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NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups
1 month 1 day ago #18871
by remo
Replied by remo on topic NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups
NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis - Friday 25 September 2026
Data: Close Fri 25 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 30,608.13 | Change: +129.28 (+0.42%) | Range: 30,413.58-30,667.56
Scanner data: 25 Sep 2026 close (all 40 components). Week: +963.96 (+3.25%) vs 18 Sep close 29,644.17.
Market Overview
The NAS100 closed 30,608.13, +129.28 pts (+0.42%), inside a 254-pt range (30,413.58-30,667.56) and just 162 pts below Tuesday's 52-week high of 30,770.63. That seals a +3.25% week - Monday's 838-pt gap-and-go (+2.83%) did the heavy lifting, and Wed-Fri has been a tight 30,204-30,707 consolidation.
Drivers: Stocks shrugged off a global bond sell-off that took the US 10-year yield to ~5.2% (highest since the financial crisis). WTI crude fell ~2.8% to ~$92 on reports of US-Iran talks over a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation fears. Costco beat on revenue ($95.72bn vs $94.88bn est.) and EPS ($6.75 vs $6.53) and closed +2.93% on 2x relative volume. Meta gave back 3.33% after a ~16% week and ~32% month on its Muse AI agent. Final UMich sentiment 48.1 with 1-yr inflation expectations at 4.6%. The Trump-Xi summit ended with trade relations held at status quo.
Volatility: VIX ~15.1 intraday Friday (-3.5%) - complacent, not fearful.
Volume: NDX volume 1.06bn vs 20-day avg 1.28bn (0.83x) - the up day came on light participation.
Bias: Bullish above 30,204 (Thursday's low / S3). Consolidation under the 30,770 high into a heavy data week (PCE, Micron, NFP). A daily close above 30,771 opens 31,000; a close below 30,204 targets the unfilled gap 29,648-29,933.
Trend
EMA stack: Price 30,608 > EMA20 29,800.1 > EMA50 29,463.7 > EMA200 27,742.4 - full bullish alignment, all three EMAs rising.
Distance: +2.7% above EMA20, +3.9% above EMA50, +10.3% above EMA200 - extended but not stretched.
Structure: Base low 28,753 (16 Sep) -> breakout Monday -> new 52w high 30,770.63 (22 Sep) -> shallow pullback low 30,204 (24 Sep). Unfilled breakaway gap 29,648-29,933 below.
Phase: Markup / post-breakout consolidation (bull flag type pause).
Indicators
RSI(14): 64.7 - bullish zone. Peaked 68.0 at the 22 Sep high; price and RSI both slightly lower since, so no bearish divergence yet - but a new price high on RSI below 68 would create one.
MACD(12,26,9): 310.7 vs signal 164.9 - bullish, crossed up 18 Sep. Histogram flattening (147.2 -> 146.7 -> 145.
: momentum is plateauing, not reversing.
ATR(14): 389 pts - use for stop sizing on the index.
Volume: Lower every session since the 2.52bn 18 Sep spike (quad-witching) - healthy for a pause, weak for a breakout.
Key Index Levels
Resistance: R1 30,667.6 (Fri high / Cam R3 30,678.0) · R2 30,770.6 (52w high) · R3 31,000 (round number / classic R3 30,966.6)
Support: S1 30,413.6 (Fri low) · S2 30,204.2 (24 Sep low / classic S3 30,204.7) · S3 29,800-29,933 (EMA20 + top of gap)
Classic pivots (Mon): S2 30,309.1 · S1 30,458.6 · P 30,563.1 · R1 30,712.6 · R2 30,817.1
Camarilla (Mon): S4 30,468.4 · S3 30,538.3 || R3 30,678.0 · R4 30,747.8
Round numbers: 30,500 · 30,000 · 31,000
Component Signals (all 40)
Format: Close (day %) · Trend (strict EMA) · RSI · MACD · vs 52w high · vs POC (60d VWAP) · rel vol
Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 341.07 (+1.53%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 65.7 Bullish · MACD Bull · -1.2% from 52wH · above POC (+6.5%) · rv 0.69
MSFT 516.17 (+3.66%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.2 Bullish · MACD Bear · -6.8% from 52wH · above POC (+13.3%) · rv 1.74
NVDA 225.07 (+0.22%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -4.8% from 52wH · above POC (+5.3%) · rv 0.75
AMZN 249.67 (+0.12%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 44.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.1% from 52wH · below POC (-2.2%) · rv 0.93
META 751.66 (-3.33%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 71.3 Overbought · MACD Bull · -3.6% from 52wH · above POC (+19.6%) · rv 1.11
GOOGL 343.92 (+0.46%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 49.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.8% from 52wH · below POC (-0.9%) · rv 0.79
AVGO 352.81 (+0.70%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 43.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.7% from 52wH · below POC (-5.8%) · rv 0.57
TSLA 372.11 (-1.54%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 55.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -25.4% from 52wH · above POC (+4.3%) · rv 1.12
Semiconductors
AMD 630.59 (+0.21%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 73 Overbought · MACD Bull · -1.3% from 52wH · above POC (+23.1%) · rv 0.8
QCOM 201.97 (+3.97%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 67.6 Bullish · MACD Bull · -22.3% from 52wH · above POC (+16.7%) · rv 1.21
TXN 278.07 (+2.74%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 60.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -16.8% from 52wH · above POC (+0.3%) · rv 0.64
AMAT 485.00 (+2.27%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -34.4% from 52wH · below POC (-5.2%) · rv 0.75
MU 1,082.28 (+0.16%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.2 Bullish · MACD Bull · -13.8% from 52wH · above POC (+16.4%) · rv 0.78
LRCX 315.21 (+2.62%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 56.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.1% from 52wH · above POC (+1.6%) · rv 0.76
KLAC 187.92 (+0.43%) · Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) · RSI 54.1 Neutral · MACD Bull · -38.9% from 52wH · below POC (-4.7%) · rv 0.74
ADI 393.60 (+2.87%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 62.3 Bullish · MACD Bull · -11.7% from 52wH · above POC (+5.0%) · rv 0.7
MRVL 261.94 (+1.15%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -20.6% from 52wH · above POC (+18.4%) · rv 0.58
Software/Cloud/Cyber
ADBE 235.47 (-1.45%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.6 Weak · MACD Bear · -35.3% from 52wH · below POC (-5.9%) · rv 0.55
INTU 275.79 (-0.48%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 29.6 Oversold · MACD Bear · -60.8% from 52wH · below POC (-12.8%) · rv 0.88
CSCO 106.70 (-0.25%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 41.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -18.2% from 52wH · below POC (-5.8%) · rv 0.86
PANW 374.74 (-3.89%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 54.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -6.1% from 52wH · above POC (+6.1%) · rv 0.68
SNPS 425.76 (+0.20%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 59.8 Neutral · MACD Bull · -21.1% from 52wH · above POC (+5.4%) · rv 1.13
CDNS 326.13 (+1.28%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 61.3 Bullish · MACD Bull · -21.7% from 52wH · above POC (+0.6%) · rv 1
CRWD 252.13 (-2.90%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 62.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -4.4% from 52wH · above POC (+18.4%) · rv 0.61
FTNT 173.46 (-2.92%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -4.4% from 52wH · above POC (+7.5%) · rv 0.55
WDAY 189.45 (-0.81%) · Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) · RSI 50.2 Neutral · MACD Bear · -24.2% from 52wH · above POC (+9.0%) · rv 0.36
Consumer/Internet
COST 922.77 (+2.93%) · Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) · RSI 52.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.8% from 52wH · below POC (-1.0%) · rv 1.99
NFLX 71.15 (-0.80%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.1 Weak · MACD Bear · -43.0% from 52wH · below POC (-4.3%) · rv 0.69
BKNG 163.95 (+4.15%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 33.7 Weak · MACD Bear · -27.1% from 52wH · below POC (-12.0%) · rv 0.96
MELI 1,752.61 (-0.09%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.1 Weak · MACD Bear · -31.2% from 52wH · below POC (-5.6%) · rv 0.9
MAR 352.03 (+0.15%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -14.3% from 52wH · below POC (-0.7%) · rv 0.78
ABNB 157.47 (+4.02%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 38.3 Weak · MACD Bear · -18.6% from 52wH · below POC (-5.7%) · rv 1.05
DASH 193.36 (+3.11%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 39.8 Weak · MACD Bear · -32.3% from 52wH · below POC (-5.0%) · rv 0.74
PYPL 55.04 (+4.64%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 52 Neutral · MACD Bull · -30.5% from 52wH · =POC · rv 1.38
ORLY 86.12 (-0.14%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 47.5 Neutral · MACD Bull · -20.8% from 52wH · below POC (-1.8%) · rv 0.62
TMUS 165.43 (+0.05%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.6 Weak · MACD Bear · -31.7% from 52wH · below POC (-7.4%) · rv 0.75
Healthcare/Biotech
ISRG 405.18 (+1.42%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 65.4 Bullish · MACD Bull · -32.9% from 52wH · above POC (+7.7%) · rv 1.02
REGN 788.04 (-1.00%) · Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) · RSI 48 Neutral · MACD Bear · -8.3% from 52wH · above POC (+4.5%) · rv 0.79
Industrial/Other
LIN 469.89 (+0.37%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 46.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -14.3% from 52wH · below POC (-4.3%) · rv 0.82
CEG 263.27 (+0.63%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 43.8 Neutral · MACD Bear · -36.2% from 52wH · below POC (-1.6%) · rv 0.6
Breadth: 21 bullish · 15 bearish · 4 mixed. Advancers 27 / decliners 13.
Sector Grouping
Mega-cap Tech (avg +0.23%, 5 bull / 3 bear / 0 mixed): Split. AAPL (-1.2% from 52wH), MSFT (1.74x vol) and META lead; NVDA holding above all EMAs. AMZN and GOOGL slipped back below EMA20/50 (holding EMA200); AVGO is below all three and 28.7% off its high. TSLA above 20/50 but still under EMA200.
Semiconductors (avg +1.82%, 8 bull / 0 bear / 1 mixed): Strongest group - 8 of 9 above all EMAs. AMD at a 52w high (RSI 73), MU into earnings, QCOM/TXN/ADI/LRCX/AMAT all green 2%+. Only KLAC mixed (below EMA50).
Software/Cloud/Cyber (avg -1.25%, 5 bull / 3 bear / 1 mixed): Two-speed. Cyber (PANW, CRWD, FTNT) in uptrends but sold -2.9% to -3.9% Friday; EDA (SNPS, CDNS) recovering above 20/50. ADBE and INTU in firm downtrends; CSCO below 20/50.
Consumer/Internet (avg +1.80%, 2 bull / 7 bear / 1 mixed): Weakest group - 6 of 10 below all EMAs (NFLX, BKNG, MELI, DASH, TMUS, ORLY) and ABNB below 20/50. Friday's +3-4% bounces in BKNG, ABNB and DASH came inside downtrends - relief so far, not trend change. PYPL (+4.64%) and MAR are the only names above all EMAs; COST reclaimed EMA20 only.
