Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) - Company Research
Last Updated: 22 August 2026
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is the Coca-Cola system's largest bottler by revenue, serving nearly 600 million consumers across 31 countries from Norway to New Zealand and, since 2024, the Philippines. It does not own the brands it sells. It owns the plants, the trucks, the coolers and the exclusive territory rights, and it buys concentrate from The Coca-Cola Company under a pricing formula that is directly linked to its own revenue per case. Understanding that mechanism is most of what you need to understand the economics. This report covers the half-year results published on 4 August 2026 and is built from company filings only, with no analyst opinions or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc (UK-incorporated) |
| Ticker / Exchanges | CCEP on NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam and the Spanish Stock Exchanges. ISIN GB00BDCPN049. Member of the Nasdaq-100 and the FTSE 100 |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive — non-alcoholic beverages, bottling and distribution |
| Reporting currency | Euro. Accounts are prepared under IFRS; CCEP is a foreign private issuer and files Form 20-F, not Form 10-K |
| Share price | $108.00 (NASDAQ close, 21 August 2026); approximately GBP 78 to 80 on the London Stock Exchange, which quotes CCEP in pounds rather than pence |
| Market cap | ~$47.7bn, equivalent to ~€40.9bn at the 21 August 2026 rate of 1.1678 dollars per euro |
| Revenue (FY2025) | €20,901m, up 2.3% year on year as reported |
| Revenue (trailing twelve months to 3 Jul 2026) | €21,351m |
| Net profit (FY2025) | €1,942m attributable to owners of the parent; reported diluted EPS €4.26, comparable diluted EPS €4.11 |
| CEO / Leadership | Damian Gammell, Chief Executive Officer. Chief Financial Officer Edward (Ed) Walker, in post since 1 July 2024 |
| Employees | Approximately 39,000 colleagues |
| Headquarters | Uxbridge, United Kingdom |
| Shares in issue | 442,228,029 at 31 July 2026, with no shares held in treasury. Repurchased shares are cancelled |
| Major shareholders | Olive Partners S.A. (Daurella family / Cobega) approximately 37.3%; The Coca-Cola Company approximately 19% |
| Latest reported period | H1 2026, the six months ended 3 July 2026, released 4 August 2026 |
Sources: H1 2026 half-year report (Form 6-K), 2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F.
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- An exclusive territory franchise that cannot be replicated: CCEP holds perpetual-style bottling rights across 31 countries, serving more than 4 million customers. Rebuilding the plants, the cold-drink equipment and the direct-store-delivery relationships would be prohibitively slow and capital-intensive.
- Energy and zero-sugar are doing the heavy lifting: in H1 2026 energy volumes rose 18.6% with category share up 230 basis points, zero-sugar volumes grew about 10% and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar rose 10.7% — growth in the accretive parts of the mix rather than in water.
- Southeast Asia is a genuine second engine: the Philippines is running at an EBIT margin close to its 10% target with a new production facility due on stream in 2027, and Indonesian sparkling volumes have returned to growth following the route-to-market overhaul completed at the end of 2025.
- Cash returns are systematic, not opportunistic: a dividend payout ratio held within half a percentage point of the 50% policy for five straight years, plus a €1bn buyback in which every repurchased share is cancelled, shrinking the count from 449m in February to 442m by July 2026.
- Leverage is inside the target band and falling on a multi-year view: net debt to comparable EBITDA of 2.7x sits within the 2.5x to 3.0x target range, down from 3.5x at the end of 2022 despite funding the Philippines acquisition.
Bear Case
- Incidence pricing caps the reward for good execution: concentrate cost is contractually indexed to CCEP's own revenue per unit case, so successful pricing and mix work automatically inflates cost of sales. In H1 2026 cost of sales per case rose 0.6% against revenue per case of 0.4%.
- Core Europe is barely growing: Europe volumes fell 0.2% across FY2025, German volumes declined in both FY2025 and H1 2026 on consumer trading down, and European away-from-home volumes were negative at minus 0.6% in H1 2026.
