NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Report - Thursday 13 August 2026
Data: Close 13 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 30,084.50 | Change: +341.90 (+1.15%) | Range: 29,757.62 - 30,168.05

Scanner data for all 40 components is current to the 13 Aug close. Both component blocks refreshed on time tonight.



MARKET OVERVIEW

The NASDAQ 100 closed at 30,084.50, up +341.90 points (+1.15%), its first close above the 30,000 handle. The index opened at 29,784.06, traded a 410-point range between 29,757.62 and 30,168.05, and closed in the upper third of that range - a constructive close, though it faded roughly 84 points off the session high.

Volume came in at 1.28bn shares, slightly below the 1.35bn average of the prior four sessions, so the breakout through 30,000 was not confirmed by an expansion in participation. That is the one blemish on an otherwise clean day.

Drivers: a softer inflation print took some pressure off the September rate path, and the market spent the session digesting PPI and jobless claims. The move was narrow rather than broad - software carried the index while networking hardware was hit. WDAY +17.78% and INTU +7.04% did the heavy lifting; CSCO -8.40% was the standout casualty after record revenue was overshadowed by gross margin compression (66.3% vs 68.4% a year ago) driven by AI hardware component costs, despite $4bn of hyperscaler AI orders in the quarter.

VIX held around 14.6 and effectively unchanged - complacency rather than conviction. With the index at a round-number breakout and volatility pinned this low, the risk of an air-pocket on any macro surprise is elevated.

Bias: Bullish above 30,003 (the daily pivot). The trend structure is unambiguous and 25 of the 40 components sit above all three EMAs. But this is a low-volume breakout into a round number with a fading close, so treat 30,000-30,003 as the line that decides whether Friday extends or retraces.



TREND STRUCTURE

EMA stack: Close 30,084.50 > EMA20 29,493.44 > EMA50 29,015.32 > EMA200 26,944.95.

That is a textbook bullish alignment - price above all three, and the EMAs stacked in the correct order with no compression. The index sits 2.0% above its 20 EMA, 3.7% above the 50 EMA, and 11.7% above the 200 EMA.

Structure: a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 29,123 low of 6 Aug marked the last swing low; the index has added roughly 960 points off that level in six sessions. The two-session pause at 29,621 and 29,525 (10-11 Aug) resolved higher, which is the behaviour of a market in control.

Phase: Stage 2 advance. The 11.7% extension above the 200 EMA is getting stretched but is not yet at the sort of level that historically forces a mean-reversion event. The nearest meaningful support on any pullback is the 20 EMA at 29,493 - which happens to sit right on top of the classic S2 pivot at 29,592 and the 29,525 swing low.



INDICATORS

RSI(14): 60.14 - in the strong-but-not-extended zone. The index made a new closing high today while RSI sits at 60, comfortably below the 70 overbought threshold. There is no bearish divergence on the index itself: price highs and momentum highs are advancing together. Room to run before momentum becomes a constraint.

MACD: MACD line +184.85 above signal +0.80, histogram +184.05 and expanding. A fresh bullish crossover with the histogram widening sharply - momentum is accelerating, not decaying. This is the single most bullish reading on the board.

Volume: 1.28bn vs a 1.35bn four-day average. Down-tick on a breakout day. Not damning, but it means the 30,000 break has not yet been validated by institutional participation. Watch Friday's volume on any hold above 30,003.

Internal breadth (the 40 components): 25 Bull, 10 Bear, 5 Mixed. 27 of 40 closed green. Advancers led decliners comfortably, but the size of the moves was concentrated - WDAY alone contributed more than the next three gainers combined.



KEY INDEX LEVELS

Resistance:
R1 30,249.16 - first classic pivot resistance, roughly 165 points above spot
R2 30,413.82 - pivot R2, aligns with the 30,400 round number
R3 30,659.59 - pivot R3, the stretch target if Friday trends

Support:
S1 29,838.73 - first classic pivot support, and the level that protects the 30k break
S2 29,592.96 - confluence with the 29,525 swing low and close to the 20 EMA
S3 29,428.30 - below this the 20 EMA (29,493) has already failed and the short-term trend is in question

Classic pivots (from today's H/L/C): S2 29,592.96 - S1 29,838.73 - P 30,003.39 - R1 30,249.16 - R2 30,413.82

Round numbers: 30,000 (now pivotal), 30,200, 30,500. The 30,000 level and the daily pivot at 30,003 are effectively the same line - that is where the day is decided.

Moving averages: EMA20 29,493.44 - EMA50 29,015.32 - EMA200 26,944.95.



SECTOR READ

Mega-cap Tech - split. MSFT, AMZN, NVDA and AVGO are Bull-above-all; AAPL, GOOGL and META are all below their 20 and 50 EMAs. The generals are not marching together. NVDA is the closest to a 52-week high at -4.8% and MSFT is overbought at RSI 71.8. AAPL below both short EMAs with a bearish MACD is the group's weak link.

Semiconductors - the laggard group. Only MU, LRCX, KLAC and MRVL are Bull-above-all, and three of those carry bearish MACD readings, meaning the EMA position is running ahead of momentum. AMD, TXN and AMAT all sit below their 20 EMA; QCOM is Bear-below-all with RSI 46.2 and price beneath all three EMAs. AMAT's -2.48% on 1.4x relative volume is the sector's clearest distribution signal. Semis are not confirming the index high.

Software / Cloud - the leadership group and the reason the index closed green. WDAY, INTU, ADBE, PANW, CRWD, FTNT and PYPL all advanced, several materially. PANW and CRWD are within 1% of 52-week highs with bullish MACD. The exceptions are CSCO (down 8.4%, now below its 20 EMA) and CDNS/SNPS, both of which remain structurally broken.

Consumer / Internet - improving. ABNB (RSI 76.6, 1.1% off its 52-week high), BKNG, DASH and ORLY are all Bull-above-all. NFLX jumped +5.43% and reclaimed its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains well below the 200. MAR is the group's weakest at Bear-below-20/50 with RSI 41.7.

Healthcare / Biotech - REGN is the strongest single name on the board by momentum: Bull-above-all, RSI 78.8, MACD firmly bullish, 1.8% from its 52-week high. ISRG is above its 20 EMA but still beneath the 200 - a recovery, not yet a trend.

Industrial / Other - the weakest corner. LIN is Bear-below-all with RSI 33.8, the lowest reading in the index. CEG is above its 20 and 50 EMAs but below the 200 and closed flat.

Net read: leadership has rotated decisively into software and away from semiconductors. That is a meaningful change in character. A NASDAQ 100 breakout that semis do not confirm has historically been the less durable kind.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40

Trend is a strict close-vs-EMA classification. All 40 were verified programmatically against close vs EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 305.26 +1.00% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 43.0 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -11.4% from 52w high - below POC
MSFT 496.88 +0.90% - Bull (above all) - RSI 71.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -10.3% from 52w high - above POC
GOOGL 346.36 +0.82% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 47.3 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -15.2% from 52w high - below POC
AMZN 265.13 -0.80% - Bull (above all) - RSI 55.4 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -7.7% from 52w high - above POC
META 594.97 +2.78% - Bear (below all) - RSI 49.2 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -25.3% from 52w high - below POC
TSLA 339.96 +3.80% - Mixed (>20 <50 <200) - RSI 47.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -31.8% from 52w high - below POC
NVDA 225.30 +0.54% - Bull (above all) - RSI 63.2 Strong - MACD Bullish - -4.8% from 52w high - above POC
AVGO 417.82 +0.43% - Bull (above all) - RSI 59.1 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -15.6% from 52w high - above POC

Semiconductors
AMD 483.01 +0.02% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 47.4 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -17.4% from 52w high - below POC
QCOM 164.79 +1.05% - Bear (below all) - RSI 46.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -36.6% from 52w high - below POC
TXN 273.43 -1.14% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 42.9 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -18.1% from 52w high - below POC
AMAT 534.54 -2.48% - Mixed (<20 >50 >200) - RSI 49.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -27.7% from 52w high - below POC
MU 949.83 +4.23% - Bull (above all) - RSI 54.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -24.3% from 52w high - below POC
LRCX 337.01 +3.34% - Bull (above all) - RSI 56.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -23.1% from 52w high - below POC
KLAC 209.37 +0.54% - Bull (above all) - RSI 52.0 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -31.9% from 52w high - below POC
ADI 381.17 -0.85% - Mixed (>20 <50 >200) - RSI 49.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -14.5% from 52w high - below POC
MRVL 222.18 +2.35% - Bull (above all) - RSI 53.7 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -32.6% from 52w high - below POC

Software / Cloud
ADBE 270.49 +4.54% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 63.6 Strong - MACD Bullish - -27.1% from 52w high - above POC
INTU 358.29 +7.04% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 72.0 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -50.3% from 52w high - above POC
CSCO 113.47 -8.40% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 44.1 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -13.0% from 52w high - below POC
PANW 396.00 +2.32% - Bull (above all) - RSI 72.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -0.7% from 52w high - above POC
SNPS 411.75 -0.14% - Mixed (>20 <50 <200) - RSI 51.4 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -34.5% from 52w high - below POC
CDNS 323.77 +0.20% - Bear (below all) - RSI 36.3 Weak - MACD Bearish - -22.3% from 52w high - below POC
CRWD 225.53 +1.69% - Bull (above all) - RSI 69.8 Strong - MACD Bullish - -0.6% from 52w high - above POC
FTNT 165.44 +2.86% - Bull (above all) - RSI 59.0 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -3.9% from 52w high - above POC
WDAY 206.45 +17.78% - Bull (above all) - RSI 75.2 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -17.4% from 52w high - above POC
PYPL 60.59 +2.35% - Bull (above all) - RSI 74.8 Overbought - MACD Bearish - -23.5% from 52w high - above POC

Consumer / Internet
COST 961.85 +1.29% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 55.9 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -12.3% from 52w high - above POC
NFLX 78.24 +5.43% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 62.0 Strong - MACD Bullish - -38.3% from 52w high - above POC
BKNG 213.34 +0.51% - Bull (above all) - RSI 70.9 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -8.0% from 52w high - above POC
MELI 1,828.25 +0.00% - Mixed (<20 >50 <200) - RSI 49.8 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -28.3% from 52w high - above POC
MAR 352.53 -0.58% - Bear (below 20/50) - RSI 41.7 Neutral - MACD Bearish - -14.2% from 52w high - below POC
ABNB 185.13 +2.80% - Bull (above all) - RSI 76.6 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -1.1% from 52w high - above POC
DASH 216.26 +1.77% - Bull (above all) - RSI 67.9 Strong - MACD Bullish - -24.3% from 52w high - above POC
ORLY 92.58 +0.58% - Bull (above all) - RSI 57.5 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -14.8% from 52w high - above POC
TMUS 183.38 +3.53% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 53.2 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -29.9% from 52w high - above POC

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG 401.27 +0.00% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 59.6 Neutral - MACD Bullish - -33.6% from 52w high - above POC
REGN 805.97 +1.00% - Bull (above all) - RSI 78.8 Overbought - MACD Bullish - -1.8% from 52w high - above POC

Industrial / Other
LIN 478.20 -0.26% - Bear (below all) - RSI 33.8 Weak - MACD Bearish - -12.8% from 52w high - below POC
CEG 278.64 -0.01% - Bull (above 20/50) - RSI 60.4 Strong - MACD Bullish - -32.5% from 52w high - above POC



Note: a handful of 52-week lows in the scanner feed look split-unadjusted (MU, MRVL, AMAT, CRWD, AMD), so distance-from-52w-low is unreliable for those names. Distance from 52-week high is used throughout instead.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. PANW - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 399.50 · Stop: 384.00 · T1: 422.00 · T2: 444.50 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.9
Closed 396.00, literally at its 52-week high of 398.88. Bull-above-all with EMA20 356.18, EMA50 323.28, EMA200 244.78 - a wide, correctly ordered stack. MACD 17.95 over signal 13.66. RSI 72.8 is overbought, which is the risk, but overbought RSI in a Stage 2 leader is a continuation signal more often than a reversal one. Stop sits under today's 387.35 low, roughly 1 ATR (15.03) from entry. Price is 28% above its 60-day POC at 308.21 - no volume shelf to fall back on, so respect the stop.

2. CRWD - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 227.50 · Stop: 219.90 · T1: 236.60 · T2: 245.80 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.4
Closed 225.53, 0.6% off the 226.90 52-week high, up +1.69%. Bull-above-all with a very wide stack (EMA200 at 146.74 - price is 54% above it). MACD 10.04 over 7.35 and expanding. RSI 69.8, just under overbought. Stop is tucked under today's 220.23 low, tighter than 1 ATR (9.12), which is what makes the R:R work. POC 182.53 is far below - same caveat as PANW.

3. REGN - Long on 52-week high breakout
Entry: 822.00 · Stop: 800.00 · T1: 853.00 · T2: 884.00 · R:R: 1.4 / 2.8
The strongest momentum reading in the index: RSI 78.8, MACD 38.80 over 32.13, Bull-above-all, 1.8% from the 821.11 high. Entry is a stop-buy through that high. Stop sits below Camarilla S3 at 800.11 and just over 1 ATR (20.62) away. The obvious risk is that RSI 78.8 is genuinely extended - size this smaller than the other two, and do not chase if it gaps through 830.

4. CDNS - Short on trend breakdown
Entry: 320.50 · Stop: 331.00 · T1: 307.60 · T2: 294.70 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.5
Bear-below-all: close 323.77 against EMA20 338.78, EMA50 349.13, EMA200 335.28. RSI 36.3 is the second-weakest in the index and MACD is negative at -9.25. Price is 13% below its 60-day POC of 366.22, so there is no volume support overhead holding it up - the acceptance has already moved lower. Entry triggers on a break of pivot S1 (320.49); stop sits above today's 328.30 high. Targets are 1 and 2 ATR (12.92).

5. LIN - Short on continued weakness
Entry: 475.50 · Stop: 484.50 · T1: 465.00 · T2: 454.00 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.4
The weakest RSI in the index at 33.8, Bear-below-all (EMA20 496.08, EMA50 504.11, EMA200 488.29), MACD -8.83. Closed -0.26% on a full 1.0x relative volume day - steady distribution rather than panic. POC 509.47 is 6.5% overhead. Entry is a break of today's 475.75 low; stop above today's 483.29 high. The one caution: RSI in the low 30s means a bounce is possible before continuation, so wait for the level to actually break.

Watch, no entry yet - WDAY. Up +17.78% on 3.08x relative volume, but it printed a 227.49 high and closed at 206.45 - a 21-point rejection off the highs on the biggest volume day of the year. That is a wide-range distribution candle, not a clean breakout. Let it settle for two or three sessions and look for a base above 200 before touching it.



INTRADAY SETUPS

1. NAS100 - Pivot hold long
Direction: Long · Entry: above 30,003.39 · Stop: 29,838.73 · T1: 30,249.16 · T2: 30,413.82 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.5
The daily pivot at 30,003.39 and the 30,000 round number are the same line. If the index opens above it and holds on a retest, the classic pivot ladder gives R1 then R2 as targets with S1 as the invalidation. Confluence: pivot + round number + yesterday's breakout level all stacked together.

2. NAS100 - Pivot failure short
Direction: Short · Entry: below 29,838.73 · Stop: 30,003.39 · T1: 29,592.96 · T2: 29,493.00 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.1
The mirror trade. A loss of S1 means the 30,000 break failed on the first attempt, which on a low-volume breakout is the higher-probability failure mode. T1 is pivot S2; T2 is the EMA20 at 29,493.44, which is where the first real buying should appear. Do not hold shorts through the 20 EMA.

3. NVDA - Camarilla range fade long
Direction: Long · Entry: 224.33 · Stop: 222.90 · T1: 225.95 · T2: 226.27 · R:R: 1.1 / 1.4
NVDA printed a very narrow 3.52-point range on 0.79x relative volume - textbook Camarilla range conditions. Cam: S4 223.36 · S3 224.33 · S1 224.98 || R1 225.62 · R3 226.27 · R4 227.24. Buy the S3 tag, stop under S4, target R2/R3. Bull-above-all with EMA20 212.37 backs the long side. If it opens outside the S4-R4 band, this setup is void - trade the breakout instead.

4. CSCO - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 112.15 · Stop: 113.60 · T1: 110.40 · T2: 109.16 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.1
Post-earnings gap-down of -8.40% on 2.77x relative volume - the highest conviction selling in the index. Now below its EMA20 (117.80) and, critically, below its 60-day POC of 117.97, so the volume shelf has flipped from support to resistance. Cam: S4 111.01 · S3 112.24 · S1 113.06 || R1 113.88 · R3 114.70 · R4 115.93. Entry on a break of cam S3; T2 is pivot S2. Gap-downs of this size often see a day-two continuation before any bounce.

5. AMAT - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 525.50 · Stop: 537.50 · T1: 511.39 · T2: 491.00 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.9
Closed -2.48% on 1.40x relative volume - the only semi with genuine distribution volume today, and it did it while the index broke 30,000. Close 534.54 sits fractionally below EMA20 (534.63) and below POC 555.96. Cam S3 is 525.75; entry on the break. Stop sits above cam R1 537.47. Targets are pivot S2 and S3. Wide ATR (35.59) means size this position small.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

NVDA - 225.30
Cam: S4 223.36 · S3 224.33 · S1 224.98 || R1 225.62 · R3 226.27 · R4 227.24
Classic: S3 220.08 · S2 221.89 · S1 223.60 · P 225.41 · R1 227.12 · R2 228.93 · R3 230.64
EMAs: 20 212.37 · 50 208.09 · 200 193.85 | POC 208.51 | Prev H/L 227.23 / 223.71 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - 496.88
Cam: S4 492.30 · S3 494.59 · S1 496.12 || R1 497.64 · R3 499.17 · R4 501.46
Classic: S3 484.48 · S2 488.75 · S1 492.81 · P 497.08 · R1 501.14 · R2 505.41 · R3 509.47
EMAs: 20 458.51 · 50 428.70 · 200 428.71 | POC 412.08 | Prev H/L 501.34 / 493.01 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - 305.26
Cam: S4 303.09 · S3 304.17 · S1 304.90 || R1 305.62 · R3 306.35 · R4 307.43
Classic: S3 298.92 · S2 300.49 · S1 302.87 · P 304.44 · R1 306.82 · R2 308.39 · R3 310.77
EMAs: 20 313.59 · 50 309.22 · 200 281.53 | POC 306.63 | Prev H/L 306.00 / 302.05 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78

AMZN - 265.13
Cam: S4 262.45 · S3 263.79 · S1 264.68 || R1 265.58 · R3 266.47 · R4 267.81
Classic: S3 258.50 · S2 261.60 · S1 263.37 · P 266.47 · R1 268.24 · R2 271.34 · R3 273.11
EMAs: 20 260.44 · 50 253.08 · 200 239.14 | POC 249.44 | Prev H/L 269.58 / 264.71 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00

WDAY - 206.45
Cam: S4 177.36 · S3 191.91 · S1 201.60 || R1 211.30 · R3 220.99 · R4 235.54
Classic: S3 125.31 · S2 149.96 · S1 178.20 · P 202.85 · R1 231.09 · R2 255.74 · R3 283.98
EMAs: 20 166.27 · 50 150.83 · 200 162.22 | POC 142.36 | Prev H/L 227.49 / 174.60 | 52w H/L 249.85 / 110.36



BEARISH WARNINGS

Four components are Bear-below-all - price beneath every EMA: LIN (RSI 33., CDNS (RSI 36.3), META (RSI 49.2) and QCOM (RSI 46.2). META is the notable one: a mega-cap 25.3% off its 52-week high with a flat-to-negative MACD, closing green +2.78% but still below all three EMAs. A bounce inside a downtrend until proven otherwise.

