Technology

Last Updated: 06 Oct 2026

ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW) sells a cloud platform that large organisations use to run workflows across IT, employee services, customer service, security and finance. Its best-known product manages IT service requests and incidents, and the company has built outwards into customer relationship management, security and, increasingly, AI agents that complete tasks on their own. Almost all revenue comes from subscriptions.

FY2025 revenue was $13,278m, up 21%, with GAAP net income of $1,748m and free cash flow of $4,636m (company figure). In Q2 2026 subscription revenue rose 24.5% to $3,877m, and on 22 Jul 2026 management raised its FY2026 subscription revenue guidance to $15,760–15,780m. ServiceNow has changed shape in the past year: it split its shares 5-for-1 on 17 Dec 2025, closed the purchases of Moveworks, Veza and Armis (about $7.6bn), and borrowed to pay for them. The shares closed at $136.08 on 05 Oct 2026, a market value of about $140.7bn.

This refresh draws on ServiceNow's quarterly press releases (SEC 8-K exhibits), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC XBRL company facts and Form 4 filings, all retrieved on 06 Oct 2026. It replaces the version last updated on 01 Jun 2026. All per-share figures are on the post-split basis. Follow the price on ChartsView Live Charts.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Full name	ServiceNow, Inc.
Ticker	NOW (NYSE)
Sector	Technology: enterprise workflow software, AI agents and IT service management
CEO / Leadership	Bill McDermott (Chairman and CEO); Gina Mastantuono (President and CFO); Amit Zavery (President, Chief Product Officer and COO)
Market cap	~$140.7bn (1,033.9m shares × $136.08 at the 05 Oct 2026 close)
Revenue (FY2025)	$13,278m (+21% YoY); subscription revenue $12,883m
Net income (FY2025)	$1,748m GAAP; GAAP diluted EPS $1.67; non-GAAP diluted EPS $3.51
Employees	29,187 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K)
Scale	About 8,700 customers; 658 customers paying more than $5m a year (+23%); current remaining performance obligations $13.20bn at 30 Jun 2026 (+21%)
Fiscal year	Calendar year (FY2026 ends 31 Dec 2026)
Dividend	None

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Distilled from the full report below. Factual only, no ratings.

Bull Case

• Growth above 20% at scale: Q2 2026 subscription revenue rose 24.5% to $3,877m, including Armis from 20 Apr 2026, and FY2026 subscription revenue guidance was raised twice, to $15,760–15,780m (+22.5%).
• AI is now a billion-dollar line: ServiceNow said its AI products passed $1bn of annual contract value in Q2 2026, and it is targeting 30% of contract value from AI by 2030.
• Heavy cash generation: Operating cash flow was $5,444m in FY2025 and company-defined free cash flow $4,636m, a 35% margin. Management guides to the same 35% margin for FY2026.
• Platform widening into security: Armis and Veza add asset visibility and identity security. ServiceNow launched six Autonomous Security products built on them on 04 Aug 2026.
• Deep large-customer base: 658 customers pay more than $5m a year, up about 23%, and the company signed 123 deals worth more than $1m in net new annual contract value in Q2 2026.

Bear Case

• Debt-funded acquisitions: Total borrowings rose from $1,491m at the end of 2025 to about $7,517m at 30 Jun 2026 ($5,435m of long-term debt plus $2,082m of short-term borrowings) to pay for Armis.
• GAAP margins squeezed: Q2 2026 GAAP operating margin was 4% ($162m), against 11% a year earlier, as acquired intangibles were amortised. Q2 GAAP EPS fell to $0.29 from $0.37.
• Slowing growth guided: Q3 2026 subscription revenue guidance implies 20.5% growth even with Armis included, below Q2's 24.5%. Management's FY2025 10-K says revenue growth is expected to decline over time.
• AI disruption fears hit the shares: The stock fell from a 52-week high of $192.97 on 30 Oct 2025 to $81.24 on 10 Apr 2026 as investors questioned whether AI agents would reduce demand for seat-based software.
• High multiple on GAAP earnings: The shares trade at about 85x trailing GAAP EPS of $1.60 and about 52x trailing EV/EBITDA.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

ServiceNow's Now Platform lets companies digitise and automate work that crosses departments: an employee requesting a laptop, a customer reporting a fault, a security team patching a vulnerable device. Products share a single platform and data model, with AI assistants and agents built in. ServiceNow reports one operating segment; the disclosed revenue categories are below.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Subscription	97.0% ($12,883m, FY2025)	Access to the Now Platform and its workflow, AI and security products, recognised evenly over the contract term
Professional services and other	3.0% ($395m, FY2025)	Implementation, consulting and training to help customers deploy the platform

FY2025 figures from the FY2025 Form 10-K; percentages are ChartsView calculations.

By geography (FY2025 10-K):

• North America: $8,348m (62.9%);
• Europe, Middle East and Africa: $3,402m (25.6%);
• Asia Pacific and other: $1,528m (11.5%).

4. The Business Model

How it makes money. Customers sign multi-year subscriptions and ServiceNow recognises the revenue evenly over the term. Contracted revenue not yet recognised (remaining performance obligations) was $29.0bn at 30 Jun 2026, of which $13.20bn is due within twelve months. Growth comes from new customers, from existing customers adding products and users, and increasingly from AI products such as Now Assist. Non-GAAP subscription gross margin is guided at 81% for FY2026, so most extra revenue drops through to operating profit and cash flow.

Where the moat sits. ServiceNow's advantages are:

• switching costs: once IT, HR and customer service processes run on the platform, replacing it is costly and risky;
• a single platform and data model, so new products can be sold into the existing base;
• a large partner network, including Accenture, Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud, NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI;
• about 8,700 customers, including 658 paying more than $5m a year.

What changed in 2025–2026. ServiceNow moved from organic growth to large acquisitions. It closed Moveworks (AI assistant, 15 Dec 2025), Veza (identity security, about $1.2bn, 02 Mar 2026) and Armis (asset and cyber exposure management, about $7.6bn preliminary consideration, 20 Apr 2026). It financed Armis with a $4bn term loan, then refinanced with about $3.9bn of senior notes in May 2026 and commercial paper. It also split its stock 5-for-1, and in Jan 2026 added $5bn to its buyback authorisation, including a $2bn accelerated share repurchase executed in Q1 2026. At its Financial Analyst Day on 04 May 2026 it set a 2030 goal of more than $30bn of subscription revenue.

5. Financial Health

Sources: ServiceNow quarterly press releases (SEC 8-K exhibits and Business Wire), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC XBRL company facts (data.sec.gov) for revenue, EPS, debt, cash flow, D&A and operating income. Per-share figures before Dec 2025 are divided by five for the 5-for-1 split.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$5,896m	+30%	$0.23	$1.18	$0.00	$1,484m
FY2022	$7,245m	+23%	$0.32	$1.52	$0.00	$1,486m
FY2023	$8,971m	+24%	$1.68	$2.16	$0.00	$1,488m
FY2024	$10,984m	+22%	$1.37	$2.78	$0.00	$1,489m
FY2025	$13,278m	+21%	$1.67	$3.51	$0.00	$1,491m

Notes on the annual table:

• Adjusted EPS is ServiceNow's non-GAAP diluted EPS, which excludes stock-based compensation, amortisation of acquired intangibles and other items. FY2024 is as restated in the Q4 2025 release, after gains and losses on strategic investments were excluded from non-GAAP results; earlier years are as first reported, divided by five.
• Long-term debt is the net carrying value of ServiceNow's senior notes (XBRL ConvertibleLongTermNotesPayable and LongTermDebt). At 30 Jun 2026 long-term debt was $5,435m, plus $2,082m of short-term borrowings, after the Armis financing.

Quarterly results (most recent first)

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$3,987m	$0.90	$0.29
Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026)	$3,770m	$0.97	$0.45
Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025)	$3,568m	$0.92	$0.38
Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)	$3,407m	$0.96	$0.48
Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$3,215m	$0.81	$0.37
Q1 2025 (to 31 Mar 2025)	$3,088m	$0.82†	$0.44
FY2025 total	$13,278m	$3.51	$1.67

Notes on the quarterly table:

• Release dates: Q2 2026 on 22 Jul 2026; Q1 2026 on 22 Apr 2026; Q4 2025 on 28 Jan 2026; Q3 2025 on 29 Oct 2025.
• † Derived by ChartsView as the FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $3.51 less the three later quarters. Q2 2025 non-GAAP EPS is the comparative shown in the Q2 2026 release. GAAP EPS for Q1 and Q2 2025 is the split-adjusted figure from SEC XBRL.
• Q2 2026 in more detail:
  • subscription revenue $3,877m (+24.5%; +23% in constant currency);
  • GAAP operating income $162m (4% margin), non-GAAP operating margin 29.5%;
  • GAAP results include $273m of gains on strategic investments and a $51m tax valuation allowance release.

Cash flow and balance sheet.

• Cash flow (FY2025).
  • Operating cash flow was $5,444m and purchases of property and equipment $868m, giving free cash flow of $4,576m on that definition. ServiceNow reports $4,636m, a 35% margin.
  • D&A was $738m and GAAP operating income $1,824m (13.7% margin). Stock-based compensation was $1,955m.
• Cash flow (H1 2026).
  • Operating cash flow was $2,257m, capex $255m and D&A $665m, of which $296m was amortisation of intangibles. GAAP operating income was $665m.
  • Over the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, operating cash flow was $5,308m and capex $728m, giving free cash flow of $4,580m.
• Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026.
  • Cash and cash equivalents were $2,503m and short-term investments $2,161m, a total of $4,664m.
  • Long-term debt was $5,435m and short-term borrowings, mainly commercial paper, $2,082m. Goodwill was $9,837m after the acquisitions.
  • No shares were repurchased in Q2 2026; about $4.2bn of buyback authorisation remained after Q1.
• FY2026 guidance (22 Jul 2026):
  • subscription revenue of $15,760–15,780m (+22.5%; +21% in constant currency);
  • non-GAAP subscription gross margin of 81%;
  • non-GAAP operating margin of 31.5% (GAAP 10%);
  • free cash flow margin of 35%;
  • Q3 2026 subscription revenue of $3,975–3,980m (+20.5%) and a 31% non-GAAP operating margin.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$140.7bn (1,033.9m shares × $136.08 at the 05 Oct 2026 close)
Enterprise value	~$143.5bn = market cap ~$140.7bn + total debt ~$7.52bn (long-term debt $5,435m + short-term borrowings $2,082m) − cash and short-term investments ~$4.66bn ($2,503m + $2,161m), per the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~85.0x ($136.08 / trailing GAAP diluted EPS of $1.60: FY2025 $1.67 less H1 2025 $0.81 plus H1 2026 $0.74). On trailing non-GAAP EPS of $3.75 (Q3 2025 to Q2 2026) the multiple is ~36.3x.
P/E (forward)	~36.4x ($136.08 / $3.74, which is H1 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 annualised). ServiceNow does not give EPS guidance; its FY2026 guide is a 31.5% non-GAAP operating margin on about 1.04bn diluted shares.
P/S (TTM)	~9.6x (market cap / revenue of $14,732m over the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~52.2x (EV ~$143.5bn / EBITDA ~$2,751m). EBITDA = trailing GAAP operating income $1,680m (FY2025 $1,824m less H1 2025 $809m plus H1 2026 $665m) + trailing D&A $1,071m (the wider XBRL DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization total, including intangible amortisation). GAAP operating income is depressed by Armis acquisition costs.
P/FCF	~30.7x (market cap ~$140.7bn / trailing FCF ~$4.58bn). FCF = operating cash flow $5,308m − capex $728m, for the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026.
52-week high	$192.97 (intraday, 30 Oct 2025, split-adjusted)
52-week low	$81.24 (intraday, 10 Apr 2026)
Short interest (% of float)	2.79% (28.77m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, per MarketBeat)
Days to cover	2.0 (MarketBeat, 15 Sep 2026)
Dividend yield	Nil (no dividend)

Price-based metrics use the 05 Oct 2026 close. The 52-week range is from Yahoo Finance daily bars. For live prices see ChartsView Live Charts.

7. What Are They Building

AI agents and the control layer.

• ServiceNow Otto: Launched at Knowledge in May 2026, Otto brings Now Assist, Moveworks and ServiceNow's AI experience into one assistant for employees and customers.
• AI Control Tower: This governs and monitors AI agents, including those from other vendors, and now includes an AI Gateway. In its 01 Oct 2026 release ServiceNow described itself as a "Super Intelligence Control Tower".
• Autonomous Workforce and Build Agent: Autonomous Workforce provides AI specialists for IT, CRM, employee service and security. Build Agent, now generally available, lets developers build ServiceNow apps from coding tools such as Cursor, Windsurf, Claude Code and GitHub Copilot. Action Fabric, with Anthropic as first design partner, lets outside AI systems trigger ServiceNow workflows.

Flow by ServiceNow. Launched on 01 Oct 2026, Flow is a standalone conversational AI service desk that runs inside Slack and Microsoft Teams. Companies can buy it without the wider ServiceNow platform. General availability in North America and EMEA is expected in Q4 2026.

Security. Autonomous Security, launched on 04 Aug 2026, is a set of six security products built on Armis, Veza and AI Control Tower. More AI capabilities are due in Dec 2026.

CRM and data. ServiceNow is pushing into front-office CRM, alongside Workflow Data Fabric and its RaptorDB database. Its Q4 2025 release cited Raptor and CPQ (configure, price, quote) as outperforming. The Moveworks-based EmployeeWorks product went live at INRY in six weeks, the company said on 23 Sep 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Microsoft (MSFT)	~$3,900bn	FY2026 (to Jun 2026) revenue $331.84bn (+17.8%) (StockAnalysis, from company filings)
SAP (SAP)	~$239.8bn	2025 revenue €36.80bn (+7.7%) (StockAnalysis, from company filings)
Salesforce (CRM)	~$189.1bn	FY2026 (to Jan 2026) revenue $41.53bn (+9.6%) (StockAnalysis, from company filings)
Atlassian (TEAM)	~$49.8bn	FY2026 (to Jun 2026) revenue $6.57bn (+26.0%) (StockAnalysis, from company filings)
Workday (WDAY)	~$45.5bn	FY2026 (to Jan 2026) revenue $9.55bn (+13.1%) (StockAnalysis, from company filings)

Market caps are at the 05 Oct 2026 close from Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote pages. In security, Armis and Veza bring ServiceNow into competition with cyber exposure and identity security vendors.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Bill McDermott is Chairman and CEO. Gina Mastantuono is President and CFO. Leadership changes in 2026 include Hossein Nowbar as President and Chief Legal Officer (Jan 2026), Danielle Fontaine as Chief Accounting Officer (Feb 2026) and Simon Mouyal, formerly Armis's marketing chief, as Chief Marketing Officer (Aug 2026). McDermott made no open-market sales or purchases in the period below; his only reported transaction was shares withheld for tax when restricted stock vested. All other insider transactions were sales.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Paul Fipps (President, Global Customer Operations)	31 Aug 2026	Sale	2,034	~$147.87	~$0.30m	Outside a 10b5-1 plan (per filing summary)
Jacqueline Canney (Chief People and AI Enablement Officer)	28 Aug 2026	Sale	7,847	$138.00	~$1.08m	10b5-1 (adopted 29 May 2026)
Paul Chamberlain (director)	27 Aug 2026	Sale	2,700	~$135.50 (avg)	~$0.37m	Not stated
Bill McDermott (Chairman and CEO)	17 Aug 2026	Shares withheld for tax on RSU vesting	2,236	$117.70	~$0.26m	Not a market sale
Paul Chamberlain (director)	13 Aug 2026	Sale	1,500	$125.60	~$0.19m	10b5-1 (adopted 29 Aug 2025)
Paul Fipps (President, Global Customer Operations)	18 May 2026	Sale	1,048	$98.51	~$0.10m	10b5-1 (adopted 19 Nov 2025)
Anita Sands (director)	14 May 2026	Sale	16,445	$90.14	~$1.48m	10b5-1 box not checked

Sources: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR and StockTitan filing summaries. Share counts are post-split. Director Teresa Briggs also reported a sale of 1,595 shares in Jun 2026. No insider purchases were found.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Acquisition integration (Operational): ServiceNow spent about $11bn on Moveworks, Veza and Armis within about four months. Goodwill rose to $9,837m, and some Armis contracts can be cancelled for convenience. Poor integration would waste capital and could lead to impairments.
• Higher debt (Financial): Borrowings rose to about $7.5bn at 30 Jun 2026, from $1.5bn at the end of 2025, including commercial paper that must be rolled over. Net debt is still modest against $4.6bn of trailing free cash flow, but interest costs and refinancing risk have risen.
• AI changing software demand (Competitive): If AI agents reduce the number of human users, seat-based pricing could come under pressure, and AI-native rivals or the hyperscalers could build competing agents. This concern drove the share price down to $81.24 in Apr 2026.
• Competition (Competitive): Salesforce, Microsoft, SAP, Workday and Atlassian compete in CRM, employee service and IT workflows, and ServiceNow's move into CRM and security brings it up against more established vendors.
• Slowing growth and margin dilution (Financial): Q3 2026 guidance implies 20.5% subscription growth including acquisitions, and Armis was guided to cut FY2026 operating margin by about 0.75 points and free cash flow margin by about 2 points.
• Macro, FX and deal timing (Macro): Conflict in the Middle East delayed large on-premise deals in Q1 2026, cutting subscription growth by about 0.75 points. Currency moves and the timing of US federal contracts also affect results.
• Cyber-security and data rules (Regulatory): The platform holds sensitive data for thousands of large organisations. A breach, an outage or new AI and data-protection rules such as the EU Data Act could bring liability and costs.

11. Recent Developments

• 01 Oct 2026 — Flow by ServiceNow launched. ServiceNow introduced a standalone AI service desk that runs in Slack and Microsoft Teams and can be bought without the wider platform. It also co-hosted the Fortune AIQ Summit at the New York Stock Exchange that day.
• 23 Sep 2026 — EmployeeWorks deployment. ServiceNow said INRY deployed its Moveworks-based EmployeeWorks assistant in six weeks.
• 22 Sep 2026 — Xapien partnership. ServiceNow partnered with Xapien to bring AI-driven due diligence into its workflows.
• 14 Sep 2026 — Shares rise 7.4%. The stock closed at $142.35 after prominent AI figures called for slower AI development; Invezz linked the move to easing fears of rapid AI disruption to software companies.
• 20 Aug 2026 — Tech Mahindra partnership expanded. The two companies expanded their partnership to deliver ServiceNow solutions to enterprise customers.
• 04 Aug 2026 — Autonomous Security launched. ServiceNow released six security products built on Armis, Veza and AI Control Tower.
• 03 Aug 2026 — New Chief Marketing Officer. Simon Mouyal, previously Armis's marketing chief, was named CMO.
• 22 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 beat and raise. Subscription revenue rose 24.5% to $3,877m and non-GAAP EPS was $0.90. FY2026 subscription revenue guidance went up to $15,760–15,780m. The shares rose about 7% after hours but reversed to close at $95.46 on 23 Jul.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• Expected 28 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results after the US market close. The date comes from market calendars and ServiceNow has not yet confirmed it; Q3 2025 results came on 29 Oct 2025. Guidance is subscription revenue of $3,975–3,980m and a 31% non-GAAP operating margin.
• Expected Dec 2026 — Further AI capabilities for Autonomous Security, and general availability of Flow in North America and EMEA during Q4 2026.
• 31 Dec 2026 — FY2026 year-end. Guidance is subscription revenue of $15,760–15,780m and a 35% free cash flow margin.
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and FY2026 results; FY2025 results came on 28 Jan 2026.
• Expected 04 May 2027 — Knowledge 2027 customer conference in Las Vegas, 04–06 May 2027, according to event listings.

