NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Thursday 17 September 2026
Data: Close 17 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,446.98 | Change: +501.92 (+1.73%) | Range: 29,305.90-29,494.95


MARKET OVERVIEW
The Nasdaq 100 snapped a three-session slide with its best day of the month, closing at 29,446.98, up +501.92 points (+1.73%). The index opened at 29,401.54, printed a session low of 29,305.90 in the first hour and ground higher all day to close at 29,446.98 - within 48 points of the 29,494.95 high, which is a strong close on the day.

The move came 24 hours after the FOMC delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, a unanimous 25bp move alongside language flagging a "timelier return" to the 2% inflation target. Equities took the initial hit on Wednesday (NDX closed 28,945.06) and then reversed hard on Thursday as the 10-year settled and volatility was crushed - VIX fell from 17.71 to 15.44, down 12.8% on the day, a classic post-event vol unwind.

Breadth inside the 40 tracked constituents was 29 advancers against 11 decliners, led by semiconductors and enterprise software. The gains were concentrated, however: AMD +6.36%, WDAY +6.14%, MU +5.50% and MRVL +4.81% did the heavy lifting, while the consumer and travel complex was flat to lower.

Bias: Cautiously bullish above 29,305. The index is back above all three key EMAs and the daily structure has reclaimed the mid-September range, but momentum indicators have not confirmed - see the MACD section below. Treat this as a relief rally within a two-week corrective phase until 29,550 is taken out on a closing basis.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (index): Close 29,446.98 | EMA20 29,275.00 | EMA50 29,204.93 | EMA200 27,469.53

The close sits above all three - EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 - and the stack is correctly aligned bullish (20 > 50 > 200). That is the single most important structural fact in today's tape: Wednesday's close at 28,945.06 was below both the 20 and 50 EMA, and Thursday recovered both in one session.

Structure: The index made a lower high on 11 Sep (29,473.12) and a lower low on 14-16 Sep (28,753.29 intraday). Today's close of 29,446.98 sits just under that 11 Sep high, so the short-term lower-high sequence is not yet broken. A daily close above 29,494.95 invalidates the corrective sequence and opens the path back toward the 29,650 area.

Phase: Corrective pullback within a primary uptrend. The index is 4.3% below its 52-week high of 30,762.20 and 28.9% above the 52-week low of 22,841.42. The EMA200 at 27,469.53 is 6.7% below spot - there is no structural damage to the long-term trend, only a two-week consolidation.


MOMENTUM AND VOLUME
RSI(14): 52.9 - neutral, back above the midline after dipping into the low 40s on 16 Sep. No divergence at the index level: the 14 Sep / 16 Sep price lows were accompanied by matching RSI lows, so this is a clean momentum reset rather than a failed thrust. Room to run in both directions; nothing here is stretched.

MACD: -28.42 vs signal +1.10, histogram -29.52 - still bearish (MACD below signal), but the histogram has improved sharply from -59.29 the prior day. That is a 50% contraction of negative momentum in a single session. If tomorrow closes above roughly 29,500 the lines will converge toward a bullish crossover early next week. Until the cross prints, momentum has not confirmed the price move.

Volume: Wednesday's FOMC session traded 9.97bn shares, the heaviest of the month. Today's tape was lighter. The rally is therefore a lower-volume recovery off a high-volume flush - constructive but not yet a demonstration of institutional accumulation. Watch for volume expansion on any move through 29,500.

ATR(14): 388.57 points - roughly 1.3% daily range. Size positions accordingly.


KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R3 / prior swing high: 29,655-29,715 (8 Sep high 29,655.73, classic R3 29,715.04)
R2 / breakout confirmation: 29,605 (classic R2 29,604.99)
R1 / immediate: 29,495-29,526 (today's high 29,494.95, classic R1 29,525.99) - the line in the sand

Support
S1 / first defence: 29,337 (classic S1 29,336.94, today's low 29,305.90)
S2 / EMA20 zone: 29,227-29,275 (classic S2 29,226.89, EMA20 29,275.00)
S3 / EMA50 and structure: 29,148-29,205 (classic S3 29,147.89, EMA50 29,204.93)

Classic pivots (from 17 Sep): S2 29,226.89 · S1 29,336.94 · P 29,415.94 · R1 29,525.99 · R2 29,604.99

Round numbers in play: 29,000 (major, defended twice this week) · 29,500 (immediate overhead) · 30,000 (psychological, 1.9% above) · 28,750 (16 Sep low, the bull/bear line)


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend column uses strict EMA classification: close measured against EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 individually. Verified programmatically - zero mismatches across all 40 symbols.

AAPL 337.00 (+1.38%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 65.4 Bull | MACD Bull | -2.2% vs 52wH | POC Above
MSFT 497.66 (+1.50%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.5 Bull | MACD Bear | -10.1% vs 52wH | POC Above
NVDA 219.34 (+2.54%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.7 Bull | MACD Bear | -7.3% vs 52wH | POC Above
AMZN 251.19 (+2.13%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.4 Bear | MACD Bear | -12.5% vs 52wH | POC Above
META 682.31 (+1.34%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 74.0 OB | MACD Bull | -13.7% vs 52wH | POC Above
GOOGL 347.33 (+1.30%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.4 Bull | MACD Bull | -15.0% vs 52wH | POC Above
AVGO 347.30 (+2.29%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.5 Bear | MACD Bear | -29.8% vs 52wH | POC Below
TSLA 366.20 (+2.27%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 54.8 Bull | MACD Bull | -26.6% vs 52wH | POC Above
COST 893.93 (+0.02%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 35.1 Bear | MACD Bear | -18.5% vs 52wH | POC Below
NFLX 75.31 (-1.44%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.1 Bear | MACD Bear | -39.7% vs 52wH | POC Above
AMD 545.09 (+6.36%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 62.8 Bull | MACD Bull | -6.8% vs 52wH | POC Above
ADBE 252.67 (+0.87%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 44.3 Bear | MACD Bear | -31.9% vs 52wH | POC Above
QCOM 188.71 (+2.09%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 67.9 Bull | MACD Bull | -27.4% vs 52wH | POC Above
TMUS 166.45 (-5.57%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 33.6 Bear | MACD Bear | -31.3% vs 52wH | POC Below
LIN 458.48 (-0.78%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 29.7 OS | MACD Bear | -16.4% vs 52wH | POC Below
ISRG 383.54 (+0.31%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 56.1 Bull | MACD Bull | -36.5% vs 52wH | POC Above
INTU 313.13 (-1.57%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.5 Bear | MACD Bear | -55.6% vs 52wH | POC Above
CSCO 110.24 (+2.32%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 47.7 Bear | MACD Bull | -15.4% vs 52wH | POC Below
TXN 258.14 (-0.97%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.0 Bear | MACD Bull | -22.7% vs 52wH | POC Below
AMAT 417.40 (+0.49%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 33.8 Bear | MACD Bear | -43.6% vs 52wH | POC Below
BKNG 170.52 (-0.51%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 29.1 OS | MACD Bear | -24.2% vs 52wH | POC Below
PANW 375.06 (-0.16%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 57.9 Bull | MACD Bull | -6.0% vs 52wH | POC Above
MU 977.50 (+5.50%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.8 Bull | MACD Bear | -22.1% vs 52wH | POC Above
LRCX 269.31 (+0.03%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 36.1 Bear | MACD Bear | -38.6% vs 52wH | POC Below
KLAC 168.98 (+0.97%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.5 Bear | MACD Bear | -45.0% vs 52wH | POC Below
ADI 362.65 (+0.17%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.8 Bear | MACD Bull | -18.7% vs 52wH | POC Below
REGN 789.45 (+1.92%) | Mixed (<20 >50 >200) | RSI 49.2 Bear | MACD Bear | -8.1% vs 52wH | POC Above
SNPS 381.17 (+0.71%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.3 Bear | MACD Bear | -29.3% vs 52wH | POC Below
CDNS 280.76 (+0.31%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 32.9 Bear | MACD Bear | -32.6% vs 52wH | POC Below
MELI 1825.21 (-0.79%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.6 Bear | MACD Bear | -28.4% vs 52wH | POC Below
CRWD 245.70 (+1.80%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 65.4 Bull | MACD Bull | -1.8% vs 52wH | POC Above
MAR 334.00 (-0.29%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 39.3 Bear | MACD Bull | -18.7% vs 52wH | POC Below
ABNB 165.93 (-0.94%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 39.9 Bear | MACD Bear | -14.2% vs 52wH | POC Below
MRVL 240.76 (+4.81%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 56.8 Bull | MACD Bull | -27.0% vs 52wH | POC Above
DASH 194.56 (-1.12%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 36.1 Bear | MACD Bear | -31.9% vs 52wH | POC Below
FTNT 172.58 (+0.47%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.3 Bull | MACD Bull | -2.0% vs 52wH | POC Above
CEG 262.80 (+1.26%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 40.7 Bear | MACD Bear | -36.3% vs 52wH | POC Below
WDAY 199.28 (+6.14%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 58.0 Bull | MACD Bear | -20.2% vs 52wH | POC Above
PYPL 52.94 (+0.44%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.0 Bear | MACD Bear | -33.2% vs 52wH | POC Below
ORLY 84.89 (+1.45%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 40.3 Bear | MACD Bear | -21.9% vs 52wH | POC Below


SECTOR GROUPING
Semiconductors (13) - avg +1.95% - LEADERS
NVDA, AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL, SNPS, CDNS
The strongest group by a wide margin and the engine of today's index move. But it is sharply bifurcated: logic and memory are bullish (NVDA, AMD, QCOM, MU, MRVL all above all three EMAs), while capital equipment is broken (AMAT -43.6% from its 52-week high, KLAC -45.0%, LRCX -38.6%, all below their POC). Five names above all EMAs, five below all. This is a stock-pickers' sector, not a beta trade.

Mega-cap Tech (5) - avg +1.53%
AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN
Four of five above all three EMAs and all five trading above their 60-day POC. AAPL is the standout at just -2.2% from its 52-week high with a bullish MACD. AMZN is the laggard, below its EMA20 and EMA50 though holding the 200. Healthy group, no distribution signature.

Software and Cloud (7) - avg +1.41%
ADBE, INTU, CRWD, PANW, FTNT, WDAY, CSCO
CRWD, PANW, FTNT and WDAY all above every EMA; CRWD and FTNT sit within 2% of 52-week highs. Offset by ADBE (-31.9% from high) and INTU (-55.6%), both below all three EMAs. Security software is the clear sub-theme.

Consumer and Internet (11) - avg -0.59% - LAGGARDS
TSLA, COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, PYPL, ORLY, TMUS
The only group down on the day and the only group with zero constituents above all three EMAs. TMUS collapsed -5.57% on 1.67x relative volume to sit 0.5% off its 52-week low. Travel (BKNG, MAR, ABNB) is uniformly below every EMA. Discretionary demand is where the tape is expressing its concern.

Healthcare and Biotech (2) - avg +1.12%
ISRG, REGN
ISRG above its EMA20 and EMA50 but below the 200. REGN is mixed - above the 50 and 200, below the 20 - with a bearish MACD. Small sample, neutral read.

Industrial and Other (2) - avg +0.24%
LIN, CEG
Both below all three EMAs and both below their POC. LIN is oversold at RSI 29.7. Power and industrial gas are not participating.


TOP SWING SETUPS
1. AMD - LONG on pullback (highest conviction)
Closed +6.36% at 545.09 on 1.55x relative volume - the strongest volume-confirmed move in the index. Above EMA20 (496.58), EMA50 (488.87) and EMA200 (384.64), above POC 504.89, RSI 62.8 with room, MACD 8.92 over signal 2.22 and widening. Only -6.8% from its 52-week high of 584.73.
Entry: 531.50 · Stop: 507.50 · T1: 565.19 · T2: 584.73 · R:R: 1.4 / 2.2
Confluence: Entry at classic S1 531.32 and Camarilla S4 531.99; stop below classic S3 507.50 and roughly 1.5 ATR (ATR 24.44). Targets at classic R2 and the 52-week high.

2. WDAY - LONG on pivot retest
Up +6.14% to 199.28 on 1.19x volume, above all three EMAs and trading 19% above its 60-day POC of 167.00 - the widest POC premium of any name on the list, which signals genuine repricing rather than noise. Caveat: MACD is still 3.81 vs signal 5.60 (bearish) so this is momentum leading the oscillator.
Entry: 194.65 · Stop: 185.50 · T1: 205.65 · T2: 212.02 · R:R: 1.2 / 1.9
Confluence: Entry at the classic pivot 194.63 and Camarilla S3 194.50; stop below classic S1 188.26 and the EMA20 at 190.91. Targets at classic R1 and R2.

3. CRWD - LONG breakout
Closed 245.70, just 1.8% from its 52-week high of 250.32 - which is also today's high. Above all three EMAs, 20% above POC 204.49, RSI 65.4, MACD 9.02 over 5.59. This is a clean coiled breakout candidate and the strongest chart in software.
Entry: 250.50 · Stop: 241.00 · T1: 260.20 · T2: 270.08 · R:R: 1.0 / 2.1
Confluence: Entry on a break of the 52-week high; stop below Camarilla S3 240.99; targets at classic R2 and R3. ATR 12.87 - do not chase an extended open.

4. QCOM - LONG on pullback
188.71, +2.09%, above a tight EMA cluster (EMA20 174.88, EMA50 173.73, EMA200 171.24) and 7.8% above POC 175.04. RSI 67.9 is the second-highest on the list and MACD 5.06 over 2.65 is expanding. Note it remains -27.4% from its 52-week high, so there is considerable overhead supply.
Entry: 187.00 · Stop: 180.50 · T1: 195.31 · T2: 203.00 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.5
Confluence: Entry at classic S1 187.01; stop below classic S3 182.86 and roughly 1 ATR (7.66). T1 at classic R3.

5. TMUS - SHORT on breakdown
Collapsed -5.57% to 166.45 on 1.67x relative volume, sitting just 0.5% above its 52-week low of 165.66. Below all three EMAs (179.45 / 181.23 / 193.93), below POC 180.30, MACD -1.50 under signal -0.30. RSI 33.6 is weak but not yet oversold, leaving room to fall.
Entry: 165.50 on a break of the 52-week low · Stop: 171.00 · T1: 159.38 · T2: 152.40 · R:R: 1.1 / 2.4
Confluence: Entry below 52-week low 165.66 and Camarilla S4 160.67 as the first magnet; stop above Camarilla R4 172.23 (ATR 5.36). Targets at classic S2 and S3.


INTRADAY SETUPS
1. AAPL - Pivot bounce LONG
The strongest mega-cap chart: above all three EMAs, RSI 65.4, MACD 5.20 over 3.51, only -2.2% from the 52-week high of 344.57. Classic pivot 335.17 and Camarilla S3 334.76 form a tight confluence shelf just under spot.
Direction: Long · Entry: 335.20 · Stop: 332.50 · T1: 337.75 · T2: 340.17 · R:R: 0.9 / 1.8
Reasoning: Buy the first tag of the pivot/Camarilla S3 confluence, stop below Camarilla S4 332.51, scale at Camarilla R1 and target classic R1. Invalid on any open below 332.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade
An unusually tight session (high 219.91, low 217.15 - just 1.3% range) against 128.9m average volume and the lowest relative volume on the list at 0.71. Compressed range plus low participation is textbook Camarilla range conditions.
Direction: Long at range low · Entry: 218.60 · Stop: 217.80 · T1: 219.59 · T2: 220.10 · R:R: 1.2 / 1.9
Reasoning: Long Camarilla S3 218.58, stop under Camarilla S4 217.82, targets Camarilla R1 then R3. Above all three EMAs so buy-the-dip is the correct side. Abandon the range play if the open gaps outside 217.15-219.91.

3. MU - Camarilla range LONG
977.50, +5.50%, above all three EMAs and 2.4% above POC 954.18. MACD 7.27 is marginally under signal 10.88 so momentum is flattening - this is a range trade, not a trend trade. ATR is 50.05, so the Camarilla band is wide enough to pay.
Direction: Long · Entry: 968.50 · Stop: 959.50 · T1: 980.50 · T2: 986.49 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Reasoning: Long Camarilla S3 968.51, stop below Camarilla S4 959.52, targets Camarilla R1 and R3. The EMA20 at 954.13 and POC at 954.18 form a hard floor just beneath - a break of 954 flips the bias and voids the setup.

