Technology

Last Updated: 28 June 2026

Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) is one of the world's largest makers of wafer-fabrication equipment, specialising in the deposition, etch and clean steps that physically build the transistors and 3D memory stacks inside every advanced chip. As the AI build-out drives record spending on leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging, Lam has posted its strongest results on record — while its shares have re-rated dramatically, leaving the stock priced for sustained, cycle-defying growth. This report walks through the numbers, the moat, the competition and the risks, sourced entirely from company filings and primary disclosures.

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1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Exchange / Ticker	NASDAQ: LRCX
Sector	Technology — Semiconductor Equipment
Market cap	~$474bn (26 Jun 2026)
Revenue (FY2025)	$18.44bn (fiscal year ended 29 Jun 2025)
Net income (FY2025)	$5.36bn (GAAP)
CEO	Timothy (Tim) Archer, President & Chief Executive Officer
Employees	~19,700
Headquarters	Fremont, California, USA
Founded	1980
Fiscal year end	Last Sunday of June (FY2025 ended 29 Jun 2025)
Dividend	~$1.04/share annualised (~$0.26 quarterly); split-adjusted

Lam executed a 10-for-1 forward stock split effective 2 October 2024; all per-share figures in this report are stated on the post-split basis.

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• AI-era deposition & etch criticality: The shift to gate-all-around transistors, 3D DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging multiplies the number of deposition and etch steps per wafer — the exact processes Lam dominates — structurally lifting its served market.
• Record financial momentum: FY2025 revenue rose 23.7% to $18.44bn and GAAP EPS jumped to $4.15, and the March-2026 quarter set fresh records at $5.84bn revenue with management guiding the June quarter to ~$6.60bn.
• Growing recurring base: The Customer Support Business Group delivered its first $2.1bn quarter in March 2026, a large installed-base annuity (spares, service, upgrades, Reliant tools) that smooths the cyclicality of new-systems sales.
• Shareholder returns & balance sheet: Lam runs a net-cash balance sheet, has bought back roughly $3.4bn of stock in FY2025 and raised the dividend, returning the bulk of free cash flow to shareholders.

Bear Case

• Rich valuation: At roughly 71x trailing GAAP earnings the shares discount many years of uninterrupted growth; any wobble in AI capex or memory pricing could trigger sharp multiple compression.
• Industry cyclicality: Wafer-fab equipment spending has always been boom-and-bust — FY2024 revenue fell ~15% — and the current up-cycle will eventually turn.
• China & export-control exposure: China was ~34% of March-2026 revenue; tighter US export rules or a pull-back in Chinese mature-node investment would directly dent sales.
• Customer concentration: A handful of leading-edge logic and memory makers drive most revenue, so a single customer's capex deferral has an outsized effect.

3. Revenue Segments

Lam reports as a single operating segment but discloses revenue between new Systems and recurring Customer Support, shown below using the March-2026 (Q3 FY2026) quarter.

Segment	% of revenue (Q3 FY2026)	What it is
Systems	~64% ($3.73bn)	New leading-edge equipment for deposition, etch and clean — the tools that build transistor and memory structures at the most advanced nodes.
Customer Support Business Group (CSBG)	~36% ($2.11bn)	Recurring spares, service, upgrades and non-leading-edge Reliant® systems sold into the large installed base.

By geography, March-2026 revenue skewed to Asia: China ~34%, Korea ~23%, Taiwan ~23%, Japan ~8%, United States ~6%, with Southeast Asia and Europe making up the balance.

4. Business Model

Lam sells the capital equipment that chipmakers install in their fabs, then earns a long, high-margin annuity servicing that equipment for its operating life.

How it makes money: The Systems business sells deposition (ALD/CVD/ECD), plasma etch and clean tools, typically multi-million-dollar machines bought in waves as customers add leading-edge capacity. The Customer Support Business Group then generates recurring revenue from spares, service contracts, productivity upgrades and refurbished Reliant tools across a growing installed base.

Unit economics & moat: FY2025 gross margin was 48.7% and operating margin 32.0%, reflecting high switching costs — once a process is qualified on a Lam tool, customers rarely re-qualify a rival mid-node. Deep process know-how in etch and deposition, co-development with the top foundries and memory makers, and a wide patent estate underpin the moat.

Capital allocation: Lam converts a high share of earnings to free cash flow and returns most of it via buybacks and a rising dividend, operating with net cash on the balance sheet.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures below are from Lam's audited statements and quarterly press releases; all per-share data is split-adjusted (10-for-1, October 2024).

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend / Share	Long-Term Debt (YE)
FY2021	$14.63bn	—	$2.69	—	$0.52	—
FY2022	$17.23bn	+17.8%	$3.28	—	$0.60	—
FY2023	$17.43bn	+1.2%	$3.32	—	$0.69	—
FY2024	$14.91bn	−14.5%	$2.90	$3.36	$0.80	$4.48bn
FY2025	$18.44bn	+23.7%	$4.15	$4.89	$0.92	$3.73bn

Quarterly trend (most recent first); the bold row is the last completed fiscal year. Lam's FY2026 is in progress, with three quarters reported.

Quarter	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 FY2026 (Mar 2026)	$5.84bn	$1.47	$1.45
Q2 FY2026 (Dec 2025)	$5.34bn	$1.27	$1.26
Q1 FY2026 (Sep 2025)	$5.32bn	$1.26	$1.24
Q4 FY2025 (Jun 2025)	$5.17bn	$1.33	$1.35
FY2025 (full year)	$18.44bn	$4.89	$4.15

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market Cap	~$474bn (26 Jun 2026 close $379.09 × ~1.25bn shares)
Enterprise Value	~$473bn (market cap ~$474bn + total debt ~$3.73bn − cash ~$4.75bn per 29 Mar 2026 balance sheet; ~$1.0bn net cash)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~71x ($379.09 / TTM GAAP EPS ~$5.30; TTM = 9M FY2026 $3.95 + Q4 FY2025 $1.35)
P/E (forward)	~57x ($379.09 / annualised June-2026 guidance EPS ~$6.60; management guide $1.65 × 4)
P/S (TTM)	~22x (market cap ~$474bn / TTM revenue ~$21.68bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~60x (EV ~$473bn / EBITDA ~$7.85bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income ~$7.43bn + D&A ~$0.42bn)
P/FCF	~79x (market cap ~$474bn / FCF ~$6.0bn; FCF = TTM operating CF ~$6.95bn − capex ~$0.95bn)
52-week high	$409.75
52-week low	$90.94
Short interest (% of float)	~2.3% (~28.56m shares, latest settlement)
Days to cover	~2 days

7. What They're Building

Lam's roadmap is aimed squarely at the structural changes the AI era is forcing onto chip manufacturing. In patterning, the company is ramping its Aether® dry-resist suite — an underlayer, dry photoresist and dry-develop process co-developed with ASML and imec to extend EUV lithography — which is now in production at two memory makers, against a stated multi-year revenue target of roughly $1.5bn.

In metallisation, Lam introduced molybdenum atomic layer deposition on its ALTUS® Halo platform, positioned as the first high-volume Mo ALD tool for advanced interconnects. Across deposition and etch, the company is targeting the additional process steps required by gate-all-around logic, 3D DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, where vertical, high-aspect-ratio structures lean heavily on Lam's etch and deposition leadership. Management frames AI as the driver of a chip-equipment market it sees scaling toward ~$140bn.

8. Competitive Landscape

Lam competes within a consolidated group of five firms that together dominate wafer-fab equipment. It leads in etch and is a top-two player in deposition, while peers anchor different niches.

Peer	Market Cap (Jun 2026)	Key 2025 metric
ASML	~$693bn	Sole supplier of EUV lithography; reported record quarterly bookings of ~$15.7bn (Jan 2026)
Applied Materials (AMAT)	~$500bn	Broadest WFE portfolio — deposition, etch, CMP, ion implant and inspection
KLA Corporation (KLAC)	~$314bn	Process-control and inspection leader; completed a 10-for-1 split in June 2026

Privately held and regional players such as Tokyo Electron also compete directly in deposition and etch, but the five-firm oligopoly structure gives incumbents like Lam durable pricing power and high barriers to entry.

9. Leadership & Ownership

Lam is led by President and CEO Timothy (Tim) Archer, who has run the company since 2018. Recent insider activity is dominated by the CEO's scheduled, plan-based transactions rather than open-market signalling.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Timothy Archer (CEO)	17 Dec 2025	Sale	163,300	~$163.86	~$26.76m	Rule 10b5-1 (adopted 19 Aug 2025)
Timothy Archer (CEO)	04 Feb 2026	RSU/PRSU settlement	271,530	$0.00	—	Equity award vesting
Timothy Archer (CEO)	24 Feb 2026	Gift	7,080	—	—	Bona fide gift (code G)

After the February 2026 award, the CEO directly held roughly 1.2m shares, with additional indirect holdings through retirement accounts. Lam is overwhelmingly institutionally owned, typical of a large-cap S&P 500 constituent.

10. Key Risks

• Valuation / expectations (Market): At ~71x trailing earnings the shares price in years of sustained growth; disappointment on AI capex or memory pricing could compress the multiple sharply.
• Industry cyclicality (Macro): Wafer-fab equipment demand is cyclical and capex-driven; FY2024 revenue already fell ~15%, and the current up-cycle will eventually peak.
• China & export controls (Regulatory): China contributed ~34% of March-2026 revenue; tighter US export rules or weaker Chinese mature-node investment would directly reduce sales.
• Customer concentration (Operational): A small number of leading-edge logic and memory makers drive most revenue, so a single customer's deferral has an outsized impact.
• Competition (Operational): Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron contest deposition and etch, and any share loss at a critical node erodes long-run economics.
• Technology-transition execution (Operational): Lam must keep winning process qualifications at each node (GAA, 3D DRAM, HBM, dry resist); a single misstep can cede a socket for a full product generation.

11. Recent Developments

• 22 Apr 2026 — Record March-quarter results. Lam reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $5.84bn (+24% year on year) and GAAP EPS of $1.45, with the Customer Support group posting its first $2.1bn quarter; management guided the June 2026 quarter to ~$6.60bn revenue and ~$1.65 EPS.
• 31 May 2026 — CEO frames a ~$140bn equipment opportunity. In reported remarks, Tim Archer described AI as fuelling a chip-equipment market scaling toward roughly $140bn, with deposition and etch intensity rising in the 3D/AI era.
• 02 Sep 2025 — Dry-resist collaboration and dispute settlement. Lam and JSR/Inpria entered a cross-licensing and collaboration agreement and resolved prior disputes, underpinning Lam's Aether dry-resist push for EUV patterning.

12. Key Dates

• 29 Jul 2026 — Fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results (expected)
• Expected Aug 2026 — Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K filing
• Expected Sep 2026 — Next quarterly dividend ex-date (~$0.26/share)
• Expected Oct 2026 — First-quarter fiscal 2027 results

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 26 June 2026

KLA Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) is the dominant supplier of process-control equipment to the semiconductor industry — the inspection and metrology tools chipmakers use to find defects and measure structures at the atomic scale. With roughly 58% of the global process-control market, KLA sits at a critical chokepoint in advanced-chip manufacturing, and the artificial-intelligence build-out has driven record demand. The company reported its fiscal year ended 30 June 2025 and, more recently, its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results for the quarter ended 31 March 2026. Note that KLA completed a 10-for-1 forward stock split effective 12 June 2026; per-share figures in the historical tables below are shown as originally reported (pre-split). Follow the live price on our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	KLAC (NASDAQ)
Sector	Technology — Semiconductor Equipment
CEO	Rick Wallace (President & Chief Executive Officer)
Headquarters	Milpitas, California, USA
Employees	~15,000
Share price (Jun 2026, post-split)	~$240
Market cap (Jun 2026)	~$314 billion
Revenue (FY2025)	$12.16 billion
GAAP net income (FY2025)	$4.06 billion
GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025, pre-split)	$30.37
Non-GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025, pre-split)	$33.28
Dividend / yield	$0.23 per share quarterly (post-split) / ~0.33%
Fiscal year end	30 June

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Process-control near-monopoly: KLA holds roughly 58% of the global process-control market, a position protected by decades of accumulated data, software and customer trust that is extremely hard to displace.
• AI build-out demand: management raised its 2026 wafer-fab-equipment outlook to over $140 billion, and process-control revenue from advanced packaging is expected to nearly double to about $1 billion in 2026.
• Best-in-class profitability: KLA runs the highest gross margin of the major equipment makers (about 61–62%), converting strong revenue growth into substantial free cash flow.
• Powerful cash returns: KLA generated about $4.0 billion of trailing free cash flow and raised its dividend 21% in 2026, marking continued double-digit dividend growth alongside heavy buybacks.
• Structural tailwind: as chips grow more complex, defect-detection intensity rises, so process control tends to grow faster than the broader equipment market.

Bear Case

• Stretched valuation: after a sharp AI-driven re-rating, KLA trades on a high-60s trailing P/E and roughly 24x sales, leaving little room for disappointment.
• Industry cyclicality: semiconductor capital spending is famously cyclical, and revenue fell year over year in fiscal 2024 before the current upswing.
• China exposure and export controls: evolving U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security rules can restrict sales to certain Chinese customers, a meaningful demand source.
• Customer concentration: a handful of leading-edge foundry, logic and memory customers drive a large share of revenue, so a single capex pause has outsized impact.
• Insider selling: recent Form 4 activity skewed to selling, including by the CEO, which some investors read cautiously after a large run.

3. Business Segments

KLA reports three segments. Percentages are share of FY2025 total revenue of $12.16 billion.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Semiconductor Process Control	~90% ($10.95bn)	Inspection and metrology systems and services for wafer and reticle manufacturing — KLA’s core franchise.
Specialty Semiconductor Process	~5% ($0.59bn)	Etch and deposition tools for specialty devices and advanced packaging.
PCB and Component Inspection	~5% ($0.62bn)	Inspection and test for printed circuit boards, packaging and electronic components.

4. Business Model

KLA sells capital equipment and recurring services to semiconductor manufacturers, earning revenue when chipmakers invest in new capacity and technology nodes, and again over the life of each installed tool through service and upgrades.

How it makes money. The product business sells high-value inspection and metrology systems — often millions of dollars each — to leading-edge foundry, logic and memory fabs. As manufacturing shrinks and grows more complex, customers need more measurement and defect-detection per wafer, which expands KLA’s addressable market faster than overall equipment spending.

Recurring service moat. A large and growing installed base generates high-margin service revenue (about $2.7 billion in FY2025) that is far steadier than equipment sales, smoothing the industry’s cyclicality. KLA’s accumulated process knowledge and software make its tools deeply embedded in customer workflows.

Capital allocation. KLA returns most of its free cash flow to shareholders via a fast-growing dividend and consistent buybacks, while reinvesting heavily in R&D (about $1.36 billion in FY2025) to defend its technology lead.

5. Financial Health

All figures are from KLA earnings releases and SEC filings. The annual table covers the five fiscal years ended 30 June; per-share figures are as originally reported (pre the 10-for-1 split effective 12 June 2026).

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$6.92bn	+19.1%	$13.37	—	$4.20	—
FY2022	$9.21bn	+33.1%	$21.92	—	$5.20	—
FY2023	$10.50bn	+13.9%	$24.15	—	$5.80	—
FY2024	$9.81bn	−6.5%	$20.28	$23.74	$6.80	$5,880m
FY2025	$12.16bn	+23.9%	$30.37	$33.28	$7.60	$5,884m

Note: revenue dipped in fiscal 2024 during the semiconductor downturn before rebounding strongly in fiscal 2025. Dividends per share are annual run-rates (pre-split); the quarterly dividend was raised 21% to $2.30 in 2026 and is $0.23 on a post-split basis.

