Last Updated: 25 August 2026
Costco is finishing fiscal 2026 with its best sales year in a decade. Net sales through the first 48 weeks are up 10.1%, comparable sales are running near 9%, digital is compounding above 20%, and the company has just entered the Medicare Advantage market. It is also one of the most expensively rated large-cap retailers in the world, at roughly 49 times trailing earnings against Target on 17 and BJ's on 22. This report sets out what the filings show, without ratings or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | COST, Nasdaq Global Select Market |
| Sector | Consumer staples — membership warehouse club retail |
| Headquarters | Issaquah, Washington, United States |
| Fiscal year | 52 or 53 weeks ending the Sunday nearest 31 August; FY2026 ends 30 August 2026 and has not yet been reported |
| CEO / Leadership | Ron M. Vachris (President & Chief Executive Officer since 1 January 2024); Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer; Hamilton E. James, non-executive Chairman |
| Employees | Approximately 341,000 worldwide (FY2025 Form 10-K): 223,000 in the United States, 55,000 in Canada, 63,000 in other international markets |
| Revenue (FY2025, 52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $275,235m total revenue, comprising $269,912m of net sales and $5,323m of membership fees |
| Net income (FY2025) | Operating income $10,383m; GAAP diluted EPS $18.21 |
| Warehouses open | 933 worldwide as at 5 August 2026, including 641 in the United States and Puerto Rico and 115 in Canada |
| Paid members | 82.9 million paid households and approximately 149 million cardholders at Q3 FY2026, with 41.2 million Executive memberships |
| Market capitalisation (25 Aug 2026) | Approximately $430.8bn at $971.40 per share |
| Dividend | $1.47 per quarter, $5.88 annualised, raised 13.1% in April 2026 |
| Most recent results | Q3 FY2026, twelve weeks ended 10 May 2026, reported 28 May 2026 |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Sales are accelerating, not decelerating: Net sales over the first 48 weeks of FY2026 reached $273.55bn, up 10.1%, with Q3 FY2026 net sales up 11.6% and total comparable sales up 9.8%. This is Costco's strongest growth run in years and it is coming from a $275bn base.
- Membership fees are almost pure profit: FY2025 membership fee income of $5,323m sits against $10,383m of total operating income, so more than half of operating profit is a subscription with essentially no cost of goods. Fee income grew 10.7% in Q3 FY2026 to $1,373m.
- Executive membership is growing twice as fast as the base: Executive memberships reached 41.2 million at Q3 FY2026, up 9.6%, against total paid member growth of 4.1%. Executive members accounted for 73.6% of worldwide net sales in FY2025 and pay double the annual fee.
- Digital is compounding at more than double the group rate: Digitally enabled comparable sales grew 21.5% in Q3 FY2026 and 21.2% across the first 48 weeks, roughly 2.5 times the total-company rate, and e-commerce operations were extended to China during FY2026.
- The balance sheet is a fortress: At 10 May 2026 Costco held $19,996m of cash and short-term investments against $5,670m of total debt, a net cash position of $14,326m, and generated $11,133m of operating cash flow in 36 weeks.
Bear Case
- The valuation prices in perfection, and the company says so: The FY2025 10-K states directly that the share price "reflects high market expectations for our future operating results" and that any failure to meet them could cause the price to decline. At approximately 49 times trailing and 43 times forward earnings, against Target on 17 and Walmart on 38, there is little margin for error.
- Growth is coming from the lowest-margin parts of the business: Q3 FY2026 gross margin fell 21 basis points to 11.04% and core-on-core margin fell 9 basis points. Record gasoline volumes and gold bullion inflate revenue and comparable sales while diluting margin percentage; the 10-K notes explicitly that higher gasoline penetration lowers gross margin.
- Membership growth is slowing and renewal rates have slipped: Paid members grew only 4.1% against roughly 11% revenue growth, and both the US and Canada renewal rate of 92.2% and the worldwide rate of 89.7% sit below the FY2025 year-end levels of 92.3% and 89.8%. The September 2024 fee increase is now fully lapped and no further rise has been announced.
- Warehouse openings are running behind plan: The FY2025 10-K guided to up to 35 openings including five relocations in FY2026. With four weeks of the fiscal year left, Costco has added only 19 net new warehouses, from 914 to 933.
- The tariff windfall is contested and may never reach earnings: After the Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, Costco became eligible for refunds, and is now facing a proposed class action in the Western District of Washington alleging it raised prices to pass on those duties. Management says refunds will be recycled into lower prices rather than repaid, which means they do not fall to profit either.
3. Business Segments
Costco reports three geographic segments. The table below shows FY2025 total revenue including membership fees, taken from the segment note in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| United States Operations | 72.7% ($200,046m) | 641 warehouses across the US and Puerto Rico plus costco.com; operating income $6,878m, a 3.44% margin |
| Canadian Operations | 13.4% ($36,923m) | 115 warehouses; the most profitable segment on margin, with operating income of $1,849m at 5.01% |
| Other International Operations | 13.9% ($38,266m) | 177 warehouses across Mexico, Japan, the UK, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Sweden, Iceland and New Zealand; operating income $1,656m at 4.33% |
By merchandise category, FY2025 net sales of $269,912m split as follows: Foods and Sundries $109,564m or 40.6%; Non-Foods $71,190m or 26.4%; Fresh Foods $37,988m or 14.1%; and warehouse ancillary and other businesses $51,170m or 19.0%, which covers petrol stations, pharmacy, optical, hearing aids, tyre fitting, the food court, e-commerce, business centres and travel. Core merchandise grew 10% in FY2025 while ancillary and other grew only 2%, because an 8% fall in the average price per gallon of fuel cut net sales by $2,329m.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Costco is a subscription business wearing the clothes of a retailer. It sells merchandise at a deliberately thin mark-up — gross margin was 11.04% in Q3 FY2026, roughly a third of a conventional supermarket — and takes its profit from the annual membership fee. FY2025 membership fee income of $5,323m against operating income of $10,383m means the fee, which carries no cost of goods, supplies more than half of operating profit. Every merchandising decision therefore optimises for member renewal rather than for gross margin on the item itself.
The moat is a self-reinforcing cost loop. Limited assortment, roughly a tenth of the stock-keeping units of a supermarket, concentrates purchasing volume into very large orders, which secures supplier terms nobody with a wider range can match. Pallet-based merchandising in an unfinished warehouse strips out labour and fixture cost. Those savings are handed back as price, which drives volume, which improves terms again. Renewal rates of 92.2% in the US and Canada are the visible output of that loop, and they are the hardest number in retail for a competitor to attack, because matching Costco on price means matching it on scale first.
Kirkland Signature and the margin offset. The FY2025 10-K states Costco expects to keep increasing private-label penetration and that Kirkland products generally earn higher margins than national brands. This is the principal structural offset to the drag from low-margin ancillary lines such as fuel and gold bullion, and it also deepens the moat, because a Kirkland item cannot be price-compared anywhere else.
What the model gives up. The same design that makes Costco defensible makes it slow. Growth requires physical warehouses, which cost capital and time: capital expenditure was $5,498m in FY2025 and is guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026. The 10-K itself warns that as the base grows and desirable sites become harder to secure, square footage growth becomes a comparatively less substantial component of growth.
5. Financial Health
Figures below are from Costco's Form 10-K filings and quarterly earnings releases, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Note that FY2023 was a 53-week year, which flatters its growth rate slightly. Long-term debt is the non-current balance at each fiscal year end.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (52 weeks to 29 Aug 2021) | 195,929 | +17.5% | $11.27 | $11.27† | $2.98 regular plus $10.00 special | $6,692m |
| FY2022 (52 weeks to 28 Aug 2022) | 226,954 | +15.8% | $13.14 | $13.14† | $3.38 | $6,484m |
| FY2023 (53 weeks to 3 Sep 2023) | 242,290 | +6.8% | $14.16 | $14.16† | $3.84 | $5,377m |
| FY2024 (52 weeks to 1 Sep 2024) | 254,453 | +5.0% | $16.56 | $16.56† | $4.36 regular plus $15.00 special | $5,794m |
| FY2025 (52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | 275,235 | +8.2% | $18.21 | $18.21† | $4.92 | $5,713m |
† Costco does not report an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings per share figure. Every quarterly and annual release presents GAAP net income and GAAP basic and diluted EPS only, so the GAAP figure is repeated in the adjusted column. The sole non-GAAP measure Costco discloses is comparable sales excluding the effects of petrol prices and foreign exchange. Management occasionally identifies discrete items — a $63m tax benefit in Q4 FY2024, a $72m stock-compensation tax benefit in Q1 FY2026 — but does not restate EPS for them.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (12 weeks to 10 May 2026) | $70,527m | $4.93† | $4.93 |
| Q2 FY2026 (12 weeks to 15 Feb 2026) | $69,597m | $4.58† | $4.58 |
| Q1 FY2026 (12 weeks to 23 Nov 2025) | $67,307m | $4.50† | $4.50 |
| Q4 FY2025 (16 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $86,156m | $5.87† | $5.87 |
| Q3 FY2025 (12 weeks to 11 May 2025) | $63,205m | $4.28† | $4.28 |
| FY2025 total (52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $275,235m | $18.21† | $18.21 |
Costco's fourth quarter runs sixteen weeks rather than twelve, which is why Q4 FY2025 revenue and EPS are so much larger than the surrounding quarters. Comparable sales in Q3 FY2026 were 9.8% reported and 6.6% adjusted for petrol and currency, with the United States at 9.4% reported, Canada at 10.7% and other international at 11.2%.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 net cash from operating activities was $13,335m, capital expenditure $5,498m and depreciation and amortisation $2,426m, giving free cash flow of $7,837m. Through the first 36 weeks of FY2026 operating cash flow reached $11,133m against $9,468m a year earlier, with capital expenditure of $4,228m and depreciation and amortisation of $1,791m. At 10 May 2026 Costco held $18,946m of cash and $1,050m of short-term investments against $5,670m of long-term debt and no current portion, a net cash position of $14,326m. Total equity was $33,509m and total assets $86,430m.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately $430.8bn (443,478,804 shares at $971.40) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | 48.9x on trailing twelve-month diluted EPS of $19.88, built from the four reported quarters (Q4 FY2025 $5.87 plus Q1 FY2026 $4.50 plus Q2 FY2026 $4.58 plus Q3 FY2026 $4.93). Data aggregators quote 47.6x using an EPS figure of $20.40 that does not reconcile to the filings; the computed figure is used here. |
| P/E (forward) | 42.9x |
| P/S (TTM) | 1.47x (market cap $430.8bn / trailing twelve-month total revenue $293,587m) |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $416.5bn (market cap $430.8bn plus total debt $5.67bn less cash and short-term investments $20.0bn, per the 10 May 2026 balance sheet). Costco is in a net cash position, so enterprise value sits below market cap. |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 30.2x. EBITDA is trailing operating income of $11,225m plus trailing depreciation and amortisation of $2,565m, giving $13,790m. Both trailing figures are built as FY2025 less the prior-year 36 weeks plus the current 36 weeks, using the DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization total from the cash flow statement. |
| P/FCF | 48.9x (market cap $430.8bn / free cash flow $8.81bn, where FCF is trailing operating cash flow of $15,000m less capital expenditure of $6,194m). On the FY2025 full year alone, FCF of $7,837m implies 55.0x. |
| Price/book | 12.9x (market cap $430.8bn / total equity $33.5bn at 10 May 2026) |
| Dividend yield | 0.61% ($5.88 annualised at $971.40), following a 13.1% increase in April 2026 |
| 52-week high | $1,096.50 |
| 52-week low | $844.06 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 1.74% (7,655,966 shares short against a 440.9m free float, settlement date 31 July 2026, up roughly 5% on the prior report) |
| Days to cover | 3.33 days on average trading volume, same settlement date |
Capital expenditure is guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026, above the trailing figure used above, so free cash flow conversion may tighten before it improves. Readers can chart these multiples themselves on the ChartsView live charts.
7. What Are They Building
Warehouse expansion. Costco opened 27 warehouses including three relocations in FY2025 and planned up to 35 including five relocations in FY2026. The count has moved from 914 at the end of FY2025 to 933 as at 5 August 2026, with openings this year including New Braunfels in Texas, Monterrey in Mexico, Syracuse in Utah, Pensacola in Florida, Chandler in Arizona and Kaohsiung in Taiwan. Management has framed the run rate as thirty-plus openings a year, with roughly 28 planned for fiscal 2027, funded by capital expenditure guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026.
Digital and e-commerce. Digitally enabled comparable sales grew 21.5% in Q3 FY2026 and 21.2% across the first 48 weeks. Costco renamed the metric from e-commerce to digitally enabled during FY2026 to capture app and site influenced warehouse transactions as well as pure online orders. E-commerce now operates in nine countries, with China added during FY2026. Costco Next, the curated direct-from-manufacturer marketplace, continues to widen assortment without carrying inventory risk, and Costco Logistics handles final-mile delivery and installation for appliances, furniture and televisions.
Healthcare is the newest leg. Pharmacy was singled out on the Q3 FY2026 call for significant market share gains, driven by GLP-1 demand with Wegovy and Ozempic added to the Member Prescription Program, competitively priced pet medicines, acceptance of Medicare Part D over-the-counter flex cards, and expanded mail-order and specialty pharmacy. On 18 August 2026 Costco announced a first-of-its-kind partnership with SCAN Health Plan to launch Medicare Advantage products in two states and a Medicare supplement plan in a third, pending regulatory approval, stitching pharmacy, optical and hearing-aid services into an integrated senior health offering.
Petrol and bullion. Both are deliberate low-margin traffic drivers that swing reported comparable sales heavily. The final five weeks of Q3 FY2026 were the five highest-volume petrol weeks in Costco's history as members chased cheaper fuel during Middle East conflict. Gold bullion, sold as 99.99% pure one-ounce bars from LBMA-approved refiners, routinely sells out within hours; as at 21 August 2026 it was out of stock online while available in 186 US warehouses.
Membership engineering. Executive memberships reached 41.2 million, growing at more than twice the rate of total membership, and the FY2025 10-K discloses new exclusive early shopping hours for US Executive members to justify the $130 tier. Executive 2% rewards reduced FY2025 net sales by $3,007m. Membership card scanners have been rolled out at warehouse entrances across the US to convert card-sharing into paid memberships.
