Duke Energy (DUK) — Company Research

Last Updated: 15 Oct 2026

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) is one of the largest regulated utilities in the United States, serving about 8.7 million electric customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky, plus about 1.6 million natural-gas customers. The investment story is a record $103bn 2026–2030 capital plan driven by data-centre and industrial load, now backed by newly approved large-load tariff protections in the Carolinas. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	DUK / NYSE
Headquarters	Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
CEO / Leadership	Harry K. Sideris, President & CEO since 01 Apr 2025; Brian Savoy, EVP & CFO; Theodore F. Craver Jr., independent Chair
Sector	Utilities — regulated electric & gas
Employees	26,441 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K)
Customers	~8.7m electric and ~1.6m gas customers; ~55,700 MW owned capacity
Market cap	~$93.3bn (14 Oct 2026 close)
FY2025 Revenue	$32,237m (+6.2%)
FY2025 GAAP net income	$4,968m ($6.31 per diluted share)
FY2025 adjusted EPS	$6.31
2026 adjusted EPS guidance	$6.55–$6.80 (reaffirmed 04 Aug 2026)
Dividend	$1.085 per quarter ($4.34 annualised; yield ~3.6%)

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record, demand-backed capital plan: The $103bn 2026–2030 plan, raised by $16bn in Feb 2026, is described by management as driving 9.6% earnings-base growth, with a further $5–10bn of large-load upside identified on the Q2 2026 call.
• Contracted data-centre load: Duke reports 7.8 GW of signed data-centre electric service agreements and a ~15.4 GW late-stage pipeline that it targets converting to agreements by H1 2027.
• Large-load protections now in place: FERC approved the Duke Energy Carolinas large-load transmission tariff on 09 Oct 2026, and a North Carolina settlement signed with Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft requires upfront payments and deposits from customers of 50 MW or more.
• Earnings momentum: H1 2026 adjusted EPS was $3.36 against $3.00 a year earlier, 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 was reaffirmed, and management expects to earn in the top half of its 5–7% growth range from 2028.
• A century of dividends: 2026 is Duke’s 100th consecutive year of quarterly cash dividends, and the payout was raised to $1.085 per quarter in Jul 2026.

Bear Case

• Negative free cash flow: Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $11.56bn fell well short of $15.84bn of capital expenditure to 30 Jun 2026, a free cash flow gap of about $4.27bn.
• Heavy and rising debt: Total debt was about $91.2bn at 30 Jun 2026, and non-current long-term debt has climbed from $60.4bn at the end of 2021 to $82.2bn.
• Equity dilution: Funding relies partly on a $6bn at-the-market programme set up in Mar 2026 and $1.75bn of mandatory equity units priced on 11 Aug 2026.
• Affordability politics: The North Carolina Attorney General declined to sign the Duke Energy Progress rate settlement and filed for a 7.4% ROE against the 9.8% agreed in the Duke Energy Carolinas settlement.
• Storm exposure: Hurricane Isaias (Oct 2026), an Aug 2026 Cincinnati derecho and Q1 2026 storms show how weather can add unplanned costs and earnings drag.

3. Business Segments

Duke reports two reportable segments plus Other. Percentages use FY2025 total operating revenues of $32,237m from the Q4 2025 earnings release.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Electric Utilities & Infrastructure	91.1% ($29,357m)	Regulated generation, transmission and distribution through Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Florida, Duke Energy Ohio/Kentucky and Duke Energy Indiana.
Gas Utilities & Infrastructure	9.3% ($3,003m)	Regulated gas distribution through Piedmont Natural Gas and Duke Energy Ohio/Kentucky. The Tennessee gas business was sold to Spire on 31 Mar 2026.
Other	0.5% ($165m)	Corporate, captive insurance and other activities.
Eliminations	−0.9% (−$288m)	Intersegment revenue removed on consolidation.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Duke earns a regulated return on the capital it invests in generation, transmission, distribution and gas networks. State commissions and FERC set rates that recover prudent operating costs plus an authorised return on rate base, so earnings grow as the rate base grows. The pending Duke Energy Carolinas settlement, for example, sets a 9.8% ROE on a 53% equity ratio.

Rate-base economics. Management links its $103bn plan to 9.6% annual earnings-base growth and a 5–7% adjusted EPS growth target through 2030. Asset recycling helps fund the plan: Brookfield is buying a 19.7% stake in Duke Energy Florida for $6bn in tranches, and the Tennessee gas sale raised $2.48bn.

