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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - Company Research

Last Updated: 1 May 2026

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is the world's largest membership warehouse-club retailer, operating 924 warehouses across 14 countries (as of Q2 fiscal 2026, ended 15 February 2026), with 82.1 million paid memberships, 147.2 million total cardholders, and a worldwide renewal rate of 89.7%. Fiscal 2025 (52 weeks ended 31 August 2025) net sales were $269.9 bn, up 8.1% year on year, with net income of $8.099 bn ($18.21 per diluted share). Q2 FY2026 net sales were $68.24 bn (+9.1%), comparable sales +7.4% (+5.7% excluding gasoline and FX), digitally-enabled comp +22.6%, EPS $4.58, and membership fee income $1.355 bn (+13.6%) — the first full quarter to capture annualisation of the September 2024 fee increase ($60→$65 standard / $120→$130 Executive). The 11.3% headline increase in March 2026 net sales ($28.41 bn for the 5 weeks ended 5 April 2026) confirms momentum into Q3. Kirkland Signature private label sales reached approximately $90 bn in calendar 2025 — roughly 33% of merchandise sales and the heart of Costco's value moat. CEO Ron Vachris (appointed 1 January 2024) has guided fiscal 2026 to 28 net new warehouse openings as part of a longer-term cadence of 30+ openings per year. The next monthly sales release (April retail period) is due Wednesday 7 May 2026 and Q3 FY26 earnings are expected on 28 May 2026. For live pricing see our live charts, upcoming releases on the economic calendar, and discussion on the ChartsView forum.

1. Company Snapshot

CompanyCostco Wholesale Corporation
TickerNASDAQ: COST (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100)
Sector / IndustryConsumer Staples / Discount & Membership Warehouse Retail
HQ999 Lake Drive, Issaquah, Washington 98027, USA
President & CEORon M. Vachris (since 1 January 2024; previously President & COO)
CFOGary Millerchip (since March 2024; ex-Kroger CFO)
ChairmanHamilton E. "Tony" James (Chair since August 2017)
Co-foundersJim Sinegal (co-founder, retired from board January 2018) & Jeffrey Brotman (d. 2017)
Founded1983 (Costco); merged 1993 with Price Club (founded 1976)
Employees~362,000 (FY2025; includes ~227,000 in the U.S.)
Warehouses924 globally (Q2 FY26; 634 U.S. & PR, 114 Canada, 42 Mexico, 37 Japan, 29 UK, 20 Korea, 15 Australia, 14 Taiwan, 7 China, 5 Spain, 3 France, 2 Sweden, 1 Iceland, 1 New Zealand)
Paid memberships82.1 million (Q2 FY26)
Cardholders (total)147.2 million (Q2 FY26)
Worldwide renewal rate89.7%
U.S. & Canada renewal rate92.1%
Fiscal year endSunday closest to 31 August (52 / 53-week fiscal year)
Share price (1 May 2026)~$1,015.10
52-week range$844.06 — $1,067.08
Market cap (1 May 2026)~$450 bn
FY2025 net sales$269.9 bn (+8.1%)
FY2025 operating income$10.383 bn
FY2025 net income / diluted EPS$8.099 bn / $18.21
Q2 FY2026 net sales / EPS$68.24 bn (+9.1%) / $4.58 (+13.9%)
Quarterly dividend$1.47 per share (raised April 2026 from $1.30); $5.88 annualised; ex-div 1 May 2026, pay 15 May 2026
Last special dividend$15.00 per share, paid 12 January 2024 (~$6.7 bn aggregate)
Websitecostco.com / investor.costco.com

