The Trade Desk (TTD) — Company Research
Last Updated: 24 May 2026
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) is the largest independent demand-side platform (DSP) in digital advertising, giving agencies and brands a single, self-service place to buy data-driven advertising across connected TV (CTV), retail media, mobile, audio, video and display on the open internet. Fiscal 2025 was a study in contrasts: the company still grew revenue 18% to a record $2.9 billion, generated almost $800 million of free cash flow and ended the year debt-free, yet its shares collapsed from a January 2025 peak that valued the business near $58 billion to roughly $10.5 billion today as growth decelerated and competition from Amazon intensified. This report walks through what the company actually reported, where the numbers stand, and the facts an investor would weigh, with every figure drawn from primary filings. You can follow the price action on our live charts page.
1. Company Snapshot
The Trade Desk is a profitable, founder-led adtech company headquartered in Ventura, California, led by co-founder and CEO Jeff Green since 2009. The figures below are drawn from the company's fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results (year ended 31 December 2025) and live market data.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | TTD / NASDAQ |
| Sector | Technology — Digital Advertising (Programmatic DSP) |
| Share price (23 May 2026) | $22.38 |
| Market capitalisation | ~$10.5 billion |
| 52-week range | $19.74 – $91.45 |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $2,896 million (+18% YoY) |
| Net income (FY2025, GAAP) | $443 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA (FY2025) | $1,196 million (41% margin) |
| Free cash flow (FY2025) | $796 million |
| Balance sheet | No debt; ~$1.3 billion cash & short-term investments |
| CEO / Co-founder | Jeff Green |
| Employees (31 Dec 2025) | 3,843 full-time, across 21 countries |
| Gross platform spend (FY2025) | ~$13.4 billion |
| Next earnings | Q2 2026 — 6 August 2026 |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Debt-free cash machine: The Trade Desk ended 2025 with no borrowings, roughly $1.3 billion of cash and short-term investments, and $796 million of free cash flow, giving it the flexibility to fund buybacks and innovation through any downturn.
- Connected TV and retail media tailwinds: The structural shift of advertising budgets toward streaming TV and retail media plays directly to the platform's strengths, and management says CTV remains its largest and fastest-growing channel.
- Independence on the open internet: As the largest independent DSP, The Trade Desk is not conflicted by owning media the way the walled gardens are, a positioning that has underpinned a customer retention rate above 95% for twelve consecutive years.
- Founder buying the dip: CEO Jeff Green personally purchased six million shares for about $148 million in March 2026, an unusually large open-market insider buy that aligns him with shareholders at depressed prices.
- Valuation reset: After a roughly 75% peak-to-current decline, the stock trades around 11 times consensus forward earnings, a fraction of the premium multiple it carried for most of its history.
Bear Case
- Growth is decelerating fast: Revenue growth has stepped down from 26% in 2024 to 18% in 2025 to 12% in the first quarter of 2026, with second-quarter guidance implying roughly 9% to 10%, calling into question the premium-growth thesis.
- Amazon is coming: Amazon's advertising business reached $68.6 billion in 2025 and its DSP is winning streaming inventory through deals with Netflix and Spotify, while Google's DV360 remains the share leader, squeezing the independent middle.
- Still not statistically cheap on GAAP: At around 24 times trailing GAAP earnings for a business now growing at single digits, the valuation leaves little room for further disappointment.
- Heavy stock-based compensation: Stock-based compensation was $491 million in 2025, equal to about 17% of revenue, and the company has had to spend heavily on buybacks to offset the resulting dilution.
- Execution and macro sensitivity: A December 2024 reorganisation, a new CFO in 2025 and management's own comments about wars, tariffs and macro pressure on advertiser budgets all add uncertainty to the near-term picture.
3. Business Segments
The Trade Desk operates as a single reportable segment: it earns a platform fee, generally a percentage of the advertising spend its clients run through its system, rather than buying and reselling media. The most useful way to split the business is geographically, where the United States still dominates but international markets represent management's long-term runway. Within that, connected TV is the largest and fastest-growing channel, followed by mobile, video, display and audio.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| North America | ~88% | The home market and the bulk of platform spend; the most mature programmatic market in the world |
| International | ~12% | Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific; smaller but less penetrated and management's primary growth opportunity |
4. Business Model & Competitive Moat
How it makes money. The Trade Desk charges a platform fee, generally a percentage of the advertising spend that flows through its software, rather than buying and reselling media. Because it takes a cut of spend instead of owning inventory, its incentives are aligned with the buyer: helping advertisers spend more efficiently grows both parties at once.
Unit economics. The model is highly scalable. Gross platform spend of roughly $13.4 billion in 2025 produced $2.9 billion of revenue at an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41% and an 18% top-line growth rate, with the incremental dollar carrying very high margins once the platform is built.
