Utilities

Last Updated: 20 Jul 2026

National Grid plc is the regulated electricity and gas network operator that owns and runs the high-voltage transmission system in England and Wales, the distribution network across the Midlands, the South West and Wales, and regulated electricity and gas utilities in New York and New England. It does not generate power and, since the disposal of its last non-core assets in 2025, it does not sell energy to households either. Its revenue is set by regulators — Ofgem in the UK, and state public service commissions plus FERC in the United States — against an approved asset base and an allowed return. In the year to 31 March 2026 it invested a record £11,576m of capital, grew its asset base 10.9%, and set out a five-year plan to spend at least £70bn to 2030/31. This report sets out the figures the company itself has published, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• A regulated asset base compounding at double digits: asset growth was 10.9% in 2025/26 and regulated asset growth 11.7%, with UK RAV up 12.8% to £36,986m and the US rate base up 10.3% to £29,452m. Earnings in this model follow the asset base rather than the weather or the commodity cycle.
• Regulatory clarity is now unusually high: National Grid accepted Ofgem's RIIO-T3 Final Determination on 1 March 2026, covering April 2026 to March 2031 with a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% notional gearing. Around two-thirds of the at least £70bn investment plan is now covered by agreed regulatory settlements.
• Management has guided to a step-up in earnings, not just spending: the company expects underlying EPS growth of 13–15% in 2026/27 from the 78.0p baseline, and a compound 8–10% underlying EPS growth rate across the five-year framework to 2030/31.
• The portfolio is now almost entirely regulated: the disposals of National Grid Renewables and Grain LNG completed during 2025/26 for £2,809m of net cash proceeds, removing the merchant and development exposure that previously sat inside National Grid Ventures.
• An inflation-linked, well-covered dividend: the 48.49p full-year dividend is covered approximately 1.6x by underlying earnings, the policy is to grow with UK CPIH, and the company held £17.0bn of distributable reserves at 31 March 2026 — more than five years of forecast group dividends.

Bear Case

• Free cash flow is deeply negative and will stay that way: cash generated from continuing operations of £7,829m was far below cash investment, giving a business net cash outflow of £2,635m before interest, tax and dividends. Group capital investment is guided to around £13bn in 2026/27.
• Net debt is rising fast: net debt reached £44,160m at 31 March 2026, up £2,789m in the year even after £2.8bn of disposal proceeds, and management expects it to increase by just over £6bn again in 2026/27, taking regulatory gearing to around 64%.
• Credit metrics are trending the wrong way: FFO/adjusted net debt fell 70bps to 13.0% and RCF/adjusted net debt fell 50bps to 9.3%, against Moody's RCF threshold of 7% and S&P and Moody's FFO thresholds of 10%.
• Statutory earnings sit well below the headline measure: statutory EPS of 65.5p compares with underlying EPS of 78.0p, a gap created by timing under-recoveries of £636m and £499m of excluded UK deferred tax. The company's preferred metric is not the one that reaches the income statement.

3. Business Segments

National Grid reports five continuing operating segments. The percentages below are calculated against statutory gross revenue of £17,687m for the year to 31 March 2026; segment revenues are stated before intra-group eliminations and therefore sum to slightly more than 100%.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. National Grid earns a regulated return on the capital it has invested in its networks. Regulators approve a regulatory asset value (UK) or rate base (US), set an allowed cost of equity and debt, and permit the company to recover approved operating and capital costs plus incentive payments through network charges. Commodity costs passed through to customers inflate reported revenue without adding profit, which is why gross revenue fell 4% to £17,687m in a year when underlying operating profit rose 6% to £5,680m.

Why the position is defensible. Transmission and distribution networks are natural monopolies. No competitor can build a parallel high-voltage grid across England and Wales or a second set of gas mains under Brooklyn, and the regulatory licences are perpetual in practice. The barrier is legal and physical at the same time, which is why the sector trades on the durability of the regulatory settlement rather than on competitive position.

What determines the return. Three things: the allowed return itself (6.12% real cost of equity under RIIO-T3), the pace at which the asset base grows, and the company's ability to deliver capital projects at or below the allowed cost. Group return on equity was 9.8% in 2025/26, up 80bps. Because the allowed return is set in real terms in the UK, inflation flows through to the RAV rather than being lost — UK RAV grew 12.8% in the year with CPIH indexation contributing.

The trade-off shareholders accept. The model requires permanent external funding. The 2025 rights issue raised £6,839m net and the weighted average share count rose from 4,707m to 4,946m; a scrip dividend alternative absorbs a further portion of the dividend each year, with 28% uptake in 2025/26. Growth in the asset base is real but per-share growth is diluted by the capital needed to fund it.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from National Grid's FY2026 Full Year Results Statement of 14 May 2026, its Form 20-F for 2025/26 filed with the SEC on 3 June 2026, and the corresponding prior-year filings. Amounts are in pounds sterling.

† Basic earnings per share from continuing operations, as reported in the relevant year's Form 20-F. Per-share figures for FY2022 to FY2024 are as originally reported and are not restated for the May 2025 rights issue, so they are not directly comparable with FY2025 and FY2026. ‡ National Grid's headline adjusted measure is "underlying EPS", which excludes exceptional items, remeasurements, regulatory revenue timing differences, major storm costs above threshold and UK deferred tax; comparable underlying figures for FY2022 to FY2024 are not presented on the current continuing-operations basis and are shown as unavailable. Dividend per share for FY2022 to FY2024 was declared before the May 2025 rights issue rebased the per-share amounts and is shown as unavailable rather than on an inconsistent basis.

National Grid reports on a half-yearly basis. The table below shows the most recent period first; H2 figures are derived as the full year less the reported half year.

§ Derived as the reported full year less the reported first half. National Grid does not publish a separate second-half statement, and does not disclose a statutory half-year EPS on a basis directly comparable with the full year, so those cells are shown as unavailable.

Cash flow and balance sheet. Cash generated from continuing operations was £7,861m, up 12%. Net cash from continuing operating activities was £7,829m. Against that, purchases of intangibles, property, plant and equipment and investments net of disposals absorbed £10,601m, net interest paid £1,701m and cash dividends £1,623m. Depreciation and amortisation was £2,247m. At 31 March 2026 the group held cash and cash equivalents of £375m against long-term borrowings of £42,855m and current borrowings of £3,900m, with reported net debt of £44,160m. During the year the company raised £4.2bn of new long-term senior debt and signed £2.4bn of new undrawn loan facilities, and had £8.0bn of undrawn committed facilities available as at 13 May 2026.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

The centrepiece is the extended and upgraded five-year financial framework announced with the FY2026 results: at least £70bn of capital investment to 2030/31, of which roughly £31bn is earmarked for UK Electricity Transmission, £9bn for UK Electricity Distribution, £17bn for New York and £12bn for New England. Around two-thirds of that plan is already covered by agreed regulatory settlements and supply chain and delivery mechanisms have been secured for around three-quarters of it.

In the UK the build is dominated by the Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment programme. Spending in UK Electricity Transmission rose 46% to £4,372m in 2025/26, with offshore work on EGL4 and Sea Link and onshore reinforcement including North London Reinforcement, Yorkshire Green, Tilbury-Grain and Norwich-Tilbury. The company also invested in a new control room and SCADA system. Capitalised interest and interest on prepayments of £229m was £86m higher than the prior year, reflecting the volume of assets under construction.

In the United States the programme is about system reinforcement and grid modernisation rather than new corridors: Advanced Metering Infrastructure and fault location, isolation and service restoration technology in New England, and the Upstate Upgrade and Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act programmes in New York. National Grid also filed its Massachusetts Gas rate case proposal during the year and secured approval of its Niagara Mohawk rate case in New York.