8. Competitive Landscape
Costco competes with general merchandise retailers, grocers, online marketplaces and two direct warehouse-club rivals. Market capitalisations below were pulled on 25 August 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | $2,826.8bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $775.7bn, the only competitor larger than Costco by revenue and by far the largest by market value |
| Walmart (WMT) | $847.5bn | FY2026 revenue up 4.7%, with worldwide membership fee income up 15.5% to $4.4bn; Sam's Club US net sales of $93.0bn, up 3.1%, after raising its base club fee to $60 on 1 April 2026 |
| Target (TGT) | $77.2bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $107.7bn on a trailing multiple of 17.2x, roughly a third of Costco's rating |
| Kroger (KR) | $36.2bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $148.6bn, with a forward multiple of 10.7x against a trailing 34.0x |
| BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) | $12.6bn | Q2 FY2026 reported 21 August 2026: comparable club sales up 11.9%, membership fee income $135.6m, a record 8.5 million members and diluted EPS up 19.3% to $1.36 |
Costco's trailing twelve-month revenue of $293.6bn is roughly 3.2 times Sam's Club in the United States and about 12.9 times BJ's. The competitive point worth noting is that BJ's just posted stronger comparable sales than Costco and Walmart's membership income is growing faster, so the warehouse-club channel as a whole is strong rather than Costco alone.
9. Insider Activity
Costco is led by Ron M. Vachris as President and Chief Executive Officer, a role he took on 1 January 2024 after serving as President and Chief Operating Officer, with Gary Millerchip as Chief Financial Officer since March 2024 and Hamilton E. James as non-executive Chairman. Thirteen Form 4 filings were made during 2026 to date. Every non-derivative disposition carried the Rule 10b5-1 affirmation flag unchecked, meaning none was reported as made under a pre-arranged trading plan. There were no open-market purchases by any insider during 2026; total open-market selling came to 6,623 shares for roughly $6.33m, with a further 10,664 shares given away.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey S. Raikes | 10 Jul 2026 | Gift to a non-profit foundation | 5,249 | n/a | No cash proceeds | Charitable, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Kenneth D. Denman | 23 Jun 2026 | Open-market sale | 885 | $957.45 weighted average | $847,346 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Caton Frates | 01 Apr 2026 | Open-market sale | 700 | $993.00 | $695,100 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Gary Millerchip | 11 Mar 2026 | Shares withheld for tax on RSU vesting | 1,154 | $992.23 | $1,145,073 | Equity compensation, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Claudine Adamo | 09 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 730 | $1,003.02 | $732,205 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Teresa A. Jones | 21 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 850 | $986.26 weighted average | $838,318 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| James C. Klauer | 14 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 1,500 | $939.00 | $1,408,500 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Russell D. Miller | 09 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 1,500 | $916.32 | $1,374,480 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
Sales clustered between $916 and $1,003, below the 52-week high of $1,096.50. Gina M. Raimondo received an initial director restricted stock unit grant of 215 shares on 16 January 2026, vesting one third from 22 October 2026.
10. Key Risks
- Valuation risk, disclosed by the company itself: The FY2025 10-K states that the share price reflects high market expectations and that any failure or delay in meeting them, including on comparable sales, membership fee revenue, renewal rates, gross margin, earnings or new warehouse openings, could cause the price to decline. The Q3 FY2026 reaction proved the point: an 11.6% sales beat with 15% EPS growth still saw the shares fall because core gross margin slipped 9 basis points.
- Gross margin pressure from an adverse mix: Q3 FY2026 gross margin of 11.04% was 21 basis points lower year on year, with core-on-core down 9 basis points on weaker fresh margins and deliberate price investment. The current sales acceleration is disproportionately petrol, gold and ancillary driven, and the 10-K confirms that higher petrol penetration lowers the gross margin percentage.
- Membership saturation and renewal-rate erosion: Paid members grew only 4.1% against roughly 11% revenue growth. The US and Canada renewal rate of 92.2% and worldwide rate of 89.7% are both below FY2025 year-end levels, which the 10-K attributes to a higher share of memberships sold online renewing at slightly lower rates. Because fee income is almost entirely incremental profit, any slippage hits earnings close to dollar for dollar.
- Tariff litigation and refund uncertainty: A proposed class action filed in the Western District of Washington in April 2026 alleges Costco raised prices to pass on IEEPA tariffs and is now claiming refunds without repaying members, with claims for unjust enrichment and Washington Consumer Protection Act violations covering purchases between 1 February 2025 and 24 February 2026. Costco's stated position is that refunds will be recycled into lower prices.
- Competition from larger and faster-growing rivals: Amazon at $2.83trn and Walmart at $847bn are both bigger and both accelerating in subscription retail, Walmart's membership fee income grew 15.5% against Costco's roughly 10%, Sam's Club raised its base fee to $60 in April 2026 narrowing Costco's premium, and BJ's just posted comparable sales of 11.9% with record membership.
- International and currency exposure: Around 27% of FY2025 revenue and roughly 32% of operating income came from outside the United States, and currency movements cut FY2025 net sales by $1,943m or 78 basis points. Costco does not hedge translation exposure, and the non-US segments carry the higher operating margins, so swings hit profit disproportionately.
- Expansion execution and cannibalisation: The 10-K flags failing to meet warehouse opening targets and cannibalising existing locations as specific risks, and warns that square footage growth becomes a less substantial growth component as desirable sites get harder to secure. Costco has opened only 19 net new warehouses in 48 weeks against a plan of up to 35 openings.
- Structural cost inflation: The 10-K singles out healthcare and utility expenses as partially outside the company's control, and the March 2025 rise in the US and Canada starting wage to at least $20.00 an hour across 341,000 employees institutionalises labour cost growth. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 11 basis points as a share of net sales in FY2025.
11. Recent Developments
- 20 Feb 2026 — The Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump the court ruled the tariffs unlawful and they were subsequently terminated by executive order, making Costco, which had itself sued for refunds in December 2025, eligible to reclaim duties paid.
- 05 Mar 2026 — Q2 FY2026 results. Net sales rose 9.1% to $68.24bn with diluted EPS up 13.9% to $4.58 and total comparable sales of 7.4%, or 6.7% adjusted, with digital comparable sales of 22.6%.
- 02 Apr 2026 — Proposed class action filed over tariff refunds. Seven members from four states sued in the Western District of Washington alleging Costco raised prices to pass on tariffs and is now seeking refunds without repaying members; Costco's position is that refunds will fund lower future prices.
- 15 Apr 2026 — Quarterly dividend raised 13.1%. The board lifted the quarterly payment from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, an annualised $5.88, paid on 15 May 2026 to holders of record on 1 May 2026.
- 28 May 2026 — Q3 FY2026 delivers the strongest quarter in years. Net sales rose 11.6% to $69.15bn, diluted EPS 15.2% to $4.93 and total comparable sales 9.8%, driven by record petrol volumes and pharmacy share gains, though the shares fell on a 9 basis point decline in core-on-core gross margin.
- 08 Jul 2026 — June sales and a further dividend declaration. Net sales for the five weeks reached $29.24bn, up 10.6%, with US comparable sales of 10.6%, and a dividend of $1.47 was declared for payment on 7 August 2026.
- 05 Aug 2026 — July sales keep the double-digit run going. Four-week net sales of $23.12bn were up 10.7% with total comparable sales of 8.9%, taking FY2026 net sales through 48 weeks to $273.55bn, up 10.1%.
- 18 Aug 2026 — Costco entered the Medicare Advantage market. A first-of-its-kind partnership with SCAN Health Plan, one of the largest non-profit Medicare Advantage insurers, will launch Medicare Advantage products in two states and a Medicare supplement plan in a third, pending regulatory approval.
- 21 Aug 2026 — BJ's Wholesale raised guidance on 11.9% comparable sales. The rival club operator reported record membership of 8.5 million and 19.3% diluted EPS growth, confirming that the warehouse-club channel as a whole is running hot.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 30 Aug 2026 — End of the 52-week fiscal year 2026. The final four-week sales period closes on this date and will be disclosed with the annual results rather than in a separate monthly release.
- 24 Sep 2026 — Q4 and full-year FY2026 results, with the earnings call at 2.00pm Pacific Time. This date is confirmed on Costco's own investor events page.
- Expected Oct 2026 — FY2026 Form 10-K filing, following the pattern of the FY2025 10-K filed on 8 October 2025.
- Expected Oct 2026 — September monthly sales release and the next quarterly dividend declaration, historically issued together in mid-October, with payment expected in November 2026.
- Expected Dec 2026 — Proxy statement filing ahead of the annual meeting, following the FY2025 proxy filed on 4 December 2025.
- Expected Jan 2027 — Annual meeting of shareholders. The FY2025 meeting was held virtually on 15 January 2026, at which ten directors were elected and a shareholder proposal on greenwashing risk was defeated.
- TBC — Regulatory approval of the SCAN Health Plan Medicare partnership announced on 18 August 2026; no decision date has been published.
- TBC — Progress in the proposed tariff refund class action in the Western District of Washington; no hearing date has been published.
No special dividend has been declared in 2025 or 2026. Costco's last special was $15.00 per share declared in December 2023, and before that $10.00 per share in fiscal 2021, so the cadence is irregular rather than scheduled. Scheduled macroeconomic releases are listed on the ChartsView economic calendar, and readers can discuss this research in the ChartsView forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 25 August 2026
Comcast is in the middle of dismantling itself. In January 2026 it spun off its cable networks as Versant Media Group; in June 2026 it announced it will spin off NBCUniversal and Sky as well, leaving a pure-play connectivity company behind. Underneath that structural noise the operating picture is unusually clean: broadband subscribers are still shrinking, wireless is growing faster than it ever has, Peacock has just turned its first quarterly profit, and the shares trade on roughly eight times trailing GAAP earnings. This report sets out what the filings actually say, without ratings or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Comcast Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | CMCSA, Nasdaq Global Select Market |
| Sector | Communication services — cable connectivity, media, studios and theme parks |
| Headquarters | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States |
| CEO / Leadership | Brian L. Roberts (Chairman & Co-Chief Executive Officer) and Michael J. Cavanagh (Co-Chief Executive Officer); Jason S. Armstrong, Chief Financial Officer |
| Employees | Approximately 179,000 on a full-time-equivalent basis (FY2025 Form 10-K; includes Versant staff pre-spin) |
| Revenue (FY2025, year to 31 Dec 2025) | $123,707m, essentially flat year on year |
| Net income attributable to Comcast (FY2025) | $19,998m, including a $7.1bn after-tax gain on the Hulu stake sale |
| GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025) | $5.39 |
| Adjusted EPS (FY2025) | $4.31 |
| Market capitalisation (25 Aug 2026) | Approximately $95.9bn at $27.02 per share |
| Shares outstanding | 3,539,192,198 Class A plus 9,444,375 Class B (10-Q cover page, 15 Jul 2026) |
| Dividend | $0.33 per quarter, $1.32 annualised, held flat for 2026 |
| Homes and businesses passed | More than 65 million |
| Most recent results | Q2 2026, quarter ended 30 June 2026, reported 23 July 2026 |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Sum-of-the-parts unlock: Two spin-offs in eighteen months separate a slow-growing but hugely cash-generative connectivity utility from a volatile media business. The shares rose more than 20% pre-market on the 29 June 2026 announcement, which is the market's own verdict on how much conglomerate discount had accumulated.
- Wireless is compounding fast off a tiny base: Domestic wireless lines crossed 10 million in Q2 2026 with a record 448,000 net adds, the third consecutive record quarter. Penetration is still only around 7% of addressable lines in the footprint and roughly 16% of Comcast's own broadband customers, and the lines run on leased Verizon and T-Mobile capacity, so incremental margin is high.
- Peacock has crossed into profit: Peacock delivered adjusted EBITDA of positive $189m in Q2 2026, a $290m swing from a $101m loss a year earlier, on 48 million paid subscribers and $1.9bn of quarterly revenue. Losses that consumed over $700m of improvement in FY2025 alone have now inflected.
- Cash generation is genuinely large relative to the price: FY2025 free cash flow was a record $19,235m against a market capitalisation of roughly $95.9bn. Even on the trailing twelve months to June 2026 the business converted around $32.5bn of operating cash flow.
- Business Services is the quiet compounder: Q2 2026 revenue of $2,671m grew 3.7% with adjusted EBITDA up 5.0% and margin expanding 60 basis points to 56.7% — a segment growing profitably while the consumer side fights for volume.
Bear Case
- The core product is still losing customers: Domestic residential broadband customers have fallen from 29,373k at end-2024 to 28,486k at 30 June 2026. Q2 2026 lost another 167,000, an improvement of only 34,000 year on year, and domestic broadband revenue actually fell 5.5% to $6,280m.
- Competitors are winning the same customers: Verizon added 348,000 broadband customers in Q2 2026 and AT&T added over one million advanced connectivity customers in the same quarter, while Comcast and Charter both lost subscribers. Fixed wireless and subsidised fibre overbuild are structural, not cyclical.
- Capital returns have been curtailed on both sides: The dividend was held flat in January 2026 for the first time in eighteen years, and the buyback that shrank the share count 5% during 2025 was paused on 29 June 2026 pending the separation.
- Two concurrent separations carry real execution and tax risk: Comcast has already disclosed the risk of significant tax liability if the Versant separation is not treated as tax-free, and transaction costs ran to $483m in FY2025. The NBCUniversal and Sky spin adds regulatory approval, financing and debt-allocation risk on top.
- 2027 faces a brutal event comparison: The first half of 2026 carried the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, Super Bowl LX and the FIFA World Cup. None of those recur in 2027, and the roughly $2.5bn a year of NBA rights cost stays.
3. Business Segments
Comcast realigned its reporting segments with effect from Q1 2026. Media now excludes Versant's historical results, regional sports networks moved to Corporate & Other, and Xumo moved into Residential Connectivity & Platforms. The table below therefore uses the first half of 2026, which is the most recent period reported on the current segment basis, drawn from Comcast's Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings releases. Percentages are of consolidated revenue of $61,396m for the six months.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Residential Connectivity & Platforms | 56.2% ($34,447m) | Consumer broadband, wireless, video, voice and Xumo across the domestic cable footprint plus Sky's international connectivity and television |
| Business Services Connectivity | 8.7% ($5,311m) | Broadband, voice, wireless and enterprise networking sold to small, medium and large businesses |
| Media | 21.1% ($12,971m) | NBC and Telemundo broadcast, remaining cable networks, Peacock streaming and advertising sales |
| Studios | 10.5% ($6,466m) | Universal Pictures, Focus Features, DreamWorks Animation and Universal television production and licensing |
| Theme Parks | 7.7% ($4,744m) | Universal Destinations & Experiences parks and resorts in Orlando, Hollywood, Japan, Beijing, Las Vegas and Texas |
| Corporate & Other and eliminations | Net negative after eliminations | Regional sports networks, corporate overhead, and the elimination of inter-segment content licensing |
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. The bulk of Comcast's profit comes from selling recurring monthly connectivity over a hybrid fibre-coaxial network that reaches more than 65 million homes and businesses. That network was built decades ago and is being upgraded incrementally rather than rebuilt, so the marginal cost of an additional subscriber is small and the incremental margin on price is very high. Residential Connectivity & Platforms alone supplied 56% of first-half 2026 revenue. Around this core sit three cyclical, hit-driven businesses — Media, Studios and Theme Parks — that consume capital and produce lumpy returns.
