ChartsView - Stock Trading Community

Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Company Research

Last Updated: 20 August 2026

Booking Holdings is the largest online travel company in the world by gross bookings, running Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable across more than 220 countries and territories. In FY2025 it processed $186.1bn of gross bookings and 1,235 million room nights, converting those into $26,917m of revenue at a take rate of 14.5 per cent. Two things dominate the current picture. The company executed a 25-for-1 forward stock split on 2 April 2026, so every historic per-share figure below has been restated onto the post-split basis. And growth is decelerating: room-night growth has fallen from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025 to 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, and full-year 2026 guidance has now been cut twice. This report sets out what the filings actually say, section by section, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
Exchange and tickerNasdaq Global Select Market, BKNG
SectorConsumer Discretionary — online travel agency / travel services
Headquarters800 Connecticut Avenue, Norwalk, Connecticut, USA
IncorporatedDelaware. Formed 1997; listed as priceline.com in 1999; renamed Booking Holdings Inc. on 21 February 2018
EmployeesApproximately 24,300 at 31 December 2025 (about 2,900 in the United States, about 21,400 elsewhere) per the FY2025 Form 10-K
CEO / LeadershipGlenn D. Fogel, President and Chief Executive Officer since 1 January 2017. CFO Ewout L. Steenbergen since 15 March 2024. Chair Robert J. Mylod, Jr.
Market capApproximately $160.0bn (751,380,500 shares per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page, at the $213.00 close on 19 August 2026)
Revenue (FY2025)$26,917m, up 13.4 per cent on FY2024
GAAP net income (FY2025)$5,404m
Gross bookings (FY2025)$186.1bn, with 1,235 million room nights
Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025)$9,937m, a 36.9 per cent margin
Dividend$0.42 per share per quarter post-split. Q3 2026 dividend declared 4 August 2026, payable 30 September 2026
Stock split25-for-1 forward split effected 2 April 2026; split-adjusted trading from 6 April 2026

Live price action for BKNG and the wider travel complex is on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Unmatched scale in a fragmented market: FY2025 gross bookings of $186.1bn compare with $119.6bn at Expedia Group and $91.3bn at Airbnb, and 1,235 million room nights against Airbnb's 533 million nights and seats. Scale buys supply density, which buys conversion.
  • A take rate that will not break: revenue as a percentage of gross bookings has moved less than 40 basis points in five years, from 14.31 per cent in FY2021 to 14.46 per cent in FY2025. Margin expansion has come from operating leverage rather than from squeezing partners, and adjusted EBITDA margin has risen from 26.5 per cent to 36.9 per cent over the same span.
  • Cash generation and a shrinking share count: FY2025 free cash flow was $9,086m on the company's own definition, 33.8 per cent of revenue. The company paid $6,440m for buybacks in FY2025 and a further $7,758m in the first half of 2026, including a record $3.7bn in Q2 2026, with $14.5bn of authorisation remaining at 30 June 2026.
  • Self-help is being raised, not cut: the Transformation Program target was lifted again on 4 August 2026, from about $550m to about $650m of annual run-rate savings by the end of 2027, with the incremental $100m attributed mainly to procurement.

Bear Case

  • Guidance has been cut twice in six months: FY2026 gross bookings and revenue growth guidance went from low double digits on 18 February 2026, to high single digits to low double digits on 28 April 2026, to high single digits on 4 August 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is no longer guided to grow faster than revenue.
  • Room-night growth is the slowest since the pandemic: 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, down from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025, with Q3 2026 guided to 3 to 5 per cent. Flight tickets grew only 3.7 per cent in Q2 2026 against 44.2 per cent a year earlier, and rental car days fell 6.5 per cent.
  • GAAP earnings growth is not operating growth: Q2 2026 GAAP EPS rose 131 per cent, but that includes a $195m foreign-exchange gain on Euro-denominated debt against a $961m loss in Q2 2025. Adjusted net income rose 8 per cent. The same distortion runs through Q1 2026.
  • Open-ended European litigation with no meaningful accrual: the Dutch collective damages action over hotel rate parity had expanded to 10,783 hotels by 30 July 2026 from 3,087 in January, with a further expansion expected. Booking states accrued amounts are not material; the tell is that standby letters of credit and bank guarantees rose to $1.3bn at 30 June 2026 from $874m six months earlier.