- The H1 2026 headline is flattered by the calendar: FY2026 has six extra selling days in the first quarter and six fewer in the fourth. Reported H1 volume growth of 5.6% was only 2.2% on a days-adjusted basis, so the second half faces the mirror image.
- Total dependence on a single franchisor: The Coca-Cola Company sets concentrate prices, payment terms and conditions of supply, owns roughly 19% of CCEP, and CCEP's own credit rating can be materially influenced by changes in the franchisor's rating.
- Regulation is a one-way ratchet: the French sugar tax increase drove four consecutive quarters of decline in Coca-Cola Original Taste in France, and the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation requires every member state to run a deposit return scheme by 1 January 2029, with Spain, France and Italy lacking comprehensive systems today.
3. Business Segments
CCEP reports two geographic operating segments. Note that the label formerly used for the second segment, API or Australia, Pacific and Indonesia, has been replaced by APS — Australia, Pacific and Southeast Asia.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Europe | 73.7% (€15,404m) | Four business units — France, Belgium, Netherlands and Nordics €5,302m; Great Britain €3,470m; Iberia €3,429m; Germany €3,203m. Mature, high-share developed markets where growth comes from price, pack mix, zero-sugar and energy rather than volume. FY2025 comparable operating profit €2,139m on 2,587m unit cases, at €5.97 revenue per case |
| APS — Australia, Pacific & Southeast Asia | 26.3% (€5,497m) | Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands and Papua New Guinea €3,279m, plus Southeast Asia covering the Philippines and Indonesia €2,218m. The growth engine, with lower revenue per case and faster volume growth. FY2025 comparable operating profit €669m on 1,371m unit cases, at €4.26 revenue per case |
The H1 2026 split was broadly unchanged at Europe €7,911m, or 73.8%, and APS €2,813m, or 26.2%. CCEP discloses category and channel data as volume mix and volume growth rather than as a percentage of revenue, so no revenue split by drink category or by home versus away-from-home channel is published.
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. CCEP buys concentrate and syrup from The Coca-Cola Company and other brand partners including Monster, Bacardi, Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard, manufactures and packages the finished drink, and sells and delivers it to retail and hospitality customers inside exclusive geographic territories. Revenue is simply unit cases sold multiplied by revenue per unit case, where a unit case is about 5.678 litres. Everything management does falls into one of those two levers.
Incidence pricing, the mechanism that defines the margin. CCEP's concentrate cost is not a fixed price per litre. It is contractually linked to CCEP's own revenue per unit case, which the company states plainly in its guidance. The consequence is that when CCEP raises headline price or improves mix, The Coca-Cola Company automatically shares in the upside and cost of sales per case rises alongside revenue per case. This is visible in H1 2026, where revenue per case rose 0.4% and cost of sales per case rose 0.6%. It is the single most important reason a bottler's margin structure looks different from a brand owner's.
The moat is physical, not legal-only. Exclusive territory rights are the legal layer, but the durable advantage is route-to-market density: manufacturing plants close to demand, more than 80,000 new coolers added in H1 2026 alone on an already large installed base, and direct relationships with more than 4 million customers. CCEP claims, on Nielsen and IRI data, to be the number one value creator in retail, delivering more revenue growth for customers than any FMCG peer.
Revenue and margin growth management. The stated levers are headline pricing, promotional optimisation, pack architecture (small cans and small PET for premiumisation against large-format value packs) and brand mix, where energy is accretive and water dilutive. By volume in H1 2026 the portfolio was 58.5% Coca-Cola trademark, 21.5% flavours and mixers, 12.0% water, sports and ready-to-drink tea and coffee, and 8.0% other including energy.