8. Peer Comparison

9. Insider Activity

National Grid discloses dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibilities under Article 19 of the UK Market Abuse Regulation. Activity in 2026 has been routine plan-driven accumulation rather than discretionary buying or selling, and no member of the board has disclosed a material open-market disposal during the period reviewed. Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich, who took the CEO role on 17 November 2025, has not disclosed an open-market purchase or sale in the transactions reviewed below.

n/d = not disclosed in the individual line item of the relevant RNS notification. Monthly Share Incentive Plan purchases of this size are automatic salary-funded contributions and carry no directional signal.

10. Key Risks

• Regulatory reset risk: the entire earnings stream depends on allowed returns set by third parties. RIIO-T3 fixes the UK Electricity Transmission return at a 6.12% real cost of equity to March 2031, but UK Electricity Distribution, New York and New England each run to separate timetables and each reset can move allowed revenue in either direction.
• Funding and interest rate risk: net debt of £44,160m is guided to rise by just over £6bn in 2026/27 to fund around £13bn of investment. Higher refinancing costs feed directly into earnings, and FFO/adjusted net debt of 13.0% has fallen 70bps against a 10% rating threshold.
• Delivery and supply chain risk: the £70bn plan assumes the company can build at the pace and cost regulators have allowed. Supply chain and delivery mechanisms are secured for around three-quarters of the plan — the remaining quarter is not, and cost overruns above allowances are borne by shareholders.
• US rate case and FERC risk: New England underlying operating profit fell 6% in 2025/26, principally because of a FERC order on transmission owner returns on equity across the region relating mostly to historical years. The Massachusetts Gas rate case remains outstanding.
• Storm and operational risk: deferrable US storm costs are excluded from underlying results only above a $100m aggregate threshold. In 2024/25 that threshold was breached with $110m of costs; in 2025/26 $52m sat inside underlying results. A severe storm season transfers directly into reported earnings.
• Dilution risk: the weighted average share count rose from 4,707m to 4,946m following the 2025 rights issue, and the five-year framework assumes a long-run average scrip dividend uptake of 25% per annum. Asset growth of 10.9% translates into 8–10% guided per-share growth partly because of this.

11. Recent Developments

• 10 Jun 2026 — Routine PDMR notifications published. National Grid disclosed transactions relating to the maturity of its Sharesave plan, followed by Long Term Performance Plan awards granted on 17 June 2026 that vest on or after 18 June 2029.
• 3 Jun 2026 — Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2025/26 filed with the SEC. The filing confirmed statutory revenue of £17,687m, statutory operating profit of £5,431m, depreciation and amortisation of £2,247m and 33,026 employees at the year end.
• 14 May 2026 — FY2026 full year results and an upgraded five-year framework. Underlying EPS of 78.0p was up 8% at constant currency, statutory EPS of 65.5p up 9%, capital investment a record £11,576m, and the framework was extended to 2030/31 with at least £70bn of investment and 8–10% compound underlying EPS growth.
• 13 Apr 2026 — New US term loan signed. National Grid North America Inc. signed a new term loan facility of approximately £0.7bn equivalent, adding to the £4.2bn of new long-term senior debt raised during 2025/26.
• 1 Mar 2026 — RIIO-T3 accepted in full. The company accepted all of the price control arrangements proposed in Ofgem's Final Determination for UK Electricity Transmission covering April 2026 to March 2031, including a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing.
• 4 Dec 2025 — Ofgem published the RIIO-T3 Final Determination. The determination set the framework under which National Grid's largest UK investment programme will be remunerated for the following five years.
• 28 Nov 2025 — Sale of Grain LNG completed. The business was sold to a consortium of Centrica plc and Energy Capital Partners for net cash proceeds of £1,336m, following the completion of the sale of National Grid Renewables to Brookfield in May 2025 for net cash proceeds of £1,473m.
• 17 Nov 2025 — Zoë Yujnovich became Chief Executive. The former Shell Integrated Gas and Upstream Director succeeded John Pettigrew, who retired on 16 November 2025 after almost a decade leading the company.

12. Key Dates

• 23 Jul 2026 — 2025/26 final dividend of 32.14p per ordinary share paid to qualifying shareholders
• 05 Nov 2026 — 2026/27 Half Year Results, the next scheduled reporting event
• 19 Nov 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the 2026/27 interim dividend (ordinary shares)
• 20 Nov 2026 — Record date for the 2026/27 interim dividend
• 26 Nov 2026 — Scrip reference price announced for the 2026/27 interim dividend
• 10 Dec 2026 — Scrip election date for the 2026/27 interim dividend (ordinary shares, 5pm GMT)
• 12 Jan 2027 — 2026/27 interim dividend paid to qualifying shareholders
• Expected May 2027 — 2026/27 Full Year Results, the first full year under the RIIO-T3 price control

Discussion of National Grid and other UK utilities takes place in the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 12 July 2026

Xcel Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: XEL) is one of the largest regulated electric and natural gas utilities in the United States, serving customers across eight Western and Midwestern states through four operating subsidiaries: NSP-Minnesota, Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), Southwestern Public Service (SPS) and NSP-Wisconsin. The company is in the early stages of a $60 billion 2026–2030 capital programme aimed at grid expansion, renewables and a rapidly growing pipeline of data-centre load, while managing the aftermath of two major wildfire liabilities. This research covers the fundamentals, financial health, valuation and key dates — with no analyst opinions, just the facts from primary sources.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull Case / Bear Case

Bull Case

• A $60 billion regulated growth runway: Xcel's 2026–2030 base capital plan of $60bn (transmission $15.4bn, renewables $13.9bn, distribution $13.7bn) grows the rate base that drives regulated earnings, and management targets long-term annual EPS growth of 6–8%+ off the 2025 ongoing base of $3.80.
• Data-centre demand inflection: The company has announced a data-centre pipeline exceeding 20 GW, targets roughly 4–6 GW contracted by end-2027, signed Google for a new Minnesota data centre backed by 1,900 MW of new clean energy, and formed strategic alliances with GE Vernova and NextEra Energy to accelerate generation build-out.
• A 21-year record of delivering guidance: 2025 marked the 21st consecutive year Xcel delivered on its earnings guidance; 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 was reaffirmed with Q1 2026 results, implying roughly 8% growth at the midpoint.
• Wildfire legal overhang partially resolved: The Marshall Fire litigation settled for $640m with nearly all plaintiffs paid, and Smokehouse Creek estimated losses of $430m are largely settled against ~$500m of insurance coverage, reducing (though not eliminating) the tail risk that weighed on the stock.

Bear Case

• Deeply negative free cash flow: FY2025 operating cash flow of $4.1bn against $10.9bn of utility capex left FCF at roughly minus $6.8bn, meaning the growth plan depends on continuous debt issuance ($22.8bn planned 2026–2030) and ~$7bn of new equity, a persistent dilution and balance-sheet headwind.
• Rising debt and interest burden: Total debt reached $33.9bn at year-end 2025 (up from $29.1bn), interest charges rose $213m in 2025, guidance assumes another $300–310m increase in 2026, and Moody's holds a negative outlook on the holding company's Baa1 rating.
• Residual wildfire and litigation risk: The Texas Attorney General sued SPS in December 2025 over the Smokehouse Creek Fire seeking damages and civil penalties, and losses beyond the ~$500m insurance programme — or a future fire event — could be material.
• Regulatory disallowance risk: A Minnesota ALJ recommendation on Prairie Island replacement-power costs drove a $37m (4¢) charge in Q1 2026, and the company has large pending rate cases in Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and South Dakota where outcomes below requested ROEs would pressure earnings.

