Despite the markets' current bearishness and the concern over the US budget and debt ceiling, I think the S&P is worth a long at this uptrend support with stops below it.This support comes from the Nov 2012 low and has played an important role since then, coming into play on at least 4 previous occasions. IMHO this is the support for Primary wave 3 so if this wave is to continue it will need to hold; if it fails then it will likely mean that Primary 3 is over and we're into Primary 4 which should be a long, volatile and unpredictable sideways drop.The level in play here is 1664 so that's where I'll have an order with stops below 1660 Original link...

As expected, 203p acted as support for the retrace from 240p and an inside bar formed on Friday which broke to the upside convincingly today with a marubozu and a gap up which is strongly suggestive of further rises tomorrow and beyond IMHO.Despite the recent high at 240p, it's my belief that a close above 230p will be enough to bring on a test of the next resistance at 260p where there could be some profit-taking. If there isn't and the SP closes above that key level (remember, it's the highest the SP has been since  the drop from 465p to 141p) then it should open up the possibility of a gap close at 337/9p.We need to consider the wave count here too; it's my view that 240p to 203p has formed either a 4th wave or possibly the 4th subwave of the 3rd wave up (no way of knowing)...

Depending on your view, the gap stands at either 193p (the high of the previous day - ignore the big green candle low) or at 187.75p which was the close of the previous day. I prefer the latter for determining stops.In addition, we have the breakout point at 189.75p, the uptrend support which will be at 183.5p today (Fri), the 50% Fib of the 129-240 move at 184.5p, the 50% Fib of 126-240 at 183.2p and the doji from 6th Sept at 184p. Pick you own from that bunch but I'd have a stop below the trendline in case it goes.If the trendline does break then I'd look to 171p as the 61% Fib of the 126-240 move for a target for wave 2 down from 240p with a stop below 166p.Looking at RSI we can see that it's almost back at the main uptrend support which adds weight to...

GKP today failed to follow through on Friday's bullishness and we closed the day with an inside bar and back below 203p.The inside bar should be traded in the direction of the break beyond the limits of the covering candle so that should be long above 210p and short below 196p but beware the support from the last breakout point at 189.75p.There's also the possibility that the correction from 240p is forming a bull flag whose lower trendline meets that breakout point shortly and the main uptrend support in a week or so. Indicators, however, look bearish and further lower closes are likely to cause a breakdown of the RSI uptrend which would suggest to me that this is in a wave 2 down from 240p, perhaps to the 61% Fib at 171p.Supports are at 189.75p, 185p (trendline and doji) and 171p. Resistances are at 210p, 220p and 233p Original...

GKP hit an important level yesterday - that of the gap and main uptrend support. It held, but not very convincingly, leaving a doji on the daily chart so the direction will likely be given by the breakout of that doji in the short term.The main supports and resistances are:Supports: 187.25p, 181p, 171p and 166pResistances: 193.5p (we'll see that in a mo), 199p, 210p, 220p, 233p and 260p. Here's a 4H chart I posted in the comments to the last blog entry. It shows a possible pennant with an upside breakout on a close above 193.5p. Clearly, the SP is at a crucial short term stage here with little room for manoeuvre either way before it breaks out. Original link...