BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) — Company Research
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) is a US-based provider of AI-powered decision-intelligence software and services, focused on national security, defence, digital identity and biometrics, and supply-chain (trade and travel) markets, selling primarily to US government and defence customers. For fiscal 2025 (year to 31 December 2025) the company reported revenue of $127.7m (down from $158.2m in FY2024), a GAAP operating loss of $213.9m, and a net loss of $293.9m, with free cash flow of negative $46.3m (revenue, operating loss and net loss per EDGAR XBRL / the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02; FCF per yfinance annual financials, pulled 2026-05-31). On 5 May 2026 BigBear.ai reported Q1 2026 revenue of $34.4m, gross margin of 34.0% and a net loss of $56.8m, with backlog up to $281.9m and full-year 2026 revenue guidance affirmed at $135m–$165m. The shares trade at $5.04, within a wide 52-week range of $3.01 to $9.39, with a market capitalisation of $2.4bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31). The next earnings report (Q2 2026) is expected in early August 2026.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Name | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | BBAI / New York Stock Exchange |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / IT Services (per yfinance) |
| Market cap | $2.41bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
| Enterprise value | $2.09bn (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
| FY2025 revenue | $127.672m (per the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02) |
| FY2025 operating income (EDGAR XBRL) | -$213.897m GAAP operating loss (per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss; includes non-cash goodwill impairment; yfinance reports -$83.4m, excluding impairment) |
| FY2025 free cash flow | -$46.3m (operating cash flow -$42.0m less capex $4.4m, per yfinance annual financials) |
| Gross margin | 25.8% (per yfinance, TTM) |
| Net margin | -226.7% (per yfinance, TTM) |
| Employees | approximately 579 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
| CEO | Kevin McAleenan, Chief Executive Officer (since 15 January 2025; former Acting US Secretary of Homeland Security) |
| Headquarters | McLean, Virginia, USA |
| Website | https://bigbear.ai |
| Fiscal year-end | 31 December |
| Next earnings | Early August 2026 — Q2 2026 (date not yet confirmed) |
| Dividend yield | None (no dividend) |
| 52-week high | $9.39 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
| 52-week low | $3.01 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
| Short interest | 124.9m shares short; short ratio 3.1 days (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
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Backlog is growing and skewing toward national security. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), backlog rose 14% from the prior quarter to $281.9m, driven by a sole-source prime classified award of $53m, with roughly $75m of total wins in the quarter across national security and trade and travel.
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Gross margin expanded sharply. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), gross margin rose to 34.0% from 21.3% a year earlier, a gain the company attributed to programme mix and cost actions.
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The balance sheet has been substantially strengthened. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), BigBear.ai held approximately $431.5m of total available cash and investments as at 31 March 2026 and settled the remaining $124.6m of its 2029 convertible notes (primarily via debt-to-equity conversion in January 2026), reducing interest expense.
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Exposure to a growing AI / national-security spending theme. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02), the company targets US defence, intelligence, homeland-security and digital-identity markets, areas of rising government AI investment, led by a CEO with senior national-security experience.
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Management affirmed full-year guidance. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), BigBear.ai affirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m, implying a return to growth versus FY2025's $127.7m.
Bear Case
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Revenue fell in FY2025. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), revenue declined approximately 19% to $127.7m (FY2024: $158.2m), an unusual outcome for a company valued as a high-growth AI play.
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Losses are large and persistent. Per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), the FY2025 GAAP operating loss was $213.9m and the net loss was $293.9m; the company has never reported an annual profit.
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Heavy shareholder dilution. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02), shares outstanding rose to roughly 437m at year-end from about 252m a year earlier, and the count has continued to climb as debt is converted to equity and stock is issued.
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Extreme valuation relative to fundamentals. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), the shares trade at approximately 19x trailing sales and roughly 16x enterprise value to revenue, despite declining revenue and ongoing losses.
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Very high short interest and volatility. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), about 124.9m shares are sold short and the stock's beta is 3.05, indicating a highly speculative, volatile security.
