dead neutral. No divergence worth trading: the 27 August swing high at 29,641.56 printed RSI 54.9 and today's 29,655.73 intraday high closed back at 52.95 - flat momentum against a marginally higher high. That is mild negative divergence at best, and on a two-day sample it is noise. RSI has not touched 70 since the June peak nor 30 since the spring, which is the signature of a range.

MACD - 53.32 vs signal 56.88, histogram -3.57. Still below the signal line, so technically bearish, but the histogram has compressed hard: -49.7 on 26 August, -27.9 on 3 September, -11.6 on 4 September, -3.57 today. That is four straight sessions of narrowing. A bullish crossover is one decent green day away. Watch it - a cross above signal with price through 29,660 is the cleanest bull trigger on the board.

Volume / breadth. Internals were the story. Only 14 of the 40 tracked components advanced against 26 decliners, yet the index lost just 0.12% - classic mega-cap and semi weighting absorbing broad weakness. 20 of 40 closed above their 60-day VWAP POC, an exact 50-50 split. Only 12 of 40 have a bullish MACD. Breadth is materially weaker than the index print implies.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R3 29,897 . R2 29,776 . R1 29,642 (classic pivots)
29,655.73 - today's high and Friday's high (29,655.22) to the tick. Double top, the single most important level on the chart.
29,752.78 - 28 August swing high.
30,000 - round number, then 30,195 (20-day high) and 30,328 (50-day high).

Support
S1 29,387 . S2 29,266 . S3 29,132 (classic pivots)
29,400.70 - today's low, sitting right on S1 and just above the EMA20.
29,365.77 - EMA20. First real trend support.
29,209.93 - EMA50, reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 29,236.89.
29,000 - round number, then 28,953 (1 Sep low) and 28,875.96 (24 Aug low, the floor of the range).

Pivot set: S2 29,266.35 . S1 29,387.02 . P 29,521.38 . R1 29,642.05 . R2 29,776.41
Note the index closed 13.7 points below the daily pivot - marginally bearish for the open.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses strict close-vs-EMA rules (20/50/200). 52wH = distance below 52-week high. POC = 60-day VWAP point of control.

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 316.22 -1.17% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 50.2 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -8.2% . Above POC
MSFT 493.95 -1.15% . Bull (above all) . RSI 56.0 (Neutral+) . MACD Bear . 52wH -10.8% . Above POC
NVDA 225.73 -2.01% . Bull (above all) . RSI 56.1 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -4.6% . Above POC
AMZN 256.97 -0.60% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.1 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -10.5% . Above POC
META 613.48 -0.53% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 60.9 (Strong) . MACD Bull . 52wH -22.4% . Above POC
GOOGL 338.36 -0.03% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.7 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -17.2% . Below POC
TSLA 368.04 +3.94% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.7 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -26.2% . Above POC
AVGO 368.56 +2.98% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.3 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -25.5% . Below POC
NFLX 76.77 -1.89% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.4 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -39.4% . Above POC

Semiconductors
AMD 505.74 +5.90% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.0 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -13.5% . Below POC
QCOM 174.09 +3.17% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.9 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -33.0% . Below POC
TXN 258.92 +0.19% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.0 (Neutral-) . MACD Bull . 52wH -22.5% . Below POC
AMAT 472.78 +3.97% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.4 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -36.1% . Below POC
MU 1000.26 -1.61% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -20.3% . Above POC
LRCX 320.42 +4.15% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.9 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -26.9% . Below POC
KLAC 188.98 +1.82% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 50.0 (Neutral+) . MACD Bull . 52wH -38.5% . Below POC
ADI 363.20 +0.26% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.6 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -18.5% . Below POC
MRVL 225.41 +0.83% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.8 (Neutral+) . MACD Bear . 52wH -31.7% . Below POC

