FTSE 100 Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

Wednesday 26 August 2026
Data: close Tue 25 Aug 2026 (latest scanner snapshot, 40 FTSE 100 names) | UKX cash close 10,878 (+0.22%) | FTSE 100 future 10,482.3



MARKET OVERVIEW

The FTSE 100 closed Tuesday 25 August at 10,878, up 0.22%, extending its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session and trading within touching distance of 10,900. Melrose (+8.4%), NEXT (+1.8%) and Rolls-Royce (+1.5%) led; Endeavour, JD Sports and LSEG lagged.

Futures - contract roll warning. The FTSE 100 future is quoted at 10,482.3 this morning (opened 10,493.6, range 10,445.8-10,507.7, volume 9,309 - source: Investing.com UK 100 Futures). That is roughly 396 points below the cash close. This is NOT a bearish gap. It is the dividend discount on a far-dated quarterly contract following the roll, and August is one of the heaviest ex-dividend months of the UK calendar - over half the index by weight has gone ex during the month. Cross-checked against the cash close and the news tone, direction into today reads NEUTRAL to constructive, not lower. Do not trade a phantom gap.

Macro backdrop. Bank Rate held at 3.75% on 30 July (MPC 6-3), with the Committee flagging that rates could rise if Middle East-linked inflation pressure intensifies. CPI was 2.6% in June, down from 2.8% in May. Unemployment 4.9%. Commodities are doing the heavy lifting: gold above 4,600 dollars an ounce, copper elevated after touching record highs above 14,000 dollars a tonne on an LME supply squeeze and expected Chilean output cuts, and Brent around 94 dollars. That is a directly favourable mix for the index's mining weight and a headwind for anything consumer-facing.

Data-freshness note: the scanner snapshot analysed below is the close of Tuesday 25 August. Levels are Tuesday's, not live. Treat all pivots and Camarilla levels as calculated from Tuesday's range.



NOTABLE CHANGES - DAY OVER DAY

SSE - the cleanest new trigger in the book. Triple event in one session: crossed above EMA20, MACD bullish crossover, and crossed above POC. RSI jumped 6.8 points to 51.0. Closed +1.65% at 2404. Caveat: ADX is only 8.8, so there is no established trend yet - this is an early-stage turn, not a runaway.

AZN +2.96% - biggest single-day gain in the FTSE set. RSI +6.8 to 53.9, crossed above EMA20, week +3.27%. Still below EMA50 and EMA200 though, and below POC. A bounce off a deeply oversold base, not a trend change.

BP - fresh double breakdown. Crossed below EMA20 AND MACD bearish crossover on the same day. Closed -0.77% at 529.25. Three-day down streak, week -1.77%, weekly RSI -6.4. The most deteriorating large-cap in the set.

STAN -2.17% - worst FTSE performer on the day. RSI collapsed 7.4 points to 46.1 and price closed below EMA20 for the first time in this leg. Fresh breakdown.

CPG and III both crossed BELOW EMA200 today. CPG (-1.97%, RSI 41.7) is now BEARISH below all three EMAs. III (-1.76%) has lost its EMA200 but remains above EMA20 and EMA50 - a warning shot, not yet a breakdown.

ANTO +8.79% on the week with a 5-day up streak and RSI +12.2 - the strongest weekly move in the FTSE universe. RIO +4.89%, also 5 straight up days, RSI +9.5. AAL +4.45%, 3-day streak.

TSCO posted the largest weekly RSI gain of any FTSE name at +13.8 points, on a 5-day up streak, and crossed above EMA20.

BAE - 5-day DOWN streak, week -2.73%, weekly RSI -7.9. The only sustained multi-day decline in the set.

Also worth noting: SHEL MACD bearish crossover (RSI -5.5 on the week despite BULLISH EMA structure), HSBA and PRU both lost EMA20, GSK, RR. and VOD all reclaimed EMA20, and HLN posted a MACD bullish crossover. LSEG is on a 4-day up streak with weekly RSI +10.8.



SECTOR HEATMAP

MINING - clear leadership, moving as a bloc. AAL +2.19%, ANTO +1.31%, GLEN +1.03%, RIO +0.61%. All four are BULLISH above all three EMAs, all four trade well above POC (AAL +10.7%, GLEN +10.0%, RIO +7.0%, ANTO +4.7%), and three of the four FTSE names in the weekly top-movers list are miners. Gold above 4,600 and copper near records is the engine. This is the highest-conviction sector on the board.

UTILITIES - RECOVERING. SSE +1.65%, NG +1.02% (RSI +4.3). SSE's triple trigger is the standout. NG remains BEARISH below all three EMAs, so this is early.

PHARMA - RECOVERING from a deep base. AZN +2.96%, GSK +0.47% (reclaimed EMA20), HLN -0.14% but with a MACD bullish crossover. All three are still structurally damaged - AZN is 20.8% off its 52-week high, GSK 16.3% off. Bounce, not breakout.

TOBACCO - the weakest sector on the board. BATS -1.31% (RSI 38.4, 7.7% BELOW POC) and IMB -0.24% (RSI 33.1, 8.5% BELOW POC, and IMB's 52-week low of 2476 is only 1.8% away). Both BEARISH below all three EMAs. Nothing to buy here.

ENERGY - deteriorating despite Brent at 94. SHEL -0.35% with a fresh MACD bearish crossover, BP -0.77% with the EMA20 break. The divergence between a strong oil price and weak oil equities is the single most notable disconnect in the data - watch it.

BANKS - MIXED and losing momentum. STAN -2.17%, HSBA -0.80%, LLOY -0.29%, NWG +0.15%, BARC +0.54%. Three of the five sit below EMA20. BARC and LGEN are outright BEARISH below EMA20 and EMA50. The sector-wide loss of the 20-day is a group move worth respecting.

CONSUMER STAPLES - MIXED. DGE -2.67% (worst FTSE performer bar STAN, RSI -7.6, but still BULLISH above all EMAs), ULVR -0.59%, RKT -0.46%, ABF -0.39%, TSCO +0.34% (the one bright spot, 5-day streak).

MEDIA, DATA AND SOFTWARE - MIXED. EXPN +1.60% (BULLISH above all), LSEG +0.02% (4-day streak), SGE -0.18% but RSI 73.8 and ADX 50 - the most extended stock in the entire set, sitting 23.0% above POC. WPP -1.93% and REL -1.21%.

SUPPORT SERVICES - RTO is the single weakest name in the book. RSI 30.9, BEARISH below all EMAs, 13.3% below POC, ADX 38.2, and just 4.7% above its 52-week low.



DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS

Format: Ticker - Close - Day% - Trend (strict EMA test) - RSI - MACD - % from 52w high - vs POC

AAL 4200.03 +2.19% BULLISH above all - RSI 64.6 - MACD bullish - 0.9% off 52w high - POC +10.7%
ABF 2063.00 -0.39% BULLISH above all - RSI 53.8 - MACD bearish - 12.5% off - POC +4.4%
ADM 4068.00 +1.80% BULLISH above all - RSI 69.9 - MACD bullish - 0.2% off 52w high - POC +13.2% - rv 1.76 HEAVY
ANTO 4023.00 +1.31% BULLISH above all - RSI 59.3 - MACD bullish - 10.1% off - POC +4.7%
AV 729.60 +0.14% BULLISH above all - RSI 64.1 - MACD flat - 1.5% off - POC +9.2%
AZN 12464.0 +2.96% MIXED above EMA20, below EMA50, below EMA200 - RSI 53.9 (+6. - MACD bullish - 20.8% off - POC -1.6%
BAE 2101.00 -0.05% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 48.2 - MACD bearish - 11.0% off - POC +6.7% - 5-day down streak
BARC 497.00 +0.54% BEARISH below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 42.9 - MACD bearish - 7.7% off - POC -1.4%
BATS 4131.00 -1.31% BEARISH below all - RSI 38.4 - MACD bearish - 17.4% off - POC -7.7%
BNZL 2791.00 -0.39% BULLISH above all - RSI 55.9 - MACD bearish - 3.3% off - POC +5.9%
BP 529.25 -0.77% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 50.1 - MACD BEARISH CROSS today - 13.2% off - POC +2.7%
CPG 3085.00 -1.97% BEARISH below all - RSI 41.7 (-4. - MACD bearish - 17.7% off - POC -4.2% - lost EMA200 today
DGE 1729.50 -2.67% BULLISH above all - RSI 56.2 (-7.6) - MACD bearish - 18.0% off - POC +8.2%
EXPN 3012.50 +1.60% BULLISH above all - RSI 62.7 - MACD bullish - 24.4% off - POC +12.2%
GLEN 601.00 +1.03% BULLISH above all - RSI 67.1 - MACD bullish - 3.3% off - POC +10.0%
GSK 1910.00 +0.47% MIXED above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 49.5 - MACD bullish - 16.3% off - POC -1.3%
HLN 369.10 -0.14% BULLISH above all - RSI 57.2 - MACD BULLISH CROSS today - 11.3% off - POC +4.7%
HSBA 1517.00 -0.80% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 50.1 - MACD bearish - 8.2% off - POC +2.5%
III 2903.00 -1.76% BULLISH above EMA20 and EMA50, below EMA200 - RSI 60.5 (-5.9) - MACD bearish - 35.4% off - POC +13.7%
IMB 2521.00 -0.24% BEARISH below all - RSI 33.1 - MACD bearish - 24.5% off - POC -8.5%
INF 900.20 -0.18% BULLISH above all - RSI 51.4 - MACD bearish - 10.0% off - POC +2.5% - rv 1.26
LGEN 290.00 +0.94% BEARISH below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 43.0 - MACD bearish - 8.8% off - POC -0.2%
LLOY 111.40 -0.29% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 45.3 - MACD bearish - 5.5% off - POC +1.2%
LSEG 8798.00 +0.02% BULLISH above EMA20 and EMA50, below EMA200 - RSI 54.2 - MACD bullish - 13.2% off - POC +1.6% - 4-day up streak
NG 1184.00 +1.02% BEARISH below all - RSI 45.4 (+4.3) - MACD bearish - 17.1% off - POC -2.5%
NWG 690.30 +0.15% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 50.6 - MACD bearish - 4.9% off - POC +3.4%
PRU 1036.00 -0.67% BEARISH below all - RSI 48.1 - MACD bearish - 16.3% off - POC +1.5% - lost EMA20 today
REL 2617.00 -1.21% BULLISH above EMA20 and EMA50, below EMA200 - RSI 53.7 - MACD bearish - 26.9% off - POC +4.2%
RIO 7733.56 +0.61% BULLISH above all - RSI 65.9 - MACD bullish - 15.2% off - POC +7.0% - 5-day up streak
RKT 5150.00 -0.46% BULLISH above EMA20 and EMA50, below EMA200 - RSI 52.7 - MACD bearish - 20.9% off - POC +4.0%
RR. 1529.40 +1.85% BULLISH above all - RSI 57.4 (+4. - MACD bearish - 3.6% off - POC +7.9% - reclaimed EMA20
RTO 345.00 -1.32% BEARISH below all - RSI 30.9 - MACD flat - 32.0% off - POC -13.3% - ADX 38.2
SGE 1104.50 -0.18% BULLISH above all - RSI 73.8 OVERBOUGHT - MACD bullish - 6.5% off - POC +23.0% - ADX 50 EXTENDED
SHEL 3384.00 -0.35% BULLISH above all - RSI 58.0 (-1.6) - MACD BEARISH CROSS today - 5.8% off - POC +7.0%
SSE 2404.00 +1.65% MIXED above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 51.0 (+6. - MACD BULLISH CROSS today - 15.9% off - POC +0.3% CROSSED ABOVE
STAN 2144.50 -2.17% MIXED below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 46.1 (-7.4) - MACD bearish - 5.2% off - POC +2.3% - lost EMA20 today
TSCO 463.66 +0.34% MIXED above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200 - RSI 49.0 - MACD bearish - 10.9% off - POC -0.1% - 5-day up streak, weekly RSI +13.8
ULVR 4749.50 -0.59% BULLISH above all - RSI 56.7 - MACD bullish - 14.0% off - POC +4.5%
VOD 118.00 +0.60% BULLISH above all - RSI 52.2 - MACD bearish - 4.7% off - POC +3.7% - reclaimed EMA20
WPP 392.00 -1.93% BULLISH above all - RSI 64.1 - MACD bearish - 5.0% off - POC +26.7% - ADX 41.6

Significant RSI moves (greater than 5 points day over day): AZN +6.8, SSE +6.8 || DGE -7.6, STAN -7.4, III -5.9

Verification: all 40 EMA classifications were re-checked programmatically (close versus EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 individually, strict numeric comparison, no rounding tolerance). Zero mismatches. CPG required the pence-scale correction - it arrived quoted in pounds and every price field was multiplied by 100 to match the .GB_SB quote.



TOP SWING SETUPS


1. AAL - Anglo American - LONG - 52-week high breakout - CONTINUING

Entry: above 4215 (Tuesday's high) · Stop: 4008 · T1: 4415 · T2: 4630 · R:R: 2.0

The strongest structural setup on the board. BULLISH above all three EMAs (4200.03 versus EMA20 3938.55, EMA50 3830.03, EMA200 3486.27), RSI 64.6 with room before overbought, 3-day up streak, week +4.45%. Price sits 0.9% below its 52-week high of 4239 - the tightest of any FTSE name here bar ADM. Trading 10.7% above POC at 3795.51, so value is well below and there is no overhead volume shelf to fight through above 4239. Stop is 1.4 ATR (ATR 138.1) and sits beneath EMA9 at 4032.55 and classic S3 at 4030.02 - a double-confluence floor. Copper near record highs is the fundamental engine. Do not chase inside 4215-4239; wait for the clean break of 4239 or a pullback that holds 4110.


2. ANTO - Antofagasta - LONG - momentum continuation - CONTINUING

Entry: above 4033 (Tuesday's high) · Stop: 3865 · T1: 4200 · T2: 4475 · R:R: 2.6

Best risk-reward of the five. The strongest weekly performer in the FTSE universe at +8.79% with a 5-day up streak and RSI +12.2 on the week to 59.3. Crucially, RSI is still under 60 despite that run, so momentum is not stretched - unlike AAL or ADM, this one has genuine room. BULLISH above all EMAs (4023 versus 3812.50, 3803.02, 3516.29). Only 4.7% above POC at 3843.68, so the volume shelf is close beneath as support. 10.1% below the 52-week high of 4475, which is the natural T2. Stop at 3865 is 0.9 ATR (ATR 169.2) and sits on classic S3 at 3864.67 - exact pivot confluence. Caveat: rv is only 0.30, so Tuesday's move came on thin volume. Widen the stop or halve the size if you want cover for a low-liquidity whipsaw.


3. SSE - LONG - triple-trigger reversal - NEW

Entry: above 2413 (Tuesday's high, which also clears EMA50 at 2408.60) · Stop: 2358 · T1: 2459 · T2: 2530 · R:R: 2.1

The single cleanest new trigger in Tuesday's data. Three separate events fired on the same session: crossed above EMA20, MACD bullish crossover, and crossed above POC. RSI +6.8 to 51.0. Closed +1.65% at 2404. The entry level is chosen deliberately - 2413 is Tuesday's high and sits just above EMA50 at 2408.60, so the trigger and the last remaining EMA hurdle clear together. That converts a MIXED structure into BULLISH above all three in one move. Stop 2358 is 1.0 ATR (ATR 47.2) and rests on classic S2 at 2358. T1 2459 is classic R3. The honest caveat: ADX is 8.8. There is no trend here at all yet - this is the first day of a possible turn, so size it as a probe, not a conviction position. 15.9% below the 52-week high of 2859.89 leaves plenty of recovery room if it works.


4. AZN - AstraZeneca - LONG - oversold bounce - NEW

Entry: above 12472 (Tuesday's high) · Stop: 12105 · T1: 12631 (EMA50) · T2: 13190 (EMA200) · R:R: 2.0

Biggest single-day gain of any FTSE name at +2.96%, RSI +6.8 to 53.9, crossed above EMA20 at 12146.57, week +3.27%. But be clear about what this is: AZN is MIXED - above EMA20, below EMA50 (12631.50), below EMA200 (13190.43), and trading 1.6% below POC at 12671.39. It is 20.8% off its 52-week high. This is a counter-trend bounce from a badly damaged chart, and the POC at 12671 sits almost exactly on EMA50 at 12631 - a dense confluence resistance band at 12630-12670 that is the real test. Stop 12105 is 1.0 ATR (ATR 363.2) and sits just below EMA20. Take T1 seriously; do not assume T2. ADX 34 confirms the prevailing move has been directional, and that direction has been down - respect it.


5. TSCO - Tesco - LONG - momentum reclaim - NEW

Entry: above 466.60 (clears EMA50 466.53, POC 464.01 and classic R1 465.71 together) · Stop: 457.60 · T1: 471.81 · T2: 480.00 · R:R: 1.5

The quiet accumulation story. TSCO posted the largest weekly RSI gain of any FTSE name at +13.8 points, on a 5-day up streak, and crossed above EMA20 at 463.31 on Tuesday. ADX 34.4 confirms a real directional move underneath. Structure is MIXED - above EMA20 and EMA200 (456.65), below EMA50. The entry level is where three things stack: EMA50 at 466.53, POC at 464.01 just below, and classic R1 at 465.71. Clearing 466.60 flips it BULLISH above all and puts price above the volume shelf. Stop 457.60 is Tuesday's low, 0.9 ATR (ATR 10.1). Warning: rv 0.23 - the thinnest volume of any setup here. This one needs volume confirmation on the break or it is noise. Lowest R:R of the five, included for the momentum quality rather than the payoff.



INTRADAY SETUPS


1. SSE - LONG - pivot bounce - triple confluence

Direction: LONG · Entry: 2397 on pullback · Stop: 2382 · T1: 2413 · T2: 2420 · R:R: 1.6

The best confluence on the entire board. Classic pivot 2397.00, POC 2396.74 and EMA20 2395.56 all sit inside a 1.5-point band. Three independent methods marking the same price. Buy the first touch of 2396-2397, stop 2382 below Camarilla S4 at 2382.55. T1 is Tuesday's high 2413, T2 is classic R1 2420. If 2395 fails on a closing basis the whole triple-trigger reversal thesis is invalidated for the day - so this level is both the entry and the line in the sand.


2. BATS - British American Tobacco - SHORT - Camarilla range fade

Direction: SHORT · Entry: 4153 (Camarilla R3) · Stop: 4176 · T1: 4116 · T2: 4097 · R:R: 2.5

Textbook Camarilla short. Price closed at 4131, below the pivot at 4143.33 - the standard precondition for fading R3. BATS is BEARISH below all three EMAs (EMA20 4267.63, EMA50 4392.27, EMA200 4321.55), RSI 38.4, and 7.7% below POC at 4473.89, meaning every rally is selling into a volume void with no support beneath. Short the tag of Camarilla R3 at 4153.28, stop 4176 just above R4 at 4175.55. T1 is Camarilla S2 4116.15, T2 is classic S1 4096.67. Weakest sector on the board, weakest structure - the highest-probability short here.


3. STAN - Standard Chartered - SHORT - fresh breakdown retest

Direction: SHORT · Entry: 2152 (Camarilla R1 rejection) · Stop: 2167 · T1: 2114.67 · T2: 2100 · R:R: 3.4

Highest R:R of any setup in this report. STAN was the worst FTSE performer on Tuesday at -2.17% with RSI down 7.4 points, and lost EMA20 (2179.19) for the first time in this leg. Close 2144.50 is below the pivot at 2164.83. Sell the retest into Camarilla R1 at 2151.83, stop 2167 just above both Camarilla R3 (2166.50) and the pivot (2164.83) - a tight 15-point risk. T1 is classic S1 at 2114.67. T2 at 2100 is where Camarilla S4 (2100.50) and POC (2096.57) converge, which is the logical place for the decline to find a bid. The banking sector losing the 20-day as a group gives this a tailwind.