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull CaseBear Case
Membership flywheel intact: 82.1 m paid members, 147.2 m cardholders, 89.7% worldwide renewal, 92.1% U.S./Canada renewal — recurring fee revenue $1.355 bn in Q2 FY26 (+13.6%) and accelerating as the September 2024 price hike annualises through fiscal 2026.Valuation premium: trades at trailing P/E ~55× and forward P/E in the high-40s; ~3× the warehouse-club peer average. Even Costco's own historical multiple compression has never gone far before snapping back, but the absolute multiple leaves no slack for a comp miss.
Comp acceleration: total-company comp +7.4% in Q2 FY26 and +9.4% in March 2026 (5-week period), with digitally-enabled comp +22.6% in Q2 and +23.3% in March. Strong throughput in a "premium-tilt" macro.Tariff exposure: a meaningful share of Kirkland Signature SKUs and non-foods imports come from China and Southeast Asia. CEO Vachris flagged on the Q2 FY26 call that tariffs "remain extremely fluid" and IEEPA tariffs have been replaced with new global tariffs for at least 150 days — non-foods inflation is running slightly higher.
Kirkland Signature is the moat: ~$90 bn in 2025 sales (~33% of merchandise revenue) generates premium-private-label margins and sub-name-brand pricing that traditional grocers cannot match.Sam's Club is gaining: Walmart-owned Sam's Club ($90.2 bn FY25 sales) is opening 15 clubs/year and posting 6%+ comp; BJ's is opening 25–30 clubs over two years. Costco's relative-share lead (~62% of U.S. warehouse-club sales) has been remarkably stable but competitive intensity is rising.
Warehouse pipeline: 28 net new warehouses planned in FY26 (~$6.5 bn capex) with management targeting 30+/year thereafter; first Canadian Business Centres opening; international footprint adds incremental member runway.E-commerce penetration still trails: digitally-enabled comp is up sharply but online is still a single-digit share of sales; Walmart and Target have larger e-com revenue bases. Same-day via Instacart and Uber Eats helps but margin profile is below in-warehouse.
Pricing-authority playbook: Costco actively lowered prices on eggs, cheese, coffee, paper products, textiles, bedding and cookware in Q2 FY26 to pass tariff reductions through — reinforcing trust and renewal economics.Cannibalisation: 28 openings per year inevitably draws sales from existing nearby clubs; new-warehouse productivity ramp also drags average per-warehouse comp until maturity.
Capital return: regular dividend raised to $1.47/quarter ($5.88 annualised, +13% in April 2026); five special dividends since 2012 (last $15.00 in January 2024 = ~$6.7 bn). Buybacks active. Net cash position.Membership-fee saturation: U.S. price increase already taken; international fee actions historically lag. Once the September 2024 hike fully annualises (~late 2026), MFI growth reverts toward member-count growth (~5%) rather than the current ~14%.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

Costco operates large warehouse-format clubs that sell a tightly curated assortment (~3,800 SKUs vs. ~30,000 at a typical supermarket) of high-volume, value-priced groceries, household goods, fresh foods, and ancillary services. The product is the membership. Customers pay an annual fee — $65 for a Gold Star (standard) membership in the U.S./Canada and $130 for an Executive Membership which adds a 2% reward (capped at $1,250/year) on most purchases. In return they get access to warehouses where margins on merchandise are deliberately capped at low-double-digits to maximise member value. Membership fees are nearly pure profit and fund the operating leverage that makes the model work.

The Executive tier (now ~47% of paid members and ~73% of net sales according to company commentary) is the strategic centre of gravity: higher annual fee, double the reward incentive, and an explicit driver of trip frequency and basket size. Costco has spent fiscal 2025 and 2026 actively converting Gold Star members to Executive and pushing the 2% reward as a retention tool.

FY2025 revenue mix (~$275.2 bn total revenue including membership fees):

SegmentFY2025 revenue% of totalDetail
Foods & Sundries~$109.6 bn~39.8%Dry grocery, snacks, candy, beverages, tobacco, cleaning supplies, paper products
Non-Foods~$71.2 bn~25.9%Apparel, hardlines, home, electronics, toys, seasonal, health & beauty
Warehouse Ancillary & Other~$51.2 bn~18.6%Gasoline (~$25 bn / ~10% of net sales), pharmacy, optical, hearing aids, food court, tire installation, travel
Fresh Foods~$38.0 bn~13.8%Meat, produce, deli, bakery, prepared
Membership Fees~$5.32 bn~1.9%~80%+ of operating income on a standalone basis

The Foods & Sundries / Fresh Foods / Non-Foods split has been remarkably stable; the variable line is Warehouse Ancillary & Other, which moves with the gasoline price. Membership fees are tiny as a percent of revenue but disproportionately important to profit — in FY25 they were $5.32 bn against operating income of $10.38 bn, meaning roughly half of operating profit is structurally underwritten by recurring fees.