Six more sit below both the 20 and 50 EMA while holding the 200: AAPL, AMD, CSCO, GOOGL, MAR and TXN. AAPL and GOOGL together are a meaningful drag - two of the four largest weights are in short-term downtrends while the index prints a record close.

Overbought RSI cluster: REGN 78.8, ABNB 76.6, WDAY 75.2, PYPL 74.8, PANW 72.8, INTU 72.0, MSFT 71.8. Seven names above 70. None currently show a bearish price/momentum divergence - all made new price highs alongside new RSI highs - but this is a crowded top end and a broad-market pullback would hit these hardest.

Semis not confirming: MU, LRCX, KLAC and MRVL are all Bull-above-all yet carry negative MACD readings. That combination - price above the EMAs while momentum is still below zero - means the EMA position is a lagging artefact of an earlier move, not evidence of current strength. AMAT's high-volume decline reinforces the point.

Closest to 52-week lows: TMUS is 10.7% above its low of 165.66 despite gaining +3.53% today, and SNPS is 12.5% above its 366.00 low. Both are Mixed or Bearish on trend.

No death crosses were triggered today. Worth flagging the opposite: MSFT's EMA50 (428.70) and EMA200 (428.71) are effectively identical - a golden cross forming right now on the second-largest weight in the index.

Index-level caution: the 30,000 break came on below-average volume with the close 84 points off the high, and the VIX at 14.6 means there is essentially no fear priced in. Low-volume breakouts into round numbers with complacent volatility are the setup for a sharp reversal if Friday's data disappoints.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Friday 14 August 2026 (times UK):
13:30 - Retail Sales (Jul), est +0.3% MoM vs +0.2% prior
13:30 - Core Retail Sales ex-Autos (Jul), est +0.2% vs -0.2% prior
13:30 - Import Price Index, est +0.1% vs +0.3% prior
14:15 - Industrial Production, est +0.2% vs +0.1% prior
14:15 - Capacity Utilisation, est 76.3% vs 76.1% prior
15:00 - Business Inventories, est +0.2% vs +0.3% prior
15:00 - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug prelim), est 54.1 vs 55.2 prior
15:00 - UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations, est 4.2% unchanged

Retail sales is the session's swing factor. A strong print supports the 30,000 hold; a soft print combined with sentiment falling to 54.1 would put the consumer names - AMZN, COST, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY - under immediate pressure.

Component earnings: no NASDAQ 100 constituents are scheduled to report on Friday. CSCO closed out the meaningful tech reporting on Wednesday evening, and today's -8.40% reaction is the read-through the market is still digesting. The next earnings cluster is the following week.

Fed: no scheduled FOMC speakers on Friday. The market's rate expectations will move on the data alone.



Report: 13 August 2026 22:00 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 12 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,742.60 | Change: +217.13 (+0.74%) | Range: 29,715.88 - 29,881.50



MARKET OVERVIEW

The NAS100 closed at 29,742.60, up 217.13 points (+0.74%), after gapping open at 29,875.18 on the back of a soft July CPI print and then spending the entire session giving it back. The high of 29,881.50 was set early; the low of 29,715.88 came late. The close sits in the bottom 16% of the day's range - a green candle with a red character.

The 165.62-point range was the tightest of the last six sessions, narrower even than Monday's compression day. Volume was 1.40bn shares against a 252-day average near 1.32bn (1.06x), so there was slightly more participation than of late, but it was concentrated rather than broad.

Three drivers set the tape. First, July CPI came in benign: headline +0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, core +0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year - the softest core reading in five months. That removed the rate-hike tail risk that had been capping the index since the payrolls shock. Second, a violent rotation back into semiconductors, the exact reverse of Monday's move: the AI-infrastructure complex re-rated hard after CoreWeave and Super Micro results, with Temasek reported to have taken fresh stakes in SK Hynix and Samsung. MU +4.92%, LRCX +4.72%, AMAT +4.29%, KLAC +3.88%, NVDA +3.03%. Third, and this is the problem, the mega-caps went the other way. All five of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META and GOOGL closed red, averaging -1.68%.

Breadth tells the real story. 18 advancers, 22 decliners, and the average component change across all 40 names was -0.02% - flat. The index rose 0.74% on the strength of a handful of semiconductor weights while the median stock did nothing. That is a cap-weighted rally, not a market-wide one.

VIX: 14.54, down from a 15.28 open and well below Monday's 15.45. Risk pricing is as relaxed as it has been in weeks.

Bias: Constructive, but with less conviction than the headline number implies. Price remains 397 points above the 20 EMA with a fully stacked bullish alignment, and the index is only 3.31% below its 52-week high of 30,762.20. But the fade off the open, the flat equal-weighted breadth, and a mega-cap bloc that could not participate on the best macro news of the month are all things to note rather than ignore. The bulls got their catalyst and closed near the lows.



TREND STRUCTURE

EMA stack: Close 29,742.60 > 20 EMA 29,345.68 > 50 EMA 28,971.68 > 200 EMA 26,913.40. Textbook bullish alignment, fully stacked, all three rising.

Distance from the means: +396.92 points (+1.35%) above the 20 EMA, +770.92 (+2.66%) above the 50 EMA, +2,829.20 (+10.51%) above the 200 EMA. That is a healthy, not stretched, position - close enough to the 20 EMA that a two-day pullback would test it, far enough above the 200 EMA that the primary trend is not in question.

Structure: The last six closes read 29,487.79, 29,373.33, 29,722.30, 29,621.80, 29,525.48, 29,742.60. Today's is the highest of the six, so the sequence of higher lows off the 29,123 swing low remains intact and the index has made a fresh short-term closing high. What it has not done is take out 29,881.50 on a closing basis, and it has now failed twice in the 29,780-29,950 band.

Phase: Uptrend in consolidation. The index is coiling in a 750-point box between roughly 29,100 and 29,950, beneath the 30,000 handle, inside a larger uptrend. Nothing here is broken; nothing here is accelerating either.



MOMENTUM AND VOLUME

RSI(14): 57.08. Neutral-constructive. Comfortably above the 50 line, nowhere near overbought. RSI made a higher high alongside price today, so there is no negative divergence at the index level - the divergence, such as it is, lives in the internals rather than the oscillator.

MACD: +126.89 versus signal -45.22, histogram +172.11. This is the most bullish thing on the chart. MACD has crossed above its signal line while the signal line itself is still below zero, which is the early-stage configuration of a momentum turn rather than a late-stage one. Histogram expansion of +172 confirms the cross has force behind it.

Volume: 1.40bn shares, 1.06x the 252-day average and the highest of the last four sessions. Rising volume on an up day is normally confirmation. Here it needs an asterisk: the volume showed up in semiconductors and in the mega-caps that were being sold, not evenly across the tape. The Visible Range Volume Profile split reads 3.11bn up-volume against 3.63bn down-volume, so distribution still has the edge over the visible range.

Component relative volume: only five of the 40 names traded above 1.0x their own average - MELI 1.53x, CSCO 1.34x, ABNB 1.19x, LIN 1.05x and CEG 1.01x. Three of those five closed red. Institutional urgency remains conspicuously absent.



KEY INDEX LEVELS

Classic pivots for Thursday 13 August (from today's 29,881.50 / 29,715.88 / 29,742.60):
R3 30,009.73 · R2 29,945.61 · R1 29,844.11 · P 29,780.00 · S1 29,678.49 · S2 29,614.38 · S3 29,512.87

Resistance:
29,844 - pivot R1, and the shelf the index has stalled at twice this week.
29,881 - today's high. A close above this is the first genuinely bullish signal since the pullback began.
29,946 to 30,010 - pivot R2 and R3 bracketing the 30,000 round number. This is the magnet and the wall in the same place.

Support:
29,716 - today's low and the immediate line in the sand.
29,678 to 29,614 - pivot S1 and S2. Losing S2 puts the CPI gap fully back in the tin.
29,513 to 29,525 - pivot S3 stacked on Tuesday's close. Strong confluence support.
29,346 - the 20 EMA. The first structural test of the uptrend, 1.3% below spot.
28,972 - the 50 EMA. Would need a 2.6% drawdown to reach.

Round numbers: 30,000 above, 29,500 immediately below (and it doubles as pivot S3 confluence), 29,000 as the line where the trend argument actually changes.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40

Data: Wednesday 12 August close - the scanner is fully current today, index and components on the same session. Trend uses STRICT close-versus-EMA rules. All 40 classifications machine-verified against close vs EMA20/EMA50/EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Legend: Ticker · Close · Day% · Trend · RSI (zone) · MACD · % from 52w high · POC

MU 911.29 · +4.92% · Bull above all · 51.1 Bullish · Bullish · -27.4% · Below POC
LRCX 326.11 · +4.72% · Bull above all · 53.2 Bullish · Bullish · -25.6% · Below POC
AMAT 548.15 · +4.29% · Bull above all · 52.0 Bullish · Bullish · -25.9% · Below POC
KLAC 208.25 · +3.88% · Bull above all · 51.5 Bullish · Bullish · -32.2% · Below POC
NVDA 224.09 · +3.03% · Bull above all · 62.4 Strong · Bullish · -5.3% · Above POC
CSCO 123.88 · +2.84% · Bull above all · 63.0 Strong · Bullish · -5.0% · Above POC
MRVL 217.08 · +2.25% · Bull above all · 51.9 Bullish · Bullish · -34.2% · Below POC
AMD 482.93 · +1.82% · Bear below 20/50 · 47.4 Neutral · Bearish · -17.4% · Below POC
MAR 354.58 · +1.46% · Bear below 20/50 · 42.8 Neutral · Bearish · -13.7% · Below POC
PANW 387.01 · +0.84% · Bull above all · 70.4 Overbought · Bullish · -0.6% · Above POC
COST 949.58 · +0.56% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 50.6 Bullish · Bullish · -13.4% · Below POC
SNPS 412.32 · +0.34% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 51.7 Bullish · Bullish · -34.4% · Below POC
PYPL 59.20 · +0.34% · Bull above all · 71.2 Overbought · Bearish · -25.3% · Above POC
QCOM 163.07 · +0.24% · Bear below all · 44.8 Neutral · Bullish · -37.3% · Below POC
DASH 212.49 · +0.23% · Bull above all · 65.7 Strong · Bullish · -25.6% · Above POC
REGN 797.99 · +0.12% · Bull above all · 77.5 Overbought · Bullish · -2.8% · Above POC
CEG 278.68 · +0.11% · Bull above 20/50 · 60.4 Strong · Bullish · -32.5% · Above POC
ISRG 401.27 · +0.01% · Bull above 20/50 · 59.6 Bullish · Bullish · -33.6% · Above POC
AVGO 416.05 · -0.01% · Bull above all · 58.3 Bullish · Bullish · -15.9% · Above POC
CRWD 221.78 · -0.05% · Bull above all · 68.0 Strong · Bullish · -2.3% · Above POC
GOOGL 343.54 · -0.08% · Bear below 20/50 · 45.7 Neutral · Bullish · -15.9% · Below POC
ADI 384.43 · -0.23% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 · 51.5 Bullish · Bullish · -13.8% · Below POC
BKNG 212.26 · -0.29% · Bull above all · 70.2 Overbought · Bullish · -8.4% · Above POC
INTU 334.71 · -0.51% · Bull above 20/50 · 64.1 Strong · Bullish · -53.6% · Above POC
ORLY 92.05 · -0.56% · Bull above all · 56.2 Bullish · Bullish · -15.3% · Above POC
FTNT 160.84 · -0.65% · Bull above all · 54.0 Bullish · Bearish · -6.5% · Above POC
NFLX 74.21 · -0.78% · Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 · 51.3 Bullish · Bullish · -41.4% · Below POC
TMUS 177.13 · -0.82% · Bear below all · 46.5 Neutral · Bearish · -32.3% · Below POC
AAPL 302.25 · -0.87% · Bear below 20/50 · 40.2 Neutral · Bearish · -12.3% · Below POC
CDNS 323.13 · -1.34% · Bear below all · 35.8 Weak · Bearish · -22.5% · Below POC
TSLA 327.51 · -1.59% · Bear below all · 41.4 Neutral · Bullish · -34.3% · Below POC
TXN 276.59 · -1.65% · Bear below 20/50 · 44.7 Neutral · Bullish · -17.2% · Below POC
AMZN 267.28 · -1.83% · Bull above all · 57.1 Bullish · Bullish · -6.9% · Above POC
ADBE 258.75 · -1.88% · Bull above 20/50 · 58.4 Bullish · Bullish · -30.2% · Above POC
MSFT 492.43 · -2.26% · Bull above all · 70.8 Overbought · Bullish · -11.1% · Above POC
LIN 479.43 · -2.26% · Bear below all · 34.4 Weak · Bearish · -12.5% · Below POC
ABNB 180.10 · -2.64% · Bull above all · 74.2 Overbought · Bullish · -3.8% · Above POC
WDAY 175.29 · -3.30% · Bull above all · 63.5 Strong · Bullish · -29.8% · Above POC
META 578.85 · -3.38% · Bear below all · 43.9 Neutral · Bearish · -27.3% · Below POC
MELI 1,828.29 · -5.76% · Mixed: below 20, above 50, below 200 · 49.8 Neutral · Bearish · -28.3% · Above POC



SECTOR BREAKDOWN

Semiconductors (11 names) - average +2.11%
MU +4.9 · LRCX +4.7 · AMAT +4.3 · KLAC +3.9 · NVDA +3.0 · MRVL +2.2 · AMD +1.8 · QCOM +0.2 · AVGO -0.0 · ADI -0.2 · TXN -1.6
The engine room, and a complete reversal of Monday when all eleven closed red. Seven of the eleven now carry a full bull stack. The catch: the four biggest gainers (MU, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC) are all still below their 60-day POC and all still sit 25-32% below their 52-week highs. This is a recovery off a deep hole, not a fresh leg from strength. Their RSI readings cluster at 51-53, which is exactly what you would expect from a first bounce.

Mega-cap Tech (5 names) - average -1.68%
GOOGL -0.1 · AAPL -0.9 · AMZN -1.8 · MSFT -2.3 · META -3.4
Five for five red on the best inflation print in five months. AAPL and GOOGL are both below their 20 and 50 EMAs, META below all three. Only AMZN and MSFT hold full bull stacks, and MSFT did so while shedding 2.26% from an RSI of 70.8. This bloc is roughly 40% of the index by weight. It cannot stay a drag indefinitely without the index noticing.

Consumer/Internet (9 names) - average -1.04%
MAR +1.5 · COST +0.6 · DASH +0.2 · BKNG -0.3 · ORLY -0.6 · NFLX -0.8 · TSLA -1.6 · ABNB -2.6 · MELI -5.8
The weakest group. MELI was the single worst performer in the index on the highest relative volume (1.53x), losing its 20 EMA and flipping MACD bearish. ABNB gave back 2.64% from an RSI of 74.2 - a classic overbought unwind. TSLA remains below all three EMAs and 34.3% off its high.

Software/Cloud (9 names) - average -0.69%
PANW +0.8 · SNPS +0.3 · PYPL +0.3 · CRWD -0.1 · INTU -0.5 · FTNT -0.7 · CDNS -1.3 · ADBE -1.9 · WDAY -3.3
Monday's leaders took the day off while the money went back to silicon. Seven of nine still hold bull structure, and PANW closed at its 52-week high, so the group is pausing rather than breaking. CDNS is the exception and the warning: below all three EMAs with an RSI of 35.8.

Industrial/Other (4 names) - average -0.03%
CSCO +2.8 · CEG +0.1 · TMUS -0.8 · LIN -2.3
A group of two halves. CSCO ran 2.84% into its Q4 print on 1.34x volume; LIN was the second-worst chart in the index. TMUS sits below all three EMAs and is now the closest component to its 52-week low.

Healthcare/Biotech (2 names) - average +0.07%
REGN +0.1 · ISRG +0.0
Both flat, both holding bullish structure. REGN's RSI of 77.5 is the highest in the index and it is only 2.8% from its 52-week high - strong, but running hot.



TOP SWING SETUPS

A. NVDA - Long, trend continuation
Entry: 221.20 on a pullback (pivot S1 221.16 / Cam S4 221.40 confluence) · Stop: 216.20 · T1: 230.96 · T2: 236.50 · R:R: 1.95 to T1, 3.06 to T2
Close 224.09 (+3.03%) above all three EMAs (20 EMA 211.01, 50 EMA 207.39, 200 EMA 193.53), RSI 62.4, MACD +4.32 over signal +2.17, trading 15.5 points above its 60-day POC of 208.57 and only 5.3% below its 52-week high of 236.54. This is the cleanest structure in the semiconductor group because it is the only one of the big movers already trading above its POC - the others are still bouncing inside distribution. ATR 7.51, so the 5.00-point risk is under 0.7 ATR; keep the size honest. Momentum alternative: buy above the Cam R4 at 226.79 with the same targets and a stop at 220.00.

B. PANW - Long, 52-week-high breakout
Entry: 389.30 on a break of the high · Stop: 376.00 · T1: 405.13 · T2: 420.00 · R:R: 1.19 to T1, 2.31 to T2
Close 387.01 with today's high of 389.25 equal to the 52-week high. The EMA structure is the widest and cleanest in the entire index: 20 EMA 351.99, 50 EMA 320.31, 200 EMA 243.26, with the 60-day POC at 306.15 some 80 points below spot. MACD +16.46 over +12.59 and still expanding. The single caveat is an RSI of 70.4 - this is a breakout entry into an overbought reading, which works in a trending name but leaves no cushion if the market turns. Stop is deliberately under today's low rather than tight, because ATR is 15.27.