Macro events are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and you can discuss ServiceNow on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) is a US-based provider of AI-powered decision-intelligence software and services, focused on national security, defence, digital identity and biometrics, and supply-chain (trade and travel) markets, selling primarily to US government and defence customers. For fiscal 2025 (year to 31 December 2025) the company reported revenue of $127.7m (down from $158.2m in FY2024), a GAAP operating loss of $213.9m, and a net loss of $293.9m, with free cash flow of negative $46.3m (revenue, operating loss and net loss per EDGAR XBRL / the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02; FCF per yfinance annual financials, pulled 2026-05-31). On 5 May 2026 BigBear.ai reported Q1 2026 revenue of $34.4m, gross margin of 34.0% and a net loss of $56.8m, with backlog up to $281.9m and full-year 2026 revenue guidance affirmed at $135m–$165m. The shares trade at $5.04, within a wide 52-week range of $3.01 to $9.39, with a market capitalisation of $2.4bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31). The next earnings report (Q2 2026) is expected in early August 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Name	BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
Ticker / Exchange	BBAI / New York Stock Exchange
Sector / Industry	Technology / IT Services (per yfinance)
Market cap	$2.41bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Enterprise value	$2.09bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
FY2025 revenue	$127.672m (per the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02)
FY2025 operating income (EDGAR XBRL)	-$213.897m GAAP operating loss (per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss; includes non-cash goodwill impairment; yfinance reports -$83.4m, excluding impairment)
FY2025 free cash flow	-$46.3m (operating cash flow -$42.0m less capex $4.4m, per yfinance annual financials)
Gross margin	25.8% (per yfinance, TTM)
Net margin	-226.7% (per yfinance, TTM)
Employees	approximately 579 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
CEO	Kevin McAleenan, Chief Executive Officer (since 15 January 2025; former Acting US Secretary of Homeland Security)
Headquarters	McLean, Virginia, USA
Website	https://bigbear.ai
Fiscal year-end	31 December
Next earnings	Early August 2026 — Q2 2026 (date not yet confirmed)
Dividend yield	None (no dividend)
52-week high	$9.39 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
52-week low	$3.01 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Short interest	124.9m shares short; short ratio 3.1 days (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Backlog is growing and skewing toward national security. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), backlog rose 14% from the prior quarter to $281.9m, driven by a sole-source prime classified award of $53m, with roughly $75m of total wins in the quarter across national security and trade and travel.

• Gross margin expanded sharply. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), gross margin rose to 34.0% from 21.3% a year earlier, a gain the company attributed to programme mix and cost actions.

• The balance sheet has been substantially strengthened. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), BigBear.ai held approximately $431.5m of total available cash and investments as at 31 March 2026 and settled the remaining $124.6m of its 2029 convertible notes (primarily via debt-to-equity conversion in January 2026), reducing interest expense.

• Exposure to a growing AI / national-security spending theme. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02), the company targets US defence, intelligence, homeland-security and digital-identity markets, areas of rising government AI investment, led by a CEO with senior national-security experience.

• Management affirmed full-year guidance. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), BigBear.ai affirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m, implying a return to growth versus FY2025's $127.7m.

Bear Case

• Revenue fell in FY2025. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), revenue declined approximately 19% to $127.7m (FY2024: $158.2m), an unusual outcome for a company valued as a high-growth AI play.

• Losses are large and persistent. Per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), the FY2025 GAAP operating loss was $213.9m and the net loss was $293.9m; the company has never reported an annual profit.

• Heavy shareholder dilution. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), shares outstanding rose to roughly 437m at year-end from about 252m a year earlier, and the count has continued to climb as debt is converted to equity and stock is issued.

• Extreme valuation relative to fundamentals. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), the shares trade at approximately 19x trailing sales and roughly 16x enterprise value to revenue, despite declining revenue and ongoing losses.

• Very high short interest and volatility. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), about 124.9m shares are sold short and the stock's beta is 3.05, indicating a highly speculative, volatile security.

3. What Does BigBear.ai Actually Do?

BigBear.ai sells AI-powered "decision intelligence" — software and services that ingest data and produce predictions, analytics and automation for mission-critical government and commercial operations (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02). The company operates as a single reportable segment, so a divisional revenue breakdown is not disclosed; instead it describes its work across several markets.

In national security and defence, BigBear.ai provides analytics, modelling and decision-support tools for the US Department of Defense, intelligence community and allied agencies. In digital identity and biometrics — anchored by the 2024 acquisition of Pangiam — it provides facial-recognition and identity solutions for airports, border control and travel (for example, US Customs and aviation security applications). In supply chain and logistics (trade and travel), it offers optimisation and anomaly-detection tools. Revenue is overwhelmingly tied to US government and prime-contractor customers, which makes contract awards and federal budget timing the key revenue drivers.

A geographic revenue breakdown beyond the company's predominantly US government base is not disclosed in this report's source data, and a segment donut chart is not applicable given the single reportable segment.

4. The Business Model

BigBear.ai earns revenue primarily through government and defence contracts — a mix of cost-reimbursable, time-and-materials and fixed-price arrangements for software, analytics and professional services (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02). Revenue visibility comes from backlog, which stood at $281.9m at the end of Q1 2026 (per the Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026); contract funding, re-competes and the federal budget cycle therefore drive the top line.

The intended moat rests on security clearances, accredited and embedded software within sensitive government programmes, domain expertise in identity and national security, and proprietary AI models. However, unit economics remain unproven at the company level: gross margin was 25.8% on a trailing basis (34.0% in Q1 2026 per the earnings release, 5 May 2026), but the business is loss-making at the operating and net level and has consumed cash (FY2025 free cash flow of -$46.3m, per yfinance). The company has funded itself through repeated equity and convertible-debt issuance, and has grown partly through acquisitions (such as Pangiam). Capital is not returned to shareholders; there is no dividend or buyback.

5. Financial Health

Five-year trend (fiscal years to 31 December; $m unless stated). Operating loss is the GAAP figure per EDGAR XBRL (it includes non-cash goodwill impairment in FY2022, FY2024 and FY2025); revenue, net loss and diluted EPS per EDGAR / the 10-K; FCF per yfinance.

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	not disclosed	155.0	155.2	158.2	127.7
Operating loss (GAAP, EDGAR)	not disclosed	-110.5	-39.0	-133.4	-213.9
Net loss	not disclosed	-111.4	-70.7	-295.5	-293.9
Diluted EPS ($)	not disclosed	-0.87	-0.47	-1.27	-0.82
Free cash flow	not disclosed	-49.7	-22.1	-49.2	-46.3

Source: revenue/operating loss/net loss/diluted EPS per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02); FCF per yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31).

Balance sheet (fiscal year-ends; $m):

Metric	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & equivalents	12.6	32.6	50.1	87.1
Total debt	200.3	162.5	146.4	114.8
Total stockholders' equity	-37.9	-30.0	-3.7	611.9
Shares outstanding (period-end, m)	117.1	157.3	251.6	437.0

Source: yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31). Equity turned positive in FY2025 chiefly through large equity issuance and conversion of debt to stock; the share count more than tripled from FY2022 to FY2025.

Quarterly trend (last five quarters; GAAP; $m except EPS):

Quarter (period end)	Revenue	Operating loss	Net income/(loss)	Diluted EPS ($)
Q1 2025 (31 Mar 2025)	34.8	-21.2	-62.0	-0.25
Q2 2025 (30 Jun 2025)	32.5	-90.3	-228.6	-0.71
Q3 2025 (30 Sep 2025)	33.1	-21.9	2.5	-0.03
Q4 2025 (31 Dec 2025)	27.3*	-80.5*	-5.8*	not meaningful
Q1 2026 (31 Mar 2026)	34.4	-24.3	-56.8	-0.12

Source: 10-Q periods per EDGAR XBRL; Q1 2026 also per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026). *Q4 2025 figures are derived as the FY2025 full year less the first nine months and are approximate. The large swings — a $228.6m net loss in Q2 2025 and a small net profit in Q3 2025 — are driven mainly by non-cash changes in the fair value of warrant and derivative liabilities and by goodwill impairment, which is why net losses far exceed the operating cash burn (FY2025 operating cash flow of -$42.0m, per yfinance).

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Share price	$5.04
Previous close	$4.94
Day range	$4.71 – $5.16
52-week high / low	$9.39 / $3.01
Market cap	$2.41bn
Enterprise value	$2.09bn
Shares outstanding	478.9m
Float	475.3m
Average daily volume (10d)	53.0m shares
Volume (date)	not disclosed in this report's source data
Beta	3.05
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	not applicable (loss-making)
Forward P/E	-25.2x (negative)
P/S (TTM)	18.95x
P/B	3.04x
EV/Revenue	16.40x
EV/EBITDA	not disclosed in this report's source data
P/FCF	not applicable (negative FCF)
Gross margin (TTM)	25.8%
Operating margin (TTM, GAAP)	-66.9%
Net margin (TTM)	-226.7%
ROE	-58.4%
ROA	not disclosed in this report's source data
Debt-to-equity	3.05%
Current ratio	6.08x
Dividend yield	None
Short interest	124.9m shares (short ratio 3.1 days)
Put/call ratio	not disclosed in this report's source data

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

BigBear.ai's forward strategy centres on expanding its position in US national security and digital identity. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), recent wins include a $53m sole-source prime classified award and approximately $75m of total Q1 bookings across national security and trade and travel, lifting backlog to $281.9m. The Pangiam acquisition (completed 2024) anchors a biometrics and facial-recognition portfolio aimed at airports, border control and travel security (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02).

On capital structure, the company settled the remaining $124.6m of its 2029 convertible notes, primarily through debt-to-equity conversion in January 2026, and reported approximately $431.5m of available cash and investments at 31 March 2026 (per the Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026), giving it runway to invest despite ongoing losses. Management affirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m (per the same release). The company has indicated it intends to pursue further AI product development and potential acquisitions; no specific internal long-range financial forecasts beyond the FY2026 guidance are included in this report's source data, and no third-party analyst forecasts are used.

8. Competitive Landscape

BigBear.ai competes with both pure-play AI software vendors and large government IT and analytics contractors. Peer market data (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31):

Company	Ticker	Market cap	Revenue (TTM)	Gross margin	P/S
BigBear.ai	BBAI	$2.41bn	$0.13bn	25.8%	18.95x
Palantir Technologies	PLTR	$375.3bn	$5.22bn	84.1%	71.83x
C3.ai	AI	$1.56bn	$0.31bn	43.5%	5.09x
SoundHound AI	SOUN	$3.89bn	$0.18bn	40.6%	21.17x
CACI International	CACI	$11.34bn	$9.16bn	32.6%	1.24x
Leidos Holdings	LDOS	$16.08bn	$17.33bn	17.9%	0.93x

All figures are in US dollars. BigBear.ai is among the smallest companies in this group by revenue, competing for government AI and analytics work against far larger primes (CACI, Leidos) and against higher-profile AI software names (Palantir, C3.ai, SoundHound). Its price-to-sales multiple (18.95x) is well above the government-IT primes and below the most richly valued AI peers, while its gross margin sits below most of the software-oriented peers. No view is offered here on relative winners or losers.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Kevin McAleenan has served as Chief Executive Officer and a director since 15 January 2025; he is a former Acting US Secretary of Homeland Security and founded Pangiam, which BigBear.ai acquired in 2024 (per company announcements and the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02). Sean Ricker serves as Chief Financial Officer, having been appointed interim CFO in June 2025 after previously serving as Chief Accounting Officer (per company announcements). Fuller executive tenures and compensation are set out in the company's proxy statement and are not reproduced in this report's source data.

Ownership is notable for a low insider stake and a large retail component. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), institutions hold approximately 42.3% and insiders approximately 0.7%. The largest reported institutional holders (per yfinance, as at 31 March 2026):

Holder	Stake	Shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.51%	36.0m
Vanguard (Capital Mgmt)	4.02%	19.3m
Geode Capital Management	2.21%	10.6m
State Street Corporation	2.19%	10.5m
UBS Group AG	2.12%	10.2m

Recent specific insider transactions are not disclosed in this report's source data.

10. Risks and Challenges

• History of losses and going-concern sensitivity (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has incurred significant and continuing net losses and negative cash flows and may need additional capital, the availability of which is not assured.
• Customer concentration in the US government (Concentration): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), a large majority of revenue comes from US government and prime-contractor customers, so the loss or delay of key contracts would materially affect results.
• Dependence on federal budgets and contract funding (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), revenue depends on government appropriations, contract awards, re-competes and the timing of funding, all of which can shift with political and budget cycles, including shutdowns.
• Shareholder dilution and capital structure (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has financed itself through substantial equity and convertible-debt issuance, materially increasing the share count and diluting existing holders.
• Competition (Competitive): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), BigBear.ai competes with larger, better-resourced government contractors and AI software vendors that may offer broader capabilities or lower prices.
• Acquisition integration (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has grown through acquisitions (including Pangiam) that carry integration, retention and impairment risk, as evidenced by goodwill impairment charges.
• Cybersecurity and handling of sensitive data (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company processes sensitive government and biometric data, making security breaches a material operational, legal and reputational risk.
• Reliance on key personnel and security clearances (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), performance depends on attracting and retaining cleared technical and leadership talent in a competitive market.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 5 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results, backlog increase and guidance affirmed: BigBear.ai reported first-quarter revenue of $34.4m, gross margin of 34.0% (up from 21.3% a year earlier), a net loss of $56.8m and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.9m; backlog rose 14% from the prior quarter to $281.9m (including a $53m sole-source classified award), available cash and investments stood at approximately $431.5m, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m was affirmed. Source: BigBear.ai Q1 2026 earnings release / Form 8-K.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• Early August 2026: Q2 2026 earnings (quarter to 30 June 2026). Date not yet confirmed in this report's source data; Q1 2026 results were released on 5 May 2026.
• Mid-2026: Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Date not disclosed in this report's source data.

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Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.

Last Updated: 26 August 2026

Salesforce sells customer relationship management software by subscription, and in FY2026 that subscription and support line was 94.9% of a $41.5bn revenue base. The company has spent the last two years rebuilding itself around Agentforce, its AI agent platform, renaming almost every product to carry the Agentforce prefix and moving from purely per-seat pricing towards consumption-based Flex Credits. In March 2026 it also did something it had never done before: it borrowed $25bn to fund a single accelerated share repurchase, retiring roughly 104 million shares in under three months. This report is a factual review of Salesforce's reported figures, drawn from its SEC filings and earnings releases. It contains no analyst ratings, price targets or forecasts. Note the timing carefully: the most recent reported quarter is Q1 FY2027, ended 30 April 2026 and released 27 May 2026. Salesforce confirmed on 5 August 2026 that Q2 FY2027 results are due after the market close on 26 August 2026, so the figures below will be superseded within hours of publication.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Legal name	Salesforce, Inc. (Delaware)
Headquarters	Salesforce Tower, 415 Mission Street, 3rd Floor, San Francisco, California 94105, USA
Founded	1999
Listing	NYSE, ticker CRM. Constituent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 31 August 2020.
Sector / industry	Technology — application software; customer relationship management and AI agent platforms
Fiscal year end	31 January. FY2026 ended 31 January 2026; FY2027 ends 31 January 2027.
CEO / Leadership	Marc Benioff, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, confirmed in post as at the Q1 FY2027 release of 27 May 2026. Robin Washington, President and Chief Financial and Operating Officer since March 2025. Miguel Milano promoted to Chief Operating Officer on 5 August 2026. Rohan Kumar, Chief Platform and Engineering Officer. Alexa Vignone, Chief Revenue Officer. Sabastian Niles, President and Chief Legal Officer. Parker Harris, Co-Founder and CTO of Slack.
Employees	83,334 as at 31 January 2026 per the FY2026 Form 10-K, up 9% from 76,453 a year earlier. Three separate rounds of role reductions have been reported during calendar 2026.
Revenue (FY2026, ended 31 Jan 2026)	$41,525m, up 9.6% year on year
Net income (FY2026, GAAP)	$7,457m
Diluted GAAP EPS (FY2026)	$7.80. Non-GAAP diluted EPS as reported by the company was $12.52.
Market capitalisation	Approximately $168.5bn (819,000,000 shares outstanding per the Q1 FY2027 10-Q cover page dated 21 May 2026, at a share price of $205.69 on 26 August 2026). Any figure computed from a share count above 900m predates the March 2026 buyback and is stale.
Dividend	$0.44 per quarter, an annualised rate of $1.76, raised 5.8% with the Q4 FY2026 results on 25 February 2026. The dividend was initiated in FY2025.
Remaining performance obligation	$67.9bn total RPO at 30 April 2026, up 11% year on year, of which current RPO was $33.6bn, up 14%

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Agentforce is scaling faster than any prior Salesforce product: Agentforce annual recurring revenue reached $1.2bn at 30 April 2026, up 205% year on year, and combined Agentforce plus Data 360 ARR was roughly $3.4bn, up over 200%. Agentic Work Units delivered stood at 3.8 billion, up 111% quarter on quarter, and 28.6 trillion tokens had been processed, up 152% quarter on quarter. More than half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings came from existing customers.
• Cash generation is enormous and the multiple has compressed hard: FY2026 operating cash flow was $14,996m and free cash flow $14,402m, up 16%, on capital expenditure of just 1.4% of revenue. Against a market capitalisation of roughly $168.5bn that is a price-to-free-cash-flow multiple in the low teens, for a business that grew revenue 9.6% and carries $67.9bn of contracted backlog.
• The data layer is growing at more than three times the rate of the apps: under the new two-category disclosure, Data 360, Headless Platform and Other grew 23% in constant currency in Q1 FY2027 against 7% for Agentforce Apps. Data 360 ingested 52 trillion records in the quarter, up 136% year on year, of which 35 trillion came through Zero Copy, up 277%. Informatica adds $1.1bn of cloud ARR to that layer.
• Two directors bought with their own money and the CEO cancelled his selling plan: on 18 and 19 March 2026, directors David Blair Kirk and Laura Alber each purchased roughly $500,000 of stock on the open market at about $194.60. On 31 March 2026 Marc Benioff terminated the Rule 10b5-1 arrangement he had entered in October 2025, which would have sold up to 351,607 shares between April 2026 and February 2027. Not one of the 69 Form 4s filed in 2026 contains a 10b5-1 reference.

Bear Case

• The seat-based core has stalled at 7% constant-currency growth: the Agentforce Apps bucket — Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce and Slack, the seat-licensed heart of the company — grew just 7% in constant currency in Q1 FY2027, and 6% in Q4 FY2026. Headline subscription growth of 12% constant currency is being carried by the other bucket, which contains acquired Informatica revenue. Management's promise of organic reacceleration in the second half of FY2027 is unproven.
• The balance sheet was levered to shrink the share count, not to grow the business: noncurrent debt went from $10,439m to $39,280m in a single quarter to fund the $25bn accelerated repurchase. Quarterly interest expense rose from $68m to $317m. Total equity fell from $59,142m to $34,235m. Management cut FY2027 operating and free cash flow growth guidance from roughly 9%–10% to roughly 4%–5%, explicitly citing the debt issuance.
• Salesforce is itself the proof case for the AI-kills-seats thesis: its own support organisation has shrunk from about 9,000 people to about 5,000 as Agentforce came to handle roughly half of support interactions. If that is what agentic AI does inside Salesforce, customers can reasonably be expected to do the same to their own Service Cloud seat counts. The shares hit a multi-year low of $146.32 in June 2026 on exactly this concern.
• Reported earnings quality is doing a lot of work: Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.88 sits 60% above the GAAP $2.42, bridged mainly by stock-based compensation of $1.00 per share and purchased-intangible amortisation of $0.64. Separately, $0.51 of that $3.88, about 13%, was a mark-to-market gain on the strategic investment portfolio — a line the company excludes from its own guidance because it cannot forecast it.
• Goodwill is 1.7 times the entire book value: goodwill stood at $59,291m against total stockholders equity of $34,235m at 30 April 2026, after the buyback halved the equity base. Salesforce has closed at least seven acquisitions in twelve months on top of the $8bn Informatica deal, spending $1,452m on business combinations in Q1 FY2027 alone. Any material impairment would be existential to reported equity.

3. Business Segments

Salesforce restructured its revenue disclosure twice in eighteen months. In Q3 FY2026 the five service offerings were renamed to reference Agentforce with no reallocation of revenue between them. Then in Q1 FY2027 the disclosure was collapsed into just two primary categories, to reflect what the company calls the evolution of its product architecture towards the Agentic Enterprise. Both bases are shown below, because the older five-category split is the only one with a full year of data behind it.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Agentforce Apps (current basis, Q1 FY2027)	62.1% ($6,910m of Q1 FY2027 revenue)	The seat-licensed core: Agentforce Sales, Agentforce Service, Agentforce Marketing, Agentforce Commerce, Agentforce Apps Flex Credits and Slack. Grew 8.9% as reported and 7% in constant currency.
Data 360, Headless Platform and Other (current basis, Q1 FY2027)	33.1% ($3,683m of Q1 FY2027 revenue)	The data and platform layer: Data 360, Data 360 and Platform Flex Credits, Headless Platform, Informatica, Agentforce MuleSoft, Agentforce Tableau and other. Grew 24.8% as reported and 23% in constant currency.
Professional services and other (current basis, Q1 FY2027)	4.9% ($540m of Q1 FY2027 revenue)	Implementation, consulting and training. Grew 1.5% year on year and continues to shrink as a share of the total.
Agentforce Service (FY2026 five-category basis)	23.6% ($9,818m of FY2026 revenue)	Case management, field service and customer support, up from $9,054m in FY2025. The largest single product line.
Agentforce Sales (FY2026 five-category basis)	21.7% ($9,028m of FY2026 revenue)	Core sales force automation, pipeline and CPQ, up from $8,322m in FY2025.
Agentforce 360 Platform, Slack and Other (FY2026 five-category basis)	21.4% ($8,882m of FY2026 revenue)	The application platform plus Slack, up from $7,247m in FY2025. Includes $388m of Informatica subscription revenue from the 18 November 2025 close.
Agentforce Integration and Agentforce Analytics (FY2026 five-category basis)	15.0% ($6,232m of FY2026 revenue)	MuleSoft integration and Tableau analytics, up from $5,775m in FY2025. Both moved into the data-layer bucket from Q1 FY2027.
Agentforce Marketing and Agentforce Commerce (FY2026 five-category basis)	13.1% ($5,428m of FY2026 revenue)	Marketing automation and commerce storefronts, up from $5,281m in FY2025 — the slowest-growing of the five at about 2.8%.