Revenue Mix — FY2025 (~$275.2 bn total) FY2025 $275 bn Foods & Sundries 39.8% Non-Foods 25.9% Warehouse Ancillary 18.6% Fresh Foods 13.8% Membership Fees 1.9%

4. The Business Model

How they make money. Two stacked revenue streams: (i) low-margin merchandise sales at scale, with merchandise margins held intentionally low (warehouse-format gross margin is structurally below traditional retail at roughly 11–12%); and (ii) high-margin recurring membership fees (close to 100% gross margin). The model only works because membership renews at very high rates — 92.1% in the U.S./Canada and 89.7% worldwide as of Q2 FY26 — turning the fee into a near-annuity.

Membership fee economics. The September 2024 price increase was the first in seven years: standard Gold Star fee rose from $60 to $65 (+8.3%); Executive Membership rose from $120 to $130 (+8.3%) with the maximum 2% reward simultaneously raised from $1,000 to $1,250 to soften the increase for power users. The hike applied to roughly 52 m memberships, of which slightly more than half are Executive. Membership fee revenue (MFI) growth has therefore stair-stepped up: $5.32 bn in FY25, $1.72 bn in Q4 FY25 (+14% YoY), $1.355 bn in Q2 FY26 (+13.6% YoY). The annualisation completes around Q1 FY27 (autumn 2026); thereafter MFI growth reverts toward member-count and Executive-mix growth (low- to mid-single digits ex-pricing).

Merchandise margin and pricing posture. Costco's gross margin in Q2 FY26 expanded modestly — gross margin ex-gasoline-deflation was up 11 basis points. In Q2, the company actively reduced prices on eggs, cheese, coffee, paper products and selected tariff-affected textiles, bedding and cookware. CEO Vachris's stated posture on the call: "we always want to be the first to lower prices and the last to raise them." Non-foods inflation was running slightly higher in the quarter (partly tariff-driven).

Kirkland Signature: the moat. Kirkland is the in-house brand sold across food, beverage, household, apparel, electronics, supplements, and even some apparel categories. Approximate 2025 sales: $90 bn — equivalent to roughly 33% of merchandise revenue and up ~$15 bn vs. 2024. Kirkland delivers higher Costco gross margin than the equivalent name-brand product while undercutting that name brand on shelf, an asymmetric value transfer that compounds as Kirkland's sales mix grows. Vachris noted on the Q2 FY26 call that Kirkland penetration is "approaching 33%" with select categories materially higher.

Capital intensity. Costco's capex runs ~$5–6 bn annually for new warehouses, relocations, depot expansion and IT — a high absolute number but small relative to revenue (~2–2.4% of net sales). The fiscal 2026 plan references ~$6.5 bn of total capital deployment.

Capital allocation. Costco has paid five special dividends — $7 (2012), $5 (2015), $7 (2017), $10 (2020), $15 (paid January 2024, ~$6.7 bn aggregate). Regular dividend raised in April 2026 to $1.47 per quarter ($5.88 annualised, +13% YoY). Quarterly dividend ex-date 1 May 2026, pay 15 May 2026. Buybacks are modest in absolute scale. Net debt is minimal — the balance sheet is effectively net cash inclusive of investment securities.

Subsidy / regulatory dependency. Negligible. Costco does not rely on government tax credits, regulatory credits or subsidies for material revenue or profit. The dependency that does matter is gasoline regulation in member-state jurisdictions and tariff regime — both reduce reported gross margin if compressed, but do not threaten the core membership economics.

