NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Wednesday 05 August 2026
Data: Close 05 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,487.79 | Change: -245.37 (-0.83%) | Range: 29,468.33 - 29,946.93


MARKET OVERVIEW


The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,487.79, down 245.37 points (-0.83%). The session opened at 29,863.27, printed a high of 29,946.93 inside the first hour, then sold off steadily to close at 29,487.79 - just 19.46 points off the session low of 29,468.33. Volume of 1.485bn ran slightly above the 20-day average of 1.406bn, which makes this a genuine distribution day rather than a quiet drift lower.


Context matters here. Tuesday delivered record closes across all three major indices - the S&P 500 closed above 7,700 for the first time and the Dow gained more than 900 points - and the S&P went on to print a fresh intraday record of 7,793.68 on Wednesday morning. The Dow held its gains. The NASDAQ 100 did not. That divergence - Dow at records while the tech index gives back the whole day - is the single most important observation in today's tape.


Drivers: Renewed Middle East risk after Houthi rebels struck a Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu, pushing WTI to 76.34 (+0.75%) and Brent to 79.82 (+1.56%) and undercutting the Strait of Hormuz reopening optimism that powered Tuesday's rally. Gold rallied 1.83% to 4,228.40 and silver 2.59% to 61.81 - classic safe-haven bid. On the single-stock side, AMD faded hard from a 502.00 high after its Q2 report and Q3 revenue guide failed to clear elevated expectations, and SpaceX (SPCX) fell heavily on AI capex concerns. Rotation out of high-multiple tech and into cyclicals and defensives is the cleanest read.


VIX: 15.80, having ranged 15.48 to 18.43. Note the spike to 18.43 intraday before the fade back to the lows - fear appeared, then was sold. Complacent, but no longer asleep.


Bias: Cautiously bearish for the next 1-2 sessions, constructive over the swing horizon. Trend structure is intact; today was a rejection at the highs, not a breakdown.


TREND STRUCTURE


EMA stack: Close 29,487.79 | EMA20 28,820.39 | EMA50 28,832.24 | EMA200 26,827.08.


Price is above all three EMAs - 2.32% above the 20, 2.27% above the 50 and 9.92% above the 200. That is textbook bullish alignment on the close-versus-EMA test. However, note the EMA20 (28,820.39) sits marginally BELOW the EMA50 (28,832.24) - a gap of just 11.85 points. The short-term average has not yet reclaimed the medium-term average after the late-July drawdown. The stack is not yet fully bullish-ordered; it is compressed and on the cusp of a bullish cross.


Structure: The index bottomed at 27,954.24 on 31 July, then rallied three straight sessions - 28,274.20, 28,776.80, 29,733.16 - a 6.4% advance off the low in three days. Today's failure to extend puts a clear lower-high marker at 29,946.93. Higher lows remain intact from the 31 July base.


Phase: Recovery / late-stage snapback within a broader consolidation. The 52-week high of 30,762.20 is 4.14% overhead and remains unchallenged since the July peak. The 52-week low is 22,841.42. Until 30,762.20 is reclaimed, treat this as a rally inside a range, not a new leg of the primary uptrend.


INDICATORS


RSI(14): 55.5 - mid-range, neutral-to-constructive. Comfortably above the 50 midline but nowhere near the 70 overbought threshold. Critically, RSI is NOT confirming the price recovery with equal enthusiasm: price recovered 6.4% off the 31 July low while RSI only lifted back to 55.5. There is no bullish divergence here - if anything a mild momentum lag. Room to run in both directions.


MACD: -130.8, Signal -261.9, Histogram +131.1 - MACD is above its signal line, a bullish crossover that occurred during the recent bounce, and the histogram is firmly positive and expanding. But both lines remain below the zero line, which means the medium-term trend has not fully repaired. This is a recovering-momentum signature, not a confirmed bull-trend signature. The zero-line cross is the level that would confirm it.


Volume: 1.485bn vs 20-day average 1.406bn (+5.6%). Above-average volume on a down day that closed at the lows is textbook distribution. One day is not a trend, but it earns a note.


ATR(14): 647.2 points. Daily expected range is roughly 2.2% of index value - elevated. Size positions accordingly; stops closer than 300-400 points on the index will be noise-stopped.


KEY INDEX LEVELS


Resistance: R1 29,800.37 - R2 30,112.96 - R3 30,278.98. Above that, the 52-week high at 30,762.20.


Support: S1 29,321.77 - S2 29,155.75 - S3 28,843.16. Below that, the EMA50 at 28,832.24 and EMA20 at 28,820.39 form a tight confluence shelf.


Classic pivots (from today's 29,946.93 / 29,468.33 / 29,487.79): S2 29,155.75 . S1 29,321.77 . P 29,634.35 . R1 29,800.37 . R2 30,112.96


Round numbers: 29,500 (immediately overhead - today closed 12.21 points below it, a psychologically important rejection), 29,000, 30,000, 30,500.


The level that matters: 28,820-28,832. That is where EMA20 and EMA50 converge within 12 points of each other. A daily close below that band would invalidate the recovery thesis outright. A hold there on any pullback is the highest-quality long entry on the index.


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40


Format: Ticker . Close . Trend (strict close-vs-EMA) . RSI . MACD . % from 52w high . Day change . POC


AAPL 311.00 . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 45.8 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -9.74% from 52wH . +0.17% . Above POC


MSFT 487.46 . Bull (above all) . RSI 76.1 (OB) . MACD Bull . -11.97% from 52wH . -0.22% . Above POC


NVDA 219.22 . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.6 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -7.32% from 52wH . +1.60% . Above POC


AMZN 272.65 . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.5 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -5.07% from 52wH . -0.63% . Above POC


META 588.77 . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.7 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -26.06% from 52wH . +0.02% . Below POC


GOOGL 362.43 . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.6 (Bullish) . MACD Bull . -11.30% from 52wH . -1.10% . Above POC


AVGO 418.28 . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -15.50% from 52wH . +0.01% . Above POC


TSLA 321.55 . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.5 (Weak) . MACD Bear . -35.54% from 52wH . -0.55% . Below POC


COST 941.99 . Bear (below all) . RSI 47.4 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -14.09% from 52wH . -0.07% . Below POC


NFLX 74.20 . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 52.5 (Bullish) . MACD Bull . -41.44% from 52wH . +1.17% . Below POC


AMD 482.05 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -17.56% from 52wH . -1.44% . Below POC


ADBE 259.32 . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.5 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -30.08% from 52wH . +0.27% . Above POC


QCOM 157.53 . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.6 (Weak) . MACD Bear . -39.39% from 52wH . -1.97% . Below POC


TMUS 173.46 . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.5 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -33.68% from 52wH . -1.21% . Below POC


LIN 491.05 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.0 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -10.43% from 52wH . +0.27% . Below POC


ISRG 375.20 . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 49.8 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -37.87% from 52wH . +0.50% . Below POC


INTU 327.94 . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.5 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -58.70% from 52wH . +0.41% . Above POC


CSCO 121.50 . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.6 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -6.80% from 52wH . -0.16% . Above POC


TXN 277.71 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.9 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -16.86% from 52wH . -0.75% . Below POC


AMAT 534.24 . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.2 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -27.77% from 52wH . -0.42% . Below POC


BKNG 207.02 . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.3 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -10.69% from 52wH . +3.28% . Above POC


PANW 362.66 . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.6 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -3.80% from 52wH . -0.27% . Above POC


MU 893.19 . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.8 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -28.83% from 52wH . +0.01% . Below POC


LRCX 307.42 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -29.89% from 52wH . -1.05% . Below POC


KLAC 192.85 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.3 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -37.26% from 52wH . -0.68% . Below POC


ADI 377.69 . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 48.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -15.30% from 52wH . -0.18% . Below POC


REGN 768.58 . Bull (above all) . RSI 77.9 (OB) . MACD Bull . -6.40% from 52wH . +0.14% . Above POC


SNPS 400.82 . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 46.4 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -37.00% from 52wH . -0.19% . Below POC


CDNS 337.07 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.3 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -19.11% from 52wH . -0.31% . Below POC


MELI 1922.57 . Bull (above all) . RSI 68.7 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -24.56% from 52wH . +0.09% . Above POC


CRWD 209.86 . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.2 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -4.33% from 52wH . -0.30% . Above POC


MAR 361.31 . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -12.09% from 52wH . +1.31% . Below POC


ABNB 152.49 . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.3 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -2.56% from 52wH . +1.13% . Above POC


MRVL 211.02 . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 49.8 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -36.03% from 52wH . -1.61% . Below POC


DASH 207.27 . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.6 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -27.40% from 52wH . +1.18% . Above POC


FTNT 164.13 . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.7 (Bullish) . MACD Bull . -4.63% from 52wH . -1.48% . Above POC


CEG 265.12 . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.7 (Bullish) . MACD Bull . -35.76% from 52wH . -0.30% . Below POC


WDAY 170.64 . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.5 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -31.70% from 52wH . -0.22% . Above POC


PYPL 57.93 . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.1 (OB) . MACD Bear . -26.87% from 52wH . -1.76% . Above POC


ORLY 93.44 . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.0 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -14.05% from 52wH . +1.91% . Above POC


Breadth: 19 bullish trend / 12 bearish trend / 9 mixed. MACD bullish on 27 of 40. 20 of 40 trading above their 60-day volume POC. Only 17 of 40 closed green on the day. Zero components are RSI oversold; three are overbought (MSFT 76.1, REGN 77.9, PYPL 71.1).


EMA classification verified programmatically against close-versus-EMA20/50/200 for all 40 constituents: zero mismatches.


SECTOR GROUPING


Mega-cap Tech - AAPL 311.00 (mixed, below EMA20), MSFT 487.46 (bull, RSI 76.1), NVDA 219.22 (bull, +1.60%), AMZN 272.65 (bull), META 588.77 (bear, below all), GOOGL 362.43 (bull, -1.10% on a 7.8% range), AVGO 418.28 (bull), TSLA 321.55 (bear, below all). Five of eight bullish but the group gave ground today. MSFT is the standout with a 22.41 MACD versus 10.43 signal - the widest bullish spread in the index.


Semiconductors - AMD 482.05 (bear, -1.44%, faded from 502.00 post-earnings on 1.65 relative volume), QCOM 157.53 (bear below all, -1.97%, worst performer), TXN 277.71 (bear below 20/50), AMAT 534.24 (mixed), MU 893.19 (mixed), LRCX 307.42 (bear below 20/50), KLAC 192.85 (bear below 20/50), ADI 377.69 (mixed), MRVL 211.02 (mixed, -1.61%). Only NVDA and AVGO hold clean bullish structure. This is the weakest group in the index and the primary drag. Seven of eleven semis sit below their EMA20.


Software / Cloud - ADBE 259.32 (bull above 20/50), INTU 327.94 (bull above 20/50), PANW 362.66 (bull, printed a new 52w high at 376.98 then faded), SNPS 400.82 (mixed), CDNS 337.07 (bear below 20/50), CRWD 209.86 (bull, printed a new 52w high at 219.35 then faded), FTNT 164.13 (bull, -1.48% from a 172.09 52w high), WDAY 170.64 (bull), CSCO 121.50 (bull). Strongest group in the index - seven of nine bullish, and three members touched 52-week highs today. The EDA pair (SNPS, CDNS) is the weak link.


Consumer / Internet - COST 941.99 (bear below all), NFLX 74.20 (mixed), BKNG 207.02 (bull, +3.28% on 1.71 relative volume - best in index), MELI 1,922.57 (bull), MAR 361.31 (bear below 20/50 but +1.31%), ABNB 152.49 (bull, +1.13%), DASH 207.27 (bull, +1.18% on 1.32 rvol), PYPL 57.93 (bull structure but RSI 71.1 with a bearish MACD cross and -1.76% today), ORLY 93.44 (bull, +1.91%), TMUS 173.46 (bear below all, only 4.7% above its 52-week low). Travel and booking names were the day's genuine leadership.


Healthcare / Biotech - ISRG 375.20 (mixed, +0.50%), REGN 768.58 (bull above all, RSI 77.9, MACD 29.20 vs 19.00, 6.4% from its 52w high). REGN is the single strongest momentum profile in the entire index.


Industrial / Other - LIN 491.05 (bear below 20/50, RSI 40.0), CEG 265.12 (mixed, -0.30%). Both laggards; neither offers a clean setup.


TOP SWING SETUPS


1. BKNG - LONG (highest conviction)


Booking closed 207.02, +3.28%, on 1.71 relative volume - the strongest volume-confirmed move in the index. Bullish above all three EMAs (20: 187.97, 50: 180.65, 200: 183.84), RSI 69.3, MACD 6.21 over 4.57 signal, trading 32.93 above its 60-day POC of 174.10. It is 10.69% below its 52-week high of 231.80, giving it room.


Entry: 205.50-207.00 (pullback into the 206.87 pivot / 205.31 Camarilla S2 zone) . Stop: 197.40 (below S2 197.53, 1.24x ATR) . T1: 216.21 (R2) . T2: 231.80 (52w high) . R:R: 1:2.6


Confluence: Volume expansion, full bullish EMA stack, MACD widening, well above POC, no overhead structure until 231.80. ATR 7.76.


2. REGN - LONG (wait for the pullback)


Regeneron closed 768.58 with the cleanest momentum in the index: RSI 77.9, MACD 29.20 versus 19.00 signal, above EMA20 701.29 / EMA50 679.33 / EMA200 690.01, and 120.32 above its POC of 648.26. The catch is the overbought RSI - do not chase this at the close.


Entry: 758.00-760.40 (Camarilla S4 757.98 / classic S1 760.40) . Stop: 741.12 (S3, 0.94x ATR) . T1: 790.77 (R2) . T2: 821.11 (52w high) . R:R: 1:3.1


Confluence: Strongest MACD spread in the index, healthcare is a defensive beneficiary of the tech rotation, only 6.4% from a 52-week high. ATR 20.51. Risk: RSI 77.9 can unwind through time or price.


3. CRWD - LONG (pullback buy after a 52w high print)


CrowdStrike tagged a new 52-week high at 219.35 today and closed 209.86 - a 4.3% fade off the high. Structure remains fully bullish: above EMA20 192.83, EMA50 179.95, EMA200 142.25, RSI 65.2, MACD 5.01 over 3.74, and 33.93 above its POC of 175.93. The fade is an opportunity, not a warning, unless 196.71 gives way.


Entry: 205.00-206.50 (Camarilla S4 204.48 / S1 206.50) . Stop: 196.50 (below S3 196.71, 0.98x ATR) . T1: 219.35 (today's 52w high) . T2: 226.08 (R3) . R:R: 1:2.0


Confluence: Fresh 52-week high, strongest sector in the index, textbook EMA stack. ATR 9.67.


4. PANW - LONG


Palo Alto also printed a new 52-week high today (376.98) and closed 362.66, down 0.27%. The EMA stack is exceptionally wide - close 362.66 versus EMA20 335.54, EMA50 307.88, EMA200 236.45 - which signals a powerful, established trend but also means a mean-reversion pullback carries some distance. RSI 64.6, MACD 10.01 over 9.25 (narrowing - watch it), 68.60 above its 294.06 POC.


Entry: 360.00-362.66 (holding above Camarilla S1 361.31) . Stop: 347.00 (1.0x ATR, below S2 352.53) . T1: 376.98 (52w high) . T2: 387.11 (R3) . R:R: 1:1.6


Confluence: New 52-week high, cybersecurity leadership alongside CRWD and FTNT. ATR 15.72. Caution: MACD histogram narrowing to 0.76 - momentum is decelerating even as price holds.


5. TSLA - SHORT (bounce-fade)


Tesla is the cleanest bearish structure in the index: close 321.55 below EMA20 343.47, EMA50 370.69 and EMA200 388.52 - a full bearish stack with the averages in perfect descending order. RSI 37.5, MACD -22.25 below -20.95 signal and still falling, price 71.46 below its 393.01 POC, 35.54% off its 52-week high, and only 8.13% above its 52-week low of 297.38.


Entry: Short 329.00-329.85 on a bounce into R2 . Stop: 344.00 (above EMA20 343.47, 0.92x ATR) . T1: 316.13 (S2) . T2: 297.38 (52w low) . R:R: 1:2.3


Confluence: Every moving average overhead, MACD deteriorating, deep below POC, weakest RSI in the index. ATR 15.44.


INTRADAY SETUPS


1. NVDA - Camarilla range long


NVDA closed 219.22, inside its Camarilla band (S1 218.69 / R1 219.75), which is the classic range-day signature. Bullish EMA stack, RSI 61.6, MACD 0.89 just crossed above -0.57 signal, above POC 209.35, and it led the mega-caps with +1.60% on 1.19 relative volume.


Direction: Long . Entry: 217.62 (Camarilla S3) . Stop: 215.80 (below Camarilla S4 216.02) . T1: 219.75 (cam R1) . T2: 220.82 (cam R3) . R:R: 1:1.7


Reasoning: Camarilla S3-to-R3 reversion is the highest-probability intraday pattern when a stock closes inside the S1/R1 band. NVDA is the strongest liquid mega-cap; buy the dip into S3.


