UK Stocks

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust plc (LSE: SMT) is a large UK-listed closed-end investment trust managed by Baillie Gifford & Co, with the objective of generating long-term total returns from a global portfolio of approximately 100 listed and unlisted growth companies (per Scottish Mortgage's investor disclosures and yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26). SpaceX was the largest single contributor to returns and represented over 19% of total assets at year-end (per the FY2026 annual results). All figures in pounds sterling (GBP).

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Name	Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust plc (per the FY2026 annual results, year ended 31 March 2026)
Ticker / Exchange	SMT / London Stock Exchange Main Market (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26)
Sector / Industry	Closed-end investment trust — global growth (per Scottish Mortgage / Baillie Gifford disclosures)
FY2026 NAV per share total return	+27.4% (per the FY2026 annual results, year ended 31 March 2026)
FY2026 revenue / operating income	not applicable — investment trust; SMT does not report operating-company revenue or operating income
FY2026 free cash flow	not applicable — investment trust
Gross margin	not applicable — investment trust
Net margin	not applicable — investment trust
Employees	None directly — investment management is performed by Baillie Gifford & Co (per Scottish Mortgage / Baillie Gifford disclosures)
Manager (lead managers)	Tom Slater (lead) and Lawrence Burns (deputy), Baillie Gifford Long Term Global Growth team (per Scottish Mortgage disclosures)
Headquarters	Edinburgh, Scotland (Baillie Gifford head office) (per public corporate disclosure)
Website	scottishmortgage.com (per public corporate disclosure)
Fiscal year-end	31 March (per the FY2026 annual results)
Next NAV update / results	FY2026 annual results published; next scheduled update date not disclosed in this report's source data
Dividend	4.57p per share, +4.3%, 43rd consecutive year of increases (per the FY2026 annual results)
Ongoing charges	0.33%, no performance fee (per the FY2026 annual results)
Gearing	11% of net assets (per the FY2026 annual results)

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• NAV per share rose strongly year on year.
• SpaceX was the largest single contributor to returns. Per the FY2026 annual results: SpaceX was the largest single contributor and represented over 19% of total assets at year-end; it filed for an IPO after the year-end. Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS: SpaceX was carried at approximately $1.25tn following that revaluation.
• Very low ongoing charges with no performance fee. Per the FY2026 annual results: ongoing charges were 0.33% with no performance fee — low relative to actively managed fund alternatives.
• Long unbroken dividend-growth record. Per the FY2026 annual results: the dividend was raised 4.3% to 4.57p per share, the 43rd consecutive year of dividend increases.

Bear Case

• Single-position concentration on SpaceX. Per the FY2026 annual results: SpaceX represented over 19% of total assets at year-end — any future downward revaluation of this single unquoted holding would directly impair NAV.
• Unquoted-holding valuations are less observable than listed quotes. Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS: the SpaceX carrying value was adjusted to approximately $1.25tn via a valuation event rather than a continuous market quote; unquoted valuations are inherently less observable and can lag listed-market moves. Specific valuation methodology detail is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Discount/premium volatility.
• Gearing amplifies losses on the downside. Per the FY2026 annual results: gearing was 11% of net assets — structural debt enhances returns on the upside but amplifies losses on the downside.
• Reliance on SpaceX IPO anticipation. Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS and contemporaneous coverage: the recent move to a premium has been driven by anticipation of a SpaceX IPO; if the IPO is delayed, repriced or does not proceed on expected terms, sentiment-driven premium support could unwind. The IPO timing beyond "post year-end filing" is not disclosed in this report's source data.

3. What Does Scottish Mortgage Actually Do?

Scottish Mortgage is a UK closed-end investment trust, not an operating company, so operating-company metrics such as segment revenue, products and a "what it sells" breakdown are not applicable — investment trust.

Per Scottish Mortgage's investor disclosures and yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): the trust invests in a global portfolio of approximately 100 listed and unlisted growth companies, managed under a long-term, low-turnover approach by Baillie Gifford's Long Term Global Growth team. The only specific holding disclosed in this report's source data is SpaceX, which the FY2026 annual results identify as the largest single contributor to returns and over 19% of total assets at year-end. Specific other holdings and their weights are not disclosed in this report's source data.

