Southern Company (SO) — Company Research
Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026
The Southern Company (NYSE: SO) is a regulated electric and gas utility holding company in the US Southeast. It owns Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Mississippi Power, the wholesale generator Southern Power, and the Southern Company Gas distribution businesses. Data-centre demand now drives the story: about 17 GW of large-load capacity is contracted, an $81bn 2026–2030 capital plan is under way, and management expects 2026 adjusted EPS at or near the top of guidance. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | SO / NYSE |
| Headquarters | Atlanta, Georgia, USA |
| CEO / Leadership | Chris Womack, Chairman, President & CEO; David P. Poroch, CFO; Kimberly S. Greene, CEO of Georgia Power |
| Sector | Utilities — regulated electric & gas |
| Employees | ~29,800 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K) |
| Market cap | ~$102.8bn (14 Oct 2026 close) |
| FY2025 Revenue | $29,553m (+10.6%) |
| FY2025 GAAP EPS (diluted) | $3.92 |
| FY2025 adjusted EPS | $4.30 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.50–$4.60; after Q2, management expects to finish at or near the top of the range |
| Dividend | $0.76 per quarter ($3.04 annualised; yield ~3.4%); 25th consecutive annual increase |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Contracted large-load surge: About 17 GW of large-load capacity was contracted at the Q2 2026 call, 6 GW of it added since Q1, with a prospective pipeline of 75 GW or more.
- Customer-funded growth contracts: Georgia Power’s approved 3.2 GW, 25-year OpenAI contract has OpenAI paying the full cost to serve, and the company projects about $950m a year of customer savings from 2029.
- Earnings running ahead: H1 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.46 against $2.15. Management guides to 8–9% adjusted EPS growth through 2028, based on a 2028 range of $5.25–$5.45.
- Nuclear franchise: Southern operates eight nuclear units. Google will fund about 96 MW of uprates at Plants Vogtle and Hatch under a new NU-1 tariff, pending Georgia PSC approval.
- Low-cost federal financing: Up to $26.5bn of DOE loan guarantees, priced at Treasury plus 37.5bp, support the build-out with about $7bn of projected customer savings.
Bear Case
- Negative free cash flow: Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $10.65bn fell short of $13.92bn of capital expenditure to 30 Jun 2026, a gap of about $3.27bn.
- Rising debt and dilution: Total debt was about $75.6bn at 30 Jun 2026. Funding uses convertible notes ($2.73bn priced on 03 Aug 2026), equity units and an ATM programme of up to 50m shares.
- Political and regulatory shifts: Two Georgia PSC seats are up for election on 03 Nov 2026 on a 3–2 commission, and base rates are frozen in Georgia through 2028 and in Alabama through 2027.
- Cyber-breach fallout: An Oct 2026 breach of the customer portal affected about 400,000 electric customers, and law firms are investigating claims.
- Credit pressure: Moody’s has had a Negative outlook on the parent since Sep 2025. The 10-K says operating cash flow is not expected to cover capex, dividends and maturities in 2026–2028.
3. Business Segments
Percentages use FY2025 consolidated operating revenues of $29,553m from the FY2025 10-K segment note.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional electric operating companies | 74.6% ($22,056m) | Vertically integrated regulated utilities Georgia Power ($12,631m), Alabama Power ($8,235m) and Mississippi Power ($1,695m); operating-company figures include intercompany sales. |
| Southern Company Gas | 17.1% ($5,044m) | Regulated natural-gas distribution utilities, including Nicor Gas, plus related gas businesses. |
| Southern Power | 7.4% ($2,198m) | Wholesale generation under long-term contracts with utilities and large customers. |
| All Other | 3.0% ($893m) | Parent company and other non-utility businesses. |
| Eliminations | −2.2% (−$638m) | Intercompany electric and gas revenue removed on consolidation. |
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. About 95% of planned capital goes to state-regulated utilities. These utilities earn a commission-authorised return on rate base and recover prudent costs through customer rates. Southern Power adds contracted wholesale margins, and it has re-contracted 1 GW of gas capacity since 2023 at two to three times historical pricing.