Healthcare/Biotech (avg +0.21%, 1 bull / 0 bear / 1 mixed): ISRG above 20/50 with MACD bull and RSI 65.4 but still under EMA200 431.09. REGN mixed - lost EMA20, MACD bearish.
Industrial/Other (avg +0.50%, 0 bull / 2 bear / 0 mixed): LIN and CEG both below all EMAs; CEG -36.2% from high. No leadership here.
Top Swing Setups
ADI - Long (trend continuation)
Entry: 393.60 · Stop: 374.00 · T1: 423.00 · T2: 445.90 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:2.7
Bull above all; MACD bull (hist +3.59); RSI 62.3. Stop sits under the EMA20 375.05 / EMA50 376.03 / POC 374.80 cluster - triple confluence support. T2 = 52w high 445.91.
TXN - Long (MACD bull + POC reclaim)
Entry: 278.10 · Stop: 265.60 · T1: 296.90 · T2: 315.60 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
MACD above signal and back above zero (0.76 vs -1.71); close reclaimed POC 277.19 and EMA50 271.07 on a +2.74% day. Stop 1.5x ATR (8.33) below entry, beneath EMA20 267.25. 52w high 334.03 above T2.
QCOM - Long (momentum, above-average volume)
Entry: 201.00 · Stop: 188.00 · T1: 220.50 · T2: 240.00 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
+3.97% on 1.21x rel vol; Bull above all, RSI 67.6, MACD bull. Buy near Monday pivot 200.78 rather than chase; stop 1.5x ATR (8.66), above EMA20 183.92. 52w high 259.92 leaves room.
ADBE - Short (downtrend, expanding bear momentum)
Entry: 235.50 · Stop: 249.80 · T1: 214.10 · T2: 192.60 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
Bear below all; MACD -6.65 well below signal -3.27; RSI 36.6 not yet oversold; below POC 250.29. Stop 1.5x ATR (9.53), under EMA20 253.16. T2 near 52w low 190.12.
MELI - Short (strongest bearish momentum in the 40)
Entry: 1,752.60 · Stop: 1,840.40 · T1: 1,621.00 · T2: 1,500.00 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:2.9
Bear below all with the widest MACD histogram in the index (-17.76); RSI 36.1; EMA20 1845.89 / EMA50 1849.46 / POC 1856.55 overhead as a resistance shelf. Stop 1.5x ATR (58.5). T2 just above 52w low 1,495.
MU is deliberately excluded - earnings Wed 30 Sep after the close (implied move ~9%). Do not hold swing size through the print without a plan.
Intraday Setups (Monday 28 Sep)
NAS100 - Camarilla R4 breakout (long)
Entry: 30,755.00 · Stop: 30,700.00 · T1: 30,817.00 · T2: 30,966.00 · R:R: 1:1.1 / 1:3.8
Break and hold above Cam R4 30,747.8 targets classic R2 30,817 then R3 30,966. Stop 30,700 - back inside the R3/R4 band means the breakout failed. Watch the 52w high 30,770.6 - acceptance above it is the trigger.
NAS100 - Camarilla S3 bounce (long)
Entry: 30,540.00 · Stop: 30,450.00 · T1: 30,631.00 · T2: 30,678.00 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:1.5
Buy the Cam S3 30,538 test in a bull trend; stop below Cam S4 30,468 / classic S1 30,458.6. T1 Cam R1 30,631, T2 Cam R3 30,678. Skip if price opens below S4.
MSFT - Pivot bounce (long)
Entry: 511.00 · Stop: 504.00 · T1: 522.30 · T2: 528.40 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.5
+3.66% on 1.74x rel vol - strongest volume of the mega-caps. Buy pullback to pivot 510.94; stop under Cam S4 503.99; T1 Cam R3 522.26, T2 Cam R4 528.35.
PYPL - Pivot bounce (long)
Entry: 54.30 · Stop: 53.26 · T1: 55.93 · T2: 56.82 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.4
+4.64% on 1.38x rel vol, closed exactly on POC 55.04 and above all EMAs. Buy pivot 54.30; stop Cam S4 53.26; T1 Cam R3 55.93, T2 Cam R4 56.82.
META - Camarilla S4 breakdown (short)
Entry: 738.90 · Stop: 745.50 · T1: 732.89 · T2: 719.25 · R:R: 1:0.9 / 1:3.0
-3.33% reversal from RSI 71.3 after a ~32% month. Short only on a break below Cam S4 738.99; stop just above Cam S3 745.33. Counter-trend - smaller size, take profits quickly.
Key Levels Dashboard
MSFT 516.17
Cam: S4 503.99 · S3 510.08 · S1 514.14 || R1 518.20 · R3 522.26 · R4 528.35
Classic: S3 480.33 · S2 488.79 · S1 502.48 · P 510.94 · R1 524.63 · R2 533.09 · R3 546.78
EMA20 497.30 · EMA50 476.90 · EMA200 446.31 · POC 455.48 · Prev H/L 519.40/497.25 · 52w H/L 553.72/349.20
NVDA 225.07
Cam: S4 222.97 · S3 224.02 · S1 224.72 || R1 225.42 · R3 226.12 · R4 227.17
Classic: S3 219.34 · S2 221.24 · S1 223.15 · P 225.05 · R1 226.96 · R2 228.86 · R3 230.77
EMA20 221.50 · EMA50 217.14 · EMA200 200.78 · POC 213.65 · Prev H/L 226.94/223.13 · 52w H/L 236.54/164.27
META 751.66
Cam: S4 738.99 · S3 745.33 · S1 749.55 || R1 753.77 · R3 757.99 · R4 764.33
Classic: S3 719.25 · S2 732.89 · S1 742.28 · P 755.92 · R1 765.31 · R2 778.95 · R3 788.34
EMA20 677.66 · EMA50 636.08 · EMA200 627.92 · POC 628.26 · Prev H/L 769.57/746.54 · 52w H/L 779.82/520.26
AMD 630.59
Cam: S4 623.18 · S3 626.88 · S1 629.35 || R1 631.83 · R3 634.30 · R4 638.00
Classic: S3 610.93 · S2 618.22 · S1 624.41 · P 631.70 · R1 637.89 · R2 645.18 · R3 651.37
EMA20 550.19 · EMA50 515.47 · EMA200 397.91 · POC 512.08 · Prev H/L 639.00/625.52 · 52w H/L 639.00/154.78
MU 1,082.28
Cam: S4 1,062.63 · S3 1,072.46 · S1 1,079.01 || R1 1,085.55 · R3 1,092.10 · R4 1,101.93
Classic: S3 1,031.56 · S2 1,052.28 · S1 1,067.28 · P 1,088.00 · R1 1,103.00 · R2 1,123.72 · R3 1,138.72
EMA20 1,005.72 · EMA50 961.61 · EMA200 713.14 · POC 929.91 · Prev H/L 1,108.72/1,073.00 · 52w H/L 1,255.00/154.65
Bearish Warnings
EMA50 below EMA200 (death-cross regime): TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY (14/40).
Bearish MACD (below signal): MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, INTU, CSCO, BKNG, REGN, MELI, ABNB, DASH, CEG, WDAY (14/40). Note MSFT: MACD still below signal despite +3.66% - needs follow-through to confirm.
Overbought RSI (70+): META 71.3, AMD 73. META already reversed -3.33% from RSI 71.3; AMD at RSI 73 sits on its 52w high 639.00 - watch for a lower-high RSI divergence on any new high.
Within 10% of 52w low: TMUS (+2.7%), ORLY (+4.3%), INTU (+9.1%), BKNG (+9.2%), COST (+9.3%), NFLX (+9.3%).
Oversold: INTU RSI 29.6, -60.8% from its 52w high - capitulation risk both ways; avoid fresh shorts there.
Index: NDX up day on 0.83x average volume; MACD histogram flattening; 10-yr yield ~5.2% remains the key macro threat to long-duration tech.
Events Calendar
Mon 28 Sep: Dallas Fed manufacturing (Sep).
Tue 29 Sep: Conference Board consumer confidence (Sep), JOLTS job openings (Aug), Case-Shiller (Jul).
Wed 30 Sep: ADP payrolls (Sep); August PCE - headline exp. +0.4% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core exp. +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y; Q2 GDP (final); Chicago PMI. Micron (MU) Q4 FY26 earnings after the close - EPS est. ~$31.45, revenue ~$50.8bn, implied move ~9%.
Thu 1 Oct: ISM manufacturing (Sep), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final), weekly jobless claims, Challenger job cuts.
Fri 2 Oct: Non-farm payrolls (Sep) - exp. +100k (prior +162k), unemployment 4.2% (prior 4.1%), AHE +0.3% m/m. Last jobs report before the late-October FOMC.
Other: No other of the 40 components appear on this week's earnings calendars. Fed-speaker schedule not confirmed at time of writing - check before the open.
Report: 25 Sep 2026 22:01 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.
Data: Close Fri 25 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 30,608.13 | Change: +129.28 (+0.42%) | Range: 30,413.58-30,667.56
Scanner data: 25 Sep 2026 close (all 40 components). Week: +963.96 (+3.25%) vs 18 Sep close 29,644.17.
Market Overview
The NAS100 closed 30,608.13, +129.28 pts (+0.42%), inside a 254-pt range (30,413.58-30,667.56) and just 162 pts below Tuesday's 52-week high of 30,770.63. That seals a +3.25% week - Monday's 838-pt gap-and-go (+2.83%) did the heavy lifting, and Wed-Fri has been a tight 30,204-30,707 consolidation.
Drivers: Stocks shrugged off a global bond sell-off that took the US 10-year yield to ~5.2% (highest since the financial crisis). WTI crude fell ~2.8% to ~$92 on reports of US-Iran talks over a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation fears. Costco beat on revenue ($95.72bn vs $94.88bn est.) and EPS ($6.75 vs $6.53) and closed +2.93% on 2x relative volume. Meta gave back 3.33% after a ~16% week and ~32% month on its Muse AI agent. Final UMich sentiment 48.1 with 1-yr inflation expectations at 4.6%. The Trump-Xi summit ended with trade relations held at status quo.
Volatility: VIX ~15.1 intraday Friday (-3.5%) - complacent, not fearful.
Volume: NDX volume 1.06bn vs 20-day avg 1.28bn (0.83x) - the up day came on light participation.
Bias: Bullish above 30,204 (Thursday's low / S3). Consolidation under the 30,770 high into a heavy data week (PCE, Micron, NFP). A daily close above 30,771 opens 31,000; a close below 30,204 targets the unfilled gap 29,648-29,933.
Trend
EMA stack: Price 30,608 > EMA20 29,800.1 > EMA50 29,463.7 > EMA200 27,742.4 - full bullish alignment, all three EMAs rising.
Distance: +2.7% above EMA20, +3.9% above EMA50, +10.3% above EMA200 - extended but not stretched.