In plain English: Scottish Mortgage gives investors a single listed share that owns a slice of a Baillie Gifford-managed global growth portfolio spanning both listed and unlisted (private) companies — including SpaceX, which retail investors cannot easily access directly.

4. The Business Model

Per Scottish Mortgage's investor disclosures and the FY2026 annual results: Scottish Mortgage operates as a closed-end investment trust. It holds a portfolio of listed and unlisted growth companies, charges a low all-in management cost (ongoing charges of 0.33%, no performance fee, per the FY2026 annual results), and uses structural gearing (11% of net assets at FY2026 year-end, per the FY2026 annual results) to amplify returns.

Operating-company business-model elements — unit economics, gross margin, distribution channels and product mix — are not applicable to an investment trust. The closed-end structure is the key differentiator: it lets the manager hold illiquid private positions (such as SpaceX) without being forced to sell to meet redemptions.

5. Financial Health

Scottish Mortgage is an investment trust — "financial health" in the operating-company sense (revenue trend, operating income, margins) does not apply.

NAV and total-return performance (per the FY2026 annual results, year ended 31 March 2026):

Metric	FY2026	FY2025
NAV per share total return	+27.4%	not disclosed in this report's source data
NAV per share (book / debt at book)	1,282.0p	1,006.0p
NAV per share (fair value / debt at fair value)	1,315.8p	1,037.0p
Ongoing charges	0.33% (no performance fee)	not disclosed in this report's source data
Gearing (% of net assets)	11%	not disclosed in this report's source data
Dividend per share	4.57p (+4.3%; 43rd consecutive annual increase)	not disclosed in this report's source data

For an investment trust, market cap measures price times shares rather than an "enterprise value" applicable to operating companies.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Shares outstanding	~1,102.9m (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26)
Ongoing charges	0.33%, no performance fee (per the FY2026 annual results)
Gearing	11% of net assets (per the FY2026 annual results)

(Note: operating-company valuation ratios such as P/S, EV/EBITDA, ROE and operating/net margin are not applicable to a closed-end investment trust.)

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Per the FY2026 annual results and the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS:

• SpaceX IPO. Per the FY2026 annual results: SpaceX filed for an IPO after the year-end. Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS: SpaceX was carried at approximately $1.25tn following the revaluation; the IPO is a forward catalyst for NAV and for the trust's discount/premium. Specific IPO timing is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Continued unlisted-company exposure. Per Scottish Mortgage's disclosures: a meaningful share of the portfolio remains allocated to unlisted growth companies, with SpaceX (over 19% of total assets at year-end, per the FY2026 annual results) the largest. Other specific unlisted names and weights are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Share buybacks. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): the trust conducted multiple buyback transactions in May 2026 (see Section 9); the buyback authority is used to manage the discount.

8. Competitive Landscape

Scottish Mortgage is a closed-end investment trust rather than an operating company, so a conventional peer table of operating companies (revenue, gross margin, P/S) is not applicable — investment trust. Peer-trust market data is not disclosed in this report's source data.

Per Scottish Mortgage's disclosures: the trust competes for UK retail and institutional capital against other global-growth investment trusts and open-ended global/technology funds. The names, tickers and market data of specific peer trusts are not disclosed in this report's source data and are not asserted here. Scottish Mortgage's principal differentiation is its meaningful unlisted-company allocation — most notably SpaceX (over 19% of total assets at year-end, per the FY2026 annual results) — combined with very low ongoing charges of 0.33% (per the FY2026 annual results).

9. Leadership and Ownership

Per Scottish Mortgage's investor disclosures: the trust is managed by Baillie Gifford & Co under an investment-management agreement. The lead manager is Tom Slater and the deputy is Lawrence Burns, of Baillie Gifford's Long Term Global Growth team. The Board of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust plc provides governance; specific 2026 Board composition is not disclosed in this report's source data.

Top institutional shareholders reported by yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26) — these are small ETF / index-fund positions only:

Holder	% held	Shares
EQ Advisors Trust – International Equity Index Portfolio	0.01%	182,919
HC Capital Trust – Institutional International Equity Portfolio	0.01%	105,000
EQ Advisors Trust – International Value Managed Volatility Portfolio	~0.00%	58,354

(The bulk of Scottish Mortgage's register sits in UK nominee / platform accounts and is not separately broken out in this report's source data. The yfinance "Value" fields for these positions appear inconsistent in currency units and are therefore omitted.)