5. Financial Health

Five-year revenue and earnings trajectory:

Fiscal year (ends ~31 Aug)Net salesYoYOperating incomeNet incomeDiluted EPS
FY2021 (52w)$192.1 bn+17.5%$6.71 bn$5.01 bn$11.27
FY2022 (52w)$222.7 bn+16.0%$7.79 bn$5.84 bn$13.14
FY2023 (53w)$237.7 bn+6.7%$8.11 bn$6.29 bn$14.16
FY2024 (52w)$249.6 bn+5.0%$9.29 bn$7.37 bn$16.56
FY2025 (52w)$269.9 bn+8.1%$10.38 bn$8.10 bn$18.21

Last 5 quarters (net sales and gross margin):

QuarterPeriod endNet salesComp (total)Comp ex-FX/fuelDiluted EPSGross margin*
Q2 FY2516 Feb 2025$62.53 bn+6.8%+8.3%$4.02~10.8%
Q3 FY2511 May 2025$61.96 bn+5.7%+8.0%$4.28~11.0%
Q4 FY2531 Aug 2025$84.40 bn+5.7%~+5.0%$5.8711.13%
Q1 FY2623 Nov 2025$65.98 bn+6.4%+5.6%$4.50~11.2%
Q2 FY2615 Feb 2026$68.24 bn+7.4%+5.7%$4.58~11.2%

*Gross margin ex-gasoline-deflation up 11 bps in Q2 FY26 per the company; Q4 FY25 reported at 11.13% (+13 bps YoY). Approximate where the company has not disclosed an exact figure for the quarter.

Net Sales ($bn) and Gross Margin (%) by Quarter $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 10% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% $62.5 $62.0 $84.4 $66.0 $68.2 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25 Q1 26 Q2 26 Net sales ($bn) Gross margin (%) Net sales Gross margin

Cash, debt and share count. At fiscal year-end 31 August 2025 Costco reported $13.0 bn of cash and short-term investments against ~$5.8 bn of long-term debt — a net cash position of ~$7 bn. Diluted share count is ~444 m and has been broadly flat as buybacks roughly offset stock-based compensation. The 24-week year-to-date FY26 net income (Q1+Q2) was $4.04 bn ($9.08 EPS) on $134.22 bn of net sales (+8.7% YoY).

March 2026 monthly sales. The 5 weeks ended 5 April 2026 produced $28.41 bn of net sales (+11.3% YoY). Comparable sales: U.S. +8.7%, Canada +10.7%, Other International +11.9%, Total +9.4%; ex-gasoline and FX: U.S. +6.2%, Canada +5.4%, Other International +6.6%, Total +6.2%; digitally-enabled +23.3%. The company noted March had one fewer shopping day vs. last year due to the Easter calendar shift, negatively impacting both total and comp sales by approximately 1.5 percentage points. 31-week year-to-date net sales were $173.26 bn (+9.1%).

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data sourced 30 April–1 May 2026:

MetricValueNotes
Share price (1 May 2026)~$1,015.10Up ~1.6% on 30 Apr 2026 close
Market cap~$450 bn~444 m diluted shares
Enterprise value~$443 bnNet cash ~$7 bn
52-week high$1,067.08Set late 2025
52-week low$844.06Set during 2025 drawdown
Trailing P/E (FY25 EPS $18.21)~55.7×
FY26e P/E (24-week run-rate)~50×Approx., based on 24-week EPS $9.08 annualised
P/S (FY25 net sales)~1.67×$450 bn / $269.9 bn
EV/EBITDA (TTM)~33×FY25 EBITDA ~$13.5 bn
P/FCF (TTM)~50×FY25 FCF ~$9.0 bn
Dividend yield~0.58%$5.88 annualised / ~$1,015
Special dividends since 2012$7, $5, $7, $10, $15Last $15 paid 12 Jan 2024 (~$6.7 bn)
Short interest~1.5% of floatLow
Beta (5y)~0.85Defensive

Costco has historically traded at the highest multiple in mass-market retail. The premium has compounded with FY24/FY25 earnings strength: trailing P/E ~55× sits well above the ~25× warehouse-club peer average and above Costco's own 10-year average of ~35×. Whether that premium is justified is for the reader to judge against the membership-fee annuity, the Kirkland moat, the 92% U.S./Canada renewal rate and the 30+/year warehouse cadence.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