3. What Does BigBear.ai Actually Do?
BigBear.ai sells AI-powered "decision intelligence" — software and services that ingest data and produce predictions, analytics and automation for mission-critical government and commercial operations (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02). The company operates as a single reportable segment, so a divisional revenue breakdown is not disclosed; instead it describes its work across several markets.
In national security and defence, BigBear.ai provides analytics, modelling and decision-support tools for the US Department of Defense, intelligence community and allied agencies. In digital identity and biometrics — anchored by the 2024 acquisition of Pangiam — it provides facial-recognition and identity solutions for airports, border control and travel (for example, US Customs and aviation security applications). In supply chain and logistics (trade and travel), it offers optimisation and anomaly-detection tools. Revenue is overwhelmingly tied to US government and prime-contractor customers, which makes contract awards and federal budget timing the key revenue drivers.
A geographic revenue breakdown beyond the company's predominantly US government base is not disclosed in this report's source data, and a segment donut chart is not applicable given the single reportable segment.
4. The Business Model
BigBear.ai earns revenue primarily through government and defence contracts — a mix of cost-reimbursable, time-and-materials and fixed-price arrangements for software, analytics and professional services (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02). Revenue visibility comes from backlog, which stood at $281.9m at the end of Q1 2026 (per the Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026); contract funding, re-competes and the federal budget cycle therefore drive the top line.
The intended moat rests on security clearances, accredited and embedded software within sensitive government programmes, domain expertise in identity and national security, and proprietary AI models. However, unit economics remain unproven at the company level: gross margin was 25.8% on a trailing basis (34.0% in Q1 2026 per the earnings release, 5 May 2026), but the business is loss-making at the operating and net level and has consumed cash (FY2025 free cash flow of -$46.3m, per yfinance). The company has funded itself through repeated equity and convertible-debt issuance, and has grown partly through acquisitions (such as Pangiam). Capital is not returned to shareholders; there is no dividend or buyback.
5. Financial Health
Five-year trend (fiscal years to 31 December; $m unless stated). Operating loss is the GAAP figure per EDGAR XBRL (it includes non-cash goodwill impairment in FY2022, FY2024 and FY2025); revenue, net loss and diluted EPS per EDGAR / the 10-K; FCF per yfinance.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | not disclosed | 155.0 | 155.2 | 158.2 | 127.7 |
| Operating loss (GAAP, EDGAR) | not disclosed | -110.5 | -39.0 | -133.4 | -213.9 |
| Net loss | not disclosed | -111.4 | -70.7 | -295.5 | -293.9 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | not disclosed | -0.87 | -0.47 | -1.27 | -0.82 |
| Free cash flow | not disclosed | -49.7 | -22.1 | -49.2 | -46.3 |
Source: revenue/operating loss/net loss/diluted EPS per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02); FCF per yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31).
Balance sheet (fiscal year-ends; $m):
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 12.6 | 32.6 | 50.1 | 87.1 |
| Total debt | 200.3 | 162.5 | 146.4 | 114.8 |
| Total stockholders' equity | -37.9 | -30.0 | -3.7 | 611.9 |
| Shares outstanding (period-end, m) | 117.1 | 157.3 | 251.6 | 437.0 |
Source: yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31). Equity turned positive in FY2025 chiefly through large equity issuance and conversion of debt to stock; the share count more than tripled from FY2022 to FY2025.
Quarterly trend (last five quarters; GAAP; $m except EPS):
| Quarter (period end) | Revenue | Operating loss | Net income/(loss) | Diluted EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 (31 Mar 2025) | 34.8 | -21.2 | -62.0 | -0.25 |
| Q2 2025 (30 Jun 2025) | 32.5 | -90.3 | -228.6 | -0.71 |
| Q3 2025 (30 Sep 2025) | 33.1 | -21.9 | 2.5 | -0.03 |
| Q4 2025 (31 Dec 2025) | 27.3* | -80.5* | -5.8* | not meaningful |
| Q1 2026 (31 Mar 2026) | 34.4 | -24.3 | -56.8 | -0.12 |
Source: 10-Q periods per EDGAR XBRL; Q1 2026 also per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026). *Q4 2025 figures are derived as the FY2025 full year less the first nine months and are approximate. The large swings — a $228.6m net loss in Q2 2025 and a small net profit in Q3 2025 — are driven mainly by non-cash changes in the fair value of warrant and derivative liabilities and by goodwill impairment, which is why net losses far exceed the operating cash burn (FY2025 operating cash flow of -$42.0m, per yfinance).