Per yfinance insider/transaction data (pulled 2026-05-26): the trust itself conducted multiple share buyback / reduction transactions in May 2026, including buy-backs of 2,200,000 shares (2026-05-21) and 1,500,000 shares (2026-05-19), and further reductions through 2026-05-06 to 2026-05-18. No individual-director dealing is disclosed in this report's source data.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Single-position concentration on SpaceX (Concentration): Per the FY2026 annual results (year ended 31 March 2026): SpaceX represented over 19% of total assets at year-end — a downward revaluation of this single unquoted holding would directly impair NAV.
• Unquoted-holding valuation risk (Operational): Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS: SpaceX's carrying value was set at approximately $1.25tn via a valuation event rather than a continuous market quote; unquoted valuations are less observable than listed quotes and may lag listed-market drawdowns.
• Structural gearing amplifies downside (Financial): Per the FY2026 annual results: gearing was 11% of net assets — debt enhances returns on the upside but amplifies losses on the downside.
• Dependence on SpaceX IPO anticipation (Market & Demand): Per the 01 April 2026 NAV/SpaceX RNS and contemporaneous coverage: the recent premium has been supported by anticipation of a SpaceX IPO; delay or repricing of that event could unwind premium support.
• Manager / key-person risk (Operational): Per Scottish Mortgage's disclosures: lead manager Tom Slater and deputy Lawrence Burns drive portfolio construction; departure or strategy drift would be material to the equity story.
• Cybersecurity at the manager and administration (Cyber & Physical): Standard operational consideration for an investment trust — cyber incidents at Baillie Gifford or the trust's administrators could disrupt trading and shareholder services. Specific incident disclosure is not in this report's source data.
• Regulatory and tax-regime change (Regulatory): UK investment-trust tax treatment and regulatory status are subject to ongoing change. Specific FY2026 regulatory disclosures are not in this report's source data.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 2026-05-21 — Scottish Mortgage share buyback: Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): the trust bought back 2,200,000 shares. Source: yfinance insider/transaction data (pulled 2026-05-26).
• 2026-05-19 — Scottish Mortgage share buyback: Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): the trust bought back 1,500,000 shares. Source: yfinance insider/transaction data (pulled 2026-05-26).

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• SpaceX IPO (timing not disclosed in this report's source data): Per the FY2026 annual results: SpaceX filed for an IPO post year-end; the event is a forward catalyst for NAV and the trust's discount/premium. Specific date is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Next NAV update / monthly factsheet: Scottish Mortgage publishes regular NAV updates; the specific next date is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• FY2027 results (year ending 31 March 2027): The next full-year reporting cycle follows the 31 March fiscal year-end; the specific publication date is not disclosed in this report's source data.

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Last Updated: 22 October 2026

GSK plc is a UK-headquartered biopharma group that sells specialty medicines, vaccines and general medicines worldwide, with HIV medicines sold through its majority-owned ViiV Healthcare. Luke Miels took over as chief executive on 1 January 2026, and since the last version of this report (18 May 2026) the group has bought Nuvalent for about US$10.6bn, written off camlipixant after failed phase III trials, and won a run of US approvals, including Hibsago for chronic hepatitis B on 20 October 2026. Q3 2026 results are due on 28 October. Every figure below comes from GSK's results announcements, RNS notifications and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings anywhere in it.

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / exchange	GSK.L — London Stock Exchange (NYSE ADS: GSK; one ADS represents two ordinary shares)
Sector	Pharmaceuticals — specialty medicines, vaccines and general medicines
Revenue (FY2025)	£32,667m turnover, up 4% at actual exchange rates (FY2024: £31,376m)
Operating profit (FY2025)	£7,932m total; £9,783m core (29.9% core margin)
Earnings per share (FY2025)	Total EPS 141.1p; core EPS 172.0p
Dividend per share (FY2025)	66p; 70p expected for 2026
Free cash flow (FY2025)	£4,029m on GSK's definition, up 41%
Net debt	£14,453m at 31 December 2025; £15,132m at 30 June 2026, before paying for Nuvalent
Employees	About 68,300 on average during 2025 (FY2025 Form 20-F; 2024: 69,305)
CEO / Leadership	Luke Miels, Chief Executive Officer (since 1 January 2026); Julie Brown, Chief Financial Officer; Sir Jonathan Symonds, Chair
Headquarters	79 New Oxford Street, London

