NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 - DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - MONDAY 24 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 24 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,023.18 | Change: -285.68 (-0.97%) | Range: 28,875.96 - 29,151.97


MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 closed at 29,023.18, down -285.68 points (-0.97%), opening at 29,094.72 and trading a 276-point range between 28,875.96 and 29,151.97. The close came in the lower third of the day's range and beneath the open - a weak finish rather than a panic one.

Volume was 1.13bn shares against a 70-session average of 1.41bn, roughly 80% of normal. This was a low-conviction drift lower, not distribution.

What drove it: the entire semiconductor complex was sold. All eleven NAS100 chip names closed red - MU -5.83%, AMD -3.49%, MRVL -3.30%, NVDA -2.92% and AVGO -2.63% the worst of them. Memory names were hit after another Chinese memory-chip producer filed for a Shanghai listing, and NVDA extended its losing run into a seventh straight session as positioning was cut ahead of Wednesday's results.

Underneath that, money clearly rotated rather than left. Nine of the ten Consumer / Internet names closed higher - COST +2.50%, DASH +2.49%, BKNG +1.78%, ORLY +1.76% and ABNB +1.55%. Breadth across the 40 was a dead heat: 18 up, 22 down.

VIX closed at 15.13 - no fear priced in whatsoever, which is itself worth noting into an event-heavy week.

Bias: cautious / neutral-to-bearish below 29,127. The index is under both its 20 and 50 EMA with a fresh MACD sell signal, but sitting on the daily pivot with a long-term uptrend intact. This is a market waiting for Wednesday.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (daily): EMA20 29,127.29 | EMA50 29,388.75 | EMA200 27,117.27

Close 29,023.18 sits below the EMA20 (-0.36%) and below the EMA50 (-1.24%) but well above the EMA200 (+7.03%). Under the strict classification that is BEAR (below 20/50) - a short-term downtrend inside an intact long-term uptrend.

The EMA20 has crossed beneath the EMA50, which is the defining feature of the current tape. That is a bearish near-term signal, but with the EMA200 more than 1,900 points below, this remains a pullback in a bull market rather than a trend change.

Structure: the index has printed lower highs since the 30,762 swing peak and has now given back 5.6% from that level. Five of the last six sessions have closed lower, with the 30,000 handle rejected decisively. Sequence of closes: 29,995 - 29,491 - 29,426 - 29,213 - 29,309 - 29,023.

Phase: corrective / consolidation within a primary uptrend. Bulls need a reclaim of 29,127 then 29,389 to argue the pullback is over. Bears need a daily close under 28,876 to open the next leg.


MOMENTUM AND VOLUME
RSI(14): 46.31 - mid-range and drifting, neither oversold nor overbought. There is no bullish divergence in place: RSI has been making lower highs alongside price since the highs, which is confirmation of the pullback rather than a warning of reversal. The 40 level is the line that matters - a break below it would signal the correction is deepening.

MACD: 90.81, Signal 127.70, Histogram -36.89 - the MACD line has crossed below its signal line and the histogram is expanding negative. Both lines remain above zero, so this is a momentum deceleration signal, not a trend reversal signal. A move of the MACD line below zero would be the more serious tell.

Volume: 1.13bn versus 1.41bn average. Selling on light volume is the single most constructive thing about today's tape. There is no evidence of institutional distribution - this looks like an absence of buyers into event risk rather than active supply.

Component momentum: only 18 of 40 have RSI above 50 and only 18 of 40 have a bullish MACD. 20 of 40 closed below their 60-day VWAP POC. Internals are neutral at best.


KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,127 - EMA20, the first line the bulls must reclaim
R2 29,158 - today's high and classic pivot R1, immediate overhead supply
R3 29,389 - EMA50, the level that defines whether this pullback ends

Support
S1 29,017 - daily pivot, price closed almost exactly on it
S2 28,876 - today's low and classic pivot S1, the make-or-break level
S3 28,741 - classic pivot S2, next measured downside shelf

Classic pivots: S2 28,741.03 | S1 28,882.11 | P 29,017.04 | R1 29,158.12 | R2 29,293.05

Camarilla: S4 28,871.38 | S3 28,947.28 | S1 28,997.88 || R1 29,048.48 | R3 29,099.08 | R4 29,174.99

Round numbers: 29,000 (immediately below, psychological pivot), 28,500, 30,000 (rejected, now major overhead).


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend classification is strict close-versus-EMA. RSI is 14-period. POC is the 60-day VWAP point of control.

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 310.34 (+0.32%) | MIXED (below 20, above 50, above 200) | RSI 48.2 | MACD bear | -9.9% off 52wH | above POC
MSFT 487.31 (+0.84%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 64.0 | MACD bear | -12.0% off 52wH | above POC
AMZN 262.07 (+1.33%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 52.5 | MACD bear | -8.8% off 52wH | above POC
GOOGL 348.06 (+0.94%) | MIXED (above 20, below 50, above 200) | RSI 49.5 | MACD bear | -14.8% off 52wH | below POC
META 559.02 (+1.66%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 42.3 | MACD bear | -29.3% off 52wH | below POC
TSLA 349.03 (-3.81%) | MIXED (above 20, below 50, below 200) | RSI 51.4 | MACD bull | -30.0% off 52wH | below POC

Semiconductors
NVDA 208.48 (-2.92%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 44.6 | MACD bear | -11.9% off 52wH | above POC
AVGO 358.76 (-2.63%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 35.4 | MACD bear | -27.5% off 52wH | below POC
AMD 456.75 (-3.49%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 42.5 | MACD bear | -21.9% off 52wH | below POC
QCOM 158.53 (-1.38%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 41.5 | MACD bull | -39.0% off 52wH | below POC
TXN 258.94 (-2.05%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 36.2 | MACD bear | -22.5% off 52wH | below POC
AMAT 484.19 (-1.65%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 41.7 | MACD bear | -34.5% off 52wH | below POC
MU 910.43 (-5.83%) | MIXED (below 20, above 50, above 200) | RSI 48.5 | MACD bull | -27.5% off 52wH | below POC
LRCX 310.17 (-1.22%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 47.2 | MACD bull | -29.3% off 52wH | below POC
KLAC 181.57 (-1.32%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 38.7 | MACD bear | -40.9% off 52wH | below POC
ADI 371.17 (-0.51%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 44.3 | MACD bear | -16.8% off 52wH | below POC
MRVL 229.21 (-3.30%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 52.9 | MACD bull | -30.5% off 52wH | below POC

Software / Cloud / Networking
ADBE 276.27 (+0.35%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 62.9 | MACD bull | -25.5% off 52wH | above POC
INTU 369.92 (+0.80%) | BULL (above 20/50) | RSI 69.0 | MACD bull | -47.5% off 52wH | above POC
PANW 350.90 (-1.99%) | MIXED (below 20, above 50, above 200) | RSI 48.5 | MACD bear | -12.0% off 52wH | above POC
CRWD 190.68 (-0.66%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 42.0 | MACD bear | -16.2% off 52wH | above POC
SNPS 394.51 (-0.84%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 41.7 | MACD bull | -35.9% off 52wH | below POC
CDNS 315.92 (-0.97%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 35.4 | MACD bear | -24.2% off 52wH | below POC
WDAY 199.15 (-0.43%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 66.2 | MACD bull | -20.3% off 52wH | above POC
FTNT 152.03 (-0.96%) | MIXED (below 20, above 50, above 200) | RSI 44.2 | MACD bear | -11.7% off 52wH | below POC
CSCO 110.23 (-0.73%) | BEAR (below 20/50) | RSI 41.2 | MACD bear | -15.4% off 52wH | below POC

Consumer / Internet
COST 971.40 (+2.50%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 57.6 | MACD bull | -11.4% off 52wH | above POC
NFLX 80.01 (+0.53%) | BULL (above 20/50) | RSI 62.6 | MACD bull | -36.9% off 52wH | above POC
BKNG 213.36 (+1.78%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 63.9 | MACD bear | -8.0% off 52wH | above POC
MELI 1,947.90 (+1.31%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 61.1 | MACD bull | -23.6% off 52wH | above POC
ABNB 190.21 (+1.55%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 73.5 | MACD bull | -1.7% off 52wH | above POC
DASH 229.06 (+2.49%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 73.2 | MACD bull | -19.8% off 52wH | above POC
PYPL 61.68 (+0.21%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 69.5 | MACD bear | -22.1% off 52wH | above POC
MAR 360.20 (+1.07%) | MIXED (above 20, below 50, above 200) | RSI 48.8 | MACD bull | -12.4% off 52wH | below POC
ORLY 90.68 (+1.76%) | BULL (above 20/50) | RSI 51.6 | MACD bear | -16.6% off 52wH | above POC
TMUS 182.62 (-0.23%) | BULL (above 20/50) | RSI 52.1 | MACD bull | -30.1% off 52wH | above POC

Healthcare / Biotech
REGN 828.50 (-0.66%) | BULL (above all) | RSI 73.5 | MACD bull | -2.2% off 52wH | above POC
ISRG 373.57 (-1.38%) | BEAR (below all) | RSI 45.2 | MACD bear | -38.1% off 52wH | below POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 490.03 (+0.50%) | MIXED (above 20, below 50, above 200) | RSI 47.7 | MACD bull | -10.6% off 52wH | below POC
CEG 273.43 (+0.20%) | BULL (above 20/50) | RSI 53.4 | MACD bear | -33.7% off 52wH | above POC


SECTOR READ
Semiconductors (11 names): 11 of 11 closed red. This was a clean, indiscriminate sector liquidation. AVGO RSI 35.4, TXN RSI 36.2 and KLAC RSI 38.7 are the weakest readings in the index. Only MRVL holds a bullish EMA stack, and it closed -3.30% and below its POC. Eight of the eleven are trading below their 60-day POC. This is the index's problem child.

Mega-cap Tech (6 names): mixed and increasingly split. MSFT and AMZN hold bullish stacks above all three EMAs; META sits below all three and 29.3% off its 52-week high; TSLA lost 3.81% and trades below both its 50 and 200 EMA. AAPL and GOOGL are in mixed configurations - AAPL just under its EMA20, GOOGL just under its EMA50. No leadership here.

Consumer / Internet (10 names): 9 of 10 closed green and this is where the leadership sits. ABNB (RSI 73.5, 1.7% off its 52-week high), DASH (RSI 73.2) and PYPL (RSI 69.5) are the standouts. Eight of the ten trade above their POC. Defensive-growth rotation is live.

Software / Cloud / Networking (9 names): genuinely two-tier. INTU (RSI 69.0), WDAY (RSI 66.2) and ADBE (RSI 62.9) are strong and above all EMAs; SNPS and CDNS sit below all three, with CDNS RSI at 35.4 and its EDA peer weakness mirroring the semi selloff. CRWD is below its 20/50 into Wednesday earnings.

Healthcare / Biotech (2 names): the strongest small group. REGN closed 828.50, RSI 73.5, only 2.2% off its 52-week high with a bullish EMA stack and price 23% above its POC. ISRG is the opposite - below all EMAs and 38.1% off its high.

Industrial / Other (2 names): LIN is mixed and below POC; CEG holds above its 20/50 but remains below its EMA200 and 33.7% off its high. Neither offers a signal.


TOP SWING SETUPS


1. REGN - LONG on breakout
The cleanest chart in the index. Bullish EMA stack (783.98 / 732.86 / 704.57), RSI 73.5, MACD 38.48 above signal 37.50, and price 23%% above its 673.60 POC. It is 2.2%% from a 52-week high at 847.00 having barely participated in today's weakness (-0.66%%).
Entry: 847.10 on a break of the 52-week high · Stop: 827.50 (1 ATR, ATR 19.63) · T1: 875.00 · T2: 905.00 · R:R: 1.4 to T1, 3.0 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high breakout, all-EMA alignment, POC far below, healthcare is the strongest sector group, no index-wide event risk on the name.


2. ABNB - LONG on breakout
ABNB closed 190.21 (+1.55%%) with today's high printing exactly at the 52-week high of 193.45. RSI 73.5, MACD 10.76 over 9.69, and a bullish stack (173.78 / 159.42 / 141.34). Price sits 23%% above its 154.67 POC.
Entry: 193.55 on a break of 193.45 · Stop: 187.00 (below today's low 188.53, 1.1 ATR) · T1: 202.00 · T2: 210.00 · R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.5 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high tag on an up day while the index fell, consumer / internet leadership, well-extended above POC. Note RSI above 70 - size accordingly.


3. DASH - LONG on continuation
Best absolute performer among the large-cap consumer names, +2.49%% to 229.06 on an index down day. Bullish stack (211.15 / 196.58 / 190.61), RSI 73.2, MACD 9.64 over 8.77, price 23%% above the 186.22 POC.
Entry: 230.20 above today's high of 230.07 · Stop: 222.00 (below pivot S1 222.67, 1 ATR, ATR 8.19) · T1: 242.85 · T2: 255.00 · R:R: 1.5 to T1, 3.0 to T2
Confluence: relative strength versus the index, pivot R3 as first target, clean EMA alignment, 19.8%% below its 52-week high so there is room to run.


4. AVGO - SHORT on breakdown
The weakest large-cap semi. Below all three EMAs (387.88 / 391.06 / 365.83), RSI 35.4, MACD -6.56 well beneath signal -0.35, and price 9.6% below its 396.65 POC. Closed -2.63% and effectively on its low (close 358.76, low 358.71).
Entry: 358.60 on a break of today's low · Stop: 370.60 (below the EMA200 reclaim zone, 0.8 ATR, ATR 14.89) · T1: 340.00 · T2: 322.00 · R:R: 1.5 to T1, 3.0 to T2
Confluence: closed on the low, full bearish EMA alignment, POC far overhead, entire sector red. The EMA200 at 365.83 is now resistance rather than support - that is the key structural change.


5. CDNS - SHORT on breakdown
Below all three EMAs (328.22 / 341.56 / 334.13) with the tell being that the EMA50 has crossed above the EMA200 order - price is beneath both. RSI 35.4 is joint-weakest in the index, MACD -9.84 under signal -9.68, and price is 12.7% below its 361.84 POC.
Entry: 311.30 on a break of today's low of 311.43 · Stop: 322.50 (1 ATR, ATR 10.78) · T1: 297.00 · T2: 285.00 · R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.4 to T2
Confluence: EDA weakness confirms the wider semiconductor decline, deeply bearish stack, no support until the 52-week low region at 262.75.


INTRADAY SETUPS - TUESDAY


1. AMZN - Camarilla long, EMA20 confluence
The single best level confluence on the board: Camarilla S3 at 260.90 sits exactly on the EMA20 at 260.90. AMZN closed +1.33%% with a bullish stack and price 5.3%% above its 248.96 POC.
Entry: 260.90 on the first tag · Stop: 259.60 (below Cam S4 259.72) · T1: 262.85 (Cam R2) · T2: 263.91 (pivot R1) · R:R: 1.5 to T1, 2.3 to T2
Direction: long. Exact-level confluence of a Camarilla reversal band and a rising EMA20 in a name that outperformed today.


2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade
NVDA closed 208.48, sitting almost exactly on its 208.01 POC after seven consecutive down sessions. Camarilla range is 206.19 to 210.77 with the daily pivot at 210.44.
Entry: 206.20 (Cam S3) · Stop: 203.80 (below Cam S4 203.89) · T1: 209.24 (Cam R1) · T2: 210.44 (pivot) · R:R: 1.3 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Direction: long, mean-reversion only. Warning: earnings Wednesday after the close. This is a Tuesday-only trade - flat by Wednesday's close, no exceptions. Seven red days into a print is stretched, but do not hold through the event.


3. AAPL - pivot bounce
Very tight Camarilla range (309.41 to 311.27) with the daily pivot at 311.22 and the EMA20 immediately above at 311.88. AAPL closed 310.34, just beneath both, and remains above its 306.93 POC.
Entry: 309.45 (Cam S3) · Stop: 308.20 (below Cam S4 308.48) · T1: 310.65 (Cam R1) · T2: 311.22 (pivot) · R:R: 1.0 to T1, 1.4 to T2
Direction: long. Tight range means tight risk. A clean break and hold above 311.88 flips AAPL back to a bullish stack and opens pivot R2 at 314.61 - that is the better trade if it comes.


4. MSFT - Camarilla breakout
The strongest mega-cap stack in the index: 471.63 / 442.37 / 432.50 with price 17%% above its 416.04 POC. MSFT closed +0.84%% at 487.31. Cam R4 at 492.12 is the breakout trigger.
Entry: 492.20 above Cam R4 · Stop: 488.90 (back inside the Cam R3 band) · T1: 495.34 (pivot R2) · T2: 500.08 (pivot R3) · R:R: 1.0 to T1, 2.4 to T2
Direction: long breakout. Only valid on a decisive move through 492.12 - inside the band this becomes a range and the setup is void.


5. META - oversold Camarilla bounce
META is structurally the weakest mega-cap (below all three EMAs, 29.3% off its 52-week high) but it closed +1.66% on an index down day, which is the first sign of stabilisation in weeks. RSI 42.3.
Entry: 554.90 (Cam S3) · Stop: 549.70 (below Cam S4 550.70) · T1: 560.41 (Cam R1) · T2: 564.86 (pivot R1) · R:R: 1.1 to T1, 1.9 to T2
Direction: long, counter-trend and tactical only. The EMA20 at 575.59 is heavy resistance and the POC at 594.98 is 6.4% overhead - this is a bounce trade, not a reversal trade. Half-size.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS


AAPL - 310.34
Cam: S4 | S3 | S1 308.48 | 309.41 | 310.03 || R1 | R3 | R4 310.65 | 311.27 | 312.20
Classic: S3 | S2 | S1 305.70 | 307.83 | 309.09 || R1 | R2 | R3 312.48 | 314.61 | 315.87
EMA 20/50/200: 311.88 / 309.42 / 283.45 · POC: 306.93
Prev H/L: 313.36 / 309.97 · 52w H/L: 344.57 / 224.69


MSFT - 487.31
Cam: S4 | S3 | S1 482.50 | 484.90 | 486.51 || R1 | R3 | R4 488.11 | 489.72 | 492.12
Classic: S3 | S2 | S1 473.83 | 477.84 | 482.58 || R1 | R2 | R3 491.33 | 495.34 | 500.08
EMA 20/50/200: 471.63 / 442.37 / 432.50 · POC: 416.04
Prev H/L: 490.61 / 481.86 · 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20


NVDA - 208.48
Cam: S4 | S3 | S1 203.89 | 206.19 | 207.72 || R1 | R3 | R4 209.24 | 210.77 | 213.07
Classic: S3 | S2 | S1 196.95 | 202.10 | 205.29 || R1 | R2 | R3 213.63 | 218.78 | 221.97
EMA 20/50/200: 214.79 / 210.46 / 195.49 · POC: 208.01
Prev H/L: 215.59 / 207.25 · 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07


AMZN - 262.07
Cam: S4 | S3 | S1 259.72 | 260.90 | 261.68 || R1 | R3 | R4 262.46 | 263.24 | 264.42
Classic: S3 | S2 | S1 255.37 | 257.21 | 259.64 || R1 | R2 | R3 263.91 | 265.75 | 268.18
EMA 20/50/200: 260.90 / 255.11 / 240.65 · POC: 248.96
Prev H/L: 263.32 / 259.05 · 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00


GOOGL - 348.06
Cam: S4 | S3 | S1 343.05 | 345.55 | 347.22 || R1 | R3 | R4 348.90 | 350.57 | 353.07
Classic: S3 | S2 | S1 334.06 | 338.27 | 343.17 || R1 | R2 | R3 352.28 | 356.49 | 361.39
EMA 20/50/200: 347.70 / 350.94 / 324.81 · POC: 353.32
Prev H/L: 351.60 / 342.49 · 52w H/L: 408.61 / 201.30


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Index MACD sell signal. MACD 90.81 crossed below signal 127.70 with the histogram expanding to -36.89. The EMA20 has also crossed below the EMA50. Both are near-term negatives.