The moat, and where it is eroding. The durable advantage is the sunk cost of the physical plant: replicating a passing network across tens of millions of homes costs tens of billions and takes a decade. That advantage held for twenty years. It is now being attacked from two directions at once — fixed wireless access riding on spare mobile capacity, which has near-zero incremental build cost, and government-subsidised fibre overbuild inside Comcast's own footprint, which removes the economics that used to deter entrants. The 10-K names both explicitly.
The convergence answer. Comcast's response is to bundle wireless with broadband, using mobile virtual network operator agreements with Verizon and, from 2026 for business, T-Mobile. This lets Comcast sell mobile without owning spectrum, and the evidence is that it works as a retention tool: wireless lines grew from 7,826k at end-2024 to 10,187k by June 2026. The trade-off is that broadband average revenue is falling, because the go-to-market pivot to simplified everyday pricing with a five-year price guarantee buys volume with price.
Content as a scale business. Media and Studios rest on the economics of sports and franchise rights, where the cost is fixed and the return depends entirely on reach. The eleven-year NBA and WNBA agreement worth roughly $27bn, Sunday Night Football, the Premier League and the Olympics all follow the same logic. It is a real moat where rights are exclusive and long, and a real liability when audiences fragment faster than the contract amortises.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from Comcast's own quarterly earnings releases and Form 10-K filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance at each fiscal year end. Comcast reports adjusted EPS, which excludes amortisation of acquisition-related intangibles, investment gains and losses and certain other items.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 116,385 | +12.4% | $3.04 | $3.23 | $1.00 | $92,718m |
| FY2022 | 121,427 | +4.3% | $1.21 | $3.64 | $1.08 | $93,068m |
| FY2023 | 121,572 | +0.1% | $3.71 | $3.98 | $1.16 | $95,021m |
| FY2024 | 123,731 | +1.8% | $4.14 | $4.33 | $1.24 | $94,186m |
| FY2025 | 123,707 | −0.02% | $5.39 | $4.31 | $1.32 | $92,979m |
Two distortions matter. FY2022 GAAP EPS of $1.21 is depressed by an $8,583m goodwill and long-lived asset impairment, overwhelmingly against Sky. FY2025 GAAP EPS of $5.39 is inflated by a $7.1bn after-tax gain on the sale of the Hulu stake to Disney, which is why GAAP EPS rose 30% while adjusted EPS fell 0.6%. The FY2024 to FY2025 dividend figures are confirmed against the SEC XBRL tag CommonStockDividendsPerShareDeclared, and the FY2024 and FY2025 long-term debt balances against LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) | $29,940m | $1.04 | $0.99 |
| Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | $31,457m | $0.79 | $0.60 |
| Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | $32,310m | $0.84 | $0.60 |
| Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)† | $31,198m | $1.12 | $0.90 |
| Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025) | $30,313m | $1.25 | $2.98 |
| FY2025 total (to 31 Dec 2025) | $123,707m | $4.31 | $5.39 |
† Q3 2025 revenue is derived by subtracting the reported fourth quarter and first half from the reported full year; the EPS figures are as reported. Q2 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.98 contains the Hulu gain and is not comparable.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 net cash from operating activities was $33,643m, capital expenditure $11,750m, cash paid for capitalised software and other intangibles $2,658m, and depreciation and amortisation $16,210m. Free cash flow on Comcast's own definition was a record $19,235m, helped by cash taxes falling to $755m from $7,096m after an internal reorganisation. At 30 June 2026 total debt was $90,381m ($84,264m non-current plus $6,117m current) against cash of $7,661m, so net debt was approximately $82,720m. Total equity was $89,770m and total assets $257,548m. Debt fell $8.6bn during the first half of 2026 as $7,344m was repaid against only $1,990m of new borrowing.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately $95.9bn (3,548.6m shares across both classes at $27.02) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | 8.7x on trailing twelve-month GAAP EPS of $3.09 (Q3 2025 $0.90 plus Q4 2025 $0.60 plus Q1 2026 $0.60 plus Q2 2026 $0.99). On trailing adjusted EPS of $3.79 the same market cap implies 7.1x. |
| P/E (forward) | Approximately 7.5x |
| P/S (TTM) | 0.77x (market cap $95.9bn / trailing twelve-month revenue $124,904m) |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $178.6bn (market cap $95.9bn plus total debt $90.4bn less cash $7.7bn, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 5.2x. EBITDA is trailing operating income of $18,317m plus trailing depreciation and amortisation of $15,760m, giving $34,077m; the wider DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization total is used rather than depreciation alone. On Comcast's own trailing adjusted EBITDA of approximately $34.4bn the multiple is 5.2x on the same enterprise value. |
| P/FCF | 4.7x (market cap $95.9bn / free cash flow $20.4bn, where FCF is trailing operating cash flow of approximately $32.5bn less capital expenditure of approximately $12.1bn). On Comcast's own definition, which also deducts $2.6bn of cash paid for intangibles, trailing FCF is $17.8bn and the multiple is 5.4x. |
| Price/book | 1.1x (market cap $95.9bn / total equity $89.8bn at 30 June 2026) |
| Dividend yield | 4.9% ($1.32 annualised at $27.02), held flat for 2026 |
| 52-week high | $32.86 |
| 52-week low | $21.28 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 2.07% (72,592,374 shares short against a 3,511m free float, settlement date 31 July 2026) |
| Days to cover | 1.99 days on average trading volume, same settlement date |
Note that both the enterprise value and the EBITDA multiple are struck before the NBCUniversal and Sky separation, which will reallocate an as-yet-undisclosed share of the $90.4bn debt load between two companies. Readers can chart the multiples themselves on the ChartsView live charts.
7. What Are They Building
Network upgrade. Comcast is executing a multi-year evolution of its hybrid fibre-coaxial plant rather than a full fibre rebuild. The FY2025 10-K describes the rollout of DOCSIS 4.0 in select markets, which delivers multi-gigabit symmetrical speeds, alongside virtualisation and automation of core network functions. Comcast completed the world's first DOCSIS 4.0 deployment and now offers multi-gigabit downstream to roughly 60% of residential customers, with fibre-to-the-premises reaching symmetrical 10Gbps residential and up to 400Gbps for certain business customers. Connectivity and Platforms capital expenditure was $8.7bn in FY2025, up 5.3%.
Convergence and wireless. Xfinity Mobile is the fastest-growing line in the company: 10,187k lines at 30 June 2026 against 7,826k at end-2024, with record net adds of 364,000, 435,000 and 448,000 in the three most recent quarters. Domestic wireless service revenue grew 14.2% in Q2 2026. The economics rest on mobile virtual network operator agreements with Verizon, and from 2026 business wireless also runs on T-Mobile.
Peacock and sports rights. Peacock reached 48 million paid subscribers and its first profitable quarter in Q2 2026. The strategy is explicitly sports-led: NBA and WNBA under an eleven-year agreement worth roughly $27bn, Sunday Night Football, the Premier League, the Milan Cortina Olympics, Super Bowl LX and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Prices were raised across all tiers on 18 August 2026 ahead of the NFL season, taking the Select tier to $8.99 and Premium to $12.99 a month.
Theme parks. The largest capital programme outside the network. Epic Universe opened in Orlando on 22 May 2025, Universal Horror Unleashed opened in Las Vegas in 2025, Universal Kids Resort opened in Frisco, Texas on 1 July 2026, and Universal United Kingdom Resort near Bedford is a 476-acre, roughly $8bn project with construction beginning in 2026 and opening targeted for 2031.
Reshaping Sky. Sky's German operations were sold on 31 May 2026, and on 7 July 2026 Sky agreed to acquire ITV Media & Entertainment for up to £1.6bn, combining Sky with the ITV channels and ITVX to build a UK commercial streaming platform. ITV Studios is to be separately listed.
8. Competitive Landscape
Comcast now competes on two fronts that barely overlap: connectivity against telecoms operators and cable peers, and content against global streamers. Market capitalisations below were pulled on 25 August 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Netflix (NFLX) | $333.2bn | Q2 2026 revenue of $12.56bn, up 13.4% year on year, with the advertising business tracking towards roughly $3bn of revenue in 2026 |
| Verizon (VZ) | $208.4bn | Q2 2026 broadband net additions of 348,000, comprising 193,000 fixed wireless and 155,000 fibre, with 10.913m fibre connections |
| T-Mobile US (TMUS) | $195.9bn | Q2 2026 postpaid net account additions of 277,000, down 13% year on year, with postpaid average revenue per account of $152.91 |
| Walt Disney (DIS) | $191.0bn | Combined Disney+ and Hulu streaming profit more than doubled to $712m in the most recent reported quarter |
| AT&T (T) | $176.0bn | More than one million advanced connectivity net additions in Q2 2026, a record for combined fibre and fixed wireless |
| Charter Communications (CHTR) | $20.3bn (Class A common equity only) | Q2 2026 broadband net losses of 172,000 and mobile line net additions of 406,000; the $34.5bn Cox transaction closed on 20 August 2026 |
Comcast at roughly $95.9bn is now worth less than half of Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T or Disney, and under a third of Netflix, while remaining about 4.7 times the common equity value of Charter. Note that Charter's figure excludes the partnership units issued to Cox at closing and therefore understates its total enterprise.
9. Insider Activity
Comcast is led by Brian L. Roberts as Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer alongside Michael J. Cavanagh as Co-Chief Executive Officer, with Jason S. Armstrong as Chief Financial Officer. Under the announced separation, Cavanagh is to become Chief Executive of NBCUniversal and Michael Angelakis, a former Comcast Chief Financial Officer, is to return as Chief Executive of Comcast, with Roberts remaining involved in the leadership of both companies. Insider activity during 2026 has been dominated by option exercises, tax withholding on vesting and estate-planning gifts rather than conviction trading. There has been no open-market insider buying in 2026, and total genuine open-market selling amounts to under $2.3m across three individuals.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward D. Breen | 17 Aug 2026 | Gift / transfer to trust | 62,440 | n/a | No cash proceeds | Estate planning, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Brian L. Roberts | 05 Aug 2026 | Gift | 204,100 | n/a | No cash proceeds | Estate planning, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Brian L. Roberts | 19 May 2026 | Gift | 202,500 | n/a | No cash proceeds | Estate planning, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Jason S. Armstrong | 05 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 4,494 | $31.73 | $142,617 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Michael J. Cavanagh | 11 Feb 2026 | Open-market sale | 57,947 | $32.66 | $1,892,549 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Asuka Nakahara | 03 Feb 2026 | Open-market sale | 8,275 | $29.70 | $245,768 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Brian L. Roberts | 11 Feb 2026 | Option exercise with shares withheld for tax | 984,320 exercised, 907,653 withheld | $28.38 strike, $32.70 withholding | Non-cash to the insider | Equity compensation |
10. Key Risks
- Broadband subscriber erosion: Domestic residential broadband customers fell from 29,373k at end-2024 to 28,486k at 30 June 2026, and domestic broadband revenue declined 5.5% year on year in Q2 2026 to $6,280m. The pivot to simplified everyday pricing with a five-year guarantee is trading price for volume, and volume has not yet turned positive.
- Fixed wireless and subsidised fibre overbuild: The FY2025 10-K names 5G fixed wireless networks, advanced fibre networks, municipal and power-company networks and federally or state-subsidised overbuilds within Comcast's own footprint as direct competitive threats. Verizon and AT&T both added subscribers in the same quarter Comcast lost them.
- Cord-cutting and margin compression: Domestic video customers fell from 12,523k at end-2024 to 10,668k at 30 June 2026, with video revenue down 7.8% in Q2 2026. Residential Connectivity & Platforms adjusted EBITDA margin compressed 160 basis points year on year to 37.7%.
- Debt load and its allocation between two companies: Total debt of $90,381m against $7,661m of cash leaves net debt of roughly $82,720m, approximately 2.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and around 86% of the entire equity market capitalisation. How that debt is split in the separation is a live risk to both entities' credit ratings.
- Separation execution and tax risk: Comcast has disclosed the risk of significant tax liability if the Versant separation fails to qualify as tax-free, and in February 2026 warned of a potential tax charge despite a non-taxable opinion. The NBCUniversal and Sky spin adds regulatory approval, financing, stranded-cost and dis-synergy risk over roughly a year.
- Content cost inflation against fragmenting audiences: The eleven-year NBA and WNBA agreement worth roughly $27bn is now a fixed annual cost of approximately $2.5bn. Peacock lost $552m of EBITDA in Q4 2025 and $432m in Q1 2026 before turning profitable in a quarter that carried FIFA World Cup revenue.
- Goodwill and intangible carrying values: The balance sheet carries $53.1bn of goodwill and $59.4bn of franchise rights against a market capitalisation of $95.9bn. Comcast wrote off $8,583m in 2022, $155m in FY2025 and a further $171m in Q1 2026, so the precedent for further impairment exists.
- Reduced capital returns: The buyback was paused on 29 June 2026 and the dividend held flat in January 2026, removing the two supports that had underpinned per-share growth.
11. Recent Developments
- 02 Jan 2026 — Versant Media Group spin-off completed. Comcast distributed one Versant share for every 25 Comcast shares in a tax-free separation covering CNBC, USA Network, Golf Channel, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Fandango; Versant began trading on Nasdaq as VSNT on 5 January 2026, and Comcast transferred $750m of net cash to it during Q1 2026.
- 29 Jan 2026 — FY2025 results and a frozen dividend. Comcast reported record full-year free cash flow of $19,235m and adjusted EPS of $4.31, and simultaneously held the annualised dividend at $1.32 per share, ending a run of seventeen consecutive annual increases.
- 23 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 delivers record wireless adds on an Olympic quarter. The Milan Cortina Winter Olympics reached 225 million Americans and Super Bowl LX averaged 125 million viewers, NBCUniversal's most-watched programme ever, while wireless net adds hit a then-record 435,000 and broadband losses narrowed by 117,000 year on year.
- 31 May 2026 — Sale of Sky's German operations completed. Comcast now presents its results pro forma for both the Versant separation and the Germany disposal.
- 29 Jun 2026 — Comcast announces it will split into two public companies. The board approved an intention to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky tax-free in approximately one year, retaining up to 19.9% for up to a year, with Michael Cavanagh to lead NBCUniversal and Michael Angelakis to lead Comcast; the share buyback was paused the same day and the shares rose more than 20% pre-market.
- 01 Jul 2026 — Universal Kids Resort opened in Frisco, Texas. Comcast's first theme park designed specifically for families with young children began trading, following Epic Universe's opening in Orlando in May 2025.
- 07 Jul 2026 — Sky agreed to acquire ITV Media & Entertainment. The deal, worth up to £1.6bn including £1.2bn of cash, Love Productions and an earn-out, brings the ITV channels and ITVX under Sky, with ITV Studios to be spun off as a separately listed company.