4. LIN - Oversold Camarilla bounce
RSI 29.7 - the most oversold name in the index, down -0.78% to 458.48 on 1.19x volume. Below all three EMAs, so this is a counter-trend scalp only, not a swing. The Camarilla band is very tight (ATR 7.73 against a 7.26-point session range) which gives an excellent risk-to-target ratio.
Direction: Long (counter-trend) · Entry: 456.50 · Stop: 454.50 · T1: 459.81 · T2: 462.47 · R:R: 1.7 / 3.0
Reasoning: Long Camarilla S3 456.48, stop below Camarilla S4 454.49, targets Camarilla R2 and R4. Take T1 and reduce - the EMA20 at 473.98 is heavy overhead resistance and the trend is down.

5. BKNG - Oversold pivot reversal
RSI 29.1, the lowest reading on the list, closing at 170.52 against a classic pivot of 170.81 and Camarilla S1 of 170.05. Below all three EMAs and 24.2% from its 52-week high, so again counter-trend, but two-sigma oversold readings into a pivot shelf mean-revert more often than not.
Direction: Long (counter-trend) · Entry: 170.00 · Stop: 167.60 · T1: 171.94 · T2: 173.37 · R:R: 0.8 / 1.4
Reasoning: Long Camarilla S1 170.05, stop below Camarilla S4 167.67, targets Camarilla R3 and R4. Tight stop mandatory - MACD at -7.93 versus signal -4.83 is still diverging lower, so a failed bounce is a real risk.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 BY WEIGHT
NVDA - 219.34 (+2.54%)
Camarilla: S4 217.82 · S3 218.58 · S1 219.09 || R1 219.59 · R3 220.10 · R4 220.86
Classic: S3 214.93 · S2 216.04 · S1 217.69 · P 218.80 · R1 220.45 · R2 221.56 · R3 223.21
EMAs: EMA20 218.11 · EMA50 214.84 · EMA200 199.24 | POC(60d): 210.59
Day H/L: 219.91 / 217.15 | 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.27

AAPL - 337.00 (+1.38%)
Camarilla: S4 332.51 · S3 334.76 · S1 336.25 || R1 337.75 · R3 339.24 · R4 341.49
Classic: S3 323.85 · S2 327.01 · S1 332.01 · P 335.17 · R1 340.17 · R2 343.33 · R3 348.33
EMAs: EMA20 323.85 · EMA50 316.93 · EMA200 289.74 | POC(60d): 311.90
Day H/L: 338.34 / 330.18 | 52w H/L: 344.57 / 236.65

MSFT - 497.66 (+1.50%)
Camarilla: S4 493.10 · S3 495.38 · S1 496.90 || R1 498.42 · R3 499.94 · R4 502.23
Classic: S3 485.10 · S2 489.13 · S1 493.40 · P 497.43 · R1 501.70 · R2 505.73 · R3 510.00
EMAs: EMA20 493.21 · EMA50 470.17 · EMA200 442.90 | POC(60d): 432.79
Day H/L: 501.47 / 493.17 | 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20

META - 682.31 (+1.34%)
Camarilla: S4 673.43 · S3 677.87 · S1 680.83 || R1 683.79 · R3 686.75 · R4 691.19
Classic: S3 655.69 · S2 661.37 · S1 671.84 · P 677.52 · R1 687.99 · R2 693.67 · R3 704.14
EMAs: EMA20 625.95 · EMA50 608.45 · EMA200 621.20 | POC(60d): 602.97
Day H/L: 683.20 / 667.05 | 52w H/L: 790.80 / 520.26

AMD - 545.09 (+6.36%)
Camarilla: S4 531.99 · S3 538.54 · S1 542.91 || R1 547.27 · R3 551.64 · R4 558.19
Classic: S3 507.50 · S2 517.55 · S1 531.32 · P 541.37 · R1 555.14 · R2 565.19 · R3 578.96
EMAs: EMA20 496.58 · EMA50 488.87 · EMA200 384.64 | POC(60d): 504.89
Day H/L: 551.42 / 527.60 | 52w H/L: 584.73 / 149.85


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Momentum breadth contradicts the price move. Despite 29 of 40 constituents closing green, 25 of 40 still carry a bearish MACD - including MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, MU and WDAY, four of which finished among the day's leaders. Price is running ahead of momentum across the index. This is the single most important caution in today's data.

2. Seventeen names remain below all three EMAs. AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, INTU, AMAT, BKNG, KLAC, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, MAR, CEG, PYPL and ORLY are in confirmed downtrends on every timeframe. That is 42.5% of the tracked list in structural decline on a day the index gained 1.73%.

3. Names pressing 52-week lows. TMUS +0.5% above its low, ORLY +2.8%, SNPS +5.1%, COST +5.9%, CDNS +6.9%, CEG +14.9%. Fresh lows in a rising index is a distribution signature, not a healthy rotation.

4. Semi-cap equipment is severely damaged. AMAT -43.6% from its 52-week high, KLAC -45.0%, LRCX -38.6% - and all three sit far below their 60-day POC (AMAT 417.40 vs POC 545.48). The AI trade is being expressed in logic and memory only. If equipment does not follow, the semiconductor leadership narrows to a handful of names.

5. META overbought at RSI 74.0 - the only overbought reading on the list, and it is occurring 13.7% below the 52-week high of 790.80. Strong momentum into a lower high is exactly where relief rallies tend to stall. Watch 683.20 closely.

6. MELI momentum flip on the heaviest relative volume. MACD crossed from +13.18 signal to -5.61 while trading 2.02x average volume, the highest on the list, and the close of 1,825.21 is below EMA20, EMA50, EMA200 and POC simultaneously. That combination of volume and confirmation is a genuine institutional exit signal.

7. The index rally was lower-volume than the flush. Wednesday's FOMC session traded 9.97bn shares; today's recovery did not match it. Until volume expands through 29,500, treat the move as short-covering.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Friday 18 September 2026 - US economic data
08:30 ET - Initial Jobless Claims (prior 263k, distorted by Texas fraud-related filings - a clean print below 240k would be read as constructive)
08:30 ET - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
10:00 ET - Conference Board Leading Economic Index

The 08:30-10:00 ET stack is the first real test of the post-FOMC tape. A three-release cluster in that window tends to set the day's trend by the first hour, so intraday setups above should be sized with that in mind, or entered after 10:30 ET.

Just passed
Wednesday 16 September - FOMC raised rates 25bp, unanimous, first hike since July 2023. The Committee flagged a "timelier return" to the 2% target. This is the dominant macro variable for the remainder of the month and the reason the 10-year yield is the thing to watch, not the equity tape.

Earnings ahead among the 40
Wednesday 30 September - MU fiscal Q4 2026 results. Micron closed today at 977.50, up +5.50%, and remains 22.1% below its 52-week high of 1,255.00 despite an enormous year. This is the single largest scheduled event risk in the semiconductor complex over the next fortnight and it will move the whole memory group.

No other constituents from the tracked 40 have confirmed reporting dates inside the next two sessions. October earnings season begins in earnest in the second week of the month.

Fed speakers
Post-meeting blackout has lifted. Expect Committee members on the tape from Friday onward - any hawkish follow-through commentary is the most likely source of an intraday reversal.


Report: 17 September 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - WEDNESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2026
Data: Close 16 Sep 2026 | NAS100: circa 28,935 (essentially unchanged) | Change: approx -0.05% | Range: 28,899.43 - 29,142.80
Prior close (15 Sep): 28,937.84 | Component data: 40 of 40 NDX names, close 16 Sep 2026
Data note: the official NDX settlement print was not published at time of writing. The session range and prior close above are from Nasdaq Global Index Watch. Confirmed index closes: S&P 500 7,551.81 (-0.45%), Dow 51,461.90 (-1.21%), Nasdaq Composite 25,978.42 (-0.01%), VIX 17.71 (+2.97%). All component levels below are exact.



MARKET OVERVIEW
The Nasdaq 100 finished a Fed day almost exactly where it started, and that flat number hides a violent intraday reversal. The index was up around 0.7% into the afternoon, printing a session high of 29,142.80, before surrendering the entire move in the final two hours.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds target by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% - the first hike since July 2023, and unanimous. The dot plot was the real story: 12 of 18 participants placed 2026 policy at roughly 4.125%, implying one more hike this year, with four members penciling in 50bp more and only two seeing no further tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh used the press conference to promise a "timelier return" to 2% inflation and pointedly declined to submit a dot of his own.

Bond markets did the damage. The 10-year yield pushed back above 5%, the highest since 2007, with headline inflation running near 3.4% on the back of the Iran-related oil shock. Brent held above $107 and WTI near $104 even as Saudi Arabia routed cargoes via Oman to ease pipeline disruption.

Breadth across the whole US market was ugly - 60.8% of issues declining against 36.3% advancing. The Dow shed 1.21%, the Russell clung to a fractional gain, and the Nasdaq escaped roughly flat purely because a handful of large-cap tech names refused to break.

Bias: Cautious / neutral-to-bearish. The index level is flat but the internals are not. Until the 10-year backs away from 5%, rallies in this tape are distribution until proven otherwise.



TREND STRUCTURE
The index print is misleading, so the trend read is taken from the components, where the evidence is unambiguous.

Breadth of the 40 NDX names tracked:
Above 20 EMA: 11 of 40 (27.5%)
Above 50 EMA: 12 of 40 (30.0%)
Above 200 EMA: 21 of 40 (52.5%)
Above 60-day VWAP / POC: 17 of 40 (42.5%)
Advancers: 15 of 40 (37.5%)
MACD above signal: 14 of 40 (35.0%)

Strict EMA classification:
Bull (above all three EMAs): 8 - AAPL, META, AMD, QCOM, PANW, CRWD, MRVL, FTNT
Bull (above 20/50, below 200): 1 - ISRG
Bear (below all three EMAs): 17
Bear (below 20/50, above 200): 9
Mixed: 5 - MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA, REGN, WDAY

Structure: only 27.5% of the index sits above its own 20 EMA while the index itself is within 0.1% of the prior close. That is the signature of a small group of mega-caps holding the tape up while the median constituent bleeds. Twelve names carry RSI below 40 against a single name above 70.

Phase: distribution. Above the 200 EMA in aggregate (52.5%) but decisively below shorter-term averages - a market that has stopped trending up without yet confirming a downtrend.



INDICATORS
RSI(14) distribution: one name overbought (META 72.2), one oversold (BKNG 29.6), twelve below 40. The median constituent RSI sits in the mid-40s - weak, not washed out. There is no bullish divergence to lean on and no capitulation reading to fade.

MACD: 26 of 40 names have MACD below signal. Notable negative histograms: MELI (-17.67), REGN (-10.12), MU (-5.92), SNPS (-4.54), ADBE (-4.04), DASH (-4.03). Positive histogram leaders: META (+10.02), AMD (+4.86), CRWD (+2.93), QCOM (+2.40), PANW (+2.22).

Volume: relative volume was subdued across the board on a Fed day, which is itself a tell - no institutional accumulation in the bounce. Only eight names traded above their average: MELI 2.05x, ORLY 1.35x, TMUS 1.33x, AMD 1.24x, COST 1.06x, CSCO 1.05x, CEG 1.05x, AMZN 1.02x. The three heaviest-volume names (MELI, ORLY, TMUS) were all lower - selling had conviction, buying did not.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Computed from the 16 Sep session: H 29,142.80 / L 28,899.43 / C circa 28,935.

Resistance:
R1 29,142.80 - session high, first line in the sand
R2 29,300 - round number and the mid-September supply shelf
R3 29,441 - classic pivot R3 projection

Support:
S1 28,899.43 - session low, the level that defines tomorrow
S2 28,800 - round number, first real air pocket below
S3 28,711 - classic pivot S3 projection

Classic pivots (from session H/L/C):
S2 28,805 - S1 28,955 - P 29,013 - R1 29,198 - R2 29,292

Round numbers in play: 29,000 is the pivot the whole session will trade around. 28,800 and 29,200 bracket the expected range.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend = strict EMA classification (close vs 20/50/200 EMA). Every classification below was verified programmatically against the closing price - zero mismatches.


Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 332.41 +0.32% - Bull (above all) - RSI 62.1 Strong - MACD Bull - -3.5% from 52w high - Above POC
MSFT 490.30 -1.33% - Mixed (<20 >50 >200) - RSI 51.7 Bullish - MACD Bear - -11.5% from 52w high - Above POC
NVDA 213.90 +0.82% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 46.7 Neutral - MACD Bear - -9.6% from 52w high - Above POC
AMZN 245.96 -0.99% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 39.4 Weak - MACD Bear - -14.4% from 52w high - Below POC
META 673.31 +0.46% - Bull (above all) - RSI 72.2 Overbought - MACD Bull - -14.9% from 52w high - Above POC
GOOGL 342.87 -0.61% - Mixed (>20 <50 >200) - RSI 50 Bullish - MACD Bull - -16.1% from 52w high - Below POC
AVGO 339.51 +0.07% - Bear (below all) - RSI 32.5 Weak - MACD Bear - -31.4% from 52w high - Below POC
TSLA 358.08 +0.42% - Mixed (>20 <50 <200) - RSI 51.1 Bullish - MACD Bear - -28.2% from 52w high - Below POC

Semiconductors
AMD 512.50 +1.65% - Bull (above all) - RSI 56.1 Bullish - MACD Bull - -12.4% from 52w high - Above POC
QCOM 184.84 -1.58% - Bull (above all) - RSI 64.9 Strong - MACD Bull - -28.9% from 52w high - Above POC
TXN 260.67 -1.05% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 45 Neutral - MACD Bull - -22.0% from 52w high - Below POC
AMAT 415.38 -1.37% - Bear (below all) - RSI 33 Weak - MACD Bear - -43.8% from 52w high - Below POC
MU 926.55 -0.11% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 46.8 Neutral - MACD Bear - -26.2% from 52w high - Below POC
LRCX 269.23 -0.61% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 36 Weak - MACD Bear - -38.6% from 52w high - Below POC
KLAC 167.36 -0.39% - Bear (below all) - RSI 36.9 Weak - MACD Bear - -45.6% from 52w high - Below POC
ADI 362.04 +0.19% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 45.3 Neutral - MACD Bull - -18.8% from 52w high - Below POC
MRVL 229.71 +3.61% - Bull (above all) - RSI 52.7 Bullish - MACD Bull - -30.4% from 52w high - Above POC

Software / Cloud
ADBE 250.50 -2.82% - Bear (below all) - RSI 42.9 Neutral - MACD Bear - -32.5% from 52w high - Above POC
INTU 318.13 -3.38% - Bear (below all) - RSI 43.4 Neutral - MACD Bear - -54.9% from 52w high - Above POC
PANW 375.65 +0.15% - Bull (above all) - RSI 58.2 Bullish - MACD Bull - -5.8% from 52w high - Above POC
SNPS 378.47 +2.93% - Bear (below all) - RSI 40 Neutral - MACD Bear - -29.8% from 52w high - Below POC
CDNS 279.90 +2.17% - Bear (below all) - RSI 32.2 Weak - MACD Bear - -32.8% from 52w high - Below POC
CRWD 241.36 -0.47% - Bull (above all) - RSI 63.9 Strong - MACD Bull - -1.6% from 52w high - Above POC
FTNT 171.77 -0.35% - Bull (above all) - RSI 60.7 Strong - MACD Bull - -1.6% from 52w high - Above POC
WDAY 187.76 -1.53% - Mixed (<20 >50 >200) - RSI 50.4 Bullish - MACD Bear - -24.9% from 52w high - Above POC

Consumer / Internet
NFLX 76.41 -1.96% - Bear (below all) - RSI 45.6 Neutral - MACD Bear - -38.8% from 52w high - Above POC
COST 893.74 -0.84% - Bear (below all) - RSI 35 Weak - MACD Bear - -18.5% from 52w high - Below POC
BKNG 171.40 +0.05% - Bear (below all) - RSI 29.6 Oversold - MACD Bear - -23.8% from 52w high - Below POC
MELI 1,839.71 +0.59% - Bear (below all) - RSI 43 Neutral - MACD Bear - -27.8% from 52w high - Below POC
MAR 334.97 -0.67% - Bear (below all) - RSI 40 Neutral - MACD Bull - -18.5% from 52w high - Below POC
ABNB 167.51 -0.48% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 41.5 Neutral - MACD Bear - -13.4% from 52w high - Above POC
DASH 196.76 -0.76% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 37.6 Weak - MACD Bear - -31.1% from 52w high - Below POC
PYPL 52.71 -2.04% - Bear (below all) - RSI 40 Neutral - MACD Bear - -33.5% from 52w high - Below POC
ORLY 83.68 -1.74% - Bear (below all) - RSI 34.9 Weak - MACD Bear - -23.0% from 52w high - Below POC

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG 382.37 +1.38% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 55.4 Bullish - MACD Bull - -36.7% from 52w high - Above POC
REGN 774.61 +0.06% - Mixed (<20 >50 >200) - RSI 44.3 Neutral - MACD Bear - -9.9% from 52w high - Above POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 462.09 -0.19% - Bear (below all) - RSI 31.9 Weak - MACD Bear - -15.7% from 52w high - Below POC
CSCO 107.74 -2.12% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 41.1 Neutral - MACD Bull - -17.4% from 52w high - Below POC
TMUS 176.26 -2.33% - Bear (below all) - RSI 43.2 Neutral - MACD Bear - -27.3% from 52w high - Below POC
CEG 259.53 -0.14% - Bear (below all) - RSI 37.9 Weak - MACD Bear - -37.1% from 52w high - Below POC



SECTOR READ
Mega-cap Tech avg -0.11% - avg RSI 50.7, 2 of 8 fully bullish. AAPL and META are carrying the group; MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL all lost ground. This is the entire reason the index closed flat.