C. MU - Long, first pullback after the MACD cross
Entry: 895.30 (pivot S1 895.29) · Stop: 859.00 (pivot S3) · T1: 948.84 · T2: 1,000.00 · R:R: 1.47 to T1, 2.88 to T2
Close 911.29 (+4.92%), the strongest name in the index, now above all three EMAs (891.78 / 888.54 / 615.44) with MACD at -19.11 crossing above its -24.98 signal - a bullish cross from deeply negative territory, which is the highest-quality version of that signal. T1 is deliberately set at the 60-day POC of 948.84, which is also pivot R2 at 951.80: that band is where the supply from the last distribution phase lives, and it is the honest first objective. Risk warning: ATR is 76.05, or 8.3% of the share price. The 36.30-point stop is only half an ATR. Position size must be a fraction of what you would use elsewhere in this list.

D. LIN - Short, weakest chart in the index
Entry: 478.70 on a break of today's low · Stop: 486.20 · T1: 463.75 · T2: 452.00 · R:R: 1.99 to T1, 3.56 to T2
Close 479.43 (-2.26%) below all three EMAs (20 EMA 497.96, 50 EMA 505.17, 200 EMA 488.39) with the lowest RSI in the index at 34.4 and MACD at -8.30 under a -6.96 signal. The tell is relative volume of 1.05x - one of only five names in the whole scan to trade above average, and it did so on a 2.26% decline. The 60-day POC sits at 509.96, over 30 points overhead, so every bounce runs into supply. Stop sits just above the Cam R4 at 485.80 and above today's 490.34 high on a closing basis only.

E. META - Short, broken structure into a weak close
Entry: 578.20 on a break of today's low · Stop: 586.20 (above Cam R3 586.08) · T1: 560.90 · T2: 543.58 · R:R: 2.16 to T1, 4.33 to T2
Close 578.85 (-3.38%) at the very bottom of a 578.21-604.50 range - it closed 0.64 off the low of a 26-point day. Below all three EMAs (595.54 / 602.40 / 626.26), MACD -6.44 under -5.66, 27.3% below its 52-week high, and trading 22 points under a 60-day POC of 600.99. This was the worst mega-cap on a day the macro news was good, which is the definition of relative weakness. The 8.00-point stop is tight against a 22.73 ATR, so expect to be stopped out on noise more often than not - either widen to 593.50 (above Cam R4 593.31, R:R still 1.16 / 2.32) or accept a low hit rate for a high payoff.



INTRADAY SETUPS - THURSDAY 13 AUGUST

1. NVDA - Camarilla breakout long
Direction: Long · Entry: 226.90 (above Cam R4 226.79) · Stop: 223.50 · T1: 230.96 · T2: 233.70 · R:R: 1.19 / 2.00
Cam R4 breakouts are the trend-day expression of the Camarilla set, and NVDA is the one name in the index with both the momentum and the structure to deliver one. Stop sits below Cam S1 at 223.64. Invalid if the index opens below 29,678 (pivot S1).

2. AAPL - Camarilla range short (mean reversion)
Direction: Short · Entry: 303.65 (Cam R3) · Stop: 305.30 (above Cam R4 305.05) · T1: 300.85 (Cam S3) · T2: 299.45 (Cam S4) · R:R: 1.70 / 2.55
The textbook Camarilla reversion trade: sell the R3 touch, cover at S3, when the underlying trend agrees. It does here - AAPL is below its 20 EMA (314.47) and 50 EMA (309.38), RSI 40.2, MACD -1.73 under a +1.61 signal, and it closed below its 60-day POC of 306.57. The whole R1-to-R4 band sits between 302.72 and 305.05, so this is a tight 1.65-point risk on a 8.55 ATR name. Do not chase if price opens above 305.

3. MELI - Camarilla breakdown short
Direction: Short · Entry: 1,826.50 (below today's 1,827.00 low) · Stop: 1,855.90 (above Cam R3 1,855.79) · T1: 1,794.53 (pivot S1) · T2: 1,773.29 (Cam S4) · R:R: 1.09 / 1.81
The heaviest distribution in the scan: -5.76% on 1.53x relative volume, a 100-point range, a close 1.29 off the low, loss of the 20 EMA at 1,844.70 and a fresh bearish MACD cross (25.91 under a 32.38 signal). It remains above its POC of 1,733.27, which is why T2 stops at Cam S4 rather than reaching for it. ATR 67.17 - this is a wide, fast name and the 29.40-point stop is under half an ATR.

4. AMAT - Camarilla breakout long, day-trade only
Direction: Long · Entry: 553.10 (above Cam R4 553.02) · Stop: 547.30 (below Cam S1 547.34) · T1: 561.82 (pivot R3) · T2: 566.00 · R:R: 1.50 / 2.22
AMAT reclaimed all three EMAs today on a 4.29% move and closed 6.07 under its 60-day POC of 554.22 - the Cam R4 breakout and the POC reclaim are effectively the same trade. Hard rule: flat before 21:00 UK. AMAT reports fiscal Q3 after Thursday's close and carries a 35.87 ATR (6.5% of price) before any earnings gap is added. Holding this overnight is not a technical decision.

5. CSCO - no setup, levels void
CSCO reported Q4 FY26 after Wednesday's close. Every pivot and Camarilla level printed above (P 123.53, Cam R4 125.08, Cam S4 122.68) was calculated from a pre-earnings session and is meaningless until Thursday's gap resolves. It ran 2.84% into the print on 1.34x relative volume and closed at 123.88, right beneath the 124.62 level analysts had flagged as resistance. Let it settle, then re-derive levels from Thursday's range. No position.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 BY WEIGHT

NVDA - Close 224.09
Cam: S4 221.40 · S3 222.74 · S1 223.64 || R1 224.54 · R3 225.44 · R4 226.79
Classic: S3 216.26 · S2 218.23 · S1 221.16 · P 223.13 · R1 226.06 · R2 228.03 · R3 230.96
EMAs: 20 211.01 · 50 207.39 · 200 193.53 | POC 208.57 | Prev H/L 225.10 / 220.20 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - Close 492.43
Cam: S4 486.94 · S3 489.69 · S1 491.52 || R1 493.34 · R3 495.17 · R4 497.92
Classic: S3 478.82 · S2 485.17 · S1 488.80 · P 495.15 · R1 498.78 · R2 505.13 · R3 508.76
EMAs: 20 454.47 · 50 425.91 · 200 428.02 | POC 411.44 | Prev H/L 501.50 / 491.52 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - Close 302.25
Cam: S4 299.45 · S3 300.85 · S1 301.78 || R1 302.72 · R3 303.65 · R4 305.05
Classic: S3 294.90 · S2 297.74 · S1 299.99 · P 302.83 · R1 305.08 · R2 307.92 · R3 310.17
EMAs: 20 314.47 · 50 309.38 · 200 281.29 | POC 306.57 | Prev H/L 305.66 / 300.57 | 52w H/L 344.57 / 223.78

AMZN - Close 267.28
Cam: S4 263.78 · S3 265.53 · S1 266.70 || R1 267.86 · R3 269.03 · R4 270.78
Classic: S3 258.74 · S2 262.92 · S1 265.10 · P 269.28 · R1 271.46 · R2 275.64 · R3 277.82
EMAs: 20 259.95 · 50 252.59 · 200 238.88 | POC 249.44 | Prev H/L 273.46 / 267.10 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00

GOOGL - Close 343.54
Cam: S4 340.46 · S3 342.00 · S1 343.03 || R1 344.05 · R3 345.08 · R4 346.62
Classic: S3 335.19 · S2 338.03 · S1 340.79 · P 343.63 · R1 346.39 · R2 349.23 · R3 351.99
EMAs: 20 351.19 · 50 353.25 · 200 323.14 | POC 357.98 | Prev H/L 346.48 / 340.88 | 52w H/L 408.61 / 196.60



BEARISH WARNINGS

1. The equal-weight divergence. The index gained 0.74% while the average of its 40 largest components changed -0.02%, with 18 advancers against 22 decliners. Every point of today's gain came from cap-weighted concentration. Rallies that narrow this far tend to need the leaders to keep delivering, and the leaders here are a semiconductor group that is still 25-32% below its own highs.

2. The mega-cap bloc failed on good news. AAPL -0.87%, MSFT -2.26%, AMZN -1.83%, META -3.38%, GOOGL -0.08% on the softest core CPI in five months. AAPL and GOOGL both closed below their 20 and 50 EMAs and below their POCs. When the largest weights cannot rally on their preferred catalyst, the catalyst is already priced.

3. Six names at or above RSI 70. REGN 77.5, ABNB 74.2, PYPL 71.2, MSFT 70.8, PANW 70.4, BKNG 70.2. Two of them - MSFT (-2.26%) and ABNB (-2.64%) - fell hard today, which is the classic first crack in an overbought leader. PYPL is the sharpest warning in the group: RSI 71.2 with a bearish MACD. That is momentum leaving while price is still elevated.

4. Ten of 40 names carry a bearish MACD: AAPL, META, AMD, TMUS, LIN, CDNS, MELI, MAR, FTNT, PYPL. Note that AMD (+1.82%) and MAR (+1.46%) both rose today on bearish momentum readings and both remain below their 20 and 50 EMAs - bounces in downtrends until proven otherwise.

5. Long-term death-cross structure in 16 of 40 names. The 50 EMA sits below the 200 EMA in MSFT, META, TSLA, COST, NFLX, ADBE, TMUS, ISRG, INTU, SNPS, MELI, DASH, CEG, WDAY, PYPL and ORLY. Most of these trade above both averages, so this is the residue of an earlier drawdown rather than a fresh breakdown - but it means the medium-term average is still falling underneath a rising price in 40% of the index. That structure resolves one way or the other; it does not persist.

6. Weakest charts: LIN (RSI 34.4, below all three EMAs, bearish MACD, above-average volume on the decline), CDNS (RSI 35.8, below all three EMAs, MACD -9.02), META (below all three EMAs, -27.3% from high, closed on its low), TMUS and QCOM (both below all three EMAs, QCOM 37.3% off its high).

7. Proximity to 52-week lows. No component is within 5% of its low, which is genuinely reassuring. The nearest are TMUS (+6.9% above its low), TSLA (+10.1%), META (+11.3%), ORLY (+11.5%) and COST (+12.5%). There is no distress in the index - but TMUS has now been the closest name to its low for three sessions running.

8. Distribution in the volume profile. The visible-range profile shows 3.11bn up-volume against 3.63bn down-volume. Over the range that matters, more shares have changed hands on down bars than up bars.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Already in the tape - Wednesday 12 August after the close
CSCO Q4 FY26. Reported revenue of 17.3bn, GAAP net income 3.9bn (0.97 per share), non-GAAP 4.9bn (1.22 per share). CSCO went into the print up 60% year-to-date and closed at 123.88, just under the widely watched 124.62 resistance. As an AI-networking bellwether the read-through to the wider infrastructure complex is real, and Thursday's gap will set the tone for CEG, AVGO and the networking chain before the opening bell.

Thursday 13 August
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US PPI, July. The producer-side half of the inflation picture, arriving the day after a benign CPI. A hot PPI is the one clean way to undo Wednesday's relief rally, because it reopens the margin question that CPI just closed.
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - Weekly initial jobless claims. Carrying more weight than usual after the -23,000 payrolls shock; the Fed is openly split and claims is the highest-frequency read available.
21:30 UK (16:30 ET) - AMAT fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call. Consensus near 3.36 EPS on revenue around 9bn, against company guidance of roughly 8.95bn. AMAT has just put in a two-day recovery of over 7% and reclaimed all three EMAs, so it enters the print with far more to lose than it had on Monday. ATR 35.87 (6.5% of price) before any gap. This is the highest-variance component event of the week.

Friday 14 August
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US retail sales, July. The third leg of the data window. With the consumer names (MELI, ABNB, TSLA, MAR) already the weakest sector group in the index, a soft print lands on a group with no cushion.

The following week
Wednesday 19 August - FOMC minutes from the 28-29 July meeting, the one decided on a 9-3 vote with the first three-way, same-direction dissent since September 2016. Given how divided that committee was, the minutes carry more information than usual.

Component earnings within the 40
CSCO (done, 12 Aug) and AMAT (13 Aug) are the only two of the 40 reporting in this window. The remainder of the index has cleared its July reporting season, which is precisely why macro is driving the tape.



SUMMARY

The NASDAQ 100 got the print it wanted and could not hold the gap. Headline core CPI at 2.5% year-on-year removed the hike risk that had capped the index since the payrolls shock, the index gapped to 29,875, and it closed at 29,742 in the bottom sixth of the day's range on the tightest range of the week.

Structurally the picture is still good. Full bullish EMA stack with all three averages rising, price 1.35% above the 20 EMA and 10.5% above the 200 EMA, RSI at a neutral-constructive 57.1, and a MACD cross with a +172 histogram while the signal line is still below zero - that last one is the most genuinely bullish reading on the chart. The index is only 3.31% below its 52-week high. Nothing in the trend architecture argues for a top.

The problem is what happened underneath. Breadth was 18 up, 22 down and the average component finished flat, so the entire index gain came from cap-weighted semiconductor strength. That strength is real but shallow: MU, LRCX, AMAT and KLAC all rallied 4-5% and all four are still trading below their own 60-day POCs with RSI clustered in the low fifties. They are bouncing inside distribution, not breaking out of it. Meanwhile the five largest weights in the index all closed red on the best macro news of the month, and six leaders are now sitting at or above RSI 70 with two of them (MSFT, ABNB) already turning down.

That combination - improving momentum, deteriorating participation - is a market that grinds rather than accelerates. The levels resolve it. A close above 29,881 takes out today's rejection and puts the 29,946-30,010 band, and with it the 30,000 handle, immediately in play. A loss of 29,614 (pivot S2) hands back the CPI gap entirely and points at the 29,513-29,525 confluence, with the 20 EMA at 29,346 as the first real structural test.

Between those two lines the index has spent all week doing nothing, and Thursday brings PPI, claims and AMAT. Trade the components, respect the event risk, and let the index tell you which way it wants to go before sizing up.



Report: 12 August 2026 22:10 GMT · Index data 12 August close · Component scanner data 12 August close · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - TUESDAY 11 AUGUST 2026
Index data: Close 11 Aug | NAS100: 29,503.40 | Change: -118.41 (-0.40%) | Range: 29,427.61 - 29,705.80
COMPONENT DATA NOTE: the 40-stock scanner feed last published on Monday 10 August close. Every stock price, EMA, RSI, MACD, pivot and Camarilla level in the component sections below is 10 August data and is one session stale. Index levels and index pivots are current to the 11 August close.



MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,503.40, down 118.41 points (-0.40%) from Monday's 29,621.80. The session traded a tight 278-point band between 29,427.61 and 29,705.80 - roughly 0.94% of index value, a compressed range that says positioning, not conviction.

Drivers were external rather than technical. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensified, pushing crude around and keeping a lid on risk appetite. Communication services was the weakest S&P sector, off more than 2%, with Alphabet -3.8% and AppLovin down almost 6%. Nvidia had firmed +1.5% pre-market on reports it raised 500 billion dollars privately with banks for AI infrastructure buildout, while Intel extended its slide as its stock sale was raised by 5 billion to 20 billion.

The broad tape was equally soft: S&P 500 -0.3% to 7,728.20, Dow -0.3% to 53,791.85, Nasdaq Composite -0.6% to 26,445.45. VIX remains subdued in the mid-teens (15.46 prior close, 10 Aug).

Bias: Constructive but on hold. The primary uptrend is fully intact and unbroken. Price is simply refusing to commit ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. This is a coiled market, not a topping one - but the coil resolves on a data release, which means the first move may not be the real one.



TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (NAS100 daily): Close 29,503.40 above all three - EMA20 29,246.45 . EMA50 28,940.21 . EMA200 26,884.97.

The stack is in perfect bullish alignment: price > EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200. Distance from each: +0.88% above the 20, +1.95% above the 50, +9.74% above the 200. That is a healthy, non-extended position - close enough to the 20 that a pullback has support underneath, far enough above the 200 that no structural damage is remotely in play.

Structure: higher highs and higher lows intact. Recent swing sequence: 29,487.79 - 29,373.33 - 29,722.30 - 29,621.80 - 29,503.40. Three of the last five sessions closed red, but the pullback has been shallow and has held above the 20 EMA throughout - textbook orderly consolidation rather than distribution.

Phase: Stage 2 advance in a pause. The index sits 4.09% below its swing high of 30,762.20. A 4% drawdown inside a trend that is nearly 10% above its 200 EMA is a rest, not a reversal. The bull case stays valid while 28,940 (EMA50) holds on a closing basis.



MOMENTUM AND INDICATORS
RSI(14): 55.05 - dead centre of the bullish half. Not overbought, not weak, plenty of room in both directions. No bearish divergence: the index made a lower high into a lower RSI reading, which is confirmation rather than divergence. The tell will be whether RSI holds the 50 line on any CPI-driven flush - losing 50 would be the first genuine warning of trend deterioration.

MACD: 85.88, Signal -88.24, Histogram +174.12 - freshly bullish. The MACD line has crossed decisively above signal and the histogram is strongly positive, meaning momentum accelerated into this consolidation rather than draining out of it. This is the single most constructive reading on the board and it materially favours the upside resolution.

Volume: 1.21bn on the session against a 1.31bn 300-day average - roughly 8% below normal. Volume has declined for four consecutive sessions (1.51bn, 1.42bn, 1.36bn, 1.27bn, 1.21bn). Falling volume into a shallow pullback is constructive: sellers are not pressing. It also means the CPI reaction will land into thin books, so expect the initial move to overshoot.

Breadth (40-stock sample, 10 Aug): 21 advancing, 18 declining, 1 flat. 28 of 40 above their 200 EMA, 32 of 40 with bullish MACD, 21 of 40 trading above their 60-day VWAP/POC. Breadth is positive but not broad - the index is being carried by software and mega-cap while semiconductors bleed.



KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance:
R1 29,663.60 - classic pivot R1 and just under today's 29,705.80 high. First real test.
R2 29,823.79 - pivot R2 and the 29,750/29,800 supply shelf from last week's failed push.
R3 29,941.79 - pivot R3 into the psychological 30,000 handle. Expect friction.

Support:
S1 29,385.41 - classic pivot S1, immediately below today's 29,427.61 low.
S2 29,267.41 - pivot S2 sitting almost exactly on the EMA20 at 29,246.45. This is the key confluence level.
S3 29,107.22 - pivot S3. Below here the EMA50 at 28,940 becomes the line in the sand.

Classic pivots for Wednesday 12 August (from 11 Aug H/L/C):
S3 29,107.22 . S2 29,267.41 . S1 29,385.41 . P 29,545.60 . R1 29,663.60 . R2 29,823.79 . R3 29,941.79

Round numbers: 29,500 (price is sitting on it), 29,000, 30,000. The 30,000 handle is the magnet if CPI comes in soft.



COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Data: Monday 10 August close. Trend uses STRICT close-versus-EMA rules. All 40 classifications machine-verified against close vs EMA20/EMA50/EMA200 - zero mismatches.

Legend: Ticker . Close . Day% . Trend . RSI (zone) . MACD . % from 52w high . POC

PANW 385.04 . +5.82% . Bull above all . 70.3 Overbought . Bullish . -0.0% . Above POC
CRWD 225.16 . +5.01% . Bull above all . 71.3 Overbought . Bullish . -0.8% . Above POC
ISRG 393.38 . +3.85% . Bull above 20/50 . 56.9 Bullish . Bullish . -34.9% . Above POC
ABNB 184.70 . +3.72% . Bull above all . 81.5 Overbought . Bullish . -0.7% . Above POC
REGN 808.05 . +3.02% . Bull above all . 83.2 Overbought . Bullish . -1.6% . Above POC
ADBE 272.96 . +2.92% . Bull above all . 69.0 Strong . Bullish . -26.4% . Above POC
NFLX 76.29 . +2.90% . Bull above 20/50 . 58.9 Bullish . Bullish . -39.8% . Below POC
FTNT 164.21 . +2.86% . Bull above all . 58.6 Bullish . Bullish . -4.6% . Above POC
INTU 334.43 . +2.82% . Bull above 20/50 . 64.6 Strong . Bullish . -56.1% . Above POC
WDAY 184.19 . +2.53% . Bull above all . 72.3 Overbought . Bullish . -26.3% . Above POC
AMZN 278.09 . +1.32% . Bull above all . 65.9 Strong . Bullish . -3.2% . Above POC
MSFT 506.06 . +1.21% . Bull above all . 79.1 Overbought . Bullish . -8.6% . Above POC
CSCO 122.57 . +0.94% . Bull above all . 62.9 Strong . Bullish . -6.0% . Above POC
GOOGL 357.52 . +0.91% . Bull above all . 52.2 Bullish . Bullish . -12.5% . Below POC
TSLA 330.88 . +0.70% . Bear below all . 42.5 Neutral . Bullish . -33.7% . Below POC
TMUS 178.20 . +0.57% . Bear below all . 47.6 Neutral . Bearish . -31.9% . Below POC
COST 952.75 . +0.52% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 . 52.0 Bullish . Bullish . -13.1% . Below POC
LIN 492.46 . +0.51% . Bear below 20/50 . 41.5 Neutral . Bearish . -10.2% . Below POC
META 594.92 . +0.48% . Bear below all . 48.6 Neutral . Bearish . -25.3% . Below POC
MELI 1,824.34 . +0.20% . Mixed: below 20, above 50, below 200 . 50.4 Bullish . Bearish . -28.4% . Above POC
CEG 270.43 . +0.20% . Bull above 20/50 . 55.2 Bullish . Bullish . -34.5% . Above POC
PYPL 59.07 . 0.00% . Bull above all . 71.0 Overbought . Bearish . -25.4% . Above POC
BKNG 212.88 . -0.72% . Bull above all . 71.1 Overbought . Bullish . -8.2% . Above POC
SNPS 411.68 . -1.04% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, below 200 . 51.4 Bullish . Bullish . -34.5% . Below POC
AVGO 422.40 . -1.25% . Bull above all . 61.8 Strong . Bullish . -14.7% . Above POC
ORLY 92.23 . -1.39% . Bull above all . 57.1 Bullish . Bullish . -15.2% . Above POC
ADI 383.93 . -1.54% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 . 51.3 Bullish . Bullish . -13.9% . Below POC
MAR 348.44 . -1.55% . Bear below 20/50 . 38.0 Weak . Bearish . -15.2% . Below POC
LRCX 306.40 . -1.59% . Bear below 20/50 . 47.4 Neutral . Bullish . -30.1% . Below POC
AAPL 308.26 . -1.62% . Bear below 20/50 . 44.1 Neutral . Bearish . -10.5% . Above POC
MU 861.00 . -1.89% . Bear below 20/50 . 46.3 Neutral . Bullish . -31.4% . Below POC
TXN 280.44 . -1.97% . Bear below 20/50 . 46.8 Neutral . Bullish . -16.0% . Below POC
CDNS 331.91 . -2.16% . Bear below all . 40.0 Neutral . Bullish . -20.3% . Below POC
KLAC 192.74 . -2.71% . Bear below 20/50 . 43.7 Neutral . Bullish . -37.3% . Below POC
AMD 469.56 . -2.86% . Bear below 20/50 . 44.7 Neutral . Bearish . -19.7% . Below POC
NVDA 217.54 . -2.87% . Bull above all . 58.1 Bullish . Bullish . -8.0% . Above POC
DASH 209.86 . -2.96% . Bull above all . 64.1 Strong . Bullish . -26.5% . Above POC
AMAT 522.12 . -3.16% . Bear below 20/50 . 47.4 Neutral . Bullish . -29.4% . Below POC
QCOM 162.17 . -3.39% . Bear below all . 44.0 Neutral . Bullish . -37.6% . Below POC
MRVL 208.61 . -4.62% . Mixed: above 20, below 50, above 200 . 48.8 Neutral . Bullish . -36.8% . Below POC

Trend tally: Bull above all 17 . Bull above 20/50 4 . Mixed 5 . Bear below 20/50 9 . Bear below all 5



SECTOR GROUPING

Software and Cloud - LEADING
ADBE, INTU, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY. Average day move +2.34%, 6 of 8 bullish, average RSI 62.2, 6 of 8 above POC. This is where the money is going. Security in particular is on fire - PANW +5.82% into a fresh 52-week high, CRWD +5.01% within 0.8% of its own, FTNT +2.86%. Only the EDA pair (SNPS, CDNS) is dragging.

Healthcare and Biotech - STRONGEST BY AVERAGE
REGN, ISRG. Average +3.44%, both bullish, average RSI 70.0, both above POC. Small sample, but REGN at RSI 83.2 with a +10.08 MACD histogram is the single strongest momentum reading in the entire index. ISRG has reclaimed its 20 and 50 EMAs but remains 34.9% below its 52-week high - early-stage recovery.

Mega-cap Tech - MIXED, HOLDING
AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL. Average +0.46%, 3 of 5 core names bullish, average RSI 58.0. MSFT (RSI 79.1, +10.49 histogram) and AMZN (3.2% off its high) are doing the heavy lifting. AAPL has lost its 20 and 50 EMAs with a bearish MACD - watch it. META is below all three EMAs with its 50 under its 200: the weakest mega-cap on the board.

Consumer and Internet - SPLIT
TSLA, COST, NFLX, BKNG, MELI, MAR, ABNB, DASH, ORLY. Average +0.16%, 5 of 9 bullish, average RSI 57.3. Travel is the fault line: ABNB (+3.72%, RSI 81.5, relative volume 1.93) and BKNG (RSI 71.1, above all EMAs) are strong, while MAR is the weakest RSI in the whole index at 38.0 and below its 20 and 50. TSLA remains below all three EMAs.

Semiconductors - LAGGING BADLY
NVDA, AVGO, AMD, QCOM, TXN, AMAT, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, MRVL. Average -2.53%, only 2 of 11 bullish, average RSI 49.1, and just 2 of 11 above their POC. This is the story of the tape. Nine of the eleven are below their 20 and 50 EMAs. NVDA and AVGO are the sole survivors holding full bull stacks. MRVL -4.62%, QCOM -3.39%, AMAT -3.16% led the damage. Until semis stabilise, index upside stays capped.

Industrial and Other - QUIET
TMUS, LIN, CSCO, CEG, PYPL. Average +0.44%, 3 of 5 bullish, average RSI 55.6. CSCO is the standout with a full bull stack, RSI 62.9 and relative volume above 1.0 into its earnings on Wednesday. TMUS and LIN are both below their 20 and 50 with bearish MACD.



TOP SWING SETUPS
Levels derived from 10 August close. Re-check against live price before acting.

1. PANW - LONG (52-week high breakout)
Closed 385.04, fractionally under its 52-week high of 385.17, after a +5.82% surge. Full bull stack (EMA20 344.56, EMA50 314.88, EMA200 240.39), RSI 70.3, MACD histogram +3.04, and trading 28% above its 301.12 POC. Nothing overhead but blue sky.
Entry: 385.20 on a break . Stop: 376.00 . T1: 399.94 . T2: 414.71 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 3.2 to T2
Confluence: 52-week high breakout + pivot R2/R3 targets + strongest sector (software/security) + ATR 15.77 gives the move room.

2. CRWD - LONG (breakout continuation)
Closed 225.16, +5.01%, sitting 0.8% below its 226.90 high. Bull stack (EMA20 198.90, EMA50 184.02, EMA200 144.42), RSI 71.3, relative volume 0.98, and a huge 25% premium to its 179.21 POC.
Entry: 226.95 . Stop: 219.30 . T1: 234.55 . T2: 242.21 . R:R: 1.0 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Confluence: Same-day sector move as PANW - two security names breaking together is a genuine group thrust, not a single-stock story.

3. ABNB - LONG (volume breakout)
Closed 184.70, +3.72%, versus a 185.99 high, on relative volume 1.93 - the highest conviction volume reading in the entire 40-stock scan. Bull stack with the EMA20 at 154.20 far below.
Entry: 186.05 . Stop: 179.99 . T1: 191.27 . T2: 196.54 . R:R: 0.9 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Caution: RSI 81.5 is deeply overbought and price is 20% above its own 20 EMA. The volume justifies attention; the extension justifies a small size and a tight stop. Take T1 in full if reached quickly.

4. REGN - LONG on pullback (do not chase)
The strongest momentum in the index - RSI 83.2, MACD histogram +10.08, relative volume 1.10, closed 808.05 against an 821.11 high, having just crossed its 200 EMA (692.91) from below. But at 24% above its 650.59 POC it is far too extended to buy here.
Entry: 790.00 on a retrace . Stop: 771.00 . T1: 821.11 . T2: 852.74 . R:R: 1.6 to T1, 3.3 to T2
Confluence: Entry zone sits on Camarilla S4 789.76 and pivot S1 786.22 - a genuine level cluster, not an arbitrary number.

5. QCOM - SHORT (semiconductor weakness)
Closed 162.17, -3.39%, below all three EMAs (20 at 166.78, 50 at 177.61, 200 at 171.68), RSI 44.0, and a full 19% below its 200.82 POC. Sits 37.6% under its 52-week high with the 50 EMA now beneath the 200 - a completed death cross.
Entry: 161.95 on a break of the 162.08 low . Stop: 165.90 . T1: 157.58 . T2: 153.09 . R:R: 1.1 to T1, 2.2 to T2
Confluence: Weakest sector in the index + below-all-EMAs structure + deep POC discount. The clean short expression of the semi drag.



INTRADAY SETUPS - NAS100 INDEX, WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST
Built from the 11 August close, so these are current. Range was a narrow 278.19 points, which compresses the Camarilla bands - expect a wider CPI-day range and size accordingly.

A. Camarilla range fade - SHORT from R3 (pre-CPI window only)
Valid 08:00 to 13:25 UK, before the CPI release. Narrow-range days favour reversion until the catalyst lands.
Entry: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . Stop: 29,656.40 (Cam R4) . T1: 29,505.00 . T2: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . R:R: 1.0 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Reasoning: Classic Camarilla reversion. Flat all positions before 13:30 UK regardless of P/L.

B. Camarilla range fade - LONG from S3 (pre-CPI window only)
Entry: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . Stop: 29,350.40 (Cam S4) . T1: 29,528.90 (Cam R1) . T2: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1.3 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Reasoning: Mirror of setup A. S3 at 29,426.90 sits almost exactly on today's 29,427.61 low - a tested level, which strengthens it.

C. Camarilla breakout - LONG above R4 (soft CPI)
Entry: 29,656.40 (Cam R4) . Stop: 29,579.90 (Cam R3) . T1: 29,823.79 (pivot R2) . T2: 29,941.79 (pivot R3) . R:R: 2.2 to T1, 3.7 to T2
Reasoning: A break above R4 on a cool inflation print converts the compression into trend. The bullish MACD cross and full EMA stack mean the path of least resistance is up if the data cooperates. T2 puts 30,000 in play.

D. Camarilla breakdown - SHORT below S4 (hot CPI)
Entry: 29,350.40 (Cam S4) . Stop: 29,426.90 (Cam S3) . T1: 29,267.41 (pivot S2) . T2: 29,107.22 (pivot S3) . R:R: 1.1 to T1, 3.2 to T2
Reasoning: A hot core print breaks S4 and opens the EMA20 at 29,246.45, which coincides almost perfectly with pivot S2. Expect a fight there - that confluence is the first real bid.

E. EMA20 confluence bounce - LONG (deeper flush only)
Entry: 29,250.00 (EMA20 29,246.45 + pivot S2 29,267.41) . Stop: 29,100.00 . T1: 29,500.00 . T2: 29,663.60 (pivot R1) . R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.8 to T2
Reasoning: The highest-quality level on the chart. Only take it on a controlled test with a bounce, not a vertical knife. Below 29,100 stand aside and let the EMA50 at 28,940 do the work.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 MEGA-CAPS
All component levels from the 10 August close - structural reference, not live session pivots.

NVDA - 217.54
Cam: S4 213.49 . S3 215.51 . S1 216.86 || R1 218.22 . R3 219.57 . R4 221.59
Classic: S3 207.46 . S2 212.11 . S1 214.83 . P 219.48 . R1 222.20 . R2 226.85 . R3 229.57
EMAs: 20 at 208.81 . 50 at 206.26 . 200 at 192.98 | POC 209.16 | Prev H/L 224.14 / 216.77 | 52w 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - 506.06
Cam: S4 499.76 . S3 502.91 . S1 505.01 || R1 507.11 . R3 509.21 . R4 512.36
Classic: S3 489.52 . S2 495.89 . S1 500.98 . P 507.35 . R1 512.44 . R2 518.81 . R3 523.90
EMAs: 20 at 444.86 . 50 at 419.91 . 200 at 426.61 | POC 409.89 | Prev H/L 513.73 / 502.27 | 52w 553.72 / 349.20

AAPL - 308.26
Cam: S4 306.25 . S3 307.26 . S1 307.93 || R1 308.59 . R3 309.26 . R4 310.27
Classic: S3 302.18 . S2 303.39 . S1 305.83 . P 307.04 . R1 309.48 . R2 310.69 . R3 313.13
EMAs: 20 at 316.90 . 50 at 309.87 . 200 at 280.84 | POC 306.42 | Prev H/L 308.26 / 304.61 | 52w 344.57 / 219.25
Note: closed on its low and below both the 20 and 50 EMA with a bearish MACD. Reclaiming 309.87 is the bull trigger.

AMZN - 278.09
Cam: S4 274.49 . S3 276.29 . S1 277.49 || R1 278.69 . R3 279.89 . R4 281.69
Classic: S3 267.87 . S2 270.74 . S1 274.41 . P 277.28 . R1 280.95 . R2 283.82 . R3 287.49
EMAs: 20 at 257.80 . 50 at 251.16 . 200 at 238.25 | POC 249.38 | Prev H/L 280.14 / 273.60 | 52w 287.20 / 196.00

AVGO - 422.40
Cam: S4 415.49 . S3 418.94 . S1 421.25 || R1 423.55 . R3 425.86 . R4 429.31
Classic: S3 404.89 . S2 412.53 . S1 417.46 . P 425.10 . R1 430.03 . R2 437.67 . R3 442.60
EMAs: 20 at 399.74 . 50 at 394.29 . 200 at 363.67 | POC 400.97 | Prev H/L 432.73 / 420.16 | 52w 495.00 / 281.87



BEARISH WARNINGS

1. Death-cross structures. Five names now have their 50 EMA below their 200 EMA with price beneath the 50: META, TSLA, COST, TMUS, SNPS. META is the concerning one - a mega-cap with a bearish MACD, sitting 25.3% below its 52-week high and below all three EMAs. Only 22 of 40 components still have a 50-over-200 golden-cross structure.

2. The semiconductor bleed. Nine of eleven semis are below their 20 and 50 EMAs, nine of eleven trade below their POC, and the group averaged -2.53% on the day. The NASDAQ 100 cannot sustain new highs with its highest-beta group in this condition. If NVDA (still bull-stacked, but -2.87% and only 8% off its high) loses 208.81, the last semiconductor support goes with it.

3. Overbought cluster. Eight components carry RSI at or above 70: REGN 83.2, ABNB 81.5, MSFT 79.1, WDAY 72.3, CRWD 71.3, BKNG 71.1, PYPL 71.0, PANW 70.3. Concentrated leadership at overbought readings is how narrow rallies end. PYPL is already flashing the warning - RSI 71.0 but a bearish MACD histogram of -0.16 and a flat 0.00% day on relative volume of just 0.36. That is momentum failing while the oscillator is still elevated.

4. Bearish MACD despite green days. MELI closed +0.20% with a -8.99 histogram and sits below both its 20 and 200 EMA. TMUS and LIN both closed green with bearish MACD. Rising price on deteriorating momentum is a low-quality advance.

5. Relative-strength laggards. MAR at RSI 38.0 is the weakest reading in the index, below its 20 and 50 with a bearish MACD and 15.2% off its high. INTU is 56.1% below its 52-week high, NFLX 39.8%, QCOM 37.6%, KLAC 37.3%, MRVL 36.8% - a reminder that "NASDAQ 100 near highs" describes the index, not most of its members.

One positive on the risk side: no component is within 15% of its 52-week low. The nearest are TMUS (+7.6% above its low) and TSLA (+11.3%). There is no distress in the index, just rotation.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Wednesday 12 August - the day that matters
13:30 UK (08:30 ET) - US CPI, July. Consensus: headline +0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; core +0.32% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. June headline fell 0.4% month-on-month and ran 3.5% year-on-year. This is the release the entire compressed range is waiting on. A core print above 0.32% reopens the rate debate and puts setup D in play; a soft print releases the coil upward through Cam R4.

After the US close - CSCO Q4 FY26 earnings. Consensus EPS 1.17 (up 18% year-on-year) on revenue of 16.83bn. CSCO enters with a full bull stack, RSI 62.9 and relative volume above 1.0, trading 6.0% below its 52-week high. As an AI-networking bellwether the read-through to the broader infrastructure complex is real.

Thursday 13 August
21:30 UK (16:30 ET) - AMAT Q3 FY26 earnings call. Consensus EPS 3.39 on revenue near 9bn, against company guidance of 8.95bn plus or minus 500m and EPS 3.36 plus or minus 0.20. AMAT is the sick man of the semis right now - below its 20 and 50 EMAs, 29.4% off its high, and it closed -3.16%. Given the sector backdrop this is the single highest-variance component event of the week. Note also that AMAT carries an ATR of 37.89, or 7.3% of its price, before any earnings gap.