- 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results show Peacock's first profitable quarter. Peacock delivered positive adjusted EBITDA of $189m on 48 million subscribers, domestic wireless lines crossed 10 million with a record 448,000 net adds, and free cash flow rose 2.3% to $4,604m, though management flagged near-term softness in theme parks.
- 18 Aug 2026 — Peacock raised prices across every tier. Ahead of the NFL season the Select plan moved to $8.99 a month from $7.99 and Premium to $12.99 from $10.99, with increases of $1 to $3 depending on tier.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Third-party earnings calendars point to 29 October 2026, consistent with Comcast reporting Q3 2025 on 30 October 2025, but the company had not issued its own conference-call announcement as at 25 August 2026.
- 07 Oct 2026 — Expected ex-dividend date for the fourth-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.33 per share.
- 28 Oct 2026 — Expected payment date for the fourth-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.33 per share.
- Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results, together with the board's decision on the 2027 dividend rate after holding it flat for 2026.
- Expected Jun 2027 — Targeted completion of the NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off, described on 29 June 2026 as "in approximately one year" and subject to final board approval, tax opinions, regulatory clearance and financing.
- TBC — Completion of Sky's acquisition of ITV Media & Entertainment, subject to UK regulatory clearance; no completion date has been published.
- TBC — Resumption of the share repurchase programme, paused on 29 June 2026 with no restart date given.
Universal United Kingdom Resort near Bedford is targeted to open in 2031, with construction beginning during 2026. The NFL season starting in September 2026 is the principal driver of Media revenue through the second half. Scheduled macroeconomic releases that move the wider market are listed on the ChartsView economic calendar, and readers can discuss this research in the ChartsView forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 24 August 2026
Charter Communications is the second-largest cable operator in the United States, selling broadband, mobile, video and voice under the Spectrum brand over its own hybrid fibre-coaxial network. Four days before this report was written, on 20 August 2026, Charter closed two transformational transactions on the same day: the combination with Cox Communications and the merger with Liberty Broadband. The combined company serves roughly 37 million customers across 45 states and will change its parent-company name to Cox Communications within a year while continuing to trade services under the Spectrum brand. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is building, and what the raw numbers look like as at August 2026. It contains no analyst opinions, ratings or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / exchange | CHTR, Nasdaq Global Select Market |
| Headquarters | Stamford, Connecticut, United States, with a significant retained presence in Atlanta, Georgia following the Cox combination |
| Sector | Communication services — cable broadband, mobile, video and voice |
| CEO / Leadership | Christopher L. Winfrey, President and Chief Executive Officer. Alex Taylor, Chairman and Chief Executive of Cox Enterprises, became Chairman of the Board on 20 August 2026; Eric Zinterhofer, the previous non-executive Chairman, is now Lead Independent Director. |
| Employees | Approximately 91,900 as at 31 December 2025 per the fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, before the Cox workforce was added on 20 August 2026 |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $54,774m; trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 $54,396m |
| Net income (FY2025) | $4,987m attributable to Charter shareholders |
| GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025) | $36.21 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025) | $22,708m as reported by the company |
| Share price | $150.17 (24 August 2026) |
| Market capitalisation | Approximately $20.2bn on Class A common stock alone; see Section 6 for the post-close fully diluted position |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 119.3m Class A shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (129.6m issued less 10.3m in treasury) plus one Class B share, before the 20 August 2026 closings |
| Dividend | None. Charter has never paid a common dividend; capital is returned through share, unit and note repurchases. |
| Network reach | Approximately 59.0 million estimated passings at 30 June 2026, rising to more than 70 million homes and businesses following the Cox combination |
Charter's price action can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page, and the macro releases that drive the rate environment for a business this levered are listed on the Economic Calendar.
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Scale step-change at closing: the Cox combination completed on 20 August 2026 took the group to roughly 37 million customers across 45 states and more than 70 million homes and businesses passed, with the Spectrum brand and pricing rolling into former Cox markets from mid-September 2026.
- Mobile is compounding fast: Spectrum Mobile reached 12.5 million lines at 30 June 2026, up 406,000 in the quarter and 1.7 million or 15.5% year on year, and mobile service revenue rose to $1,095m in the second quarter from $921m a year earlier.
- Cash generation against a small equity base: trailing twelve-month operating cash flow to 30 June 2026 was $16,470m and free cash flow after capital expenditure was approximately $4,358m, against a Class A market capitalisation near $20.2bn.
- Buybacks shrink the share count materially: weighted average diluted shares fell from 193.0m in 2021 to 137.7m in 2025, which is why diluted EPS rose from $24.47 to $36.21 over a period when revenue grew only 6% in total.
- Investment cycle has a defined end date: management has said the network evolution to symmetrical and multi-gigabit speeds completes in 2027, after which the elevated capital expenditure of recent years should step down.
Bear Case
- Broadband is shrinking, not growing: internet customers fell by 172,000 in the second quarter of 2026 to 29.4 million, a worse outcome than the 116,000 lost a year earlier, as fixed wireless access from the mobile carriers and fibre overbuilders take share.
- Revenue and EBITDA are both declining: second-quarter revenue fell 1.7% year on year to $13,526m and adjusted EBITDA fell 4.3% to $5,449m, so the earnings-per-share growth is being produced by the buyback rather than by the business.
- Very high leverage into a larger balance sheet: total principal debt was $93.8bn at 30 June 2026 against a modest equity market value, and the group has assumed approximately $12bn of Cox debt and finance leases on top.
- Dilution and a changed control structure: Charter issued the equivalent of just over 46 million shares in the Cox transaction, leaving Cox Enterprises with roughly 26% of the combined company on a fully diluted as-converted basis and the chairmanship.
- Video economics continue to deteriorate: video revenue fell 9.7% year on year in the second quarter, and $251m of programmer streaming-app costs were netted against video revenue in the quarter compared with $67m a year earlier.
3. Business Segments
Charter reports its operations as a single reportable segment. It does, however, disclose revenue by product line, and that disaggregation is the meaningful way to look at the business. Figures below are for the three months ended 30 June 2026 against total revenue of $13,526m.
| Segment / product line | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Internet (residential) | 42.7% ($5,776m) | Residential broadband subscriptions, the profit engine of the business. Revenue fell from $5,969m a year earlier as the customer base contracted to 29.4 million. |
| Video (residential) | 23.3% ($3,149m) | Residential pay television, 12.5 million customers. Reported revenue is depressed by $251m of streaming-app costs netted against it in the quarter. |
| Mobile service (residential) | 8.1% ($1,095m) | Spectrum Mobile, an MVNO with 12.5 million lines. The only large line growing, up from $921m a year earlier. |
| Small business | 8.2% ($1,104m) | Connectivity and voice sold to small and medium-sized businesses, broadly flat year on year at $1,096m in the prior period. |
| Other | 6.6% ($894m) | Mobile device sales, processing fees, security and other ancillary revenue, up from $835m a year earlier. |
| Mid-market and large business | 5.6% ($761m) | Enterprise connectivity, fibre and managed services, up from $740m a year earlier. |
| Advertising sales | 3.1% ($416m) | Spot and advanced advertising sold across the footprint, up from $371m a year earlier. |
| Voice (residential) | 2.4% ($331m) | Residential landline telephony, 5.7 million customers and in structural decline. |
Grouped the way the company presents them, residential revenue was $10,351m or 76.5% of the total, commercial revenue was $1,865m or 13.8%, with advertising and other making up the balance.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Charter sells recurring monthly subscriptions over a network it owns. Broadband is the anchor product and carries by far the highest incremental margin, because once a home is passed the cost of serving an additional subscriber is small. Video and voice are increasingly retention products rather than profit centres, and the strategy is explicitly to bundle streaming applications such as Disney+, HBO Max, Paramount+ and Peacock into video packages at no incremental customer charge, accepting lower reported video revenue in exchange for keeping the broadband relationship.
The mobile lever. Spectrum Mobile is a mobile virtual network operator riding a wholesale agreement with Verizon, but the economics improve as traffic moves off that wholesale network: the company has disclosed that roughly 88% of Spectrum Mobile data now offloads onto Charter's own Wi-Fi and CBRS spectrum. Mobile is sold at a discount to the national carriers and used to reduce broadband churn, supported by promotional constructs such as the savings guarantee launched in early 2026 for customers switching two or more lines.
Where the moat comes from, and where it is eroding. The durable advantage is the sunk cost of the last-mile plant: approximately 59.0 million estimated passings at 30 June 2026, rising past 70 million after the Cox combination, plus roughly 45 million Wi-Fi access points. Replicating that footprint would cost tens of billions and take a decade. The qualification is that the moat protects against duplication, not against substitution — fixed wireless access delivered over existing mobile spectrum and fibre overbuilds in dense markets both attack the broadband base without needing to match the coaxial footprint, which is precisely what the subscriber numbers now show.
Subsidised rural build. Charter continues to construct subsidised rural passings funded through federal and state programmes, activating 127,000 in the second quarter of 2026, and grew customer relationships within that rural footprint by 47,000 in the same period. This is the one part of the footprint where the passings count and the customer count are both still rising.
5. Financial Health
Figures below are taken from Charter's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and quarterly earnings releases. Fiscal years end 31 December. Charter does not report an adjusted earnings per share measure, so the GAAP figure is repeated in that column.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 51,682 | +7.5% | $24.47 | $24.47† | Nil | $88,564m |
| FY2022 | 54,022 | +4.5% | $30.74 | $30.74† | Nil | $96,093m |
| FY2023 | 54,607 | +1.1% | $29.99 | $29.99† | Nil | $95,777m |
| FY2024 | 55,085 | +0.9% | $34.97 | $34.97† | Nil | $92,134m |
| FY2025 | 54,774 | −0.6% | $36.21 | $36.21† | Nil | $94,006m |
† Charter does not publish an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings per share measure; its non-GAAP disclosure is adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. The GAAP diluted figure is therefore repeated. Long-term debt is the non-current balance at each fiscal year end per the balance sheet; the current portion was a further $750m at 31 December 2025. Charter has never declared a common dividend.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $13,526m | $10.66† | $10.66 |
| Q1 2026 | $13,597m | $9.17† | $9.17 |
| Q4 2025 | $13,601m | $10.34† | $10.34 |
| Q3 2025 | $13,672m | $8.34† | $8.34 |
| Q2 2025 | $13,766m | $9.18† | $9.18 |
| FY2025 total | $54,774m | $36.21† | $36.21 |
The shape of the five-year record is unusual. Revenue grew from $51,682m to $54,774m, a compound annual rate of about 1.5%, and fell outright in fiscal 2025. Diluted earnings per share nonetheless rose 48% over the same window, from $24.47 to $36.21, because weighted average diluted shares fell from 193.0m to 137.7m. On the cash flow statement, trailing twelve-month operating cash flow to 30 June 2026 was $16,470m and capital expenditure was $12,112m, giving approximately $4,358m of free cash flow. Depreciation, amortisation and accretion over the same twelve months was $8,762m and operating income was $12,663m. At 30 June 2026 non-current long-term debt stood at $92,960m with a further $999m current, against cash of $509m and shareholders' equity of $16,952m. In the second quarter alone the company repurchased 4.0m Class A shares for $838m and bought back $1.2bn of face-value notes for $1.0bn of cash.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
An important caveat applies to every equity-based ratio below. The Cox and Liberty Broadband transactions closed on 20 August 2026, four days before this report, and no post-close share count has yet been filed. The market capitalisation figure reflects Class A common stock only at the 30 June 2026 count. Charter issued the equivalent of just over 46 million shares to Cox Enterprises, largely as Charter Holdings partnership units and convertible preferred units rather than listed common stock, and retired a net 4.7 million shares through the Liberty Broadband exchange. On a fully diluted, as-converted and as-exchanged basis the equity value of the whole enterprise is therefore materially higher than the headline Class A figure, and the enterprise value below excludes both the Cox equity consideration and the approximately $12bn of Cox debt and finance leases now inside the group.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately $20.2bn on Class A common stock (share price $150.17 on 24 August 2026 across approximately 119.3m Class A shares at 30 June 2026). See the caveat above regarding the post-close fully diluted position. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | 3.91x on trailing twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $38.43. Charter publishes no adjusted earnings per share measure, so there is no separate adjusted multiple to quote. |
| P/E (forward) | n/a — Charter does not issue earnings per share guidance; management's forward guidance is limited to capital expenditure, reaffirmed at approximately $11.4bn for 2026 on a standalone basis excluding Cox. |
| P/S (TTM) | 0.37x (market cap approximately $20.2bn / trailing twelve-month revenue $54,396m) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 5.3x (enterprise value approximately $113.7bn / EBITDA approximately $21,425m). EBITDA is trailing twelve-month operating income of $12,663m plus depreciation, amortisation and accretion of $8,762m taken from the cash flow statement. The company's own reported adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $22,708m on a slightly different basis. |
| P/FCF | Approximately 4.6x (market cap approximately $20.2bn / free cash flow approximately $4,358m; free cash flow = trailing twelve-month operating cash flow $16,470m − capital expenditure $12,112m). The company's own free cash flow definition, which adjusts for accrued capital expenditure and other items, produced $5,004m for fiscal 2025. |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $113.7bn (market cap approximately $20.2bn + total debt approximately $93,959m, being $92,960m non-current plus $999m current at 30 June 2026, − cash of $509m). This is a pre-close figure and excludes the Cox equity consideration and assumed Cox debt. |
| Price/book | 1.06x (book value approximately $142.12 per share) |
| 52-week high | $285.82 |
| 52-week low | $111.55 |
| Short interest (% of float) | Approximately 29% (approximately 22.46m shares short against a free float of approximately 76.8m Class A shares, settlement date 31 July 2026). This is an unusually large short base and reflects a float much smaller than the issued share count because of the partnership-unit structure. |
| Days to cover | 7.18 days |
7. What Are They Building
Network evolution to symmetrical multi-gigabit. Charter is upgrading its hybrid fibre-coaxial plant to deliver symmetrical and multi-gigabit speeds across the entire footprint, using high-split and DOCSIS 4.0 technology. Symmetrical service has already launched in several markets and management has stated that the network evolution initiative completes in 2027. This is the central capital project and the reason capital expenditure ran at $11.7bn in fiscal 2025 against $7.6bn in fiscal 2021.
Cox integration. The Spectrum brand and pricing launch across all former Cox markets from mid-September 2026, roughly four weeks after closing. Full customer-service and workforce integration is targeted over an eighteen-month period. The parent-company name changes to Cox Communications within one year of the 20 August 2026 close, while consumer-facing services continue under the Spectrum brand. Cox internet customers were offered a free year of Spectrum Mobile from the closing date.
