Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - Company Research
Last Updated: 25 August 2026
Costco is finishing fiscal 2026 with its best sales year in a decade. Net sales through the first 48 weeks are up 10.1%, comparable sales are running near 9%, digital is compounding above 20%, and the company has just entered the Medicare Advantage market. It is also one of the most expensively rated large-cap retailers in the world, at roughly 49 times trailing earnings against Target on 17 and BJ's on 22. This report sets out what the filings show, without ratings or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Costco Wholesale Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | COST, Nasdaq Global Select Market |
| Sector | Consumer staples — membership warehouse club retail |
| Headquarters | Issaquah, Washington, United States |
| Fiscal year | 52 or 53 weeks ending the Sunday nearest 31 August; FY2026 ends 30 August 2026 and has not yet been reported |
| CEO / Leadership | Ron M. Vachris (President & Chief Executive Officer since 1 January 2024); Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer; Hamilton E. James, non-executive Chairman |
| Employees | Approximately 341,000 worldwide (FY2025 Form 10-K): 223,000 in the United States, 55,000 in Canada, 63,000 in other international markets |
| Revenue (FY2025, 52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $275,235m total revenue, comprising $269,912m of net sales and $5,323m of membership fees |
| Net income (FY2025) | Operating income $10,383m; GAAP diluted EPS $18.21 |
| Warehouses open | 933 worldwide as at 5 August 2026, including 641 in the United States and Puerto Rico and 115 in Canada |
| Paid members | 82.9 million paid households and approximately 149 million cardholders at Q3 FY2026, with 41.2 million Executive memberships |
| Market capitalisation (25 Aug 2026) | Approximately $430.8bn at $971.40 per share |
| Dividend | $1.47 per quarter, $5.88 annualised, raised 13.1% in April 2026 |
| Most recent results | Q3 FY2026, twelve weeks ended 10 May 2026, reported 28 May 2026 |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Sales are accelerating, not decelerating: Net sales over the first 48 weeks of FY2026 reached $273.55bn, up 10.1%, with Q3 FY2026 net sales up 11.6% and total comparable sales up 9.8%. This is Costco's strongest growth run in years and it is coming from a $275bn base.
- Membership fees are almost pure profit: FY2025 membership fee income of $5,323m sits against $10,383m of total operating income, so more than half of operating profit is a subscription with essentially no cost of goods. Fee income grew 10.7% in Q3 FY2026 to $1,373m.
- Executive membership is growing twice as fast as the base: Executive memberships reached 41.2 million at Q3 FY2026, up 9.6%, against total paid member growth of 4.1%. Executive members accounted for 73.6% of worldwide net sales in FY2025 and pay double the annual fee.
- Digital is compounding at more than double the group rate: Digitally enabled comparable sales grew 21.5% in Q3 FY2026 and 21.2% across the first 48 weeks, roughly 2.5 times the total-company rate, and e-commerce operations were extended to China during FY2026.
- The balance sheet is a fortress: At 10 May 2026 Costco held $19,996m of cash and short-term investments against $5,670m of total debt, a net cash position of $14,326m, and generated $11,133m of operating cash flow in 36 weeks.
Bear Case
- The valuation prices in perfection, and the company says so: The FY2025 10-K states directly that the share price "reflects high market expectations for our future operating results" and that any failure to meet them could cause the price to decline. At approximately 49 times trailing and 43 times forward earnings, against Target on 17 and Walmart on 38, there is little margin for error.
- Growth is coming from the lowest-margin parts of the business: Q3 FY2026 gross margin fell 21 basis points to 11.04% and core-on-core margin fell 9 basis points. Record gasoline volumes and gold bullion inflate revenue and comparable sales while diluting margin percentage; the 10-K notes explicitly that higher gasoline penetration lowers gross margin.
- Membership growth is slowing and renewal rates have slipped: Paid members grew only 4.1% against roughly 11% revenue growth, and both the US and Canada renewal rate of 92.2% and the worldwide rate of 89.7% sit below the FY2025 year-end levels of 92.3% and 89.8%. The September 2024 fee increase is now fully lapped and no further rise has been announced.
- Warehouse openings are running behind plan: The FY2025 10-K guided to up to 35 openings including five relocations in FY2026. With four weeks of the fiscal year left, Costco has added only 19 net new warehouses, from 914 to 933.