2. BKNG - Camarilla breakout long


Direction: Long . Entry: 209.59 (break and hold above Camarilla R3) . Stop: 206.10 (below Camarilla S1 206.16) . T1: 211.62 (classic R1) . T2: 216.21 (classic R2) . R:R: 1:1.9


Reasoning: A Camarilla R3 break after a +3.28% high-volume day is a continuation signal, not exhaustion. The 211.47 session high is the confirmation trigger. Invalidate on any move back below S1.


3. AMD - Camarilla breakdown short


AMD faded from 502.00 to 482.05 after earnings on 1.65 relative volume - the highest conviction seller footprint in the index. It closed below EMA20 501.62 and below its POC of 499.65, with MACD -8.25 under -4.87 signal. ATR is a huge 40.39, so size small.


Direction: Short . Entry: 475.30 (break below Camarilla S3 475.51) . Stop: 484.40 (above Camarilla R1 484.23) . T1: 468.96 (cam S4) . T2: 463.62 (classic S2) . R:R: 1:1.3


Reasoning: Post-earnings disappointment plus a close below both EMA20 and POC. Camarilla S3 breaks trend rather than revert. High ATR - use half size.


4. AAPL - Pivot bounce long


AAPL closed 311.00, marginally above its 309.46 pivot and above its 305.80 POC, but below EMA20 318.89 - a mixed profile (below 20, above 50 and 200). Suitable for an intraday bounce only, not a swing.


Direction: Long . Entry: 309.46 (classic pivot) . Stop: 307.00 (below S1 307.21) . T1: 313.25 (R1) . T2: 315.50 (R2) . R:R: 1:1.5


Reasoning: Pivot plus POC (305.80) confluence just beneath. MACD is bearish at 2.09 versus 5.72 signal and price is below the EMA20 - this is a scalp, keep it tight.


5. GOOGL - Camarilla breakdown short


Alphabet posted an enormous 356.77-384.48 range (7.8%) on 1.43 relative volume and closed 362.43, down 1.10% - closing in the bottom quarter of the day's range. It closed just 1.87 above its 60-day POC of 360.56 and well below the 367.89 pivot. A close in the lower quarter of a wide-range high-volume day usually sees follow-through.


Direction: Short . Entry: 359.70 (break below Camarilla S1 359.89 and the 360.56 POC) . Stop: 365.10 (above Camarilla R1 364.97) . T1: 354.81 (cam S3) . T2: 351.31 (classic S1) . R:R: 1:1.6


Reasoning: Losing the POC on the day after a wide-range distribution bar opens the classic S1 at 351.31. Invalidate above the pivot at 367.89. ATR 13.93.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5


AAPL - 311.00


Cam: S4 307.68 . S3 309.34 . S1 310.45 || R1 311.55 . R3 312.66 . R4 314.32


Classic: S3 301.17 . S2 303.42 . S1 307.21 . P 309.46 . R1 313.25 . R2 315.50 . R3 319.29


EMA20 318.89 . EMA50 309.69 . EMA200 279.91 . POC 305.80


Prev H/L 311.71 / 305.67 . 52w H/L 344.57 / 202.16 . ATR 9.51


MSFT - 487.46


Cam: S4 480.55 . S3 484.01 . S1 486.31 || R1 488.61 . R3 490.91 . R4 494.37


Classic: S3 470.12 . S2 477.90 . S1 482.68 . P 490.46 . R1 495.24 . R2 503.02 . R3 507.80


EMA20 424.78 . EMA50 409.43 . EMA200 424.31 . POC 406.10


Prev H/L 498.24 / 485.68 . 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20 . ATR 16.72


NVDA - 219.22


Cam: S4 216.02 . S3 217.62 . S1 218.69 || R1 219.75 . R3 220.82 . R4 222.42


Classic: S3 210.52 . S2 213.46 . S1 216.34 . P 219.28 . R1 222.16 . R2 225.10 . R3 227.98


EMA20 204.85 . EMA50 204.49 . EMA200 192.15 . POC 209.35


Prev H/L 222.22 / 216.40 . 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07 . ATR 7.88


AMZN - 272.65


Cam: S4 266.02 . S3 269.33 . S1 271.54 || R1 273.76 . R3 275.97 . R4 279.28


Classic: S3 255.93 . S2 263.33 . S1 267.99 . P 275.39 . R1 280.05 . R2 287.45 . R3 292.11


EMA20 251.73 . EMA50 248.12 . EMA200 237.14 . POC 249.18


Prev H/L 282.79 / 270.73 . 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00 . ATR 9.98


GOOGL - 362.43


Cam: S4 347.19 . S3 354.81 . S1 359.89 || R1 364.97 . R3 370.05 . R4 377.67


Classic: S3 323.60 . S2 340.18 . S1 351.31 . P 367.89 . R1 379.02 . R2 395.60 . R3 406.73


EMA20 351.57 . EMA50 353.73 . EMA200 321.70 . POC 360.56


Prev H/L 384.48 / 356.77 . 52w H/L 408.61 / 193.67 . ATR 13.93


BEARISH WARNINGS


1. Index distribution day. The NAS100 gapped up, printed 29,946.93, and closed 29,487.79 - within 19 points of the session low - on above-average volume, while the Dow closed at a record. Institutional rotation out of tech is the cleanest interpretation.


2. EMA20 still below EMA50 on the index. 28,820.39 versus 28,832.24. The short-term average has not reclaimed the medium-term average. Until it does, the recovery is unconfirmed.


3. MACD below zero. Both MACD (-130. and signal (-261.9) remain negative. The bullish crossover is real but the medium-term trend has not repaired.


4. Full bearish stacks: META, TSLA, COST, QCOM, TMUS trade below all three EMAs. TMUS is only 4.7% above its 52-week low; TSLA only 8.1% above its.


5. Semiconductor breakdown. AMD, LIN, TXN, LRCX, KLAC, CDNS and MAR all closed below both EMA20 and EMA50. Seven of eleven semiconductors are under their 20-day. Semis normally lead the index in both directions - this is the clearest forward warning in the data.


6. PYPL overbought with a bearish MACD. RSI 71.1 while MACD (3.13) has crossed below signal (3.20), and the stock fell 1.76% on the lowest relative volume in the index (0.45). Classic momentum-exhaustion divergence.


7. MSFT overbought. RSI 76.1. The MACD spread (22.41 vs 10.43) is powerful, but a stock 11.97% below its 52-week high with a 76 RSI is stretched short-term.


8. Failed 52-week-high prints. PANW (376.98), CRWD (219.35) and FTNT (172.09) all touched 52-week highs today and all three closed lower. Three simultaneous upside rejections in the strongest sector is worth respecting.


EVENTS CALENDAR


Thursday 06 August


Weekly initial jobless claims, 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET. No first-tier tech earnings scheduled among the 40.


Friday 07 August


US Employment Situation (July non-farm payrolls), 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET. This is the week's dominant event risk and the primary driver of Fed rate expectations. Falling rate-hike expectations have been a stated pillar of the current rally - a hot print removes it.


Ongoing / unscheduled


US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated the strait would reopen "very soon" or Iran would be "hit very hard"; Iranian state media disputed any linkage to an Oman agreement. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are now a live, repeating headline risk - a Saudi tanker was struck off Yanbu today and an Indian-flagged vessel was sunk off Yemen. Oil is the transmission mechanism into equities: WTI 76.34, Brent 79.82. Any escalation hits the index through both the rate channel and the risk-appetite channel.


Already reported this week: AMD and SpaceX (Tuesday), Disney and Shopify (Wednesday). The remaining NAS100 reporting season is light until the second half of August.


SUMMARY


Trend structure remains intact - price above all three EMAs, 19 of 40 components bullish, 27 of 40 with bullish MACD, and the strongest sector (software and cybersecurity) still printing 52-week highs. But today was a rejection, and the internals under the surface are thinner than the headline suggests: only 17 of 40 closed green, semiconductors are broadly under their 20-day, the index EMA20 still sits below the EMA50, and MACD remains below zero.


Plan: Buy pullbacks into the 28,820-28,832 EMA confluence, not strength into 29,800-30,113. A daily close below 28,843 (S3) invalidates the recovery. A daily close above 30,112.96 (R2) with expanding breadth reopens the 30,762.20 52-week high. Long book: BKNG, REGN, CRWD, PANW. Short book: TSLA, and AMD on a Camarilla S3 break. Reduce gross exposure into Friday's payrolls print.


Report: 05 August 2026 23:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis - Tuesday 4 August 2026
Data: Close 2026-08-04 | NAS100: 29733.16 | Change: +956.36 (+3.32%) | Range: 29109.26 - 29831.40



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29733.16, up +956.36 points (+3.32%) - the strongest single session of the recovery so far. The index opened at 29109.26, never traded below the open, and closed at 29733.16, just 98.24 points off the session high of 29831.40. That is a textbook trend day: open at the low, close at the high, no meaningful retracement.

Volume printed 1.81bn against a 1.39bn average - roughly 30% above normal, which is the confirmation the last three sessions lacked. Nasdaq breadth ran at approximately 3.01-to-1 advancing, and 32 of the 40 large-cap constituents tracked here closed higher.

The driver was semiconductors. Marvell led the entire index +12.81%, with Lam Research +7.85%, Micron +7.67%, Qualcomm +7.32%, AMD +7.00%, KLA +6.95%, Broadcom +6.61%, Applied Materials +5.48%, Texas Instruments +5.42% and Analog Devices +5.09%. Ten of the twelve semiconductor names in the group gained more than 3%. The VIX eased to 15.86 (-0.8%), consistent with a risk-on tape rather than a short-covering panic.

Bias: Bullish while price holds above 29284 (pivot S1). The index has now rallied +9.34% in four sessions off the 27192.31 low of 30 July. That is the caveat - this is a powerful move, but it is also a stretched one.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (close vs each EMA):
Close 29733.16 · EMA20 28750.14 · EMA50 28805.48 · EMA200 26765.28

Price is above all three EMAs - the index qualifies as Bull (above all) on strict rules. Price sits +3.42% above the 20 EMA, +3.22% above the 50 EMA and +11.09% above the 200 EMA.

However, the stack itself is not yet aligned. The 20 EMA (28750.14) remains fractionally below the 50 EMA (28805.48) - a gap of just 55.34 points. The July pullback was deep enough to roll the short-term average under the medium-term one, and one strong session has not repaired it. A close above roughly 29000 held for two more sessions will flip the 20 back over the 50 and complete the alignment.

Structure: The index bottomed at 27192.31 on 30 July and has printed four consecutive higher closes: 27192.31 - 28106.35 - 28274.20 - 28776.80 - 29733.16. Today's action cleared the 28842.36 swing high from the previous session with room to spare. Higher highs and higher lows are re-established on the daily.

Phase: Recovery within a primary uptrend. The 200 EMA at 26765.28 has never been threatened during this correction - the deepest close (27192.31) was still 1.6% above it. This is a correction inside a bull market, not a trend change. The index remains -3.35% below the 52-week high of 30762.20, with the 52-week low at 22841.42.



INDICATORS
RSI(14): 57.93 - neutral-to-constructive. Despite a 3.32% session, RSI has only recovered to the mid-50s, which tells you how oversold the prior dip was. There is no overbought reading at index level and therefore no momentum ceiling here; RSI has 12 points of room before the 70 line. No bearish divergence is present - the RSI low on 30 July coincided with the price low, so momentum and price are in agreement.

MACD: -216.23 | Signal: -294.64 | Histogram: +78.41
The MACD line has crossed above its signal line and the histogram has turned positive - a bullish crossover. The important qualifier: both lines remain below the zero line. That makes this a recovery signal, not a fresh trend signal. Zero-line reclaim is the confirmation to watch; on current momentum that would take several more sessions of gains.

Volume: 1.81bn vs 1.39bn 20-day average. Expanding volume on an up day with 3-to-1 breadth is accumulation, not a bounce. This is the single most encouraging element of today's tape.

ATR(14): 660.18 - roughly 2.2% of index value. Position sizing should account for daily swings of 600-700 points as normal.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance:
R3 30728.76 - classic pivot R3, converging with the 52-week high at 30762.20. Major.
R2 30280.08 - pivot R2, and the round-number 30000-30300 zone sits inside it.
R1 30006.62 - pivot R1 and the psychological 30000 handle. First real test.

Support:
S1 29284.48 - pivot S1. Also the mid-point of today's range. First defence.
S2 28835.80 - pivot S2, sitting directly on the EMA50 at 28805.48 and the EMA20 at 28750.14. Triple confluence - this is the level that matters.
S3 28562.34 - pivot S3. Below here the four-day rally is invalidated.

Daily pivot: P 29557.94. Round numbers: 29500, 30000, 30500.
Prev day: H 28842.36 · L 28196.88 · C 28776.80 - the 28776.80 prior close is now short-term support-turned-floor.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker | Close | Day % | Trend (strict EMA) | RSI | MACD | % from 52w high | POC

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL | 309.38 | +1.96% | Bear (below 20/50) | 44.7 | Bear | -10.2% | Above POC
MSFT | 492.81 | +1.06% | Bull (above all) | 79.0 Overbought | Bull | -11.0% | Above POC
NVDA | 211.88 | +2.54% | Bull (above all) | 56.9 | Bull | -10.4% | Above POC
AMZN | 277.42 | -2.32% | Bull (above all) | 67.0 | Bull | -3.4% | Above POC
META | 587.94 | -0.39% | Bear (below all) | 46.5 | Bear | -26.2% | Below POC
GOOGL | 377.65 | +1.11% | Bull (above all) | 62.6 | Bull | -7.6% | Above POC
TSLA | 327.35 | +1.64% | Bear (below all) | 39.2 | Bear | -34.4% | Below POC
NFLX | 73.57 | +0.33% | Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) | 50.6 | Bull | -41.9% | Below POC

Semiconductors
AVGO | 418.16 | +6.61% | Bull (above all) | 61.8 | Bull | -15.5% | Above POC
AMD | 518.58 | +7.00% | Bull (above all) | 52.3 | Bear | -11.3% | Above POC
QCOM | 162.67 | +7.32% | Bear (below all) | 42.4 | Bear | -37.4% | Below POC
TXN | 283.63 | +5.42% | Bear (below 20/50) | 47.9 | Bear | -15.1% | Below POC
AMAT | 546.62 | +5.48% | Bull (above all) | 51.0 | Bear | -26.1% | Above POC
MU | 892.67 | +7.67% | Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) | 48.8 | Bear | -28.9% | Below POC
LRCX | 317.74 | +7.85% | Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) | 50.0 | Bear | -27.5% | Below POC
KLAC | 195.45 | +6.95% | Bear (below 20/50) | 44.3 | Bear | -36.4% | Below POC
ADI | 380.29 | +5.09% | Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) | 49.7 | Bull | -14.7% | Below POC
MRVL | 218.59 | +12.81% | Bull (above all) | 52.2 | Bull | -33.7% | Below POC
SNPS | 403.86 | +3.01% | Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) | 47.7 | Bull | -36.6% | Below POC
CDNS | 340.62 | +1.33% | Bear (below 20/50) | 44.0 | Bull | -18.3% | Below POC

Software / Cloud
ADBE | 257.49 | +2.45% | Bull (above 20/50) | 62.7 | Bull | -30.6% | Above POC
INTU | 323.60 | +1.64% | Bull (above 20/50) | 61.9 | Bull | -59.2% | Above POC
CSCO | 121.74 | +5.08% | Bull (above all) | 62.1 | Bull | -6.6% | Above POC
PANW | 366.34 | +5.53% | Bull (above all) | 66.6 | Bear | -0.7% | Above POC
CRWD | 211.22 | +4.29% | Bull (above all) | 66.5 | Bull | -2.9% | Above POC
FTNT | 168.29 | +3.11% | Bull (above all) | 65.9 | Bull | -1.2% | Above POC
WDAY | 171.28 | +3.77% | Bull (above all) | 67.1 | Bull | -31.4% | Above POC
TMUS | 177.21 | +0.07% | Bear (below all) | 45.6 | Bear | -32.2% | Below POC

Consumer / Internet
COST | 947.85 | -0.65% | Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) | 49.7 | Bull | -13.6% | Below POC
BKNG | 194.23 | +0.79% | Bull (above all) | 61.0 | Bull | -16.2% | Above POC
MELI | 1888.50 | -0.54% | Bull (above all) | 64.6 | Bull | -25.9% | Above POC
MAR | 345.20 | -0.39% | Bear (below 20/50) | 32.1 | Bear | -16.0% | Below POC
ABNB | 149.92 | -0.48% | Bull (above all) | 56.7 | Bull | -4.2% | Above POC
DASH | 202.37 | +0.93% | Bull (above all) | 63.8 | Bull | -29.1% | Above POC
PYPL | 58.54 | +1.16% | Bull (above all) | 75.0 Overbought | Bull | -26.1% | Above POC
ORLY | 91.83 | +2.31% | Bull (above all) | 58.0 | Bull | -15.5% | Above POC

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG | 368.27 | -1.90% | Bear (below all) | 47.0 | Bull | -39.0% | Below POC
REGN | 760.66 | +0.19% | Bull (above all) | 76.7 Overbought | Bull | -7.4% | Above POC

Industrial / Other
LIN | 484.64 | +0.87% | Bear (below all) | 35.1 | Bear | -11.6% | Below POC
CEG | 267.25 | -2.36% | Bull (above 20/50) | 53.3 | Bull | -35.2% | Above POC

Trend tally: Bull (above all) 20 · Bull (above 20/50) 3 · Mixed 6 · Bear (below 20/50) 5 · Bear (below all) 6
All 40 EMA classifications were verified programmatically against close-versus-each-EMA. Zero mismatches.