3. Business Segments

Xcel Energy reports revenue across electric, natural gas and other activities. FY2025 split from the year-end earnings report:

4. How They Make Money

Regulated returns on an expanding rate base. Nearly all of Xcel's profit comes from its four state-regulated utilities. Regulators allow the company to recover prudent costs and earn an authorised return on equity (recent requests around 9.8–10.75%) on the capital invested in grid, generation and gas infrastructure. The more it invests in rate base — and the more constructive the regulatory outcomes — the more it earns. Fuel and purchased power costs are largely passed through to customers, so commodity swings move revenue but have minimal earnings impact.

Riders, rate cases and sales growth. Growth comes from three levers: capital riders (2026 rider revenue is guided to rise $535–545m), periodic rate cases in each jurisdiction, and electric sales growth (weather-normalised retail electric sales are guided up ~3% in 2026, helped by data-centre and industrial load in the SPS and PSCo territories). In 2025, higher electric revenues added $1.27 per share year over year before offsetting costs.

Dividends funded by regulated earnings. The board targets a 45–55% payout ratio and 4–6% annual dividend growth; the quarterly dividend was raised to $0.59 in early 2026 ($2.36 annualised, ~2.9% yield at the current price).

5. Financial Health

All figures from Xcel Energy earnings releases and SEC XBRL company facts (10-K/10-Q filings). Revenue dipped in 2023–2024 mainly on lower recovered fuel costs (pass-through), then rose 9.1% in 2025 on riders, rate outcomes and sales growth. GAAP EPS in 2025 was depressed by the $290m+ non-recurring Marshall Wildfire settlement; ongoing EPS grew 8.6%.

¹ No ongoing-earnings adjustments were reported in 2021 or 2022; ongoing (adjusted) EPS equalled GAAP EPS. "Adjusted EPS" is Xcel's ongoing diluted EPS. Long-term debt is the noncurrent long-term debt (incl. finance leases) reported at each year end.

Quarterly figures (most recent first; adjusted = ongoing EPS):

Balance sheet at 31 December 2025: total debt $33,883m (long-term $31,832m, short-term $1,550m, current portion of long-term debt $501m), common equity $23,609m (59%/41% debt/equity capitalisation), cash and cash equivalents $274m. FY2025 operating cash flow was $4,083m against utility capital expenditure of $10,908m; depreciation and amortisation was $2,953m (income statement). The company plans to fund its $60bn 2026–2030 capex with ~$30.2bn cash from operations, ~$22.8bn new debt and ~$7bn equity issuance.

6. Valuation Snapshot

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

The 2026–2030 base capital plan totals $60bn: electric transmission $15.4bn, renewables $13.9bn, electric distribution $13.7bn, electric generation $9.5bn, natural gas $3.7bn and other $3.7bn — and management notes this excludes potential incremental generation from pending resource plans and future RFPs. Projects placed in service during 2025 include Phase 2 of the Sherco Solar facility, the Harrington coal-to-gas conversion and the first two segments of the Colorado Power Pathway transmission project.

On the demand side, Xcel is building for data centres: an announced pipeline exceeding 20 GW, a Google data centre in Pine Island, Minnesota backed by a 1,900 MW clean-energy package (1,400 MW wind, 200 MW solar, 300 MW long-duration storage including a Form Energy iron-air battery — the largest such project announced globally by energy capacity), and large-load tariff filings in four states designed to protect existing customers from cost shifts. Strategic alliances with GE Vernova (turbines and supply chain) and NextEra Energy (development) were announced alongside FY2025 results to secure equipment and speed up new generation. Resource solicitations are underway across jurisdictions, including a 3,500 MW NSP-system RFP and a Colorado near-term procurement of ~4,900 MW nameplate of wind, solar, gas and storage.

8. Competitive Landscape

Regulated utilities do not compete for retail customers within their franchised territories, but they compete for capital, data-centre load and regulatory goodwill. Peer set of large US regulated/diversified utilities:

Within this group Xcel (~$51.3bn market cap) is distinguished by its wind-heavy Upper Midwest footprint, an above-average data-centre pipeline relative to its size, and — less happily — the sector's most prominent recent wildfire liabilities outside California.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Bob Frenzel has served as chairman, president and CEO since 2021, having joined as CFO in 2016. Brian Van Abel is executive vice president and CFO. In February 2026 the company named Rob Cain senior vice president and chief technology officer. Recent Form 4 filings show routine equity-compensation activity by the CEO:

Note: these transactions are equity-compensation awards and related tax withholding rather than open-market trades; there has been no material insider open-market buying or selling by CEO Bob Frenzel or other executives reported in 2026 to date.

10. Risks

• Wildfire liability (Legal): The Texas Attorney General sued SPS in December 2025 over the Smokehouse Creek Fire seeking damages and civil penalties; recorded losses of $430m exclude potential penalties, punitive damages and government claims, and any amounts beyond the ~$500m annual insurance programme would hit earnings directly. A future ignition event in Xcel's dry-climate territories remains the structural tail risk.
• Regulatory outcome risk (Regulatory): Major pending rate cases (Minnesota electric ~$365m request, Colorado electric $356m and gas $190m, New Mexico $175m, South Dakota $44m) may be decided at lower ROEs or with disallowances, as the DOC's 9.25% ROE recommendation in Minnesota illustrates.
• Cost-recovery disallowance (Regulatory): The Prairie Island replacement-power proceeding produced a $37m Q1 2026 charge following an ALJ recommendation, showing that historical costs can be clawed back.
• Financing and dilution (Financial): Negative free cash flow means the plan relies on ~$22.8bn of new debt and ~$7bn of equity through 2030; 48.3m shares ($3.34bn) were already issued in 2025 and share count growth dilutes EPS if capex slips or returns lag.
• Interest-rate and credit risk (Financial): Interest charges rose $213m in 2025 and are guided up another $300–310m in 2026; Moody's rates the holding company Baa1 with a negative outlook, and any downgrade would raise the cost of the large ongoing debt programme.
• Execution risk on data-centre growth (Operational): The 20 GW pipeline requires new generation, transmission and supply-chain delivery on schedule; delays in RFPs, interconnection or equipment (turbines, transformers) could push revenue beyond the plan window.
• Weather and climate (Macro): Mild weather trimmed 2025 EPS by ~4¢ versus normal; storms, drought and extreme temperature swings affect sales, O&M costs and wildfire risk itself.

11. Recent Developments

• 30 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results: guidance reaffirmed. GAAP EPS of $0.89 (vs $0.84) and ongoing EPS of $0.91; revenue of $4.02bn, up 2.9% year over year. 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 was reaffirmed. The quarter absorbed a $37m (4¢) charge after an ALJ recommended disallowance of Prairie Island replacement-power costs.
• 26 Feb 2026 — Google data centre in Minnesota. Xcel announced it will power a new Google data centre in Pine Island, Minnesota, with a partnership bringing 1,900 MW of new clean energy including a 300 MW / 30 GWh Form Energy iron-air battery, the world's largest announced battery project by energy capacity.
• 05 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and strategic alliances. FY2025 GAAP EPS $3.42, ongoing EPS $3.80 (up 8.6%), the 21st straight year of delivering guidance. Alongside results, Xcel announced alliances with GE Vernova and NextEra Energy to support its 6 GW near-term data-centre outlook and generation expansion, plus a $60bn 2026–2030 capital plan.
• Dec 2025 — Texas AG lawsuit over Smokehouse Creek Fire. The Texas Attorney General's office sued SPS seeking monetary damages and civil penalties for property and wildlife losses from the 2024 fire — a new legal front after most private claims were settled.
• Sep 2025 — Marshall Fire settlement. Xcel and two telecom co-defendants agreed settlements requiring PSCo to pay $640m, resolving claims from the December 2021 Colorado fire; PSCo recognised $287m (Q3) and $12m (Q4) of charges after insurance. Nearly all plaintiffs have been paid.