Rate-base economics. Management projects about 9% rate-base growth and about 10% electric sales growth from 2026 to 2030, funded by an $81bn capital plan ($68bn state-regulated electric, $9bn gas). Large-load contracts run at least 15 years, with minimum bills covering at least 100% of incremental cost, plus termination payments and collateral.
Moat. Southern holds franchised monopoly territories in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, eight operated nuclear units (including the completed Vogtle 3 and 4), which supplied about 36% of Georgia Power’s 2025 generation, and an established gas distribution footprint. Together these give it scale and regulatory barriers to entry.
5. Financial Health
Annual figures come from Southern’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end. Dividends are paid per share.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $23,113m | +13.4% | $2.24 | $3.41 | $2.62 | $50,120m |
| FY2022 | $29,279m | +26.7% | $3.26 | $3.60 | $2.70 | $50,656m |
| FY2023 | $25,253m | −13.8% | $3.62 | $3.65 | $2.78 | $57,210m |
| FY2024 | $26,724m | +5.8% | $3.99 | $4.05 | $2.86 | $58,768m |
| FY2025 | $29,553m | +10.6% | $3.92 | $4.30 | $2.94 | $65,649m |
Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6,977m | $1.13 | $1.03 |
| Q1 2026 | $8,397m | $1.32 | $1.20 |
| Q4 2025 | $6,981m | $0.55 | $0.38 |
| Q3 2025 | $7,823m | $1.60 | $1.54 |
| FY2025 total | $29,553m | $4.30 | $3.92 |
Q2 2026 net income was $1,174m, against $880m a year earlier. Adjusted results exclude $143m pre-tax of accelerated depreciation on Southern Power wind repowering and an $8m Nicor Gas disallowance. Weather-adjusted retail sales grew 2.3%, and commercial sales grew 7.4%. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, revenue was $30,178m, diluted GAAP EPS $4.15 and adjusted EPS $4.60.
Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).
- Operating cash flow: $9.80bn in FY2025; $10.65bn on a trailing-twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026.
- Capital expenditure: $12.74bn in FY2025; $13.92bn trailing twelve months.
- Depreciation, amortisation & accretion (cash-flow statement): $6.03bn in FY2025; $6.35bn trailing twelve months.
- Debt at 30 Jun 2026: non-current long-term debt $68,756m, current maturities $4,694m and short-term borrowings $2,132m.
- Cash at 30 Jun 2026: $2,984m.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$102.8bn (price $89.38 at 14 Oct 2026 close × ~1.15bn shares) |
| Enterprise value | ~$175.4bn (market cap ~$102.8bn + total debt ~$75.6bn − cash ~$3.0bn per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet; total debt = long-term debt $68.76bn + current maturities $4.69bn + short-term borrowings $2.13bn) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~21.5x ($89.38 / $4.15 TTM diluted GAAP EPS, Q3 2025–Q2 2026); on TTM adjusted EPS of $4.60 the multiple is ~19.4x |
| P/E (forward) | ~19.6x ($89.38 / $4.55, the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.50–$4.60) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~3.4x ($102.8bn / $30.18bn TTM revenue) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~12.9x (EV ~$175.4bn / EBITDA ~$13.65bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income $7.31bn + TTM depreciation, amortisation & accretion $6.35bn from the cash-flow statement) |
| P/FCF | n/m — FCF negative (TTM operating CF $10.65bn − capex $13.92bn = −$3.27bn) |
| Dividend yield | ~3.4% ($3.04 annualised / $89.38) |
| 52-week high | $100.84 |
| 52-week low | $81.69 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~2.56% (29.35m shares short, settlement date 30 Sep 2026, MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | ~4.2 days (on 6.49m average daily volume) |
7. What Are They Building
Southern has about 10 GW of company-owned resources under construction and more than 500 miles of new transmission lines.
- Gas generation: Yates Units 8–10 combustion turbines (441 MW and 882 MW) and combined-cycle units at Wansley (Units 10–11, 777 MW each), Bowen (Units 7–8, 780 MW each) and McIntosh (Unit 12, 797 MW). The Georgia PSC certified 9,885 MW on 19 Dec 2025.