By geography, FY2026 revenue split $27,193m Americas (65.5%), $10,017m Europe (24.1%) and $4,315m Asia Pacific (10.4%). Constant-currency growth in Q1 FY2027 was 11% in the Americas and 12% in both Europe and Asia Pacific.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Salesforce sells multi-year subscriptions, typically 12 to 36 months, invoiced in advance. Subscription and support was 94.9% of FY2026 revenue and 95.1% in Q1 FY2027. Because customers pay up front, the balance sheet carries large unearned revenue — $20,363m at 30 April 2026, down seasonally from $24,317m at the 31 January year end when the bulk of renewals land. The forward-looking measure is remaining performance obligation: $67.9bn total and $33.6bn current at 30 April 2026. The seasonal drop from the $72.4bn January peak is normal, not deterioration.

The pricing model is changing under the covers. Three models now coexist. Per-conversation pricing launched at $2 per conversation in 2024. Flex Credits, introduced in May 2025, sell at $500 per 100,000 credits, with a standard agent action consuming 20 credits, or $0.10, and a voice action 30 credits, or $0.15. And traditional per-user pricing still runs from $25 to $350 per user per month across the Sales tiers, with Agentforce editions from about $125 per user per month. That Flex Credits now appear as named revenue components in the disaggregation footnote tells you consumption revenue has become large enough to disclose separately — and it is the mechanism by which Salesforce hopes to decouple revenue growth from headcount growth at its customers.

Switching costs and the ecosystem. The moat is the accumulated configuration: custom objects, workflows, integrations and years of customer data sitting inside a system of record that finance, sales and service teams all touch. AppExchange, described in the 10-K as the enterprise cloud marketplace, hosts third-party applications built on the Agentforce 360 Platform and is supported by a large consulting-partner network. Deferred commissions of $4,985m at 30 April 2026 give a sense of the scale of the sales motion required to win and keep those accounts. Salesforce does not publish a numeric net revenue retention or attrition rate; the 10-K notes only that larger, multi-product customers have lower attrition than the company average, without giving a figure.

New metrics the company has introduced. Two disclosures appeared with the agentic pivot. Net New Annual Order Value, or NNAOV, is defined as the net change in annual order value of subscription agreements — annualised contract value from new and existing customers less reductions from cancellations, non-renewals and downgrades. Management said it accelerated in the second half of FY2026 but publishes no absolute figure. Agentic Work Units count discrete tasks executed by AI agents in production across Agentforce and Slack, and reached 3.8 billion delivered to date at Q1 FY2027. Investors should note that neither metric is auditable against a financial statement line.

Track the price on our Live Charts page and check upcoming macro releases on the Economic Calendar.

5. Financial Health

All figures are taken from Salesforce's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and its quarterly earnings press releases. Salesforce's fiscal year ends 31 January, so FY2026 covers February 2025 to January 2026. Year-on-year percentages are derived; non-GAAP EPS figures are as reported by the company.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022 (ended 31 Jan 2022)	$26,492m	+24.7%	$1.48	$4.78	Nil	$10,592m
FY2023 (ended 31 Jan 2023)	$31,352m	+18.3%	$0.21	$5.24	Nil	$9,419m
FY2024 (ended 31 Jan 2024)	$34,857m	+11.2%	$4.20	$8.22	Nil	$8,427m
FY2025 (ended 31 Jan 2025)	$37,895m	+8.7%	$6.36	$10.20	$1.60	$8,433m
FY2026 (ended 31 Jan 2026)	$41,525m	+9.6%	$7.80	$12.52	$1.664	$10,439m

The Adjusted EPS column is Salesforce's own reported non-GAAP diluted EPS, which excludes stock-based compensation, amortisation of purchased intangibles, and gains or losses on strategic investments. The long-term debt column is noncurrent debt only. At 31 January 2026 there was also $4,000m of current debt — the 364-day Informatica credit agreement maturing November 2026 at 4.42% floating — so total debt at that date was $14,439m. Current debt was nil at each of the four preceding year ends. The five-year revenue compound annual growth rate from FY2022 to FY2026 is 11.9%.

The dividend was initiated in FY2025 at $0.40 per quarter, raised to $0.416 for FY2026, and raised again by 5.8% to $0.44 per quarter announced on 25 February 2026. The current annualised rate is $1.76.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 FY2027 (ended 30 Apr 2026)	$11,133m	$3.88	$2.42
Q4 FY2026 (ended 31 Jan 2026)	$11,201m	$3.81	$2.07
Q3 FY2026 (ended 31 Oct 2025)	$10,259m	$3.25	$2.19
Q2 FY2026 (ended 31 Jul 2025)	$10,236m	$2.91	$1.96
Q1 FY2026 (ended 30 Apr 2025)	$9,829m	$2.58	$1.59
FY2026 total (ended 31 Jan 2026)	$41,525m	$12.52	$7.80

The four FY2026 quarterly non-GAAP EPS figures sum to $12.55 against the $12.52 reported for the full year, a share-count and rounding difference; the reported full-year figure is used above. Q1 FY2027 revenue growth of 13.3% includes $444m of Informatica revenue, which closed on 18 November 2025 and so had no comparator in the prior-year quarter.

Margins improved in Q1 FY2027: GAAP operating margin of 21.1% against 19.8%, and non-GAAP operating margin of 34.8% against 32.3%. Cash generation in FY2026 was $14,996m of operating cash flow against $594m of capital expenditure, giving $14,402m of free cash flow, up 16%. Depreciation and amortisation was $3,631m and stock-based compensation $3,522m, or 8.5% of revenue, guided at 9.0% for FY2027.

For FY2027 the company guides revenue of $45.9bn to $46.2bn, up about 11%, including roughly three percentage points from Informatica; GAAP diluted EPS of $7.93 to $7.99 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $14.06 to $14.12; a GAAP operating margin of 20.6% and non-GAAP operating margin of 34.3%; and operating and free cash flow growth of roughly 4% to 5%, cut from roughly 9% to 10% previously to reflect the interest cost of the $25bn debt issuance.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$168.5bn (819,000,000 shares outstanding per the Q1 FY2027 10-Q cover page dated 21 May 2026, at $205.69). The share count fell from 923m in February 2026 to 819m in May 2026 on the accelerated repurchase.
Enterprise value	~$195.9bn (market cap $168.5bn plus noncurrent debt $39.28bn less cash and marketable securities $11.84bn, per the 30 April 2026 balance sheet). A widely quoted alternative of about $199.2bn uses a $42.5bn total-debt figure that also includes lease and financing obligations.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~23.8x ($205.69 divided by trailing twelve-month diluted GAAP EPS of $8.63, derived as FY2026 $7.80 less Q1 FY2026 $1.59 plus Q1 FY2027 $2.42). On the company's own reported FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $12.52 the equivalent multiple is about 16.4x.
P/E (forward)	~14.6x on the company's FY2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance midpoint of $14.09, or ~25.8x on the FY2027 GAAP guidance midpoint of $7.96. Both are derived from Salesforce's own guidance issued 27 May 2026, not from third-party estimates.
P/S (TTM)	~3.93x (market cap $168.5bn divided by trailing twelve-month revenue of $42.83bn, derived as FY2026 $41,525m less Q1 FY2026 $9,829m plus Q1 FY2027 $11,133m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~15.7x (enterprise value $195.9bn divided by trailing twelve-month EBITDA of $12.51bn; EBITDA = trailing operating income of $8,736m plus depreciation and amortisation of $3,773m, using the wider cash-flow-statement D&A figure of $3,631m for FY2026 rather than the narrower $1,200m property-and-equipment measure)
P/FCF	~11.5x (market cap $168.5bn divided by trailing free cash flow of $14.66bn; free cash flow = trailing operating cash flow $15,221m less capital expenditure $560m per the cash flow statement). On reported FY2026 free cash flow of $14,402m the multiple is ~11.7x.
Price/book	~4.9x (market cap $168.5bn divided by total stockholders equity of $34,235m at 30 April 2026). The equity base was nearly halved by the buyback, so this is inflated relative to Salesforce's own history and is not very meaningful.
52-week high	$269.11
52-week low	$146.32 (set in June 2026)
Short interest (% of float)	3.71% (29,406,370 shares short against a float of 793,594,620, settlement date 31 July 2026). Equivalent to 3.59% of shares outstanding. Some data providers still publish a figure above 9% based on an April 2026 settlement that predates the buyback; that figure is stale.
Days to cover	2.3 (short ratio, settlement date 31 July 2026)
Dividend yield	~0.86% ($1.76 annualised divided by $205.69)
Net debt	~$27.4bn (noncurrent debt $39.28bn less cash and marketable securities $11.84bn at 30 April 2026). Salesforce was in a net cash position as recently as 31 January 2026.

7. What Are They Building

Agentforce and the agentic platform. Agentforce 360 is now the umbrella platform brand, and the FY2026 10-K describes the company's "artificial intelligence powered Agentforce 360 Platform". Agentforce ARR reached $1.2bn at 30 April 2026, up 205% year on year, from $800m and 169% growth three months earlier. More than 29,000 Agentforce deals had closed since launch as at Q4 FY2026, up 50% quarter on quarter. Bookings from the premium Agentforce One Edition and Agentforce for Apps SKUs, anchored in Sales and Service, grew nearly 60% year on year.

Data 360, the layer underneath. Formerly Data Cloud, this is the unified data store that agents reason over. It ingested 112 trillion records in FY2026, up 114%, of which 53 trillion came via Zero Copy, up 310%, and processed 18TB of unstructured data. In Q1 FY2027 alone it took in 52 trillion records, up 136%, with 35 trillion via Zero Copy. A Data 360 MCP server is launching to expose roughly 200 Data 360 APIs via open standards.

Headless 360 — the major 2026 architectural bet. Announced at TrailblazerDX on 15 April 2026 and significantly expanded on 19 August 2026, Headless 360 exposes Data 360, Customer 360, Agentforce and Slack through APIs and more than 60 MCP tools rather than through the browser. Salesforce's own framing is blunt: "No Browser Required. The entire platform is now an API." This matters commercially as well as technically, because Headless Platform is now a named revenue component inside the faster-growing data bucket — and because an API-first platform is one whose revenue can grow without a proportional increase in the number of humans logging in.

Informatica and the acquisition run. Informatica was announced on 27 May 2025 and completed on 18 November 2025 at an equity value of roughly $8bn net of Salesforce's pre-existing stake, funded by drawing the full $4bn 364-day and full $2bn three-year credit agreements. It contributed $388m of subscription revenue in FY2026 and $444m of total revenue in Q1 FY2027, and carries $1.1bn of cloud ARR. Around it sit at least seven agentic tuck-ins in twelve months: Apromore (process mining, November 2025), Regrello (process automation, October 2025), Doti (enterprise search, December 2025), Qualified (pipeline generation, April 2026), Convergence.ai (agents that navigate dynamic web UIs, May 2026) and Bluebirds (prospecting intelligence, July 2026), with Waii and Spindle AI announced but with completion dates not disclosed. Deal values for most were not published; Q1 FY2027 shows $1,452m of business combinations net of cash acquired.

Model partnerships. The Anthropic partnership was expanded on 14 October 2025, making Anthropic the first large language model provider fully integrated within Salesforce's trust boundary, with Claude traffic contained inside Salesforce's virtual private cloud via Amazon Bedrock, and positioned as a preferred model for financial services, healthcare, cybersecurity and life sciences. In February 2026 the two companies brought business context and AI actions into Claude through Slack and Agentforce 360. The Google Cloud partnership was expanded on 16 October 2025 and again on 22 April 2026, with Gemini 3.5 Flash running natively in the Atlas Reasoning Engine from June 2026. An OpenAI relationship has also been expanded, though no specific commercial terms have been published.

Slack as the interface. The reimagined Slackbot reached general availability on 13 January 2026 as a personal AI agent for work, positioned as the front door to the agentic enterprise. Custom AI agents on Slack have grown 300% since January 2026, and the Slack MCP server passed one million active users within six weeks of launch.

8. Peers and Competitors

One caution before reading the table: ServiceNow executed a 5-for-1 stock split effective 18 December 2025, so its quoted share price is not comparable to pre-split history.

Peer	Market cap (August 2026)	Key 2025/2026 metric
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)	$3,651bn	FY2026, ended 30 June 2026, revenue $331.8bn, up 18%, with operating income $155.2bn, up 21%. Azure passed $100bn of annual revenue for the first time, growing 41% for the year and 43% in Q4. Dynamics 365 competes directly with Salesforce and is bundled with Copilot into seats customers already own. (Source: Microsoft FY2026 Q4 results release, 29 Jul 2026.)
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL)	$417.0bn	FY2026, ended 31 May 2026, revenue $67.4bn. Remaining performance obligation of $638bn, up 363% year on year; Q4 total cloud revenue $9.9bn, up 47%, with OCI up 93% to $5.8bn; FY2026 capital expenditure $55.7bn. (Source: Oracle Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 10 Jun 2026.)
SAP (NYSE: SAP, ADR)	$250.4bn	Q2 2026 current cloud backlog of EUR 22.9bn, up 27% year on year and 26% in constant currency; cloud revenue EUR 6.3bn, up 24% constant currency; Cloud ERP Suite EUR 5.5bn, up 27%. Operating profit outlook was cut on acquisition dilution. (Source: SAP Q2 2026 statement.)
ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW)	$131.3bn	Q2 2026 subscription revenue $3,877m, up 24.5% year on year and 23% in constant currency, on total revenue of $3,987m. Current RPO up 21.5% in constant currency. ServiceNow AI passed $1bn of annual contract value. Growing at roughly twice Salesforce's rate on about a third of the revenue base. (Source: ServiceNow Q2 2026 8-K.)
Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE)	$108.9bn	FY2025, ended 28 November 2025, revenue $23.77bn with net income $7.13bn. Q3 FY2026 revenue guidance $6.67bn–$6.72bn, with results due 10 September 2026. Overlaps with Salesforce in marketing and commerce. (Source: Adobe SEC filings and guidance.)
Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY)	$48.0bn	FY2026, ended 31 January 2026, revenue $9.55bn, up about 13% from $8.45bn, with net income $0.69bn. Shares the same enterprise buyer and the same fiscal calendar as Salesforce. (Source: Workday FY2026 filings.)
HubSpot (NYSE: HUBS)	$12.2bn	FY2025 revenue $3.13bn, up about 19% from $2.63bn in FY2024, with net income of roughly $0.05bn — barely GAAP-profitable. The principal competitor at the small and mid-market end that Salesforce has been pushing into. (Source: HubSpot FY2025 filings.)

The relative positioning is itself part of the story. At roughly $168bn Salesforce is now smaller than both Oracle and SAP, and only about 28% larger than ServiceNow — a company with roughly a third of its revenue but more than twice its subscription growth rate. Compare notes with other members on the ChartsView Forum.

9. Insider Activity

Chair and Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff made no discretionary open-market sales of Salesforce stock in calendar 2026. His only non-derivative transactions were an equity award on 22 March 2026 and a mandatory tax withholding on vesting on 22 April 2026. More notably, on 31 March 2026 he terminated the Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement entered on 10 October 2025, which had provided for the sale of up to 351,607 shares between 1 April 2026 and 26 February 2027. Across all 69 Form 4 filings made under Salesforce's CIK in 2026, none carries a 10b5-1 notation, so there were no plan-based sales at all.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Miguel Milano, President and COO	22 Aug 2026	RSU vesting and tax withholding	1,662 acquired, 678 withheld	$209.17	~$141,800 withheld	Routine vesting, no 10b5-1
Sabastian Niles, President and CLO	22 Aug 2026	RSU vesting and tax withholding	1,662 acquired, 920 withheld	$209.17	~$192,400 withheld	Routine vesting, no 10b5-1
Robin Washington, President and COFO	22 Jun 2026	RSU vesting and tax withholding	1,831 acquired, 908 withheld	$150.12	~$136,300 withheld	Routine vesting, no 10b5-1
Marc Benioff, Chair and CEO	22 Apr 2026	Tax withholding on vesting	22,560 withheld	$189.80	~$4,282,100	Mandatory withholding, not a discretionary sale
Marc Benioff, Chair and CEO	31 Mar 2026	Termination of Rule 10b5-1 plan	Up to 351,607 shares cancelled	Not applicable	No transaction	Plan adopted 10 Oct 2025, terminated before any sales
Marc Benioff, Chair and CEO	22 Mar 2026	Equity award	45,474 acquired	$0.00 grant	Not a purchase	Award, no 10b5-1
Laura Alber, Director	19 Mar 2026	Open-market purchase	2,571	$194.54 and $194.59	~$500,300	Discretionary purchase, no 10b5-1
David Blair Kirk, Director	18 Mar 2026	Open-market purchase	2,570	$194.62	~$500,200	Discretionary purchase, no 10b5-1
Neelie Kroes, Director	14 Jan 2026	Sale	3,893	$238.70	~$929,300	No 10b5-1 notation in the filing
Sundeep G. Reddy, EVP and Chief Accounting Officer	22 Jan 2026	RSU vesting and tax withholding	487 acquired, 243 withheld	$228.09	~$55,400 withheld	Routine vesting, no 10b5-1

Two directors each committed roughly $500,000 of their own money within 24 hours of each other in mid-March 2026 at about $194.60, in the same week the company launched its $25bn accelerated repurchase. Those are the only open-market purchase codes in the entire 2026 set. The single discretionary sale was director Neelie Kroes's disposal of 3,893 shares at $238.70 in January, near the top of the range. The withholding prices across the year also form a useful independent price series: $228.09 in January, $195.38 in March, $189.80 in April, $180.07 in May, $150.12 in June, $163.00 in July and $209.17 in August.

10. Key Risks

• The seat-based core has stalled: Agentforce Apps — Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce and Slack — grew just 7% in constant currency in Q1 FY2027 and 6% in Q4 FY2026. Total subscription growth of 12% constant currency depends on the data bucket at 23%, which itself contains acquired Informatica revenue. Strip out acquisitions and the organic seat business is growing in the mid single digits. Management's promise of organic reacceleration in the second half of FY2027 is the whole case, and it is untested.
• AI disruption of seat-based software: the shares hit a multi-year low of $146.32 in June 2026 as part of a sector-wide de-rating on the thesis that AI agents reduce the number of software seats enterprises need. Salesforce is its own proof case: its support organisation has shrunk from about 9,000 people to about 5,000 as Agentforce came to handle roughly half of support interactions. Management's public response has been to call the bears "dead wrong", which is a conviction statement rather than evidence.
• Leverage taken on to buy back stock, with a near-term refinancing: noncurrent debt rose from $10,439m to $39,280m in a single quarter and quarterly interest expense from $68m to $317m. Separately, $4,000m of floating-rate Informatica bank debt at 4.42% matures in November 2026 and must be refinanced. Management cut FY2027 cash flow growth guidance roughly in half and named the debt issuance as the reason.
• Earnings quality and the non-GAAP bridge: Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 sits 60% above GAAP EPS of $2.42, bridged by stock-based compensation of $1.00 per share, guided at 9.0% of FY2027 revenue, and purchased-intangible amortisation of $0.64. On top of that, $0.51 of the $3.88 was a mark-to-market gain on the strategic investment portfolio, which the company itself excludes from guidance because it cannot forecast it.
• Acquisition digestion and goodwill concentration: Informatica closed only in November 2025 and is listed first among the enumerated risks in Salesforce's own safe-harbour language. At least seven further tuck-ins have followed in twelve months. Goodwill stands at $59,291m against total equity of $34,235m — goodwill is 1.7 times the entire book value, so any material impairment would be existential to reported equity.
• Microsoft's distribution advantage: Microsoft ships Copilot into Dynamics 365 and Microsoft 365 seats customers already hold, and bundles AI into a premium tier, against Salesforce's modular add-on pricing. Microsoft's market capitalisation is more than twenty times Salesforce's and Azure alone generates over twice Salesforce's total revenue, which supports a level of AI capital expenditure Salesforce cannot match directly.
• Renewed activist interest: Starboard Value increased its Salesforce stake by nearly 50% during Q2 2026, to 1.3m shares as at 30 June 2026 from 849,679 at 31 March 2026. Starboard was the first activist into Salesforce in late 2022 and was subsequently joined by Third Point, ValueAct and Elliott Management in a campaign that forced margin expansion and board changes. Re-engagement into a heavily drawn-down stock would constrain management's discretion to invest.
• Executive churn at the top of the operating organisation: in eighteen months Salesforce lost its COO to retirement, created a President and Chief Financial and Operating Officer role, then on 5 August 2026 promoted Miguel Milano to Chief Operating Officer, moved its 14-year President of Engineering and Customer Success to an advisory role, installed an ex-Microsoft executive as Chief Platform and Engineering Officer, and replaced its Chief Revenue Officer. The company now has both a President and COFO and a President and COO, an ambiguous split of operating accountability, while promising a second-half reacceleration.
• Currency and enterprise IT spending: Salesforce quantifies a $300m year-on-year FX headwind on FY2027 revenue and $200m on Q2 FY2027 current RPO, and 34.5% of FY2026 revenue came from outside the Americas. The 10-K also warns that in a subscription model the effect of a significant demand downturn "may not be fully reflected in our results of operations until future periods" — the damage arrives with a lag of several quarters.

