Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Company Research
Last Updated: 27 April 2026
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) is the world’s largest online travel agency by gross travel bookings, generating $26.92 bn of revenue in FY2025 across Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, OpenTable and Rentalcars.com. The group is approaching Q1 2026 results on Tuesday 28 April with the share price trading post a first-ever 25-for-1 stock split that took effect on 6 April 2026. Underneath the split, the operational story remains the migration to a higher-take-rate merchant model (now ~66% of revenue), a generative-AI overhaul of the front-end booking experience and a Connected Trip thesis that knits together accommodations, flights, attractions and ground transport. This report covers the FY2025 financials, the brand and segment mix, the regulatory overhang in Europe and the competitive position relative to Expedia, Airbnb and Trip.com.
1. Company Snapshot
| Company | Booking Holdings Inc. |
| Ticker | NASDAQ: BKNG |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Services – Online Travel Services |
| Corporate HQ | 800 Connecticut Ave, Norwalk, Connecticut, USA (Booking.com operating HQ in Amsterdam) |
| CEO & President | Glenn D. Fogel (CEO since January 2017) |
| EVP & CFO | Ewout Steenbergen (since 15 March 2024) |
| Founded | 1997 (as Priceline.com Inc.; rebranded Booking Holdings in 2018) |
| Employees | ~24,300 (FY2025 10-K) |
| Fiscal year end | 31 December |
| Share price (24 Apr 2026) | $180.25 (split-adjusted) |
| 52-week range (split-adj.) | $150.62 (22 Feb 2026) – $233.58 (8 Jul 2025) |
| Market cap | ~$140.3 bn |
| Enterprise value | ~$142.1 bn |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.92 bn (+13.4% YoY) |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $5.40 bn |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $9.09 bn |
| FY2025 gross travel bookings | $186.1 bn (+12% YoY); 1.235 bn room nights |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.42 post-split ($10.50 pre-split, +9.4%) – ex-div 6 Mar 2026, paid 31 Mar 2026 |
| Buyback authorisation | ~$21.8 bn remaining post-Q4 2025 |
| Next earnings | Q1 2026 results – Tuesday 28 April 2026 (after-market) |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| FY2025 revenue +13.4% to $26.92 bn, gross bookings +12% to $186.1 bn, room nights +8% to 1.235 bn – well ahead of broader travel-spend growth. | FY2025 GAAP net income $5.40 bn, down from $5.88 bn in FY2024, reflecting normalisation after one-off FY2024 tax benefits and rising marketing intensity. |
| Merchant model now ~66% of revenue (+25.5% YoY) and ~72% of bookings; take rate held at 14.8% in Q4 2025 vs 14.7% the prior year, supporting margin durability. | EU regulatory pressure persists – DMA gatekeeper status (May 2024), €413.24 m CNMC fine in Spain, German hotel-association damages claims and Amsterdam appeals proceedings still in flow. |
| Generative-AI deployment is reducing customer-service costs ~10% YoY while bookings rose 10%; Smart Messenger and AI Trip Planner integrate OpenAI tooling at scale. | Airbnb commands ~44% of the global short-term rental market vs Booking’s 18%, and meta-search/agentic AI from Alphabet threatens to disintermediate the funnel. |
| FCF $9.09 bn in FY2025 funded ~$6.4 bn of buybacks; ~$21.8 bn authorisation remaining; dividend +9.4% to $0.42 post-split. | Marketing spend rose to ~$8.2 bn in FY2025 (vs $7.3 bn FY2024); marketing as % of bookings climbed in Q4 2025, indicating customer-acquisition costs are creeping. |
| 2026 reinvestment programme of ~$700 m focused on gen-AI, Connected Trip and US/Asia expansion; offset by $500–550 m of in-year transformation savings. | Negative shareholder equity (~ -$5.6 bn) reflects aggressive buyback policy – durable capital flexibility hinges on continued FCF generation and credit-market access. |
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
Booking Holdings is the largest online travel platform in the world by gross bookings. It owns six consumer-facing brands and licenses no third-party search relationships of comparable scale: Booking.com (the dominant accommodations platform), Priceline (US opaque/discount travel), Agoda (Asia-Pacific accommodations), KAYAK (meta-search), OpenTable (restaurant reservations) and Rentalcars.com (car rentals).