12. Key Dates & What to Watch

• 30 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call.
• Expected Sep 2026 — Minnesota PUC decision on NSP-Minnesota's 2024 electric rate case (updated request ~$365m), guided for the third quarter of 2026.
• Expected Sep 2026 — Colorado PUC decisions and final rates in PSCo's electric ($356m) and natural gas ($190m) rate cases, both anticipated in the third quarter of 2026.
• Expected Oct 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration cycle; watch for continuation of the 4–6% annual dividend growth objective.
• Expected Dec 2026 — NSP-system 3,500 MW renewable RFP: bids received March 2026, MPUC approval filing expected by year-end; also watch the Colorado Phase II RFP launch in Q3 2026.
• TBC — rulings in the Texas Attorney General's Smokehouse Creek lawsuit against SPS; no trial date has been published.

Track XEL alongside the wider utility sector on our Live Charts, check upcoming macro events on the Economic Calendar, and discuss this research in the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 22 June 2026

Exelon Corporation is the largest regulated electricity and gas transmission-and-distribution (T&D) utility holding company in the United States, serving roughly 10.7 million customers across the mid-Atlantic and Midwest through six regulated subsidiaries. Since spinning off its competitive generation arm, Constellation Energy, in February 2022, Exelon has been a pure-play "wires" business: it owns the poles, lines, substations and pipes that deliver energy, and earns a regulated return on that infrastructure rather than betting on power prices. This research note examines Exelon's financial health, valuation, segments and risks using only its public filings and primary disclosures. For live pricing and technicals, see our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Pure-play regulated visibility: Post-Constellation, 100% of earnings come from rate-regulated T&D utilities, giving Exelon some of the most predictable, weather-and-commodity-insulated cash flows in the sector.
• Large, funded capital plan: Management is deploying a $41.7bn four-year capital programme that supports roughly 7.9% annual rate-base growth — the engine behind its 5–7% adjusted EPS growth target through 2029.
• Data-centre demand tailwind: Exelon's service territories (northern Illinois, the mid-Atlantic) sit in some of the fastest-growing data-centre load corridors, creating a multi-year pipeline of transmission and distribution investment.
• Consistent dividend: The board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.42 in early 2026 and targets dividend growth toward the lower end of its EPS-growth range, offering a yield near 3.7%.
• Constructive regulation: Recent rate orders at ComEd, PHI and BGE, plus Maryland's Utility RELIEF Act, have generally supported timely cost recovery.

Bear Case

• Negative free cash flow: Heavy capex ($8.5bn in FY2025) exceeds operating cash flow, so the build-out is funded by continuous debt and equity issuance — a structural feature of utilities but a real dilution and leverage risk.
• Rising rates and affordability politics: Higher customer bills invite regulatory and political pushback, which can slow recovery or compress allowed returns.
• Interest-rate sensitivity: With ~$49bn of debt and a capital-intensive model, higher-for-longer rates raise financing costs at the holding-company level.
• Limited upside surprise: A regulated wires business is engineered for steadiness, not outperformance; the 5–7% EPS algorithm caps realistic growth expectations.
• Regulatory lag: Earnings depend on the timing and outcome of multi-jurisdiction rate cases across Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Delaware and New Jersey.

3. Business Segments

Exelon operates through four reportable business units built from six regulated utilities. All revenue is regulated T&D — there is no merchant generation. The approximate share of 2025 utility net income is shown below.

4. Business Model & Strategy

Exelon makes money by investing capital into regulated energy-delivery infrastructure and earning an authorised rate of return on that "rate base." The more it prudently invests in poles, wires, substations, smart meters and pipes — and recovers through state and federal rate cases — the more its earnings base grows.

Rate-base growth as the core driver. Management's plan centres on a $41.7bn capital investment programme over 2026–2029, targeting roughly 7.9% annual rate-base growth. This translates directly into the company's 5–7% compound annual adjusted operating EPS growth target through 2029.

Grid modernisation and electrification. Spending is weighted toward reliability, grid hardening, storm resilience and accommodating new load — particularly the surge in data-centre and electrification demand across its territories. Exelon positions itself as the enabler of the energy transition rather than a taker of commodity risk.

Balance-sheet discipline. Because the model is cash-flow-negative after capex, funding strategy matters: Exelon relies on a mix of operating cash flow, long-term debt and equity (including at-the-market issuance) to fund growth while defending its credit ratings.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are drawn from Exelon's audited filings and SEC XBRL data (continuing operations following the February 2022 Constellation separation). Revenue and earnings reflect the regulated utility only.

*Constellation Energy was separated in February 2022; clean utility-only GAAP and adjusted EPS comparatives begin with FY2022. Dividend/share is the amount declared per calendar year.

Quarterly detail (most recent first):

FY2025 operating cash flow was $6.25bn against $8.53bn of capital expenditure, leaving free cash flow negative at roughly −$2.28bn — the expected signature of a utility in a heavy investment cycle, funded through debt and equity issuance. Depreciation & amortisation was $3.64bn and GAAP operating income was $5.15bn.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers

Exelon's growth is mechanical rather than cyclical: it comes from expanding the regulated rate base and recovering that investment through rate cases. The $41.7bn 2026–2029 capital plan underpins ~7.9% rate-base growth and the 5–7% adjusted EPS CAGR target through 2029.

The most important emerging driver is electricity-demand growth after two decades of flat load. Data-centre development, manufacturing reshoring and broad electrification are lifting projected load across ComEd and PHI territories, which supports incremental transmission and distribution spending. Constructive regulatory frameworks — including Maryland's Utility RELIEF Act, which adjusts cost-recovery rules for BGE, Pepco and Delmarva — help convert that investment into earnings with less lag.

8. Competitive Landscape

Exelon competes for capital against other large US regulated utilities. As a pure-play T&D operator it carries no merchant-generation risk, distinguishing it from more vertically integrated peers. Market caps below are as of mid-June 2026.

9. Insider & Institutional Activity

A review of Exelon's 2026 SEC Form 4 filings shows no material insider transactions — only routine equity-compensation activity such as restricted-stock vesting and tax-withholding share dispositions, rather than open-market purchases or sales of significant size. Chief Executive Calvin G. Butler Jr. and the other named officers and directors made no material open-market trades in the period reviewed. Exelon is predominantly institutionally owned, with major index and utility-focused funds among its largest holders. Verify the latest filings directly on SEC EDGAR.

10. Key Risks

• Regulatory risk: Earnings depend on rate-case outcomes and allowed returns across six jurisdictions (Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey); adverse orders or delays directly reduce recoverable earnings.
• Financing and interest-rate risk: With roughly $49bn of debt and persistent negative free cash flow, Exelon must continually raise capital; higher rates increase holding-company financing costs and can pressure credit metrics.
• Affordability and political risk: Rising customer bills create political pressure that can constrain rate increases or trigger unfavourable legislative intervention.
• Capital-execution risk: The 5–7% EPS algorithm assumes the $41.7bn capital plan is deployed on time and recovered; cost overruns or delays would undermine the growth thesis.
• Operational and weather risk: Storms, grid failures and reliability events carry restoration costs, potential penalties and reputational consequences.
• Equity-dilution risk: Ongoing equity issuance to fund growth can dilute per-share earnings if not matched by rate-base returns.