Quarterly revenue and EPS (most recent first; per-share figures pre-split):

Quarter	Revenue	Non-GAAP EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 FY2026	$3.42bn	$9.40	$9.12
Q2 FY2026	$3.28bn	$8.85	$8.68
Q1 FY2026	$3.22bn	$8.70	$8.46
Q4 FY2025	$3.18bn	$9.38	$9.06
FY2025 total	$12.16bn	$33.28	$30.37

For the twelve months ended 31 March 2026, KLA generated about $4.40 billion of operating cash flow and roughly $4.01 billion of free cash flow on trailing revenue of about $13.1 billion. At 31 March 2026 the company held $1,787m of cash plus $3,171m of marketable securities against $5,887m of long-term debt.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$314bn (Jun 2026)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~67x (market cap ~$314bn / TTM GAAP net income ~$4.67bn to Mar-2026)
P/E (forward)	~65x (market cap ~$314bn / FY2026E net income ~$4.8bn; 9-month FY2026 GAAP net income already $3.47bn)
P/S (TTM)	~24x (market cap ~$314bn / TTM revenue ~$13.1bn)
P/FCF	~78x (market cap ~$314bn / TTM FCF ~$4.01bn; FCF = operating CF ~$4.40bn − capex ~$0.43bn per TTM cash flow)
Enterprise value	~$315bn (market cap ~$314bn + total debt ~$5.9bn − cash & securities ~$5.0bn per Mar-2026 balance sheet)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~55x (EV ~$315bn / EBITDA ~$5.7bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income ~$5.3bn + D&A ~$0.4bn)
52-week high	$269.90 (post-split adjusted)
52-week low	$83.22 (post-split adjusted)
Short interest (% of float)	~2.2% (Feb 2026, ~2.6m shares short pre-split)
Days to cover	Not published in retrieved sources; KLA trading liquidity is high. Verify on Finviz/MarketBeat.

7. What They Are Building

KLA’s growth agenda centres on the most demanding parts of chipmaking. As leading-edge logic and high-bandwidth memory scale for AI, defect-detection and measurement intensity rise, expanding demand for KLA’s inspection and metrology tools. A key focus is advanced packaging — the techniques used to stack and interconnect chips for AI accelerators — where KLA expects process-control revenue to nearly double from about $635 million in 2025 to roughly $1 billion in 2026. Management has raised its 2026 wafer-fab-equipment market outlook to more than $140 billion, citing the AI infrastructure build-out, and continues to invest heavily in R&D (about $1.36 billion in FY2025) to extend its technology lead in optical and e-beam inspection, metrology and process-window-qualification software. The recurring-service business, tied to a large installed base, is also being expanded to smooth the industry’s cyclicality.

8. Competitive Landscape

KLA leads process control but operates within a consolidated equipment industry where a handful of firms command most of the market. Market caps are as of June 2026.

Peer	Market cap (Jun 2026)	Key 2025 metric
ASML	~$690bn	EUV lithography monopoly; ~51% gross margin
Applied Materials (AMAT)	~$460bn	Broadest wafer-fab-equipment portfolio; ~47% gross margin
Lam Research (LRCX)	~$465bn	Etch and deposition leader; ~48% gross margin

9. Leadership and Ownership

KLA is led by Rick Wallace as President and Chief Executive Officer, based in Milpitas, California. Over the 90 days to mid-June 2026, insider activity skewed toward selling: President & CEO Rick Wallace sold roughly 45,120 shares (about $10 million) around 11 June 2026, and aggregate insider sales were approximately $19.7 million, much of it routine for executives after a large share-price run. There was no material insider open-market buying during the period reviewed. The shareholder base is dominated by large institutional index and active managers, typical for a mega-cap technology company.

10. Key Risks

• Valuation (Financial): a high-60s trailing P/E prices in years of strong growth; any demand wobble could trigger a sharp de-rating.
• Cyclicality (Macro): semiconductor capital spending swings with the chip cycle, and KLA’s revenue has fallen year over year as recently as fiscal 2024.
• China export controls (Regulatory): tightening U.S. restrictions on equipment sales to certain Chinese customers could remove a meaningful slice of demand.
• Customer concentration (Operational): a small number of leading-edge foundry, logic and memory customers drive much of revenue, amplifying the impact of any single capex decision.
• Competition and technology shifts (Operational): ASML, Applied Materials and Lam Research compete in adjacent steps, and a missed technology transition could erode KLA’s lead.
• Geopolitics and tariffs (Macro): trade tensions, tariffs and supply-chain disruption could raise costs and complicate international operations.

11. Recent Developments

• 31 Jul 2025 — Fiscal 2025 results. KLA reported full-year revenue of $12.16bn and GAAP diluted EPS of $30.37, with record quarterly free cash flow above $1bn in the June quarter.
• 12 Mar 2026 — Dividend raised 21%. The board increased the quarterly dividend to $2.30 per share (pre-split).
• 29 Apr 2026 — Fiscal Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 11% year over year to $3.42bn; GAAP diluted EPS was $9.12 and non-GAAP EPS $9.40, both above guidance, with gross margin of 62.2%.
• 07 May 2026 — 10-for-1 stock split announced. KLA’s board approved a ten-for-one forward split to improve share accessibility.
• 12 Jun 2026 — Stock split effective. KLA shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis.

12. Key Dates

• 23 Jul 2026 — Fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results
• Expected Aug 2026 — Next quarterly dividend declaration ($0.23 per share, post-split)

For scheduled market-moving events, see our Economic Calendar, and discuss this company with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 22 June 2026

Fortinet is one of the world's largest pure-play cybersecurity vendors, best known for its FortiGate next-generation firewalls and the broad, tightly integrated "Fortinet Security Fabric" that spans network security, secure access (SASE) and AI-driven security operations. Founded in 2000 by Ken Xie and still led by him, Fortinet differentiates itself with custom security-processing ASICs that deliver high performance at lower power and cost than software-only rivals. This note reviews Fortinet's financials, valuation, segments and risks using only public filings and primary disclosures. For live pricing and technicals, see our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	FTNT (NASDAQ)
Headquarters	Sunnyvale, California, USA
Sector / Industry	Technology — cybersecurity (network & cloud security)
Founder, Chairman & CEO	Ken Xie
Employees	Approximately 14,000+
Market capitalisation	~$106bn (18 June 2026)
Share price (mid-June 2026)	~$144.84
FY2025 revenue	$6.80bn
FY2025 net income (GAAP)	~$1.86bn
FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS	$2.42
FY2025 non-GAAP diluted EPS	$2.76
Dividend	None — no dividend paid

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Integrated platform advantage: The Security Fabric ties firewalls, SASE and security operations into one stack, encouraging customers to consolidate vendors onto Fortinet rather than stitch together point products.
• ASIC cost/performance moat: Fortinet's custom security processors deliver throughput per dollar and per watt that software-only competitors struggle to match — a durable hardware edge in firewalls.
• SASE and SecOps momentum: Faster-growing software franchises are scaling quickly — Unified SASE annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached ~$1.15bn (+26%) and Security Operations ARR ~$434m (+30%) in FY2025.
• Elite profitability and cash generation: FY2025 gross margin was 81.3% and the company produced a record $2.21bn of free cash flow at a 33% margin, funding growth without external capital.
• Founder-led with strong balance sheet: Ken Xie still runs the company he founded, and Fortinet carries net cash, giving it flexibility for buybacks and tuck-in acquisitions.

Bear Case

• Premium valuation: At roughly 60x trailing GAAP earnings and ~48x free cash flow, the stock prices in years of sustained high growth, leaving little room for execution slips.
• Firewall refresh dependence: A meaningful slice of growth hinges on a multi-year hardware refresh cycle; if the upgrade wave fades, product revenue can decelerate sharply.
• Intense competition: Palo Alto Networks, Cisco, CrowdStrike and Zscaler are all expanding into adjacent platform territory, pressuring pricing and share.
• Persistent insider selling: Founder-CEO Ken Xie regularly sells stock under 10b5-1 plans (about $23m in early June 2026 alone), which some investors read as a signal.
• Stock near all-time highs: Shares set a record in June 2026 and trade near the top of their 52-week range, raising the bar for further re-rating.

3. Business Segments

Fortinet reports revenue in two streams — Product (hardware appliances) and Service (subscriptions and support). Within those, the company organises its go-to-market around three solution pillars: Secure Networking, Unified SASE and AI-Driven Security Operations, which represented roughly 65%, 25% and 10% of billings respectively in early 2025.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Service	~67%	Recurring FortiGuard security subscriptions (threat intelligence, IPS, sandboxing, SASE/SecOps) plus FortiCare technical support — $4.6bn in FY2025.
Product	~33%	FortiGate next-generation firewall appliances and other hardware powered by Fortinet's custom security ASICs — $2.22bn in FY2025.

4. Business Model & Strategy

Fortinet sells hardware appliances and then layers high-margin, recurring software subscriptions and support on top — a classic "land-and-expand" motion where the FortiGate firewall is the entry point and FortiGuard subscriptions, SASE and SecOps drive the lifetime value.

Platform consolidation. The strategic thesis is vendor consolidation: as security stacks sprawl, Fortinet pitches a single integrated Security Fabric that lowers cost and complexity, deepening customer lock-in and lifting attach rates of software subscriptions.

Shift toward software and recurring revenue. Management is deliberately tilting the mix toward SASE and Security Operations, where ARR is compounding at 26–30%, reducing reliance on the lumpier hardware cycle and improving revenue visibility.

AI as the next layer. Fortinet is embedding agentic AI across its portfolio — exemplified by the June 2026 FortiSOC launch — to automate threat investigation and response, aiming to keep its platform central as security operations become AI-driven.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are from Fortinet's audited filings and SEC XBRL data. Per-share figures reflect the 5-for-1 stock split completed in June 2022. Fortinet's fiscal year ends 31 December.

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
2021	$3.34bn	+28.8%	$0.73	—	None	$0.99bn
2022	$4.42bn	+32.2%	$1.06	—	None	$0.99bn
2023	$5.30bn	+20.1%	$1.46	$1.63	None	$0.99bn
2024	$5.96bn	+12.3%	$2.26	—	None	$0.99bn
2025	$6.80bn	+14.2%	$2.42	$2.76	None	$0.99bn

Adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS shown where confirmed from primary press releases; Fortinet carries $1.0bn of senior notes throughout, of which $0.50bn was classified as current at year-end 2025 as the 2026 tranche approached maturity.

Quarterly detail (most recent first). The Adjusted EPS column shows non-GAAP results where confirmed:

Quarter	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	$1.85bn	—	$0.72
Q4 2025	$1.91bn	—	$0.67
Q3 2025	$1.72bn	—	$0.62
Q2 2025	$1.63bn	—	$0.57
Q1 2025	$1.54bn	—	$0.56
FY2025 total	$6.80bn	$2.76	$2.42

FY2025 operating cash flow was $2.59bn against just $0.36bn of capital expenditure, producing record free cash flow of about $2.21bn. GAAP operating income was $2.085bn and depreciation & amortisation was $0.152bn. Fortinet runs a net-cash balance sheet, with cash and equivalents of ~$2.50bn against $1.0bn of senior notes.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$106bn
Enterprise value	~$104.5bn (market cap $106bn + total debt ~$1.0bn − cash & equivalents ~$2.5bn per FY2025 balance sheet; excludes ~$2bn of marketable investments, which would lower net EV further)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~59.9x ($144.84 / $2.42 FY2025 GAAP EPS)
P/E (forward)	~48.8x ($144.84 / $2.97 midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance $2.94–$3.00; Fortinet guides non-GAAP EPS only)
P/S (TTM)	~15.6x ($106bn / $6.80bn revenue)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~46.7x (EV ~$104.5bn / EBITDA ~$2.24bn; EBITDA = operating income $2.085bn + D&A $0.152bn per FY2025 filings)
P/FCF	~47.6x (market cap $106bn / FCF ~$2.23bn; FCF = operating cash flow $2.59bn − capex $0.36bn per FY2025 cash flow statement)
52-week high	$150.07
52-week low	$70.12
Short interest (% of float)	~2.79% (June 2026)
Days to cover	~2.75

7. Growth Drivers

Fortinet's near-term growth is led by two software franchises and one hardware tailwind. Unified SASE — combining SD-WAN with cloud-delivered security (SSE) — is scaling fastest, with billings up 40% in Q4 2025 and ARR of ~$1.15bn. AI-Driven Security Operations is compounding ARR at ~30%, accelerated by new agentic-AI products such as FortiSOC.

On the hardware side, a multi-year firewall refresh cycle is driving product revenue, supported by new high-end FortiGate models (3500G and 400G) aimed at AI-era data-centre and enterprise-edge workloads with rising encrypted-traffic volumes. For FY2026, management guides to revenue of $7.50–$7.70bn (around 14% growth) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.94–$3.00, with billings of $8.40–$8.60bn.

8. Competitive Landscape

Fortinet competes across firewalls, SASE and security operations against both networking incumbents and pure-play security vendors. Market caps below are as of mid-June 2026.

Peer	Market cap (June 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Cisco Systems (CSCO)	~$471bn	Networking and security incumbent expanding in AI-era security (Splunk-enabled)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	~$234.5bn	Largest pure-play security platform; "platformisation" strategy
CrowdStrike (CRWD)	~$96.1bn	Cloud-native endpoint and SIEM leader (Falcon platform)
Zscaler (ZS)	~$20.5bn	Cloud-native zero-trust / SSE specialist competing in SASE
Check Point Software (CHKP)	~$12.9bn	Long-established firewall and network-security vendor

9. Insider & Institutional Activity

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Ken Xie (Founder/CEO)	02 Jun 2026	Sale (exercise & sell)	160,632	~$141.81–$149.01	~$23.3m	Rule 10b5-1
Ken Xie (Founder/CEO)	04 May 2026	Sale	5,355	~$87–$90	~$0.48m	Rule 10b5-1
Michael Xie (Founder/CTO)	2026 (recent)	Sale	3,907	n/a	n/a	Rule 10b5-1

Founder-executive sales are conducted under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. After the 2 June 2026 transactions, Ken Xie directly owned approximately 53.1 million shares. Verify the latest filings on SEC EDGAR.

10. Key Risks

• Valuation risk: Trading near 60x GAAP earnings and ~48x free cash flow, the shares discount sustained high growth; any deceleration could trigger a sharp de-rating.
• Hardware-cycle risk: Product revenue depends on a firewall refresh wave; a slowdown in appliance demand would hit growth and mix disproportionately.
• Competitive risk: Palo Alto, Cisco, CrowdStrike and Zscaler are all pushing into Fortinet's platform territory, pressuring pricing, share and innovation pace.
• Concentration and key-person risk: Heavy reliance on founder-CEO Ken Xie and the FortiGate franchise concentrates strategic risk.
• Macro/IT-spending risk: Enterprise and government security budgets are sensitive to economic cycles, which can lengthen sales cycles and deal sizes.
• Execution risk in AI/SASE: The growth thesis assumes Fortinet wins the shift to SASE and AI-driven SecOps against well-funded cloud-native rivals.