Software / Cloud
ADBE 257.26 -3.47% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.2 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -30.6% . Above POC
INTU 318.93 -4.14% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.8 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -54.8% . Above POC
PANW 336.98 +1.12% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.9 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -15.5% . Below POC
SNPS 392.03 -0.46% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.0 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -36.3% . Below POC
CDNS 284.11 -2.93% . Bear (below all) . RSI 28.3 (OS) . MACD Bear . 52wH -31.8% . Below POC
CRWD 210.02 -1.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.7 (Neutral+) . MACD Bear . 52wH -10.2% . Above POC
FTNT 157.47 +0.76% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.9 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -9.4% . Above POC
WDAY 186.28 -4.86% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.8 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -25.4% . Above POC

Consumer / Internet
COST 910.18 -0.61% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.4 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -17.0% . Below POC
BKNG 180.30 -6.72% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.8 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -20.1% . Below POC
MELI 1926.25 -2.63% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 51.8 (Neutral+) . MACD Bear . 52wH -24.4% . Above POC
MAR 328.79 -2.29% . Bear (below all) . RSI 29.1 (OS) . MACD Bear . 52wH -20.0% . Below POC
ABNB 174.54 -4.07% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.6 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -9.8% . Above POC
DASH 200.44 -5.33% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 38.0 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -29.8% . Above POC
PYPL 53.18 -3.24% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.5 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -32.9% . Above POC
ORLY 85.89 -2.28% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.2 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -21.0% . Below POC
TMUS 181.69 +0.09% . Bear (below all) . RSI 49.8 (Neutral-) . MACD Bull . 52wH -26.5% . Above POC
CSCO 109.17 -0.03% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.9 (Neutral-) . MACD Bear . 52wH -16.3% . Below POC

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG 350.16 -4.51% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.1 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -42.0% . Below POC
REGN 810.31 -2.10% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.5 (Neutral+) . MACD Bear . 52wH -5.7% . Above POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 468.38 -1.92% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.6 (Weak) . MACD Bear . 52wH -14.6% . Below POC
CEG 299.05 +0.03% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . 52wH -27.5% . Above POC


SECTOR ROTATION
Semiconductors +2.08% avg - the only sector that worked, and it carried the index. 8 of 9 names finished green, 5 of 9 are above all three EMAs. AMD +5.90% on 1.53x relative volume, LRCX +4.15%, AMAT +3.97% closing at 99.3% of its daily range, QCOM +3.17% on a huge 2.57x relative volume. Outside the 40, INTC ripped +8.66%. This is a genuine, volume-confirmed rotation into silicon, not a drift.

Mega-cap Tech -0.05% avg - flat and directionless. TSLA +3.94% and AVGO +2.98% did the work; NVDA gave back -2.01% from a 233.71 high to close at 225.73, near the low. AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL all effectively unchanged to slightly lower. Only 2 of 9 are above all three EMAs. The generals are resting.

Software / Cloud -1.93% avg - broadly broken. Only 1 of 8 (CRWD) is above all three EMAs. ADBE -3.47% and INTU -4.14% both below all EMAs with bearish MACD; CDNS at RSI 28.3 is outright oversold and 8.1% off its 52-week low. WDAY dropped -4.86% on just 0.55x volume - no conviction either way, but no bid.

Consumer / Internet -2.71% avg - the weakest group and zero of 10 names above all three EMAs. BKNG -6.72% on 2.07x volume, DASH -5.33%, ABNB -4.07%. Travel and discretionary getting hit hard as oil pushes toward $100 - a coherent, tradeable macro theme rather than random selling.

Healthcare / Biotech -3.30% avg - ISRG -4.51% below all EMAs and 42% off its 52-week high, REGN -2.10% but still structurally the strongest chart in the group.

Industrial / Other -0.94% avg - LIN -1.92% with RSI 32.6, below all EMAs. CEG flat but holds the highest RSI in the index at 66.8 and sits above all three EMAs - the AI-power trade is still intact.