Structure: Base low 28,753 (16 Sep) -> breakout Monday -> new 52w high 30,770.63 (22 Sep) -> shallow pullback low 30,204 (24 Sep). Unfilled breakaway gap 29,648-29,933 below.
Phase: Markup / post-breakout consolidation (bull flag type pause).
Indicators
RSI(14): 64.7 - bullish zone. Peaked 68.0 at the 22 Sep high; price and RSI both slightly lower since, so no bearish divergence yet - but a new price high on RSI below 68 would create one.
MACD(12,26,9): 310.7 vs signal 164.9 - bullish, crossed up 18 Sep. Histogram flattening (147.2 -> 146.7 -> 145.
: momentum is plateauing, not reversing.ATR(14): 389 pts - use for stop sizing on the index.
Volume: Lower every session since the 2.52bn 18 Sep spike (quad-witching) - healthy for a pause, weak for a breakout.
Key Index Levels
Resistance: R1 30,667.6 (Fri high / Cam R3 30,678.0) · R2 30,770.6 (52w high) · R3 31,000 (round number / classic R3 30,966.6)
Support: S1 30,413.6 (Fri low) · S2 30,204.2 (24 Sep low / classic S3 30,204.7) · S3 29,800-29,933 (EMA20 + top of gap)
Classic pivots (Mon): S2 30,309.1 · S1 30,458.6 · P 30,563.1 · R1 30,712.6 · R2 30,817.1
Camarilla (Mon): S4 30,468.4 · S3 30,538.3 || R3 30,678.0 · R4 30,747.8
Round numbers: 30,500 · 30,000 · 31,000
Component Signals (all 40)
Format: Close (day %) · Trend (strict EMA) · RSI · MACD · vs 52w high · vs POC (60d VWAP) · rel vol
Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 341.07 (+1.53%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 65.7 Bullish · MACD Bull · -1.2% from 52wH · above POC (+6.5%) · rv 0.69
MSFT 516.17 (+3.66%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.2 Bullish · MACD Bear · -6.8% from 52wH · above POC (+13.3%) · rv 1.74
NVDA 225.07 (+0.22%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -4.8% from 52wH · above POC (+5.3%) · rv 0.75
AMZN 249.67 (+0.12%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 44.5 Neutral · MACD Bear · -13.1% from 52wH · below POC (-2.2%) · rv 0.93
META 751.66 (-3.33%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 71.3 Overbought · MACD Bull · -3.6% from 52wH · above POC (+19.6%) · rv 1.11
GOOGL 343.92 (+0.46%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 49.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.8% from 52wH · below POC (-0.9%) · rv 0.79
AVGO 352.81 (+0.70%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 43.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.7% from 52wH · below POC (-5.8%) · rv 0.57
TSLA 372.11 (-1.54%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 55.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -25.4% from 52wH · above POC (+4.3%) · rv 1.12
Semiconductors
AMD 630.59 (+0.21%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 73 Overbought · MACD Bull · -1.3% from 52wH · above POC (+23.1%) · rv 0.8
QCOM 201.97 (+3.97%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 67.6 Bullish · MACD Bull · -22.3% from 52wH · above POC (+16.7%) · rv 1.21
TXN 278.07 (+2.74%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 60.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -16.8% from 52wH · above POC (+0.3%) · rv 0.64
AMAT 485.00 (+2.27%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 55.7 Neutral · MACD Bull · -34.4% from 52wH · below POC (-5.2%) · rv 0.75
MU 1,082.28 (+0.16%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.2 Bullish · MACD Bull · -13.8% from 52wH · above POC (+16.4%) · rv 0.78
LRCX 315.21 (+2.62%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 56.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -28.1% from 52wH · above POC (+1.6%) · rv 0.76
KLAC 187.92 (+0.43%) · Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) · RSI 54.1 Neutral · MACD Bull · -38.9% from 52wH · below POC (-4.7%) · rv 0.74
ADI 393.60 (+2.87%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 62.3 Bullish · MACD Bull · -11.7% from 52wH · above POC (+5.0%) · rv 0.7
MRVL 261.94 (+1.15%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 63.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -20.6% from 52wH · above POC (+18.4%) · rv 0.58
Software/Cloud/Cyber
ADBE 235.47 (-1.45%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.6 Weak · MACD Bear · -35.3% from 52wH · below POC (-5.9%) · rv 0.55
INTU 275.79 (-0.48%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 29.6 Oversold · MACD Bear · -60.8% from 52wH · below POC (-12.8%) · rv 0.88
CSCO 106.70 (-0.25%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 41.7 Neutral · MACD Bear · -18.2% from 52wH · below POC (-5.8%) · rv 0.86
PANW 374.74 (-3.89%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 54.4 Neutral · MACD Bull · -6.1% from 52wH · above POC (+6.1%) · rv 0.68
SNPS 425.76 (+0.20%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 59.8 Neutral · MACD Bull · -21.1% from 52wH · above POC (+5.4%) · rv 1.13
CDNS 326.13 (+1.28%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 61.3 Bullish · MACD Bull · -21.7% from 52wH · above POC (+0.6%) · rv 1
CRWD 252.13 (-2.90%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 62.1 Bullish · MACD Bull · -4.4% from 52wH · above POC (+18.4%) · rv 0.61
FTNT 173.46 (-2.92%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.6 Neutral · MACD Bull · -4.4% from 52wH · above POC (+7.5%) · rv 0.55
WDAY 189.45 (-0.81%) · Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) · RSI 50.2 Neutral · MACD Bear · -24.2% from 52wH · above POC (+9.0%) · rv 0.36
Consumer/Internet
COST 922.77 (+2.93%) · Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) · RSI 52.3 Neutral · MACD Bull · -15.8% from 52wH · below POC (-1.0%) · rv 1.99
NFLX 71.15 (-0.80%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 37.1 Weak · MACD Bear · -43.0% from 52wH · below POC (-4.3%) · rv 0.69
BKNG 163.95 (+4.15%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 33.7 Weak · MACD Bear · -27.1% from 52wH · below POC (-12.0%) · rv 0.96
MELI 1,752.61 (-0.09%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.1 Weak · MACD Bear · -31.2% from 52wH · below POC (-5.6%) · rv 0.9
MAR 352.03 (+0.15%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 57.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -14.3% from 52wH · below POC (-0.7%) · rv 0.78
ABNB 157.47 (+4.02%) · Bear (below 20/50) · RSI 38.3 Weak · MACD Bear · -18.6% from 52wH · below POC (-5.7%) · rv 1.05
DASH 193.36 (+3.11%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 39.8 Weak · MACD Bear · -32.3% from 52wH · below POC (-5.0%) · rv 0.74
PYPL 55.04 (+4.64%) · Bull (above all) · RSI 52 Neutral · MACD Bull · -30.5% from 52wH · =POC · rv 1.38
ORLY 86.12 (-0.14%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 47.5 Neutral · MACD Bull · -20.8% from 52wH · below POC (-1.8%) · rv 0.62
TMUS 165.43 (+0.05%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 36.6 Weak · MACD Bear · -31.7% from 52wH · below POC (-7.4%) · rv 0.75
Healthcare/Biotech
ISRG 405.18 (+1.42%) · Bull (above 20/50) · RSI 65.4 Bullish · MACD Bull · -32.9% from 52wH · above POC (+7.7%) · rv 1.02
REGN 788.04 (-1.00%) · Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) · RSI 48 Neutral · MACD Bear · -8.3% from 52wH · above POC (+4.5%) · rv 0.79
Industrial/Other
LIN 469.89 (+0.37%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 46.2 Neutral · MACD Bull · -14.3% from 52wH · below POC (-4.3%) · rv 0.82
CEG 263.27 (+0.63%) · Bear (below all) · RSI 43.8 Neutral · MACD Bear · -36.2% from 52wH · below POC (-1.6%) · rv 0.6
Breadth: 21 bullish · 15 bearish · 4 mixed. Advancers 27 / decliners 13.
Sector Grouping
Mega-cap Tech (avg +0.23%, 5 bull / 3 bear / 0 mixed): Split. AAPL (-1.2% from 52wH), MSFT (1.74x vol) and META lead; NVDA holding above all EMAs. AMZN and GOOGL slipped back below EMA20/50 (holding EMA200); AVGO is below all three and 28.7% off its high. TSLA above 20/50 but still under EMA200.
Semiconductors (avg +1.82%, 8 bull / 0 bear / 1 mixed): Strongest group - 8 of 9 above all EMAs. AMD at a 52w high (RSI 73), MU into earnings, QCOM/TXN/ADI/LRCX/AMAT all green 2%+. Only KLAC mixed (below EMA50).
Software/Cloud/Cyber (avg -1.25%, 5 bull / 3 bear / 1 mixed): Two-speed. Cyber (PANW, CRWD, FTNT) in uptrends but sold -2.9% to -3.9% Friday; EDA (SNPS, CDNS) recovering above 20/50. ADBE and INTU in firm downtrends; CSCO below 20/50.
Consumer/Internet (avg +1.80%, 2 bull / 7 bear / 1 mixed): Weakest group - 6 of 10 below all EMAs (NFLX, BKNG, MELI, DASH, TMUS, ORLY) and ABNB below 20/50. Friday's +3-4% bounces in BKNG, ABNB and DASH came inside downtrends - relief so far, not trend change. PYPL (+4.64%) and MAR are the only names above all EMAs; COST reclaimed EMA20 only.
Healthcare/Biotech (avg +0.21%, 1 bull / 0 bear / 1 mixed): ISRG above 20/50 with MACD bull and RSI 65.4 but still under EMA200 431.09. REGN mixed - lost EMA20, MACD bearish.
Industrial/Other (avg +0.50%, 0 bull / 2 bear / 0 mixed): LIN and CEG both below all EMAs; CEG -36.2% from high. No leadership here.
Top Swing Setups
ADI - Long (trend continuation)
Entry: 393.60 · Stop: 374.00 · T1: 423.00 · T2: 445.90 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:2.7
Bull above all; MACD bull (hist +3.59); RSI 62.3. Stop sits under the EMA20 375.05 / EMA50 376.03 / POC 374.80 cluster - triple confluence support. T2 = 52w high 445.91.
TXN - Long (MACD bull + POC reclaim)
Entry: 278.10 · Stop: 265.60 · T1: 296.90 · T2: 315.60 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
MACD above signal and back above zero (0.76 vs -1.71); close reclaimed POC 277.19 and EMA50 271.07 on a +2.74% day. Stop 1.5x ATR (8.33) below entry, beneath EMA20 267.25. 52w high 334.03 above T2.
QCOM - Long (momentum, above-average volume)
Entry: 201.00 · Stop: 188.00 · T1: 220.50 · T2: 240.00 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
+3.97% on 1.21x rel vol; Bull above all, RSI 67.6, MACD bull. Buy near Monday pivot 200.78 rather than chase; stop 1.5x ATR (8.66), above EMA20 183.92. 52w high 259.92 leaves room.
