Last Updated: 20 Jul 2026
National Grid plc is the regulated electricity and gas network operator that owns and runs the high-voltage transmission system in England and Wales, the distribution network across the Midlands, the South West and Wales, and regulated electricity and gas utilities in New York and New England. It does not generate power and, since the disposal of its last non-core assets in 2025, it does not sell energy to households either. Its revenue is set by regulators — Ofgem in the UK, and state public service commissions plus FERC in the United States — against an approved asset base and an allowed return. In the year to 31 March 2026 it invested a record £11,576m of capital, grew its asset base 10.9%, and set out a five-year plan to spend at least £70bn to 2030/31. This report sets out the figures the company itself has published, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | National Grid plc |
| Ticker / Exchange | NG. (London Stock Exchange); NGG (NYSE ADR) |
| Sector | Utilities — regulated electricity and gas networks |
| Revenue (FY2025/26, statutory, continuing operations) | £17,687m |
| Statutory operating profit (FY2025/26) | £5,431m |
| Statutory earnings (FY2025/26) | £3,241m (statutory EPS 65.5p) |
| Underlying EPS (FY2025/26) | 78.0p, up 8% at constant currency |
| Dividend per share (FY2025/26) | 48.49p, up 3.8% |
| Net debt (31 Mar 2026) | £44,160m |
| Capital investment (FY2025/26) | £11,576m, up 18% |
| CEO / Leadership | Zoë Yujnovich, Chief Executive since 17 November 2025 (succeeded John Pettigrew); Andy Agg, Chief Financial Officer |
| Employees | 33,026 (at 31 March 2026) |
| Financial year end | 31 March |
| Credit rating (group senior unsecured) | Baa2 / BBB / BBB (Moody's / S&P / Fitch) |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- A regulated asset base compounding at double digits: asset growth was 10.9% in 2025/26 and regulated asset growth 11.7%, with UK RAV up 12.8% to £36,986m and the US rate base up 10.3% to £29,452m. Earnings in this model follow the asset base rather than the weather or the commodity cycle.
- Regulatory clarity is now unusually high: National Grid accepted Ofgem's RIIO-T3 Final Determination on 1 March 2026, covering April 2026 to March 2031 with a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% notional gearing. Around two-thirds of the at least £70bn investment plan is now covered by agreed regulatory settlements.
- Management has guided to a step-up in earnings, not just spending: the company expects underlying EPS growth of 13–15% in 2026/27 from the 78.0p baseline, and a compound 8–10% underlying EPS growth rate across the five-year framework to 2030/31.
- The portfolio is now almost entirely regulated: the disposals of National Grid Renewables and Grain LNG completed during 2025/26 for £2,809m of net cash proceeds, removing the merchant and development exposure that previously sat inside National Grid Ventures.
- An inflation-linked, well-covered dividend: the 48.49p full-year dividend is covered approximately 1.6x by underlying earnings, the policy is to grow with UK CPIH, and the company held £17.0bn of distributable reserves at 31 March 2026 — more than five years of forecast group dividends.
Bear Case
- Free cash flow is deeply negative and will stay that way: cash generated from continuing operations of £7,829m was far below cash investment, giving a business net cash outflow of £2,635m before interest, tax and dividends. Group capital investment is guided to around £13bn in 2026/27.
- Net debt is rising fast: net debt reached £44,160m at 31 March 2026, up £2,789m in the year even after £2.8bn of disposal proceeds, and management expects it to increase by just over £6bn again in 2026/27, taking regulatory gearing to around 64%.
- Credit metrics are trending the wrong way: FFO/adjusted net debt fell 70bps to 13.0% and RCF/adjusted net debt fell 50bps to 9.3%, against Moody's RCF threshold of 7% and S&P and Moody's FFO thresholds of 10%.
- Statutory earnings sit well below the headline measure: statutory EPS of 65.5p compares with underlying EPS of 78.0p, a gap created by timing under-recoveries of £636m and £499m of excluded UK deferred tax. The company's preferred metric is not the one that reaches the income statement.
