IonQ (IONQ) — Company Research

Last Updated: 26 May 2026

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) is the world's largest pure-play public quantum-computing company by revenue. It builds and operates trapped-ion quantum systems, sells access to those systems via the major cloud platforms (AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, Google Cloud) and direct enterprise contracts, and is rapidly expanding into quantum networking, sensing and post-quantum security. After becoming the first listed quantum firm to surpass $100m in annual GAAP revenue in FY2025 ($130m, +202% YoY) and raising 2026 guidance to $260–$270m on the back of a $470m remaining performance obligation backlog, the company has also just announced its largest-ever acquisition — a pending $1.8bn deal for US semiconductor foundry SkyWater Technology — and a $100m R&D centre in Boulder. Operating losses remain very large; the stock remains one of the most-shorted in US tech.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	IONQ / NYSE
Sector	Technology — Quantum Computing Hardware & Cloud Services
Headquarters	College Park, Maryland, USA (with new $100m R&D centre in Boulder, Colorado)
CEO / Leadership	Niccolo de Masi, President & Chief Executive Officer (CEO since Feb 2025; Chairman since Aug 2025). Three-time public-company CEO; Cambridge-trained physicist.
Employees	~600 (FY2025 10-K, pre-SkyWater)
Founded	2015 (spun out of University of Maryland / Duke University research)
Market cap	~$23bn (22 May 2026; ~373m shares outstanding at ~$62)
FY2025 revenue	$130.0m (+202% YoY) — first pure-play quantum firm above $100m
FY2025 net loss (GAAP)	$(510.4m) attributable to IonQ, Inc.
Cash & investments (YE 2025)	$3.3bn cash, equivalents and investments
Backlog (Q1 2026)	$470m remaining performance obligations (+554% YoY)
Dividend	None

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Only public pure-play with material commercial revenue: $130m FY2025 GAAP revenue (+202%) is multiples larger than Rigetti or D-Wave, and the Q1 2026 print of $64.7m (+755% YoY) versus a $49.7m consensus shows revenue is accelerating, not stalling.
• Trapped-ion architecture has structural fidelity advantage: ion-based qubits offer industry-leading gate fidelity and coherence times versus superconducting designs (IBM/Google/Rigetti) — an edge that becomes more valuable as the industry moves from "demonstrate qubits" to "run useful algorithms".
• Backlog is real money locking in 2026–2027: $470m remaining performance obligations at Q1 2026 (+554% YoY) means a meaningful portion of forward revenue is already contracted; this is what supports the raised $260–$270m 2026 guide and "over 100% organic growth" framing.
• National-priority tailwind: the Trump administration's May 2026 $2bn+ quantum-computing funding plan validates the addressable market even though IonQ was not on the direct-funding list; the read-across is increasing US government and defence procurement of quantum capability.
• Vertical integration via SkyWater gives chip-foundry control: the pending $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition (shareholder-approved May 2026) gives IonQ a captive US chip foundry for next-generation trapped-ion ICs — a serious moat versus quantum competitors who depend on third-party fabs.

Bear Case

• Operating losses are enormous and growing: $(271.5m) loss from operations and $(96.8m) adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 2026 alone; FY2025 GAAP net loss of $(510m) (vs $(332m) FY2024). 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss is guided at $(330)–$(310)m, so cash burn continues.
• Q1 2026 net income headline is a non-cash optical illusion: the $805m GAAP net income and $2.19 GAAP EPS were entirely driven by a $1.06bn non-cash fair-value gain on warrant liabilities — underlying operations still burn cash. Investors who anchor on headline EPS will misjudge the franchise.
• Valuation is extreme on every comparable measure: ~$23bn market cap on $130m FY2025 revenue is ~175x sales; even on the raised 2026 guide it is ~88x. Any deceleration or contract slip would be heavily punished.
• Quantum-advantage timeline still unproven: nobody — IonQ, IBM, Google, Quantinuum — has yet demonstrated a commercially-useful quantum computation that materially outperforms classical computing for a problem of business value at production scale. The thesis is timing risk, not just technical risk.
• Heavy short interest reflects scepticism: 22%+ of float short with elevated borrow rates signals a sustained bear case that mean-reversion in valuation is the most likely outcome.