3. Business Segments

Booking Holdings reports a single operating segment. Revenue is disaggregated by type rather than by brand or geography, and the FY2025 split below is taken from the FY2025 results release.

Segment / category% of revenueWhat it is
Merchant revenues — $17,755m66.0%Bookings where Booking collects the traveller's payment itself and remits the accommodation net of commission. Captures payment economics, funds Genius loyalty pricing and creates float. Merchant gross bookings were $130.0bn in FY2025 and grew 14.5 per cent in Q2 2026.
Agency revenues — $7,968m29.6%The traditional model: the traveller pays the accommodation directly and Booking invoices commission after stay. Agency gross bookings were $56.1bn in FY2025 and declined 3.3 per cent in Q2 2026 as volume migrates to merchant.
Advertising and other — $1,194m4.4%KAYAK and OpenTable advertising and referral revenue, plus restaurant reservation fees. Now also the home of BKNG Ads, the unified advertising platform launched 21 May 2026 across Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda.

The mix has inverted in five years. In FY2021 agency was 60.8 per cent of a $10,958m revenue base and merchant only 33.7 per cent. Booking describes five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable. A $457m impairment of KAYAK goodwill and certain intangibles was taken in Q3 2025, attributed to lower forecast cash flows as customer acquisition costs rise for meta-search. The geographic note in the 10-K reports revenue by the domicile of the legal entity booking it rather than by traveller location, with the great majority booked through Booking.com B.V. in the Netherlands, so it is not a useful demand indicator.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Booking is a marketplace that takes a commission on travel it does not own. Gross bookings are the value of travel reserved through its platforms; revenue is the commission and payment economics retained on top. In FY2025 that was $26,917m of revenue on $186.1bn of gross bookings, a 14.46 per cent take rate. Because the company owns no hotels, aircraft or cars, incremental volume drops through at very high margin, which is why adjusted EBITDA margin has climbed 10.4 percentage points in four years while the take rate barely moved.

The network effect, and where it is thin. Supply density attracts travellers and traveller volume attracts supply. The measurable evidence of the moat is the direct channel: over the trailing four quarters to Q2 2026 the mix of room nights booked directly was a mid-fifties percentage. The wording matters, though. In Q3 and Q4 2025 the company said the direct mix was "increasing year over year"; in Q2 2026 it said only that it was "similar to last year". The direct-channel improvement has stalled.

Marketing is the moat's price. Marketing expense was $8,186m in FY2025, 30.4 per cent of revenue and 4.4 per cent of gross bookings, comfortably the largest cost line. The FY2025 10-K states performance marketing relates primarily to online search engines, primarily Google. That is a structural dependency on a company that is also building competing travel products.

The connected trip and the payments shift. Management's strategy is to sell flights, cars and attractions alongside accommodation, and to take payment itself. Payment facilitation reached about 73 per cent of gross bookings in Q2 2026. The mechanical consequence is float: deferred merchant bookings rose from $5,270m at 31 December 2025 to $10,121m at 30 June 2026. Flight tickets grew from 49 million in FY2024 to 68 million in FY2025, though the rate of growth collapsed to 3.7 per cent in Q2 2026.

Artificial intelligence, both ways. The Booking.com app inside ChatGPT was extended to car rentals on 20 May 2026, and Google's agentic hotel booking entered United States testing on 7 August 2026 with Booking Holdings among the first partners. Management confirmed around 5 August 2026 that bookings originating from artificial-intelligence chatbots remain below 1 per cent of volume.