Semiconductors avg +0.11% - avg RSI 45.1, 3 of 9 fully bullish. Genuinely two-speed: MRVL +3.61% and AMD +1.65% against AMAT, LRCX and KLAC all sitting 38-46% below their 52-week highs. The Intel/SK Hynix memory story stole attention from the incumbents.

Software / Cloud avg -0.51% - avg RSI 49.3. The most polarised group on the board. Security (PANW, CRWD, FTNT) is at or near 52-week highs; design and productivity software (SNPS, CDNS, ADBE, INTU) is near 52-week lows. INTU -3.38% and ADBE -2.82% were the worst two names in the index.

Consumer / Internet avg -0.77% - avg RSI 39.8, zero of 9 fully bullish, 7 below all three EMAs. The weakest sector in the index and the clearest expression of the rates-and-oil squeeze on the consumer.

Healthcare / Biotech avg +0.72% - ISRG +1.38% reclaimed its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains 36.7% off its high. REGN flat with a heavily negative MACD histogram.

Industrial / Other avg -1.20% - avg RSI 38.5, the worst average change on the board. TMUS -2.33% on 1.33x volume and CSCO -2.12% both broke down; LIN RSI 31.9.



TOP SWING SETUPS
All stops are ATR-derived. Levels are exact closing-data values, not estimates.


1. FTNT - Long, 52-week high breakout
Entry: 175.15 · Stop: 168.40 · T1: 182.20 · T2: 189.20 · R:R: 1.04 to T1, 2.08 to T2
Risk: 6.75 pts = 0.96x ATR(7.04)
Confluence: Above all three EMAs (20 EMA 161.92, 50 EMA 156.77, 200 EMA 125.52) in a perfect bullish stack. RSI 60.7 with MACD above signal. Close 171.77 is just 1.6% under the 52-week high of 174.61, which is also today's high - the stock is coiling directly beneath resistance rather than rejecting it. Stop sits under today's low (168.52) and Camarilla S4 (168.42).
POC context: Trading 8.4% above the 60-day VWAP at 158.50 - extended, so size accordingly, but the POC is rising and has not been revisited.

2. CRWD - Long, breakout to new 52-week high
Entry: 245.70 · Stop: 233.50 · T1: 258.20 · T2: 270.70 · R:R: 1.02 to T1, 2.05 to T2
Risk: 12.20 pts = 0.97x ATR(12.54)
Confluence: Closed 241.36, only 1.6% below the 52-week high of 245.19 - which is today's high. Above all three EMAs (216.54 / 203.85 / 160.21), RSI 63.9, MACD histogram +2.93. One of only eight names in the entire index in a clean bullish configuration. Stop below today's low of 235.65.
POC context: Well above the 203.14 POC. The 20 EMA at 216.54 is the level to watch if the breakout fails.

3. AMD - Long on pullback to POC / 20 EMA confluence
Entry: 505.00 · Stop: 488.00 · T1: 527.25 · T2: 545.68 · R:R: 1.31 to T1, 2.39 to T2
Risk: 17.00 pts = 0.73x ATR(23.32)
Confluence: Best conviction signal on the board today: +1.65% on 1.24x relative volume, the highest volume among the leadership names. Above all three EMAs, MACD histogram +4.86. Today's range 506.05-527.25 was wide and closed mid-range, so waiting for the retest is the discipline. Stop below the 20 EMA at 491.47.
POC context: The 60-day VWAP sits at 504.47, almost exactly on the 20 EMA (491.47) and today's low (506.05) zone - a genuine three-way confluence. T2 is classic pivot R3.

4. PANW - Long, continuation above session high
Entry: 382.20 · Stop: 366.00 · T1: 398.88 · T2: 415.00 · R:R: 1.03 to T1, 2.02 to T2
Risk: 16.20 pts = 0.87x ATR(18.71)
Confluence: Above all three EMAs (354.76 / 342.36 / 267.58), RSI 58.2, MACD histogram +2.22. Held green on a day 25 of 40 index names fell. Entry above today's high of 381.96. Stop under today's low (367.30) and Camarilla S4 (367.59). T1 is the 52-week high at 398.88.
POC context: Trading 8.9% above the 345.02 POC - a strongly trending profile, not a mean-reversion one.

5. AVGO - Short, breakdown from bear stack
Entry: 335.60 · Stop: 344.20 · T1: 327.16 · T2: 315.00 · R:R: 0.98 to T1, 2.40 to T2
Risk: 8.60 pts = 0.72x ATR(11.96)
Confluence: Below all three EMAs with a fully bearish sequence (20 EMA 362.69 below 50 EMA 375.62). RSI 32.5 and falling, MACD below signal. 31.4% below its 52-week high of 495.00 with no bounce attempt on the day (+0.07% is noise). Entry below today's low of 335.81; stop above today's high of 344.15. T1 is classic pivot S3.
POC context: Trading 10.0% below the 377.30 POC and showing no attempt to reclaim it - value has decisively migrated lower.



INTRADAY SETUPS - THURSDAY 17 SEPTEMBER
Camarilla and classic pivot levels calculated from the 16 Sep session H/L/C. Type is stated for each.


1. AAPL - Camarilla range (mean reversion)
Direction: Long · Entry: 331.10 · Stop: 329.70 · T1: 332.86 · T2: 333.72 · R:R: 1.87 to T2
Levels: Cam: S4 329.78 · S3 331.10 · S1 331.97 || R1 332.85 · R3 333.72 · R4 335.04
Reasoning: Textbook Camarilla range day setup: the close of 332.41 sits inside the S3-R3 band (331.10-333.72), which statistically favours fading the extremes rather than chasing. Buy the S3 touch at 331.10, stop just below S4 at 329.78, target the classic pivot at 332.86 then Cam R3 at 333.72. AAPL is above all three EMAs with RSI 62.1 and is the index's strongest large-cap anchor, so the long side of the range is the higher-probability leg. Abandon the range thesis on a clean break of S4.

2. QCOM - Camarilla S3 pullback (trend continuation)
Direction: Long · Entry: 182.66 · Stop: 180.30 · T1: 186.50 · T2: 189.62 · R:R: 2.95 to T2
Levels: Cam: S4 180.49 · S3 182.66 · S1 184.11 || R1 185.57 · R3 187.02 · R4 189.19
Reasoning: QCOM printed 191.28 intraday then gave back 1.58% to close 184.84 - a pullback inside an uptrend, not a breakdown. It remains above all three EMAs (173.42 / 173.11 / 171.07) with RSI 64.9 and a +2.40 MACD histogram. Buy the Cam S3 test at 182.66, stop under Cam S4 at 180.49, target the classic pivot 186.50 then classic R1 189.62. Best risk-reward on the intraday board.

3. META - Camarilla R3 breakout
Direction: Long · Entry: 677.00 · Stop: 669.63 · T1: 680.68 · T2: 690.24 · R:R: 1.80 to T2
Levels: Cam: S4 665.94 · S3 669.63 · S1 672.08 || R1 674.54 · R3 677.00 · R4 680.68
Reasoning: Close 673.31 sits between Cam R1 and R3. A clean push through Cam R3 at 677.00 triggers the standard Camarilla breakout, targeting R4 at 680.68 then classic pivot R2 at 690.24. META is above all three EMAs with the largest positive MACD histogram in the index (+10.02). Caveat: RSI 72.2 is the only overbought reading on the board and the 50 EMA (605.44) is still below the 200 EMA (620.58), so this is a momentum trade, not a structural one. Stop at Cam S3.

4. MSFT - Camarilla S3 breakdown
Direction: Short · Entry: 487.90 · Stop: 491.30 · T1: 486.36 · T2: 482.43 · R:R: 1.61 to T2
Levels: Cam: S4 485.49 · S3 487.90 · S1 489.50 || R1 491.10 · R3 492.70 · R4 495.11
Reasoning: MSFT lost 1.33% and closed at 490.30, back below its 20 EMA at 492.74 - the first close under it in the current leg. Mixed EMA structure (below 20, above 50 and 200), MACD histogram -3.48. A break of Cam S3 at 487.90 opens classic S1 at 486.36 then S2 at 482.43. Stop just above the classic pivot at 491.17. Invalidated on any reclaim of the 20 EMA.

5. NVDA - Camarilla S3 bounce (counter-trend, tight)
Direction: Long · Entry: 212.73 · Stop: 211.40 · T1: 214.39 · T2: 215.07 · R:R: 1.76 to T2
Levels: Cam: S4 211.56 · S3 212.73 · S1 213.51 || R1 214.29 · R3 215.07 · R4 216.24
Reasoning: NVDA closed +0.82% at 213.90 but is still below both the 20 EMA (217.98) and 50 EMA (214.66) - a bear-below-20/50 structure with RSI 46.7. This is a scalp, not a swing. Buy the Cam S3 test at 212.73, stop under Cam S4 at 211.56, target the classic pivot 214.39 then Cam R3 215.07. Keep it small: the 60-day VWAP at 210.31 is the line that matters, and a loss of it changes the character of the whole semiconductor complex.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS

AAPL - close 332.41
Cam: S4 329.78 · S3 331.10 · S1 331.97 || R1 332.85 · R3 333.72 · R4 335.04
Classic: S3 325.47 · S2 328.08 · S1 330.25 · P 332.86 · R1 335.03 · R2 337.64 · R3 339.81
EMAs: 20 322.46 · 50 316.11 · 200 289.27 · POC 311.39
Prev H/L: 335.48 / 330.70 · 52w H/L: 344.57 / 236.32 · ATR(14) 7.35

MSFT - close 490.30
Cam: S4 485.49 · S3 487.90 · S1 489.50 || R1 491.10 · R3 492.70 · R4 495.11
Classic: S3 477.62 · S2 482.43 · S1 486.36 · P 491.17 · R1 495.10 · R2 499.91 · R3 503.84
EMAs: 20 492.74 · 50 469.04 · 200 442.35 · POC 431.07
Prev H/L: 495.97 / 487.23 · 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 · ATR(14) 10.82

NVDA - close 213.90
Cam: S4 211.56 · S3 212.73 · S1 213.51 || R1 214.29 · R3 215.07 · R4 216.24
Classic: S3 207.75 · S2 210.13 · S1 212.01 · P 214.39 · R1 216.27 · R2 218.65 · R3 220.53
EMAs: 20 217.98 · 50 214.66 · 200 199.04 · POC 210.31
Prev H/L: 216.76 / 212.50 · 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.27 · ATR(14) 6.6

AMZN - close 245.96
Cam: S4 243.23 · S3 244.60 · S1 245.51 || R1 246.41 · R3 247.32 · R4 248.69
Classic: S3 238.79 · S2 241.55 · S1 243.75 · P 246.51 · R1 248.71 · R2 251.47 · R3 253.67
EMAs: 20 255.62 · 50 255.23 · 200 242.90 · POC 250.62
Prev H/L: 249.26 / 244.30 · 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 · ATR(14) 6.13

META - close 673.31
Cam: S4 665.94 · S3 669.63 · S1 672.08 || R1 674.54 · R3 677.00 · R4 680.68
Classic: S3 654.98 · S2 663.44 · S1 668.38 · P 676.84 · R1 681.78 · R2 690.24 · R3 695.18
EMAs: 20 620.02 · 50 605.44 · 200 620.58 · POC 601.48
Prev H/L: 685.31 / 671.91 · 52w H/L: 790.80 / 520.26 · ATR(14) 20.95



BEARISH WARNINGS
Full bearish EMA stacks (20 EMA below 50 EMA below 200 EMA): seven names - TSLA, COST, TMUS, ISRG, SNPS, CDNS, ORLY. This is the death-cross condition in its completed form and each one needs a base, not a dip-buy.

Within 7% of 52-week lows:
ORLY 83.68 - just 1.3% above its 82.59 low, RSI 34.9, full bear stack, and traded 1.35x volume lower. The weakest chart in the index.
SNPS 378.47 - 4.4% above its 362.55 low despite closing +2.93%. A bounce inside a downtrend with a -4.54 MACD histogram is not a reversal.
COST 893.74 - 5.9% above its 844.06 low, RSI 35.0, below all three EMAs on 1.06x volume.
TMUS 176.26 - 6.4% above its 165.66 low, -2.33% on 1.33x volume - the heaviest conviction selling of the day.
CDNS 279.90 - 6.5% above its 262.75 low, RSI 32.2, closed +2.17% but into a 302.16 20 EMA that is 8% overhead.

Oversold but not buyable: BKNG RSI 29.6, below all three EMAs, MACD histogram -3.51, 23.8% off its high. Oversold in a downtrend usually means more downside, not a floor.

Deepest drawdowns from 52-week highs: INTU -54.9%, KLAC -45.6%, AMAT -43.8%, NFLX -38.8%, LRCX -38.6%, CEG -37.1%, ISRG -36.7%. Semi-cap equipment as a bloc is in a bear market regardless of what the index prints.

Momentum divergence to watch: META is the sole overbought name (RSI 72.2) and is doing a disproportionate share of the index's lifting, but its 50 EMA (605.44) still sits below its 200 EMA (620.58). Leadership resting on one stretched stock is fragile leadership.

Structural: 26 of 40 names have MACD below signal and only 11 hold their 20 EMA. If AAPL, META and the security software trio roll over, there is nothing underneath the index.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Thursday 17 September
Initial jobless claims, 13:30 UK - the first labour-market read since the hike, and the one the bond market will trade
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, 13:30 UK - third-Thursday regional print, a useful early read on September activity
Check your own calendar for the exact flash PMI and leading-indicator timings this month - they are not confirmed here and I would rather leave a gap than post a wrong time

Friday 18 September
Quadruple witching - index and single-stock futures and options expiry. Expect distorted volume and pinning around round numbers; 29,000 on the index is the obvious magnet.

Ongoing
Fed speakers return from blackout - every remark will be parsed for whether the October or December meeting carries the projected second hike
10-year Treasury yield either side of 5% remains the single most important input for this index
Iran conflict and Saudi pipeline repair timeline continue to drive the oil-inflation channel

Earnings among the 40
MU (Micron) - Wednesday 30 September, after the close. Confirmed by the company. The only NDX-40 constituent with a scheduled report in the next two weeks. MU closed 926.55, below its 20 EMA (951.67) and its 957.03 POC, with a -5.92 MACD histogram and a 49.31 ATR - position sizing into that print needs to respect a roughly 5% daily range.
No other constituent in this list has a confirmed report before 30 September; the bulk of the index reports from late October.



Report: 16 September 2026 21:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Tuesday 15 September 2026
Data: Component scan = close Tue 15 Sep 2026 | NAS100 (NDX): 29,127.16 | Change: -241.28 (-0.82%) | Range: 28,867.67 - 29,285.50
Note: the figures above are the last officially published NDX cash close (Mon 14 Sep). At the time of writing Nasdaq, FRED and Yahoo had not yet published the 15 Sep NDX index close. All 40 component levels, pivots and Camarilla levels below ARE Tuesday 15 September closing data. Index proxy for 15 Sep: Nasdaq Composite -0.78% at 25,981.57, S&P 500 -0.45% at 7,585.73, Dow -0.63% at 52,093.11.



MARKET OVERVIEW
A second straight risk-off session for large-cap tech. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed as high as 5.02% intraday - its highest since 2007 - while Brent crude held above $107 and WTI above $104 after further Gulf supply disruption. That combination of higher discount rates and higher input costs is exactly the wrong mix for long-duration growth equities.
Beneath the index level the tape was two-sided rather than uniformly weak. Semiconductors actually finished as the best group (+0.66% average) as Monday's AI-safety-driven selling was partially unwound - QCOM +4.25%, AMD +2.19%, CRWD +3.02%. The damage was concentrated in consumer, internet and travel names (average -1.81%), which are the most yield- and oil-sensitive cohort in the index.
Bias: Cautious / neutral-to-bearish into the event. Breadth is poor, but the leadership that remains is genuine. The Fed decision at 19:00 UK on Wednesday is the binary that resolves it.