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Specialty medicines driving growth: Specialty Medicines sales rose 17% at constant exchange rates in 2025 to £13,474m, with oncology up 43%, and the segment is guided to low double-digit growth in 2026.
• A run of new approvals: US approvals in 2026 include Utebzi (17 June), Jideytro (22 July), Jemperli in rectal cancer (19 October) and Hibsago for hepatitis B (20 October), after five major FDA approvals in 2025.
• Guidance pointing up: 2026 guidance at constant exchange rates is turnover growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit growth of 7% to 9%, both in the upper half, and the 2031 sales ambition of more than £40bn was reaffirmed.
• Strong cash generation: free cash flow rose 41% to £4,029m in 2025, the dividend rose to 66p and a £2bn buyback was completed in June 2026.
• Long-acting HIV medicines: Cabenuva and Apretude passed £1bn of sales in H1 2026 and made up 35% of US HIV sales in Q2, the base ViiV is building on ahead of dolutegravir patent expiry.

Bear Case

• Dolutegravir patent cliff: HIV was 23.5% of 2025 sales and the dolutegravir-based medicines lose exclusivity between 2028 and 2030, a gap the pipeline must fill.
• Pipeline setbacks: camlipixant was stopped after phase III results in July 2026, causing a £1.3bn impairment that cut Q2 2026 total EPS by 69%.
• US pricing pressure: GSK signed a most-favoured-nation pricing agreement with the US government in December 2025, and US Medicare redesign helped push Trelegy sales down 7% in Q2 2026.
• More debt after Nuvalent: net debt was £15.1bn at 30 June 2026 before the roughly US$9.4bn net cost of Nuvalent, and 2026 interest cost guidance rose to about £800m.
• Vaccines flat: Vaccines grew only 2% in 2025, US Shingrix demand grew 3% in Q2 2026, and the segment is guided to be broadly stable to low single-digit growth.

3. Revenue Segments

GSK reports three product groups. The figures below are FY2025 turnover from the full-year results announcement of 4 February 2026.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Specialty Medicines — HIV (£7,687m)	23.5%	ViiV Healthcare's HIV treatment and prevention medicines, including dolutegravir-based Dovato and Triumeq and long-acting Cabenuva and Apretude.
Specialty Medicines — Respiratory, Immunology & Inflammation (£3,810m)	11.7%	Nucala, Benlysta and Exdensur (depemokimab) for severe asthma, COPD, lupus and related conditions.
Specialty Medicines — Oncology (£1,977m)	6.1%	Jemperli, Zejula, Ojjaara and Blenrep, plus Jideytro from the Nuvalent acquisition.
Vaccines (£9,157m)	28.0%	Shingrix for shingles (£3,558m), meningitis vaccines (£1,583m), Arexvy for RSV (£593m), flu and established vaccines.
General Medicines (£10,036m)	30.7%	Inhaled respiratory medicines led by Trelegy (£3.0bn) and other established medicines including antibiotics.

By region, 2025 sales were £16,859m in the US, £7,533m in Europe and £8,275m in International markets. Compare pharma names on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. GSK discovers, develops and sells patented medicines and vaccines, earning high margins while patents run and then reinvesting in research. In 2025 core operating profit was £9,783m on £32,667m of turnover, a 29.9% core margin, and royalty income added £879m.

The moat. Patents and the complexity of making biologics and vaccines protect its main products. GSK is one of a handful of companies with global vaccine scale, and ViiV is a leader in HIV, where long-acting injectables are moving patients onto newer, protected regimens. The pipeline has 62 assets in clinical development and the company now expects more than 20 phase III starts in 2026.

Capital allocation. Priorities are investment in research and bolt-on deals, a progressive dividend (70p expected for 2026) and buybacks. A three-year programme announced in 2026 targets £1.9bn of annual cost savings by 2029, at a cost of £2.4bn.

5. Financial Health

GSK reports in pounds sterling under IFRS. FY2021 and FY2022 turnover and total EPS are restated to continuing operations, excluding the Haleon consumer healthcare business demerged in July 2022, and EPS reflects the July 2022 share consolidation. Turnover and long-term borrowings come from GSK's SEC XBRL filings (CIK 0001131399).