Mobile and in-home hardware. Spectrum Mobile continues to be the primary growth vector, at 12.5 million lines and adding roughly 400,000 per quarter. In February 2026 the company launched Invincible Wi-Fi, a Wi-Fi 7 gateway with integrated 5G failover and battery backup, positioning the in-home router as a converged product rather than a commodity.
Rural expansion. Subsidised rural construction continues at pace, with 127,000 rural passings activated in the second quarter of 2026 and rural customer relationships up 47,000 in the same quarter. This programme is funded through federal and state broadband subsidy awards and is the principal source of net new passings.
8. Competitive Position and Peers
Charter competes on three fronts at once: with the other large cable operator for scale economics, with the mobile carriers for both broadband via fixed wireless access and for mobile lines, and with fibre overbuilders in dense markets. Market capitalisations below were re-checked on 24 August 2026. Two names commonly listed as peers have changed: Frontier Communications was acquired by Verizon and delisted from Nasdaq in January 2026, and Altice USA changed its name to Optimum Communications and its ticker from ATUS to OPTU in November 2025.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| T-Mobile US (TMUS) | Approximately $196.3bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $92.2bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $34.4bn; the largest single source of fixed wireless competition for Charter's broadband base. |
| Verizon Communications (VZ) | Approximately $205.5bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $138.9bn; both Charter's MVNO wholesale host and, since completing the Frontier acquisition in January 2026, a fibre overbuilder reaching around 30 million homes and businesses. |
| Comcast (CMCSA) | Approximately $95.3bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $124.9bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $34.1bn; the direct cable comparator, larger and more diversified through content and theme parks. |
| Optimum Communications (OPTU, formerly Altice USA / ATUS) | Approximately $0.32bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $8.4bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $3.0bn; a distressed cable operator trading below $1 per share, illustrating how the market is pricing levered cable equity. |
| Cable One (CABO) | Approximately $0.13bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $1.44bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $0.69bn; a small rural cable operator whose equity has collapsed under the same combination of subscriber losses and leverage. |
The comparison with Optimum and Cable One is the important one for context. Both are smaller, more levered cable operators whose equity has been almost entirely written down while their enterprise values remain substantial. That is the mechanism the market is applying to levered cable equity when broadband subscribers decline, and it explains why Charter's own equity has fallen far more than its revenue has.
9. Insider Activity
Christopher L. Winfrey is President and Chief Executive Officer. The notable Section 16 activity in 2026 was a cluster of open-market purchases by the chief executive and two directors in late April, days after the first-quarter results triggered a sharp fall in the share price from roughly $241.53 on 24 April 2026 to about $165.17 by 30 April 2026.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher L. Winfrey (President and CEO) | 28 Apr 2026 | Open-market purchase | 6,936 (3,468 direct and 3,468 indirect via spouse) | Weighted average approximately $172.23 | Approximately $1.19m | Not disclosed as a Rule 10b5-1 plan |
| Wade Davis (Director) | 28 Apr 2026 | Open-market purchase | 5,728 | Approximately $173.72 | Approximately $0.99m | Not disclosed as a Rule 10b5-1 plan |
| Balan Nair (Director) | 28 Apr 2026 | Open-market purchase | 1,000 | Approximately $175.46 | Approximately $0.18m | Not disclosed as a Rule 10b5-1 plan |
No open-market sales by Section 16 officers were identified during this review, and Rule 10b5-1 plan status could not be confirmed for the purchases above. Readers should verify current filings directly against SEC Form 4 records. Note separately that the board changed materially at the 20 August 2026 closing: Cox's Dallas Clement and Mark Greatrex joined a thirteen-member board, Liberty Broadband's designees Martin Patterson and J. David Wargo stepped down, and Advance/Newhouse retained its two seats.
10. Key Risks
- Structural broadband subscriber decline: the internet base fell 172,000 in the second quarter of 2026 and has now declined for multiple consecutive quarters. Because broadband carries the highest incremental margin in the business, subscriber losses feed straight through to adjusted EBITDA, which fell 4.3% year on year in the same quarter.
- Leverage: total principal debt stood at $93.8bn at 30 June 2026 with net leverage running above 4x adjusted EBITDA, and the group has assumed roughly $12bn of Cox debt and finance leases. Management has set a modified post-transaction target net leverage range of 3.50x to 3.75x adjusted EBITDA, which requires either EBITDA growth or debt reduction that the current trajectory does not yet supply.
- Integration execution: the Cox combination closed on 20 August 2026 and the company's own cautionary disclosure identifies integration failure, unrealised synergies, transaction costs, higher interest expense and dilution as principal risks. Rebranding all former Cox markets to Spectrum from mid-September 2026 is a large customer-facing change executed within weeks of closing.
- Competitive substitution from fixed wireless and fibre: T-Mobile and Verizon are adding broadband customers on existing mobile spectrum at low incremental cost, and Verizon's completed acquisition of Frontier extends fibre to roughly 30 million homes and businesses. Neither route requires duplicating Charter's coaxial plant.
- Video economics and programming costs: video revenue fell 9.7% year on year in the second quarter, with $251m of programmer streaming-app costs netted against video revenue compared with $67m a year earlier. The bundling strategy is deliberate but it compresses reported revenue and residential average revenue per user.
- Concentrated control and float dynamics: Cox Enterprises holds approximately 26% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis and the chairmanship, Advance/Newhouse retains partnership units and board seats, and the resulting Class A free float of roughly 76.8m shares carries a short interest near 29%, which makes the listed equity mechanically volatile.
- Capital intensity until 2027: capital expenditure has run between $11.1bn and $11.7bn for three consecutive years and is guided at roughly $11.4bn for 2026 on a standalone basis. Free cash flow does not materially improve until the network evolution completes.
11. Recent Developments
- 20 Aug 2026 — Cox and Liberty Broadband transactions both close. Cox Enterprises received approximately 33.6m Charter Holdings common units, $6bn of 6.875% convertible preferred Charter Holdings units convertible into 12.6m common units, and approximately $4bn in cash, taking it to roughly 26% of the combined company on a fully diluted as-converted basis. Liberty Broadband shareholders received 0.236 Charter shares for each Liberty share, retiring approximately 38.6m shares and issuing approximately 33.9m, a net reduction of about 4.7m shares. Alex Taylor became Chairman; the parent company will be renamed Cox Communications within a year while services remain under the Spectrum brand.
- 20 Aug 2026 — Combined footprint disclosed. The enlarged group serves approximately 37 million customers across 45 states, with services available to more than 70 million homes and businesses. Spectrum brand and pricing launch in former Cox markets from mid-September 2026.
- 24 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter results. Revenue of $13,526m, down 1.7% year on year; net income attributable to shareholders of $1,292m; diluted EPS of $10.66 against $9.18; adjusted EBITDA of $5,449m, down 4.3%; capital expenditure of $2,871m; free cash flow of $969m. Internet customers fell 172,000 to 29.4 million while mobile lines rose 406,000 to 12.5 million.
- 28 Apr 2026 — Chief executive and two directors buy stock. Christopher Winfrey purchased 6,936 shares at a weighted average of approximately $172.23, alongside purchases by directors Wade Davis and Balan Nair, following the post-results decline.
- 24 Apr 2026 — First-quarter results and a sharp share price fall. Revenue of $13,597m, down 1.0% year on year, and diluted EPS of $9.17. The shares fell from around $241.53 at the report to about $165.17 within a week on continued broadband losses.
- 30 Jan 2026 — Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. Full-year revenue of $54,774m, down 0.6%; net income attributable to shareholders of $4,987m; adjusted EBITDA of $22,708m, up 0.6%; capital expenditure of $11,659m. During the year the company repurchased 17.1m shares and units for approximately $5.4bn.
- 20 Jan 2026 — Verizon completes the Frontier acquisition. Frontier Communications delisted from Nasdaq, with shareholders receiving $25.50 per share in cash, extending Verizon's fibre reach to roughly 30 million homes and businesses across 31 states and the District of Columbia.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Sep 2026 — Spectrum brand and pricing launch across all former Cox markets, scheduled for mid-September 2026, the first large customer-facing milestone of the integration.
- Expected Oct 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 results, expected at the end of October. This will be the first reporting period to include any part of the Cox business and the first opportunity to see a post-close share count and leverage position.
- Expected Feb 2027 — Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, together with the first full-year capital expenditure outlook for the combined group.
- Expected Aug 2027 — Deadline for the parent-company name change to Cox Communications, which management has said will take place within one year of the 20 August 2026 closing.
- Expected 2027 — Completion of the network evolution initiative to symmetrical and multi-gigabit speeds across the footprint, the point at which management has indicated the elevated capital expenditure cycle ends.
- Expected 2028 — Conclusion of the eighteen-month Cox customer-service and workforce integration programme begun at the August 2026 closing.
No shareholder meeting or investor day date had been announced as at 24 August 2026. Charter's results releases are typically issued before the market opens on the reporting date.
Discussion of Charter and the wider cable and connectivity sector takes place on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 22 August 2026
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is the Coca-Cola system's largest bottler by revenue, serving nearly 600 million consumers across 31 countries from Norway to New Zealand and, since 2024, the Philippines. It does not own the brands it sells. It owns the plants, the trucks, the coolers and the exclusive territory rights, and it buys concentrate from The Coca-Cola Company under a pricing formula that is directly linked to its own revenue per case. Understanding that mechanism is most of what you need to understand the economics. This report covers the half-year results published on 4 August 2026 and is built from company filings only, with no analyst opinions or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc (UK-incorporated) |
| Ticker / Exchanges | CCEP on NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam and the Spanish Stock Exchanges. ISIN GB00BDCPN049. Member of the Nasdaq-100 |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive — non-alcoholic beverages, bottling and distribution |
| Reporting currency | Euro. Accounts are prepared under IFRS; CCEP is a foreign private issuer and files Form 20-F, not Form 10-K |
| Share price | $108.00 (NASDAQ close, 21 August 2026); approximately GBP 78 to 80 on the London Stock Exchange, which quotes CCEP in pounds rather than pence |
| Market cap | ~$47.7bn, equivalent to ~€40.9bn at the 21 August 2026 rate of 1.1678 dollars per euro |
| Revenue (FY2025) | €20,901m, up 2.3% year on year as reported |
| Revenue (trailing twelve months to 3 Jul 2026) | €21,351m |
| Net profit (FY2025) | €1,942m attributable to owners of the parent; reported diluted EPS €4.26, comparable diluted EPS €4.11 |
| CEO / Leadership | Damian Gammell, Chief Executive Officer. Chief Financial Officer Edward (Ed) Walker, in post since 1 July 2024 |
| Employees | Approximately 39,000 colleagues |
| Headquarters | Uxbridge, United Kingdom |
| Shares in issue | 442,228,029 at 31 July 2026, with no shares held in treasury. Repurchased shares are cancelled |
| Major shareholders | Olive Partners S.A. (Daurella family / Cobega) approximately 37.3%; The Coca-Cola Company approximately 19% |
| Latest reported period | H1 2026, the six months ended 3 July 2026, released 4 August 2026 |
Sources: H1 2026 half-year report (Form 6-K), 2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F.
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- An exclusive territory franchise that cannot be replicated: CCEP holds perpetual-style bottling rights across 31 countries, serving more than 4 million customers. Rebuilding the plants, the cold-drink equipment and the direct-store-delivery relationships would be prohibitively slow and capital-intensive.
- Energy and zero-sugar are doing the heavy lifting: in H1 2026 energy volumes rose 18.6% with category share up 230 basis points, zero-sugar volumes grew about 10% and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar rose 10.7% — growth in the accretive parts of the mix rather than in water.
- Southeast Asia is a genuine second engine: the Philippines is running at an EBIT margin close to its 10% target with a new production facility due on stream in 2027, and Indonesian sparkling volumes have returned to growth following the route-to-market overhaul completed at the end of 2025.
- Cash returns are systematic, not opportunistic: a dividend payout ratio held within half a percentage point of the 50% policy for five straight years, plus a €1bn buyback in which every repurchased share is cancelled, shrinking the count from 449m in February to 442m by July 2026.
- Leverage is inside the target band and falling on a multi-year view: net debt to comparable EBITDA of 2.7x sits within the 2.5x to 3.0x target range, down from 3.5x at the end of 2022 despite funding the Philippines acquisition.
Bear Case
- Incidence pricing caps the reward for good execution: concentrate cost is contractually indexed to CCEP's own revenue per unit case, so successful pricing and mix work automatically inflates cost of sales. In H1 2026 cost of sales per case rose 0.6% against revenue per case of 0.4%.
- Core Europe is barely growing: Europe volumes fell 0.2% across FY2025, German volumes declined in both FY2025 and H1 2026 on consumer trading down, and European away-from-home volumes were negative at minus 0.6% in H1 2026.
- The H1 2026 headline is flattered by the calendar: FY2026 has six extra selling days in the first quarter and six fewer in the fourth. Reported H1 volume growth of 5.6% was only 2.2% on a days-adjusted basis, so the second half faces the mirror image.
- Total dependence on a single franchisor: The Coca-Cola Company sets concentrate prices, payment terms and conditions of supply, owns roughly 19% of CCEP, and CCEP's own credit rating can be materially influenced by changes in the franchisor's rating.
- Regulation is a one-way ratchet: the French sugar tax increase drove four consecutive quarters of decline in Coca-Cola Original Taste in France, and the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation requires every member state to run a deposit return scheme by 1 January 2029, with Spain, France and Italy lacking comprehensive systems today.
3. Business Segments
CCEP reports two geographic operating segments. Note that the label formerly used for the second segment, API or Australia, Pacific and Indonesia, has been replaced by APS — Australia, Pacific and Southeast Asia.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Europe | 73.7% (€15,404m) | Four business units — France, Belgium, Netherlands and Nordics €5,302m; Great Britain €3,470m; Iberia €3,429m; Germany €3,203m. Mature, high-share developed markets where growth comes from price, pack mix, zero-sugar and energy rather than volume. FY2025 comparable operating profit €2,139m on 2,587m unit cases, at €5.97 revenue per case |
| APS — Australia, Pacific & Southeast Asia | 26.3% (€5,497m) | Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands and Papua New Guinea €3,279m, plus Southeast Asia covering the Philippines and Indonesia €2,218m. The growth engine, with lower revenue per case and faster volume growth. FY2025 comparable operating profit €669m on 1,371m unit cases, at €4.26 revenue per case |
The H1 2026 split was broadly unchanged at Europe €7,911m, or 73.8%, and APS €2,813m, or 26.2%. CCEP discloses category and channel data as volume mix and volume growth rather than as a percentage of revenue, so no revenue split by drink category or by home versus away-from-home channel is published.
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. CCEP buys concentrate and syrup from The Coca-Cola Company and other brand partners including Monster, Bacardi, Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard, manufactures and packages the finished drink, and sells and delivers it to retail and hospitality customers inside exclusive geographic territories. Revenue is simply unit cases sold multiplied by revenue per unit case, where a unit case is about 5.678 litres. Everything management does falls into one of those two levers.