- Storage: Battery sites are planned in phases across 2026–2030. The 128 MW Robins battery reached commercial operation on 15 Sep 2026, and Alabama Power’s Clearview Ranch project (200 MW solar plus a 200 MW battery) is certificated.
- Nuclear: The Vogtle 1&2 extended uprate is approved, the Hatch extended uprate has been requested, and Google is funding about 96 MW of uprates.
- Southern Power: Up to 700 MW of gas-fleet uprates from as early as 2029, and six brownfield gas sites under evaluation.
- Large loads: More than 1.2 GW of data-centre load is already on the system, and data-centre usage rose 55% year on year in Q2 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
Southern competes for capital with other large US regulated utilities. Market caps are at the 14 Oct 2026 close. Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.
| Peer | Market cap (Oct 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy (NEE) | ~$163.5bn | FY2025 adjusted EPS $3.71 (GAAP $3.30), per NextEra Q4 2025 release |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | ~$93.3bn | FY2025 adjusted and GAAP EPS $6.31 on revenue of $32,237m, per Duke Q4 2025 release |
| American Electric Power (AEP) | ~$68.7bn | FY2025 operating EPS $5.97 (GAAP $6.70), per AEP Q4 2025 release |
| Dominion Energy (D) | ~$55.2bn | FY2025 operating EPS $3.42 (GAAP $3.45), per Dominion FY2025 release; subject to a pending combination with NextEra |
9. Leadership & Insider Activity
Chris Womack is Chairman, President and CEO, and no succession has been announced. David P. Poroch is CFO. Womack made no open-market transactions in 2026; his last reported sale was on 03 Mar 2025. Form 4 filings in 2026 show only open-market sales by other officers, with no purchases. Comptroller Matthew M. Kim also sold 100 shares on the first trading day of each month from May to Oct 2026. None of the Form 4s reviewed carries a 10b5-1 footnote.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter P. Sena III (CEO, Southern Nuclear) | 03 Sep 2026 | Sale | 4,266 | $88.59 | ~$0.38m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Matthew M. Kim (Comptroller) | 03 Sep 2026 | Sale | 1,400 | $88.87 | ~$0.12m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Sterling A. Spainhour Jr. (EVP & CLO) | 06 Aug 2026 | Sale | 3,333 | $94.02 | ~$0.31m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Kimberly S. Greene (CEO, Georgia Power) | 30 Mar 2026 | Sale | 25,000 | $96.67 | ~$2.42m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Christopher Cummiskey (EVP) | 19 Mar 2026 | Sale | 6,669 | $96.55 | ~$0.64m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Stan W. Connally (EVP & COO) | 18 Mar 2026 | Sale | 12,500 | $97.13 | ~$1.21m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
| Matthew M. Kim (Comptroller) | 24 Feb 2026 | Sale | 5,123 | $95.15 | ~$0.49m | Open market; plan status not disclosed |
10. Key Risks
- Large-load demand concentration (Operational): Much of the growth case rests on data centres, a single industry. The 10-K warns that contract protections “may not fully protect” the utilities if projected demand fails to materialise. Georgia Power has also committed to at least $556m a year of levelised downward rate pressure in 2029–2031.
- Regulatory & political (Regulatory): The 03 Nov 2026 Georgia PSC election could change control of a 3–2 commission. Georgia Power base rates are frozen through 2028. In Alabama, rates are frozen through 2027, and the Apr 2026 Power to the People Act bars base-rate increases before 2029. The Nicor Gas disallowance shows how recovery can be refused.
- Financing, credit & dilution (Financial): Operating cash flow is not expected to cover capex, dividends and maturities in 2026–2028. A downgrade to BB+/Ba1 could trigger up to $3,723m of collateral calls (at 30 Jun 2026). Continued equity, convertible and hybrid issuance dilutes shareholders.
- Construction & cost (Operational): Building about 10 GW of new resources exposes Southern to tariffs, inflation, prudence disallowances and changes to tax-credit eligibility.