TREND STRUCTURE
Component EMA alignment (close vs 20 / 50 / 200 EMA, all 40 names):
Above the 20 EMA: 11 of 40 · Above the 50 EMA: 13 of 40 · Above the 200 EMA: 22 of 40
Full bullish stack (above all three): 9 names - AAPL, MSFT, META, AMD, QCOM, PANW, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY
Full bearish stack (below all three): 17 names
Read: The index is in a corrective phase inside a longer-term uptrend. More than half the index still holds its 200 EMA, so the primary trend is not broken, but only a quarter of the index holds its 20 EMA - the short-term structure is decisively damaged. This is a narrow market: nine names are doing the work.
Structure since the 8 September high (29,655.73) is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the index. 29,368 is the pivot high that must be reclaimed to argue the pullback is over.



INDICATORS
RSI(14) - component distribution: Overbought (>=70): 1 (META 71.6). Oversold (<=30): 2 (CDNS 27.2, BKNG 29.5). Neutral: 37.
Median component RSI sits in the mid-40s - a pullback, not a washout. There is no broad oversold reading to fade, and no broad overbought reading to sell. CDNS at 27.2 with price below all three EMAs and below its POC is weak-and-oversold, not a bounce signal - oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not an entry.
MACD: Bullish (MACD > signal) on 14 of 40. The 26 bearish readings confirm momentum has rolled over across the majority of the index. Notably MSFT has turned MACD-bearish (9.37 vs 12.46 signal) while still holding its full bullish EMA stack - an early-warning divergence on the second-largest weight.
Volume: Relative volume was subdued on the downside - 24 of 40 names traded below their average volume. SNPS (rv 1.50), CRWD (1.42), MELI (1.39) and BKNG (1.31) were the only names with genuinely elevated participation. Low-conviction selling ahead of a known binary event is normal and is not, by itself, distribution.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance: R1 29,319 · R2 29,511 · R3 29,737 . Round-number resistance 29,500 and 30,000. Structural resistance: 29,368 (11 Sep close / last pivot high) then 29,656 (8 Sep high) and the 52-week high at 30,762.
Support: S1 28,901 · S2 28,676 · S3 28,484 . Round-number support 29,000 and 28,500. Structural support: 28,868 (14 Sep low) is the line in the sand - a daily close below it opens 28,500.
Classic pivots (from 14 Sep OHLC): S2 28,675.61 · S1 28,901.39 · P 29,093.44 · R1 29,319.22 · R2 29,511.27
Price is sitting just above the central pivot. Holding 29,093 keeps a bounce to 29,319 in play; losing it targets 28,901 then 28,676.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker · Close · Day % · Trend (strict EMA) · RSI zone · MACD · % from 52w high · POC

AAPL 331.34 · -0.52% · Bull (above all) · RSI 61.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -3.8% from 52w high · Above POC
MSFT 496.91 · -1.68% · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -10.3% from 52w high · Above POC
NVDA 212.17 · +0.57% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 45.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -10.3% from 52w high · Above POC
AMZN 248.42 · -2.02% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 41.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.5% from 52w high · Below POC
META 670.24 · +0.70% · Bull (above all) · RSI 71.6 OB · MACD Bull · -15.2% from 52w high · Above POC
GOOGL 344.98 · -1.26% · Mixed (>20 <50 >200) · RSI 51.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.6% from 52w high · Below POC
AVGO 339.27 · -1.58% · Bear (below all) · RSI 32.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -31.5% from 52w high · Below POC
TSLA 356.58 · -0.67% · Bear (below all) · RSI 50.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.5% from 52w high · Below POC
COST 901.35 · -1.91% · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -17.8% from 52w high · Below POC
NFLX 77.93 · -2.97% · Bear (below all) · RSI 49.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -37.6% from 52w high · Above POC
AMD 504.20 · +2.19% · Bull (above all) · RSI 54.1 Neutral · MACD Bull · -13.8% from 52w high · Below POC
ADBE 257.76 · -2.94% · Mixed (<20 >50 <200) · RSI 46.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -30.5% from 52w high · Above POC
QCOM 187.80 · +4.25% · Bull (above all) · RSI 69.5 Neutral · MACD Bull · -27.7% from 52w high · Above POC
TMUS 180.47 · -1.33% · Bear (below all) · RSI 48.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -26.1% from 52w high · Below POC
LIN 462.96 · -0.31% · Bear (below all) · RSI 32.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -15.5% from 52w high · Below POC
ISRG 377.16 · -0.21% · Mixed (>20 <50 <200) · RSI 52.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -37.5% from 52w high · Below POC
INTU 329.27 · -2.91% · Bear (below all) · RSI 48.0 Neutral · MACD Bear · -53.3% from 52w high · Above POC
CSCO 110.07 · +0.01% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.6% from 52w high · Below POC
TXN 263.43 · +0.00% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 47.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -21.1% from 52w high · Below POC
AMAT 421.17 · -0.72% · Bear (below all) · RSI 34.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -43.1% from 52w high · Below POC
BKNG 171.32 · -2.30% · Bear (below all) · RSI 29.5 OS · MACD Bear · -23.9% from 52w high · Below POC
PANW 375.09 · +0.31% · Bull (above all) · RSI 58.0 Neutral · MACD Bull · -6.0% from 52w high · Above POC
MU 927.60 · +0.39% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.9 Neutral · MACD Bear · -26.1% from 52w high · Below POC
LRCX 270.87 · -0.96% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 36.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -38.2% from 52w high · Below POC
KLAC 168.02 · -0.63% · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.3 Neutral · MACD Bear · -45.3% from 52w high · Below POC
ADI 361.35 · +0.09% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 44.8 Neutral · MACD Bull · -19.0% from 52w high · Below POC
REGN 774.11 · -2.47% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 44.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -9.9% from 52w high · Above POC
SNPS 367.70 · -3.60% · Bear (below all) · RSI 34.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -31.8% from 52w high · Below POC
CDNS 273.96 · -1.83% · Bear (below all) · RSI 27.2 OS · MACD Bear · -34.3% from 52w high · Below POC
MELI 1,828.94 · -3.75% · Bear (below all) · RSI 41.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -28.2% from 52w high · Below POC
CRWD 242.49 · +3.02% · Bull (above all) · RSI 64.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -0.6% from 52w high · Above POC
MAR 337.24 · -0.95% · Bear (below all) · RSI 41.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -17.9% from 52w high · Below POC
ABNB 168.32 · -1.37% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 42.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.0% from 52w high · Above POC
MRVL 221.70 · +1.32% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 49.4 Neutral · MACD Bear · -32.8% from 52w high · Below POC
DASH 198.26 · -2.59% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 38.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -30.6% from 52w high · Below POC
FTNT 172.37 · +1.29% · Bull (above all) · RSI 61.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -1.0% from 52w high · Above POC
CEG 259.89 · -1.77% · Bear (below all) · RSI 38.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -37.0% from 52w high · Below POC
WDAY 190.67 · -1.82% · Bull (above all) · RSI 52.6 Neutral · MACD Bear · -23.7% from 52w high · Above POC
PYPL 53.81 · -0.41% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 43.1 Neutral · MACD Bear · -32.1% from 52w high · Above POC
ORLY 85.16 · -2.36% · Bear (below all) · RSI 38.9 Neutral · MACD Bear · -21.7% from 52w high · Below POC



SECTOR GROUPING
Semiconductors - average +0.66%, 5 of 9 higher
AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL. The only group with a positive average. Leadership is bifurcated: QCOM and AMD hold full bullish stacks while AMAT (-43.1% from 52w high), KLAC (-45.3%) and LRCX (-38.2%) remain deeply broken. Semi-cap equipment is the weakest sub-group in the entire index.

Mega-cap Tech - average -0.81%, 2 of 8 higher
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, AVGO, TSLA. Only AAPL, MSFT and META hold bullish stacks. AVGO (RSI 32.3, -31.5% from high) and TSLA are below all three EMAs. NVDA has lost its 20 and 50 EMA but holds the 200 - a key level to watch given its index weight.

Software / Cloud - average -1.06%, 3 of 8 higher
ADBE, INTU, CRWD, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, FTNT, WDAY. The clearest split in the index: cybersecurity (CRWD, PANW, FTNT) is outright leadership while EDA (SNPS, CDNS) is in freefall - SNPS closed on a new 52-week low. INTU remains a wreck at -53.3% from its 52-week high.

Consumer / Internet - average -1.81%, 1 of 11 higher
COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, PYPL, ORLY, TMUS, CSCO. The worst group on the day and zero full bullish stacks. This is the yield-and-oil-sensitive cohort and it is being priced accordingly - travel (BKNG, MAR, ABNB) and discretionary retail (COST, ORLY) are leading the decline.

Healthcare / Biotech - average -1.34%
ISRG, REGN. Both lower. REGN gave up 2.47% but is only -9.9% from its 52-week high, the second-best relative position in the whole index.

Industrial / Other - average -1.04%
LIN, CEG. Both below all three EMAs. LIN at RSI 32.5 is approaching oversold. CEG is -37.0% from its high - the AI-power trade continues to unwind.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. QCOM - Long on pullback
Closed +4.25% at 187.80, the strongest large-cap move in the index. Full bullish EMA stack (20: 172.22 · 50: 172.64 · 200: 170.93) with all three clustered tightly beneath price, RSI 69.5, above POC 176.60, relative volume 1.18. A breakaway from a long base.
Entry: 182.50 (Camarilla S4 zone) · Stop: 174.80 (1.0x ATR below, under the EMA cluster) · T1: 195.65 · T2: 201.25 · R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.4 to T2
Confluence: EMA cluster + POC + classic S2 (176.61) all sit within 6 points beneath the stop - a deep, well-defended base. Risk: RSI at 69.5 means chasing the close is poor entry; wait for the retest.

2. CRWD - Long on 52-week high breakout
Closed +3.02% at 242.49, just 0.61% from its 52-week high of 243.98 - which was today's high. Full bullish stack with a wide, healthy separation (20: 213.93 · 50: 202.32 · 200: 159.39), RSI 64.6 with room, relative volume 1.42 - the second-highest in the index and on an UP day. This is accumulation.
Entry: 244.10 (stop-buy above the 52w high) · Stop: 235.90 (below Camarilla S4 235.96) · T1: 258.81 · T2: 271.00 · R:R: 1.8 to T1, 3.3 to T2
Confluence: Best-positioned name in the entire NAS100 relative to its 52-week high. Cybersecurity is the strongest sub-sector on the board. Risk: a hawkish Fed hits high-multiple software hardest - size accordingly.

3. FTNT - Long on 52-week high breakout
Closed +1.29% at 172.37, only 0.97% from its 52-week high of 174.05 (today's high). Full bullish stack (20: 160.88 · 50: 156.16 · 200: 125.06), RSI 61.4, above POC 158.10, relative volume 1.02.
Entry: 174.15 · Stop: 168.60 (below Camarilla S4 168.71 and today's low 167.40) · T1: 181.80 · T2: 188.00 · R:R: 1.4 to T1, 2.5 to T2
Confluence: Second cybersecurity name printing the same pattern as CRWD - sector confirmation rather than a single-stock story. Tight 5.55-point risk.

4. MELI - Short on retest
Closed -3.75% at 1,828.94 on relative volume 1.39. Lost all three EMAs (20: 1,908.61 · 50: 1,868.74 · 200: 1,881.80) and closed below POC 1,841.26. RSI 41.6 leaves plenty of downside room before oversold.
Entry: 1,845.00 short (retest of POC / pivot 1,847.84) · Stop: 1,888.00 (above today's high 1,886.36 and the 200 EMA) · T1: 1,789.70 · T2: 1,751.18 · R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.2 to T2
Confluence: POC, pivot, 50 EMA and 200 EMA all sit in a 46-point band overhead - a dense resistance shelf. Heavy-volume break below it.

5. SNPS - Short on 52-week low breakdown
Closed -3.60% at 367.70 with the highest relative volume in the index (1.50). Today's low of 362.55 is the 52-week low. Below all three EMAs (20: 401.72 · 50: 412.66 · 200: 443.82) and far below POC 413.39.
Entry: 362.40 short (break of the 52w low) · Stop: 378.20 (above Camarilla R4 378.11) · T1: 351.65 · T2: 340.74 · R:R: 0.7 to T1, 1.4 to T2
Confluence: Highest-conviction volume signature in the index, on the downside, at a 52-week low. Risk: R:R to T1 is below 1 - this is a runner trade, take partials at T1 and hold the balance for T2. RSI 34.6 is approaching oversold.



INTRADAY SETUPS - FOR WEDNESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER
Important: the Fed decision lands at 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Range-fade setups below are valid for the morning session only - flatten or widen stops before the announcement.

1. AAPL - Camarilla range fade (long)
Camarilla range is exceptionally tight (S4 329.45 to R4 333.23 - just 3.78 points on a 7.55 ATR stock), which is the classic Camarilla range-bound signature. Price closed at 331.34, mid-range, with a bullish EMA stack beneath.
Entry: 330.40 (Cam S3) · Stop: 329.30 (below Cam S4) · T1: 332.28 (Cam R3) · T2: 333.23 (Cam R4) · R:R: 1.7 to T1 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Compressed Camarilla range with trend support underneath. Fade S3, target R3.

2. NVDA - Camarilla breakout (long)
Camarilla range is only 3.06 points wide (S4 210.64 to R4 213.70) against a 6.75 ATR - a 2.2x ATR-to-range compression. That is a breakout signature, not a fade signature. NVDA closed +0.57% at 212.17, holding its 200 EMA (198.89) and its POC (210.26).
Entry: 213.75 (break of Cam R4) · Stop: 210.50 (below Cam S4) · T1: 215.20 (classic R2) · T2: 216.47 (classic R3) · R:R: 0.4 to T1, 0.8 to T2 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Valid breakout structure but the R:R is poor on the published targets - only worth taking if it runs, so trail rather than target. The real level is the 50 EMA at 214.69, sitting directly between entry and T1. A rejection there invalidates the trade.

3. AVGO - Pivot rejection (short)
Closed -1.58% at 339.27, below all three EMAs, RSI 32.3, -31.5% from its 52-week high. The 20 EMA (365.13) and 200 EMA (365.12) are almost exactly coincident 26 points overhead - a hard ceiling.
Entry: 341.48 short (classic pivot) · Stop: 345.10 (above Cam R4 344.42 and classic R1 345.05) · T1: 335.69 · T2: 332.12 · R:R: 1.6 to T1, 2.6 to T2 · Direction: Short
Reasoning: Clean pivot-rejection short with stacked resistance. Watch RSI 32.3 - close to oversold, so take T1 partials.

4. COST - Pivot rejection (short)
Closed -1.91% at 901.35, below all three EMAs (20: 926.25 · 50: 940.79 · 200: 957.49 - a perfect bearish cascade), RSI 37.3, well below POC 940.50, relative volume 1.10. The 900 round number is the immediate battleground.
Entry: 906.17 short (classic pivot) · Stop: 911.00 (above Cam R4 910.52) · T1: 895.43 · T2: 889.50 · R:R: 2.2 to T1, 3.4 to T2 · Direction: Short
Reasoning: Best intraday R:R on the board. Textbook bearish EMA cascade with every moving average above price and pointing down. Earnings 24 Sep - no event risk this week.