5. Financial Health
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (€m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 13,763 | +30.0% | €2.15 | €2.83 | €1.40 | €13,140m |
| FY2022 | 17,320 | +25.8% | €3.29 | €3.39 | €1.68 | €11,907m |
| FY2023 | 18,302 | +5.7% | €3.63 | €3.71 | €1.84 | €11,396m |
| FY2024 | 20,438 | +11.7% | €3.08 | €3.95 | €1.97 | €11,331m |
| FY2025 | 20,901 | +2.3% | €4.26 | €4.11 | €2.04 | €10,694m |
GAAP EPS here means reported diluted earnings per share under IFRS, and Adjusted EPS means CCEP's own comparable diluted EPS measure. Long-term debt is total borrowings, current plus non-current, at each year end; all five figures were re-derived directly from CCEP's SEC XBRL company facts rather than taken from secondary sources. FY2021 revenue growth reflects the first substantially full year of Coca-Cola Amatil, acquired in May 2021, and FY2024 includes the Philippines business from 23 February 2024, so neither year is organic.
Why FY2025 reported EPS exceeds comparable EPS. In every other year of this table comparable EPS is the higher number. FY2025 reverses because reported profit was flattered by a €104m pre-tax gain on property sales in Germany and Great Britain, worth about €0.18 per share, and a €67m deferred tax credit from tax rate and law changes, worth about €0.15, which together more than offset €105m of restructuring charges.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 (to 3 Jul 2026) | €10,724m | €2.20 | €2.17 |
| H2 2025 (derived)† | €10,627m | €2.09 | €2.27 |
| H1 2025 (to 27 Jun 2025) | €10,274m | €2.02 | €1.99 |
| H2 2024 (derived)† | €10,610m | €1.98 | €1.35 |
| H1 2024 (to 28 Jun 2024) | €9,828m | €1.97 | €1.73 |
| FY2025 total | €20,901m | €4.11 | €4.26 |
† CCEP reports half-yearly, publishing an H1 interim report and a full year. It does not publish a standalone second half, so H2 rows are derived by subtracting H1 from the full year. The derived H2 earnings per share figures are approximations, because the weighted average share count falls through the year as buyback shares are cancelled. The first and third quarters are trading updates giving revenue and volume only, with no earnings or balance sheet, which is why this table uses half-year rather than quarterly rows.
H1 2026 in detail. Revenue of €10,724m was up 4.4% as reported and 6.1% on a comparable fx-neutral basis, on volume of 2,041m unit cases. Comparable operating profit rose 6.5%, or 8.1% fx-neutral, to €1,481m; reported operating profit was €1,458m. Comparable free cash flow was €435m and an interim dividend of €0.82 was declared. Note the calendar shift: reported volume growth of 5.6% was only 2.2% adjusted for six extra selling days in the first quarter, which reverse in the fourth.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 net cash from operating activities was €2,953m, with €750m of property, plant and equipment purchases and €200m of capitalised software, and depreciation and amortisation of €923m. CCEP's own comparable free cash flow measure, which deducts lease principal and interest as well as capital expenditure, was €1,836m. At 31 December 2025 cash was €918m plus €39m of short-term investments against total borrowings of €10,694m, giving CCEP-stated net debt of €9,823m and leverage of 2.7 times comparable EBITDA.