5. Financial Health

All figures below come from Booking Holdings quarterly and annual results releases and Form 10-K and 10-Q filings. Per-share figures for FY2021 to FY2025 have been restated for the 25-for-1 forward split effected 2 April 2026 and are therefore comparable with the current share price.†

Fiscal YearRevenue ($m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY202110,958+61.2%$1.13$1.83$0.00$8,937m
FY202217,090+56.0%$3.05$3.99$0.00$11,985m
FY202321,365+25.0%$4.70$6.09$0.00$12,223m
FY202423,739+11.1%$6.91$7.48$1.40$14,853m
FY202526,917+13.4%$6.62$9.12$1.54$16,856m

† As reported before the split, FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS was $165.57 and adjusted EPS $228.06; the post-split conversion reproduces the company's own retroactive restatement to the cent. Long-term debt is the non-current balance from the SEC XBRL companyfacts series (tag LongTermDebtNoncurrent), excluding the current portion, which was $1,880m at 31 December 2025. The dividend was initiated with the Q4 2023 results on 22 February 2024, so FY2021 to FY2023 are correctly zero rather than unavailable.

Quarter / HalfRevenue ($m)Adjusted EPSGAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (reported 4 Aug 2026)7,352$2.54$2.53
Q1 2026 (reported 28 Apr 2026)5,532$1.14$1.36
Q4 2025 (reported 18 Feb 2026)6,349$1.95$1.77
Q3 2025 (reported 28 Oct 2025)9,008$3.98$3.38
Q2 2025 (reported 29 Jul 2025)6,798$2.22$1.10
FY2025 total26,917$9.12$6.62

Q3 is structurally the largest quarter because agency commissions are recognised at check-in; Q3 2025 alone carried a 47.0 per cent adjusted EBITDA margin. A single quarter should never be annualised. On the balance sheet, cash and equivalents were $17,214m at 30 June 2026 with no short-term investments line, against short-term debt of $2,000m and long-term debt of $18,180m, so total debt was $20,180m and net debt $2,966m. Total stockholders' equity was negative $10,783m, deepened from negative $5,578m at 31 December 2025. That is a capital-structure outcome, not distress: treasury stock stood at $62,129m against retained earnings of $43,046m, so cumulative buybacks simply exceed cumulative retained profit. Book value and return on equity are meaningless metrics for this company. Operating cash flow was $9,409m in FY2025 against capital expenditure of $322m, and $6,934m against $183m in the first half of 2026.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Market capApproximately $160.0bn (751,380,500 shares from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page at the $213.00 close on 19 August 2026). Note that several data feeds still carry the stale Q1 2026 count of 774,878,436 and therefore print about $165bn.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)Approximately 23.6x ($213.00 / TTM GAAP diluted EPS of $9.04, being $3.38 + $1.77 + $1.36 + $2.53 for the four quarters to 30 June 2026). On the company's TTM adjusted EPS of $9.61 the multiple is approximately 22.2x. Note that GAAP earnings in both 2026 quarters were flattered by foreign-exchange gains on Euro debt.
P/E (forward)Approximately 20.5x on management's own FY2026 guidance of low-to-mid-teens adjusted EPS growth on FY2025's $9.12, implying roughly $10.35. On the FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS of $12.38 carried by market data feeds the multiple is approximately 17.2x.
P/S (TTM)Approximately 5.7x ($160.0bn / TTM revenue of $28,241m, being $9,008m + $6,349m + $5,532m + $7,352m).
EV/EBITDA (TTM)Approximately 15.6x (EV ~$162.0bn / TTM adjusted EBITDA of $10,364m, summed from the four reported quarters). On a GAAP build the figure is approximately 16.1x: TTM GAAP operating income of $9,284m plus depreciation and amortisation of roughly $0.79bn. FY2025 D&A was $768m on the wider income-statement basis and $623m on the narrower cash-flow add-back; the wider figure is used here.
Enterprise valueApproximately $162.0bn (market cap ~$160.0bn + total debt $20,180m − cash and equivalents $17,214m, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet. There is no short-term investments line).
P/FCFApproximately 17.6x on FY2025 free cash flow of $9,086m (operating cash flow $9,409m less capital expenditure $322m), and approximately 16.8x on trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of roughly $9.5bn.
52-week high$231.80 intraday; $226.92 on a closing basis
52-week low$150.14 intraday; $153.74 on a closing basis
Short interest (% of float)3.16 per cent of float, being 23,687,573 shares on the 31 July 2026 settlement date. Low, and not a contested short position.
Days to coverApproximately 3.8 days on the short ratio carried in market data feeds; MarketBeat computes approximately 4.1 days on a 6.05 million share average daily volume.
Price/bookNot meaningful. Shareholders' equity was negative $10,783m at 30 June 2026 because cumulative buybacks exceed cumulative retained earnings.