3. Business Segments

IonQ does not report formal segments at granularity comparable to a large-cap, but management discloses revenue by type. The mix in Q1 2026 was approximately 60% commercial / 35% international / 35% multi-product customers (overlapping categories).

Segment	% of revenue (Q1 2026)	What it is
Quantum Systems & Hardware Sales	~55%	Direct sale and delivery of trapped-ion quantum computers (including the new 6th-generation 256-qubit chip-based system shipped Q1 2026), with secure-network and IP-generation partnerships.
Cloud Quantum Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS)	~30%	Pay-per-use and subscription access to IonQ systems via AWS Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, Google Cloud Marketplace, and IonQ Quantum Cloud direct.
Professional Services & Government Contracts	~15%	Custom algorithm development, defence research programs (DoD/DoE/AFRL), pharma and energy R&D engagements, and consulting partnerships.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. IonQ generates revenue through three channels: (1) direct sale of physical quantum systems to large enterprises and governments (typically multi-million-dollar deals), (2) recurring cloud usage fees for access to IonQ machines via hyperscaler marketplaces and direct cloud, and (3) custom professional-services and research engagements that often anchor enterprise pilots before moving to subscription. Q1 2026 revenue mix is roughly 60% commercial / 35% international / 35% multi-product customers, with backlog of $470m representing long-dated contracted revenue.

What protects the moat. Three sources: (a) trapped-ion technology IP (originating from University of Maryland / Duke and continuously extended through more than 900 patents and patent applications), (b) availability on all three major cloud-quantum marketplaces giving distribution most peers cannot match, and (c) deep government and defence relationships (DoE, AFRL, DARPA-relevant programs) that produce both revenue and validation. The pending SkyWater acquisition adds a US-owned trusted-foundry asset few competitors have.

Why it is hard to replicate. The trapped-ion gate-fidelity expertise is the product of a decade of physics R&D and continuous iteration of optical, vacuum and laser systems; superconducting incumbents have a different architectural choice that is harder to retrofit for the high-fidelity, lower-noise regime. The combination of foundry control (via SkyWater), cloud distribution, and a substantial cash war chest ($3.3bn at YE 2025) is the moat — not any single piece individually.

5. Financial Health

IonQ is a hyper-growth, cash-burning company funded by a very large equity-raised cash pile. Revenue growth is accelerating; losses are widening as the company invests in capacity, the Boulder R&D centre, and the SkyWater integration.

Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE, $m)
FY2021	$2.1	—	$(0.66)	n/a	$0.00	Nil
FY2022	$11.1	+428%	$(0.24)	n/a	$0.00	Nil
FY2023	$22.0	+98%	$(0.78)	n/a	$0.00	Nil
FY2024	$43.1	+95%	$(1.56)	n/a	$0.00	Nil
FY2025	$130.0	+202%	$(1.91)	n/a	$0.00	Nil (debt-free; $3.3bn cash & investments)

Quarterly progression (most recent first):

Quarter	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	$64.7 (+755% YoY)	$(0.28) (operating proxy)	$2.19 (distorted by $1.06bn non-cash warrant gain)
Q4 2025	$61.9 (+422% YoY)	$(0.26)	$(0.31)
Q3 2025	$39.9	$(0.17)	$(3.58) (large non-cash items)
Q2 2025	$20.7	$(0.13)	$(0.50)
Q1 2025	$7.6	$(0.20)	$(0.91)
FY2025 total	$130.0	n/a	$(1.91)

Selected balance sheet detail: IonQ ended FY2025 with $3.3bn in cash, cash equivalents and investments and no traditional term debt — the strongest liquidity profile in pure-play quantum. Q1 2026 cash burn from operations was meaningful, and the pending $1.8bn SkyWater acquisition will be material to the balance sheet once it closes (the deal mix and final accounting will be confirmed at close, expected Q2/Q3 2026 subject to regulatory approval). Six-month operating cash burn through 30 June 2025 was $(85.6m).