Incidence pricing, the mechanism that defines the margin. CCEP's concentrate cost is not a fixed price per litre. It is contractually linked to CCEP's own revenue per unit case, which the company states plainly in its guidance. The consequence is that when CCEP raises headline price or improves mix, The Coca-Cola Company automatically shares in the upside and cost of sales per case rises alongside revenue per case. This is visible in H1 2026, where revenue per case rose 0.4% and cost of sales per case rose 0.6%. It is the single most important reason a bottler's margin structure looks different from a brand owner's.
The moat is physical, not legal-only. Exclusive territory rights are the legal layer, but the durable advantage is route-to-market density: manufacturing plants close to demand, more than 80,000 new coolers added in H1 2026 alone on an already large installed base, and direct relationships with more than 4 million customers. CCEP claims, on Nielsen and IRI data, to be the number one value creator in retail, delivering more revenue growth for customers than any FMCG peer.
Revenue and margin growth management. The stated levers are headline pricing, promotional optimisation, pack architecture (small cans and small PET for premiumisation against large-format value packs) and brand mix, where energy is accretive and water dilutive. By volume in H1 2026 the portfolio was 58.5% Coca-Cola trademark, 21.5% flavours and mixers, 12.0% water, sports and ready-to-drink tea and coffee, and 8.0% other including energy.
5. Financial Health
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (€m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 13,763 | +30.0% | €2.15 | €2.83 | €1.40 | €13,140m |
| FY2022 | 17,320 | +25.8% | €3.29 | €3.39 | €1.68 | €11,907m |
| FY2023 | 18,302 | +5.7% | €3.63 | €3.71 | €1.84 | €11,396m |
| FY2024 | 20,438 | +11.7% | €3.08 | €3.95 | €1.97 | €11,331m |
| FY2025 | 20,901 | +2.3% | €4.26 | €4.11 | €2.04 | €10,694m |
GAAP EPS here means reported diluted earnings per share under IFRS, and Adjusted EPS means CCEP's own comparable diluted EPS measure. Long-term debt is total borrowings, current plus non-current, at each year end; all five figures were re-derived directly from CCEP's SEC XBRL company facts rather than taken from secondary sources. FY2021 revenue growth reflects the first substantially full year of Coca-Cola Amatil, acquired in May 2021, and FY2024 includes the Philippines business from 23 February 2024, so neither year is organic.
Why FY2025 reported EPS exceeds comparable EPS. In every other year of this table comparable EPS is the higher number. FY2025 reverses because reported profit was flattered by a €104m pre-tax gain on property sales in Germany and Great Britain, worth about €0.18 per share, and a €67m deferred tax credit from tax rate and law changes, worth about €0.15, which together more than offset €105m of restructuring charges.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 (to 3 Jul 2026) | €10,724m | €2.20 | €2.17 |
| H2 2025 (derived)† | €10,627m | €2.09 | €2.27 |
| H1 2025 (to 27 Jun 2025) | €10,274m | €2.02 | €1.99 |
| H2 2024 (derived)† | €10,610m | €1.98 | €1.35 |
| H1 2024 (to 28 Jun 2024) | €9,828m | €1.97 | €1.73 |
| FY2025 total | €20,901m | €4.11 | €4.26 |
† CCEP reports half-yearly, publishing an H1 interim report and a full year. It does not publish a standalone second half, so H2 rows are derived by subtracting H1 from the full year. The derived H2 earnings per share figures are approximations, because the weighted average share count falls through the year as buyback shares are cancelled. The first and third quarters are trading updates giving revenue and volume only, with no earnings or balance sheet, which is why this table uses half-year rather than quarterly rows.
H1 2026 in detail. Revenue of €10,724m was up 4.4% as reported and 6.1% on a comparable fx-neutral basis, on volume of 2,041m unit cases. Comparable operating profit rose 6.5%, or 8.1% fx-neutral, to €1,481m; reported operating profit was €1,458m. Comparable free cash flow was €435m and an interim dividend of €0.82 was declared. Note the calendar shift: reported volume growth of 5.6% was only 2.2% adjusted for six extra selling days in the first quarter, which reverse in the fourth.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 net cash from operating activities was €2,953m, with €750m of property, plant and equipment purchases and €200m of capitalised software, and depreciation and amortisation of €923m. CCEP's own comparable free cash flow measure, which deducts lease principal and interest as well as capital expenditure, was €1,836m. At 31 December 2025 cash was €918m plus €39m of short-term investments against total borrowings of €10,694m, giving CCEP-stated net debt of €9,823m and leverage of 2.7 times comparable EBITDA.
At 3 July 2026 total borrowings had risen to €12,189m and cash to €1,753m plus €241m of short-term investments, so net debt rose only modestly to €10,284m. The gross increase is largely pre-funding, and the first half is CCEP's seasonal working capital peak. CCEP publishes its leverage ratio only at the full year.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $108.00 (NASDAQ close, 21 August 2026), equivalent to about €92.48 |
| Market cap | ~$47.7bn, equivalent to ~€40.9bn at 1.1678 dollars per euro |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~20.8x (€92.48 / trailing twelve month reported diluted EPS of €4.44, being FY2025 €4.26 less H1 2025 €1.99 plus H1 2026 €2.17). On CCEP's comparable diluted EPS of €4.29 over the same period the multiple is ~21.6x |
| P/E (forward) | ~18.8x on a consensus forward EPS estimate of about $5.74. CCEP does not guide to an EPS figure; its FY2026 guidance is for 3% to 4% comparable fx-neutral revenue growth and about 7% comparable operating profit growth |
| P/S (TTM) | ~1.9x (market cap ~€40.9bn / trailing twelve month revenue €21,351m) |
| Enterprise value | ~€51.0bn (market cap ~€40.9bn + total borrowings €12,189m − cash €1,753m and short-term investments €241m, all at 3 July 2026). CCEP's own net debt measure of €10,284m differs because it also adjusts for the fair value of hedging instruments and related financial assets and liabilities |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~13.5x. EBITDA of €3,780m is trailing twelve month reported operating profit of €2,887m plus depreciation and amortisation of €893m, each built from the FY2025 full year less H1 2025 plus H1 2026. This uses reported rather than comparable operating profit, so it includes the FY2025 property disposal gains |
| P/FCF | ~19.9x on a simple basis (market cap ~€40.9bn / free cash flow €2,051m; free cash flow = trailing operating cash flow €3,002m − trailing capital expenditure €951m covering property, plant and equipment plus capitalised software). On CCEP's own stricter comparable free cash flow definition, which also deducts lease principal and interest, FY2025 free cash flow was €1,836m and the multiple would be ~22.3x |
| 52-week high | $113.67 |
| 52-week low | $84.66 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 5.89% (8,561,995 shares against a float of 196,890,644), settlement date 31 July 2026. The float is small relative to shares in issue because Olive Partners at roughly 37.3% and The Coca-Cola Company at roughly 19% are excluded, so the percentage looks high against shares outstanding of about 1.9% |
| Days to cover | 4.26 |
| Dividend yield | ~2.25% on the NASDAQ price. The dividend is declared in euros, so dollar and sterling yields move with exchange rates independently of the declared amount |
| Net debt / comparable EBITDA | 2.7x at 31 December 2025, inside the 2.5x to 3.0x target range. CCEP does not publish this ratio at the half year |
Market data was pulled live on 22 August 2026. Financial statement inputs are from the H1 2026 half-year report and the FY2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F, re-derived from SEC XBRL company facts.
You can compare CCEP with other bottlers on our Live Charts page, and track the consumer and inflation releases that drive volumes on the Economic Calendar.
7. What Are They Building
Broadening the portfolio. Zero-sugar volumes grew about 10% in H1 2026, with Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Zero Caffeine relaunched in black and gold packaging. Sports drinks rose 12%, helped by Powerade launching in Indonesia and Aquarius Extra in Iberia. Energy was the standout at 18.6% growth with category share up 230 basis points, driven by Monster innovation including Viking Berry, Ultra Blue Hawaiian and a Lando Norris edition, plus new listings in France, Sweden and the Netherlands. Alcohol-adjacent launches include Spiced Rum Bacardi and Coke and Absolut Sprite Pineapple.
Execution in the trade. H1 2026 included CCEP's biggest ever FIFA World Cup activation with more than 500,000 displays, and more than 80,000 new coolers added, roughly a 5% increase in the installed base. New customer wins included Parkdean Resorts and Papa John's in Great Britain, Domino's in Australia, plus McDonald's and Marriott International.
Scaling Southeast Asia. This is where the capital is going. Indonesian sparkling volumes returned to growth on the back of a new route-to-market model completed at the end of 2025 and innovation including Sprite Nipis Mint and Fanta Fruit Punch. The Philippines is running close to its 10% EBIT margin target, a new production facility is on track to start production in 2027, and a shared service centre in Manila has scaled past 250 colleagues.
Technology and AI. The S/4HANA deployment is on track, AI and data training workshops have been delivered to 8,000 colleagues, and an agentic AI application called KIRA is being used to generate brand insights and speed up market decisions, alongside enhanced promotional evaluation and pricing tools.
Packaging and sustainability. CCEP targets net zero across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 by 2040, validated by the Science Based Targets initiative, with a near-term target to cut absolute emissions 30% by 2030 against a 2019 baseline. It has committed to at least 30% recycled PET by 2030 and to collecting the equivalent of 85% of bottles and cans sold. Progress at FY2025 was emissions down 18.9% since 2019, 75.7% of bottles and cans collected, and 45.9% recycled PET, already well ahead of the 2030 target. A €385m emissions reduction investment plan runs from 2025 to 2027, and CCEP retained the CDP A List for climate for a tenth consecutive year. A deposit return scheme launched in Portugal in H1 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — franchisor, not a competitor | ~$392.0bn | FY2025 net operating revenues $47.94bn, up about 2%; net income $13.11bn. Owns roughly 19% of CCEP and sets its concentrate terms |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) | ~$23.6bn | FY2025 revenue MXN 291,746m (about $17.3bn); net income MXN 23,845m. The largest Coca-Cola bottler by volume |
| Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) | ~$22.6bn (GBP 16.6bn) | FY2025 net sales revenue €11,604m, up 7.9% as reported and 8.1% organic; net income €940m. The closest listed comparator |
| Carlsberg (CARL-B) | ~$18.2bn (DKK 116.5bn) | FY2025 revenue DKK 89,095m, up 18.8%, reflecting the first full year of Britvic; net income DKK 5,955m |
| Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) | ~$12.6bn | FY2025 net sales $7.23bn, up 4.8%; net income $571m. The largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States |
Market capitalisations were pulled live on 21 and 22 August 2026 and converted at spot rates of 1.3648 dollars per pound and 0.156299 dollars per Danish krone. Peer revenue and net income figures come from each company's own annual income statement. The most instructive contrast is with Coca-Cola HBC, which grew organic revenue 8.1% in 2025 against CCEP's 2.8% adjusted comparable fx-neutral — emerging-market inflation plus volume against CCEP's developed-market price and mix model.
Britvic is no longer a listed comparator: Carlsberg completed its GBP 3.3bn acquisition on 17 January 2025 and Britvic shares were delisted on 20 January 2025. There is no meaningful independent listed PepsiCo bottler in CCEP's territories, since PepsiCo operates a largely owned-bottler model there.
9. Insider Activity
Chief Executive Officer Damian Gammell has not been recorded in any discretionary market transaction during the period under review. As a foreign private issuer CCEP is exempt from Section 16, so it does not file Forms 4; director and PDMR dealings are disclosed monthly by regulatory announcement and bundled into Form 6-K filings. On that basis there have been no insider transactions of a discretionary nature — no open-market purchases and no open-market sales — by CCEP directors or persons discharging managerial responsibilities in the six months to 22 August 2026. Every disclosed dealing is a routine employee share plan acquisition or a share award grant, summarised below.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan A. de Rueda Gamboa, Chief Public Affairs Officer | 12 Aug 2026 | Award grant | 9,172 | $0.00 | Nil at grant | Long Term Incentive Plan, performance share units vesting 26 Mar 2029 |
| Edward Walker, Chief Financial Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Svetlana Walker, General Counsel | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Stephen Lusk, Chief Commercial Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 1.889300 | $105.007100 | $198.39 | UK Shareshop |
| Stephen Moorhouse, Chief Customer Service Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Leendert den Hollander, Chief Strategy Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Edward Walker, Chief Financial Officer | 20 Apr 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.725670 | $98.349995 | $199.86 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Ana Callol, General Manager Iberia | 21 Apr 2026 | Award vesting | 3.909854 | $0.00 | Nil | Employee Benefit Trust matching award |
One presentational trap is worth flagging. The weighted average price reported on UK Share Plan lines, around $53.65 in April and $57.28 in July, averages the purchased shares with free one-for-one matching shares priced at zero. The actual market price paid was $98.35 in April and $105.01 in July, which is what the table above shows.
10. Key Risks
- Total dependence on The Coca-Cola Company: CCEP owns no rights to the brands it sells, holding territory bottling agreements instead. The franchisor determines prices, payment terms and other conditions of concentrate supply, owns roughly 19% of the company, and CCEP's credit rating can be materially influenced by changes in the franchisor's rating. The Form 20-F carries a distinct System Risks category for exactly this.
- Incidence pricing transfers part of every pricing gain: because concentrate cost is indexed to CCEP's revenue per unit case, revenue growth management work automatically inflates cost of sales, structurally capping how much of a price or mix improvement reaches operating profit.
- Sugar, packaging and excise taxes: the French sugar tax increase from March 2025 caused four consecutive quarters of decline in Coca-Cola Original Taste in France, and FY2025 cost of sales per case was inflated by tax increases in France and Great Britain. The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy applies at 18p and 24p per litre by sugar band.
- Packaging regulation and deposit return schemes: the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation entered into force in February 2025 and requires every member state to operate a deposit return scheme for single-use plastic bottles and cans up to three litres by 1 January 2029 — a material capital and operating cost event in Spain, France and Italy, which lack comprehensive systems today.
- Commodity and input cost inflation: guidance assumes only about 1.5% growth in cost of sales per unit case, protected by hedging that was raised to roughly 90% for FY2026 from about 80% at the February guide. Hedging is a one-year buffer, not a structural defence, and the increase in the hedge ratio implies management saw rising exposure.
- Currency translation: a euro reporter with large Australian dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, sterling and kina exposure. FY2025 carried a €686m foreign currency translation loss through other comprehensive income, and currency cut reported APS revenue by 6.5 percentage points. Currency controls in Papua New Guinea restrict conversion and remittance of €55m of cash held at 3 July 2026.
- Consumer weakness in core Europe: management describes the consumer environment as challenging. Germany declined in both FY2025 and H1 2026 on affordability-driven trading down, European away-from-home volumes were negative in H1 2026, and growth is skewing to large-format value packs that carry negative pack mix.