The company does not break out brand-level revenue, but Booking.com is the great majority of consolidated revenue and gross bookings. FY2025 operational scale: $186.1 bn in gross travel bookings (+12% YoY), 1.235 bn room nights (+8%), 88 m rental-car days and 68 m airline tickets booked (+37% in flights).
Revenue mix by booking model (FY2025):
| Channel | FY2025 revenue | % of total | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant (Booking.com merchant-of-record) | $17.76 bn | ~66% | +25.5% |
| Agency (pure-commission accommodation) | $7.97 bn | ~30% | -6.5% |
| Advertising & Other (KAYAK, OpenTable, brand ads) | $1.19 bn | ~4% | +11.3% |
4. The Business Model
Booking Holdings runs a high-gross-margin, marketing-heavy consumer internet model. FY2025 gross profit was $23.51 bn on $26.92 bn of revenue, an 87.4% gross margin. Operating income was $8.83 bn (~32.8% margin) and adjusted EBITDA was $9.9 bn (~37% margin, +20% YoY).
How the money flows:
- Merchant model – Booking.com acts as merchant-of-record, takes payment from the traveller, pays the hotel net of a commission and pockets the spread plus payment economics. Take rate ran at 14.8% in Q4 2025 (vs 14.7% in Q4 2024). Merchant share of bookings has risen from ~50% two years ago to ~72% today.
- Agency model – the property bills the traveller directly and pays Booking.com a commission post-stay. Lower cash-flow benefit but lighter compliance burden.
- Advertising & subscriptions – KAYAK referral fees, OpenTable restaurant subscriptions and Booking Sponsored Benefits brand placements. ~4% of revenue but margin-accretive.
Key operating drivers:
- Marketing intensity – FY2025 marketing spend ~$8.2 bn (vs $7.3 bn FY2024). Marketing as % of gross bookings was 4.5% in Q4 2025 (vs 4.2% Q4 2024) – the cost of customer acquisition is creeping.
- Genius loyalty – Genius Levels 2 & 3 represent >30% of the active base and the high-50s % of room nights, giving Booking direct demand outside of paid search.
- Connected Trip – multi-vertical transactions grew "high 20%" YoY in 2025 and now represent low-double-digit % of Booking.com transactions; flight tickets +37% YoY.
- Payments platform – processes the majority of merchant volume and underpins Booking.com's growth-toolkit for hotel partners.
5. Financial Health
Five-year revenue and earnings (FY2021–FY2025), USD billions / per-share figures split-adjusted for the 25-for-1 split effective 6 April 2026:
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 10.96 | 17.09 | 21.37 | 23.74 | 26.92 |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 8.64 | 14.63 | 18.07 | 20.39 | 23.51 |
| Operating income ($bn) | 2.50 | 5.10 | 5.84 | 7.56 | 8.83 |
| Net income ($bn) | 1.17 | 3.06 | 4.29 | 5.88 | 5.40 |
| Diluted EPS (split-adj.) | 1.13 | 3.05 | 4.70 | 6.91 | 6.62 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 2.52 | 6.19 | 7.00 | 7.89 | 9.09 |
| Diluted shares (m, split-adj.) | 1,034 | 1,001 | 913 | 852 | 816 |
Quarterly revenue and operating margin (last five quarters):
| Quarter | Revenue ($bn) | Operating margin | Adj. EBITDA ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 5.47 | ~31.6% | 1.85 |
| Q1 2025 | 4.76 | ~14.0% | 1.10 |
| Q2 2025 | 6.80 | ~31.0% | 2.40 |
| Q3 2025 | 9.01 | ~41.0% | 4.20 |
| Q4 2025 | 6.35 | ~32.0% | 2.20 |
Cash & capital structure (FY2025): Cash and equivalents ~$17.2 bn against total debt ~$17.0–17.5 bn. Aggressive buybacks since 2018 have driven shareholder equity into negative territory (~ -$5.6 bn) – the firm runs a "synthetic" capital structure typical of mature mega-buyback peers (Apple, Home Depot etc.). FY2025 buybacks ~$6.4 bn; remaining authorisation ~$21.8 bn at year-end. Dividend +9.4% YoY, paid quarterly since Q1 2024.
