Daily Market Briefing

Market Recap

Thursday's session delivered broad-based gains across US indices as optimism built ahead of the August employment data. The S&P 500 rose 1.06% to close at 7,747.71, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 1.16% advance to 29,482.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.18% to 53,686.11, marking its fourth consecutive positive session. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.70% to 10,831.52, holding above the psychologically important 10,800 level as energy stocks benefited from rising oil prices.

Key Movers & Themes

Tech Leads the Charge: Technology stocks powered the rally, with CrowdStrike surging 5.68% and Tesla jumping 5.42% on Thursday. Meta Platforms added 3.01% while Nvidia climbed 1.78%. The sector's strength came despite Adobe naming Anil Chakravarthy as its new CEO to replace Shantanu Narayen — news that sent the stock up 2.13% initially, though questions remain about leadership transitions at the software giant.

Retail Stumbles: Not all sectors participated in the rally. Lululemon plunged 15% on disappointing earnings and a weak outlook, as the yoga-wear maker struggles with customers souring on form-fitting leggings. The company is now betting on "away from body" pants to revive growth, but investors weren't convinced by the pivot.

Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risk: Brent crude spiked 5.69% to $95.64 as the EU joined US sanctions on Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated. WTI oil rose 1.59% to $91.65. The moves come as Argentina's Javier Milei threatened to sanction oil firms while reiterating claims on the Falklands, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to energy markets.

The Big Question

Has the inflation genie escaped the bottle? Global bond yields have surged as investors assess whether rising debt, tariffs, defense spending and energy shocks could keep inflation higher for longer. The bond market turbulence has already begun affecting UK consumer finances, with households warned that gas price spikes could pile fresh pressure on energy bills due to low storage levels. Yet Fed Governor Waller indicated he will support holding rates steady at September's meeting, expressing confidence in current inflation trends — a stance that contrasts with the bond market's alarm bells. Today's jobs data will help answer which view is correct.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US Non Farm Payrolls (Aug): Forecast 56k vs -23k previous. This is the headline event. Economists see variables that could hold back the number after a jobless summer, but any surprise could trigger volatility across all asset classes.
• 12:30 GMT — US Unemployment Rate (Aug): Expected to hold at 4.1%. A tick higher would reinforce concerns about labour market softening.
• 12:30 GMT — US Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug): Forecast 0.3% vs 0.1% previous. Wage growth matters as much as the headline jobs number for Fed policy.
• 09:00 GMT — Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (Jul): Forecast 0.3% vs -0.3% previous. A rebound here would support the euro.
• 08:30 GMT — UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug): Forecast 45.5 vs 44.7 previous. Still in contraction territory, but any improvement is welcome.

Technical Levels to Watch

The breadth picture is constructive heading into payrolls. Among FTSE 100 constituents, 8 stocks are in bullish EMA trends (price above EMA20 above EMA50) versus 6 in bearish alignment. For Dow components, 5 are bullish versus 9 bearish. RSI readings show no extreme overbought or oversold conditions, with most names in the 50-65 range — healthy for continuation. MACD signals are mixed but tilting bullish, with 8 Dow stocks showing bullish crossovers versus 12 bearish. The key level today is NVDA's 230.96 resistance — a break above on strong jobs data could trigger further tech sector momentum.

Commodities & Currencies

Brent's 5.69% surge dominated commodity markets as EU sanctions on Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions fuelled supply concerns. Silver jumped 4.06% in sympathy with gold's safe-haven bid, while Bitcoin rallied 4.76% to $80,983 as risk appetite returned. The yen weakened 1.63% against the dollar as Japanese investors rotated into higher-yielding assets. Cable held steady at 1.3536, treading water ahead of the jobs data that could reshape the Fed's rate path.

Trading Outlook

Bullish momentum into the payrolls print, but today's 12:30 GMT release is a binary event that could flip sentiment in seconds. A strong jobs number (above 100k) with wage growth would confirm the soft-landing narrative and support equities, but could also reignite inflation fears and pressure bonds further. The key level to watch is S&P 500 at 7,771 — Thursday's five-day high. A break above on strong data opens the door to 7,850. Conversely, a weak print (below 30k) would raise recession concerns and could trigger a swift reversal. Manage risk accordingly — this is not a day to be caught offsides.