3. Business Segments
National Grid reports five continuing operating segments. The percentages below are calculated against statutory gross revenue of £17,687m for the year to 31 March 2026; segment revenues are stated before intra-group eliminations and therefore sum to slightly more than 100%.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 43.1% (£7,618m) | Regulated electricity and gas distribution and transmission in upstate New York and metropolitan New York, principally through Niagara Mohawk, KeySpan and Brooklyn Union. Underlying operating profit £1,709m, up 18%. |
| New England | 23.6% (£4,174m) | Regulated electricity distribution and transmission and gas distribution in Massachusetts, plus electricity transmission in the region. Underlying operating profit £866m, down 6% after a FERC order on transmission owner returns. |
| UK Electricity Transmission | 16.4% (£2,898m) | Owns and operates the high-voltage transmission network in England and Wales under the RIIO price control. Underlying operating profit £1,682m, up 18%; capital investment £4,372m, up 46%. |
| UK Electricity Distribution | 11.0% (£1,937m) | The four distribution networks acquired with Western Power Distribution, serving the Midlands, the South West and South Wales under RIIO-ED2. Underlying operating profit £1,238m, up 3%. |
| National Grid Ventures and Other | 6.7% (£1,195m) | Interconnectors (including Viking Link), property and corporate activities. Underlying operating profit £327m, down 14% following the disposals of Grain LNG and National Grid Renewables. |
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. National Grid earns a regulated return on the capital it has invested in its networks. Regulators approve a regulatory asset value (UK) or rate base (US), set an allowed cost of equity and debt, and permit the company to recover approved operating and capital costs plus incentive payments through network charges. Commodity costs passed through to customers inflate reported revenue without adding profit, which is why gross revenue fell 4% to £17,687m in a year when underlying operating profit rose 6% to £5,680m.
Why the position is defensible. Transmission and distribution networks are natural monopolies. No competitor can build a parallel high-voltage grid across England and Wales or a second set of gas mains under Brooklyn, and the regulatory licences are perpetual in practice. The barrier is legal and physical at the same time, which is why the sector trades on the durability of the regulatory settlement rather than on competitive position.
What determines the return. Three things: the allowed return itself (6.12% real cost of equity under RIIO-T3), the pace at which the asset base grows, and the company's ability to deliver capital projects at or below the allowed cost. Group return on equity was 9.8% in 2025/26, up 80bps. Because the allowed return is set in real terms in the UK, inflation flows through to the RAV rather than being lost — UK RAV grew 12.8% in the year with CPIH indexation contributing.
The trade-off shareholders accept. The model requires permanent external funding. The 2025 rights issue raised £6,839m net and the weighted average share count rose from 4,707m to 4,946m; a scrip dividend alternative absorbs a further portion of the dividend each year, with 28% uptake in 2025/26. Growth in the asset base is real but per-share growth is diluted by the capital needed to fund it.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from National Grid's FY2026 Full Year Results Statement of 14 May 2026, its Form 20-F for 2025/26 filed with the SEC on 3 June 2026, and the corresponding prior-year filings. Amounts are in pounds sterling.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (£m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 (to 31 Mar 2022) | 18,449 | +35.0% | 60.6p† | — | — | £33,344m |
| FY2023 (to 31 Mar 2023) | 21,659 | +17.4% | 68.6p† | — | — | £40,030m |
| FY2024 (to 31 Mar 2024) | 19,850 | −8.4% | 55.5p† | — | — | £42,213m |
| FY2025 (to 31 Mar 2025) | 18,378 | −7.4% | 60.0p† | 73.3p‡ | 46.72p | £42,877m |
| FY2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | 17,687 | −3.8% | 65.5p† | 78.0p‡ | 48.49p | £42,855m |
† Basic earnings per share from continuing operations, as reported in the relevant year's Form 20-F. Per-share figures for FY2022 to FY2024 are as originally reported and are not restated for the May 2025 rights issue, so they are not directly comparable with FY2025 and FY2026. ‡ National Grid's headline adjusted measure is "underlying EPS", which excludes exceptional items, remeasurements, regulatory revenue timing differences, major storm costs above threshold and UK deferred tax; comparable underlying figures for FY2022 to FY2024 are not presented on the current continuing-operations basis and are shown as unavailable. Dividend per share for FY2022 to FY2024 was declared before the May 2025 rights issue rebased the per-share amounts and is shown as unavailable rather than on an inconsistent basis.