11. Recent Developments

• 06 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Exelon reported GAAP EPS of $0.90 and adjusted operating EPS of $0.91 on revenue of $7.24bn, and reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81–$2.91.
• 28 Apr 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, payable 15 June 2026 to holders of record on 4 June 2026.
• 12 Feb 2026 — Full-year 2025 results. Exelon reported FY2025 GAAP EPS of $2.73 and adjusted operating EPS of $2.77, initiated 2026 guidance of $2.81–$2.91, and outlined a $41.7bn four-year capital plan supporting ~7.9% rate-base growth and a 5–7% EPS CAGR through 2029.
• 18 Mar 2026 — Executive compensation disclosed. A proxy filing showed CEO Calvin Butler's 2025 compensation at approximately $15.6m, up about 6% year on year.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 04 Jun 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the $0.42 quarterly dividend (already passed; included for reference)
• 15 Jun 2026 — Q2 2026 dividend payment date
• 05 Aug 2026 — Expected Q2 2026 earnings release (date to be confirmed; based on prior-year timing)
• 04 Nov 2026 — Expected Q3 2026 earnings release (date to be confirmed; based on prior-year timing)

For the broader macro backdrop affecting utilities and rates, see our Economic Calendar, and join the discussion on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026

The Southern Company (NYSE: SO) is a regulated electric and gas utility holding company in the US Southeast. It owns Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Mississippi Power, the wholesale generator Southern Power, and the Southern Company Gas distribution businesses. Data-centre demand now drives the story: about 17 GW of large-load capacity is contracted, an $81bn 2026–2030 capital plan is under way, and management expects 2026 adjusted EPS at or near the top of guidance. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Contracted large-load surge: About 17 GW of large-load capacity was contracted at the Q2 2026 call, 6 GW of it added since Q1, with a prospective pipeline of 75 GW or more.
• Customer-funded growth contracts: Georgia Power’s approved 3.2 GW, 25-year OpenAI contract has OpenAI paying the full cost to serve, and the company projects about $950m a year of customer savings from 2029.
• Earnings running ahead: H1 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.46 against $2.15. Management guides to 8–9% adjusted EPS growth through 2028, based on a 2028 range of $5.25–$5.45.
• Nuclear franchise: Southern operates eight nuclear units. Google will fund about 96 MW of uprates at Plants Vogtle and Hatch under a new NU-1 tariff, pending Georgia PSC approval.
• Low-cost federal financing: Up to $26.5bn of DOE loan guarantees, priced at Treasury plus 37.5bp, support the build-out with about $7bn of projected customer savings.

Bear Case

• Negative free cash flow: Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $10.65bn fell short of $13.92bn of capital expenditure to 30 Jun 2026, a gap of about $3.27bn.
• Rising debt and dilution: Total debt was about $75.6bn at 30 Jun 2026. Funding uses convertible notes ($2.73bn priced on 03 Aug 2026), equity units and an ATM programme of up to 50m shares.
• Political and regulatory shifts: Two Georgia PSC seats are up for election on 03 Nov 2026 on a 3–2 commission, and base rates are frozen in Georgia through 2028 and in Alabama through 2027.
• Cyber-breach fallout: An Oct 2026 breach of the customer portal affected about 400,000 electric customers, and law firms are investigating claims.
• Credit pressure: Moody’s has had a Negative outlook on the parent since Sep 2025. The 10-K says operating cash flow is not expected to cover capex, dividends and maturities in 2026–2028.

3. Business Segments

Percentages use FY2025 consolidated operating revenues of $29,553m from the FY2025 10-K segment note.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. About 95% of planned capital goes to state-regulated utilities. These utilities earn a commission-authorised return on rate base and recover prudent costs through customer rates. Southern Power adds contracted wholesale margins, and it has re-contracted 1 GW of gas capacity since 2023 at two to three times historical pricing.

Rate-base economics. Management projects about 9% rate-base growth and about 10% electric sales growth from 2026 to 2030, funded by an $81bn capital plan ($68bn state-regulated electric, $9bn gas). Large-load contracts run at least 15 years, with minimum bills covering at least 100% of incremental cost, plus termination payments and collateral.

Moat. Southern holds franchised monopoly territories in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, eight operated nuclear units (including the completed Vogtle 3 and 4), which supplied about 36% of Georgia Power’s 2025 generation, and an established gas distribution footprint. Together these give it scale and regulatory barriers to entry.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from Southern’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end. Dividends are paid per share.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Q2 2026 net income was $1,174m, against $880m a year earlier. Adjusted results exclude $143m pre-tax of accelerated depreciation on Southern Power wind repowering and an $8m Nicor Gas disallowance. Weather-adjusted retail sales grew 2.3%, and commercial sales grew 7.4%. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, revenue was $30,178m, diluted GAAP EPS $4.15 and adjusted EPS $4.60.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $9.80bn in FY2025; $10.65bn on a trailing-twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026.
• Capital expenditure: $12.74bn in FY2025; $13.92bn trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation, amortisation & accretion (cash-flow statement): $6.03bn in FY2025; $6.35bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: non-current long-term debt $68,756m, current maturities $4,694m and short-term borrowings $2,132m.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: $2,984m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Southern has about 10 GW of company-owned resources under construction and more than 500 miles of new transmission lines.

• Gas generation: Yates Units 8–10 combustion turbines (441 MW and 882 MW) and combined-cycle units at Wansley (Units 10–11, 777 MW each), Bowen (Units 7–8, 780 MW each) and McIntosh (Unit 12, 797 MW). The Georgia PSC certified 9,885 MW on 19 Dec 2025.
• Storage: Battery sites are planned in phases across 2026–2030. The 128 MW Robins battery reached commercial operation on 15 Sep 2026, and Alabama Power’s Clearview Ranch project (200 MW solar plus a 200 MW battery) is certificated.
• Nuclear: The Vogtle 1&2 extended uprate is approved, the Hatch extended uprate has been requested, and Google is funding about 96 MW of uprates.
• Southern Power: Up to 700 MW of gas-fleet uprates from as early as 2029, and six brownfield gas sites under evaluation.
• Large loads: More than 1.2 GW of data-centre load is already on the system, and data-centre usage rose 55% year on year in Q2 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Southern competes for capital with other large US regulated utilities. Market caps are at the 14 Oct 2026 close. Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Chris Womack is Chairman, President and CEO, and no succession has been announced. David P. Poroch is CFO. Womack made no open-market transactions in 2026; his last reported sale was on 03 Mar 2025. Form 4 filings in 2026 show only open-market sales by other officers, with no purchases. Comptroller Matthew M. Kim also sold 100 shares on the first trading day of each month from May to Oct 2026. None of the Form 4s reviewed carries a 10b5-1 footnote.