Warehouse expansion (FY26 plan). 28 net new openings expected in fiscal 2026, of which 4 had landed by Q2 FY26 (one U.S. relocation, one new U.S. site, two Canadian Business Centres). 18 more are scheduled to open through fiscal-year-end (~31 August 2026): roughly 15 in the U.S., 1 in Canada, 2 international. Total capex commitment for the year is ~$6.5 bn. Management has guided a longer-term cadence of 30+ openings per year. Recent April 2026 openings include North Visalia, California (anchoring the Carleton Acres master-planned community) and New Braunfels, Texas (~$37 m anchor warehouse).

First Canadian Business Centres. The Costco Business Centre format — a smaller-footprint, weekday-tilted club aimed at restaurants, offices and small-business buyers — opened its first two Canadian locations in Q2 FY26 (in Winnipeg and the Greater Toronto Area). The format had previously been U.S. only.

Digital build-out. Q2 FY26 site traffic was +32% and app traffic was +45% YoY. Personalised product carousels alone drove $470 m of e-commerce sales in the quarter. Same-day delivery via Instacart and the Uber Eats partnership (live in select U.S., Canada, Mexico and Japan markets since May 2024; expanded through 2025 to additional locations) provide non-member access points and incremental fee revenue.

Costco Logistics (formerly Innovel). Acquired in March 2020 for $1 bn, this is the in-house big-and-bulky last-mile delivery network that handles ~85% of Costco's big-and-bulky e-commerce LTL shipments and reaches ~90% of U.S. households and Puerto Rico. The asset is a structural advantage for furniture, mattresses, appliances, TVs and patio categories — it gives Costco both delivery speed (4-day predeployment vs. ~14 days previously) and retained margin that would otherwise leak to a third-party carrier.

Costco Travel, Optical, Pharmacy, Hearing, Tire, Gas, Food Court. The "ancillary" set is the under-marketed engine of trip frequency. Gas alone is roughly 10% of Costco's net sales (~$25 bn). Pharmacy, optical, hearing aids and tire installation are member-exclusive and generate near-100% renewal-uplift among regular users. Costco Travel is a member-only travel agency that bundles cruises, hotels and rental cars at member-rate pricing.

Tariff response. CEO Vachris addressed tariff strategy on the Q2 FY26 call (5 March 2026): "We always want to be the first to lower prices and the last to raise them ... when legal challenges have recovered charges passed on in some form to our members, our commitment will be to find the best way to return this value to our members through lower prices and better values." He also flagged the ongoing volatility: "the recently eliminated IEEPA tariffs have now been replaced with new global tariffs for at least the next 150 days." The company is actively repricing tariff-affected SKUs (textiles, bedding, cookware) downward where input costs have moved.

Membership fee runway. The September 2024 fee increase (Standard $60→$65; Executive $120→$130; Executive 2% reward cap $1,000→$1,250) annualises through fiscal 2026; subsequent international fee actions tend to lag U.S. pricing by 9–18 months in any cycle. Beyond annualisation, the next fee-increase cycle would be a multi-year decision.

8. Competitive Landscape

Costco's competitive set sits across three tiers: (i) U.S. warehouse-club peers (Sam's Club, BJ's, PriceSmart for Latin America), (ii) general mass / discount (Walmart, Target, Aldi, Lidl), and (iii) e-commerce / marketplace (Amazon, Walmart.com).