Moat. Duke holds franchised monopoly service territories covering about 90,000 square miles and around 27 million people. Essential-service demand, long-lived assets and regulatory barriers to entry give it unusually visible cash flows. The 01 Jan 2027 merger of Duke Energy Progress into Duke Energy Carolinas will create a single, larger Carolinas utility.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from Duke’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$24,621m†	+5.4%	$4.94	$4.99†	$3.90	$60,448m
FY2022	$28,768m	+16.8%	$3.17	$5.27	$3.98	$65,873m
FY2023	$29,060m	+1.0%	$3.54	$5.56	$4.06	$72,452m
FY2024	$30,357m	+4.5%	$5.71	$5.90	$4.14	$76,340m
FY2025	$32,237m	+6.2%	$6.31	$6.31	$4.22	$80,108m

† FY2021 revenue and adjusted EPS are shown as recast in the Feb 2023 release after Commercial Renewables moved to discontinued operations. As originally reported they were $25,097m and $5.24. FY2021 YoY uses the recast FY2020 revenue of $23,366m. FY2022 GAAP EPS is the restated $3.17; $3.33 was originally reported. Dividends are declared per share.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$7,592m	$1.43	$1.38
Q1 2026	$9,178m	$1.93	$1.97
Q4 2025	$7,938m	$1.50	$1.50
Q3 2025	$8,542m	$1.81	$1.81
FY2025 total	$32,237m	$6.31	$6.31

Q2 2026 GAAP EPS included a $0.05 per share charge for the Duke Energy Carolinas North Carolina rate-case settlement. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, revenue was $33,250m, GAAP EPS $6.66 and adjusted EPS $6.67.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $12.33bn in FY2025; $11.56bn on a trailing-twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026.
• Capital expenditure: $14.02bn in FY2025; $15.84bn trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation & amortisation (cash-flow statement): $7.70bn in FY2025; $7.75bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: non-current long-term debt $82,242m, current maturities $6,666m and short-term borrowings $2,330m.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: $673m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$93.3bn (price $119.64 at 14 Oct 2026 close × ~779.7m shares)
Enterprise value	~$183.8bn (market cap ~$93.3bn + total debt ~$91.2bn − cash ~$0.7bn per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet; total debt = long-term debt $82.24bn + current maturities $6.67bn + short-term borrowings $2.33bn)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~18.0x ($119.64 / $6.66 TTM GAAP EPS, Q3 2025–Q2 2026); on TTM adjusted EPS of $6.67 the multiple is ~17.9x
P/E (forward)	~17.9x ($119.64 / $6.675, the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55–$6.80)
P/S (TTM)	~2.8x ($93.3bn / $33.25bn TTM revenue)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~10.8x (EV ~$183.8bn / EBITDA ~$16.97bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income $9.23bn + TTM D&A $7.75bn from the cash-flow statement)
P/FCF	n/m — FCF negative (TTM operating CF $11.56bn − capex $15.84bn = −$4.27bn)
Dividend yield	~3.6% ($4.34 annualised / $119.64)
52-week high	$134.49
52-week low	$112.40
Short interest (% of float)	~2.29% (~17.78m shares short, stockanalysis.com data updated 15 Oct 2026; MarketBeat showed 2.28% at 15 Jul 2026)
Days to cover	~4.4 days

7. What Are They Building

Duke’s build-out centres on the $103bn 2026–2030 capital plan, which management says means spending more than $1bn a month.

• Generation: About 14 GW of incremental generation over five years. That includes about 5 GW of gas generation under construction and 2.5 GW in development, backed by 26 reserved GE Vernova turbines, and about 4.5 GW of batteries through 2031.
• Nuclear: An Early Site Permit application for a Stokes County, North Carolina site; about 300 MW of uprates on the existing fleet; and licence extensions to 80 years. Management says it will not propose new nuclear without cost-overrun protections.
• Large loads: 7.8 GW of signed data-centre agreements and about 5.2 GW of data centres under construction, mostly in Florida and Indiana.
• Grid: Storm hardening in Florida, a $50m DOE grid-capacity award in the Carolinas (24 Sep 2026), and a 2026 Carolinas Resource Plan filed on 14 Aug 2026 that combines gas, storage, solar and nuclear.

8. Competitive Landscape

Duke competes for capital with other large US regulated utilities. Market caps are at the 14 Oct 2026 close. Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
NextEra Energy (NEE)	~$163.5bn	FY2025 adjusted EPS $3.71 (GAAP $3.30), per NextEra Q4 2025 release
Southern Company (SO)	~$102.8bn	FY2025 adjusted EPS $4.30 on revenue of $29,553m, per Southern Q4 2025 release
American Electric Power (AEP)	~$68.7bn	FY2025 operating EPS $5.97 (GAAP $6.70), per AEP Q4 2025 release
Dominion Energy (D)	~$55.2bn	FY2025 operating EPS $3.42 (GAAP $3.45), per Dominion FY2025 release; subject to a pending combination with NextEra