10. Key Risks

• Large-load demand concentration (Operational): Much of the growth case rests on data centres, a single industry. The 10-K warns that contract protections “may not fully protect” the utilities if projected demand fails to materialise. Georgia Power has also committed to at least $556m a year of levelised downward rate pressure in 2029–2031.
• Regulatory & political (Regulatory): The 03 Nov 2026 Georgia PSC election could change control of a 3–2 commission. Georgia Power base rates are frozen through 2028. In Alabama, rates are frozen through 2027, and the Apr 2026 Power to the People Act bars base-rate increases before 2029. The Nicor Gas disallowance shows how recovery can be refused.
• Financing, credit & dilution (Financial): Operating cash flow is not expected to cover capex, dividends and maturities in 2026–2028. A downgrade to BB+/Ba1 could trigger up to $3,723m of collateral calls (at 30 Jun 2026). Continued equity, convertible and hybrid issuance dilutes shareholders.
• Construction & cost (Operational): Building about 10 GW of new resources exposes Southern to tariffs, inflation, prudence disallowances and changes to tax-credit eligibility.
• Cyber security (Operational): This risk materialised with the Oct 2026 customer-portal breach affecting about 400,000 customers. Possible claims are under investigation.
• Storms & environmental (Macro): Hurricane Helene cost Georgia Power about $880m, and Hurricane Isaias costs are not yet disclosed. Coal-ash closure spending is about $3.3bn over 2026–2030, and the Plant Barry litigation was revived on 18 May 2026.

11. Recent Developments

• 14 Oct 2026 — Data-breach claims investigated. Law firms, including Ademi LLP, announced investigations into claims over the customer-portal breach at Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Mississippi Power.
• 10 Oct 2026 — Hurricane Isaias restoration. After a Category 2 landfall near Destin, Florida, the operating companies had restored about 420,000 customers by the evening, with about 80,000 still out. More than 6,400 outside workers were brought in.
• 05 Oct 2026 — Customer portal breach. An unauthorised party accessed the online customer portal, affecting about 400,000 electric customers. Exposed data included names, addresses, emails and the last four digits of Social Security or tax ID numbers; no full SSNs or bank or card data were taken.
• 25 Sep 2026 — Q3 date set. Southern confirmed it will release Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026.
• 21 Sep 2026 — Google nuclear uprate agreement. Google will support about 96 MW of uprates at Plants Vogtle and Hatch under a new NU-1 tariff. Georgia Power projects about $900m of customer benefits, and the deal is pending PSC approval.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Robins battery online. Georgia Power’s 128 MW Robins battery storage facility reached commercial operation.
• 10 Sep 2026 — Solar contracts approved. Georgia Power received approval for 1,137 MW of new solar power purchase agreements under its CARES program.
• 26 Aug 2026 — OpenAI contract approved. Georgia Power’s 3.2 GW, 25-year contract for OpenAI’s Effingham County site was approved. OpenAI pays the full cost to serve and commits up to 1 GW of flexible demand.
• 03 Aug 2026 — Convertible notes priced. Southern priced $833.75m of 2.125% notes due 2027 and $1,897.5m of 3.50% notes due 2029, and used part of the proceeds to repurchase 4.50% converts due 2027.
• 30 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.13 (GAAP $1.03) on revenue of $6,977m. The six-month adjusted EPS of $2.46 compared with $2.15 a year earlier.

12. Key Dates

• Expected Oct 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration (the equivalent dividend was declared on 20 Oct 2025)
• 03 Nov 2026 — Georgia Public Service Commission election for two seats
• 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (release by 7:30am ET, call 1pm ET)
• 01 Dec 2026 — Georgia PSC runoff date, if required
• Expected Dec 2026 — company-owned project selections in Georgia Power’s all-source RFP (by year end)
• 15 Dec 2027 — maturity of the 2.125% convertible notes

No date has been set for the Georgia PSC decisions on the Google NU-1 tariff and the Hatch extended uprate.

Explore more on ChartsView: Live Charts, the Economic Calendar, and join the discussion on the Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 14 Oct 2026

NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) owns Florida Power & Light (FPL), Florida's rate-regulated electric utility, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), one of the world's largest developers of wind, solar and battery storage. FY2025 operating revenues were $27.4 billion and adjusted EPS was $3.71. In Q2 2026 adjusted EPS rose 9.5% to $1.15 and NEER added 3.6 GW to a renewables and storage backlog of about 35 GW. The biggest change since our last update is the pending all-stock merger with Dominion Energy, announced on 18 May 2026 and approved by both sets of shareholders on 3 Sep 2026; it is now in regulatory review with closing expected in the second half of 2027. Track the share price on our Live Charts.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Visible earnings growth targets: Management guides 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.92 to $4.02 (targeting the high end) and adjusted EPS growth of 8% or more a year through 2032 off the 2025 base of $3.71, rising to 9% or more for the combined company with Dominion.
• Record development pipeline: NEER added a record 4 GW to its backlog in Q1 2026 and 3.6 GW in Q2 2026, taking it to about 35.1 GW after projects placed in service.
• Data center and large-load demand: FPL reports about 21 GW of large-load interest, 12 GW in advanced discussions, and NEER has contracts with Google and Meta plus the 6.47 GW Project Star gas campus in Texas announced on 30 Sep 2026.
• Regulated growth in Florida: FPL's four-year rate settlement (2026 to 2029) includes base-rate increases of $945m from 2026 and $705m from 2027 at a 10.95% authorised ROE, and FPL plans $90bn to $100bn of investment through 2032.
• Nuclear restart backed by federal loan: The DOE closed a loan of up to $1.9bn on 8 Sep 2026 to restart the 615 MW Duane Arnold plant, contracted to Google, by Q1 2029 at the latest.

Bear Case

• Merger approval risk: The Dominion deal needs Virginia, South Carolina, FERC and NRC approvals; at the 9 Oct 2026 Virginia hearing many local officials asked for denial or tougher conditions, and NEE has already enlarged its Virginia benefits package.
• Heavy and rising debt: Total debt rose to about $110.2bn at 30 Jun 2026 from about $95.6bn at year-end 2025, and operating cash flow of $12.5bn in 2025 covered only about half of capital expenditure.
• Share dilution ahead: About 716m new NEE shares would be issued to Dominion holders, and $2.3bn of equity units issued in March 2026 convert to common stock by February 2029.
• Tax-credit cliff for renewables: Under the 2025 federal tax law, wind and solar projects keep full credits only if construction began before 5 Jul 2026 or they enter service by the end of 2027.
• Weather exposure: Hurricane Isaias hit FPL's territory in October 2026, leaving about 332,000 customers without power on 10 Oct, and storm costs must be recovered through regulators.

3. Products & Segments

NextEra reports two principal segments plus Corporate and Other. FPL is a rate-regulated utility in Florida that added more than 90,000 customers in the year to Q2 2026; NEER develops, owns and operates generation and storage across the US and sells power under long-term contracts.

Mix is based on Q2 2026 operating revenues of $7,534m from the Q2 2026 earnings release. NEER revenue includes non-qualifying hedge gains and losses, which make segment shares vary from quarter to quarter.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. FPL earns a regulated return on the capital it invests in its grid and power plants, set by the Florida Public Service Commission. NEER builds renewables, storage, gas and nuclear assets and sells their output under long-term contracts to utilities and large corporate buyers. In FY2025 FPL earned $5.0bn of net income ($2.42 per share) and NEER $3.5bn of adjusted earnings ($1.70 per share).

Why scale matters. NextEra had about 80 GW of net generation and storage capacity at year-end 2025. Its size gives it purchasing power with equipment suppliers, a large land and interconnection pipeline, and the balance sheet to originate around 13.5 GW of new backlog in a single year.

Where the moat lies and its limits. The advantages are FPL's constructive regulatory framework and low-cost generation fleet, and NEER's development platform. The limits are capital intensity and policy: the business needs continual access to debt and equity markets, and federal tax-credit changes, interest rates and regulators' affordability concerns all affect returns.

5. Financial Health

NextEra reports on a calendar year. Revenue is total operating revenues. Figures are from NextEra's earnings releases, 10-K and 10-Q filings and SEC XBRL data.