CompetitorFormatLatest sales / sizeNotes
CostcoWarehouse club$269.9 bn FY25; 924 warehousesSubject company; ~62% U.S. warehouse-club share
Sam's Club (Walmart)Warehouse club~$90.2 bn FY25 sales; ~600 U.S. clubs~31% U.S. warehouse-club share; 15 clubs/year build
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)Warehouse club, Northeast~$21 bn FY24 sales; 240+ clubs in 20 states~7% U.S. warehouse-club share; 25–30 club builds over 2 years
Walmart (WMT)Mass / supercenter / online$681 bn FY25 revenue~10,500 stores worldwide; e-com leader vs. Costco
Target (TGT)Mass / specialty~$107 bn FY25 sales~1,950 U.S. stores; tilts more discretionary
Amazon (AMZN)E-commerce / Prime~$638 bn FY24 net salesPrime ~200 m members; direct membership-tier rival
PriceSmart (PSMT)Warehouse club, Latin America~$5 bn FY25 sales; ~57 clubsDifferent geography; small absolute size
U.S. Warehouse-Club Market Share (CFRA, 2025) Costco 62% Sam's Club 31% BJ's Wholesale 7% 0% 50% 100% U.S. warehouse-club market share FY25 absolute sales: Costco $269.9bn / Sam's Club $90.2bn / BJ's ~$21bn (incl. fuel) Costco worldwide; Sam's & BJ's U.S.-only. Share % is U.S. warehouse-club channel only. Source: CFRA U.S. warehouse-club channel estimate

UK competitive context. Costco UK runs 29 warehouses (membership-only). Direct UK competitors are limited — B&M (LSE: BME), Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury's and Lidl operate in adjacent grocery / discount formats but not the warehouse-club model. Makro, the closest historical UK warehouse-club analogue, exited the UK in 2012. The UK club-model competitive vacuum makes Costco UK incrementally attractive but caps its absolute scale at the membership opportunity in any given catchment.

Structural picture. The U.S. warehouse-club channel is structurally a 3-player oligopoly with Costco holding a 2x lead over Sam's Club and an 8x lead over BJ's by sales. The competitive dynamic is rational rather than aggressive on price (membership-driven economics align all three on per-member margin), but Sam's Club has been investing in technology (Scan & Go), small-format clubs and aggressive new-club openings (15/year) that narrow Costco's lead at the margin. BJ's continues to expand into Costco's underpenetrated southeast and middle America regions.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Ron M. Vachris — President & CEO since 1 January 2024. Joined Costco in 1982 (over 40 years' tenure); rose from forklift driver to executive vice president; promoted to President & COO in February 2022; succeeded Craig Jelinek as CEO at year-start 2024. Vachris's tenure to date has been characterised by continuity with the founder-era playbook: low everyday prices, membership-first economics, Kirkland penetration, methodical international and Business Centre expansion.

Gary Millerchip — Chief Financial Officer (March 2024). Hired from Kroger, where he had been CFO since April 2019. Brings grocery-focused capital-allocation experience and is the public voice on tariff and pricing strategy.

Craig Jelinek — Former CEO (2012–2023); retired from CEO role at end-2023 but remains on the board. Architect of the post-Sinegal continuity era.

Hamilton E. "Tony" James — Non-Executive Chairman (since August 2017). Former President & COO of Blackstone; on the Costco board since 1988; Lead Independent Director 2005–2017.

Jim Sinegal — Co-founder; CEO 1983–2012. Retired from the board in January 2018. Continues to be referenced as the cultural touchstone of the Costco operating model. The other co-founder, Jeffrey Brotman, served as Chairman until his death in August 2017.

Insider transactions, last 12 months (representative material trades). Costco insiders are predominantly net sellers via 10b5-1 plans, consistent with stock-based compensation vesting. There has been no widely-reported open-market discretionary purchase by an executive in the period.

DateInsiderActionSharesPriceValuePlan
1 April 2026Caton Frates (EVP)Sale700~$993~$695,10010b5-1 (per filing)
Late October 2025Gary Millerchip (CFO)RSU vest with sell-to-covern/d~$944.68n/dTax withholding (mandatory)
22 October 2025Director (one of multiple)RSU grant286n/an/aEquity compensation
11 March 2025Ron Vachris (CEO)Sale3,600~$945~$3.4 m10b5-1 (per filing)

Institutional ownership. Approximately 70%+ institutional. Largest holders: Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Capital Group. The float is large and liquid; insider ownership is low single-digit percent in aggregate (Costco is not founder-controlled).