7. What Are They Building

Three programmes account for most of what Booking Holdings is investing in behind the reported numbers.

Booking Partner Services. The business-to-business units of Agoda, Booking.com and Priceline are being merged onto Agoda's technology stack under a single brand. The consolidation was reported on 10 July and 6 August 2026, Agoda chief executive Omri Morgenshtern was named to lead it on 10 August 2026, and the unit is due to become a legal entity in January 2027. Business-to-business distribution is the part of the industry least exposed to consumer search behaviour.

BKNG Ads. Launched 21 May 2026, this unifies advertising inventory across Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda into a single platform. It is an attempt to build a high-margin revenue line off traffic the group already owns, and it sits in the advertising and other category that was only 4.4 per cent of FY2025 revenue.

Agentic and conversational distribution. Booking is deliberately present on both sides of the artificial-intelligence question. It supplies inventory into ChatGPT, extended from accommodation to car rentals on 20 May 2026, and it is among the first partners in Google's agentic hotel booking test that began on 7 August 2026. The strategic bet is that being the supply layer inside someone else's assistant is better than being disintermediated by it.

Alongside these, the Transformation Program continues: about $550m of run-rate savings had been achieved by February 2026 and the target was raised to about $650m by the end of 2027 on 4 August 2026, with the incremental amount coming mainly from procurement.

8. Competitive Landscape

Market capitalisations below were re-checked live at the close on 19 August 2026 rather than taken from earlier in the year.

PeerMarket cap (Aug 2026)Key 2025 metric
Airbnb (ABNB)$109.9bnFY2025 gross booking value $91.3bn, up 12 per cent, on 533.0 million nights and seats booked; revenue $12.2bn. In Q2 2026 nights and seats grew 10 per cent and gross booking value 16 per cent, both faster than Booking's alternative accommodation growth of 4 per cent.
Expedia Group (EXPE)$39.2bnFY2025 gross bookings $119,590m, up 8 per cent, and revenue $14,733m. Q2 2026 gross bookings grew 12 per cent to $33.93bn on 111.5 million booked room nights.
Trip.com Group (TCOM)$29.3bnFY2025 net revenue of RMB 62.4bn, about $8.9bn, up 17 per cent. Q1 2026 revenue grew 17 per cent, but management guided Q2 2026 growth down sharply to a range of about 3 to 8 per cent.
MakeMyTrip (MMYT)$5.8bnFiscal year to 31 March 2026 gross bookings of $10,390.8m, up 10.4 per cent in constant currency, the first year above $10bn; revenue $1,044.0m.
Tripadvisor (TRIP)$1.2bnFY2025 revenue $1,891m, up 3 per cent and a record. Q2 2026 revenue then fell about 7 per cent to $441.9m with Hotels and Other down about 21 per cent, which the company attributed to search and artificial-intelligence headwinds.

Hotel groups compete for the same booking through their own loyalty channels rather than for the same listing. Marriott Bonvoy passed 295 million members at 30 June 2026 from about 271 million at 31 December 2025, and Hilton Honors reached 260 million at the same date. Neither company currently discloses a direct-booking percentage; Marriott's often-quoted 75 per cent United States and 68 per cent global figures are loyalty-member room nights, which is a different measure.