- The tariff windfall is contested and may never reach earnings: After the Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, Costco became eligible for refunds, and is now facing a proposed class action in the Western District of Washington alleging it raised prices to pass on those duties. Management says refunds will be recycled into lower prices rather than repaid, which means they do not fall to profit either.
3. Business Segments
Costco reports three geographic segments. The table below shows FY2025 total revenue including membership fees, taken from the segment note in the FY2025 Form 10-K.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| United States Operations | 72.7% ($200,046m) | 641 warehouses across the US and Puerto Rico plus costco.com; operating income $6,878m, a 3.44% margin |
| Canadian Operations | 13.4% ($36,923m) | 115 warehouses; the most profitable segment on margin, with operating income of $1,849m at 5.01% |
| Other International Operations | 13.9% ($38,266m) | 177 warehouses across Mexico, Japan, the UK, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Sweden, Iceland and New Zealand; operating income $1,656m at 4.33% |
By merchandise category, FY2025 net sales of $269,912m split as follows: Foods and Sundries $109,564m or 40.6%; Non-Foods $71,190m or 26.4%; Fresh Foods $37,988m or 14.1%; and warehouse ancillary and other businesses $51,170m or 19.0%, which covers petrol stations, pharmacy, optical, hearing aids, tyre fitting, the food court, e-commerce, business centres and travel. Core merchandise grew 10% in FY2025 while ancillary and other grew only 2%, because an 8% fall in the average price per gallon of fuel cut net sales by $2,329m.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Costco is a subscription business wearing the clothes of a retailer. It sells merchandise at a deliberately thin mark-up — gross margin was 11.04% in Q3 FY2026, roughly a third of a conventional supermarket — and takes its profit from the annual membership fee. FY2025 membership fee income of $5,323m against operating income of $10,383m means the fee, which carries no cost of goods, supplies more than half of operating profit. Every merchandising decision therefore optimises for member renewal rather than for gross margin on the item itself.
The moat is a self-reinforcing cost loop. Limited assortment, roughly a tenth of the stock-keeping units of a supermarket, concentrates purchasing volume into very large orders, which secures supplier terms nobody with a wider range can match. Pallet-based merchandising in an unfinished warehouse strips out labour and fixture cost. Those savings are handed back as price, which drives volume, which improves terms again. Renewal rates of 92.2% in the US and Canada are the visible output of that loop, and they are the hardest number in retail for a competitor to attack, because matching Costco on price means matching it on scale first.
Kirkland Signature and the margin offset. The FY2025 10-K states Costco expects to keep increasing private-label penetration and that Kirkland products generally earn higher margins than national brands. This is the principal structural offset to the drag from low-margin ancillary lines such as fuel and gold bullion, and it also deepens the moat, because a Kirkland item cannot be price-compared anywhere else.
What the model gives up. The same design that makes Costco defensible makes it slow. Growth requires physical warehouses, which cost capital and time: capital expenditure was $5,498m in FY2025 and is guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026. The 10-K itself warns that as the base grows and desirable sites become harder to secure, square footage growth becomes a comparatively less substantial component of growth.