6. Valuation & Market Data
Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31) |
|---|---|
| Share price | $5.04 |
| Previous close | $4.94 |
| Day range | $4.71 – $5.16 |
| 52-week high / low | $9.39 / $3.01 |
| Market cap | $2.41bn |
| Enterprise value | $2.09bn |
| Shares outstanding | 478.9m |
| Float | 475.3m |
| Average daily volume (10d) | 53.0m shares |
| Volume (date) | not disclosed in this report's source data |
| Beta | 3.05 |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | not applicable (loss-making) |
| Forward P/E | -25.2x (negative) |
| P/S (TTM) | 18.95x |
| P/B | 3.04x |
| EV/Revenue | 16.40x |
| EV/EBITDA | not disclosed in this report's source data |
| P/FCF | not applicable (negative FCF) |
| Gross margin (TTM) | 25.8% |
| Operating margin (TTM, GAAP) | -66.9% |
| Net margin (TTM) | -226.7% |
| ROE | -58.4% |
| ROA | not disclosed in this report's source data |
| Debt-to-equity | 3.05% |
| Current ratio | 6.08x |
| Dividend yield | None |
| Short interest | 124.9m shares (short ratio 3.1 days) |
| Put/call ratio | not disclosed in this report's source data |
7. What Are They Building / What's Coming
BigBear.ai's forward strategy centres on expanding its position in US national security and digital identity. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (5 May 2026), recent wins include a $53m sole-source prime classified award and approximately $75m of total Q1 bookings across national security and trade and travel, lifting backlog to $281.9m. The Pangiam acquisition (completed 2024) anchors a biometrics and facial-recognition portfolio aimed at airports, border control and travel security (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02).
On capital structure, the company settled the remaining $124.6m of its 2029 convertible notes, primarily through debt-to-equity conversion in January 2026, and reported approximately $431.5m of available cash and investments at 31 March 2026 (per the Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026), giving it runway to invest despite ongoing losses. Management affirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m (per the same release). The company has indicated it intends to pursue further AI product development and potential acquisitions; no specific internal long-range financial forecasts beyond the FY2026 guidance are included in this report's source data, and no third-party analyst forecasts are used.
8. Competitive Landscape
BigBear.ai competes with both pure-play AI software vendors and large government IT and analytics contractors. Peer market data (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31):
| Company | Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (TTM) | Gross margin | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BigBear.ai | BBAI | $2.41bn | $0.13bn | 25.8% | 18.95x |
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | $375.3bn | $5.22bn | 84.1% | 71.83x |
| C3.ai | AI | $1.56bn | $0.31bn | 43.5% | 5.09x |
| SoundHound AI | SOUN | $3.89bn | $0.18bn | 40.6% | 21.17x |
| CACI International | CACI | $11.34bn | $9.16bn | 32.6% | 1.24x |
| Leidos Holdings | LDOS | $16.08bn | $17.33bn | 17.9% | 0.93x |
All figures are in US dollars. BigBear.ai is among the smallest companies in this group by revenue, competing for government AI and analytics work against far larger primes (CACI, Leidos) and against higher-profile AI software names (Palantir, C3.ai, SoundHound). Its price-to-sales multiple (18.95x) is well above the government-IT primes and below the most richly valued AI peers, while its gross margin sits below most of the software-oriented peers. No view is offered here on relative winners or losers.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Kevin McAleenan has served as Chief Executive Officer and a director since 15 January 2025; he is a former Acting US Secretary of Homeland Security and founded Pangiam, which BigBear.ai acquired in 2024 (per company announcements and the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02). Sean Ricker serves as Chief Financial Officer, having been appointed interim CFO in June 2025 after previously serving as Chief Accounting Officer (per company announcements). Fuller executive tenures and compensation are set out in the company's proxy statement and are not reproduced in this report's source data.