SECTOR READ
Semiconductors - the day's engine and the day's paradox. Average gain across the twelve names was roughly +6.6%, yet only four (AVGO, AMD, AMAT, MRVL) qualify as Bull above all EMAs and eight of twelve still show a bearish MACD. Seven of twelve remain below their 60-day POC. This was a violent oversold bounce off deeply damaged charts - QCOM is still -37.4% from its high, KLAC -36.4%, MRVL -33.7%. Powerful, but structurally the weakest group in the index. Treat rallies here as tactical until MACD crosses confirm.

Software / Cloud - the genuine leadership. Six of eight are Bull above all EMAs, six carry RSI above 60, and three (PANW -0.7%, FTNT -1.2%, CRWD -2.9%) are within 3% of 52-week highs. Every one of the seven advancers is above its POC. This is where the institutional bid actually lives. TMUS is the outlier, below all EMAs and -32.2% from its high.

Mega-cap Tech - split. MSFT, NVDA, AMZN and GOOGL are above all EMAs; AAPL, META and TSLA are not. AMZN was the notable laggard, -2.32% on a day the index gained 3.32%, though it remains only 3.4% off its high with RSI 67. MSFT's RSI 79 is the index's most stretched reading.

Consumer / Internet - broadly healthy, six of eight Bull above all EMAs, but the day's laggards clustered here: COST, MELI, MAR and ABNB all closed red. MAR is the standout warning, discussed below.

Healthcare / Biotech - two-name split. REGN strong but overbought at RSI 76.7; ISRG below all EMAs and -39.0% from its high.

Industrial / Other - LIN is the weakest chart in the entire index on structure: below all three EMAs, RSI 35.1, below POC, on elevated volume. CEG fell 2.36% but holds above its 20 and 50 EMAs.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. PANW - Long, breakout
Closed 366.34 (+5.53%), just 0.7% below the 52-week high of 368.80. Above all three EMAs (20: 332.69, 50: 305.64, 200: 235.19), RSI 66.6, relative volume 1.24, well above POC 291.07. The only blemish is a marginally bearish MACD (8.58 vs signal 9.06) after a long advance - a flat consolidation, not a breakdown.
Entry: 369.50 on a break of the 52w high · Stop: 350.50 (below today's 349.07 low) · T1: 388.50 · T2: 407.50 · R:R: 2.0
Confluence: 52w high breakout + full EMA alignment + sector leadership + 75.9 points above POC.

2. AVGO - Long, trend continuation
Closed 418.16 (+6.61%) with the highest relative volume of any advancer at 1.41. Above all EMAs, RSI 61.8, MACD turned bullish (1.78 vs -1.43). Reclaimed POC 401.16 decisively. The best-structured chart in the semiconductor group.
Entry: 414.00 on a hold above pivot 413.64 · Stop: 400.00 (below POC) · T1: 435.00 · T2: 448.00 · R:R: 2.4
Confluence: Pivot P + POC 401.16 + EMA20 388.54 stacked beneath. Volume conviction is the differentiator here.

3. CRWD - Long, high-tight continuation
Closed 211.22 (+4.29%), 2.9% from the 52-week high of 217.50. Above all EMAs by a wide margin (20: 191.04), RSI 66.5, MACD bullish 3.97 vs 3.42, POC 174.53 far below.
Entry: 212.75 above today's 212.64 high · Stop: 203.00 · T1: 223.90 · T2: 232.25 · R:R: 2.1
Confluence: T1 sits on classic R3 223.88. Software leadership plus a 36.7-point cushion to POC.

4. TSLA - Short, trend continuation
Closed 327.35. Despite +1.64% on a +3.32% index day, this is below all three EMAs (20: 345.78, 50: 372.70, 200: 389.19), RSI 39.2, MACD -23.22 vs -20.63 and worsening, -34.4% from its 52w high, 67 points below POC 394.45, and only 29.97 points above the 52-week low of 297.38. It underperformed the index by 168 basis points on the strongest tape in weeks - that is the tell.
Entry: 320.00 on a break of today's 320.79 low · Stop: 332.50 (above cam R4 332.18) · T1: 307.50 · T2: 297.50 · R:R: 1.8
Confluence: Full bearish EMA stack + relative weakness + 52w low as T2.

5. LIN - Short, breakdown
Closed 484.64. Below all three EMAs (20: 505.79, 50: 509.63, 200: 488.36), RSI 35.1 - the second-lowest in the index - and 26.67 points below POC 511.31 on relative volume 1.38. The 200 EMA at 488.36 has already been lost. Structurally the most damaged non-tech chart here.
Entry: 478.00 on a break of today's 478.50 low · Stop: 490.20 (above R2 490.01 and the 200 EMA) · T1: 465.80 · T2: 453.60 · R:R: 2.0
Confluence: Lost 200 EMA + weak RSI + elevated volume on a down structure while the index rallied 3.32%.



INTRADAY SETUPS

1. NVDA - Pivot bounce long
Pivot 211.33 · S1 209.60 · POC 209.27 form a tight confluence shelf.
Entry: 209.80 · Stop: 207.20 (below S2 207.32) · T1: 213.61 (R1) · T2: 215.34 (R2) · R:R: 2.1
Direction: Long. Reasoning: S1 and POC within 0.33 points of each other, with the EMA20 at 203.33 as deeper backstop. Bull above all EMAs, MACD positive.

2. AMD - Camarilla range short
Cam: S4 503.22 · S3 510.90 · S1 516.02 || R1 521.14 · R3 526.26 · R4 533.94
Entry: 525.50 at cam R3 · Stop: 534.20 (above cam R4) · T1: 516.97 (pivot) · T2: 510.90 (cam S3) · R:R: 1.7
Direction: Short (fade). Reasoning: AMD ran +7.00% into earnings and its MACD is still bearish (-7.60 vs -4.03). Classic cam R3 fade after an extended session. Invalidate above R4.

3. GOOGL - Camarilla breakout long
Cam: S3 374.07 · S1 376.46 || R1 378.84 · R3 381.23 · R4 384.81
Entry: 385.20 above cam R4 · Stop: 378.80 (cam R1) · T1: 392.00 · T2: 395.97 (classic R3) · R:R: 1.7
Direction: Long. Reasoning: Cam R4 breach signals trend-day expansion. Bull above all EMAs, RSI 62.6, above POC 360.81, MACD improving.

4. CSCO - Pivot bounce long
Pivot 120.79 · cam S3 120.87 · S1 119.68 - pivot and cam S3 are 0.08 apart.
Entry: 120.90 · Stop: 119.55 (below S1) · T1: 122.85 (R1) · T2: 123.96 (R2) · R:R: 2.3
Direction: Long. Reasoning: Tightest pivot/Camarilla confluence in the index. +5.08% today, Bull above all EMAs, only 6.6% from its 52w high, above POC 116.13.

5. MU - Camarilla range long
Cam: S4 868.51 · S3 880.59 · S1 888.64 || R1 896.70 · R3 904.75 · R4 916.83
Entry: 881.50 at cam S3 · Stop: 866.50 (below cam S4 and S1 866.64) · T1: 896.70 (cam R1) · T2: 910.57 (classic R1) · R:R: 1.9
Direction: Long (mean reversion). Reasoning: Cam S3-S4 range trade only. Note MU closed below its EMA20 (899.26) despite +7.67% and remains 39.59 below POC 932.26 - this is a scalp, not a swing. ATR 87.72 means size down hard.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

NVDA 211.88
Cam: S4 209.67 · S3 210.78 · S1 211.51 || R1 212.25 · R3 212.98 · R4 214.09
Classic: S3 205.59 · S2 207.32 · S1 209.60 · P 211.33 · R1 213.61 · R2 215.34 · R3 217.62
EMA20 203.33 · EMA50 203.89 · EMA200 191.88 · POC 209.27
Prev H 213.06 · Prev L 209.05 · 52w H 236.54 · 52w L 164.07

MSFT 492.81
Cam: S4 481.66 · S3 487.24 · S1 490.95 || R1 494.67 · R3 498.38 · R4 503.96
Classic: S3 461.24 · S2 470.20 · S1 481.51 · P 490.47 · R1 501.78 · R2 510.74 · R3 522.05
EMA20 418.19 · EMA50 406.25 · EMA200 423.68 · POC 405.17
Prev H 499.44 · Prev L 479.17 · 52w H 553.72 · 52w L 349.20

AVGO 418.16
Cam: S4 406.40 · S3 412.28 · S1 416.20 || R1 420.12 · R3 424.04 · R4 429.92
Classic: S3 383.81 · S2 392.25 · S1 405.20 · P 413.64 · R1 426.59 · R2 435.03 · R3 447.98
EMA20 388.54 · EMA50 389.42 · EMA200 361.28 · POC 401.16
Prev H 422.07 · Prev L 400.68 · 52w H 495.00 · 52w L 281.87

AMD 518.58
Cam: S4 503.22 · S3 510.90 · S1 516.02 || R1 521.14 · R3 526.26 · R4 533.94
Classic: S3 475.88 · S2 489.04 · S1 503.81 · P 516.97 · R1 531.74 · R2 544.90 · R3 559.67
EMA20 503.68 · EMA50 487.48 · EMA200 347.58 · POC 498.21
Prev H 530.13 · Prev L 502.20 · 52w H 584.73 · 52w L 149.22

MRVL 218.59
Cam: S4 210.52 · S3 214.56 · S1 217.25 || R1 219.93 · R3 222.62 · R4 226.66
Classic: S3 195.50 · S2 201.75 · S1 210.17 · P 216.42 · R1 224.84 · R2 231.09 · R3 239.51
EMA20 206.10 · EMA50 213.95 · EMA200 156.40 · POC 252.46
Prev H 222.67 · Prev L 208.00 · 52w H 329.88 · 52w L 61.44



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Index EMA20 is still below EMA50. 28750.14 versus 28805.48. A 3.32% session did not repair the short-term stack. Until the 20 crosses back over the 50, this is technically still a recovery inside a damaged structure.

2. Index MACD remains below zero. -216.23 with signal at -294.64. The crossover is bullish, but a sub-zero MACD means the medium-term momentum regime has not flipped.

3. The semiconductor rally is structurally hollow. Eight of the twelve semi names still carry bearish MACD readings and seven remain below their 60-day POC despite an average gain near 6.6%. QCOM (-37.4% from high), KLAC (-36.4%), SNPS (-36.6%) and MRVL (-33.7%) bounced from deeply broken charts. QCOM, TXN, KLAC and CDNS are still below their 20 and 50 EMAs after the move.

4. MU closed below its 20 EMA on a +7.67% day. 892.67 versus EMA20 899.26, with MACD -34.12 against signal -27.77 (the widest negative spread in the index) and POC 932.26 nearly 40 points overhead. A rally that fails to reclaim the shortest average is a warning, not a signal.

5. MAR - heavy distribution. RSI 32.1, the lowest in the index, closed -0.39% on relative volume 2.04 - double normal volume on a down day while the index gained 3.32%. Below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, 29 points under POC 374.33. The 200 EMA at 340.61 is the last defence, 4.59 points away.

6. Full bearish EMA stacks: META (-26.2% from high, below POC), TSLA (-34.4%, near 52w low), TMUS (-32.2%), ISRG (-39.0%), LIN (RSI 35.1), QCOM (-37.4%). Six names below all three EMAs.

7. Overbought readings: MSFT RSI 79.0, REGN RSI 76.7, PYPL RSI 75.0. All three are extended and vulnerable to mean reversion. MSFT in particular is 74.62 points above its own 20 EMA.

8. Four-day extension. The index has added 9.34% in four sessions and sits 3.42% above its 20 EMA. With ATR at 660.18, a single mean-reversion session could retrace 600-900 points without damaging the structure. Chasing at 29733 carries poor risk-reward against S1 at 29284.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Wednesday 5 August
ADP National Employment Report (July) - consensus around 70k-90k private jobs, previous 98k. 13:15 UK.
S&P Global final US Services PMI (July).
ISM Services PMI (July) - consensus near 54.5. 15:00 UK. The week's main pre-payrolls read on the services economy.

Thursday 6 August
Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 1 August) - consensus near 200k-205k after 197k prior. 13:30 UK.

Friday 7 August
Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (July) - 13:30 UK. Consensus roughly 80k-100k, unemployment expected near 4.2%. The highest-impact release of the week and the primary risk event for this rally. Expect positioning ahead of it from Thursday's close.

Earnings
AMD reported Q2 after today's close - consensus was 1.61 per share on revenue near 11.3bn. The reaction will set the tone for the entire semiconductor complex on Wednesday given today's 7.00% pre-print move. This is the single largest stock-specific risk on the board.
Q2 reporting continues across the index through August. Check individual dates before holding any position through a print - several of the 40 names above have unconfirmed dates in the next fortnight.



SUMMARY
A genuinely strong session: 3.32% higher, closing on the high, on 30% above-average volume with 3-to-1 breadth. Twenty of the forty large caps are now above all three EMAs and software/cloud leadership is intact with PANW, FTNT and CRWD all within 3% of 52-week highs.

The reservations are real though. The index EMA20 is still below the EMA50, MACD is still negative, and the group that drove today's move - semiconductors - remains the most technically damaged part of the index. This looks like a recovery that has earned the benefit of the doubt but not yet proved itself.

Levels that decide it: hold 29284 (S1) and 30000 comes into play. Lose 28836 (S2, sitting on both the 20 and 50 EMAs) and the four-day rally is in question. NFP on Friday is the arbiter.


Report: 4 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 3 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 28776.80 | Change: +502.61 (+1.78%) | Range: 28196.88-28842.36
DATA NOTE: Index analysis uses Monday 3 August's close. The 40-stock component scanner has not refreshed today - the latest component dataset is Friday 31 July close and every component price, RSI, MACD and EMA figure below is dated 31 July unless explicitly marked. Five components (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, CSCO) do have same-day 3 August data and are shown separately. Validate all component levels against Tuesday's open before acting.


MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed Monday at 28776.80, up 502.61 points (+1.78%), the strongest session since the late-July washout. The index opened at 28278.59, held the 28196.88 low in the first hour and then ran almost uninterrupted into the close, printing 28842.36 at the high and finishing in the top 10% of the day's 645-point range - a genuinely constructive close rather than a fade.
Volume of 1.47bn was broadly in line with the recent run rate, so this was a real bid rather than a thin-tape drift. The driver was follow-through from last week's mega-cap earnings: Amazon and Microsoft both gapped and extended (AMZN +4.58% to 284.02, MSFT +4.93% to 487.65 on the day), with the market re-rating the AI capex cycle after strong cloud numbers. Oil slid on renewed Iran talks, which took some pressure off the rates complex and gave duration-sensitive growth names room to run.
Bias: Cautiously bullish into Tuesday. Price has reclaimed the 20 and 50-day EMAs on the same session, momentum has turned up from oversold, but the 20 EMA is still below the 50 EMA and the semiconductor complex has not confirmed. This is a repair rally that needs a second close above 28840 to become a trend.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100 daily): EMA20 28646.66 . EMA50 28767.62 . EMA200 26874.50
Close 28776.80 is above all three - but only just above the 50 EMA (by 9.2 points) and the stack itself is not aligned: EMA20 sits 121 points below EMA50, the residue of the July drawdown. A true bull configuration needs EMA20 to cross back above EMA50, which on current slope is roughly three to five sessions away if price holds 28650.
Structure: The index topped at 30660.60 in early June, then built a lower-high sequence through July into the 27192.31 low on 29 July. Monday's close is a 5.8% recovery off that low and has broken the July down-trendline. The first meaningful lower high to reclaim sits at 29155-29366; until that goes, the structure is still corrective.
Phase: Late-stage pullback / early repair inside a primary uptrend. Price is 7.1% above the 200 EMA and 26.4% above the 52-week low (22763.31), so the long-term trend is intact and unthreatened. The 200 EMA has not flattened.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 50.01, up from 44.96 on Friday. The midline has been reclaimed on the first attempt, which is what you want to see in a repair. There is a clear bullish divergence on the daily: the 27192 low on 29 July printed a higher RSI trough than the 27763 low that preceded it, so selling pressure was already exhausting before the bounce. No negative divergence anywhere near current levels.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD line -347.11, signal -314.24, histogram -32.86. Still below zero and still below signal, so on a strict reading this remains a sell configuration. But the histogram has compressed hard from -105.71 to -32.86 in one session - a 69% narrowing - which puts a bullish MACD cross within one to two sessions if Tuesday holds green. Zero-line reclaim is a long way off and would need roughly 29200.
Volume: 1.473bn against a 20-session average near 1.50bn. Not a volume breakout, which is the main caveat on the day. Constructive closes on average volume are fine in a repair phase but institutional confirmation would want 1.7bn+ on the next push through 28840.
Volatility: VIX at 15.58, down from 15.87 and pressing multi-week lows. A sub-16 VIX with the index 6% off its highs is a mildly complacent combination - it supports the drift-higher case but leaves little cushion if Friday's payrolls disappoints.