11. Recent Developments

• 13 Jan 2026 — the reimagined Slackbot reached general availability. Positioned as a personal AI agent for work and the front door to the agentic enterprise. Custom AI agents on Slack subsequently grew 300%.
• 10 Feb 2026 — first round of 2026 role reductions. Fewer than 1,000 roles cut across marketing, product management, data analytics, Agentforce and Heroku.
• 25 Feb 2026 — Q4 and FY2026 results, a new $50bn buyback authorisation and a dividend increase. FY2026 revenue $41.5bn, up 10%; RPO $72.4bn, up 14%; current RPO $35.1bn, up 16%; FY2026 operating cash flow $15.0bn. The board authorised $50bn of repurchases, replacing all previously unused authorisations, and raised the quarterly dividend 5.8% to $0.44. FY2027 guidance was initiated at $45.8bn to $46.2bn.
• 16 Mar 2026 — Salesforce announced its largest-ever share repurchase. A $25bn accelerated share repurchase entered on 11 March 2026 with Banco Santander, Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, with upfront delivery of 103 million shares, about 80% of the expected total.
• 19 Mar 2026 — two directors bought stock on the open market. David Blair Kirk on 18 March and Laura Alber on 19 March each purchased roughly $500,000 of shares at about $194.60, the only open-market purchases by insiders in 2026.
• 31 Mar 2026 — Marc Benioff terminated his Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, cancelling planned sales of up to 351,607 shares scheduled between April 2026 and February 2027, as disclosed in the Q1 FY2027 10-Q.
• 15 Apr 2026 — Headless 360 launched at TrailblazerDX 2026, exposing the entire platform through APIs, more than 60 MCP tools and CLI commands under the banner "no browser required". Agentforce Vibes 2.0 was unveiled at the same event.
• 22 Apr 2026 — the Google Cloud partnership was expanded, enabling AI agents to act across both platforms with deep context and end-to-end workflows deployable in Slack and Google Workspace, with Gemini 3.5 Flash running natively in the Atlas Reasoning Engine from June 2026.
• 27 May 2026 — Q1 FY2027 results raised revenue guidance but halved cash flow guidance. Revenue $11.13bn, up 13%; GAAP EPS $2.42; non-GAAP EPS $3.88; current RPO $33.6bn, up 14%. FY2027 revenue guidance was raised at the midpoint to $45.9bn to $46.2bn, but operating and free cash flow growth guidance was cut from roughly 9% to 10% down to roughly 4% to 5% on the ASR debt.
• 28 May 2026 — the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders was held virtually, and the board declared a $0.44 quarterly dividend payable 2 July 2026 to holders of record on 11 June 2026.
• 10 Jun 2026 — the shares reached a multi-year low of $146.32 during the sector-wide de-rating of seat-based software, roughly 46% below the 52-week high.
• 05 Aug 2026 — a major executive reshuffle three weeks before earnings. Miguel Milano was promoted to Chief Operating Officer while Robin Washington retained the President and COFO title; Srini Tallapragada, President of Engineering and Customer Success for 14 years, moved to a one-year advisory role; Rohan Kumar was named Chief Platform and Engineering Officer; and Alexa Vignone was named Chief Revenue Officer. The same day, Salesforce confirmed Q2 FY2027 results for 26 August 2026.
• 19 Aug 2026 — Headless 360 was significantly expanded with new MCP servers and deeper Slack integration.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 26 Aug 2026 — Q2 FY2027 results, for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, released after the US market close with the call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. Company guidance is revenue of $11.27bn to $11.35bn, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.74 to $1.76, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.27, and current RPO growth of approximately 14%.
• 26 Aug 2026 — the Q3 FY2027 quarterly dividend is expected to be declared alongside the Q2 results, on the current $0.44 quarterly rate.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Dreamforce 2026 opens at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, running to 17 September. Salesforce has historically used Dreamforce for its largest product announcements.
• Expected Nov 2026 — maturity of the $4.0bn 364-day Informatica credit agreement, floating at 4.42%, which must be repaid or refinanced.
• Expected Dec 2026 — Q3 FY2027 results, for the quarter ending 31 October 2026. Not yet announced; Salesforce typically confirms about three weeks ahead, and Q3 FY2026 was released on 3 December 2025.
• Expected Dec 2026 — final settlement of the $25bn accelerated share repurchase, which the Q1 FY2027 release places in Q3 FY2027, though the agreement itself allows Q3 or Q4 FY2027.
• Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and FY2027 results, against full-year guidance of $45.9bn to $46.2bn of revenue and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $14.06 to $14.12. Q4 FY2026 was released on 25 February 2026.
• Expected Apr 2028 — maturity of the $1,500m 3.70% 2028 Senior Notes, the first of the long-dated bond maturities.

Dividend declarations have followed each quarterly results release, with record dates roughly two weeks later and payment dates roughly two weeks after that. The most recent completed cycle was declared 28 May 2026, record 11 June 2026 and paid 2 July 2026.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 11 Oct 2026

Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), known as Supermicro, designs and builds servers, storage and complete liquid-cooled AI racks. Its main customers are hyperscale, neocloud and enterprise data centres. The company was founded in 1993 by Charles Liang, who is still President, CEO and Chairman, and is based in San Jose, California. In fiscal 2026, which ended 30 Jun 2026, net sales rose 77.8% to $39.06bn on demand for NVIDIA GB200 and GB300 rack-scale systems. Management guided FY2027 net sales of $65–72bn and reported more than $60bn of new orders during FY2026. Growth has come with costs. Operating cash flow was −$6.8bn because inventory and receivables built up, and total debt rose to about $8.7bn. In March 2026 a co-founder was indicted for export-control violations, and the auditor gave an adverse opinion on internal controls. A board-led investigation concluded in Aug 2026 and found no evidence that current senior management knew of the diversion.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker	SMCI (Nasdaq Global Select Market); SMCIP depositary shares (7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred)
Headquarters	980 Rock Avenue, San Jose, California (Delaware corporation)
CEO / Leadership	Charles Liang (founder, President, CEO and Chairman); David Weigand (SVP and CFO)
Employees	Over 7,000 at 30 Jun 2026, including ~3,500 in R&D and ~2,100 in manufacturing (FY2026 Form 10-K)
Sector	Information Technology: servers, storage and AI data-centre infrastructure
FY2026 Revenue	$39.06bn (+77.8% YoY)
FY2026 Net income (GAAP)	$2.23bn; diluted EPS $3.26 (non-GAAP $3.63)
FY2027 guidance	Net sales $65–72bn; Q1 FY2027 net sales $14.5–15.5bn
Market cap	~$27.5bn (9 Oct 2026 close $41.85 × 657.0m shares at 31 Jul 2026)
Fiscal year end	30 Jun

Liang and his wife, co-founder and director Sara Liu, are still large shareholders. Liang reports about 40.4m shares held directly and a further 25.3m held jointly with Liu. A 10-for-1 stock split took effect on 30 Sep 2024, and all per-share figures below are split-adjusted.

2. Bull & Bear

Bull Case

• Revenue scale-up: Net sales rose from $5.2bn in FY2022 to $39.1bn in FY2026. The FY2027 guidance of $65–72bn implies another 66–84% of growth.
• Margin recovery in Q4: GAAP gross margin was 6.3% in Q2 FY2026 and 9.9% in Q3, then reached 17.5% in Q4. The CEO credited a richer enterprise mix and wider adoption of DCBBS.
• Order book: The company reported more than $60bn of new orders in FY2026 and record backlog. About $39bn of AI server orders arrived in the weeks before the Jun 2026 equity raise.
• Early to market with new platforms: Supermicro began shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks with its DLC-2 liquid cooling on 23 Sep 2026. It has capacity for up to 3,000 racks a month, 2,000 of them liquid-cooled.
• Investigation finished: The independent review by Munger Tolles and AlixPartners found no evidence that current senior management knew of the server diversion and no direct sales to restricted parties. No restatement was indicated.

Bear Case

• Cash consumption: FY2026 operating cash flow was −$6.81bn. Inventory used $8.88bn of cash and receivables $3.92bn, and non-cancellable purchase commitments total $34.2bn.
• Leverage and dilution: Total debt is about $8.7bn: $4.06bn of bank lines and term loans plus $4.66bn of convertible notes. On top of that sit a $4.2bn mandatory convertible preferred, 45.5m new shares sold at $27.50 and a $1.25bn ATM programme.
• Governance and legal overhang: Co-founder Wally Liaw goes on trial in SDNY on 2 Nov 2026. SEC and Commerce Department export inquiries are ongoing, and BDO gave an adverse ICFR opinion for FY2026.
• Concentration: One customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales, and one supplier accounted for 63.1% of purchases.
• Thin, volatile margins: FY2026 GAAP gross margin was 10.8% and operating margin 7.1%. Quarterly gross margin ranged from 6.3% to 17.5%.

3. Business Segments

Supermicro reports one operating segment. From FY2025 it stopped tagging the split between server and storage systems and subsystems and accessories. The FY2026 10-K does disclose service and software revenue and a geographic breakdown.

Segment / category	% of revenue (FY2026)	What it is
Hardware: server and storage systems, subsystems and accessories	~98.6% (~$38.52bn)	GPU and Hyper servers, liquid-cooled rack-scale AI systems (GB200/GB300 and now Vera Rubin), storage, edge and MicroCloud systems, plus server boards, chassis and power supplies
Services and software	~1.4% ($538.3m)	Global services and support ($420.3m), plus server management and DCBBS deployment software

Region	FY2026 net sales	Share
United States	$27.69bn	70.9% (FY2025: 59.4%)
Asia	$6.06bn	15.5%
Europe	$2.67bn	6.8%
Other	$2.64bn	6.7%

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Supermicro designs systems in-house in San Jose and builds them in the US, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Netherlands. It sells complete servers and racks, increasingly fully integrated and liquid-cooled, directly to large data-centre operators and through channel partners. Revenue is recognised on shipment or acceptance. The economics are those of a high-volume integrator. GPUs and memory make up most of the bill of materials, so gross margins sit in the single digits to mid-teens, and profit depends on fast inventory turns and operating leverage.

The moat. Supermicro’s Building Block Solutions architecture lets it bring each new NVIDIA, AMD or Intel platform to market quickly. In-house direct liquid cooling (DLC-2), from cold plates to CDUs and cooling towers, and the DCBBS data-centre blueprints let it deliver complete scalable units. These range from 5 MW to gigawatt scale and include on-site deployment. Large-scale rack integration and testing capacity is scarce, and buyers pay for the speed it gives them.

Where the moat is thin. Dell, HPE, Lenovo and the Taiwanese ODMs (Foxconn, Quanta, Wiwynn) have access to the same GPUs. Large customers spread orders across several suppliers. GPU allocation is controlled by one dominant supplier. Recurring service and software revenue is only about 1.4% of sales.

5. Financial Health

All figures come from Supermicro’s earnings releases and Form 10-K filings, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Net sales have grown seven-fold in four years. Working capital and debt have grown with them.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	$5,196.1m	+46.1%	$0.53	$0.57	Nil	$147.6m
FY2023	$7,123.5m	+37.1%	$1.14	$1.18	Nil	$120.2m
FY2024	$14,989.3m	+110.4%	$1.92	$2.12	Nil	$1,771.8m (incl. $1,697.7m converts)
FY2025	$21,972.0m	+46.6%	$1.68	$2.06	Nil	$4,682.6m (incl. $4,645.2m converts)
FY2026	$39,063.1m	+77.8%	$3.26	$3.63	Nil	$6,680.5m (incl. $4,664.1m converts)

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q4 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2026)	$11,119.8m	$1.70	$1.62
Q3 FY2026 (Jan–Mar 2026)	$10,243.0m	$0.84	$0.72
Q2 FY2026 (Oct–Dec 2025)	$12,682.5m	$0.69	$0.60
Q1 FY2026 (Jul–Sep 2025)	$5,017.8m	$0.35	$0.26
FY2026 total	$39,063.1m	$3.63	$3.26

FY2026 results. Gross profit was $4.23bn (10.8% margin), operating income $2.77bn and net income $2.23bn.

FY2026 cash flow.

• Operating cash flow: −$6,809.9m (Q4 alone was +$747m)
• Capex: $162.0m
• Depreciation and amortisation: $53.7m in the cash-flow add-back, plus $36.6m of right-of-use asset amortisation

Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026.

• Cash and equivalents of $7,521.5m and $23.1m of marketable securities.
• Current bank debt of $2,039.8m, non-current bank debt of $2,016.4m and convertible notes of $4,664.1m, for total debt of about $8,720m.
• The $4,226.3m mandatory convertible preferred sits in equity.
• Inventory was $12.90bn.

Debt detail. The convertible notes are $700m of 2.25% notes due 2028, $1,725m of 0% notes due 2029 and $2,300m of notes due 2030. The bank lines are $2.0bn drawn on the JPMorgan revolver and $1.76bn on CTBC facilities. Interest expense rose from $59.6m in FY2025 to $194.6m in FY2026.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$27.5bn (9 Oct 2026 close $41.85 × 657.0m shares)
Enterprise value	~$28.7bn (market cap ~$27.5bn + total debt ~$8.72bn − cash and marketable securities ~$7.54bn, from the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet). This excludes the $4.23bn mandatory convertible preferred; including it gives ~$32.9bn.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~12.8x ($41.85 / FY2026 diluted EPS $3.26). On non-GAAP EPS of $3.63 the multiple is ~11.5x.
P/E (forward)	~9.9x on annualised Q1 FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance (midpoint $1.055 × 4 = $4.22); ~11.2x on annualised GAAP guidance (midpoint $0.935 × 4)
P/S (TTM)	~0.70x (market cap ~$27.5bn / FY2026 net sales $39.06bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~10.2x (EV ~$28.7bn / EBITDA ~$2.82bn; EBITDA = operating income $2,770.5m + D&A $53.7m from the FY2026 cash-flow statement)
P/FCF	n/m: FCF is negative at about −$6.97bn (operating cash flow −$6,809.9m − capex $162.0m in FY2026)
52-week high	$58.51
52-week low	$19.48
Short interest (% of float)	17.26% (95.16m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	2.7

Earnings-based multiples look low compared with the growth guidance. However, free cash flow is deeply negative because of the inventory build. The convertible notes, mandatory preferred and ATM programme together mean the per-share count could rise by a large amount. The company’s own Q1 FY2027 guidance assumes 761m non-GAAP diluted shares, against 657m basic shares outstanding.

7. What Are They Building

Vera Rubin NVL72 racks. Shipping began on 23 Sep 2026. Each rack holds 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs, and the reference scalable unit links 16 racks for 1,152 GPUs. Customers can order a scalable unit and receive a production-ready, integrated system.

DCBBS and DLC-2 liquid cooling. Data Center Building Block Solutions packages compute, storage, networking, power, liquid cooling, site design and on-site deployment into blueprints from 5 MW to gigawatt scale. A rack line launched on 30 Jul 2026 can produce up to 3,000 racks a month, 2,000 of them liquid-cooled.

AMD Helios. At Computex in Jun 2026 Supermicro showed an AMD Helios rack with 72 liquid-cooled MI455X GPUs, built as part of DCBBS. It gives the company a second accelerator roadmap alongside NVIDIA.

Manufacturing footprint. The company is adding capacity in Silicon Valley, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Netherlands. A Malaysian 10-year tax exemption depends on meeting an investment threshold by 16 Dec 2026.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (October 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Dell Technologies (DELL)	~$372bn (6 Oct 2026, Google Finance)	FY2026 revenue $113.5bn (+19%); Infrastructure Solutions Group $60.8bn (+40%) (Dell Q4 FY2026 release)
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)	~$97.5bn (10 Oct 2026, companiesmarketcap.com)	FY2025 revenue $34.3bn (+13.8%) (HPE FY2025 Form 10-K)
Lenovo Group (0992.HK)	~$51.9bn (Oct 2026, companiesmarketcap.com)	FY2025/26 revenue $83.1bn (+20%); Infrastructure Solutions Group $19.2bn (Lenovo FY2025/26 results)
Celestica (CLS)	~$44–48bn (Nasdaq $43.97bn on 5 Oct 2026; companiesmarketcap.com $48.3bn)	2025 revenue $12.4bn (+28%) (Celestica FY2025 release)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)	~$27.5bn (9 Oct 2026)	FY2026 net sales $39.06bn (+77.8%); GAAP gross margin 10.8%

Supermicro had the fastest revenue growth in the group, but its market cap is now smaller than that of every peer in the table, including Celestica, which has about a third of its revenue.

9. Insider Activity

CEO Charles Liang has not bought or sold shares himself in 2026. He reports the sales below on his own Form 4s as an indirect holder, because the shares belong to his wife, co-founder and director Sara Liu. MarketBeat records no insider purchases in the past 12 months.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Sara Liu (co-founder and director; also reported indirectly by Charles Liang)	07 Oct 2026	Sale	100,000	$45.02 (avg)	~$4.50m	10b5-1 (adopted 26 May 2026; up to 300,000 shares; expires 28 Feb 2027)
Sara Liu (co-founder and director; also reported indirectly by Charles Liang)	03 Sep 2026	Sale	100,000	$37.19	~$3.72m	10b5-1 (same plan)

The two sales total about $8.2m. Aggregators that add up both Liu’s and Liang’s Form 4s count the same shares twice. Up to 100,000 more shares can be sold under the plan before it expires.

10. Key Risks

• Material litigation and investigations: SMCI is not a defendant in the SDNY export-control case (US v. Liaw), but it has received a grand jury subpoena and a second SEC subpoena, and is subject to Commerce Department export enforcement inquiries. Penalties or export restrictions could follow, and securities class actions and derivative suits are pending.
• Customer and supplier concentration: One customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales, and two customers made up 23.0% and 17.1% of receivables. One supplier accounted for 63.1% of purchases.
• Working capital and leverage: Operating cash flow was −$6.8bn, with $34.2bn of purchase commitments, about $8.7bn of debt and interest expense of $194.6m. The company depends on credit lines and capital markets staying open.
• Internal controls: BDO gave an adverse ICFR opinion at 30 Jun 2026, and one IT general-controls material weakness is still unresolved.
• Dilution: Converts due 2028, 2029 and 2030, the mandatory convertible preferred (which converts by Jun 2029) and the $1.25bn ATM programme could add a large number of shares.
• AI demand and margin volatility: Results depend on GPU allocation and hyperscaler capex cycles. Quarterly gross margin ranged from 6.3% to 17.5% in FY2026, and inventory write-downs were $188.1m.
• Patents, tariffs and taxes: Netlist has brought ITC patent complaints. Tariff exposure is ongoing, and the Malaysian tax incentive has not yet been approved.

11. Recent Developments

• 08 Oct 2026 — Board changes. Shesha Krishnapura, formerly CTO of Intel IT, was appointed an independent director effective 9 Oct 2026. Director Judy Lin gave notice of her retirement on 7 Oct.
• 07 Oct 2026 — Co-founder 10b5-1 sale. Sara Liu sold 100,000 shares at an average of $45.02 (about $4.5m) under a plan adopted in May 2026.
• 23 Sep 2026 — Vera Rubin NVL72 shipping. Supermicro began shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks with DLC-2 liquid cooling as part of DCBBS.
• 31 Aug 2026 — FY2026 Form 10-K filed. The audited figures matched the preliminary results. BDO gave an adverse opinion on internal control over financial reporting; three earlier material weaknesses were fixed and one IT controls weakness remains.
• 20 Aug 2026 — Independent investigation completed. The review found no evidence that current senior management knew of the diversion of servers to China and no direct sales to restricted parties. Some employees were dismissed and export compliance was strengthened.
• 11 Aug 2026 — FY2026 results. Q4 net sales were $11.12bn, GAAP gross margin 17.5% and non-GAAP EPS $1.70. FY2026 net sales were $39.06bn. Guidance is $14.5–15.5bn of net sales for Q1 FY2027 and $65–72bn for FY2027. The shares rose about 19% the next day.
• 05 Aug 2026 — First preferred dividend declared. The SMCIP depositary shares received $0.73889 per share, paid on 1 Sep 2026.