ADBE - Short (downtrend, expanding bear momentum)
Entry: 235.50 · Stop: 249.80 · T1: 214.10 · T2: 192.60 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:3.0
Bear below all; MACD -6.65 well below signal -3.27; RSI 36.6 not yet oversold; below POC 250.29. Stop 1.5x ATR (9.53), under EMA20 253.16. T2 near 52w low 190.12.
MELI - Short (strongest bearish momentum in the 40)
Entry: 1,752.60 · Stop: 1,840.40 · T1: 1,621.00 · T2: 1,500.00 · R:R: 1:1.5 / 1:2.9
Bear below all with the widest MACD histogram in the index (-17.76); RSI 36.1; EMA20 1845.89 / EMA50 1849.46 / POC 1856.55 overhead as a resistance shelf. Stop 1.5x ATR (58.5). T2 just above 52w low 1,495.
MU is deliberately excluded - earnings Wed 30 Sep after the close (implied move ~9%). Do not hold swing size through the print without a plan.
Intraday Setups (Monday 28 Sep)
NAS100 - Camarilla R4 breakout (long)
Entry: 30,755.00 · Stop: 30,700.00 · T1: 30,817.00 · T2: 30,966.00 · R:R: 1:1.1 / 1:3.8
Break and hold above Cam R4 30,747.8 targets classic R2 30,817 then R3 30,966. Stop 30,700 - back inside the R3/R4 band means the breakout failed. Watch the 52w high 30,770.6 - acceptance above it is the trigger.
NAS100 - Camarilla S3 bounce (long)
Entry: 30,540.00 · Stop: 30,450.00 · T1: 30,631.00 · T2: 30,678.00 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:1.5
Buy the Cam S3 30,538 test in a bull trend; stop below Cam S4 30,468 / classic S1 30,458.6. T1 Cam R1 30,631, T2 Cam R3 30,678. Skip if price opens below S4.
MSFT - Pivot bounce (long)
Entry: 511.00 · Stop: 504.00 · T1: 522.30 · T2: 528.40 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.5
+3.66% on 1.74x rel vol - strongest volume of the mega-caps. Buy pullback to pivot 510.94; stop under Cam S4 503.99; T1 Cam R3 522.26, T2 Cam R4 528.35.
PYPL - Pivot bounce (long)
Entry: 54.30 · Stop: 53.26 · T1: 55.93 · T2: 56.82 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.4
+4.64% on 1.38x rel vol, closed exactly on POC 55.04 and above all EMAs. Buy pivot 54.30; stop Cam S4 53.26; T1 Cam R3 55.93, T2 Cam R4 56.82.
META - Camarilla S4 breakdown (short)
Entry: 738.90 · Stop: 745.50 · T1: 732.89 · T2: 719.25 · R:R: 1:0.9 / 1:3.0
-3.33% reversal from RSI 71.3 after a ~32% month. Short only on a break below Cam S4 738.99; stop just above Cam S3 745.33. Counter-trend - smaller size, take profits quickly.
Key Levels Dashboard
MSFT 516.17
Cam: S4 503.99 · S3 510.08 · S1 514.14 || R1 518.20 · R3 522.26 · R4 528.35
Classic: S3 480.33 · S2 488.79 · S1 502.48 · P 510.94 · R1 524.63 · R2 533.09 · R3 546.78
EMA20 497.30 · EMA50 476.90 · EMA200 446.31 · POC 455.48 · Prev H/L 519.40/497.25 · 52w H/L 553.72/349.20
NVDA 225.07
Cam: S4 222.97 · S3 224.02 · S1 224.72 || R1 225.42 · R3 226.12 · R4 227.17
Classic: S3 219.34 · S2 221.24 · S1 223.15 · P 225.05 · R1 226.96 · R2 228.86 · R3 230.77
EMA20 221.50 · EMA50 217.14 · EMA200 200.78 · POC 213.65 · Prev H/L 226.94/223.13 · 52w H/L 236.54/164.27
META 751.66
Cam: S4 738.99 · S3 745.33 · S1 749.55 || R1 753.77 · R3 757.99 · R4 764.33
Classic: S3 719.25 · S2 732.89 · S1 742.28 · P 755.92 · R1 765.31 · R2 778.95 · R3 788.34
EMA20 677.66 · EMA50 636.08 · EMA200 627.92 · POC 628.26 · Prev H/L 769.57/746.54 · 52w H/L 779.82/520.26
AMD 630.59
Cam: S4 623.18 · S3 626.88 · S1 629.35 || R1 631.83 · R3 634.30 · R4 638.00
Classic: S3 610.93 · S2 618.22 · S1 624.41 · P 631.70 · R1 637.89 · R2 645.18 · R3 651.37
EMA20 550.19 · EMA50 515.47 · EMA200 397.91 · POC 512.08 · Prev H/L 639.00/625.52 · 52w H/L 639.00/154.78
MU 1,082.28
Cam: S4 1,062.63 · S3 1,072.46 · S1 1,079.01 || R1 1,085.55 · R3 1,092.10 · R4 1,101.93
Classic: S3 1,031.56 · S2 1,052.28 · S1 1,067.28 · P 1,088.00 · R1 1,103.00 · R2 1,123.72 · R3 1,138.72
EMA20 1,005.72 · EMA50 961.61 · EMA200 713.14 · POC 929.91 · Prev H/L 1,108.72/1,073.00 · 52w H/L 1,255.00/154.65
Bearish Warnings
EMA50 below EMA200 (death-cross regime): TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY (14/40).
Bearish MACD (below signal): MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, INTU, CSCO, BKNG, REGN, MELI, ABNB, DASH, CEG, WDAY (14/40). Note MSFT: MACD still below signal despite +3.66% - needs follow-through to confirm.
Overbought RSI (70+): META 71.3, AMD 73. META already reversed -3.33% from RSI 71.3; AMD at RSI 73 sits on its 52w high 639.00 - watch for a lower-high RSI divergence on any new high.
Within 10% of 52w low: TMUS (+2.7%), ORLY (+4.3%), INTU (+9.1%), BKNG (+9.2%), COST (+9.3%), NFLX (+9.3%).
Oversold: INTU RSI 29.6, -60.8% from its 52w high - capitulation risk both ways; avoid fresh shorts there.
Index: NDX up day on 0.83x average volume; MACD histogram flattening; 10-yr yield ~5.2% remains the key macro threat to long-duration tech.
Events Calendar
Mon 28 Sep: Dallas Fed manufacturing (Sep).
Tue 29 Sep: Conference Board consumer confidence (Sep), JOLTS job openings (Aug), Case-Shiller (Jul).
Wed 30 Sep: ADP payrolls (Sep); August PCE - headline exp. +0.4% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core exp. +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y; Q2 GDP (final); Chicago PMI. Micron (MU) Q4 FY26 earnings after the close - EPS est. ~$31.45, revenue ~$50.8bn, implied move ~9%.
Thu 1 Oct: ISM manufacturing (Sep), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final), weekly jobless claims, Challenger job cuts.
Fri 2 Oct: Non-farm payrolls (Sep) - exp. +100k (prior +162k), unemployment 4.2% (prior 4.1%), AHE +0.3% m/m. Last jobs report before the late-October FOMC.
Other: No other of the 40 components appear on this week's earnings calendars. Fed-speaker schedule not confirmed at time of writing - check before the open.
Report: 25 Sep 2026 22:01 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.
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1 month 5 days ago #18857
by remo
Replied by remo on topic NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups
NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Monday 21 September 2026
Data: Close Friday 18 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,644.17 | Change: +197.19 (+0.67%) | Range: 29,371.89-29,647.80
IMPORTANT - DATA DATE: The component scanner did not publish a NAS100 set for Monday 21 Sep. Every stock level, EMA, pivot and Camarilla figure below is calculated from the Friday 18 September close and is one session old. Monday 21 Sep was a strong up day (see Market Overview) - refresh levels before acting on them.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Friday 18 Sep close (levels used in this report): NAS100 29,644.17, +197.19 (+0.67%), range 29,371.89-29,647.80. A quiet finish to the week in which the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years.
Monday 21 Sep session (context only - no component data): a broad risk-on rally. Nasdaq Composite +2.26% to a record 27,122.09, S&P 500 +1.49% to 7,764.70, Dow +0.71% to 52,048.83, Russell 2000 +0.55% to 2,876.06. Best session since early August.
Drivers: falling oil (WTI -2.50% to 97.79, Brent -2.49% to 101.30) as Saudi export capacity recovered and UN General Assembly diplomacy raised hopes on Iran; Treasury yields backed off, the 10Y easing from 5.00% to 4.951% and the 30Y to 5.28%; and a hard bid under AI names. S&P Comm Services +3.84% and Technology +2.83% led, Energy -1.89% was the sole major laggard.
Standout movers Monday: Intel +12.17%, Meta +11.34%, AMD +9.95% (crossed 1trn market cap on reports of a 10% price rise on some AI accelerators), Warner Bros Discovery +10.79%. Novo Nordisk -8.01%, HP -3.39%, UPS -2.78%.
Volatility: VIX -4.08% to 14.81 - complacent, not fearful. Gold 4,396.60, silver 66.80, Bitcoin +5.13% to 84,402.56 on a short squeeze.
Bias: Constructive short term. The index is pressing the upper end of its range with falling oil and yields as tailwinds, but breadth inside the 40 tracked components was flat as of Friday (20 advancers, 20 decliners, average change +0.17%) and only 18 of 40 sat above their 60-day VWAP. This is a narrow, mega-cap and semiconductor-led advance, not a broad one.
TREND STRUCTURE
Measured on Friday closes against the strict EMA stack (close vs each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA):
Bullish (above all three EMAs): 16 of 40 - AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AMD, QCOM, PANW, MU, ADI, CRWD, MRVL, FTNT, WDAY plus TSLA and ISRG which are above the 20 and 50 but still below their 200.
Bearish (below all three EMAs): 16 of 40 - AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, MAR, DASH, CEG, PYPL, ORLY.
Below the 20 and 50 but holding the 200 (six): AMZN, CSCO, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ABNB. Mixed (two): TXN (above 20, below 50, above 200), REGN (below 20, above 50, above 200).
Longer-term damage: 14 of the 40 now have the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA - META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. That is a third of the basket carrying death-cross structure even while the index itself sits near highs.
Phase: Index-level uptrend, component-level rotation. Leadership is concentrated in mega-cap tech and memory/AI semis; consumer internet and staples-like names are in clear downtrends.
MOMENTUM AND VOLUME INDICATORS
RSI(14): No component was overbought above 70 on Friday. Strongest: META 65.8, AMD 65.4, AAPL 64.3, ISRG 61.2, CRWD 60.4. Weakest: BKNG 27.4 (oversold), LIN 32.4, CDNS 34.8, DASH 35.0, COST 35.9, NFLX 36.3, TMUS 36.3.