5. Financial Health
Figures below are from Costco's Form 10-K filings and quarterly earnings releases, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Note that FY2023 was a 53-week year, which flatters its growth rate slightly. Long-term debt is the non-current balance at each fiscal year end.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (52 weeks to 29 Aug 2021) | 195,929 | +17.5% | $11.27 | $11.27† | $2.98 regular plus $10.00 special | $6,692m |
| FY2022 (52 weeks to 28 Aug 2022) | 226,954 | +15.8% | $13.14 | $13.14† | $3.38 | $6,484m |
| FY2023 (53 weeks to 3 Sep 2023) | 242,290 | +6.8% | $14.16 | $14.16† | $3.84 | $5,377m |
| FY2024 (52 weeks to 1 Sep 2024) | 254,453 | +5.0% | $16.56 | $16.56† | $4.36 regular plus $15.00 special | $5,794m |
| FY2025 (52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | 275,235 | +8.2% | $18.21 | $18.21† | $4.92 | $5,713m |
† Costco does not report an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings per share figure. Every quarterly and annual release presents GAAP net income and GAAP basic and diluted EPS only, so the GAAP figure is repeated in the adjusted column. The sole non-GAAP measure Costco discloses is comparable sales excluding the effects of petrol prices and foreign exchange. Management occasionally identifies discrete items — a $63m tax benefit in Q4 FY2024, a $72m stock-compensation tax benefit in Q1 FY2026 — but does not restate EPS for them.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (12 weeks to 10 May 2026) | $70,527m | $4.93† | $4.93 |
| Q2 FY2026 (12 weeks to 15 Feb 2026) | $69,597m | $4.58† | $4.58 |
| Q1 FY2026 (12 weeks to 23 Nov 2025) | $67,307m | $4.50† | $4.50 |
| Q4 FY2025 (16 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $86,156m | $5.87† | $5.87 |
| Q3 FY2025 (12 weeks to 11 May 2025) | $63,205m | $4.28† | $4.28 |
| FY2025 total (52 weeks to 31 Aug 2025) | $275,235m | $18.21† | $18.21 |
Costco's fourth quarter runs sixteen weeks rather than twelve, which is why Q4 FY2025 revenue and EPS are so much larger than the surrounding quarters. Comparable sales in Q3 FY2026 were 9.8% reported and 6.6% adjusted for petrol and currency, with the United States at 9.4% reported, Canada at 10.7% and other international at 11.2%.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 net cash from operating activities was $13,335m, capital expenditure $5,498m and depreciation and amortisation $2,426m, giving free cash flow of $7,837m. Through the first 36 weeks of FY2026 operating cash flow reached $11,133m against $9,468m a year earlier, with capital expenditure of $4,228m and depreciation and amortisation of $1,791m. At 10 May 2026 Costco held $18,946m of cash and $1,050m of short-term investments against $5,670m of long-term debt and no current portion, a net cash position of $14,326m. Total equity was $33,509m and total assets $86,430m.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately $430.8bn (443,478,804 shares at $971.40) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | 48.9x on trailing twelve-month diluted EPS of $19.88, built from the four reported quarters (Q4 FY2025 $5.87 plus Q1 FY2026 $4.50 plus Q2 FY2026 $4.58 plus Q3 FY2026 $4.93). Data aggregators quote 47.6x using an EPS figure of $20.40 that does not reconcile to the filings; the computed figure is used here. |
| P/E (forward) | 42.9x |
| P/S (TTM) | 1.47x (market cap $430.8bn / trailing twelve-month total revenue $293,587m) |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $416.5bn (market cap $430.8bn plus total debt $5.67bn less cash and short-term investments $20.0bn, per the 10 May 2026 balance sheet). Costco is in a net cash position, so enterprise value sits below market cap. |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 30.2x. EBITDA is trailing operating income of $11,225m plus trailing depreciation and amortisation of $2,565m, giving $13,790m. Both trailing figures are built as FY2025 less the prior-year 36 weeks plus the current 36 weeks, using the DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization total from the cash flow statement. |
| P/FCF | 48.9x (market cap $430.8bn / free cash flow $8.81bn, where FCF is trailing operating cash flow of $15,000m less capital expenditure of $6,194m). On the FY2025 full year alone, FCF of $7,837m implies 55.0x. |
| Price/book | 12.9x (market cap $430.8bn / total equity $33.5bn at 10 May 2026) |
| Dividend yield | 0.61% ($5.88 annualised at $971.40), following a 13.1% increase in April 2026 |
| 52-week high | $1,096.50 |
| 52-week low | $844.06 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 1.74% (7,655,966 shares short against a 440.9m free float, settlement date 31 July 2026, up roughly 5% on the prior report) |
| Days to cover | 3.33 days on average trading volume, same settlement date |
Capital expenditure is guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026, above the trailing figure used above, so free cash flow conversion may tighten before it improves. Readers can chart these multiples themselves on the ChartsView live charts.
7. What Are They Building
Warehouse expansion. Costco opened 27 warehouses including three relocations in FY2025 and planned up to 35 including five relocations in FY2026. The count has moved from 914 at the end of FY2025 to 933 as at 5 August 2026, with openings this year including New Braunfels in Texas, Monterrey in Mexico, Syracuse in Utah, Pensacola in Florida, Chandler in Arizona and Kaohsiung in Taiwan. Management has framed the run rate as thirty-plus openings a year, with roughly 28 planned for fiscal 2027, funded by capital expenditure guided to $6,000m to $6,500m in FY2026.