National Grid reports on a half-yearly basis. The table below shows the most recent period first; H2 figures are derived as the full year less the reported half year.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue (£m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H2 2025/26 (Oct 2025 – Mar 2026) | 10,622§ | 48.2p§ | — |
| H1 2025/26 (Apr – Sep 2025) | 7,065 | 29.8p | — |
| H2 2024/25 (Oct 2024 – Mar 2025) | 10,417§ | — | — |
| H1 2024/25 (Apr – Sep 2024) | 7,961 | — | — |
| FY2025/26 total | 17,687 | 78.0p | 65.5p |
§ Derived as the reported full year less the reported first half. National Grid does not publish a separate second-half statement, and does not disclose a statutory half-year EPS on a basis directly comparable with the full year, so those cells are shown as unavailable.
Cash flow and balance sheet. Cash generated from continuing operations was £7,861m, up 12%. Net cash from continuing operating activities was £7,829m. Against that, purchases of intangibles, property, plant and equipment and investments net of disposals absorbed £10,601m, net interest paid £1,701m and cash dividends £1,623m. Depreciation and amortisation was £2,247m. At 31 March 2026 the group held cash and cash equivalents of £375m against long-term borrowings of £42,855m and current borrowings of £3,900m, with reported net debt of £44,160m. During the year the company raised £4.2bn of new long-term senior debt and signed £2.4bn of new undrawn loan facilities, and had £8.0bn of undrawn committed facilities available as at 13 May 2026.
6. Valuation Metrics
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Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Short interest (% of float) | No current disclosed net short positions at or above the 0.5% notification threshold on the FCA short position register (daily file dated 10 July 2026); the only National Grid entries are historic disclosures from 2024. |
7. What Are They Building
The centrepiece is the extended and upgraded five-year financial framework announced with the FY2026 results: at least £70bn of capital investment to 2030/31, of which roughly £31bn is earmarked for UK Electricity Transmission, £9bn for UK Electricity Distribution, £17bn for New York and £12bn for New England. Around two-thirds of that plan is already covered by agreed regulatory settlements and supply chain and delivery mechanisms have been secured for around three-quarters of it.
In the UK the build is dominated by the Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment programme. Spending in UK Electricity Transmission rose 46% to £4,372m in 2025/26, with offshore work on EGL4 and Sea Link and onshore reinforcement including North London Reinforcement, Yorkshire Green, Tilbury-Grain and Norwich-Tilbury. The company also invested in a new control room and SCADA system. Capitalised interest and interest on prepayments of £229m was £86m higher than the prior year, reflecting the volume of assets under construction.
In the United States the programme is about system reinforcement and grid modernisation rather than new corridors: Advanced Metering Infrastructure and fault location, isolation and service restoration technology in New England, and the Upstate Upgrade and Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act programmes in New York. National Grid also filed its Massachusetts Gas rate case proposal during the year and secured approval of its Niagara Mohawk rate case in New York.
8. Peer Comparison
| Peer | Key 2025/26 metric |
|---|---|
| Iberdrola SA (BME: IBE) | Owns ScottishPower, which published a £10.6bn plan covering 2026–31 for electricity infrastructure in central and southern Scotland, including 12 new major transmission substations and 450km of upgraded circuits. |
| Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK) | US regulated electric and gas utility holding company; the closest listed comparator for National Grid's US regulated earnings stream. |
| SSE plc (LSE: SSE) | Owns and operates the high-voltage electricity transmission system in the north of Scotland and outlined more than £29bn of electricity transmission investment in the region in April 2026. |
9. Insider Activity
National Grid discloses dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibilities under Article 19 of the UK Market Abuse Regulation. Activity in 2026 has been routine plan-driven accumulation rather than discretionary buying or selling, and no member of the board has disclosed a material open-market disposal during the period reviewed. Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich, who took the CEO role on 17 November 2025, has not disclosed an open-market purchase or sale in the transactions reviewed below.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Agg (Chief Financial Officer) | 8 Jun 2026 | Purchase | 12 | Share Incentive Plan (partnership shares) |
| Andy Agg (Chief Financial Officer) | 7 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 11 | Share Incentive Plan (partnership shares) |
| PDMRs (group notification) | 17 Jun 2026 | Award | n/d | Long Term Performance Plan award, vesting on or after 18 June 2029 subject to continued employment and performance conditions |
| PDMRs (group notification) | 10 Jun 2026 | Award / exercise | n/d | Sharesave maturity notification |
n/d = not disclosed in the individual line item of the relevant RNS notification. Monthly Share Incentive Plan purchases of this size are automatic salary-funded contributions and carry no directional signal.