Divergences: AAPL is within 2.4% of its 52-week high with RSI 64.3 and a rising MACD - momentum confirms price, no negative divergence. META carried RSI 65.8 while sitting 15.8% below its 52-week high, which is momentum leading price and typically a constructive sign; Monday plus 11.34% went some way to validating it. On the bear side, BKNG at RSI 27.4 is stretched to the downside and only 11.8% above its 52-week low - oversold is not a buy signal in a downtrend, but chasing it short here carries snap-back risk.
MACD: Only 17 of 40 had MACD above signal. Bullish and expanding: META (24.03 vs 16.23), AMD (12.75 vs 4.32), CRWD (9.34 vs 6.34), AAPL (5.52 vs 3.91), QCOM (4.62 vs 3.05), TSLA (3.81 vs 3.64), MRVL (3.74 vs 2.05), PANW (3.70 vs 1.32), FTNT (3.15 vs 1.84). Fresh bullish crossovers to watch: MU (11.33 vs 10.97) and ISRG (0.87 vs -2.25). Deepest bearish: AMAT (-21.59), COST (-13.96), LRCX (-9.91), LIN (-8.53), BKNG (-8.34).
Volume: Relative volume was elevated across the board on Friday (quarterly expiry). Highest conviction readings: QCOM 3.82x on a -5.82% day, NFLX 3.22x on -4.67% - both heavy distribution; TXN 3.07x on +3.29%, AMAT 2.02x on +6.51%, LRCX 2.13x on +6.98%, KLAC 1.91x on +4.74% - genuine accumulation in equipment semis. REGN 3.15x and CSCO 2.48x also traded well above average.
KEY INDEX LEVELS
Derived from the 18 Sep session (29,371.89-29,647.80, close 29,644.17). Monday rallied hard, so the index likely trades above these - treat R1/R2 as reference, not as fresh resistance.
Support: S1 29,540 (Friday midpoint) . S2 29,372 (Friday low) . S3 29,200 (prior breakout shelf)
Resistance: R1 29,648 (Friday high) . R2 30,000 (round number and psychological line) . R3 30,350
Classic pivots (18 Sep basis): S2 29,333 . S1 29,516 . P 29,554 . R1 29,792 . R2 29,830
Round numbers in play: 29,500 . 29,750 . 30,000 . 30,500. The index has never closed above 30,000 - that is the level the tape is working toward and the one most likely to produce a fight.
COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40 (18 Sep close)
Format: TICKER . Close . Day % . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI zone . MACD . % from 52w high . vs 60d POC
AAPL . 336.13 . -0.26% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -2.4% from 52w high . Above POC
MSFT . 493.78 . -0.80% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -10.8% from 52w high . Above POC
NVDA . 222.27 . +1.34% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.2 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -6.0% from 52w high . Above POC
AMZN . 253.71 . +1.00% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.0 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -11.7% from 52w high . Above POC
META . 665.75 . -2.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.8 Strong . MACD Bull . -15.8% from 52w high . Above POC
GOOGL . 349.54 . +0.64% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -14.5% from 52w high . Above POC
AVGO . 357.61 . +2.97% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.5 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -27.8% from 52w high . Below POC
TSLA . 364.27 . -0.53% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 53.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -27.0% from 52w high . Above POC
COST . 895.31 . +0.15% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -18.3% from 52w high . Below POC
NFLX . 71.79 . -4.67% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -42.5% from 52w high . Below POC
AMD . 559.82 . +2.70% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.4 Strong . MACD Bull . -4.3% from 52w high . Above POC
ADBE . 248.92 . -1.48% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.4 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -32.9% from 52w high . Above POC
QCOM . 177.72 . -5.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -31.6% from 52w high . Above POC
TMUS . 168.18 . +1.04% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -30.6% from 52w high . Below POC
LIN . 460.40 . +0.42% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -16.0% from 52w high . Below POC
ISRG . 393.33 . +2.55% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 61.2 Strong . MACD Bull . -34.9% from 52w high . Above POC
INTU . 303.19 . -3.17% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -57.0% from 52w high . Below POC
CSCO . 109.51 . -0.66% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.1 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -16.0% from 52w high . Below POC
TXN . 266.64 . +3.29% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 51.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -20.2% from 52w high . Below POC
AMAT . 444.57 . +6.51% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.8 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -39.9% from 52w high . Below POC
BKNG . 167.90 . -1.54% . Bear (below all) . RSI 27.4 Oversold . MACD Bear . -25.4% from 52w high . Below POC
PANW . 363.58 . -3.06% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -8.8% from 52w high . Above POC
MU . 1015.80 . +3.92% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.3 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -19.1% from 52w high . Above POC
LRCX . 288.11 . +6.98% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.5 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -34.3% from 52w high . Below POC
KLAC . 176.99 . +4.74% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.0 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -42.4% from 52w high . Below POC
ADI . 375.72 . +3.60% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -15.7% from 52w high . Below POC
REGN . 784.67 . -0.61% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.7 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -8.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SNPS . 384.97 . +1.00% . Bear (below all) . RSI 43.2 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -28.6% from 52w high . Below POC
CDNS . 282.90 . +0.76% . Bear (below all) . RSI 34.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -32.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MELI . 1787.39 . -2.07% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -29.9% from 52w high . Below POC
CRWD . 237.65 . -3.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.4 Strong . MACD Bull . -5.1% from 52w high . Above POC
MAR . 338.92 . +1.47% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.9 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -17.5% from 52w high . Below POC
ABNB . 166.22 . +0.17% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.3 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -14.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MRVL . 244.25 . +1.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -26.0% from 52w high . Above POC
DASH . 192.94 . -0.83% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -32.4% from 52w high . Below POC
FTNT . 169.84 . -1.59% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -3.6% from 52w high . Above POC
CEG . 254.71 . -3.08% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -38.3% from 52w high . Below POC
WDAY . 193.87 . -2.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -22.4% from 52w high . Above POC
PYPL . 52.41 . -1.00% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -33.8% from 52w high . Below POC
ORLY . 84.71 . -0.21% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -22.1% from 52w high . Below POC
SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech (
Average day change -0.71%, average RSI 53.8, 6 of 8 bullish on the EMA stack, 7 of 8 above POC. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META and GOOGL all above all three EMAs; TSLA above the 20/50 but under its 200; AMZN slipped under its 20 and 50; NFLX is the broken one, below everything and 42.5% off its high. Strongest group in the index.
Semiconductors (10)
Average day change +3.03% - by far the best Friday move, and the equipment names led (LRCX +6.98%, AMAT +6.51%, KLAC +4.74%) on above-average volume. But only 5 of 10 are bullish on the stack and just 4 of 10 are above POC: AMD, MU, ADI and MRVL are in good shape, QCOM is above all EMAs but fell 5.82% on 3.82x volume, while AVGO, AMAT, LRCX and KLAC are still repairing damage. Improving, not yet healthy.
Software / Cloud (9)
Average day change -1.58%, average RSI 47.8, 4 of 9 bullish. PANW, CRWD, FTNT and WDAY are the leaders and all sit above their 60-day VWAP. ADBE, INTU, SNPS and CDNS are below all three EMAs with SNPS and CDNS within 8% of 52-week lows. Sharply two-tier.
Consumer / Internet (9)
Average day change -0.31%, average RSI 37.4, 0 of 9 bullish, 0 of 9 above POC. COST, BKNG, MELI, MAR, DASH, PYPL, ORLY and TMUS are all below all three EMAs; ABNB is below its 20 and 50. TMUS (+2.5%) and ORLY (+2.6%) are sitting almost on their 52-week lows. The weakest corner of the index by a wide margin.
Healthcare / Biotech (2)
ISRG +2.55% and back above its 20 and 50 EMA with a fresh MACD cross, though still 34.9% below its high and well under its 200. REGN traded 3.15x average volume. Both above POC. Basing.
Industrial / Other (2)
LIN +0.42% on the day but below all EMAs with RSI 32.4; CEG -3.08% and below everything, 38.3% off its high, RSI 36.4. Average RSI 34.4. Downtrend intact.
TOP SWING SETUPS
All entries reference 18 Sep levels. Monday was a strong up session, so confirm price is still in the stated zone before committing. Stops are ATR-based.
1. AAPL - long on pullback (highest quality setup in the index)
Above all three EMAs, RSI 64.3, MACD 5.52 over 3.91 and rising, only 2.4% below its 52-week high of 344.57, trading well clear of its 312.78 POC. ATR 7.31.
Entry: 331.00 (S1/S2 zone 329.76-332.94) . Stop: 323.70 (1.0 ATR, under the 20 EMA at 325.02) . T1: 344.57 (52w high) . T2: 352.00 . R:R: 1.86 to T1, 2.88 to T2
Confluence: 20 EMA, classic S1 and the prior breakout shelf all converge in the low 330s. POC 19 points below acts as a deep backstop.
2. MU - long on pullback into the 20 EMA
Above all three EMAs with the 200 EMA far below at 694.58, fresh MACD cross (11.33 over 10.97), RSI 58.3, POC 952.29 beneath price. ATR 49.26 - size accordingly.
Entry: 990.00 (classic S1 990.27) . Stop: 941.00 (1.0 ATR, below the 20 EMA at 960.00 and the POC) . T1: 1,067.49 (R3) . T2: 1,150.00 . R:R: 1.58 to T1, 3.27 to T2
Confluence: 20 EMA at 960.00 and POC at 952.29 stack just above the stop. Event risk: earnings 30 Sep after the close - plan to be flat or reduced into it.
3. CRWD - long on pullback, breakout alternative
Above all three EMAs, RSI 60.4, MACD 9.34 over 6.34, 5.1% below its 52-week high of 250.32, POC 206.02 well below. ATR 12.85.
Entry: 229.50 (S1/S2 zone 227.42-232.53) . Stop: 219.00 (under the 20 EMA at 221.07) . T1: 250.32 (52w high) . T2: 265.00 . R:R: 1.98 to T1, 3.38 to T2
Alternative: buy a clean break and hold above 250.32 with a stop at 237.00.
4. FTNT - long on breakout
Above all three EMAs, RSI 58.0, MACD 3.15 over 1.84, and only 3.6% under its 52-week high of 176.10. Traded 2.28x average volume on Friday. ATR 7.11.
Entry: 176.60 (above the 52w high and classic R2 at 176.47) . Stop: 169.00 (1.07 ATR) . T1: 186.00 . T2: 194.00 . R:R: 1.24 to T1, 2.29 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high, classic R2 and Camarilla R4 (173.61) all cluster just under the entry - a break through that band should run.
5. COST - short on breakdown
Below all three EMAs with the 50 under the 200, RSI 35.9, MACD -13.96 against a -11.08 signal and widening, 18.3% below its high and 4.4% below its POC at 936.75. 52-week low 844.06. ATR 14.29.
Entry: 886.90 (break of classic S2) . Stop: 903.00 (1.13 ATR) . T1: 865.00 . T2: 844.06 (52w low) . R:R: 1.36 to T1, 2.66 to T2
Note: this is a trend-continuation short in the weakest sector of the index, not a fade of strength. It invalidates on a reclaim of 918.00 (the 20 EMA).