KEY INDEX LEVELS - TUESDAY 4 AUGUST
Classic pivots from Monday's 28842.36 / 28196.88 / 28776.80:
R3 29659 . R2 29251 . R1 29014 . PIVOT 28605 . S1 28368 . S2 27960 . S3 27723
Camarilla: S4 28422 . S3 28599 . S2 28658 . S1 28718 || R1 28836 . R2 28895 . R3 28954 . R4 29132
Resistance
28836-28842 - Camarilla R1 sitting exactly on Monday's high. This is the first line and the single most important number on the sheet.
28954 - Camarilla R3, the classic breakout trigger. Above here the day converts to trend-up.
29014-29132 - classic R1 into Camarilla R4, plus the round 29000. Expect supply.
Support
28647-28658 - EMA20 stacked with Camarilla S2. First defence.
28599-28605 - Camarilla S3 on the daily pivot. Very high-confluence shelf; losing it on a closing basis negates Monday.
28422 - Camarilla S4, then classic S1 at 28368 and Monday's 28196.88 low.
Round numbers in play: 29000 above, 28500 and 28000 below.


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
All 40 rows below are dated Friday 31 July close. Trend column uses strict EMA classification (close versus each of EMA20 / EMA50 / EMA200).

AAPL 308.91 -7.35% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 43.2 Weak . MACD Bear . -10.3% from 52wH . above POC
MSFT 464.72 +3.02% . Bull above all . RSI 74.5 OB . MACD Bull . -16.3% from 52wH . above POC
NVDA 200.75 +2.93% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 48.3 Neut . MACD Bear . -15.1% from 52wH . below POC
AMZN 271.58 +15.32% . Bull above all . RSI 67.9 Bull . MACD Bull . -2.5% from 52wH . above POC
META 556.71 +3.28% . Bear below all . RSI 37.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -30.1% from 52wH . below POC
GOOGL 356.13 +6.73% . Bull above all . RSI 54.3 Neut . MACD Bull . -12.8% from 52wH . below POC
AVGO 389.28 +0.37% . Bull above all . RSI 51.5 Neut . MACD Bull . -21.4% from 52wH . below POC
TSLA 311.20 +0.76% . Bear below all . RSI 31.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -37.6% from 52wH . below POC
COST 951.89 -0.24% . Mixed >20 <50 <200 . RSI 51.4 Neut . MACD Bull . -13.2% from 52wH . below POC
NFLX 71.71 -2.00% . Bear below all . RSI 44.6 Weak . MACD Bull . -43.4% from 52wH . below POC
AMD 476.15 -1.90% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 45.2 Neut . MACD Bear . -18.6% from 52wH . below POC
ADBE 250.41 +1.01% . Bull above 20/50 . RSI 59.8 Bull . MACD Bull . -32.5% from 52wH . above POC
QCOM 147.61 -2.63% . Bear below all . RSI 28.9 OS . MACD Bear . -43.2% from 52wH . below POC
TMUS 172.71 -0.36% . Bear below all . RSI 41.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -34.0% from 52wH . below POC
LIN 478.38 -5.95% . Bear below all . RSI 30.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -12.7% from 52wH . below POC
ISRG 353.33 +0.10% . Bear below all . RSI 40.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -41.5% from 52wH . below POC
INTU 316.07 +0.18% . Bull above 20/50 . RSI 59.1 Bull . MACD Bull . -60.8% from 52wH . above POC
CSCO 115.99 +2.14% . Bull above all . RSI 52.8 Neut . MACD Bull . -11.0% from 52wH . above POC
TXN 275.74 -1.08% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 41.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -17.5% from 52wH . below POC
AMAT 507.67 +1.18% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 45.3 Neut . MACD Bear . -31.4% from 52wH . below POC
BKNG 192.90 -0.18% . Bull above all . RSI 60.0 Bull . MACD Bull . -16.8% from 52wH . above POC
PANW 331.83 +1.89% . Bull above all . RSI 54.6 Neut . MACD Bear . -10.0% from 52wH . above POC
MU 823.03 -5.90% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 43.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -34.4% from 52wH . below POC
LRCX 293.15 -1.53% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 43.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -33.1% from 52wH . below POC
KLAC 182.82 +1.38% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 38.2 Weak . MACD Bear . -40.5% from 52wH . below POC
ADI 367.41 +0.20% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 42.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -17.6% from 52wH . below POC
REGN 762.63 +3.29% . Bull above all . RSI 78.1 OB . MACD Bull . -7.1% from 52wH . above POC
SNPS 388.76 +4.41% . Bear below all . RSI 40.2 Weak . MACD Bull . -39.8% from 52wH . below POC
CDNS 340.02 +2.16% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 43.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -18.4% from 52wH . below POC
MELI 1877.95 -0.41% . Bull above all . RSI 64.5 Bull . MACD Bull . -26.3% from 52wH . above POC
CRWD 190.86 +3.05% . Bull above all . RSI 54.3 Neut . MACD Bear . -12.2% from 52wH . above POC
MAR 372.95 -0.67% . Mixed <20 >50 >200 . RSI 48.4 Neut . MACD Bull . -9.3% from 52wH . below POC
ABNB 151.52 -0.37% . Bull above all . RSI 59.7 Bull . MACD Bull . -3.2% from 52wH . above POC
MRVL 187.56 +2.32% . Bear below 20/50 . RSI 41.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -43.1% from 52wH . below POC
DASH 196.16 -0.69% . Bull above all . RSI 59.9 Bull . MACD Bull . -31.3% from 52wH . above POC
FTNT 161.95 +4.99% . Bull above all . RSI 60.1 Bull . MACD Bear . -4.9% from 52wH . above POC
CEG 262.75 -0.31% . Mixed >20 <50 <200 . RSI 51.0 Neut . MACD Bull . -36.3% from 52wH . below POC
WDAY 160.34 +1.41% . Bull above 20/50 . RSI 62.0 Bull . MACD Bull . -35.8% from 52wH . above POC
PYPL 57.21 -0.76% . Bull above all . RSI 72.0 OB . MACD Bull . -27.8% from 52wH . above POC
ORLY 89.35 +2.28% . Bull above 20/50 . RSI 53.0 Neut . MACD Bull . -17.8% from 52wH . above POC


MONDAY 3 AUGUST - SAME-DAY COMPONENT DATA
These five names appeared in Monday's scan and are current as of the 3 August close.
MSFT 487.65 +4.93% . Bull above all (EMA20 410.33, EMA50 402.72, EMA200 422.98) . RSI 78.3 overbought . ATR 16.79
AMZN 284.02 +4.58% . Bull above all (EMA20 246.59, EMA50 245.88, EMA200 236.37) . RSI 72.2 overbought . ATR 9.95 . new 52-week high 287.20
NVDA 206.64 +2.93% . Bull above all (EMA20 202.43, EMA50 203.57, EMA200 191.68) . RSI 53.1 . ATR 7.79 . reclaimed both short EMAs on the day
CSCO 115.86 -0.11% . Bull above all (EMA20 114.59, EMA50 112.79, EMA200 94.14) . RSI 52.6 . ATR 3.58
AAPL 303.42 -1.78% . Bear below 20/50 (EMA20 320.81, EMA50 309.64, EMA200 279.30) . RSI 40.3 . ATR 9.83 . the clear laggard of the mega-caps


SECTOR GROUPING
Averages below are 31 July session moves.
Mega-cap Tech (AAPL MSFT NVDA AMZN META GOOGL TSLA) - avg +3.53%. Three bullish, two below 20/50, two fully bearish. The group is carrying the index but the leadership is narrow: AMZN, MSFT and GOOGL are doing the work while META (-30% from highs) and TSLA (-37.6%) remain broken.
Semiconductors (AVGO AMD QCOM MU AMAT LRCX KLAC ADI TXN MRVL) - avg -0.76%. The weak link. Eight of ten sit below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, only AVGO is bullish, and every single name in the group has a bearish MACD. MU fell 5.90%, QCOM 2.63%. Until semis participate, index rallies stay suspect.
Software/Cloud (ADBE INTU CSCO PANW CRWD SNPS CDNS WDAY FTNT) - avg +2.36%. The healthiest group: seven of nine above their 20 and 50 EMAs, FTNT +4.99%, SNPS +4.41% off a deeply oversold base. EDA names (SNPS, CDNS) remain the exception and are still in downtrends.
Consumer/Internet (COST NFLX BKNG MELI MAR ABNB DASH ORLY PYPL TMUS) - avg -0.34%. Mixed and rangebound. Five bullish (BKNG, MELI, ABNB, DASH, PYPL) against genuinely weak TMUS and NFLX, both within 11% of 52-week lows.
Healthcare/Biotech (ISRG REGN) - avg +1.70%. Complete split: REGN +3.29% with RSI 78 and MACD 20.21 over 11.37 is one of the strongest charts in the index; ISRG is below all three EMAs and 41.5% off its high.
Industrial/Other (LIN CEG) - avg -3.13%. LIN dropped 5.95% on 2.47x relative volume into RSI 30.1 and is below all three EMAs. CEG is drifting under its 50 and 200.


TOP SWING SETUPS
1. MSFT - momentum continuation (3 August data)
Price 487.65, extended 19% above the 20 EMA with RSI 78.3, so this is a continuation trade and not a chase - wait for the pullback or the hold.
Entry: 480.00 on a hold . Stop: 462.00 . T1: 510.00 . T2: 530.00 . R:R: 1.67 to T1, 2.78 to T2
Confluence: above all three EMAs, MACD 9.30 over 1.83, POC 401.74 far below, cloud earnings re-rating. Risk: RSI 78 means a 1-2 ATR shakeout is likely first.

2. AMZN - 52-week high breakout (3 August data)
Closed 284.02 having tagged 287.20, the 52-week high, on the day. Cleanest chart in the index.
Entry: 287.50 on the break . Stop: 277.50 . T1: 302.00 . T2: 317.00 . R:R: 1.45 to T1, 2.95 to T2
Confluence: 1 ATR stop, all EMAs stacked bullish and rising, POC 248.07 well below, 2.80x relative volume on the earnings gap. Risk: RSI 72.2, a failed breakout back under 284 voids it.

3. NVDA - EMA reclaim (3 August data)
Monday's +2.93% took price back above both the 20 EMA (202.43) and 50 EMA (203.57) for the first time since mid-July. RSI 53.1 leaves plenty of room.
Entry: 207.50 . Stop: 199.50 . T1: 220.00 . T2: 230.00 . R:R: 1.56 to T1, 2.81 to T2
Confluence: 1 ATR stop below the reclaimed EMA pair, 200 EMA 191.68 as the disaster line, best risk-reward of the mega-caps. Risk: AMD reports Tuesday after the bell and will move the whole AI-chip complex.

4. AAPL - short the failed reclaim (3 August data)
The only mega-cap below its 20 and 50 EMAs and it fell 1.78% on a day the index gained 1.78%. That relative weakness is the trade.
Entry: 300.00 on the break . Stop: 311.00 (above the 50 EMA at 309.64) . T1: 285.00 . T2: 279.50 . R:R: 1.36 to T1, 1.86 to T2
Confluence: RSI 40.3 and falling, 20 EMA 320.81 capping, T2 sits precisely on the 200 EMA at 279.30. Risk: the 200 EMA has held every test this year - take T2 seriously as a cover.

5. GOOGL - trend continuation (31 July data - re-check before acting)
Above all three EMAs (20 at 344.83, 50 at 351.52, 200 at 320.19) with a MACD turning up from below zero (-6.14 over -6.63) and 1.53x relative volume.
Entry: 356.00 . Stop: 342.00 (below the 20 EMA at 344.83) . T1: 382.00 . T2: 400.00 . R:R: 1.86 to T1, 3.14 to T2
Confluence: price is pressing the 60-day POC at 361.37 from below - reclaiming it is the actual trigger. Risk: these levels are two sessions old - GOOGL has almost certainly moved.


INTRADAY SETUPS - NAS100, TUESDAY 4 AUGUST
All levels derived from Monday's actual 28842.36 / 28196.88 / 28776.80.
1. Camarilla breakout long
Direction: Long . Entry: 28954 on the break of Camarilla R3 . Stop: 28895 . T1: 29132 . T2: 29251 . R:R: 3.02 to T1
Reasoning: R3 is the classic Camarilla trend trigger. Clearing it after Monday's strong close would confirm continuation and open the 29000 round number and R4.

2. Pivot bounce long
Direction: Long . Entry: 28610 on a pullback . Stop: 28470 . T1: 28836 . T2: 28954 . R:R: 1.61 to T1, 2.46 to T2
Reasoning: the highest-confluence zone on the sheet - daily pivot 28605, Camarilla S3 28599 and EMA20 28647 all within 50 points. Buy the first test, not the third.

3. Camarilla range fade short
Direction: Short . Entry: 28950 on rejection (wick and close back under R3) . Stop: 29020 . T1: 28718 . T2: 28605 . R:R: 3.31 to T1
Reasoning: valid only if the tape is choppy and R3 rejects rather than breaks. Camarilla theory says a failed R3 reverts to the S-side. Do not run this and setup 1 simultaneously - wait for the market to pick.

4. Breakdown short
Direction: Short . Entry: 28420 on the loss of Camarilla S4 . Stop: 28530 . T1: 28197 . T2: 27960 . R:R: 2.03 to T1, 4.18 to T2
Reasoning: losing S4 negates Monday entirely and puts the 28196.88 low and classic S2 back in play. This is the hedge against a soft ADP or a bad AMD print.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 BY WEIGHT
Component levels below are from the 31 July dataset. NAS100 row is Monday 3 August.
NAS100 (3 Aug) . Cam: S4 28422 . S3 28599 . S1 28718 || R1 28836 . R3 28954 . R4 29132 . Classic: S3 27723 . S2 27960 . S1 28368 . P 28605 . R1 29014 . R2 29251 . R3 29659 . EMA20 28647 . EMA50 28768 . EMA200 26875 . Prev H/L 28842/28197 . 52w H/L 30661/22763
AAPL (3 Aug) . EMA20 320.81 . EMA50 309.64 . EMA200 279.30 . POC 304.94 . 52w H/L 344.57/201.50 . close 303.42
MSFT (3 Aug) . EMA20 410.33 . EMA50 402.72 . EMA200 422.98 . POC 401.74 . 52w H/L 555.45/349.20 . close 487.65
NVDA (3 Aug) . EMA20 202.43 . EMA50 203.57 . EMA200 191.68 . POC 209.25 . 52w H/L 236.54/164.07 . close 206.64
AMZN (3 Aug) . EMA20 246.59 . EMA50 245.88 . EMA200 236.37 . POC 248.07 . 52w H/L 287.20/196.00 . close 284.02
GOOGL (31 Jul) . EMA20 344.83 . EMA50 351.52 . EMA200 320.19 . POC 361.37 . 52w H/L 408.61/187.82 . close 356.13


BEARISH WARNINGS
Semiconductors are not confirming. All ten semis in the index carry a bearish MACD and eight of ten sit below both their 20 and 50-day EMAs. MU (MACD -37.41 vs -23.06), AMAT (-19.92 vs -9.21), LRCX (-17.64 vs -13.16), MRVL (-17.81 vs -15.47) and KLAC (-12.31 vs -7.24) all show widening bearish histograms - the deterioration is accelerating, not stabilising. An index rally the semis refuse to join has a short shelf life.
Nine components sit within 15% of their 52-week lows: TMUS (+4.3% off the low), TSLA (+4.6%), SNPS (+6.2%), META (+7.0%), ISRG (+7.5%), ORLY (+8.2%), NFLX (+10.2%), COST (+12.8%), CEG (+14.9%). That is nearly a quarter of the index still in its own bear market.
Oversold and still falling: QCOM RSI 28.9 (-43.2% from its high, below all EMAs), LIN RSI 30.1 on 2.47x volume, TSLA RSI 31.7. Oversold is not a buy signal while the MACD histogram is still expanding to the downside.
Overbought into resistance: REGN RSI 78.1 and MSFT RSI 74.5 are both extended. No bearish RSI divergence is present on either yet, but position size accordingly - these are the names that give back 2 ATR on a bad tape day.
Structural: the index EMA20 is still below EMA50 and the MACD is still under signal and under zero. Nothing about Monday has fixed that yet - one strong session is a start, not a confirmation.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Tuesday 4 August - AMD reports after the close, the single most important event for this index this week. AMD is 476.15 (31 Jul) and already below its 20 and 50 EMAs with MACD -10.32 against a -1.32 signal; the whole semiconductor complex trades off this print. SpaceX also reports its first quarterly results as a public company. JOLTS job openings.
Wednesday 5 August - ADP national employment report, the first real read into Friday's payrolls. ISM Services PMI for July. Uber, Shopify and Arista report.
Thursday 6 August - Challenger job cuts, weekly jobless claims. Fed speakers Cook, Musalem and Barkin are scheduled across the week - colour rather than policy signals ahead of payrolls.
Friday 7 August - July non-farm payrolls, consensus near +85k against +57k in June. This is the week's macro pivot. A hot number pushes rate-cut odds out and hurts the long-duration growth names that have been leading; a soft number cuts both ways given the labour market is already cooling.
Also this week from the wider tape: Palantir, Sandisk, McDonald's, Caterpillar, Merck and Disney.