Ownership is notable for a low insider stake and a large retail component. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), institutions hold approximately 42.3% and insiders approximately 0.7%. The largest reported institutional holders (per yfinance, as at 31 March 2026):
| Holder | Stake | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | 7.51% | 36.0m |
| Vanguard (Capital Mgmt) | 4.02% | 19.3m |
| Geode Capital Management | 2.21% | 10.6m |
| State Street Corporation | 2.19% | 10.5m |
| UBS Group AG | 2.12% | 10.2m |
Recent specific insider transactions are not disclosed in this report's source data.
10. Risks and Challenges
- History of losses and going-concern sensitivity (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has incurred significant and continuing net losses and negative cash flows and may need additional capital, the availability of which is not assured.
- Customer concentration in the US government (Concentration): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), a large majority of revenue comes from US government and prime-contractor customers, so the loss or delay of key contracts would materially affect results.
- Dependence on federal budgets and contract funding (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), revenue depends on government appropriations, contract awards, re-competes and the timing of funding, all of which can shift with political and budget cycles, including shutdowns.
- Shareholder dilution and capital structure (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has financed itself through substantial equity and convertible-debt issuance, materially increasing the share count and diluting existing holders.
- Competition (Competitive): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), BigBear.ai competes with larger, better-resourced government contractors and AI software vendors that may offer broader capabilities or lower prices.
- Acquisition integration (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company has grown through acquisitions (including Pangiam) that carry integration, retention and impairment risk, as evidenced by goodwill impairment charges.
- Cybersecurity and handling of sensitive data (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), the company processes sensitive government and biometric data, making security breaches a material operational, legal and reputational risk.
- Reliance on key personnel and security clearances (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02), performance depends on attracting and retaining cleared technical and leadership talent in a competitive market.
11. Recent Developments
Most recent first.
- 5 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results, backlog increase and guidance affirmed: BigBear.ai reported first-quarter revenue of $34.4m, gross margin of 34.0% (up from 21.3% a year earlier), a net loss of $56.8m and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.9m; backlog rose 14% from the prior quarter to $281.9m (including a $53m sole-source classified award), available cash and investments stood at approximately $431.5m, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135m–$165m was affirmed. Source: BigBear.ai Q1 2026 earnings release / Form 8-K.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
- Early August 2026: Q2 2026 earnings (quarter to 30 June 2026). Date not yet confirmed in this report's source data; Q1 2026 results were released on 5 May 2026.
- Mid-2026: Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Date not disclosed in this report's source data.
Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. BigBear.ai presents itself as an AI-powered decision-intelligence company positioned to capitalise on rising US national-security, defence and digital-identity demand, building on a growing backlog and a strengthened balance sheet to scale toward profitability (FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-02; Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026).
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation: Q1 2026 backlog rose 14% to $281.9m (including a $53m sole-source classified award), gross margin expanded to 34.0%, and the balance sheet holds ~$431.5m of available cash and investments. The thesis breaks if revenue keeps falling (FY2025 -19% to $127.7m), if losses and cash burn persist (FY2025 GAAP operating loss $213.9m, net loss $293.9m), or if continued dilution (shares ~437m at FY2025 year-end vs ~252m a year earlier) keeps outpacing fundamental progress.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsBacklog +14% Q/Q to $281.9m with a $53m sole-source classified award (Q1 2026 earnings release, 5 May 2026).
- ConfirmsGross margin expanded to 34.0% from 21.3% Y/Y; FY2026 revenue guidance affirmed at $135m-$165m.
- Confirms~$431.5m available cash and investments; 2029 convertible notes settled.
- InvalidatesFY2025 revenue fell ~19% to $127.7m; company remains deeply loss-making (net loss $293.9m).
- InvalidatesHeavy dilution (shares ~437m vs ~252m a year earlier) and a ~19x sales valuation.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 31 May 2026.