- Southeast Asia execution and geopolitical exposure: Indonesian volumes fell double digits in FY2025 on a weaker consumer and macro backdrop, with management citing the situation in the Middle East as a factor and describing the full impact as still uncertain. The Philippines carries typhoon and flooding disruption risk and is only about 60% owned, so €37m of H1 2026 profit and €468m of balance sheet equity sit with non-controlling interests.
- Leverage against a heavy commitment schedule: net debt of €10,284m at 3 July 2026 against total equity of roughly €8.3bn, with €1,663m of borrowings due within a year, while simultaneously funding €1bn of buybacks, roughly €1bn of annual dividends and capital expenditure of about 5% of revenue.
11. Recent Developments
- 17 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and a new buyback. Revenue of €20,901m, comparable diluted EPS of €4.11 up 6.2%, comparable free cash flow of €1,836m and a dividend of €2.04, alongside the announcement of a further €1bn share buyback; the shares rose 4.98% on the day.
- 18 Feb 2026 — First buyback tranche commences. The initial €500m tranche began across US venues, the London Stock Exchange, CBOE Europe and Aquis, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled rather than held in treasury.
- 13 Mar 2026 — Annual Report and Form 20-F filed. CCEP filed its 2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F with the SEC, containing the audited FY2025 accounts and full risk factor disclosure.
- 16 Apr 2026 — Notice of Annual General Meeting. The 2026 AGM was called for 28 May 2026 in London, reaffirming FY2026 comparable operating profit guidance and putting the €1bn buyback and amended incentive plan rules to shareholders.
- 24 Apr 2026 — First buyback tranche completed. The initial €500m tranche finished, roughly two months after it began.
- 28 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 trading update. Revenue of €5,001m was up 6.7% reported and 9.4% fx-neutral on 970m unit cases, with Europe at €3,549m and APS at €1,452m; a first-half interim dividend of €0.82 was declared and FY2026 guidance reaffirmed.
- 28 May 2026 — AGM exposes a governance flashpoint. All resolutions passed, but the Takeover Panel Rule 9 waiver carried with only 75.39% of independent shareholder votes in favour and 24.61% against, against 99.21% support for the buyback authorities. The waiver caps Olive Partners' concert party interest at 41.4289% as buybacks shrink the share count.
- 02 Jul 2026 — Second buyback tranche announced. The final €500m tranche was set to commence on 6 July 2026 and run to 18 December 2026, executed by Goldman Sachs with a maximum of 42,289,442 shares.
- 04 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results beat but shares slip. Revenue of €10,724m was up 6.1% fx-neutral, comparable operating profit of €1,481m up 8.1% fx-neutral and comparable diluted EPS of €2.20 up 10.6%, with FY2026 guidance reaffirmed and €593m of the €1bn buyback complete at 31 July; the shares nevertheless fell on the day.
- 12 Aug 2026 — Routine incentive grant disclosed. An award of 9,172 performance share units to the Chief Public Affairs Officer was announced, alongside continuing transactions in own shares under the buyback programme.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 03 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 trading update, confirmed in the financial calendar published with the H1 2026 results. Expect revenue and volume only, plus declaration of the second-half interim dividend.
- Expected Nov 2026 — ex-dividend and record dates for the second-half interim dividend, following the FY2025 precedent of a 5 November declaration and 14 November record date.
- Expected Dec 2026 — payment of the second-half interim dividend, which was paid on 3 December in the prior year.
- 18 Dec 2026 — scheduled end of the second €500m buyback tranche, which may complete earlier.
- Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 preliminary results. FY2024 results were published on 14 February 2025 and FY2025 results on 17 February 2026.
- Expected Mar 2027 — 2026 Annual Report and Form 20-F filing, based on filings of 21 March 2025 and 13 March 2026.
- Expected May 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting, following AGMs held on 22 May 2025 and 28 May 2026.
- Expected 2027 — start of production at the new Philippines manufacturing facility.
- 01 Jan 2029 — deadline for every EU member state to operate a deposit return scheme for single-use plastic bottles and cans under the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation.
No new capital markets day has been announced; the most recent was held in Manila and announced on 14 May 2025, where the mid-term objectives of about 4% comparable fx-neutral revenue growth, about 7% comparable operating profit growth and a minimum €1.7bn of comparable free cash flow were set out.
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Last Updated: 20 August 2026
Booking Holdings is the largest online travel company in the world by gross bookings, running Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable across more than 220 countries and territories. In FY2025 it processed $186.1bn of gross bookings and 1,235 million room nights, converting those into $26,917m of revenue at a take rate of 14.5 per cent. Two things dominate the current picture. The company executed a 25-for-1 forward stock split on 2 April 2026, so every historic per-share figure below has been restated onto the post-split basis. And growth is decelerating: room-night growth has fallen from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025 to 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, and full-year 2026 guidance has now been cut twice. This report sets out what the filings actually say, section by section, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Exchange and ticker | Nasdaq Global Select Market, BKNG |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary — online travel agency / travel services |
| Headquarters | 800 Connecticut Avenue, Norwalk, Connecticut, USA |
| Incorporated | Delaware. Formed 1997; listed as priceline.com in 1999; renamed Booking Holdings Inc. on 21 February 2018 |
| Employees | Approximately 24,300 at 31 December 2025 (about 2,900 in the United States, about 21,400 elsewhere) per the FY2025 Form 10-K |
| CEO / Leadership | Glenn D. Fogel, President and Chief Executive Officer since 1 January 2017. CFO Ewout L. Steenbergen since 15 March 2024. Chair Robert J. Mylod, Jr. |
| Market cap | Approximately $160.0bn (751,380,500 shares per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page, at the $213.00 close on 19 August 2026) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $26,917m, up 13.4 per cent on FY2024 |
| GAAP net income (FY2025) | $5,404m |
| Gross bookings (FY2025) | $186.1bn, with 1,235 million room nights |
| Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025) | $9,937m, a 36.9 per cent margin |
| Dividend | $0.42 per share per quarter post-split. Q3 2026 dividend declared 4 August 2026, payable 30 September 2026 |
| Stock split | 25-for-1 forward split effected 2 April 2026; split-adjusted trading from 6 April 2026 |
Live price action for BKNG and the wider travel complex is on the ChartsView Live Charts page.
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Unmatched scale in a fragmented market: FY2025 gross bookings of $186.1bn compare with $119.6bn at Expedia Group and $91.3bn at Airbnb, and 1,235 million room nights against Airbnb's 533 million nights and seats. Scale buys supply density, which buys conversion.
- A take rate that will not break: revenue as a percentage of gross bookings has moved less than 40 basis points in five years, from 14.31 per cent in FY2021 to 14.46 per cent in FY2025. Margin expansion has come from operating leverage rather than from squeezing partners, and adjusted EBITDA margin has risen from 26.5 per cent to 36.9 per cent over the same span.
- Cash generation and a shrinking share count: FY2025 free cash flow was $9,086m on the company's own definition, 33.8 per cent of revenue. The company paid $6,440m for buybacks in FY2025 and a further $7,758m in the first half of 2026, including a record $3.7bn in Q2 2026, with $14.5bn of authorisation remaining at 30 June 2026.
- Self-help is being raised, not cut: the Transformation Program target was lifted again on 4 August 2026, from about $550m to about $650m of annual run-rate savings by the end of 2027, with the incremental $100m attributed mainly to procurement.
Bear Case
- Guidance has been cut twice in six months: FY2026 gross bookings and revenue growth guidance went from low double digits on 18 February 2026, to high single digits to low double digits on 28 April 2026, to high single digits on 4 August 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is no longer guided to grow faster than revenue.
- Room-night growth is the slowest since the pandemic: 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, down from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025, with Q3 2026 guided to 3 to 5 per cent. Flight tickets grew only 3.7 per cent in Q2 2026 against 44.2 per cent a year earlier, and rental car days fell 6.5 per cent.
- GAAP earnings growth is not operating growth: Q2 2026 GAAP EPS rose 131 per cent, but that includes a $195m foreign-exchange gain on Euro-denominated debt against a $961m loss in Q2 2025. Adjusted net income rose 8 per cent. The same distortion runs through Q1 2026.
- Open-ended European litigation with no meaningful accrual: the Dutch collective damages action over hotel rate parity had expanded to 10,783 hotels by 30 July 2026 from 3,087 in January, with a further expansion expected. Booking states accrued amounts are not material; the tell is that standby letters of credit and bank guarantees rose to $1.3bn at 30 June 2026 from $874m six months earlier.
3. Business Segments
Booking Holdings reports a single operating segment. Revenue is disaggregated by type rather than by brand or geography, and the FY2025 split below is taken from the FY2025 results release.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Merchant revenues — $17,755m | 66.0% | Bookings where Booking collects the traveller's payment itself and remits the accommodation net of commission. Captures payment economics, funds Genius loyalty pricing and creates float. Merchant gross bookings were $130.0bn in FY2025 and grew 14.5 per cent in Q2 2026. |
| Agency revenues — $7,968m | 29.6% | The traditional model: the traveller pays the accommodation directly and Booking invoices commission after stay. Agency gross bookings were $56.1bn in FY2025 and declined 3.3 per cent in Q2 2026 as volume migrates to merchant. |
| Advertising and other — $1,194m | 4.4% | KAYAK and OpenTable advertising and referral revenue, plus restaurant reservation fees. Now also the home of BKNG Ads, the unified advertising platform launched 21 May 2026 across Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda. |
The mix has inverted in five years. In FY2021 agency was 60.8 per cent of a $10,958m revenue base and merchant only 33.7 per cent. Booking describes five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable. A $457m impairment of KAYAK goodwill and certain intangibles was taken in Q3 2025, attributed to lower forecast cash flows as customer acquisition costs rise for meta-search. The geographic note in the 10-K reports revenue by the domicile of the legal entity booking it rather than by traveller location, with the great majority booked through Booking.com B.V. in the Netherlands, so it is not a useful demand indicator.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Booking is a marketplace that takes a commission on travel it does not own. Gross bookings are the value of travel reserved through its platforms; revenue is the commission and payment economics retained on top. In FY2025 that was $26,917m of revenue on $186.1bn of gross bookings, a 14.46 per cent take rate. Because the company owns no hotels, aircraft or cars, incremental volume drops through at very high margin, which is why adjusted EBITDA margin has climbed 10.4 percentage points in four years while the take rate barely moved.
The network effect, and where it is thin. Supply density attracts travellers and traveller volume attracts supply. The measurable evidence of the moat is the direct channel: over the trailing four quarters to Q2 2026 the mix of room nights booked directly was a mid-fifties percentage. The wording matters, though. In Q3 and Q4 2025 the company said the direct mix was "increasing year over year"; in Q2 2026 it said only that it was "similar to last year". The direct-channel improvement has stalled.
Marketing is the moat's price. Marketing expense was $8,186m in FY2025, 30.4 per cent of revenue and 4.4 per cent of gross bookings, comfortably the largest cost line. The FY2025 10-K states performance marketing relates primarily to online search engines, primarily Google. That is a structural dependency on a company that is also building competing travel products.
The connected trip and the payments shift. Management's strategy is to sell flights, cars and attractions alongside accommodation, and to take payment itself. Payment facilitation reached about 73 per cent of gross bookings in Q2 2026. The mechanical consequence is float: deferred merchant bookings rose from $5,270m at 31 December 2025 to $10,121m at 30 June 2026. Flight tickets grew from 49 million in FY2024 to 68 million in FY2025, though the rate of growth collapsed to 3.7 per cent in Q2 2026.
Artificial intelligence, both ways. The Booking.com app inside ChatGPT was extended to car rentals on 20 May 2026, and Google's agentic hotel booking entered United States testing on 7 August 2026 with Booking Holdings among the first partners. Management confirmed around 5 August 2026 that bookings originating from artificial-intelligence chatbots remain below 1 per cent of volume.
5. Financial Health
All figures below come from Booking Holdings quarterly and annual results releases and Form 10-K and 10-Q filings. Per-share figures for FY2021 to FY2025 have been restated for the 25-for-1 forward split effected 2 April 2026 and are therefore comparable with the current share price.†
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 10,958 | +61.2% | $1.13 | $1.83 | $0.00 | $8,937m |
| FY2022 | 17,090 | +56.0% | $3.05 | $3.99 | $0.00 | $11,985m |
| FY2023 | 21,365 | +25.0% | $4.70 | $6.09 | $0.00 | $12,223m |
| FY2024 | 23,739 | +11.1% | $6.91 | $7.48 | $1.40 | $14,853m |
| FY2025 | 26,917 | +13.4% | $6.62 | $9.12 | $1.54 | $16,856m |
† As reported before the split, FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS was $165.57 and adjusted EPS $228.06; the post-split conversion reproduces the company's own retroactive restatement to the cent. Long-term debt is the non-current balance from the SEC XBRL companyfacts series (tag LongTermDebtNoncurrent), excluding the current portion, which was $1,880m at 31 December 2025. The dividend was initiated with the Q4 2023 results on 22 February 2024, so FY2021 to FY2023 are correctly zero rather than unavailable.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (reported 4 Aug 2026) | 7,352 | $2.54 | $2.53 |
| Q1 2026 (reported 28 Apr 2026) | 5,532 | $1.14 | $1.36 |
| Q4 2025 (reported 18 Feb 2026) | 6,349 | $1.95 | $1.77 |
| Q3 2025 (reported 28 Oct 2025) | 9,008 | $3.98 | $3.38 |
| Q2 2025 (reported 29 Jul 2025) | 6,798 | $2.22 | $1.10 |
| FY2025 total | 26,917 | $9.12 | $6.62 |
Q3 is structurally the largest quarter because agency commissions are recognised at check-in; Q3 2025 alone carried a 47.0 per cent adjusted EBITDA margin. A single quarter should never be annualised. On the balance sheet, cash and equivalents were $17,214m at 30 June 2026 with no short-term investments line, against short-term debt of $2,000m and long-term debt of $18,180m, so total debt was $20,180m and net debt $2,966m. Total stockholders' equity was negative $10,783m, deepened from negative $5,578m at 31 December 2025. That is a capital-structure outcome, not distress: treasury stock stood at $62,129m against retained earnings of $43,046m, so cumulative buybacks simply exceed cumulative retained profit. Book value and return on equity are meaningless metrics for this company. Operating cash flow was $9,409m in FY2025 against capital expenditure of $322m, and $6,934m against $183m in the first half of 2026.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately $160.0bn (751,380,500 shares from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page at the $213.00 close on 19 August 2026). Note that several data feeds still carry the stale Q1 2026 count of 774,878,436 and therefore print about $165bn. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | Approximately 23.6x ($213.00 / TTM GAAP diluted EPS of $9.04, being $3.38 + $1.77 + $1.36 + $2.53 for the four quarters to 30 June 2026). On the company's TTM adjusted EPS of $9.61 the multiple is approximately 22.2x. Note that GAAP earnings in both 2026 quarters were flattered by foreign-exchange gains on Euro debt. |
| P/E (forward) | Approximately 20.5x on management's own FY2026 guidance of low-to-mid-teens adjusted EPS growth on FY2025's $9.12, implying roughly $10.35. On the FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS of $12.38 carried by market data feeds the multiple is approximately 17.2x. |
| P/S (TTM) | Approximately 5.7x ($160.0bn / TTM revenue of $28,241m, being $9,008m + $6,349m + $5,532m + $7,352m). |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | Approximately 15.6x (EV ~$162.0bn / TTM adjusted EBITDA of $10,364m, summed from the four reported quarters). On a GAAP build the figure is approximately 16.1x: TTM GAAP operating income of $9,284m plus depreciation and amortisation of roughly $0.79bn. FY2025 D&A was $768m on the wider income-statement basis and $623m on the narrower cash-flow add-back; the wider figure is used here. |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $162.0bn (market cap ~$160.0bn + total debt $20,180m − cash and equivalents $17,214m, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet. There is no short-term investments line). |
| P/FCF | Approximately 17.6x on FY2025 free cash flow of $9,086m (operating cash flow $9,409m less capital expenditure $322m), and approximately 16.8x on trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of roughly $9.5bn. |
| 52-week high | $231.80 intraday; $226.92 on a closing basis |
| 52-week low | $150.14 intraday; $153.74 on a closing basis |
| Short interest (% of float) | 3.16 per cent of float, being 23,687,573 shares on the 31 July 2026 settlement date. Low, and not a contested short position. |
| Days to cover | Approximately 3.8 days on the short ratio carried in market data feeds; MarketBeat computes approximately 4.1 days on a 6.05 million share average daily volume. |
| Price/book | Not meaningful. Shareholders' equity was negative $10,783m at 30 June 2026 because cumulative buybacks exceed cumulative retained earnings. |
7. What Are They Building
Three programmes account for most of what Booking Holdings is investing in behind the reported numbers.