11. Recent Developments

• 16 Jun 2026 — FortiSOC launched. Fortinet introduced FortiSOC, a unified, cloud-delivered security-operations platform that uses agentic AI to autonomously investigate and correlate alerts and recommend or execute responses under analyst oversight.
• 02 Jun 2026 — Insider sales and conference. Founder-CEO Ken Xie sold approximately $23.3m of stock under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and management presented at the Bank of America Global Technology Conference.
• 06 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose ~20% year on year to $1.85bn with billings up 31% to $2.09bn; management raised its FY2026 revenue outlook to roughly 15% growth.
• 05 Feb 2026 — Q4 and full-year 2025 results. FY2025 revenue grew 14% to $6.80bn, billings rose 16% to $7.55bn, GAAP diluted EPS was $2.42 (non-GAAP $2.76), and free cash flow reached a record $2.21bn.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 30 Jul 2026 — Expected Q2 2026 earnings release (estimated; some calendars indicate 12 Aug 2026 — confirm on the IR site)
• 04 Nov 2026 — Expected Q3 2026 earnings release (date to be confirmed; based on prior-year timing)
• 03 Feb 2027 — Expected Q4 / full-year 2026 results (date to be confirmed; Fortinet pays no dividend, so there are no ex-dividend dates)

For the wider macro and tech-spending backdrop, see our Economic Calendar, and join the discussion on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 31 Oct 2026

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) is a hybrid-cloud, AI and infrastructure company. It earns most of its profit from software (Red Hat, automation, data and transaction processing), alongside IT consulting and IBM Z mainframe and Power systems. FY2025 revenue rose 7.6% to $67.5bn, operating EPS was $11.59 and IBM-defined free cash flow was $14.7bn. 2026 has been uneven. IBM warned on 14 Jul 2026 that Q2 had fallen short, as large deals slipped and mainframe sales dropped, and cut its constant-currency growth outlook to 4–5%. Q3 2026 then showed revenue up 5% to $17.10bn, software up 8% and operating EPS up 11% to $2.95, and IBM raised its free cash flow outlook. Since the last version of this report (17 Jun 2026) IBM has reported Q2 and Q3 2026, completed the HRL Laboratories acquisition, agreed a partnership with OpenAI and been selected for Stage C of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative. All figures come from IBM’s earnings releases and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	IBM / NYSE
CEO / Leadership	Arvind Krishna, Chairman, President and CEO; James Kavanaugh, SVP Finance & Operations and CFO; Gary Cohn, Vice Chairman; Rob Thomas, SVP Software and Chief Commercial Officer
Sector	Technology — software, IT consulting and enterprise infrastructure
Headquarters	Armonk, New York
Employees	~264,300 at IBM and wholly owned subsidiaries at 31 Dec 2025 (2025 Annual Report)
Market cap	~$243.7bn ($257.81 at 30 Oct 2026 close × 945.12m shares per the Q3 2026 10-Q cover)
FY2025 Revenue	$67,535m (+7.6%; +6% at constant currency)
FY2025 earnings	GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations $11.14 (including a tax-audit benefit); operating (non-GAAP) EPS $11.59; net income ~$10.6bn
Q3 2026	Revenue $17,103m (+5%); GAAP EPS $2.31; operating EPS $2.95; free cash flow $3,027m
Dividend	$1.69 quarterly ($6.76 annualised), the 31st consecutive annual increase; ~2.6% yield at $257.81

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Software growth back on track: Q3 2026 software revenue rose 8.2% to $7.80bn, with Red Hat up 11% and Data up 19% helped by Confluent. Software was 45.6% of Q3 revenue.
• Strong and rising cash generation: IBM-defined free cash flow was $14.7bn in FY2025 and $7.8bn in the first nine months of 2026, and IBM now expects 2026 free cash flow to grow by more than $1bn.
• Long dividend record: The quarterly dividend was raised to $1.69 in Apr 2026, the 31st consecutive annual increase.
• Quantum leadership: IBM committed more than $10bn to quantum computing over five years, was selected for Stage C of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative and says its Starling fault-tolerant system remains on track for 2029.
• Profitability improving: Q3 2026 operating pre-tax margin rose 70 basis points to 19.3%, and operating EPS rose 11% to $2.95.

Bear Case

• Q2 shortfall and lower outlook: On 14 Jul 2026 IBM said Q2 had fallen short as large deals slipped and clients moved spending to servers and memory, and it cut 2026 growth guidance to 4–5% at constant currency. The shares hit a 52-week low of $199.19 on 23 Jul 2026.
• Consulting stalled: Consulting revenue was flat in Q2 2026 and up only 0.2% in Q3 2026.
• Mainframe cycle turning: IBM Z revenue fell 42% in Q2 2026 and 20% in Q3 2026 as the z17 cycle laps its strong launch.
• Debt has risen: Total debt was $63.8bn at 30 Sep 2026, including $12.7bn of Financing debt, after the $11.6bn Confluent acquisition. Goodwill stood at $74.9bn.
• AI return questions: Coverage of the Q3 2026 call reported that clients are questioning the return on AI spending, and the shares fell in intraday trading on 22 Oct 2026.

3. Business Segments

IBM reports four segments. Percentages use FY2025 revenue of $67,535m; the remaining ~0.1% is other revenue.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Software	44.4% ($29,962m)	Hybrid cloud (Red Hat), automation (including HashiCorp), data (including Confluent from Mar 2026) and transaction processing software. Q3 2026 revenue $7,804m (+8.2%).
Consulting	31.2% ($21,055m)	Strategy, technology and AI consulting and intelligent operations. Q3 2026 revenue $5,335m (+0.2%).
Infrastructure	23.3% ($15,718m)	IBM Z mainframes, Power servers, storage and infrastructure support. Q3 2026 revenue $3,707m (+4.2%); IBM Z −20%, distributed infrastructure +31%.
Financing	1.1% ($737m)	Client and commercial financing for IBM hardware, software and services. Q3 2026 revenue $192m (−3.9%).

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. IBM sells software subscriptions and support, consulting projects and outsourcing, and mainframe and server systems to large companies and governments. Software carries the highest margins, and IBM’s Q3 2026 operating gross margin was 58.5%.

Switching costs. Banks, insurers, airlines and governments run core transaction systems on IBM Z mainframes and related software. Moving those systems is costly and risky, which supports recurring software, support and upgrade revenue over many years.

Hybrid cloud platform. Red Hat OpenShift and Linux let clients run applications across their own data centres and public clouds. IBM builds its automation (HashiCorp), data (Confluent, watsonx) and AI products on top of that platform and sells them with its consultants.

Research and patents. IBM spent $8.3bn on research and development in FY2025. Its research arm underpins its quantum computing, semiconductor and AI work.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from IBM’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Adjusted EPS is IBM’s operating (non-GAAP) EPS. Long-term debt is the non-current amount on the year-end balance sheet and includes IBM Financing debt.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$57,350m	+3.9%	$5.21	$7.93	$6.55	$44,917m
FY2022	$60,530m	+5.5%	$1.95	$9.13	$6.59	$46,189m
FY2023	$61,860m	+2.2%	$8.15	$9.62	$6.63	$50,121m
FY2024	$62,753m	+1.4%	$6.42	$10.33	$6.67	$49,884m
FY2025	$67,535m	+7.6%	$11.14	$11.59	$6.71	$54,836m

FY2021 revenue is restated for the Kyndryl separation, and growth is against FY2020 revenue of $55,179m on the same basis. GAAP EPS is from continuing operations; FY2022 includes a $5.9bn pension settlement charge and FY2025 a tax-audit benefit. Dividends are cash paid per share.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 2026	$17,103m	$2.95	$2.31
Q2 2026	$17,162m	$2.93	$2.27
Q1 2026	$15,917m	$1.91	$1.28
Q4 2025	$19,686m	$4.52	$5.86
Q3 2025	$16,331m	$2.65	$1.84
Q2 2025	$16,977m	$2.80	$2.31
Q1 2025	$14,541m	$1.60	$1.12
FY2025 total	$67,535m	$11.59	$11.14

Over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026, revenue was ~$69.9bn, GAAP EPS ~$11.73 and operating EPS ~$12.32. Q4 2025 GAAP EPS included a tax-audit benefit.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL data and IBM’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $13,193m in FY2025; $11,791m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026; ~$15,831m trailing twelve months.
• Capital expenditure: payments for property, plant and equipment were $1,091m in FY2025 and $793m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026, ~$1,175m trailing twelve months. IBM’s own free cash flow measure also deducts investment in software and excludes changes in Financing receivables: $14,734m in FY2025 and $7,787m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $5,021m in FY2025 (depreciation $2,284m plus intangible amortisation $2,737m); ~$5,297m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Sep 2026: short-term debt $7,013m and long-term debt $56,804m, ~$63,817m in total, of which ~$12.7bn supports IBM Financing.
• Cash at 30 Sep 2026: cash and equivalents $9,233m plus marketable securities $1,825m, ~$11,058m in total.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$243.7bn (price $257.81 at 30 Oct 2026 close × 945.12m shares)
Enterprise value	~$296.4bn (market cap ~$243.7bn + total debt ~$63.8bn − cash and marketable securities ~$11.1bn per 30 Sep 2026 balance sheet). Total debt includes ~$12.7bn of Financing debt backed by client receivables
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~22.0x (price $257.81 / TTM GAAP EPS from continuing operations ~$11.73, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). On TTM operating EPS of ~$12.32 the multiple is ~20.9x
P/E (forward)	n/m — IBM guides revenue growth and free cash flow, not EPS, and ChartsView does not use analyst estimates
P/S (TTM)	~3.49x ($243.7bn / TTM revenue ~$69.9bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~16.7x (EV ~$296.4bn / TTM EBITDA ~$17.7bn; IBM does not report an operating income line, so EBITDA = pre-tax income from continuing operations ~$10.5bn + interest expense ~$1.9bn + D&A ~$5.3bn from the cash flow statement)
P/FCF	~16.6x (market cap ~$243.7bn / TTM FCF ~$14.7bn; FCF = operating CF $15.8bn − capex $1.2bn, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). On IBM’s own TTM free cash flow of ~$15.3bn the multiple is ~15.9x
Dividend yield	~2.6% ($6.76 annualised / $257.81)
52-week high	$332.46 (02 Jun 2026)
52-week low	$199.19 (23 Jul 2026)
Short interest (% of float)	~2.34% (19.9m shares at the 15 Oct 2026 settlement, Yahoo Finance; MarketBeat showed 2.57% at 30 Sep 2026)
Days to cover	~3.5 days (Yahoo Finance; MarketBeat 4.1 days at 30 Sep 2026)

7. What Are They Building

IBM is investing in quantum computing, enterprise AI and data software, and new mainframe and server hardware.

• Quantum computing: IBM committed more than $10bn over five years on 02 Jun 2026. Its roadmap runs from 120-qubit Nighthawk processors to the Kookaburra fault-tolerant module in 2026, Starling (200 logical qubits) in 2029 and Blue Jay (2,000 logical qubits) in 2033. On 28 Oct 2026 IBM reported linking two Nighthawk processors with 99% average state-transfer fidelity.
• Quantum supply chain: Anderon, an IBM company, finalised a $1bn CHIPS award with the US Department of Commerce on 16 Sep 2026 for a quantum wafer foundry, and IBM completed the HRL Laboratories acquisition on 26 Aug 2026.
• Data and AI software: The $11.6bn Confluent acquisition closed on 17 Mar 2026 and drove 19% growth in Data revenue in Q3. IBM is also building watsonx, the IBM Bob coding agent and AI agent identity tools based on HashiCorp Vault.
• AI partnerships: IBM signed a strategic partnership with OpenAI on 13 Aug 2026, a multi-year GPU inference agreement with Together AI on IBM Cloud on 11 Aug 2026, and expanded its enterprise AI agent work with Nvidia on 27 Oct 2026.
• Systems: Compact z17 and LinuxONE 5 systems launched on 07 Jul 2026, and a next-generation processor with both IBM and Arm architectures for Z and LinuxONE was unveiled on 24 Aug 2026.
• R&D: Research and development spending was $6.86bn in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026, up from $6.13bn a year earlier.

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8. Competitive Landscape

IBM competes with cloud and software platforms, IT services firms and server makers. Market caps are 30 Oct 2026 values from Yahoo Finance quote pages. Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Microsoft (MSFT)	~$3.88tn	FY2025 (Jun year-end) revenue $281.7bn, per Microsoft FY2025 Q4 release
Oracle (ORCL)	~$396.1bn	FY2025 (May year-end) revenue $57.4bn, per Oracle Q4 FY2025 release
Accenture (ACN)	~$158.0bn	FY2025 (Aug year-end) revenue $69.7bn, per Accenture FY2025 release
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)	~$73.1bn	FY2025 (Oct year-end) revenue $34.3bn, per HPE FY2025 10-K

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Arvind Krishna is Chairman, President and CEO, and James Kavanaugh is CFO. Frank Baker joined the board on 01 Oct 2026. Form 4 filings in 2026 show three small open-market purchases by directors and one sale by a senior executive. Grants and shares withheld for tax are not listed.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Robert D. Thomas (SVP Software & Chief Commercial Officer)	26 Aug 2026	Sale	25,000	$230.32	~$5.76m	No 10b5-1 notation in the filing
Michael Miebach (Director)	25 Feb 2026	Purchase	434	$233.33	~$101k	Open market
Michelle Howard (Director)	25 Feb 2026	Purchase	50	$237.83	~$12k	Open market
David Farr (Director)	30 Jan 2026	Purchase	1,000	$304.00	$304,000	Open market

Discuss insider activity on the ChartsView Forum.

10. Key Risks

• Debt and goodwill (Financial): Total debt was $63.8bn and goodwill $74.9bn at 30 Sep 2026 after the Confluent and HashiCorp deals. Weak acquisition returns could lead to impairments, and IBM lists its debt level and credit ratings as risks.
• Deal timing and mainframe cycle (Market): Results depend on large deals closing at quarter-end and on the IBM Z product cycle. Both hurt Q2 2026, when IBM Z revenue fell 42%.
• Consulting and AI disruption (Market): Consulting has been flat in 2026, and generative AI could reduce demand for traditional IT services or shift client budgets elsewhere.
• Acquisition integration (Operational): IBM spent $11.4bn on acquisitions in the first nine months of 2026 and must integrate Confluent, HRL and others to deliver the expected growth.
• Currency, trade and regulation (Macro): About 60% of revenue comes from outside the US, exposing IBM to currency moves, tariffs, export controls and AI regulation.
• Cybersecurity and suppliers (Operational): IBM relies on sole-source suppliers for some processor technology, and a security breach would damage a business built on trusted enterprise systems.
• Pension obligations (Financial): Retirement-related obligations were $8.45bn at 30 Sep 2026, and market or interest-rate moves can require extra contributions.

11. Recent Developments

• 28 Oct 2026 — Quantum processors linked. IBM reported linking two 120-qubit Nighthawk processors with 99% average state-transfer fidelity; it also announced a five-year renewal with the USTA.
• 27 Oct 2026 — AI agent tools and Nvidia work. At TechXchange IBM launched identity and controls for AI agents based on HashiCorp Vault and expanded its enterprise AI agent work with Nvidia.
• 21 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 5% to $17.10bn, software rose 8.2%, operating EPS rose 11% to $2.95 and free cash flow was $3.03bn. IBM raised its 2026 free cash flow growth outlook to more than $1bn and declared a $1.69 dividend.
• 07 Oct 2026 — DARPA selection. IBM was selected for Stage C of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.
• 16 Sep 2026 — CHIPS award. Anderon, an IBM company, finalised a $1bn CHIPS award for quantum wafer manufacturing.
• 26 Aug 2026 — HRL acquisition completed. IBM closed its purchase of HRL Laboratories, announced on 23 Jul 2026; terms were not disclosed.
• 17 Aug 2026 — Canadian bond issue. IBM closed a C$2.75bn maple bond offering due 2030 and 2034.
• 13 Aug 2026 — OpenAI partnership. IBM and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership.
• 22 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 1% to $17.16bn and operating EPS was $2.93. Full-year guidance was set at 4–5% constant-currency growth, down from more than 5%.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Q2 shortfall flagged. In a letter to investors, Arvind Krishna said IBM had “faltered” in Q2 as large deals slipped, clients shifted spending to servers and memory, and IBM Z and transaction processing fell short.