10. Key Risks
- Regulatory reset risk: the entire earnings stream depends on allowed returns set by third parties. RIIO-T3 fixes the UK Electricity Transmission return at a 6.12% real cost of equity to March 2031, but UK Electricity Distribution, New York and New England each run to separate timetables and each reset can move allowed revenue in either direction.
- Funding and interest rate risk: net debt of £44,160m is guided to rise by just over £6bn in 2026/27 to fund around £13bn of investment. Higher refinancing costs feed directly into earnings, and FFO/adjusted net debt of 13.0% has fallen 70bps against a 10% rating threshold.
- Delivery and supply chain risk: the £70bn plan assumes the company can build at the pace and cost regulators have allowed. Supply chain and delivery mechanisms are secured for around three-quarters of the plan — the remaining quarter is not, and cost overruns above allowances are borne by shareholders.
- US rate case and FERC risk: New England underlying operating profit fell 6% in 2025/26, principally because of a FERC order on transmission owner returns on equity across the region relating mostly to historical years. The Massachusetts Gas rate case remains outstanding.
- Storm and operational risk: deferrable US storm costs are excluded from underlying results only above a $100m aggregate threshold. In 2024/25 that threshold was breached with $110m of costs; in 2025/26 $52m sat inside underlying results. A severe storm season transfers directly into reported earnings.
- Dilution risk: the weighted average share count rose from 4,707m to 4,946m following the 2025 rights issue, and the five-year framework assumes a long-run average scrip dividend uptake of 25% per annum. Asset growth of 10.9% translates into 8–10% guided per-share growth partly because of this.
11. Recent Developments
- 10 Jun 2026 — Routine PDMR notifications published. National Grid disclosed transactions relating to the maturity of its Sharesave plan, followed by Long Term Performance Plan awards granted on 17 June 2026 that vest on or after 18 June 2029.
- 3 Jun 2026 — Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2025/26 filed with the SEC. The filing confirmed statutory revenue of £17,687m, statutory operating profit of £5,431m, depreciation and amortisation of £2,247m and 33,026 employees at the year end.
- 14 May 2026 — FY2026 full year results and an upgraded five-year framework. Underlying EPS of 78.0p was up 8% at constant currency, statutory EPS of 65.5p up 9%, capital investment a record £11,576m, and the framework was extended to 2030/31 with at least £70bn of investment and 8–10% compound underlying EPS growth.
- 13 Apr 2026 — New US term loan signed. National Grid North America Inc. signed a new term loan facility of approximately £0.7bn equivalent, adding to the £4.2bn of new long-term senior debt raised during 2025/26.
- 1 Mar 2026 — RIIO-T3 accepted in full. The company accepted all of the price control arrangements proposed in Ofgem's Final Determination for UK Electricity Transmission covering April 2026 to March 2031, including a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing.
- 4 Dec 2025 — Ofgem published the RIIO-T3 Final Determination. The determination set the framework under which National Grid's largest UK investment programme will be remunerated for the following five years.
- 28 Nov 2025 — Sale of Grain LNG completed. The business was sold to a consortium of Centrica plc and Energy Capital Partners for net cash proceeds of £1,336m, following the completion of the sale of National Grid Renewables to Brookfield in May 2025 for net cash proceeds of £1,473m.
- 17 Nov 2025 — Zoë Yujnovich became Chief Executive. The former Shell Integrated Gas and Upstream Director succeeded John Pettigrew, who retired on 16 November 2025 after almost a decade leading the company.
12. Key Dates
- 23 Jul 2026 — 2025/26 final dividend of 32.14p per ordinary share paid to qualifying shareholders
- 05 Nov 2026 — 2026/27 Half Year Results, the next scheduled reporting event
- 19 Nov 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the 2026/27 interim dividend (ordinary shares)
- 20 Nov 2026 — Record date for the 2026/27 interim dividend
- 26 Nov 2026 — Scrip reference price announced for the 2026/27 interim dividend
- 10 Dec 2026 — Scrip election date for the 2026/27 interim dividend (ordinary shares, 5pm GMT)
- 12 Jan 2027 — 2026/27 interim dividend paid to qualifying shareholders
- Expected May 2027 — 2026/27 Full Year Results, the first full year under the RIIO-T3 price control
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