4. GLEN - Glencore - LONG - Camarilla range reversal

Direction: LONG · Entry: 597.65 (Camarilla S3) · Stop: 594.00 · T1: 602.12 · T2: 604.36 · R:R: 1.8

Buy the dip in the strongest sector. GLEN closed 601.00, above the pivot at 598.93, BULLISH above all three EMAs, RSI 67.1, week +3.83%, and 10.0% above POC at 546.16. Classic Camarilla long: enter on the tag of S3 at 597.65, stop 594.00 just below S4 at 594.29, T1 at Camarilla R1 602.12 and T2 at R3 604.36. Tight ATR of 16.17 keeps the risk small. Only 3.3% below the 52-week high of 621.50 - if the miners keep running, 604 will not hold as a ceiling.


5. RIO - Rio Tinto - LONG - Camarilla breakout

Direction: LONG · Entry: above 7793 (break of Camarilla R4) · Stop: 7704 · T1: 7881 · T2: 7960 · R:R: 1.9

Trend-day continuation. RIO is on a 5-day up streak, week +4.89%, RSI 65.9 (+9.5 on the week), BULLISH above all three EMAs, 7.0% above POC at 7227.88. Close 7733.56 sits above the pivot at 7704.52. A clean break of Camarilla R4 at 7792.96 is the standard breakout trigger - above that level the Camarilla framework expects trend, not range. Stop 7704 at the pivot. T1 is classic R3 at 7881.04. Caveat: rv 0.32. Volume is thin, so demand a decisive break rather than a marginal one, and stand aside if it stalls between 7793 and 7810.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD


AAL - Anglo American - close 4200.03
Cam: S4 4142.28 · S3 4171.16 · S1 4190.41 || R1 4209.66 · R3 4228.91 · R4 4257.78
Classic: S3 4030.02 · S2 4070.01 · S1 4135.02 · Pivot 4175.01 · R1 4240.02 · R2 4280.01 · R3 4345.02
EMAs: EMA9 4032.55 · EMA20 3938.55 · EMA50 3830.03 · EMA200 3486.27 || POC 3795.51
Prev H/L: 4215.00 / 4110.00 || 52w H/L: 4239.00 / 2206.39 || ATR 138.10 · ADX 20.7 · rv 0.37


ANTO - Antofagasta - close 4023.00
Cam: S4 3969.65 · S3 3996.33 · S1 4014.11 || R1 4031.89 · R3 4049.68 · R4 4076.35
Classic: S3 3864.67 · S2 3900.33 · S1 3961.67 · Pivot 3997.33 · R1 4058.67 · R2 4094.33 · R3 4155.67
EMAs: EMA9 3849.31 · EMA20 3812.50 · EMA50 3803.02 · EMA200 3516.29 || POC 3843.68
Prev H/L: 4033.00 / 3936.00 || 52w H/L: 4475.00 / 2115.00 || ATR 169.23 · ADX 18.9 · rv 0.30


SSE - close 2404.00
Cam: S4 2382.55 · S3 2393.28 · S1 2400.43 || R1 2407.58 · R3 2414.73 · R4 2425.45
Classic: S3 2342.00 · S2 2358.00 · S1 2381.00 · Pivot 2397.00 · R1 2420.00 · R2 2436.00 · R3 2459.00
EMAs: EMA9 2392.58 · EMA20 2395.56 · EMA50 2408.60 · EMA200 2344.27 || POC 2396.74
Prev H/L: 2413.00 / 2374.00 || 52w H/L: 2859.89 / 1597.00 || ATR 47.23 · ADX 8.8 · rv 0.45
Confluence: Pivot 2397.00, POC 2396.74 and EMA20 2395.56 within 1.5 points - the tightest cluster in the book.


RIO - Rio Tinto - close 7733.56
Cam: S4 7674.16 · S3 7703.86 · S1 7723.66 || R1 7743.46 · R3 7763.26 · R4 7792.96
Classic: S3 7557.04 · S2 7596.52 · S1 7665.04 · Pivot 7704.52 · R1 7773.04 · R2 7812.52 · R3 7881.04
EMAs: EMA9 7497.73 · EMA20 7356.99 · EMA50 7268.56 · EMA200 6792.55 || POC 7227.88
Prev H/L: 7744.00 / 7636.00 || 52w H/L: 9117.00 / 4528.00 || ATR 186.86 · ADX 20.1 · rv 0.32
Confluence: Camarilla S3 7703.86 sits on the classic pivot 7704.52 - a firm intraday floor.


AZN - AstraZeneca - close 12464.00
Cam: S4 12272.60 · S3 12368.30 · S1 12432.10 || R1 12495.90 · R3 12559.70 · R4 12655.40
Classic: S3 11886.67 · S2 12005.33 · S1 12234.67 · Pivot 12353.33 · R1 12582.67 · R2 12701.33 · R3 12930.67
EMAs: EMA9 12084.33 · EMA20 12146.57 · EMA50 12631.50 · EMA200 13190.43 || POC 12671.39
Prev H/L: 12472.00 / 12124.00 || 52w H/L: 15730.00 / 10524.00 || ATR 363.19 · ADX 34.0 · rv 0.34
Confluence: EMA50 12631.50, Camarilla R4 12655.40, POC 12671.39 and classic R2 12701.33 form a dense resistance band at 12630-12700. That is the wall.



BEARISH WARNINGS

FRESH BREAKDOWNS - these happened on Tuesday and deserve priority attention.

BP - the most deteriorating large-cap in the set. Crossed below EMA20 (531.33) and printed a MACD bearish crossover on the same session. Three-day down streak, week -1.77%, weekly RSI -6.4 to 50.1. It still holds EMA50 (525.54) and EMA200 (502.60) so structure is MIXED, not broken - but 525.54 is the line. A close below EMA50 turns this into a full breakdown. What makes it more concerning: this is happening with Brent near 94 dollars. When an oil major cannot rally on a strong oil price, the weakness is company-specific and worth taking seriously.

STAN - lost EMA20 hard. -2.17% on the day, worst in the FTSE set, RSI -7.4 to 46.1, closed 2144.50 versus EMA20 2179.19. Downside targets: POC 2096.57 and Camarilla S4 2100.50 converge at roughly 2098, then EMA50 at 2122.27 sits above that as the first shelf. Watch EMA50 - if 2122 goes, 2098 is next.

CPG - Compass - lost EMA200 today. Now BEARISH below all three EMAs (3085.00 versus 3170.00, 3175.00, 3103.00), RSI 41.7 and falling 4.8 points, 4.2% below POC at 3220.00. ADX is only 11 so the move lacks conviction, but a fresh EMA200 loss is the classic first step of a Stage 4 transition. Note: CPG required the pence-scale correction, so treat its levels as approximate.

III - 3i Group - lost EMA200 today at 2907.55, closing 2903.00 on -1.76% with RSI down 5.9 to 60.5. Still above EMA20 (2817.43) and EMA50 (2710.54), and a remarkable 13.7% above POC at 2552.25, so this is a warning rather than a breakdown. But it is 35.4% below its 52-week high of 4497 - the longer-term damage is severe and the EMA200 loss is the market re-testing that damage.

HSBA and PRU both lost EMA20. HSBA closed 1517.00 versus EMA20 1521.42 - marginal, but combined with STAN it makes three banks below the 20-day. PRU is worse: at 1036.00 it is now BEARISH below all three EMAs (1039.77, 1047.90, 1052.16) and 16.3% off its 52-week high.

SHEL - MACD bearish crossover despite still being BULLISH above all EMAs. Weekly RSI -5.5, three-day down streak. ADX 35.2 says the prevailing trend is strong, so this is early - but paired with BP it confirms sector-wide energy weakness.

BAE - 5-day down streak, the only sustained multi-day decline in the FTSE set. Week -2.73%, weekly RSI -7.9, below EMA20 at 2116.00 area. Structure still MIXED with EMA50 and EMA200 beneath, but the persistence is the signal.

RTO - Rentokil - the weakest name in the book, avoid entirely. RSI 30.9 and approaching oversold, BEARISH below all EMAs, 13.3% below POC at 398.07, ADX 38.2 confirming a strong downtrend, 32.0% off the 52-week high, and only 4.7% above its 52-week low of 329.60. Do not catch this knife. IMB is close behind: RSI 33.1, 8.5% below POC, and its 52-week low of 2476 is just 1.8% below Tuesday's close.

Overextension warnings on the long side. SGE has RSI 73.8, ADX 50 and trades 23.0% above POC - the most stretched name in the set by a distance. WPP is 26.7% above POC with ADX 41.6. ADM has RSI 69.9 and is 0.2% from its 52-week high on rv 1.76. These are not shorts, but they are not entries either - chasing here is how good trends take your money.

Volume caveat across the board: of the 40 names, only ADM (rv 1.76) and INF (rv 1.26) traded above average volume. Twenty-eight names came in below rv 0.75 and thirteen below 0.40. This is a thin, late-August tape. Widen stops, halve size, and be sceptical of breakouts that are not confirmed by a genuine pickup in volume.



EVENTS CALENDAR

This week
Thu 27 Aug - Bank of England capital issuance statistics
Fri 28 Aug - Bank of England credit union statistics
Thu 27 Aug - the last of August's four ex-dividend Thursdays. August is one of the heaviest ex-div months of the UK year, with 41 dividend payments landing and companies representing over half the index by weight going ex during the month. Expect mechanical index drag on Thursday morning and do not misread it as selling.

Already gone ex this month
13 Aug - SHEL and GSK (roughly a fifth of the index by weight), paying 21 Sept and 8 Oct respectively
20 Aug - LGEN (yielding 7.3%), paying 25 Sept
August also - BT.A, GLEN, NWG

Next week
Tue 1 Sept - Bank of England effective interest rates
Tue 1 Sept - Bank of England money and credit data

Macro watch
Bank Rate held at 3.75% on 30 July, MPC split 6-3, with explicit guidance that rates could rise if Middle East-linked inflation pressure intensifies. With Brent near 94 dollars, that risk is live. The next MPC decision is the dominant scheduled event on the horizon for UK rate-sensitives - banks, housebuilders and utilities.

Commodity watch
Gold above 4,600 dollars, copper elevated after record highs above 14,000 dollars a tonne on an LME supply squeeze and expected Chilean output cuts, Brent around 94 dollars. The mining trade is entirely dependent on this holding. Any sharp reversal in copper takes AAL, ANTO, GLEN and RIO with it - and those four are carrying the index.



Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Tuesday 25 August 2026
Data: close Fri 21 Aug 2026 - latest scanner snapshot (2 sessions old, see note) · UKX: 10,854.32 (Mon 24 Aug close, +0.35%) · Futures: 10,482.3 - far-dated contract, dividend-discounted, NOT a directional gap

DATA-FRESHNESS WARNING: the TV webhook has not delivered a scanner snapshot since Friday 21 August. Every price, EMA, RSI, POC, pivot and Camarilla level below is derived from the 21 August close. Two further sessions have traded since. Treat swing structure as broadly valid, but recompute all intraday pivot and Camarilla levels from Monday's actual H/L/C before trading them. Nothing here is a live level for today.



MARKET OVERVIEW

The FTSE 100 closed Monday 24 August at 10,854.32, up 37.76 points or 0.35% from Friday's 10,816.56. The index opened at 10,816.33, dipped to 10,798.98 early, then ground higher all afternoon to a 10,864.75 high and settled near the top of the range. That is a constructive close - buyers in control into the bell on the last full week of August.

Futures note: the quoted FTSE 100 future prints around 10,482.3 (opened 10,493.6, day range 10,445.8 to 10,507.7). That sits roughly 370 points BELOW cash. This is the contract roll - the front future has rolled to a far-dated quarterly which trades below spot purely on the dividend discount. It is not a bearish gap signal. Cross-checked against the cash close and the news tone, the bias into Tuesday is flat to modestly firm, not lower.

Drivers:
· Copper miners leading - copper broadly flat at US$6.59/lb, but Antofagasta +1.5% and Anglo American +1.2% on Monday, extending a very strong week.
· Gold firm at roughly US$4,646/oz, +0.95% - supportive for the precious complex.
· Brent softer near US$93.16, down about 1.3%, ahead of fresh US sanctions on Iran. Watch SHEL and BP - both are technically strong but had a red Friday.
· Wall Street mixed Monday: Dow +0.2% at 53,382, S&P 500 -0.4% at 7,643, Nasdaq -1.0% at 25,926. Tech is the soft spot.
· Monday laggards: Kingfisher -1.1%; Auto Trader, BAE Systems, AstraZeneca and Melrose all around -1%.

Breadth of the 40-name scanner universe (21 Aug close): 14 BULLISH (above all three EMAs), 4 RECOVERING, 11 MIXED, 11 BEARISH. Net constructive, with the strength heavily concentrated in mining and energy and the weakness concentrated in tobacco, utilities and support services.



NOTABLE CHANGES - day over day (20 to 21 Aug)

1. ANTO - the standout. +5.8% on the day. RSI surged 8.3 points to 55.8. Crossed ABOVE EMA20, ABOVE EMA50 and ABOVE POC all in one session. Week +8.08%, RSI week +12.7. Three-day up streak.
2. RKT - RSI surged 10.0 points to 52.9, +3.1% on the day, crossed ABOVE both EMA20 and EMA50. Still capped by EMA200 at 5212.25.
3. BAE - fresh breakdown. Crossed BELOW EMA20. Five-day down streak, week -5.09%, RSI week -17.6 points. The sharpest deterioration in the universe.
4. LGEN - five-day down streak, week -6.08%, RSI week -17.7 points. RSI 35.8, below EMA20 and EMA50, below POC. Relative volume 0.92 - the highest in the FTSE set, so this is genuine distribution, not thin drift.
5. AZN - crossed ABOVE EMA20 on a five-day up streak, week +5.93%, RSI week +14.5. Still below EMA50 (12,659.59) and EMA200 (13,208.59) - a recovery attempt, not a trend change yet.
6. TSCO - crossed ABOVE EMA200 (456.53 vs close 456.94) with RSI +7.4 points. Marginal, but the first structural improvement in weeks.
7. LLOY - crossed ABOVE EMA50 (111.08 vs close 111.10). Wafer-thin, and still below EMA20 at 113.19.
8. MACD bearish crossovers: AV, WPP and NG all flipped bearish. VOD crossed BELOW EMA20. RTO alone turned MACD bullish, from a deeply oversold RSI of 28.9.



SECTOR HEATMAP

MINING - strongest sector, moving as a bloc
ANTO +5.77%, AAL +2.80%, GLEN +2.05%, RIO +2.03%. All four BULLISH on the strict EMA test and all four trading ABOVE their POC. Weekly: ANTO +8.08%, GLEN +7.36%, RIO +7.33%, AAL +3.19%. AAL is only 3.8% off its 52-week high, GLEN only 4.0%. This is the cleanest sector-wide trend on the board.

ENERGY - strong structure, red Friday
SHEL -1.02% and BP -0.98% on the day but both BULLISH above all EMAs and both above POC. Weekly BP +5.01%, SHEL +2.10%. Brent softness is the near-term headwind.

BANKS - uniformly soft
LLOY, BARC, HSBA, NWG and STAN every one closed below its EMA20. Weekly: BARC -4.72%, RIO aside the banks were the drag - STAN -3.70%, NWG -3.56%, LLOY -3.14%. BARC is the weakest at RSI 38.5 and below both EMA20 and EMA50. Friday's green candles were bounces inside a downtrend, not reversals.

TOBACCO - worst sector on the board
IMB RSI 29.5, BATS RSI 36.8. Both BEARISH below all three EMAs, both below POC, both with deeply negative MACD. IMB is 25.3% off its 52-week high and sitting only 20p above its 52-week low of 2476.

UTILITIES - deteriorating together
NG -1.14% with a fresh MACD bearish crossover, BEARISH below all EMAs, below POC. SSE below EMA20 and EMA50 though still above EMA200. Both under pressure.

PHARMA - mixed, improving
AZN MIXED (above EMA20, below EMA50 and EMA200) but on a five-day up streak. GSK MIXED (above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200). HLN BULLISH above all three, four-day up streak.

CONSUMER and STAPLES - quietly repairing
ABF BULLISH, crossed above EMA20, four-day up streak. ULVR RECOVERING, four-day up streak. DGE BULLISH. RKT RECOVERING. TSCO reclaimed EMA200. CPG is the outlier - BEARISH below all three EMAs, RSI 40.2.

DEFENCE - rolling over
BAE below EMA20 on a five-day down streak. RR. also below EMA20, week -4.08%. Both still above EMA50 and EMA200, so this is a pullback rather than a break - for now.



DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS - 40 names, 21 Aug close
Format: TICKER · close · day% · trend · RSI · MACD · % from 52w high · vs POC · notes

BULLISH - above all three EMAs (14)
ANTO 3920.00 · +5.77% · RSI 55.8 (+8.3) · MACD -3.74 vs sig 1.74 bearish · -12.4% · ABOVE POC 3864.79 · triple cross NEW
AAL 4077.00 · +2.80% · RSI 60.2 (+4.3) · MACD 79.24 vs 71.54 bullish · -3.8% · ABOVE POC 3793.62
GLEN 596.50 · +2.05% · RSI 66.3 (+4.3) · MACD 12.09 vs 8.81 bullish · -4.0% · ABOVE POC 547.25
RIO 7656.00 · +2.03% · RSI 64.0 (+3. · MACD 94.64 vs 67.76 bullish · -16.0% · ABOVE POC 7249.53
SGE 1098.00 · +1.10% · RSI 73.5 overbought · MACD 51.49 vs 48.86 bullish · -7.0% · ABOVE POC 891.14 · 4-day up streak
ABF 2051.00 · +0.98% · RSI 52.3 · MACD 7.50 vs 17.93 bearish · -13.1% · ABOVE POC 1966.41 · crossed above EMA20
ADM 3956.00 · +0.97% · RSI 64.3 · MACD 82.08 vs 78.11 bullish · -1.2% · ABOVE POC 3555.84 · 4-day up streak
HLN 362.10 · +0.61% · RSI 51.2 · MACD -0.79 vs 0.20 bearish · -13.0% · ABOVE POC 351.31 · crossed above EMA20
AV 716.60 · +0.34% · RSI 59.0 · MACD 13.31 vs 13.98 bearish cross · -3.2% · ABOVE POC 663.25
WPP 389.10 · +0.28% · RSI 65.5 · MACD 28.46 vs 28.93 bearish cross · -5.7% · ABOVE POC 306.92
EXPN 2958.00 · -0.27% · RSI 59.7 · MACD 52.06 vs 49.47 bullish · -25.8% · ABOVE POC 2678.62 · week +5.49%
DGE 1718.50 · -0.29% · RSI 57.2 · MACD 35.89 vs 42.53 bearish · -19.8% · ABOVE POC 1592.17
BP 546.80 · -0.98% · RSI 58.6 · MACD 5.91 vs 4.71 bullish · -10.3% · ABOVE POC 515.35 · week +5.01%
SHEL 3405.07 · -1.02% · RSI 60.7 (-4.7) · MACD 56.20 vs 53.38 bullish · -5.2% · ABOVE POC 3158.24

RECOVERING - above EMA20 and EMA50, still below EMA200 (4)
RKT 5150.00 · +3.06% · RSI 52.9 (+10.0) · MACD 1.87 vs 33.74 bearish · -20.9% · ABOVE POC 4927.75 · EMA200 5212.25 is the wall
III 2876.00 · +2.97% · RSI 61.2 (+6.0) · MACD 45.49 vs 57.44 bearish · -36.0% · ABOVE POC 2525.48 · EMA200 2906.98
REL 2610.34 · +0.90% · RSI 53.8 · MACD 7.32 vs 16.28 bearish · -27.5% · ABOVE POC 2509.04 · 4-day up streak, week +5.81%
ULVR 4670.00 · +0.45% · RSI 52.4 · MACD -0.70 vs 9.92 bearish · -15.5% · ABOVE POC 4513.46 · EMA200 4678.33 just overhead