At 3 July 2026 total borrowings had risen to €12,189m and cash to €1,753m plus €241m of short-term investments, so net debt rose only modestly to €10,284m. The gross increase is largely pre-funding, and the first half is CCEP's seasonal working capital peak. CCEP publishes its leverage ratio only at the full year.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $108.00 (NASDAQ close, 21 August 2026), equivalent to about €92.48 |
| Market cap | ~$47.7bn, equivalent to ~€40.9bn at 1.1678 dollars per euro |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~20.8x (€92.48 / trailing twelve month reported diluted EPS of €4.44, being FY2025 €4.26 less H1 2025 €1.99 plus H1 2026 €2.17). On CCEP's comparable diluted EPS of €4.29 over the same period the multiple is ~21.6x |
| P/E (forward) | ~18.8x on a consensus forward EPS estimate of about $5.74. CCEP does not guide to an EPS figure; its FY2026 guidance is for 3% to 4% comparable fx-neutral revenue growth and about 7% comparable operating profit growth |
| P/S (TTM) | ~1.9x (market cap ~€40.9bn / trailing twelve month revenue €21,351m) |
| Enterprise value | ~€51.0bn (market cap ~€40.9bn + total borrowings €12,189m − cash €1,753m and short-term investments €241m, all at 3 July 2026). CCEP's own net debt measure of €10,284m differs because it also adjusts for the fair value of hedging instruments and related financial assets and liabilities |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~13.5x. EBITDA of €3,780m is trailing twelve month reported operating profit of €2,887m plus depreciation and amortisation of €893m, each built from the FY2025 full year less H1 2025 plus H1 2026. This uses reported rather than comparable operating profit, so it includes the FY2025 property disposal gains |
| P/FCF | ~19.9x on a simple basis (market cap ~€40.9bn / free cash flow €2,051m; free cash flow = trailing operating cash flow €3,002m − trailing capital expenditure €951m covering property, plant and equipment plus capitalised software). On CCEP's own stricter comparable free cash flow definition, which also deducts lease principal and interest, FY2025 free cash flow was €1,836m and the multiple would be ~22.3x |
| 52-week high | $113.67 |
| 52-week low | $84.66 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 5.89% (8,561,995 shares against a float of 196,890,644), settlement date 31 July 2026. The float is small relative to shares in issue because Olive Partners at roughly 37.3% and The Coca-Cola Company at roughly 19% are excluded, so the percentage looks high against shares outstanding of about 1.9% |
| Days to cover | 4.26 |
| Dividend yield | ~2.25% on the NASDAQ price. The dividend is declared in euros, so dollar and sterling yields move with exchange rates independently of the declared amount |
| Net debt / comparable EBITDA | 2.7x at 31 December 2025, inside the 2.5x to 3.0x target range. CCEP does not publish this ratio at the half year |
Market data was pulled live on 22 August 2026. Financial statement inputs are from the H1 2026 half-year report and the FY2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F, re-derived from SEC XBRL company facts.
You can compare CCEP with other bottlers on our Live Charts page, and track the consumer and inflation releases that drive volumes on the Economic Calendar.
7. What Are They Building
Broadening the portfolio. Zero-sugar volumes grew about 10% in H1 2026, with Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Zero Caffeine relaunched in black and gold packaging. Sports drinks rose 12%, helped by Powerade launching in Indonesia and Aquarius Extra in Iberia. Energy was the standout at 18.6% growth with category share up 230 basis points, driven by Monster innovation including Viking Berry, Ultra Blue Hawaiian and a Lando Norris edition, plus new listings in France, Sweden and the Netherlands. Alcohol-adjacent launches include Spiced Rum Bacardi and Coke and Absolut Sprite Pineapple.
Execution in the trade. H1 2026 included CCEP's biggest ever FIFA World Cup activation with more than 500,000 displays, and more than 80,000 new coolers added, roughly a 5% increase in the installed base. New customer wins included Parkdean Resorts and Papa John's in Great Britain, Domino's in Australia, plus McDonald's and Marriott International.
Scaling Southeast Asia. This is where the capital is going. Indonesian sparkling volumes returned to growth on the back of a new route-to-market model completed at the end of 2025 and innovation including Sprite Nipis Mint and Fanta Fruit Punch. The Philippines is running close to its 10% EBIT margin target, a new production facility is on track to start production in 2027, and a shared service centre in Manila has scaled past 250 colleagues.
Technology and AI. The S/4HANA deployment is on track, AI and data training workshops have been delivered to 8,000 colleagues, and an agentic AI application called KIRA is being used to generate brand insights and speed up market decisions, alongside enhanced promotional evaluation and pricing tools.