Read: risk is rotating within tech, out of anything consumer-facing or rate-sensitive and into semis. Oil is the axis.


TOP SWING SETUPS

1. MU - LONG (highest conviction)
Entry: 1013.00 (above pivot) . Stop: 984.00 . T1: 1041.07 . T2: 1071.80 . R:R: 2.03
Above all three EMAs (20: 949.70, 50: 924.28, 200: 671.74), MACD bullish 16.69 vs 9.89, RSI 57.7. Closed at just 6.1% of its daily range after tagging 1041.07 - a rejection, but it held above the 972.27 POC, which is the key. Stop sits under pivot S1 (984.90) and well above the POC, so the trade is invalidated only if the volume shelf breaks. ATR 54.03, so size accordingly - this is a 5.4% daily-range name.

2. CEG - LONG
Entry: 300.60 (above pivot 300.49) . Stop: 294.00 . T1: 309.66 . T2: 313.53 . R:R: 1.96
Strongest RSI in the index at 66.8, above all three EMAs, MACD bullish, and 33.14 points clear of its 265.88 POC. Held perfectly flat (+0.03%) on a day the index faded and 26 of 40 names fell - relative strength. Stop tucked under Camarilla S4 (294.01). Caveat: EMA50 (274.51) is still below EMA200 (286.91), so this is a recovery long, not a mature trend.

3. META - LONG
Entry: 616.10 (above pivot 616.01) . Stop: 605.00 . T1: 631.07 . T2: 637.33 . R:R: 1.91
RSI 60.9, the second strongest reading in the index. Above EMA20 (586.43) and EMA50 (590.67), above the 592.34 POC, MACD bullish 3.94 vs -3.19. The overhead problem is EMA200 at 618.19 - directly on the entry. This is a break-and-hold trade: no reclaim of 618 and the setup does not exist. Stop under pivot S1 (607.21).

4. LRCX - LONG
Entry: 322.00 . Stop: 311.50 . T1: 333.86 . T2: 341.00 . R:R: 1.81
Closed at 86.1% of range, +4.15%, above all three EMAs with MACD turning up. The 337.96 POC is overhead and is exactly why T1 sits at 333.86 (pivot R3) - take something before the volume shelf. Stop below EMA20 (308.93).

5. BKNG - SHORT (best risk-reward on the board)
Entry: 183.90 (failed retest of pivot) . Stop: 189.10 . T1: 175.89 . T2: 171.47 . R:R: 2.39
Down -6.72% on 2.07x relative volume - the highest-conviction distribution in the index. Closed at 6.2% of range, below all three EMAs, and critically it lost both the 188.56 POC and the 188.30 EMA200 on the same bar. Those two levels sitting 0.26 apart give a very tight, very clean stop. RSI 32.8 is the one caution - it is stretched, so a bounce into 183-184 is the entry, not chasing the low. Oil toward $100 is the fundamental driver.



INTRADAY SETUPS
No component closed beyond Camarilla R4 or S4, so there is no confirmed trend-day carry-over. Favour range and pivot work at the open.

1. CSCO - Camarilla range LONG
Entry: 108.85 (Cam S3) . Stop: 108.50 . T1: 109.28 (Cam R1) . T2: 109.49 (Cam R3)
Tightest setup available: 1.06% daily range on 0.76x relative volume, closed dead flat at -0.03% and 59.5% of range. Classic Camarilla mean-reversion conditions - low volume, narrow range, price pinned to the pivot (109.10). Stop below Cam S4 (108.53). Small, high-probability, low-payout.

2. MSFT - Camarilla range SHORT
Entry: 495.34 (Cam R3) . Stop: 496.80 . T1: 493.10 (pivot) . T2: 492.56 (Cam S3)
1.02% daily range on 0.80x volume - the second tightest tape in the index. Fade the Cam R3 tag back to the pivot. Stop just over Cam R4 (496.72). Note MSFT is above all three EMAs, so this is a scalp against the trend, not a swing - take T1 and leave.