2. Six names below all three EMAs: META, AVGO, QCOM, ISRG, SNPS, CDNS. That is 15% of the index in full bearish alignment, and it includes two mega-caps.

3. Semiconductor breadth collapse. All eleven chip names red on the day, with eight trading below their POC. AVGO and CDNS share the weakest RSI reading at 35.4; TXN 36.2; KLAC 38.7. When the highest-beta sector in the index has zero green names, the index does not lead.

4. AMD EMA compression. EMA20 484.94 and EMA50 484.39 have converged to within 0.55 points with price 5.7% below both at 456.75. A bearish crossover here is imminent and AMD sits 21.9% off its high.

5. COST long-term MA inversion. EMA50 955.43 is below EMA200 962.71 - a death cross is already in place - even though price closed +2.50% above both. Strong day, weak structure. Do not confuse the two.

6. Distance-from-high warnings. INTU -47.5%, KLAC -40.9%, QCOM -39.0%, ISRG -38.1%, NFLX -36.9%, SNPS -35.9%, AMAT -34.5%. Several of these are rallying hard off lows (INTU RSI 69.0, NFLX RSI 62.6) but they are still deep repair jobs, not fresh breakouts.

7. Complacency into event risk. VIX at 15.13 ahead of PCE, NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole in the same week is thin protection. Options are cheap for a reason - use them rather than sizing up on stock.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Tuesday 25 August
US Consumer Confidence - 10:00 ET / 15:00 UK. First read on whether the consumer is holding up. Direct read-through to the COST / ORLY / MAR / ABNB / DASH complex that led today.

Wednesday 26 August - the week's pivot
July PCE inflation, Q2 GDP revision and Durable Goods Orders - 08:30 ET / 13:30 UK. Headline PCE expected +0.1%% m/m, annual rate seen easing to 3.6%% from 3.7%%.
NVDA Q2 FY2027 results - approx 16:20 ET / 21:20 UK, call 17:00 ET. Consensus around $92bn revenue, +96.9%% y/y. This single print sets the tone for all eleven semiconductor names and, given the weighting, for the index.
CRWD Q2 results - after the US close, call 17:00 ET. CRWD closed below its 20 and 50 EMA today at 190.68.

Thursday 27 August
MRVL fiscal Q2 2027 results - after the close (confirmed). MRVL fell 3.30%% today and trades below its POC despite a bullish EMA stack.

Friday 28 August
Jackson Hole keynote from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Expect volatility into the European afternoon.

Planning note: Wednesday carries PCE at 13:30 UK and NVDA at 21:20 UK on the same day. Any index-level directional position taken on Tuesday should be sized on the assumption that Wednesday gaps.


Report: 24 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) - DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Friday 21 August 2026
Data: Close 21 Aug 2026 (scanner date 2026-08-21, all 40 components current) | NAS100: 29,308.86 | Change: +95.69 (+0.33%) | Range: 29,142.44 - 29,405.12




MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,308.86, up +95.69 points (+0.33%) on a 262.68-point range (29,142.44 - 29,405.12). Volume 1.14bn, slightly below the 1.18-1.28bn seen on the three prior sessions.
That green print flatters a poor week. The index came into Monday at 30,046.14 and finished the week at 29,308.86 - a -2.45% weekly decline, with Wednesday (-1.68%) and Thursday (-0.72%) doing the damage as long-end Treasury volatility knocked risk appetite. Friday was a stabilisation bounce, not a reversal: the index opened at 29,359.60, sold to 29,142.44 (a fresh marginal low versus Thursday's 29,118.07 hold), then recovered into the close.
The VIX rose 7.5% to 16.01 - still historically calm, but rising on an up day for equities is a mild warning that hedging demand is building ahead of next week's event block (Jackson Hole, PCE and NVIDIA earnings).
Drivers: Tesla (+5.14%, 1.67x relative volume) was the single biggest contributor. Palo Alto Networks (+2.43%), Fortinet (+1.80%) and Cadence (+1.73%) added support. Semiconductors stayed heavy - Marvell (-5.57%), KLA (-1.01%), NVIDIA (-0.97%), Applied Materials (-0.78%) and Micron (-0.77%) all closed red.
Bias: Neutral with a corrective tilt. The index is below its 20 EMA but comfortably above its 50 and 200 EMA, RSI is dead-centre at 50.0, and the MACD has just crossed bearish. This is consolidation inside a longer-term uptrend, not a breakdown - but the burden of proof now sits with the bulls to reclaim 29,480.




TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100 daily): EMA20 29,480.14 . EMA50 29,131.54 . EMA200 27,098.12
The stack itself remains bullish-aligned (20 > 50 > 200). Price at 29,308.86 sits below the 20 EMA (-0.58%) but above the 50 EMA (+0.61%) and a long way above the 200 EMA (+8.16%).
Structure: Lower highs since 30,195.72 (17 Aug) - 29,677.29 - 29,652.30 - 29,378.81 - 29,405.12. Lows have flattened out at 29,118.07 / 29,142.44, so the sequence is a descending wedge into horizontal support rather than a clean downtrend.
Phase: Pullback / consolidation within a Stage 2 advance. The 20 EMA (29,480) and the 50 EMA (29,131) now bracket price in a 349-point box - that box is the market. A daily close outside it defines the next leg.




MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 49.97 - textbook neutral. No overbought unwind left to do, no oversold bounce to lean on. There is no bullish divergence at the 29,118-29,142 lows: RSI has fallen with price, which is confirmation of the pullback rather than a warning it is ending.
MACD: 135.02, Signal 136.93, Histogram -1.90 - a fresh bearish cross. The MACD line is still well above zero, so the medium-term trend has not flipped, but momentum has rolled over. Histogram is only marginally negative, meaning the cross is 1-2 sessions old and could still be rejected.
Volume: 1.14bn on the bounce versus 1.18bn on Thursday's decline and 1.27-1.28bn on Tuesday/Wednesday's selling. Declines are trading on heavier volume than advances - distribution, not accumulation.




KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance: R1 29,405 (today high, classic R1 29,428) . R2 29,480 (20 EMA - the pivot level for the whole structure) . R3 29,652-29,677 (18-19 Aug swing highs)
Support: S1 29,118-29,142 (two-day low cluster) . S2 29,131 (50 EMA - overlaps S1, making 29,118-29,142 the single most important zone on the chart) . S3 29,023 (classic S2), then 28,903 (classic S3)
Classic pivots (from 21 Aug bar): S2 29,022.79 . S1 29,165.83 . P 29,285.48 . R1 29,428.51 . R2 29,548.16
Camarilla: S4 29,164.38 . S3 29,236.62 . S1 29,284.78 || R1 29,332.94 . R3 29,381.10 . R4 29,453.33
Round numbers: 29,000 . 29,500 . 30,000 (the 30,000 handle capped the index all of last week and is now the bull objective).
The trade in one line: the 29,118-29,142 low cluster sitting directly on the 50 EMA at 29,131 is a triple-confluence floor. Hold it and 29,480 comes back into play. Lose it on a daily close and 29,023 then 28,903 open up quickly.




COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses strict EMA rules (close versus each EMA - no "at" or "near"). Every classification below was verified programmatically against close vs EMA20/EMA50/EMA200: zero mismatches.
AAPL 309.35 -0.63% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 47.3 . MACD Bear . -10.2% from 52wH . Above POC
MSFT 483.24 +0.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 62.4 . MACD Bear . -12.7% from 52wH . Above POC
NVDA 214.75 -0.97% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI Bull 51.0 . MACD Bear . -9.2% from 52wH . Above POC
AMZN 258.63 -0.57% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI Bear 49.7 . MACD Bear . -9.9% from 52wH . Above POC
META 549.90 +0.75% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 38.7 . MACD Bear . -30.5% from 52wH . Below POC
GOOGL 344.82 +1.22% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 47.2 . MACD Bear . -15.6% from 52wH . Below POC
AVGO 368.45 +1.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 38.7 . MACD Bear . -25.6% from 52wH . Below POC
TSLA 362.86 +5.14% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI Bull 58.0 . MACD Bull . -27.3% from 52wH . Below POC
COST 947.74 +1.52% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 49.0 . MACD Bear . -13.6% from 52wH . Below POC
NFLX 79.59 -0.69% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI Bull 61.6 . MACD Bull . -37.2% from 52wH . Above POC
AMD 473.25 +0.81% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 45.8 . MACD Bear . -19.1% from 52wH . Below POC
ADBE 275.30 +1.13% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 62.5 . MACD Bull . -25.8% from 52wH . Above POC
QCOM 160.75 +0.01% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 43.6 . MACD Bull . -38.2% from 52wH . Below POC
TMUS 183.04 +1.00% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI Bull 52.7 . MACD Bull . -29.9% from 52wH . Above POC
LIN 487.57 +1.30% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 45.6 . MACD Bull . -11.1% from 52wH . Below POC
ISRG 378.81 +1.16% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 47.6 . MACD Bull . -37.3% from 52wH . Below POC
INTU 367.00 +1.42% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI Bull 68.1 . MACD Bull . -47.9% from 52wH . Above POC
CSCO 111.04 +1.32% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 42.4 . MACD Bear . -14.8% from 52wH . Below POC
TXN 264.36 -0.47% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 39.0 . MACD Bear . -20.9% from 52wH . Below POC
AMAT 492.32 -0.78% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 43.1 . MACD Bear . -33.4% from 52wH . Below POC
BKNG 209.62 -0.12% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 60.8 . MACD Bear . -9.6% from 52wH . Above POC
PANW 358.04 +2.43% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI Bull 51.6 . MACD Bear . -10.2% from 52wH . Above POC
MU 966.78 -0.77% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 54.3 . MACD Bull . -23.0% from 52wH . Below POC
LRCX 314.00 +1.12% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 48.4 . MACD Bull . -28.4% from 52wH . Below POC
KLAC 183.99 -1.01% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 39.8 . MACD Bear . -40.1% from 52wH . Below POC
ADI 373.09 +0.77% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 45.3 . MACD Bear . -16.3% from 52wH . Below POC
REGN 834.04 +0.90% . Bull (above all) . RSI OB 76.4 . MACD Bull . -1.5% from 52wH . Above POC
SNPS 397.87 -0.01% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 43.5 . MACD Bull . -35.4% from 52wH . Below POC
CDNS 319.02 +1.73% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 37.2 . MACD Bear . -23.4% from 52wH . Below POC
MELI 1922.73 +0.04% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 58.9 . MACD Bull . -24.6% from 52wH . Above POC
CRWD 191.95 +0.85% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI Bear 42.8 . MACD Bear . -15.6% from 52wH . Above POC
MAR 356.39 -0.06% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI Bear 45.1 . MACD Bull . -13.3% from 52wH . Below POC
ABNB 187.30 +1.24% . Bull (above all) . RSI OB 71.8 . MACD Bull . -1.0% from 52wH . Above POC
MRVL 237.04 -5.57% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 55.8 . MACD Bull . -28.1% from 52wH . Below POC
DASH 223.49 +0.51% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 69.9 . MACD Bull . -21.7% from 52wH . Above POC
FTNT 153.51 +1.80% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI Bear 45.8 . MACD Bear . -10.8% from 52wH . Above POC
CEG 272.88 -0.01% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI Bull 53.0 . MACD Bear . -33.9% from 52wH . Above POC
WDAY 200.01 +1.36% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 66.9 . MACD Bull . -19.9% from 52wH . Above POC
PYPL 61.55 -1.20% . Bull (above all) . RSI Bull 69.1 . MACD Bear . -22.3% from 52wH . Above POC
ORLY 89.11 +0.03% . Bear (below all) . RSI Bear 46.3 . MACD Bear . -18.0% from 52wH . Above POC




BREADTH SUMMARY
Advancers 26 / Decliners 14 - a solid day on the surface.
Trend split: Bull (above all) 11 . Bull (above 20/50) 5 . Bear (below 20/50) 11 . Bear (below all) 8 . Mixed 5
That is the real story: 19 of 40 components (47.5%) are below both their 20 and 50 day EMA while the index itself is only 0.6% below its 20 EMA. Index-level resilience is being carried by a shrinking group of leaders.
MACD: 18 of 40 bullish, 22 bearish. Above 60-day POC: 20 of 40 - a dead-even split.
RSI extremes: Overbought - REGN 76.4, ABNB 71.8. Weakest - CDNS 37.2, META 38.7, AVGO 38.7, TXN 39.0, KLAC 39.8.




SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech: AAPL -0.63% . MSFT +0.43% . NVDA -0.97% . AMZN -0.57% . META +0.75% . GOOGL +1.22% . TSLA +5.14%
Split down the middle. MSFT is the only one bullish on all three EMAs. NVDA and AMZN are Mixed (below 20, above 50 and 200) - both are one good session from repairing. AAPL and GOOGL are below both short EMAs. META is the outlier and the group's dead weight: below all three EMAs with a fully inverted stack. TSLA is the bright spot, reclaiming its 20 and 50 EMA on 1.67x volume.
Semiconductors: AVGO +1.21% . AMD +0.81% . QCOM +0.01% . TXN -0.47% . AMAT -0.78% . MU -0.77% . LRCX +1.12% . KLAC -1.01% . ADI +0.77% . MRVL -5.57%
The weakest group in the index. Seven of ten are below both their 20 and 50 EMA. Only MU (bull, all three, with a fresh MACD cross) and MRVL (bull all three despite a -5.57% day) hold constructive structures. AVGO, QCOM and TXN are the worst - all below all three or with EMA200 immediately underneath. Semis have not participated in the index bounce, and with NVDA reporting Wednesday this group carries the week's risk.
Software / Cloud: ADBE +1.13% . INTU +1.42% . CSCO +1.32% . PANW +2.43% . SNPS -0.01% . CDNS +1.73% . CRWD +0.85% . FTNT +1.80% . WDAY +1.36%
The genuine leadership. ADBE, INTU and WDAY are all bullish with MACD confirming, and INTU (RSI 68.1) and WDAY (RSI 66.9) are the strongest momentum names in the whole 40. PANW, CRWD and FTNT are Mixed - below the 20 EMA, above the 50 and 200. SNPS and CDNS are the exceptions and are outright broken (below all three EMAs, RSI in the 30s).
Consumer / Internet: COST +1.52% . NFLX -0.69% . BKNG -0.12% . MELI +0.04% . MAR -0.06% . ABNB +1.24% . DASH +0.51% . PYPL -1.20% . ORLY +0.03% . TMUS +1.00%
Quietly the best group. BKNG, MELI, ABNB, DASH and PYPL are all above every EMA, and ABNB is 1.0% from a 52-week high. NFLX and TMUS are above their 20/50 but below the 200. Only COST and ORLY are below all three - both with tightly compressed, inverting EMA stacks that warrant watching.
Healthcare / Biotech: ISRG +1.16% . REGN +0.90%
A tale of two charts. REGN closed at 834.04 having tagged a new 52-week high of 847.00 intraday - above all EMAs, MACD firmly bullish, RSI 76.4. ISRG is the mirror image: below all three EMAs and 37.3% below its 52-week high.
Industrial / Other: LIN +1.30% . CEG -0.01%
LIN is below all three EMAs but the 20 (489.44) and 200 (487.86) are only 0.3% apart with price at 487.57 - a genuine decision point. CEG is above its 20 and 50 but 5.0% below its 200 EMA, and 33.9% off its high.




TOP SWING SETUPS
1. ABNB - LONG (52-week high breakout)
Above all three EMAs, MACD bullish (10.64 vs 9.42), RSI 71.8, and trading 21.9% above its 60-day POC of 153.59 - no overhead supply anywhere. Closed at 187.30, just 1.0% below the 52-week high of 189.20 after an intraday 188.60.
Entry: 189.30 (on a break of the 52w high) . Stop: 181.70 (below classic S2 182.45) . T1: 200.00 . T2: 208.50 . R:R: 1:1.41 / 1:2.53
Confluence: 52w high breakout + full EMA alignment + MACD expansion + POC 34 points below. Risk: RSI already 71.8 - a failed breakout would be a clean short signal.

2. REGN - LONG (all-time-area breakout)
Today's high of 847.00 is the 52-week high. Close 834.04, above all three EMAs (779.29 / 728.96 / 703.33), MACD 39.41 vs signal 37.26 and widening, relative volume 0.95.
Entry: 847.50 . Stop: 824.50 (below today's low 826.64 and classic S1) . T1: 878.00 . T2: 905.00 . R:R: 1:1.33 / 1:2.50
Confluence: New 52w high + strongest EMA separation in the index + POC 671.10 (24% below). Risk: RSI 76.4 is the most overbought reading in the 40 - size accordingly and expect a shakeout first.

3. TSLA - LONG (EMA reclaim, pullback entry)
The day's standout: +5.14% on 1.67x relative volume, reclaiming both the 20 EMA (342.10) and 50 EMA (358.78) in one session, with a MACD bullish cross (-3.33 vs -9.56). Still below the 200 EMA at 382.85 and below its POC of 375.39, so this is a counter-trend recovery, not a trend trade.
Entry: 358.80 (pullback to 50 EMA / classic pivot 358.75) . Stop: 341.50 (below 20 EMA) . T1: 375.40 (POC) . T2: 382.85 (200 EMA) . R:R: 1:0.96 / 1:1.39
Confluence: Pivot 358.75 and 50 EMA 358.78 are the same number - a rare exact overlap. Volume confirms. Risk: modest R:R; the POC at 375.39 is real overhead supply and the 200 EMA above it is the harder wall.

4. META - SHORT (broken structure, 52w low approach)
The weakest large-cap in the index. Below all three EMAs with a fully inverted stack (20: 577.34 < 50: 592.37 < 200: 621.94), RSI 38.7, MACD -14.11 versus signal -9.89 and still widening. Trading 30.5% below its 52-week high and 7.7% below its POC of 596.04. The 52-week low of 520.26 is only 5.4% away.
Entry: 543.00 (break of today's low 543.23) . Stop: 561.00 (above today's high 553.87 and Camarilla R4 555.75) . T1: 520.30 (52w low) . T2: 505.00 . R:R: 1:1.26 / 1:2.11
Confluence: Inverted EMA stack + expanding bearish MACD + below POC + no support until the 52w low. Risk: it closed up 0.75% today and RSI 38.7 is close to oversold - wait for the break, do not anticipate it.