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, May 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$23.0bn (22 May 2026; ~373m shares × ~$62)
Enterprise value	~$19.7bn (market cap ~$23.0bn + long-term debt ~$0 − cash & investments ~$3.3bn per YE 2025 balance sheet). Does not reflect the pending SkyWater acquisition consideration of ~$1.8bn, which will inflate EV materially on close.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	— not meaningful (FY2025 GAAP net loss of $(510m); Q1 2026 headline net income was driven by a $1.06bn non-cash warrant fair-value gain, not by operations)
P/E (forward)	— not meaningful (consensus 2026 net income is a loss; management guides to $(330)–$(310)m adjusted EBITDA loss)
P/S (TTM)	~175x (market cap ~$23.0bn / FY2025 revenue $130m). On 2026 guided revenue midpoint ($265m) the multiple falls to ~87x.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	— not meaningful (EBITDA is negative; FY2025 adjusted EBITDA loss was ~$(255m), 2026 guided $(310)–$(330)m loss)
P/FCF	— not meaningful (FCF is negative; six-month operating cash burn through 30 Jun 2025 was $(86m) plus capex of ~$(6m), implying FCF of ~$(92m) for the half. FCF = operating CF − capex = $(85.6m) − $(5.7m) = ~$(91m) per H1 2025 cash flow statement.)
52-week high	$84.64 (intraday); $82.09 (closing all-time high, 13 Oct 2025)
52-week low	$25.89
Short interest (% of float)	22.43% (~83.7m shares short as of latest NYSE semi-monthly reporting)
Days to cover	~2.3 days (on ~36m share average daily volume)

7. Growth Drivers

Management's 2026 outlook is for $260–$270m of revenue (over 100% organic growth) and a $(330)–$(310)m adjusted EBITDA loss as the company invests in capacity. The structural drivers behind that guide are: continued delivery of new-generation systems (the 6th-gen 256-qubit chip-based system has now shipped), expanding cloud-marketplace consumption as enterprises move from pilots to production workloads, rising US government and defence procurement (the Trump administration's $2bn+ quantum funding plan plus continued DoE and DARPA-adjacent programmes), international expansion (Q1 international revenue mix ~35%), the SkyWater integration giving captive chip-foundry capability for next-generation trapped-ion ICs, and the new $100m Boulder R&D facility scaling test capacity for production workloads. Use the ChartsView live charts to monitor price reaction around each new quantum-system announcement.

8. Peer Comparison

The peer set is narrow because there are only three public pure-play quantum companies. IBM, Google and Microsoft compete in quantum but at a unit level that makes direct comparison misleading. The most-cited public quantum-only peer cohort:

Peer	Market cap (May 2026)	Key 2025 metric
IonQ (IONQ)	~$23.0bn	FY2025 revenue $130m (+202%); $470m Q1 2026 backlog; trapped-ion architecture
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)	~$5.2bn	Superconducting-qubit pure-play; FY2025 revenue under $20m; meaningfully smaller commercial traction
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)	~$3.8bn	Quantum-annealing focus (optimisation, not gate-model); FY2025 revenue under $25m
IBM (IBM)	~$240bn (parent)	Largest installed base of superconducting qubits (1,000+ qubit processors) but quantum is a small line item inside the conglomerate
Alphabet/Google Quantum AI	n/a (parent ~$2.0tn)	Willow chip, error-correction milestones; not separately reported
Quantinuum (Honeywell-backed)	n/a (private; IPO expected)	Trapped-ion competitor with arguably the most advanced hardware roadmap

9. Insider Activity

Insider activity at IonQ in the last 12 months has been routine and small in size. CEO Niccolo de Masi's principal recent Form 4 filings are RSU grants and the related tax-withholding sales, not discretionary open-market buys or sells. The Chief Executive has not signalled either strong conviction (open-market buying) or distress (large open-market selling) through Form 4 filings to date.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price ($)	Value	Plan Type
Niccolo de Masi (CEO & Chairman)	11 Mar 2026	Tax-withholding sale (RSU vest)	20,785	$34.802 (avg; range $33.69–$35.87)	~$723k	Mandatory tax sell
Niccolo de Masi (CEO & Chairman)	10 Mar 2026	RSU grant vesting	11,556	$0 (RSU)	n/a	Compensation plan
Niccolo de Masi (CEO & Chairman)	11 Sep 2025	Open-market sale	16,120	n/a (disclosed at fair value)	n/a	10b5-1 / discretionary

Following the March 2026 tax-withholding transaction, de Masi directly holds 1,155,667 IonQ common shares — a position worth ~$72m at $62.