5. AMD - Camarilla breakout (long)
Closed +2.19% at 504.20, full bullish stack (20: 489.26 · 50: 485.52 · 200: 381.72), RSI 54.1 with plenty of room. Price closed fractionally below POC 505.11 and classic pivot 505.13 - reclaiming that band is the trigger.
Entry: 513.20 (break of Cam R4 513.09 and today's high 513.67) · Stop: 495.20 (below Cam S4 495.31) · T1: 521.29 · T2: 528.90 · R:R: 0.45 to T1, 0.87 to T2 · Direction: Long
Reasoning: Strong structure but a wide 23.34 ATR makes the Camarilla stop expensive. Published R:R is below 1 - reduce size or use a tighter discretionary stop at 505.00 (POC/pivot), which lifts R:R to 2.0 to T1.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
AAPL - 331.34 (-0.52%)
Cam: S4 329.45 · S3 330.40 · S1 331.03 || R1 331.65 · R3 332.28 · R4 333.23
Classic: S3 325.77 · S2 327.06 · S1 329.20 || P 330.49 || R1 332.63 · R2 333.92 · R3 336.06
EMA 20 321.42 · EMA 50 315.45 · EMA 200 288.83 · POC 310.97
Prev H/L: 331.78 / 328.35 · 52w H/L: 344.57 / 235.03 · ATR14 7.55

MSFT - 496.91 (-1.68%)
Cam: S4 491.21 · S3 494.06 · S1 495.96 || R1 497.86 · R3 499.76 · R4 502.61
Classic: S3 482.64 · S2 489.09 · S1 493.00 || P 499.45 || R1 503.36 · R2 509.81 · R3 513.72
EMA 20 493.00 · EMA 50 468.18 · EMA 200 441.87 · POC 429.31
Prev H/L: 505.90 / 495.54 · 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 · ATR14 10.90

NVDA - 212.17 (+0.57%)
Cam: S4 210.64 · S3 211.41 · S1 211.92 || R1 212.42 · R3 212.93 · R4 213.70
Classic: S3 208.13 · S2 209.64 · S1 210.91 || P 212.42 || R1 213.69 · R2 215.20 · R3 216.47
EMA 20 218.41 · EMA 50 214.69 · EMA 200 198.89 · POC 210.26
Prev H/L: 213.94 / 211.16 · 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.27 · ATR14 6.75

AMZN - 248.42 (-2.02%)
Cam: S4 245.09 · S3 246.76 · S1 247.87 || R1 248.97 · R3 250.08 · R4 251.75
Classic: S3 239.95 · S2 243.59 · S1 246.00 || P 249.64 || R1 252.05 · R2 255.69 · R3 258.10
EMA 20 256.64 · EMA 50 255.61 · EMA 200 242.87 · POC 250.30
Prev H/L: 253.27 / 247.22 · 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 · ATR14 6.22

META - 670.24 (+0.70%)
Cam: S4 657.77 · S3 664.01 · S1 668.16 || R1 672.32 · R3 676.47 · R4 682.71
Classic: S3 635.33 · S2 645.77 · S1 658.00 || P 668.44 || R1 680.67 · R2 691.11 · R3 703.34
EMA 20 614.41 · EMA 50 602.67 · EMA 200 620.05 · POC 599.81
Prev H/L: 678.87 / 656.20 · 52w H/L: 790.80 / 520.26 · ATR14 21.41



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Breadth is genuinely poor. Only 11 of 40 names closed higher and only 11 of 40 hold their 20 EMA. A market where 27.5% of constituents are above their short-term average is not a healthy market, whatever the index prints.
2. MSFT MACD has crossed bearish (9.37 vs 12.46 signal) while still holding its full bullish EMA stack. On the second-largest index weight, momentum rolling over before price is an early-warning signal worth respecting.
3. Oversold-in-downtrend cluster. CDNS (RSI 27.2), BKNG (29.5), AVGO (32.3), LIN (32.5), AMAT (34.1), SNPS (34.6) are all oversold or near-oversold AND below all three EMAs. These are not bounce candidates - they are names where sellers are still in control.
4. Near 52-week lows. SNPS closed at 367.70 with a 52-week low of 362.55 - today's low WAS the 52-week low. COST (901.35 vs 844.06 low), CEG (259.89 vs 228.63), ORLY (85.16 vs 82.59) and BKNG (171.32 vs 150.14) are all in the lower quarter of their annual range.
5. Deep drawdowns persist. INTU -53.3%, KLAC -45.3%, AMAT -43.1%, LRCX -38.2%, NFLX -37.6%, ISRG -37.5%, CEG -37.0% from 52-week highs. Roughly a fifth of the index is in a bear market of its own.
6. META is the only overbought name at RSI 71.6 and it is still -15.3% from its 52-week high. Being overbought that far below the high is a rally within a downtrend, not a new uptrend.
7. Macro overhang. 10-year yield at a 2007 high of 5.02% and Brent above $107. Both are direct headwinds to the index's valuation multiple.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Wednesday 16 September
FOMC rate decision - 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET, with Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, followed by the Chair Warsh press conference at 19:30 UK. Current target range is 3.50-3.75%. Markets are pricing a 25bp HIKE as the base case. This is the single dominant risk event of the week for the NAS100. The key question is not the hike itself but whether it is framed as a one-off recalibration or the start of further tightening.

Ongoing macro drivers
10-year Treasury yield - touched 5.02%, highest since 2007. Every basis point above 5% is direct pressure on high-multiple tech.
Brent crude above $107, WTI above $104 - Gulf supply disruption and Strait of Hormuz concerns. Feeds the inflation side of the Fed's problem.
AI-safety commentary from senior industry figures continues to weigh on semiconductor and AI-infrastructure sentiment.

Component earnings - none of the 40 report this week
COST - Thursday 24 September, after the close (fiscal Q4).
MU - Wednesday 30 September, after the close (fiscal Q4).
The remaining 38 names are outside their reporting windows. No single-stock earnings risk in the NAS100 this week - the Fed is the only event that matters.



Report: 15 September 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - MONDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2026
Data: Close 14 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,127.16 | Change: -241.28 (-0.82%) | Range: 28,867.67 - 29,285.50



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,127.16, down 241.28 points (-0.82%), after trading as low as 28,867.67 intraday. The index recovered roughly 260 points off the session low into the close but still finished at the lower third of the daily range and below the prior day close of 29,368.44.
Monday was a violent rotation day rather than a broad liquidation. Reports that the leading frontier AI labs jointly called for an industry-wide slowdown in model capability development hit AI hardware and semiconductor names hard, while capital moved aggressively into cybersecurity and enterprise software. Adding pressure, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5.00% for the first time since 2023 before settling near 4.99%, the 30-year sat around 5.35%, and crude traded near 110 dollars. The VIX closed at 17.10, up 7.95%.
Bias: cautiously bearish into the FOMC. The index has lost both its 20 and 50 EMA, daily MACD has rolled to a bearish cross, and the Fed decision on Wednesday 16 September is being priced with roughly 85-90% odds of a rate hike. Downside momentum is real but not yet confirmed - the 200 EMA is still nearly 1,700 points below price and internals are split rather than uniformly weak.



TREND STRUCTURE
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA20 29,326.76 - BELOW by 199.6 points
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA50 29,216.17 - BELOW by 89.0 points
Close 29,127.16 vs EMA200 27,419.88 - ABOVE by 1,707.3 points
EMA classification: Bear (below 20/50). Price is beneath both short-term averages while the long-term uptrend is intact. The 20 EMA now sits above the 50 EMA by only 110 points - a compression that typically resolves into a decisive move. Structurally the index has printed a lower high and a lower low versus last week, with 29,655 (Tuesday high) the swing high to reclaim.
Phase: corrective pullback inside a primary uptrend. The bull case remains intact above the 50 EMA cluster; a sustained close beneath 28,900 would mark the first genuine trend damage since the summer advance.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 46.7 - neutral-to-soft, below the 50 midline for the first time in the recent sequence. Not oversold, which means there is room to fall before mean-reversion buyers are mechanically triggered. No bullish divergence present: price made a lower low and RSI confirmed it.
MACD: 3.3 vs signal 36.0, histogram -32.7 - fresh bearish crossover with the histogram expanding to the downside. The MACD line is now hovering barely above zero; a move below zero would confirm the momentum regime has flipped.
Volume and breadth: index volume was heavy at 1.21bn on the session. Component breadth was deeply split - 21 of the 40 tracked constituents are classified Bear on the strict EMA test, 13 Bull, 6 Mixed, and MACD is bearish on 26 of 40. That is a market with a clear internal fault line rather than a uniform sell-off.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R3 29,737.04 . R2 29,511.27 . R1 29,319.21 - classic pivots
29,326.76 - EMA20, the first structural level bulls must reclaim
29,500 / 29,655 - round number and last week swing high
Support
Pivot 29,093.44 - immediate intraday reference
S1 28,901.38 . S2 28,675.61 . S3 28,483.55 - classic pivots
28,867.67 - today low, the line in the sand for the bounce
29,216.17 - EMA50, now overhead resistance after today loss
28,500 / 29,000 - key round numbers
27,419.88 - EMA200, the structural bull line



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Day % . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI(14) zone . MACD . % from 52w high . vs 60d POC
MEGA-CAP TECH
AAPL . 333.08 . +0.24% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -3.3% from 52w high . Above POC
MSFT . 505.41 . +1.97% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.4 Strong . MACD Bear . -8.7% from 52w high . Above POC
NVDA . 210.96 . -3.36% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -10.8% from 52w high . Above POC
AMZN . 253.54 . -1.26% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -11.7% from 52w high . Above POC
META . 665.60 . +2.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 70.8 Overbought . MACD Bull . -15.8% from 52w high . Above POC
GOOGL . 349.39 . +3.22% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -14.5% from 52w high . Above POC
TSLA . 358.97 . -1.77% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -28.0% from 52w high . Below POC
NFLX . 80.32 . +3.77% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.9 Bullish . MACD Bear . -35.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SEMICONDUCTORS
AVGO . 344.72 . -4.77% . Bear (below all) . RSI 34.3 Very weak . MACD Bear . -30.4% from 52w high . Below POC
AMD . 493.41 . -4.40% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -15.6% from 52w high . Below POC
QCOM . 180.15 . -1.00% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -30.7% from 52w high . Above POC
TXN . 263.42 . -1.97% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.3 Weak . MACD Bull . -21.1% from 52w high . Below POC
AMAT . 424.21 . -7.07% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 34.7 Very weak . MACD Bear . -42.6% from 52w high . Below POC
MU . 924.03 . -5.25% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -26.4% from 52w high . Below POC
LRCX . 273.49 . -8.29% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 37.2 Very weak . MACD Bear . -37.6% from 52w high . Below POC
KLAC . 169.09 . -6.39% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.9 Very weak . MACD Bull . -45.0% from 52w high . Below POC
ADI . 361.02 . -4.69% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.6 Weak . MACD Bull . -19.0% from 52w high . Below POC
MRVL . 218.82 . -7.32% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.2 Weak . MACD Bull . -33.7% from 52w high . Below POC
SOFTWARE AND CLOUD
ADBE . 265.57 . +5.29% . Mixed (<20 >50 <200) . RSI 50.5 Bullish . MACD Bear . -28.4% from 52w high . Above POC
INTU . 339.15 . +5.47% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.5 Bullish . MACD Bear . -51.9% from 52w high . Above POC
PANW . 373.94 . +13.09% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Bullish . MACD Bear . -6.3% from 52w high . Above POC
CRWD . 235.38 . +13.85% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -1.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SNPS . 381.43 . -4.01% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.7 Very weak . MACD Bear . -29.3% from 52w high . Below POC
CDNS . 279.06 . -3.56% . Bear (below all) . RSI 28.9 Oversold . MACD Bear . -33.0% from 52w high . Below POC
FTNT . 170.18 . +9.04% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -2.1% from 52w high . Above POC
WDAY . 194.21 . +4.58% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -22.3% from 52w high . Above POC
CONSUMER AND INTERNET
COST . 918.91 . +1.56% . Bear (below all) . RSI 43.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -16.2% from 52w high . Below POC
BKNG . 175.35 . +0.82% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.0 Very weak . MACD Bear . -22.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MELI . 1,900.24 . +0.15% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.2 Weak . MACD Bear . -25.4% from 52w high . Above POC
MAR . 340.46 . +1.72% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -17.2% from 52w high . Below POC
ABNB . 170.65 . +0.27% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 44.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -11.8% from 52w high . Above POC
DASH . 203.54 . +0.79% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -28.7% from 52w high . Above POC
PYPL . 54.03 . +0.58% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -31.8% from 52w high . Above POC
ORLY . 87.22 . +1.63% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -19.8% from 52w high . Below POC
TMUS . 182.90 . +0.31% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.3 Bullish . MACD Bear . -25.1% from 52w high . Above POC
CSCO . 110.06 . -1.85% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.1 Weak . MACD Bull . -15.6% from 52w high . Below POC
HEALTHCARE AND INDUSTRIAL
ISRG . 377.94 . +2.38% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 53.0 Bullish . MACD Bull . -37.4% from 52w high . Below POC
REGN . 793.74 . +1.57% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.6 Weak . MACD Bear . -7.6% from 52w high . Above POC
LIN . 464.41 . -0.39% . Bear (below all) . RSI 33.4 Very weak . MACD Bear . -15.3% from 52w high . Below POC
CEG . 264.57 . -7.09% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.5 Weak . MACD Bear . -35.9% from 52w high . Below POC