MIXED (11)
AZN 12228.00 · +1.16% · above EMA20, below EMA50, below EMA200 · RSI 49.4 · -22.3% · BELOW POC 12692.98 · 5-day up streak
GSK 1917.00 · -0.18% · above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 50.5 · -16.0% · BELOW POC 1934.12
LLOY 111.10 · +1.23% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 44.1 (+4.5) · -5.8% · ABOVE POC 109.53
HSBA 1520.80 · +1.21% · below EMA20 (1521.35 - by 0.55p), above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 51.4 (+4.2) · -8.0% · ABOVE POC 1475.94
STAN 2161.00 · +0.37% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 48.5 · -4.5% · ABOVE POC 2090.99
NWG 682.00 · +0.65% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 46.3 · -6.1% · ABOVE POC 664.74
INF 898.40 · +0.88% · below EMA20 (899.28 - by 0.88p), above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 50.8 · -10.2% · ABOVE POC 875.65 · rv 0.12, extremely thin
RR. 1500.00 · +0.04% · below EMA20 (1501.87), above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 52.4 · -5.4% · ABOVE POC 1408.61
BNZL 2754.00 · -0.07% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 49.8 · -4.6% · ABOVE POC 2623.91
VOD 117.25 · -0.64% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 50.5 · -5.3% · ABOVE POC 113.66 · crossed BELOW EMA20
BAE 2127.00 · -0.84% · below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 51.6 (-2. · -9.9% · ABOVE POC 1965.83 · crossed BELOW EMA20

BEARISH - below EMA20 and EMA50 (11)
RTO 345.30 · +1.23% · below all three · RSI 28.9 oversold · MACD -21.28 vs -21.46 bullish cross · -31.9% · BELOW POC 400.71
IMB 2496.50 · -0.74% · below all three · RSI 29.5 oversold · MACD -71.21 vs -48.19 · -25.3% · BELOW POC 2763.05 · 52w low 2476
LGEN 284.40 · -0.66% · below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 35.8 · MACD -0.42 vs 2.46 · -10.6% · BELOW POC 290.48 · rv 0.92 real selling
BATS 4127.00 · -0.82% · below all three · RSI 36.8 · MACD -111.48 vs -93.08 · -17.5% · BELOW POC 4482.84
BARC 491.00 · +0.41% · below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 38.5 · MACD -3.31 vs 0.67 · -8.8% · BELOW POC 502.73
CPG 3085.00 · +0.16% · below all three · RSI 40.2 · -17.7% · BELOW POC 3221.00 · scanner feed was quoted in pounds, prices multiplied by 100 to restore pence - treat CPG levels as approximate
NG 1173.00 · -1.14% · below all three · RSI 41.2 (-4.3) · MACD -9.93 vs -9.66 bearish cross · -17.9% · BELOW POC 1214.33
TSCO 456.94 · +1.86% · below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 43.8 (+7.4) · -12.2% · BELOW POC 462.88 · reclaimed EMA200
PRU 1025.00 · +1.28% · below all three · RSI 44.9 (+3.5) · MACD -10.36 vs -6.32 · -17.2% · BELOW POC 1025.15
LSEG 8614.00 · +0.84% · below all three · RSI 47.7 · MACD -60.72 vs -47.15 · -15.0% · BELOW POC 8667.90
SSE 2396.00 · +0.46% · below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200 · RSI 49.2 · MACD -2.82 vs -4.75 · -16.2% · ABOVE POC 2392.02

Verification: all 40 EMA classifications were re-checked programmatically against close vs EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200. Zero mismatches. One pence-scale correction applied (CPG).

Volume caveat: relative volume across the FTSE set is unusually low - 33 of 40 names printed rv below 0.5, and the entire set averages roughly 0.38. Late-August holiday liquidity. Widen stops, size down, and distrust marginal breakouts. The only names with meaningful participation were LGEN 0.92, ANTO 0.96, SHEL 0.67 and NG 0.56.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. ANTO - LONG - NEW (triggered 21 Aug)
The single cleanest new signal on the board. One session delivered a cross above EMA20 (3772.75), above EMA50 (3787.41) and above POC (3864.79), on +5.8% with RSI jumping 8.3 points and the best relative volume in the FTSE set at 0.96. Week +8.08%, three-day up streak. Copper miners were still bid on Monday (ANTO +1.5%).
Entry: 3865 to 3890 on a pullback into the POC and pivot cluster · Stop: 3700 (below EMA50 and the 3789.67 Camarilla S4) · T1: 4124 · T2: 4259 · R:R: 1.57 to T1, 2.39 to T2
Confluence: POC 3864.79 sits almost exactly on the pivot 3887.68 and just above the EMA20/EMA50 pair at 3772/3787 - a dense support shelf. ATR 179.
Caution: MACD is still below its signal line (-3.74 vs 1.74). The price cross has led the momentum cross. Wait for MACD to confirm or accept the extra risk.

2. AAL - LONG - CONTINUING
The best-positioned miner. BULLISH above all three EMAs, MACD bullish (79.24 vs 71.54), RSI 60.2 and rising, above POC 3793.62, and only 3.8% below its 52-week high of 4239. Gained 1.2% again on Monday.
Entry: 4020 to 4040 on a dip into the S1/Camarilla S4 zone (4022 / 4014.30) · Stop: 3880 (below EMA20 3891.03) · T1: 4239 (52-week high) · T2: 4400 · R:R: 1.39 to T1, 2.47 to T2
Confluence: EMA20 3891, EMA50 3803 and POC 3794 stack into a wide but solid base. ATR 143.78.
Caution: rv 0.35 - very thin. A 52-week-high breakout on this volume is suspect; prefer to buy the dip rather than chase the break.

3. RIO - LONG - CONTINUING
Week +7.33% with RSI up 15.9 points - the largest weekly RSI expansion in the FTSE universe. BULLISH above all three EMAs, MACD firmly bullish (94.64 vs 67.76), above POC 7249.53. Three-day up streak.
Entry: 7550 to 7620 (S1 7548.20 / pivot 7614.30) · Stop: 7230 (below POC and EMA50 7232.04) · T1: 7896 · T2: 8100 · R:R: 1.15 to T1, 1.83 to T2
Confluence: POC 7249.53 and EMA50 7232.04 sit within 18 points of each other - an unusually tight, high-quality support confluence. ATR 198.54.
Caution: R:R to T1 is under 1.5. Only worth taking on the deeper end of the entry band, and rv 0.32 is thin.

4. SGE - LONG on pullback only - CONTINUING
BULLISH above all three EMAs with a four-day up streak and week +4.97%. MACD bullish. But RSI is 73.5 - overbought, and the POC at 891.14 is 19% below spot, meaning there is no volume support anywhere near current price.
Entry: 1060 to 1070 only (S2 1062.91) · Stop: 1010 (just below EMA20 1016.56) · T1: 1138 · T2: 1181 (52-week high) · R:R: 1.42 to T1, 2.23 to T2
Do not chase at 1098. This is a wait-for-the-dip trade. If it does not come back to the EMA20, skip it.

5. RKT - LONG - NEW (triggered 21 Aug)
Biggest single-day RSI surge in the set, +10.0 points to 52.9, on +3.1%, reclaiming both EMA20 (5117.02) and EMA50 (5053.41) in one move. Above POC 4927.75.
Entry: 5080 to 5110 on a retest of the reclaimed EMA20 · Stop: 4970 (below EMA50 and S2 4942) · T1: 5270 · T2: 5374 · R:R: 1.31 to T1, 2.11 to T2
The wall: EMA200 at 5212.25. This is a RECOVERING name, not a trend name - it must clear 5212 to become anything more, and that level sits between T1 and entry. Expect a fight there.
Caution: rv 0.46, and MACD is deeply below signal (1.87 vs 33.74). Momentum has not confirmed.

Honourable mention - AZN
Crossed above EMA20 on a five-day up streak, week +5.93%, RSI week +14.5. But it closed BELOW POC 12,692.98, below EMA50 12,659.59 and below EMA200 13,208.59, and it was down about 1% on Monday. A counter-trend bounce inside a downtrend. If you want it: entry 12,230, stop 11,820, T1 12,660, T2 13,209 - R:R 1.05 to T1, 2.39 to T2. Only for those happy trading against the primary trend.



INTRADAY SETUPS

MANDATORY CAVEAT: every pivot and Camarilla figure below is calculated from the 21 August H/L/C. Monday 24 August has since traded. These are reference levels showing the shape of each setup, not live levels for today. Recompute from Monday's actual H/L/C before placing any order.

1. GLEN - Camarilla breakout LONG
Direction: Long · Entry: above 602.06 (Cam R4) · Stop: 595.50 · T1: 606.50 (R2) · T2: 611.60 (R3) · R:R: 1.46 to T2
Why: BULLISH above all three EMAs, week +7.36%, RSI 66.3, MACD bullish, three-day up streak, well above POC 547.25. The 21 Aug range was tight (601.40 high, 591.30 low) - a coiled range inside a strong uptrend is exactly the Camarilla R4 breakout condition.

2. AAL - pivot bounce LONG
Direction: Long · Entry: 4087.45 (Cam R1) reclaim after holding pivot 4081 · Stop: 4045.65 (Cam S3) · T1: 4108.35 (Cam R3) · T2: 4139.70 (Cam R4) · R:R: 1.25 to T2
Why: AAL closed at 4077 against a pivot of 4081 - dead on it. Holding the pivot in a name this close to its 52-week high is a high-probability long. Losing 4045.65 flips it and invalidates.

3. IMB - Camarilla breakdown SHORT
Direction: Short · Entry: below 2488.80 (Cam S3) · Stop: 2504.20 (pivot 2504.17) · T1: 2476.17 (S2) · T2: 2458.33 (S3) · R:R: 1.98 to T2
Why: BEARISH below all three EMAs, RSI 29.5, MACD -71.21 well below signal -48.19, below POC 2763.05, 25.3% off the 52-week high. The 52-week low at 2476 sits between T1 and T2 - expect a bounce attempt there, so bank T1.

4. BATS - Camarilla range fade SHORT
Direction: Short · Entry: rejection at 4132.68 (Cam R1) · Stop: 4144.05 (Cam R3, also the pivot 4144.33) · T1: 4115.63 (Cam S2) · T2: 4104.67 (S1) · R:R: 2.46 to T2
Why: Closed 4127, below the pivot. BEARISH below all three EMAs, RSI 36.8, MACD -111.48 vs -93.08, and a long way below POC 4482.84. Fading rallies into R1 is the correct posture in a name this weak.

5. RIO - Camarilla breakout LONG
Direction: Long · Entry: above 7751.64 (Cam R4) · Stop: 7671.94 (Cam R1) · T1: 7788.19 (R2) · T2: 7895.98 (R3) · R:R: 1.81 to T2
Why: Strongest weekly RSI expansion in the set. BULLISH structure, MACD bullish, above POC. Camarilla R4 breakouts work best when the daily trend already agrees, and here it does.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

ANTO - 3920.00
Cam: S4 3789.67 · S3 3854.83 · S1 3898.28 || R1 3941.72 · R3 3985.17 · R4 4050.33
Classic: S3 3548.38 · S2 3650.71 · S1 3785.35 · P 3887.68 · R1 4022.32 · R2 4124.65 · R3 4259.29
EMAs: 20 3772.75 · 50 3787.41 · 200 3506.72 · POC 3864.79 · ATR 179.00
Prev H/L: 3990.00 / 3753.03 · 52w H/L: 4475.00 / 2115.00

AAL - 4077.00
Cam: S4 4014.30 · S3 4045.65 · S1 4066.55 || R1 4087.45 · R3 4108.35 · R4 4139.70
Classic: S3 3908 · S2 3967 · S1 4022 · P 4081 · R1 4136 · R2 4195 · R3 4250
EMAs: 20 3891.03 · 50 3803.27 · 200 3472.86 · POC 3793.62 · ATR 143.78
Prev H/L: 4140.00 / 4026.00 · 52w H/L: 4239.00 / 2185.00

RIO - 7656.00
Cam: S4 7560.36 · S3 7608.18 · S1 7640.06 || R1 7671.94 · R3 7703.82 · R4 7751.64
Classic: S3 7374.31 · S2 7440.41 · S1 7548.20 · P 7614.30 · R1 7722.09 · R2 7788.19 · R3 7895.98
EMAs: 20 7279.20 · 50 7232.04 · 200 6774.09 · POC 7249.53 · ATR 198.54
Prev H/L: 7680.39 / 7506.50 · 52w H/L: 9117.00 / 4511.44

GLEN - 596.50
Cam: S4 590.95 · S3 593.72 · S1 595.57 || R1 597.43 · R3 599.28 · R4 602.06
Classic: S3 581.30 · S2 586.30 · S1 591.40 · P 596.40 · R1 601.50 · R2 606.50 · R3 611.60
EMAs: 20 559.51 · 50 549.71 · 200 502.52 · POC 547.25 · ATR 17.24
Prev H/L: 601.40 / 591.30 · 52w H/L: 621.50 / 281.93

SHEL - 3405.07
Cam: S4 3380.87 · S3 3392.97 · S1 3401.04 || R1 3409.10 · R3 3417.17 · R4 3429.27
Classic: S3 3346.38 · S2 3375.69 · S1 3390.38 · P 3419.69 · R1 3434.38 · R2 3463.69 · R3 3478.38
EMAs: 20 3327.28 · 50 3248.32 · 200 3080.15 · POC 3158.24 · ATR 61.61
Prev H/L: 3449.00 / 3405.00 · 52w H/L: 3591.50 / 2553.77



BEARISH WARNINGS

PRIORITY 1 - fresh EMA breaks on 21 Aug
BAE 2127.00 - crossed BELOW EMA20 (2143.97) on a five-day down streak. Week -5.09%, RSI week -17.6 points. Down another 1% on Monday. Still above EMA50 (2059.31) and EMA200 (1974.69), so 2059 is the line that matters - lose it and this becomes a proper trend break. The most rapidly deteriorating chart in the universe.
VOD 117.25 - crossed BELOW EMA20 (117.89) on a three-day down streak. RSI 50.5 and falling. EMA50 at 115.05 is the next support; below that and 113.66 POC is in play.

PRIORITY 2 - genuine distribution
LGEN 284.40 - five-day down streak, week -6.08%, RSI week -17.7 points (worst in the set), RSI 35.8, below EMA20 and EMA50, below POC 290.48. Critically, rv 0.92 is the highest FTSE relative volume on the board - in a week where everything else printed sub-0.5, this is real selling, not holiday drift. Next support EMA200 271.23. Avoid catching this knife.

PRIORITY 3 - fresh MACD bearish crossovers
NG 1173.00 - MACD crossed bearish (-9.93 vs -9.66), BEARISH below all three EMAs, below POC 1214.33, RSI down 4.3 points. Weakest utility.
WPP 389.10 - MACD crossed bearish (28.46 vs 28.93) with RSI at 65.5. The EMA structure is still BULLISH and the stock is well above POC 306.92, so this is an early warning on an extended name rather than a short signal.
AV 716.60 - MACD crossed bearish (13.31 vs 13.98). Structure still BULLISH, only 3.2% off its 52-week high. Watch EMA20 706.77.

PRIORITY 4 - established downtrends, no bounce signal yet
IMB 2496.50 - RSI 29.5, below all EMAs, sitting 20p above its 52-week low of 2476. MACD -71.21 and diverging further from signal. A break of 2476 opens fresh lows.
BATS 4127.00 - RSI 36.8, below all three EMAs, 356 points below POC 4482.84.
LSEG 8614.00 - BEARISH below all three EMAs, MACD -60.72 vs -47.15 and widening, below POC 8667.90.
CPG 3085.00 - BEARISH below all three EMAs, RSI 40.2, below POC 3221. Note the feed quoted CPG in pounds; prices were multiplied by 100 to restore pence, so treat these figures as approximate.
RTO 345.30 - RSI 28.9, deeply oversold, 31.9% off its 52-week high, 55 points below POC 400.71. MACD did turn bullish (-21.28 vs -21.46) - the first flicker of a base, but nowhere near a buy. Watch, do not touch.

PRIORITY 5 - the banks
Every single UK bank in the scanner closed below its EMA20: LLOY 111.10 vs 113.19, BARC 491.00 vs 509.23, HSBA 1520.80 vs 1521.35, NWG 682.00 vs 692.94, STAN 2161.00 vs 2181.78. Weekly returns were negative across the board (BARC -4.72%, STAN -3.70%, NWG -3.56%, LLOY -3.14%, HSBA -0.89%). BARC is the weakest at RSI 38.5 and below POC 502.73. Treat Friday's green candles as bounces, not reversals, until at least two of these reclaim their EMA20 together.



EVENTS CALENDAR

This week
· Wednesday - NVIDIA earnings. The single biggest global risk event of the week. Nasdaq already fell 1.0% on Monday. A miss hits UK tech-adjacent names and general risk appetite; the FTSE's mining and energy leadership offers some insulation but not immunity.
· Also reporting in the US this week: Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Intuit, Workday. Technology sits at the centre of a week shaped by trade tensions, bond-market nerves and Fed policy signals.
· US sanctions on Iran - Brent already down about 1.3% to US$93.16 into the announcement. Direct read-through to SHEL and BP, both of which are technically strong but were red on Friday.
· Copper flat at US$6.59/lb and gold firm at US$4,646/oz, +0.95%. The mining bloc (ANTO, AAL, RIO, GLEN) is the most commodity-sensitive part of this report - watch both prints daily.
· This is the last full trading week of August. Liquidity is thin - confirmed by the scanner data, where 33 of 40 names printed relative volume below 0.5. Expect exaggerated moves on light flow and unreliable breakouts.

Ex-dividend
A heavy August ex-dividend calendar has been running through the FTSE 100. Around a fifth of the index by weight went ex on 13 August, led by Shell and GSK ahead of payments on 21 September and 8 October. Legal and General, BT, Glencore and NatWest have also been among the August ex-dividend names. If a chart shows an unexplained gap down, check the ex-dividend date before treating it as a technical break - LGEN in particular sits in that window.

Verify before trading
Individual UK company reporting dates for this week were not confirmable from a primary source in this run. Check the LSE RNS feed for any of the names above before taking a position into an unknown announcement.



SUMMARY

Lean long the mining bloc - ANTO, AAL, RIO and GLEN are the only sector moving as a unit, all BULLISH above every EMA, all above POC, and copper miners were still bid on Monday. Avoid the banks and tobacco entirely. Watch BAE and LGEN for confirmation of breakdown. Do not chase SGE at RSI 73.5.

Above all, respect two things this session: the levels here are two sessions old, and August liquidity is exceptionally thin. Size down and recompute your intraday levels from Monday's close before you act on anything above.


Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Monday 24 August 2026
Data: close Friday 21 August 2026 - latest scanner snapshot (40 FTSE 100 constituents) · UKX: 10,816.56 (+68.40, +0.6%) · Futures: 10,482.3 - deferred contract, discount is dividend-related, NOT a directional gap



MARKET OVERVIEW

The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,816.56, up 68.40 points or 0.6%, capping a positive week. FTSE 250 ended +0.9% at 24,718.82; AIM All-Share +1.0% at 811.96. The lift came from two places: UK flash PMIs showed private-sector output expanding at the fastest pace since April, driven by a services turnaround, and a surging gold price dragged the mining complex higher.

Futures caution. The quoted FTSE 100 future prints 10,482.3 (opened 10,493.6, range 10,445.8-10,507.7). That is roughly 334 points, or 3.1%, BELOW the cash close. This is a deferred quarterly contract trading at a dividend discount - it is NOT a 300-point gap down. The news tone into Monday is constructive, not risk-off. Treat direction as NEUTRAL-TO-CONSTRUCTIVE and let the 08:00 auction set the tone.