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Harry K. Sideris has been President and CEO since 01 Apr 2025, succeeding Lynn Good. Brian Savoy is EVP and CFO, and Theodore F. Craver Jr. is the independent Chair. Form 4 filings show only open-market sales by executives in 2026, with no open-market purchases. After his May sale, Sideris held 96,102 shares directly. The Sideris and Savoy filings carry no 10b5-1 plan footnote.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Louis Renjel (EVP)	11 May 2026	Sale	3,500	$125.15	~$0.44m	Open market; plan status not verified
Harry K. Sideris (CEO)	08 May 2026	Sale	20,000	$124.37 avg	~$2.49m	Open market; no 10b5-1 footnote
Regis Repko (SVP)	24 Feb 2026	Sale	962	$127.86	~$0.12m	Open market; plan status not verified
Brian Savoy (CFO)	23 Feb 2026	Sale	12,000	~$127.49–$128.23	~$1.53m	Open market; no 10b5-1 footnote
Regis Repko (SVP)	20 Feb 2026	Sale	4,376	$127.18	~$0.56m	Open market; plan status not verified
Louis Renjel (EVP)	12 Feb 2026	Sale	6,800	$127.67	~$0.87m	Open market; plan status not verified

10. Key Risks

• Financing & leverage (Financial): Total debt is about $91.2bn and trailing free cash flow about −$4.27bn. Meeting the 14.5% (2026) and 15% (long-term) FFO/debt targets depends on the ATM programme, the equity units and the remaining Brookfield tranches. Credit ratings are Baa2 (Moody’s) and BBB+ (S&P).
• Rate-case outcomes (Regulatory): The North Carolina Utilities Commission has yet to rule on the Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress cases, with new rates targeted for 01 Jan 2027. The Attorney General opposes the Progress settlement.
• Large-load concentration (Operational): The 10-K warns that load growth could fall short, “particularly if usage of electricity by data centers is less than currently projected”, leaving stranded-cost risk.
• Construction & execution (Operational): Delivering about 14 GW of new generation, including about 5 GW of gas under construction, carries supply-chain, permitting and cost-overrun risk.
• Weather & catastrophe (Macro): Hurricane Isaias in Oct 2026, the Aug 2026 Cincinnati derecho and Q1 2026 storms show the earnings and cost exposure. Storm-cost estimates for Isaias have not been disclosed.
• Environmental & nuclear liabilities (Regulatory): Coal-ash closure costs under the North Carolina Coal Ash Act and federal CCR rules, and nuclear operating and decommissioning obligations, remain uncertain.

11. Recent Developments

• 14 Oct 2026 — Attorney General backs large-load tariff. North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson called the data-centre tariff settlement a “massive step forward”, while continuing to press Duke for more transparency.
• 10 Oct 2026 — Hurricane Isaias restoration. Duke Energy Florida was finishing restoration with about 2,200 customers still out. In the Carolinas, the storm’s remnants caused more than 10,000 outages.
• 09 Oct 2026 — FERC approves Carolinas large-load tariff. On a 4–1 vote, FERC approved a transmission tariff requiring large loads to pay a committed revenue contribution of 75% of scheduled MW for 15 years.
• 07 Oct 2026 — North Carolina large-load settlement. Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress settled with the Public Staff, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and the U.S. Department of Defense. Customers of 50 MW or more will pay upfront for dedicated facilities. A Commission decision is expected by mid-November.
• 06 Oct 2026 — Q3 date set. Duke confirmed it will release Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026.
• 01 Oct 2026 — Dividend declared. A quarterly dividend of $1.085 per share was declared, payable on 16 Dec 2026.
• 24 Sep 2026 — DOE grid award. The U.S. Department of Energy selected Duke for $50m of grid-capacity and reliability funding in the Carolinas.
• 11 Aug 2026 — Equity units priced. Duke priced 35m equity units ($1.75bn) carrying 7.75% total distributions, with mandatory purchase of common stock by 01 Aug 2029.
• 04 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $1.43 (GAAP $1.38) against $1.25 a year earlier. Revenue was $7,592m, and 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 was reaffirmed.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Dividend raised. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.085 from $1.065.

12. Key Dates

• 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (release 7am ET, call 10am ET)
• 13 Nov 2026 — ex-dividend and record date for the $1.085 quarterly dividend
• Expected Nov 2026 — North Carolina Utilities Commission decision on the large-load settlement (expected by mid-November) and orders on the Carolinas rate cases
• 16 Dec 2026 — quarterly dividend payment date
• 31 Dec 2026 — deadline for the $200m Brookfield tranche for Duke Energy Florida
• 01 Jan 2027 — Duke Energy Progress merges into Duke Energy Carolinas; target date for new North Carolina rates

Remaining Brookfield tranches are due by 30 Jun 2027 ($500m), 31 Dec 2027 ($1.5bn) and 30 Jun 2028 ($1bn).

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