INTRADAY SETUPS
Read this first: the pivot and Camarilla numbers below are computed from the 18 September session range. They are valid as a template and as reference levels, but they must be recalculated against the most recent prior-day OHLC before you trade them on Tuesday.
1. NVDA - Camarilla range trade (tightest range in the mega-caps)
Friday range 218.03-222.73, ATR 6.42, close 222.27 above all EMAs. Direction: long the low end. Entry: 221.00 on a hold of Cam S3 220.98 . Stop: 219.55 (below Cam S4 219.69) . T1: 223.56 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.77
Reasoning: compressed range, price above the 20 EMA at 218.50 and 6.0% below the 52-week high - textbook S3/R3 mean-reversion conditions while the trend is up.
2. AAPL - Camarilla breakout
Direction: long. Entry: 339.60 on acceptance above Cam R4 339.41 . Stop: 335.50 (back inside the range, under the pivot at 335.72) . T1: 344.57 (52w high) . T2: 347.00 . R:R: 1.21 to T1
Reasoning: a Cam R4 break is the standard breakout trigger, and here it sits directly beneath a 52-week high with RSI 64.3 behind it. Needs above-average volume to work.
3. MSFT - pivot bounce
Direction: long. Entry: 493.20 on a hold above the 20 EMA (493.29) and Cam S1 (493.09) . Stop: 489.20 (below Cam S4 489.63 and classic S1 490.37) . T1: 497.92 (classic R1) . T2: 502.06 (R2) . R:R: 1.18 to T1, 2.22 to T2
Reasoning: MSFT closed within a fraction of its 20 EMA, so 493 is a genuine decision point. The POC is 58 points below, meaning there is no volume shelf to catch a failure - keep the stop tight.
4. TSLA - Camarilla range trade
Direction: long. Entry: 361.60 at Cam S3 361.48 . Stop: 358.40 (below Cam S4 358.69 and the 20 EMA at 358.38) . T1: 367.06 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.71
Reasoning: the 20 EMA (358.38), 50 EMA (359.58) and POC (359.40) all sit inside a 1.2-point band right under Cam S4 - an unusually dense support cluster. Note the 200 EMA at 378.84 caps the upside, so this is a scalp, not a swing.
5. GOOGL - Camarilla breakout, both ways
Long: entry 355.80 above Cam R4 355.58 . stop 350.40 . T1 363.47 (classic R2) . R:R 1.42. Short: entry 343.30 below Cam S4 343.50 . stop 347.60 . T1 334.52 (classic S3) . R:R 2.04.
Reasoning: GOOGL closed at 349.54 sandwiched between its 20 EMA (343.10) and 50 EMA (346.12) with POC at 346.66 - a genuinely two-sided level. An 11-point Friday range on 1.78x volume says the range wants to expand; trade the break, not the middle.
KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
All figures from the 18 Sep close.
AAPL - close 336.13
Cam: S4 332.85 . S3 334.49 . S1 335.58 || R1 336.68 . R3 337.77 . R4 339.41
Classic: S3 326.98 . S2 329.76 . S1 332.94 . P 335.72 . R1 338.90 . R2 341.68 . R3 344.86
EMAs: 20 325.02 . 50 317.69 . 200 290.20 . POC: 312.78 . ATR: 7.31
Prev day: H 338.49 . L 332.53 . 52-week: H 344.57 . L 236.65
MSFT - close 493.78
Cam: S4 489.63 . S3 491.70 . S1 493.09 || R1 494.47 . R3 495.86 . R4 497.93
Classic: S3 482.82 . S2 486.96 . S1 490.37 . P 494.51 . R1 497.92 . R2 502.06 . R3 505.47
EMAs: 20 493.29 . 50 471.10 . 200 443.41 . POC: 435.38 . ATR: 10.62
Prev day: H 498.65 . L 491.10 . 52-week: H 553.72 . L 349.20
NVDA - close 222.27
Cam: S4 219.69 . S3 220.98 . S1 221.84 || R1 222.70 . R3 223.56 . R4 224.86
Classic: S3 214.59 . S2 216.31 . S1 219.29 . P 221.01 . R1 223.99 . R2 225.71 . R3 228.69
EMAs: 20 218.50 . 50 215.13 . 200 199.47 . POC: 211.07 . ATR: 6.42
Prev day: H 222.73 . L 218.03 . 52-week: H 236.54 . L 164.27
AMZN - close 253.71
Cam: S4 251.76 . S3 252.73 . S1 253.38 || R1 254.04 . R3 254.69 . R4 255.66
Classic: S3 248.37 . S2 250.12 . S1 251.92 . P 253.67 . R1 255.47 . R2 257.22 . R3 259.02
EMAs: 20 255.06 . 50 255.02 . 200 243.09 . POC: 251.41 . ATR: 6.04
Prev day: H 255.43 . L 251.88 . 52-week: H 287.20 . L 196.00
META - close 665.75
Cam: S4 649.61 . S3 657.68 . S1 663.06 || R1 668.44 . R3 673.82 . R4 681.89
Classic: S3 624.97 . S2 642.88 . S1 654.32 . P 672.23 . R1 683.67 . R2 701.58 . R3 713.02
EMAs: 20 629.74 . 50 610.70 . 200 621.64 . POC: 605.38 . ATR: 21.24
Prev day: H 690.15 . L 660.80 . 52-week: H 790.80 . L 520.26
BEARISH WARNINGS
Death-cross structure (50 EMA below 200 EMA) - 14 of 40: META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. META and ISRG are working out of it from above; the rest are not.
Below all three EMAs - 16 of 40: AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, MAR, DASH, CEG, PYPL, ORLY.
Bearish MACD - 23 of 40. Widest and most negative: AMAT -21.59, COST -13.96, LRCX -9.91, LIN -8.53, BKNG -8.34, KLAC -6.23. Note AMAT, LRCX and KLAC rallied hard on Friday despite this - the histogram is closing, but the cross has not happened yet.
Sitting on 52-week lows: TMUS +2.5% above its low, ORLY +2.6%, COST +6.1%, SNPS +6.2%, CDNS +7.7%, NFLX +10.3%, CEG +11.4%, BKNG +11.8%. Eight names in the basket have essentially no support beneath them.
Oversold and still falling: BKNG RSI 27.4, LIN 32.4, CDNS 34.8. None has a momentum divergence yet - oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not an entry.
Distribution on volume: QCOM -5.82% on 3.82x average volume and NFLX -4.67% on 3.22x are the two clearest institutional-selling prints in the basket. QCOM still holds all three EMAs, so it is a warning rather than a break; NFLX has no such cushion.
Breadth: 20 up, 20 down on Friday with only 18 of 40 above their 60-day VWAP and 17 of 40 with a bullish MACD. The index is being carried by a small number of very large names. A stumble in AAPL, MSFT, NVDA or META would not be cushioned by the rest.
EVENTS CALENDAR
Economic data (week of 21-25 Sep): a light data week but a very heavy Fed-speaker week, with around ten central bank appearances scheduled. Tue 22 Sep: Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Wed 23 Sep: Current Account, flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, API crude stocks. Thu 24 Sep: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, EIA crude stocks. Fri 25 Sep: Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, final Q2 GDP, Existing Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Fed context: the FOMC hiked on 16 Sep - the first increase in three years - and signalled further tightening. Every speaker this week is a potential rate-path headline. The 10Y at 4.951% after closing last week at 5.00% is the single most important number for multiple expansion in this index.
Earnings in the basket: MU reports Wednesday 30 September after the close - the only confirmed report among the 40 in the near window. Given memory is the strongest sub-group in the index right now, that print is the main single-stock event risk on the horizon.
Geopolitical: Iranian President Pezeshkian leads a delegation to the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, and the Trump-Xi summit takes place in Washington this week covering tariffs, critical minerals and AI. Both are live headline risks in either direction, and both are currently being priced optimistically - oil has given back a large chunk of its risk premium and the VIX sits at 14.81.
SUMMARY
The index is within touching distance of 30,000 after Monday record-setting session across the Composite, carried by AI and communication services on falling oil and easing yields. Underneath that, the picture as of Friday was much less uniform: 16 of 40 components above all their EMAs, 16 below all of them, a third of the basket carrying a 50/200 death cross, and the entire consumer and internet group in a downtrend with not one name above its 60-day VWAP.
How to trade it: stay with the leaders - AAPL, AMD, MU, CRWD, FTNT, PANW, MRVL - and buy pullbacks into the 20 EMA rather than chasing extension after a plus 2% index day. Avoid the consumer and internet group on the long side. Watch 30,000 on the index: acceptance above it opens 30,350, while rejection there with the VIX this low would be the first real test of the advance.
Report: 21 September 2026 22:15 GMT . Component data: 18 September 2026 close . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.
Data: Close Friday 18 Sep 2026 | NAS100: 29,644.17 | Change: +197.19 (+0.67%) | Range: 29,371.89-29,647.80
IMPORTANT - DATA DATE: The component scanner did not publish a NAS100 set for Monday 21 Sep. Every stock level, EMA, pivot and Camarilla figure below is calculated from the Friday 18 September close and is one session old. Monday 21 Sep was a strong up day (see Market Overview) - refresh levels before acting on them.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Friday 18 Sep close (levels used in this report): NAS100 29,644.17, +197.19 (+0.67%), range 29,371.89-29,647.80. A quiet finish to the week in which the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years.
Monday 21 Sep session (context only - no component data): a broad risk-on rally. Nasdaq Composite +2.26% to a record 27,122.09, S&P 500 +1.49% to 7,764.70, Dow +0.71% to 52,048.83, Russell 2000 +0.55% to 2,876.06. Best session since early August.
Drivers: falling oil (WTI -2.50% to 97.79, Brent -2.49% to 101.30) as Saudi export capacity recovered and UN General Assembly diplomacy raised hopes on Iran; Treasury yields backed off, the 10Y easing from 5.00% to 4.951% and the 30Y to 5.28%; and a hard bid under AI names. S&P Comm Services +3.84% and Technology +2.83% led, Energy -1.89% was the sole major laggard.
Standout movers Monday: Intel +12.17%, Meta +11.34%, AMD +9.95% (crossed 1trn market cap on reports of a 10% price rise on some AI accelerators), Warner Bros Discovery +10.79%. Novo Nordisk -8.01%, HP -3.39%, UPS -2.78%.
Volatility: VIX -4.08% to 14.81 - complacent, not fearful. Gold 4,396.60, silver 66.80, Bitcoin +5.13% to 84,402.56 on a short squeeze.
Bias: Constructive short term. The index is pressing the upper end of its range with falling oil and yields as tailwinds, but breadth inside the 40 tracked components was flat as of Friday (20 advancers, 20 decliners, average change +0.17%) and only 18 of 40 sat above their 60-day VWAP. This is a narrow, mega-cap and semiconductor-led advance, not a broad one.