6. Valuation & Market Data
| Share price (24 Apr 2026) | $180.25 (split-adjusted) |
| Market cap | ~$140.3 bn |
| Enterprise value | ~$142.1 bn |
| Trailing P/E | ~27.2× |
| Forward P/E | ~16.9× |
| Price / Sales (TTM) | ~5.2× |
| EV / EBITDA (TTM) | ~14.0× – 16.7× (sources differ) |
| Price / FCF | ~15.4× |
| 52-week high / low | $233.58 (8 Jul 2025) – $150.62 (22 Feb 2026), split-adjusted |
| 20-day average volume | ~7.21 m shares (split-adjusted) |
| Short interest | ~0.10% of float (StockAnalysis) – ~3.0% (Fintel); sources differ |
| Beta (5Y) | 1.20 |
| Dividend yield | ~0.93% |
Figures sourced from company filings, the FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis/Nasdaq market data as of 24 April 2026 close.
7. What Are They Building / What’s Coming?
The strategic priority is converting the dominant accommodations marketplace into an AI-augmented Connected Trip platform. Recent and in-flight initiatives include:
- AI Trip Planner (Booking.com) – launched June 2023 with OpenAI GPT, expanded internationally in 2024–2025; integrated into the Smart Messenger and Auto-Reply features (October 2025) that handle real-time disruption messaging (flight cancellations, re-bookings).
- OpenAI partnership – Booking.com is a public reference customer for OpenAI; ChatGPT integrations underpin personalisation across the funnel.
- Penny – Priceline’s AI travel assistant – live for US users; Priceline is a public-beta partner for OpenAI’s Voice Engine and Realtime API for hands-free voice search.
- Customer-service AI – CFO Steenbergen disclosed customer-service costs fell ~10% YoY while bookings rose 10%, attributed directly to gen-AI deployment.
- Connected Trip transactions – grew "high 20%" YoY in 2025; flight tickets +37% YoY; attractions ~+80% off a small base; multi-vertical share of Booking.com transactions in low-double-digits.
- 2026 reinvestment programme – ~$700 m above baseline opex announced on the Q4 2025 call, targeted at gen-AI capabilities, Connected Trip, US/Asia expansion, advertising business, OpenTable international and fintech/loyalty. Expected ~$400 m incremental revenue / ~$300 m incremental adj-EBITDA in-year.
- Transformation programme – $500–550 m of in-year savings expected in 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
The online travel market is dominated by a handful of players. According to Skift’s 2024–2025 review, the top-4 OTAs combined account for 96% of the $58 bn sector revenue, while Booking and Expedia together capture ~42% of global OTA gross bookings.
| Competitor | 2024 metric | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings (BKNG) | $165.6 bn gross bookings (2024); $186.1 bn (2025) | Largest global OTA; merchant model + Genius loyalty |
| Expedia Group | $13.7 bn revenue (2024); 19.3% global OTA share | Brands: Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo; ~40%+ NA OTA share |
| Airbnb (ABNB) | $11.94 bn revenue (2025); $81.8 bn GBV (2024) | 44% of global short-term rentals (up from 28% in 2019) |
| Trip.com Group | $8.19 bn revenue (2024); ~$48 bn market cap | #3 globally; dominant in Greater China and APAC |
| MakeMyTrip / Despegar / Trivago | Sub-segment regional players | India / LatAm / metasearch niches |
Within short-term rentals specifically, Booking.com has lifted its share to ~18% (vs 14% in 2019), Vrbo (Expedia) has slipped to ~9% (vs 11%) and Airbnb still leads at 44%. The big three combined hold ~71% of the global short-term rental market.
