Daily Market Briefing

Market Recap

US indices closed Thursday in positive territory, shrugging off weaker economic data and geopolitical noise. The S&P 500 added 1.02% to 7,209.01, while the Dow Jones surged 1.62% to 49,652.14 — its strongest single-day gain in weeks. The NASDAQ 100 climbed 0.98% to 27,452.12, buoyed by Apple's blowout earnings report showing 17% revenue growth despite iPhone sales falling short. Intel's extraordinary April performance — the chipmaker's best month in 55 years on the Nasdaq — added to the tech optimism. The FTSE 100 jumped 1.62% to 10,378.82, lifted by banks and miners, though the Bank of England's warning that rates could rise as the Iran war fuels inflation tempered enthusiasm.

Key Movers & Themes

Apple's Farewell Rally: Apple reported 17% revenue growth, topping estimates on booming iPhone and Mac demand, even as iPhone sales came up short. CEO Tim Cook is preparing to bow out after 15 years at the helm, handing over to John Ternus. The results sent ripples through tech, with Alphabet adding a record $421 billion to its market cap as massive cloud growth and AI momentum propelled shares. Veeva Systems soared on news it will join the S&P 500, while Western Digital slid despite beating earnings — investors panned upbeat results after massive one-year rallies in the memory trade.

Oil's Ceasefire Slide: Brent crude tumbled 5.89% to $111.08 as the White House confirmed an Iran ceasefire halts the 60-day war deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. WTI fell 1.56% to $105.21. The pullback eased immediate supply fears, but fertiliser giant Yara warned the conflict still puts 10 billion meals a week at risk due to shortages that could reduce crop yields and push food prices higher. Natural gas surged 9.25% to $2.79, while gold edged up 0.17% to $4,622.70 after cementing its worst two-month decline in history.

Inflation vs Growth Tug-of-War: Core inflation hit 3.2% in March as first-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 2%, creating fresh challenges for the Fed. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but signalled rates could rise as the Iran war fuels inflation. Meanwhile, mortgage rates increased to 6.3%, yet home buyers aren't scared away — the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains lower than a year ago. Trump signed DHS funding legislation, ending a shutdown for most of the agency including TSA.

The Big Question

Can manufacturing data break the inflation stalemate? Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 53 vs 52.7 prior) is the day's marquee event. A strong print would reinforce the Fed's cautious stance and keep rate cut hopes on ice, while a miss could revive dovish bets. The employment component (forecast 49 vs 48.7) matters just as much — if it stays below 50, it signals contraction in factory hiring despite resilient headline activity. With core PCE at 3.2% and oil still elevated, the Fed has little room to ease unless growth data cracks convincingly.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 14:00 GMT — US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Forecast 53 vs 52.7 prior. The headline event. A beat keeps the Fed hawkish; a miss revives rate cut chatter.
• 14:00 GMT — US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr): Forecast 49 vs 48.7 prior. Still in contraction territory — watch for any move above 50.
• 08:30 GMT — UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar): Forecast £1.8bn vs £1.935bn prior. Slowing credit growth would signal consumer caution.
• 08:30 GMT — UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar): Forecast 60k vs 62.58k prior. Housing market cooling despite rate hold.
• 06:00 GMT — UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Apr): Actual 0.4% vs forecast -0.3%, previous 0.9%. Surprise uptick suggests resilience.

Technical Levels to Watch

The 10,400 level on the FTSE is doing the heavy lifting as resistance after yesterday's rally — a break above opens 10,462.50 (5-day high). Breadth is mixed: 8 of 20 FTSE stocks are bullish on EMAs (price above EMA20 above EMA50), while 7 are bearish. No stocks are oversold, but STAN and BNZL are pushing into strong territory with RSI above 64. On the Dow side, 13 of 30 stocks are bullish on EMAs, with CAT, AMZN, CSCO and UNH showing overbought RSI readings above 70. MACD signals tilt bearish with 17 of 20 FTSE stocks showing bearish crossovers, though 18 of 30 Dow stocks show bullish crossovers — suggesting US momentum is stronger than UK.

Commodities & Currencies

Brent's 5.89% slide dominated commodity action as ceasefire talk unwound war premium, while natural gas surged 9.25% on supply concerns. Silver jumped 4.11% to $74.51, outpacing gold's modest 0.17% gain — a sign of industrial demand optimism. Cable climbed 0.55% to 1.3589 despite BoE rate rise warnings, while USD/JPY fell 1.81% to 157.28 as yen strength returned. Bitcoin added 1.81% to $77,144.81, tracking tech sector optimism.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish into the ISM print at 14:00 GMT. The FTSE faces resistance at 10,400 — a break above on strong manufacturing data could target 10,462.50, while a miss flips sentiment and brings 10,300 support into play. US futures are steady, but watch for volatility around the employment component. The catalyst that flips the script? A sub-50 ISM employment reading would revive recession fears and trigger rate cut bets, sending bonds higher and equities lower. Until then, the path of least resistance is sideways with an upward bias. Manage risk around the 14:00 GMT release — it's the only number that matters today.