SECTOR READ
Semiconductors - the damage zone. Every one of the ten semis tracked closed red: LRCX -8.29%, MRVL -7.32%, AMAT -7.07%, KLAC -6.39%, MU -5.25%, AVGO -4.77%, ADI -4.69%, AMD -4.40%, TXN -1.97%, QCOM -1.00%. Eight of the ten now sit below their 20 and 50 EMAs and nine are below their 60-day POC. AMAT is 42.6% off its 52-week high, KLAC 45.0%. This is not a one-day wobble - it is a sector in a defined downtrend.
Software and cybersecurity - the destination. CRWD +13.85%, PANW +13.09%, FTNT +9.04%, INTU +5.47%, ADBE +5.29%, WDAY +4.58%. CRWD closed at 235.38, just 1.7% off its 52-week high on 2.2x relative volume; PANW at 1.8x and FTNT at 1.39x. Money leaving AI capex plays is landing here, and the volume confirms it is real institutional flow rather than a squeeze.
Mega-cap tech - resilient. MSFT +1.97%, META +2.71%, GOOGL +3.22%, AAPL +0.24% all held up, and all four are Bull (above all) on the strict EMA test. NVDA -3.36% and AMZN -1.26% were the drags, both now Bear (below 20/50). The mega-cap bid is what stopped the index from breaking 28,800.
Consumer and internet - quietly weak. BKNG RSI 32.0 and Bear (below all), ORLY, MAR and COST all below every EMA. DASH and ABNB sit on sub-0.65 relative volume - no conviction either way.
Healthcare and industrial - LIN RSI 33.4 and CEG -7.09% are both Bear (below all). CEG is 35.9% off its high and was dragged down with the AI power-demand theme.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. CRWD - Long, breakout continuation
Entry: 239.80 on a break of today high . Stop: 226.50 (approx 1.0 ATR, below today VWAP-area low) . T1: 253.59 . T2: 267.80 . R:R: 1.04 to T1, 2.14 to T2
Confluence: closed at 235.38 having tagged a new 52-week high at 239.37. Bull (above all) with EMA20 at 210.92 and EMA200 at 158.56 far below. Relative volume 2.20 - the highest in the index. Price is 35.9 points above the 60-day POC of 199.50, so there is no volume shelf overhead to absorb the move. ATR 12.85.
2. PANW - Long, pullback to the pivot
Entry: 364.30 on a retest of the daily pivot . Stop: 348.00 (below EMA20 at 350.19) . T1: 388.28 . T2: 398.88 (52w high) . R:R: 1.47 to T1, 2.12 to T2
Confluence: +13.09% on 1.8x volume, Bull (above all), only 6.3% from the 52-week high. The 60-day POC at 341.47 sits just beneath the EMA20 at 350.19 - a genuine double support shelf. Chasing at 374 is poor risk; the pivot retest is the trade. ATR 19.43.
3. FTNT - Long, tight-stop breakout
Entry: 171.20 above today high . Stop: 164.00 (1.0 ATR, below Cam S4 at 164.20) . T1: 177.94 . T2: 184.93 . R:R: 0.94 to T1, 1.91 to T2
Confluence: +9.04% on 1.39x volume, Bull (above all), 2.1% from the 52-week high of 173.89. POC 157.08 and EMA20 159.67 cluster tightly below. The R:R to T1 is under 1 - this is a runner trade or skip it. ATR 7.15.
4. AMAT - Short, trend continuation
Entry: 419.50 on a break of today low . Stop: 442.00 (1.0 ATR, above today high) . T1: 405.46 . T2: 385.00 . R:R: 0.62 to T1, 1.53 to T2
Confluence: -7.07% on 1.23x volume with RSI at 34.7. Bear (below 20/50) with EMA20 at 469.93 and EMA50 at 494.42 far overhead - a 45-point and 70-point resistance wall. Price is 130 points below the 60-day POC of 554.78, meaning almost every buyer from the last quarter is underwater. The caveat: EMA200 sits at 423.55, right at the close, so the first test is whether 423 gives way. ATR 22.51.
5. CDNS - Short, oversold continuation with caution
Entry: 277.90 below today low . Stop: 289.50 (above today high) . T1: 264.47 . T2: 262.75 (52w low) . R:R: 1.16 to T1, 1.31 to T2
Confluence: Bear (below all) with the full stack - EMA20 307.72, EMA50 326.30, EMA200 330.79 - stacked above price. 33.0% from the 52-week high and only 6.1% above the 52-week low of 262.75. RSI is 28.9 - genuinely oversold, so size this small: oversold can stay oversold, but bounce risk is elevated. ATR 11.47.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. NAS100 - Pivot reclaim long
Direction: Long . Entry: 29,100 on an hourly close back above the daily pivot of 29,093 . Stop: 28,940 . Target: 29,319 (R1) then 29,327 (EMA20) . R:R: 1.37
Reasoning: the index closed 34 points beneath its own pivot after rallying 260 points off the low. A reclaim of the pivot on the open is the cleanest bullish tell, and R1 coincides almost exactly with the EMA20 - a natural profit target and a logical rejection point.
2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade
Direction: Long . Entry: 208.85 at Cam S4 . Stop: 206.00 . Target: 211.31 (Cam R1) then 212.84 (R1) . R:R: 0.86 to first target
Reasoning: NVDA closed at 210.96, essentially on its 60-day POC of 210.21 and its daily pivot of 210.89 - a triple confluence magnet. The Camarilla range is only 4.22 points wide, so this is a scalp, not a swing. RSI 43.9 with relative volume 0.97 suggests mean reversion rather than trend.
3. AVGO - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short . Entry: 341.20 below Cam S4 . Stop: 346.30 (Cam R3) . Target: 336.00 (S3) . R:R: 1.02
Reasoning: -4.77% with RSI 34.3 and Bear (below all). The Camarilla range is compressed at 6.98 points versus a 12.46 ATR, which is the classic Camarilla breakout condition - range width well below ATR. POC at 379.97 is 35 points overhead.
4. MSFT - Pivot bounce long
Direction: Long . Entry: 503.60 at the daily pivot . Stop: 496.50 (below Cam S4 at 497.37) . Target: 511.79 (R1) then 518.18 (R2) . R:R: 1.15 to R1
Reasoning: MSFT +1.97% and Bull (above all) on a soft tape - relative strength worth owning. EMA20 at 492.59 and Cam S4 at 497.37 form a support band beneath the pivot. POC 427.29 is a distant 78 points below, so nothing overhead blocks it.
5. LRCX - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short . Entry: 269.50 below Cam S4 . Stop: 275.50 (Cam R3) . Target: 264.13 (S3) . R:R: 0.90
Reasoning: -8.29% on 1.46x relative volume, the heaviest semiconductor conviction of the day. Closed at 273.49 against a low of 273.24 - it closed on its low, which is continuation behaviour. The Camarilla range is a compressed 4.47 points versus 16.15 ATR. Caution: EMA200 at 266.99 sits just under the target.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5
NVDA . Close 210.96
Cam: S4 208.85 . S3 209.90 . S1 210.61 || R1 211.31 . R3 212.02 . R4 213.07
Classic: S3 205.16 . S2 207.05 . S1 209.00 . P 210.89 . R1 212.84 . R2 214.73 . R3 216.68
EMA20 219.06 . EMA50 214.79 . EMA200 198.76 . POC 210.21 . ATR 7.04
Prev H 212.77 . Prev L 208.93 . 52w H 236.54 . 52w L 164.27
MSFT . Close 505.41
Cam: S4 497.37 . S3 501.39 . S1 504.07 || R1 506.75 . R3 509.43 . R4 513.45
Classic: S3 482.57 . S2 488.96 . S1 497.18 . P 503.57 . R1 511.79 . R2 518.18 . R3 526.40
EMA20 492.59 . EMA50 467.00 . EMA200 441.31 . POC 427.29 . ATR 10.94
Prev H 509.95 . Prev L 495.34 . 52w H 553.72 . 52w L 349.20
AAPL . Close 333.08
Cam: S4 330.79 . S3 331.94 . S1 332.70 || R1 333.46 . R3 334.22 . R4 335.37
Classic: S3 326.95 . S2 329.15 . S1 331.11 . P 333.31 . R1 335.27 . R2 337.47 . R3 339.43
EMA20 320.37 . EMA50 314.80 . EMA200 288.40 . POC 310.45 . ATR 7.77
Prev H 335.50 . Prev L 331.34 . 52w H 344.57 . 52w L 229.02
AVGO . Close 344.72
Cam: S4 341.23 . S3 342.98 . S1 344.14 || R1 345.30 . R3 346.46 . R4 348.21
Classic: S3 336.00 . S2 339.95 . S1 342.34 . P 346.29 . R1 348.68 . R2 352.63 . R3 355.02
EMA20 367.85 . EMA50 378.64 . EMA200 365.38 . POC 379.97 . ATR 12.46
Prev H 350.25 . Prev L 343.91 . 52w H 495.00 . 52w L 289.96
CRWD . Close 235.38
Cam: S4 222.55 . S3 228.97 . S1 233.24 || R1 237.52 . R3 241.79 . R4 248.21
Classic: S3 197.84 . S2 206.95 . S1 221.16 . P 230.27 . R1 244.48 . R2 253.59 . R3 267.80
EMA20 210.92 . EMA50 200.68 . EMA200 158.56 . POC 199.50 . ATR 12.85
Prev H 239.37 . Prev L 216.05 . 52w H 239.37 . 52w L 85.68



BEARISH WARNINGS
Index MACD bearish cross. NAS100 MACD 3.3 has crossed below its signal at 36.0 with the histogram at -32.7 and widening. The MACD line is a whisker above zero.
Full EMA breakdown in semis. AVGO, KLAC, SNPS and CDNS are all Bear (below all) - price beneath the 20, 50 and 200 EMAs simultaneously. LIN, COST, BKNG, MAR, CEG and ORLY are in the same condition outside the chip space. That is ten of forty names with no moving-average support left.
Oversold but still falling. CDNS RSI 28.9, BKNG 32.0, LIN 33.4, AVGO 34.3, AMAT 34.7, LRCX 37.2, KLAC 37.9, SNPS 38.7. Eight names under RSI 40 with no bullish divergence in any of them.
Names near 52-week lows. CDNS is 6.1% above its 52-week low of 262.75. AMAT at 424.21 is 42.6% below its high, KLAC 45.0% below, INTU 51.9% below.
Overbought caution. META RSI 70.8 after +2.71% - extended into resistance and vulnerable if the mega-cap bid fades.
Macro overhang. A 10-year yield at 4.99% having touched 5.00%, a 30-year at 5.35%, crude near 110 dollars, and an 85-90% priced probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. Long-duration growth multiples do not expand in that environment.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Tuesday 15 September - FOMC meeting begins (two-day). No major NASDAQ 100 constituent earnings scheduled before the open.
Wednesday 16 September - FOMC rate decision at 14:00 ET / 19:00 UK, Powell press conference at 14:30 ET. Advance Retail Sales for August at 08:30 ET. Lennar (LEN) reports after the close - not an index member but a read on rate-sensitive demand.
Thursday 17 September - post-FOMC positioning day, weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET.
Friday 18 September - quarterly triple witching expiry, typically the heaviest volume session of the quarter.
Earnings: a light week for the 40 tracked constituents. PANW, CRWD, ADBE and FTNT have all just reported - today outsized moves in those names reflect post-earnings repricing, which is why the volume profile is credible rather than speculative.



SUMMARY
A rotation, not a rout. The index lost 0.82% and both short-term moving averages, and the MACD has crossed bearish - but underneath, capital moved decisively from AI hardware into cybersecurity and enterprise software on genuine volume. The semiconductor complex is the clear structural loser; cybersecurity is the clear structural winner.
Everything between now and Wednesday evening is positioning. With an 85-90% priced probability of a Fed hike and the 10-year flirting with 5%, the risk is asymmetric to the downside for long-duration growth. Levels that matter: 28,867 on the downside, 29,327 (EMA20) on the upside. Trade the reaction, not the prediction.



Report: 14 September 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2026


Data: Close 11 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,385 est | Change: +281 (+0.96%) | Range: 29,038-29,250 (10 Sep official)
Note on the index print: Nasdaq had not published the official NDX settlement for 11 Sep at the time of writing. The last confirmed official NDX close is 29,103.51 on 10 Sep (H 29,250.41 / L 29,038.22). The 29,385 figure above is derived from the +0.96% Nasdaq move on 11 Sep and is an estimate. All 40 component prices, EMAs, pivots and Camarilla levels below are exact scanner values for the 11 Sep close.


MARKET OVERVIEW


US equities snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday. The Nasdaq closed +251.31 points (+0.96%) at 26,333 on the Composite, the S&P 500 gained +0.86% to 7,656 and the Dow added +0.98%. Nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher, led by Technology, Industrials and Communications - all up over 1%. Despite the bounce, the Nasdaq still finished the week down 0.7%.

The driver was a relief rally rather than a change of regime. August CPI came in mostly in line at +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y, but core CPI rose +0.3% m/m against +0.2% expected. Fed funds futures now price roughly a 90% chance of a rate hike at Wednesday 16 September FOMC, up from about 70% pre-CPI. The 10-year yield closed at 4.974%, its highest intraday level since October 2023, and the 2-year hit 4.65%. WTI settled at $100.05 after an 8% weekly gain, and the VIX traded near 18.8 - its first sustained move above 17 in 28 sessions.

Bias: Cautiously bearish into FOMC. Breadth was broad on the day (31 of 40 NAS100 names higher, average +1.10%) but the internal EMA structure is materially weaker than the index level implies. 19 of the 40 components remain below their 20 and 50-day EMAs, and only 8 hold a full bullish stack above all three. This is an oversold bounce inside a deteriorating tape, not a confirmed reversal.


TREND


Component EMA structure (strict close-versus-EMA test, all 40 verified programmatically):

Bull - above all three EMAs: 8 (AAPL, MSFT, META, AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL)
Bull - above 20/50, below 200: 3 (TSLA, TMUS, CEG)
Bear - below all three EMAs: 13 (AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, PYPL, ORLY)
Bear - below 20/50, above 200: 6 (GOOGL, AMAT, PANW, LRCX, KLAC, DASH)
Mixed: 10 (NVDA, AMZN, REGN, MELI, CRWD, ABNB, FTNT, WDAY - all below 20 above 50/200; CSCO, TXN - above 20 below 50, above 200)

Structure: Only 20% of the index sits in a clean bullish EMA stack. 13 names - almost a third - are in full bearish alignment. The mega-cap complex is split: AAPL, MSFT and META are structurally intact, while NVDA, AMZN and GOOGL have all lost their 20-day EMA. That divergence between the index and its own internals is the single most important observation in this report.

Phase: Late-stage distribution with a counter-trend rally in progress. The market is rotating out of software and into semiconductors and hardware on the Oracle AI-capex readthrough, while rate-sensitive and defensive names are being sold.


INDICATORS


RSI(14) distribution across the 40:

Overbought (70+): 0
Strong (60-70): 3 - META 67.2, QCOM 66.3, AAPL 62.8
Bullish (50-60): 9 - AMD 58.0, MSFT 56.7, ADI 56.1, MRVL 55.5, TSLA 54.5, CEG 53.7, MU 53.0, TXN 51.7, TMUS 51.5
Neutral (40-50): 22
Weak (30-40): 6 - BKNG 30.0, CDNS 32.7, LIN 34.5, COST 35.5, MAR 38.0, ORLY 38.9
Oversold (sub-30): 0

Divergence watch: ISRG closed +2.41% on relative volume of 1.35 with RSI still at 48.1 and price below all three EMAs - a bounce into supply, not a base. ADBE traded on relative volume of 2.16, more than double normal, and still finished below its 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs after the beat-and-raise quarter; that volume on a failed hold is distribution.

MACD: 16 bullish versus 24 bearish. The bullish cohort is dominated by semis (AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL, TXN, AMAT, KLAC, AVGO) plus AAPL, META, CSCO, TSLA, CEG. Strongest histograms: META +9.88, AMD +6.51, MU +3.89, QCOM +2.29. Deepest negative histograms: MELI -11.02, REGN -9.14, INTU -6.25, ADBE -5.20, COST -4.86, DASH -4.76, BKNG -4.52, PANW -4.15.

Volume: Conviction was thin. Only four names printed relative volume above 1.00 - ADBE 2.16, ISRG 1.35, AAPL 1.18, AMD 1.03 (and MAR 1.03, QCOM 1.02, ORLY 1.00). The median relative volume across the 40 was roughly 0.80. A 1% index day on below-average participation is a low-quality rally.


KEY INDEX LEVELS


Classic pivots computed from the last officially published NDX session (10 Sep: H 29,250.41 / L 29,038.22 / C 29,103.51). Friday cleared R2 on the estimated close, so treat R1/R2 as flipped support if the level holds Monday.

Resistance:
R3 29,555 - extension target
R2 29,343 - cleared Friday, now first support on a pullback
R1 29,223 - cleared Friday
Pivot: P 29,131
Support:
S1 29,011 - Thursday high inversion
S2 28,919 - loss here reopens the weekly downtrend
S3 28,799

Round numbers in play: 29,500 overhead, 29,000 the line that matters, then 28,500. A close back under 29,000 would confirm Friday as a failed bounce.


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40


Trend column uses the strict test: close versus each of the 20, 50 and 200-day EMA. All 40 classifications were verified programmatically against the raw closes - zero mismatches. POC is the 60-day volume-weighted point of control.


SECTOR GROUPING


Mega-cap Tech (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, NFLX, COST)
Average +1.02%. Split down the middle. AAPL +1.75% is the standout - Bull all, RSI 62.8, only 3.6% off its 52-week high, the strongest large-cap chart in the index. MSFT and META hold their stacks. NVDA is now below its 20-day EMA with RSI 49.8 and a bearish MACD - the AI bellwether has stopped leading. COST is the worst of the group: Bear all, RSI 35.5, 17.5% off highs.

Semiconductors (AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL)
Average +2.57% - the clear leadership group on the day. ADI +4.85%, MRVL +4.03%, TXN +3.82%, QCOM +2.88%, AMD +2.49%. The Oracle cloud-infrastructure result (+121% infrastructure revenue, $664bn backlog) lit up the memory and analog complex. But note the split: AMD, QCOM, MU, ADI, MRVL are Bull all; AVGO, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC are all still below their 20 and 50-day EMAs and deep below POC. This is a first-day rotation, not an established uptrend across the group.

Software / Cloud (ADBE, INTU, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY, MSFT)
The weakest sector. Average +0.10%, and the only NAS100 group with multiple losers. PANW -2.32%, FTNT -1.75%, CRWD -1.02% on the Wedbush note arguing cyber budget is being redistributed to AI-native platforms rather than expanded. SNPS and CDNS are both Bear all with CDNS RSI at 32.7. INTU sits 54.4% below its 52-week high - the worst drawdown in the index.

Consumer / Internet (AMZN, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY, TMUS, CSCO)
Average +1.10%, flattered by CSCO +4.37% and TMUS +2.92%. Underneath, BKNG is the most oversold name in the index at RSI 30.0, Bear all, 22.7% off highs, and MAR, DASH and ORLY are all below their 20 and 50-day EMAs. Travel and discretionary are being repriced for $100 oil.

Healthcare / Biotech (ISRG, REGN)
ISRG -38.9% from its 52-week high and Bear all; REGN -1.48% on the day with a MACD histogram of -9.14. Healthcare lagged the broad tape on Friday and medtech remains a visible weak spot.

Industrial / Other (LIN, CEG, PYPL)
LIN is Bear all with RSI 34.5 and sits 7% below its POC - industrial gas demand reading through from the energy shock. CEG held above its 20 and 50-day EMAs but closed -0.43% and remains 31% off highs.


TOP SWING SETUPS


1. QCOM - LONG (highest-conviction setup)
Entry: 182.50 on a hold above Friday pivot 181.06 . Stop: 174.50 (1.04 ATR) . T1: 190.78 (R2) . T2: 196.09 (R3) . R:R: 1.70
Confluence: Bull all - close 181.97 above 20-EMA 169.57, 50-EMA 171.68 and 200-EMA 170.66, with all three EMAs clustered within 1.3% of each other in a textbook compression. RSI 66.3 is the second-strongest in the index and not yet overbought. MACD histogram +2.29 and rising. Closed +2.88% on relative volume 1.02. POC context: price is above the 60-day POC at 179.55, which now acts as the first defended support on any dip - a close back under 179.55 invalidates the thesis before the stop is reached.


2. ADI - LONG on POC reclaim
Entry: 384.60 on a break and hold above POC . Stop: 372.00 (1.13 ATR) . T1: 399.33 (R3) . T2: 412.00 . R:R: 2.17
Confluence: Biggest gainer in the index at +4.85%. Bull all - close 378.78 above 20-EMA 368.39, 50-EMA 375.54 and 200-EMA 349.74. MACD turned bullish with histogram +1.13. RSI 56.1 leaves plenty of room. POC context: the 60-day POC at 384.49 is the problem - price closed below it and stalled at the day high of 380.36. This is deliberately a breakout entry, not a chase: do not buy the close, wait for 384.60 to clear on volume. Relative volume was only 0.79 on Friday, so the move needs confirmation.