Digital and e-commerce. Digitally enabled comparable sales grew 21.5% in Q3 FY2026 and 21.2% across the first 48 weeks. Costco renamed the metric from e-commerce to digitally enabled during FY2026 to capture app and site influenced warehouse transactions as well as pure online orders. E-commerce now operates in nine countries, with China added during FY2026. Costco Next, the curated direct-from-manufacturer marketplace, continues to widen assortment without carrying inventory risk, and Costco Logistics handles final-mile delivery and installation for appliances, furniture and televisions.
Healthcare is the newest leg. Pharmacy was singled out on the Q3 FY2026 call for significant market share gains, driven by GLP-1 demand with Wegovy and Ozempic added to the Member Prescription Program, competitively priced pet medicines, acceptance of Medicare Part D over-the-counter flex cards, and expanded mail-order and specialty pharmacy. On 18 August 2026 Costco announced a first-of-its-kind partnership with SCAN Health Plan to launch Medicare Advantage products in two states and a Medicare supplement plan in a third, pending regulatory approval, stitching pharmacy, optical and hearing-aid services into an integrated senior health offering.
Petrol and bullion. Both are deliberate low-margin traffic drivers that swing reported comparable sales heavily. The final five weeks of Q3 FY2026 were the five highest-volume petrol weeks in Costco's history as members chased cheaper fuel during Middle East conflict. Gold bullion, sold as 99.99% pure one-ounce bars from LBMA-approved refiners, routinely sells out within hours; as at 21 August 2026 it was out of stock online while available in 186 US warehouses.
Membership engineering. Executive memberships reached 41.2 million, growing at more than twice the rate of total membership, and the FY2025 10-K discloses new exclusive early shopping hours for US Executive members to justify the $130 tier. Executive 2% rewards reduced FY2025 net sales by $3,007m. Membership card scanners have been rolled out at warehouse entrances across the US to convert card-sharing into paid memberships.
8. Competitive Landscape
Costco competes with general merchandise retailers, grocers, online marketplaces and two direct warehouse-club rivals. Market capitalisations below were pulled on 25 August 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AMZN) | $2,826.8bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $775.7bn, the only competitor larger than Costco by revenue and by far the largest by market value |
| Walmart (WMT) | $847.5bn | FY2026 revenue up 4.7%, with worldwide membership fee income up 15.5% to $4.4bn; Sam's Club US net sales of $93.0bn, up 3.1%, after raising its base club fee to $60 on 1 April 2026 |
| Target (TGT) | $77.2bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $107.7bn on a trailing multiple of 17.2x, roughly a third of Costco's rating |
| Kroger (KR) | $36.2bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of $148.6bn, with a forward multiple of 10.7x against a trailing 34.0x |
| BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) | $12.6bn | Q2 FY2026 reported 21 August 2026: comparable club sales up 11.9%, membership fee income $135.6m, a record 8.5 million members and diluted EPS up 19.3% to $1.36 |
Costco's trailing twelve-month revenue of $293.6bn is roughly 3.2 times Sam's Club in the United States and about 12.9 times BJ's. The competitive point worth noting is that BJ's just posted stronger comparable sales than Costco and Walmart's membership income is growing faster, so the warehouse-club channel as a whole is strong rather than Costco alone.
9. Insider Activity
Costco is led by Ron M. Vachris as President and Chief Executive Officer, a role he took on 1 January 2024 after serving as President and Chief Operating Officer, with Gary Millerchip as Chief Financial Officer since March 2024 and Hamilton E. James as non-executive Chairman. Thirteen Form 4 filings were made during 2026 to date. Every non-derivative disposition carried the Rule 10b5-1 affirmation flag unchecked, meaning none was reported as made under a pre-arranged trading plan. There were no open-market purchases by any insider during 2026; total open-market selling came to 6,623 shares for roughly $6.33m, with a further 10,664 shares given away.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey S. Raikes | 10 Jul 2026 | Gift to a non-profit foundation | 5,249 | n/a | No cash proceeds | Charitable, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Kenneth D. Denman | 23 Jun 2026 | Open-market sale | 885 | $957.45 weighted average | $847,346 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Caton Frates | 01 Apr 2026 | Open-market sale | 700 | $993.00 | $695,100 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Gary Millerchip | 11 Mar 2026 | Shares withheld for tax on RSU vesting | 1,154 | $992.23 | $1,145,073 | Equity compensation, not a 10b5-1 plan |
| Claudine Adamo | 09 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 730 | $1,003.02 | $732,205 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Teresa A. Jones | 21 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 850 | $986.26 weighted average | $838,318 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| James C. Klauer | 14 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 1,500 | $939.00 | $1,408,500 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
| Russell D. Miller | 09 Jan 2026 | Open-market sale | 1,500 | $916.32 | $1,374,480 | Not flagged as 10b5-1 on the filing |
Sales clustered between $916 and $1,003, below the 52-week high of $1,096.50. Gina M. Raimondo received an initial director restricted stock unit grant of 215 shares on 16 January 2026, vesting one third from 22 October 2026.