Macro data that move technology stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 10 Nov 2026 — record date for the $1.69 quarterly dividend
• 10 Dec 2026 — payment of the $1.69 quarterly dividend
• Expected late Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced; FY2025 results were released on 28 Jan 2026)
• Expected 2026 — Kookaburra, the first fault-tolerant quantum module on IBM’s roadmap
• Expected 2029 — Starling fault-tolerant quantum computer in Poughkeepsie, New York

IBM has not yet confirmed its Q4 2026 results date.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 01 Nov 2026

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) designs and manufactures x86 processors for PCs and data centres and is building Intel Foundry into a contract chip manufacturer for outside customers. FY2025 revenue was $52.9bn, flat on FY2024, with a small GAAP loss per share of $(0.06) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42. 2026 has brought a sharp change in the data-centre business: Q3 2026 revenue rose 21% to $16.5bn, data-centre (DCAI) revenue rose 78% and non-GAAP EPS was $0.52. But on 30 Oct 2026 the shares fell 28.6% to $65.76, after Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15.0–16.0bn, said 2027 would be an investment year without positive free cash flow, and set out the cost of a fatal explosion at its Fab 28 plant in Israel. Since the last version of this report (17 Jun 2026) Intel has also raised about $23bn in its first public share offering since 1971 and agreed to buy quantum software company Classiq. All figures come from Intel’s earnings releases and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	INTC / NASDAQ
CEO / Leadership	Lip-Bu Tan, CEO; David Zinsner, EVP and CFO; Dr Craig H. Barratt, Chair (since the 13 May 2026 annual meeting); Naga Chandrasekaran, EVP, Chief Technology & Operations Officer and GM of Intel Foundry
Sector	Technology — semiconductors (CPUs, AI accelerators and contract chip manufacturing)
Headquarters	Santa Clara, California
Employees	~81,100 at 26 Sep 2026 (Intel ~76,500 plus Mobileye and other subsidiaries ~4,600), down from ~85,100 at Dec 2025
Market cap	~$349.5bn ($65.76 at 30 Oct 2026 close × 5,315m shares per the Q3 2026 10-Q cover)
FY2025 Revenue	$52,853m (−0.5% on FY2024)
FY2025 earnings	GAAP EPS $(0.06); non-GAAP EPS $0.42; net loss attributable to Intel $(267)m; GAAP operating loss $(2,214)m
Q3 2026	Revenue $16,513m (+21%); GAAP EPS $0.60 (including a $1,005m mark-to-market gain); non-GAAP EPS $0.52; operating cash flow $5,082m
Dividend	Suspended since Q4 2024; terms of Intel’s CHIPS Act agreement restrict dividends

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Data-centre demand surging: DCAI revenue rose 78% to $7.32bn in Q3 2026 with $3.04bn of operating income, and Intel guided DCAI up by a mid-teens percentage again in Q4.
• Foundry revenue scaling: Intel Foundry revenue rose 58% to $6.70bn in Q3 2026, and the 18A process is in high-volume manufacturing in Arizona and Oregon.
• Large cash buffer: Cash and short-term investments were ~$54.0bn at 26 Sep 2026 after the ~$23bn share offering in Aug 2026, and the revolving credit facility was raised to $15bn.
• Strategic backers: The US government owns ~9.9% after its Aug 2025 investment, Nvidia invested $5bn and SoftBank $2bn, and Oracle announced a multiyear Xeon collaboration on 27 Oct 2026.
• Earnings recovering on a non-GAAP basis: Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.52 compared with $0.23 a year earlier and was above Intel’s own $0.38 guidance.

Bear Case

• Weak Q4 outlook and Fab 28 disruption: Q4 2026 guidance of $15.0–16.0bn revenue and 38.0% non-GAAP gross margin includes ~$300m of lost revenue from the 14 Oct 2026 Fab 28 explosion, with a similar hit expected in Q1 2027.
• PC business shrinking: Client (CCPG) revenue fell 5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down more than 20% sequentially in Q4, with the CFO expecting weakness at least through H1 2027.
• Foundry still loss-making: Intel Foundry lost $1.85bn at the operating level in Q3 2026 and $10.3bn in FY2025, and external foundry revenue was only $411m in Q3. No large 14A customer has been announced.
• No positive free cash flow expected in 2027: Management called 2027 an investment year with rising capex, after gross capex of ~$15.9bn in the four quarters to Sep 2026.
• Share loss and dilution: Mercury Research put Intel’s x86 share at 65.9% in Q2 2026, down from 70.6% a year earlier, and shares outstanding rose from 4,994m to 5,315m during 2026.

3. Business Segments

Intel reports Intel Products (CCPG and DCAI), Intel Foundry and All Other. Most Foundry revenue is wafer sales to Intel Products, which are eliminated on consolidation, so percentages below use Q3 2026 external revenue of $16,513m. Altera was deconsolidated after Intel sold 51% to Silver Lake on 12 Sep 2025.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Client Computing and Physical AI Group (CCPG)	49.0% ($8,097m in Q3 2026, −5%)	Core Ultra PC processors (Panther Lake on 18A) and edge and physical-AI chips. Renamed from CCG in 2026. Q3 operating income $2,285m.
Data Center and AI (DCAI)	44.3% ($7,318m in Q3 2026, +78%)	Xeon server processors (Granite Rapids, Clearwater Forest), AI accelerators and networking. Q3 operating income $3,039m.
Intel Foundry	2.5% external ($411m external; $6,697m including sales to Intel Products, +58%)	Process technology, wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging for Intel and outside customers. Q3 operating loss $(1,853)m.
All Other	4.2% ($692m in Q3 2026, −30%)	Mobileye (Intel owned ~77% at Mar 2026) and other businesses. Q3 operating income $179m.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Intel sells x86 processors to PC makers and to cloud, enterprise and government data-centre buyers, and it manufactures most of those chips itself. Intel Foundry charges Intel Products for wafers and is trying to win outside customers on the 18A and 14A processes and in advanced packaging. Q3 2026 non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%.

Where the moat comes from. The x86 software ecosystem and Intel’s installed base in PCs and servers keep it as the largest x86 supplier. It is also the only US-headquartered company running leading-edge logic manufacturing at scale, which has brought CHIPS Act support, a US government shareholding and investments from Nvidia and SoftBank.

Why it is fragile. AMD has taken PC and server share, Arm designs are growing in data centres, and TSMC leads in contract manufacturing. Rebuilding the foundry needs heavy capex for years and depends on winning external customers, which Intel has said it must secure before fully committing to 14A.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Intel’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Adjusted EPS is Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. Long-term debt is the non-current amount on the year-end balance sheet. Dividends are declared per share.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$79,024m	+1.5%	$4.86	$5.47	~$1.39	$33,510m
FY2022	$63,054m	−20.2%	$1.94	$1.84†	$1.46	$37,684m
FY2023	$54,228m	−14.0%	$0.40	$1.05	$0.74	$46,978m
FY2024	$53,101m	−2.1%	$(4.38)	$(0.13)	$0.38	$46,282m
FY2025	$52,853m	−0.5%	$(0.06)	$0.42	Nil (suspended)	$44,086m

FY2021 growth is against FY2020 revenue of $77,867m. † FY2022 non-GAAP EPS as originally reported; Intel restated it to $1.67 when it moved to a fixed long-term tax rate in 2023, so non-GAAP EPS is not on one basis across all years. FY2024 GAAP EPS includes large impairment, restructuring and tax valuation allowance charges.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 2026	$16,513m	$0.52	$0.60
Q2 2026	$16,128m	$0.42	$(2.16)
Q1 2026	$13,577m	$0.29	$(0.73)
Q4 2025	$13,674m	$0.15	$(0.12)
Q3 2025	$13,653m	$0.23	$0.90
Q2 2025	$12,859m	$(0.10)	$(0.67)
Q1 2025	$12,667m	$0.13	$(0.19)
FY2025 total	$52,853m	$0.42	$(0.06)

GAAP EPS in 2026 has been moved by large non-cash items: a $12,529m mark-to-market loss on shares held in escrow for the US government in Q2, a $1,005m gain on the same shares in Q3, and $4,070m of restructuring and other charges in Q1, mostly a $3.9bn Mobileye goodwill impairment. Over the four quarters to 26 Sep 2026, revenue was $59,892m, GAAP EPS ~$(2.41) and non-GAAP EPS ~$1.38.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL data and Intel’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $9,697m in FY2025; $13,184m in the nine months to 26 Sep 2026; $17,472m trailing twelve months.
• Capital expenditure: additions to property, plant and equipment in investing activities were $14,646m in FY2025 and $10,216m in the nine months to 26 Sep 2026, $13,704m trailing twelve months. Intel’s own gross capex measure, which adds capex funded through financing arrangements, was $17,672m in FY2025 and ~$15,855m trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $11,706m in FY2025 (depreciation $10,757m plus intangible amortisation $949m); $12,619m trailing twelve months.
• Operating income: GAAP operating loss of $(2,214)m in FY2025; GAAP operating income of $1,762m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 26 Sep 2026: short-term debt $3,817m and long-term debt $46,317m, $50,134m in total.
• Cash at 26 Sep 2026: cash and equivalents $21,846m plus short-term investments $32,159m, $54,005m in total.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$349.5bn (price $65.76 at 30 Oct 2026 close × 5,315m shares)
Enterprise value	~$345.6bn (market cap ~$349.5bn + total debt ~$50.1bn − cash and short-term investments ~$54.0bn per 26 Sep 2026 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m — TTM GAAP EPS was a loss of ~$(2.41) (Q4 2025–Q3 2026), driven by the Q2 2026 mark-to-market loss. On TTM non-GAAP EPS of ~$1.38 the multiple is ~47.7x
P/E (forward)	~44x ($65.76 / FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of ~$1.48 implied by Q1–Q3 actuals plus Intel’s $0.25 Q4 guidance)
P/S (TTM)	~5.84x ($349.5bn / TTM revenue $59.9bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~24.0x (EV ~$345.6bn / TTM EBITDA ~$14.4bn; EBITDA = GAAP operating income $1.76bn + D&A $12.62bn from the cash flow statement, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). Operating income includes large restructuring and impairment charges
P/FCF	~93x (market cap ~$349.5bn / TTM FCF ~$3.8bn; FCF = operating CF $17.5bn − PP&E additions $13.7bn, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). On Intel’s gross capex of ~$15.9bn, TTM FCF is ~$1.6bn and the multiple ~216x
Dividend yield	Nil (dividend suspended)
52-week high	$142.35
52-week low	$32.89
Short interest (% of float)	~2.95% (148.5m shares at the 15 Oct 2026 settlement, MarketBeat; Yahoo Finance shows 2.80%). This predates the 30 Oct 2026 fall
Days to cover	~1.5 days (MarketBeat, on average volume of 115.5m shares; Yahoo Finance 1.36)

7. What Are They Building

Intel is spending on new process nodes, server and PC products, AI accelerators, packaging and US fabs.

• Intel 18A and 18A-P: 18A is in high-volume manufacturing in Arizona (Fab 52) and Oregon. 18A-P entered risk production in Q2 2026, and Intel says Nova Lake, its first 18A-P client processor, is tracking ahead of schedule, with details due at CES 2027.
• Intel 14A: The 0.9 process design kit was released in Oct 2026. Intel had said it expected customer decisions on 14A in H2 2026; none had been announced by 1 Nov 2026. Coral Rapids server chips on 14A are planned for 2028.
• Server processors: Clearwater Forest (Xeon 6+, up to 288 efficient cores), the first 18A server chip, launched around 01 Jun 2026 and is shipping for revenue. Granite Rapids on Intel 3 is now the largest server family, and Diamond Rapids is sampling for 2027. Some Oregon capacity is being moved from Panther Lake to Intel 3 to build more server wafers.
• PC processors: Panther Lake (Core Ultra Series 3) on 18A launched at CES on 05 Jan 2026. Intel says its gross margins are still below the corporate average.
• AI accelerators: The Intel GPU D-series inference chip (formerly Crescent Island) was detailed at OCP 2026.
• Packaging and fabs: Intel is working with Lens Technology on glass substrates, began installing tools at Fab 62 in Arizona in Oct 2026 for operation in 2028, and put up the first roof truss at Ohio One, where Intel’s timeline is 2030–31 for the first module.
• Quantum software: Intel agreed on 26 Oct 2026 to buy Classiq, with closing expected in H1 2027.

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8. Competitive Landscape

Intel competes with x86 rival AMD, AI chip leader Nvidia, Arm-based designs and contract manufacturers TSMC and Samsung. Market caps are 30 Oct 2026 closing values (Yahoo Finance; Samsung from CompaniesMarketCap). Metrics come from each company’s latest full-year results.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Nvidia (NVDA)	~$4.94tn	FY2026 (Jan 2026 year-end) revenue $215.9bn, +65%, per Nvidia Q4 FY2026 release
TSMC (TSM)	~$2.11tn	2025 revenue ~US$122bn, +35.9% in US dollars, per TSMC Q4 2025 earnings call
Samsung Electronics	~$1.11tn	2025 revenue KRW 333.6tn and operating profit KRW 43.6tn, per Samsung FY2025 results
AMD (AMD)	~$824.1bn	FY2025 revenue $34.6bn, +34%, with data-centre revenue $16.6bn, per AMD Q4 2025 release
Arm Holdings (ARM)	~$220.0bn	FY2026 (Mar 2026 year-end) revenue $4.92bn, +23%, per Arm 10-K
Qualcomm (QCOM)	~$176.0bn	FY2025 (Sep year-end) revenue $44.3bn, of which QCT chips $38.4bn, per Qualcomm 10-K

Mercury Research estimated that AMD held 34.1% of x86 processor shipments in Q2 2026 and 34.5% of server units, against Intel’s 65.9% and 65.5%.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Lip-Bu Tan is CEO and David Zinsner is CFO. Dr Craig H. Barratt became Chair at the 13 May 2026 annual meeting when Frank Yeary retired. Tan bought ~$10.0m of shares in the Aug 2026 public offering. Form 4 filings in 2026 show the purchases and sales below; grants and shares withheld for tax are not listed, and no Form 4 filings were found for Sep or Oct 2026.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Lip-Bu Tan (CEO, Director)	11 Aug 2026	Purchase	105,263	$95.00	~$10.0m	Bought in the public offering; not a 10b5-1 trade
Naga Chandrasekaran (EVP, CTO & Operations, GM Intel Foundry)	29 May 2026	Sale	21,024	$118.28	~$2.49m	No 10b5-1 notation found in the filing
April Miller Boise (EVP, Chief Legal Officer)	01 May 2026	Sale	40,256	$99.53	~$4.01m	Not verified
April Miller Boise (EVP, Chief Legal Officer)	02 Feb 2026	Sale	20,000	$49.05	~$981k	Not verified
David Zinsner (EVP, CFO)	26 Jan 2026	Purchase	5,882	$42.50	~$250k	Open market

Discuss insider activity on the ChartsView Forum.

10. Key Risks

• PC downturn (Market): Client revenue fell 5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down more than 20% sequentially in Q4, with memory costs and supply weighing on PC demand at least through H1 2027.
• Share loss to AMD and Arm (Market): Intel’s x86 share fell to 65.9% in Q2 2026 from 70.6% a year earlier, and AMD’s EPYC held 46.4% against Xeon on a like-for-like server basis.
• Foundry execution and customers (Operational): Intel Foundry lost $1.85bn in Q3 2026 and external revenue was $411m. Intel’s own risk factors link 14A investment to winning outside commitments.
• Israel operations (Operational): The 14 Oct 2026 Fab 28 explosion killed two workers, shut the fab for about two weeks and is expected to cost ~$600m of revenue across Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Middle East conflict risk was also cited in the Mobileye impairment.
• Supply constraints (Operational): Intel says wafer and substrate shortages will limit data-centre shipments into H1 2027.
• Cash burn and capex (Financial): Management does not expect positive free cash flow in 2027, as capex and purchase commitments rise. Total debt was $50.1bn at 26 Sep 2026.
• Dilution and earnings volatility (Financial): Shares outstanding rose ~6% in 2026, and mark-to-market moves on shares held in escrow for the US government swung GAAP results by $12.5bn in Q2 and $1.0bn in Q3.
• Further impairments (Financial): Intel booked a $3.9bn Mobileye goodwill impairment in Q1 2026 and said a 1% higher discount rate would have added ~$682m.