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	24,696	+1.4%	82.9p	110.3p	80.0p‡	£20,572m
FY2022	29,324	+18.7%	110.8p	139.7p	61.25p‡	£17,035m
FY2023	30,328	+3.4%	121.6p	155.1p	58.0p	£15,205m
FY2024	31,376	+3.5%	63.2p	159.3p	61.0p	£14,637m
FY2025	32,667	+4.1%	141.1p	172.0p	66.0p	£14,708m

GAAP EPS is IFRS total basic EPS from continuing operations. Adjusted EPS is GSK's core EPS (called adjusted EPS before 2024), which excludes amortisation and impairment of intangibles, major restructuring, legal and other specified items. FY2021 growth is against restated FY2020 turnover of £24,354m. ‡ The FY2021 dividend of 80p was declared before the demerger and share consolidation and covered the whole group; the FY2022 dividend of 61.25p per share is stated after the consolidation. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at each year end (ifrs-full:LongtermBorrowings); short-term borrowings were a further £3,012m at the end of FY2025. FY2024 total EPS was reduced by Zantac litigation charges.

Quarter / Half	Revenue (£m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	8,409	50.5p	10.8p
Q1 2026	7,629	46.5p	43.2p
Q4 2025	8,618	25.5p	15.8p
Q3 2025	8,547	55.0p	49.9p
Q2 2025	7,986	46.5p	35.5p
Q1 2025	7,516	44.9p	39.7p
FY2025 total	32,667	172.0p	141.1p

Adjusted EPS is core EPS; Q1 2025 core EPS is derived from the H1 2025 total of 91.4p less Q2's 46.5p. Q2 2026 total EPS fell 69% mainly because of a £1.3bn impairment, largely for camlipixant. Q3 2026 results are due on 28 October 2026.

Cash flow and balance sheet (FY2025). Net cash from operating activities was £7,741m. Capital expenditure was £2,985m (£1,348m on property, plant and equipment and £1,637m on intangible assets). Depreciation and amortisation was £2,314m. Cash and cash equivalents were £3,397m (£3,406m including liquid investments), against total borrowings of £17,720m and net debt of £14,453m. Zantac settlement payments were £1,195m in the year.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Free cash flow (FY2025)	£4,756m on a simple basis (operating cash flow £7,741m minus capital expenditure £2,985m); £4,029m on GSK's own definition, which also deducts interest, dividends to minorities and other items
EBITDA (FY2025)	About £10,246m (total operating profit £7,932m plus depreciation and amortisation £2,314m, the narrower XBRL depreciation and amortisation figure excluding impairments)
Net debt / EBITDA	About 1.4x at 31 December 2025 (net debt £14,453m / EBITDA about £10,246m), before the Nuvalent acquisition
Core operating margin	29.9% in FY2025
Core EPS (FY2025)	172.0p; 2026 guidance of 7% to 9% growth at constant exchange rates, lower half of the range
Dividend per share	66p for FY2025; 70p expected for 2026
Shares in issue	4,045m voting shares at 30 September 2026 (4,316m issued less 271m in treasury)
Short interest (% of float)	About 0.81% of the NYSE ADS float (14.8m ADS sold short at 30 September 2026, MarketBeat). For the London line the Financial Conduct Authority publishes only aggregate net short positions at or above 0.2% since 13 July 2026; the most recent individual disclosure found was 0.55% (Millennium International Management, 29 May 2026). Verify at fca.org.uk.
Days to cover	About 4.1 days for the NYSE ADS (30 September 2026, MarketBeat)

7. What Are They Building

Oncology through acquisition. Nuvalent, bought for about US$10.6bn and completed on 15 July 2026, brought Jideytro (zidesamtinib) for ROS1-positive lung cancer, approved in the US on 22 July 2026, and neladalkib for ALK-positive lung cancer, with a US decision date of 27 November 2026. GSK's B7-H3 antibody-drug conjugate Ris-Rez cut the risk of death by 54% against topotecan in a phase III trial in relapsed small-cell lung cancer run by partner Hansoh in China. A trispecific T-cell engager for myeloma was licensed from Chimagen in September 2026 for up to US$750m.