TREND STRUCTURE
Measured on Friday closes against the strict EMA stack (close vs each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA):
Bullish (above all three EMAs): 16 of 40 - AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AMD, QCOM, PANW, MU, ADI, CRWD, MRVL, FTNT, WDAY plus TSLA and ISRG which are above the 20 and 50 but still below their 200.
Bearish (below all three EMAs): 16 of 40 - AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, MAR, DASH, CEG, PYPL, ORLY.
Below the 20 and 50 but holding the 200 (six): AMZN, CSCO, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ABNB. Mixed (two): TXN (above 20, below 50, above 200), REGN (below 20, above 50, above 200).
Longer-term damage: 14 of the 40 now have the 50 EMA below the 200 EMA - META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. That is a third of the basket carrying death-cross structure even while the index itself sits near highs.
Phase: Index-level uptrend, component-level rotation. Leadership is concentrated in mega-cap tech and memory/AI semis; consumer internet and staples-like names are in clear downtrends.
MOMENTUM AND VOLUME INDICATORS
RSI(14): No component was overbought above 70 on Friday. Strongest: META 65.8, AMD 65.4, AAPL 64.3, ISRG 61.2, CRWD 60.4. Weakest: BKNG 27.4 (oversold), LIN 32.4, CDNS 34.8, DASH 35.0, COST 35.9, NFLX 36.3, TMUS 36.3.
Divergences: AAPL is within 2.4% of its 52-week high with RSI 64.3 and a rising MACD - momentum confirms price, no negative divergence. META carried RSI 65.8 while sitting 15.8% below its 52-week high, which is momentum leading price and typically a constructive sign; Monday plus 11.34% went some way to validating it. On the bear side, BKNG at RSI 27.4 is stretched to the downside and only 11.8% above its 52-week low - oversold is not a buy signal in a downtrend, but chasing it short here carries snap-back risk.
MACD: Only 17 of 40 had MACD above signal. Bullish and expanding: META (24.03 vs 16.23), AMD (12.75 vs 4.32), CRWD (9.34 vs 6.34), AAPL (5.52 vs 3.91), QCOM (4.62 vs 3.05), TSLA (3.81 vs 3.64), MRVL (3.74 vs 2.05), PANW (3.70 vs 1.32), FTNT (3.15 vs 1.84). Fresh bullish crossovers to watch: MU (11.33 vs 10.97) and ISRG (0.87 vs -2.25). Deepest bearish: AMAT (-21.59), COST (-13.96), LRCX (-9.91), LIN (-8.53), BKNG (-8.34).
Volume: Relative volume was elevated across the board on Friday (quarterly expiry). Highest conviction readings: QCOM 3.82x on a -5.82% day, NFLX 3.22x on -4.67% - both heavy distribution; TXN 3.07x on +3.29%, AMAT 2.02x on +6.51%, LRCX 2.13x on +6.98%, KLAC 1.91x on +4.74% - genuine accumulation in equipment semis. REGN 3.15x and CSCO 2.48x also traded well above average.
KEY INDEX LEVELS
Derived from the 18 Sep session (29,371.89-29,647.80, close 29,644.17). Monday rallied hard, so the index likely trades above these - treat R1/R2 as reference, not as fresh resistance.
Support: S1 29,540 (Friday midpoint) . S2 29,372 (Friday low) . S3 29,200 (prior breakout shelf)
Resistance: R1 29,648 (Friday high) . R2 30,000 (round number and psychological line) . R3 30,350
Classic pivots (18 Sep basis): S2 29,333 . S1 29,516 . P 29,554 . R1 29,792 . R2 29,830
Round numbers in play: 29,500 . 29,750 . 30,000 . 30,500. The index has never closed above 30,000 - that is the level the tape is working toward and the one most likely to produce a fight.
COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40 (18 Sep close)
Format: TICKER . Close . Day % . Trend (strict EMA) . RSI zone . MACD . % from 52w high . vs 60d POC
AAPL . 336.13 . -0.26% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.3 Strong . MACD Bull . -2.4% from 52w high . Above POC
MSFT . 493.78 . -0.80% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -10.8% from 52w high . Above POC
NVDA . 222.27 . +1.34% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.2 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -6.0% from 52w high . Above POC
AMZN . 253.71 . +1.00% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.0 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -11.7% from 52w high . Above POC
META . 665.75 . -2.43% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.8 Strong . MACD Bull . -15.8% from 52w high . Above POC
GOOGL . 349.54 . +0.64% . Bull (above all) . RSI 55.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -14.5% from 52w high . Above POC
AVGO . 357.61 . +2.97% . Bear (below all) . RSI 45.5 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -27.8% from 52w high . Below POC
TSLA . 364.27 . -0.53% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 53.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -27.0% from 52w high . Above POC
COST . 895.31 . +0.15% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -18.3% from 52w high . Below POC
NFLX . 71.79 . -4.67% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -42.5% from 52w high . Below POC
AMD . 559.82 . +2.70% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.4 Strong . MACD Bull . -4.3% from 52w high . Above POC
ADBE . 248.92 . -1.48% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.4 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -32.9% from 52w high . Above POC
QCOM . 177.72 . -5.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -31.6% from 52w high . Above POC
TMUS . 168.18 . +1.04% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.3 Weak . MACD Bear . -30.6% from 52w high . Below POC
LIN . 460.40 . +0.42% . Bear (below all) . RSI 32.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -16.0% from 52w high . Below POC
ISRG . 393.33 . +2.55% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 61.2 Strong . MACD Bull . -34.9% from 52w high . Above POC
INTU . 303.19 . -3.17% . Bear (below all) . RSI 38.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -57.0% from 52w high . Below POC
CSCO . 109.51 . -0.66% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.1 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -16.0% from 52w high . Below POC
TXN . 266.64 . +3.29% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 51.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -20.2% from 52w high . Below POC
AMAT . 444.57 . +6.51% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.8 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -39.9% from 52w high . Below POC
BKNG . 167.90 . -1.54% . Bear (below all) . RSI 27.4 Oversold . MACD Bear . -25.4% from 52w high . Below POC
PANW . 363.58 . -3.06% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.1 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -8.8% from 52w high . Above POC
MU . 1015.80 . +3.92% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.3 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -19.1% from 52w high . Above POC
LRCX . 288.11 . +6.98% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.5 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -34.3% from 52w high . Below POC
KLAC . 176.99 . +4.74% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.0 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -42.4% from 52w high . Below POC
ADI . 375.72 . +3.60% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -15.7% from 52w high . Below POC
REGN . 784.67 . -0.61% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.7 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -8.7% from 52w high . Above POC
SNPS . 384.97 . +1.00% . Bear (below all) . RSI 43.2 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -28.6% from 52w high . Below POC
CDNS . 282.90 . +0.76% . Bear (below all) . RSI 34.8 Weak . MACD Bear . -32.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MELI . 1787.39 . -2.07% . Bear (below all) . RSI 37.9 Weak . MACD Bear . -29.9% from 52w high . Below POC
CRWD . 237.65 . -3.28% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.4 Strong . MACD Bull . -5.1% from 52w high . Above POC
MAR . 338.92 . +1.47% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.9 Neutral- . MACD Bull . -17.5% from 52w high . Below POC
ABNB . 166.22 . +0.17% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 40.3 Neutral- . MACD Bear . -14.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MRVL . 244.25 . +1.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -26.0% from 52w high . Above POC
DASH . 192.94 . -0.83% . Bear (below all) . RSI 35.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -32.4% from 52w high . Below POC
FTNT . 169.84 . -1.59% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.0 Neutral+ . MACD Bull . -3.6% from 52w high . Above POC
CEG . 254.71 . -3.08% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -38.3% from 52w high . Below POC
WDAY . 193.87 . -2.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 53.8 Neutral+ . MACD Bear . -22.4% from 52w high . Above POC
PYPL . 52.41 . -1.00% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.4 Weak . MACD Bear . -33.8% from 52w high . Below POC
ORLY . 84.71 . -0.21% . Bear (below all) . RSI 39.7 Weak . MACD Bear . -22.1% from 52w high . Below POC
SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech (
Average day change -0.71%, average RSI 53.8, 6 of 8 bullish on the EMA stack, 7 of 8 above POC. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META and GOOGL all above all three EMAs; TSLA above the 20/50 but under its 200; AMZN slipped under its 20 and 50; NFLX is the broken one, below everything and 42.5% off its high. Strongest group in the index.
Semiconductors (10)
Average day change +3.03% - by far the best Friday move, and the equipment names led (LRCX +6.98%, AMAT +6.51%, KLAC +4.74%) on above-average volume. But only 5 of 10 are bullish on the stack and just 4 of 10 are above POC: AMD, MU, ADI and MRVL are in good shape, QCOM is above all EMAs but fell 5.82% on 3.82x volume, while AVGO, AMAT, LRCX and KLAC are still repairing damage. Improving, not yet healthy.
Software / Cloud (9)
Average day change -1.58%, average RSI 47.8, 4 of 9 bullish. PANW, CRWD, FTNT and WDAY are the leaders and all sit above their 60-day VWAP. ADBE, INTU, SNPS and CDNS are below all three EMAs with SNPS and CDNS within 8% of 52-week lows. Sharply two-tier.
Consumer / Internet (9)
Average day change -0.31%, average RSI 37.4, 0 of 9 bullish, 0 of 9 above POC. COST, BKNG, MELI, MAR, DASH, PYPL, ORLY and TMUS are all below all three EMAs; ABNB is below its 20 and 50. TMUS (+2.5%) and ORLY (+2.6%) are sitting almost on their 52-week lows. The weakest corner of the index by a wide margin.
Healthcare / Biotech (2)
ISRG +2.55% and back above its 20 and 50 EMA with a fresh MACD cross, though still 34.9% below its high and well under its 200. REGN traded 3.15x average volume. Both above POC. Basing.
Industrial / Other (2)
LIN +0.42% on the day but below all EMAs with RSI 32.4; CEG -3.08% and below everything, 38.3% off its high, RSI 36.4. Average RSI 34.4. Downtrend intact.
TOP SWING SETUPS
All entries reference 18 Sep levels. Monday was a strong up session, so confirm price is still in the stated zone before committing. Stops are ATR-based.
1. AAPL - long on pullback (highest quality setup in the index)
Above all three EMAs, RSI 64.3, MACD 5.52 over 3.91 and rising, only 2.4% below its 52-week high of 344.57, trading well clear of its 312.78 POC. ATR 7.31.
Entry: 331.00 (S1/S2 zone 329.76-332.94) . Stop: 323.70 (1.0 ATR, under the 20 EMA at 325.02) . T1: 344.57 (52w high) . T2: 352.00 . R:R: 1.86 to T1, 2.88 to T2
Confluence: 20 EMA, classic S1 and the prior breakout shelf all converge in the low 330s. POC 19 points below acts as a deep backstop.
2. MU - long on pullback into the 20 EMA
Above all three EMAs with the 200 EMA far below at 694.58, fresh MACD cross (11.33 over 10.97), RSI 58.3, POC 952.29 beneath price. ATR 49.26 - size accordingly.