12. Key Dates

• 02 Nov 2026 — Scheduled start of the SDNY criminal trial of co-founder Wally Liaw (US v. Liaw).
• Expected Nov 2026 — Q1 FY2027 results. The date has not yet been announced; Q1 results have usually come in early November.
• 01 Dec 2026 — Next scheduled quarterly dividend on the 7.00% Series A mandatory convertible preferred, subject to board declaration.
• 16 Dec 2026 — Deadline to meet the investment threshold for the Malaysian 10-year tax exemption.
• 04 Feb 2027 — 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, expected to be held virtually (per the FY2026 Form 10-K).
• 28 Feb 2027 — Expiry of Sara Liu’s Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.

You can follow the share price on ChartsView Live Charts, check macro release dates on the Economic Calendar and discuss AI infrastructure stocks on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 October 2026

D-Wave Quantum sells access to its annealing quantum computers through the Leap cloud, sells complete on-premise systems, and since buying Quantum Circuits in January 2026 is also building gate-model machines. FY2025 revenue almost tripled to $24.6m on a single large system sale, but quarterly revenue has since run at about $3m while bookings reached a record $33.4m in Q1 2026. The shares moved from the NYSE to Nasdaq on 27 Jul 2026, and the US Commerce Department is taking a minority stake under a CHIPS Act R&D award. This refresh rebuilds every figure from the FY2025 10-K, the Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings release, and SEC XBRL data. Follow the live price on our Live Charts page and the macro backdrop on the Economic Calendar.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker	NASDAQ: QBTS (transferred from the NYSE; Nasdaq trading began 27 Jul 2026)
Sector	Technology — quantum computing (annealing and gate-model)
Headquarters	Palo Alto, California; moving to Boca Raton, Florida by end-2026. Manufacturing and development in Burnaby, Canada
CEO / Leadership	Dr Alan Baratz (President & CEO since 2020); Sharon Holt (Chair since 4 Jun 2026); Greg Golkov (acting CFO since 2 Sep 2026)
Employees	~388, of which 382 full-time (5 Feb 2026, FY2025 10-K, including Quantum Circuits)
Revenue (FY2025)	$24.6m (+178.5% YoY)
Net loss (FY2025)	$(355.1)m including a $270.5m non-cash warrant charge; GAAP diluted EPS $(1.11)
Revenue (Q2 2026)	$3.1m (flat YoY); GAAP net loss $(48.0)m
Market cap	~$5.4bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $14.57 × ~372.4m shares including exchangeable shares)
Cash and investments	$546.2m at 30 Jun 2026; loans payable $35.0m
Dividend	None

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record bookings and a Q4 delivery ramp: H1 2026 bookings were $35.5m, including a $20m Advantage2 sale to Florida Atlantic University, and management expects two system deliveries to make Q4 2026 the largest quarter of the year.
• Gate-model progress: The Quantum Circuits deal added dual-rail qubits, and a Nature paper on 5 Aug 2026 reported a two-qubit gate with about 99.9% fidelity, giving D-Wave a second platform alongside annealing.
• US government backing: The CHIPS Act agreement signed on 8 Sep 2026 provides up to $100m of R&D funding, with the Commerce Department receiving 7.1m shares as a minority stake.
• Funded runway: Cash and marketable securities of $546.2m against $35.0m of loans cover several years at the H1 2026 operating cash burn of $73.5m.

Bear Case

• Small and lumpy revenue: TTM revenue is only $12.4m, and one customer provided 67% of FY2025 revenue through a single system sale.
• Widening losses: Adjusted EBITDA was $(37.1)m in Q2 2026 against $(20.0)m a year earlier as the Quantum Circuits team and gate-model spending were added.
• Leadership change and insider selling: The CFO retired on 2 Sep 2026, the chair changed in June, and the CEO sold about $18.0m of stock in June 2026.
• Extreme sales multiple: The market cap of about $5.4bn is more than 400 times TTM revenue.

3. Business Segments

D-Wave reports one operating segment and discloses revenue by type. The table shows the FY2025 split of $24.6m from the 10-K revenue note. In Q2 2026, with no large system sale, QCaaS was 60.5% of revenue and professional services 30.2%.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
System sales	65.8% ($16.2m)	On-premise Advantage and Advantage2 systems, including the purchase and upgrade of the Jülich system in Germany
QCaaS	22.4% ($5.5m)	Subscription access to annealing systems and hybrid solvers through the Leap cloud
Professional services	11.1% ($2.7m)	Application development, proofs of concept and production deployment support
Other	0.7% ($0.2m)	Other revenue

By geography, Germany provided 68.2% of FY2025 revenue and the US 10.8%. In Q2 2026 US customers were 70.7% of revenue.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. D-Wave sells cloud subscriptions to its annealing computers, complete on-premise systems to research centres and governments, and professional services that help companies build optimisation applications. System sales are large but irregular, while QCaaS provides recurring income.

Dual platform. The roughly 4,500-qubit Advantage2 annealer, released in May 2025, targets optimisation problems such as scheduling and logistics. The gate-model programme, built on Quantum Circuits' dual-rail qubits, plans a 17-qubit system in 2026, 49 qubits in 2027 and 10 logical qubits by 2030.

Customers and partners. Systems are installed or contracted at Jülich (Germany), Davidson Technologies (Alabama), Florida Atlantic University and, through Swiss Quantum Technology, in Italy. CGI signed a partnership on 23 Sep 2026 to bring Advantage2 to enterprise clients, and NEC resells Leap in Japan and Australia.

Moat assessment. D-Wave has more than two decades of annealing experience, over 550 granted and pending patents plus more than 250 from Quantum Circuits. Whether annealing delivers lasting advantage over classical solvers is still debated, and its gate-model effort is early.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from D-Wave's 10-K filings and Q4 earnings releases, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. FY2020 revenue of $5.2m is the base for the FY2021 YoY figure.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$6.3m	+21.7%	$(0.33)	$(0.33)†	$0.00	$30.3m
FY2022	$7.2m	+14.2%	$(0.45)	$(0.45)†	$0.00	$31.2m
FY2023	$8.8m	+22.1%	$(0.60)	$(0.60)†	$0.00	$63.9m
FY2024	$8.8m	+0.8%	$(0.75)	$(0.39)	$0.00	$30.1m
FY2025	$24.6m	+178.5%	$(1.11)	$(0.26)	$0.00	$35.8m

† D-Wave did not publish an adjusted EPS figure for FY2021–FY2023, so GAAP diluted EPS is repeated. FY2024 and FY2025 adjusted EPS is D-Wave's adjusted net loss per share, which mainly excludes warrant fair-value changes. FY2021 and FY2022 EPS and debt are as restated in the FY2022 10-K/A. Long-term debt is non-current loans payable: mainly the Canadian Strategic Innovation Fund loan, plus in FY2023 the PSPIB term loan, which was repaid in October 2024.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$3.1m	$(0.13)‡	$(0.13)
Q1 2026	$2.9m	$(0.05)‡	$(0.05)
Q4 2025	$2.8m	$(0.09)	$(0.12)
Q3 2025	$3.7m	$(0.05)	$(0.41)
Q2 2025	$3.1m	$(0.08)	$(0.55)
Q1 2025	$15.0m	Not disclosed	$(0.02)
FY2025 total	$24.6m	$(0.26)	$(1.11)

‡ No warrants remained after November 2025, so D-Wave presented no adjusted net loss in 2026 and GAAP EPS is repeated. Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $(18.4)m was reduced by a $28.5m tax benefit linked to the Quantum Circuits acquisition. Q1 2025 revenue included a $12.6m system sale. FY2025 operating cash flow was $(72.0)m, capital expenditure was $3.9m and D&A was $1.6m. At 30 Jun 2026 D-Wave held $296.6m of cash and $249.6m of marketable securities; remaining performance obligations were $40.7m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$5.43bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $14.57 × ~372.4m shares)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m — TTM GAAP diluted EPS is about $(0.71) (Q3 2025 $(0.41) + Q4 2025 $(0.12) + Q1 2026 $(0.05) + Q2 2026 $(0.13)). On adjusted EPS the TTM figure is also negative.
P/E (forward)	n/m — losses expected; D-Wave gives no EPS guidance
P/S (TTM)	~437x (market cap ~$5.43bn / TTM revenue $12.4m; TTM = Q3 2025 $3.7m + Q4 2025 $2.8m + Q1 2026 $2.9m + Q2 2026 $3.1m)
P/FCF	n/m — FCF is negative: FY2025 FCF ~$(75.8)m = operating CF $(72.0)m − capex $3.9m per FY2025 cash flow statement; TTM FCF to Q2 2026 ~$(119.1)m
Enterprise value	~$4.92bn (market cap ~$5.43bn + total debt ~$35.0m − cash and marketable securities ~$546.2m per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	n/m — EBITDA is negative: TTM operating loss $(170.6)m + TTM D&A $9.4m (cash flow statement) = ~$(161.2)m
52-week high	$46.75 (15 Oct 2025)
52-week low	$12.75
Short interest (% of float)	18.62% (67.98m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	~4.7 (on 26.63m average daily volume)

7. What Are They Building

• Bigger annealers: A multi-chip system of 20,000 qubits is planned for 2029 and 100,000 qubits by 2031. A new input/output prototype is designed to reach 100,000 qubits with no more than 20% more control lines than Advantage2.
• Gate-model roadmap: Dual-rail superconducting qubits from Quantum Circuits, targeting a 17-qubit system in 2026, 49 qubits in 2027, about 181 qubits in 2028, 10 logical qubits in 2030 and 100 logical qubits in 2032.
• Software: A gate-model simulator entered beta on 1 Oct 2026 with BBVA, FirstQFM, FAU and Jülich as early users. Recent annealing features include multicolor annealing, fast-reverse anneal and the Stride hybrid solver.
• Cryogenic control: D-Wave has shown on-chip control of gate-model qubits that drives tens of thousands of qubits and couplers with about 200 wires.
• Facilities: A new headquarters and R&D centre in Boca Raton, Florida, with CHIPS-funded R&D split across Boca Raton, New Haven and Burnaby.
• Government business: A dedicated US government unit and work with Davidson Technologies and Anduril on defence planning problems.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
IonQ (IONQ)	~$16.2bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $39.89)	Revenue $130.0m (+201.9%), per IonQ FY2025 release
Quantinuum (QNT)	~$10.9bn (8–9 Oct 2026)	Revenue $30.9m, net loss $192.6m (S-1 filed May 2026); IPO on Nasdaq 4 Jun 2026
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)	~$4.7bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $14.03)	Revenue $7.1m, down from $10.8m, per Rigetti FY2025 results
Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT)	~$1.7bn (9 Oct 2026)	Revenue about $0.68m, per FY2025 results
IBM (IBM)	~$214bn (9 Oct 2026)	Total revenue $67.5bn; advanced to DARPA QBI Stage C on 7 Oct 2026
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)	~$5.4bn (9 Oct 2026)	Revenue $24.6m (+178.5%); bookings $18.7m

9. Insider Activity

Every 2026 Form 4 transaction found was a sale; there were no open-market purchases. CEO Alan Baratz exercised 687,627 options and sold the shares on 8 Jun 2026 for financial and tax planning purposes, and still holds about 3.3m shares including unvested RSUs. Former CFO John Markovich sold heavily in May and June before retiring. Recent Form 4 filings:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
John D. DiLullo (Director)	08 Sep 2026	Sale	1,100	~$18.00	~$19.8k	10b5-1
Sophie Ames (EVP & Chief HR Officer)	20 Jul 2026	Sale	3,070	$16.95	~$52.0k	10b5-1
Rohit Ghai (Director)	15 Jun 2026	Sale	13,518	$26.41	~$357k	Not stated
John Markovich (then CFO)	12–15 Jun 2026	Sale	246,043	$24.01–$25.75	~$6.25m	No 10b5-1 footnote
Alan Baratz (CEO)	08 Jun 2026	Option exercise and sale	687,627	$26.13	~$17.97m	No 10b5-1 footnote
John Markovich (then CFO)	22 May 2026	Option exercise and sale	328,752	$27.70	~$9.11m	Not stated
Diane Nguyen (EVP & General Counsel)	21 May 2026	Sale	40,000	$25.01	~$1.00m	Not stated
Alan Baratz (CEO)	13 Jan 2026	Sale	35,013	$28.06	~$982k	Not stated

10. Key Risks

• Customer concentration and lumpy sales: One customer provided 67% of FY2025 revenue, and FY2026 depends on two system deliveries in Q4.
• Cash burn and future funding: Operating cash outflow was $(73.5)m in H1 2026 and the $256m Quantum Circuits cash payment cut liquidity by a third; past growth was funded by ATM programmes and warrant exercises.
• Technology execution: The gate-model roadmap is early and must hit qubit and error-rate targets, while annealing has to keep showing value against classical solvers.
• Leadership transition: D-Wave has an acting CFO after John Markovich retired on 2 Sep 2026, and the board chair changed in June 2026.
• Conditional government funding: Only about $53.6m of the $100m CHIPS award is in the initial tranche; the rest depends on milestones and appropriations.
• Shareholder investigations: Several law firms announced investigations in early October 2026 citing the Q2 revenue miss and the CFO's departure; no lawsuit had been filed as of this update.
• Competition: Larger, better-funded rivals such as IBM, Google, IonQ and Quantinuum, plus classical optimisation software, compete for the same budgets.

11. Recent Developments

• 07 Oct 2026 — Sector sell-off on yields. QBTS fell 3.6% as Treasury yields rose; the same day DARPA advanced IonQ and IBM to Stage C of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, and D-Wave was not named.
• 06 Oct 2026 — FAU workforce grant. Florida Atlantic University, which is buying an Advantage2 system, received a NIST quantum cybersecurity workforce grant.
• 04 Oct 2026 — Law-firm investigation notices. Several firms announced shareholder investigations citing the Q2 2026 revenue miss and the CFO's exit.
• 01 Oct 2026 — Gate-model simulator. D-Wave launched a gate-model simulator in beta with BBVA, FirstQFM, FAU and Jülich as early users.
• 23 Sep 2026 — CGI partnership. CGI agreed to integrate Advantage2 and D-Wave's hybrid solvers into its services for logistics, transportation and retail clients.
• 21 Sep 2026 — Board appointment. Bernard Gavgani joined the board and its cybersecurity committee.
• 08 Sep 2026 — CHIPS Act agreement. D-Wave signed a definitive agreement for up to $100m of R&D funding and will issue 7,095,721 shares to the Commerce Department at $14.093.
• 25 Aug 2026 — CFO retirement. CFO John Markovich retired effective 2 Sep 2026, and Greg Golkov became acting CFO. The shares fell about 8%.
• 06 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue was flat at $3.1m, the GAAP net loss was $(48.0)m and bookings were $2.1m; management said most FY2026 revenue would come in Q4.
• 05 Aug 2026 — Nature paper. D-Wave reported a dual-rail two-qubit gate with about 99.9% fidelity.

12. Key Dates

• 28 Oct 2026 — Qubits Asia 2026 user conference in Seoul
• Expected 5 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (date not yet confirmed by D-Wave; Q3 2025 was reported on 6 Nov 2025)
• Expected Dec 2026 — By year end: two system deliveries, start of the FAU installation and completion of the headquarters move to Boca Raton
• Expected 2027 — 49-qubit gate-model system on the published roadmap
• 04 Sep 2031 — End of the CHIPS Act performance period (up to five years from 4 Sep 2026)

Discuss D-Wave and other quantum stocks on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 11 Oct 2026

Rigetti Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) builds superconducting gate-based quantum computers from modular chiplets, which it fabricates in its own Fab-1 facility in Fremont, California. The company was founded in 2013, has its headquarters in Berkeley, California, and listed via a SPAC merger in March 2022. It sells three things: research contracts, on-premises quantum processors (Novera QPUs and full systems) and cloud access to its machines. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue rose 185% to $5.1m, with sales of systems and components now making up most of the top line. On 8 Sep 2026 Rigetti signed a definitive agreement for up to $100m of CHIPS funding from the US Department of Commerce, which takes an equity stake in exchange. The company still has no debt and held $541.3m of cash and investments at 30 Jun 2026. However, its 108-qubit system is still short of its fidelity target, and the shares closed at $14.03 on 9 Oct 2026, close to their 52-week low.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker	RGTI (Nasdaq Capital Market); public warrants trade as RGTIW ($11.50 strike)
Headquarters	775 Heinz Avenue, Berkeley, California (Delaware corporation)
CEO / Leadership	Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, President & CEO since Dec 2022, re-elected to the board on 9 Jun 2026. Jeffrey Bertelsen, CFO. David Rivas, COO, and Andrew Bestwick, CTO, both in post since 18 Aug 2026
Employees	164 globally, of whom 162 full-time (1 Mar 2026, FY2025 Form 10-K)
Sector	Information Technology: quantum computing hardware
FY2025 Revenue	$7.09m (−34.3% YoY)
FY2025 Net loss (GAAP)	$(216.2)m, including a $150.6m non-cash loss from warrant fair-value changes
H1 2026 Revenue	$9.54m (Q1 $4.40m + Q2 $5.14m)
Cash & investments (30 Jun 2026)	$541.3m; no debt
Market cap	~$4.68bn (9 Oct 2026 close $14.03, ~333.8m shares); the 7.74m shares due to the Department of Commerce would add ~$0.11bn
Fiscal year end	31 Dec (FY2021 was an 11-month transition period after the year end moved from 31 Jan)

Rigetti calls its approach “quantum as a chip”: it treats scaling as a semiconductor fabrication and packaging problem. Larger processors are built by tiling 9-qubit chiplets. In August 2026 the company created a dedicated Systems Delivery organisation, run by new COO David Rivas, because it is now shipping whole on-premises systems to sovereign and research customers rather than mainly selling research hours.

2. Bull & Bear

Bull Case

• Government capital and validation: The 8 Sep 2026 CHIPS agreement provides up to $100m in three tranches ($43.9m, $29.9m and $26.2m) for readout electronics, cryostat and chip-fabrication R&D. The US government becomes a shareholder, receiving 7,739,938 shares at an implied $12.92.
• Revenue has turned up: Q2 2026 revenue was $5.14m, up 185% YoY, and H1 2026 revenue of $9.54m already exceeds the whole of FY2025 ($7.09m). Most of the H1 growth came from QPU and component sales.
• Debt-free balance sheet: Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities were $541.3m at 30 Jun 2026, with no borrowings. That compares with a trailing free cash outflow of about $88m.
• Measurable fidelity gains: Median two-qubit fidelity reached 99.8% on the 9-qubit chiplet at 40ns and 99.6% on the 36-qubit system. A prototype adiabatic CZ gate has reached up to 99.9% at 28ns.
• Sovereign and research customers: Customers include India’s C-DAC ($8.4m 108-qubit order, with revenue expected in Q4 2026), the UK National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC), a Japanese research organisation, the University of Saskatchewan and the HPE/Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center testbed.

Bear Case

• Valuation far ahead of revenue: A ~$4.7bn market cap on trailing revenue of $13.4m is about 350x sales, and the company makes operating losses of roughly $97m a year.
• Roadmap slippage: The 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q was delayed from end-2025 to April 2026 and runs at about 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity, short of the 99.5% target. The ~1,000-qubit goal moved from around end-2027 to roughly three years from Aug 2026.
• Missed DARPA QBI Stage B: DARPA picked 11 teams for Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative in Nov 2025. Rigetti was not among them, and DARPA’s list still excludes it.
• Persistent insider selling: There were no open-market insider purchases in 2026. Officers and a director sold shares throughout the year, including the CEO’s 120,000-share 10b5-1 sale on 9 Sep 2026.
• Dilution keeps coming: The ATM raised $346.7m in 2025, the government is now taking shares, and the RGTIW public warrants ($11.50 strike) remain outstanding until around Mar 2027. The share count keeps growing.

3. Business Segments

Rigetti reports a single operating segment. It discloses revenue by category, shown below for FY2025 from the Form 10-K revenue note.