Adjusted EPS is NextEra's adjusted earnings per share, which excludes non-qualifying hedge activity, XPLR-related items, impairments and other items. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet line and excludes the current portion ($3,500m at year-end 2025), commercial paper and other short-term debt. FY2023 revenue was lifted by non-qualifying hedge gains, which explains the swing between 2023 and 2024.

Quarterly trend, most recent quarter first:

Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 cash flow from operations was $12,485m against capital expenditure of about $24.6bn (FPL $8,719m, NEER independent power and other investments $15,332m, nuclear fuel $553m). Depreciation and amortisation was $6,580m and operating income $8,280m. At 30 Jun 2026 NextEra had long-term debt of $98,790m, current portion of long-term debt of $5,413m, commercial paper of $1,736m and other short-term debt of $4,258m (total about $110.2bn), cash of $2,866m and common shareholders' equity of $57,126m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Renewables and storage backlog. NEER's backlog stood at about 35.1 GW after Q2 2026, following about 13.5 GW of additions in 2025 and 7.6 GW in the first half of 2026. At the Wolfe Research conference on 1 Oct 2026 management flagged a further 6 GW to 11 GW battery storage opportunity at federal hubs that is not in current financial expectations.

Gas generation for new load. The US Commerce Department selected NEER in Q1 2026 to build 9.5 GW of gas generation in Texas and Pennsylvania tied to Japan's US investment commitment. On 30 Sep 2026 NextEra and Related Companies announced Project Star, a $22.3bn campus in Encinal, Texas with 6.47 GW of gas generation serving an adjacent 5 GW data center campus.

Nuclear. NEER became sole owner of the Duane Arnold plant in Iowa in Q2 2026 and closed a DOE loan of up to $1.9bn on 8 Sep 2026 to restart it by Q1 2029 at the latest, with output contracted to Google.

Transmission and FPL. A 137-mile 345-kV line in New Mexico was energised in Q2 2026, GridLiance West broke ground on a Nevada upgrade on 9 Sep 2026, and FPL's ten-year plan includes more than 12 GW of solar, more than 7 GW of storage and about 4 GW of new gas.

Dominion combination. The merger would add Dominion's regulated utilities in Virginia and the Carolinas; management targets about 11% annual growth in regulatory capital employed for the combined company through 2032.

8. Peer Comparison

9. Insider Activity

Form 4 filings for 2026 show option exercises and sales by executives, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans, and no open-market purchases; no Form 4 trades were found after March 2026. Chairman and CEO John Ketchum exercised and sold 99,603 options on 9 Feb 2026 and held 305,933 shares directly afterwards.

10. Key Risks

• Merger regulation and execution: Approvals could be withheld, delayed or come with costly conditions; NEE has already committed $2.25bn of bill credits and extended Virginia commitments, and the business is restricted in some actions while the deal is pending.
• Interest rates and capital access: With about $110bn of debt and negative free cash flow, NextEra depends on debt and equity markets and on keeping its credit ratings; higher rates raise financing costs, which already cut NEER's 2025 results by about $0.17 per share.
• Federal tax-credit changes: The 2025 federal tax law phases out wind and solar credits for later projects and adds foreign-entity sourcing rules, which could slow or reprice part of the NEER backlog.
• Florida regulation and affordability: FPL's returns depend on the 2025 rate settlement, which opponents said they would appeal to the Florida Supreme Court, and on recovering storm costs.
• Hurricanes and severe weather: Storms such as Hurricane Isaias in October 2026 damage FPL's network and raise restoration costs and customer bills.
• Dilution: About 716m shares for the Dominion merger and the 2026 equity units would increase the share count materially.

11. Recent Developments

• 09 Oct 2026 — Virginia merger hearing. At a Virginia State Corporation Commission local hearing, officials and residents raised concerns about rates, data centers and competition, and many asked for the merger to be denied or conditioned.
• 07 Oct 2026 — Hurricane Isaias response. FPL activated its emergency plan and mobilised about 12,000 personnel; after landfall near Destin on 9 Oct, about 332,000 FPL customers were without power on 10 Oct as restoration continued.
• 06 Oct 2026 — Derivative suit settlement. NextEra published notice of a proposed settlement of shareholder derivative actions under which insurers would pay $15.5m to the company and governance reforms would be adopted.
• 30 Sep 2026 — Project Star announced. The US Commerce Department and South Korea announced investment in a $22.3bn energy campus in Encinal, Texas, jointly developed by Related Companies and NextEra, with 6.47 GW of gas generation.
• 14 Sep 2026 — Expanded Virginia benefits. NextEra and Dominion extended the residential bill credit to four years ($480 per customer), added $100m to bill assistance and committed 1,000 new Virginia jobs.
• 08 Sep 2026 — Duane Arnold loan closed. The DOE closed a loan of up to $1.9bn to restart the 615 MW Iowa nuclear plant by Q1 2029 at the latest.
• 03 Sep 2026 — Shareholders approve merger. NextEra and Dominion shareholders approved the merger at special meetings, leaving regulatory approvals as the remaining conditions.

12. Key Dates & Catalysts

• 21 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results before the NYSE open, webcast at 9:00 a.m. ET (per NextEra's 7 Oct 2026 announcement).
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q4 dividend declaration; in 2025 it was declared on 23 Oct with payment on 15 Dec.
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results, and an update on 2027 guidance and dividend growth (6% a year targeted from year-end 2026 to 2028).
• Expected Jan 2027 — Approximate end of Virginia's six-month statutory review of the Dominion merger, which was filed on 15 Jul 2026.
• Expected Dec 2027 — Dominion merger closing, guided for the second half of 2027 subject to approvals.
• 15 Feb 2029 — Settlement date for the 2026 equity units, when holders must buy NEE common stock.

Also worth watching: FPL storm-cost recovery after Hurricane Isaias, quarterly NEER backlog additions and any large-load agreements under FPL's tariff. Check our Economic Calendar for interest-rate decisions that affect utility valuations, and discuss the stock on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) is one of the largest regulated utilities in the United States, serving about 8.7 million electric customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky, plus about 1.6 million natural-gas customers. The investment story is a record $103bn 2026–2030 capital plan driven by data-centre and industrial load, now backed by newly approved large-load tariff protections in the Carolinas. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record, demand-backed capital plan: The $103bn 2026–2030 plan, raised by $16bn in Feb 2026, is described by management as driving 9.6% earnings-base growth, with a further $5–10bn of large-load upside identified on the Q2 2026 call.
• Contracted data-centre load: Duke reports 7.8 GW of signed data-centre electric service agreements and a ~15.4 GW late-stage pipeline that it targets converting to agreements by H1 2027.
• Large-load protections now in place: FERC approved the Duke Energy Carolinas large-load transmission tariff on 09 Oct 2026, and a North Carolina settlement signed with Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft requires upfront payments and deposits from customers of 50 MW or more.
• Earnings momentum: H1 2026 adjusted EPS was $3.36 against $3.00 a year earlier, 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 was reaffirmed, and management expects to earn in the top half of its 5–7% growth range from 2028.
• A century of dividends: 2026 is Duke’s 100th consecutive year of quarterly cash dividends, and the payout was raised to $1.085 per quarter in Jul 2026.