Commodity backdrop. Gold settled Friday at USD 4,608/oz, +1.80%, its highest since mid-May, extending weekly gains near 5% on a softer dollar and safe-haven demand. Silver USD 68.99, +1.15%. Copper held around USD 6.46/lb as LME deliveries eased the supply squeeze. Brent, by contrast, fell sharply to around USD 104.4/bbl, down 4.21% - which is exactly why SHEL and BP were the two weakest FTSE names on the day despite both still sitting above all three EMAs.

Breadth and conviction. 26 of 40 tracked names closed higher. But relative volume is the story: only ANTO (0.96), LGEN (0.92), SHEL (0.67) and NG (0.56) traded above 0.5x average. Every other name printed thin summer volume, several below 0.35x. Per volume-profile discipline, low RV means genuine conviction is absent - widen stops and cut size. Do not treat Friday's moves as fully confirmed.

EMA structure across the 40: 14 BULLISH (above all three), 11 MIXED, 7 BEARISH (below all three), 4 bearish below 20/50, 4 bullish above 20/50.



NOTABLE CHANGES - DAY OVER DAY

ANTO - the standout. +5.77% on the day, RSI surged 8.3 points to 55.8, crossed ABOVE EMA20, ABOVE EMA50 and ABOVE its POC in a single session. Week +8.08%, three-day up streak, RSI week +12.7. This is a full structural flip from bearish to bullish and it came on the highest relative volume in the FTSE universe (0.96).

RKT - +3.06%, RSI surged 10 points to 52.9, crossed ABOVE EMA20 and ABOVE EMA50 on the same day. Still below EMA200 at 5212.25, so this is a recovery not a trend, but a genuine one.

AZN - crossed ABOVE EMA20, fifth consecutive up day, week +5.93%, RSI week +14.5. From a deeply oversold base 22.3% below its 52-week high. First real sign of life in the pharma heavyweight.

BAE - crossed BELOW EMA20, fifth consecutive down day, week -5.09%, RSI week -17.6 points. A fresh breakdown in a name that had been a market leader. This is the cleanest deterioration on the board.

LGEN - fifth consecutive down day, week -6.08%, RSI week -17.7 points, RSI now 35.8. And critically it is doing this on 0.92x RV - unlike almost everything else, the selling here is real.

RIO / GLEN - week +7.33% and +7.36% respectively, RIO RSI +15.9 on the week, GLEN +12.6. Both above all three EMAs and above POC. GLEN's stochastic RSI is pinned at 100 - extended.

TSCO - crossed ABOVE EMA200 (456.53) for the first time, closing at 456.94 which was the exact high of the day. ADX 36.9. Still below EMA20 and EMA50, so structure remains bearish-below-20/50, but the 200 reclaim matters.

MACD bearish crossovers: AV, WPP, NG all flipped negative. WPP is the notable one - RSI 65.5 and ADX 41.2, so a strong uptrend just lost its momentum confirmation.



SECTOR HEATMAP

MINERS - STRONGEST. ANTO +5.77%, AAL +2.80%, GLEN +2.05%, RIO +2.03%. All four above all three EMAs, all four above POC. Gold at USD 4,608 and copper stabilising is doing the work. This sector moved together and is the highest-conviction long theme on the board. AAL is only 3.8% off its 52-week high, GLEN only 4.0%.

INVESTMENT / SPECIALITY - STRONG. III +2.97%, REL +0.90%, EXPN -0.27% but above all three EMAs, SGE +1.10% with RSI 73.5 and ADX 47.5. SGE is the single strongest trend reading in the universe.

CONSUMER STAPLES - RECOVERING. RKT +3.06%, TSCO +1.86%, ABF +0.98%, ULVR +0.45%, DGE -0.29%. Three of these crossed above EMA20 or EMA200 on Friday. A coordinated bid into defensives.

BANKS - MIXED. LLOY +1.23%, HSBA +1.21%, NWG +0.65%, BARC +0.41%, STAN +0.37%. Every one of them is above EMA50 and EMA200 but below EMA20. LLOY reclaimed EMA50 on Friday. BARC is the weak link with RSI 38.5 and price below POC. The sector is coiled, not trending.

PHARMA - IMPROVING. AZN +1.16% crossed above EMA20, GSK -0.18% above EMA20 and EMA200 but below EMA50, HLN +0.61% above all three. AZN's five-day streak is the driver.

ENERGY - WEAKEST ON THE DAY. SHEL -1.02%, BP -0.98%. Both are still above all three EMAs and above POC, so structure is intact, but Brent's 4.21% drop hit them and SHEL closed on its low at 3405 versus a session high of 3449.

TOBACCO - WORST STRUCTURE. IMB -0.74% RSI 29.5, BATS -0.82% RSI 36.8. Both below all three EMAs, both below POC. IMB is sitting 20 pence off its 52-week low.

UTILITIES - WEAK. NG -1.14% below all three EMAs with a fresh MACD bearish crossover. SSE +0.46% but still below EMA20 and EMA50. Only SSE's POC reclaim offers any positive.



DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS

BULLISH - above EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200
ANTO 3920 (+5.77%) RSI 55.8 MACD bear · -12.4% from 52wH · above POC 3864.79 · RSI +8.3
AAL 4077 (+2.80%) RSI 60.2 MACD bull · -3.8% · above POC 3793.62
GLEN 596.50 (+2.05%) RSI 66.3 MACD bull · -4.0% · above POC 547.25 · StochRSI 100
RIO 7656 (+2.03%) RSI 64.0 MACD bull · -16.0% · above POC 7249.53
SGE 1098 (+1.10%) RSI 73.5 MACD bull · -7.0% · above POC 891.14 · ADX 47.5
ABF 2051 (+0.98%) RSI 52.3 MACD bear · -13.1% · above POC
ADM 3956 (+0.97%) RSI 64.3 MACD bull · -1.2% · above POC
HLN 362.10 (+0.61%) RSI 51.2 MACD bear · -13.0% · above POC
AV 716.60 (+0.34%) RSI 59.0 MACD bear · -3.2% · above POC · MACD just crossed down
WPP 389.10 (+0.28%) RSI 65.5 MACD bear · -5.7% · above POC · ADX 41.2 · MACD just crossed down
EXPN 2958 (-0.27%) RSI 59.7 MACD bull · -25.8% · above POC
DGE 1718.50 (-0.29%) RSI 57.2 MACD bear · -19.8% · above POC
BP 546.80 (-0.98%) RSI 58.6 MACD bull · -10.3% · above POC
SHEL 3405.07 (-1.02%) RSI 60.7 MACD bull · -5.2% · above POC · closed on the low

BULLISH above EMA20 and EMA50, below EMA200
RKT 5150 (+3.06%) RSI 52.9 MACD bear · -20.9% · above POC · RSI +10.0
III 2876 (+2.97%) RSI 61.2 MACD bear · -36.0% · above POC
REL 2610.34 (+0.90%) RSI 53.8 MACD bear · -27.5% · above POC
ULVR 4670 (+0.45%) RSI 52.4 MACD bear · -15.5% · above POC

MIXED - exact structure stated
LLOY 111.10 (+1.23%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 44.1 · above POC · reclaimed EMA50
HSBA 1520.80 (+1.21%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 51.4 · above POC
AZN 12228 (+1.16%) above EMA20, below EMA50 and EMA200 · RSI 49.4 · below POC 12692.98 · ADX 37.2
INF 898.40 (+0.88%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 50.8 · above POC
NWG 682.00 (+0.65%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 46.3 · above POC
STAN 2161 (+0.37%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 48.5 · above POC
RR. 1500 (+0.04%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 52.4 · above POC
BNZL 2754 (-0.07%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 49.8 · above POC
GSK 1917 (-0.18%) above EMA20 and EMA200, below EMA50 · RSI 50.5 · below POC
VOD 117.25 (-0.64%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 50.5 · above POC · just lost EMA20
BAE 2127 (-0.84%) above EMA50 and EMA200, below EMA20 · RSI 51.6 · above POC · just lost EMA20

BEARISH below EMA20 and EMA50, above EMA200
TSCO 456.94 (+1.86%) RSI 43.8 · -12.2% · below POC · ADX 36.9 · reclaimed EMA200
SSE 2396 (+0.46%) RSI 49.2 · -16.2% · above POC · reclaimed POC
BARC 491.00 (+0.41%) RSI 38.5 · -8.8% · below POC 502.73 · StochRSI 7.2
LGEN 284.40 (-0.66%) RSI 35.8 · -10.6% · below POC 290.48 · RV 0.92

BEARISH - below all three EMAs
PRU 1025 (+1.28%) RSI 44.9 · -17.2% · below POC · reports Wednesday
RTO 345.30 (+1.23%) RSI 28.9 · -31.9% · below POC · ADX 38.2 · MACD bullish crossover
LSEG 8614 (+0.84%) RSI 47.7 · -15.0% · below POC · ADX 10.2
CPG 3085 (+0.16%) RSI 40.2 · -17.7% · below POC
IMB 2496.50 (-0.74%) RSI 29.5 · -25.3% · below POC · 52w low 2476
BATS 4127 (-0.82%) RSI 36.8 · -17.5% · below POC
NG 1173 (-1.14%) RSI 41.2 · -17.9% · below POC · MACD bearish crossover



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. ANTOFAGASTA - LONG - NEW
Structural flip on Friday: crossed above EMA20 (3772.75), EMA50 (3787.41) and POC (3864.79) in one session, +5.77%, RSI +8.3 to 55.8. Already above EMA200 at 3506.72. Highest relative volume on the board at 0.96, so this move has actual participation behind it. Gold at a three-month high and copper stabilising is the fundamental driver. MACD has not yet crossed bullish - that is the one missing confirmation.
Entry: 3870 pullback into POC / EMA cluster · Stop: 3750 (below EMA20, 0.67 ATR) · T1: 4050 · T2: 4259 · R:R: 1.5 to T1, 3.2 to T2
Confluence: POC 3864.79, EMA20 3772.75, EMA50 3787.41 and classic S1 3785.35 all stack within 20 points. Cam S4 3789.67 reinforces. ATR 179.

2. RIO TINTO - LONG - CONTINUING
Above all three EMAs, week +7.33%, RSI 64.0 and +15.9 on the week, MACD bullish, well above POC at 7249.53. Structure is clean and the gold and iron-ore backdrop supports it. Caveat: RV only 0.32 and StochRSI 91.6 - extended and thin, so this is a pullback buy, not a chase.
Entry: 7550 into classic S1 7548.20 · Stop: 7370 (below S3 7374.31) · T1: 7896 · T2: 8100 · R:R: 1.9 to T1, 3.1 to T2
Confluence: S1 7548.20 and Cam S4 7560.36 within 12 points. ATR 198.54, so a 180-point stop is 0.9 ATR - tight; consider 7340 if you want daily-close protection.

3. ASTRAZENECA - LONG - NEW
Crossed above EMA20 (12112.77) on Friday, fifth straight up day, week +5.93%, RSI week +14.5. MACD bullish. Sitting 22.3% below the 52-week high of 15730 and only 1704 points above the 52-week low - this is a base-recovery trade, not a trend trade. Still below EMA50 (12659.59), EMA200 (13208.59) and POC (12692.98), so the burden of proof is on the bulls. ADX 37.2 confirms the down-move had force, which makes the reclaim meaningful. StochRSI 100 - short-term extended.
Entry: 12250 on a break of Friday's 12242 high · Stop: 11900 (below Friday's 11926 low, 0.94 ATR) · T1: 12654 · T2: 13208 · R:R: 1.2 to T1, 2.7 to T2
Confluence: T1 at classic R3 12654 sits right on EMA50 12659.59 and just under POC 12692.98 - that zone is the real test. T2 is EMA200.

4. SAGE GROUP - LONG - CONTINUING
The strongest trend in the universe: ADX 47.5, above all three EMAs, four-day up streak, RSI 73.5, price 23% above its POC of 891.14. The trend is not the problem - the entry is. RSI 73.5 and StochRSI 90.3 mean chasing here is poor risk. Wait for the pullback.
Entry: 1060 on a pullback · Stop: 1015 (below EMA20 1016.56) · T1: 1138 · T2: 1181 (52-week high) · R:R: 1.7 to T1, 2.7 to T2
Confluence: EMA20 1016.56 is 8% below spot - the pullback may not come. Classic S3 1051.33 is the nearer shelf. If it never pulls back, skip it rather than paying up.

5. LEGAL AND GENERAL - SHORT - CONTINUING
The only clean bearish setup with real volume behind it. Below EMA20 (298.41) and EMA50 (292.85), below POC (290.48), five-day down streak, week -6.08%, RSI 35.8 and -17.7 on the week, StochRSI at 0. Crucially RV is 0.92 versus a market averaging under 0.4 - the distribution here is genuine, not summer drift. EMA200 at 271.23 is the structural floor.
Entry: 283.20 on a break of Friday's 283.40 low · Stop: 289.70 (above Friday's 289.59 high) · T1: 275.81 · T2: 271.23 (EMA200) · R:R: 1.1 to T1, 1.8 to T2
Confluence: Classic S3 275.81 is T1; EMA200 271.23 is where I would cover in full. ATR 6.69 so the 6.5-point stop is one full ATR. RSI 35.8 is approaching oversold - this is a swing short with a defined floor, not a trend short.



INTRADAY SETUPS

1. LLOYDS - PIVOT BOUNCE - LONG
Reclaimed EMA50 (111.08) on Friday closing at 111.10, +1.23%. Above EMA200 at 101.03, below EMA20 at 113.19. Pivot 110.75 with POC just beneath at 109.53. RSI 44.1 and StochRSI 21 - room to run without being oversold. RV 0.44, so keep size modest.
Entry: 110.90 at Cam S1 · Stop: 109.90 (Cam S4 109.92, POC 109.53) · T1: 111.99 (classic R1) · T2: 112.89 (classic R2) · R:R: 1.1 to T1, 2.0 to T2
Why: pivot 110.75, EMA50 111.08 and POC 109.53 form a tight support shelf. A loss of 109.50 invalidates the EMA50 reclaim entirely - that is a clean line in the sand.

2. GLENCORE - CAMARILLA BREAKOUT - LONG
Above all three EMAs, RSI 66.3, week +7.36%, only 4.0% below the 52-week high of 621.50. Cam range is extremely tight (R3 599.28 to S3 593.72, just 5.6 points on a 17.24 ATR) which is textbook compression ahead of expansion.
Entry: 602.20 on a break above Cam R4 602.06 · Stop: 596.00 · T1: 606.50 (classic R2) · T2: 611.60 (classic R3) · R:R: 0.7 to T1, 1.5 to T2
Why: Camarilla width of 5.6 points against an ATR of 17.24 means the day's expected range is three times the Camarilla band - breakout conditions. StochRSI at 100 is the risk; if it fails at R4, stand aside rather than reversing.

3. SHELL - CAMARILLA BREAKDOWN - SHORT
Closed at 3405.07 which was effectively the session low of 3405, down 1.02%, after Brent fell 4.21%. Still above all three EMAs so this is a counter-structure intraday fade, not a trend short - manage it tightly. RV 0.67, the third-highest on the board.
Entry: 3392.50 on a break below Cam S3 3392.97 · Stop: 3409.10 (Cam R1) · T1: 3380.87 (Cam S4) · T2: 3346.38 (classic S3) · R:R: 0.7 to T1, 2.8 to T2
Why: closing on the low after an oil collapse is continuation behaviour. EMA20 at 3327.28 is the structural backstop - do not hold below it expecting more. If Brent stabilises overnight this setup is void.

4. BAE SYSTEMS - CAMARILLA BREAKDOWN - SHORT
Freshest breakdown on the board: crossed below EMA20 (2143.97) on Friday, fifth consecutive down day, week -5.09%, RSI week -17.6 points, StochRSI at 0. Still above EMA50 2059.31 and EMA200 1974.69, so this is a pullback short within an intact longer trend.
Entry: 2116.50 on a break below Cam S4 2117.10 · Stop: 2126.50 (pivot 2126.33) · T1: 2108.33 (classic S2) · T2: 2099.67 (classic S3) · R:R: 0.8 to T1, 1.7 to T2
Why: Friday's range was only 18 points against an ATR of 50.26 - a heavily compressed inside day after five red sessions. StochRSI at 0 warns a bounce is possible, so take T1 off and trail.

5. TESCO - EMA200 RECLAIM - LONG
Crossed above EMA200 (456.53) on Friday, closing at 456.94 which was the exact session high - the strongest possible close. +1.86%, ADX 36.9. Still below EMA20 462.88 and EMA50 466.82 and below POC 462.88, so it needs follow-through to matter. RV 0.28 is the caution flag.
Entry: 457.90 on a break above Cam R1 457.80 · Stop: 453.80 (below pivot 453.83) · T1: 460.05 (classic R1) · T2: 463.17 (classic R2, POC 462.88) · R:R: 0.5 to T1, 1.3 to T2
Why: POC at 462.88 and EMA20 at 463.37 sit together - that is the real magnet and the real resistance. A close above 463 opens EMA50 at 466.82. Below 453.83 the EMA200 reclaim failed.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

ANTO 3920
Cam: S4 3789.67 · S3 3854.83 · S1 3898.28 || R1 3941.72 · R3 3985.17 · R4 4050.33
Classic: S3 3548.38 · S2 3650.71 · S1 3785.35 · P 3887.68 · R1 4022.32 · R2 4124.65 · R3 4259.29
EMAs: 20 3772.75 · 50 3787.41 · 200 3506.72 · POC 3864.79 · ATR 179.00
Prev H/L: 3990.00 / 3753.03 · 52w H/L: 4475 / 2115

RIO 7656
Cam: S4 7560.36 · S3 7608.18 · S1 7640.06 || R1 7671.94 · R3 7703.82 · R4 7751.64
Classic: S3 7374.31 · S2 7440.41 · S1 7548.20 · P 7614.30 · R1 7722.09 · R2 7788.19 · R3 7895.98
EMAs: 20 7279.20 · 50 7232.04 · 200 6774.09 · POC 7249.53 · ATR 198.54
Prev H/L: 7680.39 / 7506.50 · 52w H/L: 9117 / 4511.44

AZN 12228
Cam: S4 12054.20 · S3 12141.10 · S1 12199.03 || R1 12256.97 · R3 12314.90 · R4 12401.80
Classic: S3 11706 · S2 11816 · S1 12022 · P 12132 · R1 12338 · R2 12448 · R3 12654
EMAs: 20 12112.77 · 50 12659.59 · 200 13208.59 · POC 12692.98 · ATR 373.67
Prev H/L: 12242 / 11926 · 52w H/L: 15730 / 10524

SHEL 3405.07
Cam: S4 3380.87 · S3 3392.97 · S1 3401.04 || R1 3409.10 · R3 3417.17 · R4 3429.27
Classic: S3 3346.38 · S2 3375.69 · S1 3390.38 · P 3419.69 · R1 3434.38 · R2 3463.69 · R3 3478.38
EMAs: 20 3327.28 · 50 3248.32 · 200 3080.15 · POC 3158.24 · ATR 61.61
Prev H/L: 3449.00 / 3405.00 · 52w H/L: 3591.50 / 2553.77

LGEN 284.40
Cam: S4 281.00 · S3 282.70 · S1 283.83 || R1 284.97 · R3 286.10 · R4 287.80
Classic: S3 275.81 · S2 279.61 · S1 282.00 · P 285.80 · R1 288.19 · R2 291.99 · R3 294.38
EMAs: 20 298.41 · 50 292.85 · 200 271.23 · POC 290.48 · ATR 6.69
Prev H/L: 289.59 / 283.40 · 52w H/L: 318.10 / 229.10



BEARISH WARNINGS

FRESH BREAKDOWNS - HIGHEST PRIORITY

BAE 2127 - crossed BELOW EMA20 (2143.97) Friday. Five-day down streak, week -5.09%, RSI week -17.6, StochRSI 0. ADX 32.8 means the move has force. Next support EMA50 2059.31, a further 3.2% down. This was a leadership name; leadership names breaking are worth respecting.

