Last Updated: 30 May 2026
Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) is one of the largest regulated utilities in the United States, delivering electricity across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky and natural gas across several of the same states plus Tennessee. Its story today is one of record capital investment — a $103bn five-year plan — driven by surging data-centre and industrial demand, funded in part by asset partnerships such as Brookfield’s minority stake in Duke Energy Florida. This report reviews the most recent reported figures, balance sheet, valuation and risks using only primary filings and official releases.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | DUK / NYSE |
| Headquarters | Charlotte, North Carolina, USA |
| CEO | Harry Sideris (President & CEO since April 2025) |
| Sector | Utilities — regulated electric & gas |
| Employees | ~27,600 |
| Market cap | ~$96bn (late May 2026) |
| FY2025 revenue | $32.24bn |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $4.97bn ($6.31/sh) |
| FY2025 adjusted EPS | $6.31 |
| Dividend yield | ~3.4% |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Record, demand-backed capital plan: Duke’s $103bn 2026–2030 plan (up 18% on the prior $87bn) grows the regulated rate base that drives earnings, supported by hyperscale data-centre load.
- Data-centre demand surge: The company has executed electric service agreements for more than 4.5 GW of cumulative contracted data-centre load, with a multi-GW late-stage pipeline behind it.
- Predictable regulated earnings: More than 90% of revenue comes from regulated electric operations, underpinning a 5–7% long-term adjusted-EPS growth target through 2030.
- Capital recycling: Brookfield’s minority investment in Duke Energy Florida brought in billions of proceeds to help fund growth without over-relying on equity issuance.
- Reliable, growing dividend: Duke has paid dividends for nearly a century and continues to grow them in line with earnings.
Bear Case
- Negative free cash flow: Record capex (~$14bn in 2025) exceeds operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow negative and the plan dependent on debt and partnership funding.
- High and rising debt: Long-term debt reached ~$80.1bn at year-end 2025; a rising-rate environment lifts interest costs on a heavily leveraged balance sheet.
- Regulatory & affordability scrutiny: Consumer advocates and legislators in the Carolinas and Indiana are scrutinising rate-base growth and weighing data-centre tariff rules.
- Execution risk on mega-projects: Building more than 5 GW of new gas generation and large grid investment carries construction, permitting and cost-overrun risk.
- Concentrated geographic exposure: Weather, storms and state-level regulation in a handful of jurisdictions can swing results.
3. Business Segments
Duke reports two operating segments. The split below uses FY2025 total operating revenues of $32,237m.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Electric Utilities & Infrastructure | ~91% | Regulated generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky (FY2025 revenue $29.36bn). |
| Gas Utilities & Infrastructure | ~9% | Regulated natural-gas distribution in the Carolinas, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee (FY2025 revenue $3.00bn). |
| Other & eliminations | ~0% | Corporate activities and consolidating eliminations. |
4. Business Model
How it makes money. Duke earns an authorised regulated return on the capital it invests in poles, wires, power plants and gas infrastructure. State commissions set customer rates that allow recovery of prudent costs plus a return on the rate base, so earnings grow as Duke invests and the rate base expands.
Unit economics. The core driver is rate-base growth: the $103bn five-year plan, roughly 65% of which targets grid infrastructure and generation, translates into a growing earnings base that management links to its 5–7% adjusted-EPS growth target. Partnerships such as the Brookfield investment in Duke Energy Florida supply funding while keeping equity dilution in check.
Moat. Duke operates regulated monopolies in its service territories — high barriers to entry, essential-service demand and long-lived assets — giving it stable, visible cash flows that are unusual outside the utility sector.
5. Financial Health
Figures below are from Duke Energy’s earnings releases and FY2025 consolidated statements. In 2025 there were no adjusting items, so GAAP and adjusted EPS were equal.
| Year | Revenue | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $24.62bn | — | $4.94 | $5.24 | $3.86 | ~$57.0bn |
| 2022 | $28.77bn | +16.8% | $3.33 | $5.27 | $3.94 | ~$63.4bn |
| 2023 | $29.06bn | +1.0% | $3.54 | $5.56 | $4.02 | ~$70.0bn |
| 2024 | $30.36bn | +4.5% | $5.71 | $5.90 | $4.10 | $76.3bn |
| 2025 | $32.24bn | +6.2% | $6.31 | $6.31 | $4.18 | $80.1bn |
Quarterly progression (most recent first), with the full-year row in bold. Q2 2025 revenue is approximate where not separately disclosed.