Hepatitis B and infectious disease. Hibsago (bepirovirsen) was approved in Japan on 24 August 2026 and in the US on 20 October 2026, ahead of its 26 October decision date. Utebzi (tebipenem), an oral antibiotic, won US approval on 17 June 2026, and an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine moved into phase III on 1 September 2026.

Immunology and liver disease. Exdensur (depemokimab), a twice-yearly injection for severe asthma, was approved in the US on 16 December 2025, with EGPA data expected in H2 2026. Efimosfermin, acquired with Boston Pharmaceuticals, is in phase III for MASH, and ozureprubart came with RAPT Therapeutics (completed 3 March 2026). 35Pharma, completed on 15 April 2026, added HS235 for pulmonary hypertension.

Manufacturing and research sites. GSK plans to invest US$30bn in US manufacturing and research over five years, including a new biologics factory in Upper Merion, Pennsylvania, and in July 2026 announced a new flagship research centre on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus in the UK.

8. Competitive Landscape

GSK competes with the large global pharma groups across vaccines, respiratory, HIV and oncology. Market caps are in US dollars from CompaniesMarketCap on 21 October 2026.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Merck & Co (MRK)	About US$370bn	FY2025 worldwide sales US$65.0bn, of which Keytruda US$31.7bn (Q4 2025 results release)
Novartis (NVS)	About US$293bn	FY2025 net sales US$54,532m (FY2025 Form 20-F)
AstraZeneca (AZN)	About US$261bn	FY2025 total revenue US$58,739m, up 9% (FY2025 results filed with the SEC)
Pfizer (PFE)	About US$170bn	FY2025 revenue US$62.6bn, down 2% operationally (full-year 2025 results release)
Sanofi (SNY)	About US$98bn	FY2025 net sales €43.6bn, up 9.9% at constant exchange rates (Q4 2025 earnings call summary)

GSK's 2025 turnover of £32.7bn is smaller than these peers in absolute terms; its growth in 2025 came mainly from specialty medicines, while vaccines and general medicines were broadly flat.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Luke Miels became Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on 1 January 2026, succeeding Emma Walmsley, who left the board on 31 December 2025. Julie Brown is Chief Financial Officer and Sir Jonathan Symonds is Chair. Roy Jakobs joined the board as a non-executive director on 9 July 2026. No discretionary on-market purchases by PDMRs were found in 2026; activity was plan vesting, sales to cover tax and dividend reinvestment.

The following PDMR dealings were disclosed through RNS notifications and SEC filings in 2026. A PDMR is a person discharging managerial responsibilities.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Julie Brown (CFO)	12 Oct 2026	Dividend reinvestment	2,409.639	Performance Share Plan shares in holding period
Julie Brown (CFO)	12 Oct 2026	Notional dividend reinvestment	1,863	Deferred Annual Bonus Plan
Luke Miels (CEO)	12 Oct 2026	Notional dividend reinvestment	1,413	Deferred Annual Bonus Plan
Maya Martinez-Davis (President, US)	22 Sep 2026	Notional acquisition	9.414 ADS	Executive Supplemental Savings Plan
Luke Miels (CEO)	13 Feb 2026	Sale to cover tax	15,579 (on vesting of 245,716)	2017 Performance Share Plan, 2023 award
Tony Wood (Chief Scientific Officer)	13 Feb 2026	Sale to cover tax	103,330 (on vesting of 219,851)	Performance Share Plan
David Redfern (President, Corporate Development)	13 Feb 2026	Sale to cover tax	80,511 (on vesting of 171,300)	Performance Share Plan
Deborah Waterhouse (CEO, ViiV Healthcare)	13 Feb 2026	Sale to cover tax	76,587 (on vesting of 162,949)	Performance Share Plan

10. Key Risks

• HIV loss of exclusivity (Commercial): dolutegravir-based medicines, the core of a £7.7bn HIV business, lose patent protection between 2028 and 2030; GSK says margins should stay stable to improving through that period, but delivery depends on long-acting medicines.
• US pricing and tariffs (Regulatory): the December 2025 most-favoured-nation agreement includes Medicaid pricing and launch-price commitments, Section 232 tariffs on imported patented drugs were proclaimed on 2 April 2026, and the US is 52% of sales.
• Pipeline attrition (R&D): the camlipixant failure cost £1.3bn, Zejula sales fell 34% in Q2 2026, and the >£40bn 2031 ambition relies on new launches succeeding.
• Vaccine demand and policy (Commercial): US Shingrix growth has slowed, Arexvy sales are modest, and GSK is monitoring changes to US vaccine policy and the paediatric schedule.
• Zantac litigation (Legal): about 13 state-court cases remain after settlements that cost £1,195m in cash in 2025.
• Currency (Financial): 52% of sales are in US dollars; GSK estimates a 10-cent move in the dollar against sterling changes core operating profit by about 8%.
• Leverage and integration (Financial): the Nuvalent, RAPT and 35Pharma deals add debt and integration work, with 2026 interest cost guided at about £800m.