The clearest competitive gap in the numbers is alternative accommodation. Booking.com grew that category 4 per cent in Q2 2026, down from about 10 per cent in Q3 2025, while Airbnb grew nights and seats 10 per cent. The clearest structural threat is Google, which discloses no travel revenue but is simultaneously Booking's largest marketing channel and the operator of a competing agentic booking product.

9. Insider Activity

Chief executive Glenn D. Fogel has led Booking Holdings since 1 January 2017 and also runs Booking.com. Across the six months to 20 August 2026 there was not a single open-market purchase by any officer or director, and every disclosed open-market sale was executed under a pre-existing Rule 10b5-1 plan. Aggregate open-market disposals were roughly 174,600 shares for about $32.6m on a post-split basis. Two of the largest sales landed on 17 August 2026.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Peter J. Millones (EVP, General Counsel)17 Aug 2026Open-market sale50,050$204.91–$212.88$10,390,069Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 26 Nov 2024
Vanessa A. Wittman (Director)17 Aug 2026Open-market sale375$211.00$79,125Rule 10b5-1
Ewout L. Steenbergen (CFO)12 Aug 2026Open-market sale20,000$208.65–$212.54$4,220,516Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 13 May 2026
Robert J. Mylod, Jr. (Chair, via Annox Capital)05 Aug 2026Open-market sale (indirect)1,000$206.70$206,700Rule 10b5-1
Robert J. Mylod, Jr. (Chair, via Annox Capital)29 Jul 2026Open-market sale (indirect)5,000$200.00$1,000,000Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 7 Aug 2025
Peter J. Millones (EVP, General Counsel)26 May 2026Open-market sale62,500$162.96–$165.56Approximately $10.2mRule 10b5-1, plan adopted 26 Nov 2024
Glenn D. Fogel (CEO)15 Apr 2026Open-market sale16,726$182.99–$186.01Approximately $3,097,000Rule 10b5-1, plan adopted 9 Dec 2024

Chief financial officer Steenbergen's 12 August 2026 sale reduced his direct holding by about a quarter, from 79,794 shares to 59,794, under a plan adopted only three months earlier. Separately, large code-F dispositions on 4 March 2026 were tax withholding on vesting rather than sales, including 8,368 pre-split shares for Fogel worth about $34.8m. The pattern is routine diversification by a heavily equity-compensated team, but the complete absence of buying is worth recording.