3. AMD - LONG on continuation
Entry: 518.00 . Stop: 493.10 (1.10 ATR, under S2) . T1: 544.05 (R3) . T2: 572.00 . R:R: 1.05 to T1, 2.17 to T2
Confluence: Bull all with the 200-EMA far below at 379.36 - a 36% cushion. MACD histogram +6.51, one of the strongest in the index. RSI 58.0. Closed +2.49% on relative volume 1.03, the only large semi with above-average participation. POC context: above the 60-day POC at 506.41, which aligns closely with S1 504.63 to form a solid 504-506 support shelf. Wide ATR of 22.64 means size down accordingly.


4. META - LONG, momentum leader
Entry: 659.50 on a break of R1 . Stop: 634.70 (1.16 ATR, under S2) . T1: 677.49 (R3) . T2: 700.00 . R:R: 0.73 to T1, 1.63 to T2
Confluence: Highest RSI in the index at 67.2 and the largest MACD histogram at +9.88. Bull all, and notably it has reclaimed the 200-EMA at 619.09 from below - the 20-EMA at 602.53 and 50-EMA at 597.23 sit well beneath, so the stack is bullish but stretched. POC context: 8.6% above the 60-day POC at 596.50, which is the furthest extension from value of any Bull-all name here. That is the risk: the R:R to T1 is poor, so this only works as a breakout-and-run trade. It did not work on Friday - the 664.24 high was rejected back to 648.03.


5. COST - SHORT (the cleanest bearish setup)
Entry: 900.00 on a break of Friday low 900.75 . Stop: 921.00 (1.36 ATR) . T1: 875.00 . T2: 850.00 . R:R: 1.19 to T1, 2.38 to T2
Confluence: Bear all with the EMAs stacked correctly against price - close 904.77 below 20-EMA 929.93, below 50-EMA 943.36, below 200-EMA 958.44. RSI 35.5 and weakening. MACD histogram -4.86. Closed +0.26% on a 6.61-point range, the narrowest of the 40 - compression under resistance. POC context: 4% below the 60-day POC at 942.23, meaning there is a wall of accepted volume overhead and almost nothing beneath until the 52-week low at 844.06. Consumer staples with $100 oil and a hiking Fed is not where the bid is.


INTRADAY SETUPS


1. AAPL - Camarilla long, pivot bounce
Direction: Long . Entry: 331.40 at cam S1 / classic pivot confluence . Stop: 329.40 (below cam S3 329.54) . T1: 333.18 (cam R1) . T2: 335.00 (cam R3) . R:R: 0.89 to T1, 1.80 to T2
Reasoning: Camarilla S1 at 331.36 and the classic pivot at 331.60 sit within 0.24 points of each other - the tightest confluence in the index. AAPL is the strongest chart in the NAS100 (Bull all, RSI 62.8, just 3.6% off its 52-week high) and posted the highest relative volume of any mega-cap at 1.18. Standard cam range-bound long off S1.


2. MSFT - Camarilla range fade
Direction: Long . Entry: 495.05 at cam S1 . Stop: 493.80 (below cam S3 493.87) . T1: 496.22 (cam R1) . T2: 497.39 (cam R3) . R:R: 0.94 to T1, 1.87 to T2
Reasoning: Friday close 495.63 sits almost exactly on the classic pivot 495.73. The cam range S1 495.04 to R1 496.22 is only 1.18 points wide on a 6.39-point session range - classic contraction. Relative volume 0.66 and an ATR of 10.66 say this is a rangebound day until a catalyst. Bull all structure gives the long side the edge.


3. PANW - Camarilla breakdown
Direction: Short . Entry: 322.80 on a break of cam S4 322.90 . Stop: 331.00 . T1: 318.86 (S2) . T2: 310.66 (S3) . R:R: 0.48 to T1, 1.49 to T2
Reasoning: The only cam S4 breakdown candidate with a fundamental catalyst behind it. Worst performer in the index at -2.32%. Bear 20/50 - close 330.65 below 20-EMA 347.69 and 50-EMA 338.21. Below the 60-day POC at 339.92. Cam S4 breakdowns are trend-day signals; below 322.90 the next real volume shelf is S3 at 310.66.


4. MRVL - Camarilla breakout continuation
Direction: Long . Entry: 242.20 on a break of cam R4 242.11 . Stop: 235.00 (back inside the cam range) . T1: 246.11 (R2) . T2: 252.03 (R3) . R:R: 0.54 to T1, 1.36 to T2
Reasoning: +4.03% on the day with a Bull-all stack (20-EMA 224.29, 50-EMA 221.25, 200-EMA 172.51) and a bullish MACD. Cam R4 at 242.11 is the trend-day trigger. Caveat: relative volume was only 0.70 and price is below the 60-day POC at 244.37, which sits just above the R4 trigger - expect the first attempt to be sold. Wait for acceptance above 244.40 before pressing.


5. BKNG - pivot rejection short
Direction: Short . Entry: 174.00 at the classic pivot 174.08 . Stop: 177.00 (above Friday high 176.78) . T1: 171.37 (S1) . T2: 168.83 (S2) . R:R: 0.88 to T1, 1.72 to T2
Reasoning: Lowest RSI in the index at 30.0 with Bear-all alignment - 20-EMA 193.14, 50-EMA 192.42, 200-EMA 187.87 all far above price at 173.92. MACD histogram -4.52. Below the 60-day POC at 188.70 by 8%. Risk note: RSI 30 is the oversold threshold, so this is a short into potential exhaustion - take T1 and do not press for T2 without a fresh lower high.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5


AAPL 332.27 +1.75%
Cam: S4 326.81 . S3 329.54 . S1 331.36 || R1 333.18 . R3 335.00 . R4 337.73
Classic: S3 317.05 . S2 321.68 . S1 326.97 || P 331.60 || R1 336.89 . R2 341.52 . R3 346.81
EMAs: 20 319.03 . 50 314.05 . 200 287.96 | POC 310.01 | Prev H/L 336.22 / 326.30 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 226.65

MSFT 495.63 +0.65%
Cam: S4 492.12 . S3 493.87 . S1 495.04 || R1 496.22 . R3 497.39 . R4 499.14
Classic: S3 486.09 . S2 489.34 . S1 492.48 || P 495.73 || R1 498.87 . R2 502.12 . R3 505.26
EMAs: 20 491.24 . 50 465.44 . 200 440.67 | POC 425.59 | Prev H/L 498.97 / 492.58 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

NVDA 218.29 -0.03%
Cam: S4 216.17 . S3 217.23 . S1 217.94 || R1 218.64 . R3 219.35 . R4 220.41
Classic: S3 213.11 . S2 215.63 . S1 216.96 || P 219.48 || R1 220.81 . R2 223.33 . R3 224.66
EMAs: 20 219.92 . 50 214.95 . 200 198.63 | POC 210.13 | Prev H/L 222.00 / 218.15 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27

AMD 516.13 +2.49%
Cam: S4 505.29 . S3 510.71 . S1 514.32 || R1 517.94 . R3 521.55 . R4 526.97
Classic: S3 484.92 . S2 493.14 . S1 504.63 || P 512.85 || R1 524.34 . R2 532.56 . R3 544.05
EMAs: 20 487.08 . 50 484.40 . 200 379.36 | POC 506.41 | Prev H/L 521.06 / 501.35 | 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.85

QCOM 181.97 +2.88%
Cam: S4 176.62 . S3 179.30 . S1 181.08 || R1 182.86 . R3 184.64 . R4 187.32
Classic: S3 166.93 . S2 171.34 . S1 176.65 || P 181.06 || R1 186.37 . R2 190.78 . R3 196.09
EMAs: 20 169.57 . 50 171.68 . 200 170.66 | POC 179.55 | Prev H/L 185.46 / 175.74 | 52w H/L 259.92 / 121.99


BEARISH WARNINGS


1. Structural breakdown beneath a rising index. 19 of 40 components closed below both their 20 and 50-day EMAs, and 13 are below all three. Only 8 hold a full bullish stack. An index that rallies 1% while a third of its members are in full bearish alignment is being carried by a handful of names.

2. Confirmed death-cross territory. The following have the 20-EMA below the 50-EMA with price below both - the bearish EMA cascade: AVGO (370.29/380.02), COST (929.93/943.36), LIN (480.01/490.61), ISRG (369.98/380.92), SNPS (407.82/415.85), CDNS (310.73/328.23), MAR (343.47/354.26), ORLY (88.01/88.87), BKNG (193.14/192.42 - inverted but both far above price), AMAT (474.74/497.29), LRCX (307.51/312.99), KLAC (184.25/193.89). Twelve names in active bearish EMA cascade.

3. Twenty-four of forty on bearish MACD. Despite 31 of 40 closing green, the momentum picture did not improve. Worst histograms: MELI -11.02, REGN -9.14, INTU -6.25, ADBE -5.20, COST -4.86, DASH -4.76, BKNG -4.52, PANW -4.15.

4. Names approaching 52-week lows. COST is 7.2% above its 52-week low of 844.06. ORLY is 3.9% above 82.59. CDNS is 10.1% above 262.75. ISRG is 12.4% above 328.57. NFLX is 18.9% above 65.08 and sits 38.2% below its high. INTU at -54.4% from its high is the deepest drawdown in the index.

5. Volume did not confirm. Median relative volume across the 40 was roughly 0.80. Only four names exceeded 1.00. A one-percent index day on 80% of normal participation, into a Fed meeting with a 90% hike probability, is the definition of a low-conviction bounce.

6. Macro overhang. 10-year at 4.974%, 2-year at 4.65%, 30-year approaching 5.38% versus the June 2007 high of 5.40%, WTI at $100.05 after an 8% week, and record weekly outflows of $40.44bn from US large-cap funds per LSEG Lipper. None of that supports a sustained multiple expansion in high-duration tech.


EVENTS CALENDAR


Macro - the week ahead:
Wednesday 16 Sep - FOMC rate decision. Roughly 90% probability of a 25bp hike priced after Friday CPI. This is the single dominant risk event for the NAS100.
Wednesday 16 Sep - BCB policy announcement
Thursday 17 Sep - Bank of England policy announcement
Friday 18 Sep - Bank of Japan rate decision, hike expected. The yen is at a seven-month high against the dollar.
Also next week: September New York and Philadelphia Fed indices, August retail sales, industrial production, weekly jobless claims.

Component earnings:
No NAS100 constituent from the 40 tracked here is scheduled to report in the next two sessions. ADBE reported on 10 September - Q2 adjusted EPS $6.13 beat by $0.05, revenue +13% y/y to $6.76bn, but net new ARR fell roughly 38% y/y and the stock remains below all three EMAs. ORCL (not in this 40) reported on 10 September with cloud infrastructure revenue +121% to $7.4bn and a $664bn RPO backlog - that result is the direct driver of the semiconductor and memory strength described above, and is the readthrough to watch for MU, MRVL, AMD and ADI.

Sector catalysts:
Cybersecurity - Wedbush assumed coverage with a redistribution thesis: AI-native platforms win, standalone vulnerability management loses. PANW added to Best Ideas. This is why PANW, FTNT and CRWD were the only meaningful red in the index on a broad up day.
Energy - any move in Brent above $100 or further Strait of Hormuz disruption feeds straight into the PPI pipeline and the Fed path.


Report: 11 September 2026 22:55 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Thursday 10 September 2026
Data: Close 10 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,103.51 | Change: -318.04 (-1.08%) | Range: 29,038.22 - 29,250.41


Market Overview
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,103.51, down 318.04 points (-1.08%) - a fourth consecutive down day and the lowest close since 1 September. The index opened at 29,097.33, traded a tight 212-point range (29,038.22 - 29,250.41) and finished in the lower third of it. A weak close that leaves sellers in control into Friday.
Three things drove the tape: crude holding above 100 dollars pushed Treasury yields to multi-year highs, semiconductors were hit again on AI capex-peak concerns, and positioning turned defensive ahead of Friday's CPI print. The VIX rose 8.4% to 17.84, its highest close since late July, but still below the 20 panic threshold.
Breadth inside the 40 tracked NDX names was poor: 14 advancers, 26 decliners, with only 19 of 40 above their 60-day VWAP (POC). Semiconductors were the epicentre - the group averaged -2.62% with 9 of 10 names lower.
Bias: Bearish below 29,223 - the short-term trend is down, but the index holds well above its rising EMA200. Neutral-to-bearish into CPI.


Trend Structure
EMA stack (index): Close 29,103.51 | EMA20 29,345.60 | EMA50 29,213.77 | EMA200 27,570.86
The index is now below both EMA20 and EMA50 but comfortably above EMA200 - the classic Bear (below 20/50) configuration, meaning a correction inside an intact primary uptrend. EMA20 has rolled over and is converging on EMA50 from above; a cross there would be the first genuine medium-term warning. The index sits 5.6% above its rising EMA200 and 5.1% below the 52-week high of 30,660.60.
Structure: Lower highs from 29,655.73 (8 Sep) to 29,563.60 (9 Sep) to 29,250.41 (10 Sep), and lower lows from 29,400.70 to 29,334.40 to 29,038.22. A textbook three-day distribution sequence.
Phase: Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend undergoing a normal pullback. Nothing has broken - but nothing has stabilised either. The 29,000 round number below and the 29,213 EMA50 above now define the fight.


Momentum and Indicators
RSI(14): 46.1 - below the 50 midline. No bullish divergence: price made a lower low and RSI made a lower low with it, confirming the move. Not oversold, so there is room to fall.
MACD: 23.95 versus signal 49.42, histogram -25.47 and expanding negative. MACD crossed below its signal line on 9 September and downside momentum is accelerating. It remains above zero, so this is a momentum correction rather than a trend reversal.
Volume: Notable relative-volume readings: ADBE 1.69x (earnings day), AAPL 1.63x (accumulation), ISRG 1.51x, QCOM 1.41x. Crucially, the heavy chip losses came on below-average volume (MU 0.94x, AMD 0.88x, AMAT 0.68x) - selling without conviction, which is mildly encouraging for a bounce.
Volatility: VIX 17.84 (+8.4%), VIX RSI 60.6 and its MACD has just crossed positive. Fear is building but is nowhere near extreme.


Key Index Levels
Resistance
R1 29,223 - classic pivot R1, sitting on the EMA50 at 29,213. The level bulls must reclaim.
R2 29,343 - pivot R2, with EMA20 at 29,345. A daily close above here neutralises the whole pullback.
R3 29,435 - pivot R3 and the 9 Sep close of 29,421. Full recovery level.
Support
S1 29,011 - pivot S1 and the psychological 29,000 handle. First real test.
S2 28,919 - pivot S2, backed by the 27 August swing area.
S3 28,799 - pivot S3. Below this the pullback becomes a 6%+ drawdown.
Classic pivots: S2 28,918.52 | S1 29,011.02 | P 29,130.71 | R1 29,223.21 | R2 29,342.90
Camarilla: S4 28,986.81 | S3 29,045.16 || R3 29,161.86 | R4 29,220.21
Round numbers: 29,000 (critical), 28,500, 29,500, 30,000


