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Are You A Bull Or Bear?

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Having broken through 147p and 151p in the last few days, it seems to me that there are now 2 very clear possibilities here and they're polar opposites.

On the left we have the bull option showing a truncated 5th wave of wave C (the move down from 260p). Factors supporting this view are the higher low, the trendline from 64p and 87p held again, 147p and 151p got taken out easily and the RSI backtested successfully.
The other option (shown left) is quite bearish. This has the rise of the last couple of days as a subwave 2 up of the 5th wave down. This would target the 87p level for the low of wave C and that level has, rather controversially, been mooted before. Projections of the last couple of moves do also point to this level.

For me, the key test here will be whether the 141p level holds on a closing basis (it's being tested as I type). If it does then that suggests that the bull option is in control (141p is the 61.8% Fib of the last rise). However, if this gets taken out and, more importantly, if there's a new low below 129p (and 126p) then it'll almost certainly drop towards that 87p area.
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Guest Monday, 16 May 2022