July PPI also lands this week, providing the second half of the inflation picture.

Ongoing macro risk
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive crude, and by extension the inflation expectations that feed straight back into the CPI reaction function. Headline risk here is unscheduled and can override the technicals on any given session.



SUMMARY
The NASDAQ 100 is a healthy uptrend sitting on its hands. Price is above all three EMAs in perfect alignment, MACD has just crossed bullish with a +174 histogram, RSI sits at a neutral 55, and volume is quietly drying up into a shallow 4% pullback from the highs. Structurally, everything says higher.

The problem is internal. Software and security are ripping while semiconductors - the index's highest-beta engine - are broken below their 20 and 50 EMAs almost across the board. Leadership has narrowed into a handful of overbought names. That is a market that can keep grinding up, but not one that can accelerate.

Tomorrow's CPI resolves it. Above 29,656 the coil releases toward 30,000. Below 29,350 the EMA20/pivot-S2 confluence at 29,246-29,267 is where the trend gets its first real test. Between those two lines, do less.

Report: 11 August 2026 22:55 GMT . Index data 11 August close . Component scanner data 10 August close . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MONDAY 10 AUGUST 2026
Data: Close 10 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,621.80 | Change: -100.50 (-0.34%) | Range: 29,606.47 - 29,784.21




MARKET OVERVIEW
The NAS100 closed at 29,621.80, down 100.50 points (-0.34%) after opening at 29,709.49 and failing to hold the early push to 29,784.21. The 177.73-point range was the tightest of the last five sessions - a compression day, not a distribution day. Volume came in at 1.26bn shares versus a 252-day average of 1.32bn (0.95x), so there was no institutional urgency behind the fade.

Three things drove the tape. First, oil - Brent held near $84 as the market waited on an elusive Strait of Hormuz deal that Iran called "very close" but did not deliver, keeping an inflation premium in the front of everyone's mind. Second, Wednesday's July CPI, the single event this week that matters, with the Fed openly split on whether the next move is a hike after Friday's shock -23,000 payrolls print. Third, and most important for index internals, a violent rotation out of semiconductors and into cybersecurity and software following the Black Hat conference, where AI-agent attack surface dominated the agenda.

Breadth was almost perfectly split - 21 advancers, 18 decliners, 1 unchanged - which understates how lopsided the session actually was underneath. Every single one of the 11 semiconductor names in the scan closed red. Every one. Meanwhile PANW +5.82% and CRWD +5.01% both printed fresh 52-week highs. That is not a risk-off day; that is a rotation day.

Bias: Constructive but not aggressive. Price remains 445 points above the 20 EMA and 2763 above the 200 EMA with a bullish EMA stack intact. VIX at 15.45 (+3.7%) is elevated only relative to a very low base. The index is 3.71% below its 52-week high of 30,762.20 - a normal pullback inside an uptrend, not a topping structure. Respect the CPI print on Wednesday; size accordingly until it clears.




TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack: Close 29,621.80 > 20 EMA 29,176.69 > 50 EMA 28,916.32 > 200 EMA 26,858.43. A textbook bullish alignment, fully stacked, with all three averages rising.

Distance from the means: +445 pts (+1.53%) above the 20 EMA, +705 pts (+2.44%) above the 50 EMA, +2763 pts (+10.29%) above the 200 EMA. That 200 EMA extension is the number to watch - it is a long way from the mean and historically the index does not sustain much more than this without a consolidation.

Structure: The recent swing sequence remains higher-highs / higher-lows. Last week produced a high at 29,946.93 (6 Aug) and a low at 29,123.38 (7 Aug) before Friday's 29,722.30 close. Today's 29,606.47 low held comfortably above that, so the short-term uptrend is technically unbroken. The 30,762.20 52-week high set earlier in the cycle is the only level of consequence overhead.

Phase: Stage 2 advance, mid-to-late. Price above a rising 200 EMA, higher lows intact, but the index has now spent five sessions chopping in a 29,100-29,950 band. That is consolidation inside an uptrend - a continuation pattern until proven otherwise. A daily close below 29,123.38 (the 7 Aug low) would be the first genuine crack.




MOMENTUM AND VOLUME
RSI(14): 56.14 - mid-range and neutral-to-constructive. Well clear of the 50 line that has acted as the floor through this advance, and nowhere near overbought. There is no bearish divergence on the daily: the index made a marginally lower high last week while RSI also made a lower high, so momentum is confirming price rather than diverging from it. Room to run in either direction.

MACD: +54.39 / Signal -131.77 / Histogram +186.17 - the MACD line has crossed back above zero and sits well above a still-deeply-negative signal line, producing a large positive histogram. This is the classic post-correction momentum reset firing back to the upside. The signal line at -131.77 will take several more sessions to catch up, which mechanically keeps the histogram positive and is a tailwind, not a warning.

Volume: 1.26bn versus 1.32bn average = 0.95x. Below-average participation on a down day is a mild positive - sellers were not committed. Note that only four of the 40 components traded above their own average volume today (ABNB 1.93x, DASH 1.65x, REGN 1.10x, CSCO 1.03x). Summer-holiday liquidity is thin; treat single-stock breakouts on sub-1.0x relative volume with appropriate scepticism.




KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 29,735.18 - today's classic pivot R1 and the first line in the sand. Also the Camarilla R4 breakout trigger at 29,719.56 sits just below it, so 29,720-29,735 is a genuine cluster.
R2 29,848.56 - Friday's high was 29,747.15; this zone is where the last two rallies stalled.
R3 29,912.92 - above here the index is unwinding into the 29,946.93 area (6 Aug high) and then the 30,762.20 52-week high.

Support
S1 29,557.45 - today's low was 29,606.47. This is the immediate shelf; losing it opens the gap-fill toward the 20 EMA.
S2 29,493.10 - confluence with the round 29,500 handle. First level a dip-buyer should genuinely respect.
S3 29,379.72 - below this the 20 EMA at 29,176.69 becomes the target, and that is the real trend test.

Classic pivots: S2 29,493.10 . S1 29,557.45 . P 29,670.83 . R1 29,735.18 . R2 29,848.56
Camarilla: S4 29,524.05 . S3 29,572.93 . S1 29,605.51 || R1 29,638.10 . R3 29,670.68 . R4 29,719.56
Round numbers: 29,500 . 29,750 . 30,000 (the psychological magnet, and only 1.28%% away) . 30,500
Moving averages: 20 EMA 29,176.69 . 50 EMA 28,916.32 . 200 EMA 26,858.43
52-week: High 30,762.20 (-3.71%) . Low 22,841.42 (+29.68%)




COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Trend uses strict EMA classification: close versus each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA. POC = 60-day volume-weighted point of control.

AAPL 308.26 . -1.62% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.1 Neutral . MACD Bear . -10.5% from 52wH . Above POC
MSFT 506.06 . +1.21% . Bull (above all) . RSI 79.1 Overbought . MACD Bull . -8.6% from 52wH . Above POC
NVDA 217.54 . -2.87% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -8.0% from 52wH . Above POC
AMZN 278.09 . +1.32% . Bull (above all) . RSI 65.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -3.2% from 52wH . Above POC
META 594.92 . +0.48% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -25.3% from 52wH . Below POC
GOOGL 357.52 . +0.91% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.2 Bullish . MACD Bull . -12.5% from 52wH . Below POC
AVGO 422.40 . -1.25% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.8 Strong . MACD Bull . -14.7% from 52wH . Above POC
TSLA 330.88 . +0.70% . Bear (below all) . RSI 42.5 Neutral . MACD Bull . -33.7% from 52wH . Below POC
COST 952.75 . +0.52% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 52.0 Bullish . MACD Bull . -13.1% from 52wH . Below POC
NFLX 76.29 . +2.90% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 58.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -39.8% from 52wH . Below POC
AMD 469.56 . -2.86% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 44.7 Neutral . MACD Bear . -19.7% from 52wH . Below POC
ADBE 272.96 . +2.92% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.0 Strong . MACD Bull . -26.4% from 52wH . Above POC
QCOM 162.17 . -3.39% . Bear (below all) . RSI 44.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -37.6% from 52wH . Below POC
TMUS 178.20 . +0.57% . Bear (below all) . RSI 47.6 Neutral . MACD Bear . -31.9% from 52wH . Below POC
LIN 492.46 . +0.51% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 41.5 Neutral . MACD Bear . -10.2% from 52wH . Below POC
ISRG 393.38 . +3.85% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 56.9 Bullish . MACD Bull . -34.9% from 52wH . Above POC
INTU 334.43 . +2.82% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 64.6 Strong . MACD Bull . -56.1% from 52wH . Above POC
CSCO 122.57 . +0.94% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.9 Strong . MACD Bull . -6.0% from 52wH . Above POC
TXN 280.44 . -1.97% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -16.0% from 52wH . Below POC
AMAT 522.12 . -3.16% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.4 Neutral . MACD Bull . -29.4% from 52wH . Below POC
BKNG 212.88 . -0.72% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.1 Overbought . MACD Bull . -8.2% from 52wH . Above POC
PANW 385.04 . +5.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 70.3 Overbought . MACD Bull . -0.0% from 52wH . Above POC
MU 861.00 . -1.89% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.3 Neutral . MACD Bull . -31.4% from 52wH . Below POC
LRCX 306.40 . -1.59% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.4 Neutral . MACD Bull . -30.1% from 52wH . Below POC
KLAC 192.74 . -2.71% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.7 Neutral . MACD Bull . -37.3% from 52wH . Below POC
ADI 383.93 . -1.54% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) . RSI 51.3 Bullish . MACD Bull . -13.9% from 52wH . Below POC
REGN 808.05 . +3.02% . Bull (above all) . RSI 83.2 Overbought . MACD Bull . -1.6% from 52wH . Above POC
SNPS 411.68 . -1.04% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 51.4 Bullish . MACD Bull . -34.5% from 52wH . Below POC
CDNS 331.91 . -2.16% . Bear (below all) . RSI 40.0 Neutral . MACD Bull . -20.3% from 52wH . Below POC
MELI 1,824.34 . +0.20% . Mixed (below 20, above 50, below 200) . RSI 50.4 Bullish . MACD Bear . -28.4% from 52wH . Above POC
CRWD 225.16 . +5.01% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.3 Overbought . MACD Bull . -0.8% from 52wH . Above POC
MAR 348.44 . -1.55% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 38.0 Weak . MACD Bear . -15.2% from 52wH . Below POC
ABNB 184.70 . +3.72% . Bull (above all) . RSI 81.5 Overbought . MACD Bull . -0.7% from 52wH . Above POC
MRVL 208.61 . -4.62% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) . RSI 48.8 Neutral . MACD Bull . -36.8% from 52wH . Below POC
DASH 209.86 . -2.96% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.1 Strong . MACD Bull . -26.5% from 52wH . Above POC
FTNT 164.21 . +2.86% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.6 Bullish . MACD Bull . -4.6% from 52wH . Above POC
CEG 270.43 . +0.20% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 55.2 Bullish . MACD Bull . -34.5% from 52wH . Above POC
WDAY 184.19 . +2.53% . Bull (above all) . RSI 72.3 Overbought . MACD Bull . -26.3% from 52wH . Above POC
PYPL 59.07 . 0.00% . Bull (above all) . RSI 71.0 Overbought . MACD Bear . -25.4% from 52wH . Above POC
ORLY 92.23 . -1.39% . Bull (above all) . RSI 57.1 Bullish . MACD Bull . -15.2% from 52wH . Above POC

Totals: 21 advancing / 18 declining / 1 flat . 17 Bull (above all EMAs), 5 Bear (below all EMAs), 9 Bear (below 20/50), 4 Bull (above 20/50), 5 Mixed . 28 of 40 above their 200 EMA . 32 of 40 with a bullish MACD . 21 of 40 above POC




SECTOR BREAKDOWN
Mega-cap Tech - avg -0.14% (5/8 up)
Split down the middle and going nowhere. MSFT (RSI 79.1, +1.21%) and AMZN (+1.32%) are doing the heavy lifting, both above every EMA. NVDA gave back 2.87% and closed at 217.54 after tagging 224.14 intraday - a clear distribution candle, though it holds all three EMAs. AAPL is the structural problem child: below both the 20 and 50 EMA with a bearish MACD, and it has now lost 10.5% from its high. META and TSLA remain below all three EMAs and 25%/34% off their highs respectively. The mega-cap complex is not leading.

Semiconductors - avg -2.64% (0/9 up)
The story of the day, and it is ugly. All nine names here closed red, and adding NVDA and AVGO makes it 11 from 11 across the whole semi complex - a clean sweep. MRVL was worst at -4.62%, closing at 208.61 on its low after touching 230.10. QCOM -3.39% and AMAT -3.16% follow. Seven of the nine sit below both their 20 and 50 EMA. The saving grace: MACD is still positive on seven of nine, so this reads as a sharp one-day unwind of a crowded trade rather than a completed trend break. AMAT reports later this week, which will settle the argument.

Software/Cloud - avg +2.19% (7/9 up)
The mirror image, and the clear leadership group. PANW +5.82% to a fresh 52-week high at 385.17, CRWD +5.01% to within 0.8% of its own record, both on the back of Black Hat and BTIG's note that AI agents have become the primary attack vector. FTNT +2.86% joined them. ADBE +2.92%, INTU +2.82% and WDAY +2.53% all closed above their 20 and 50 EMAs. The two blemishes are the EDA pair - SNPS -1.04% and CDNS -2.16% - which trade with semis, not software. CSCO is quietly strong at +0.94% on 1.03x volume with earnings due this week.

Consumer/Internet - avg +0.13% (5/10 up)
Genuinely mixed. ABNB was the standout: +3.72% on 1.93x relative volume, the heaviest participation in the entire scan, closing 0.7% off its 52-week high. NFLX +2.90% reclaimed its 50 EMA. Against that, DASH lost 2.96% on 1.65x volume - heavy volume on a down day is the wrong kind of conviction - and MAR is the weakest name in the group at RSI 38.0 below both the 20 and 50 EMA. TMUS remains below all three EMAs with a bearish MACD. BKNG is overbought at RSI 71.1 but above every EMA.

Healthcare/Biotech - avg +3.44% (2/2 up)
The quiet outperformer, averaging +3.44%. REGN +3.02% on 1.10x volume with an RSI of 83.2 - the most overbought reading in the entire index and only 1.6% from its 52-week high. ISRG +3.85% reclaimed both its 50 EMA (391.71) and its POC (391.94) in a single session, with the strongest MACD histogram expansion in the scan. Both are extended short-term; neither is broken.

Industrial/Other - avg +0.35% (2/2 up)
Thin and unremarkable. CEG +0.20% holds above its 20 and 50 EMA but sits 34.5% below its high and under a falling 200 EMA. LIN +0.51% is the weaker of the two - below both the 20 and 50 EMA with a bearish MACD and an RSI of 41.5, the second-lowest in the index.

Rotation read: Money moved out of semiconductors (-2.64% average) and into software and cyber (+2.19% average) - a 4.8-point spread in a single session. Until semis stabilise the index cannot make a sustained new high, because they carry too much weight. But the fact that the money stayed inside the Nasdaq rather than leaving it is why the index only lost 0.34%.



TOP SWING SETUPS
All stops are ATR(14)-based. R:R is quoted to T2. Position size so that a full stop-out is a controlled loss, and remember CPI lands Wednesday.

PANW LONG - Breakout continuation
Entry: 385.20 . Stop: 369.40 . T1: 400.00 . T2: 432.50 . R:R: 1:2.99 (T1 1:0.94) . ATR: 15.77
Confluence: Fresh 52-week high at 385.17 with zero overhead supply. Above all three EMAs (20: 344.56, 50: 314.88, 200: 240.39) and 27.9% above its 301.12 POC. Black Hat catalyst is fundamental, not technical noise.
Note: RSI 70.3 is overbought but breakouts to all-time highs routinely run overbought. Relative volume was only 0.92x - the one flaw in an otherwise clean setup. Wait for a hold above 385.20 rather than chasing the open.

ABNB LONG - Breakout continuation
Entry: 186.00 . Stop: 179.85 . T1: 191.27 . T2: 198.30 . R:R: 1:2.00 (T1 1:0.86) . ATR: 6.15
Confluence: 1.93x relative volume - by a distance the heaviest participation in the whole scan - closing 0.7% below the 185.99 52-week high. Above all EMAs and 27.4% above its 145.02 POC. Classic pre-breakout accumulation candle.
Note: RSI 81.5 is the second-most-overbought reading in the index, so this is a momentum-continuation trade with a short leash, not a value entry. Stop sits below today's 179.42 pivot S1.

ISRG LONG - Breakout continuation
Entry: 393.80 . Stop: 380.10 . T1: 414.30 . T2: 450.40 . R:R: 1:4.13 (T1 1:1.50) . ATR: 13.70
Confluence: Reclaimed both the 50 EMA (391.71) and the 391.94 POC in one session on +3.85%, with the largest MACD histogram expansion in the scan (+5.81). Structural base-recovery play off the 328.57 52-week low.
Note: Still below a falling 200 EMA at 450.39, which is exactly why T2 is set there - that is the level the whole trade is aiming at. RSI 56.9 leaves genuine room. The most asymmetric setup on the board.

MRVL SHORT - Breakdown continuation
Entry: 208.40 . Stop: 218.05 . T1: 201.38 . T2: 194.15 . R:R: 1:1.48 (T1 1:0.73) . ATR: 19.30
Confluence: Worst performer in the index at -4.62%, closing at 208.61 versus a 208.51 low - closing on the low is capitulation, not support. Rejected from 230.10, lost the 50 EMA (213.70) and sits 18% below its 254.46 POC.
Note: Only clinging to the 20 EMA at 208.12 by 49 cents; losing it triggers the trade. ATR is a wide 19.30 so the stop must be wide too - halve normal size. Do not short into a semiconductor bounce; wait for the break.

QCOM SHORT - Breakdown continuation
Entry: 162.00 . Stop: 166.80 . T1: 157.58 . T2: 153.09 . R:R: 1:1.86 (T1 1:0.92) . ATR: 8.99
Confluence: Below all three EMAs (20: 166.78, 50: 177.61, 200: 171.68) with the 50 EMA above the 200 - the weakest structure of any large-cap semi. Closed at 162.17 versus a 162.08 low, 37.6% below its 52-week high and 19% below POC.
Note: MACD histogram is marginally positive (+1.46), the one thing arguing against. Stop is placed just above the 20 EMA at 166.78, which is the level that would invalidate the whole bear case.