10. Key Risks
- Valuation risk, disclosed by the company itself: The FY2025 10-K states that the share price reflects high market expectations and that any failure or delay in meeting them, including on comparable sales, membership fee revenue, renewal rates, gross margin, earnings or new warehouse openings, could cause the price to decline. The Q3 FY2026 reaction proved the point: an 11.6% sales beat with 15% EPS growth still saw the shares fall because core gross margin slipped 9 basis points.
- Gross margin pressure from an adverse mix: Q3 FY2026 gross margin of 11.04% was 21 basis points lower year on year, with core-on-core down 9 basis points on weaker fresh margins and deliberate price investment. The current sales acceleration is disproportionately petrol, gold and ancillary driven, and the 10-K confirms that higher petrol penetration lowers the gross margin percentage.
- Membership saturation and renewal-rate erosion: Paid members grew only 4.1% against roughly 11% revenue growth. The US and Canada renewal rate of 92.2% and worldwide rate of 89.7% are both below FY2025 year-end levels, which the 10-K attributes to a higher share of memberships sold online renewing at slightly lower rates. Because fee income is almost entirely incremental profit, any slippage hits earnings close to dollar for dollar.
- Tariff litigation and refund uncertainty: A proposed class action filed in the Western District of Washington in April 2026 alleges Costco raised prices to pass on IEEPA tariffs and is now claiming refunds without repaying members, with claims for unjust enrichment and Washington Consumer Protection Act violations covering purchases between 1 February 2025 and 24 February 2026. Costco's stated position is that refunds will be recycled into lower prices.
- Competition from larger and faster-growing rivals: Amazon at $2.83trn and Walmart at $847bn are both bigger and both accelerating in subscription retail, Walmart's membership fee income grew 15.5% against Costco's roughly 10%, Sam's Club raised its base fee to $60 in April 2026 narrowing Costco's premium, and BJ's just posted comparable sales of 11.9% with record membership.
- International and currency exposure: Around 27% of FY2025 revenue and roughly 32% of operating income came from outside the United States, and currency movements cut FY2025 net sales by $1,943m or 78 basis points. Costco does not hedge translation exposure, and the non-US segments carry the higher operating margins, so swings hit profit disproportionately.
- Expansion execution and cannibalisation: The 10-K flags failing to meet warehouse opening targets and cannibalising existing locations as specific risks, and warns that square footage growth becomes a less substantial growth component as desirable sites get harder to secure. Costco has opened only 19 net new warehouses in 48 weeks against a plan of up to 35 openings.
- Structural cost inflation: The 10-K singles out healthcare and utility expenses as partially outside the company's control, and the March 2025 rise in the US and Canada starting wage to at least $20.00 an hour across 341,000 employees institutionalises labour cost growth. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 11 basis points as a share of net sales in FY2025.
11. Recent Developments
- 20 Feb 2026 — The Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump the court ruled the tariffs unlawful and they were subsequently terminated by executive order, making Costco, which had itself sued for refunds in December 2025, eligible to reclaim duties paid.
- 05 Mar 2026 — Q2 FY2026 results. Net sales rose 9.1% to $68.24bn with diluted EPS up 13.9% to $4.58 and total comparable sales of 7.4%, or 6.7% adjusted, with digital comparable sales of 22.6%.
- 02 Apr 2026 — Proposed class action filed over tariff refunds. Seven members from four states sued in the Western District of Washington alleging Costco raised prices to pass on tariffs and is now seeking refunds without repaying members; Costco's position is that refunds will fund lower future prices.
- 15 Apr 2026 — Quarterly dividend raised 13.1%. The board lifted the quarterly payment from $1.30 to $1.47 per share, an annualised $5.88, paid on 15 May 2026 to holders of record on 1 May 2026.