11. Recent Developments

• 28 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Turnover £8,409m, up 5%, and core EPS 50.5p; total EPS fell 69% on the camlipixant impairment. 2026 guidance was reaffirmed with more precise ranges, and a new Cambridge research centre was announced.
• 01 Sep 2026 — mRNA flu vaccine to phase III. GSK said its mRNA seasonal influenza vaccine will advance to phase III.
• 13 Sep 2026 — Ris-Rez survival data. The B7-H3 antibody-drug conjugate cut the risk of death by 54% against topotecan in relapsed small-cell lung cancer in a phase III trial in China.
• 14 Sep 2026 — Jideytro first-line data. Positive registrational data for Jideytro in first-line ROS1-positive non-small-cell lung cancer.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Chimagen licence. Agreement to acquire a trispecific T-cell engager for multiple myeloma for up to US$750m.
• 06 Oct 2026 — Cabenuva data. Long-acting Cabenuva showed superior viral suppression versus daily oral therapy in people with viremia.
• 19 Oct 2026 — Jemperli approval. US accelerated approval for Jemperli in MSI-H/dMMR rectal cancer.
• 20 Oct 2026 — Hibsago approval. The FDA approved Hibsago (bepirovirsen) for chronic hepatitis B, ahead of the 26 October decision date.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 28 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results
• 12 Nov 2026 — ex-dividend date for the Q3 2026 dividend (ADS 13 Nov; record date 13 Nov)
• 27 Nov 2026 — US FDA decision date for neladalkib in ALK-positive lung cancer
• 07 Jan 2027 — Q3 2026 dividend payment date
• 03 Feb 2027 — FY2026 and Q4 2026 results
• 18 Feb 2027 — ex-dividend date for the Q4 2026 dividend
• 08 Apr 2027 — Q4 2026 dividend payment date
• Expected H2 2026 — Exdensur OCEAN trial results in EGPA, as guided at the Q2 2026 results

GSK describes its results and dividend dates as indicative. US and UK economic releases that move the dollar and sterling are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar. Discuss pharma results with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 13 May 2026

Fresnillo plc is a London-listed, Mexico-operating precious metals miner — the world's largest primary silver producer and one of Mexico's largest gold producers — founded in 1887 and headquartered at Calzada Legaria No. 549, Mexico City. The company trades in pence on the London Stock Exchange under the ticker FRES.L, reports its accounts in US dollars, and is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. (the long-standing controlling shareholder named in the company description in this report's source dataset). The most recent full reporting year captured in this report's source data — fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 — produced revenue of $4,561.2m, operating income of $2,291.2m, net income of $1,384.0m, diluted EPS of $1.878, operating cash flow of $2,289.7m and free cash flow of $1,889.6m on capex of $400.1m. Intraday on 13 May 2026 the stock traded at 3,640 GBp, capitalising the equity at approximately £26.82 billion at yfinance's mechanical convention. This research note is built entirely from the company's reported dataset and primary news URLs, with no analyst opinions or price targets included. Note: the dataset for this report contains no SEC 10-K or 20-F filing — Fresnillo plc is a UK-incorporated, London-listed issuer that reports under IFRS via its UK Annual Report and London Stock Exchange RNS announcements, and is not a US-listed registrant required to file a 10-K. As a result, mine-by-mine production splits across the seven named operating units (Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, Juanicipio); the silver / gold / lead / zinc revenue mix and by-product credit detail; per-ounce total cash cost and all-in sustaining cost (AISC) disclosures; the geographic and customer-concentration revenue mix; capex breakdown by project; ore-grade and reserves/resources progression; and the divisional MD&A narrative that would normally be sourced from a 10-K/20-F or the UK Annual Report are not quoted in this report. Investors should consult Fresnillo's investor-relations website at fresnilloplc.com directly for those details.