The competitive moat. The moat rests on three pillars. Scale and data: more spend produces more measurement signal, which improves decisioning and attracts still more spend. Switching costs and relationships: clients sign ongoing master service agreements rather than one-off orders, and retention has stayed above 95% for over a decade. Independence: unlike Google or Amazon, The Trade Desk does not own media that would conflict with acting purely in the advertiser's interest, and it has invested in identity infrastructure such as Unified ID 2.0 to preserve targeting as third-party cookies fade. The flagship Kokai platform and the Ventura connected-TV operating system are the current expressions of that strategy.
5. Financial Health
The Trade Desk's track record is one of consistent double-digit growth, expanding profitability and a pristine balance sheet. The company carries no debt and pays no dividend, choosing to return cash through share repurchases instead. The figures below come directly from the company's annual earnings press releases. Revenue is shown in millions of US dollars; "Adjusted EPS" is non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.
| Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,196 | +43% | $0.28 | $0.91 | None | None |
| 2022 | 1,578 | +32% | $0.11 | $1.04 | None | None |
| 2023 | 1,946 | +23% | $0.36 | $1.26 | None | None |
| 2024 | 2,445 | +26% | $0.78 | $1.66 | None | None |
| 2025 | 2,896 | +18% | $0.90 | $1.77 | None | None |
The quarterly cadence through fiscal 2025 shows the deceleration clearly: revenue growth softened as the year progressed, even as the absolute dollars and margins held up. Adjusted EPS is non-GAAP diluted; the full-year total is shown in bold.
| Quarter | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 847 | $0.59 | $0.39 |
| Q3 2025 | 739 | $0.45 | $0.23 |
| Q2 2025 | 694 | $0.41 | $0.18 |
| Q1 2025 | 616 | $0.33 | $0.10 |
| FY2025 total | 2,896 | $1.77 | $0.90 |
On the cash flow statement, operating cash flow rose 34% to $992.7 million in 2025 and free cash flow reached $795.7 million (operating cash flow of $992.7 million less capital expenditure of $197.0 million). The company spent roughly $1.4 billion repurchasing its own shares during 2025 at an average price of $52.60 — well above today's price — and still ended the year with around $1.3 billion of cash and short-term investments and no borrowings.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, May 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$10.5 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~$9.2 billion (market cap ~$10.5bn + total debt $0 − cash & short-term investments ~$1.30bn per FY2025 balance sheet) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~24x (market cap ~$10.5bn / FY2025 net income $443m) |
| P/E (forward) | ~11x (price $22.38 / consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS ~$2.06) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~3.5x (market cap ~$10.5bn / trailing revenue ~$2.97bn) |
| P/FCF | ~13x (market cap ~$10.5bn / FCF $796m; FCF = operating CF $992.7m − capex $197.0m per FY2025 cash flow statement) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~13x (EV ~$9.2bn / EBITDA ~$705m, where EBITDA = operating income $589m + D&A $116m per FY2025; on the company's adjusted EBITDA of $1,196m the multiple is ~7.7x) |
| 52-week high | $91.45 |
| 52-week low | $19.74 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~19.8% (mid-May 2026, per MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | ~4.7 |
The headline tension is visible in the numbers: a single-digit GAAP earnings multiple on a forward basis sits alongside a still-double-digit trailing GAAP multiple and an elevated short interest, reflecting a market that is sharply divided on whether growth re-accelerates. The technical picture is summarised in the widget below.
7. Growth Drivers
Three drivers underpin management's case for a return to faster growth. The first is connected TV, where the migration of premium video budgets from linear and walled-garden streaming to the open internet remains early, and where The Trade Desk's Ventura operating system aims to give it a structural foothold in the supply chain. The second is retail media, in which retailers' first-party purchase data is matched to advertising through partnerships with players such as Instacart, Koddi and others, opening a high-margin pool of spend. The third is artificial intelligence and identity: the Kokai platform embeds AI into bid decisioning, while Unified ID 2.0 and European Unified ID provide the cookieless targeting backbone the open internet needs.
Against those, the near-term reality is more sober. Management guided first-quarter 2026 revenue to at least $678 million and second-quarter revenue to at least $750 million, growth rates well below the company's historical pace, and CEO Jeff Green has openly attributed some softness to macro pressures on advertiser budgets. The investment case therefore hinges on whether the secular channel shifts can outrun both the macro drag and Amazon's encroachment.