5. AVGO - SHORT (200 EMA break)
Closed 368.45, below both the 20 EMA (390.94) and 50 EMA (392.37), with the 200 EMA at 365.90 sitting just 0.69% underneath. MACD has collapsed to -4.64 from a signal of +1.20 - the sharpest negative divergence between line and signal in the index. RSI 38.7, 25.6% below its 52-week high, 7.3% below POC 397.35.
Entry: 365.00 (on the 200 EMA break) . Stop: 376.00 (above today's high 375.13) . T1: 353.90 (classic S3) . T2: 340.00 . R:R: 1:1.01 / 1:2.27
Confluence: 200 EMA loss + MACD collapse + below POC + the weakest sector in the index. Risk: it closed up 1.21% today; the 200 EMA has to actually give way. No trade above 366.




INTRADAY SETUPS - MONDAY 24 AUGUST
1. MSFT - Pivot bounce LONG
Close 483.24 sits 0.53 above the classic pivot of 482.71. Above all three EMAs, the only mega-cap fully aligned. Direction: Long.
Entry: 482.90 on a hold of the pivot . Stop: 478.40 (below classic S1 479.06 and today's low 478.53) . Target: 486.89 (R1), stretch 490.54 (R2) . R:R: 1:0.89 / 1:1.70
Reasoning: pivot, prior close and the day's value area all coincide at 482.50-483.50. Cleanest pivot-reversion structure in the index.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range fade LONG
Close 214.75 is inside the Camarilla S1/R1 band (214.36 / 215.14) - the classic range-day signature. Mixed trend (below 20 EMA 215.45, above 50 EMA 210.54 and 200 EMA 195.36). Direction: Long from the lower band.
Entry: 213.58 (Camarilla S3) . Stop: 212.30 (below Camarilla S4 212.42) . Target: 215.14 (Cam R1), stretch 216.00 (pivot) . R:R: 1:1.22 / 1:1.89
Reasoning: Cam S3 213.58 also sits fractionally below today's low of 214.50 and above the 50 EMA. Invalidation: NVDA reports Wednesday - do not carry this past Tuesday's close.

3. AAPL - Camarilla breakout SHORT
Close 309.35 is below the 50 EMA at 309.38 and well below the 20 EMA at 312.04 - a Bear (below 20/50) classification, with the 60-day POC at 306.96 just underneath. Direction: Short on breakdown.
Entry: 307.70 (break of Camarilla S3 307.87) . Stop: 309.70 (back above the 50 EMA) . Target: 306.78 (S1) then 304.21 (S2) . R:R: 1:0.46 / 1:1.75
Reasoning: the POC at 306.96 will fight the first target - the trade only pays if 306.78 gives way and S2 comes into play. Tight stop, so keep size honest.

4. TSLA - Pivot bounce LONG
Wide-range day (346.90 - 366.50) leaves a widely spaced pivot set. Close 362.86 sits above the pivot of 358.75. Direction: Long on a retest.
Entry: 359.00 (pivot 358.75 / 50 EMA 358.78) . Stop: 351.00 (classic S1) . Target: 370.61 (R1), stretch 375.39 (POC) . R:R: 1:1.45 / 1:2.05
Reasoning: exact pivot / 50 EMA overlap plus yesterday's 1.67x volume expansion. Best risk-reward on the intraday board.

5. PANW - Camarilla breakout LONG
Rallied 2.43% off a 343.01 low to close 358.04, but still fractionally below the 20 EMA (360.20). Above the 50 EMA (332.43) and far above the 200 (251.88), with POC 318.85 well below. Direction: Long on continuation.
Entry: 360.70 (above Camarilla R3 362.85 is safer; 360.70 clears the 20 EMA and today's high 360.49) . Stop: 353.60 (below classic pivot 353.85) . Target: 364.68 (R1) then 371.33 (R2) . R:R: 1:0.56 / 1:1.50
Reasoning: reclaiming the 20 EMA would flip PANW from Mixed to Bull (above all). Risk: MACD is still bearish (9.86 vs 13.40), so this is a counter-momentum entry.




KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
AAPL - 309.35 (-0.63%)
Camarilla: S4 306.40 . S3 307.87 . S1 308.86 || R1 309.84 . R3 310.83 . R4 312.30
Classic: S3 301.41 . S2 304.21 . S1 306.78 . P 309.58 . R1 312.15 . R2 314.95 . R3 317.52
EMAs: 20 312.04 . 50 309.38 . 200 283.18 . POC 306.96
Prev H/L: 312.38 / 307.01 . 52w H/L: 344.57 / 223.78 . ATR14 7.63

MSFT - 483.24 (+0.43%)
Camarilla: S4 478.93 . S3 481.09 . S1 482.52 || R1 483.96 . R3 485.39 . R4 487.55
Classic: S3 471.23 . S2 474.88 . S1 479.06 . P 482.71 . R1 486.89 . R2 490.54 . R3 494.72
EMAs: 20 469.98 . 50 440.53 . 200 431.95 . POC 415.73
Prev H/L: 486.36 / 478.53 . 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 . ATR14 12.33

NVDA - 214.75 (-0.97%)
Camarilla: S4 212.42 . S3 213.58 . S1 214.36 || R1 215.14 . R3 215.92 . R4 217.08
Classic: S3 209.01 . S2 211.76 . S1 213.25 . P 216.00 . R1 217.49 . R2 220.24 . R3 221.73
EMAs: 20 215.45 . 50 210.54 . 200 195.36 . POC 208.07
Prev H/L: 218.74 / 214.50 . 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07 . ATR14 6.26

AMZN - 258.63 (-0.57%)
Camarilla: S4 256.40 . S3 257.52 . S1 258.26 || R1 259.00 . R3 259.74 . R4 260.86
Classic: S3 252.70 . S2 254.87 . S1 256.75 . P 258.92 . R1 260.80 . R2 262.97 . R3 264.85
EMAs: 20 260.78 . 50 254.83 . 200 240.43 . POC 249.15
Prev H/L: 261.09 / 257.04 . 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 . ATR14 7.48

META - 549.90 (+0.75%)
Camarilla: S4 544.05 . S3 546.97 . S1 548.92 || R1 550.88 . R3 552.83 . R4 555.75
Classic: S3 533.49 . S2 538.36 . S1 544.13 . P 549.00 . R1 554.77 . R2 559.64 . R3 565.41
EMAs: 20 577.34 . 50 592.37 . 200 621.94 . POC 596.04
Prev H/L: 553.87 / 543.23 . 52w H/L: 790.80 / 520.26 . ATR14 20.26





BEARISH WARNINGS
Index level: MACD bearish cross (135.02 vs 136.93) with price below the 20 EMA. Declining sessions this week traded 1.27-1.28bn shares versus 1.14bn on today's advance - volume is confirming the sellers, not the buyers. VIX +7.5% on an up day.
Fully inverted EMA stacks (20 < 50 < 200) - the structural death-cross group:
. META 549.90 - 20: 577.34 / 50: 592.37 / 200: 621.94. RSI 38.7, MACD -14.11 and widening, 30.5% below 52w high, only 5.4% above the 52w low of 520.26. The most damaged large-cap in the index.
. COST 947.74 - 20: 949.93 / 50: 954.78 / 200: 962.62. Compressed within 1.5% but correctly ordered for a bear stack. MACD 0.43 vs 0.95.
. ISRG 378.81 - 20: 383.38 / 50: 391.65 / 200: 445.37. 37.3% below 52w high.
. SNPS 397.87 - 20: 405.20 / 50: 419.25 / 200: 450.13. 35.4% below 52w high, RSI 43.5.
. TMUS, NFLX, CEG are above their 20/50 but below their 200 EMA - improving, but still repairing damage.
Bearish MACD with weak RSI (the momentum-failure list): CDNS (RSI 37.2, MACD -9.97), AVGO (38.7, -4.64), TXN (39.0, -5.52), KLAC (39.8, -6.04), AMAT (43.1, -11.50), CSCO (42.4, -1.22), CRWD (42.8, MACD 3.18 rolling under signal 6.48).
Near 52-week lows / deepest drawdowns: INTU -48.0%, KLAC -40.1%, QCOM -38.2%, ISRG -37.3%, NFLX -37.2%, SNPS -35.4%, AMAT -33.4%, CEG -33.9% from their respective 52-week highs. Note INTU and NFLX are trading well technically despite the drawdown - the percentage alone is not the signal.
Overbought divergence risk: REGN RSI 76.4 at a new 52-week high and ABNB RSI 71.8 at 1.0% from its high. Both are strong, but both are extended - a failed breakout in either would be a high-quality short trigger.
Compression warnings (EMAs within 1% - imminent cross): LIN (20: 489.44, 200: 487.86, price 487.57), ORLY (20: 90.41, 50: 89.86, 200: 91.64, price 89.11), AAPL (50: 309.38, price 309.35 - sitting exactly on it), AVGO (200: 365.90, price 368.45), CRWD (50: 191.74, price 191.95).




EVENTS CALENDAR - WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday 25 August - US Consumer Confidence, 15:00 UK.
Wednesday 26 August - US GDP (second estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending with the PCE deflator, all 13:30 UK. The single heaviest data morning of the week.
Wednesday 26 August, after the close - NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 FY27 earnings, call 22:00 UK. Consensus revenue is in the 93-95bn USD range. This is the week's dominant risk event for the index: NVDA is a top-three weight, it closed -0.97% today and is Mixed on trend (below its 20 EMA), and the entire semiconductor group is already the weakest sector in the 40. CrowdStrike (CRWD) also reports after the close.
Thursday 27 August - Marvell (MRVL) and Workday (WDAY) earnings. MRVL fell 5.57% today into the print; WDAY is one of the strongest charts in the index (RSI 66.9, above all EMAs) and therefore has the most to lose.
Thursday 27 August - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium. With long-end Treasury volatility having driven this week's selling, and questions over central bank independence in the background, this is the macro event the index is positioned around.
Positioning note: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning carries PCE, NVDA and Jackson Hole inside 24 hours. Any swing position held through that window is an event bet, not a technical one. Size accordingly, or stand aside until Friday.




SUMMARY
The NAS100 closed a losing week (-2.45%) on a modest green day, leaving price boxed between the 20 EMA at 29,480 and the 50 EMA at 29,131. RSI is exactly neutral, the MACD has just crossed bearish, and breadth beneath the surface is materially worse than the index suggests - 47.5% of components are below both their 20 and 50 EMA. Semiconductors are the drag; software/cloud and consumer/internet are carrying the index.
Bull case: hold 29,118-29,142 (which is also the 50 EMA), reclaim 29,480, and 29,652 then 30,000 come back into range.
Bear case: a daily close below 29,118 breaks the two-day floor and the 50 EMA together, opening 29,023 and then 28,903.
Most likely: chop between 29,142 and 29,480 into Wednesday, then NVIDIA and PCE decide the direction.

Report: 21 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT — Thursday 20 August 2026
Index data: Close 20 Aug 2026 | NAS100 (NDX): 29,213.16 | Change: -212.86 (-0.72%) | Range: 29,118.07 - 29,378.81 | Volume: 1.17bn
IMPORTANT DATA NOTE: The component scanner had NOT refreshed for the 20 Aug close at the time of this run. All 40 stock-level figures, EMAs, pivots and Camarilla levels below are Wednesday 19 August 2026 closing data. Index figures, EMAs, RSI, MACD and index pivots ARE 20 August. Treat stock levels as one session stale and re-validate against Thursday's actual close before acting.


MARKET OVERVIEW
NAS100 closed at 29,213.16, down 212.86 points (-0.72%), a third down day in four and the lowest close since 3 August. The index opened at 29,295.15, spent the entire session below the open, and finished 95 points off the low at 29,118.07 — a weak but not capitulatory close.

What drove it: Wednesday's Treasury-led relief rally reversed. The Treasury Department confirmed it will more than double repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt, but long yields turned back higher after hawkish-than-expected FOMC minutes, with the 30-year sitting near its highest level in almost twenty years. Retail bellwether Walmart fell 9% on a US comparable-sales miss (+2.6% vs +3.8% expected), reviving consumer-slowdown worries. Crude spiked — WTI +2.83% to $86.78 and Brent +2.58% to $93.98 — after President Trump threatened a "crushing economic operation" against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin ripped +11.5% on the buyback news, dragging crypto-linked equities higher.

Peers: S&P 500 -0.87% to 7,641.16 · Dow -1.32% (-703.84) to 52,759.21 · Nasdaq Composite -1.00% to 26,067.17 · VIX ~16.02 (up from 14.89 on 18 Aug, high of the day 16.14).

Bias: Neutral-to-mildly-bearish over 1-3 sessions. Trend structure is intact but momentum has stalled and the index has now lost its 20 EMA. Rate-sensitivity is the dominant macro variable into Jackson Hole.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (daily, 20 Aug): EMA20 29,366.25 · EMA50 29,059.73 · EMA200 27,075.90
Close 29,213.16 — BELOW EMA20, ABOVE EMA50, ABOVE EMA200.

The stack is still bullishly ordered (20 > 50 > 200) but price has dropped through the 20 EMA and is now sitting in the 29,060-29,366 pocket between the 20 and 50. That is a classic pullback-in-uptrend location, not a trend break. The 200 EMA sits 2,137 points (7.3%) below — the primary uptrend has an enormous cushion.

Structure: The swing high of the last three months sits at 30,762. Since then the index has been range-bound between roughly 27,200 and 30,700, carving a broad rectangle. Within that range price has just made a lower high (30,195.72 on 17 Aug) while still holding a higher low (27,176 in late July). Compression, not distribution — yet.

Phase: Late Stage-2 consolidation. Bulls need a close back above 29,366 (EMA20) to re-assert; bears need 28,834 to open the 28,100 shelf.


MOMENTUM AND VOLUME
RSI(14): 48.76 — dead neutral, sitting fractionally below the 50 midline. No divergence: the 20 Aug price low (29,118) is above the 5 Aug low (27,763) and RSI is correspondingly higher, so the pullback is orderly. RSI has not been below 30 since late July nor above 70 since early June — this is a market with no conviction in either direction.

MACD: 160.41 · Signal: 137.40 · Histogram +23.00 — still a bullish configuration (MACD above signal, both above zero) but the histogram has been shrinking for three sessions. The cross remains valid; the impulse behind it does not. A histogram flip negative would likely coincide with a test of the 50 EMA.

Volume: 1.17bn — the lightest session of the last five and roughly 12% below the 20-day average. A down day on falling volume is a pullback signature rather than a distribution signature. That is the single most constructive datapoint in this report.


KEY INDEX LEVELS (for Friday 21 August)
Classic pivots from the 20 Aug session (H 29,378.81 · L 29,118.07 · C 29,213.16):
S3 28,834 · S2 28,976 · S1 29,095 || P 29,237 || R1 29,355 · R2 29,497 · R3 29,616

RESISTANCE
R1 29,355-29,366 — pivot R1 stacked directly on the 20 EMA. The single most important level on the chart. Reclaiming and holding it flips the short-term tape back bullish.
R2 29,497-29,500 — pivot R2 plus the 29,500 round number and the 19 Aug close area (29,426) just beneath.
R3 29,616-29,652 — pivot R3 plus the 19 Aug session high. A close above here voids the near-term bearish case entirely.

SUPPORT
S1 29,060-29,118 — pivot S1 (29,095) sandwiched with the 50 EMA (29,059.73) and today's low (29,118.07). Thick confluence. Expect a bounce attempt on first touch.
S2 28,976-29,000 — pivot S2 plus the 29,000 round number. Losing this on a closing basis is the first genuine warning.
S3 28,834 — pivot S3. Below it the 28,100-28,275 shelf from early August comes into play.


COMPONENT SIGNALS — ALL 40 (data: close Wed 19 Aug 2026)
Trend uses STRICT EMA classification: close compared against the 20, 50 and 200 EMA individually. Programmatic verification run across all 40 names: 0 mismatches.

AAPL 316.83 +2.19% · Bull (above all) · RSI 53.8 (Bullish) · MACD Bear · -8.1% from 52wH · Above POC
MSFT 484.31 +0.56% · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.5 (Strong) · MACD Bear · -12.5% from 52wH · Above POC
NVDA 217.56 -0.99% · Bull (above all) · RSI 54.2 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -8.0% from 52wH · Above POC
AMZN 265.84 +2.46% · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.6 (Bullish) · MACD Bear · -7.4% from 52wH · Above POC
META 546.03 +0.43% · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.1 (Weak) · MACD Bear · -31.0% from 52wH · Below POC
GOOGL 344.72 +0.15% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.5 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -15.6% from 52wH · Below POC
AVGO 362.48 -4.61% · Bear (below all) · RSI 35.3 (Weak) · MACD Bear · -26.8% from 52wH · Below POC
TSLA 351.12 +4.23% · Mixed (>20 <50 <200) · RSI 53.4 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -29.6% from 52wH · Below POC
COST 956.99 -0.45% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 52.8 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -12.7% from 52wH · Above POC
NFLX 80.22 +3.15% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 63.9 (Strong) · MACD Bull · -36.7% from 52wH · Above POC
AMD 466.42 -3.71% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 44.2 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -20.2% from 52wH · Below POC
ADBE 272.47 +3.55% · Bull (above all) · RSI 61.4 (Strong) · MACD Bear · -26.5% from 52wH · Above POC
QCOM 161.91 +1.07% · Bear (below all) · RSI 44.5 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -37.7% from 52wH · Below POC
TMUS 182.36 -0.21% · Mixed (>20 <50 <200) · RSI 51.9 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -30.3% from 52wH · Above POC
LIN 481.13 +0.51% · Bear (below all) · RSI 39.8 (Weak) · MACD Bear · -12.2% from 52wH · Below POC
ISRG 397.72 +1.67% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 57.1 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -34.1% from 52wH · Above POC
INTU 362.47 +3.44% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 66.9 (Strong) · MACD Bull · -49.6% from 52wH · Above POC
CSCO 110.55 -0.95% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 40.7 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -15.2% from 52wH · Below POC
TXN 267.45 -1.76% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 40.7 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -19.9% from 52wH · Below POC
AMAT 496.17 -3.53% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 43.8 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -32.9% from 52wH · Below POC
BKNG 213 +2.28% · Bull (above all) · RSI 65.2 (Strong) · MACD Bear · -8.1% from 52wH · Above POC
PANW 359.76 -3.84% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 52.4 (Bullish) · MACD Bear · -9.8% from 52wH · Above POC
MU 937.11 -0.39% · Bull (above all) · RSI 51.8 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -25.3% from 52wH · Below POC
LRCX 307.17 -6.33% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 46.2 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -29.9% from 52wH · Below POC
KLAC 187.27 -3.86% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 41.3 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -39.1% from 52wH · Below POC
ADI 373.26 -0.89% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 45 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -16.3% from 52wH · Below POC
REGN 840.84 +3.78% · Bull (above all) · RSI 83 (Overbought) · MACD Bull · -0.5% from 52wH · Above POC
SNPS 401.24 -0.78% · Bear (below all) · RSI 45.2 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -35.8% from 52wH · Below POC
CDNS 314.98 -0.49% · Bear (below all) · RSI 32.1 (Weak) · MACD Bear · -24.4% from 52wH · Below POC
MELI 1908.65 +7.28% · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.7 (Bullish) · MACD Bear · -25.1% from 52wH · Above POC
CRWD 201.63 -5.30% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 48.6 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -11.4% from 52wH · Above POC
MAR 359.95 +0.73% · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 47.9 (Neutral) · MACD Bull · -12.4% from 52wH · Below POC
ABNB 186.39 +1.71% · Bull (above all) · RSI 72.4 (Overbought) · MACD Bull · -1.5% from 52wH · Above POC
MRVL 237.27 +9.85% · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.5 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -28.1% from 52wH · Below POC
DASH 220.22 +1.79% · Bull (above all) · RSI 67.9 (Strong) · MACD Bull · -22.9% from 52wH · Above POC
FTNT 152.85 -3.27% · Mixed (<20 >50 >200) · RSI 44.3 (Neutral) · MACD Bear · -11.2% from 52wH · Above POC
CEG 274.17 +2.75% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 54 (Bullish) · MACD Bull · -33.6% from 52wH · Above POC
WDAY 198.42 +4.08% · Bull (above all) · RSI 66.6 (Strong) · MACD Bull · -20.6% from 52wH · Above POC
PYPL 61.25 +1.36% · Bull (above all) · RSI 71.4 (Overbought) · MACD Bear · -22.7% from 52wH · Above POC
ORLY 91.2 +0.48% · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 53 (Bullish) · MACD Bear · -16.1% from 52wH · Above POC

Breadth summary: Bull above all three EMAs: 14 · Bull above 20/50 (below 200): 6 · Bear below 20/50 (above 200): 9 · Bear below all three: 6 · Mixed: 5.
MACD bullish 21/40 · RSI at or above 50 in 23/40 · trading above 60-day VWAP POC 22/40. Breadth is almost exactly balanced — which is the honest description of this index right now.


SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech
AAPL +2.19% · MSFT +0.56% · NVDA -0.99% · AMZN +2.46% · GOOGL +0.15% · META +0.43% · TSLA +4.23% · AVGO -4.61%
Split badly. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA and AMZN are all Bull-above-all with RSI in the 53-64 band and trading above their POC — the four largest weights are genuinely healthy. GOOGL is below its 20 and 50 EMAs, and META is the group's problem child: Bear-below-all, RSI 37.1, 31.0% below its 52-week high and only 5.0% above its 52-week low. AVGO has decoupled hard from the group.

Semiconductors
NVDA -0.99% · AVGO -4.61% · AMD -3.71% · QCOM +1.07% · TXN -1.76% · AMAT -3.53% · MU -0.39% · LRCX -6.33% · KLAC -3.86% · ADI -0.89% · MRVL +9.85%
The weakest group in the index by a distance. Nine of eleven names fell, and the semi-cap equipment complex was hit hardest — LRCX -6.33%, KLAC -3.86%, AMAT -3.53%, all three below their 20 and 50 EMAs and all three below POC. AVGO printed relative volume 1.77 on a 4.6% decline: that is institutional selling, not drift. MRVL's +9.85% on rv 1.81 is an isolated single-name event, not a group signal. Only NVDA (Bull above all) and MRVL hold constructive structure.

Software / Cloud
MSFT +0.56% · ADBE +3.55% · INTU +3.44% · PANW -3.84% · SNPS -0.78% · CDNS -0.49% · CRWD -5.30% · WDAY +4.08% · FTNT -3.27%
A clean two-way split along sub-sector lines. Application software is strong — WDAY (RSI 66.6, Bull above all), INTU (RSI 66.9), ADBE (RSI 61.4, Bull above all). Cybersecurity is being sold: CRWD -5.30% on rv 1.43, PANW -3.84%, FTNT -3.27%, all three now below their 20 EMA. EDA (SNPS, CDNS) is the weakest corner of the whole index — CDNS carries the lowest RSI of all 40 names at 32.1 and both are Bear-below-all.

Consumer / Internet
AMZN +2.46% · COST -0.45% · NFLX +3.15% · TMUS -0.21% · BKNG +2.28% · MELI +7.28% · MAR +0.73% · ABNB +1.71% · DASH +1.79% · PYPL +1.36% · ORLY +0.48%
The clear leadership group. Nine of eleven higher. Travel is exceptional: ABNB closed at its 52-week high (RSI 72.4), BKNG RSI 65.2 and Bull-above-all only 8.1% off its high. MELI +7.28% on rv 1.47 reclaimed its 200 EMA. DASH RSI 67.9, PYPL RSI 71.4. If money is rotating out of semis, this is where it is landing.

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG +1.67% · REGN +3.78%
Small group, outsized signal. REGN closed at 840.84, just 0.5% off its 52-week high of 844.92, with RSI 83.0 — the strongest and most extended reading in the index. ISRG is Bull-above-20/50 and above POC. This mirrors the broader market's Thursday rotation into health care.

Industrial / Other
LIN +0.51% · CEG +2.75% · CSCO -0.95%
LIN is Bear-below-all with RSI 39.8 despite the small green print — a weak bounce inside a downtrend, and it traded rv 1.28. CEG rallied 2.75% and holds above its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains 33.6% below its high and below the 200. CSCO is below its 20 and 50.


TOP SWING SETUPS
All entries, stops and targets derived from Wednesday 19 August levels. Validate against Thursday's close before committing capital.

1. AVGO — SHORT (highest conviction)
Entry: 367.00 on a retest · Stop: 374.30 · T1: 355.42 · T2: 348.37 · T3: 339.12 · R:R: 1.59 to T1, 2.55 to T2
Confluence: Bear-below-all-three-EMAs. RSI 35.3. Fell 4.61% on relative volume 1.77 — the heaviest distribution print in the index. Trading 8.6% below its 60-day VWAP POC (398.75), so there is no volume shelf underneath until the 348-355 zone. Entry sits at Camarilla R3/R4 (366.96/371.45); stop above the 19 Aug high of 373.91. Targets are classic S1/S2/S3. ATR 16.43 gives the move room. Leader of the weakest sector — this is the cleanest short in the book.

2. WDAY — LONG
Entry: 198.40 · Stop: 191.60 · T1: 207.00 · T2: 214.32 · R:R: 1.27 to T1, 2.34 to T2
Confluence: Bull above all three EMAs with a wide, healthy stack (EMA20 175.66, EMA50 157.32, EMA200 163.50). RSI 66.6 — strong without being overbought. Closed +4.08% and near the session high (200.79 of a 189.46-200.79 range). Trading 34% above its POC of 147.92, so all recent volume is in profit and there is no overhead supply from the last 60 days. Stop sits just under pivot S1 (191.66); T1 is pivot R2 (207.55), T2 is pivot R3 (214.32). ATR 11.59.

3. MELI — LONG
Entry: 1,910.00 · Stop: 1,866.00 · T1: 1,960.88 · T2: 2,013.11 · R:R: 1.16 to T1, 2.34 to T2
Confluence: +7.28% on relative volume 1.47 — a genuine institutional day. The move reclaimed the 200 EMA at 1,871.33, flipping the name to Bull-above-all. Closed 1,908.65 in a 1,771-1,918 range, i.e. at the top of the day. RSI 57.7 leaves real headroom. Stop is placed just beneath the reclaimed 200 EMA — if that fails the thesis is void. Above POC (1,751.82). Targets are pivot R1 and R2. ATR 70.25 — size this one down.

4. AMZN — LONG
Entry: 265.84 · Stop: 260.70 · T1: 271.43 · T2: 276.45 · R:R: 1.09 to T1, 2.06 to T2
Confluence: The strongest mega-cap on a structural basis: Bull above all three EMAs, only 7.4% below its 52-week high (the best of the megacaps), above POC 249.40, RSI 55.6 with room. Closed +2.46% at 265.84 in a 258.58-266.40 range — a top-of-range close. Stop below pivot S1 (260.81) and the session low. ATR 7.86. Lower R:R than the others but a materially higher probability of working.

5. CDNS — SHORT
Entry: 316.00 · Stop: 322.00 · T1: 308.67 · T2: 305.34 · R:R: 1.22 to T1, 1.78 to T2
Confluence: The weakest RSI in the entire index at 32.1, and Bear-below-all-three-EMAs (EMA20 332.42, EMA50 344.79, EMA200 334.68 — note the bearish 20-under-50 ordering). Trading 13.5% below its POC of 364.24, meaning every buyer from the last 60 days is underwater and rallies will meet supply. Its sector twin SNPS is in the same condition, confirming it is an EDA-wide de-rating rather than a single-name issue. Narrow 312.01-318.50 range means a tight stop is viable. ATR 11.70.


INTRADAY SETUPS
A. NDX index — pivot bounce long (levels are FRESH, 20 Aug)
Direction: Long · Entry: 29,095-29,118 · Stop: 29,020 · T1: 29,237 · T2: 29,355 · R:R: 1.55 to T1, 3.10 to T2
Reasoning: Pivot S1 (29,095), the 50 EMA (29,060) and today's low (29,118) form a three-way confluence in a 58-point band. Today's close was 95 points off the low on below-average volume, which argues buyers are present down there. Stop goes beneath the whole cluster. First target is the central pivot, second is the R1/EMA20 wall.

B. NDX index — resistance rejection short (levels are FRESH, 20 Aug)
Direction: Short · Entry: 29,355-29,366 · Stop: 29,430 · T1: 29,237 · T2: 29,118 · R:R: 1.61 to T1, 3.23 to T2
Reasoning: Pivot R1 sits on top of the 20 EMA. Price lost this EMA today and a first retest from below is the textbook fade location. Invalidation is a 15-minute close above 29,430, which would put price back inside Wednesday's range and change the character of the pullback.

C. AAPL — Camarilla range fade (19 Aug levels)
Direction: Long at range low · Entry: 314.17 (Cam S3) · Stop: 311.51 (Cam S4) · T1: 317.72 (Cam R1) · T2: 319.49 (Cam R3) · R:R: 1.33 to T1, 2.00 to T2
Reasoning: Classic Camarilla mean-reversion. AAPL is Bull-above-all with RSI 53.8, relative volume 0.93 (no urgency in either direction) and sits 3.2% above POC 306.94. Low-relative-volume names in an established uptrend are the correct candidates for S3-to-R1 range trades. Cam S4 at 311.51 is the regime-change line — below it, stand aside.

D. NVDA — Camarilla breakout long (19 Aug levels)
Direction: Long · Entry: above 220.92 (Cam R4) · Stop: 217.00 (Cam S1) · T1: 225.17 (pivot R2) · T2: 227.48 (pivot R3) · R:R: 1.09 to T1, 1.67 to T2
Reasoning: Camarilla R4 breaks are trend-day triggers. NVDA is Bull-above-all (EMA20 215.39, EMA50 210.11, EMA200 194.95) and 4.5% above POC 208.11, so structure supports upside continuation. It also has the tightest Camarilla band of the megacaps (R4-S4 spread of just 6.72 against an ATR of 6.59), which is the compression signature that precedes expansion. Only take this on relative volume above 1.2 — it printed 0.82 on the 19th.

E. AVGO — Camarilla breakdown short (19 Aug levels)
Direction: Short · Entry: below 353.52 (Cam S4) · Stop: 361.00 (Cam S1) · T1: 348.37 (pivot S2) · T2: 339.12 (pivot S3) · R:R: 0.69 to T1, 1.93 to T2
Reasoning: The intraday expression of the swing thesis above. Cam S4 breakdowns work best when the daily structure is already broken and volume is confirming — both true here (Bear-below-all, rv 1.77). Skip T1 and run for T2; the R:R only justifies the trade on the full move.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD — TOP 5 BY WEIGHT (19 Aug data)
NVDA — 217.56
Cam: S4 214.20 · S3 215.88 · S1 217.00 || R1 218.12 · R3 219.24 · R4 220.92
Classic: S3 209.15 · S2 212.95 · S1 215.26 || P 219.06 || R1 221.37 · R2 225.17 · R3 227.48
EMA20 215.39 · EMA50 210.11 · EMA200 194.95 · POC 208.11 · Prev H/L 222.87/216.76 · 52w H/L 236.54/164.07

AAPL — 316.83
Cam: S4 311.51 · S3 314.17 · S1 315.94 || R1 317.72 · R3 319.49 · R4 322.15
Classic: S3 301.51 · S2 305.56 · S1 311.19 || P 315.24 || R1 320.87 · R2 324.92 · R3 330.55
EMA20 312.43 · EMA50 309.30 · EMA200 282.63 · POC 306.94 · Prev H/L 319.28/309.60 · 52w H/L 344.57/223.78

MSFT — 484.31
Cam: S4 478.84 · S3 481.58 · S1 483.40 || R1 485.22 · R3 487.04 · R4 489.78
Classic: S3 469.41 · S2 474.38 · S1 479.35 || P 484.32 || R1 489.29 · R2 494.26 · R3 499.23
EMA20 467.26 · EMA50 437.06 · EMA200 430.93 · POC 414.63 · Prev H/L 489.30/479.36 · 52w H/L 553.72/349.20

AMZN — 265.84
Cam: S4 261.54 · S3 263.69 · S1 265.12 || R1 266.56 · R3 267.99 · R4 270.14
Classic: S3 252.99 · S2 255.79 · S1 260.81 || P 263.61 || R1 268.63 · R2 271.43 · R3 276.45
EMA20 261.10 · EMA50 254.45 · EMA200 240.05 · POC 249.40 · Prev H/L 266.40/258.58 · 52w H/L 287.20/196.00

AVGO — 362.48
Cam: S4 353.52 · S3 358.00 · S1 360.99 || R1 363.97 · R3 366.96 · R4 371.45
Classic: S3 339.12 · S2 348.37 · S1 355.42 || P 364.67 || R1 371.72 · R2 380.97 · R3 388.02
EMA20 396.39 · EMA50 394.55 · EMA200 365.89 · POC 398.75 · Prev H/L 373.91/357.61 · 52w H/L 495.00/281.87


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Bear-below-all-three-EMAs (6 names): META (RSI 37.1), AVGO (35.3), LIN (39., QCOM (44.5), SNPS (45.2), CDNS (32.1). Every one of these has EMA20 sitting below EMA50 — the death-cross configuration is already in place, not pending.

2. Semiconductor de-rating: 9 of 11 semis fell on the 19th, and the equipment names (LRCX -6.33%, KLAC -3.86%, AMAT -3.53%) are 29-39% below their 52-week highs. AVGO's 4.61% drop on relative volume 1.77 is the standout distribution print. Semis lead this index both up and down; this is the warning that matters most.

3. META at the edge: 546.03 is 31.0% below its 52-week high and just 5.0% above its 52-week low of 520.26. It is below all three EMAs and below POC 598.03. A break of 520 would be a new 52-week low in a top-10 index weight.

4. Overbought and extended: REGN RSI 83.0 (0.5% off its 52-week high), ABNB 72.4 (closed AT its 52-week high), PYPL 71.4. These are not sell signals in themselves, but they are poor entry locations and the first candidates to give back gains if the index tests 28,976.

5. Cybersecurity rolling over: CRWD -5.30% on rv 1.43, PANW -3.84%, FTNT -3.27%. All three lost their 20 EMA on the same session. A sector that had been a reliable bid is now a source of supply.

6. Index has lost the 20 EMA with MACD histogram narrowing three sessions running and VIX up roughly 7% to 16.02. None of this is severe in isolation; together it argues for reduced size rather than fresh aggression.

No RSI divergences detected— neither bearish at the highs nor bullish at the lows. No name in the 40 is currently oversold (RSI below 30).


EVENTS CALENDAR
Friday 21 August
US Flash PMIs (Manufacturing and Services), 14:45 UK. The only scheduled US data of note. With FOMC minutes having landed hawkish and 30-year yields near a two-decade high, a hot services print is the risk case for equities.

Week of 24 August
Wednesday 26 August — NVDA Q2 earnings, after the US close. The single largest scheduled catalyst for this index. Consensus is looking for roughly $92bn revenue and $2.06 EPS. Given the semiconductor weakness described above, the setup into the print is unusually asymmetric: the group is already being sold, so a miss or soft guide compounds an existing trend rather than starting a new one.
27-29 August — Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote in the role. Official topic: "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy". Markets will be reading it for whether the hawkishness in the minutes is his own position.
Also expected late August: CRWD, WDAY, MRVL and ADI results. Confirm exact dates with your broker — several of these have moved in recent quarters.

Live geopolitical risk
Strait of Hormuz / Iran. President Trump has threatened a "crushing economic operation" against Iran; Tehran has dismissed it. WTI is at $86.78 and Brent at $93.98, both near one-month highs. An energy shock is the fastest route from the current orderly pullback to something disorderly. Gold $4,543.60, silver $66.86.


Bottom line: A tired but not broken tape. The index sits between its 20 and 50 EMAs with RSI at 48.8, breadth split almost exactly down the middle, and volume falling on down days — that is consolidation, not distribution. The tradeable edge this week is not directional at the index level, it is the rotation underneath it: short the semiconductor and EDA complex, long travel, consumer internet and application software. Levels to watch: 29,355-29,366 on the upside, 29,060-29,095 on the downside.

Report: 20 August 2026 22:05 GMT. Component data: close Wednesday 19 August 2026. Index data: close Thursday 20 August 2026. Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 - Daily Technical Report - Wednesday 19 August 2026
Data: Close 19 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,426.02 | Change: -64.94 (-0.22%) | Range: 29,288.75-29,652.30



MARKET OVERVIEW
NAS100 closed at 29,426.02, down 64.94 points (-0.22%), after opening at 29,580.85 and printing a session high of 29,652.30. The index sold off through the afternoon and settled at 29,426.02, only 137 points off the low of 29,288.75 - a weak close in the lower quarter of the range. Volume came in at 1.27bn shares against a 300-day average of 1.31bn, so the decline lacked conviction.

This was the third consecutive lower close. From the 30,762.20 swing high the index is now -4.34% lower, and it has given back 658 points in three sessions.

Drivers: The FOMC minutes released this afternoon were the session pivot - the index was green into the release and closed on the lows afterwards, with traders repositioning ahead of Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Underneath the surface the tape was split: chip-equipment and cyber names were hit hard while consumer internet, biotech and mega-cap software held up. A rally in the 30-year, taking long-end yields down roughly 10bp to 5.18%, gave some relief but was not enough to stop the fade.

Breadth: 23 advancers versus 17 decliners across the 40 components tracked, average component move +0.45%. Positive breadth with a negative index tells you the damage is concentrated in the heavyweights - AVGO alone fell 4.61%.

VIX: 15.28, down 3.54% and sitting near the 2026 low. Options are not pricing stress, which cuts both ways: cheap hedges, but also complacent positioning into a Jackson Hole week.

Bias: Cautious / neutral-to-bearish short term while price is below the 20 EMA, but the medium-term uptrend is intact above the 50 and 200 EMA. This is a pullback within an uptrend, not a trend change - yet.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (daily): Price 29,426.02 | EMA20 29,600.41 | EMA50 29,120.68 | EMA200 27,054.42

The stack is still correctly ordered for an uptrend - EMA20 above EMA50 above EMA200 - but price has now dropped below the 20 EMA for the first time in this leg. That puts NAS100 in a Mixed classification: below the 20, above the 50 and 200.