INTRADAY SETUPS
Camarilla logic: a close between S1 and R1 signals a range day - fade S3 and R3. A close beyond R4 or S4 signals a breakout day - trade with it.

NAS100 INDEX - Camarilla range fade (primary)
The index closed at 29,621.80, between Camarilla S1 (29,605.51) and R1 (29,638.10). That is the textbook range-day signature.
Long: Entry 29,572.93 (Cam S3) . Stop: 29,514.05 (below Cam S4) . T1: 29,638.10 (Cam R1) . T2: 29,670.68 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1:1.66
Short: Entry 29,670.68 (Cam R3) . Stop: 29,729.56 (above Cam R4) . T1: 29,605.51 (Cam S1) . T2: 29,572.93 (Cam S3) . R:R: 1:1.66
Reasoning: Yesterday's 177-point range was the narrowest of the last five sessions and volume was 0.95x average - compression plus low participation is the classic precondition for a mean-reverting session. Abandon the fade immediately if the index opens beyond Cam R4 29,719.56 or Cam S4 29,524.05; that flips it to a trend day.

MSFT - Camarilla range reversal, long
Entry: 502.91 (Cam S3) . Stop: 499.16 (below Cam S4) . T1: 507.11 (Cam R1) . T2: 509.21 (Cam R3) . R:R: 1:1.68
Direction: Long. Reasoning: Closed at 506.06, wedged between Cam S1 (505.01) and Cam R1 (507.11) - a range signature on the strongest mega-cap in the index. RSI 79.1 and 20.5%% above its 409.89 POC means the trend backdrop supports buying dips rather than selling rips. The 502.27 session low reinforces the Cam S4 zone.

AAPL - Classic pivot bounce, long (counter-trend scalp)
Entry: 305.83 (pivot S1) . Stop: 302.99 (below S2) . T1: 307.04 (pivot P) . T2: 309.48 (pivot R1) . R:R: 1:1.29
Direction: Long, scalp only. Reasoning: AAPL closed at 308.26 on its session high after a -1.62%% day, holding just above its 306.42 POC. But it is below both the 20 EMA (316.90) and 50 EMA (309.87) with a bearish MACD, so this is explicitly counter-trend. Take T1 and leave. If 305.83 breaks, the next real support is the 302.18 pivot S3.

AMAT - Camarilla range short - EARNINGS RISK
Entry: 525.21 (Cam R1) . Stop: 532.40 (above Cam R3) . T1: 519.03 (Cam S1) . T2: 512.84 (Cam S3) . R:R: 1:1.72
Direction: Short. Reasoning: Fell 3.16%% to 522.12 after touching 555.32 - a 33-point rejection - and now sits below both the 20 EMA (534.02) and 50 EMA (528.75) and 4.9%% under its 549.03 POC. ATR is a huge 37.89, so keep size small. Critical: AMAT reports later this week; close this trade before the print or do not take it at all.

ABNB - Camarilla breakout long
Entry: 189.41 (above Cam R4) . Stop: 186.70 (back below Cam R3) . T1: 191.27 (pivot R2) . T2: 196.54 (pivot R3) . R:R: 1:2.63
Direction: Long. Reasoning: The only name in the scan pairing a near-52-week-high close with genuinely heavy volume (1.93x). A move through Cam R4 at 189.41 clears the 185.99 record and leaves no overhead supply at all. T2 is the 196.54 pivot R3. RSI 81.5 means this either works immediately or it fails - do not hold a laggard.




KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD
The five names most likely to matter tomorrow. POC is the 60-day volume point of control.

NVDA - 217.54 (-2.87%, heaviest index weight, distribution candle)
Cam: S4 213.49 . S3 215.51 . S1 216.86 || R1 218.22 . R3 219.57 . R4 221.59
Classic: S3 207.46 . S2 212.11 . S1 214.83 . P 219.48 . R1 222.20 . R2 226.85 . R3 229.57
EMAs: 20 208.81 . 50 206.26 . 200 192.98 . POC: 209.16
Prev H/L: 224.14 / 216.77 . 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07 . ATR: 7.62 . RVol: 0.88x

MSFT - 506.06 (+1.21%, strongest mega-cap, range setup)
Cam: S4 499.76 . S3 502.91 . S1 505.01 || R1 507.11 . R3 509.21 . R4 512.36
Classic: S3 489.52 . S2 495.89 . S1 500.98 . P 507.35 . R1 512.44 . R2 518.81 . R3 523.90
EMAs: 20 444.86 . 50 419.91 . 200 426.61 . POC: 409.89
Prev H/L: 513.73 / 502.27 . 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.20 . ATR: 15.67 . RVol: 0.74x

PANW - 385.04 (+5.82%, fresh 52-week high, day leader)
Cam: S4 372.82 . S3 378.93 . S1 383.00 || R1 387.08 . R3 391.15 . R4 397.26
Classic: S3 348.05 . S2 355.50 . S1 370.27 . P 377.72 . R1 392.49 . R2 399.94 . R3 414.71
EMAs: 20 344.56 . 50 314.88 . 200 240.39 . POC: 301.12
Prev H/L: 385.17 / 362.95 . 52w H/L: 385.17 / 139.57 . ATR: 15.77 . RVol: 0.92x

CRWD - 225.16 (+5.01%, record high, second leader)
Cam: S4 218.37 . S3 221.76 . S1 224.03 || R1 226.29 . R3 228.56 . R4 231.95
Classic: S3 205.16 . S2 209.85 . S1 217.51 . P 222.20 . R1 229.86 . R2 234.55 . R3 242.21
EMAs: 20 198.90 . 50 184.02 . 200 144.42 . POC: 179.21
Prev H/L: 226.90 / 214.55 . 52w H/L: 226.90 / 85.68 . ATR: 9.74 . RVol: 0.98x

AMAT - 522.12 (-3.16%, earnings this week, semi bellwether)
Cam: S4 503.56 . S3 512.84 . S1 519.03 || R1 525.21 . R3 531.40 . R4 540.68
Classic: S3 476.94 . S2 499.25 . S1 510.69 . P 533.00 . R1 544.44 . R2 566.75 . R3 578.19
EMAs: 20 534.02 . 50 528.75 . 200 408.53 . POC: 549.03
Prev H/L: 555.32 / 521.57 . 52w H/L: 739.67 / 154.47 . ATR: 37.89 . RVol: 0.83x





BEARISH WARNINGS
Full bearish EMA alignment
Three names now trade below all three EMAs and carry a 50 EMA below their 200 EMA - the genuine death-cross structure, not just a weak close:
META 594.92 (+0.48%) . 50 EMA 603.53 below 200 EMA 627.01 . RSI 48.6 . -25.3% from 52w high . MACD Bear
TSLA 330.88 (+0.70%) . 50 EMA 365.69 below 200 EMA 386.68 . RSI 42.5 . -33.7% from 52w high . MACD Bull
TMUS 178.20 (+0.57%) . 50 EMA 183.11 below 200 EMA 198.07 . RSI 47.6 . -31.9% from 52w high . MACD Bear

Bearish MACD crossovers
Eight of 40 have MACD below signal: AAPL (-3.19 histogram, the worst), MELI (-8.99, the largest absolute negative), AMD (-2.77), MAR (-2.06), LIN (-1.42), META (-1.34), TMUS (-0.27) and PYPL (-0.16).

Overbought readings and divergence risk
Eight names closed with RSI at or above 70. Most are earning it, but two are not:
PYPL 59.07 - RSI 71.0 on a 0.00%% day with 0.36x relative volume and a MACD that has already rolled bearish. An overbought reading with no volume and no price progress is a negative divergence in the making. The most fragile name in the index.
REGN 808.05 - RSI 83.2, the most extended reading in the whole scan, only 1.6%% from its 52-week high after a +3.02%% day. Nothing wrong with the trend, but there is no margin of safety for a new entry here.
Also overbought: MSFT 79.1, ABNB 81.5, WDAY 72.3, CRWD 71.3, BKNG 71.1, PANW 70.3.

Deteriorating momentum
MELI 1,824.34 - below its 20 EMA with a MACD histogram of -8.99, the deepest negative reading of any component, despite a fractionally green close. MAR 348.44 - RSI 38.0 is the lowest in the index, below both 20 and 50 EMA, and 7%% under its 374.06 POC. LIN 492.46 - RSI 41.5, bearish MACD, below 20 and 50 EMA.

The real risk: the semiconductor sweep
Eleven from eleven semiconductor names closed red, averaging -2.64%%. That is not noise, it is a coordinated de-risking of the most crowded trade in the index. Seven of nine in the core semi group are now below both their 20 and 50 EMA. The mitigating fact is that MACD remains bullish on seven of them, so the damage is one-day rather than structural - but if semis are still red on Tuesday, the index cannot hold 29,600 for long. This is the single thing to watch at the open.

Names near 52-week lows
TMUS sits just 7.6%% above its 52-week low, TSLA 11.3%%, ORLY 11.7%%, SNPS 12.5%%, COST 12.9%% and META 14.4%%. In an index 3.7%% from its own record high, that dispersion is worth noting.




EVENTS CALENDAR
Economic data - the week that decides the trend
Wed 12 Aug, 13:30 UK - July CPI. The event. The Fed is openly divided on whether the next move is a hike after the oil shock, and Friday's -23,000 payrolls print flipped the narrative. A hot number reprices the curve hawkishly and the 30,000 handle goes out of reach; a cool number and the index likely tests the 52-week high inside a fortnight. Do not carry oversized index risk into 13:30 on Wednesday.
Wed 12 Aug - Fed speakers Barkin and Schmid, both after the CPI print.
Thu 13 Aug, 13:30 UK - July PPI and weekly jobless claims. The confirmation or contradiction of Wednesday.
Fri 14 Aug, 13:30 UK - July retail sales. Completes the clearest read yet on whether inflation is cool enough to justify a pause.
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz negotiations. Brent near $84 with Iran saying a deal is "very close" and not delivering. A genuine opening is a disinflationary shock and a direct positive for the index; further delay keeps the energy premium in the CPI.

Earnings among the 40
CSCO - reports this week (Wednesday expected, after the close). Closed +0.94%% at 122.57 on 1.03x volume, above all three EMAs and 6.0%% from its 52-week high. One of the few names showing real accumulation into a print.
AMAT - reports this week (Thursday expected, after the close). Closed -3.16%% at 522.12 after rejecting 555.32, below both its 20 and 50 EMA. ATR of 37.89 means the implied move is enormous. The single most important report for the semi complex.

Sector-relevant, outside the 40
CoreWeave (CRWV) - Tue 11 Aug after the close, 22:00 UK. Alongside Nebius, Cerebras and Super Micro this week, these results are the market's read on whether the AI infrastructure build-out is still accelerating. Directly relevant to NVDA, AVGO, MU and the entire semi group that just sold off.
Intel - a $15bn stock offering hit sentiment across semis today. Supply matters.




SUMMARY
A quiet 0.34%% loss hiding a violent rotation. The index structure is intact - bullish EMA stack, RSI 56, MACD histogram expanding positive, 3.7%% from a record - and the fade came on below-average volume in the narrowest range of the week. Nothing in the index chart says sell.

The internals say something more specific: get out of semiconductors, get into software and cyber. Eleven from eleven semis red against PANW and CRWD at record highs is about as clean a rotation signal as this scan produces. Trade the leadership, respect the 29,493 pivot S2 as the line that matters on the downside, and keep size modest until Wednesday's CPI is on the tape.

Report: 10 August 2026 22:55 GMT . Data source: ChartsView scanner, close 10 Aug 2026 . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 Daily Technical Report - Friday 7 August 2026
Data: Close 07 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29,722.30 | Change: +348.97 (+1.19%) | Range: 29,452.71 - 29,747.15
Note: 20 of the 40 component readings below carry the 07 Aug close. The second scanner block (BKNG through ORLY) had not refreshed at the time of writing, so those 20 names use the 06 Aug close and are tagged individually.


Market Overview
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29,722.30, up 348.97 points (+1.19%), finishing near the top of a 294-point session range (29,452.71 - 29,747.15) after opening at 29,596.45. Volume of 1.34bn was slightly below the 1.43bn average - a grind higher on unremarkable participation rather than an aggressive institutional push.
This was the fifth session of a powerful recovery leg. From the 27,192 low the index has added roughly 2,530 points, a move that has restored the entire late-July drawdown and put roughly $3.5 trillion back onto the index's market capitalisation in barely a week. The driver is the same one that broke the market in the first place: AI capex expectations. Strong earnings across the semiconductor and hyperscaler complex have re-anchored the growth narrative, and with money markets no longer pricing a Fed hike before December, the discount rate headwind has eased.
VIX at 14.89 (session range 14.77 - 15.36) confirms the risk backdrop - complacent, not fearful. That is supportive short term but leaves little cushion if next week's CPI surprises.
Bias: bullish while the index holds above 29,340. The index sits just 3.1% below its 30,660.60 record close.


Trend Structure
EMA stack (daily): Price 29,722.30 . EMA20 28,957.74 . EMA50 28,887.53 . EMA200 26,830.66
The stack is fully bullish - price above all three, EMA20 above EMA50, EMA50 comfortably above EMA200. Price sits 2.6% above the 20 EMA and 10.8% above the 200 EMA.
Structure: The July selloff carved a higher low at 27,192 against the June-July advance, and the recovery has already reclaimed the 28,957 / 28,887 EMA cluster that acted as the breakdown pivot. That cluster is now the line in the sand - the 20 and 50 EMAs are compressed within 70 points of each other, which makes the 28,890 - 28,960 band a single, well-defined support shelf.
Phase: Late-stage uptrend, mid-recovery. The index has not yet cleared the 30,407 - 30,660 supply zone that capped it in late July, so this remains a recovery inside a range until that band breaks on volume.


Momentum and Volume
RSI(14): 57.25 - constructive but unstretched. RSI has recovered from a sub-35 washout without reaching overbought, which is the healthier of the two outcomes: there is room to run before momentum becomes a constraint. No bearish divergence is present - the price high and RSI high are advancing together.
MACD: 3.61 . Signal: -178.32 . Histogram: +181.92 - the MACD line has crossed back above zero and above its signal, and the histogram has expanded for four consecutive sessions (-105.71, -32.86, +78.41, +131.08, +152.30, +181.92). That is a clean, confirmed bullish momentum reversal, and the widest positive histogram of the recovery.
Volume: 1.34bn against a 1.43bn 20-day average. Volume has not confirmed the last two up-days. Rallies on declining volume into overhead supply are the classic setup for a stall - this is the single most important caveat in an otherwise bullish read.
ATR(14): 614.37 - roughly 2.1%% of index value. Size positions accordingly; an average day now covers 600 points.


Key Index Levels
Resistance
R1 29,828.7 - Monday classic pivot R1, first test on any gap up
R2 29,935.2 - pivot R2, coincides with the 29,900 - 30,000 psychological shelf
R3 30,123.2 - pivot R3; above it the 30,407 - 30,660 late-July supply zone is the real objective
Support
S1 29,534.3 - pivot S1, first defence
S2 29,346.3 - pivot S2; loss of this ends the short-term bullish structure
S3 29,239.8 - pivot S3, last level before the 28,890 - 28,960 EMA shelf
Monday classic pivots: S2 29,346.3 . S1 29,534.3 . P 29,640.7 . R1 29,828.7 . R2 29,935.2
Round numbers in play: 29,500 . 30,000 . 30,500
Structural: EMA20 28,957.74 . EMA50 28,887.53 . EMA200 26,830.66 . 52w high 30,660.60 . recovery low 27,192.31


Component Signals - All 40
Trend classification is strict: close measured against each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA. All 40 classifications were verified programmatically - zero mismatches.

Mega-cap Tech
AAPL 313.33 +0.29% . Mixed (<20 >50 >200) . RSI 47.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -9.1% from 52w high . POC Above
MSFT 499.99 +0.03% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.1 (OB) . MACD Bull . -9.7% from 52w high . POC Above
NVDA 223.96 +2.37% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.3 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -5.3% from 52w high . POC Above
AMZN 274.48 +0.82% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.2 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -4.4% from 52w high . POC Above
META 592.1 +0.37% . Bear (below all) . RSI 47.7 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -25.6% from 52w high . POC Below
GOOGL 354.3 -0.96% . Bull (above all) . RSI 50.7 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -13.3% from 52w high . POC Below
AVGO 427.76 +1.71% . Bull (above all) . RSI 64.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -13.6% from 52w high . POC Above
TSLA 328.58 +2.83% . Bear (below all) . RSI 41.4 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -34.1% from 52w high . POC Below

Semiconductors
AMD 483.36 -1.21% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 46.9 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -17.3% from 52w high . POC Below
QCOM 167.86 +4.66% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 47.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -35.4% from 52w high . POC Below
TXN 286.08 +2.76% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 50 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -14.4% from 52w high . POC Below
AMAT 539.14 +2.21% . Bull (above all) . RSI 50.1 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -27.1% from 52w high . POC Below
MU 881.47 -1.31% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.9 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -29.8% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
LRCX 305.77 -0.54% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.2 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -30.3% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
KLAC 193.22 +0.19% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.5 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -37.1% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
ADI 377.31 -0.1% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.4 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -15.4% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
MRVL 210.54 -0.23% . Mixed (>20 <50 >200) . RSI 49.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -36.2% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06

Software / Cloud
ADBE 265.21 +1.91% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 66 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -28.5% from 52w high . POC Above
INTU 325.25 +1.04% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 61.1 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -58.6% from 52w high . POC Above
CSCO 121.43 +0.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -6.9% from 52w high . POC Above
SNPS 405.98 +1.29% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 49 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -35.9% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
CDNS 338.42 +0.4% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.2 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -18.8% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
CRWD 207.39 -1.18% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -5.5% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
PANW 359.49 -0.87% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -4.6% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
FTNT 160.11 -2.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.4 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -7.0% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
WDAY 170.24 -0.23% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.1 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -31.9% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06

Consumer / Internet
COST 947.82 -0.14% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 49.8 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -13.6% from 52w high . POC Below
NFLX 74.14 +0.61% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 52.3 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -41.5% from 52w high . POC Below
TMUS 177.19 -1.54% . Bear (below all) . RSI 46.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -32.3% from 52w high . POC Below
BKNG 207.39 +0.18% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.5 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -10.5% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
MELI 1830 -4.81% . Mixed (<20 >50 <200) . RSI 51.2 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -28.2% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
MAR 359.67 -0.45% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.7 (Neutral) . MACD Bear . -12.5% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06
ABNB 151.64 -0.56% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.6 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -3.1% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
DASH 213.26 +2.89% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -25.3% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
PYPL 59.78 +3.19% . Bull (above all) . RSI 75.3 (OB) . MACD Bear . -24.5% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06
ORLY 93.37 -0.07% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.8 (Strong) . MACD Bull . -14.1% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06

Healthcare / Biotech
ISRG 378.81 +1.36% . Mixed (>20 <50 <200) . RSI 51.3 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -37.3% from 52w high . POC Below
REGN 772.11 +0.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.4 (OB) . MACD Bull . -6.0% from 52w high . POC Above . data 2026-08-06

Industrial / Other
LIN 489.98 -0.03% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 39.4 (Weak) . MACD Bear . -10.6% from 52w high . POC Below
CEG 261.1 -1.52% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.7 (Neutral) . MACD Bull . -36.7% from 52w high . POC Below . data 2026-08-06


Sector Read
Semiconductors - split, improving. NVDA and AVGO are the only two chip names above all three EMAs, and both rose. The rest of the complex (AMD, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI) sits below the 20 and 50 EMA but above the 200 - a corrective posture inside an intact long-term uptrend, not a breakdown. QCOM was the day's standout with +4.66%, reclaiming its 20 EMA for the first time since the post-earnings gap, though it remains 35.4% below its 52-week high and well under the 201.50 POC. TXN and AMAT both added over 2% and are pressing their 50 EMAs. The group is bottoming, not yet leading.
Mega-cap Tech - the engine. MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, AVGO and GOOGL are all above all three EMAs. MSFT at RSI 78.1 is the most extended large-cap in the index. The two broken names are META (below all EMAs, MACD bearish, 25.6% off its high, capped by a 601.76 POC) and TSLA (below all EMAs with a fully bearish 20 < 50 < 200 stack, 34.1% off its high) - both are drags rather than participants.
Software / Cloud - the strongest group. CRWD, PANW, FTNT, WDAY, ADBE, INTU and CSCO are all above their 20 and 50 EMAs. PANW and CRWD sit within 5% of 52-week highs with POC well below price. This is where the cleanest institutional accumulation is visible. The exceptions are SNPS and CDNS, both stuck under their 50 EMAs and roughly 19-36% off their highs.
Consumer / Internet - mixed and event-driven. BKNG, ABNB, DASH, PYPL and ORLY are all above their 200 EMA with DASH up 2.89% on 2.23x relative volume. Against that, MELI fell 4.81% on 2.88x relative volume - the largest single-day decline in the index and a genuine distribution signal. MAR and TMUS remain below their 20 and 50 EMAs.
Healthcare / Biotech - narrow strength. REGN at RSI 78.4 is the second-most overbought name in the index and only 6.0% below its 52-week high, with price 124 points above its POC. ISRG is the opposite: above the 20 EMA but under the 50 and 200, and 37.3% off its high.
Industrial / Other - weak. LIN below its 20 and 50 EMAs with RSI 39.4 and a bearish MACD. CEG below all three EMAs, 36.7% off its high, and fell 1.52% on 1.65x relative volume - elevated volume on a down day is distribution, not accumulation.