- Cyber security (Operational): This risk materialised with the Oct 2026 customer-portal breach affecting about 400,000 customers. Possible claims are under investigation.
- Storms & environmental (Macro): Hurricane Helene cost Georgia Power about $880m, and Hurricane Isaias costs are not yet disclosed. Coal-ash closure spending is about $3.3bn over 2026–2030, and the Plant Barry litigation was revived on 18 May 2026.
11. Recent Developments
- 14 Oct 2026 — Data-breach claims investigated. Law firms, including Ademi LLP, announced investigations into claims over the customer-portal breach at Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Mississippi Power.
- 10 Oct 2026 — Hurricane Isaias restoration. After a Category 2 landfall near Destin, Florida, the operating companies had restored about 420,000 customers by the evening, with about 80,000 still out. More than 6,400 outside workers were brought in.
- 05 Oct 2026 — Customer portal breach. An unauthorised party accessed the online customer portal, affecting about 400,000 electric customers. Exposed data included names, addresses, emails and the last four digits of Social Security or tax ID numbers; no full SSNs or bank or card data were taken.
- 25 Sep 2026 — Q3 date set. Southern confirmed it will release Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026.
- 21 Sep 2026 — Google nuclear uprate agreement. Google will support about 96 MW of uprates at Plants Vogtle and Hatch under a new NU-1 tariff. Georgia Power projects about $900m of customer benefits, and the deal is pending PSC approval.
- 15 Sep 2026 — Robins battery online. Georgia Power’s 128 MW Robins battery storage facility reached commercial operation.
- 10 Sep 2026 — Solar contracts approved. Georgia Power received approval for 1,137 MW of new solar power purchase agreements under its CARES program.
- 26 Aug 2026 — OpenAI contract approved. Georgia Power’s 3.2 GW, 25-year contract for OpenAI’s Effingham County site was approved. OpenAI pays the full cost to serve and commits up to 1 GW of flexible demand.
- 03 Aug 2026 — Convertible notes priced. Southern priced $833.75m of 2.125% notes due 2027 and $1,897.5m of 3.50% notes due 2029, and used part of the proceeds to repurchase 4.50% converts due 2027.
- 30 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.13 (GAAP $1.03) on revenue of $6,977m. The six-month adjusted EPS of $2.46 compared with $2.15 a year earlier.
12. Key Dates
- Expected Oct 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration (the equivalent dividend was declared on 20 Oct 2025)
- 03 Nov 2026 — Georgia Public Service Commission election for two seats
- 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (release by 7:30am ET, call 1pm ET)
- 01 Dec 2026 — Georgia PSC runoff date, if required
- Expected Dec 2026 — company-owned project selections in Georgia Power’s all-source RFP (by year end)
- 15 Dec 2027 — maturity of the 2.125% convertible notes
No date has been set for the Georgia PSC decisions on the Google NU-1 tariff and the Hatch extended uprate.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Southern Company owns regulated electric utilities in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, the wholesale generator Southern Power and gas distribution businesses, earning commission-authorised returns on a growing rate base. FY2025 revenue rose 10.6% to $29.55bn with adjusted EPS of $4.30; H1 2026 adjusted EPS reached $2.46 versus $2.15, and management expects 2026 at or near the top of its $4.50–$4.60 range, with 8–9% growth projected through 2028. The primary driver is roughly 17 GW of contracted large-load demand, including a 3.2 GW OpenAI contract, funded by an $81bn 2026–2030 capital plan.
What would confirm or break it. Q3 results on 05 Nov 2026 in line with guidance, further contracted load converting to revenue and PSC approval of the Google-funded nuclear uprates would confirm the case. It would weaken if negative free cash flow and ~$75.6bn of debt pressured credit ratings, if the 03 Nov 2026 Georgia PSC election shifted regulation against the company, or if data-centre demand or fallout from the October data breach disappointed.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (21 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Contracted large-load surge:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Financing, credit & dilution (Financial):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 15 Oct 2026.
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