Structure: Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly remain intact. On the daily the index has broken the short-term rising channel that carried it from the June low. The 29,120 area (EMA50) is the line that matters - it has not been tested since that low, and it coincides almost exactly with the S2 pivot at 29,092.

Phase: Late-stage advance entering a corrective/consolidation phase. Distribution signals are present in semiconductors but absent in the broader index.



MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 51.39. Sitting almost exactly on the midline. It has fallen from the high-60s over three sessions but has not broken 50 decisively. No bullish or bearish divergence is present at the index level - price and RSI made their highs together at 30,762. A sustained close with RSI under 45 would confirm the correction has legs.

MACD: MACD line 200.22, signal 131.65, histogram +68.56. Still positive and still above signal, so the medium-term momentum reading is bullish - but the histogram is contracting from its peak. A bearish cross is likely within 2-4 sessions if 29,426 is not reclaimed quickly. Treat the current positive reading as decaying, not confirming.

Volume: 1.27bn against a 1.31bn average. Below-average volume on a down day is constructive - this looks like buyers stepping aside rather than sellers stepping in. Compare with the component picture, where AVGO (rv 1.77), MRVL (1.81), ADI (1.48), MELI (1.47) and CRWD (1.43) all traded heavy. Volume is rotating, not exiting.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,622.63 - classic pivot R1, and today's session high 29,652.30 sits just above. First real barrier.
R2 29,819.23 - reclaim level. Above here the pullback is over.
R3 29,986.17 - confluence with the psychological 30,000 handle and the 29,995 close from 17 Aug.

Support
S1 29,259.09 - classic pivot S1, just below today's low of 29,288.75. The first line of defence.
S2 29,092.15 - the key one. Sits on top of the EMA50 at 29,120.68. Losing this flips the medium-term picture.
S3 28,895.54 - measured downside if S2 fails.

Classic pivots: S2 29,092.15 . S1 29,259.09 . P 29,455.69 . R1 29,622.63 . R2 29,819.23

Round numbers: 29,500 (immediate overhead, and just above the pivot) . 29,000 (major psychological floor, sits between S2 and S3) . 30,000 (the level to reclaim).

Moving averages as levels: EMA20 29,600.41 (now resistance) . EMA50 29,120.68 (primary support) . EMA200 27,054.42 (structural floor, 8.1% below).



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Format: Ticker . Close . Change . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI . MACD . percent from 52w high . POC

MRVL 237.27 . +9.85% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.5 Bullish . MACD Bull . -28.1% off high . below POC
MELI 1,908.65 . +7.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Bullish . MACD Bear . -25.1% off high . above POC
TSLA 351.12 . +4.23% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 53.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -29.6% off high . below POC
WDAY 198.42 . +4.08% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.6 Strong . MACD Bull . -20.6% off high . above POC
REGN 840.84 . +3.78% . Bull (above all) . RSI 83.0 Overbought . MACD Bull . -0.5% off high . above POC
ADBE 272.47 . +3.55% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.4 Strong . MACD Bear . -26.5% off high . above POC
INTU 362.47 . +3.44% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 66.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -49.6% off high . above POC
NFLX 80.22 . +3.15% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -36.7% off high . above POC
CEG 274.17 . +2.75% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 54.0 Bullish . MACD Bull . -33.6% off high . above POC
AMZN 265.84 . +2.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -7.4% off high . above POC
BKNG 213.00 . +2.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.2 Strong . MACD Bear . -8.1% off high . above POC
AAPL 316.83 . +2.19% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.8 Bullish . MACD Bear . -8.1% off high . above POC
DASH 220.22 . +1.79% . Bull (above all) . RSI 67.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -22.9% off high . above POC
ABNB 186.39 . +1.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 72.4 Overbought . MACD Bull . -1.5% off high . above POC
ISRG 397.72 . +1.67% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 57.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -34.1% off high . above POC
PYPL 61.25 . +1.36% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.4 Overbought . MACD Bear . -22.7% off high . above POC
QCOM 161.91 . +1.07% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.5 Neutral . MACD Bull . -37.7% off high . below POC
MAR 359.95 . +0.73% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.9 Neutral . MACD Bull . -12.4% off high . below POC
MSFT 484.31 . +0.56% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.5 Strong . MACD Bear . -12.5% off high . above POC
LIN 481.13 . +0.51% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -12.2% off high . below POC
ORLY 91.20 . +0.48% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 53.0 Bullish . MACD Bear . -16.1% off high . above POC
META 546.03 . +0.43% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -31.0% off high . below POC
GOOGL 344.72 . +0.15% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.6% off high . below POC
TMUS 182.36 . -0.21% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -30.3% off high . above POC
MU 937.11 . -0.39% . Bull (above all) . RSI 51.8 Bullish . MACD Bull . -25.3% off high . below POC
COST 956.99 . -0.45% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.8 Bullish . MACD Bull . -12.7% off high . above POC
CDNS 314.98 . -0.49% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.1 Weak . MACD Bear . -24.4% off high . below POC
SNPS 401.24 . -0.78% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.8% off high . below POC
ADI 373.26 . -0.89% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -16.3% off high . below POC
CSCO 110.55 . -0.95% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.2% off high . below POC
NVDA 217.56 . -0.99% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.2 Bullish . MACD Bull . -8.0% off high . above POC
TXN 267.45 . -1.76% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -19.9% off high . below POC
FTNT 152.85 . -3.27% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 44.3 Neutral . MACD Bear . -11.2% off high . above POC
AMAT 496.17 . -3.53% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.8 Neutral . MACD Bear . -32.9% off high . below POC
AMD 466.42 . -3.71% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -20.2% off high . below POC
PANW 359.76 . -3.84% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 52.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -9.8% off high . above POC
KLAC 187.27 . -3.86% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -39.1% off high . below POC
AVGO 362.48 . -4.61% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -26.8% off high . below POC
CRWD 201.63 . -5.30% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 48.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -11.4% off high . above POC
LRCX 307.17 . -6.33% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -29.9% off high . below POC

Totals: Bull 20 . Bear 15 . Mixed 5 . MACD bullish 21 of 40 . Advancers 23, decliners 17.



SECTOR BREAKDOWN
Mega-cap Tech - average +0.84%, 7 of 9 higher, average RSI 51.5
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and NVDA all hold Bull (above all) status. TSLA led with +4.23% but remains Mixed and below both the 50 and 200 EMA - a bounce, not a trend. The two problems are AVGO (-4.61%, below all EMAs, RSI 35.3) and META, which is the single weakest large-cap in the index: EMA20 583.84 under EMA50 596.08 under EMA200 623.43, a fully inverted stack, and only 5.0% above its 52-week low. GOOGL is quietly deteriorating - below the 20 and 50 EMA, below POC, RSI 46.5.

Semiconductors - average -1.06%, only 2 of 9 higher, average RSI 46.1
The clear laggard group and the source of today's index damage. LRCX -6.33%, KLAC -3.86%, AMD -3.71%, AMAT -3.53%, AVGO -4.61%. Six of the nine sit below both their 20 and 50 EMA and eight of nine are trading below their 60-day VWAP POC. MRVL was the standout exception at +9.85% on the Google share-purchase agreement (up to $12.2bn) and the Bravera SC6 / Structera X / Photonic Fabric AI-memory launches - but note it still closed 20 points below its own POC at 257.63, so even that move has overhead supply. MU held up relatively well at -0.39% and remains Bull (above all).

Software and Cloud - average -0.40%, 3 of 9 higher, average RSI 50.9
Bifurcated. WDAY (+4.08%), ADBE (+3.55%) and INTU (+3.44%) were strong; CRWD (-5.30%, rv 1.43) and PANW (-3.84%) were dumped ahead of their reporting windows. CDNS is the weakest name in the entire index on momentum - RSI 32.1, below all three EMAs, EMA20 (332.42) beneath both the EMA50 (344.79) and EMA200 (334.68). SNPS is within 9.6% of its 52-week low.

Consumer and Internet - average +1.90%, 7 of 8 higher, average RSI 61.0
The strongest sector on the day and the reason breadth stayed positive. MELI +7.28% on 1.47x volume, BKNG +2.28%, DASH +1.79%, ABNB +1.71% to a new 52-week high at 189.20. PYPL RSI 71.4 and ABNB RSI 72.4 are both overbought. COST was the only decliner at -0.45% and is the odd one out - it sits above its 20 and 50 EMA but below the 200 at 963.06.

Healthcare and Biotech - average +2.72%, 2 of 2 higher, average RSI 70.0
REGN +3.78% and closed at 840.84, printing a new 52-week high of 844.92. RSI 83.0 is deeply overbought - the trend is powerful but the entry is not here. ISRG +1.67%, Bull (above 20/50) but still 34.1% off its high and below the 200 EMA at 446.76.

Industrial and Other - average +1.02%, 2 of 3 higher, average RSI 48.6
CEG +2.75% continues its recovery, above the 20 and 50 EMA but 33.6% off its high. LIN is the concern: +0.51% on the day but RSI 39.8, below all three EMAs, and trading on 1.28x relative volume. TMUS -0.21%, Mixed, above the 20 but below the 50 and 200.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. AVGO - SHORT on retest (highest conviction)
Entry: 371.70 . Stop: 382.00 . T1: 348.37 . T2: 339.12 . R:R: 2.3 to T1, 3.2 to T2
The cleanest bearish structure in the index. Closed 362.48, down 4.61% on 1.77x relative volume - that is genuine distribution, not drift. Bear (below all): price is under the EMA20 396.39, EMA50 394.55 and now the EMA200 365.89. RSI 35.3 and falling. Trading 36 points beneath its POC at 398.75, so every rally into the mid-390s meets trapped supply. Sell the retest into R1 371.72 / today's high 373.91, stop above R2 380.97. Targets are the S2 and S3 pivots at 348.37 and 339.12. Invalidated on a daily close back above 382.

2. MRVL - LONG on pullback
Entry: 228.40 . Stop: 209.00 . T1: 257.63 . T2: 263.20 . R:R: 1.5 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Best momentum in the index: +9.85% on 1.81x volume, Bull (above all) with the EMA20 (216.23) and EMA50 (216.09) now stacked tightly beneath price and the EMA200 far below at 162.95. The catalyst is real - a filing disclosing Google can buy up to 58.97m shares at $206.58 tied to procurement targets through FY2033, plus the AI-memory product launches. Do not chase the 245.49 high; wait for the S1 pivot at 228.42 to be tested. First target is the POC at 257.63, which is the genuine overhead barrier. Risk: earnings 27 August - close or halve before the print, and the ATR of 18.38 means position size needs to be small.

3. META - SHORT on bounce
Entry: 562.50 . Stop: 573.00 . T1: 537.27 . T2: 520.26 . R:R: 2.4 to T1, 4.1 to T2
Fully inverted EMA stack - 20 (583.84) below 50 (596.08) below 200 (623.43) - which is the textbook confirmed downtrend. RSI 37.1, MACD -11.90 versus signal -7.69 and widening, and price is 52 points below the POC at 598.03. Down 31.0% from the 52-week high and only 25.77 points above the 52-week low at 520.26. Sell strength into the R2 pivot at 562.59 rather than chasing the low. T2 is the 52-week low itself, which is where I would take the bulk off.

4. REGN - LONG on pullback (momentum leader)
Entry: 822.50 . Stop: 799.00 . T1: 863.25 . T2: 881.59 . R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.5 to T2
Closed 840.84, +3.78%, at a new 52-week high of 844.92. Bull (above all) with EMA20 767.94, EMA50 720.51, EMA200 700.76 - a wide, healthy stack - and price is 175 points above the POC at 665.40, meaning zero overhead supply. The only problem is RSI 83.0, which is why this is a pullback entry and not a breakout entry. Buy the S1 pivot at 822.51, stop below the last consolidation shelf. If it never pulls back, let it go - chasing RSI 83 into R2 is how you buy the high.

5. MSFT - LONG on pullback
Entry: 474.40 . Stop: 462.00 . T1: 494.26 . T2: 510.00 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 2.9 to T2
Bull (above all) with a wide stack - EMA20 467.26, EMA50 437.06, EMA200 430.93 - and price 70 points clear of the POC at 414.63. RSI 63.5 is strong without being stretched. The caution flag is the MACD, which has rolled to bearish (23.05 versus signal 24.76), and relative volume of just 0.53 shows nobody is defending it. That combination argues for waiting: buy the S2 pivot at 474.38, which is 7 points above the EMA20 and gives a stop with room. Not a chase above 489.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. NVDA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Entry: 215.90 . Stop: 214.20 . T1: 218.12 . T2: 219.06 . R:R: 1.3 to T1
The 217.56 close sits inside the Camarilla S1/R1 band (217.00 to 218.12), which is the classic range-day signature - fade the extremes. The reason this one has an edge is confluence: Cam S3 at 215.88 sits directly on the EMA20 at 215.39 and just above the S1 pivot at 215.26. Three independent levels within 0.6 points. Buy that pocket, stop below Cam S4 214.20, first target Cam R1 and then the daily pivot at 219.06. Note NVDA reports Q2 FY27 on 26 August - intraday only, no overnight carry into that week without a plan.

2. AAPL - classic pivot bounce, LONG
Entry: 315.30 . Stop: 311.00 . T1: 320.87 . T2: 324.92 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.3 to T2
Closed 316.83, +2.19%, Bull (above all) and 10 points above the POC at 306.94. The daily pivot at 315.24 and Cam S1 at 315.94 are stacked right beneath the close, giving a tight, well-defined entry shelf. Stop goes under the S1 pivot at 311.19 and the EMA20 at 312.43 - if both fail the long thesis is wrong. Targets R1 320.87 then R2 324.92. Long bias only while price holds 315.

3. TSLA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Entry: 346.70 . Stop: 342.40 . T1: 352.58 . T2: 356.59 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.3 to T2
Best confluence of the intraday book: Cam S3 at 346.74 and the daily pivot at 346.15 are effectively the same level, with the EMA20 at 339.36 underneath as a secondary floor. Closed 351.12 after a 4.23% rally inside the Cam S1/R1 band. Stop below Cam S4 342.36. Context caution: TSLA is still Mixed - above the 20 EMA but below the EMA50 359.16 and EMA200 383.44, and 27 points below the POC at 378.33. This is an intraday long inside a broader downtrend. Do not hold it overnight expecting 372.

4. GOOGL - Camarilla range fade, SHORT
Entry: 346.40 . Stop: 348.10 . T1: 344.16 . T2: 343.05 . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.0 to T2
A very compressed Camarilla band (S1 344.16 to R1 345.28) around a 344.72 close - the tightest in the group, which means whichever side breaks first tends to run. I favour the short because the daily structure is deteriorating: Bear (below 20/50) with the EMA20 at 348.73 and EMA50 at 351.75 both overhead, RSI 46.5, MACD negative, and price 10 points under the POC at 354.96. Sell Cam R3 346.39, stop above Cam R4 348.06, which also sits under the EMA20 - a clean invalidation. Tight stop, so size accordingly.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD
NVDA - 217.56 (-0.99%)
Camarilla: S4 214.20 . S3 215.88 . S1 217.00 || R1 218.12 . R3 219.24 . R4 220.92
Classic: S3 209.15 . S2 212.95 . S1 215.26 . P 219.06 . R1 221.37 . R2 225.17 . R3 227.48
EMAs: 20 215.39 . 50 210.11 . 200 194.95 . POC: 208.11
Prev H/L: 222.87 / 216.76 . 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07 . ATR14: 6.59

AAPL - 316.83 (+2.19%)
Camarilla: S4 311.51 . S3 314.17 . S1 315.94 || R1 317.72 . R3 319.49 . R4 322.15
Classic: S3 301.51 . S2 305.56 . S1 311.19 . P 315.24 . R1 320.87 . R2 324.92 . R3 330.55
EMAs: 20 312.43 . 50 309.30 . 200 282.63 . POC: 306.94
Prev H/L: 319.28 / 309.60 . 52w H/L: 344.57 / 223.78 . ATR14: 7.67

MSFT - 484.31 (+0.56%)
Camarilla: S4 478.84 . S3 481.58 . S1 483.40 || R1 485.22 . R3 487.04 . R4 489.78
Classic: S3 469.41 . S2 474.38 . S1 479.35 . P 484.32 . R1 489.29 . R2 494.26 . R3 499.23
EMAs: 20 467.26 . 50 437.06 . 200 430.93 . POC: 414.63
Prev H/L: 489.30 / 479.36 . 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 . ATR14: 13.28

AMZN - 265.84 (+2.46%)
Camarilla: S4 261.54 . S3 263.69 . S1 265.12 || R1 266.56 . R3 267.99 . R4 270.14
Classic: S3 252.99 . S2 255.79 . S1 260.81 . P 263.61 . R1 268.63 . R2 271.43 . R3 276.45
EMAs: 20 261.10 . 50 254.45 . 200 240.05 . POC: 249.40
Prev H/L: 266.40 / 258.58 . 52w H/L: 287.20 / 196.00 . ATR14: 7.86

AVGO - 362.48 (-4.61%)
Camarilla: S4 353.52 . S3 358.00 . S1 360.99 || R1 363.97 . R3 366.96 . R4 371.45
Classic: S3 339.12 . S2 348.37 . S1 355.42 . P 364.67 . R1 371.72 . R2 380.97 . R3 388.02
EMAs: 20 396.39 . 50 394.55 . 200 365.89 . POC: 398.75
Prev H/L: 373.91 / 357.61 . 52w H/L: 495.00 / 281.87 . ATR14: 16.43



BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Semiconductor distribution. The group averaged -1.06% with only 2 of 9 higher. LRCX -6.33%, AVGO -4.61%, KLAC -3.86%, AMD -3.71%, AMAT -3.53%. AVGO in particular fell on 1.77x relative volume, which is the signature of institutional selling rather than a drift lower. Eight of the nine semis are trading below their 60-day VWAP POC.

2. META - confirmed downtrend, near 52-week low. EMA20 583.84 below EMA50 596.08 below EMA200 623.43. RSI 37.1. Down 31.0% from its high and only 5.0% above the 52-week low of 520.26. There is no technical support case here until it reclaims the 20 EMA.

3. CDNS - weakest momentum in the index. RSI 32.1, approaching oversold but with no divergence to support a bounce. Below all three EMAs, and the EMA20 (332.42) has dropped beneath both the EMA50 (344.79) and the EMA200 (334.68). Trading 49 points under its POC at 364.24.

4. AVGO death cross forming. The EMA20 at 396.39 has crossed below the EMA50 at 394.55, and today's close at 362.48 has now broken the EMA200 at 365.89. Losing a 200 EMA on 1.77x volume is a serious signal in a mega-cap.

5. Overbought extremes. REGN RSI 83.0 at a 52-week high, ABNB RSI 72.4 also at a 52-week high, PYPL RSI 71.4. All three are extended. PYPL additionally has a bearish MACD (2.56 versus signal 2.77) while at RSI 71 - the classic negative-momentum-at-the-high combination. Reduce, do not add.