Top Swing Setups

1. NVDA - Long, trend continuation
Entry: 224.50 . Stop: 216.30 . T1: 232.00 . T2: 236.50 . R:R: 1.5
Above all three EMAs with the 20 EMA at 207.87 and the 200 at 192.73 - a wide, uncrowded stack. RSI 64.3, MACD bullish, closed +2.37% at 223.96, only 5.3% below the 236.54 52-week high. Price is 14.67 above the 209.29 POC, so the whole recent volume shelf sits beneath as support. Stop is 1.07x ATR (7.66) and sits below classic S3 at 217.39. Confluence: EMA stack, POC support, pivot R1 at 225.59 as the trigger level.

2. AMZN - Long, pullback continuation
Entry: 275.50 . Stop: 267.50 . T1: 283.17 . T2: 287.20 . R:R: 1.5
The cleanest large-cap chart in the index: above all three EMAs, RSI 64.2, MACD bullish, and only 4.4% from its 287.20 52-week high. POC at 249.22 is 25 points below price. Entry is just above the 275.18 pivot; stop is 0.86x ATR (9.33) and sits under classic S2 at 269.62. T1 is pivot R3, T2 the prior high. Confluence: pivot reclaim, EMA20 at 255.67 as the trailing stop reference.

3. AVGO - Long, breakout continuation
Entry: 428.50 . Stop: 413.00 . T1: 441.09 . T2: 455.00 . R:R: 1.7
Closed +1.71% at 427.76, above all three EMAs (397.35 / 393.14 / 363.08), RSI 64.8, MACD bullish, 27 points above the 400.85 POC. Still 13.6% below its 495.00 high, which leaves genuine room. Stop is 0.93x ATR (16.60) beneath classic S3 at 413.40. T1 is pivot R3. Confluence: POC support, compressed EMA20/EMA50 pair beneath price, semis leadership.

4. PANW - Long, high-tight structure (06 Aug data)
Entry: 361.60 . Stop: 344.00 . T1: 376.98 . T2: 390.00 . R:R: 1.6
Above all three EMAs with an enormous gap to the 200 EMA at 237.68 - a stage-two trend with no overhead structure. RSI 62.8, MACD bullish, price 63 points above the 296.42 POC, and only 4.6% from the 376.98 high. Entry is a stop-buy above the 361.47 prior high. Stop is 1.13x ATR (15.57) under classic S2 at 344.18. Confluence: the strongest sector in the index plus a fresh 52-week-high attempt.

5. META - Short, broken trend
Entry: 585.00 . Stop: 599.50 . T1: 572.45 . T2: 560.00 . R:R: 1.7
The only mega-cap below all three EMAs (597.33 / 603.88 / 627.33) with a bearish MACD, and it is 25.6% below its 796.25 high after the post-earnings collapse. Price is 9.66 below the 601.76 POC, which now caps every rally attempt. Entry triggers on a break of classic S1 at 585.57; stop is 0.62x ATR (23.22) above the 20 EMA. T1 is classic S3. Confluence: EMA20 and POC stacked as resistance within 10 points of each other.


Intraday Setups for Monday

1. NVDA - Camarilla breakout long
Direction: Long . Entry: 225.15 . Stop: 224.20 . T1: 226.22 . T2: 227.23 . R:R: 2.2
Trigger is a clean break of Camarilla R3 at 225.09, which in a trending name is a continuation signal rather than a fade. Stop sits under Camarilla R1 at 224.34. T1 is Camarilla R4 (226.22), T2 is classic R2 (227.23). Only valid if the index opens above its 29,640.7 pivot.

2. AMZN - Pivot bounce long
Direction: Long . Entry: 272.30 . Stop: 269.50 . T1: 275.18 . T2: 277.61 . R:R: 1.9
Buy the first tag of classic S1 at 272.05 in an uptrending name. Stop is beneath classic S2 at 269.62. T1 is the central pivot, T2 classic R1. Invalidated on a close below 269.62.

3. TSLA - Camarilla range short
Direction: Short . Entry: 331.90 . Stop: 335.60 . T1: 327.44 . T2: 325.15 . R:R: 1.8
Fade the Camarilla R3 at 332.01 - the textbook range-day short in a name trading below all three EMAs (339.99 / 367.11 / 387.24). Stop sits above Camarilla R4 at 335.44. T1 is Camarilla S1, T2 Camarilla S3. Friday's +2.83% bounce is counter-trend into the 20 EMA, which is the logical cap.

4. QCOM - Camarilla breakout long
Direction: Long . Entry: 168.45 . Stop: 166.20 . T1: 169.80 . T2: 171.78 . R:R: 1.5
Momentum continuation after a +4.66% session that reclaimed the 167.27 20 EMA. Trigger above Camarilla R1 at 168.38; stop below Camarilla S3 at 166.30. T1 is classic R1, T2 is the 200 EMA at 171.78, which is the natural first destination and where this should be banked - the 50 EMA at 178.24 and the 201.50 POC remain heavy overhead.

5. GOOGL - Pivot bounce long
Direction: Long . Entry: 352.50 . Stop: 350.20 . T1: 355.66 . T2: 357.54 . R:R: 2.2
Classic S1 at 352.42 sits almost exactly on the 20 EMA at 352.36 - a two-factor support confluence in a name above all three EMAs. Stop beneath classic S2 at 350.54. T1 is the central pivot, T2 classic R1. Note the 359.69 POC caps the upside, so this is a scalp, not a swing.


Key Levels Dashboard - Top 5 Weights

NVDA - Close 223.96
Cam: S4 221.71 . S3 222.83 . S1 223.58 || R1 224.34 . R3 225.09 . R4 226.22
Classic: S3 217.39 . S2 219.03 . S1 221.49 . P 223.13 . R1 225.59 . R2 227.23 . R3 229.69
EMAs: 20 207.87 . 50 205.79 . 200 192.73 | POC 209.29 | Prev H/L 224.76 / 220.66 | 52w H/L 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - Close 499.99
Cam: S4 496.44 . S3 498.22 . S1 499.40 || R1 500.58 . R3 501.76 . R4 503.54
Classic: S3 490.97 . S2 494.85 . S1 497.42 . P 501.30 . R1 503.87 . R2 507.75 . R3 510.32
EMAs: 20 438.42 . 50 416.39 . 200 425.81 | POC 408.22 | Prev H/L 505.18 / 498.73 | 52w H/L 553.72 / 349.20

AMZN - Close 274.48
Cam: S4 271.42 . S3 272.95 . S1 273.97 || R1 274.99 . R3 276.01 . R4 277.54
Classic: S3 266.49 . S2 269.62 . S1 272.05 . P 275.18 . R1 277.61 . R2 280.74 . R3 283.17
EMAs: 20 255.67 . 50 250.06 . 200 237.85 | POC 249.22 | Prev H/L 278.31 / 272.75 | 52w H/L 287.20 / 196.00

AVGO - Close 427.76
Cam: S4 422.68 . S3 425.22 . S1 426.91 || R1 428.61 . R3 430.30 . R4 432.84
Classic: S3 413.40 . S2 417.51 . S1 422.63 . P 426.74 . R1 431.86 . R2 435.97 . R3 441.09
EMAs: 20 397.35 . 50 393.14 . 200 363.08 | POC 400.85 | Prev H/L 430.84 / 421.61 | 52w H/L 495.00 / 281.87

GOOGL - Close 354.30
Cam: S4 351.48 . S3 352.89 . S1 353.83 || R1 354.77 . R3 355.71 . R4 357.12
Classic: S3 347.30 . S2 350.54 . S1 352.42 . P 355.66 . R1 357.54 . R2 360.78 . R3 362.66
EMAs: 20 352.36 . 50 353.90 . 200 322.38 | POC 359.69 | Prev H/L 358.90 / 353.78 | 52w H/L 408.61 / 194.33


Bearish Warnings
Broken trends - below all three EMAs
TSLA 328.58 - fully bearish stack (20 339.99 < 50 367.11 < 200 387.24), 34.1% off its high and only 10.5% above the 297.38 52-week low. Friday's +2.83% is a counter-trend bounce into the 20 EMA.
META 592.10 - MACD bearish, 25.6% off its high, 601.76 POC directly overhead. The weakest mega-cap in the index.
TMUS 177.19 - fell 1.54%, MACD bearish, 32.3% below its high.
CEG 261.10 - fell 1.52% on 1.65x relative volume, 36.7% off its high, 14.2% above its 52-week low. Elevated volume on a down day is distribution.

Distribution and volume warnings
MELI 1,830.00 - down 4.81% on 2.88x relative volume, the largest decline and highest relative volume in the index. Lost the 1,839.67 20 EMA and remains under the 1,874.28 200 EMA with a bearish MACD. Treat as damaged until it reclaims 1,875.
AMD 483.36 - failed at the 501.46 POC and closed below the 498.82 20 EMA with a bearish MACD, despite a 38.27 ATR that makes it the widest-swinging name in the index.

Overbought and divergence risk
REGN RSI 78.4 - most overbought in the index, 6.0% from its high. Momentum is intact but reward is thin here.
MSFT RSI 78.1 - extended, and the 20 EMA at 438.42 is 12% below price. A mean-reversion candidate on any index pullback.
PYPL RSI 75.3 with a bearish MACD - the clearest momentum divergence in the index. Price at a new leg high while MACD has already rolled beneath its signal. Do not chase.

No death crosses are present among the 40 components - every name with a bearish 20/50 configuration still holds a 50 EMA above its 200 EMA, with the exceptions of TSLA, META, CEG and ISRG where the longer-term structure has already turned.


Events Calendar - Week of 10 August
Monday 10 August - Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast for July (16:00 UK); US Treasury 10-year note auction, $39bn (18:00 UK); July federal budget statement (19:00 UK).
Wednesday 12 August - July CPI, headline and core (13:30 UK) - the week's dominant event and the main risk to the current bid. Fed speakers Barkin and Schmid (15:00 UK). CSCO reports after the close - consensus around $1.17 EPS on roughly $9bn revenue; the stock closed at 121.43, above all three EMAs and 6.9%% from its high, so expectations are already elevated.
Thursday 13 August - July PPI, headline and core, and initial jobless claims (13:30 UK). Barkin again (19:00 UK). AMAT reports after the close - consensus near $3.39 EPS on about $9.01bn revenue; the stock closed +2.21%% at 539.14 and is pressing its 50 EMA, so this print is the swing factor for the whole semi-cap equipment group (LRCX, KLAC, AMAT).
Friday 14 August - July retail sales headline and ex-autos, industrial production and capacity utilisation, and preliminary August consumer sentiment.
Positioning note: with VIX at 14.89 and the index 3.1%% from a record, Wednesday's CPI is an asymmetric risk. A hot print into a low-volatility, low-volume rally is the scenario that breaks the 28,890 - 28,960 EMA shelf.


Report: 07 August 2026 22:00 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Thursday 6 August 2026
Data: Close 6 Aug 2026 | NAS100: 29373.33 | Change: -114.46 (-0.39%) | Range: 29123.38-29569.76


MARKET OVERVIEW
The NASDAQ 100 closed at 29373.33, down 114.46 points (-0.39%), a second consecutive down day after Tuesday's 3.3% surge to a fresh record. The session opened at 29224.37, ran to 29569.76 and faded into the close, printing a 446-point range against a 14-day ATR of 632.9 - a quiet, compressed day rather than a distribution day. Volume of 1.40bn was almost exactly the 20-day average (1.41bn), so there was no institutional urgency behind the fade.

Drivers: Treasury yields pushed higher across the curve - the 10-year up over 5bp to 4.668%, the 2-year up over 6bp to 4.241% and the 30-year at 5.211% - which pressured long-duration growth names. Offsetting that, risk appetite stayed firm on reports the US, Iran and Oman are close to a 60-day interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow shed 464 points (-0.85%) to 53885 and snapped its record win streak, the S&P 500 eased 0.18% to 7709.96, and the NASDAQ Composite was almost flat at 26348.35 (-0.06%). Tech held up better than the broad tape.

Volatility: VIX closed at 15.14, off the 15.83 open and near the low end of the last month's 14.96-20.88 band. There is no fear priced into this pullback.

Bias: Bullish, but stretched - the index remains 9.4% above its 200-day EMA and only 4.5% off the record 30762.20. This is a pause inside an intact uptrend, not a reversal. The immediate risk is event-driven: Non-Farm Payrolls land tomorrow morning.


TREND STRUCTURE
EMA stack (daily): Close 29373.33 > EMA20 28873.05 > EMA50 28853.46 > EMA200 26857.47. Perfect bullish alignment - price above all three, and the three in ascending order.

Separation: Price sits +1.7% above the 20 EMA, +1.8% above the 50 EMA and +9.4% above the 200 EMA. The 20 and 50 EMAs have converged to within 20 points of each other (28873 vs 28853), which is the signature of the multi-week consolidation that ran through late June and July before this month's breakout.

Structure: Higher highs and higher lows intact. The 3 August gap-and-go from 28776.80 to 29733.16 on 4 August (+3.3%) was the breakout leg; the last two sessions have retraced only 360 points of that 956-point advance - a shallow, orderly pullback holding well above the breakout shelf near 28800.

Phase: Stage 2 advance, early-to-mid stage of a fresh leg. Trend-following longs remain the higher-probability side while 28850 holds.


MOMENTUM INDICATORS
RSI(14): 54.4 - neutral. Notably, RSI is NOT overbought despite price sitting within 4.5% of the record. Momentum has cooled from the 4 August spike while price has barely given ground, which is constructive rather than a warning. No bearish divergence is present at the index level: the 4 August high in price was accompanied by rising RSI, and this week's minor lower high in price came with RSI still above its recent trough.

MACD: MACD line -71.5 vs signal -223.8, histogram +152.3 and expanding (prior day +131.1). Bullish crossover confirmed and widening. The MACD line is still below zero, which is the lagging artefact of the long summer consolidation - the crossover and rising histogram are the actionable signals, and both point higher. A move of the MACD line above zero in the next few sessions would confirm the regime change.

Volume: 1,404,545,256 versus a 20-day average of 1,407,704,565 - a relative volume of 1.00. The pullback is happening on entirely average participation. Sellers are not pressing.


KEY INDEX LEVELS
Resistance
R1 - 29570 to 29588 . session high 29569.76 sits right on the classic R1 at 29588. First hurdle; a close above opens the record retest.
R2 - 29802 to 29831 . classic R2 29802 plus the 4 August high 29831.40. This is the pivot high of the entire advance.
R3 - 30000 to 30034 . the 30000 round number stacked with classic R3 30034. Expect supply here. Record high 30762.20 above.

Support
S1 - 29123 to 29141 . session low 29123.38 with classic S1 29141. Must hold to keep the short-term bid.
S2 - 28853 to 28909 . the critical zone - classic S2 28909 stacked on EMA20 28873 and EMA50 28853. Triple confluence. Losing this flips the short-term structure.
S3 - 28695 to 28777 . classic S3 28695 with the 3 August close 28776.80 (the breakout shelf). Below here the August breakout is void.

Classic pivots: S2 28909 . S1 29141 . P 29355 . R1 29588 . R2 29802
Round numbers: 29000 . 29500 . 30000


COMPONENT SIGNALS - ALL 40
Sorted by daily change. Trend uses strict EMA classification: close versus each of the 20, 50 and 200 EMA.