11. Recent Developments

• 30 Oct 2026 — Shares fall 28.6%. INTC closed at $65.76, down from $92.07, on volume of ~454m shares, after the Q3 report and Q4 outlook.
• 29 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 21% to $16.51bn and non-GAAP EPS was $0.52, both above Intel’s guidance. Q4 guidance was $15.0–16.0bn revenue and $0.25 non-GAAP EPS, and management said 2027 will be an investment year with no positive free cash flow expected.
• 27 Oct 2026 — Oracle collaboration. Oracle and Intel announced a multiyear collaboration, including planned OCI instances on Diamond Rapids Xeon processors.
• 26 Oct 2026 — Classiq acquisition agreed. Intel signed a definitive agreement to buy Israeli quantum software company Classiq; the price was not disclosed and closing is expected in H1 2027.
• 21 Oct 2026 — US fab progress. Tool installation began at Fab 62 in Arizona, and the first roof truss was installed at Ohio One.
• 14 Oct 2026 — Fab 28 explosion. An explosion at Intel’s Kiryat Gat site in Israel killed two workers and seriously injured a third. Intel puts the revenue impact at ~$600m across Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, mostly Intel 7 server products.
• 12 Aug 2026 — Share offering closed. Intel completed a ~$23bn common stock offering at $95 per share, including the full over-allotment, with net proceeds of $22,617m. It was Intel’s first public share offering since its 1971 IPO.

Macro data that move chip stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 03 Nov 2026 — AMD Q3 2026 results, a read-across for PC and server demand
• Expected 21 Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced by Intel; FY2025 results were released on 22 Jan 2026)
• Expected Jan 2027 — Nova Lake details at CES 2027
• Expected H1 2027 — completion of the Classiq acquisition; Fab 28 revenue impact of ~$300m in Q1 2027
• Expected 2027 — Diamond Rapids Xeon launch
• Expected 2028 — Fab 62 in Arizona begins operation; Coral Rapids on Intel 14A

Intel has not yet confirmed its Q4 2026 results date or its 2027 annual meeting date.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 29 October 2026

The Sage Group plc sells accounting, finance, payroll and HR software to small and mid-sized businesses, mainly by subscription, in North America, the UK and Ireland, Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific. Its fiscal year ends on 30 September. Since the last version of this report (14 June 2026) Sage has finished its second £300m share buyback, reported nine-month revenue growth of 11% and kept its guidance of more than 9% organic growth for FY2026, refinanced a €500m bond, and bought two US construction software businesses, Bangert and Paperless Environments. FY2026 results are due on 19 November 2026. Every figure below comes from Sage's results announcements, trading updates, annual report and RNS notifications. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings anywhere in it.

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / exchange	SGE — London Stock Exchange; US ADRs trade over the counter as SGPYY
Sector	Technology — accounting, financial management, payroll and HR software for small and mid-sized businesses
Revenue (FY2025)	£2,513m statutory revenue for the year to 30 September 2025 (FY2024: £2,332m), up 8%; underlying total revenue growth +10% (organic +9%)
Recurring revenue and ARR	97% of revenue is recurring; annualised recurring revenue (ARR) £2,574m at 30 September 2025 and £2,727m at 31 March 2026, up 11%
Operating profit (FY2025)	Underlying £600m at a 23.9% margin (prior year 22.4%); statutory £530m, up 17%
EPS (FY2025)	Statutory basic EPS 37.74p, up 18%; underlying basic EPS 43.2p, up 18%
Dividend per share	21.85p total dividend for FY2025 (interim 7.45p, final 14.40p), up 7%; FY2026 interim dividend 8.05p, up 8%
Net debt	£1,189m at 30 September 2025 (1.7x underlying EBITDA); £1,504m at 31 March 2026 (2.0x) after £600m of buybacks
Employees	11,170 colleagues worldwide at 30 September 2025, including 84 contractors (2025 Annual Report)
CEO / Leadership	Steve Hare, Chief Executive Officer; Jacqui Cartin, Chief Financial Officer; Andrew Duff, Chair
Shares in issue	905,569,571 voting shares at 30 September 2026 (959,080,955 issued, less 53,511,384 in treasury); 949,683,721 voting shares in February 2026

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Recurring revenue base: 97% of revenue is recurring, subscription penetration reached 84% in H1 FY2026, ARR grew 11% to £2,727m and the renewal rate by value rose to 102%.
• Cloud native growth: cloud native revenue grew 25% to £794m in the nine months to 30 June 2026, and Sage Intacct revenue in the US grew 26% in H1 FY2026 to about half of Sage's US revenue.
• Rising margins: the underlying operating margin rose to 23.9% in FY2025 from 22.4%, was 23.9% again in H1 FY2026 (prior year 23.1%), and management expects margins to keep trending upwards in FY2026 and beyond.
• Large cash returns: Sage completed two £300m buybacks in H1 FY2026, cancelling 64.2m shares, after a £600m programme in FY2025; the FY2026 interim dividend rose 8% to 8.05p.

Bear Case

• AI pressure on software: new AI tools have raised investor concern about subscription software models, and Sage widened its principal risk on data strategy in FY2024 to cover AI.
• Leverage at the top of the range: net debt to underlying EBITDA rose from 1.2x in FY2024 to 1.7x in FY2025 and 2.0x at 31 March 2026, the top of Sage's 1x–2x target range, as buybacks were partly funded with new bonds.
• Flat free cash flow: Sage's free cash flow was £517m in FY2025 against £524m in FY2024, and £241m in H1 FY2026 against £246m, as higher interest and tax payments offset growth.
• Slower Europe: Europe grew 7% in the nine months to 30 June 2026, half the 14% growth in North America, and Central Europe grew only 4% in H1 FY2026.

3. Revenue Segments

Sage reports three regional segments. Shares below are of FY2025 underlying total revenue of £2,513m.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
North America (£1,138m)	45.3%	The US (£997m) and Canada (£141m). Led by Sage Intacct, whose US revenue grew 23% to £461m in FY2025. Growth +12% in FY2025 and +14% in the nine months to 30 June 2026 (£932m).
UKIA (£729m)	29.0%	UK and Ireland (£554m, +10%) plus Africa and Asia Pacific (£175m): Sage Accounting, Sage 50, Sage 200, payroll and HR. Growth +9% in FY2025 and +10% in the nine months to 30 June 2026 (£602m).
Europe (£646m)	25.7%	France (£324m), Iberia (£167m) and Central Europe (£155m). Growth +7% in FY2025 and +7% in the nine months to 30 June 2026 (£528m).

By product, Sage Business Cloud revenue was £2,083m in FY2025 (83% of the total, +13%), including cloud native revenue of £885m (+23%). Subscription revenue was £2,093m (+12%). Follow sterling and US software markets on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Sage charges businesses a subscription for accounting, financial management, payroll, HR and payments software, sold directly and through accountants and reseller partners. Almost all revenue is recurring (97% in FY2025), and growth comes from new customers (new-customer ARR of £200m in FY2025), price and moving existing customers to cloud products. Underlying cash conversion was 110% in FY2025.

The moat. Accounting and payroll systems hold a business's financial records and are costly to change, which shows in a renewal rate by value of 101% in FY2025 and 102% in H1 FY2026. Sage also relies on its network of accountants and partners, and on local tax and payroll compliance in each country, which takes years to build.

Capital allocation. Sage targets net debt of 1x–2x underlying EBITDA. It returned £605m by buybacks and £207m by dividends in FY2025, and spent £82m on acquisitions. Return on capital employed was 31%.

5. Financial Health

Sage reports in sterling under IFRS for years to 30 September. Revenue below is statutory revenue as first reported. GAAP EPS is statutory basic EPS; Adjusted EPS is underlying basic EPS as first reported (Sage later restates underlying EPS at current exchange rates, for example FY2024 underlying EPS to 36.7p). Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at each year end.

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	1,846	−3.0%	26.33p	23.09p	17.68p	£749m
FY2022	1,947	+5.5%	25.47p	25.74p	18.40p	£1,044m
FY2023	2,184	+12.2%	20.75p	32.3p	19.30p	£1,243m
FY2024	2,332	+6.8%	32.10p	37.9p	20.45p	£1,231m
FY2025	2,513	+7.8%	37.74p	43.2p	21.85p	£1,562m

FY2021 growth is against FY2020 statutory revenue of £1,903m. Sources: Sage full-year results announcements for FY2021 to FY2025. The FY2021 non-current borrowings figure is the comparative in the FY2022 balance sheet.

Quarter / Half	Revenue (£m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2026)	699 (+12%)	Not reported quarterly	Not reported quarterly
H1 FY2026 (Oct 2025–Mar 2026)	1,363 (+10% statutory, +11% underlying)	23.7p	20.7p
Q1 FY2026 (Oct–Dec 2025)	674 (+10%)	Not reported quarterly	Not reported quarterly
FY2025 total	2,513	43.2p	37.74p

Sage publishes full results half-yearly and revenue-only trading updates for Q1 and Q3; quarterly revenue is underlying revenue. Nine-month FY2026 underlying revenue was £2,062m, up 11% (organic +10%). H1 FY2025 statutory revenue was £1,242m and statutory basic EPS 18.2p; H1 FY2025 underlying basic EPS was 20.5p as restated.

Cash flow and balance sheet. In FY2025 cash generated from operations was £675m and net cash from operating activities, after £46m of interest and £101m of tax, was £528m. Capital expenditure was £59m (property, plant and equipment £41m, intangibles £18m). Depreciation and amortisation was £90m (amortisation £60m, including £42m on acquired intangibles, and depreciation £30m); underlying D&A was £48m. At 30 September 2025 cash and cash equivalents were £390m, current borrowings £17m and non-current borrowings £1,562m. At 31 March 2026 cash was £518m and non-current borrowings £2,007m after a €500m bond issued in February 2026.

Outlook. In May 2026 Sage raised its FY2026 guidance to organic total revenue growth above 9%, with operating margins trending upwards in FY2026 and beyond. It repeated this on 29 July 2026 and said currency effects were broadly neutral.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Underlying operating profit	£600m for FY2025 at a 23.9% margin; £326m for H1 FY2026, up 15%, at a 23.9% margin
Underlying basic EPS	43.2p for FY2025; 23.7p for H1 FY2026, up 16%
EBITDA (FY2025)	Underlying EBITDA £694m (27.6% margin, Sage measure); statutory EBITDA about £620m = statutory operating profit £530m plus D&A £90m (wider total, including acquired-intangible amortisation, from the FY2025 accounts)
Free cash flow	About £469m for FY2025: net cash from operating activities £528m less capital expenditure £59m (FY2025 cash flow statement); Sage's own free cash flow measure was £517m
Net debt	Total borrowings £1,579m (£17m current plus £1,562m non-current) less cash £390m = £1,189m at 30 September 2025 (1.7x underlying EBITDA); £1,504m at 31 March 2026 (2.0x on last-twelve-month underlying EBITDA of £742m)
Return on capital employed	31% for FY2025
Dividend per share	21.85p for FY2025; 8.05p interim for FY2026
Short interest (% of float)	No net short positions of 0.5% or more disclosed to the FCA at 29 October 2026 (latest disclosed: AKO Capital 0.52% on 29 June 2026, via Investegate's FCA list); US ADR line SGPYY 446 ADRs short, 0.00% of float, at 15 October 2026 (MarketBeat)
Days to cover	0.0 days for the SGPYY ADR line (MarketBeat, 15 October 2026); not published for the London line

7. What Are They Building

AI in the products. Sage is adding AI agents across its range and deepened its collaboration with AWS on 29 April 2026. On 25 August 2026 Sage Intacct added AI-based accounts-payable anomaly detection, Smart Reporting for Excel, a customer payments portal and lending management. Sage X3 received AI updates for manufacturers and distributors on 25 June 2026.

Construction software. Sage bought Bangert, an AI-enabled onboarding partner for Sage Intacct Construction, on 18 August 2026, and Paperless Environments, a Baton Rouge provider of construction accounts-payable automation and subcontractor compliance software with over 1,400 customers, on 1 October 2026. Terms of both deals were not disclosed.

New products and partners. Sage HCM launched on 23 April 2026. Sage embeds its accounting tools with banks and payment firms including HSBC, Monzo, Tide and SumUp, and on 26 October 2026 Findity and Sage launched Sage Expenses for Sage 50 customers in Spain.

New product leadership. Krish Vitaldevara joined as Chief Product Officer on 18 May 2026 and Anand Swaminathan as Chief Strategy Officer on 15 June 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Sage competes with global and local accounting and business software providers, from small-business cloud accounting to mid-market finance systems.

Peer	Key latest fiscal-year metric
Intuit (INTU)	FY2026 (to July) revenue $21.448bn, up 14%; Global Business Solutions $12.9bn, up 16% (Intuit Q4 FY2026 earnings release)
Xero (XRO, ASX)	FY2026 (to March) operating revenue NZ$2,753.1m, up 31% (28% in constant currency, including the Melio acquisition); 4.92m customers (Xero FY2026 results)
Oracle NetSuite (ORCL)	NetSuite not reported separately; Oracle cloud applications (SaaS) revenue $15.9bn in FY2026 (to May), up 11% (Oracle Q4 FY2026 release)
Microsoft Dynamics (MSFT)	Dynamics products and cloud services revenue $9,006m in FY2026 (to June), up about 15%; Dynamics 365 up 18% (Microsoft FY2026 Q4 release)
Workday (WDAY)	FY2026 (to January) revenue $9.552bn, up 13.1%; subscription revenue $8.833bn, up 14.5% (Workday FY2026 results)
Visma (private)	2025 revenue €2,803m, up 17.0% (organic 12.0%); ARR €2,794m (Visma preliminary 2025 results)

Sage's organic revenue growth of 10% in the nine months to 30 June 2026 compares with 14% at Intuit and 28% constant-currency growth at Xero in their latest years.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Steve Hare is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Jacqui Cartin is Chief Financial Officer. Andrew Duff is Chair and was re-elected at the AGM on 5 February 2026, where Lori Mitchell-Keller was elected a non-executive director. The directors' remuneration report was approved with 83.99% of votes in favour.

The director and PDMR dealings below were disclosed through RNS notifications in 2026. No PDMR dealing was announced in October 2026.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Krish Vitaldevara (Chief Product Officer)	28 Sep 2026	Award	1,993,661	Performance and restricted share awards (LTIP)
Anand Swaminathan (Chief Strategy Officer)	28 Sep 2026	Award	1,120,424	Restricted share awards (LTIP)
Simon Longbottom (Chief Growth Officer)	05 Sep 2026	Vesting; 4,106 sold for tax on 7 Sep	8,718 vested	Restricted share award (LTIP)
Steve Hare (CEO)	04 Aug 2026	Option exercise; none sold	2,608	Save and Share Plan
Steve Hare (CEO)	10 Jul 2026	Dividend reinvestment	6,341	Dividend reinvestment plan
Aaron Harris (Chief Technology Officer)	28 May 2026	Sale	75,000	Market sale
Amanda Cusdin (Chief People Officer)	16 Mar 2026	Sale	36,000	Market sale
Lori Mitchell-Keller (non-executive director)	17 Feb 2026	Purchase	10,000	Market purchase
Derek Harding (non-executive director)	09 Feb 2026	Purchase	10,000	Market purchase
Steve Hare; Jacqui Cartin	02 Feb 2026	Award	59,427; 181,564	Performance share awards (LTIP), vesting December 2028

10. Key Risks

• AI disruption (Strategic): AI tools could change how small businesses keep their accounts and pay for software, and Sage widened its principal risk on data strategy to cover AI and data privacy.
• Product execution (Execution): "execution of product strategy" is one of Sage's principal risks; growth depends on moving customers to cloud products and on new leaders in product and strategy delivering.
• Leverage (Financial): net debt was 2.0x underlying EBITDA at 31 March 2026, at the top of Sage's 1x–2x range, after buybacks funded partly by new bonds.
• Cyber security (Operational): Sage holds financial and payroll data for its customers, so a breach or a long outage would damage trust; cyber security is listed among its principal risks.
• Competition (Competitive): Intuit and Xero grew revenue faster than Sage in their latest years, and Oracle NetSuite and Microsoft Dynamics compete in the mid-market.
• Currency and regions (Macro): North America is 45% of revenue, so a weaker US dollar lowers reported sterling results, and growth in Europe (+7%) is slower than in North America.