10. Key Risks

• Cash-burn trajectory and dilution risk: with $(310)–$(330)m guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss, the $3.3bn cash pile gives roughly 8–10 years of runway at current burn but the trajectory may worsen with the SkyWater integration; equity issuance to fund acquisitions or accelerate the roadmap remains a risk.
• Quantum-advantage timeline: the entire thesis depends on quantum machines reaching commercial usefulness for a problem of business value sooner than current sceptics expect; if useful quantum advantage slips materially beyond 2030, demand for $10m+ machines may not scale as projected.
• Competitive intensity from well-funded incumbents: IBM, Google, Microsoft and Amazon all run quantum efforts at scale and can subsidise their cloud quantum offerings at near-zero gross margin to win developer share — IonQ has to win on hardware fidelity.
• Customer concentration: a meaningful share of FY2025 revenue is concentrated in government and defence contracts where appropriation timing and political cycles drive volatility.
• Integration risk from the SkyWater acquisition: a $1.8bn deal transforms IonQ from a research-heavy product company into a hardware-and-foundry operator. Integration of a public semiconductor foundry into a quantum-systems business has no useful precedent.
• Warrant-driven GAAP volatility: non-cash changes in warrant fair value will continue to produce headline GAAP swings (Q1 2026 $1.06bn gain) that obscure underlying operations and may distort screen-driven price action.
• Heavy short interest creates squeeze and capitulation risk: with ~22% of float short and elevated borrow rates, IONQ trades with high realised volatility in both directions; option-implied vol remains structurally elevated.
• Regulatory / export-control risk: quantum is on every major government's strategic-technology list. Future US export controls or counter-controls from China could affect addressable market.

11. Recent Developments

• 06 May 2026 — IonQ posts record Q1 2026 revenue, raises 2026 outlook. Revenue $64.7m (+755% YoY) versus $49.7m consensus; raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $260–$270m and reiterated $(330)–$(310)m adjusted EBITDA loss. Backlog $470m (+554% YoY). Headline GAAP net income of $805m driven by $1.06bn non-cash warrant fair-value gain.
• 06 May 2026 — IonQ ships first 6th-generation, chip-based, 256-qubit system. Anchors a secure quantum network and broad IP-generation partnership spanning computing, networking, sensing and security.
• 08 May 2026 — SkyWater Technology stockholders approve $1.8bn IonQ merger. Deal clears a key approval hurdle; close expected Q2/Q3 2026 subject to remaining regulatory approvals. Gives IonQ access to a US semiconductor foundry for chip-based ion-trap hardware.
• 06 May 2026 — IonQ opens new $100m R&D facility in Boulder, Colorado. 22,000 sq ft dedicated to next-generation system testing and production workloads.
• 07 May 2026 — CNBC interview: CEO Niccolo de Masi says "quantum is coming sooner than people think". Reiterates that revenue is expected to roughly double again in 2026 and that demand is accelerating across AI, defence and healthcare verticals.
• 21 May 2026 — IONQ shares surge 12%+ on US quantum-funding announcement. Trump administration unveils plans for $2bn+ of quantum-computing funding; IonQ not on the direct-funding list but rallies alongside listed quantum peers on the read-across.
• 25 Feb 2026 — IonQ posts FY2025 results: $130m revenue (+202%), first pure-play to exceed $100m. Full-year net loss $(510m). Marks the formal validation of the commercial revenue ramp.

12. Key Dates

• 12 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings release (next scheduled report). Market focus: Q2 revenue versus the $65–$68m guide, SkyWater close status, gross-margin trend and adjusted EBITDA loss trajectory.
• 30 Sep 2026 — Latest expected SkyWater Technology merger close window (regulatory-approval dependent). Material balance-sheet impact.
• 11 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings (estimated based on historical mid-November cadence).
• 24 Feb 2027 — Q4 2026 / FY2026 results (estimated). First test of the $260–$270m revenue guide and adjusted EBITDA loss target.

For real-time price action around any of these dates, see the ChartsView live charts. For macro context around the next FOMC meeting and tech-sector risk appetite, see the economic calendar. Discuss with other investors on the ChartsView forum.

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