Packaging and sustainability. CCEP targets net zero across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 by 2040, validated by the Science Based Targets initiative, with a near-term target to cut absolute emissions 30% by 2030 against a 2019 baseline. It has committed to at least 30% recycled PET by 2030 and to collecting the equivalent of 85% of bottles and cans sold. Progress at FY2025 was emissions down 18.9% since 2019, 75.7% of bottles and cans collected, and 45.9% recycled PET, already well ahead of the 2030 target. A €385m emissions reduction investment plan runs from 2025 to 2027, and CCEP retained the CDP A List for climate for a tenth consecutive year. A deposit return scheme launched in Portugal in H1 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — franchisor, not a competitor | ~$392.0bn | FY2025 net operating revenues $47.94bn, up about 2%; net income $13.11bn. Owns roughly 19% of CCEP and sets its concentrate terms |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) | ~$23.6bn | FY2025 revenue MXN 291,746m (about $17.3bn); net income MXN 23,845m. The largest Coca-Cola bottler by volume |
| Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) | ~$22.6bn (GBP 16.6bn) | FY2025 net sales revenue €11,604m, up 7.9% as reported and 8.1% organic; net income €940m. The closest listed comparator |
| Carlsberg (CARL-B) | ~$18.2bn (DKK 116.5bn) | FY2025 revenue DKK 89,095m, up 18.8%, reflecting the first full year of Britvic; net income DKK 5,955m |
| Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) | ~$12.6bn | FY2025 net sales $7.23bn, up 4.8%; net income $571m. The largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States |
Market capitalisations were pulled live on 21 and 22 August 2026 and converted at spot rates of 1.3648 dollars per pound and 0.156299 dollars per Danish krone. Peer revenue and net income figures come from each company's own annual income statement. The most instructive contrast is with Coca-Cola HBC, which grew organic revenue 8.1% in 2025 against CCEP's 2.8% adjusted comparable fx-neutral — emerging-market inflation plus volume against CCEP's developed-market price and mix model.
Britvic is no longer a listed comparator: Carlsberg completed its GBP 3.3bn acquisition on 17 January 2025 and Britvic shares were delisted on 20 January 2025. There is no meaningful independent listed PepsiCo bottler in CCEP's territories, since PepsiCo operates a largely owned-bottler model there.
9. Insider Activity
Chief Executive Officer Damian Gammell has not been recorded in any discretionary market transaction during the period under review. As a foreign private issuer CCEP is exempt from Section 16, so it does not file Forms 4; director and PDMR dealings are disclosed monthly by regulatory announcement and bundled into Form 6-K filings. On that basis there have been no insider transactions of a discretionary nature — no open-market purchases and no open-market sales — by CCEP directors or persons discharging managerial responsibilities in the six months to 22 August 2026. Every disclosed dealing is a routine employee share plan acquisition or a share award grant, summarised below.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan A. de Rueda Gamboa, Chief Public Affairs Officer | 12 Aug 2026 | Award grant | 9,172 | $0.00 | Nil at grant | Long Term Incentive Plan, performance share units vesting 26 Mar 2029 |
| Edward Walker, Chief Financial Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Svetlana Walker, General Counsel | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Stephen Lusk, Chief Commercial Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 1.889300 | $105.007100 | $198.39 | UK Shareshop |
| Stephen Moorhouse, Chief Customer Service Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Leendert den Hollander, Chief Strategy Officer | 20 Jul 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.474300 | $105.007094 | $198.99 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Edward Walker, Chief Financial Officer | 20 Apr 2026 | Plan acquisition | 3.725670 | $98.349995 | $199.86 | UK Share Plan, including free matching shares |
| Ana Callol, General Manager Iberia | 21 Apr 2026 | Award vesting | 3.909854 | $0.00 | Nil | Employee Benefit Trust matching award |
One presentational trap is worth flagging. The weighted average price reported on UK Share Plan lines, around $53.65 in April and $57.28 in July, averages the purchased shares with free one-for-one matching shares priced at zero. The actual market price paid was $98.35 in April and $105.01 in July, which is what the table above shows.