Booking Partner Services. The business-to-business units of Agoda, Booking.com and Priceline are being merged onto Agoda's technology stack under a single brand. The consolidation was reported on 10 July and 6 August 2026, Agoda chief executive Omri Morgenshtern was named to lead it on 10 August 2026, and the unit is due to become a legal entity in January 2027. Business-to-business distribution is the part of the industry least exposed to consumer search behaviour.
BKNG Ads. Launched 21 May 2026, this unifies advertising inventory across Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda into a single platform. It is an attempt to build a high-margin revenue line off traffic the group already owns, and it sits in the advertising and other category that was only 4.4 per cent of FY2025 revenue.
Agentic and conversational distribution. Booking is deliberately present on both sides of the artificial-intelligence question. It supplies inventory into ChatGPT, extended from accommodation to car rentals on 20 May 2026, and it is among the first partners in Google's agentic hotel booking test that began on 7 August 2026. The strategic bet is that being the supply layer inside someone else's assistant is better than being disintermediated by it.
Alongside these, the Transformation Program continues: about $550m of run-rate savings had been achieved by February 2026 and the target was raised to about $650m by the end of 2027 on 4 August 2026, with the incremental amount coming mainly from procurement.
8. Competitive Landscape
Market capitalisations below were re-checked live at the close on 19 August 2026 rather than taken from earlier in the year.
| Peer | Market cap (Aug 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Airbnb (ABNB) | $109.9bn | FY2025 gross booking value $91.3bn, up 12 per cent, on 533.0 million nights and seats booked; revenue $12.2bn. In Q2 2026 nights and seats grew 10 per cent and gross booking value 16 per cent, both faster than Booking's alternative accommodation growth of 4 per cent. |
| Expedia Group (EXPE) | $39.2bn | FY2025 gross bookings $119,590m, up 8 per cent, and revenue $14,733m. Q2 2026 gross bookings grew 12 per cent to $33.93bn on 111.5 million booked room nights. |
| Trip.com Group (TCOM) | $29.3bn | FY2025 net revenue of RMB 62.4bn, about $8.9bn, up 17 per cent. Q1 2026 revenue grew 17 per cent, but management guided Q2 2026 growth down sharply to a range of about 3 to 8 per cent. |
| MakeMyTrip (MMYT) | $5.8bn | Fiscal year to 31 March 2026 gross bookings of $10,390.8m, up 10.4 per cent in constant currency, the first year above $10bn; revenue $1,044.0m. |
| Tripadvisor (TRIP) | $1.2bn | FY2025 revenue $1,891m, up 3 per cent and a record. Q2 2026 revenue then fell about 7 per cent to $441.9m with Hotels and Other down about 21 per cent, which the company attributed to search and artificial-intelligence headwinds. |
Hotel groups compete for the same booking through their own loyalty channels rather than for the same listing. Marriott Bonvoy passed 295 million members at 30 June 2026 from about 271 million at 31 December 2025, and Hilton Honors reached 260 million at the same date. Neither company currently discloses a direct-booking percentage; Marriott's often-quoted 75 per cent United States and 68 per cent global figures are loyalty-member room nights, which is a different measure.
The clearest competitive gap in the numbers is alternative accommodation. Booking.com grew that category 4 per cent in Q2 2026, down from about 10 per cent in Q3 2025, while Airbnb grew nights and seats 10 per cent. The clearest structural threat is Google, which discloses no travel revenue but is simultaneously Booking's largest marketing channel and the operator of a competing agentic booking product.
9. Insider Activity
Chief executive Glenn D. Fogel has led Booking Holdings since 1 January 2017 and also runs Booking.com. Across the six months to 20 August 2026 there was not a single open-market purchase by any officer or director, and every disclosed open-market sale was executed under a pre-existing Rule 10b5-1 plan. Aggregate open-market disposals were roughly 174,600 shares for about $32.6m on a post-split basis. Two of the largest sales landed on 17 August 2026.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter J. Millones (EVP, General Counsel) | 17 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 50,050 | $204.91–$212.88 | $10,390,069 | Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 26 Nov 2024 |
| Vanessa A. Wittman (Director) | 17 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 375 | $211.00 | $79,125 | Rule 10b5-1 |
| Ewout L. Steenbergen (CFO) | 12 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 20,000 | $208.65–$212.54 | $4,220,516 | Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 13 May 2026 |
| Robert J. Mylod, Jr. (Chair, via Annox Capital) | 05 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale (indirect) | 1,000 | $206.70 | $206,700 | Rule 10b5-1 |
| Robert J. Mylod, Jr. (Chair, via Annox Capital) | 29 Jul 2026 | Open-market sale (indirect) | 5,000 | $200.00 | $1,000,000 | Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 7 Aug 2025 |
| Peter J. Millones (EVP, General Counsel) | 26 May 2026 | Open-market sale | 62,500 | $162.96–$165.56 | Approximately $10.2m | Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 26 Nov 2024 |
| Glenn D. Fogel (CEO) | 15 Apr 2026 | Open-market sale | 16,726 | $182.99–$186.01 | Approximately $3,097,000 | Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 9 Dec 2024 |
Chief financial officer Steenbergen's 12 August 2026 sale reduced his direct holding by about a quarter, from 79,794 shares to 59,794, under a plan adopted only three months earlier. Separately, large code-F dispositions on 4 March 2026 were tax withholding on vesting rather than sales, including 8,368 pre-split shares for Fogel worth about $34.8m. The pattern is routine diversification by a heavily equity-compensated team, but the complete absence of buying is worth recording.
10. Key Risks
- European rate-parity damages litigation: the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled on 19 September 2024 that neither wide nor narrow parity clauses are ancillary restraints. The Dutch collective action backed by HOTREC was filed on 30 January 2026 for 3,087 hotels, expanded on 30 July 2026 to 10,783, closes for registration on 11 September 2026 and is expected to reach roughly 18,000 hotels. A Berlin court held Booking jointly liable to 1,099 accommodation providers on 16 December 2025 without quantifying damages. Booking states accrued amounts are not material, while its standby letters of credit and bank guarantees rose to $1.3bn at 30 June 2026 from $874m at 31 December 2025.
- The Spanish CNMC fine: a €413.24m penalty was imposed on 29 July 2024 for two abuse-of-dominance infringements. Booking appealed on 30 October 2024 and the Audiencia Nacional suspended the entire decision including payment in February 2025. The amount is fully accrued and carried at $472m at 30 June 2026, but the merits have not been decided and the scope of the suspension is itself disputed.
- United States regulatory escalation: the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q disclosed for the first time that Federal Trade Commission staff have told Priceline they intend to recommend a complaint against Priceline and a business-to-business affiliate over disclosures, fees, customer support and billing. No complaint has been filed and no amount is accrued. The precedent for cost is the $9.5m Texas Attorney General settlement of 19 August 2025 over undisclosed mandatory fees.
- Demand deceleration and geopolitics: room-night growth fell from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025 to 5.9 per cent in Q1 2026 to 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, with Q3 2026 guided to 3 to 5 per cent. Management attributes this to indirect effects of the Middle East conflict, specifically elevated fares, reduced flight capacity and softer long-haul international demand, and has assumed those persist through Q3.
- Google dependency and artificial-intelligence disintermediation: marketing was $8,186m in FY2025, 30.4 per cent of revenue, spent primarily with search engines and primarily Google. The FY2025 10-K warns that third-party platforms increasingly incorporate generative features that may satisfy user intent without directing users to Booking. Tripadvisor's Hotels and Other revenue fell about 21 per cent in Q2 2026 on exactly that dynamic. Booking's mitigation is that chatbot-originated bookings remain below 1 per cent of volume and the direct channel is stable in the mid-fifties.
- Data security and privacy exposure: Booking.com confirmed on 13 April 2026 that unauthorised parties accessed reservation-linked personal data including names, emails, addresses, phone numbers and messages to accommodations. Reservation PINs were reset platform-wide and data protection authorities were notified. The company states it is likely to face follow-on investigations or litigation and may receive a fine. The GDPR maximum of 4 per cent of global annual revenue would be roughly $1.08bn on FY2025 revenue.
- Foreign exchange and tax volatility: most revenue is booked in Euro through Booking.com B.V. and the company carries substantial unhedged Euro debt, so remeasurement runs straight through the income statement: a $1,380m loss in FY2025 against a $528m gain in the first half of 2026. Separately, unrecognised tax benefits rose to $313m at 30 June 2026 from $250m six months earlier, an IRS audit of the 2018 deemed repatriation refund claim began in 2026, and the Q2 2026 effective tax rate rose to 23.8 per cent from 18.9 per cent.
11. Recent Developments
- 18 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and a 25-for-1 stock split. Revenue of $26.9bn up 13 per cent, gross bookings $186.1bn up 12 per cent, room nights 1,235m up 8 per cent, adjusted EPS up 22 per cent. The board also announced the first forward stock split in company history, with a 6 March record date, and raised the quarterly dividend 9.4 per cent.
- 04 Mar 2026 — Amsterdam court delivers an interim ruling largely favourable to Booking. The court held that the German hotels bringing parity counterclaims had still not evidenced that the clauses restricted competition, and questioned the narrow market definition used by the German competition authority.
- 02 Apr 2026 — The stock split takes effect. The charter amendment became effective at 4:01 p.m. Eastern, authorised shares rose from 1bn to 25bn, and split-adjusted trading began on 6 April 2026.
- 13 Apr 2026 — Booking.com confirms a data security incident. Unauthorised third parties accessed personal information tied to reservations. Reservation PINs were reset across the platform and data protection authorities notified. No Form 8-K Item 1.05 was filed.
- 22 Apr 2026 — Italy's AGCM opens a consumer-protection investigation. The regulator is examining whether the Partner Preferred and Partner Preferred Plus programmes mislead consumers because admission is driven primarily by commission paid rather than by quality. Inspections took place on 21 April with the Guardia di Finanza.
- 28 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results and the first guidance cut. Revenue of $5,532m up 16 per cent and a record $4.0bn returned to shareholders, but FY2026 growth guidance was reduced from low double digits to high single digits to low double digits, citing the Middle East conflict.
- 07 May 2026 and 11 May 2026 — $2.9bn of new debt issued. A $750m 5.375 per cent note due 2036, followed by three Euro tranches totalling €1.9bn due 2030, 2034 and 2039, largely funding the buyback programme.
- 21 May 2026 — BKNG Ads launched. A unified advertising platform spanning Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda.
- 30 Jul 2026 — The Dutch hotel collective action more than triples in size. The Stichting Hotel Claims Alliance action expanded from 3,087 to 10,783 hotels, with registration closing 11 September 2026 and a further expansion expected in the autumn.
- 04 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results, a record buyback and a second guidance cut. Revenue of $7,352m up 8 per cent, room nights up 5 per cent, adjusted EPS $2.54 up 15 per cent, and a record $3.7bn of repurchases. The Transformation Program target was raised to about $650m by end-2027. FY2026 gross bookings and revenue growth guidance was cut again to high single digits, and the Q2 10-Q disclosed the Federal Trade Commission staff's intention to recommend a complaint against Priceline.
- 07 Aug 2026 — Google's agentic hotel booking enters United States testing. Booking Holdings is among the first partners, alongside Expedia, Marriott, Wyndham and IHG.
- 10 Aug 2026 — Omri Morgenshtern named chief executive of Booking Partner Services. The Agoda chief executive will run the consolidated business-to-business unit while retaining his existing role.
No Form 8-K has been filed and no press release issued since 5 August 2026. Filings on and after 17 August 2026 comprise a Form 144 and two Form 4s covering the insider sales listed in Section 9. Scheduled macro events that move travel demand are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 11 Sep 2026 — record date for the $0.42 Q3 2026 dividend, and under T+1 settlement the effective ex-dividend date. The same day is the registration deadline for the Dutch hotel collective action.
- 30 Sep 2026 — Q3 2026 dividend of $0.42 per share paid, as declared on 4 August 2026.
- Expected Oct 2026 — France's DGCCRF final order requires Agoda to change certain business practices by October 2026. This is the only hard, company-disclosed regulatory deadline in the forward window.
- Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. The date has not been confirmed; the confirming press release has historically landed about four weeks ahead, and aggregators disagree between late October and early November 2026.
- Expected Nov 2026 — annual Digital Markets Act compliance report for Booking.com, inferred from the November 2024 and November 2025 cadence rather than announced.
- 22 Dec 2026 — deadline for Rule 14a-8 shareholder proposals for the 2027 annual meeting, per the 2026 proxy.
- Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and FY2026 results, on the company's established late-February pattern.
- TBC — merits rulings in the Spanish CNMC appeal, the Swiss Price Surveillance Office appeal, the German parity appeal and the Greek and Hungarian investigations. No hearing dates have been published for any of them.
Booking Holdings does not hold an investor day. Discussion of travel-sector positioning continues on the ChartsView Forum.
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