Entry: 990.00 (classic S1 990.27) . Stop: 941.00 (1.0 ATR, below the 20 EMA at 960.00 and the POC) . T1: 1,067.49 (R3) . T2: 1,150.00 . R:R: 1.58 to T1, 3.27 to T2
Confluence: 20 EMA at 960.00 and POC at 952.29 stack just above the stop. Event risk: earnings 30 Sep after the close - plan to be flat or reduced into it.
3. CRWD - long on pullback, breakout alternative
Above all three EMAs, RSI 60.4, MACD 9.34 over 6.34, 5.1% below its 52-week high of 250.32, POC 206.02 well below. ATR 12.85.
Entry: 229.50 (S1/S2 zone 227.42-232.53) . Stop: 219.00 (under the 20 EMA at 221.07) . T1: 250.32 (52w high) . T2: 265.00 . R:R: 1.98 to T1, 3.38 to T2
Alternative: buy a clean break and hold above 250.32 with a stop at 237.00.
4. FTNT - long on breakout
Above all three EMAs, RSI 58.0, MACD 3.15 over 1.84, and only 3.6% under its 52-week high of 176.10. Traded 2.28x average volume on Friday. ATR 7.11.
Entry: 176.60 (above the 52w high and classic R2 at 176.47) . Stop: 169.00 (1.07 ATR) . T1: 186.00 . T2: 194.00 . R:R: 1.24 to T1, 2.29 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high, classic R2 and Camarilla R4 (173.61) all cluster just under the entry - a break through that band should run.
5. COST - short on breakdown
Below all three EMAs with the 50 under the 200, RSI 35.9, MACD -13.96 against a -11.08 signal and widening, 18.3% below its high and 4.4% below its POC at 936.75. 52-week low 844.06. ATR 14.29.
Entry: 886.90 (break of classic S2) . Stop: 903.00 (1.13 ATR) . T1: 865.00 . T2: 844.06 (52w low) . R:R: 1.36 to T1, 2.66 to T2
Note: this is a trend-continuation short in the weakest sector of the index, not a fade of strength. It invalidates on a reclaim of 918.00 (the 20 EMA).
INTRADAY SETUPS
Read this first: the pivot and Camarilla numbers below are computed from the 18 September session range. They are valid as a template and as reference levels, but they must be recalculated against the most recent prior-day OHLC before you trade them on Tuesday.
1. NVDA - Camarilla range trade (tightest range in the mega-caps)
Friday range 218.03-222.73, ATR 6.42, close 222.27 above all EMAs. Direction: long the low end. Entry: 221.00 on a hold of Cam S3 220.98 . Stop: 219.55 (below Cam S4 219.69) . T1: 223.56 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.77
Reasoning: compressed range, price above the 20 EMA at 218.50 and 6.0% below the 52-week high - textbook S3/R3 mean-reversion conditions while the trend is up.
2. AAPL - Camarilla breakout
Direction: long. Entry: 339.60 on acceptance above Cam R4 339.41 . Stop: 335.50 (back inside the range, under the pivot at 335.72) . T1: 344.57 (52w high) . T2: 347.00 . R:R: 1.21 to T1
Reasoning: a Cam R4 break is the standard breakout trigger, and here it sits directly beneath a 52-week high with RSI 64.3 behind it. Needs above-average volume to work.
3. MSFT - pivot bounce
Direction: long. Entry: 493.20 on a hold above the 20 EMA (493.29) and Cam S1 (493.09) . Stop: 489.20 (below Cam S4 489.63 and classic S1 490.37) . T1: 497.92 (classic R1) . T2: 502.06 (R2) . R:R: 1.18 to T1, 2.22 to T2
Reasoning: MSFT closed within a fraction of its 20 EMA, so 493 is a genuine decision point. The POC is 58 points below, meaning there is no volume shelf to catch a failure - keep the stop tight.
4. TSLA - Camarilla range trade
Direction: long. Entry: 361.60 at Cam S3 361.48 . Stop: 358.40 (below Cam S4 358.69 and the 20 EMA at 358.38) . T1: 367.06 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.71
Reasoning: the 20 EMA (358.38), 50 EMA (359.58) and POC (359.40) all sit inside a 1.2-point band right under Cam S4 - an unusually dense support cluster. Note the 200 EMA at 378.84 caps the upside, so this is a scalp, not a swing.
5. GOOGL - Camarilla breakout, both ways
Long: entry 355.80 above Cam R4 355.58 . stop 350.40 . T1 363.47 (classic R2) . R:R 1.42. Short: entry 343.30 below Cam S4 343.50 . stop 347.60 . T1 334.52 (classic S3) . R:R 2.04.
Reasoning: GOOGL closed at 349.54 sandwiched between its 20 EMA (343.10) and 50 EMA (346.12) with POC at 346.66 - a genuinely two-sided level. An 11-point Friday range on 1.78x volume says the range wants to expand; trade the break, not the middle.
KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
All figures from the 18 Sep close.
AAPL - close 336.13
Cam: S4 332.85 . S3 334.49 . S1 335.58 || R1 336.68 . R3 337.77 . R4 339.41
Classic: S3 326.98 . S2 329.76 . S1 332.94 . P 335.72 . R1 338.90 . R2 341.68 . R3 344.86
EMAs: 20 325.02 . 50 317.69 . 200 290.20 . POC: 312.78 . ATR: 7.31
Prev day: H 338.49 . L 332.53 . 52-week: H 344.57 . L 236.65
MSFT - close 493.78
Cam: S4 489.63 . S3 491.70 . S1 493.09 || R1 494.47 . R3 495.86 . R4 497.93
Classic: S3 482.82 . S2 486.96 . S1 490.37 . P 494.51 . R1 497.92 . R2 502.06 . R3 505.47
EMAs: 20 493.29 . 50 471.10 . 200 443.41 . POC: 435.38 . ATR: 10.62
Prev day: H 498.65 . L 491.10 . 52-week: H 553.72 . L 349.20
NVDA - close 222.27
Cam: S4 219.69 . S3 220.98 . S1 221.84 || R1 222.70 . R3 223.56 . R4 224.86
Classic: S3 214.59 . S2 216.31 . S1 219.29 . P 221.01 . R1 223.99 . R2 225.71 . R3 228.69
EMAs: 20 218.50 . 50 215.13 . 200 199.47 . POC: 211.07 . ATR: 6.42
Prev day: H 222.73 . L 218.03 . 52-week: H 236.54 . L 164.27
AMZN - close 253.71
Cam: S4 251.76 . S3 252.73 . S1 253.38 || R1 254.04 . R3 254.69 . R4 255.66
Classic: S3 248.37 . S2 250.12 . S1 251.92 . P 253.67 . R1 255.47 . R2 257.22 . R3 259.02
EMAs: 20 255.06 . 50 255.02 . 200 243.09 . POC: 251.41 . ATR: 6.04
Prev day: H 255.43 . L 251.88 . 52-week: H 287.20 . L 196.00
META - close 665.75
Cam: S4 649.61 . S3 657.68 . S1 663.06 || R1 668.44 . R3 673.82 . R4 681.89
Classic: S3 624.97 . S2 642.88 . S1 654.32 . P 672.23 . R1 683.67 . R2 701.58 . R3 713.02
EMAs: 20 629.74 . 50 610.70 . 200 621.64 . POC: 605.38 . ATR: 21.24
Prev day: H 690.15 . L 660.80 . 52-week: H 790.80 . L 520.26
BEARISH WARNINGS
Death-cross structure (50 EMA below 200 EMA) - 14 of 40: META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, CEG, ORLY. META and ISRG are working out of it from above; the rest are not.
Below all three EMAs - 16 of 40: AVGO, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, LIN, INTU, BKNG, SNPS, CDNS, MELI, MAR, DASH, CEG, PYPL, ORLY.
Bearish MACD - 23 of 40. Widest and most negative: AMAT -21.59, COST -13.96, LRCX -9.91, LIN -8.53, BKNG -8.34, KLAC -6.23. Note AMAT, LRCX and KLAC rallied hard on Friday despite this - the histogram is closing, but the cross has not happened yet.
Sitting on 52-week lows: TMUS +2.5% above its low, ORLY +2.6%, COST +6.1%, SNPS +6.2%, CDNS +7.7%, NFLX +10.3%, CEG +11.4%, BKNG +11.8%. Eight names in the basket have essentially no support beneath them.
Oversold and still falling: BKNG RSI 27.4, LIN 32.4, CDNS 34.8. None has a momentum divergence yet - oversold in a downtrend is a warning, not an entry.
Distribution on volume: QCOM -5.82% on 3.82x average volume and NFLX -4.67% on 3.22x are the two clearest institutional-selling prints in the basket. QCOM still holds all three EMAs, so it is a warning rather than a break; NFLX has no such cushion.
Breadth: 20 up, 20 down on Friday with only 18 of 40 above their 60-day VWAP and 17 of 40 with a bullish MACD. The index is being carried by a small number of very large names. A stumble in AAPL, MSFT, NVDA or META would not be cushioned by the rest.
EVENTS CALENDAR
Economic data (week of 21-25 Sep): a light data week but a very heavy Fed-speaker week, with around ten central bank appearances scheduled. Tue 22 Sep: Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Wed 23 Sep: Current Account, flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, API crude stocks. Thu 24 Sep: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, EIA crude stocks. Fri 25 Sep: Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, final Q2 GDP, Existing Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Fed context: the FOMC hiked on 16 Sep - the first increase in three years - and signalled further tightening. Every speaker this week is a potential rate-path headline. The 10Y at 4.951% after closing last week at 5.00% is the single most important number for multiple expansion in this index.
Earnings in the basket: MU reports Wednesday 30 September after the close - the only confirmed report among the 40 in the near window. Given memory is the strongest sub-group in the index right now, that print is the main single-stock event risk on the horizon.
Geopolitical: Iranian President Pezeshkian leads a delegation to the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, and the Trump-Xi summit takes place in Washington this week covering tariffs, critical minerals and AI. Both are live headline risks in either direction, and both are currently being priced optimistically - oil has given back a large chunk of its risk premium and the VIX sits at 14.81.
SUMMARY
The index is within touching distance of 30,000 after Monday record-setting session across the Composite, carried by AI and communication services on falling oil and easing yields. Underneath that, the picture as of Friday was much less uniform: 16 of 40 components above all their EMAs, 16 below all of them, a third of the basket carrying a 50/200 death cross, and the entire consumer and internet group in a downtrend with not one name above its 60-day VWAP.
How to trade it: stay with the leaders - AAPL, AMD, MU, CRWD, FTNT, PANW, MRVL - and buy pullbacks into the 20 EMA rather than chasing extension after a plus 2% index day. Avoid the consumer and internet group on the long side. Watch 30,000 on the index: acceptance above it opens 30,350, while rejection there with the VIX this low would be the first real test of the advance.
Report: 21 September 2026 22:15 GMT . Component data: 18 September 2026 close . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.
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