10. Risks and Challenges

  • Valuation premium. Trailing P/E ~55× and EV/EBITDA ~33× are well above the warehouse-club peer set and above Costco's own 10-year average. The bull case has long been "expensive but justified" given the membership annuity and the renewal rate. Even modest comp deceleration would compress the multiple from a high base.
  • Tariff and supply-chain exposure. Approximately one-third of Costco's non-foods inventory historically sources from China and Southeast Asia. CEO Vachris flagged on the Q2 FY26 call that "the future impact of tariffs remains extremely fluid" and that IEEPA tariffs were replaced with "new global tariffs for at least the next 150 days." Non-foods inflation in Q2 was already running slightly higher partly because of tariff pass-through. Kirkland Signature international sourcing is similarly affected.
  • Membership-fee saturation risk. The September 2024 hike fully annualises by Q1 FY27. Once it does, MFI growth reverts toward member-count growth (low- to mid-single digits) absent another fee increase — which historically arrives every 5–7 years. The model does not rely on fee increases for growth, but the optics of decelerating MFI growth could pressure the multiple.
  • Cannibalisation from new openings. 28 net openings in FY26 (and 30+ thereafter) inevitably draws sales from existing nearby clubs. Per-warehouse comp tends to be diluted in the build-up year and the year of opening.
  • Sam's Club competitive intensity. Sam's Club is opening 15 clubs/year and putting meaningful technology investment into Scan & Go and the small-format Sam's Club Now stores. Recent quarterly comp has been competitive with Costco's. Costco's relative-share lead is stable today but is being tested.
  • E-commerce penetration trails Walmart and Target in absolute terms. Digitally-enabled comp is up sharply (+22.6% in Q2 FY26) but online remains a single-digit share of sales. Walmart.com and Amazon are larger online businesses; Costco's online economics are not yet proven on standalone P&L basis at the magnitudes those peers operate.
  • Gasoline-price volatility. Gas is roughly 10% of net sales; gasoline-price moves swing reported revenue and gross margin. Q4 FY25 saw gas-price deflation; the fiscal 2026 disclosures repeatedly carve out the gas effect on margin.
  • Foreign-exchange. ~25% of revenue is non-U.S.; FX movements are visible in monthly disclosures. Strong dollar pressures reported international growth.
  • Single-supplier concentration in private-label categories. Kirkland Signature relies on a tightly curated set of co-manufacturing partners; loss of a major Kirkland supplier would create category gaps that take time to refill.
  • Cybersecurity / payments. Large card-present and online retailer; data-breach risk is industry-standard but consequential at Costco's scale.
  • Macro / consumer trade-down. Costco is widely perceived as a beneficiary of consumer trade-down in tougher macro environments. The corollary risk is trade-up away from membership formats during expansionary periods, although historical evidence for that is thin.
  • Special-dividend timing. Costco has paid five special dividends since 2012. The market periodically prices in another. The next is a Board decision — not committed — and absent a special dividend in any given calendar year, total-return narrative leans on regular dividend growth (currently +13% YoY) and buybacks.

11. Recent Developments

Last 48 hours (29 April–1 May 2026)

  • 30 April 2026 — share price. COST closed +1.59% at $1,014.53; trading near the upper third of the 52-week range. Market cap ~$450 bn.
  • 1 May 2026 — ex-dividend date. Quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share (raised from $1.30 in April 2026); pay date 15 May 2026.
  • Approaching: April 2026 monthly sales release. Per Costco's standard cadence, April retail-month sales (4-week period ended 3 May 2026) will be released Wednesday 7 May 2026 around 4:15 PM PT.