6. Hidden weakness in the winners. MELI rose 7.28% but its MACD (12.28) is still well below signal (19.50) - the rally has not yet repaired momentum. ADBE closed +3.55% with MACD 9.51 versus signal 9.56, a marginal bearish cross. Both moves need a second day of follow-through to be trusted.

7. LIN. Nominally +0.51% but below all three EMAs with RSI 39.8 on 1.28x relative volume - being sold into strength.

8. Index-level warning. NAS100 has closed below its 20 EMA for the first time in this advance, three lower closes in a row, and the MACD histogram is contracting from its peak. Watch 29,092 (S2 / EMA50 confluence). A daily close beneath it changes the medium-term structure.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Thursday 20 August
Initial jobless claims - consensus around 255k versus 250k prior. Walmart earnings before the open, which sets the tone for the consumer read-through into COST, ORLY and the retail-adjacent names.

Friday 21 August
Flash US PMIs (manufacturing and services). The last significant data point before Jackson Hole.

The week ahead
Jackson Hole - Chair Warsh speaks. Today's FOMC minutes showed three dissenting officials pushing toward a hike, so the framing at Jackson Hole is the single biggest macro risk on the horizon.

Component earnings
NVDA - Wednesday 26 August, after the close. Q2 FY27, consensus revenue $93-95bn, roughly +67% year on year. This is the index event, not just a stock event.
MRVL - Thursday 27 August. Directly relevant to the swing long above; the ATR of 18.38 means an unhedged position through the print is a coin toss.
CRWD and PANW both have reporting windows approaching, which explains today's pre-earnings de-risking (-5.30% and -3.84%).



Report: 19 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 18 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 18 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,490.96 | Change: -504.42 (-1.68%) | Range: 29,425.08-29,677.29


MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 closed at 29,490.96, down 504.42 points (-1.68%) from Monday's 29,995.38. The index opened at 29,594.89, traded a 252-point range between 29,425.08 and 29,677.29, and settled in the lower third of that range on 1.268bn shares versus 1.156bn on Monday - a higher-volume down day, which is textbook distribution.

The damage was concentrated and it was concentrated in one place: semiconductors. The ten NAS100 chip names averaged -4.47% on the day. MRVL -7.82%, MU -6.98%, KLAC -5.33%, LRCX -4.63%, AMD -4.27%, AMAT -3.92%, TXN -3.77%, ADI -3.50%, AVGO -3.21%. META added to it with -4.42% on the heaviest relative volume in the index at 1.53x.

The macro driver was rates, not earnings. The 30-year Treasury yield printed a fresh 19-year high with the 10-year holding near 4.70%, on persistent inflation worry, elevated oil after fading US-Iran de-escalation hopes, and sovereign debt supply concerns. High-multiple growth is the most duration-sensitive part of the market and it took the hit. Money rotated defensively - healthcare and staples caught a bid, and inside our 40 that shows up as REGN +0.53% closing 1.3% off its 52-week high with an RSI of 78.5.

Breadth was poor but not washed out: 17 advancers, 23 decliners. VIX rose to roughly 15.85 from 15.19, a two-week high, but still historically subdued - this is a rotation, not a panic.

Bias: Cautiously bullish on the higher timeframe, defensive on the daily. The index is still above all three key EMAs and MACD is still positive. But the leadership group is breaking and the volume signature is wrong.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack: Close 29,490.96 > EMA20 29,365.56 > EMA50 29,108.21 > EMA200 27,030.59.

That is a fully bullish stack, in correct order, with no crossover damage yet. Close sits +125.40 (+0.43%) above the 20 EMA, +382.75 (+1.32%) above the 50 EMA, and +2,460.37 (+9.10%) above the 200 EMA. The 200 EMA is nearly 2,500 points below price - the primary uptrend is not remotely in question.

Structure: The index put in a swing high at 30,195.72 on 14 August and has now given back three sessions. Today's low of 29,425.08 is the first meaningful test of the 20 EMA zone since the rally began. Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly remain intact.

Phase: Late-stage advance moving into corrective/consolidation. The 20 EMA at 29,365.56 is the line that matters - it has been dynamic support throughout the leg. A daily close beneath it opens the 29,108 (50 EMA) shelf. Until then this is a pullback inside an uptrend, not a reversal.


MOMENTUM AND VOLUME INDICATORS
RSI(14): 52.20 - neutral, and notably it has rolled under its own signal MA at 54.45. RSI has fallen from the high-60s at the 14 August high without price making a lower low on the weekly, so no confirmed bearish divergence yet, but momentum is clearly decelerating. 50 is the pivot: hold it and the uptrend resumes, lose it and 40 comes into play fast.

MACD: 226.44, Signal 114.51, Histogram +111.93 - still bullish, MACD above signal and both above zero. But the histogram is compressing. Two more sessions of this and you get a bearish crossover with MACD still well above zero, which historically marks a pause rather than a top. Watch for the histogram to flip negative as the early warning.

Volume: 1.268bn today against 1.156bn Monday and a 1.22bn five-session average. Rising volume into a 1.68% decline is a distribution day. That is the single most concerning line in this report.

ATR(14): 501.48 - roughly 1.70% of index value. Today's 252-point range was only 0.50 ATR, so despite the headline drop this was an orderly, low-range slide rather than a volatility event. Position sizing should use 500 points as the daily noise band.


KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,637.13 - classic pivot R1, sits right at today's high of 29,677.29. First and most important reclaim level.
R2 29,783.31 - classic pivot R2, coincides with the 29,750-29,880 supply shelf from 12-17 August.
R3 29,889.34 - classic pivot R3, guards the 30,000 round number and the 30,195.72 swing high.

Support
S1 29,384.93 - classic pivot S1, effectively on top of the EMA20 at 29,365.56. Critical confluence.
S2 29,278.91 - classic pivot S2, air pocket between EMA20 and EMA50.
S3 29,132.73 - classic pivot S3, sits just above the EMA50 at 29,108.21. Major structural floor.

Classic pivots: S2 29,278.91 . S1 29,384.93 . P 29,531.11 . R1 29,637.13 . R2 29,783.31
Round numbers: 29,500 (price is glued to it) . 29,000 . 30,000
Moving averages: EMA20 29,365.56 . EMA50 29,108.21 . EMA200 27,030.59


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses STRICT EMA classification: close versus EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200. Every line below was verified programmatically - 0 mismatches across 40 stocks.

AAPL 310.03 +1.45% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.9 Neutral . MACD Bear . -10.0% from 52wH . POC Above
ABNB 183.25 +2.21% . Bull (above all) . RSI 70.6 Overbought . MACD Bull . -2.1% from 52wH . POC Above
ADBE 263.14 +3.58% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 57.4 Neutral . MACD Bear . -29.0% from 52wH . POC Above
ADI 376.63 -3.50% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -15.5% from 52wH . POC Below
AMAT 514.33 -3.92% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -30.5% from 52wH . POC Below
AMD 484.39 -4.27% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.5 Neutral . MACD Bull . -17.2% from 52wH . POC Below
AMZN 259.45 -0.71% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 50.9 Neutral . MACD Bear . -9.7% from 52wH . POC Above
AVGO 379.83 -3.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -23.3% from 52wH . POC Below
BKNG 208.25 +1.70% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -10.2% from 52wH . POC Above
CDNS 316.52 -2.15% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.9 Bearish . MACD Bear . -24.0% from 52wH . POC Below
CEG 266.83 -4.09% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.3% from 52wH . POC Above
COST 961.35 +0.82% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.1 Neutral . MACD Bull . -12.3% from 52wH . POC Above
CRWD 212.92 -0.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -6.4% from 52wH . POC Above
CSCO 111.61 -1.14% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 42.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -14.4% from 52wH . POC Below
DASH 216.35 +1.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -24.2% from 52wH . POC Above
FTNT 158.01 +1.39% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 49.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -8.2% from 52wH . POC Above
GOOGL 344.20 +0.06% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.2 Neutral . MACD Bear . -15.8% from 52wH . POC Below
INTU 350.41 +4.41% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -51.4% from 52wH . POC Above
ISRG 391.18 +0.22% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 54.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.2% from 52wH . POC Above
KLAC 194.79 -5.33% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -36.6% from 52wH . POC Below
LIN 478.71 +0.92% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.7 Bearish . MACD Bear . -12.7% from 52wH . POC Below
LRCX 327.92 -4.63% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -25.2% from 52wH . POC Below
MAR 357.33 +0.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -13.1% from 52wH . POC Below
MELI 1779.14 -0.47% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -30.2% from 52wH . POC Above
META 543.82 -4.42% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.2 Bearish . MACD Bear . -31.2% from 52wH . POC Below
MRVL 216.00 -7.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 50.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -34.5% from 52wH . POC Below
MSFT 481.63 +0.27% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.6 Bullish . MACD Bear . -13.0% from 52wH . POC Above
MU 941.10 -6.98% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -25.0% from 52wH . POC Below
NFLX 77.77 +2.30% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 58.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -38.6% from 52wH . POC Above
NVDA 219.74 -2.34% . Bull (above all) . RSI 56.6 Neutral . MACD Bull . -7.1% from 52wH . POC Above
ORLY 90.76 +0.59% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 51.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -16.5% from 52wH . POC Above
PANW 374.14 -0.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI 59.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -6.2% from 52wH . POC Above
PYPL 60.43 -0.07% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.1 Bullish . MACD Bear . -23.7% from 52wH . POC Above
QCOM 160.19 -1.23% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -38.4% from 52wH . POC Below
REGN 810.24 +0.53% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.5 Overbought . MACD Bull . -1.3% from 52wH . POC Above
SNPS 404.41 -2.13% . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -35.4% from 52wH . POC Below
TMUS 182.75 +1.46% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 52.4 Neutral . MACD Bull . -30.1% from 52wH . POC Above
TSLA 336.93 -0.70% . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -32.5% from 52wH . POC Below
TXN 272.24 -3.77% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.2 Neutral . MACD Bull . -18.5% from 52wH . POC Below
WDAY 190.64 -0.29% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.6 Bullish . MACD Bull . -23.7% from 52wH . POC Above

Tally: Bull above all 13 . Bull above 20/50 6 . Bear below 20/50 9 . Bear below all 8 . Mixed 4 | 25 of 40 MACD bullish | 22 of 40 above 60-day VWAP POC | 17 advancers / 23 decliners


SECTOR GROUPING

MEGA-CAP TECH
AAPL +1.45% . MSFT +0.27% . NVDA -2.34% . AMZN -0.71% . META -4.42% . GOOGL +0.06% . TSLA -0.70%
Split down the middle. MSFT and NVDA hold bullish EMA stacks and remain the structural anchors. AAPL and AMZN slipped below the 20 EMA but hold the 50 and 200. GOOGL and TSLA are below both the 20 and 50. META is the outlier and the problem child - below all three EMAs, RSI 36.2, 31.2% off its high, on the heaviest volume in the index.

SEMICONDUCTORS
AVGO -3.21% . AMD -4.27% . QCOM -1.23% . TXN -3.77% . AMAT -3.92% . MU -6.98% . LRCX -4.63% . KLAC -5.33% . ADI -3.50% . MRVL -7.82%
The epicentre. Average -4.47% on the session with five names on above-average relative volume (ADI 1.49, AVGO 1.19, KLAC 1.12, MRVL 1.12, AMAT 1.08). Seven of ten now sit below both the 20 and 50 EMA, and eight of ten are below their 60-day POC. Only MU, LRCX and MRVL still carry a bullish EMA stack, and all three did so while falling 4.6-7.8% today, which means those stacks are one or two sessions from breaking. Note the split personality: MACD is still bullish on AMD, KLAC, AMAT, TXN, ADI and MU because the damage is fresh. This group is the index's swing factor - if it stabilises the NAS100 holds 29,365; if it doesn't, 29,108 is on the table.

SOFTWARE AND CLOUD
ADBE +3.58% . INTU +4.41% . PANW -0.43% . SNPS -2.13% . CDNS -2.15% . CRWD -0.46% . FTNT +1.39% . WDAY -0.29%
The relative strength pocket. PANW, CRWD and WDAY all hold bullish stacks with bullish MACD and sit above POC. INTU jumped +4.41% and ADBE +3.58%, both closing above the 20 and 50 EMA. The EDA pair is the exception and it is ugly: CDNS is below all three EMAs with the weakest RSI in the index at 32.9, and SNPS is also below all three. Security and HR software are working, chip-design software is not - which is the semiconductor story showing up one layer down the stack.

CONSUMER AND INTERNET
COST +0.82% . NFLX +2.30% . BKNG +1.70% . MELI -0.47% . MAR +0.21% . ABNB +2.21% . DASH +1.71% . PYPL -0.07% . ORLY +0.59%
Broadly constructive and the day's quiet outperformer. ABNB +2.21% with RSI 70.6 and only 2.1% off its 52-week high, DASH +1.71% on 1.30x relative volume, BKNG +1.70%, NFLX +2.30%, COST +0.82%. Seven of nine sit above their POC. The laggards are MELI, below all three EMAs and 30.2% off its high, and MAR, below the 20 and 50. PYPL is worth flagging: bullish stack and RSI 69.1, but MACD has turned bearish - momentum is topping even though price is not.

HEALTHCARE AND BIOTECH
ISRG +0.22% . REGN +0.53%
Two names, two very different pictures. REGN is the strongest chart in the entire index - bullish stack, RSI 78.5, MACD bullish, closing 1.3% from its 52-week high on a red tape. That is exactly the defensive rotation the bond move is forcing. ISRG is mixed: above the 20 EMA but below the 50 and 200, 35.2% off its high, though MACD has turned bullish and it closed green. Small sector, but its behaviour is the clearest tell that money is playing defence.

INDUSTRIAL AND OTHER
LIN +0.92% . CEG -4.09% . CSCO -1.14% . TMUS +1.46%
The weak corner. LIN is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.7 and MACD bearish, which is a poor sign given industrial gas is supposed to be defensive. CEG is below all three EMAs and 35.3% off its high after -4.09% - the power/AI-datacentre trade is unwinding hard alongside the chips. CSCO is below the 20 and 50 with bearish MACD. TMUS is the only healthy one, above the 20 and 50 with bullish MACD and above POC, doing its job as a rate-insensitive, cash-generative defensive.


TOP SWING SETUPS

1. PANW - LONG (pullback into support)
Bullish EMA stack with the 20 at 361.77 and the 50 at 329.46, RSI 59.8, MACD bullish at 16.12 over 15.26, price 60 points clear of its 60-day POC at 314.31, and only 6.2% below its 52-week high of 398.88. It closed -0.43% on a day the index lost 1.68% - that is relative strength, and it is the cleanest long in the software complex.
Entry: 369.00 . Stop: 358.50 . T1: 380.00 . T2: 388.83 . R:R: 1.89
Confluence: Classic S1 368.75 and Camarilla S4 368.62 land on the entry. Stop sits under classic S3 at 358.71 and beneath the 20 EMA. T2 is classic R3. Risk 10.50 is 0.72 ATR - tight but respects structure.

2. DASH - LONG (trend continuation)
Bullish EMA stack across 204.76 / 191.84 / 189.26, RSI 65.4, MACD bullish and widening at 8.67 over 8.07, and the highest conviction volume of any long candidate at 1.30x relative. It gained +1.71% while the index fell, and it trades 34 points above its POC of 182.03.
Entry: 212.00 . Stop: 202.00 . T1: 222.81 . T2: 232.04 . R:R: 2.00
Confluence: Entry sits between classic S1 211.74 and Camarilla S4 210.77. Stop is below the 20 EMA at 204.76. T1 is today's high, T2 is classic R3. The 24.2% distance from its 52-week high leaves plenty of overhead room.

3. WDAY - LONG (strongest MACD expansion)
Bullish stack with a wide gap between price and the 50 EMA at 155.64, RSI 63.6, and the most decisively expanding MACD in the software group at 14.06 over 12.24. Price is 44 points above its POC of 146.55, and today's range was unusually tight - 190.43 to 195.78 - which is coiling behaviour, not distribution.
Entry: 189.00 . Stop: 180.50 . T1: 197.63 . T2: 207.00 . R:R: 2.12
Confluence: Entry at classic S1 188.79 and Camarilla S4 187.70. T1 is classic R2. Low relative volume at 0.70 is the one caveat - wait for volume to confirm on the bounce.

4. META - SHORT (breakdown continuation)
The weakest large-cap in the index. Below all three EMAs - 587.84, 598.13 and 624.21 - RSI 36.2, MACD bearish at -9.81 under -6.63, trading 55 points below its POC of 598.99, and 31.2% off its 52-week high. Crucially it closed at 543.82, just 0.61 above the session low of 543.21, on 1.53x relative volume - the highest conviction selling in the entire NAS100. The 52-week low at 520.26 is only 4.3% away.
Entry: 549.23 . Stop: 561.00 . T1: 537.80 . T2: 520.35 . R:R: 2.45
Confluence: Entry is the classic pivot, a natural retest level. Stop is above today's high of 560.66. T1 is classic S1, T2 is classic S3 sitting right on the 52-week low. Risk 11.77 is 0.53 ATR.

5. AVGO - SHORT (fresh MACD bearish cross)
Below the 20 EMA at 399.95 and the 50 at 395.85 with the 200 still beneath at 365.92, RSI 41.1, and a freshly completed bearish MACD cross - 2.64 has just dropped under the signal at 5.29. Price closed 20 points below its POC of 399.65 on 1.19x relative volume, and 23.3% off its 52-week high of 495.00. As the largest semiconductor weight in the index this one carries the sector.
Entry: 385.00 . Stop: 396.50 . T1: 372.10 . T2: 365.92 . R:R: 1.66
Confluence: Entry at today's high 385.78 and classic R1 384.74. Stop above the 50 EMA. T1 is classic S2, T2 is the 200 EMA - the obvious magnet and the level that decides whether this becomes a genuine sector breakdown.


INTRADAY SETUPS

1. NVDA - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Close 219.74 sits between Camarilla S3 218.93 and R3 220.55, which is the classic range-day signature - fade the extremes. Bullish EMA stack and price above POC 208.16 mean the long side is the higher-probability leg.
Direction: Long . Entry: 218.95 . Stop: 218.00 . Target: 220.55 . R:R: 1.68
Reasoning: Entry at Camarilla S3, stop just under Camarilla S4 at 218.12, target Camarilla R3. Extremely tight 2.95-point daily range means this is a small-size, high-precision trade. Abandon it if price opens outside the Camarilla band.

2. AMD - Camarilla range fade, SHORT
Close 484.39 sits inside the Camarilla band between S3 479.76 and R3 489.02. Bias is short because price is below its 20 EMA at 494.21 and 24 points below POC 508.78, with the sector under pressure.
Direction: Short . Entry: 489.02 . Stop: 493.90 . Target: 479.76 . R:R: 1.90
Reasoning: Sell Camarilla R3, stop above Camarilla R4 at 493.65 which also sits under the 20 EMA - a clean invalidation. Target Camarilla S3. Wide ATR of 30.96 means size down accordingly.