Beyond pure OTAs, Booking competes with direct hotel websites – Marriott Bonvoy, Hilton Honors and IHG One Rewards have grown direct-to-consumer share materially since the pandemic, particularly in North America. Alphabet’s Search, Maps and emerging agentic AI features represent a strategic threat at the top of the funnel.
9. Leadership and Ownership
| President & CEO | Glenn D. Fogel (CEO since January 2017; CEO of Booking.com since June 2019) |
| EVP & CFO | Ewout Steenbergen (since 15 March 2024, ex-S&P Global) |
| Booking.com brand CEO | Glenn Fogel (dual role) |
| Agoda CEO | Omri Morgenshtern |
| Glenn Fogel total comp 2024 | $44.84 m (2.6% salary, 97.4% equity / bonus) |
Top institutional holders (latest 13F):
| Holder | % of shares |
|---|---|
| The Vanguard Group | ~8.4% |
| BlackRock Inc. | ~7–8% |
| State Street Corp | ~4% |
| T. Rowe Price, Capital World, JPMorgan, Geode, Dodge & Cox, Fidelity | Top-10 supplementary |
| Aggregate institutional ownership | ~91% of float |
Selected insider transactions (last 12 months – CEO Glenn Fogel, all under Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 9 December 2024):
| Date | Action | Shares | Approx. value | 10b5-1? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2026 | Sell | 16,726 (post-split) | ~$3.06 m | Yes – 9 Dec 2024 plan |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Sell | 669 (post-split) | n/d | Yes |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Sell | 452 | ~$1.87 m | Yes |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Sell (open-market series) | n/d | ~$2.1 m | Yes |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Sell | 170 | ~$0.86 m | Yes |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Sell | 1,013 | n/d | Yes |
Pattern: programmatic 10b5-1 selling by the CEO; no open-market discretionary insider purchases identified in the trailing twelve months.
10. Risks and Challenges
- EU Digital Markets Act – Booking.com was designated a DMA gatekeeper on 13 May 2024, the seventh major platform after Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft. Compliance obligations and ongoing EC scrutiny on data, parity and self-preferencing.
- Spanish CNMC fine – €413.24 m, the largest fine in CNMC history, for abuse of dominance via price-parity clauses. Booking is appealing.
- German parity litigation – the Amsterdam appeals court partially upheld Booking.com’s position in March 2026 on long-running narrow price-parity proceedings; a separate German court ordered compensation to >1,000 hotels with potential exposure in the hundreds of millions of euros.
- Google & agentic-AI travel – Alphabet’s Search, Hotels and emerging AI agents threaten meta-search referrals; Connected Trip is the strategic counter, but the funnel risk is structural.
- Airbnb / alt accommodation – Airbnb retains a 44% short-term rental share vs Booking’s 18%; while Booking is gaining, the structural alt-accommodation tilt in younger travellers favours Airbnb.
- Marketing intensity – spend +12% YoY in 2025 ($8.2 bn); marketing as % of bookings rose in Q4 2025, indicating customer-acquisition deleverage if performance marketing continues to inflate.
- FX – ~75% of revenue is non-USD; Q1 2025 results showed material FX drag and the same risk applies to FY2026 reporting.
- Discretionary travel sensitivity – Q1 2026 guidance softer (room nights +5–7% vs +8–9% trend); recession or tariff shocks compress consumer travel budgets.
- Negative shareholder equity – ~ -$5.6 bn; aggressive capital return depends on continued FCF and access to credit markets.
11. Recent Developments
Last 48 hours:
- 24 Apr 2026 – BKNG closed Friday at $180.25 ahead of Q1 2026 results, with intraday range $176.03–$182.09 on 26 April pre-market futures. Company guidance for Q1 is room nights +5–7% and gross bookings/revenue +14–16% YoY.