Report: 4 August 2026 00:15 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - 31 July 2026
Data: Close 31 Jul 2026 | NAS100: 28,274.20 | Change: +167.85 (+0.60%) | Range: 27,954.24 - 28,606.78
Scanner data date: 31 Jul 2026 (current session) | Breadth: 22 up / 18 down | VIX: 15.99 (-6.4%)




MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 closed at 28,274.20, up +167.85 points (+0.60%) on the session, with a wide 652-point range between 27,954.24 and 28,606.78. The index gapped higher on the open at 28,446.99, tagged 28,606.78 and then gave back the bulk of the move into the close - an upper wick of roughly 333 points against a lower wick of 320. That is a classic indecision candle after a sharp two-day bounce off the 27,176 low printed on 29 July.
Context matters here. The index has now recovered +1,097 points (+4.0%) from Wednesday's intraday low, but it still sits below both the 20 and 50-day EMAs and remains -8.1% below the 52-week high of 30,762.20. This is a relief rally inside a corrective structure, not a resumption of trend - until 28,633 (EMA20) is reclaimed and held on a closing basis.
Drivers: a sharp collapse in volatility (VIX down to 15.99 from 20.66 two sessions ago), heavy megacap dispersion - Amazon up nearly 6% on more than 2.8x average volume while Apple fell 2.3% on 2.4x volume - and continued weakness across the semiconductor complex.
Bias: Cautiously bearish below 28,633 . Neutral-to-constructive only on a daily close back above the 20-day EMA. Momentum is still negative, but downside conviction is fading with VIX at 16.




TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100): EMA20 28,632.96 | EMA50 28,767.24 | EMA200 26,714.62
Price 28,274.20 is below EMA20 (-358.76) and below EMA50 (-493.04), but comfortably above EMA200 (+1,559.58, +5.8%).
The 20-day has crossed below the 50-day - a short-term bearish cross - while the 50-day remains well above the rising 200-day. That is the textbook signature of a pullback inside a primary uptrend, not a trend reversal. The 200-day at 26,715 is the line that separates correction from something more serious, and it is still 5.8% away.
Structure: Lower high at 30,762 (52-week), lower high on the 24 July bounce, and a higher low on 29 July at 27,176 versus the prior swing low. Compression. The index is coiling between 27,176 and 28,767 - the resolution of that range sets the next 1,000 points.
Phase: Late-stage corrective consolidation. Wyckoff-wise this looks like a secondary test rather than a spring - volume on the bounce has been unremarkable relative to the decline.




MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 45.0 - neutral, sitting just under the 50 midline. RSI made a higher low on 29 July while price made a marginally lower low, a modest bullish divergence. However, RSI has failed at 50 on each of the last three attempts. The 50-55 band is the gate: clear it and the bounce has legs.
MACD: -411.74 | Signal: -306.03 | Histogram: -105.71 - MACD remains below its signal line and below zero. The histogram is still negative but has narrowed over the last two sessions, so downside momentum is decelerating. No bullish crossover yet - that would need roughly two more sessions of this size of gain.
Volume: 1.60bn shares on the index versus recent sessions in the 8-9bn range on the composite tape - the bounce is not being driven by broad institutional accumulation. Individual names tell the story better: relative volume above 2.0x on only three of the forty components (AMZN 2.80, LIN 2.47, AAPL 2.44).
Breadth: 22 advancers / 18 decliners - marginally positive but nothing decisive. 18 of 40 components are in a defined bearish EMA configuration versus 18 bullish, with 4 mixed. That is a genuinely split index.




KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance:
R1 28,607 - session high and classic pivot R1 (28,603). First hurdle.
R2 28,633 - 28,767 - the EMA20/EMA50 band. The decisive zone. Closing above 28,767 flips the short-term structure bullish.
R3 28,931 - 29,000 - pivot R2 and the round number. Confluence.
Support:
S1 28,106 - Thursday's close and pivot S1 (27,950) upper edge. Losing 28,106 on a closing basis invalidates the bounce.
S2 27,954 - today's low and classic pivot S1. Must hold.
S3 27,626 - 27,176 - pivot S2 down to the 29 July swing low. Breaking 27,176 opens the door to 26,715 (EMA200).
Classic pivots (from today's H/L/C): S2 27,626 . S1 27,950 . P 28,278 . R1 28,603 . R2 28,931
Round numbers in play: 28,000 . 28,500 . 29,000 . 30,000




COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Day% . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI . MACD . % from 52w high . POC
AMZN 271.58 . +5.98% . Bull (above all) . RSI 67.9 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -2.5% . POC Above
FTNT 161.95 . +3.18% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.1 Bull . MACD Bear . 52wH -4.9% . POC Above
ORLY 89.35 . +2.62% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 53.0 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -17.8% . POC Above
GOOGL 356.13 . +1.93% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.3 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -12.8% . POC Below
CSCO 115.99 . +1.88% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.8 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -11.0% . POC Above
CRWD 190.86 . +1.62% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.3 Bull . MACD Bear . 52wH -12.2% . POC Above
NVDA 200.75 . +1.48% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.3 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -15.1% . POC Below
MRVL 187.56 . +1.25% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.6 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -43.1% . POC Below
SNPS 388.76 . +1.15% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.2 Bear . MACD Bull . 52wH -39.8% . POC Below
WDAY 160.34 . +0.89% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 62.0 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -35.8% . POC Above
KLAC 182.82 . +0.76% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 38.2 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -40.5% . POC Below
MSFT 464.72 . +0.65% . Bull (above all) . RSI 74.5 OB . MACD Bull . 52wH -16.3% . POC Above
CDNS 340.02 . +0.64% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.0 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -18.4% . POC Below
META 556.71 . +0.59% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.8 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -30.1% . POC Below
PANW 331.83 . +0.57% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.6 Bull . MACD Bear . 52wH -10.0% . POC Above
REGN 762.63 . +0.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.1 OB . MACD Bull . 52wH -7.1% . POC Above
ADBE 250.41 . +0.40% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 59.8 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -32.5% . POC Above
TSLA 311.20 . +0.24% . Bear (below all) . RSI 31.7 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -37.6% . POC Below
AMAT 507.67 . +0.23% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.3 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -31.4% . POC Below
AVGO 389.28 . +0.10% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.5 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -21.4% . POC Below
INTU 316.07 . +0.06% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 59.1 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -60.8% . POC Above
ADI 367.41 . +0.05% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.6 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -17.6% . POC Below
ISRG 353.33 . +0.03% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.0 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -41.5% . POC Below
MELI 1877.95 . -0.02% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.5 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -26.3% . POC Above
COST 951.89 . -0.03% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.4 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -13.2% . POC Below
BKNG 192.90 . -0.09% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.0 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -16.8% . POC Above
CEG 262.75 . -0.12% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.0 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -36.3% . POC Below
MAR 372.95 . -0.18% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.4 Bear . MACD Bull . 52wH -9.3% . POC Below
TMUS 172.71 . -0.21% . Bear (below all) . RSI 41.1 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -34.0% . POC Below
ABNB 151.52 . -0.24% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.7 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -3.2% . POC Above
DASH 196.16 . -0.35% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.9 Bull . MACD Bull . 52wH -31.3% . POC Above
TXN 275.74 . -0.39% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.8 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -17.5% . POC Below
AMD 476.15 . -0.40% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.2 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -18.6% . POC Below
LRCX 293.15 . -0.52% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.6 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -33.1% . POC Below
MU 823.03 . -0.71% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.6 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -34.4% . POC Below
LIN 478.38 . -1.23% . Bear (below all) . RSI 30.1 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -12.7% . POC Below
PYPL 57.21 . -1.31% . Bull (above all) . RSI 72.0 OB . MACD Bull . 52wH -27.8% . POC Above
QCOM 147.61 . -1.75% . Bear (below all) . RSI 28.9 OS . MACD Bear . 52wH -43.2% . POC Below
AAPL 308.91 . -2.32% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.2 Bear . MACD Bear . 52wH -10.3% . POC Above
NFLX 71.71 . -2.71% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.6 Bear . MACD Bull . 52wH -43.4% . POC Below




SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech
7/9 advancing . avg RSI 50.4 . 4/9 bullish EMA structure
Total dispersion. AMZN is the standout - Bull above all three EMAs, only 2.5% off its 52-week high, on 2.8x relative volume. MSFT (RSI 74.5) and GOOGL are also above all EMAs. Against that, META, TSLA and NFLX are below all three EMAs, and AAPL and NVDA sit below their 20/50. The group is carrying the index on three names.

Semiconductors
4/9 advancing . avg RSI 41.2 . 0/9 bullish EMA structure
The weakest sector on the board. Every single one of the nine is below its 20 and 50-day EMA and every single one has a bearish MACD. Average RSI 42.9. QCOM is outright oversold at 28.9 and below all three EMAs. MU histogram -14.35 and AMAT -10.71 are the two heaviest negative momentum readings in the index. Until semis stabilise, NAS100 rallies will keep failing.

Software / Cloud
9/9 advancing . avg RSI 54.0 . 7/9 bullish EMA structure
The most constructive sector. Six of nine are above their 20 and 50-day EMAs, and INTU (+5.16), ADBE (+3.41) and WDAY (+2.21) carry the strongest positive MACD histograms in the group. The two EDA names are the exception - SNPS and CDNS are both broken, sitting 39.9% and 18.4% below their 52-week highs.

Consumer / Internet
1/9 advancing . avg RSI 56.7 . 6/9 bullish EMA structure
Mixed but improving. ABNB, BKNG, DASH, MELI and ORLY are all above their 20/50-day EMAs and above their 60-day POC. PYPL is overbought at RSI 72.0. TMUS is the clear laggard, below all three EMAs with a bearish MACD and 34.0% off its high.

Healthcare / Biotech
2/2 advancing . avg RSI 59.0 . 1/2 bullish EMA structure
Split. REGN is one of the strongest names in the whole index - above all three EMAs, RSI 78.1, MACD histogram +8.84, only 7.1% from its 52-week high. ISRG is the opposite: below all three EMAs, RSI 40.0, 41.5% below its high.

Industrial / Other
0/2 advancing . avg RSI 40.5 . 0/2 bullish EMA structure
LIN fell 1.23% on 2.47x relative volume with RSI at 30.1 and is below all three EMAs - heavy distribution. CEG is mixed, above its 20-day but below the 50 and 200.





TOP SWING SETUPS
AMZN - LONG (271.58)
Entry: 269.20 . Stop: 254.94 . T1: 288.22 . T2: 302.49 . R:R: 1:1.33 . ATR14: 9.51
Strongest name in the index. Closed +5.98% on 2.80x relative volume - the highest in the forty - above all three EMAs (20: 242.65, 50: 244.32, 200: 235.89) and above its 60-day POC at 248.07. Only 2.51% below the 52-week high of 278.56. RSI 67.9 is strong without being extended. MACD histogram +1.22 and rising. Confluence: EMA20 reclaim, POC acceptance and volume expansion on the same bar.

REGN - LONG (762.63)
Entry: 757.37 . Stop: 725.81 . T1: 799.45 . T2: 831.01 . R:R: 1:1.33 . ATR14: 21.04
Above all three EMAs with the second-highest MACD histogram in the index (+8.84) and 1.47x relative volume. RSI 78.1 is overbought, so this is a pullback entry only - do not chase. 7.12% from the 52-week high of 821.11, the closest of any non-megacap. Confluence: POC at 646.54 now acts as the pullback floor.

ABNB - LONG (151.52)
Entry: 150.43 . Stop: 143.91 . T1: 159.13 . T2: 165.66 . R:R: 1:1.33 . ATR14: 4.35
Quietly one of the cleanest charts on the board - above all three EMAs, RSI 59.7, bullish MACD, and just 3.18% from its 52-week high of 156.50. Trading above POC 140.39. Low ATR (4.35) means a tight stop and a large position-size allowance for the same risk. Note: earnings are expected in the week ahead - size accordingly or wait.

META - SHORT (556.71)
Entry: 563.00 . Stop: 600.77 . T1: 512.64 . T2: 474.87 . R:R: 1:1.33 . ATR14: 25.18
Below all three EMAs (20: 602.15, 50: 606.99, 200: 629.26), RSI 37.8, and the most negative MACD histogram of any megacap at -11.14. Trading 30.08% below its 52-week high of 796.25 and below its POC at 603.23. Today's +0.59% was a dead-cat bounce into resistance. Confluence: EMA20 overhead, POC overhead, negative and widening MACD.

MU - SHORT (823.03)
Entry: 845.66 . Stop: 981.47 . T1: 664.58 . T2: 528.77 . R:R: 1:1.33 . ATR14: 90.54
The heaviest negative momentum in the index - MACD histogram -14.35. Below its 20 and 50-day EMAs, RSI 43.6, 34.42% below the 52-week high of 1255.00, and below POC 925.43. Sits inside the weakest sector on the board (semiconductors, 0/9 above their 20/50-day EMAs). Confluence: sector weakness plus stock-level breakdown.





INTRADAY SETUPS
All levels are next-session Camarilla and classic pivots derived from today's range.
NVDA - Camarilla range fade - SHORT
Entry: 202.69 . Stop: 204.63 . T1: 200.10 . T2: 199.23 . Direction: Short
Price closed at 200.75, pinned between the 20-day (201.99) and the 50-day (203.44) with RSI 48.3 and a bearish MACD. Below its POC at 209.25. Camarilla R3 is the classic reversal zone - fade the tag, stop above R4, target the pivot.

AAPL - Pivot bounce - LONG
Entry: 302.38 . Stop: 295.84 . T1: 306.53 . T2: 313.07 . Direction: Long
Sold off 2.32% on 2.44x relative volume to close at 308.91, but is still holding above its POC at 304.94 and well above the 200-day (279.06). Capitulation volume into pivot support. Buy the S1 test, stop below S2, target the pivot then R1. Counter-trend - the stock is below its 20 and 50-day EMAs, so take T1.

AMZN - Camarilla breakout - LONG
Entry: 277.75 . Stop: 274.67 . T1: 275.87 . T2: 280.16 . Direction: Long
The momentum play. Closed at 271.58 on the day's strength with relative volume 2.80x. A break and hold above Camarilla R4 is a genuine breakout signal on the highest-conviction name in the index. Stop back below R3, target classic R1 then R2.

QCOM - Camarilla range fade - LONG
Entry: 145.53 . Stop: 143.44 . T1: 148.30 . T2: 149.16 . Direction: Long
RSI 28.9 - the only oversold name in the index. Closed at 147.61, 43.21% below its 52-week high of 259.92 and below all three EMAs. This is a mean-reversion scalp only, not an investment - buy the S3 tag, stop below S4, target R1 then the pivot. The trend is firmly down; do not hold this overnight.

LIN - Camarilla range fade - SHORT
Entry: 483.07 . Stop: 487.77 . T1: 476.82 . T2: 468.86 . Direction: Short
Fell 1.23% on 2.47x relative volume - the second-heaviest in the index - with RSI 30.1 and below all three EMAs. Distribution. Any bounce into Camarilla R3 is a sell into supply, stop above R4, target S1.





KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
AAPL - 308.91 (Bear (below 20/50))
Camarilla: S4 303.03 . S3 305.97 . S1 307.93 || R1 309.89 . R3 311.85 . R4 314.79
Classic: S3 291.69 . S2 295.84 . S1 302.38 . P 306.53 . R1 313.07 . R2 317.22 . R3 323.76
EMAs: 20 322.64 . 50 309.90 . 200 279.06 | POC(60d): 304.94 | ATR14: 9.87
Prev session: H 310.69 . L 300.00 | 52-week: H 344.57 . L 201.50 | Rel vol: 2.44x

MSFT - 464.72 (Bull (above all))
Camarilla: S4 455.09 . S3 459.90 . S1 463.11 || R1 466.33 . R3 469.54 . R4 474.35
Classic: S3 436.24 . S2 442.79 . S1 453.75 . P 460.30 . R1 471.26 . R2 477.81 . R3 488.77
EMAs: 20 402.19 . 50 399.25 . 200 422.33 | POC(60d): 401.74 | ATR14: 16.02
Prev session: H 466.84 . L 449.33 | 52-week: H 555.45 . L 349.20 | Rel vol: 1.64x

NVDA - 200.75 (Bear (below 20/50))
Camarilla: S4 196.87 . S3 198.81 . S1 200.10 || R1 201.40 . R3 202.69 . R4 204.63
Classic: S3 189.42 . S2 192.18 . S1 196.47 . P 199.23 . R1 203.52 . R2 206.28 . R3 210.57
EMAs: 20 201.99 . 50 203.44 . 200 191.53 | POC(60d): 209.25 | ATR14: 7.47
Prev session: H 202.00 . L 194.95 | 52-week: H 236.54 . L 164.07 | Rel vol: 1.07x

AMZN - 271.58 (Bull (above all))
Camarilla: S4 265.41 . S3 268.49 . S1 270.55 || R1 272.61 . R3 274.67 . R4 277.75
Classic: S3 253.43 . S2 257.72 . S1 264.65 . P 268.94 . R1 275.87 . R2 280.16 . R3 287.09
EMAs: 20 242.65 . 50 244.32 . 200 235.89 | POC(60d): 248.07 | ATR14: 9.51
Prev session: H 273.23 . L 262.01 | 52-week: H 278.56 . L 196.00 | Rel vol: 2.80x

GOOGL - 356.13 (Bull (above all))
Camarilla: S4 345.91 . S3 351.02 . S1 354.43 || R1 357.83 . R3 361.24 . R4 366.35
Classic: S3 325.98 . S2 332.99 . S1 344.56 . P 351.57 . R1 363.14 . R2 370.15 . R3 381.72
EMAs: 20 344.83 . 50 351.52 . 200 320.19 | POC(60d): 361.37 | ATR14: 12.27
Prev session: H 358.58 . L 340.00 | 52-week: H 408.61 . L 187.82 | Rel vol: 1.53x





BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Death-cross structure (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA): ADBE, BKNG, CEG, COST, DASH, INTU, ISRG, MELI, META, MSFT, NFLX, ORLY, PYPL, REGN, SNPS, TMUS, TSLA, WDAY - 18 of 40 components. That is a material chunk of the index in a confirmed long-term bearish MA configuration.
2. Bearish MACD (20 of 40): AAPL, ADI, AMAT, AMD, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, ISRG, KLAC, LIN, LRCX, META, MRVL, MU, NVDA, PANW, QCOM, TMUS, TSLA, TXN . Note that every one of the nine semiconductors is on this list.
3. Overbought RSI - reversal risk: REGN (78.1), MSFT (74.5), PYPL (72.0) . REGN and MSFT in particular are extended; chasing here is poor risk/reward.
4. Closest to 52-week lows: TMUS (+4.3% above low 165.66) . TSLA (+4.6% above low 297.38) . SNPS (+6.2% above low 366.00) . META (+7.0% above low 520.26) . ISRG (+7.5% above low 328.57)
5. Semiconductor sector - zero breadth. All nine semis below both the 20 and 50-day EMA with bearish MACD. Historically the NAS100 does not sustain a rally while the semis are in this condition. This is the single biggest warning on the board.
6. Index below EMA20 and EMA50. Today's gain did not reclaim either. A rally that fails at the 20-day is a lower high, and lower highs are how corrections continue.




EVENTS CALENDAR - WEEK AHEAD
Monday 3 August - US ISM Manufacturing PMI. First read on the manufacturing cycle for July.
Tuesday 4 August - AMD reports after the close. Consensus around 1.61 USD EPS on roughly 11.3bn revenue. Given AMD is already below its 20 and 50-day EMAs with a MACD histogram of -9.00, this is the key semiconductor catalyst of the week. Booking Holdings (BKNG) also reports. Outside the index but relevant to tone: Caterpillar, Merck, McDonald's, Pfizer and Amgen.
Wednesday 5 August - ADP employment report and US ISM Services PMI.
During the week - Airbnb (ABNB) reports (after the close). Relevant to the long setup listed above.
Friday - US Department of Labor July employment report. The macro event of the week and the most likely source of a range break in either direction.
Confirm all earnings dates and times with your broker before sizing a position - schedules move.




SUMMARY
A 0.60% gain that flattered to deceive. The NAS100 rallied 333 points off the open and gave every one of them back, closing below both the 20 and 50-day EMAs for a fourth consecutive session. Breadth was a coin flip at 22/18. The bullish case rests on a collapsing VIX (15.99), a modest RSI divergence, and a narrowing MACD histogram. The bearish case rests on something much simpler: all nine semiconductors are broken, and the index has never sustained an advance without them.
The level that matters is 28,633. Above it on a closing basis and this becomes a base. Below it, 27,954 then 27,176 are the tests, and 26,715 (EMA200) is the line in the sand.
Methodology note: All component EMA classifications were verified programmatically against close price versus each of the 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs. 0 mismatches across all 40 symbols. Index EMA, RSI and MACD values computed from 501 daily bars.

Report: 31 July 2026 22:10 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Thursday 30 July 2026
Data: Close 30 Jul 2026 | NAS100: 28,106.35 | Change: +914.04 (+3.36%) | Range: 27,686.37-28,168.42



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 staged a violent one-day reversal, closing at 28,106.35, up 914.04 points (+3.36%) - the strongest session since June and a direct rejection of Wednesday's slide into correction territory. The index opened at 27,755.46, printed a low of 27,686.37 in the first hour, then trended higher all session to close at 28,106.35, just 62 points off the 28,168.42 high. Closing in the top 8% of the daily range is a genuine show of demand.

What drove it: Microsoft was the engine. MSFT +15.51% to 451.10 after Q4 revenue of $90.01bn beat the $87.62bn consensus and Azure grew 43% in constant currency versus 40.2% expected. The read-through hit AI infrastructure hard and fast: the semiconductor complex exploded, with MU +18.50%, LRCX +17.98%, AMAT +14.97%, AMD +13.00% and MRVL +12.18%. Working the other way, META -7.95% after missing EPS by $1.04 and guiding revenue softly with free cash flow down 91% year-on-year.

Macro backdrop: The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday 29 July. Thursday delivered Q2 advance GDP plus the June PCE print alongside weekly claims. The VIX collapsed from 20.66 to 17.09, a fall of -17.28%, unwinding almost all of the correction-day fear premium.

Bias: Neutral-to-cautious. This was a powerful bounce, but it is a bounce inside a downtrend - the index is still trading below both its 20 and 50-day EMAs and closed 6.5% below the 30,762 record high. Nothing in the trend structure has repaired yet. Compounding it, Apple and Amazon both report after the close tonight, which puts roughly 12% of index weight into an overnight gap.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100 daily): Close 28,106.35 | EMA20 28,670.72 | EMA50 28,787.36 | EMA200 26,716.68
Strict classification: Bear - below 20/50. Price is 564 points beneath the 20 EMA and 681 beneath the 50 EMA, but holds a commanding 1,390 points (5.2%) above the 200 EMA. The 20 EMA sits below the 50 EMA - a bearish short-term crossover that has not yet reversed.

Structure: Lower high at 30,044 (20-day high), lower low at 27,176 on Wednesday. Today reclaimed the entire prior session's loss and more, but did not take out the 29,192 ten-day high. Until 28,671 (EMA20) is recovered on a closing basis this is a countertrend rally within a corrective leg.

Phase: Corrective pullback within a longer-term uptrend. The 200 EMA at 26,717 remains the structural line in the sand - it has not been threatened.



MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 43.2 - recovered off Wednesday's sub-40 washout but still below the 50 midline. No bullish divergence at the Wednesday low; RSI made a lower low alongside price. Neutral, with headroom in both directions.

MACD: Line -437.06, Signal -279.60, Histogram -157.46 versus -205.70 yesterday. Still firmly bearish and below zero, but the histogram narrowed for the first time in the sequence. That is the earliest possible sign of momentum decay in the downtrend - it is not a crossover and should not be traded as one.

Volume: 1.748bn shares against a 20-day average of 1.353bn - relative volume 1.29x. Conviction behind the move was real, not a thin drift higher. MSFT alone traded 3.13x its normal volume.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance: R1 28,168 (today's high) . R2 28,671 (EMA20) . R3 28,787 (EMA50)
Support: S1 27,686 (today's low) . S2 27,176 (Wednesday low) . S3 26,717 (EMA200)

Classic pivots for Friday: S2 27,504.99 . S1 27,805.67 . P 27,987.04 . R1 28,287.72 . R2 28,469.09
Camarilla: S4 27,841.22 . S3 27,973.78 . S1 28,062.16 || R1 28,150.53 . R3 28,238.91 . R4 28,371.47
Round numbers: 28,000 (just below spot, first psychological support) . 28,500 . 29,000
Reference: 52-week high 30,762.20 . 52-week low 20,777.97 . ATR(14) 626.80



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Day % . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI zone . MACD . % from 52w high . POC

Mega-cap Tech - sector average +1.44%
AAPL 333.43 . -1.41% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.7 Strong . MACD Bull . -3.2% from 52w high . Above POC (+9.6%)
MSFT 451.10 . +15.51% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.8 Overbought . MACD Bull . -18.8% from 52w high . Above POC (+12.7%)
NVDA 195.04 . +2.65% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -17.5% from 52w high . Below POC (-6.8%)
AMZN 235.50 . +3.90% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.4 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.5% from 52w high . Below POC (-4.9%)
META 539.03 . -7.95% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -32.3% from 52w high . Below POC (-10.8%)
GOOGL 333.66 . -0.91% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -18.3% from 52w high . Below POC (-7.8%)
AVGO 387.84 . +4.72% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 50.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -21.6% from 52w high . Below POC (-3.6%)
TSLA 308.85 . +3.53% . Bear (below all) . RSI 30.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -38.1% from 52w high . Below POC (-22.4%)
NFLX 73.17 . -0.62% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 48.9 Neutral . MACD Bull . -42.3% from 52w high . Below POC (-6.0%)
CSCO 113.56 . +0.96% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.1 Neutral . MACD Bull . -12.9% from 52w high . Below POC (-1.4%)
TMUS 173.34 . -4.51% . Bear (below all) . RSI 41.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -33.7% from 52w high . Below POC (-5.9%)

Semiconductors - sector average +9.61%
AMD 485.39 . +13.00% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -17.0% from 52w high . Below POC (-0.5%)
QCOM 151.60 . -2.62% . Bear (below all) . RSI 30.5 Weak . MACD Bear . -41.7% from 52w high . Below POC (-26.2%)
TXN 278.76 . +2.80% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.3 Neutral . MACD Bear . -16.5% from 52w high . Below POC (-6.4%)
AMAT 501.77 . +14.97% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.4 Neutral . MACD Bear . -32.2% from 52w high . Below POC (-6.9%)
MU 874.40 . +18.50% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -30.3% from 52w high . Below POC (-5.1%)
LRCX 297.72 . +17.98% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -32.1% from 52w high . Below POC (-11.2%)
KLAC 180.33 . +5.96% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 37.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -41.3% from 52w high . Below POC (-17.7%)
ADI 366.67 . +3.68% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -17.8% from 52w high . Below POC (-8.9%)
MRVL 183.30 . +12.18% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.0 Neutral . MACD Bear . -44.4% from 52w high . Below POC (-27.2%)

Software / Cloud - sector average -1.23%
ADBE 247.90 . -5.90% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 58.8 Bullish . MACD Bull . -33.2% from 52w high . Above POC (+9.0%)
INTU 315.50 . -5.29% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 58.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -61.2% from 52w high . Above POC (+4.0%)
PANW 325.68 . +3.67% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 51.8 Bullish . MACD Bear . -11.7% from 52w high . Above POC (+14.5%)
SNPS 372.33 . -0.36% . Bear (below all) . RSI 30.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -42.9% from 52w high . Below POC (-18.3%)
CDNS 332.82 . +0.02% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -20.1% from 52w high . Below POC (-9.8%)
CRWD 185.22 . +3.26% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.8 Neutral . MACD Bear . -14.8% from 52w high . Above POC (+8.4%)
FTNT 154.25 . +0.67% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 51.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -9.5% from 52w high . Above POC (+9.8%)
WDAY 158.11 . -5.89% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 60.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -36.7% from 52w high . Above POC (+18.3%)

Consumer / Internet - sector average -1.21%
COST 954.17 . -2.04% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 52.2 Bullish . MACD Bull . -13.0% from 52w high . Below POC (-1.7%)
BKNG 193.24 . -4.00% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.4 Strong . MACD Bull . -16.6% from 52w high . Above POC (+12.3%)
MELI 1885.73 . +1.20% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.3 Strong . MACD Bear . -26.0% from 52w high . Above POC (+12.1%)
MAR 375.48 . -1.48% . Bull (above all) . RSI 50.6 Bullish . MACD Bull . -8.6% from 52w high . Above POC (+0.0%)
ABNB 152.08 . -0.61% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.8 Strong . MACD Bull . -2.8% from 52w high . Above POC (+8.4%)
DASH 197.53 . +2.07% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.2 Strong . MACD Bull . -30.8% from 52w high . Above POC (+15.9%)
PYPL 57.65 . -1.20% . Bull (above all) . RSI 74.4 Overbought . MACD Bull . -27.2% from 52w high . Above POC (+21.9%)
ORLY 87.36 . -3.61% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -19.6% from 52w high . Below POC (-1.5%)

Healthcare / Biotech - sector average +3.06%
ISRG 352.97 . -0.04% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -41.5% from 52w high . Below POC (-11.5%)
REGN 738.34 . +6.17% . Bull (above all) . RSI 74.5 Overbought . MACD Bull . -10.1% from 52w high . Above POC (+14.4%)

Industrial / Other - sector average +0.84%
LIN 508.64 . -0.49% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.9 Neutral . MACD Bear . -7.2% from 52w high . Below POC (-0.9%)
CEG 263.56 . +2.17% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.6 Bullish . MACD Bull . -36.1% from 52w high . Below POC (-1.6%)



SECTOR READ
Semiconductors +9.61% avg - the story of the day and, statistically, the strangest. All nine names ripped higher, yet every single one still closed below its 20 and 50-day EMA. MU +18.50, LRCX +17.98, AMAT +14.97, AMD +13.00, MRVL +12.18. Not one of the nine has a bullish MACD. This is a textbook oversold snapback in a broken group, not a trend reversal - the group needs follow-through above the 20 EMA before it can be treated as anything else.

Mega-cap Tech +1.44% avg - entirely dependent on MSFT. Strip it out and the group is negative. META collapsed 7.95%, AAPL slipped 1.41% and GOOGL 0.91% ahead of catalysts. Six of eleven names are in bear trend structure. Leadership here is now narrow and fragile.

Software / Cloud -1.23% avg - a rotation loser. ADBE -5.90, WDAY -5.89 and INTU -5.29 all gave back ground despite holding bullish EMA structure above their 20/50, suggesting profit-taking rather than distribution. PANW and CRWD rose but sit below their 20 EMAs.

Consumer / Internet -1.21% avg - the healthiest group on structure (six of eight in bull trend) but the weakest on the day. BKNG -4.00 after tagging 199.90, ORLY -3.61, COST -2.04. Money left the defensives to chase the AI trade.

Healthcare / Biotech +3.06% avg - REGN +6.17% on 1.86x volume is the cleanest chart in the index: above all three EMAs, RSI 74.5, MACD widening. ISRG remains broken, flat on the day and 41.5% off its high.

Industrial / Other +0.84% avg - CEG +2.17% recovering with the AI-power theme, LIN -0.49% quiet. Neither is a leadership candidate.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. MSFT - Long on pullback (highest conviction)
The only large-cap to reclaim all three EMAs in a single session, and it did it on 3.13x average volume with a 26-point range. Close 451.10 versus EMA20 395.61, EMA50 396.58 and EMA200 421.91 - trend now Bull (above all). RSI 71.8 is overbought, so chasing the close is poor risk. Gaps of this magnitude typically retest the lower half of the gap.
Entry: 438.00 . Stop: 421.00 . T1: 473.66 . T2: 488.63 . R:R: 2.1 / 3.0
Confluence: Entry sits on classic S1 436.13 and Camarilla S4 436.66. Stop is placed beneath both the EMA200 (421.91) and classic S2 (421.16) - a break there invalidates the gap entirely. Targets are R2 and R3. ATR 15.90, so the stop is roughly 1.1 ATR. Price now sits 12.7% above its 60-day POC of 400.42, confirming acceptance at higher value.

2. REGN - Long on breakout
Cleanest trend in the index. Close 738.34, above EMA20 670.90, EMA50 664.83 and EMA200 687.04. MACD 14.81 versus signal 9.16 and widening; RSI 74.5. Volume 1.86x. Closed 1.66 off the day high - a coiled close.
Entry: 741.00 . Stop: 721.40 . T1: 769.46 . T2: 798.92 . R:R: 1.5 / 2.9
Confluence: Trigger is above today's 740.00 high. Stop is one ATR (19.58) below entry and beneath Camarilla R1. Targets are classic R2 and R3. Sits 14.4% above POC 645.16 and only 10.1% from the 52-week high - the shallowest drawdown of any bull-trend name after AAPL and ABNB.

3. BKNG - Long on pullback
Fell 4.00% but the structure is intact: close 193.24 above EMA20 183.39, EMA50 177.82 and EMA200 183.31. RSI 60.4, MACD 4.90 versus signal 3.24 - still bullish. Today's drop was a rejection of 199.90, not a trend break.
Entry: 189.00 . Stop: 182.90 . T1: 199.90 . T2: 208.46 . R:R: 1.8 / 3.2
Confluence: Entry at classic S1 188.96. Stop sits just below the EMA20/EMA200 cluster at 183.31-183.39, which is the level that defines the trade. T1 is today's high, T2 is classic R3. Price is 12.3% above POC 172.02. ATR 7.34.

4. ABNB - Long on pullback
The strongest relative position in the entire index: just 2.8% from its 52-week high of 156.50, above all three EMAs, RSI 60.8, MACD 2.11 versus 1.59. It barely moved today (-0.61%) while the market ripped 3.36% - but in context that is consolidation at highs rather than weakness.
Entry: 149.60 . Stop: 145.80 . T1: 156.50 . T2: 161.00 . R:R: 1.8 / 3.0
Confluence: Entry at today's low, which also sits below Camarilla S4 150.63 - a flush entry. Stop beneath EMA20 146.09. T1 is the 52-week high; a clean break there has no overhead supply. ATR 4.45, so risk is under one ATR. 8.4% above POC 140.26.

