Daily Market Briefing

Market Recap

US equity markets extended their losing streak into a third consecutive week, with the S&P 500 closing Friday at its lowest level of the year at 6,740.02 (-1.60% from prior close). The Dow Jones shed 1.99% to 46,558.47, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.06% to 24,380.73. The FTSE 100 held relatively steady at 10,261.15, down just 0.23%. Oil prices dominated headlines as WTI crude surged 13.82% to $99.31 and Brent climbed 9.00% to $100.26 following US strikes on Iran's critical Kharg Island oil infrastructure.

Key Movers & Themes

• Energy shock escalation: Trump's decision to order strikes on Kharg Island — one of the world's most critical oil hubs handling the majority of Iran's crude exports — marks a major escalation in the US-Iran conflict, according to JPMorgan. Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran's oil export facilities, keeping crude prices elevated.
• Stagflation fears resurface: The oil shock is stoking fears of 1970s-style stagflation, with some investors drawing historical comparisons as fuel prices soar. Fourth-quarter US GDP was revised down to just 0.7% growth, while January core inflation came in at 3.1%, raising questions about whether the Fed's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut.
• Safe-haven flows: Gold declined 2.92% to $5,016.50 and silver fell 6.13% to $79.85 as investors rotated into energy and cash positions. Bitcoin bucked the trend, rising 4.70% to $73,804.15 [Live Market Data].

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar): Forecast 3.8 vs Previous 7.1. Watch for signs of manufacturing weakness amid elevated energy costs.
• 13:15 GMT — US Industrial Production MoM (Feb): Forecast +0.2% vs Previous +0.7%. Slowdown expected as higher input costs weigh on output.
• 14:00 GMT — US NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar): Forecast 37 vs Previous 36. Marginal improvement expected but sentiment remains depressed.

Technical Levels to Watch

Commodities & Currencies

Energy markets are experiencing extreme volatility as Trump's strikes on Iran's Kharg Island — which handles the majority of Iranian crude exports — push oil prices back toward $100. Individual investors poured $1 billion into a popular oil fund over just 9 days, while an S&P 500 ETF shed $12.6 billion, signalling a sharp rotation into energy exposure. The dollar strengthened across the board (USD/JPY +0.91%) as safe-haven flows intensified, while precious metals sold off sharply with silver down 6.13% and gold declining 2.92%. UK PM Starmer and President Trump discussed the urgent need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid disruption to global shipping, while China talked up its oil sufficiency as Trump seeks Beijing's help securing the critical energy route. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Paris to pave the way for a late-March summit, though Trump has signalled a possible delay.

Trading Outlook

Expect heightened volatility as oil prices hover near $100 and systematic funds are positioned to cut equity exposure, with options traders signalling rising panic. The key risk is further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz — any disruption to the 20% of global oil supply that transits through the strait would send crude sharply higher and equities lower, while a diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp reversal in both markets.