3. NVDA - pivot bounce LONG
Entry: 222.60 (pivot S1 222.48) . Stop: 219.60 . T1: 226.54 (Cam R1) . T2: 228.10 (pivot)
Closed at 9.9% of range after rejecting from 233.71, but NVDA remains above all three EMAs with a bullish MACD and is the closest name in the index to its 52-week high (-4.6%). The confluence is the point: pivot S1 at 222.48 sits just above EMA20 at 219.91 and Cam S4 at 220.86. A flush into 222 that holds is buyable; below 219.50 the whole structure changes.

4. AMAT - Camarilla breakout LONG
Entry: 474.20 (above Cam R1 474.13) . Stop: 470.00 . T1: 476.83 (Cam R3) . T2: 480.89 (Cam R4)
Closed at 99.3% of its daily range - literally on the high at 472.78 vs a 472.89 high - after gaining 3.97%. That is the single most bullish close in the index. Only 0.84x volume, which is the caution, and AMAT is still below its EMA20 (480.12) and EMA50 (502.09), so treat it as momentum continuation only. Above 480.12 it becomes far more interesting.

5. DASH - pivot rejection SHORT
Entry: 203.10 (pivot 203.04) . Stop: 209.10 . T1: 197.07 (pivot S1) . T2: 193.71 (pivot S2)
Down -5.33%, closed at 8.3% of range, below EMA20 (218.49) and EMA50 (205.80). It is still 3.43 above its 197.01 POC and 6.52 above EMA200 (193.92) - those are the two targets and they line up almost exactly with pivot S1 and S2. Fade any bounce into the pivot. Consumer discretionary is the weakest group on the board.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5

NVDA . Close 225.73 . ATR 7.49
Cam: S4 220.86 . S3 223.29 . S1 224.92 || R1 226.54 . R3 228.17 . R4 230.60
Piv: S3 213.62 . S2 219.24 . S1 222.48 . P 228.10 . R1 231.34 . R2 236.96 . R3 240.20
EMA20 219.91 . EMA50 214.30 . EMA200 197.98 . POC 209.67
Prev H/L 233.71 / 224.85 . 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27

AMD . Close 505.74 . ATR 23.39
Cam: S4 491.56 . S3 498.65 . S1 503.38 || R1 508.10 . R3 512.83 . R4 519.92
Piv: S3 464.96 . S2 475.77 . S1 490.75 . P 501.56 . R1 516.54 . R2 527.35 . R3 542.33
EMA20 477.84 . EMA50 480.68 . EMA200 375.27 . POC 507.33
Prev H/L 512.36 / 486.57 . 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.22

MU . Close 1000.26 . ATR 54.03
Cam: S4 976.36 . S3 988.31 . S1 996.28 || R1 1004.24 . R3 1012.21 . R4 1024.16
Piv: S3 941.45 . S2 969.53 . S1 984.90 . P 1012.98 . R1 1028.35 . R2 1056.43 . R3 1071.80
EMA20 949.70 . EMA50 924.28 . EMA200 671.74 . POC 972.27
Prev H/L 1041.07 / 997.62 . 52w H/L 1255.00 / 128.40

AAPL . Close 316.22 . ATR 7.51
Cam: S4 313.03 . S3 314.63 . S1 315.69 || R1 316.75 . R3 317.82 . R4 319.41
Piv: S3 308.05 . S2 311.47 . S1 313.85 . P 317.27 . R1 319.65 . R2 323.07 . R3 325.45
EMA20 316.84 . EMA50 312.66 . EMA200 286.83 . POC 308.71
Prev H/L 320.70 / 314.90 . 52w H/L 344.57 / 225.95