Last 6 months

  • April 2026 — quarterly dividend raised. Board declared $1.47 per share (+13% from $1.30); $5.88 annualised; ex-div 1 May 2026; pay 15 May 2026.
  • 8 April 2026 — March monthly sales release. Net sales for the 5 weeks ended 5 April 2026: $28.41 bn (+11.3% YoY). Total comp +9.4% (+6.2% ex-FX/fuel); digitally-enabled +23.3%. 31-week YTD net sales $173.26 bn (+9.1%).
  • 5 March 2026 — Q2 FY26 results. Net sales $68.24 bn (+9.1%); EPS $4.58 (+13.9%); total comp +7.4% (+5.7% ex-FX/fuel); MFI $1.355 bn (+13.6%); 82.1 m paid members; 147.2 m cardholders; 89.7% worldwide renewal; 92.1% U.S./Canada renewal; 924 warehouses globally; reaffirmed 28 net openings in FY26. Digital site traffic +32%, app traffic +45%; personalised carousels drove $470 m of e-com sales. CEO Vachris addressed tariff strategy and price reductions on textiles, bedding, cookware.
  • Early February 2026 — February monthly sales release (5 March 2026 jointly with Q2 results) confirmed +7.0% comp ex-fuel/FX for the 4-week February period.
  • Early January 2026 — December monthly sales release. Holiday-period comp came in mid-single-digit positive (ex-FX/fuel) on a strong digital print.
  • 11 December 2025 — Q1 FY26 results. Net sales $65.98 bn (+8.2%); EPS $4.50 (+11.4%); total comp +6.4% (+5.6% ex-FX/fuel); digitally-enabled +20.5%. Reaffirmed warehouse cadence guidance.
  • October 2025 — FY25 10-K filed. FY25 net sales $269.9 bn (+8.1%); operating income $10.38 bn; net income $8.10 bn; EPS $18.21; 914 warehouses at year-end; 24 new warehouses opened in FY25.
  • 25 September 2025 — Q4 FY25 results. Net sales $84.4 bn (+8.0%); EPS $5.87; MFI $1.72 bn (+14% YoY).
  • 1 September 2024 — membership fee increase took effect. Standard $60→$65; Executive $120→$130; 2% reward cap raised to $1,250. The first increase since 2017; ~52 m memberships affected.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

DateEventNotes
1 May 2026Ex-dividend ($1.47/share)Pay date 15 May 2026
~7 May 2026April 2026 monthly sales release4 weeks ended 3 May 2026 (typical first-Wednesday cadence)
15 May 2026Quarterly dividend payment$1.47 per share
28 May 2026 (est.)Q3 FY2026 earnings12 weeks ended 10 May 2026
~4 Jun 2026May 2026 monthly sales release
~9 Jul 2026June 2026 monthly sales releaseTypically released alongside no Q-end
~6 Aug 2026July 2026 monthly sales release
Late Sep 2026 (est.)Q4 FY2026 / FY2026 full-year resultsFiscal year ends ~30 Aug 2026
Oct 2026 (est.)FY2026 10-K filing
~Q1 FY27Membership fee increase fully annualisesEnd of Sep-2024 hike year-on-year benefit
Annual (Jan)Annual Meeting of ShareholdersStandard governance items

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Disclaimer: This report is compiled from primary sources (company filings, earnings transcripts, press releases, monthly sales releases, regulatory filings) and is for information only. It does not contain analyst price targets, ratings or buy / sell / hold recommendations and is not investment advice. Always do your own research. ChartsView and the author may or may not hold positions in any securities mentioned.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
53 / 100

The central thesis. The report describes a mixed financial trajectory across the last five years with peer-comparable positioning on structural metrics. A dated catalyst within the next month will provide the nearest test of management guidance. The bull case and bear case presented by the report carry broadly comparable weight on the evidence compiled here.

What would confirm or break it. Recent news flow has been broadly mixed with a limited number of high-severity risks disclosed. Subsequent earnings landing in line with or above management guidance would reinforce the thesis; materialisation of the top disclosed risk — or any filing that fundamentally alters the growth or capital-return profile — would invalidate it. The deterministic rule engine classifies this evidence base as moderate.

Watchpoints

  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Tariff and supply-chain exposure." risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • InvalidatesAny disclosure that directly contradicts a material claim in the bull case.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
0 : 0
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Neutral
High-sev risks
1 of 12
Recent news
Mixed
Generated
1 May 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling (rule-derived summary — LLM unavailable). Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 1 May 2026.