Another very tricky AIM share to read due to the two massive gaps down in May and Sept 2012.There is a short term uptrend in play with support at 17.2p today. This formed from a long term bullish divergence so may have some strength to it. The key initially will be to break out of that short term downtrend from January highs which requires a close above 20.95p currently, though this reduces daily. An early breakout of the RSI would be a good indicator of this possibility.Resistances are at that trendline and at Original link...
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Bowleven is approaching the uptrend support formed from the 53p low on 28th June 2012 and is also close to the long term RSI support which goes back to August 2011.The price support is at 67.4p today, rising daily, so it may be worth going long at around the 68p mark with stops below the nearby strong support at 62.5p. There's also a minor support at 68.25p. Main downtrend resistance is at 95.4p today (falling daily) with the minor downtrend at 89.9p. Watch out for an RSI breakout to help confirm a reversal. Original link...
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I'm long from the trendline and that 68.25p support area this morning. I've got a tight stop just below yesterday's low but there is a lot of support in the 62/3p level so that would be a better stop but I'm keeping a lid on the risk with this as it's been a pretty strong drop. Original link...
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I forgot to update this yesterday (I posted it on www.chartsview.co.uk) but it was looking like a bull flag towards the 61.8% Fib to form a higher low.Low and behold we've had the breakout as news came just at the right time!What we're looking for here is a close above 73.5p to confirm a 123-low breakout. The initial target from that is 78.5p. The way to trade a 123-low is to go long on a close above the earlier high but the news here has catapulted the SP to 76p already and may have backtested the break of 73.5p. We'll have to wait and see where it closes before re-assessing now. Original link...
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Here's the chart from last night's close. We can clearly see how the Dow found resistance at the top of the channel after exceeding the 161.8% Fib (see comparison with S&P500).
The difference here is that the Dow has a much more parallel support giving a better defined channel. We have the same 7 waves inside it so, again, I suspect that last night's top was the top of subwave 3 (made up of the 5 waves up from 31 Dec).
What this suggests is that the current drop is likely to fall back to the channel support for one last rise to complete the move up from Nov '12. A more protracted, but fairly shallow, retrace should follow that so the mid to late summer ought to follow the usual pattern followed by a decent winter
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