11. Recent Developments

• 14 May 2026 — New product and strategy chiefs. Sage appointed Krish Vitaldevara as Chief Product Officer and Anand Swaminathan as Chief Strategy Officer.
• 21 May 2026 — H1 FY2026 results and guidance raised. Revenue rose 10% to £1,363m (underlying +11%), underlying operating profit rose 15% to £326m, underlying basic EPS rose 16% to 23.7p and the interim dividend rose 8% to 8.05p; FY2026 organic growth guidance was raised to above 9%.
• 28 May 2026 — Second £300m buyback completed. Sage bought and cancelled 34,809,318 shares under the programme that started on 2 March 2026.
• 29 Jul 2026 — Q3 FY2026 trading update. Nine-month underlying revenue rose 11% to £2,062m, with Q3 revenue up 12% to £699m and cloud native revenue up 25%; guidance was repeated.
• 18 Aug 2026 — Bangert acquired. Sage bought Bangert, which provides AI-enabled onboarding for Sage Intacct Construction.
• 25 Aug 2026 — Sage Intacct AI controls. Sage Intacct added AI-powered financial controls and new industry features.
• 08 Sep 2026 — €500m bond priced. Sage priced a €500m 4.2805% note due March 2032 and on 11 September gave notice to redeem its €500m 3.820% notes due 2028, which were repaid on 28 September 2026.
• 01 Oct 2026 — Paperless Environments acquired. Sage bought the construction accounts-payable automation and subcontractor compliance company, its second construction deal in two months.
• 26 Oct 2026 — Sage Expenses in Spain. Findity and Sage launched Sage Expenses for Sage 50 customers in Spain.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 19 Nov 2026 — FY2026 full-year results for the year to 30 September 2026, including the proposed final dividend
• Expected Jan 2027 — ex-dividend date for the FY2026 final dividend (last year: 8 January); date to be confirmed with the results
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q1 FY2027 trading update (last year: 27 January 2026)
• Expected Feb 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting (2026 AGM: 5 February 2026); date not yet confirmed
• Expected May 2027 — H1 FY2027 results (last year: 21 May 2026)

UK and US inflation data and central bank decisions that move sterling and software stocks are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar. Discuss Sage with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 23 October 2026

RELX PLC is a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional customers. Its four businesses are Risk (LexisNexis Risk Solutions), Scientific, Technical & Medical (Elsevier), Legal (LexisNexis Legal & Professional) and Exhibitions (RX). Most revenue comes from subscriptions and transactions sold to lawyers, scientists, doctors, insurers, banks and governments, and the group is building generative-AI tools into most of its products. Since the last version of this report (7 June 2026) RELX has reported 7% underlying revenue growth for the first half and the first nine months of 2026, completed the purchase of the French legal-AI platform Doctrine, launched agentic AI features across Legal and Elsevier, and continued a £2.25bn share buyback. Every figure below comes from RELX's results announcements, trading updates, RNS notices and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings anywhere in it.

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / exchange	REL.L — London Stock Exchange; also Euronext Amsterdam (REN) and NYSE (ADS: RELX)
Sector	Business information, analytics and data — risk, scientific publishing, legal and exhibitions
Revenue (FY2025)	£9,590m, up 2% reported and 7% underlying
Adjusted operating profit (FY2025)	£3,342m; margin 34.8% (reported operating profit £3,027m)
Net profit (FY2025)	£2,065m attributable to shareholders; adjusted net profit £2,358m
Earnings per share (FY2025)	Adjusted EPS 128.5p; reported diluted EPS 112.0p
H1 2026	Revenue £4,871m; underlying growth 7%; adjusted EPS 68.6p, up 8% (11% at constant currency)
Employees	37,600 full-time equivalent at 31 December 2025 (2025 Annual Report)
CEO / Leadership	Erik Engstrom, Chief Executive Officer; Nick Luff, Chief Financial Officer; Paul Walker, Chair
Headquarters	1-3 Strand, London
Reporting currency	Pounds sterling (£)

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Steady 7% underlying growth: underlying revenue grew 7% in FY2025, in H1 2026 and in the first nine months of 2026, with Legal up 10% and Risk up 8% year to date.
• AI products being adopted: Lexis+ AI and the Protégé assistant are being taken up by more than half of US new and renewing legal customers, and Elsevier's LeapSpace research workspace is reported to show rapid usage growth.
• High margins and cash conversion: the adjusted operating margin rose to 35.5% in H1 2026 from 34.8%, and cash conversion was 99% in FY2025 and 98% in H1 2026.
• Large capital returns: a £2.25bn buyback for 2026, an interim dividend up 7% to 20.9p, and 87 million treasury shares cancelled on 21 October 2026.
• Data-driven Risk franchise: Risk, the largest segment at 36% of revenue with a 37.4% margin, grew 8% underlying on AI-enabled fraud, identity and insurance analytics.

Bear Case

• AI substitution fears: on 3 February 2026 RELX shares fell sharply alongside Thomson Reuters and Wolters Kluwer after Anthropic released a legal plug-in for Claude, and RELX lists AI-driven change in customer demand as a principal risk.
• Higher leverage: net debt rose to £8,733m at 30 June 2026, 2.3 times EBITDA, from 2.0 times at the end of 2025, as buybacks were funded partly with new bonds.
• Exhibitions slowdown: Middle East disruption cut Exhibitions underlying growth to 4% for the nine months, from 6% in the first half.
• Currency and US exposure: currency reduced FY2025 revenue by 2% and adjusted operating profit by 3%, and North America is 79% of Risk revenue and 68% of Legal revenue.
• Open-access shift in STM: scientific publishing is moving from pay-to-read subscriptions towards pay-to-publish open access, while Elsevier's STM revenue is about 80% subscription.

3. Business Segments

FY2025 revenue by segment from the 2025 results announcement. Print and print-related revenue (£399m, 4.2%) is now reported separately.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Risk (£3,485m)	36.3%	LexisNexis Risk Solutions: data and analytics for insurance, fraud and identity checks, financial crime compliance and government. Underlying growth 8%; margin 37.4%.
Scientific, Technical & Medical (£2,714m)	28.3%	Elsevier: scientific journals, ScienceDirect, Scopus, ClinicalKey and research-workflow tools. Underlying growth 5%; margin 38.1%.
Legal (£1,806m)	18.8%	LexisNexis Legal & Professional: legal research, Lexis+ AI, Protégé, Lex Machina analytics and news. Underlying growth 9%; margin 23.0%.
Exhibitions (£1,186m)	12.4%	RX: organiser of trade and consumer events worldwide. Underlying growth 8%; margin 34.6%.
Print and print-related (£399m)	4.2%	Print books and journals across the businesses, reported separately from 2025.

In H1 2026 underlying growth was Risk 8%, STM 6%, Legal 10% and Exhibitions 6%. Follow information-services names on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. RELX sells access to proprietary content, data and analytics, mostly through multi-year subscriptions (about 80% of STM revenue is subscription) and per-use transactions, such as identity checks in Risk. Exhibitions earns stand and sponsorship fees from organising events.

Unit economics. The adjusted operating margin was 34.8% in FY2025 and 35.5% in H1 2026. Most costs are content, technology and people, so revenue growth largely drops through to profit. Capital expenditure was £525m in FY2025, almost all capitalised software development (£504m), and adjusted cash flow was £3,301m, 99% of adjusted operating profit.

The moat. Decades of proprietary and contributory data (insurance claims, identity records, legal judgments and commentary, peer-reviewed science) that customers rely on for high-stakes decisions, deep embedding in professional workflows, and Elsevier's position as the largest scientific publisher. The risk to the moat is that general-purpose AI tools reduce the value of access to content on its own.

Capital allocation. RELX targets net debt of about 2 times EBITDA, grows the dividend broadly in line with adjusted EPS, makes small bolt-on acquisitions (£270m across five deals in 2025) and returns surplus cash through buybacks (£1.5bn in 2025, £2.25bn planned for 2026).

5. Financial Health

RELX reports in pounds sterling under IFRS. Revenue and EPS are from each year's results announcement. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at each year end; total borrowings were checked against RELX's SEC XBRL filings (ifrs-full:Borrowings, CIK 0000929869: £6,167m at the end of 2021 and £7,267m at the end of 2025).

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	7,244	+1.9%	75.8p	87.6p	49.8p	£5,935m
FY2022	8,553	+18.1%	84.7p	102.2p	54.6p	£5,860m
FY2023	9,161	+7.1%	93.6p	114.0p	58.8p	£5,184m
FY2024	9,434	+3.0%	103.1p	120.1p	63.0p	£5,132m
FY2025	9,590	+1.7%	112.0p	128.5p	67.5p	£5,696m

GAAP EPS is reported diluted EPS. YoY % is reported revenue growth; underlying growth, which strips out currency, acquisitions, disposals and exhibition-cycling effects, was 7% in each of FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025. FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 revenue of £7,110m.

Quarter / Half	Revenue (£m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026	4,871 (underlying +7%)	68.6p	65.4p
H2 2025	4,849 (derived: FY less H1)	65.0p (derived)	59.4p (derived)
H1 2025	4,741 (underlying +7%)	63.5p	52.6p
FY2025 total	9,590	128.5p	112.0p

RELX reports earnings half-yearly. Its trading updates give growth rates only: for the nine months to 30 September 2026 underlying revenue grew 7% (Risk 8%, STM 6%, Legal 10%, Exhibitions 4%). H2 2025 figures are derived by subtracting H1 2025 from FY2025 and are not published by RELX.

Cash flow and balance sheet. In FY2025 cash generated from operations was £3,735m and net cash from operating activities £2,836m (confirmed in SEC XBRL data). Capital expenditure was £525m, depreciation and amortisation within adjusted operating profit £504m (plus £248m amortisation of acquired intangibles, £752m in total), and free cash flow before dividends £2,313m. At 31 December 2025 cash was £131m, borrowings £7,267m (current £1,571m, non-current £5,696m) and net debt £7,201m. At 30 June 2026 cash was £220m, borrowings £8,906m (current £2,343m, non-current £6,563m) and net debt £8,733m, after a €1.5bn bond issue in June 2026.

2026 outlook (22 October 2026). "We continue to see positive momentum across the group, and we expect another year of strong underlying growth in revenue and adjusted operating profit, as well as strong growth in adjusted earnings per share on a constant currency basis."

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Adjusted operating margin	35.5% in H1 2026 (FY2025: 34.8%; FY2024: 33.9%)
Free cash flow	£2,313m before dividends in FY2025; £1,163m in H1 2026
Cash conversion	99% of adjusted operating profit in FY2025; 98% in H1 2026
EBITDA	£3,846m in FY2025 (RELX definition)
Net debt	£8,733m at 30 June 2026 (31 December 2025: £7,201m)
Net debt / EBITDA	2.3x at 30 June 2026 (2.0x at 31 December 2025)
Dividend per share	67.5p for FY2025; 2026 interim dividend 20.9p, up 7%, paid 10 September 2026
Share buyback	£2,250m planned for 2026; £2,025m completed by 21 October 2026 and a final £125m tranche running to 2 December 2026; 83.4m shares bought from 2 January to 16 October 2026
Shares in issue	1,741,290,013 excluding treasury on 22 October 2026, after 87m treasury shares were cancelled on 21 October 2026
Short interest (% of float)	London line: FCA aggregated net short position 0.59% of issued capital (latest position date 5 October 2026). NYSE ADS: 6,245,714 shares short, about 0.36% of total shares (MarketBeat, 30 September 2026).
Days to cover	About 3.7 days for the NYSE ADS (MarketBeat, 30 September 2026; Finviz shows 2.7); not published for the London line

7. What Are They Building

Agentic AI in Legal. Lexis+ AI (launched in the US in 2023) answered more than five million prompts in the US in 2025, and more than half of US new and renewing customers are adopting it. The Protégé personal assistant gained agentic features in August 2026 to take lawyers "from first idea to review-ready work product", Protégé Work was added in H1 2026, Mistral models were integrated for French customers in July 2026, and Lexis+ with Protégé launched in the Middle East and North Africa in October 2026. LexisNexis also has an alliance with Harvey.

Doctrine and European legal AI. RELX completed the acquisition of Doctrine, a French legal-AI platform with 27,000 daily professional users and more than 100m documents, on 3 September 2026, and has set an ambition to serve one million legal professionals across Europe.

AI research tools at Elsevier. LeapSpace, an AI research workspace drawing on more than 20m peer-reviewed articles and books, added agentic features in June 2026 (Writing Coach, Claim Radar, Compare Tables). Elsevier also runs ScienceDirect AI, Scopus AI, ClinicalKey AI and Reaxys AI Search, and Sherpath AI was used by more than 73,000 US nursing students in 2025.

AI analytics in Risk. Risk's growth is driven by AI-enabled analytics and decision tools on contributory data, including IDVerse AI document authentication acquired in 2025, and Intelligize+ AI Disclosure Management launched in October 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

RELX competes with other professional-information, data and analytics groups.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Thomson Reuters (TRI)	About $53.4bn (Finviz, 23 Oct 2026)	FY2025 revenue $7,476m, up 3%; organic growth 7% (Thomson Reuters Q4 2025 release)
Wolters Kluwer (WKL)	About $21.7bn (companiesmarketcap.com, Oct 2026)	FY2025 revenue €6,125m; organic growth 6% (Wolters Kluwer 2025 results)
S&P Global (SPGI)	About $133.6bn (Finviz, 23 Oct 2026)	FY2025 revenue $15.34bn, up 8% (S&P Global Q4 2025 release)
Moody's (MCO)	About $84.7bn (Finviz, 23 Oct 2026)	FY2025 revenue $7.7bn, up 9% (Moody's Q4 2025 release)
Experian (EXPN.L)	Not shown (London-listed)	FY26 (to March 2026) ongoing revenue $8,425m; organic growth 8% (Experian FY26 results)
Informa (INF.L)	Not shown (London-listed)	FY2025 revenue £4,041m; underlying growth 6.3% (Informa 2025 results)

RELX's 7% underlying growth in 2025 was in line with Thomson Reuters and Wolters Kluwer, its closest legal-information rivals, and Informa is the main peer for its Exhibitions business.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Erik Engstrom has been Chief Executive Officer (CEO) since November 2009, Nick Luff has been Chief Financial Officer since 2014 and Paul Walker has chaired the board since 2021. Andy Halford became Audit Committee chair in July 2026. All 2026 director and PDMR dealings disclosed through RNS were linked to share plans, apart from one sale:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Rosemary Thomson (PDMR)	03 Aug 2026	Option exercise	910	SAYE 2023
Rosemary Thomson (PDMR)	17 Jun 2026	Option grant	922	ShareSave Plan 2023
Erik Engstrom (CEO)	27 Apr 2026	Conditional award	96,254	LTIP 2023, extra 2026–28 award under the new remuneration policy
Nick Luff (CFO)	27 Apr 2026	Conditional award	32,233	LTIP 2023, extra 2026–28 award
Erik Engstrom (CEO)	16 Feb 2026	Awards	288,761 LTIP; 51,803 deferred bonus	LTIP and deferred annual bonus
Erik Engstrom (CEO)	13 Feb 2026	Vesting; 112,011 withheld for tax	218,085 LTIP vested; 41,054 bonus shares released	LTIP 2013 and deferred bonus
Nick Luff (CFO)	13 Feb 2026	Vesting; 61,662 withheld for tax	107,019 LTIP vested; 24,175 bonus shares released	LTIP 2013 and deferred bonus
Rosemary Thomson (PDMR)	13 Feb 2026	Sale	22,000	Discretionary sale

After the February 2026 vesting Erik Engstrom held 1,327,129 shares and ADSs, and Nick Luff 358,792.