- 15 Apr 2026 – CEO Glenn Fogel sold 16,726 shares (post-split) at a weighted price band of $183–$186 under the 9 December 2024 10b5-1 plan; remaining direct holding 298,174 shares plus 345,500 indirect (GRAT).
Last six months:
- 2 Apr 2026 – 25-for-1 stock split payable, with split-adjusted trading from 6 April 2026; the first split in company history, taking the share price from ~$4,117 to ~$165 on the day before further moves.
- March 2026 – Amsterdam appeals court ruled partially in Booking.com’s favour on key German price-parity arguments; Spanish CNMC €413 m fine remains under appeal.
- 18 Feb 2026 – Q4 2025 results: revenue $6.35 bn (+16.1%), GAAP net income $1.43 bn (+33.7%), operating income $2.03 bn, adjusted EBITDA $2.2 bn (+19%), adjusted EPS $48.80 pre-split (+17%). Full-year revenue $26.92 bn, FCF $9.1 bn. 25-for-1 stock split announced. Dividend +9.4% to $10.50 quarterly pre-split.
- Q4 2025 call – ~$700 m 2026 reinvestment programme announced (gen-AI, Connected Trip, US/Asia expansion); $500–550 m in-year transformation savings.
- 29 Oct 2025 (Q3 2025) – revenue $9.01 bn (+13%), gross bookings ~$50 bn (+14%; +10% cc), adjusted EBITDA $4.2 bn (+15%), FCF $1.4 bn; full-year outlook raised.
- October 2025 – Booking.com expanded Smart Messenger and Auto-Reply (gen-AI) to handle real-time travel disruptions in US, UK, Australia, NZ, Singapore.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday 28 April 2026 (after-market) | Q1 2026 earnings release; conference call 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Tuesday 2 June 2026 (11:00 a.m. ET) | 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders |
| Early June 2026 | Next quarterly dividend ex-date (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec cycle) |
| ~28–29 July 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings (typically late July / early August) |
| Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 earnings (typically last week of October) |
| n/a | No standalone investor day announced for 2026 |
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Disclaimer: This research note is prepared for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. ChartsView and its authors are not registered investment advisers. All financial figures are sourced from Booking Holdings press releases, the FY2025 10-K, partner disclosures and reputable financial media as of 27 April 2026 and may be subject to revision after the Q1 2026 print on 28 April. Travel-platform investing carries the additional risk that regulatory rulings (DMA, parity litigation, fines) and FX/macro travel-demand cycles can move share prices materially in either direction.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Booking Holdings operates the largest online travel platform by gross bookings, monetising accommodations, flights, car hire and restaurant reservations through Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, OpenTable and Rentalcars.com. FY2025 revenue reached $26.92 bn (+13.4%) on $186.1 bn of gross bookings and 1.235 bn room nights, with an 87.4% gross margin and $9.09 bn of free cash flow. The structural driver is the migration to the merchant model (now ~66% of revenue, ~72% of bookings) at a 14.8% take rate, combined with Genius loyalty supplying direct demand. The nearest catalyst is Q1 2026 results, with company guidance of room nights +5–7% and revenue +14–16%, alongside a $700 m 2026 reinvestment programme in gen-AI and the Connected Trip.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would come from sustained Connected Trip transaction growth, take-rate stability, gen-AI-driven cost leverage extending beyond the ~10% customer-service reduction, and continued FCF supporting the ~$21.8 bn buyback authorisation. Materialisation of further EU Digital Markets Act actions, adverse outcomes on the €413.24 m CNMC appeal or German parity damages, marketing intensity rising further beyond 4.5% of Q4 bookings, agentic-AI disintermediation by Alphabet, or softer discretionary travel would weaken the thesis.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- InvalidatesAny disclosure that directly contradicts a material claim in the bull case.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 27 Apr 2026.