Component Signals - All 40 Tracked NDX Names
AAPL 326.57 +3.56% | Bull (above all) | RSI 58.9 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -5.2% from 52w high | Above POC
MSFT 492.44 +0.16% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.0 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -11.1% from 52w high | Above POC
NVDA 218.36 -2.37% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -7.7% from 52w high | Above POC
AMZN 251.89 -0.20% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -12.3% from 52w high | Above POC
META 644.38 -1.42% | Bull (above all) | RSI 66.4 Strong | MACD Bull | -18.5% from 52w high | Above POC
GOOGL 332.60 +0.59% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.3 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -18.6% from 52w high | Below POC
AVGO 360.83 -0.97% | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.4 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -27.1% from 52w high | Below POC
TSLA 363.56 -1.16% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 53.7 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -27.1% from 52w high | Above POC
COST 902.38 -0.02% | Bear (below all) | RSI 34.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.7% from 52w high | Below POC
NFLX 76.01 -0.03% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -40.0% from 52w high | Above POC
AMD 503.60 -3.36% | Bull (above all) | RSI 55.1 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -13.9% from 52w high | Below POC
ADBE 248.83 -2.37% | Bear (below all) | RSI 40.2 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -32.9% from 52w high | Above POC
QCOM 176.88 +0.27% | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.6 Strong | MACD Bull | -31.9% from 52w high | Below POC
TMUS 177.16 -0.10% | Bear (below all) | RSI 43.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -27.5% from 52w high | Below POC
LIN 461.62 -1.08% | Bear (below all) | RSI 28.9 Oversold | MACD Bear | -15.8% from 52w high | Below POC
ISRG 360.46 +2.04% | Bear (below all) | RSI 42.6 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -40.3% from 52w high | Below POC
INTU 312.77 -0.37% | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.5 Weak | MACD Bear | -55.6% from 52w high | Above POC
CSCO 107.44 -1.82% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 37.2 Weak | MACD Bear | -17.6% from 52w high | Below POC
TXN 258.82 -1.06% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 42.5 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -22.5% from 52w high | Below POC
AMAT 454.01 -3.17% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 40.8 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -38.6% from 52w high | Below POC
BKNG 174.33 +0.52% | Bear (below all) | RSI 30.3 Weak | MACD Bear | -22.5% from 52w high | Below POC
PANW 338.49 +1.01% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.7 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -15.1% from 52w high | Below POC
MU 979.91 -4.66% | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.6 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -21.9% from 52w high | Above POC
LRCX 298.01 -5.65% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.1 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -32.0% from 52w high | Below POC
KLAC 177.18 -3.13% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.8 Neutral- | MACD Bull | -42.4% from 52w high | Below POC
ADI 361.25 -1.05% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 42.5 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -19.0% from 52w high | Below POC
REGN 793.26 -1.78% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.1 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -7.7% from 52w high | Above POC
SNPS 397.17 +1.00% | Bear (below all) | RSI 44.4 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -26.4% from 52w high | Below POC
CDNS 284.95 +0.12% | Bear (below all) | RSI 29.0 Oversold | MACD Bear | -31.6% from 52w high | Below POC
MELI 1,906.24 +1.59% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.8 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -25.2% from 52w high | Above POC
CRWD 208.86 +0.51% | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.1 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -10.7% from 52w high | Above POC
MAR 329.07 -0.74% | Bear (below all) | RSI 31.1 Weak | MACD Bear | -19.9% from 52w high | Below POC
ABNB 167.65 -1.17% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 41.0 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -13.3% from 52w high | Above POC
MRVL 226.96 -3.43% | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.9 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -31.2% from 52w high | Below POC
DASH 201.03 +1.92% | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 39.9 Weak | MACD Bear | -29.6% from 52w high | Above POC
FTNT 158.85 +1.04% | Bull (above all) | RSI 50.4 Neutral+ | MACD Bear | -8.6% from 52w high | Above POC
CEG 285.97 -2.70% | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 54.7 Neutral+ | MACD Bull | -30.7% from 52w high | Above POC
WDAY 185.09 -0.52% | Mixed (below 20, above 50/200) | RSI 49.0 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -25.9% from 52w high | Above POC
PYPL 53.31 +2.19% | Bear (below all) | RSI 41.3 Neutral- | MACD Bear | -32.7% from 52w high | Above POC
ORLY 85.51 -0.66% | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.3 Weak | MACD Bear | -21.3% from 52w high | Below POC
Summary: 9 Bull (above all EMAs) | 2 Bull (above 20/50) | 5 Mixed | 10 Bear (below 20/50) | 14 Bear (below all EMAs). Only 12 of 40 have MACD above signal. That is a market with very narrow leadership.


Sector Grouping
Mega-cap Tech (7) - average -0.12%
AAPL +3.56%, GOOGL +0.59%, MSFT +0.16%, AMZN -0.20%, TSLA -1.16%, META -1.42%, NVDA -2.37%. Six of seven trade above their POC - the mega-caps are where money is hiding. AAPL's 3.56% move on 1.63x volume was the best large-cap performance of the day and pulled the index off its low.
Semiconductors (10) - average -2.62%
The wreck of the day. LRCX -5.65%, MU -4.66%, MRVL -3.43%, AMD -3.36%, AMAT -3.17%, KLAC -3.13%, TXN -1.06%, ADI -1.05%, AVGO -0.97%, QCOM +0.27%. Only 1 of 10 above POC. Semi-cap equipment (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) is the weakest sub-group, all well below EMA20/50 and 32-42% off their highs.
Software and Cloud (9) - average -0.16%
FTNT +1.04%, PANW +1.01%, SNPS +1.00%, CDNS +0.12%, INTU -0.37%, WDAY -0.52%, CRWD +0.51%, CSCO -1.82%, ADBE -2.37%. Mixed, but the relative outperformance versus semis is notable. Only CRWD and FTNT hold a full bull EMA stack. ADBE fell into its post-close print.
Consumer and Internet (10) - average +0.35%
The day's best group. PYPL +2.19%, DASH +1.92%, MELI +1.59%, BKNG +0.52%, NFLX -0.03%, COST -0.02%, TMUS -0.10%, ORLY -0.66%, MAR -0.74%, ABNB -1.17%. The caveat matters: zero of the ten carries a bullish EMA stack. This was oversold names bouncing, not leadership.
Healthcare and Biotech (2) - average +0.13%
ISRG +2.04% on 1.51x volume, the strongest reversal candle of the day off its 328.57 base, though still 40.3% below its high. REGN -1.78%, holding above EMA50 and EMA200.
Industrial and Other (2) - average -1.89%
CEG -2.70% lost its EMA200 (285.97 versus 286.97) - a fresh long-term trend break in the power/AI-infrastructure theme. LIN -1.08% with RSI at 28.9, the most oversold name in the sample and 15.8% off its high.


Top Swing Setups
1. AAPL - LONG (highest conviction)
Entry: 327.00 (break of the 326.74 day high) | Stop: 317.10 (1.25 ATR, below EMA20 317.64) | T1: 337.00 | T2: 344.50 | R:R: 1.8
Confluence: The only mega-cap with a full bullish EMA stack (326.57 above 317.64 / 313.31 / 287.51), a fresh MACD bull cross (2.36 versus 1.57), RSI 58.9 with room above, and 1.63x relative volume on a 3.56% up day. It closed 5.5% above its 60-day POC of 309.53, so value sits well below and acts as a floor. T2 targets the 52-week high at 344.57.
2. META - LONG
Entry: 646.50 (above Camarilla R1 646.34) | Stop: 626.00 (below Camarilla S4 632.63 and pivot S2 628.65) | T1: 671.40 | T2: 690.00 | R:R: 2.1
Confluence: Strongest RSI in the index at 66.4 and the widest bullish MACD spread anywhere (11.60 versus signal 1.67). It has reclaimed EMA200 at 618.80 and holds 644.38 above all three EMAs, 8.2% above its POC of 595.68. Today's -1.42% was profit-taking inside a 21.48 ATR, not distribution. Risk: still 18.5% below its 52-week high, so treat it as a recovery trade, not a breakout.
3. QCOM - LONG (POC reclaim)
Entry: 180.60 (reclaim of the 60-day POC at 180.44) | Stop: 171.00 (day low) | T1: 190.00 | T2: 196.00 | R:R: 1.6
Confluence: The only green semiconductor on a day the group lost 2.62%, on 1.41x volume with a wide 11.40 range. RSI 61.6 is the second strongest in the index and MACD has just crossed bullish (1.73 versus -0.31). Price holds all three EMAs (168.27 / 171.27 / 170.55) which are tightly coiled - a classic squeeze base. Only take it above 180.44; below that the POC is a ceiling, not a floor.
4. COST - SHORT
Entry: 898.50 (break of the 899.00 day low) | Stop: 918.60 (1.25 ATR) | T1: 870.00 | T2: 850.00 | R:R: 2.4
Confluence: Full bear stack - 902.38 below EMA20 932.57, EMA50 944.94 and EMA200 958.98, with EMA20 already under EMA50. MACD -11.04 versus signal -5.76 and widening. RSI 34.1 and falling. It trades 4.3% below its POC of 943.24 and only 6.9% above the 52-week low at 844.06. Caveat: RSI in the low 30s means a bounce is possible - respect the stop.
5. MAR - SHORT
Entry: 328.50 (break of the 328.60 day low) | Stop: 338.00 (1.25 ATR) | T1: 316.00 | T2: 308.00 | R:R: 2.2
Confluence: Bear stack (329.07 under 344.40 / 355.06 / 342.41), EMA20 below EMA50, MACD -8.58 under signal -6.85, RSI 31.1, and 9.5% below its POC of 363.53. Consumer travel has been the quiet underperformer all quarter.


Intraday Setups for Friday
1. AAPL - Camarilla breakout LONG
Entry: 329.45 (above Camarilla R3 329.38) | Stop: 327.40 | T1: 332.20 (cam R4) | T2: 333.50 (pivot R2) | Direction: Long | R:R: 2.0
Reasoning: Textbook Camarilla long-breakout condition - the close at 326.57 sits between S3 and R3, and a clean push through R3 targets R4. Backed by the strongest daily momentum in the index. Invalidated below the 323.27 pivot.
2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade (two-sided)
Entry: Sell 219.40 (cam R3) or Buy 217.32 (cam S3) | Stop: 220.50 short, 216.25 long | T1: 218.85 pivot | T2: Opposite Camarilla band | Direction: Both | R:R: 1.5
Reasoning: NVDA closed 218.36 inside a narrow 217.32 to 219.40 Camarilla band, having traded only a 3.79-point range against a 7.10 ATR. That is heavy compression, which favours fading the extremes until the band breaks. EMA20 at 220.09 caps rallies, so the short leg is the better one.
3. AMZN - Camarilla range fade
Entry: Sell 252.87 (cam R3) or Buy 250.91 (cam S3) | Stop: 253.90 short, 249.90 long | T1: 251.54 pivot | T2: 249.93 short, 253.50 long | Direction: Both, short-biased | R:R: 1.5
Reasoning: AMZN closed 251.89, essentially on its pivot, after a 3.57-point range against a 6.26 ATR. The Bear (below 20/50) trend makes the short side the higher-probability leg, with POC 249.80 the magnet below.
4. MU - Camarilla breakdown SHORT
Entry: 972.50 (below cam S3 972.90) | Stop: 985.00 (above the 984.14 pivot) | T1: 965.89 (cam S4) | T2: 958.64 (pivot S2) | Direction: Short | R:R: 1.1
Reasoning: MU fell 4.66% and closed at 979.91, below its pivot, with a 53.78 ATR - by far the most volatile name in the sample. The S3 breakdown is the momentum-continuation trade. It still holds a bullish EMA stack (959.31 / 930.36 / 678.31), so this is a counter-trend intraday scalp only. Take T1 and do not marry it.
5. MSFT - classic pivot bounce LONG
Entry: 487.50 (pivot S1 487.45, EMA20 490.78 just above) | Stop: 482.40 (pivot S2) | T1: 490.99 (pivot) | T2: 495.97 (pivot R1) | Direction: Long | R:R: 1.7
Reasoning: MSFT held green (+0.16%) in a red tape, sits above all three EMAs (490.78 / 464.20 / 440.12) and 16% above its POC of 424.66. A morning flush into S1 and that EMA20 shelf is the cleanest defensive long location in the mega-caps.


Key Levels Dashboard - Top 5 Weightings
AAPL - 326.57
Cam: S4 320.94 | S3 323.76 | S1 325.63 || R1 327.51 | R3 329.38 | R4 332.20
Classic: S3 309.58 | S2 313.04 | S1 319.81 | P 323.27 | R1 330.04 | R2 333.50 | R3 340.27
EMAs: 20 317.64 | 50 313.31 | 200 287.51 | POC 309.53 | Prev H/L 326.74 / 316.51 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 225.95
MSFT - 492.44
Cam: S4 487.75 | S3 490.10 | S1 491.66 || R1 493.22 | R3 494.78 | R4 497.13
Classic: S3 478.93 | S2 482.47 | S1 487.45 | P 490.99 | R1 495.97 | R2 499.51 | R3 504.49
EMAs: 20 490.78 | 50 464.20 | 200 440.12 | POC 424.66 | Prev H/L 494.52 / 486.00 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20
NVDA - 218.36
Cam: S4 216.28 | S3 217.32 | S1 218.01 || R1 218.71 | R3 219.40 | R4 220.44
Classic: S3 212.92 | S2 215.06 | S1 216.71 | P 218.85 | R1 220.50 | R2 222.64 | R3 224.29
EMAs: 20 220.09 | 50 214.81 | 200 198.44 | POC 210.00 | Prev H/L 220.99 / 217.20 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.27
AMZN - 251.89
Cam: S4 249.93 | S3 250.91 | S1 251.56 || R1 252.22 | R3 252.87 | R4 253.85
Classic: S3 246.36 | S2 247.97 | S1 249.93 | P 251.54 | R1 253.50 | R2 255.11 | R3 257.07
EMAs: 20 258.04 | 50 255.96 | 200 242.56 | POC 249.80 | Prev H/L 253.15 / 249.58 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00
META - 644.38
Cam: S4 632.63 | S3 638.51 | S1 642.42 || R1 646.34 | R3 650.25 | R4 656.13
Classic: S3 615.15 | S2 628.65 | S1 636.51 | P 650.01 | R1 657.87 | R2 671.37 | R3 679.23
EMAs: 20 597.74 | 50 595.15 | 200 618.80 | POC 595.68 | Prev H/L 663.50 / 642.14 | 52w H/L 790.80 / 520.26


Bearish Warnings
1. Bearish EMA crosses (EMA20 below EMA50) in 18 of 40 names: LRCX, KLAC, ADI, SNPS, CDNS, MAR, ORLY, GOOGL, AVGO, TSLA, COST, QCOM, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, CSCO, TXN, AMAT. That is 45% of the sample in a medium-term bearish moving-average configuration.
2. MACD below signal in 28 of 40 names. Only twelve have positive momentum: AAPL, META, TSLA, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, MRVL and CEG - and several of those are early bottoming crosses in beaten-down semis rather than genuine strength.
3. Deep drawdowns from 52-week highs: INTU -55.6%, KLAC -42.4%, ISRG -40.3%, NFLX -40.0%, AMAT -38.6%, ADBE -32.9%, PYPL -32.7%, LRCX -32.0%, QCOM -31.9%, CDNS -31.6%, MRVL -31.2%, CEG -30.7%. The index is only 5.1% off its high while a third of these names are in bear markets - index strength is being carried by very few shoulders.
4. Names within 10% of their 52-week low: ORLY (3.5% above), COST (6.9%), TMUS (6.9%), CDNS (8.4%), SNPS (8.5%), ISRG (9.7%).
5. Deeply oversold, watch for capitulation: LIN RSI 28.9, CDNS 29.0, BKNG 30.3, MAR 31.1, COST 34.1. Oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not a buy signal - but it does raise short-squeeze risk on any soft CPI print.
6. CEG has lost its EMA200 (285.97 versus 286.97) on a 2.70% decline - a fresh long-term trend break in the power and AI-infrastructure theme.
7. No bullish RSI divergences anywhere in the sample. Price weakness is fully confirmed by momentum.


Events Calendar
Tonight - after the US close (10 September)
ADBE - Q3 FY2026 results reported after the bell. EPS 6.13 versus 5.84 expected, a 4.97% beat. ADBE closed -2.37% at 248.83 on 1.69x volume ahead of the print, sits below all three EMAs and is 32.9% off its high. The reaction gap will set the tone for the software group on Friday.
ORCL - Q1 FY2027 results after the close, call at 17:00 ET. Not an NDX component, but the most important single read-through for AI capex sentiment. A soft RPO number would hit AVGO, MU, AMD and the semi-cap names hardest.
Friday 11 September
13:30 UK / 08:30 ET - US CPI (August). The dominant event. With crude above 100 dollars and Treasury yields at multi-year highs, a hot headline print is the main downside risk into the weekend. It is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets.
Next week
Tuesday to Wednesday 15-16 September - FOMC meeting. Decision Wednesday 19:00 UK / 14:00 ET with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. The target range is currently 3.50-3.75%, unchanged since December 2025.
Later in September
Wednesday 30 September - MU (Micron) Q4 results, after the close. After today's 4.66% fall and the memory sector's recent volatility, this is the highest-risk single-name event on the NDX calendar.
No other tracked NDX component reports in the next two sessions.


Summary
Four down days, a lost EMA50, negative MACD, RSI below 50, breadth of 14 up against 26 down, and 45% of tracked names in a bearish EMA cross. The bear case is well supported. What it is not, yet, is a trend change: the index sits 5.6% above a rising EMA200, MACD is still above zero, VIX is only 17.84, and the mega-caps - led by AAPL - are absorbing the selling rather than leading it.
The honest read is a correction inside an uptrend, driven by two things the tape cannot control: oil above 100 dollars and the yield pressure that follows. Friday's CPI resolves it one way or the other.
Levels that decide it: reclaim 29,223 (EMA50 and pivot R1) and the pullback is over. Lose 29,000 and the next real shelf is 28,799.
Playbook: Stay selective and long only what still works - AAPL, META, MSFT, and QCOM on a POC reclaim. Avoid semi-cap equipment entirely until AMAT, LRCX and KLAC can close back above their EMA20s. Size down into CPI: a 212-point index range is unusually tight and typically resolves with an outsized move.


Report: 10 September 2026 22:00 GMT | Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.