VOD 117.25 - crossed BELOW EMA20 (117.89) Friday, -0.64%. StochRSI 0, RSI 50.5. Still above EMA50 115.05 and EMA200 107.08. Minor for now, but it is a fresh loss of the near-term line.

NG 1173 - MACD bearish crossover on Friday, -1.14%, below all three EMAs and below POC 1214.33. Closed near the session low of 1172.33. RV 0.56 is above the market average. Classic S3 at 1147.22 is the next real shelf.

AV 716.60 and WPP 389.10 - both printed MACD bearish crossovers while still above all three EMAs. WPP is the more notable: ADX 41.2 and RSI 65.5 means a powerful uptrend just lost its momentum confirmation. Neither is a short yet. Both are reasons to tighten longs.

CONTINUING STRUCTURAL WEAKNESS

IMB 2496.50 - below all three EMAs, RSI 29.5, 25.3% off the 52-week high, and just 20 pence above its 52-week low of 2476. RV 0.17 - the lowest on the board. A break of 2476 opens uncharted downside, but the paper-thin volume means any bounce could be violent. Avoid shorting into a 52-week low on 0.17x volume.

BATS 4127 - below all three EMAs, RSI 36.8, below POC 4482.84. EMA200 at 4324.80 is now overhead resistance. Tobacco as a pair is broken.

RTO 345.30 - RSI 28.9, the most oversold name tracked, 31.9% below its 52-week high, below all three EMAs with EMA50 at 400.43 far overhead. But MACD just crossed BULLISH and it closed +1.23%. Do not chase this short - it is stretched and turning.

BARC 491.00 - the weak bank. RSI 38.5, StochRSI 7.2, below EMA20 509.23, below EMA50 502.62 and below POC 502.73. While LLOY, HSBA, NWG and STAN all hold their EMA50, BARC has lost it. A relative-weakness short against a LLOY long is the pairs expression.

CPG 3085 - below all three EMAs, RSI 40.2, 17.7% off the high, below POC 3221. EMA20 3182 and EMA50 3179 sit almost on top of each other, which makes 3180 the single level to watch for any reversal.



EVENTS CALENDAR - WEEK COMMENCING 24 AUGUST 2026

UK CORPORATE
Mon 24 Aug - Goodwin, Full Year Results
Tue 25 Aug - Chesnara, Half Year Results
Wed 26 Aug - PRUDENTIAL, Half Year Results - a tracked name and the key UK event of the week. PRU is below all three EMAs with RSI 44.9 and sits 17.2% below its 52-week high. Consensus looks for new business profit growth around 10-11%. Hong Kong regulatory scrutiny of Mainland-visitor sales is the swing factor. Do not hold a PRU position into Wednesday morning without accepting gap risk. ATR 27.39 understates event-day risk considerably.
Wed 26 Aug - Hochschild Mining, Half Year Results (gold read-across to ANTO, AAL, GLEN, RIO)
Thu 27 Aug - PPHE Hotel Group, Half Year Results
Fri 28 Aug - no FTSE 350 reporters

MACRO - DRIVES THE INDEX MORE THAN ANY SINGLE UK NAME
Tue 25 Aug - US Conference Board consumer confidence, July new home sales
Wed 26 Aug - US durable goods orders
Wed 26 Aug after the US close - NVIDIA Q2 results - the single largest cross-asset risk of the week. A miss hits global risk appetite and would drag the FTSE despite zero direct exposure.
Thu 27 Aug - US Q2 GDP second estimate
Thu 27 to Sat 29 Aug - Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote expected to signal policy direction into year-end. Dollar-sensitive: a dovish tone supports gold and therefore the miners, which are currently the FTSE's strongest sector.
Fri 28 Aug - US July PCE - headline expected +0.1% month on month, core +0.2%, leaving core at 3.3% year on year.
Also reporting: Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, CrowdStrike, Salesforce.

NOTE: Monday 31 August is the UK Summer Bank Holiday - the London market is closed. This is a full five-day trading week, but expect liquidity to thin further into Friday's close as the long weekend approaches. Given relative volume is already below 0.5x across nearly the entire board, position sizing should be reduced all week.



METHODOLOGY AND DATA NOTES

Data is the Friday 21 August 2026 close, merged from two scanner entries covering 40 FTSE 100 constituents, selected by constituent membership rather than timestamp (the feed carries mislabelled US and NASDAQ-100 entries at later timestamps which were correctly excluded). CPG was received on a pounds scale and all its price fields were multiplied by 100 to align with the GBX quote. All 40 EMA classifications were programmatically re-verified against close versus EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 - zero mismatches. All levels are exact scanner values with no rounding tolerance applied.

Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Thursday 20 August 2026
Data: close of Wednesday 19 August 2026 (latest scanner snapshot) · UKX: 10,743.35 (+15.31, +0.14%) · Futures: 10,482.3 (front contract, see roll note)



MARKET OVERVIEW

The levels in this report are derived from Wednesday's close, high and low. They are valid for today's session but they are NOT live Thursday prices.

Futures / contract-roll note: the front FTSE future prints 10,482.3 against a cash close of 10,743.35 — roughly 261 points below spot. This is NOT a bearish gap. The front contract has rolled to a further-dated quarterly and trades at a dividend discount to spot. Cross-checked against the cash close and the London session tone, direction into today is neutral to mildly firm. Do not read that print as a 2.4% gap down.

Macro drivers:
UK July CPI accelerated to 2.9% from 2.6% (released 19 Aug) — hawkish, pushes back BoE easing expectations and firms gilt yields. That is precisely what is hurting the domestic banks and utilities below.
Brent crude 91.86 USD (+0.92% on 19 Aug), +2.96% on the month and +37% year on year. The war in Iran keeps a supply-risk premium in the barrel. This was the dominant driver of Wednesday's tape.
FOMC minutes fall in the 17-21 Aug window. UK July retail sales and flash S&P Global UK PMIs land Friday 21 Aug — the week's real UK event risk.

Breadth read: the index closed almost flat, but that masks a violent internal rotation. All four big miners rose 3.6-5.0% while every single UK-domestic bank fell and both utilities broke down. Trade the rotation, not the index level.

CONVICTION WARNING: relative volume was thin across the entire universe. All 40 names printed rv below 1.0, with HLN (0.96) the highest and CPG (0.13), INF (0.13), VOD (0.17), IMB (0.20) and AAL (0.22) the thinnest. Even the 5% miner moves came on rv 0.22-0.66. Treat every signal below as lower conviction than the price action implies. Size down, widen stops.



NOTABLE CHANGES (18 Aug to 19 Aug)

1. GLEN +5.02%, RSI +9.6 to 61.5 — biggest single-day move in the universe. Above all three EMAs, above POC.
2. AAL +4.96%, RSI +8.1 to 58.7 — crossed ABOVE EMA20 and posted a MACD BULLISH crossover. Two fresh confirmations on one bar.
3. RIO +3.57%, RSI +8.8 to 56.4 — crossed ABOVE EMA20, ABOVE EMA50 and ABOVE POC on a single bar. The cleanest fresh trend flip on the board.
4. BAE -2.92%, RSI -10.3, MACD BEARISH crossover, 3-day down streak, RSI -15.1 on the week. Closed at 2160 against a low of 2157 — closed on its lows.
5. AV -2.39%, RSI -12.3 — largest RSI drop in the universe, and it happened straight off the 52-week high (740.6 was Wednesday's high). Failed breakout.
6. SSE -1.73% — crossed BELOW EMA20, BELOW EMA50 and BELOW POC in one session. Triple breakdown.
7. NG -2.52%, RSI -9.1 — crossed BELOW EMA20. Utilities broke together; this is the gilt-yield trade.
8. LLOY -1.88% — crossed BELOW EMA50, now a 5-day down streak, RSI -14 on the week. Worst-behaving bank.
9. GSK +1.48% — crossed ABOVE EMA20 and ABOVE EMA200, RSI +12.7 on the week, 3-day up streak.
10. EXPN +1.88% — crossed ABOVE EMA200, week +4.31%.



SECTOR HEATMAP

LEADING
Mining / Resources (+4.4% avg): GLEN +5.02, AAL +4.96, ANTO +4.02, RIO +3.57. All four moved together — a genuine sector-wide bid, not one stock. GLEN, AAL and RIO are all above every EMA and above POC. ANTO is the laggard of the four (still below EMA20 and EMA50, still below POC) and therefore the lowest-quality long of the group.
Energy: BP +0.99, SHEL +0.85. Both BULLISH above all EMAs, both far above POC, both riding 91.86 Brent. SHEL on a 4-day up streak.
Pharma (RECOVERING): AZN +2.23, GSK +1.48, HLN +0.65. AZN put in a MACD bullish crossover and is +10.3 RSI on the week but is still below all three EMAs — recovering, not yet bullish. GSK reclaimed EMA20 and EMA200.

LAGGING
UK Banks (-1.47% avg): LLOY -1.88, STAN -1.82, NWG -1.53, BARC -1.28, HSBA -0.82. Every single one down on a hot CPI print. LLOY lost EMA50, STAN lost EMA20, BARC lost POC. Uniform sector weakness.
Utilities: NG -2.52, SSE -1.73. Both lost EMA20 on the same day.
Tobacco: IMB -1.44, BATS -1.37. Both below all three EMAs, both below POC, RSI 32.0 and 33.2. IMB closed at 2535 against a 52-week low of 2533 — sitting on the floor.
Insurance: AV -2.39, PRU -1.11, LGEN -1.10. ADM +0.87 is the honourable exception — RSI 62.6 and only 1.9% off its 52-week high.

MIXED — Software / Support services: SGE +0.94 (week +6.13%, best FTSE weekly mover, ADX 45), WPP +0.29 (RSI 67.9, above all EMAs, up from a 218.5 low), EXPN +1.88, REL +0.87, RTO -0.05 (worst trend in the index).



DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS

Trend is a strict numeric comparison of close against EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 with no rounding tolerance. Re-checked programmatically across all 40 names: zero mismatches.

BULLISH — above all three EMAs (16 names)
GLEN 578.85 (+5.02%) RSI 61.5 [+9.6] MACD BULL, -6.9% from 52w high, above POC
AAL 4021.0 (+4.96%) RSI 58.7 [+8.1] MACD BULL, -5.1% from 52w high, above POC
RIO 7373.0 (+3.57%) RSI 56.4 [+8.8] MACD BEAR, -19.1% from 52w high, above POC
EXPN 2929.0 (+1.88%) RSI 58.3 [+3.2] MACD BEAR, -26.5% from 52w high, above POC
BP 538.80 (+0.99%) RSI 56.5 MACD BEAR, -11.6% from 52w high, above POC
SGE 1073.0 (+0.94%) RSI 70.5 OVERBOUGHT, MACD BULL, -9.1% from 52w high, above POC
ADM 3928.0 (+0.87%) RSI 62.6 MACD BULL, -1.9% from 52w high, above POC
SHEL 3416.84 (+0.85%) RSI 63.5 MACD BEAR, -4.9% from 52w high, above POC
III 2819.0 (+0.61%) RSI 57.2 MACD BEAR, above 20/50 but BELOW EMA200, -37.3% from 52w high
WPP 392.52 (+0.29%) RSI 67.9 MACD BULL, -4.9% from 52w high, above POC
BNZL 2773.0 (-0.04%) RSI 53.2 MACD BEAR, -3.9% from 52w high, above POC
DGE 1685.5 (-0.15%) RSI 53.1 MACD BEAR, -21.3% from 52w high, above POC
VOD 119.50 (-0.17%) RSI 55.7 MACD BEAR, -3.4% from 52w high, above POC
RR. 1519.80 (-1.17%) RSI 56.0 MACD BEAR, -4.2% from 52w high, above POC
AV 719.40 (-2.39%) RSI 61.0 [-12.3] MACD BULL, -2.9% from 52w high, above POC
BAE 2160.0 (-2.92%) RSI 56.1 [-10.3] MACD BEAR, -8.5% from 52w high, above POC

BEARISH (15 names)
AZN 12069.8 (+2.23%) RSI 46.2 [+5.3] MACD BULL — below all three EMAs, below POC, -23.3% from 52w high
HLN 357.90 (+0.65%) RSI 47.1 MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, above POC, -14.0% from 52w high
RKT 5008.0 (+0.36%) RSI 43.2 MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, above POC, -23.1% from 52w high
TSCO 447.00 (+0.20%) RSI 35.2 WEAK, MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -14.1% from 52w high
LSEG 8502.0 (-0.05%) RSI 43.4 MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -16.2% from 52w high
RTO 345.53 (-0.05%) RSI 26.4 OVERSOLD, MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -31.8% from 52w high
PRU 1023.50 (-1.11%) RSI 43.4 MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -17.3% from 52w high
BATS 4090.0 (-1.37%) RSI 33.2 WEAK, MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -18.3% from 52w high
IMB 2535.0 (-1.44%) RSI 32.0 WEAK, MACD BEAR — below all three EMAs, below POC, -24.1% from 52w high
NG 1180.50 (-2.52%) RSI 42.5 [-9.1] MACD BULL — below all three EMAs, below POC, -17.4% from 52w high
ANTO 3698.0 (+4.02%) RSI 47.1 [+6.5] MACD BEAR — below EMA20/EMA50, above EMA200, below POC
CPG 3143.0 (-0.08%) RSI 44.3 MACD BEAR — below EMA20/EMA50, above EMA200, below POC, 5-day down streak
BARC 497.15 (-1.28%) RSI 40.7 MACD BEAR — below EMA20/EMA50, above EMA200, below POC
SSE 2385.0 (-1.73%) RSI 47.2 [-6.6] MACD BULL — below EMA20/EMA50, above EMA200, below POC
LLOY 110.63 (-1.88%) RSI 41.4 [-5.9] MACD BEAR — below EMA20/EMA50, above EMA200, above POC

MIXED (9 names)
GSK 1916.0 (+1.48%) RSI 50.5 — above EMA20, BELOW EMA50, above EMA200, below POC
ULVR 4628.0 (+1.09%) RSI 49.7 — below EMA20, ABOVE EMA50, below EMA200, above POC
REL 2562.0 (+0.87%) RSI 50.2 — below EMA20, ABOVE EMA50, below EMA200, above POC
ABF 2022.0 (+0.30%) RSI 47.4 — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC
INF 889.80 (-0.51%) RSI 47.3 — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC
HSBA 1502.20 (-0.82%) RSI 46.1 — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC
LGEN 297.60 (-1.10%) RSI 47.4 — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC
NWG 682.60 (-1.53%) RSI 46.0 [-5.1] — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC
STAN 2161.0 (-1.82%) RSI 48.3 [-6.3] — below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, above POC

Tally: 16 BULLISH · 15 BEARISH · 9 MIXED. Broadly balanced, but the bulls cluster in resources and energy while the bears cluster in tobacco, utilities and domestic-facing services.



TOP SWING SETUPS

1. RIO — LONG — NEW (triggered 19 Aug) — highest quality
Crossed above EMA20 (7210.3), above EMA50 (7202.4) and above POC (7271.5) on a single +3.57% bar, RSI +8.8. Now BULLISH above all three EMAs.
Entry: 7373 continuation, or 7280-7310 on a pullback · Stop: 7148 · T1: 7715 · T2: 7960 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.6 (2.4 / 3.9 on the pullback entry)
Confluence: POC 7271.5 sits almost exactly on the classic pivot 7306, just above EMA20/EMA50 at 7202-7210 — a stacked support shelf at 7200-7310. ADX 19.9 means the trend is only just waking up, which is what you want at the start of a move.
Caveat: MACD still BEAR and rv 0.27 is very thin. Wait for a hold above 7300 rather than chasing.

2. AAL — LONG — NEW (triggered 19 Aug)
+4.96%, crossed above EMA20 (3862.1), MACD BULLISH crossover, RSI +8.1 to 58.7. BULLISH above all three EMAs and only 5.1% from its 52-week high at 4239 — the strongest relative position of any miner.
Entry: 4021, or 3930 on a pullback to EMA9 · Stop: 3855 · T1: 4239 · T2: 4400 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.3
Confluence: POC 3797.9 sits just under EMA20 3862 — the 3800-3860 band is the line in the sand. Above it, the 52-week high is the magnet.
Caveat: rv 0.22, the thinnest volume of any big mover on the day.

3. GLEN — LONG — CONTINUING
Biggest mover (+5.02%) with the biggest RSI surge (+9.6 to 61.5). BULLISH above all EMAs, above POC 547.2, week +2.8%.
Entry: 578.85, or 566-571 on a pullback · Stop: 563.1 · T1: 600 · T2: 621.50 · R:R: 1.3 / 3.7
Confluence: EMA20 552.5, EMA50 546.2 and POC 547.2 are all stacked at 546-553 — a very tight triple-support shelf. Structure is excellent.
Note: GLEN goes ex-dividend Thursday 27 August. The ex-div drop will show as a gap, not a signal — factor it into any hold past that date.

4. SHEL — LONG on breakout — CONTINUING
4-day up streak, RSI 63.5, BULLISH above all EMAs, ADX 34.4 (established trend), far above POC 3149.3. Critically, Wednesday's range was only 35p against an ATR of 63.4 — the tightest coil in the universe. Coils inside a strong trend usually resolve in the trend direction.
Entry: 3426 buy stop above Wednesday's high · Stop: 3345 · T1: 3520 · T2: 3591.50 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.0
Confluence: Brent at 91.86 with an Iran risk premium is the fundamental fuel. EMA20 3306 is deep support.
Caveat: MACD is BEAR despite the up-streak — momentum is flattening even as price grinds higher. Breakout or nothing; do not buy the middle of the range.

5. IMB — SHORT on breakdown — CONTINUING
BEARISH below all three EMAs, below POC 2768.1, RSI 32.0, and closed at 2535 against a 52-week low of 2533. Sitting directly on the floor with no support beneath.
Entry: 2530 sell stop below the 52-week low · Stop: 2596 · T1: 2440 · T2: 2360 · R:R: 1.4 / 2.6
Confluence: EMA9 at 2618 is 3.3% overhead and falling; the whole EMA stack (2683 / 2745 / 2883) is above price. Nothing there to buy it back.
Caveat: rv 0.20. Fifty-two week lows on thin volume bear-trap easily — require the break to actually trade through, do not anticipate.



INTRADAY SETUPS FOR TODAY

All Camarilla and classic pivot levels are computed from Wednesday's high, low and close and are therefore valid for today's session.

1. RIO — CAMARILLA LONG (pivot bounce) — best confluence on the board
Direction: LONG · Entry: 7304 · Stop: 7235 · T1: 7396 · T2: 7442 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Why: cam S3 (7304.25) and the classic pivot (7306.33) sit within two points of each other, with POC (7271.5) just below — three independent methods pointing at the same shelf, on a stock that just triple-crossed higher. Buy the first test.

2. AAL — CAMARILLA LONG (pivot bounce)
Direction: LONG · Entry: 3965 · Stop: 3910 · T1: 4040 · T2: 4077 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Why: cam S3 3965.45 sits right on the classic pivot 3955.67. Fresh MACD bull cross plus an EMA20 reclaim, and only 5% from the 52-week high. Momentum leader with a well-defined pullback zone.

3. BAE — CAMARILLA SHORT (range fade) — best bear-side intraday
Direction: SHORT · Entry: 2182 · Stop: 2205 · T1: 2153 · T2: 2138 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Why: cam R3 (2182.28) sits within three points of the classic pivot (2185) — a hard ceiling. BAE closed at 2160 against a low of 2157, i.e. on its lows, after a -2.92% day, a MACD bearish crossover and a -10.3 RSI drop. Any morning bounce into 2182-2185 is a gift.
Note: the stock is still above all three EMAs (EMA20 2145., so this is a fade, not a trend short. Respect T2 and take the money.