10. Key Risks

  • European rate-parity damages litigation: the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled on 19 September 2024 that neither wide nor narrow parity clauses are ancillary restraints. The Dutch collective action backed by HOTREC was filed on 30 January 2026 for 3,087 hotels, expanded on 30 July 2026 to 10,783, closes for registration on 11 September 2026 and is expected to reach roughly 18,000 hotels. A Berlin court held Booking jointly liable to 1,099 accommodation providers on 16 December 2025 without quantifying damages. Booking states accrued amounts are not material, while its standby letters of credit and bank guarantees rose to $1.3bn at 30 June 2026 from $874m at 31 December 2025.
  • The Spanish CNMC fine: a €413.24m penalty was imposed on 29 July 2024 for two abuse-of-dominance infringements. Booking appealed on 30 October 2024 and the Audiencia Nacional suspended the entire decision including payment in February 2025. The amount is fully accrued and carried at $472m at 30 June 2026, but the merits have not been decided and the scope of the suspension is itself disputed.
  • United States regulatory escalation: the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q disclosed for the first time that Federal Trade Commission staff have told Priceline they intend to recommend a complaint against Priceline and a business-to-business affiliate over disclosures, fees, customer support and billing. No complaint has been filed and no amount is accrued. The precedent for cost is the $9.5m Texas Attorney General settlement of 19 August 2025 over undisclosed mandatory fees.
  • Demand deceleration and geopolitics: room-night growth fell from 9.0 per cent in Q4 2025 to 5.9 per cent in Q1 2026 to 5.3 per cent in Q2 2026, with Q3 2026 guided to 3 to 5 per cent. Management attributes this to indirect effects of the Middle East conflict, specifically elevated fares, reduced flight capacity and softer long-haul international demand, and has assumed those persist through Q3.
  • Google dependency and artificial-intelligence disintermediation: marketing was $8,186m in FY2025, 30.4 per cent of revenue, spent primarily with search engines and primarily Google. The FY2025 10-K warns that third-party platforms increasingly incorporate generative features that may satisfy user intent without directing users to Booking. Tripadvisor's Hotels and Other revenue fell about 21 per cent in Q2 2026 on exactly that dynamic. Booking's mitigation is that chatbot-originated bookings remain below 1 per cent of volume and the direct channel is stable in the mid-fifties.
  • Data security and privacy exposure: Booking.com confirmed on 13 April 2026 that unauthorised parties accessed reservation-linked personal data including names, emails, addresses, phone numbers and messages to accommodations. Reservation PINs were reset platform-wide and data protection authorities were notified. The company states it is likely to face follow-on investigations or litigation and may receive a fine. The GDPR maximum of 4 per cent of global annual revenue would be roughly $1.08bn on FY2025 revenue.
  • Foreign exchange and tax volatility: most revenue is booked in Euro through Booking.com B.V. and the company carries substantial unhedged Euro debt, so remeasurement runs straight through the income statement: a $1,380m loss in FY2025 against a $528m gain in the first half of 2026. Separately, unrecognised tax benefits rose to $313m at 30 June 2026 from $250m six months earlier, an IRS audit of the 2018 deemed repatriation refund claim began in 2026, and the Q2 2026 effective tax rate rose to 23.8 per cent from 18.9 per cent.

11. Recent Developments

  • 18 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and a 25-for-1 stock split. Revenue of $26.9bn up 13 per cent, gross bookings $186.1bn up 12 per cent, room nights 1,235m up 8 per cent, adjusted EPS up 22 per cent. The board also announced the first forward stock split in company history, with a 6 March record date, and raised the quarterly dividend 9.4 per cent.
  • 04 Mar 2026 — Amsterdam court delivers an interim ruling largely favourable to Booking. The court held that the German hotels bringing parity counterclaims had still not evidenced that the clauses restricted competition, and questioned the narrow market definition used by the German competition authority.
  • 02 Apr 2026 — The stock split takes effect. The charter amendment became effective at 4:01 p.m. Eastern, authorised shares rose from 1bn to 25bn, and split-adjusted trading began on 6 April 2026.
  • 13 Apr 2026 — Booking.com confirms a data security incident. Unauthorised third parties accessed personal information tied to reservations. Reservation PINs were reset across the platform and data protection authorities notified. No Form 8-K Item 1.05 was filed.
  • 22 Apr 2026 — Italy's AGCM opens a consumer-protection investigation. The regulator is examining whether the Partner Preferred and Partner Preferred Plus programmes mislead consumers because admission is driven primarily by commission paid rather than by quality. Inspections took place on 21 April with the Guardia di Finanza.
  • 28 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results and the first guidance cut. Revenue of $5,532m up 16 per cent and a record $4.0bn returned to shareholders, but FY2026 growth guidance was reduced from low double digits to high single digits to low double digits, citing the Middle East conflict.
  • 07 May 2026 and 11 May 2026 — $2.9bn of new debt issued. A $750m 5.375 per cent note due 2036, followed by three Euro tranches totalling €1.9bn due 2030, 2034 and 2039, largely funding the buyback programme.
  • 21 May 2026 — BKNG Ads launched. A unified advertising platform spanning Booking.com, Priceline and Agoda.
  • 30 Jul 2026 — The Dutch hotel collective action more than triples in size. The Stichting Hotel Claims Alliance action expanded from 3,087 to 10,783 hotels, with registration closing 11 September 2026 and a further expansion expected in the autumn.
  • 04 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results, a record buyback and a second guidance cut. Revenue of $7,352m up 8 per cent, room nights up 5 per cent, adjusted EPS $2.54 up 15 per cent, and a record $3.7bn of repurchases. The Transformation Program target was raised to about $650m by end-2027. FY2026 gross bookings and revenue growth guidance was cut again to high single digits, and the Q2 10-Q disclosed the Federal Trade Commission staff's intention to recommend a complaint against Priceline.
  • 07 Aug 2026 — Google's agentic hotel booking enters United States testing. Booking Holdings is among the first partners, alongside Expedia, Marriott, Wyndham and IHG.
  • 10 Aug 2026 — Omri Morgenshtern named chief executive of Booking Partner Services. The Agoda chief executive will run the consolidated business-to-business unit while retaining his existing role.