3. META - Camarilla fade with trend, SHORT
The highest-conviction intraday trade of the five because the daily trend, the volume and the Camarilla structure all point the same way.
Direction: Short . Entry: 548.62 . Stop: 553.70 . Target: 539.02 . R:R: 1.89
Reasoning: Sell Camarilla R3, stop above Camarilla R4 at 553.42. First target Camarilla S3 at 539.02, and because the daily trend is down, runners can be held for Camarilla S4 at 534.22 which gives 2.83R. Only take the short - do not fade the S3 level for a long in a stock below all three EMAs.

4. MSFT - classic pivot bounce, LONG
Close 481.63 is sitting 0.61 above the classic pivot of 481.02, with a bullish EMA stack and price 67 points above POC 414.10. Textbook pivot-support long.
Direction: Long . Entry: 481.00 . Stop: 477.00 . Target: 488.14 . R:R: 1.79
Reasoning: Entry at the pivot, stop below classic S1 at 477.76 and today's low of 477.15, target classic R2. Note MACD has just turned marginally bearish at 24.58 versus 25.19, so treat this as a bounce trade rather than a trend trade and take T1 at R1 484.88.

5. MU - Camarilla range fade, LONG
Close 941.10 sits between Camarilla S3 926.79 and R3 955.41 after a -6.98% flush. Bullish EMA stack survives - 917.13, 900.39, 629.28 - and MACD has just crossed bullish at 5.58 over -10.30, making this a mean-reversion candidate rather than a breakdown.
Direction: Long . Entry: 926.79 . Stop: 911.50 . Target: 955.41 . R:R: 1.87
Reasoning: Entry at Camarilla S3, stop below Camarilla S4 at 912.48, target Camarilla R3. The caveat is real: price closed 25 points below its POC of 966.58 and the sector is in freefall, so this is counter-sector. ATR of 73.09 demands very small size. Skip it if semis gap down.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5

NVDA
Close: 219.74 (-2.34%) . Prev H/L: 221.64 / 218.69 . ATR14: 6.63 . Rel Vol: 0.84
Camarilla: S4 218.12 . S3 218.93 . S1 219.47 || R1 220.01 . R3 220.55 . R4 221.36
Classic: S3 215.46 . S2 217.07 . S1 218.41 . P 220.02 . R1 221.36 . R2 222.97 . R3 224.31
EMAs: 20 215.16 . 50 209.80 . 200 194.72 . POC: 208.16 . 52w: 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT
Close: 481.63 (+0.27%) . Prev H/L: 484.27 / 477.15 . ATR14: 13.54 . Rel Vol: 0.63
Camarilla: S4 477.71 . S3 479.67 . S1 480.98 || R1 482.28 . R3 483.59 . R4 485.55
Classic: S3 470.64 . S2 473.90 . S1 477.76 . P 481.02 . R1 484.88 . R2 488.14 . R3 492.00
EMAs: 20 465.47 . 50 435.13 . 200 430.39 . POC: 414.10 . 52w: 553.72 / 349.20

META
Close: 543.82 (-4.42%) . Prev H/L: 560.66 / 543.21 . ATR14: 22.17 . Rel Vol: 1.53
Camarilla: S4 534.22 . S3 539.02 . S1 542.22 || R1 545.42 . R3 548.62 . R4 553.42
Classic: S3 520.35 . S2 531.78 . S1 537.80 . P 549.23 . R1 555.25 . R2 566.68 . R3 572.70
EMAs: 20 587.84 . 50 598.13 . 200 624.21 . POC: 598.99 . 52w: 790.80 / 520.26

MU
Close: 941.10 (-6.98%) . Prev H/L: 978.67 / 926.64 . ATR14: 73.09 . Rel Vol: 0.85
Camarilla: S4 912.48 . S3 926.79 . S1 936.33 || R1 945.87 . R3 955.41 . R4 969.72
Classic: S3 866.91 . S2 896.77 . S1 918.94 . P 948.80 . R1 970.97 . R2 1000.83 . R3 1023.00
EMAs: 20 917.13 . 50 900.39 . 200 629.28 . POC: 966.58 . 52w: 1255.00 / 113.46

AMD
Close: 484.39 (-4.27%) . Prev H/L: 491.81 / 474.98 . ATR14: 30.96 . Rel Vol: 0.82
Camarilla: S4 475.13 . S3 479.76 . S1 482.85 || R1 485.93 . R3 489.02 . R4 493.65
Classic: S3 458.81 . S2 466.90 . S1 475.64 . P 483.73 . R1 492.47 . R2 500.56 . R3 509.30
EMAs: 20 494.21 . 50 487.53 . 200 360.86 . POC: 508.78 . 52w: 584.73 / 149.22


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Index distribution. Volume rose to 1.268bn on a 1.68% decline against 1.156bn on Monday. Higher volume on a down day is institutional selling, not retail. This is the single most important warning in tonight's report.

2. Semiconductor leadership has broken. The group averaged -4.47%. Seven of ten are now below both the 20 and 50 EMA and eight of ten are below their 60-day POC. When the index's highest-beta leadership group loses its structure, the index usually follows within a week or two unless something else takes the baton.

3. META is in free fall. Below all three EMAs, RSI 36.2, MACD bearish, closed 0.61 above the session low on the index's heaviest relative volume at 1.53x. The 52-week low of 520.26 is 4.3% away and there is no meaningful support between here and there.

4. CDNS at RSI 32.9. The weakest momentum reading in the index, below all three EMAs, 24.0% off its high and 48 points beneath its POC of 365.03. SNPS is in the same condition. Chip-design software confirming the semiconductor weakness is a bad combination.

5. Eight names below all three EMAs. CDNS, CEG, LIN, MELI, META, QCOM, SNPS and TSLA. That is 20% of the index in full technical downtrends, up from where this measure sat a week ago.

6. CEG and the power trade. Down 4.09% to sit 35.3% below its 52-week high, below all three EMAs. The AI-datacentre-power theme is unwinding in lockstep with the chips, which suggests this is a single positioning trade coming off rather than two separate stories.

7. Defensive failure at LIN. Industrial gas is meant to be a safe harbour, yet LIN is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.7 and bearish MACD. When the defensives are also broken, the rotation has fewer places to hide.

8. Overbought names on thin volume. REGN at RSI 78.5 made its push on only 0.72x relative volume, and ABNB at 70.6 on 0.83x. Low-volume advances into overbought territory are prone to sharp mean reversion. PYPL is the clearest early warning - RSI 69.1 with MACD already turned bearish, a momentum top forming while price still looks fine.

9. Index momentum decelerating. RSI at 52.20 has crossed below its own MA at 54.45, and the MACD histogram has compressed to +111.93 and is shrinking. Neither has confirmed a bearish signal yet, but both are pointed the wrong way.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Wednesday 19 August
FOMC Minutes (19:00 UK) - minutes from the 28-29 July meeting. That decision carried a 9-3 vote with the first three-way same-direction dissent since September 2016, so the minutes are unusually consequential. With the 30-year at a 19-year high, any hawkish language on the inflation path is the obvious risk to a market already selling duration.
Weekly EIA crude inventories (15:30 UK) - oil is part of tonight's story via the stalled US-Iran situation, so a draw would keep upward pressure on yields and on the NAS100.

Thursday 20 August
Weekly jobless claims (13:30 UK)
Existing home sales - a direct read on how the long end is transmitting into the real economy.

Looking further out
NVDA fiscal Q2 earnings - Wednesday 26 August, after the close. This is the event that matters for this index. With the semiconductor group down 4.47% today and seven of ten below their key EMAs, NVDA's print lands with the sector already damaged. Expect chip names to trade with compressed ranges and elevated implied volatility into it.
Q2 GDP second estimate - 26 August.

Component earnings watch
Late August is the traditional reporting window for several NAS100 names on fiscal calendars offset from the calendar year - INTU, WDAY, CRWD, ADSK-adjacent software and MRVL among them. INTU's +4.41% and ADBE's +3.58% today, both against a heavily red tape, suggest positioning is already moving ahead of those dates. Confirm exact dates with your broker before sizing any of the software longs above - an earnings date inside your holding period changes the risk profile of every setup in this report.


SUMMARY
The NAS100 remains structurally bullish - above all three EMAs, positive MACD, and 9.1% clear of the 200 EMA. But tonight's session was a genuine warning: leadership broke, volume expanded on the decline, and the driver is macro rather than fundamental, which means it will not resolve on earnings news.

The level that decides it is 29,365.56, the 20 EMA, backed by classic S1 at 29,384.93. Hold that and this is a routine pullback in an uptrend - lean long on the software and consumer names, which is where the relative strength genuinely is. Lose it on a closing basis and 29,278 then 29,132 come quickly, and the semiconductor shorts become the trade.

Trade the setups, respect the stops, and remember that with an ATR of 501 points the index can move 1.7% in a day without meaning anything at all.

Report: 18 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - FRIDAY 14 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 14 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 30,052.8 | Change: -57.3 (-0.19%) | Range: 29,933 - 30,180



MARKET OVERVIEW
NAS100 closed at 30,052.8, down 57.3 points (-0.19%) on the day, in a tight 247-point range (29,933 - 30,180) that was only about 65% of the last five sessions' average range of roughly 379 points. Volume of 427,973 was the lightest of the week and around 87% of the five-day average - a genuine consolidation session rather than distribution.

Context matters here. Thursday delivered a record close for the S&P 500 on cooler-than-expected inflation data and receding Fed rate-hike fears, and Thursday's NAS100 candle closed at 30,110.1 after tagging 30,167.6. Today the index simply refused to give any of it back: it printed a marginally higher high at 30,180 before drifting into the close. On the week the index added roughly +336 points (+1.13%) from last Friday's 29,716.3 - a third consecutive weekly gain.

The drag came from the macro side. July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, and the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment reading dropped to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, with respondents flagging inflation and business conditions. The VIX finished around 14.25, essentially unchanged, confirming a low-volatility regime rather than any risk-off impulse.

Under the bonnet the tape was split. AMD +6.50% led a memory and semiconductor bid alongside MU +2.30%, TXN +2.25% and ADI +2.16%, while post-earnings supply hammered AVGO -5.93% and AMAT -5.12% - both on the heaviest relative volume in the index (1.63x and 1.68x). Software gave back ground broadly, the worst-performing group on the day.

Bias: Bullish above 29,930. Structure, EMA stack and MACD all point higher; the only caution is how extended momentum has become versus the moving averages.



TREND ANALYSIS
EMA stack (daily): Close 30,052.8 | EMA20 29,293.8 | EMA50 29,090.1 | EMA200 27,069.9

This is a textbook bullish alignment - price above EMA20, EMA20 above EMA50, EMA50 comfortably above EMA200. There is no ambiguity in the classification: Bull (above all).

Extension: price sits +2.6% above the EMA20, +3.3% above the EMA50 and +11.0% above the EMA200. That is a stretched but not historically extreme reading. The EMA20 at 29,293.8 is roughly 760 points below spot, so a normal mean-reversion pullback would still leave the uptrend fully intact.

Structure: higher highs and higher lows since the 29,342.7 swing low on 7 August. The sequence runs 29,342.7 low, then 29,424.4, then 29,518.6, then 29,676.1, then 29,933 today - five consecutive higher lows. Thursday's 30,167.6 high and today's 30,180 form a shallow double-top shelf that is the immediate line in the sand.

Phase: Stage 2 advance (Weinstein), late-stage. The index is in the upper portion of its trend channel with momentum decelerating rather than reversing.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 59.58, with its own 14-period MA at 51.26. RSI is above its signal line and above 50 - constructive. Critically it is not overbought, which means there is headroom for another leg up before the classic exhaustion warning fires. There is no bearish divergence on the daily: today's marginally higher high at 30,180 was accompanied by an RSI that remains in the upper half of its range.

MACD: MACD line 220.23, signal line 37.92, histogram +182.31. That is a very wide positive separation and confirms the trend is being driven by real momentum, not drift. The flip side: a histogram this wide is itself a stretched condition, and mean reversion in MACD normally arrives via sideways chop rather than a crash.

Volume: 427,973 today against a five-day average near 489,900. Declining volume on a down day inside an uptrend is benign - it says sellers were not committed. The concern would be a heavy-volume close back below 29,930.

Breadth (40 NAS100 constituents scanned): 25 in bullish EMA structures, 11 bearish, 4 mixed. MACD is bullish on 31 of 40 names. 23 of 40 trade above their 60-day VWAP point of control. Breadth is healthy and is not the warning sign here.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 30,178 - classic pivot R1, and effectively today's high at 30,180. Two sessions have now failed within 13 points of this. Clearing it on volume is the bull trigger.
R2 30,302 - classic pivot R2 and the first genuinely unexplored territory.
R3 30,425 - classic pivot R3, plus the 30,500 round number just above as a magnet.

Support
S1 29,930 - classic pivot S1, sitting on today's low of 29,933. The pivotal near-term level; losing it opens the gap back toward Thursday's open.
S2 29,808 - classic pivot S2, reinforced by Wednesday's 29,702.2 close just below.
S3 29,684 - classic pivot S3, coinciding with the 29,676.1 low from Thursday.

Classic pivots for the next session: S2 29,808 · S1 29,930 · P 30,055 · R1 30,178 · R2 30,302
Round numbers: 30,000 (now immediate support, price closed just 53 points above it) · 30,500 · 29,500
Moving averages: EMA20 29,294 · EMA50 29,090 · EMA200 27,070



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses strict EMA classification: close measured against EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 individually. Every one of the 40 classifications below was verified programmatically against the raw close and EMA values with zero mismatches.

AAPL 305.93 (+0.22%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 43.7 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -11.2% off 52w high | Below POC
MSFT 495.40 (-0.30%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 70.9 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -10.5% off 52w high | Above POC
NVDA 225.16 (-0.06%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 63.0 Strong | MACD Bullish | -4.8% off 52w high | Above POC
AMZN 262.65 (-0.94%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -8.5% off 52w high | Above POC
META 589.85 (-0.86%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.6 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -25.9% off 52w high | Below POC
GOOGL 345.90 (-0.13%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 47.0 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -15.3% off 52w high | Below POC
AVGO 393.06 (-5.93%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 46.5 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -20.6% off 52w high | Below POC
TSLA 342.27 (+0.68%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 48.8 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -31.4% off 52w high | Below POC
COST 961.06 (-0.08%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 55.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.4% off 52w high | Above POC
NFLX 78.16 (-0.10%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 61.8 Strong | MACD Bullish | -38.3% off 52w high | Above POC
AMD 514.39 (+6.50%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.7 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.0% off 52w high | Above POC
ADBE 264.02 (-2.39%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 59.2 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -28.8% off 52w high | Above POC
QCOM 165.79 (+0.61%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 47.1 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -36.2% off 52w high | Below POC
TMUS 182.61 (-0.42%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 52.3 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -30.2% off 52w high | Above POC
LIN 482.74 (+0.95%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 38.1 Weak | MACD Bearish | -11.9% off 52w high | Below POC
ISRG 394.51 (-1.68%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 55.9 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -34.7% off 52w high | Above POC
INTU 345.66 (-3.53%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 63.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -52.1% off 52w high | Above POC
CSCO 111.68 (-1.58%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 41.7 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -14.3% off 52w high | Below POC
TXN 279.58 (+2.25%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 47.3 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -16.3% off 52w high | Below POC
AMAT 507.18 (-5.12%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 44.9 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -31.4% off 52w high | Below POC
BKNG 212.06 (-0.60%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 68.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -8.5% off 52w high | Above POC
PANW 384.27 (-2.96%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 65.5 Strong | MACD Bullish | -3.7% off 52w high | Above POC
MU 971.66 (+2.30%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 56.3 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -22.6% off 52w high | Above POC
LRCX 332.36 (-1.38%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.6 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -24.2% off 52w high | Below POC
KLAC 203.72 (-2.70%) | Mixed (>20 <50 >200) | RSI 49.1 Neutral | MACD Bullish | -33.7% off 52w high | Below POC
ADI 389.39 (+2.16%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 54.1 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -12.7% off 52w high | Below POC
REGN 803.48 (-0.31%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 77.3 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -2.1% off 52w high | Above POC
SNPS 421.50 (+2.37%) | Mixed (>20 <50 <200) | RSI 56.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -32.7% off 52w high | Below POC
CDNS 324.82 (+0.32%) | Bear (below all) | RSI 37.3 Weak | MACD Bearish | -22.0% off 52w high | Below POC
MELI 1844.58 (+0.89%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 51.6 Bullish | MACD Bearish | -27.6% off 52w high | Above POC
CRWD 216.95 (-3.80%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 61.3 Strong | MACD Bullish | -4.6% off 52w high | Above POC
MAR 356.72 (+1.19%) | Bear (below 20/50) | RSI 45.0 Neutral | MACD Bearish | -13.2% off 52w high | Below POC
ABNB 184.06 (-0.58%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 75.0 Overbought | MACD Bullish | -1.6% off 52w high | Above POC
MRVL 222.02 (-0.07%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 53.7 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -32.7% off 52w high | Below POC
DASH 217.02 (+0.35%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 68.4 Strong | MACD Bullish | -24.0% off 52w high | Above POC
FTNT 160.01 (-3.28%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 51.9 Bullish | MACD Bearish | -7.0% off 52w high | Above POC
CEG 282.50 (+1.39%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 62.9 Strong | MACD Bullish | -31.5% off 52w high | Above POC
WDAY 198.68 (-3.76%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 69.2 Strong | MACD Bullish | -20.5% off 52w high | Above POC
PYPL 61.67 (+1.77%) | Bull (above all) | RSI 77.2 Overbought | MACD Bearish | -22.2% off 52w high | Above POC
ORLY 91.05 (-1.65%) | Bull (above 20/50) | RSI 52.5 Bullish | MACD Bullish | -16.3% off 52w high | Above POC



SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech - 8 names, avg -0.19%, avg RSI 54.5
AAPL +0.22% | MSFT -0.30% | NVDA -0.06% | AMZN -0.94% | META -0.86% | GOOGL -0.13% | TSLA +0.68% | NFLX -0.10%
Split down the middle: 4 bullish, 3 bearish, 1 mixed. MSFT (RSI 70.9), NVDA (RSI 63.0) and AMZN hold full bullish EMA stacks. META is the standout weak link - below all three EMAs with a fully inverted stack (EMA20 594.95 under EMA50 601.62 under EMA200 625.58) and 25.9% off its 52-week high. AAPL and GOOGL have both lost their EMA20 and EMA50 while holding above the 200. The group is not leading.

Semiconductors - 10 names, avg -0.14%, avg RSI 50.7
AVGO -5.93% | AMD +6.50% | QCOM +0.61% | TXN +2.25% | AMAT -5.12% | MU +2.30% | LRCX -1.38% | KLAC -2.70% | ADI +2.16% | MRVL -0.07%
The most violent internal dispersion in the index: a 12.4-point spread between the best and worst name. Memory and analog were bid (AMD, MU, TXN, ADI) while equipment and the AVGO complex were dumped (AVGO, AMAT, KLAC). AVGO lost both its EMA20 and EMA50 in a single session on 1.63x relative volume; AMAT did the same on 1.68x and now sits 8.7% below its POC at 557.13. Five names bullish, four bearish, one mixed - this group is currently a stock-picker's tape, not a trend.