4. GLEN — CAMARILLA LONG (pivot bounce)
Direction: LONG · Entry: 571 · Stop: 563 · T1: 581.5 · T2: 586.7 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Why: cam S3 570.99 and classic pivot 569.75 are a point apart, with EMA9 at 560.6 backstopping just under the stop. Strongest momentum name in the index, and it closed 0.65p off its high — no upper-wick rejection.

5. BATS — CAMARILLA SHORT (trend continuation)
Direction: SHORT · Entry: 4115 · Stop: 4140 · T1: 4082 · T2: 4065 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.0
Why: cam R3 (4115.03) and the classic pivot (4115.00) are identical to two decimal places — the sharpest single level on the board. BATS is BEARISH below all three EMAs, below POC 4501, RSI 33.2, and closed at 4090 against a low of 4082. This is shorting into a pivot ceiling with the trend, not against it.

Risk note for all five: rv was under 0.7 on every name. Consider half size, or widen stops by 0.25x ATR and reduce position accordingly.



KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

RIO — close 7373.00
Cam: S4 7235.50 · S3 7304.25 · S1 7350.08 || R1 7395.92 · R3 7441.75 · R4 7510.50
Classic: S3 6964.67 · S2 7056.33 · S1 7214.67 · Pivot 7306.33 · R1 7464.67 · R2 7556.33 · R3 7714.67
EMAs: 9 7257.11 · 20 7210.31 · 50 7202.42 · 200 6758.40
POC 7271.47 · Prev H/L 7398 / 7148 · 52w H/L 9117 / 4484 · ATR 194.49 · ADX 19.9 · rv 0.27

AAL — close 4021.00
Cam: S4 3909.90 · S3 3965.45 · S1 4002.48 || R1 4039.52 · R3 4076.55 · R4 4132.10
Classic: S3 3685.33 · S2 3753.67 · S1 3887.33 · Pivot 3955.67 · R1 4089.33 · R2 4157.67 · R3 4291.33
EMAs: 9 3927.59 · 20 3862.11 · 50 3785.22 · 200 3461.80
POC 3797.90 · Prev H/L 4024 / 3822 · 52w H/L 4239 / 2127 · ATR 139.41 · ADX 19.7 · rv 0.22

GLEN — close 578.85
Cam: S4 563.12 · S3 570.99 · S1 576.23 || R1 581.47 · R3 586.72 · R4 594.58
Classic: S3 531.40 · S2 541.15 · S1 560.00 · Pivot 569.75 · R1 588.60 · R2 598.35 · R3 617.20
EMAs: 9 560.64 · 20 552.50 · 50 546.22 · 200 500.70
POC 547.23 · Prev H/L 579.50 / 550.90 · 52w H/L 621.50 / 281.93 · ATR 17.37 · ADX 18.5 · rv 0.66

SHEL — close 3416.84
Cam: S4 3397.59 · S3 3407.22 · S1 3413.63 || R1 3420.05 · R3 3426.47 · R4 3436.09
Classic: S3 3361.39 · S2 3375.95 · S1 3396.39 · Pivot 3410.95 · R1 3431.39 · R2 3445.95 · R3 3466.39
EMAs: 9 3347.25 · 20 3306.02 · 50 3233.71 · 200 3073.40
POC 3149.28 · Prev H/L 3425.50 / 3390.50 · 52w H/L 3591.50 / 2553.77 · ATR 63.39 · ADX 34.4 · rv 0.62

BAE — close 2160.00
Cam: S4 2115.45 · S3 2137.73 · S1 2152.58 || R1 2167.43 · R3 2182.28 · R4 2204.55
Classic: S3 2051.00 · S2 2104.00 · S1 2132.00 · Pivot 2185.00 · R1 2213.00 · R2 2266.00 · R3 2294.00
EMAs: 9 2205.40 · 20 2145.79 · 50 2052.87 · 200 1971.40
POC 1964.22 · Prev H/L 2238 / 2157 · 52w H/L 2360 / 1588 · ATR 53.05 · ADX 37.0 · rv 0.30



BEARISH WARNINGS

Fresh breakdowns first (triggered 19 Aug)

1. SSE — TRIPLE BREAKDOWN. Crossed below EMA20 (2400., below EMA50 (2412. and below POC (2390. in one -1.73% session, RSI -6.6. ADX 9.9 means there is no trend to lean on. Only EMA200 at 2342.6 is underneath — that is the last line of defence. Lose it and the structure is fully bearish.
2. NG — lost EMA20 (1200.3), RSI -9.1, -2.52%. Below all three EMAs, below POC 1214.7. Utilities are being sold on the CPI print and firmer gilt yields — a macro trade, and the macro is not turning before Friday.
3. LLOY — lost EMA50 (111.1), 5-day down streak, RSI -14 on the week. Below 20/50 with only EMA200 (100. below. Worst-behaving bank in a sector where every name fell.
4. STAN — lost EMA20 (2187.9), RSI -6.3, 2-day down streak, RSI -10.2 on the week. Still above EMA50/200, but EMA50 at 2115 is the next test.
5. BARC — lost POC (500.16), 3-day down streak, RSI -12.1 on the week. Below EMA20/EMA50. The POC loss is the tell.
6. PRU — lost POC (1027.9). Below all three EMAs, which are stacked overhead at 1044 / 1051 / 1053, all within 1% of price. RSI 43.4 with nothing supportive underneath.

Deteriorating momentum — no EMA break yet, but the internals cracked

7. BAE — MACD bearish crossover, RSI -10.3 on the day and -15.1 on the week, 3-day down streak, closed on its lows. Still BULLISH above all EMAs, but EMA9 (2205.4) is now ABOVE price, which is the first crack. Watch EMA20 at 2145.79 — a close below it turns this from a pullback into a breakdown.
8. AV — RSI -12.3, the largest drop in the universe, straight off the 52-week high. Wednesday's high (740.6) IS the 52-week high and it closed -2.39% at 719.4. Textbook failed breakout. Needs to hold 705 (EMA9 717.8, cam S4 705..
9. RR. — MACD bearish crossover, RSI -3.5, 2-day down streak. Above all EMAs still, but momentum has rolled over.

Already broken — avoid the falling knife

10. RTO — RSI 26.4 OVERSOLD, below all three EMAs, 5-day down streak, 31.8% below its 52-week high, below POC 405.2. The worst structural trend in the index. Oversold is not a buy signal in a downtrend this developed — EMA9 (354.5) is above price and the stack (373 / 405 / 431) is a wall.
11. IMB — at 52-week lows (2535 vs 2533), RSI 32.0, below everything. See the short setup above.
12. BATS — RSI 33.2, below all EMAs, below POC 4501, 18.3% off the high. Tobacco is the weakest sector on the board.
13. TSCO — RSI 35.2, below all three EMAs, below POC 461.9. Quietly the weakest defensive; +0.20% on the day is noise inside a downtrend.
14. LSEG — below all three EMAs, below POC 8687.9, ADX 10.8. Directionless and drifting lower. Nothing to trade until it reclaims EMA20 at 8663.



EVENTS CALENDAR

Thursday 20 August (today)
Light UK data diary. US initial jobless claims is the main international print.
August ex-dividend dates fall on Thursdays this month. LGEN, BT.A and NWG are among the FTSE 100 names going ex-div during August — check your specific holdings against the ex-div calendar before assuming a gap is directional.

Friday 21 August — the week's key UK event risk
UK July retail sales. Context: retail sales volumes rose 0.6% in the three months to June versus the prior three months, and +2.8% year on year.
Flash S&P Global UK PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite). Services PMI recovered to 52.1 in July from 48.8 in June. A second consecutive expansionary print would firm up the no-early-BoE-cut trade and keep the pressure on banks and utilities.
Both land pre-open or mid-morning. If you are holding rate-sensitive names into Friday, size accordingly.

This week (17-21 August)
FOMC minutes fall in the window — watch the read-across to gilt yields.
UK July CPI already printed at 2.9%, up from 2.6%, released 19 August. This is the dominant driver of the bank and utility weakness above and it is not going away before Friday's data.

Thursday 27 August
GLEN ex-dividend, alongside AUTO, CRDA, GAW and ALW. Relevant to the GLEN swing long above.

Ongoing and unscheduled
The war in Iran is the live wire under Brent at 91.86 USD, up 37% year on year. Any escalation or de-escalation headline is a same-day repricing event for SHEL and BP, and via the risk-premium channel for the whole miners complex. This is the single biggest unscheduled risk to every long above.



VERIFICATION LOG

Scanner entries examined for 2026-08-19: four. Two ftse_scanner entries at 20:11:01 UTC verified 20/20 FTSE constituents each and were merged into a 40-name universe. One ftse_scanner entry at 21:32:00 was 0/20 FTSE — it carried BKNG, PANW, MU, LRCX, KLAC, ADI, REGN and SNPS — and was discarded under the crossed-feed rule, as was the dow_scanner entry.
Pence-scale guard applied to CPG, which was quoted at 31.43 in pounds. All its price fields were multiplied by 100 to give 3143.0. No other constituent tripped the test — VOD at 119.50 and LLOY at 110.63 are correctly above 100 in pence and were left alone.
EMA classification re-checked programmatically for all 40 names: zero mismatches. Every trend label is a strict numeric comparison of close against EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200 with no rounding tolerance.
The futures figure was sourced and cross-checked against the cash close and the news tone before direction was written. The 261-point discount was identified as a contract-roll and dividend effect, not a directional gap.



Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Wednesday 19 August 2026
Data: close Tue 18 Aug 2026 (latest scanner snapshot, 40 FTSE names) | UKX close: 10,720.30 (-0.28%) | Futures: 10,482 (see roll note)



1. MARKET OVERVIEW

The FTSE 100 closed at 10,720.30 on Tuesday, down 0.28%, a sixth consecutive down session and the lowest close in over three weeks.

Futures: the UK 100 future is quoted around 10,482 (opened 10,493.6, range 10,445.8-10,507.7) per Investing.com. CONTRACT-ROLL NOTE: that is roughly 238 points BELOW cash, which is a dividend-discount / far-dated-contract effect, NOT a 2.2% directional gap down. Cross-checked against the cash close and the news tone, the setup into today is NEUTRAL-to-CAUTIOUS, not a crash open.

Macro drivers:
Brent crude settled +2.7% at $90.87 after Iran and the US ruled out extending the June memorandum of understanding. Energy was the one thing holding the index up on Tuesday - BP and Shell did the heavy lifting while precious-metals miners sagged.
UK gilts remain the pressure point: 10-year at 5.08%, 30-year at 5.83%, both near multi-year highs.
TODAY 07:00 - ONS July CPI is the session's main event. Reported at 2.9% y/y, up from 2.6% in June. A hotter print pushes BoE cut expectations further out, which is negative for banks' rate-cut trade, housebuilders and consumer names, and supportive of the dollar-earner defensives.

Structural read: this is a rotation tape, not a broad sell-off. Energy, pharma, utilities and data/media were up on Tuesday; banks and miners were uniformly down. Nothing about that is random - it is the gilt-yield and Antofagasta stories doing the work.



2. NOTABLE CHANGES (day over day)

NWG - RSI dropped 8.3 pts to 51.1, crossed BELOW EMA20, -2.23% on the day, 2-day down streak. Biggest single RSI deterioration in the universe.

NG - RSI surged 8.3 pts to 51.6, crossed ABOVE EMA20, +1.81%. The mirror image of NWG.

AAL - crossed BELOW EMA20 AND MACD bearish crossover on the same day, RSI -6.2, -2.47%, week -5.99%. Double signal, and RV only 0.32 so the move happened on thin volume - the break is real but under-confirmed.

BARC - crossed BELOW EMA50, RSI -6.6 to 43.9, -2.29%. Now below both EMA20 and EMA50.

BP - crossed ABOVE EMA20 AND EMA50 in one session, +2.68%, RSI +5.8 to 54.4, RV 1.21 - the only genuinely heavy-volume bullish cross on the board. Cleanest new signal of the day.

REL - crossed ABOVE EMA50 and ABOVE POC, +2.83% (biggest daily gain), RSI +5.7. Caveat: RV 0.70, thin.

LLOY - crossed BELOW EMA20, RSI -6.5, 4-day down streak.

ANTO - week -11.85%, weekly RSI -19.8 pts. Worst mover in the entire feed after the copper guidance cut (2026 output now 625-655kt vs 650-700kt prior, Los Pelambres storm shutdown). This is what dragged the whole mining complex.



3. SECTOR HEATMAP

ENERGY +2.22% avg - BP +2.68, SHEL +1.76. Brent above $91. Both BULLISH above all EMAs. Strongest sector, and moving together.

PHARMA / HEALTH +1.88% avg - AZN +2.13, GSK +1.97, HLN +1.54. All three still BEARISH below all EMAs - this is a bounce off deeply oversold, not a trend change. AZN RSI +6.0, GSK RSI +5.4.

UTILITIES +1.47% avg - NG +1.81, SSE +1.13. Both crossed an EMA higher. Classic defensive bid on a hot-inflation day.

TECH / MEDIA / DATA +1.22% avg - REL +2.83, EXPN +2.72, WPP +1.64, SGE +1.48, III +0.50, LSEG +0.33, INF -0.95. Broad but INF is the odd one out with a fresh EMA20 break plus MACD bear cross.

CONSUMER STAPLES ~0.00% avg - ULVR +1.45, ABF +0.65, IMB +0.16, BATS +0.14, CPG -0.35, TSCO -0.38, RKT -0.72, DGE -0.91. Directionless. TSCO RSI 34.4, IMB 34.5, BATS 35.5 - three names in oversold territory that are not bouncing.

INDUSTRIALS / DEFENCE -0.45% avg - BNZL +0.80, RTO -0.46, BAE -0.49, RR. -1.66. Profit-taking in the winners, BAE and RR. both 2-day down streaks off high RSI.

MINERS -1.18% avg - RIO -0.10, GLEN -0.47, ANTO -1.69, AAL -2.47. Antofagasta contagion. Weekly: ANTO -11.85, AAL -5.99, RIO -5.63, GLEN -3.70. All four moved together - this is a sector event, not four stock stories.

BANKS -1.76% avg - HSBA -1.07, STAN -1.52, LLOY -1.70, NWG -2.23, BARC -2.29. Worst sector, and the alignment is total: five out of five down, four of five with a fresh EMA break or a 6+ pt RSI drop. The gilt curve is not helping the rate-cut narrative.



4. DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS

Format: TICKER Close Day% | Trend | RSI (delta) | MACD | %from 52wH | vs POC | RV

REL 2540.00 +2.83 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, below EMA200 | 48.6 (+5.7) | BEAR | -30.1% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.70
EXPN 2875.00 +2.72 | BULLISH above 20/50 (below EMA200) | 55.1 (+4.6) | BEAR | -27.9% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.46
BP 533.50 +2.68 | BULLISH above all | 54.4 (+5. | BEAR | -12.5% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.21
AZN 11806.00 +2.13 | BEARISH below all | 40.9 (+6.0) | BEAR | -24.9% | BELOW POC | RV 0.62
GSK 1888.00 +1.97 | BEARISH below all | 46.4 (+5.4) | BEAR | -17.3% | BELOW POC | RV 0.52
NG 1211.00 +1.81 | MIXED: above EMA20, below EMA50, below EMA200 | 51.6 (+8.3) | BULL | -15.2% | BELOW POC | RV 1.01
SHEL 3388.00 +1.76 | BULLISH above all | 61.4 (+4.1) | BEAR | -5.7% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.77
WPP 391.40 +1.64 | BULLISH above all | 67.6 (+1.6) | BULL | -5.1% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.74
HLN 355.60 +1.54 | BEARISH below all | 44.8 (+5.1) | BEAR | -14.5% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.16
SGE 1063.00 +1.48 | BULLISH above all | 69.3 (+2.3) | BULL | -10.0% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.45
ULVR 4578.00 +1.45 | BEARISH below all | 46.4 (+5.1) | BEAR | -17.1% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.02
SSE 2427.00 +1.13 | BULLISH above all | 53.8 (+3.1) | BULL | -15.1% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.16
AV 737.00 +0.96 | BULLISH above all | 73.3 (+2.9) OVERBOUGHT | BULL | -0.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.81
BNZL 2774.00 +0.80 | BULLISH above all | 53.4 (+4.4) | BEAR | -3.9% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.56
ABF 2016.00 +0.65 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 46.4 (+3.5) | BEAR | -14.5% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.88
III 2802.00 +0.50 | BULLISH above 20/50 (below EMA200) | 55.7 (+1. | BEAR | -37.7% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.79
ADM 3894.00 +0.41 | BULLISH above all | 60.8 (-0.1) | BULL | -2.8% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.62
LSEG 8506.00 +0.33 | BEARISH below all | 43.6 (+1.5) | BEAR | -16.1% | BELOW POC | RV 1.06
IMB 2572.00 +0.16 | BEARISH below all | 34.5 (-0.5) OVERSOLD | BEAR | -23.0% | BELOW POC | RV 0.46
BATS 4147.00 +0.14 | BEARISH below all | 35.5 (0.0) OVERSOLD | BEAR | -17.1% | BELOW POC | RV 0.96
PRU 1035.00 +0.10 | BEARISH below all | 46.2 (-0.4) | BEAR | -16.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.70 5-day up streak
VOD 119.75 +0.08 | BULLISH above all | 56.1 (+0.6) | BEAR | -3.3% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.48
RIO 7119.00 -0.10 | BEARISH below 20/50 (above EMA200) | 47.6 (-0.5) | BEAR | -21.9% | BELOW POC | RV 0.64
CPG 3145.00 -0.35 | BEARISH below 20/50 (above EMA200) | 44.5 (-0.5) | BEAR | -16.1% | BELOW POC | RV 0.75 5-day down streak
LGEN 300.90 -0.36 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 51.3 (-2.2) | BEAR | -5.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.69
TSCO 446.10 -0.38 | BEARISH below all | 34.4 (-1.1) OVERSOLD | BEAR | -14.3% | BELOW POC | RV 0.90
RTO 345.70 -0.46 | BEARISH below all | 26.5 (-0.3) DEEPLY OVERSOLD | BEAR | -31.8% | BELOW POC | RV 0.38 5-day down streak
GLEN 551.20 -0.47 | BULLISH above all | 51.9 (-1. | BULL | -11.3% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.49
BAE 2225.00 -0.49 | BULLISH above all | 66.4 (-2. | BULL | -5.7% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.67
RKT 4990.00 -0.72 | BEARISH below all | 42.0 (-0. | BEAR | -23.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.57 5-day down streak
DGE 1688.00 -0.91 | BULLISH above all | 53.5 (-2.9) | BEAR | -21.2% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.61 MACD bear cross
INF 894.40 -0.95 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 49.0 (-4.6) | BEAR | -10.6% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.63
HSBA 1514.60 -1.07 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 49.1 (-5.2) | BEAR | -8.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.63
STAN 2201.00 -1.52 | BULLISH above all | 54.6 (-7.3) | BEAR | -2.7% | ABOVE POC | RV 1.00
RR. 1537.80 -1.66 | BULLISH above all | 59.5 (-5.4) | BULL | -3.0% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.45
ANTO 3555.00 -1.69 | BEARISH below 20/50 (above EMA200) | 40.6 (-2.5) | BEAR | -20.6% | BELOW POC | RV 0.75
LLOY 112.75 -1.70 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 47.3 (-6.5) | BEAR | -4.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.55
NWG 693.20 -2.23 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 51.1 (-8.3) | BEAR | -4.5% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.50
BARC 503.60 -2.29 | BEARISH below 20/50 (above EMA200) | 43.9 (-6.6) | BEAR | -6.4% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.85
AAL 3831.00 -2.47 | MIXED: below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200 | 50.6 (-6.2) | BEAR | -9.6% | ABOVE POC | RV 0.32

All 40 EMA classifications were programmatically re-verified against exact close-vs-EMA comparisons: zero mismatches.