TMUS 179.97 +3.75% . Bear (below all) . RSI 49.0 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -31.2% from 52w high . Below POC
PYPL 59.78 +3.19% . Bull (above all) . RSI 75.3 Overbought . MACD Bearish . -24.5% from 52w high . Above POC
DASH 213.26 +2.89% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.8 Strong . MACD Bullish . -25.3% from 52w high . Above POC
MSFT 499.86 +2.54% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.1 Overbought . MACD Bullish . -9.7% from 52w high . Above POC
QCOM 160.39 +1.82% . Bear (below all) . RSI 41.9 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -38.3% from 52w high . Below POC
AMD 489.28 +1.50% . Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) . RSI 47.8 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -16.3% from 52w high . Below POC
SNPS 405.98 +1.29% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 49.0 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -35.9% from 52w high . Below POC
COST 949.15 +0.76% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 50.4 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -13.4% from 52w high . Below POC
AVGO 420.57 +0.55% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.5 Strong . MACD Bullish . -15.0% from 52w high . Above POC
REGN 772.11 +0.46% . Bull (above all) . RSI 78.4 Overbought . MACD Bullish . -6.0% from 52w high . Above POC
AAPL 312.41 +0.45% . Mixed (below 20, above 50, above 200) . RSI 46.9 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -9.3% from 52w high . Above POC
CDNS 338.42 +0.40% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.2 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -18.8% from 52w high . Below POC
ADBE 260.24 +0.35% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 63.9 Strong . MACD Bullish . -29.8% from 52w high . Above POC
TXN 278.40 +0.25% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 45.3 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -16.7% from 52w high . Below POC
META 589.90 +0.19% . Bear (below all) . RSI 47.0 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -25.9% from 52w high . Below POC
KLAC 193.22 +0.19% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.5 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -37.1% from 52w high . Below POC
BKNG 207.39 +0.18% . Bull (above all) . RSI 69.5 Strong . MACD Bullish . -10.5% from 52w high . Above POC
ORLY 93.37 -0.07% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.8 Strong . MACD Bullish . -14.1% from 52w high . Above POC
ADI 377.31 -0.10% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.4 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -15.4% from 52w high . Below POC
AMZN 272.26 -0.14% . Bull (above all) . RSI 63.2 Strong . MACD Bullish . -5.2% from 52w high . Above POC
LIN 490.11 -0.19% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 39.5 Weak . MACD Bearish . -10.6% from 52w high . Below POC
NVDA 218.78 -0.20% . Bull (above all) . RSI 61.2 Strong . MACD Bullish . -7.5% from 52w high . Above POC
MRVL 210.54 -0.23% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, above 200) . RSI 49.6 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -36.2% from 52w high . Below POC
WDAY 170.24 -0.23% . Bull (above all) . RSI 66.1 Strong . MACD Bullish . -31.9% from 52w high . Above POC
ISRG 373.71 -0.40% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 49.2 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -38.1% from 52w high . Below POC
MAR 359.67 -0.45% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 43.7 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -12.5% from 52w high . Below POC
CSCO 120.88 -0.51% . Bull (above all) . RSI 60.1 Strong . MACD Bullish . -7.3% from 52w high . Above POC
LRCX 305.77 -0.54% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.2 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -30.3% from 52w high . Below POC
ABNB 151.64 -0.56% . Bull (above all) . RSI 58.6 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -3.1% from 52w high . Above POC
TSLA 319.53 -0.63% . Bear (below all) . RSI 36.9 Weak . MACD Bearish . -35.9% from 52w high . Below POC
NFLX 73.69 -0.69% . Mixed (above 20, below 50, below 200) . RSI 50.8 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -41.8% from 52w high . Below POC
PANW 359.49 -0.87% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.8 Strong . MACD Bullish . -4.6% from 52w high . Above POC
CRWD 207.39 -1.18% . Bull (above all) . RSI 62.8 Strong . MACD Bullish . -5.5% from 52w high . Above POC
AMAT 527.48 -1.27% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 48.2 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -28.7% from 52w high . Below POC
GOOGL 357.75 -1.29% . Bull (above all) . RSI 52.4 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -12.4% from 52w high . Below POC
MU 881.47 -1.31% . Bear (below 20/50) . RSI 47.9 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -29.8% from 52w high . Below POC
CEG 261.10 -1.52% . Bear (below all) . RSI 48.7 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -36.7% from 52w high . Below POC
INTU 321.91 -1.84% . Bull (above 20/50) . RSI 59.7 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -59.1% from 52w high . Above POC
FTNT 160.11 -2.45% . Bull (above all) . RSI 54.4 Neutral . MACD Bullish . -7.0% from 52w high . Above POC
MELI 1830.00 -4.81% . Mixed (below 20, above 50, below 200) . RSI 51.2 Neutral . MACD Bearish . -28.2% from 52w high . Above POC

Breadth: 17 advancers, 23 decliners. Trend split: 18 bullish, 14 bearish, 8 mixed. Only 16 of 40 are above all three EMAs.


SECTOR GROUPING
Mega-cap Tech (AAPL MSFT GOOGL AMZN META NVDA TSLA) . avg +0.13% . 4/7 above all EMAs . avg RSI 55.1
Carried by MSFT +2.54%. AAPL, META and TSLA are the drags - META and TSLA are both below all three EMAs. The mega-cap complex is no longer moving as one bloc, which is a maturing-trend signal.

Semiconductors (AVGO AMD QCOM TXN AMAT MU LRCX KLAC ADI MRVL) . avg +0.09% . 1/10 above all EMAs . avg RSI 48.2
The clear laggard group. Only AVGO is in a clean uptrend. Six of ten sit below both the 20 and 50 EMA while holding the 200 - a classic mid-trend correction, not a breakdown, but the group is not leading. AMAT -1.27% and MU -1.31% were the worst. Semis failing to confirm the index high is the single biggest structural caveat in this report.

Software / Cloud (ADBE INTU CRWD PANW FTNT SNPS CDNS WDAY CSCO) . avg -0.56% . 5/9 above all EMAs . avg RSI 58.0
Weakest sector on the day but strongest on trend quality - PANW, CRWD, FTNT, WDAY and CSCO all sit above all three EMAs with RSI in the 54-66 band. Today's softness was profit-taking (FTNT -2.45%, INTU -1.84%), not damage.

Consumer / Internet (COST NFLX BKNG MELI MAR ABNB DASH PYPL ORLY TMUS) . avg +0.42% . 5/10 above all EMAs . avg RSI 57.9
Best sector on the day. TMUS +3.75%, PYPL +3.19% and DASH +2.89% led, though TMUS's bounce came from below all three EMAs. MELI -4.81% on 2.88x relative volume was the day's outlier and dragged the average down.

Healthcare / Biotech (ISRG REGN) . avg +0.03% . 1/2 above all EMAs . avg RSI 63.8
REGN is the standout - above all EMAs, RSI 78.4, only 6.0% off its 52-week high. ISRG remains 38.1% below its high and stuck under the 50 and 200 EMA.

Industrial / Other (LIN CEG) . avg -0.85% . 0/2 above all EMAs . avg RSI 44.1
Both broken. CEG -1.52% on 1.65x volume after a 280.00 session high failed badly - it closed 261.10, near the low. LIN is below the 20 and 50 with RSI 39.5.


TOP SWING SETUPS


1. PANW - Long (breakout continuation)
Above all three EMAs with wide separation (EMA20 337.82, EMA50 309.90, EMA200 237.68), RSI 62.8, and only 4.6% below its 52-week high of 376.98 - the tightest of any name in the index outside ABNB. POC at 296.42 sits 17% below price, confirming the whole 60-day value area has been left behind.
Entry: 362.00 (above session high 361.47) . Stop: 351.50 (below classic S1 351.84, 0.67 ATR) . T1: 376.98 . T2: 385.00 . R:R: 1.43 / 2.19
Confluence: R1 364.31 is the only level between entry and the 52-week high. ATR 15.57 means a single average day covers the T1 distance.


2. CRWD - Long (52-week high retest)
Above all EMAs, RSI 62.8, 5.5% off the 219.35 high, and price is 45% above the 200 EMA at 142.90 - one of the strongest long-term structures in the index. Today's -1.18% was an inside-range fade on below-average volume (rv 0.81).
Entry: 208.00 (above session high 207.63) . Stop: 199.50 (below classic S2 199.71, 0.89 ATR) . T1: 219.35 . T2: 228.00 . R:R: 1.34 / 2.35
Confluence: POC 176.88 far below; EMA20 194.22 is the trailing stop reference on any deeper pullback.


3. AMZN - Long (record retest)
Above all EMAs, RSI 63.2, and just 5.2% from its 287.20 high - the closest mega-cap in the index to a record (NVDA -7.5%, AAPL -9.3%, MSFT -9.7%, GOOGL -12.4%). Today's -0.14% on 0.58 relative volume is a non-event. The 271.06-275.48 session range was the tightest in the mega-cap group.
Entry: 275.60 (above session high 275.48) . Stop: 266.00 (1.00 ATR, below classic S2 268.51) . T1: 287.20 . T2: 295.00 . R:R: 1.21 / 2.02
Confluence: Classic R1 274.81 already cleared at entry; R2 277.35 is the first check. EMA20 253.68 defines the invalidation of the wider trend.


4. DASH - Long (momentum continuation)
The day's second-strongest large-cap move, +2.89% on 2.23x relative volume - real institutional participation, not drift. Above all EMAs with price 10.5% above the EMA20 at 193.00 and 22.8% above POC 173.71. RSI 69.8 is the caution flag: this is extended.
Entry: 218.50 (above session high 218.03 and R1 218.47) . Stop: 210.00 (below Camarilla S3 210.28, 1.04 ATR) . T1: 228.00 . T2: 240.00 . R:R: 1.12 / 2.53
Confluence: R2 223.67 is the intermediate check. Size this one smaller - RSI near 70 with a 20 EMA 10% below means any failure retraces hard.


5. TSLA - Short (broken trend)
Below all three EMAs with the stack itself bearish: EMA20 341.19 < EMA50 368.68 < EMA200 387.83. RSI 36.9 is the weakest in the index. Price is 35.9% below its 52-week high and only 7.4% above the 52-week low of 297.38. POC sits at 391.03 - the entire 60-day value area is overhead supply.
Entry: 315.00 (below session low 315.52 and Camarilla S4 315.42) . Stop: 324.00 (above classic R2 326.83 is looser; 324 is 0.61 ATR) . T1: 305.00 . T2: 297.38 . R:R: 1.11 / 1.96
Confluence: MACD bearish, no support between 311.87 (S2) and the 52-week low. The risk is a broad-market squeeze on a Hormuz headline - keep the stop honest.


INTRADAY SETUPS


1. NVDA - Camarilla range long
Closed 218.78, wedged between Camarilla S1 218.17 and R1 219.39 - the textbook inside-range condition. Trend is bullish (above all EMAs) so favour the long side of the range.
Direction: Long . Entry: 217.00 (at Camarilla S3 216.96) . Stop: 214.90 (below Camarilla S4 215.13) . T1: 219.80 (pivot) . T2: 220.60 (Camarilla R3) . R:R: 1.33 / 1.71
Reasoning: Camarilla S3-R3 range trade with the trend. Invalidate on an S4 break, which would flip to a short toward classic S1 215.98.


2. GOOGL - POC reclaim long
Fell 1.29% to close 357.75, just below its 60-day POC of 360.07 and pinned between EMA20 352.16 and EMA50 353.89. The POC is the magnet - reclaiming it is the trigger.
Direction: Long . Entry: 356.00 (Camarilla S3 355.76 area) . Stop: 353.50 (below Camarilla S4 353.76) . T1: 359.74 (Camarilla R3, just under POC) . T2: 362.29 (classic R1) . R:R: 1.50 / 2.52
Reasoning: Camarilla range long into POC. The EMA20/EMA50 pair at 352-354 sits immediately under the stop, giving a hard structural floor.


3. AVGO - Camarilla breakout long
The only semiconductor above all three EMAs. Closed 420.57 mid-range after a 428.03 high. A push through Camarilla R4 is the breakout trigger.
Direction: Long . Entry: 430.20 (above Camarilla R4 430.07) . Stop: 425.00 (below Camarilla R3 425.32) . T1: 437.06 (classic R2) . T2: 445.00 . R:R: 1.32 / 2.85
Reasoning: Camarilla R4 breakouts run to R2/R3 when the daily trend agrees. Requires the semi group to stop lagging - if AMAT and MU are red again, skip it.


4. MELI - Camarilla fade short
The day's biggest mover, -4.81% on 2.88x relative volume - the heaviest distribution in the index. Closed 1830.00, back below EMA20 1839.67 and far below EMA200 1874.28.
Direction: Short . Entry: 1848.00 (at Camarilla R3 1848.47) . Stop: 1867.50 (above Camarilla R4 1866.94) . T1: 1809.75 (pivot) . T2: 1786.30 (classic S1) . R:R: 1.96 / 3.16
Reasoning: Fade the bounce into Camarilla R3 after a high-volume breakdown. MACD is bearish and the EMA200 at 1874 caps any recovery.


5. TSLA - Camarilla breakdown short
Below all EMAs, RSI 36.9, closed 319.53 at the bottom of a 315.52-323.00 range. A clean loss of Camarilla S4 opens the trend-day move.
Direction: Short . Entry: 315.20 (below Camarilla S4 315.42) . Stop: 319.60 (back inside the range) . T1: 311.87 (classic S2) . T2: 307.50 . R:R: 0.76 / 1.75
Reasoning: Camarilla S4 breakdowns are trend-day triggers. R:R to T1 is poor, so this is a runner - either take partials at S2 and trail, or skip it and use the daily swing short above instead.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD - TOP 5 WEIGHTS
Session H/L is today's range (6 Aug). All levels from the close of 6 August 2026.

NVDA - 218.78
Cam: S4 215.13 . S3 216.96 . S1 218.17 || R1 219.39 . R3 220.6 . R4 222.43
Classic: S3 209.35 . S2 213.17 . S1 215.98 . P 219.8 . R1 222.61 . R2 226.43 . R3 229.24
EMAs: 20 206.17 . 50 205.05 . 200 192.42 . POC: 209.32
Session H/L: 223.63 / 217 . 52w H/L: 236.54 / 164.07

MSFT - 499.86
Cam: S4 492.69 . S3 496.27 . S1 498.66 || R1 501.06 . R3 503.45 . R4 507.03
Classic: S3 478.69 . S2 483.61 . S1 491.73 . P 496.65 . R1 504.77 . R2 509.69 . R3 517.81
EMAs: 20 431.93 . 50 412.98 . 200 425.06 . POC: 407.31
Session H/L: 501.56 / 488.52 . 52w H/L: 553.72 / 349.2

AAPL - 312.41
Cam: S4 308.53 . S3 310.47 . S1 311.76 || R1 313.06 . R3 314.35 . R4 316.29
Classic: S3 301.94 . S2 305.58 . S1 309 . P 312.64 . R1 316.06 . R2 319.7 . R3 323.12
EMAs: 20 318.28 . 50 309.79 . 200 280.24 . POC: 306.04
Session H/L: 316.29 / 309.23 . 52w H/L: 344.57 / 205.59

AMZN - 272.26
Cam: S4 269.83 . S3 271.04 . S1 271.85 || R1 272.67 . R3 273.48 . R4 274.69
Classic: S3 265.97 . S2 268.51 . S1 270.39 . P 272.93 . R1 274.81 . R2 277.35 . R3 279.23
EMAs: 20 253.68 . 50 249.06 . 200 237.48 . POC: 249.13
Session H/L: 275.48 / 271.06 . 52w H/L: 287.2 / 196

GOOGL - 357.75
Cam: S4 353.76 . S3 355.76 . S1 357.09 || R1 358.41 . R3 359.74 . R4 361.74
Classic: S3 347.79 . S2 352.34 . S1 355.04 . P 359.59 . R1 362.29 . R2 366.84 . R3 369.54
EMAs: 20 352.16 . 50 353.89 . 200 322.06 . POC: 360.07
Session H/L: 364.13 / 356.88 . 52w H/L: 408.61 / 193.67


BEARISH WARNINGS
1. Semiconductor non-confirmation. Only 1 of 10 semis (AVGO) is above all three EMAs, and the group's average RSI is 48.2 versus 55-58 for mega-cap tech and software. The NASDAQ 100 has never sustained a leg higher for long without semis participating. AMAT (-1.27%), MU (-1.31%), KLAC and LRCX are all below the 20 and 50 EMA. Watch this.

2. Five names below all three EMAs. META (589.90, EMA200 627.69), TSLA (319.53, EMA200 387.83), QCOM (160.39, EMA200 171.81), TMUS (179.97, EMA200 198.48) and CEG (261.10, EMA200 288.73). TSLA is only 7.4% above its 52-week low and TMUS only 8.6% - the two closest to breaking down entirely.

3. Overbought without confirmation. PYPL closed +3.19% with RSI 75.3 but its MACD is still bearish (3.15 vs signal 3.19) - momentum and oscillator disagree, which usually resolves against the oscillator. MSFT (RSI 78.1) and REGN (RSI 78.4) are both overbought, though both have bullish MACD confirmation.

4. High-volume rejections. MELI -4.81% on 2.88x volume and CEG -1.52% on 1.65x volume after failing from a 280.00 high. These are the two clearest distribution signatures on the tape today.

5. Breadth is thin. 23 decliners to 17 advancers, and only 16 of 40 constituents are above all three EMAs, on a day the index sits 4.5% from a record. The advance is narrower than the headline suggests.

6. Rising yields. The 30-year at 5.211% and the 10-year at 4.668% are at 2026 highs. Long-duration growth multiples are the most sensitive part of this index to that move.

No death crosses were triggered today at either the index or the top-5 component level.


EVENTS CALENDAR
Friday 7 August - Non-Farm Payrolls, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET). The dominant event. With the 2-year already up 6bp today, a hot print pressures the whole long-duration complex; a soft print likely sends the index straight at 29588 and then the record. Expect thin, choppy conditions in the hour before the release.

Wednesday 12 August - US CPI, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET). Next week's main macro risk, and the more important of the two for the Fed path given where yields are.

Strait of Hormuz. An interim 60-day reopening deal has been reported as close for several sessions. Confirmation would be an oil-negative, risk-positive headline; collapse of the talks is the tail risk into the weekend.

Earnings. The bulk of NASDAQ 100 reporting is done. CSCO reports 19 August. AMAT and NVDA are the other two majors still to come later in the month - check exact dates with your broker, as they were not confirmed at the time of writing. No index-40 constituent reports before Monday.


SUMMARY
An orderly, low-conviction pullback inside a strong uptrend. The index gave back 0.39% on exactly average volume with VIX at 15.14 and RSI at a neutral 54.4 - none of that describes a top. The EMA stack is perfectly aligned and the 28853-28909 confluence sits 1.6% below as a well-defined line in the sand.

The caveat worth taking seriously is participation: only 16 of 40 constituents are above all three EMAs, and the semiconductor group - 1 of 10 above all EMAs - is not confirming. Leadership has rotated into software and consumer/internet names, which is fine as long as semis merely consolidate rather than break their 200 EMAs.

While 28850 holds, the path of least resistance is up. First target 29588, then 29802-29831, then the 30000 handle. Below 28850 the August breakout is in question and 28695 comes quickly. Payrolls tomorrow decides which.

Report: 6 August 2026 21:58 GMT . Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.