Segment / category	% of revenue (FY2025)	What it is
Collaborative research and professional services	94.2% ($6.68m)	Milestone-billed R&D contracts with government and corporate customers such as AFRL, DARPA, the DOE, Innovate UK/NQCC and C-DAC
Access to quantum computing systems	5.8% ($0.41m)	Cloud access to Rigetti hardware through Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS), Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum and qBraid
Collaborative research materials and sales of quantum computers	0.0% (FY2024: $2.39m, 22.2%)	Sales of on-premises Novera 9-qubit QPUs, full systems and components

The mix changed sharply in 2026. According to coverage of the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, sales of quantum computers and components were about $7.1m of H1 2026 revenue, against zero in H1 2025, while research and professional services fell to about $2.3m. The 10-K warns that a small number of customers account for a large share of revenue, so one system acceptance can move a whole year’s revenue.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Rigetti has three revenue streams:

• Multi-year research contracts, recognised as milestones are met.
• One-off sales of QPUs and complete systems, recognised on delivery and acceptance and worth several million dollars each.
• Usage-based cloud access.

Gross margin was 29.1% in FY2025 and improved to 42.6% in Q2 2026 as hardware sales grew. Operating expenses are about $30m a quarter, so the company remains heavily loss-making at the operating level.

The moat. Rigetti is one of very few quantum companies that runs its own superconducting chip fab. That lets it iterate chiplet designs quickly. Its modular tiling approach has taken it from 9 to 36 to 108 qubits. The Quanta Computer partnership signed in Feb 2025 covers non-QPU components such as control systems and dilution refrigerators: each party committed at least $250m over five years, and Quanta bought about $35m of stock. The CHIPS agreement adds US government funding and ties the company more closely to domestic supply-chain policy.

Where the moat is thin. Scale and fidelity are where the competition is decided, and Rigetti trails in both. IBM, Google and well-funded trapped-ion and neutral-atom rivals have published bigger systems or better error-correction results. The CHIPS deal also brings obligations: government march-in rights over IP developed with the funding, and restrictions on dealings with foreign entities.

5. Financial Health

All annual figures below come from Rigetti’s earnings releases and Form 10-K filings, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. Revenue has been small and lumpy. GAAP results swing widely because warrant and earn-out liabilities are revalued at fair value each quarter, so operating loss is a better guide to the underlying business.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021‡	$8.2m	n/m (11-month period)	$(1.64)	$(1.64)†	Nil	$24.2m
FY2022	$13.1m	+59.9%‡	$(0.70)	$(0.70)†	Nil	$20.6m
FY2023	$12.0m	−8.3%	$(0.57)	$(0.57)†	Nil	$9.9m
FY2024	$10.8m	−10.1%	$(1.09)	$(0.29)	Nil	$0m (notes repaid)
FY2025	$7.09m	−34.3%	$(0.70)	$(0.16)	Nil	$0m

† Rigetti did not report a non-GAAP EPS figure for FY2021 to FY2023, so the GAAP figure is repeated in those rows. ‡ FY2021 covers 11 months (1 Feb to 31 Dec 2021) after Rigetti changed its fiscal year end, so FY2022 growth is measured against a shorter period.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$5.14m	$(0.05)	$(0.16)
Q1 2026	$4.40m	$(0.04)	$(0.06) diluted; $0.10 basic because of a $53.7m warrant gain
Q4 2025	$1.87m	$(0.03)	$(0.06)
Q3 2025	$1.95m	$(0.03)	$(0.62), including a $182.0m warrant loss
Q2 2025	$1.80m	$(0.04)	$(0.13)
Q1 2025	$1.47m	Data not available	$0.13, driven by a warrant and earn-out gain
FY2025 total	$7.09m	$(0.16)	$(0.70)

Cash flow, FY2025 (Form 10-K):

• Operating cash flow: −$58.5m
• Capital expenditure: $18.7m
• Depreciation: $8.2m

Trailing twelve months to 30 Jun 2026 (FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026):

• Operating cash flow: −$60.7m
• Capital expenditure: $26.9m
• Free cash flow: about −$87.6m
• Operating loss: $97.2m
• Depreciation: $9.9m

Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026:

• Cash and equivalents of $27.8m, plus $365.9m of current and $147.6m of non-current available-for-sale securities.
• No borrowings.
• Liabilities of $110.8m, of which $78.4m is a non-cash warrant liability.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$4.68bn (9 Oct 2026 close $14.03, ~333.8m shares); ~$4.79bn including the 7.74m Department of Commerce shares
Enterprise value	~$4.14bn (market cap ~$4.68bn + total debt $0 − cash and investments $541.3m, from the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m: trailing net loss of $238.7m (Q3 2025 to Q2 2026). Not meaningful on adjusted earnings either, which are also a loss.
P/E (forward)	n/m: the company has given no earnings guidance and remains loss-making
P/S (TTM)	~351x (market cap ~$4.68bn / TTM revenue $13.35m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	n/m: TTM EBITDA is about −$87.2m (operating loss $97.2m + depreciation $9.9m)
P/FCF	n/m: TTM FCF is about −$87.6m (operating cash flow −$60.7m − capex $26.9m)
52-week high	$58.15 (14 Oct 2025)
52-week low	$12.53
Short interest (% of float)	18.99% (62.36m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	3.8

The $58.15 high drops out of the 52-week window after 14 Oct 2026. Because GAAP earnings and cash flow are negative, price-to-sales and enterprise value against cash are the only multiples that can be calculated here.

7. What Are They Building

Cepheus-1-108Q. This system is built from twelve 9-qubit chiplets. It became generally available on 7 Apr 2026 through QCS, Amazon Braket, Azure Quantum and qBraid. In Aug 2026 the company reported about 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity, about 99.9% single-qubit fidelity and roughly 60ns gates. Lifting fidelity towards the 99.5% target is the main near-term engineering milestone.

Fidelity roadmap. The current scaling target is about 1,000 qubits at ~99.9% two-qubit fidelity with gates under 50ns, over roughly three years from Aug 2026. The Nov 2025 roadmap had aimed for 150+ qubits around end-2026 and 1,000+ around end-2027. The Q2 2026 release did not repeat the 150+ qubit target.

CHIPS-funded R&D. The Commerce agreement funds three projects:

• Miniaturised readout electronics
• A new cryostat architecture
• High-connectivity chip fabrication

These target the wiring and cooling limits that hold back superconducting systems at scale.

On-premises systems. Current system work includes:

• A 108-qubit system for C-DAC in Bengaluru, due for deployment in H2 2026.
• Upgrading the UK NQCC system to 36 qubits with Riverlane error correction.
• Novera QPUs for Japan, Saskatchewan and the NSF-funded TangleLab at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center.
• A plan to invest up to $100m in a UK system of more than 1,000 qubits over three to four years.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (October 2026)	Key 2025 metric
IonQ (IONQ)	~$15.2bn (9 Oct 2026, MarketBeat)	FY2025 revenue $130.0m (+202%); net loss $510.4m; FY2026 guidance $225–245m (IonQ Q4 2025 release)
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)	~$5.39bn (9 Oct 2026, MarketBeat)	FY2025 revenue $24.6m (+179%); gross margin 82.6%; cash $884.5m (D-Wave Q4 2025 release)
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)	~$4.68bn (9 Oct 2026, MarketBeat)	FY2025 revenue $7.09m (−34.3%); $541.3m cash and investments at 30 Jun 2026, no debt
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)	~$1.68bn (9 Oct 2026, MarketBeat)	FY2025 revenue about $0.68m (Zacks summary of Q4 2025 results)
IBM (IBM)	~$213.8bn (9 Oct 2026, MarketBeat)	FY2025 total revenue $67.5bn (IBM Q4 2025 release); does not report quantum separately and is in DARPA QBI Stage B

Among listed quantum pure-plays, Rigetti has the smallest revenue apart from QUBT, but its cash pile is about 12% of its market cap. Commerce’s September 2026 CHIPS round reportedly gave $100m awards to Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantinuum and left out IonQ.

9. Insider Activity

CEO Dr. Subodh Kulkarni sold shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan in September 2026. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026. Several of the sales below are sell-to-cover trades for tax on vesting awards.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Subodh Kulkarni (President & CEO)	09 Sep 2026	Option exercise and sale	120,000 sold (150,000 options exercised at $0.96)	$15.68	~$1.88m	10b5-1 (adopted 10 Jun 2026)
Jeffrey Bertelsen (CFO)	03 Sep 2026	Option exercise and sale	25,000	$15.00	~$0.38m	10b5-1 (adopted 4 Jun 2026)
Andrew Bestwick (CTO)	18 Aug 2026	RSU award	750,000	n/a	n/a (grant)	16 quarterly instalments from 20 Nov 2026
Andrew Bestwick (CTO)	20 Aug 2026	Sale	5,791	$16.81	~$0.10m	Sell-to-cover for tax
Jeffrey Bertelsen (CFO)	20 Aug 2026	Sale	3,860	$16.89	~$0.07m	Sell-to-cover for tax
Ray Johnson (Director)	22 Jun 2026	Sale	84,944	$20.55	~$1.75m	10b5-1
Ray Johnson (Director)	08 Jun 2026	Sale	122,188	$21.28 (avg)	~$2.60m	10b5-1
David Rivas (then CTO, now COO)	29 May 2026	Option exercise and sale	499,328	$25.40	~$12.68m	Discretionary (10b5-1 box not ticked)

David Rivas’ $12.7m sale in late May was the largest insider sale of the year. After it he reported 325,945 shares still held. Kulkarni reported 140,411 shares held directly after his September sale.

10. Key Risks

• Technology execution: The 108-qubit system arrived late and remains below its 99.5% fidelity target, and the 1,000-qubit timeline has already slipped. Further delays would undermine the roadmap that justifies the valuation.
• Customer concentration and lumpy revenue: A few customers make up most of revenue, and system revenue is recognised on acceptance. A delay at one customer, such as the C-DAC 108-qubit acceptance, can move a large share of annual revenue into a different year.
• Cash burn and dilution: Trailing free cash outflow is about $88m. Past funding came from ATM programmes and private placements, the government is now taking 7.74m shares, and the warrants and equity awards add to the share count.
• Government funding conditions: CHIPS tranches depend on milestones and can be clawed back. The government also gets licence and march-in rights over funded IP, and foreign-entity restrictions apply. Rigetti is not part of DARPA QBI Stage B.
• Competition: IBM, Google and the hyperscalers’ quantum programmes, as well as IonQ, D-Wave, Quantinuum and neutral-atom start-ups, all compete for the same research budgets and early enterprise demand.
• Accounting volatility: Warrant fair-value changes moved GAAP results by $182.0m in Q3 2025, $53.7m in Q1 2026 and $29.6m in Q2 2026. This makes reported EPS hard to read and compare.
• Share price volatility: The stock has traded between $12.53 and $58.15 over 52 weeks, and short interest is about 19% of float. Moves of this size are common for speculative quantum stocks.

11. Recent Developments

• 09 Sep 2026 — CEO sells under 10b5-1 plan. Subodh Kulkarni exercised 150,000 options and sold 120,000 shares at about $15.68, roughly $1.88m, under a plan adopted on 10 Jun 2026.
• 08 Sep 2026 — $100m CHIPS definitive agreement. Rigetti signed the Other Transaction Agreement with the Department of Commerce on 4 Sep 2026. It covers up to $100m in three tranches, with $43.9m available first. A securities issuance agreement gives the government 7,739,938 shares.
• 20 Aug 2026 — Director resignation. An 8-K disclosed that director Ray Johnson would leave the board effective 28 Aug 2026, and said the resignation was not due to any disagreement.
• 19 Aug 2026 — Leadership reorganisation. Rigetti set up a Systems Delivery organisation. David Rivas moved from CTO to the new COO role and Andrew Bestwick became CTO, effective 18 Aug 2026.
• 06 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $5.14m (+185% YoY) and gross margin 42.6%. The operating loss was $28.1m and GAAP EPS $(0.16). Cash and investments stood at $541.3m. Management restated a target of about 1,000 qubits at ~99.9% fidelity over roughly three years.
• 27 Jul 2026 — HPE and Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center. The collaboration was expanded: a 9-qubit Novera system will go into the NSF-funded TangleLab hybrid quantum-classical testbed.

12. Key Dates

• Expected Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Not yet confirmed by the company; Q3 2025 was reported on 10 Nov 2025.
• 14 Nov 2026 — Closing date of DARPA’s 2026 QBI programme announcement. DARPA has said more teams may advance later.
• 20 Nov 2026 — First quarterly vesting instalment of CTO Andrew Bestwick’s 750,000-RSU award.
• Expected Dec 2026 — Delivery and acceptance of the C-DAC 108-qubit system in India. The company guided to H2 2026 and expects the revenue in Q4 2026.
• 03 Mar 2027 — Expected expiry of the RGTIW public warrants ($11.50 strike), according to secondary listing data.
• Expected Mar 2027 — FY2026 results and Form 10-K.

The dates for the CHIPS tranche 2 and 3 milestone reviews have not been disclosed. You can follow the share price on ChartsView Live Charts, check macro release dates on the Economic Calendar and discuss the quantum sector on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 October 2026

IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and, after more than ten acquisitions since 2025, also sells quantum networking, quantum-safe security, sensing, satellite and, since closing its purchase of SkyWater Technology on 31 Jul 2026, semiconductor foundry services. Revenue tripled to $130.0m in FY2025 and reached $80.1m in Q2 2026 (+287% YoY), and management now guides to $450–460m for FY2026 including SkyWater. This refresh rebuilds every figure from the FY2025 10-K, the Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings release, and SEC XBRL data. Follow the live price on our Live Charts page and the macro backdrop on the Economic Calendar.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker	NYSE: IONQ
Sector	Technology — quantum computing, networking, sensing, security and semiconductor foundry
Headquarters	College Park, Maryland, USA (founded 2015)
CEO / Leadership	Niccolo de Masi (Chairman & CEO; CEO since 26 Feb 2025, Chairman since Aug 2025); Inder M. Singh (CFO & COO since 4 Sep 2025)
Employees	1,132 (31 Dec 2025, FY2025 10-K; excludes SkyWater, acquired 31 Jul 2026)
Revenue (FY2025)	$130.0m (+201.9% YoY)
Net loss (FY2025)	$(510.4)m attributable to IonQ; GAAP diluted EPS $(1.82)
Revenue (Q2 2026)	$80.1m (+287% YoY); GAAP net loss $(1,867.7)m including a $1,649.1m non-cash warrant charge
Market cap	~$16.2bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $39.89 × ~405.1m shares: 381.0m at 29 Jul 2026 plus 24.1m issued for SkyWater)
Cash and investments	$2,959m at 30 Jun 2026, no debt; company estimates ~$2.0bn pro forma after the SkyWater cash payment
FY2026 guidance	Revenue $450–460m including SkyWater from 31 Jul 2026 (raised 8 Sep 2026)
Dividend	None

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Hypergrowth with rising guidance: Revenue rose 202% to $130.0m in FY2025 and 287% to $80.1m in Q2 2026, and FY2026 guidance has been raised three times since February, most recently to $450–460m including SkyWater.
• Vertical integration through SkyWater: Owning a US foundry lets IonQ make its own electronic qubit-control chips for the Superion line, and the company says chip design cycles have fallen from nine months to two.
• Technical milestones landing early: IonQ reached #AQ 64 on Tempo three months ahead of plan, reported 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity in 2025 and was advanced to Stage C of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative on 7 Oct 2026.
• Debt-free balance sheet: Cash and investments were $2,959m at 30 Jun 2026 with no borrowings, and remaining performance obligations rose to $485m.

Bear Case

• Deepening operating losses: Adjusted EBITDA was $(120.3)m in Q2 2026 and the TTM GAAP operating loss was about $1.0bn, against FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $(330)m to $(310)m.
• Dilution and stock-based pay: Stock-based compensation of $312.0m was 240% of FY2025 revenue, and 2025 acquisitions used $2.54bn of IonQ stock on top of $3.0bn raised in two 2025 equity offerings.
• Acquisition-heavy growth: SkyWater and the other deals change the revenue mix towards foundry and services work, making organic quantum growth harder to track.
• Very high sales multiple: At ~66x TTM revenue the shares price in years of rapid growth, and the stock has fallen more than 50% from its 52-week high.

3. Business Segments

IonQ reports one operating segment and discloses revenue by type of product or service. The table shows the FY2025 split of $130.0m from the 10-K revenue disaggregation note; Q2 2026 was 58% hardware and 42% services.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Quantum hardware	53.8% ($69.9m)	System sales (Forte Enterprise, Tempo, Superion), quantum key distribution hardware from ID Quantique, sensors and optical terminals
Platform, consulting and support services	46.2% ($60.1m)	Cloud access via AWS, Azure and Google Cloud, government R&D contracts, satellite data, consulting and support

By customer location, the US provided 66.9% of FY2025 revenue and Switzerland 12.8%. In Q2 2026 Korea contributed 22%.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. IonQ sells complete quantum systems to governments, universities and companies, and charges for cloud access, consulting and government research contracts. Acquisitions add networking and security hardware (ID Quantique, Lightsynq, Skyloom), satellite radar data (Capella), atomic clocks and sensors (Vector Atomic) and, from 31 Jul 2026, third-party wafer manufacturing (SkyWater).

Technology edge. Trapped-ion qubits are naturally identical and connect all-to-all. The Oxford Ionics electronic qubit control replaces lasers with on-chip electronics, which IonQ says allows the 256-qubit Superion system and a roughly 10,000-qubit design built on cryo-CMOS. The 2030 target is 2m physical and 80,000 logical qubits.

Customers and contracts. Key relationships include a $54.5m Air Force Research Lab contract, a $22m EPB agreement in Chattanooga, a QuantumBasel contract above $60m, KISTI in Korea, and Superion 256 orders from the University of Cambridge, Horizon Quantum and Florida International University. DARPA QBI Stage C is worth up to $300m through 2029, subject to appropriations.

Moat assessment. The moat rests on trapped-ion know-how, patents, a growing installed base and now in-house manufacturing. Quantum computing is still pre-commercial at scale, so the technology lead is not yet proven against superconducting, neutral-atom and photonic rivals.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from IonQ's 10-K filings and Q4 earnings releases, cross-checked against SEC XBRL company facts. IonQ reported no revenue in FY2020, so the FY2021 growth rate is not meaningful.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$2.1m	n/m	$(0.77)	$(0.77)†	$0.00	$0m
FY2022	$11.1m	+430.3%	$(0.25)	$(0.25)†	$0.00	$0m
FY2023	$22.0m	+98.0%	$(0.78)	$(0.78)†	$0.00	$0m
FY2024	$43.1m	+95.4%	$(1.56)	$(0.50)	$0.00	$0m
FY2025	$130.0m	+201.9%	$(1.82)	$(0.60)	$0.00	$0m

† IonQ did not publish an adjusted EPS figure for FY2021–FY2023, so GAAP diluted EPS is repeated. Adjusted EPS for FY2024 and FY2025 is IonQ's own non-GAAP measure, which excludes stock-based compensation, warrant fair-value changes, D&A and acquisition costs. IonQ had no borrowings at any year end from FY2021 to FY2025 or at 30 Jun 2026.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$80.1m	$(0.33)	$(5.08)
Q1 2026	$64.7m	$(0.34)	$2.07
Q4 2025	$61.9m	$(0.20)	$1.93
Q3 2025	$39.9m	$(0.17)	$(3.58)
Q2 2025	$20.7m	$(0.08)	$(0.70)
Q1 2025	$7.6m	Not disclosed‡	$(0.14)
FY2025 total	$130.0m	$(0.60)	$(1.82)

‡ The Q1 2025 release reported adjusted EBITDA but not adjusted EPS. Quarterly GAAP EPS swings between large profits and losses because IonQ marks about 80m private warrants (strikes $99.88 and $155) to market each quarter; the warrant liability was $3,052m at 30 Jun 2026. FY2025 operating cash flow was $(283.2)m, capital expenditure was $16.4m and D&A was $82.0m. At 30 Jun 2026 IonQ held $1,235.7m of cash, $883.2m of short-term and $840.4m of long-term investments.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$16.2bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $39.89 × ~405.1m shares)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m — TTM GAAP diluted EPS is about $(4.66) (Q3 2025 $(3.58) + Q4 2025 $1.93 + Q1 2026 $2.07 + Q2 2026 $(5.08)), dominated by warrant revaluations. TTM adjusted EPS of about $(1.04) is also negative.
P/E (forward)	n/m — losses expected in FY2026 (adjusted EBITDA guidance $(330)m to $(310)m)
P/S (TTM)	~66x (market cap ~$16.2bn / TTM revenue $246.5m; TTM = Q3 2025 $39.9m + Q4 2025 $61.9m + Q1 2026 $64.7m + Q2 2026 $80.1m)
P/FCF	n/m — FCF is negative: FY2025 FCF ~$(299.6)m = operating CF $(283.2)m − capex $16.4m per FY2025 cash flow statement; TTM FCF to Q2 2026 ~$(483.9)m
Enterprise value	~$13.2bn (market cap ~$16.2bn + total debt $0 − cash and investments ~$2.96bn per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet). Using the company's ~$2.0bn pro forma cash after the SkyWater payment, EV is ~$14.2bn.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	n/m — EBITDA is negative: TTM operating loss $(1,006.2)m + TTM D&A $154.0m (cash flow statement) = ~$(852)m
52-week high	$84.64 (13 Oct 2025)
52-week low	$25.89 (30 Mar 2026)
Short interest (% of float)	10.68% (40.49m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	~2.2 (on 24.49m average daily volume)