5. TOP SWING SETUPS

BP - LONG - NEW (triggered Tue)
Entry: 533.50 or pullback 528.50 · Stop: 519.40 · T1: 556.00 · T2: 580.00 · R:R: 1.6 / 3.3
Why: The single cleanest signal on the board. Crossed above EMA20 (525.76) AND EMA50 (522.24) in one session, closed BULLISH above all EMAs, RSI +5.8 to 54.4, and it did it on RV 1.21 - the only bullish EMA cross in the universe backed by above-average volume. Everything else that went up yesterday did it on thin tape.
Confluence: POC 514.72 sits just under EMA200 500.65 and EMA50 522.24 - a stacked support shelf 500-522 beneath the entry. Stop at 519.40 is 1x ATR (14.14) and sits inside that shelf, so it is a proper structural stop, not a round number.
Catalyst: Brent $90.87 and rising on the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Only -12.5% from the 52w high (609.40), so there is real room above.

SHEL - LONG - CONTINUING (3-day up streak)
Entry: 3388.00 · Stop: 3350.00 · T1: 3460.00 · T2: 3591.00 · R:R: 1.9 / 5.3
Why: BULLISH above all EMAs, RSI 61.4 and rising (+4.1), and it is the closest large-cap to its 52w high at only -5.7%. Same oil catalyst as BP but further along the move, so this is a trend-continuation add rather than a fresh entry.
Confluence: POC 3146.62 is far below - price is trading well clear of the 60-day value area, which is what you want in a trend. Stop 3350 sits below Tuesday's low (3355.50) and above EMA20 (3294.35). T1 3460 is classic R3 (3458.50); T2 is the 52w high itself.
Caveat: RV 0.77 - thinner than BP. Size accordingly.

REL - LONG - NEW (mean-reversion, speculative)
Entry: 2540.00 · Stop: 2459.00 · T1: 2673.00 · T2: 2722.00 · R:R: 1.6 / 2.2
Why: Biggest daily gain in the universe (+2.83%), crossed above EMA50 AND above POC on the same day, RSI +5.7 off a washed-out 48.6. Down 30.1% from the 52w high, so this is a recovery trade off a deeply beaten name.
Confluence: POC 2500.50 now acts as support directly beneath entry, and it sits between classic S1 (2481) and Pivot (2518) - a tight support cluster 2481-2518. T2 2722 is EMA200, the obvious first real ceiling.
Caveat: This is RECOVERING, not BULLISH. Price is still below EMA20 (2566.75) and below EMA200 (2722.49), and MACD is bearish. RV 0.70 is thin. Treat as a counter-trend swing with a hard stop, not a trend trade.

AV - LONG - CONTINUING (breakout, 5-day up streak)
Entry: break and hold above 740.20 · Stop: 727.60 · T1: 760.00 · T2: 780.00 · R:R: 1.5 / 3.1
Why: Closed at 737.00, just -0.4% from the 52w high of 740.20 - Tuesday's high WAS the 52w high. BULLISH above all EMAs, 5-day up streak, weekly +4.96% with RSI +12.7 on the week. This is the strongest sustained trend in the FTSE universe right now.
Confluence: EMA20 703.32, EMA50 678.79, POC 657.64 all stacked well below - clean structure, nothing overhead but blue sky.
Caveat: RSI 73.3 is overbought and RV 0.81 is below average. Do not chase inside the range - only take the break. A failed breakout here is a fast reversal.

ANTO - SHORT - CONTINUING (post-guidance-cut)
Entry: break below 3495.00 · Stop: 3580.00 · T1: 3400.00 · T2: 3300.00 · R:R: 1.1 / 2.3
Why: Worst mover in the whole feed - week -11.85%, weekly RSI -19.8 pts. Copper output guidance cut to 625-655kt from 650-700kt after storms shut Los Pelambres. BEARISH below EMA20 (3769.03) and EMA50 (3788.49). POC 3901.25 is 9.7% ABOVE price - the 60-day value area has been completely abandoned.
Confluence: EMA200 at 3498.50 is the last line of defence and it is only 1.6% below the close. The trade is the break of it, not the anticipation of it. Classic S3 at 3435.80 is the first target zone.
Caveat: RSI 40.6 is not yet oversold but the whole mining complex is stretched, and a copper bounce takes this back to EMA20 fast. Wait for the EMA200 break to confirm - do not front-run it.



6. INTRADAY SETUPS

BP - Camarilla long range (with trend)
Entry: 530.94 (cam S3) · Stop: 528.00 (below cam S4 528.39) · T1: 534.35 (cam R1) · T2: 536.06 (cam R3) · R:R: 1.2 / 1.7
Direction: LONG. Buy the first dip into cam S3. Aligned with the fresh EMA20/EMA50 cross and the oil bid, so the range trade has trend behind it. If price never trades down to S3, do not chase - the alternative is the cam R4 break at 538.62 for a momentum continuation.

SHEL - Camarilla long range
Entry: 3374.58 (cam S3) · Stop: 3360.00 (below cam S4 3361.16) · T1: 3392.47 (cam R1) · T2: 3401.42 (cam R3) · R:R: 1.2 / 1.8
Direction: LONG. Same trade construction as BP but on the stronger trend name. cam S4 3361.16 is almost exactly Tuesday's low (3355.50) plus classic S1 (3360.90) - a triple-confluence floor. Below 3355 the whole intraday thesis is void.

AAL - Camarilla short range (with fresh breakdown)
Entry: 3863.18 (cam R3) · Stop: 3900.00 (above cam R4 3895.35) · T1: 3820.28 (cam R1 / support flip) · T2: 3798.83 (cam S3) · R:R: 1.2 / 1.7
Direction: SHORT. Fade the bounce. AAL crossed below EMA20 AND put in a MACD bearish crossover on the same session. Strong confluence at target: cam S3 3798.83 sits on POC 3799.82 (within 0.03%) and just above EMA50 3775.62. That 3775-3800 band is where the move should stall.
Volume caution: RV 0.32 - very thin. Widen the stop or halve size; thin tape produces false breaks in both directions.

BARC - Camarilla short range
Entry: 506.79 (cam R3) · Stop: 510.50 (above cam R4 509.98) · T1: 502.54 (cam S1) · T2: 500.41 (cam S3) · R:R: 1.1 / 1.7
Direction: SHORT. Crossed below EMA50 (503.98) Tuesday with RSI -6.6. With CPI at 2.9% pushing BoE cuts further out, the banks' rate-cut trade stays under pressure. Confluence: POC 498.13 sits almost exactly on classic S1 499.60 (0.30% apart) - that 498-500 zone is the natural cover point.

NG - Pivot bounce long
Entry: 1204.50 (classic Pivot) · Stop: 1194.00 (classic S1) · T1: 1216.50 · T2: 1221.50 (classic R1) · R:R: 1.1 / 1.6
Direction: LONG. Biggest RSI surge in the universe (+8.3 to 51.6), crossed above EMA20, MACD bullish, and RV 1.01 so it is real volume. Defensive utility bid on a hot-CPI day makes sense.
Important: there is a heavy resistance cluster at 1211-1218 - EMA200 1211.70, POC 1216.70, EMA50 1217.63 all sit in a 6-point band, and price closed at 1211.00 right on the bottom edge of it. T1 1216.50 is inside that band; do not expect a clean run to R1 without a decisive close above 1218.



7. KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

BP - 533.50
Cam: S4 528.39 · S3 530.94 · S1 532.65 || R1 534.35 · R3 536.06 · R4 538.62
Classic: S3 518.97 · S2 523.03 · S1 528.27 · Pivot 532.33 · R1 537.57 · R2 541.63 · R3 546.87
EMAs: 20 = 525.76 · 50 = 522.24 · 200 = 500.65 | POC 514.72 | ATR 14.14
Prev H/L: 536.40 / 527.10 | 52w H/L: 609.40 / 399.35

SHEL - 3388.00
Cam: S4 3361.16 · S3 3374.58 · S1 3383.53 || R1 3392.47 · R3 3401.42 · R4 3414.84
Classic: S3 3312.10 · S2 3333.80 · S1 3360.90 · Pivot 3382.60 · R1 3409.70 · R2 3431.40 · R3 3458.50
EMAs: 20 = 3294.35 · 50 = 3226.22 · 200 = 3069.92 | POC 3146.62 | ATR 65.38
Prev H/L: 3404.30 / 3355.50 | 52w H/L: 3591.50 / 2553.77

AV - 737.00
Cam: S4 730.08 · S3 733.54 · S1 735.85 || R1 738.15 · R3 740.46 · R4 743.92
Classic: S3 717.08 · S2 722.35 · S1 729.67 · Pivot 734.94 · R1 742.26 · R2 747.53 · R3 754.85
EMAs: 20 = 703.32 · 50 = 678.79 · 200 = 647.85 | POC 657.64 | ATR 12.64
Prev H/L: 740.20 / 727.61 | 52w H/L: 740.20 / 590.60 (prev high IS the 52w high)

AAL - 3831.00
Cam: S4 3766.65 · S3 3798.83 · S1 3820.28 || R1 3841.73 · R3 3863.18 · R4 3895.35
Classic: S3 3669.33 · S2 3741.67 · S1 3786.33 · Pivot 3858.67 · R1 3903.33 · R2 3975.67 · R3 4020.33
EMAs: 20 = 3845.35 · 50 = 3775.62 · 200 = 3456.21 | POC 3799.82 | ATR 134.60
Prev H/L: 3931.00 / 3814.00 | 52w H/L: 4239.00 / 2123.00

ANTO - 3555.00
Cam: S4 3508.44 · S3 3531.72 · S1 3547.24 || R1 3562.76 · R3 3578.28 · R4 3601.56
Classic: S3 3435.80 · S2 3485.90 · S1 3520.45 · Pivot 3570.55 · R1 3605.10 · R2 3655.20 · R3 3689.75
EMAs: 20 = 3769.03 · 50 = 3788.49 · 200 = 3498.50 | POC 3901.25 | ATR 169.94
Prev H/L: 3620.65 / 3536.00 | 52w H/L: 4475.00 / 2077.00



8. BEARISH WARNINGS

FRESH BREAKDOWNS (triggered Tuesday - highest priority):

AAL - crossed below EMA20 AND MACD bearish crossover in the same session. Week -5.99%, RSI -6.2. The only name with a double fresh signal.
BARC - crossed below EMA50, now BEARISH below 20/50. RSI -6.6 to 43.9. Only EMA200 (453.83) left beneath.
NWG - crossed below EMA20 with the largest RSI drop on the board (-8.3).
LLOY - crossed below EMA20 on a 4-day down streak. EMA50 support is the next test.
HSBA - crossed below EMA20, RSI -5.2.
INF - crossed below EMA20 AND MACD bearish crossover. Second double-signal name.
LGEN - crossed below EMA20, 2-day down streak.
DGE - MACD bearish crossover despite still being BULLISH above all EMAs. Early warning, not a breakdown yet.

PERSISTENT WEAKNESS:

RTO - RSI 26.5, deeply oversold, 5-day down streak, BEARISH below all EMAs, -31.8% from 52w high, and the close (345.70) is only 4.9% above the 52w low (329.60). POC 406.60 sits right on EMA50 407.67 - that is a wall of overhead supply 17% above price. RV 0.38 means nobody is stepping in. This is the weakest chart in the FTSE universe. Oversold is not a buy signal in a downtrend of this quality.
CPG - 5-day down streak, week -4.52%, weekly RSI -12.1, BEARISH below 20/50. POC 3221 sits between EMA20 3210 and EMA50 3189 - a tight resistance knot right overhead.
RKT - 5-day down streak, week -3.03%, BEARISH below all EMAs, -23.4% from 52w high.
TSCO / IMB / BATS - RSI 34.4 / 34.5 / 35.5, all BEARISH below all EMAs, all below POC, and none of them bounced on Tuesday when the rest of the market's oversold names did. Staples are not participating.
RIO - week -5.63%, weekly RSI -17.4, BEARISH below 20/50, below POC. Mining contagion.
LSEG - BEARISH below all EMAs, below POC. POC 8695.92 sits between EMA20 8679.92 and EMA50 8756.53 - overhead supply cluster at 8680-8760, 2-3% above the close.

SECTOR-LEVEL WARNING: five out of five banks fell on Tuesday and four of them registered a fresh EMA break or a 6+ point RSI drop. With 10y gilts at 5.08% and CPI back up at 2.9%, the rate-cut trade that carried this sector is being repriced. Treat any long bank exposure as being on the wrong side of the macro right now.



9. EVENTS CALENDAR

TODAY - Wednesday 19 August
07:00 - ONS UK CPI (July) - reported at 2.9% y/y, up from 2.6% in June. The main event. Hot print keeps BoE cuts pushed out - bearish banks and rate-sensitives, supportive of defensives and dollar earners.
07:00 - ONS PPI and RPI released alongside CPI.
Ongoing - US-Iran / Strait of Hormuz headlines. Brent $90.87 and any escalation is a direct positive for BP and SHEL and a negative for the airlines and consumer.

THIS WEEK
Thursday 20 Aug - flash PMIs (UK, euro area, US). UK composite is the one that matters for the domestic names.
Thursday 20 Aug - US initial jobless claims.
Friday 21 Aug - UK retail sales (July) and GfK consumer confidence. Directly relevant to TSCO, ABF, CPG, DGE.
Late week - Jackson Hole symposium commentary begins; Fed tone drives the dollar and therefore the FTSE's overseas earners.

RECENT / IN PLAY
Antofagasta 2026 half-year (16 Aug) - pretax profit +72% to $2.00bn, revenue +18% to $4.48bn, dividend +81% to 30.1c, but 2026 copper output guidance cut to 625-655kt from 650-700kt after storms forced the Los Pelambres shutdown and a state of catastrophe in Coquimbo. This is still driving the entire mining complex and is the single most important stock-level story on the board.

EX-DIVIDEND - the FTSE ex-div calendar clusters around Thursdays in August. Check the individual RNS before sizing any overnight position in the high-yielders (LGEN, IMB, BATS, PRU, AV) - an ex-div gap will look like a breakdown on the chart and is not one.



10. BOTTOM LINE

Six down days on the index, but underneath it this is a clean rotation, not distribution. Energy, pharma, utilities and data names up; banks and miners down as a bloc. The two stories doing all the work are Brent above $91 and the Antofagasta guidance cut.

Where the edge is: BP is the highest-quality long - it is the only bullish EMA cross in the universe with above-average volume behind it, and it has a genuine catalyst. SHEL is the same trade further along.

Where the risk is: banks. Five for five down, fresh EMA breaks across the board, and a CPI print at 2.9% that makes the rate-cut story harder. Do not buy the dip here yet.

The volume caveat that applies to everything today: outside BP (1.21), SGE (1.45), SSE (1.16) and HLN (1.16), relative volume was below 1.0 across most of the board and as low as 0.32 on AAL. Thin tape exaggerates moves and produces false breaks. Widen stops, cut size, and demand confirmation before committing to anything that triggered on Tuesday's volume.


Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Tuesday 18 August 2026
Data: close Mon 17 Aug 2026 (latest scanner snapshot, 40 FTSE names) · UKX 10,720.30 (-29.81, -0.28%) · Futures: data unavailable - no reliable print found


MARKET OVERVIEW

The FTSE 100 closed Monday at 10,720.30, down 29.81 points (-0.28%), finishing just off the session low after trading as high as 10,757.91 mid-morning. The index failed to convert an early attempt at snapping its six-day losing streak, and follows a 1.4% weekly decline.

Futures: no reliable FTSE 100 futures print could be verified for this morning's open. Reported figures in circulation reference stale prior-closes that do not reconcile with Monday's 10,720.30 cash close, so no number is quoted here rather than guess one. Note also the front FTSE contract periodically rolls quarterly - a far-dated contract trades below spot purely on the dividend discount and is not a directional signal.

What actually moved: the tape was a clean rotation. Miners and select cyclicals carried the index while defensives and consumer staples were dumped. Anglo American +2.6%, Rolls-Royce +1.5%, Glencore +1.2%, Antofagasta +1.2%, Rio Tinto +1.1% against WPP -3.7%, Diageo -3.2%, Experian -3.0%, AB Foods -2.9%, Tesco -2.8%, RELX -2.3%, Reckitt -2.1%. GSK was the standout large-cap gainer at +2.0% and AstraZeneca added 0.7% on late-stage lung cancer trial results.

Macro backdrop: softer US retail sales, payrolls and producer price data have cooled expectations of near-term Fed tightening, which supported global risk appetite. The domestic story is entirely front-loaded into data - ONS labour market statistics land today and July CPI lands tomorrow (19 Aug). Positioning ahead of those two prints explains the defensive de-risking far better than any single stock story.

Critical volume caveat: every one of the 40 names in the scanner printed relative volume below 1.0 - the highest was LGEN at 0.95, and 30 of 40 came in under 0.45. This is a thin August tape. Breakouts on this kind of participation fail more often than they hold. Size down, widen stops, and treat every level below as provisional until volume confirms.


NOTABLE CHANGES (day over day)

EXPN - the worst structural break of the day. Crossed BELOW EMA20 and BELOW EMA200 in the same session, -3.4%, RSI -7.5 pts to 50.5. Now 29.7% off its 52-week high.

TSCO - crossed BELOW EMA200 (456.80) after a Shore Capital downgrade to hold. -2.7%, RSI -6.3 to 35.5, StochRSI 2.3, ADX 36.4. Below POC 461.69. Trend is down and strong.

RKT - crossed BELOW EMA50, now a 4-day down streak, week -5.3%, RSI -16.1 pts over the week. MACD histogram -36.63, the most negative in the universe.

CPG - crossed BELOW EMA50 plus a MACD bearish crossover, 4th consecutive down day, and slipped below POC 3219.

DGE - big move -3.3%, RSI -9.7 pts, StochRSI pinned at 0. Still technically above all three EMAs, which makes it the cleanest mean-reversion candidate on the board.

ABF - RSI -9.1 pts, crossed BELOW EMA50 (2001.91). Next real support is the EMA200 at 1976.50.

BP and BARC - BP crossed below EMA50 (now BEARISH below 20/50), Barclays crossed below EMA20. Two quiet breaks worth watching.

PRU - crossed ABOVE POC (1029.85) on a 4-day up streak, RSI +3.4. The only genuinely constructive change among the laggards.

AV - 4-day up streak, week +4.4%, weekly RSI +12.3 pts, closed 727.8 having tagged its 52-week high at 736.20 intraday. Strongest continuation on the board, but StochRSI is at 100.


SECTOR HEATMAP

MINING - STRONGEST · AAL +2.62 · GLEN +1.22 · ANTO +1.17 · RIO +1.05. All four moved together on firmer gold and copper. AAL and GLEN are BULLISH above all EMAs; ANTO and RIO are still BEARISH below 20/50 and lagging the recovery.

PHARMA - RECOVERING · GSK +2.04 · AZN +0.73 · HLN -1.30. Big pharma bid on trial newsflow, but both AZN and GSK remain BEARISH below all EMAs. This is a bounce, not a turn.

AEROSPACE / DEFENCE - MIXED · RR. +1.48 · BAE -0.75. Both BULLISH above all EMAs, both within 5% of 52-week highs. Sector structure is the best in the index.

BANKS - NEUTRAL · STAN +1.13 · HSBA +0.43 · NWG -0.08 · LLOY -0.43 · BARC -1.00. Flat and directionless into the data. Barclays the only structural change (below EMA20).

INSURANCE - MIXED · PRU +1.12 · AV +0.17 · LGEN -0.72 · ADM -1.07. AV and ADM strong on trend, PRU improving off a weak base.

ENERGY - NEUTRAL · SHEL +0.45 · BP -0.42. Shell holds above all EMAs, BP just lost its EMA50.

CONSUMER STAPLES - WEAKEST · DGE -3.17 · ABF -2.92 · RKT -2.11 · ULVR -1.87 · BATS -1.50 · IMB -0.96 · TSCO -2.77. Seven names, seven red. This was a coordinated sector exit, not stock-specific news.