MSFT . Close 493.95 . ATR 11.68
Cam: S4 491.18 . S3 492.56 . S1 493.49 || R1 494.41 . R3 495.34 . R4 496.72
Piv: S3 485.96 . S2 488.06 . S1 491.00 . P 493.10 . R1 496.04 . R2 498.14 . R3 501.08
EMA20 490.49 . EMA50 461.88 . EMA200 439.07 . POC 422.75
Prev H/L 495.19 / 490.15 . 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20



BEARISH WARNINGS

Death-cross structure (EMA50 below EMA200) - 12 of 40 names: META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. META, TSLA, MELI and CEG have price back above both, so those are recovery candidates; COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS and ORLY are still below all three EMAs and remain outright downtrends.

Bearish MACD below all three EMAs - the worst combination - 12 names: COST, NFLX, ADBE, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, PYPL, ORLY. No trend, no momentum, no bid. Avoid longs entirely in this group.

Oversold and getting worse: CDNS RSI 28.3 (down another 2.93% on 1.79x volume - selling into oversold is capitulation behaviour, not a bounce signal yet), MAR RSI 29.1, LIN RSI 32.6, BKNG RSI 32.8, ISRG RSI 35.1, COST RSI 36.4.

Near 52-week lows: ORLY +4.0% above its low, ISRG +6.6%, SNPS +7.1%, COST +7.8%, CDNS +8.1%, TMUS +9.7%. Six of forty within 10% of a 52-week low while the index is only 4% off its high - that is a real breadth problem hiding under a flat tape.

Breadth divergence: the index fell only 0.12% but decliners beat advancers 26 to 14, only 12 of 40 carry a bullish MACD, and exactly half sit above their POC. Index-level strength is being manufactured by a handful of semis. If semis stall, there is very little underneath.

Failed-breakout risk at the index: 29,655.73 today versus 29,655.22 Friday. Two rejections from the identical level. A third failure sets up a move back to the EMA20 at 29,365 and potentially the EMA50 at 29,210.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Wednesday 9 September
No tier-one US data. Chewy (CHWY) reports. Expect a quiet, range-bound tape ahead of Thursday - good conditions for the Camarilla fades above.

Thursday 10 September - the first real test
August PPI and weekly jobless claims pre-market. ECB rate decision.
ORACLE (ORCL) and ADOBE (ADBE) report - both after the close. ADBE is in the tracked 40 and is one of the weakest charts on the board (below all three EMAs, MACD bearish, 30.6% off its 52-week high). ORCL closed +2.66% today at 162.52 in anticipation. Oracle's AI-capex commentary is the read-through for the whole cloud and semi complex - a miss hits AMD, MU, AVGO and the power names.

Friday 11 September - the week's main event
August CPI. With Brent near $100, the energy pass-through into headline inflation is the number that decides whether the Fed hikes on 16 September. Odds currently sit near 58% for a 25bp hike, down from 66% a week ago. A hot print pressures the whole index; a soft print releases the 29,655 lid.

Ahead
15-16 September - FOMC decision. Chair Warsh has been hawkish since Jackson Hole and Governor Waller has flagged inflation still above 2%. This is a genuine coin flip and the single largest risk on the horizon.

Earnings within the tracked 40: only ADBE reports this week (Thursday 10th). The rest of the index is in the earnings gap between Q2 and Q3 season, which means macro drives everything until early October.



SUMMARY
A flat index print hiding a genuine rotation. Semis worked hard (+2.08% average, volume-confirmed), consumer and internet names were sold hard (-2.71% average, zero above all EMAs) as oil pressed toward $100. The NAS100 holds a fully bullish EMA stack and a MACD histogram four sessions into a compression toward a bullish cross, but it has now been rejected twice from 29,655 and breadth is deteriorating underneath.

Levels that matter: above 29,656 opens 29,776 then 30,000. Below 29,400 targets the EMA20 at 29,366 and then 29,210. Between those, it is a range - trade the Camarilla levels, not the direction.

Report: 8 September 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.