7. What Are They Building

• Superion systems: Launched at the 8 Sep 2026 Investor Day. Superion 256 uses electronic qubit control on chips made at SkyWater, with customer deliveries planned for 2027. Superion 10K, about 10,000 qubits on cryo-CMOS, is in development.
• Fault tolerance: IonQ targets a lab demonstration of fault tolerance in 2027 and a manufacturable commercial system in 2028. It published its "Walking Cat" architecture in April 2026 and a real-time error-correction decoder on 22 Sep 2026.
• Quantum networking: On 9 Oct 2026 IonQ reported a quantum memory-enhanced photonic interconnect with entanglement rates above 1 kHz, a building block for linking processors.
• Foundry: SkyWater Quantum Solutions, a merchant foundry service launched on 8 Sep 2026, signed Qolab as its first external customer. Sites are in Bloomington (Minnesota), Kissimmee (Florida) and Austin (Texas), alongside IonQ's Bothell, Washington system plant.
• Space and security: Skyloom had 84 optical terminals on orbit by 24 Aug 2026, and ID Quantique supplies quantum key distribution products for secure networks.
• AI and HPC: IonQ is supplying a QPU to NVIDIA's accelerated quantum research centre (23 Sep 2026) and is working with ORNL on hybrid AI optimisation.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Quantinuum (QNT)	~$10.9bn (8 Oct 2026, CNBC)	Revenue $30.9m, net loss $192.6m (S-1 filed May 2026); IPO on Nasdaq 4 Jun 2026
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)	~$5.4bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $14.57)	Revenue $24.6m (+178.5%), per D-Wave FY2025 release
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)	~$4.7bn (9 Oct 2026 close of $14.03)	Revenue $7.1m, down from $10.8m, per Rigetti FY2025 results
Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT)	~$1.7bn (9 Oct 2026, Morningstar)	Revenue about $0.68m, per FY2025 results
IBM (IBM)	~$214bn (9 Oct 2026)	Total revenue $67.5bn; cumulative quantum book of business approaching $1bn since 2017; also in DARPA QBI Stage C
Alphabet (GOOGL)	~$4.30trn (9 Oct 2026)	105-qubit Willow chip ran the "Quantum Echoes" algorithm about 13,000x faster than a supercomputer (Nature, 22 Oct 2025)
IonQ (IONQ)	~$16.2bn (9 Oct 2026)	Revenue $130.0m (+201.9%); RPO $370m at year end

9. Insider Activity

Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi held about 1.12m shares after RSU tax withholding on 11 Sep 2026; the 2026 Form 4s reviewed for him show only tax-withholding transactions. Most recent filings are tax withholding on vesting awards and small director sales. Director W. Teuber bought shares in February 2026. Recent Form 4 filings:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Niccolo de Masi (Chairman & CEO)	11 Sep 2026	Tax withholding (F)	16,121	$37.09	~$598k	RSU vesting
Inder M. Singh (CFO & COO)	11 Sep 2026	Tax withholding (F)	6,272	$37.09	~$233k	RSU vesting
John W. Raymond (Director)	10 Sep 2026	Sale	2,407	$37.21	~$89.6k	10b5-1
John W. Raymond (Director)	18 Jun 2026	Sale	3,815	$55.01	~$209.9k	10b5-1
G. Toledano (Director)	18 Jun 2026	Sale	2,757	$55.01	~$151.7k	Not stated
K. Chou (Director)	18 Jun 2026	Sale	2,757	$55.02	~$151.7k	Not stated
R. Cardillo (Exec. Chair, IonQ Federal)	06 May 2026	Option exercise and sale	3,773	$49.90	~$188.3k	Not stated
W. Teuber (Director)	27 Feb 2026	Purchase	3,000	$38.38	~$115.2k	Open market

10. Key Risks

• Cash burn and continuing losses: Operating cash outflow was $(254.8)m in H1 2026 and the accumulated deficit was $1,194.1m at 31 Dec 2025. Cash fell to about $2.0bn pro forma after paying for SkyWater.
• Acquisition integration: IonQ closed six deals in 2025 and four more in 2026, including the ~$1.8bn SkyWater purchase, which brings capital-intensive foundry operations into the group.
• Warrant-driven earnings volatility: About 80m private warrants are marked to market each quarter, producing GAAP swings such as the $1,649.1m Q2 2026 charge.
• Dilution: Equity issuance, stock-funded acquisitions and $312.0m of FY2025 stock-based compensation steadily increase the share count.
• Technology and competition: IonQ has not yet built a scalable fault-tolerant machine, and rivals using superconducting, neutral-atom and photonic qubits, including IBM, Google and Quantinuum, are well funded.
• Government dependence: Contracts such as AFRL and DARPA QBI can be terminated for convenience and depend on appropriations.

11. Recent Developments

• 09 Oct 2026 — Quantum memory interconnect. IonQ reported a world-first quantum memory-enhanced photonic interconnect with entanglement above 1 kHz.
• 07 Oct 2026 — DARPA QBI Stage C. IonQ was advanced to the final stage of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, worth up to $300m through 2029. The shares fell 4.5% that day.
• 24 Sep 2026 — Florida International University order. FIU selected a Superion 256 system, and IonQ showed a radar change-detection demonstration.
• 23 Sep 2026 — NVIDIA research centre. IonQ will supply a QPU to NVIDIA's accelerated quantum research centre.
• 22 Sep 2026 — Real-time decoder. IonQ unveiled a real-time quantum error-correction decoder.
• 10 Sep 2026 — Nexus Photonics completed. IonQ announced completion of the Nexus Photonics acquisition to secure photonic component manufacturing.
• 08 Sep 2026 — Investor Day. IonQ launched the Superion roadmap and SkyWater Quantum Solutions, and raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $450–460m including SkyWater.
• 25 Aug 2026 — Board additions. Dr Eric Ball and former SkyWater chairman Timothy Baxter joined the board.
• 05 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 287% to $80.1m, adjusted EPS was $(0.33) and standalone FY2026 guidance rose to $280–290m.
• 31 Jul 2026 — SkyWater closes. IonQ completed its ~$1.8bn acquisition of SkyWater Technology for $741.3m cash and 24.1m shares.

12. Key Dates

• Expected 4 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results, the first quarter including SkyWater (date not yet confirmed by IonQ; Q3 2025 was reported on 5 Nov 2025)
• 31 Dec 2026 — FY2026 year end, against revenue guidance of $450–460m
• Expected 2027 — First Superion 256 customer deliveries and a lab demonstration of fault tolerance
• Expected Jun 2027 — Annual meeting (the 2026 meeting was held on 16 Jun 2026)
• Expected 2028 — Manufacturable fault-tolerant commercial system, per the Investor Day roadmap

Discuss IonQ and other quantum stocks on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 07 Oct 2026

The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) runs a self-service, cloud-based platform that advertising agencies and brands use to buy digital ads programmatically across connected TV (CTV), online video, mobile, display, audio and digital out-of-home. It works on the buy side only and does not own media, positioning itself as the independent alternative to the “walled gardens” of Google, Amazon and Meta. Clients paid for $13.4bn of advertising through the platform in 2025, and The Trade Desk earns a fee on that spend. It reports a single operating segment.

FY2025 revenue was $2,896.3m, up 18%, with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.90 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.77. Growth has since collapsed: Q2 2026 revenue rose only 3% to $715.1m, below the company's own guidance of at least $750m, and Q3 2026 guidance of at least $650m implies a year-on-year decline of about 12% from $739.4m. The shares closed at $11.92 on 06 Oct 2026, down about 77% over 52 weeks, giving a market value of about $5.6bn. The company cut about 15% of its workforce on 03 Sep 2026 and left the S&P 500 on 21 Sep 2026.

This refresh draws on The Trade Desk's quarterly press releases (SEC 8-K exhibits), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, the Sep 2026 special meeting proxy, SEC XBRL company facts and Form 4 filings, retrieved on 07 Oct 2026. It replaces the version published on 24 May 2026. Follow the price on ChartsView Live Charts.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Full name	The Trade Desk, Inc.
Ticker	TTD (NASDAQ)
Sector	Technology: advertising technology (demand-side platform for programmatic advertising)
CEO / Leadership	Jeff Green (Co-founder, Chairman and CEO); Nate Olmstead (CFO since 09 Jul 2026); Tahnil Davis (Chief Accounting Officer); Anders Mortensen (Chief Revenue Officer); Kristi Argyilan (Chief Commercial Officer)
Market cap	~$5.6bn (469.9m Class A and B shares × $11.92 at the 06 Oct 2026 close)
Revenue (FY2025)	$2,896.3m (+18% YoY)
Net income (FY2025)	$443.3m GAAP; GAAP diluted EPS $0.90; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.77
Employees	3,843 full-time in 21 countries at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 Form 10-K), before a cut of about 575 roles (~15%) announced on 03 Sep 2026
Scale	$13.4bn of gross spend on the platform in 2025; adjusted EBITDA $1,196.4m (41% margin)
Fiscal year	Calendar year (ends 31 December)
Dividend	None

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Distilled from the full report below. Factual only, no ratings.

Bull Case

• Still highly profitable and cash generative: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow to 30 Jun 2026 was about $863m and FY2025 adjusted EBITDA $1,196.4m, against a market value of about $5.6bn.
• Debt-free balance sheet: Cash and short-term investments were $1,485.4m at 30 Jun 2026, with no borrowings.
• CEO bought heavily: Jeff Green bought 6.0m shares on the open market for about $148m on 02–04 Mar 2026 at $23.49–25.08 a share.
• CTV and international growth: CTV and video make up the low-50s per cent of spend, and EMEA and Asia-Pacific CTV each grew more than 50% in Q2 2026. International revenue rose to about 17% of the total.
• Google ad tech left intact: On 02 Sep 2026 the US court declined to break up Google's ad tech business, keeping the open-web market The Trade Desk relies on in its current shape.

Bear Case

• Revenue now expected to fall: Q3 2026 guidance of at least $650m implies about a 12% decline from $739.4m, after growth of 3% in Q2 and 25% in Q1 2025.
• Amazon DSP price pressure: Amazon's demand-side platform reportedly charges about 1% on open-web buys, against The Trade Desk's take rate of roughly 15–20%, and has been winning agency budgets.
• Margin compression: Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of about $160m implies a margin near 25%, down from 43% a year earlier.
• Leadership churn: Nate Olmstead is the fourth CFO in about 14 months, and the company is asking shareholders on 19 Oct 2026 to approve repricing of underwater options.
• Apple blocking its domains: Since late Sep 2026, Safari on iOS 27 has blocked The Trade Desk's ad-delivery domain and its UID2 identity domain; the issue was still open on 05 Oct 2026.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

The Trade Desk's software lets agencies and brands plan, buy, measure and optimise advertising campaigns across thousands of publishers and channels from a single interface. Its AI system, Kokai, values each ad impression in real time and bids on behalf of the advertiser. Around this it has built OpenPath (direct connections to publishers), Unified ID 2.0 (an identity framework to replace third-party cookies), Ventura (a TV operating system), Deal Desk, OpenAds and, from 2026, Koa AI agents.

The Trade Desk reports one operating segment. The disclosed revenue categories are by geography:

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
United States	85.5% ($2,476.7m, FY2025)	Agencies and brands buying US media, including most of the CTV spend; about 83% of revenue in Q2 2026
International	14.5% ($419.6m, FY2025)	Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Latin America; about 17% of revenue in Q2 2026, with EMEA and APAC CTV each growing more than 50%

Source: FY2025 Form 10-K geographic note and Q2 2026 earnings call. By channel, Q2 2026 spend was video including CTV in the low-50s per cent, mobile high-20s per cent, display low double digits and audio about 7%. By vertical, 2025 spend was led by food and drink (18%), medical health (14%) and automotive (13%).

4. The Business Model

How it makes money. The Trade Desk takes a platform fee, a percentage of the advertising its clients buy, plus fees for data and add-on features. Revenue is reported net of the media cost, so it equals roughly 20% of gross spend. Clients are mostly the large advertising agency holding companies and, increasingly, brands that sign joint business plans directly; 217 clients had such plans in Q2 2026, up 38%. The company carries no inventory and owns no media, so costs are mainly people and data-centre capacity.

Where the moat sits. Its advantages are:

• scale on the open internet: $13.4bn of spend in 2025 gives Kokai a large data set for bidding;
• independence: unlike Google or Amazon it does not sell its own media, which matters to agencies and to publishers using OpenPath;
• deep integration with agency workflows and data partners;
• industry adoption of UID2 as a cookie alternative.

The events of 2026 show these advantages are weaker than they looked: Amazon's DSP has won budgets on price, and Apple's Safari block hits the identity layer directly.

What changed in 2025–2026. Growth slowed from 25% in Q1 2025 to 3% in Q2 2026. The company missed its own guidance in Q2 2026, cut about 15% of staff, appointed a new CFO, CMO, Chief Commercial Officer and Chief Business Development Officer, and dropped from the S&P 500 to the S&P SmallCap 600. In Sep 2025 shareholders voted to extend Jeff Green's dual-class control from Dec 2025 to Dec 2035.

5. Financial Health

Sources: The Trade Desk quarterly and annual press releases (SEC 8-K exhibits), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC XBRL company facts (data.sec.gov) for revenue, GAAP EPS, cash flow, D&A and operating income. All per-share figures are after the 10-for-1 split of 17 Jun 2021.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$1,196.5m	+43.1%	$0.28	$0.91	$0.00	$0m (Nil)
FY2022	$1,577.8m	+31.9%	$0.11	$1.04	$0.00	$0m (Nil)
FY2023	$1,946.1m	+23.3%	$0.36	$1.26	$0.00	$0m (Nil)
FY2024	$2,444.8m	+25.6%	$0.78	$1.66	$0.00	$0m (Nil)
FY2025	$2,896.3m	+18.5%	$0.90	$1.77	$0.00	$0m (Nil)

Notes on the annual table:

• Adjusted EPS is The Trade Desk's non-GAAP diluted EPS as reported. It excludes stock-based compensation and related tax effects.
• The Trade Desk has had no borrowings in this period; it has an undrawn revolving credit facility. FY2021 growth is measured against 2020 revenue of $836.0m.

Quarterly results (most recent first)

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$715.1m	$0.34	$0.14
Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026)	$688.9m	$0.28	$0.08
Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025)	$846.8m	$0.59	$0.39
Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)	$739.4m	$0.45	$0.23
Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$694.0m	$0.41	$0.18
Q1 2025 (to 31 Mar 2025)	$616.0m	$0.33	$0.10
FY2025 total	$2,896.3m	$1.77	$0.90

Notes on the quarterly table:

• Q2 2026 in more detail: revenue +3% YoY; GAAP operating income $101.6m; net income $64.4m; adjusted EBITDA $241.3m (34% margin). Guidance had been revenue of at least $750m and adjusted EBITDA of about $260m. Results were released on 06 Aug 2026.
• Q1 2026 beat its guidance of at least $678m revenue and about $195m adjusted EBITDA, with adjusted EBITDA of $206.1m.
• Quarterly non-GAAP EPS sum to $1.78 against the reported $1.77 for the year because the share count changes.

Cash flow and balance sheet.

• Cash flow (FY2025).
  • Operating cash flow was $992.7m and purchases of property and equipment $197.0m, giving free cash flow of $795.7m (27% of revenue). Capitalised software of a further $12.8m would bring it to $783.0m.
  • D&A in the cash flow statement was $115.8m (XBRL DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization) and GAAP operating income $589.3m.
  • First half of 2026: operating cash flow $545.4m, capex $126.0m.
• Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026.
  • Cash and equivalents $1,123.0m plus short-term investments $362.4m, a total of $1,485.4m.
  • No debt. Non-current operating lease liabilities were $353.2m.
• Buybacks. About $1.4bn was spent in FY2025 at an average of $52.60 a share. $164m was spent in Q1 2026 and $78m in Q2 2026, leaving $269m authorised at 30 Jun 2026.
• Q3 2026 guidance (06 Aug 2026): revenue of at least $650m and adjusted EBITDA of about $160m. Restructuring announced on 03 Sep 2026 is expected to cost $39–51m in cash.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$5.6bn (426.8m Class A + 43.1m Class B shares outstanding at 31 Jul 2026 × $11.92 at the 06 Oct 2026 close; StockAnalysis shows $5.64bn)
Enterprise value	~$4.1bn = market cap ~$5.60bn + total debt $0 − cash and short-term investments ~$1.49bn ($1,123.0m + $362.4m), per the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet. Operating leases are excluded.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~14.2x ($11.92 / trailing twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $0.84 to 30 Jun 2026). On trailing non-GAAP EPS of $1.65 the multiple is ~7.2x.
P/E (forward)	~12.9x (StockAnalysis, based on consensus estimates; The Trade Desk does not give EPS guidance)
P/S (TTM)	~1.9x (market cap / trailing twelve-month revenue of $2,990.1m to 30 Jun 2026)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~5.8x (EV ~$4.1bn / EBITDA ~$713m). EBITDA = trailing GAAP operating income $586.3m + D&A $126.7m (cash-flow statement figure, the wider XBRL DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization total). Q3 2026 guidance points to a lower run rate.
P/FCF	~6.5x (market cap ~$5.60bn / trailing twelve-month FCF ~$863m). FCF = operating cash flow $1,081.7m − capex $218.6m. On FY2025 alone, FCF was $795.7m ($992.7m − $197.0m).
52-week high	$56.39 (StockAnalysis)
52-week low	$11.74 (StockAnalysis)
Short interest (% of float)	21.27% (88.53m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat; StockAnalysis shows 21.12%)
Days to cover	4.8 (MarketBeat, 15 Sep 2026; StockAnalysis shows 5.05)
Dividend yield	Nil (no dividend)

Price-based metrics use the 06 Oct 2026 close. Trailing twelve-month figures are FY2025 minus the first half of 2025 plus the first half of 2026, from SEC XBRL data. For live prices see ChartsView Live Charts.

7. What Are They Building

AI buying.

• Kokai “Zuma” release: Launched on 27 Aug 2026 with Koa agentic AI agents. The company says Koa cut cost per acquisition by 32% across 62 campaigns.
• Koa Agents: First announced in Q1 2026 with Stagwell, the agents automate campaign set-up and optimisation for agencies.

Supply and identity. OpenPath connects advertisers directly to publishers; Xumo became the first CTV publisher to integrate it through FreeWheel in Q1 2026. OpenAds, an open-source auction, counts The Guardian, Hearst and BuzzFeed among early publishers. Netflix and Samsung Ads were added as supply partners in Q2 2026. UID2 remains the company's identity framework, now challenged by the Safari block.

Television. Ventura is a TV operating system for smart-TV makers; DIRECTV plans a custom version, and the Ventura ecosystem with VIDAA and Nexxen launched on 24 Feb 2026.

Measurement and data. On 15 Sep 2026 The Trade Desk expanded healthcare measurement integrations with Veeva Crossix and IQVIA, and a new measurement framework is in alpha testing. Deal Desk, announced in Jun 2025, manages negotiated deals with publishers.