5. META - Short on bounce
The clearest broken chart among the mega-caps. Close 539.03, below EMA20 606.93, EMA50 609.04 and EMA200 629.98 - Bear (below all). RSI 32.1, MACD -6.48 versus signal +4.38 with the histogram at -10.86 and widening. It sits just 3.6% above its 52-week low of 520.26 and 10.8% below POC 604.56, so there is no value shelf underneath. Volume 2.25x on the decline confirms distribution.
Entry: 549.00 . Stop: 561.00 . T1: 520.26 . T2: 513.66 . R:R: 2.4 / 2.9
Confluence: Entry at classic R2 549.86, stop above classic R3 559.83 - a level reclaim invalidates the short. T1 is the 52-week low, T2 is classic S3. ATR 25.63, so the 12-point stop is tight; size accordingly or widen to 565 and halve position size.



INTRADAY SETUPS FOR FRIDAY
All levels derived from today's close. Apple and Amazon report tonight - expect gaps and treat every level below as invalid if the open is outside the Camarilla S4-R4 band.

1. MSFT - Classic pivot bounce (long)
Direction: Long . Entry: 447.41 . Stop: 443.40 . T1: 453.51 . T2: 462.38 . R:R: 1.5 / 3.7
Buy the first test of the daily pivot at 447.41. Stop sits below Camarilla S3 443.88. T1 is Camarilla R1, T2 is classic R1. In a fresh post-earnings uptrend the pivot is usually defended by institutional flow on day two.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range (long)
Direction: Long . Entry: 193.46 . Stop: 191.85 . T1: 195.57 . T2: 196.62 . R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Close 195.04 sits inside the Camarilla band, which favours mean reversion. Buy S3 at 193.46, stop just under S4 191.89, which is also classic S1 191.96 and the EMA200 at 191.44 - a triple confluence floor. Only 0.99x volume today means NVDA did not participate; a catch-up bid is plausible.

3. AMD - Camarilla range (long)
Direction: Long . Entry: 474.25 . Stop: 463.00 . T1: 489.10 . T2: 496.53 . R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
After a 13% day expect a give-back into Camarilla S3 474.25. Stop beneath S4 463.10 and today's low of 457.68 is 1.4 ATR away - keep size small. The 60-day POC at 488.01 is directly overhead and will cap the first attempt. Note: AMD reports Q2 on 4 August, so this is a two-session trade at most.

4. GOOGL - Camarilla range (short)
Direction: Short . Entry: 335.36 . Stop: 337.10 . T1: 331.96 . T2: 330.27 . R:R: 2.0 / 2.9
GOOGL fell 0.91% on a day the index rose 3.36% - clear relative weakness. Trend is Bear (below 20/50) with close 333.66 under EMA20 343.64 and EMA50 351.33. Fade Camarilla R3, stop above R4 337.05, targets S3 and S4. Price is 7.8% below POC 362.00, so rallies are selling into supply.

5. TSLA - Camarilla range (short)
Direction: Short . Entry: 311.47 . Stop: 314.20 . T1: 306.23 . T2: 303.60 . R:R: 1.9 / 2.9
Weakest structure in the index: Bear (below all) with EMA20 354.55, EMA50 379.36 and EMA200 391.29 all stacked overhead, RSI 30.6, MACD -25.53 versus -17.06. It rose 3.53% today on just 0.87x volume - the lowest participation of any gainer. Sits 3.9% above its 52-week low of 297.38 and a full 22.4% below POC 397.79. Fade Camarilla R3, target S3 then S4.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD
Prev H/L = Thursday 30 July session high and low, i.e. Friday's reference range.

NAS100 INDEX - 28,106.35
Cam: S4 27,841.22 . S3 27,973.78 . S1 28,062.16 || R1 28,150.53 . R3 28,238.91 . R4 28,371.47
Classic: S3 27,323.62 . S2 27,504.99 . S1 27,805.67 . P 27,987.04 . R1 28,287.72 . R2 28,469.09 . R3 28,769.77
EMAs: 20 28,670.72 . 50 28,787.36 . 200 26,716.68 | Prev H/L 28,168.42 / 27,686.37 | 52w H/L 30,762.20 / 20,777.97

MSFT - 451.10 +15.51%
Cam: S4 436.66 . S3 443.88 . S1 448.69 || R1 453.51 . R3 458.32 . R4 465.54
Classic: S3 409.88 . S2 421.16 . S1 436.13 . P 447.41 . R1 462.38 . R2 473.66 . R3 488.63
EMAs: 20 395.61 . 50 396.58 . 200 421.91 | POC 400.42 | ATR 15.90 | Prev H/L 458.69 / 432.44 | 52w H/L 555.45 / 349.20

NVDA - 195.04 +2.65%
Cam: S4 191.89 . S3 193.46 . S1 194.51 || R1 195.57 . R3 196.62 . R4 198.19
Classic: S3 186.23 . S2 188.87 . S1 191.96 . P 194.60 . R1 197.69 . R2 200.33 . R3 203.42
EMAs: 20 202.12 . 50 203.55 . 200 191.44 | POC 209.29 | ATR 7.51 | Prev H/L 197.25 / 191.52 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

AAPL - 333.43 -1.41%
Cam: S4 330.59 . S3 332.01 . S1 332.96 || R1 333.90 . R3 334.85 . R4 336.27
Classic: S3 325.27 . S2 327.43 . S1 330.43 . P 332.59 . R1 335.59 . R2 337.75 . R3 340.75
EMAs: 20 324.09 . 50 309.94 . 200 278.76 | POC 304.29 | ATR 8.06 | Prev H/L 334.75 / 329.59 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 201.50

AMZN - 235.50 +3.90%
Cam: S4 230.68 . S3 233.09 . S1 234.70 || R1 236.30 . R3 237.91 . R4 240.32
Classic: S3 222.34 . S2 226.70 . S1 231.10 . P 235.46 . R1 239.86 . R2 244.22 . R3 248.62
EMAs: 20 239.61 . 50 243.21 . 200 235.53 | POC 247.67 | ATR 7.34 | Prev H/L 239.82 / 231.06 | 52w H/L 278.56 / 196.00

META - 539.03 -7.95%
Cam: S4 530.57 . S3 534.80 . S1 537.62 || R1 540.44 . R3 543.26 . R4 547.49
Classic: S3 513.66 . S2 519.08 . S1 529.05 . P 534.47 . R1 544.44 . R2 549.86 . R3 559.83
EMAs: 20 606.93 . 50 609.04 . 200 629.98 | POC 604.56 | ATR 25.63 | Prev H/L 539.88 / 524.49 | 52w H/L 796.25 / 520.26



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. The rally happened entirely below the trend. Twenty of the forty components closed in bear EMA structure and only twelve are in full bull alignment. Twenty-three of forty carry a bearish MACD. A 3.36% index day that leaves half the constituents broken is a short-covering signature, not accumulation.

2. Eighteen death crosses. EMA50 sits below EMA200 on ADBE, BKNG, CEG, COST, DASH, INTU, ISRG, MELI, META, MSFT, NFLX, ORLY, PYPL, REGN, SNPS, TMUS, TSLA and WDAY. Almost half the index has damaged intermediate structure - including MSFT, whose 50 EMA at 396.58 is still 25 points below its 200 EMA despite today's surge.

3. Overbought into event risk. MSFT RSI 71.8, REGN 74.5, PYPL 74.4. All three are extended, and MSFT in particular is 13.9% above its own 20 EMA. Mean reversion risk is elevated.

4. Four names at or near oversold with no divergence. QCOM 30.5, SNPS 30.6, TSLA 30.6, META 32.1. None printed a higher RSI low against a lower price low, so there is no bullish divergence to lean on - these are downtrends, not bases.

5. Six components sitting on their 52-week lows. SNPS +1.7% above its low, META +3.6%, TSLA +3.9%, TMUS +4.6%, ORLY +5.8%, ISRG +7.4%. A single risk-off session puts all six into new-low territory, which would badly damage index breadth.

6. Value rejection is widespread. Only fifteen of forty components closed above their 60-day POC. The semiconductor group is uniformly below - MRVL 27.2% below POC, QCOM 26.2%, SNPS 18.3%, KLAC 17.7%, LRCX 11.2%. Today's rally moved price, not value.

7. AAPL and AMZN report tonight. Roughly 12% of index weight is exposed to an overnight gap. AMZN is already Bear (below all) with MACD -3.63 versus -2.14 and traded 2.03x volume into the print. AAPL is the opposite - Bull (above all), RSI 61.7, only 3.2% off its 52-week high - meaning the bar is high and disappointment is asymmetric.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Tonight - Thursday 30 July, after the close
. AAPL Q3 FY26 results - focus on iPhone units, services growth, China, gross margin and Apple Intelligence monetisation
. AMZN Q2 2026 results (16:00 ET, ~30 minutes ahead of Apple) - focus on AWS growth versus the capex commitment

Friday 31 July
. University of Michigan final July consumer sentiment
. Non-index earnings: XOM, CVX, ABBV, ETN, ENB - relevant for broad risk tone rather than NAS100 directly
. First trading session reacting to the AAPL and AMZN prints

Already delivered this week
. Wed 29 July - FOMC held rates steady; QCOM reported after the close (stock -2.62% today, RSI 30.5, near 52-week low)
. Thu 30 July - Q2 advance GDP, June PCE (headline expected +3.7% y/y, core +3.3%), weekly jobless claims; MSFT and META reported

Next week - confirmed
. Tue 4 August - AMD Q2 2026 results after the close, 17:00 ET call. Options are pricing a roughly 12% move; today's 13% gain has already front-run part of the AI read-through, which raises the bar.



SUMMARY
A 914-point, 3.36% recovery day powered almost entirely by one earnings report and its read-through into semiconductors. The move was real - 1.29x volume, a close in the top 8% of the range, VIX down 17% - but it repaired none of the damage in the trend: the index remains below its 20 and 50-day EMAs, MACD is deeply negative, RSI is under 50, and half the constituents are in bear structure with eighteen death crosses on the board.

The actionable read is to respect the bounce without confusing it for a bottom. Longs belong in names with intact structure and real relative strength - MSFT, REGN, ABNB, BKNG - taken on pullbacks rather than chased. Shorts belong in the broken names on bounces into resistance - META, TSLA, GOOGL. The semiconductor rip is a trade, not a trend, until the group can close above its 20-day EMAs.

The index level that matters is 28,671, the 20 EMA. A close above it turns this from a bounce into a recovery. A failure back below 27,686 puts Wednesday's 27,176 low straight back in play. With Apple and Amazon reporting tonight, Friday will most likely resolve that question for us.



Report: 30 July 2026 22:15 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis - Wednesday 29 July 2026
Data: Close 29 Jul 2026 | NAS100: 27192.31 | Change: -570.82 (-2.06%) | Range: 27176.03-27954.91



Market Overview
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 27192.31, down 570.82 points (-2.06%), finishing at 27192.31 against a session low of 27176.03 - effectively on the low of the day. The index opened at 27780.46, tagged 27954.91 in the first hour and then sold off relentlessly for a 778.89-point range. That close puts the index 11.31% below its 2 June record close of 30660.60 and confirms a formal correction.

Three drivers did the damage. First, the Federal Reserve held the funds target at 3.50-3.75% but three regional presidents - Hammack, Kashkari and Logan - dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented in the same direction. Chair Warsh described it as a "family fight". Long-dated Treasury yields rose on the hawkish tilt. Second, the semiconductor liquidation deepened following Monday's reports of a Chinese breakthrough in chip-making technology - the SOX complex inside the index lost an average of 6.38% today. Third, oil firmed on renewed Middle East tension, tightening the inflation screw the dissenters were pointing at.

Underneath the headline there was a genuine rotation, not a liquidation. Money left semis and went into beaten-down enterprise software: INTU +6.43%, ADBE +5.72%, WDAY +5.21%. Breadth was 11 up / 28 down / 1 flat among the 40 names tracked.

Bias: Bearish below 27441 on the index while the semis remain in free-fall, but with a rotation bid alive in software and travel. After the bell META reported Q2 EPS of $6.18 against $7.14 expected and fell roughly 8% in extended trade - that is tomorrow's opening drag.



Trend Structure
EMA stack: EMA20 28730 | EMA50 28815 | EMA200 26675

Price at 27192 sits 1538 points below the EMA20 and 1623 below the EMA50, but still 517 points above the EMA200. Under strict classification that is Bear (below 20/50) - the medium-term uptrend is intact only by virtue of the 200-day, and the EMA20 has today crossed below the EMA50 at 28730 vs 28815 - the first bearish short-term cross since 12 February, and the bullish cross that replaced it on 15 April is now reversed.

Structure: a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 3 June intraday peak at 30762.20. Verified swing highs: 30762.20 (3 Jun), 30642.57 (22 Jun), 30328.79 (30 Jun), 29856.94 (10 Jul), 29192.29 (21 Jul), 27954.91 (today) - five successive lower highs in eight weeks. Today's close also broke the 27452 shelf left by the 30 April close.

Phase: Weinstein Stage 4 markdown on the daily, still Stage 2 on the weekly while 26675 holds. The 26662 pivot S2 and the EMA200 at 26675 form a single confluence band that is the line in the sand for the whole 2026 advance.



Momentum and Volume
RSI(14): 32.1 - down from 36.2 and 38.4 on the two prior sessions, a five-session slide from 48.1. Approaching but not yet at the sub-30 oversold threshold. There is no bullish divergence: each lower price low since 20 July has been matched by a lower RSI low, which is confirmation of the downtrend rather than exhaustion.

MACD: -445.9 vs signal -240.2, histogram -205.7 and widening from -168.9. Both lines below zero and diverging - momentum is accelerating lower, not decaying. This is not a setup for a durable low.

Volume: 1.60bn shares against a 20-session average of 1.33bn, roughly +20% above normal. Heavy, but distribution rather than capitulation - true washouts in this index have printed above 1.9bn.

ATR(14): 600 points - expect a 600-point handle on daily ranges. VIX 20.66, up 13.5% on the day but still short of the 22.22 three-month high, so the options market is not yet pricing panic.



Key Index Levels
Resistance: 27441 classic pivot (first reclaim needed) | 27706 R1 and today's broken shelf | 27955 session high | 28220 R2 | 28730-28815 EMA20/EMA50 band - the real ceiling
Support: 27176 session low | 26927 S1 | 26675 EMA200 | 26662 S2 - EMA200/S2 confluence | 26148 S3

Classic pivots for 30 July: S2 26662 - S1 26927 - P 27441 - R1 27706 - R2 28220
Round numbers in play: 27000 (psychological, 192 points below), 27500, 28000, and 26500 if the EMA200 fails.

A close back above 27441 neutralises the immediate downside. Losing 26662-26675 on a closing basis opens 26148 and turns the weekly structure bearish too.