MEDIA / DATA - WEAK · WPP -3.66 · EXPN -2.98 · REL -2.34 · INF -2.03. RELX is 32.1% off its 52-week high and Experian 29.7% off. Sustained institutional distribution.

UTILITIES - NEUTRAL · SSE -0.54 · NG -0.45. Low ADX (10.9 and 9.9), going nowhere.


DAILY TECHNICAL SIGNALS

All EMA classifications below are strict numeric comparisons of close against EMA20 / EMA50 / EMA200. All 40 were re-verified programmatically: zero mismatches.

BULLISH - ABOVE ALL EMAS (17 names)
AAL 3951 (+2.62%, RSI 56.8 +4.2, MACD bull, -6.8% from 52wH, above POC)
RR. 1563.8 (+1.48%, RSI 64.9 +2.9, MACD bull, -1.4% from 52wH, above POC)
GLEN 555.6 (+1.22%, RSI 53.7 +2.3, MACD bull, -18.1% from 52wH, above POC)
STAN 2244 (+1.13%, RSI 61.9 +3.7, MACD bear, -0.8% from 52wH, above POC)
SHEL 3335 (+0.45%, RSI 57.3, MACD bear, -7.1% from 52wH, above POC)
HSBA 1534.4 (+0.43%, RSI 54.3, MACD bear, -7.2% from 52wH, above POC)
AV 727.8 (+0.17%, RSI 70.4 OVERBOUGHT, MACD bull, -1.1% from 52wH, above POC)
NWG 707.2 (-0.08%, RSI 59.4, MACD bear, -2.6% from 52wH, above POC)
LLOY 114.7 (-0.43%, RSI 53.8, MACD bear, -2.7% from 52wH, above POC)
LGEN 302.8 (-0.72%, RSI 53.5, MACD bear, -4.8% from 52wH, above POC)
BAE 2241 (-0.75%, RSI 69.2, MACD bull, -5.0% from 52wH, above POC)
ADM 3890 (-1.07%, RSI 60.9, MACD bull, -2.9% from 52wH, above POC)
SGE 1046 (-1.37%, RSI 67.0, MACD bull, -11.4% from 52wH, above POC)
VOD 119.4 (-1.77%, RSI 55.5, MACD bear, -8.9% from 52wH, above POC)
INF 907 (-2.03%, RSI 53.6 -8.6, MACD bull, -9.3% from 52wH, above POC)
DGE 1708 (-3.17%, RSI 56.4 -9.7, MACD bull, -20.3% from 52wH, above POC)
WPP 384.4 (-3.66%, RSI 66.0 -6.6, MACD bull, -6.8% from 52wH, above POC)

BULLISH - ABOVE 20/50, BELOW 200 (1 name)
III 2782 (-0.11%, RSI 53.9, MACD bear, -38.1% from 52wH, above POC)

MIXED (4 names)
BNZL 2748 (-0.36%, below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, RSI 49.0, above POC)
SSE 2407 (-0.54%, above EMA20, below EMA50, above EMA200, RSI 50.7, above POC)
BARC 515.3 (-1.00%, below EMA20, above EMA50, above EMA200, RSI 50.5, above POC)
EXPN 2804 (-2.98%, below EMA20, above EMA50, below EMA200, RSI 50.5 -7.5, above POC)

BEARISH - BELOW 20/50, ABOVE 200 (5 names)
ANTO 3627 (+1.17%, RSI 43.1, MACD bear, -18.9% from 52wH, below POC)
RIO 7133 (+1.05%, RSI 48.1, MACD bear, -21.8% from 52wH, below POC)
BP 520.7 (-0.42%, RSI 48.6, MACD bear, -14.6% from 52wH, above POC)
CPG 3152 (-1.68%, RSI 45.0, MACD bear, -15.9% from 52wH, below POC)
ABF 1992 (-2.92%, RSI 42.9 -9.1, MACD bear, -15.6% from 52wH, above POC)

BEARISH - BELOW ALL EMAS (13 names)
GSK 1854.5 (+2.04%, RSI 41.0 +7.2, MACD bear, -18.7% from 52wH, below POC)
PRU 1036.5 (+1.12%, RSI 46.6 +3.4, MACD bear, -16.3% from 52wH, above POC)
AZN 11544 (+0.73%, RSI 34.9, MACD bear, -26.6% from 52wH, below POC, ADX 41)
NG 1188.14 (-0.45%, RSI 43.3, MACD bull, -16.8% from 52wH, below POC)
LSEG 8460 (-0.89%, RSI 42.1, MACD bear, -16.6% from 52wH, below POC, 5-day down streak)
IMB 2584 (-0.96%, RSI 35.0, MACD bear, -22.7% from 52wH, below POC)
RTO 346.6 (-1.28%, RSI 26.8 OVERSOLD, MACD bear, -31.6% from 52wH, below POC, ADX 34.5)
HLN 350.96 (-1.30%, RSI 39.7, MACD bear, -15.7% from 52wH, above POC)
BATS 4151 (-1.50%, RSI 35.5, MACD bear, -17.0% from 52wH, below POC)
ULVR 4503.5 (-1.87%, RSI 41.3, MACD bear, -18.5% from 52wH, above POC)
RKT 5006 (-2.11%, RSI 42.8 -6.3, MACD bear, -23.2% from 52wH, above POC)
REL 2467 (-2.34%, RSI 42.9, MACD bear, -32.1% from 52wH, below POC)
TSCO 448.7 (-2.77%, RSI 35.5 -6.3, MACD bear, -13.8% from 52wH, below POC, ADX 36.4)


TOP SWING SETUPS

1. GLENCORE (GLEN) - LONG - NEW
The tightest confluence on the board. POC 548.68, EMA20 549.69 and EMA50 544.73 are stacked within 1% of each other, and price closed at 555.60 just above the entire cluster after a +1.22% day with RSI turning up (+2.3). That cluster is your risk line - it is either support or the trade is wrong, with no ambiguity.
Entry: 555.60 · Stop: 543.00 · T1: 574.97 · T2: 595.00 · R:R: 3.1
Confluence: POC + EMA20 + EMA50 cluster immediately below. Sector-wide mining strength. ATR 17.92, so the stop is well inside 1 ATR of noise.
Risk: RV 0.27 - very thin. 18.1% below the 52-week high means plenty of overhead supply.

2. ANGLO AMERICAN (AAL) - LONG - CONTINUING
The strongest name in the strongest sector. BULLISH above all EMAs, +2.62%, RSI 56.8 and rising 4.2 points, MACD histogram +12.41 and expanding. POC 3796.86 sits right on the EMA50 at 3774.26 - a well-defined demand shelf roughly 4.5% below.
Entry: 3951 (or pull back to 3900) · Stop: 3810 · T1: 4090 · T2: 4239 · R:R: 2.0
Confluence: POC/EMA50 shelf at 3775-3797 under the stop. Cleared EMA20 3849. T2 is the 52-week high.
Risk: RV 0.38. ATR 135.95 is wide - size the position off the 141-point risk, not the share count.

3. BAE SYSTEMS (BAE) - LONG - CONTINUING
A textbook pullback in an intact uptrend. BULLISH above all EMAs, RSI 69.2, MACD histogram +9.1, ADX 24.1 confirming trend. Monday's -0.75% dip took StochRSI down to 37.6, which resets the short-term overbought condition without damaging structure. EMA20 sits 4.7% below at 2136.33.
Entry: 2241, or on a reclaim of 2260 · Stop: 2182 · T1: 2300 · T2: 2360 · R:R: 2.0
Confluence: Stop is 1 ATR (58.87) below entry and above the EMA20. T2 is the 52-week high at 2360.
Risk: RV 0.39. Defence has run hard - a broad risk-off print on CPI would hit this.

4. ROLLS-ROYCE (RR.) - LONG BREAKOUT - CONTINUING
Sitting 1.4% under its 52-week high at 1586 after a +1.48% day and a 2-day up streak. RSI 64.9, StochRSI 75, MACD histogram +4.01, ADX 23.5. This is a coiled breakout, but it needs the level - do not pre-empt it.
Entry: 1586 on a break and hold · Stop: 1544 · T1: 1628 · T2: 1670 · R:R: 2.0
Confluence: 52-week high breakout. Stop is 1 ATR (41.69) below entry, under Monday's low of 1550.60.
Risk: RV 0.20 - the thinnest reading in the top five. A breakout to a new 52-week high on a fifth of average volume is exactly the kind that gets faded. Wait for the close.

5. TESCO (TSCO) - SHORT - NEW
The freshest and most convincing breakdown available. Crossed below the EMA200 at 456.80 on Monday, closed at 448.70, RSI 35.5 and falling 6.3 points, StochRSI 2.3, ADX 36.4 (strongest downtrend reading among the breakdown names), and now below POC 461.69. Catalyst is the Shore Capital downgrade to hold.
Entry: short below 447.27 · Stop: 461.00 · T1: 439.19 · T2: 431.12 · R:R: 1.2
Confluence: Stop sits above both the EMA200 and POC. T1 is classic S2, T2 is classic S3. 52-week low is 411.70.
Risk: StochRSI at 2.3 means it is already washed out short-term - a bounce back to the EMA200 is a live possibility before any continuation. R:R is the weakest of the five; this is a tactical short, not a core position.


INTRADAY SETUPS

GLEN - CAMARILLA BREAKOUT LONG
Price closed above the POC/EMA cluster with momentum turning. A move through Camarilla R3 signals a trend day rather than a range day.
Entry: above 559.09 (cam R3) · Stop: 554.40 (cam S1) · T1: 562.59 (cam R4) · T2: 568.93 (classic R2) · R:R: 2.8
Why: cam R4 562.59 and classic R1 562.27 coincide almost exactly, and Monday's high was 562.90. Clearing that band opens the path to 568.93.

RR. - CAMARILLA BREAKOUT LONG
Entry: above 1576.12 (cam R4) · Stop: 1563.80 · T1: 1586.00 (52-week high) · T2: 1596.73 (classic R3) · R:R: 1.9
Why: a close above cam R4 is the classic Camarilla trend-day trigger. Monday's high 1573 is just under it, so the level is genuinely contested. Above 1586 there is no overhead supply for 12 months.

DGE - CAMARILLA REVERSAL LONG
The best mean-reversion candidate in the index. Down 3.17% with StochRSI at zero, yet still trading above EMA20 1683.56, EMA50 1616.93 and EMA200 1644.26, with MACD still bullish. Oversold inside an intact uptrend.
Entry: 1692.88 (cam S3) on a reversal signal · Stop: 1677.00 (below cam S4 1677.75) · T1: 1713.04 (cam R1) · T2: 1721.67 (pivot) · R:R: 1.8
Why: cam S3 at 1692.88 sits just above the EMA20 at 1683.56 - two supports within 10 points. Losing both invalidates cleanly. RSI dropped 9.7 points in one session, which is stretched.

ABF - EMA200 BOUNCE LONG
Entry: 1976.50 (EMA200 + cam S3 1973.71) · Stop: 1955.00 (below cam S4 1955.43) · T1: 1998.10 (cam R1) · T2: 2013.17 (pivot) · R:R: 1.7
Why: the EMA200 at 1976.50 and Camarilla S3 at 1973.71 are within 3 points of each other, and Monday's low was 1990.50. StochRSI at 0 after a 9.1-point RSI drop. This is a first-touch bounce off a major moving average, and only that - the EMA50 was lost on Monday, so the medium-term structure has deteriorated.

TSCO - CAMARILLA BREAKDOWN SHORT
Entry: below 445.17 (cam S3) · Stop: 448.70 · T1: 441.64 (cam S4) · T2: 439.19 (classic S2) · R:R: 1.7
Why: price closed at 448.70 with Monday's low at 447.27, so cam S3 is only a few points away. Breaking S3 and S4 on a Camarilla framework is the trend-continuation-down signal. ADX 36.4 says the downtrend has real strength behind it.

AAL - PIVOT CONTINUATION LONG
Entry: above 3954 (Monday's high) · Stop: 3931.67 (pivot) · T1: 3973.33 (classic R1) · T2: 3995.67 (classic R2) · R:R: 2.9
Why: Monday's close of 3951 sits almost exactly on the pivot at 3931.67 and between cam S1 and cam R1 - a neutral, coiled position. Above the prior high with the sector bid, R1 and R2 are the natural objectives. Below the pivot, stand aside.


KEY LEVELS DASHBOARD

AAL - 3951
Cam: S4 3915.80 · S3 3933.40 · S1 3945.13 || R1 3956.87 · R3 3968.60 · R4 3986.20
Classic: S3 3845.33 · S2 3867.67 · S1 3909.33 · Pivot 3931.67 · R1 3973.33 · R2 3995.67 · R3 4037.33
EMAs: 20 3849.05 · 50 3774.26 · 200 3452.67 || POC 3796.86
Prev H/L: 3954 / 3890 || 52w H/L: 4239 / 2123 || ATR 135.95 · RSI 56.8 · ADX 21.7 · RV 0.38

RR. - 1563.8
Cam: S4 1551.48 · S3 1557.64 · S1 1561.75 || R1 1565.85 · R3 1569.96 · R4 1576.12
Classic: S3 1529.53 · S2 1540.07 · S1 1551.93 · Pivot 1562.47 · R1 1574.33 · R2 1584.87 · R3 1596.73
EMAs: 20 1496.63 · 50 1430.56 · 200 1264.85 || POC 1392.53
Prev H/L: 1573 / 1550.6 || 52w H/L: 1586 / 1018.5 || ATR 41.69 · RSI 64.9 · ADX 23.5 · RV 0.20

GLEN - 555.6
Cam: S4 548.62 · S3 552.11 · S1 554.44 || R1 556.76 · R3 559.09 · R4 562.59
Classic: S3 536.87 · S2 543.53 · S1 549.57 · Pivot 556.23 · R1 562.27 · R2 568.93 · R3 574.97
EMAs: 20 549.69 · 50 544.73 · 200 499.45 || POC 548.68
Prev H/L: 562.9 / 550.2 || 52w H/L: 678.7 / 281.93 || ATR 17.92 · RSI 53.7 · ADX 21.3 · RV 0.27

BAE - 2241
Cam: S4 2223.95 · S3 2232.48 · S1 2238.16 || R1 2243.84 · R3 2249.53 · R4 2258.05
Classic: S3 2198 · S2 2217 · S1 2229 · Pivot 2248 · R1 2260 · R2 2279 · R3 2291
EMAs: 20 2136.33 · 50 2041.56 · 200 1966.96 || POC 1952.12
Prev H/L: 2267 / 2236 || 52w H/L: 2360 / 1564 || ATR 58.87 · RSI 69.2 · ADX 24.1 · RV 0.39

TSCO - 448.7
Cam: S4 441.64 · S3 445.17 · S1 447.52 || R1 449.88 · R3 452.23 · R4 455.76
Classic: S3 431.12 · S2 439.19 · S1 443.95 · Pivot 452.02 · R1 456.78 · R2 464.85 · R3 469.61
EMAs: 20 469.82 · 50 469.74 · 200 456.80 || POC 461.69
Prev H/L: 460.1 / 447.27 || 52w H/L: 520.6 / 411.7 || ATR 11.60 · RSI 35.5 · ADX 36.4 · RV 0.49


BEARISH WARNINGS

Ordered by freshness of the breakdown.

1. EXPN 2804 - DOUBLE EMA BREAK
Crossed below EMA20 (2818.52) and EMA200 (2893.43) in the same session, -3.44%, RSI -7.5. Only the EMA50 at 2746.53 stands between price and open air. Now 29.7% below the 52-week high. Losing 2746.53 turns this fully bearish.

2. TSCO 448.7 - EMA200 LOST
Broke the 456.80 EMA200 with ADX 36.4 confirming a strong trend and volume the heaviest of the breakdown group at RV 0.49. Analyst downgrade as catalyst. 52-week low 411.70 is the eventual objective.

3. RKT 5006 - EMA50 LOST, DAY 4
Fourth consecutive down day, -5.3% on the week, RSI -16.1 points over five sessions, MACD histogram -36.63 (worst in the universe). Now BEARISH below all EMAs. POC 4901.70 is the last support before the 52-week low at 3866.

4. CPG 3152 - EMA50 LOST + MACD CROSS
Crossed below EMA50 (3191) with a fresh MACD bearish crossover on day four of a down streak, and lost POC 3219. EMA200 at 3102 is the line that matters - below it, the whole structure fails.

5. ABF 1992 - EMA50 LOST
RSI -9.1 in a single session, closed 1.50 off the day's low. EMA200 1976.50 is the immediate test. See the intraday bounce setup above, but note the medium-term structure has already broken.

6. BP 520.7 - EMA50 LOST
Now BEARISH below 20/50. EMA20 525.05 becomes resistance. POC 514.63 and EMA200 500.33 are the supports below.

7. BARC 515.3 - EMA20 LOST
A quiet break, but RV 0.75 is the second-highest reading in the index - relatively heavy participation. EMA50 is the next test.

8. REL 2467 - POC LOST
Crossed below POC 2498.99, week -5.41%, BEARISH below all EMAs, and 32.1% below the 52-week high - the worst drawdown in the universe. Sustained distribution, no bottoming signal.

9. RTO 346.6 - OVERSOLD BUT FALLING
RSI 26.8, ADX 34.5, 4-day down streak, 31.6% off the 52-week high, RV 0.16 (thinnest in the index). BEARISH below all EMAs with the EMA200 at 432.38 a long way overhead. Oversold is not a buy signal here - this is a falling knife.

10. AZN 11544 - STRONG DOWNTREND INTACT
Rose 0.73% on lung cancer trial results, but RSI is 34.9, ADX 41 (the second-strongest trend reading in the index and it is pointed down), MACD histogram -30.08, and price is 26.6% off the 52-week high with the EMA20 at 12137.64 acting as resistance nearly 5% overhead. One day of good news does not reverse this. RV 0.55.

11. LSEG 8460 - FIVE-DAY DOWN STREAK
The longest losing run in the universe. BEARISH below all EMAs, and POC 8707.44 sits right between the EMA20 (8696.51) and EMA50 (8766.05) - a dense resistance band about 3% overhead that will cap any bounce.


EVENTS CALENDAR

TODAY - Tuesday 18 August
ONS UK Labour Market Overview (unemployment rate, average weekly earnings). Prior: unemployment 4.9%, wages +4.3% including bonuses, +3.4% excluding. This is the primary intraday volatility driver for banks, insurers, retailers and domestic-facing names. Expect the market to be quiet until the release lands.

TOMORROW - Wednesday 19 August
ONS Consumer Price Inflation, UK: July 2026. The main event of the week and the reason defensives were sold on Monday. A hot print pressures rate-sensitive sectors, housebuilders and retailers; a soft print should extend the mining and cyclical rotation. Position sizing today should account for this landing tomorrow morning.

Rest of week
FTSE 100 interim results season is largely complete for August - no major index-constituent reports scheduled among the 40 tracked names. US macro remains the secondary driver, with recent soft retail sales, payrolls and PPI data having pushed Fed tightening expectations further out.

Note on ex-dividend dates: no ex-dividend dates are carried in the scanner feed. Check individual RNS announcements before holding any of the higher-yielding names (LGEN, IMB, BATS, HSBA, NG, SSE) through Thursday, the usual UK ex-div day.


SUMMARY

Monday was a rotation day, not a direction day. Money moved out of consumer staples and media into miners and cyclicals, and the index closed marginally lower because the defensive block is heavier than the cyclical one. The market is coiled ahead of two UK data prints in 48 hours, and every single name traded on below-average volume.

The trade: the highest-quality long structures are GLEN (tightest confluence), AAL (strongest momentum), BAE (cleanest pullback) and RR. (breakout pending confirmation). The highest-conviction short structure is TSCO, with EXPN the freshest structural break worth watching for a continuation entry.

The caveat: with universe-wide relative volume under 1.0 and CPI landing tomorrow morning, breakout entries carry an elevated failure rate today. Reduce size, honour stops, and consider waiting for the CPI print before committing to anything with a multi-day horizon.


Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.