10. Key Risks
- Total dependence on The Coca-Cola Company: CCEP owns no rights to the brands it sells, holding territory bottling agreements instead. The franchisor determines prices, payment terms and other conditions of concentrate supply, owns roughly 19% of the company, and CCEP's credit rating can be materially influenced by changes in the franchisor's rating. The Form 20-F carries a distinct System Risks category for exactly this.
- Incidence pricing transfers part of every pricing gain: because concentrate cost is indexed to CCEP's revenue per unit case, revenue growth management work automatically inflates cost of sales, structurally capping how much of a price or mix improvement reaches operating profit.
- Sugar, packaging and excise taxes: the French sugar tax increase from March 2025 caused four consecutive quarters of decline in Coca-Cola Original Taste in France, and FY2025 cost of sales per case was inflated by tax increases in France and Great Britain. The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy applies at 18p and 24p per litre by sugar band.
- Packaging regulation and deposit return schemes: the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation entered into force in February 2025 and requires every member state to operate a deposit return scheme for single-use plastic bottles and cans up to three litres by 1 January 2029 — a material capital and operating cost event in Spain, France and Italy, which lack comprehensive systems today.
- Commodity and input cost inflation: guidance assumes only about 1.5% growth in cost of sales per unit case, protected by hedging that was raised to roughly 90% for FY2026 from about 80% at the February guide. Hedging is a one-year buffer, not a structural defence, and the increase in the hedge ratio implies management saw rising exposure.
- Currency translation: a euro reporter with large Australian dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, sterling and kina exposure. FY2025 carried a €686m foreign currency translation loss through other comprehensive income, and currency cut reported APS revenue by 6.5 percentage points. Currency controls in Papua New Guinea restrict conversion and remittance of €55m of cash held at 3 July 2026.
- Consumer weakness in core Europe: management describes the consumer environment as challenging. Germany declined in both FY2025 and H1 2026 on affordability-driven trading down, European away-from-home volumes were negative in H1 2026, and growth is skewing to large-format value packs that carry negative pack mix.
- Southeast Asia execution and geopolitical exposure: Indonesian volumes fell double digits in FY2025 on a weaker consumer and macro backdrop, with management citing the situation in the Middle East as a factor and describing the full impact as still uncertain. The Philippines carries typhoon and flooding disruption risk and is only about 60% owned, so €37m of H1 2026 profit and €468m of balance sheet equity sit with non-controlling interests.
- Leverage against a heavy commitment schedule: net debt of €10,284m at 3 July 2026 against total equity of roughly €8.3bn, with €1,663m of borrowings due within a year, while simultaneously funding €1bn of buybacks, roughly €1bn of annual dividends and capital expenditure of about 5% of revenue.
11. Recent Developments
- 17 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and a new buyback. Revenue of €20,901m, comparable diluted EPS of €4.11 up 6.2%, comparable free cash flow of €1,836m and a dividend of €2.04, alongside the announcement of a further €1bn share buyback; the shares rose 4.98% on the day.
- 18 Feb 2026 — First buyback tranche commences. The initial €500m tranche began across US venues, the London Stock Exchange, CBOE Europe and Aquis, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled rather than held in treasury.
- 13 Mar 2026 — Annual Report and Form 20-F filed. CCEP filed its 2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F with the SEC, containing the audited FY2025 accounts and full risk factor disclosure.
- 16 Apr 2026 — Notice of Annual General Meeting. The 2026 AGM was called for 28 May 2026 in London, reaffirming FY2026 comparable operating profit guidance and putting the €1bn buyback and amended incentive plan rules to shareholders.
- 24 Apr 2026 — First buyback tranche completed. The initial €500m tranche finished, roughly two months after it began.
- 28 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 trading update. Revenue of €5,001m was up 6.7% reported and 9.4% fx-neutral on 970m unit cases, with Europe at €3,549m and APS at €1,452m; a first-half interim dividend of €0.82 was declared and FY2026 guidance reaffirmed.