Component Signals - All 40 Constituents
Mega-cap Tech
NFLX 73.63 +1.71% | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 50.3 Bullish | MACD Bull | -41.9% from 52wH | Below POC
GOOGL 336.71 +0.90% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.6 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.6% from 52wH | Below POC
COST 974.03 +0.77% | Bull (above all) | RSI 60.3 Strong | MACD Bull | -11.2% from 52wH | Above POC
AAPL 338.19 -0.56% | Bull (above all) | RSI 66.8 Strong | MACD Bull | -1.9% from 52wH | Above POC
MSFT 390.54 -0.71% | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 50.0 Bullish | MACD Bull | -29.7% from 52wH | Below POC
META 585.61 -1.31% | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.4 Weak | MACD Bear | -26.5% from 52wH | Below POC
AMZN 226.65 -1.82% | Bear (below all) | RSI 33.3 Bearish | MACD Bear | -18.6% from 52wH | Below POC
AVGO 370.35 -2.77% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.3 Weak | MACD Bear | -25.2% from 52wH | Below POC
TSLA 298.32 -2.97% | Bear (below all) | RSI 25.4 Oversold | MACD Bear | -40.2% from 52wH | Below POC
NVDA 190.01 -3.55% | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.0 Bearish | MACD Bear | -19.7% from 52wH | Below POC

Semiconductors
TXN 271.16 -2.13% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 38.2 Bearish | MACD Bear | -18.8% from 52wH | Below POC
ADI 353.65 -3.33% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 34.8 Bearish | MACD Bear | -20.7% from 52wH | Below POC
QCOM 155.68 -4.42% | Bear (below all) | RSI 32.3 Bearish | MACD Bear | -40.1% from 52wH | Below POC
AMD 429.56 -5.51% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 36.0 Bearish | MACD Bear | -26.5% from 52wH | Below POC
MRVL 163.4 -6.34% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 31.9 Bearish | MACD Bear | -50.5% from 52wH | Below POC
LRCX 252.35 -6.40% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 31.1 Bearish | MACD Bear | -42.5% from 52wH | Below POC
AMAT 436.45 -8.40% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 33.6 Bearish | MACD Bear | -41.0% from 52wH | Below POC
MU 737.91 -10.07% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 35.6 Bearish | MACD Bear | -41.2% from 52wH | Below POC
KLAC 170.19 -10.80% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 32.3 Bearish | MACD Bear | -44.6% from 52wH | Below POC

Software / Cloud
INTU 333.13 +6.43% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 68.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -59.1% from 52wH | Above POC
ADBE 263.43 +5.72% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 68.5 Strong | MACD Bull | -30.0% from 52wH | Above POC
WDAY 168.01 +5.21% | Bull (above all) | RSI 69.1 Strong | MACD Bull | -32.8% from 52wH | Above POC
FTNT 153.22 +2.16% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 50.1 Bullish | MACD Bear | -10.1% from 52wH | Above POC
CRWD 179.38 -1.33% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 44.5 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.5% from 52wH | Above POC
PANW 314.15 -1.52% | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 46.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -14.8% from 52wH | Above POC
SNPS 373.69 -2.64% | Bear (below all) | RSI 31.0 Bearish | MACD Bear | -42.7% from 52wH | Below POC
CSCO 112.48 -2.68% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.9 Weak | MACD Bear | -13.7% from 52wH | Below POC
CDNS 332.76 -3.47% | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.6 Bearish | MACD Bear | -20.1% from 52wH | Below POC

Consumer / Internet
BKNG 201.3 +1.00% | Bull (above all) | RSI 69.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -13.2% from 52wH | Above POC
PYPL 58.35 +0.05% | Bull (above all) | RSI 78.7 Overbought | MACD Bull | -26.3% from 52wH | Above POC
MELI 1863.31 +0.04% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 63.6 Strong | MACD Bear | -26.9% from 52wH | Above POC
ABNB 153.01 -0.07% | Bull (above all) | RSI 62.4 Strong | MACD Bull | -2.2% from 52wH | Above POC
TMUS 181.52 -0.48% | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.8 Weak | MACD Bear | -30.6% from 52wH | Below POC
ORLY 90.63 -0.59% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 56.6 Bullish | MACD Bull | -16.6% from 52wH | Above POC
MAR 381.12 -0.63% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.7 Bullish | MACD Bull | -7.3% from 52wH | Above POC
DASH 193.53 -1.02% | Bull (above all) | RSI 58.8 Bullish | MACD Bear | -32.2% from 52wH | Above POC

Healthcare / Biotech
REGN 695.42 +0.03% | Bull (above all) | RSI 65.1 Strong | MACD Bull | -15.3% from 52wH | Above POC
ISRG 353.1 -2.40% | Bear (below all) | RSI 39.9 Bearish | MACD Bear | -41.5% from 52wH | Below POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 511.17 0.00% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 46.7 Weak | MACD Bear | -6.8% from 52wH | Below POC
CEG 257.95 -0.72% | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.4 Weak | MACD Bull | -37.5% from 52wH | Below POC


Sector Grouping
Semiconductors: -6.38% average, average RSI 34, 9 of 9 bearish - total capitulation. Every single name is below its EMA20 and EMA50 and below its 60-day VWAP POC. KLAC -10.80%, MU -10.07%, AMAT -8.40%, LRCX -6.40%, MRVL -6.34%. Equipment names took the worst of it, consistent with a China process-technology story rather than a demand story. This sector alone accounts for the bulk of the index loss.

Software / Cloud: +0.88% average, average RSI 51 - the only green sector and the story of the day. INTU +6.43%, ADBE +5.72%, WDAY +5.21% on above-average volume (rv 1.34, 1.71, 1.60). These were the names most damaged by the "AI eats software" thesis earlier in the year - INTU is still 59.1% below its 52-week high - and the bid is a rotation out of hardware into installed-base AI monetisation. Security is more mixed: FTNT +2.16% on the day's heaviest relative volume (rv 2.27) but PANW -1.52% and CRWD -1.33%.

Consumer / Internet: -0.21% average, average RSI 62, 7 of 8 bullish - the strongest trend structure in the index. BKNG +1.00% with RSI 69.6, PYPL RSI 78.7, MELI, MAR, ABNB and DASH all above every EMA and above POC. Travel and payments are behaving as if there is no correction at all.

Mega-cap Tech: -1.03% average, average RSI 45, 6 of 10 bearish - split. AAPL is the standout, down only 0.56% and 1.9% off its 52-week high; COST, GOOGL and NFLX finished green. Against that NVDA -3.55% closed on its low and lost the EMA200, TSLA -2.97% printed a fresh 52-week low, and AMZN -1.82% is Bear-below-all going into tomorrow night's earnings.

Healthcare / Biotech: -1.19% average - REGN flat and Bull-above-all with RSI 65.1; ISRG -2.40% and Bear-below-all, 41.5% off its high.

Industrial / Other: -0.36% average - LIN unchanged but below EMA20/50; CEG -0.72%, Bear-below-all, 37.5% off its high though MACD has turned up.



Top Swing Setups
1. AAPL - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 344.60 · Stop: 336.00 · T1: 352.70 · T2: 361.50 · R:R: 2.0
The cleanest relative-strength name in the index: down only 0.56% on a -2.06% index day, Bull-above-all with EMA20 323.11 / EMA50 308.98 / EMA200 278.21 all stacked correctly, RSI 66.8 and MACD 9.61 above signal 8.44. Today's high of 344.57 IS the 52-week high, so a break is a break to new highs. Price is 11.5% above the 60-day POC of 303.39, which means value has migrated up with price rather than price extending away from value. Stop sits below today's low of 337.35 and below Camarilla S3 336.20; risk is 1.07 ATR. Reports fiscal Q3 tomorrow after the close - either take the trade before the print or wait for it.

2. INTU - Long on rotation breakout
Entry: 337.00 · Stop: 326.60 · T1: 351.30 · T2: 365.70 · R:R: 2.8
Best performer in the index at +6.43% on 1.34x relative volume, and the MACD has just crossed up (5.50 vs signal -0.75). Bull above EMA20 293.40 and EMA50 306.77 but still below EMA200 435.19 - this is a counter-trend recovery in a name 59.1% off its high, so treat it as a bounce trade with a hard stop, not a position. Price 9.6% above POC 303.85. Entry is above today's high of 336.94; stop is below the classic pivot 327.84 and Camarilla S3 326.67. Targets are R2 351.32 and R3 365.71.

3. WDAY - Long on pullback into pivot
Entry: 165.80 · Stop: 158.90 · T1: 172.60 · T2: 179.50 · R:R: 2.0
Up 5.21% on 1.60x volume with the full EMA stack aligned bullishly - EMA20 142.17 above EMA50 136.81, price 168.01 above all three including EMA200 160.72. RSI 69.1 is at the top of its range, so buying today's close is chasing; buying the first pullback to the 165.80 pivot is not. Price sits 26% above POC 133.07, the widest value gap of any long here, which is the main risk. Stop below today's low of 158.99. Targets R1 172.61 and R2 177.21, extended to 179.50.

4. MU - Short the bounce into pivot
Entry: 772.00 · Stop: 814.30 · T1: 703.30 · T2: 668.60 · R:R: 2.4
Down 10.07% and closed at 737.91, one tick off the 737.88 session low, on 1.43x volume. EMA20 920.57 and EMA50 896.25 sit 24.8% and 21.5% above price, POC 917.62 is 24.4% overhead and MACD -35.97 is far below signal -15.70. RSI 35.6 is not yet oversold. The trade is to sell strength, not to chase the hole: fade a bounce into the 772.53 classic pivot with a stop above R1 807.18. ATR is 84.62, so size accordingly - risk here is only 0.5 ATR. Targets are S1 703.26 and S2 668.61.

5. NVDA - Short on loss of EMA200
Entry: 189.90 · Stop: 195.00 · T1: 185.30 · T2: 180.60 · R:R: 1.8
Closed at 190.01, exactly on the session low, and closed below the EMA200 at 191.40 for the first time in this decline - Bear-below-all with EMA20 202.87 and EMA50 203.90 above. POC 209.34 is 10% overhead. RSI 38.0, MACD -1.72 below signal -0.41. Entry on a break of 190.00; stop above Camarilla R4 193.89 keeps risk to 0.68 ATR. Targets S2 185.30 and S3 180.60, with the 52-week low at 164.07 the extended objective if the semis keep unwinding.



Intraday Setups for 30 July
1. AAPL - Camarilla range long
Entry: 336.30 · Stop: 333.90 · T1: 338.85 · T2: 340.18 · R:R: 1.6
Close of 338.19 sits between Camarilla S1 337.53 and R1 338.85 - the textbook mean-reversion configuration. Buy the S3 test at 336.20-336.30, stop below S4 334.22, take profit at R1 then R3. Direction: long. Invalidated if price opens below S4.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range short
Entry: 191.90 · Stop: 194.10 · T1: 189.36 · T2: 188.07 · R:R: 1.7
Same range configuration but on the bear side, and any bounce runs straight into the lost EMA200 at 191.40 sitting on top of Camarilla R3 191.95. Sell that confluence, stop above R4 193.89, targets S1 189.36 and S3 188.07. Direction: short.

3. FTNT - Camarilla breakout long
Entry: 155.10 · Stop: 152.10 · T1: 157.55 · T2: 161.88 · R:R: 2.3
Heaviest relative volume in the whole index at 2.27x, up 2.16%, closed above POC 139.23 and above EMA50 144.37 and EMA200 111.28 with only the EMA20 at 154.76 still overhead. A push through 155.10 clears both today's high of 154.99 and Camarilla R1 154.25 and reclaims the EMA20 in one move. Stop at Camarilla S1 152.19. Targets R1 157.55 and R2 161.88.

4. MU - Camarilla range short
Entry: 766.00 · Stop: 795.50 · T1: 747.44 · T2: 728.38 · R:R: 1.3
For intraday traders wanting the semis short with a defined stop rather than the swing version above. Short the Camarilla R3 test at 766.49, stop above R4 795.07, targets R1 747.44 then S1 728.38. Wide levels because ATR is 84.62 - this needs a quarter of normal size.

5. ABNB - Camarilla breakout long
Entry: 155.80 · Stop: 152.50 · T1: 158.67 · T2: 160.84 · R:R: 1.5
Printed a fresh 52-week high at 156.50 today and still closed only 0.07% lower on a 2% index down day - that is real accumulation. Bull-above-all, RSI 62.4, price 9% above POC 140.12. Long above Camarilla R4 155.76, stop below Camarilla S1 152.55, targets classic R2 158.67 and R3 160.84.



Key Levels Dashboard - Top 5 by Weight
AAPL 338.19
Cam: S4 334.22 · S3 336.20 · S1 337.53 || R1 338.85 · R3 340.18 · R4 342.16
Classic: S3 328.28 · S2 332.82 · S1 335.50 · P 340.04 · R1 342.72 · R2 347.26 · R3 349.94
EMAs: 20 323.11 · 50 308.98 · 200 278.21 | POC 303.39 | Prev H/L 344.57 / 337.35 | 52w 344.57 / 201.50

MSFT 390.54
Cam: S4 383.66 · S3 387.10 · S1 389.39 || R1 391.69 · R3 393.98 · R4 397.42
Classic: S3 373.26 · S2 381.00 · S1 385.77 · P 393.51 · R1 398.28 · R2 406.02 · R3 410.79
EMAs: 20 389.77 · 50 394.35 · 200 421.61 | POC 398.39 | Prev H/L 401.25 / 388.74 | 52w 555.45 / 349.20

NVDA 190.01
Cam: S4 186.13 · S3 188.07 · S1 189.36 || R1 190.66 · R3 191.95 · R4 193.89
Classic: S3 180.60 · S2 185.30 · S1 187.66 · P 192.36 · R1 194.72 · R2 199.42 · R3 201.78
EMAs: 20 202.87 · 50 203.90 · 200 191.40 | POC 209.34 | Prev H/L 197.07 / 190.01 | 52w 236.54 / 164.07

AMZN 226.65
Cam: S4 222.99 · S3 224.82 · S1 226.04 || R1 227.26 · R3 228.48 · R4 230.31
Classic: S3 217.61 · S2 221.88 · S1 224.27 · P 228.54 · R1 230.93 · R2 235.20 · R3 237.59
EMAs: 20 240.04 · 50 243.53 · 200 235.53 | POC 248.45 | Prev H/L 232.82 / 226.16 | 52w 278.56 / 196.00

META 585.61
Cam: S4 575.85 · S3 580.73 · S1 583.98 || R1 587.24 · R3 590.49 · R4 595.37
Classic: S3 560.81 · S2 571.52 · S1 578.56 · P 589.27 · R1 596.31 · R2 607.02 · R3 614.06
EMAs: 20 614.08 · 50 611.90 · 200 630.90 | POC 607.41 | Prev H/L 599.97 / 582.22 | 52w 796.25 / 520.26
Note: META levels are pre-earnings. The stock fell around 8% after the close, so all of the above will gap.



Bearish Warnings
Death crosses (EMA50 below EMA200) - 18 of 40 names: MSFT, META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, REGN, SNPS, MELI, DASH, PYPL, ORLY, WDAY, CEG. Important distinction: for BKNG, DASH, WDAY, PYPL, REGN, ORLY and COST the cross is legacy damage and price has already reclaimed every EMA - those are recoveries. The genuinely broken ones are META, TSLA, TMUS, ISRG, SNPS and CEG, where the death cross sits under a price that is also below both the EMA20 and the EMA50. MSFT and NFLX are a halfway house - both are clinging to the EMA20 but below EMA50 and EMA200.

MSFT is the one to watch. It closed at 390.54, barely holding EMA20 389.77 but below EMA50 394.35 and 7.4% below EMA200 421.61, only 11.8% above its 52-week low of 349.20 and 29.7% off its high. The largest weight in the index carrying a confirmed death cross is a structural problem, not a dip.

Bearish MACD: 26 of 40 names - including every one of the nine semiconductors and both of NVDA and AMZN.

Fresh 52-week low: TSLA. It closed at 298.32, 0.3% above the 52-week low of 297.38 which it set today, with RSI 25.4 - the only genuinely oversold reading in the index. Bear-below-all with EMA20 359.36 / EMA50 382.24 / EMA200 392.12 stacked overhead and POC 398.86 fully 34% above price. Oversold is not a buy signal in a Stage 4 name.

Deep oversold cluster: LRCX 31.1, SNPS 31.0, MRVL 31.9, KLAC 32.3, QCOM 32.3, AMZN 33.3, AMAT 33.6, ADI 34.8, MU 35.6, AMD 36.0. Nine of these ten are semis or EDA. When a whole sector reaches this reading simultaneously the usual sequence is one more flush before a tradable low.

Momentum stalling at overbought: PYPL closed unchanged at 58.35 with RSI 78.7 - the highest reading in the index against a flat tape, which is how blow-off tops in laggard bounces begin. BKNG 69.6, WDAY 69.1, INTU 68.6 and ADBE 68.5 are all pressing resistance on one-day moves; none has confirmed a higher weekly high yet.

Furthest from the 52-week high: INTU -59.1%, MRVL -50.5%, KLAC -44.6%, SNPS -42.7%, LRCX -42.5%, NFLX -41.9%, ISRG -41.5%, MU -41.2%.

Universal below-POC condition in semis: all nine semiconductor names closed below their 60-day VWAP POC, several by more than 20%. Value has not moved down with price, which means every rally attempt runs into trapped supply.



Events Calendar
Already out - after tonight's close:
META Q2: EPS $6.18 vs $7.14 expected, revenue $60.8bn vs $60.2bn expected, revenue +28% year on year. The miss was driven by $2.4bn of legal contingencies and $1.2bn of severance. Q3 revenue guided to $61-64bn against a $63.1bn consensus midpoint. Shares fell roughly 8% in extended trade. MSFT also reported after the bell.

Thursday 30 July - economic data, 13:30 BST:
Q2 advance GDP · June PCE price index · June personal income and spending · weekly initial jobless claims. The PCE print is the important one given three FOMC members just voted to hike - a hot core PCE validates the dissenters and pressures the long end further.

Thursday 30 July - earnings after the US close:
AAPL fiscal Q3, consensus EPS around $1.86, call 22:00 BST · AMZN Q2, consensus EPS around $1.85, call 22:00 BST. Between them these two are roughly a sixth of the index. AAPL goes in from a position of strength at 1.9% off its high; AMZN goes in Bear-below-all and 18.6% off its high.

This week's Fed decision: funds target held at 3.50-3.75%. Dissents from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, all for a 25bp hike. Watch Fed speakers over the next fortnight for whether the dissent bloc widens.

Also on the tape: the Chinese chip-making technology reports that triggered Monday's semiconductor break are still unresolved - any confirmation or denial is the single biggest swing factor for the nine semi names above.



Summary
The index is in a confirmed correction, 11.31% off its record close, closing on the low of the day with a widening negative MACD and no RSI divergence to lean on. The EMA200 at 26675 stacked on classic S2 at 26662 is the level that decides whether this stays a correction or becomes something larger. Above 27441 the bears lose the immediate initiative.

The internals are more interesting than the headline. The semiconductor complex is unwinding hard while enterprise software, travel and payments are being accumulated on the same tape. That is rotation, and it means the tradable opportunities this week are long the rotation winners on pullbacks and short the semis into bounces - not blanket short exposure.

Report: 29 July 2026 22:10 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.