Software and Cloud - 9 names, avg -2.07%, avg RSI 56.3
ADBE -2.39% | INTU -3.53% | CSCO -1.58% | PANW -2.96% | SNPS +2.37% | CDNS +0.32% | CRWD -3.80% | FTNT -3.28% | WDAY -3.76%
The weakest sector on the day by a clear margin. Seven of nine fell, and the declines clustered in exactly the names that had run hardest - CRWD -3.80%, WDAY -3.76% (on 1.54x volume), INTU -3.53%, FTNT -3.28%. Importantly this reads as profit-taking, not breakdown: 6 of 9 remain in bullish EMA structures and the average RSI of 56.3 is still constructive. The exception is CDNS, which is below all three EMAs with RSI 37.3 and a bearish MACD - the sector's genuine laggard.

Consumer and Internet - 9 names, avg +0.10%, avg RSI 60.7
COST -0.08% | BKNG -0.60% | MELI +0.89% | MAR +1.19% | ABNB -0.58% | DASH +0.35% | PYPL +1.77% | ORLY -1.65% | TMUS -0.42%
The strongest group by structure: 7 of 9 bullish, average RSI 60.7 - the highest of any sector with meaningful size. Travel and payments lead, with ABNB (RSI 75.0, 1.6% off its 52-week high), BKNG (RSI 68.9), DASH (RSI 68.4) and PYPL (RSI 77.2). Notably, this strength persists despite today's soft retail sales and consumer sentiment prints - a divergence worth watching next week into Walmart and Target.

Healthcare and Biotech - 2 names, avg -0.99%, avg RSI 66.6
ISRG -1.68% | REGN -0.31%
Both bullish. REGN is the momentum standout of the entire index: RSI 77.3, MACD 38.67 against a 33.44 signal, price 2.15% off its 52-week high and 22% above its POC. ISRG holds above its EMA20 and EMA50 but remains 34.7% below its 52-week high and below the EMA200 - a recovery, not a leadership move.

Industrial and Other - 2 names, avg +1.17%, avg RSI 50.5
LIN +0.95% | CEG +1.39%
LIN is the single weakest chart in the index: below all three EMAs, RSI 38.1, bearish MACD, and only 24% above its 52-week low. CEG is the mirror image - above its EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI 62.9, though still 31.6% below its 52-week high and beneath the EMA200.



TOP SWING SETUPS
1. ABNB - Long, 52-week high breakout
Entry: 187.30 · Stop: 180.60 · T1: 194.00 · T2: 200.70 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 184.06. Risk 6.70 per share, roughly 1.1x the 6.04 ATR. Trigger is a break of the 52-week high at 187.12.
Confluence: full bullish EMA stack (184.06 over EMA20 163.90 over EMA50 152.36 over EMA200 138.62), RSI 75.0, MACD 10.43 against a 7.06 signal, and price 23.5% above its POC at 148.99 - the market has decisively repriced this name higher and is holding the gain. Only 1.64% from a new 52-week high.
POC context: a long way above value, which is the signature of a trending breakout rather than a range trade. It also means there is no volume shelf beneath price until roughly 149 - the reason the stop must sit tight under 180.60 rather than trailing wide.
Caution: RSI 75 is already overbought. Size accordingly and do not chase without the break.

2. PANW - Long, pullback into an uptrend
Entry: 379.50 · Stop: 371.00 · T1: 394.10 · T2: 398.88 · R:R: 1:1.7 / 1:2.3
Close 384.27 after a -2.96% session from a 397.31 high. Risk 8.50, a little over half the 15.13 ATR.
Confluence: the entry zone stacks classic pivot S1 at 377.64 with Camarilla S3 at 379.74 - two independent support calculations landing within two points of each other. Structure remains fully bullish: 384.27 over EMA20 358.85 over EMA50 325.67 over EMA200 246.17. RSI 65.5 and MACD 17.98 versus a 14.52 signal. T2 is the 52-week high at 398.88, only 3.66% away.
POC context: price is 23.7% above the POC at 310.56. Value has migrated sharply higher over the last 60 sessions and dips have been bought.
Note: PANW reports on 1 September, so this setup has a clean two-week runway before event risk.

3. MU - Long, memory momentum breakout
Entry: 984.50 · Stop: 930.00 · T1: 1,039.00 · T2: 1,093.50 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 971.66, up 2.30%. Risk 54.50, only 0.75x the very wide 72.75 ATR - this is a high-volatility instrument and position size must reflect that.
Confluence: trigger is a break of today's 984.00 high, sitting just under classic R1 at 985.04. Full bullish stack (971.66 over EMA20 904.39 over EMA50 894.11 over EMA200 622.27). The MACD tells the real story: -4.79 against a -18.89 signal, a +14.10 histogram - momentum is inflecting hard from below the zero line, which is typically the earliest and highest-quality phase of a trend change. Stop at 930 sits below classic S3 at 929.44.
POC context: price is just 1.3% above the POC at 959.33 - price and value are in agreement here, which is exactly what you want beneath a breakout rather than an extended chase.
Sector tailwind: the memory complex was bid across the board today.

4. REGN - Long, momentum continuation
Entry: 807.00 · Stop: 786.80 · T1: 827.20 · T2: 847.40 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 803.48. Risk 20.20, almost exactly the 20.15 ATR. Trigger is a break of today's 806.54 high; T1 at 827.20 clears the 52-week high of 821.11.
Confluence: the strongest momentum profile in the index. RSI 77.3, MACD 38.67 over a 33.44 signal, full bullish stack (803.48 over EMA20 749.64 over EMA50 707.89 over EMA200 697.16), and only 2.15% from its 52-week high. Stop sits beneath classic pivot S2 at 786.89.
POC context: 22.3% above the POC at 656.75 - heavily extended from value.
Caution: RSI 77.3 plus that POC extension makes this the most stretched long on the list. Relative volume was only 0.48x today, so conviction behind the last leg was thin. Half size at most.

5. CDNS - Short, breakdown continuation
Entry: 319.40 · Stop: 327.90 · T1: 310.90 · T2: 302.40 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Close 324.82. Risk 8.50, roughly 0.68x the 12.53 ATR. Trigger is a break of today's 319.46 low, which also takes out classic pivot S1 at 320.56.
Confluence: one of only four names below all three EMAs, and the stack is inverted (EMA20 337.45 beneath EMA50 348.18). RSI 37.3 is the second-weakest in the index. MACD -9.23 against a -9.07 signal - bearish and still rolling over. Stop at 327.90 sits just above classic R1 at 327.97.
POC context: price is 11.2% below the POC at 365.78. Value sits well above spot, meaning every rally into the mid-330s meets trapped supply. This is the cleanest short structure available.
Balance: relative volume was only 1.04x and the name closed green today (+0.32%), so wait for the trigger rather than pre-empting it.



INTRADAY SETUPS
1. AMD - Pivot bounce long
Entry: 504.50 · Stop: 496.50 · T1: 514.70 · T2: 524.97 · R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:2.6
Direction: Long. AMD gapped and ran +6.50% to close at 514.39, right on its 514.67 high. Classic pivot P sits at 504.09 and Camarilla S4 at 497.08. After a move that size the first controlled pullback into the pivot is the highest-probability entry - it lets the buyer in without chasing the close. Stop below Camarilla S4; T2 is classic R1 at 524.97.
Reasoning: full bullish EMA stack, price 1.5% above the POC at 506.77, and the POC itself sits inside the entry zone - price, value and pivot all converge around 504-507. If that shelf fails the thesis is simply wrong and the 8.00 risk is contained.

2. NVDA - Camarilla range long
Entry: 224.35 · Stop: 223.50 · T1: 225.45 · T2: 225.98 · R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:1.9
Direction: Long. NVDA closed at 225.16 inside a very narrow Camarilla band (S3 224.34 to R3 225.98) after a 224.50-227.49 session. Textbook Camarilla range conditions: buy S3, sell R3, stop beyond S4 at 223.52.
Reasoning: the daily trend is bullish (above all three EMAs, RSI 63.0, MACD 5.28 over 3.23) so the long side of the range is the favoured side. Price is 8.0% above its POC at 208.45. Only 4.81% from the 52-week high at 236.54 - a close above Camarilla R4 at 226.80 flips this into a breakout play rather than a range trade.

3. WDAY - Camarilla S3 bounce long
Entry: 195.20 · Stop: 191.40 · T1: 200.60 · T2: 206.10 · R:R: 1:1.4 / 1:2.9
Direction: Long. WDAY sold off -3.76% today on 1.54x relative volume from a 208.00 high to close at 198.68. Camarilla S3 sits at 195.11 with S4 at 191.54; classic pivot P is 200.56 and R1 is 206.12.
Reasoning: despite the sharp down day the daily structure is intact and strong - above all three EMAs, RSI 69.2, MACD 14.39 over an 11.15 signal. Price is 38% above its POC at 143.96. This is a momentum name having a profit-taking day, and the S3 level is where that kind of flush typically finds a bid. Earnings on 21 August is the hard deadline - be flat before it.

4. AAPL - Camarilla range short
Entry: 306.80 · Stop: 307.70 · T1: 305.35 · T2: 304.20 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.9
Direction: Short. AAPL barely moved (+0.22%, a 304.30-307.49 range) and closed at 305.93. Camarilla R3 is 306.81 with R4 at 307.68; S2 is 305.35 and S4 is 304.18.
Reasoning: the daily bias favours the short side. AAPL has lost its EMA20 (312.86) and EMA50 (309.09) while holding above the EMA200 (281.77), RSI is 43.7, and MACD is bearish at -2.46 against a +0.19 signal. Price is also below its POC at 306.73 - and note the POC sits almost exactly on Camarilla R3, so the fade level is confirmed by two independent methods. Risk is only 0.90 per share; relative volume of 0.53x means these Camarilla levels are likely to hold.

5. AMAT - Camarilla breakdown short
Entry: 499.90 · Stop: 505.00 · T1: 492.90 · T2: 483.19 · R:R: 1:1.4 / 1:3.3
Direction: Short. AMAT fell -5.12% on 1.68x relative volume - the heaviest in the index - closing at 507.18 near the lower end of a 497.10-523.00 range. Trigger is a break below Camarilla S3 at 500.06, targeting S4 at 492.94 then classic S2 at 483.19.
Reasoning: price has lost both the EMA20 (532.02) and EMA50 (528.71) and is 8.96% below its POC at 557.13 - value sits far above spot, so rallies meet supply. RSI 44.9 with no oversold cushion yet. Stop at 505.00 keeps risk to 5.10 against a 35.72 ATR, so this is a fraction of a normal position's volatility budget.
Caveat: a 5% single-session drop can mean-revert violently. Only take the trade on a confirmed break of 500.06, not in anticipation.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5
Camarilla, classic pivots, EMAs, POC, previous session high/low and 52-week extremes for the five heaviest-weighted names.

AAPL - 305.93 (+0.22%)
Cam: S4 304.18 · S3 305.05 · S1 305.64 || R1 306.22 · R3 306.81 · R4 307.68
Classic: S3 301.13 · S2 302.72 · S1 304.32 · P 305.91 · R1 307.51 · R2 309.10 · R3 310.70
EMA20 312.86 · EMA50 309.09 · EMA200 281.77 · POC 306.73
Prev H/L 307.49 / 304.30 · 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78 · ATR 7.86 · RV 0.53

MSFT - 495.40 (-0.30%)
Cam: S4 492.05 · S3 493.73 · S1 494.84 || R1 495.96 · R3 497.07 · R4 498.75
Classic: S3 486.79 · S2 490.35 · S1 492.88 · P 496.44 · R1 498.97 · R2 502.53 · R3 505.06
EMA20 462.02 · EMA50 431.31 · EMA200 429.37 · POC 412.49
Prev H/L 500.01 / 493.92 · 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20 · ATR 13.80 · RV 0.42

NVDA - 225.16 (-0.06%)
Cam: S4 223.52 · S3 224.34 · S1 224.89 || R1 225.43 · R3 225.98 · R4 226.80
Classic: S3 220.95 · S2 222.73 · S1 223.94 · P 225.72 · R1 226.93 · R2 228.71 · R3 229.92
EMA20 213.59 · EMA50 208.76 · EMA200 194.16 · POC 208.45
Prev H/L 227.49 / 224.50 · 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07 · ATR 6.93 · RV 0.62

AMZN - 262.65 (-0.94%)
Cam: S4 260.79 · S3 261.72 · S1 262.34 || R1 262.96 · R3 263.58 · R4 264.51
Classic: S3 258.05 · S2 260.24 · S1 261.44 · P 263.63 · R1 264.83 · R2 267.02 · R3 268.22
EMA20 260.65 · EMA50 253.46 · EMA200 239.37 · POC 249.44
Prev H/L 265.81 / 262.42 · 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00 · ATR 8.18 · RV 0.56

AMD - 514.39 (+6.50%)
Cam: S4 497.08 · S3 505.74 · S1 511.51 || R1 517.27 · R3 523.04 · R4 531.70
Classic: S3 462.03 · S2 472.62 · S1 493.50 · P 504.09 · R1 524.97 · R2 535.56 · R3 556.44
EMA20 494.11 · EMA50 486.91 · EMA200 358.14 · POC 506.77
Prev H/L 514.67 / 483.20 · 52w H/L 584.73 / 149.22 · ATR 32.35 · RV 0.89



BEARISH WARNINGS
Inverted EMA structures
META is the most damaged mega-cap chart in the index. The stack is completely inverted - EMA20 594.95 below EMA50 601.62 below EMA200 625.58 - with price at 589.85 beneath all three. It sits 25.92% below its 52-week high and only 13% above its 52-week low, and it trades below its POC at 600.66. MACD is technically bullish (-5.39 over a -5.60 signal) but both lines are below zero, which is a decelerating downtrend, not a reversal.

CDNS and LIN are the only other names below all three EMAs with weak RSI - 37.3 and 38.1 respectively, the two lowest readings in the index. Both carry bearish MACD crosses and both sit roughly 24% above their 52-week lows with substantial overhead supply. QCOM completes the below-all-EMAs group at 36.21% off its 52-week high.

Bearish MACD crosses - 9 of 40
AAPL, GOOGL, CSCO, LIN, CDNS, MELI, MAR, FTNT and PYPL all closed with MACD beneath signal. Two deserve particular attention:

PYPL - RSI 77.2 (the second most overbought name in the index) combined with a MACD of 2.80 against a 2.92 signal. Momentum is rolling over while price is still making highs. That combination of an overbought oscillator and a negative histogram is the classic early warning for a momentum name, and PYPL closed +1.77% today on 1.23x volume. The structure is still bullish - do not short it - but chasing here is poor risk.

MELI - full bullish price structure above the EMA20 and EMA50, yet MACD has crossed bearish at 19.27 versus a 28.03 signal, an -8.76 histogram. Price is 27.62% below its 52-week high and below its EMA200 at 1,872.73. Momentum is leaving before price has.

Heavy-volume distribution days
AVGO -5.93% on 1.63x volume and AMAT -5.12% on 1.68x volume were the two heaviest relative-volume sessions in the index, and both were declines. AVGO lost its EMA20 (403.09) and EMA50 (396.67) in a single session and closed below its POC at 400.31. AMAT is now 8.96% below its POC. When the two highest-volume prints of the day are both distribution in the same sub-sector, treat semiconductor equipment exposure with caution regardless of what AMD and MU did.

Overbought and extended
Four names carry RSI at or above 70: REGN 77.3, PYPL 77.2, ABNB 75.0, MSFT 70.9. None shows a confirmed bearish price/RSI divergence yet, but all four are extended from their EMA20 and all four should be traded with reduced size and defined stops rather than added to.

Names closest to their 52-week lows
TMUS (+10% off the low), ORLY (+10%), META (+13%), COST (+14%), TSLA (+15%) and SNPS (+15%) have the least cushion beneath them. TSLA is 31.39% below its 52-week high and below both its EMA50 (361.28) and EMA200 (384.68) despite closing +0.68% today.



EVENTS CALENDAR
Today's data - already in the price
July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months. University of Michigan preliminary August consumer sentiment came in at 51.0, down from 55.2 in July, with respondents citing inflation and business conditions. VIX closed near 14.25, essentially unchanged.

Week of 17-21 August - economic
Wed 19 Aug: FOMC minutes, 14:00 ET / 19:00 UK. The first full read on Committee thinking since inflation data cooled - the single biggest scheduled macro risk of the week for a momentum-driven index.
Thu 20 Aug: Initial jobless claims.
Fri 21 Aug: S&P Global flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

Week of 17-21 August - earnings relevant to the 40
Wed 19 Aug (before open): ADI - confirmed. ADI closed +2.16% today in a full bullish EMA stack with RSI 54.1. A read-through for the whole analog complex including TXN.
Thu 21 Aug (after close): WDAY - Q2. WDAY is the intraday setup above; be flat into the print. RSI 69.2, and the stock fell -3.76% today on elevated volume ahead of it.

Also reporting and relevant to sentiment rather than the index itself: Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart, Deere and Ross Stores on Thursday. Given today's soft retail sales and a 51.0 sentiment print, these results are the market's next real test of the consumer - and the Consumer and Internet group was the strongest sector in this index today, so any disappointment lands directly on the current leadership.

Beyond next week - the big ones
Tue 25 Aug: INTU Q4 FY26.
Wed 26 Aug: NVDA Q2 - the most consequential single print for this index. NVDA closed at 225.16, 4.81% off its 52-week high, in a full bullish stack.
Wed 26 Aug (after close): SNPS Q3 FY26 - confirmed by the company.
Thu 27 - Sat 29 Aug: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Grand Teton. Fed Chair Warsh's first as chair, which raises the event risk materially above a typical Jackson Hole.
Tue 1 Sep: PANW Q4 - confirmed, after close.



SUMMARY
The NAS100 spent Friday doing nothing, and doing it constructively. A 247-point range on the lightest volume of the week, 57 points lower, immediately beneath a two-day resistance shelf at 30,167-30,180, with the full EMA stack aligned bullish and RSI at 59.6 with room above. That is consolidation, not topping.

The bull case: 25 of 40 constituents in bullish EMA structures, MACD bullish on 31 of 40, 23 of 40 above their POC, a third consecutive weekly gain of +1.13%, and a VIX at 14.25 signalling no stress. A clean break above 30,180 opens 30,302 then 30,425.

The bear case: the MACD histogram at +182 is stretched, price is 2.6% above its EMA20, and today's macro was genuinely soft - a nine-month first decline in retail sales and consumer sentiment at 51.0. Software, the largest single group by count, was down 2.07% on average. A close below 29,930 on rising volume would be the first real crack.

How to trade it: the index is a buy-the-dip tape until 29,930 breaks, but the individual opportunities are cleaner than the index. Long the structural leaders on pullbacks (PANW, MU) or confirmed breakouts (ABNB), short the genuinely broken charts (CDNS) and the heavy-volume distribution (AMAT). Avoid adding to what is already overbought.

Report: 14 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.