8. Peer Comparison
The Trade Desk competes against far larger walled-garden platforms on one side and smaller independent adtech specialists on the other. Market caps are as of May 2026; the metric column shows each peer's most relevant 2025 advertising or revenue figure.
| Peer | Market cap (May 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (Google DV360) | ~$4.63 trillion | Google advertising revenue ~$294.7bn (FY2025) |
| Amazon (Amazon DSP) | ~$2.87 trillion | Advertising services revenue $68.6bn (FY2025, ~+22%) |
| Criteo (CRTO) | ~$0.87 billion | Revenue ~$1.92bn (trailing twelve months) |
| Magnite (MGNI) | ~$2.0 billion | Revenue ~$723m (trailing twelve months; supply-side platform) |
9. Insider Activity
The standout insider event of 2026 was a large, conviction open-market purchase by the founder. The table below summarises the most material recent transactions reported on Form 4.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Green (CEO) | 04 Mar 2026 | Buy (open market) | 6,000,000 | ~$24.67 avg | ~$148m | Open-market (via partnership) |
| Jeff Green (CEO) | 03 Mar 2026 | Equity grant (RSUs) | 398,089 | — | — | Compensation |
| Jeff Green (CEO) | 03 Mar 2026 | Option grant | 737,028 | $0.00 | — | Compensation |
A roughly $148 million open-market purchase by a CEO who already owns about 10% of the company is a notable signal of alignment, made near multi-year lows. It should be read alongside his sizeable equity grants, which are routine for a founder-led company.
10. Key Risks
- Competition: Amazon's fast-growing DSP and Google's DV360 are both far larger and increasingly able to bundle inventory, data and pricing in ways an independent platform cannot match.
- Growth deceleration: If the step-down from 18% to single-digit growth proves structural rather than cyclical, the premium that adtech investors once paid for The Trade Desk will not return.
- Advertiser cyclicality and macro: Advertising budgets are discretionary and contract quickly in downturns; management has flagged tariffs, wars and macro uncertainty as headwinds.
- Client concentration: A large share of spend is intermediated through a handful of advertising agency holding companies, whose decisions can move results materially.
- Privacy and identity regulation: The shift away from third-party cookies and tightening data-privacy rules could impair targeting if industry identity solutions do not scale as hoped.
- Dilution and valuation: Stock-based compensation near 17% of revenue requires continuous buybacks, and the trailing GAAP multiple leaves little margin for error.
11. Recent Developments
- 07 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results disappoint. Revenue grew 12% to $689 million, GAAP net income fell to $40 million ($0.08 diluted) and adjusted EBITDA was $206 million; second-quarter revenue guidance of at least $750 million implied a further slowdown, and the shares fell sharply on the release.
- 04 Mar 2026 — CEO buys $148 million of stock. Jeff Green completed open-market purchases of six million shares at roughly $23.49 to $25.08 each, one of the largest insider buys in the company's history.
- 25 Feb 2026 — Full-year 2025 results. Revenue rose 18% to $2.896 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $1,196 million (41% margin) and free cash flow was $795.7 million; the board approved an additional $350 million of buyback authorisation.
- 2025 — Leadership and platform moves. The company appointed Alex Kayyal as CFO, named a new chief revenue officer, rolled out upgrades across the Kokai platform and the Ventura connected-TV operating system, and expanded retail-media and identity partnerships.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 06 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings, the next major test of whether revenue growth stabilises against the at-least-$750-million guidance.
- 05 Nov 2026 — expected Q3 2026 earnings, the first read on holiday-season and political advertising demand.
- 25 Feb 2027 — expected Q4 and full-year 2026 results, the key checkpoint on whether full-year growth re-accelerated.
Between those dates, watch for connected-TV and retail-media partnership announcements, updates on Amazon DSP competitive dynamics, and the pace of share repurchases against the remaining buyback authorisation. Track scheduled market-moving events on our economic calendar, and share your view in the ChartsView forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. The Trade Desk operates the largest independent demand-side platform in digital advertising, charging a fee on the roughly $13.4 billion of advertising spend that flowed through its software in 2025. Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 18% to $2.9 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion (a 41% margin) and free cash flow of $796 million, all on a debt-free balance sheet, though management's guidance points to a slowdown toward single-digit growth in 2026. The key driver from here is the secular shift of connected-TV and retail-media budgets onto the open internet, amplified by the AI-driven Kokai platform.
What would confirm or break it. A return to double-digit revenue growth, continued share gains in connected TV and resilient free cash flow would confirm that the 2025-26 deceleration was cyclical rather than structural. The thesis breaks if Amazon's DSP and Google's DV360 keep compressing the independent middle, if advertiser budgets stay weak on macro pressure, or if growth settles permanently into single digits and no longer justifies the multiple.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ2 2026 earnings (74 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Debt-free cash machine:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Competition:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 24 May 2026.