10. Key Risks

• AI disruption (Strategic): general-purpose AI tools could reduce demand for content access or let competitors work around RELX's intellectual property; RELX's own principal risks now cite this, and it relies on outside large-language-model and cloud providers.
• Open access and research integrity (Regulatory): a shift from subscription to pay-to-publish models and fraudulent papers are risks for Elsevier, whose STM revenue is about 80% subscription.
• Exhibitions exposure (Macro): events depend on the economic cycle, travel, venues and security; Middle East disruption has already slowed 2026 Exhibitions growth to 4%.
• Currency (Macro): RELX reports in pounds but earns much of its revenue in US dollars and euros; currency reduced FY2025 revenue by 2%.
• Leverage (Financial): net debt of £8,733m and 2.3 times EBITDA at H1 2026, up from 2.0 times, as buybacks run ahead of cash generation.
• Data privacy and cyber security (Regulatory): Risk handles large volumes of personal data, so tighter privacy rules or a breach could restrict products or bring fines.

11. Recent Developments

• 25 Jun 2026 — Elsevier adds agentic AI to LeapSpace. New Writing Coach, Claim Radar and Compare Tables features cover the full research workflow.
• 09 Jul 2026 — Mistral in Lexis+ for France. LexisNexis integrated Mistral models into Lexis+ with Protégé for French customers, hosted in the EU.
• 23 Jul 2026 — H1 2026 results. Revenue £4,871m with 7% underlying growth, adjusted operating margin 35.5%, adjusted EPS 68.6p (up 8%) and interim dividend 20.9p (up 7%); full-year outlook reaffirmed. Andy Halford became Audit Committee chair.
• 24 Aug 2026 — Agentic Protégé. LexisNexis added agentic capabilities to Lexis+ with Protégé.
• 03 Sep 2026 — Doctrine acquisition completed. The French legal-AI platform joined LexisNexis in Europe; the price was not disclosed.
• 19 Oct 2026 — Intelligize+ AI launched. A new AI disclosure-management suite for securities filings.
• 22 Oct 2026 — Nine-month trading update. Underlying revenue up 7% (Risk 8%, STM 6%, Legal 10%, Exhibitions 4%) and outlook reaffirmed; a new £125m buyback tranche began and 87m treasury shares were cancelled.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 02 Dec 2026 — scheduled end of the final £125m tranche of the 2026 buyback
• 31 Dec 2026 — financial year end
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 results and final dividend (the FY2025 results were published on 12 February 2026; the 2027 date is not yet in RELX's financial calendar)
• Expected Apr 2027 — Annual General Meeting and first-quarter trading update (both were on 23 April in 2026)
• TBC — ex-dividend and payment dates for the 2026 final dividend

Interest-rate decisions and currency-moving data releases are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar. Discuss RELX and AI in information services in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 24 October 2026

Experian plc is the world's largest consumer credit bureau by revenue. It collects and analyses credit and identity data on consumers and businesses, sells that data and the software built on it to lenders, insurers, retailers, car dealers and healthcare providers, and runs free and paid credit services for more than 215 million consumer members. Experian is headquartered in Dublin, listed in London and reports in US dollars, with a financial year that ends on 31 March. Since the last version of this report (7 June 2026) Experian has reported 7% organic growth in the first quarter of FY27, completed the idwall acquisition in Brazil, appointed Adam Crozier as Chair and launched new cash-flow data products for lenders. Half-year results are due on 18 November 2026. Every figure below comes from Experian's results announcements, trading updates and RNS notices. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings anywhere in it.

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / exchange	Experian (EXPN) — London Stock Exchange
Sector	Information services — credit data, analytics, decisioning software and consumer credit services
Revenue (FY2026, year to 31 Mar 2026)	US$8,445m statutory revenue, up 12%; organic revenue growth 8%
Profit (FY2026)	Profit before tax US$1,951m (up 26%); profit for the year US$1,508m
Earnings per share (FY2026)	Benchmark EPS 179.8 US cents; basic EPS 164.5 US cents
Benchmark EBIT margin	28.6% on ongoing activities (Benchmark EBIT US$2,407m)
Latest trading (Q1 FY27)	Revenue up 10% at actual exchange rates; organic growth 7% (trading update, 16 Jul 2026)
Employees	About 25,200 in 33 countries (FY2026 results)
CEO / Leadership	Brian Cassin, Chief Executive Officer; Lloyd Pitchford, Chief Financial Officer; Adam Crozier, Chair (from 22 Jul 2026)
Headquarters	Dublin, Ireland
Reporting currency	US dollar (US$)

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Steady organic growth: organic revenue grew 8% in FY2026, with every quarter between 8% and 9%, and FY27 guidance is 6–8% organic growth and 8–11% total growth, confirmed on 16 Jul 2026.
• Margins and earnings compounding: Benchmark EPS rose from 124.5 cents in FY2022 to 179.8 cents in FY2026, the Benchmark EBIT margin reached 28.6%, and management guides to double-digit Benchmark EPS growth in FY27.
• AI built on proprietary data: the Ascend platform has more than 2,300 client solutions live, Experian Assistant speeds up credit model building, and a ServiceNow partnership and the Experian Agent Trust framework extend the data into agentic AI workflows.
• Latin America scale: Latin America produced US$1,297m of revenue in FY2026 with 8% organic growth, and grew 12% organically in Q1 FY27, helped by the ClearSale and idwall acquisitions in Brazil.
• Cash returns: Benchmark free cash flow was US$1,583m in FY2026, the full-year dividend rose 11% to 69.25 cents, and two US$1bn buyback programmes run to 30 Jun 2027.

Bear Case

• AI disruption debate: data and analytics shares sold off in early 2026 on fears that AI tools could weaken pricing for data and software, and Experian's revenue is concentrated in data products.
• Consumer Services slowing: Consumer Services organic growth fell to 2% in Q1 FY27, and North America Consumer Services shrank 2% as two data-breach support contracts wind down.
• US regulation and litigation: a CFPB lawsuit filed in January 2025 over Experian's handling of consumer disputes is still in discovery, and US mortgage regulators have been changing how many credit bureau reports lenders must pull.
• Weak spots outside the Americas: UK and Ireland grew only 2% organically in FY2026 and EMEA and Asia Pacific just 1% in Q1 FY27, while net debt rose to US$5,179m after US$792m of acquisitions.

3. Business Segments

From FY2026 Experian reports two business lines: B2B (split into Financial Services and Verticals) and Consumer Services. The table shows FY2026 revenue from ongoing activities of US$8,425m.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
B2B — Financial Services (US$4,463m)	53%	Credit reports and scores, analytics, fraud and identity checks, mortgage data and the Ascend platform for banks and lenders. Organic growth 9%.
B2B — Verticals (US$1,705m)	20%	Data and software for healthcare (Experian Health), automotive, marketing services and other industries. Organic growth 7%.
Consumer Services (US$2,257m)	27%	Free credit memberships, a credit-card and loan marketplace, paid subscriptions, partner identity protection and Limpa Nome debt resolution in Brazil. Organic growth 9%; margin 29.6%.

By region, North America produced US$5,587m (67%, organic growth 10%, margin 34.2%), Latin America US$1,297m (15%, 8%), UK and Ireland US$942m (11%, 2%) and EMEA and Asia Pacific US$599m (7%, 5%). Follow data and software names on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Lenders and other businesses pay Experian each time they pull a credit report, score or identity check, and pay subscriptions and licence fees for analytics and decisioning software such as Ascend and PowerCurve. Consumers use free credit reports and scores, and Experian earns referral fees when they take out credit cards or loans through its marketplace, plus subscription fees for premium services.

Unit economics. Data is collected once and sold many times, so extra volume is highly profitable. FY2026 Benchmark EBITDA was US$3,010m on US$8,425m of ongoing revenue, and 93% of Benchmark EBIT was converted into operating cash flow.

The moat. Experian holds credit files on hundreds of millions of people, built up over decades from lenders who contribute data in return for access. A new entrant would need years of payment history to match it. Regulation of credit reporting also raises the cost of entry. In the US it competes with Equifax and TransUnion, which have similar data assets.

Capital allocation. Experian targets net debt of 2.0–2.5 times Benchmark EBITDA (1.7 times at 31 Mar 2026), spends on bolt-on acquisitions (US$792m in FY2026), pays a progressive dividend and buys back shares.

5. Financial Health

All figures are in US dollars for years to 31 March, as reported. Experian is not an SEC registrant, so there is no SEC XBRL data; long-term debt is non-current borrowings from each year's balance sheet in the full-year results announcement.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	6,288	+17%	127.5c	124.5c	51.75c	$4,039m
FY2023	6,619	+5.3%	84.2c	135.1c	54.75c	$3,943m
FY2024	7,097	+7.2%	131.3c	145.5c	58.50c	$3,494m
FY2025	7,523	+6.0%	127.6c	156.9c	62.50c	$4,242m
FY2026	8,445	+12.3%	164.5c	179.8c	69.25c	$4,665m

GAAP EPS is statutory basic EPS under IFRS. Adjusted EPS is Experian's Benchmark EPS, which excludes amortisation of acquired intangibles, acquisition costs, exceptional items and financing fair-value movements. Net debt at each year end was US$3,950m (FY2022), US$4,030m (FY2023), US$4,053m (FY2024), US$4,684m (FY2025) and US$5,179m (FY2026).

Quarter / Half	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 FY27 (Apr–Jun 2026)	Not disclosed in US$ (up 10% actual, 7% organic)	Half-yearly only	Half-yearly only
H2 FY26 (Oct 2025–Mar 2026)	About 4,375 (derived: FY less H1)	About 94.8c (derived)	About 82.8c (derived)
H1 FY26 (Apr–Sep 2025)	4,070	85.0c	81.7c
FY2026 total	8,445	179.8c	164.5c

Experian reports revenue growth each quarter but earnings only at the half and full year. Organic growth by quarter in FY2026 was 8%, 9%, 8% and 9%. H2 EPS figures are worked out by subtracting H1 from the full year and are approximate because share counts differ between halves.

Cash flow and balance sheet. In FY2026 cash generated from operations was US$2,875m and net cash inflow from operating activities US$2,239m. Capital expenditure was US$726m (US$677m on intangible assets, mostly software and data, and US$49m on property, plant and equipment). Depreciation and amortisation charged within Benchmark EBIT was US$613m; total depreciation and amortisation including acquisition amortisation was US$876m. At 31 Mar 2026 cash and cash equivalents were US$328m, current borrowings US$900m, non-current borrowings US$4,665m and net debt US$5,179m, with US$2.5bn of undrawn committed bank facilities.

FY27 guidance (20 May 2026, confirmed 16 Jul 2026). Total revenue growth of 8–11%, organic revenue growth of 6–8%, margin expansion at the higher end of Experian's medium-term framework and double-digit Benchmark EPS growth.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Benchmark free cash flow	US$1,583m in FY2026 (Experian definition)
Free cash flow (statutory basis)	About US$1,513m in FY2026: net cash inflow from operating activities US$2,239m less capital expenditure US$726m
Benchmark EBITDA	US$3,010m in FY2026 (Benchmark EBIT plus US$613m of depreciation and amortisation)
Benchmark EBIT margin	28.6% in FY2026 on ongoing activities
Net debt	US$5,179m at 31 Mar 2026 (31 Mar 2025: US$4,684m)
Net debt / Benchmark EBITDA	1.7x at 31 Mar 2026, below the 2.0–2.5x target range
Return on capital employed	17.2% in FY2026
Dividend per share	69.25 US cents for FY2026 (first interim 21.25c, second interim 48.00c), up 11%
Share buybacks	US$1bn programme announced 30 Jan 2026 and a further US$1bn announced 20 May 2026, both running to 30 Jun 2027; US$725m bought back in FY2026
Short interest (% of float)	1.28% of issued shares, the aggregated net short position published by the FCA (position date 19 Oct 2026). Since 13 Jul 2026 the FCA publishes only an anonymised total of positions of 0.2% and above. Verify at fca.org.uk.
Days to cover	Not published for the London line

7. What Are They Building

Agentic AI on Ascend. Experian is turning its Ascend platform into the base for AI agents that build credit models, run fraud checks and handle lending workflows. It has a multi-year partnership with ServiceNow using the Model Context Protocol, and Experian Agent Trust, built with Visa, Cloudflare, Skyfire and Akamai, is meant to let consumers authorise AI agents to make payments. Experian puts its AI-enabled addressable market at more than US$15bn.

AI products in use. Experian Assistant, launched in October 2024, speeds up model development on Ascend. In healthcare, Patient Access Curator has cut insurance claim denials by about 30% for users. Experian's virtual assistant has handled about 3.5 million consumer conversations, and Experian apps run inside ChatGPT in the US and UK.

Cash-flow data for lenders. On 12 Oct 2026 Experian launched a Cashflow Data Bureau and Cashflow Attributes, which let commercial lenders assess businesses using bank-account cash-flow data as well as credit history.

Bolt-on acquisitions. Recent deals include ClearSale (Brazilian fraud prevention, completed 1 Apr 2025), KYC360 (UK identity compliance), AtData (US email data), Own Up (US AI mortgage marketplace, completed after March 2026), idwall (Brazilian identity verification, closed 1 Jul 2026) and eInsights (healthcare insurance discovery, 20 Oct 2026).

Cloud migration. The move of North American and Brazilian systems to the cloud is largely complete (excluding Health), and Experian expects savings from ending dual running from FY27.

8. Competitive Landscape

Experian's main rivals are the two other big US credit bureaus and the leading credit-score provider. Information-services groups such as RELX and Moody's compete in parts of the market.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Equifax (EFX)	About $21.4bn (companiesmarketcap.com, 23 Oct 2026)	2025 revenue $6,074.5m, up 7% (Equifax Q4 and full-year 2025 release)
TransUnion (TRU)	About $15.6bn (companiesmarketcap.com, 23 Oct 2026)	2025 revenue $4,576m, up 9% (TransUnion Q4 2025 release, SEC exhibit 99.1)
Fair Isaac (FICO)	About $17.8bn (companiesmarketcap.com, 22 Oct 2026)	Fiscal 2025 (to Sep 2025) revenue about $1.99bn, up 16% (FICO Q4 fiscal 2025 release)

Experian's FY2026 revenue of US$8,445m is larger than Equifax's or TransUnion's 2025 revenue, and its 8% organic growth was in line with or ahead of their reported growth.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Brian Cassin is Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Lloyd Pitchford is Chief Financial Officer and Adam Crozier became Chair after the AGM on 22 Jul 2026, succeeding Mike Rogers. Director and PDMR (persons discharging managerial responsibilities) dealings disclosed by RNS in 2026 include:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Brian Cassin (CEO)	23 Jul 2026	Award	Up to 50,684	Performance Share Plan grant
Brian Cassin (CEO)	08 Jun 2026	Vesting and sale	157,251 vested; 63,864 sold	2023 Co-Investment Plan and PSP vesting; sale to cover tax
Lloyd Pitchford (CFO)	08 Jun 2026	Vesting and sale	97,162 vested; 39,462 sold	2023 Co-Investment Plan and PSP vesting; sale to cover tax
Eduardo Vassimon (Non-Executive Director), via Tropaco Finance	21 May 2026	Purchase	5,650	Open-market purchase
Kathleen DeRose (Non-Executive Director)	27 Mar 2026	Purchase	1,440	Open-market purchase

On 4 Aug 2026 Experian Finance plc rolled over a contract for differences used to hedge employee share plans (475,000 shares matured, 600,000 entered); this is a company hedge, not a personal dealing. Esther Lee, a non-executive director, also buys small numbers of ADRs through dividend reinvestment. The only sales in 2026 were to cover tax on vesting awards.

10. Key Risks

• Data security (Operational): Experian holds sensitive personal and financial data on hundreds of millions of people; a major breach or misuse would bring fines, lawsuits and lost trust. Data loss and resiliency against ransomware and AI-driven cyber attacks are listed principal risks.
• US regulation and litigation (Regulatory): the CFPB lawsuit filed in January 2025 over consumer dispute handling is still in discovery, and rules on credit reporting, open banking, privacy and AI keep changing.
• AI and competition (Competitive): Equifax, TransUnion, FICO and new AI-led entrants compete for the same clients, and AI tools could change how lenders buy data and models.
• Credit cycle (Macro): revenue depends on lending volumes; higher interest rates or a recession reduce credit applications and marketplace referrals.
• Consumer Services slowdown (Commercial): North America Consumer Services fell 2% in Q1 FY27 as breach-response contracts end; a longer slowdown would weigh on group growth.
• Currency and Brazil (Financial): Latin America is 15% of revenue, mostly in Brazilian reais, so a weaker real reduces reported US dollar revenue and profit.