| Quarter | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $9.18bn | $1.93 | $1.97 |
| Q4 2025 | $7.94bn | $1.50 | $1.50 |
| Q3 2025 | $8.54bn | $1.81 | — |
| Q2 2025 | ~$7.5bn | $1.25 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $8.25bn | $1.76 | — |
| FY 2025 | $32.24bn | $6.31 | $6.31 |
Operating cash flow was $12.33bn in 2025 while net cash used in investing was $14.34bn, so capital spending of roughly $14bn pushed free cash flow modestly negative. Operating income was $8.63bn and depreciation & amortisation $6.32bn; year-end 2025 long-term debt stood at $80.1bn.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, May 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$96bn (price ~$123, ~778m shares, late May 2026) |
| Enterprise value | ~$185.3bn (market cap ~$96bn + total debt ~$89.8bn − cash ~$0.2bn per FY2025 balance sheet) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~19.5x ($123 / $6.31 FY2025 GAAP EPS) |
| P/E (forward) | ~18.4x ($123 / $6.68 midpoint of 2026 guidance $6.55–$6.80) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~3.0x ($96bn / $32.24bn FY2025 revenue) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~12.4x (EV ~$185.3bn / EBITDA ~$14.95bn; EBITDA = operating income $8.63bn + D&A $6.32bn per FY2025) |
| P/FCF | Not meaningful — FCF negative (operating CF $12.33bn − capex ~$14bn = ~−$1.5bn) |
| Dividend yield | ~3.4% ($4.18/share annual / ~$123) |
| 52-week high | $134.49 |
| 52-week low | $113.66 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~1.85% (~14.4m shares short, down ~8% month-over-month) |
| Days to cover | ~4 (approximate, based on recent average volume) |
7. What Are They Building
Duke’s growth programme centres on its $103bn 2026–2030 capital plan, roughly 65% of which is earmarked for grid infrastructure and power generation. The company has begun construction on more than 5 GW of new natural-gas generation in the Carolinas and Indiana, is expanding transmission and distribution to serve rising load, and is evaluating new nuclear options. Data centres are the swing factor: Duke has signed electric-service agreements for over 4.5 GW of cumulative contracted hyperscale load, added 2.7 GW of contracted data centres in Q1 2026, and reports a multi-GW high-confidence late-stage pipeline. Funding is supported by partnerships such as Brookfield’s minority investment in Duke Energy Florida, the first tranche of which closed in March 2026 for $2.8bn in proceeds.
8. Competitive Landscape
Duke competes with other large US regulated and integrated utilities. Market caps are approximate as of May 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (May 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy (NEE) | ~$181bn | FY2025 adjusted EPS $3.71; 8%+ EPS CAGR target; FPL + NextEra Energy Resources |
| American Electric Power (AEP) | ~$69.5bn | Pure-play regulated transmission & distribution across 11 states |
| Dominion Energy (D) | ~$54.3bn | Agreed to be acquired by NextEra in an all-stock merger (pending) |
9. Leadership & Ownership
Harry Sideris is President and Chief Executive Officer, having stepped into the role in April 2025 after a long career at the company; he also serves on the board. Recent insider activity includes routine equity-compensation vesting and a pre-disclosed open-market sale by the CEO, with Sideris retaining a substantial direct holding afterwards.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry K. Sideris (CEO) | 08 May 2026 | Sale | 20,000 | $124.37 | ~$2.49m | Open market |
| Harry K. Sideris (CEO) | 01 Apr 2026 | Tax withholding | 2,016 | $130.90 | ~$264k | RSU vesting |
10. Risks
- Financing & leverage (Financial): A record $103bn capital plan funded with rising debt (~$80.1bn long-term at year-end 2025) leaves Duke reliant on continuous access to capital; higher rates lift interest costs.
- Negative free cash flow (Financial): Capex exceeds operating cash flow, so the plan depends on debt issuance and asset partnerships proceeding as expected.
- Regulatory & affordability (Regulatory): Rate cases, data-centre tariff legislation and consumer-advocate scrutiny in the Carolinas and Indiana could limit recoverable returns.
- Construction & execution (Operational): Building more than 5 GW of new gas generation and large grid projects carries permitting, supply-chain and cost-overrun risk.
- Demand concentration (Operational): Heavy reliance on data-centre load means a slowdown in that demand would weaken the growth case.
- Weather & catastrophe (Macro): Hurricanes and severe storms in the Southeast can drive significant unplanned costs.
11. Recent Developments
- 05 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results beat. Duke reported adjusted EPS of $1.93 (GAAP $1.97) on revenue of $9.18bn, both ahead of expectations, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 and a 5–7% long-term growth rate.
- 05 May 2026 — Data-centre momentum. The company added 2.7 GW of contracted data-centre load in the quarter, building on more than 4.5 GW of cumulative contracted hyperscale agreements.
- 03 Mar 2026 — Brookfield Florida tranche closes. Duke closed the first tranche of Brookfield’s minority investment in Duke Energy Florida, receiving $2.8bn in proceeds toward its capital plan.
- 25 Apr 2026 — $103bn capital plan in focus. Duke detailed an industry-record five-year plan as data-centre demand and customer affordability took centre stage.
12. Key Dates
- 05 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 financial results (expected, based on prior-year timing)
- 16 Sep 2026 — approximate next quarterly dividend payment date
- 31 Dec 2030 — horizon for the $103bn five-year capital plan
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