Daily Market Briefing

Market Recap

Thursday's session delivered a relief rally built on hope rather than evidence. The S&P 500 added 42 points to close at 6,824.66, while the Dow Jones gained 0.58% to 48,185.80. Tech led the charge — the Nasdaq 100 pushed through 25,000 for the first time this week, closing at 25,082.09. But scratch beneath the surface and the picture gets murkier. Oil jumped despite ceasefire headlines, with WTI up 4.48% to $98.64 after Iran's strikes on Saudi production facilities slashed the kingdom's output. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.05% to 10,603.48 as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "fed up" with Trump and Putin affecting UK energy costs. Sterling rallied 1.77% to $1.3419 as traders positioned for today's inflation print.

Key Movers & Themes

Oil's Reality Check: The ceasefire may be signed, but tankers aren't moving. BBC Verify analysis shows only a handful of vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the truce, and Trump warned Iran to "stop now" if it was charging tolls for transit. Iran's attacks on Saudi pipeline and production facilities mean the supply crunch will persist even if shipping resumes. Brent crude climbed 2.22% to $96.85, and UK farmers are warning the ceasefire came too late to prevent higher food costs hitting shelves by October.

Big Tech Under Pressure: The Trump administration is clashing with Brussels as EU fines against US tech companies have topped $7 billion over two years. Meta released its long-awaited AI model Muse Spark, but the question remains whether it can monetize the technology. Meanwhile, OpenAI paused its UK data centre deal over energy costs and regulation — a blow to Britain's AI ambitions.

Fed Chair Nomination Hits Snag: Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing as Federal Reserve chair has been delayed after Senator Thom Tillis raised concerns over a probe into current chair Jerome Powell. The political wrangling adds uncertainty at a time when inflation data is about to test the Fed's narrative.

The Big Question

Has the ceasefire rally pushed stocks too high, too quickly? Bulls argue the worst-case scenario is off the table and earnings season could deliver positive surprises. Bears counter that market timers are too optimistic about the truce holding, shipping remains paralyzed, and inflation data today could shatter the dovish Fed expectations priced into equities. With the S&P 500 up 5.4% from its 5-day low, the next 48 hours will reveal whether this was a durable bottom or a dead-cat bounce.

Economic Calendar — What to Watch Today

• 12:30 GMT — US Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mar): Forecast 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. This is the number that matters. A hotter-than-expected print will reignite Fed tightening fears and could reverse Thursday's gains.
• 12:30 GMT — US Inflation Rate YoY (Mar): Forecast 3.3% vs 2.4% prior. The headline rate is expected to jump on energy costs, but core inflation is what the Fed watches.
• 14:00 GMT — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Apr): Forecast 52 vs 53.3 prior. Sentiment has been battered by the Iran conflict — a deeper slide could weigh on consumer discretionary stocks.
• 14:00 GMT — Factory Orders MoM (Feb): Forecast -0.2% vs 0.1% prior. Secondary data, but any surprise could move industrials.

The inflation data at 12:30 GMT is the main event. If core CPI comes in at or above 0.3%, expect volatility across rates, equities, and the dollar.

Technical Levels to Watch

The S&P 500's 6,835 resistance (the 5-day high) is the line in the sand today. A break above on strong inflation data would be technically significant, but a rejection could see a fast move back toward 6,780 support. For the FTSE, 10,550 is the level doing the heavy lifting — lose it and 10,400 comes into play quickly.

Commodities & Currencies

Silver stole the show with a 6% surge to $76.14, outperforming gold as investors questioned the yellow metal's role in portfolios after five weeks of wild swings. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest another metal is set to outperform, though gold's conventional risk management appeal has been tested. Oil's 4.48% jump reflects the reality that Saudi production cuts will compound Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Sterling's 1.77% rally came as the dollar weakened ahead of inflation data, while natural gas fell 5.23% on milder weather forecasts.

Trading Outlook

Neutral to cautiously bullish into the US inflation data, but ready to pivot fast. If core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, expect a sharp reversal in equities and a dollar rally. The one catalyst that flips the script: a softer-than-expected inflation number that revives Fed cut hopes and sends the S&P toward 6,900. Until 12:30 GMT, trade small and keep stops tight — this market is coiled for a big move in either direction.