Bear Case

• Negative free cash flow: Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $11.56bn fell well short of $15.84bn of capital expenditure to 30 Jun 2026, a free cash flow gap of about $4.27bn.
• Heavy and rising debt: Total debt was about $91.2bn at 30 Jun 2026, and non-current long-term debt has climbed from $60.4bn at the end of 2021 to $82.2bn.
• Equity dilution: Funding relies partly on a $6bn at-the-market programme set up in Mar 2026 and $1.75bn of mandatory equity units priced on 11 Aug 2026.
• Affordability politics: The North Carolina Attorney General declined to sign the Duke Energy Progress rate settlement and filed for a 7.4% ROE against the 9.8% agreed in the Duke Energy Carolinas settlement.
• Storm exposure: Hurricane Isaias (Oct 2026), an Aug 2026 Cincinnati derecho and Q1 2026 storms show how weather can add unplanned costs and earnings drag.

3. Business Segments

Duke reports two reportable segments plus Other. Percentages use FY2025 total operating revenues of $32,237m from the Q4 2025 earnings release.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Duke earns a regulated return on the capital it invests in generation, transmission, distribution and gas networks. State commissions and FERC set rates that recover prudent operating costs plus an authorised return on rate base, so earnings grow as the rate base grows. The pending Duke Energy Carolinas settlement, for example, sets a 9.8% ROE on a 53% equity ratio.

Rate-base economics. Management links its $103bn plan to 9.6% annual earnings-base growth and a 5–7% adjusted EPS growth target through 2030. Asset recycling helps fund the plan: Brookfield is buying a 19.7% stake in Duke Energy Florida for $6bn in tranches, and the Tennessee gas sale raised $2.48bn.

Moat. Duke holds franchised monopoly service territories covering about 90,000 square miles and around 27 million people. Essential-service demand, long-lived assets and regulatory barriers to entry give it unusually visible cash flows. The 01 Jan 2027 merger of Duke Energy Progress into Duke Energy Carolinas will create a single, larger Carolinas utility.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from Duke’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

† FY2021 revenue and adjusted EPS are shown as recast in the Feb 2023 release after Commercial Renewables moved to discontinued operations. As originally reported they were $25,097m and $5.24. FY2021 YoY uses the recast FY2020 revenue of $23,366m. FY2022 GAAP EPS is the restated $3.17; $3.33 was originally reported. Dividends are declared per share.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Q2 2026 GAAP EPS included a $0.05 per share charge for the Duke Energy Carolinas North Carolina rate-case settlement. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, revenue was $33,250m, GAAP EPS $6.66 and adjusted EPS $6.67.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $12.33bn in FY2025; $11.56bn on a trailing-twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026.
• Capital expenditure: $14.02bn in FY2025; $15.84bn trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation & amortisation (cash-flow statement): $7.70bn in FY2025; $7.75bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: non-current long-term debt $82,242m, current maturities $6,666m and short-term borrowings $2,330m.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: $673m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Duke’s build-out centres on the $103bn 2026–2030 capital plan, which management says means spending more than $1bn a month.

• Generation: About 14 GW of incremental generation over five years. That includes about 5 GW of gas generation under construction and 2.5 GW in development, backed by 26 reserved GE Vernova turbines, and about 4.5 GW of batteries through 2031.
• Nuclear: An Early Site Permit application for a Stokes County, North Carolina site; about 300 MW of uprates on the existing fleet; and licence extensions to 80 years. Management says it will not propose new nuclear without cost-overrun protections.
• Large loads: 7.8 GW of signed data-centre agreements and about 5.2 GW of data centres under construction, mostly in Florida and Indiana.
• Grid: Storm hardening in Florida, a $50m DOE grid-capacity award in the Carolinas (24 Sep 2026), and a 2026 Carolinas Resource Plan filed on 14 Aug 2026 that combines gas, storage, solar and nuclear.

8. Competitive Landscape

Duke competes for capital with other large US regulated utilities. Market caps are at the 14 Oct 2026 close. Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Harry K. Sideris has been President and CEO since 01 Apr 2025, succeeding Lynn Good. Brian Savoy is EVP and CFO, and Theodore F. Craver Jr. is the independent Chair. Form 4 filings show only open-market sales by executives in 2026, with no open-market purchases. After his May sale, Sideris held 96,102 shares directly. The Sideris and Savoy filings carry no 10b5-1 plan footnote.

10. Key Risks

• Financing & leverage (Financial): Total debt is about $91.2bn and trailing free cash flow about −$4.27bn. Meeting the 14.5% (2026) and 15% (long-term) FFO/debt targets depends on the ATM programme, the equity units and the remaining Brookfield tranches. Credit ratings are Baa2 (Moody’s) and BBB+ (S&P).
• Rate-case outcomes (Regulatory): The North Carolina Utilities Commission has yet to rule on the Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress cases, with new rates targeted for 01 Jan 2027. The Attorney General opposes the Progress settlement.
• Large-load concentration (Operational): The 10-K warns that load growth could fall short, “particularly if usage of electricity by data centers is less than currently projected”, leaving stranded-cost risk.
• Construction & execution (Operational): Delivering about 14 GW of new generation, including about 5 GW of gas under construction, carries supply-chain, permitting and cost-overrun risk.
• Weather & catastrophe (Macro): Hurricane Isaias in Oct 2026, the Aug 2026 Cincinnati derecho and Q1 2026 storms show the earnings and cost exposure. Storm-cost estimates for Isaias have not been disclosed.
• Environmental & nuclear liabilities (Regulatory): Coal-ash closure costs under the North Carolina Coal Ash Act and federal CCR rules, and nuclear operating and decommissioning obligations, remain uncertain.

11. Recent Developments

• 14 Oct 2026 — Attorney General backs large-load tariff. North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson called the data-centre tariff settlement a “massive step forward”, while continuing to press Duke for more transparency.
• 10 Oct 2026 — Hurricane Isaias restoration. Duke Energy Florida was finishing restoration with about 2,200 customers still out. In the Carolinas, the storm’s remnants caused more than 10,000 outages.
• 09 Oct 2026 — FERC approves Carolinas large-load tariff. On a 4–1 vote, FERC approved a transmission tariff requiring large loads to pay a committed revenue contribution of 75% of scheduled MW for 15 years.
• 07 Oct 2026 — North Carolina large-load settlement. Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress settled with the Public Staff, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and the U.S. Department of Defense. Customers of 50 MW or more will pay upfront for dedicated facilities. A Commission decision is expected by mid-November.
• 06 Oct 2026 — Q3 date set. Duke confirmed it will release Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026.
• 01 Oct 2026 — Dividend declared. A quarterly dividend of $1.085 per share was declared, payable on 16 Dec 2026.
• 24 Sep 2026 — DOE grid award. The U.S. Department of Energy selected Duke for $50m of grid-capacity and reliability funding in the Carolinas.
• 11 Aug 2026 — Equity units priced. Duke priced 35m equity units ($1.75bn) carrying 7.75% total distributions, with mandatory purchase of common stock by 01 Aug 2029.
• 04 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.43 (GAAP $1.38) against $1.25 a year earlier. Revenue was $7,592m, and 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 was reaffirmed.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Dividend raised. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.085 from $1.065.

12. Key Dates

• 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (release 7am ET, call 10am ET)
• 13 Nov 2026 — ex-dividend and record date for the $1.085 quarterly dividend
• Expected Nov 2026 — North Carolina Utilities Commission decision on the large-load settlement (expected by mid-November) and orders on the Carolinas rate cases
• 16 Dec 2026 — quarterly dividend payment date
• 31 Dec 2026 — deadline for the $200m Brookfield tranche for Duke Energy Florida
• 01 Jan 2027 — Duke Energy Progress merges into Duke Energy Carolinas; target date for new North Carolina rates

Remaining Brookfield tranches are due by 30 Jun 2027 ($500m), 31 Dec 2027 ($1.5bn) and 30 Jun 2028 ($1bn).

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