No Form 8-K has been filed and no press release issued since 5 August 2026. Filings on and after 17 August 2026 comprise a Form 144 and two Form 4s covering the insider sales listed in Section 9. Scheduled macro events that move travel demand are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 11 Sep 2026 — record date for the $0.42 Q3 2026 dividend, and under T+1 settlement the effective ex-dividend date. The same day is the registration deadline for the Dutch hotel collective action.
  • 30 Sep 2026 — Q3 2026 dividend of $0.42 per share paid, as declared on 4 August 2026.
  • Expected Oct 2026 — France's DGCCRF final order requires Agoda to change certain business practices by October 2026. This is the only hard, company-disclosed regulatory deadline in the forward window.
  • Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. The date has not been confirmed; the confirming press release has historically landed about four weeks ahead, and aggregators disagree between late October and early November 2026.
  • Expected Nov 2026 — annual Digital Markets Act compliance report for Booking.com, inferred from the November 2024 and November 2025 cadence rather than announced.
  • 22 Dec 2026 — deadline for Rule 14a-8 shareholder proposals for the 2027 annual meeting, per the 2026 proxy.
  • Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and FY2026 results, on the company's established late-February pattern.
  • TBC — merits rulings in the Spanish CNMC appeal, the Swiss Price Surveillance Office appeal, the German parity appeal and the Greek and Hungarian investigations. No hearing dates have been published for any of them.

Booking Holdings does not hold an investor day. Discussion of travel-sector positioning continues on the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loading research report…

13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
52 / 100

The central thesis. Booking Holdings is a marketplace that takes a commission on travel it does not own, running Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable, and converting gross bookings into revenue at a take rate that has moved less than 40 basis points in five years. FY2025 delivered $186.1bn of gross bookings, 1,235 million room nights and $26,917m of revenue, up 13.4 per cent, with adjusted EBITDA of $9,937m at a 36.9 per cent margin and free cash flow of $9,086m. Management has since cut FY2026 guidance twice, most recently on 4 August 2026 to high single-digit gross bookings and revenue growth, while raising the Transformation Program savings target to about $650m by the end of 2027. The near-term driver is capital return rather than volume: $6,440m of buybacks in FY2025 and a record $3.7bn in Q2 2026 alone, with $14.5bn of authorisation remaining.

What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed if room-night growth stabilises at or above the 3 to 5 per cent guided for Q3 2026, the direct channel resumes gaining share of a mid-fifties percentage mix, and the take rate holds while buybacks keep shrinking the share count. It breaks if European rate-parity damages crystallise at scale, the Dutch collective action having grown from 3,087 to 10,783 hotels between January and July 2026 with roughly 18,000 expected, if the Federal Trade Commission proceeds against Priceline, or if generative search erodes the direct and paid funnel the way Tripadvisor's 21 per cent decline in Hotels and Other revenue in Q2 2026 suggests it can.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Unmatched scale in a fragmented market:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "European rate-parity damages litigation:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
4 : 4
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
0 of 7
Recent news
Net downgrades
Generated
20 Aug 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 20 Aug 2026.