8. Competitive Landscape

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Alphabet (GOOGL)	~$4.25tn	Q4 2025 Google advertising revenue $82.3bn; Google Network revenue $7.83bn, down from $7.95bn (Alphabet Q4 2025 earnings release)
Amazon (AMZN)	~$2.76tn	FY2025 advertising services revenue $68.6bn; Q4 2025 $21.3bn (+23%) (Marketing Dive)
AppLovin (APP)	~$93.3bn	FY2025 revenue $5.48bn (+70%); adjusted EBITDA $4.51bn (82% margin) (AppLovin release, 11 Feb 2026)
Magnite (MGNI)	~$3.6bn	FY2025 CTV contribution ex-TAC $304.2m (+17%), 45% of the total (Magnite FY2025 results)

Market caps are at the 06–07 Oct 2026 close from StockAnalysis statistics pages. Key metrics are the latest full-year figures available in Oct 2026.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Jeff Green co-founded The Trade Desk in 2009 and is Chairman and CEO. Through his Class B shares, which carry 10 votes each, holders of Class B stock controlled about 49.9% of the vote at 31 Dec 2025, and in Sep 2025 shareholders extended the dual-class structure to 22 Dec 2035. Nate Olmstead became CFO on 09 Jul 2026, after Alex Kayyal's departure was announced on 26 Jan 2026 and Tahnil Davis served as interim CFO. The largest insider transaction of 2026 was Green's open-market purchase.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Jay Grant (Chief Legal Officer)	15 Aug 2026	Disposal (likely tax withholding)	13,355	Data not available	Data not available	Not verified
Samantha Jacobson (director)	28 May 2026	Sale	53,681	$21.14	~$1.13m	Not verified
Kathryn Falberg (director)	05 Mar 2026	Sale	152,828	$30.46	~$4.66m	Not verified
Jeff Green (CEO, via limited partnership)	04 Mar 2026	Purchase (four lots, 02–04 Mar 2026)	6,000,000	$23.49–25.08	~$148.1m	Open market, no 10b5-1 plan indicated

Sources: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR, listed via OpenInsider. Green's purchase was made in four price lots: 527,324 shares at $23.49, 1,472,676 at $24.16, 1,685,696 at $24.97 and 2,314,304 at $25.08. On 03 Mar 2026 he was also granted 398,089 restricted shares and 737,028 options with a $25 strike. Directors received routine stock grants in Aug 2026. No open-market insider purchases were found for Aug–Oct 2026.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Revenue decline (Operational): Q3 2026 guidance implies revenue down about 12% year on year, after Q2 2026 missed the company's own guidance. Management blamed weakness in consumer packaged goods and auto, together about 25% of spend, as well as its own execution.
• Amazon and the walled gardens (Competitive): Amazon's DSP reportedly charges about 1% on open-web purchases, and industry data cited by ppc.land show its share of tracked programmatic spend nearly doubling in about 15 months. The Trade Desk is reported to be offering fee discounts of 1–2 points, which would cut its take rate.
• Apple and privacy (Regulatory): Safari on iOS 27 blocks the adsrvr.org ad-delivery domain and the UID2 domain. If not resolved, this would hurt targeting and measurement on Apple devices.
• Leadership and governance (Governance): Four CFOs in about 14 months, a 15% workforce cut, an option repricing vote on 19 Oct 2026 and dual-class control extended to 2035 limit outside shareholders' influence.
• Securities litigation (Legal): A class action in the Central District of California (case 25-cv-01396) alleges misstatements about Kokai between 15 Nov 2023 and 08 Aug 2025. The motion to dismiss was denied on 17 Mar 2026 and the case is in discovery.
• Concentration (Financial): About 83–86% of revenue comes from the US, and a few large agency holding companies place a large share of spend. Budget shifts by a single holding company can move results.

11. Recent Developments

• 05 Oct 2026 — Safari issue still open. Apple asked The Trade Desk to test an iOS 27.2 beta, but the bug report on the blocking of its ad and UID2 domains remained open.
• 21 Sep 2026 — Leaves the S&P 500. The shares moved to the S&P SmallCap 600, with Illumina taking the S&P 500 place, as announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices on 04 Sep 2026.
• 18 Sep 2026 — Option repricing proxy. The company filed its proxy for a special meeting on 19 Oct 2026 to reprice up to 15.58m underwater options held by employees and executive officers.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Healthcare measurement. Integrations with Veeva Crossix and IQVIA were expanded.
• 03 Sep 2026 — Workforce cut of about 15%. An 8-K disclosed a reduction of about 575 roles, mostly completed in Q3 2026, with cash charges of $39–51m. The shares closed down 4.4% at $14.43 the next day.
• 02 Sep 2026 — Google remedy ruling. The court rejected a break-up of Google's ad tech business and imposed behavioural remedies instead.
• 27 Aug 2026 — Kokai Zuma release. A new Kokai release added Koa agentic AI agents.
• 06 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results miss. Revenue rose 3% to $715.1m, below guidance of at least $750m, and Q3 guidance implied a 12% decline. The shares fell about 24% after hours to $13.39.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 19 Oct 2026 — Special meeting of stockholders at 1:00pm PT to vote on the option repricing (record date 14 Sep 2026).
• Expected 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results after the US close. The date is a market-calendar estimate and the company has not confirmed it; last year it announced the date in mid-October. Guidance is revenue of at least $650m and adjusted EBITDA of about $160m.
• 31 Dec 2026 — FY2026 year-end.
• Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and FY2026 results; FY2025 results were released in Feb 2026.

Macro events are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and you can discuss The Trade Desk on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 8 Oct 2026

Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ: OKTA) is the largest independent identity provider, selling cloud software that controls who and what can sign in to applications — employees, customers and, increasingly, AI agents. Fiscal 2026 (year to 31 January 2026) was the company's first full year of meaningful GAAP profitability: revenue rose 12% to $2,919 million, GAAP operating income reached $149 million and net income $235 million. The second quarter of fiscal 2027 then delivered an 11% revenue increase to $805 million, a raised full-year outlook and a sharp re-rating of the shares. This refreshed report covers Okta's business model, five-year financial record, valuation, product roadmap, competitive position, insider activity and risks, using figures drawn from the company's own filings and press releases.

1. Company Snapshot

Okta was founded in San Francisco in 2009 by Todd McKinnon and Frederic Kerrest and listed on Nasdaq in April 2017. It acquired the developer-focused identity platform Auth0 in May 2021, which now forms the core of its Customer Identity business. The fiscal year ends on 31 January, so “fiscal 2027” is the twelve months to 31 January 2027.

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	OKTA / Nasdaq
Sector	Technology — identity and access management software
Headquarters	San Francisco, California
Founded / Listed	2009 / IPO 7 Apr 2017
CEO / Leadership	Todd McKinnon (Co-founder & Chief Executive Officer); Brett Tighe (CFO); Eric Kelleher (President & COO)
Employees	6,366 (31 Jan 2026, FY2026 10-K); about 6,570 at 31 Jul 2026 per company commentary
Market cap	~$38.1bn (174.8m shares at $218.00 close, 7 Oct 2026)
FY2026 Revenue	$2,919m (+12%)
FY2026 GAAP net income	$235m (diluted EPS $1.31)
Customers	More than 20,000; 5,255 with annual contract value above $100k (Q2 FY2027)
Remaining performance obligations	$4,858m (+17%), 31 Jul 2026
52-week range	$62.66 – $226.44

2. Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

• Profitability has turned decisively: GAAP operating income moved from a $768m loss in FY2022 to a $149m profit in FY2026, and Q2 FY2027 GAAP operating margin reached 13% with non-GAAP operating margin of 28%.
• Cash generation funds buybacks and a clean balance sheet: trailing free cash flow is roughly $960m, the last $350m of convertible notes was repaid in June 2026, and a $1bn buyback (authorised 5 Jan 2026) had $555m remaining at 31 Jul 2026.
• Forward indicators are accelerating: RPO grew 17% to $4.86bn and current RPO 14% to $2.59bn in Q2 FY2027, ahead of 11% revenue growth, and customers above $1m ACV rose 22% to 605.
• AI-agent identity is a new demand vector: Okta for AI Agents is generally available, Cross App Access added 25+ integrations and Agent SSO launched at Oktane 2026 — positioning Okta as the neutral control plane for non-human identities.
• Guidance raised twice in two quarters: FY2027 revenue guidance now stands at $3.216–3.226bn and non-GAAP EPS at $3.90–3.94, up from $3.74–3.82 in March.

Bear Case

• Growth is still decelerating: revenue growth slowed from 56% in FY2022 to 12% in FY2026, and Q3 FY2027 guidance implies about 10%, with net retention of only 107%.
• Bundled competition from Microsoft: Entra ID is included in Microsoft 365 enterprise licences and is adding agent-identity controls of its own, pressuring Okta's pricing in workforce identity.
• Valuation now prices in success: after rising from a low of $62.66 to above $218, the shares trade on ~131x trailing GAAP EPS and ~40x trailing free cash flow.
• Heavy insider selling into the rally: the CEO, CFO, COO and Chief Legal Officer sold more than $45m of stock between June and September 2026, mostly under 10b5-1 plans.

3. Business Segments

Okta reports as a single operating segment. The table below uses the revenue categories it discloses. By annual contract value (ACV), Workforce Identity accounted for 59% and Customer Identity (Auth0) for 41% in Q2 FY2027, growing 11% and 13% respectively. Geographically, the United States produced about $2,321m (roughly 80%) of FY2026 revenue and international markets about $598m (roughly 20%).

Segment / category	% of FY2026 revenue	What it is
Subscription	~97.8% ($2,855m)	Recurring SaaS fees for Workforce Identity (single sign-on, adaptive MFA, Universal Directory, Workflows, Identity Governance, Privileged Access, Identity Threat Protection) and Customer Identity (Auth0, Okta Customer Identity, Fine Grained Authorization), plus AI-agent identity products.
Professional services & other	~2.2% ($64m)	Implementation, training and consulting services; Okta is moving most service delivery to channel partners, which management says creates about a one-point revenue headwind in FY2027.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Okta sells multi-year subscriptions priced per user (for workforce) or per monthly active user (for customer identity), with add-on modules such as Identity Governance and Privileged Access sold into the installed base. Subscription revenue was $793m of the $805m Q2 FY2027 total, giving very high revenue visibility, and the $4.86bn RPO backlog covers well over a year of revenue.

Integration network. The Okta Integration Network contains more than 7,000 pre-built connectors to SaaS and on-premise applications. Each new integration makes Okta more useful to every customer and harder for a rival to replicate quickly.

Switching costs. Identity sits underneath every application login in an organisation. Replacing it means re-wiring authentication across hundreds of apps and retraining users — a disruptive, risky project that most IT teams avoid once Okta is embedded.

Neutrality. Okta's pitch is that it is the independent identity layer that works equally well across Microsoft, Google, AWS and thousands of SaaS vendors. That neutrality matters more as AI agents need to act across many vendors' systems, and it underpins initiatives such as the Cross App Access standard and the Blueprint Alliance announced in September 2026.

5. Financial Health

The five-year record shows a company that grew rapidly through the Auth0 acquisition, then traded growth for margin. Revenue growth halved between FY2023 and FY2026, but GAAP EPS swung from a $5.73 loss to a $1.31 profit and the convertible debt pile was retired.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	$1,300m	+55.7%	($5.73)	($0.46)	$0.00	$1,816m
FY2023	$1,858m	+42.9%	($5.16)	($0.04)	$0.00	$2,193m
FY2024	$2,263m	+21.8%	($2.17)	$1.60	$0.00	$1,154m
FY2025	$2,610m	+15.3%	$0.06	$2.81	$0.00	$349m
FY2026	$2,919m	+11.8%	$1.31	$3.50	$0.00	$0m†

Fiscal years end 31 January (FY2026 = year to 31 Jan 2026). Adjusted EPS is Okta's non-GAAP diluted EPS, which excludes stock-based compensation, acquisition-related amortisation and other items; from FY2027 the company uses a 21% non-GAAP tax rate, down from 26%. Long-term debt is the non-current carrying value of convertible senior notes per SEC XBRL filings; FY2023 is higher than FY2022 because an accounting change (ASU 2020-06) removed the equity component discount. †At 31 Jan 2026 the remaining $350m of 2026 notes was classified as current; it was repaid in cash in June 2026, leaving no convertible debt outstanding. Okta has never paid a dividend.

Quarter / Half	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 FY2027 (to 31 Jul 2026)	$805m (+11%)	$1.05	$0.65
Q1 FY2027 (to 30 Apr 2026)	$765m (+11%)	$0.91	$0.42
Q4 FY2026 (to 31 Jan 2026)	$761m (+11%)	$0.90	$0.35
Q3 FY2026 (to 31 Oct 2025)	$742m (+12%)	$0.82	$0.24
Q2 FY2026 (to 31 Jul 2025)	$728m	$0.91	$0.37
Q1 FY2026 (to 30 Apr 2025)	$688m	$0.87‡	$0.35
FY2026 total	$2,919m	$3.50	$1.31

‡Q1 FY2026 adjusted EPS derived as the FY2026 total ($3.50) less the three later quarters. Quarterly EPS may not sum exactly to the annual figure because of share-count changes. Q2 FY2027 free cash flow was $227m (28% margin) and operating cash flow $234m; cash and short-term investments totalled $2,299m at 31 Jul 2026. For Q3 FY2027 management guided to revenue of $813–817m and non-GAAP EPS of $0.92–0.94.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$38.1bn (174.8m shares at $218.00 close, 7 Oct 2026)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~131x ($218.00 / LTM GAAP diluted EPS $1.66 = FY2026 $1.31 − H1 FY2026 $0.72 + H1 FY2027 $1.07). On LTM non-GAAP EPS of $3.68 the multiple is ~59x.
P/E (forward)	~56x ($218.00 / $3.92, the midpoint of management's FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $3.90–3.94)
P/S (TTM)	~12.4x (market cap ~$38.1bn / LTM revenue $3,073m = FY2026 $2,919m − H1 FY2026 $1,416m + H1 FY2027 $1,570m)
P/FCF	~40x (market cap ~$38.1bn / LTM FCF ~$961m; FCF = LTM operating cash flow $987m − capex $8m − capitalised internal-use software $18m, per 10-K and 10-Q cash flow statements)
Enterprise value	~$35.8bn (market cap ~$38.1bn + total debt $0m − cash and short-term investments $2,299m per 31 Jul 2026 balance sheet; operating leases excluded)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~109x (EV ~$35.8bn / LTM EBITDA ~$328m; EBITDA = LTM GAAP operating income $232m + D&A ~$96m, using FY2026 total depreciation $13m plus intangible amortisation $83m as the LTM proxy). GAAP EBITDA is depressed by stock-based compensation, so this multiple is high relative to cash-based measures.
52-week high	$226.44
52-week low	$62.66
Short interest (% of float)	4.92% (8.21m shares, settlement 15 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	2.2 (15 Sep 2026 settlement)

7. What Are They Building

Identity for AI agents. The centrepiece of Okta's roadmap is securing non-human identities. Okta for AI Agents is now generally available for workforce customers, and Auth0 for AI Agents serves developers building agentic applications. At Oktane 2026 (22–24 Sep, Las Vegas) the company launched Agent SSO, built on its Cross App Access standard, at no extra cost, and added more than 25 new Cross App Access integrations. On 22 Sep 2026 Okta and other vendors formed the Blueprint Alliance, an industry reference architecture for securing AI agents.

Security suite expansion. Okta is moving beyond sign-on into adjacent identity security. It bought Axiom Security (privileged access, closed 4 Sep 2025, about $54m) and Permiso Security (identity threat detection and response, agreement 30 Jul 2026, closed 26 Aug 2026). These feed Okta Privileged Access, Identity Threat Protection and Identity Security Posture Management, while Okta Identity Governance remains the largest new-product contributor.

Go-to-market changes. A revamped channel programme announced in September 2026 shifts most implementation work to partners, freeing Okta to focus on software. Management has flagged about a one-point revenue headwind from this in FY2027 but expects better margins. Follow OKTA price action on ChartsView Live Charts.

8. Peer Comparison

Okta competes with platform vendors that bundle identity into wider suites and with specialist identity-security firms. Market caps below were checked in late September and early October 2026.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Microsoft (Entra ID)	~$3.81 trillion (30 Sep 2026)	Fiscal 2026 revenue above $331bn; Entra revenue not disclosed; added Conditional Access and ID Protection for AI agents (Jul–Aug 2026)
Palo Alto Networks (incl. CyberArk)	~$330bn (2 Oct 2026)	Closed ~$25bn CyberArk acquisition 11 Feb 2026; Next-Gen Security ARR $8.1bn (+60%) in fiscal Q3 2026, incl. $1.6bn from CyberArk and Chronosphere
CrowdStrike (Falcon Identity)	~$277bn (early Oct 2026)	Ending ARR $5.25bn (+24%) in Q4 FY2026; identity ARR not separately disclosed
Cisco (Duo)	~$420–435bn (late Sep/early Oct 2026)	Duo named 2026 Gartner Peer Insights Customers’ Choice for user authentication; Duo revenue not disclosed
SailPoint (SAIL)	~$11.2bn (7 Oct 2026)	ARR $1.231bn (+25%) in Q2 FY2027, SaaS ARR +36%
Ping Identity (private, Thoma Bravo)	Private — n/a	Taken private for $2.8bn in 2022 and merged with ForgeRock in 2023; no current figures published

9. Insider Activity

Co-founder and CEO Todd McKinnon remains Okta's largest individual holder, with about 6.5m Class B shares held indirectly through trusts. Form 4 filings show steady selling by senior executives between June and September 2026, largely under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans, as the share price rose sharply. No open-market purchases occurred in the period; the last insider purchase was director David Schellhase buying 3,712 shares at $72.04 on 16 Apr 2026.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Todd McKinnon (CEO)	22 Sep 2026	Sale	48,822	~$193.48 avg	~$9.45m	10b5-1 (adopted 8 Apr 2026)
Eric Kelleher (President & COO)	18 Sep 2026	Sale	6,395	~$183.58	~$1.17m	10b5-1 (adopted 12 Jun 2026)
Eric Kelleher (President & COO)	11 Sep 2026	Sale	2,549	$168.55	~$0.43m	Not confirmed
Brett Tighe (CFO)	2 Sep 2026	Sale (incl. 41,251 converted Class B)	80,000	~$160.97 avg	~$12.88m	10b5-1 (adopted 8 Apr 2026)
Todd McKinnon (CEO)	8 Jul 2026	Sale	68,936	~$146.62 avg	~$10.11m	10b5-1 (adopted 8 Apr 2026)
Larissa Schwartz (Chief Legal Officer)	22 Jun 2026	Sale	2,463	$120.00	~$0.30m	10b5-1 (adopted 3 Jul 2025)
Eric Kelleher (President & COO)	18 Jun 2026	Sale	3,977	$114.10	~$0.45m	Not confirmed
Brett Tighe (CFO)	8 Jun 2026	Sale	65,000	$117.25	~$7.62m	Not confirmed
Larissa Schwartz (Chief Legal Officer)	2 Jun 2026	Sale	24,971	$134.13	~$3.35m	Not confirmed

On the company side, Okta repurchased 1,542,442 shares at an average $81.06 ($125m) in Q2 FY2027 under its $1bn programme. Helen Riley joined the board on 18 Sep 2026.

10. Key Risks

• Competitive bundling (Competitive): Microsoft can include Entra ID in Microsoft 365 licences at little marginal cost, and Palo Alto Networks (with CyberArk) and CrowdStrike are building identity into broad security platforms, which could compress Okta's pricing and win rates.
• Security incidents (Operational): as an identity provider Okta is a high-value target; past breaches in 2022 and 2023 damaged trust, and any new compromise could trigger churn and regulatory scrutiny.
• Growth deceleration (Financial): revenue growth has slowed to about 10–11% and net retention to 107%; if AI-agent products do not reaccelerate demand, the valuation premium could compress.
• Seat-based exposure to headcount (Macro): workforce identity is priced per employee, so hiring freezes or layoffs at customers directly reduce renewal values.
• Execution on acquisitions and channel shift (Operational): integrating Axiom and Permiso and moving services to partners carry execution risk and a known revenue headwind in FY2027.
• Dilution from stock-based compensation (Financial): GAAP profitability remains far below non-GAAP because of heavy stock compensation, which buybacks only partly offset.

11. Recent Developments

• 22 Sep 2026 — Oktane 2026 and AI-agent launches. At its Las Vegas conference Okta launched Agent SSO on the Cross App Access standard, expanded Okta for AI Agents, and co-founded the Blueprint Alliance reference architecture for securing AI agents; an investor summit followed on 23 Sep.
• 22 Sep 2026 — CEO share sale. Todd McKinnon sold 48,822 shares at an average of about $193 under a 10b5-1 plan, following a CFO sale of 80,000 shares on 2 Sep.
• 21 Sep 2026 — Channel programme overhaul. Okta unveiled a revamped partner programme that shifts most implementation and service delivery to partners.
• 18 Sep 2026 — Board appointment. Helen Riley was named to Okta's board of directors.
• 26 Aug 2026 — Q2 FY2027 beat and raise. Revenue rose 11% to $805m, non-GAAP EPS was $1.05, RPO grew 17% to $4.86bn and FY2027 guidance was raised to $3.216–3.226bn revenue and $3.90–3.94 non-GAAP EPS; the shares closed up about 27% the next day.
• 26 Aug 2026 — Permiso Security acquisition completed. The identity threat detection and response specialist, announced on 30 Jul 2026, joins Okta's Identity Threat Protection portfolio; terms were not disclosed by Okta.

12. Key Dates

• 31 Oct 2026 — end of fiscal Q3 2027.
• Expected Dec 2026 — Q3 FY2027 results (not yet confirmed by Okta; last year's Q3 report was on 2 Dec 2025). Management guided to revenue of $813–817m and non-GAAP EPS of $0.92–0.94.
• 31 Jan 2027 — end of fiscal year 2027.
• Expected Mar 2027 — Q4 and full-year FY2027 results, with FY2028 guidance.
• 26 Aug 2026 — Q2 FY2027 results released (most recent reported quarter).

Check the ChartsView Economic Calendar for macro releases that move software stocks, and discuss Okta with other investors in the Forum.

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