- 28 May 2026 — AGM exposes a governance flashpoint. All resolutions passed, but the Takeover Panel Rule 9 waiver carried with only 75.39% of independent shareholder votes in favour and 24.61% against, against 99.21% support for the buyback authorities. The waiver caps Olive Partners' concert party interest at 41.4289% as buybacks shrink the share count.
- 02 Jul 2026 — Second buyback tranche announced. The final €500m tranche was set to commence on 6 July 2026 and run to 18 December 2026, executed by Goldman Sachs with a maximum of 42,289,442 shares.
- 04 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results beat but shares slip. Revenue of €10,724m was up 6.1% fx-neutral, comparable operating profit of €1,481m up 8.1% fx-neutral and comparable diluted EPS of €2.20 up 10.6%, with FY2026 guidance reaffirmed and €593m of the €1bn buyback complete at 31 July; the shares nevertheless fell on the day.
- 12 Aug 2026 — Routine incentive grant disclosed. An award of 9,172 performance share units to the Chief Public Affairs Officer was announced, alongside continuing transactions in own shares under the buyback programme.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 03 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 trading update, confirmed in the financial calendar published with the H1 2026 results. Expect revenue and volume only, plus declaration of the second-half interim dividend.
- Expected Nov 2026 — ex-dividend and record dates for the second-half interim dividend, following the FY2025 precedent of a 5 November declaration and 14 November record date.
- Expected Dec 2026 — payment of the second-half interim dividend, which was paid on 3 December in the prior year.
- 18 Dec 2026 — scheduled end of the second €500m buyback tranche, which may complete earlier.
- Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 preliminary results. FY2024 results were published on 14 February 2025 and FY2025 results on 17 February 2026.
- Expected Mar 2027 — 2026 Annual Report and Form 20-F filing, based on filings of 21 March 2025 and 13 March 2026.
- Expected May 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting, following AGMs held on 22 May 2025 and 28 May 2026.
- Expected 2027 — start of production at the new Philippines manufacturing facility.
- 01 Jan 2029 — deadline for every EU member state to operate a deposit return scheme for single-use plastic bottles and cans under the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation.
No new capital markets day has been announced; the most recent was held in Manila and announced on 14 May 2025, where the mid-term objectives of about 4% comparable fx-neutral revenue growth, about 7% comparable operating profit growth and a minimum €1.7bn of comparable free cash flow were set out.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is the Coca-Cola system's largest bottler by revenue, buying concentrate from The Coca-Cola Company and manufacturing, distributing and selling finished drinks under exclusive territory rights across 31 countries, split into Europe at 73.7% of revenue and Australia, Pacific & Southeast Asia at 26.3%. Its concentrate cost is contractually indexed to its own revenue per unit case through incidence pricing, so the franchisor shares in every pricing gain. FY2025 revenue was €20,901m, up 2.3%, with comparable diluted EPS of €4.11 and a dividend of €2.04 at a payout ratio of 49.6%. H1 2026, reported on 4 August 2026, showed revenue of €10,724m up 6.1% fx-neutral and comparable diluted EPS of €2.20 up 10.6%, with FY2026 guidance reaffirmed at 3% to 4% comparable revenue growth and about 7% operating profit growth. The structural growth driver is Southeast Asia, where the Philippines is close to its 10% EBIT margin target and a new plant starts production in 2027.
What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed by energy and zero-sugar continuing to compound at H1 2026 rates, the Philippines and Indonesia scaling to offset flat European volumes, and the €1bn buyback completing on schedule by 18 December 2026 while leverage stays inside the 2.5x to 3.0x band. It is invalidated by any change to the bottling agreements or concentrate terms set by The Coca-Cola Company, by European consumer weakness deepening beyond the negative away-from-home volumes already visible, by the second-half calendar reversal proving larger than the six fewer selling days imply, or by sugar and packaging regulation such as the EU deposit return mandate imposing costs faster than pricing can absorb.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 trading update (73 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "An exclusive territory franchise that cannot be replicated:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Total dependence on The Coca-Cola Company:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 22 Aug 2026.