11. Recent Developments

• 20 May 2026 — FY2026 results. Revenue US$8,445m, organic growth 8%, Benchmark EPS 179.8 cents, dividend up 11% to 69.25 cents and a further US$1bn buyback; FY27 guidance of 6–8% organic growth.
• 01 Jul 2026 — idwall acquisition closed. Experian completed its purchase of idwall, a Brazilian identity-verification business.
• 16 Jul 2026 — Q1 FY27 trading update. Revenue up 10% at actual rates and 7% organically; B2B grew 9% and Consumer Services 2%; full-year guidance confirmed.
• 22 Jul 2026 — New Chair. Adam Crozier succeeded Mike Rogers as Chair after the AGM.
• 12 Oct 2026 — Cashflow Data Bureau launched. New products give commercial lenders bank-account cash-flow data and attributes alongside credit data.
• 20 Oct 2026 — eInsights acquired. Experian Health bought eInsights to expand its insurance-discovery services for hospitals and clinics.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 18 Nov 2026 — H1 FY27 results (six months to 30 Sep 2026) and first interim dividend announcement
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q3 FY27 trading update (date not yet published; last year 21 Jan)
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY27 first interim dividend payment (last year 6 Feb)
• Expected May 2027 — FY27 full-year results (date not yet published)
• 30 Jun 2027 — end date for both current US$1bn share buyback programmes

The CFPB case has no trial date yet. Interest-rate decisions that affect lending volumes are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar. Discuss Experian with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) is a France-headquartered advertising-technology company, listed on Nasdaq via American Depositary Shares and reporting in US dollars, that helps retailers, brands and agencies run digital advertising — increasingly through "commerce media" and Retail Media (monetising retailers' own ad inventory) alongside its legacy Performance Media (commerce-focused retargeting). For fiscal 2025 (year to 31 December 2025) the company reported revenue of $1,944.9m (broadly flat year over year), GAAP operating income of $202.8m (a record, up 34%), net income of $144.6m and free cash flow of $208.5m, with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.64 (revenue, operating income, net income and EPS per the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-26, and EDGAR XBRL; FCF per yfinance annual financials, pulled 2026-05-31). On 6 May 2026 Criteo reported a weaker Q1 2026 — revenue of $425m and net income of $9m, both down year over year — and guided to low-single-digit declines in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026. The shares trade at $18.25, within a 52-week range of $15.58 to $27.32, with a market capitalisation of $917m (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31). The next earnings report (Q2 2026) is scheduled for 5 August 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Name	Criteo S.A.
Ticker / Exchange	CRTO / Nasdaq (American Depositary Shares)
Sector / Industry	Communication Services / Advertising Technology (per yfinance)
Market cap	$917m (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Enterprise value	$749.6m (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
FY2025 revenue	$1,944.9m (per the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-26). Note: reported revenue includes pass-through traffic-acquisition costs (TAC) paid to publishers; the net top line, Contribution ex-TAC, is roughly half this. This is why a company with ~$1.9bn of reported revenue can carry a market cap below $1bn (about 0.48x reported sales)
FY2025 operating income (EDGAR XBRL)	$202.8m GAAP (per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss; matches the 10-K)
FY2025 free cash flow	$208.5m (operating cash flow $311.2m less capex $102.7m, per yfinance annual financials)
Gross margin	54.0% (per yfinance, TTM)
Net margin	7.4% (FY2025 GAAP, per the 10-K)
Employees	approximately 3,649 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
CEO	Michael Komasinski, Chief Executive Officer
Headquarters	Paris, France
Website	https://www.criteo.com
Fiscal year-end	31 December
Next earnings	5 August 2026 — Q2 2026
Dividend yield	None (no dividend)
52-week high	$27.32 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
52-week low	$15.58 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Short interest	1.0m shares short; short ratio 3.2 days (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record profitability on a flat top line. Per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-02-26), GAAP operating income rose 34% to a record $202.8m and net income rose to $144.6m, even though revenue was broadly flat at $1,944.9m — evidence of margin discipline.

• Strong, consistent free cash flow. Per yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31), FY2025 free cash flow was $208.5m, against a market capitalisation of about $917m, a high free-cash-flow yield.

• Aggressive buybacks shrinking the share count. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-02-26) and yfinance, the company repurchased $152.1m of stock in FY2025 and has reduced shares outstanding from about 57.3m (FY2022) to 51.2m (FY2025).

• Very low valuation with net cash. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), the shares trade at roughly 8.6x trailing earnings, 0.48x sales and 0.81x book value, with an enterprise value ($749.6m) below revenue and a net-cash balance sheet.

• Retail Media remains a structural growth opportunity. Per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), excluding two specific client scope changes, Retail Media Contribution ex-TAC grew 24% across the underlying client base, pointing to demand beneath the reported decline.

Bear Case

• Revenue is not growing. Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-02-26), revenue has been broadly flat-to-down for several years ($2,017m in FY2022 to $1,944.9m in FY2025), so the investment case rests on margins and cash rather than growth.

• Near-term outlook has weakened. Per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), Q1 revenue fell to $425m and net income dropped to $9m, Retail Media Contribution ex-TAC fell 32% year over year at constant currency on two client scope changes, and management guided to low-single-digit declines in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026.

• Client concentration risk in Retail Media. Per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), the loss of scope with just two Retail Media clients was enough to swing the segment from growth to a 32% decline, underscoring concentration.

• Existential signal-loss and walled-garden pressure. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), the business is exposed to the deprecation of third-party cookies and identifiers and to competition from much larger "walled gardens" (such as Google, Amazon and Meta).

• Leadership transition. Criteo has a new CEO (Michael Komasinski), and the strategy is mid-transition from legacy retargeting toward commerce and Retail Media, with execution risk.

3. What Does Criteo Actually Do?

Criteo operates an advertising-technology platform that connects advertisers (brands, retailers and agencies) with consumers across the open internet, using large-scale commerce data and machine learning to target and optimise ads (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-26). It reports two segments:

Segment	What it is
Retail Media	Helps retailers monetise their own websites, apps and data by selling ad inventory to brands ("commerce media"); Criteo's strategic growth engine
Performance Media	Its larger, legacy business — commerce-focused retargeting and performance advertising that drives measurable sales for advertisers

A precise current dollar split between the two segments is not reproduced in this report's source data, so a segment donut chart is not shown. The key non-GAAP metric Criteo manages to is "Contribution ex-TAC" (revenue less traffic-acquisition costs paid to publishers). Per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), Retail Media Contribution ex-TAC fell 32% year over year at constant currency (driven by two client scope changes; up 24% excluding them), while Performance Media Contribution ex-TAC fell 2%. Criteo's media spend was about $1.0bn in Q1 2026 and $4.4bn over the last twelve months. As a France-domiciled company, Criteo earns revenue globally but reports in US dollars; a precise current geographic breakdown is not reproduced in this report's source data.

4. The Business Model

Criteo earns revenue when advertisers run campaigns through its platform; a large share of gross billings is passed through to publishers as traffic-acquisition costs (TAC), which is why the company emphasises Contribution ex-TAC as its true top line (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-26). In Retail Media it takes a share of the advertising spend that flows across retailers' properties; in Performance Media it is paid for driving measurable commerce outcomes.

The intended moat rests on scale of commerce data, machine-learning models, direct integrations with thousands of advertisers and a growing roster of retailer partners, plus the shift toward first-party retailer data (which is more resilient to third-party-cookie loss). Distribution is direct sales and agency/partner relationships. Unit economics now produce solid GAAP profit and strong cash: a 54.0% gross margin (per yfinance), a record FY2025 GAAP operating income of $202.8m (a 10.4% operating margin) and $208.5m of free cash flow (per the 10-K and yfinance). Capital is returned through share buybacks (no dividend); the company has bought back stock every year shown below.

5. Financial Health

Five-year trend (fiscal years to 31 December; $m unless stated). Operating income is the GAAP figure per EDGAR XBRL (which matches yfinance for Criteo); revenue and diluted EPS per EDGAR / the 10-K; net income and FCF per yfinance / the 10-K.

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	2,254.2	2,017.0	1,949.4	1,933.3	1,944.9
Operating income (GAAP, EDGAR)	151.9	24.3	77.2	151.4	202.8
Net income	138.0	9.0	53.3	111.6	144.6
Diluted EPS ($)	2.09	0.14	0.88	1.90	2.64
Free cash flow	not disclosed	192.2	108.1	180.0	208.5

Source: revenue/operating income/diluted EPS per EDGAR XBRL and the FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-02-26); net income and FCF per yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31).

Balance sheet (fiscal year-ends; $m):

Metric	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & equivalents	348.2	336.3	290.7	342.0
Total debt	108.5	118.4	103.4	138.4
Total stockholders' equity	1,048.0	1,079.6	1,049.2	1,149.2
Shares outstanding (period-end, m)	57.3	55.8	54.3	51.2
Share repurchases ($m)	135.7	125.5	224.6	152.1

Source: yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31). The company holds more cash than debt and has steadily reduced its share count through buybacks.

Quarterly trend (last five quarters; GAAP; $m except EPS):

Quarter (period end)	Revenue	Operating income	Net income	Diluted EPS ($)
Q1 2025 (31 Mar 2025)	451.4	48.2	37.9	0.66
Q2 2025 (30 Jun 2025)	482.7	30.5	21.2	0.39
Q3 2025 (30 Sep 2025)	469.7	51.6	37.8	0.70
Q4 2025 (31 Dec 2025)	541.1	72.5	47.6	0.89*
Q1 2026 (31 Mar 2026)	424.6	10.4	7.8	0.15

Source: quarterly figures per yfinance (consistent with EDGAR XBRL for overlapping periods); Q1 2026 also per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026). *Q4 2025 EPS is derived as the FY2025 full-year EPS less the first three quarters and is approximate. The business is highly seasonal — the fourth quarter (holiday retail advertising) is by far the strongest — and Q1 2026 was notably weak on the Retail Media client scope changes.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31)
Share price	$18.25
Previous close	$18.29
Day range	$18.23 – $18.71
52-week high / low	$27.32 / $15.58
Market cap	$917m
Enterprise value	$749.6m
Shares outstanding	50.2m
Float	44.4m
Average daily volume (10d)	346,000 shares
Volume (date)	not disclosed in this report's source data
Beta	0.34
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	8.6x
Forward P/E	4.1x
P/S (TTM)	0.48x (reported revenue includes pass-through TAC, so this ratio reads lower than for peers that report on a net-revenue basis)
P/B	0.81x
EV/Revenue	0.39x
EV/EBITDA	not disclosed in this report's source data
P/FCF	not disclosed in this report's source data
Gross margin (TTM)	54.0%
Operating margin (FY2025, GAAP)	10.4%
Net margin (FY2025, GAAP)	7.4%
ROE	10.4%
ROA	not disclosed in this report's source data
Debt-to-equity	12.3%
Current ratio	1.28x
Dividend yield	None
Short interest	1.0m shares (short ratio 3.2 days)
Put/call ratio	not disclosed in this report's source data

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Criteo's strategy centres on shifting from legacy retargeting toward "commerce media" — Retail Media plus AI-driven Performance Media — and on building AI tools for advertisers (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-26, and Q1 2026 commentary, 6 May 2026). Per the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), CEO Michael Komasinski said the company is "advancing our AI roadmap, strengthening our commercial organization, and scaling our AI-driven solutions across Performance Media and Retail Media," while acknowledging a "more challenging environment" in the near term.

On the outlook, management guided to low-single-digit declines in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026, reflecting the two Retail Media client scope changes, before an intended return to growth (per the Q1 2026 results, 6 May 2026). Capital allocation continues to favour buybacks rather than a dividend ($152.1m of repurchases in FY2025, per the 10-K and yfinance). No third-party analyst forecasts are used in this report; figures above are company disclosures.

8. Competitive Landscape

Criteo competes with advertising-technology and commerce-media providers, as well as far larger "walled gardens." Peer market data (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31):

Company	Ticker	Market cap	Revenue (TTM)	Gross margin	P/S
Criteo	CRTO	$0.92bn	$1.94bn	54.0%	0.48x
The Trade Desk	TTD	$10.14bn	$2.97bn	77.8%	3.41x
Magnite	MGNI	$2.05bn	$0.72bn	63.4%	2.84x
PubMatic	PUBM	$0.54bn	$0.28bn	63.2%	1.93x
DoubleVerify	DV	$1.49bn	$0.76bn	82.2%	1.95x
AppLovin	APP	$205.96bn	$6.16bn	88.4%	33.41x

All figures are in US dollars. Criteo has one of the larger revenue bases in this independent-adtech group but trades at by far the lowest price-to-sales multiple (0.48x), reflecting its flat revenue and lower gross margin (its reported revenue includes traffic-acquisition costs, unlike some peers). It also competes indirectly with Google, Amazon and Meta, which are far larger. No view is offered here on relative winners or losers.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Michael Komasinski serves as Chief Executive Officer of Criteo and represented the company on the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026); he succeeded long-time CEO Megan Clarken. Sarah Glickman serves as Chief Financial Officer, and co-founder Jean-Baptiste Rudelle is associated with the company's board. Detailed individual tenures and compensation are set out in the company's proxy statement and are not fully reproduced in this report's source data.

Ownership is concentrated among institutions. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), institutions hold approximately 86.8% and insiders approximately 3.0%. The largest reported institutional holders (per yfinance, as at 31 March 2026):

Holder	Stake	Shares
Neuberger Berman Group	15.94%	7.9m
Morgan Stanley	9.87%	4.9m
DnB Asset Management	9.29%	4.6m
Senvest Management	9.22%	4.6m
BlueCrest Capital Management	4.53%	2.3m

Recent specific insider transactions are not disclosed in this report's source data.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Third-party cookie and signal loss (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), the deprecation of third-party cookies and mobile identifiers and changes in browser and platform policies could impair Criteo's targeting and measurement and reduce demand for its products.
• Competition from walled gardens (Competitive): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), Criteo competes with much larger players such as Google, Amazon and Meta, as well as other adtech firms, which could pressure share and pricing.
• Customer and revenue concentration (Concentration): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26) and the Q1 2026 results (6 May 2026), a meaningful portion of Retail Media activity depends on a limited number of large clients, and scope changes with two clients materially reduced segment Contribution ex-TAC.
• Stagnant or declining revenue (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), the legacy Performance Media business faces secular pressures, and total revenue has been flat-to-down for several years.
• Data privacy regulation (Regulatory): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), the business is subject to evolving privacy and data-protection laws (such as GDPR and US state laws) that increase compliance costs and could restrict data use.
• Technology and AI transition (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), Criteo must continually invest in and execute on new AI and commerce-media technology to remain competitive, with execution risk.
• Cybersecurity and data handling (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), the company processes large volumes of data, making a security breach a material legal, financial and reputational risk.
• Foreign-currency and cross-border exposure (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-02-26), as a France-domiciled company with global operations reporting in US dollars, Criteo is exposed to currency movements and cross-border tax and regulatory complexity.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 6 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results, weaker quarter and cautious 2026 outlook: Criteo reported first-quarter revenue of $425m and net income of $9m (both down year over year), adjusted EBITDA of $65m and free cash flow of $16m; Retail Media Contribution ex-TAC fell 32% year over year at constant currency on two client scope changes (up 24% excluding them), Performance Media Contribution ex-TAC fell 2%, and management guided to low-single-digit declines in Contribution ex-TAC for 2026 while reaffirming confidence in a return to growth. Source: Criteo Q1 2026 earnings release / Form 8-K.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 5 August 2026: Q2 2026 earnings (quarter to 30 June 2026). Source: yfinance earnings calendar (pulled 2026-05-31).
• Mid-2026: Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. Date not disclosed in this report's source data.

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Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.