- 28 May 2026 — Q3 FY2026 delivers the strongest quarter in years. Net sales rose 11.6% to $69.15bn, diluted EPS 15.2% to $4.93 and total comparable sales 9.8%, driven by record petrol volumes and pharmacy share gains, though the shares fell on a 9 basis point decline in core-on-core gross margin.
- 08 Jul 2026 — June sales and a further dividend declaration. Net sales for the five weeks reached $29.24bn, up 10.6%, with US comparable sales of 10.6%, and a dividend of $1.47 was declared for payment on 7 August 2026.
- 05 Aug 2026 — July sales keep the double-digit run going. Four-week net sales of $23.12bn were up 10.7% with total comparable sales of 8.9%, taking FY2026 net sales through 48 weeks to $273.55bn, up 10.1%.
- 18 Aug 2026 — Costco entered the Medicare Advantage market. A first-of-its-kind partnership with SCAN Health Plan, one of the largest non-profit Medicare Advantage insurers, will launch Medicare Advantage products in two states and a Medicare supplement plan in a third, pending regulatory approval.
- 21 Aug 2026 — BJ's Wholesale raised guidance on 11.9% comparable sales. The rival club operator reported record membership of 8.5 million and 19.3% diluted EPS growth, confirming that the warehouse-club channel as a whole is running hot.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 30 Aug 2026 — End of the 52-week fiscal year 2026. The final four-week sales period closes on this date and will be disclosed with the annual results rather than in a separate monthly release.
- 24 Sep 2026 — Q4 and full-year FY2026 results, with the earnings call at 2.00pm Pacific Time. This date is confirmed on Costco's own investor events page.
- Expected Oct 2026 — FY2026 Form 10-K filing, following the pattern of the FY2025 10-K filed on 8 October 2025.
- Expected Oct 2026 — September monthly sales release and the next quarterly dividend declaration, historically issued together in mid-October, with payment expected in November 2026.
- Expected Dec 2026 — Proxy statement filing ahead of the annual meeting, following the FY2025 proxy filed on 4 December 2025.
- Expected Jan 2027 — Annual meeting of shareholders. The FY2025 meeting was held virtually on 15 January 2026, at which ten directors were elected and a shareholder proposal on greenwashing risk was defeated.
- TBC — Regulatory approval of the SCAN Health Plan Medicare partnership announced on 18 August 2026; no decision date has been published.
- TBC — Progress in the proposed tariff refund class action in the Western District of Washington; no hearing date has been published.
No special dividend has been declared in 2025 or 2026. Costco's last special was $15.00 per share declared in December 2023, and before that $10.00 per share in fiscal 2021, so the cadence is irregular rather than scheduled. Scheduled macroeconomic releases are listed on the ChartsView economic calendar, and readers can discuss this research in the ChartsView forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Costco is a subscription business wearing the clothes of a retailer: it sells merchandise at roughly 11% gross margin across 933 warehouses and takes its profit from the annual membership fee, which supplied $5,323m of FY2025 fee income against $10,383m of total operating income. FY2025 total revenue was $275,235m, up 8.2%, with GAAP diluted EPS of $18.21 and free cash flow of $7,837m. Fiscal 2026 has accelerated rather than slowed — net sales through 48 weeks are $273.55bn, up 10.1%, with Q3 comparable sales of 9.8% and digital up 21.5% — and the board raised the quarterly dividend 13.1% to $1.47 in April 2026. The structural drivers are Executive membership, growing 9.6% against 4.1% for the base, digital compounding above 20%, and a new push into healthcare via the SCAN Medicare partnership.
What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed by the 24 September 2026 full-year result holding double-digit sales growth while core-on-core gross margin stabilises, and by renewal rates recovering toward the FY2025 levels of 92.3% in the US and Canada. It is invalidated by the margin mix deteriorating further as low-margin petrol and bullion carry the comparable-sales number, by membership growth of only 4.1% and slipping renewal rates signalling saturation with no fee increase left to lap, or simply by the multiple compressing — a risk Costco's own 10-K spells out, and one the market demonstrated when the shares fell on an 11.6% sales beat in May 2026.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ4 and full-year FY2026 earnings (30 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Sales are accelerating, not decelerating:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Valuation risk, disclosed by the company itself:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 25 Aug 2026.