1. Company Snapshot

Name	Fresnillo plc
Ticker	FRES.L (London Stock Exchange)
Sector / Industry	Basic Materials / Other Precious Metals & Mining
Country of operations	Mexico
Reporting currency	US dollar (USD)
Trading currency (LSE)	British pence (GBp)
Latest fiscal-year revenue	$4,561.2 million (FY2025, ended 31 December 2025)
Latest fiscal-year net income	$1,384.0 million (FY2025)
Latest fiscal-year free cash flow	$1,889.6 million (FY2025)
Total assets	$7,279.3 million (end-FY2025)
Employees	7,177
CEO	Mr. Octavio M. Alvidrez
Headquarters	Calzada Legaria No. 549, Mexico City, Mexico
Website	fresnilloplc.com
Founded	1887
Parent	Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• FY2025 step-change: FY2025 was a step-change year on every reported income-statement line. Revenue grew from $3,496.4m in FY2024 to $4,561.2m in FY2025 (+30.46% YoY per revenue_growth_yoy), operating income grew from $915.5m to $2,291.2m (+150.3%), and reported net income grew from $140.9m to $1,384.0m (+881.8%). FY2025 diluted EPS of $1.878 is roughly 9.8× FY2024's $0.191 (per eps_growth_yoy of +8.83×). Operating margin re-expanded from 26.19% in FY2024 to 50.23% in FY2025 (per ratios.operating_margin) — a 2,404-basis-point widening in a single year.
• FCF momentum: Free cash flow stepped up sharply. FY2024 FCF of $929.3m grew to $1,889.6m in FY2025 (+103.3%), with operating cash flow of $2,289.7m comfortably absorbing capex of $400.1m.
• Net-cash balance sheet: The balance sheet flipped to a meaningful net-cash position in FY2025. Cash and equivalents grew from $1,110.4m at end-FY2024 to $2,663.7m at end-FY2025 (+139.9%), while total debt was broadly stable ($853.5m → $851.0m). On those numbers, end-FY2025 net debt is approximately −$1,812.8m (i.e., net cash of $1,812.8m), versus net debt of approximately +$414.4m at end-FY2023. The current ratio at end-FY2025 was 4.35× (per ratios.current_ratio), with current assets of $4,053.5m against current liabilities of $932.7m.
• Strong profitability: Profitability ratios were strong at the FY2025 mark. Per the dataset's ratios.* fields: gross margin 58.41%, operating margin 50.23%, net margin 30.34%, return on equity 29.87%, return on assets 19.01%, and debt-to-equity 0.18×. Those are the headline FY2025 profitability primitives.
• Market outperformance: Per the 6 May 2026 Proactive Investors recent_news entry, Fresnillo featured prominently in a broader market rally — "Fresnillo and Rolls lead soaring stocks as US 'close to' Iran deal" — evidencing the stock's role as one of the day's heaviest movers among UK blue chips.
• Light capex intensity: Capital intensity is light relative to peers. FY2025 capex of $400.1m on $4,561.2m of revenue is a capex-to-revenue ratio of 8.77%, materially lower than the typical 15–35% capex-to-revenue ratio of large-scale base-metals copper miners in build-out mode. That is a structural feature of a mature, producing precious-metals portfolio rather than a developing one.

Bear Case

• Depressed-base denominator effect: The FY2025 income-statement step-up is, in part, a re-rating off a depressed prior-year base. FY2024 net income of $140.9m and diluted EPS of $0.191 were materially below FY2022 ($271.9m / $0.369) and even below FY2023 ($233.9m / $0.317), so the FY2024 → FY2025 percentage-change figures (+881.8% net income, +883% EPS) reflect both a depressed-prior-year denominator effect and a genuinely strong reporting year. Investors evaluating "what is normal" should triangulate against the four-year average rather than the FY2024 base.
• Silver production slipping: Per the 22 April 2026 Wall Street Journal recent_news entry, "Fresnillo's Quarterly Silver Production Slips. The miner's silver production fell 8.5% on lower ore grades and decreased volumes processed at its Saucito, Fresnillo and Juanicipio mines." That is a quarterly-volume data point — lower head grades and reduced mill throughput at three named operations — that pulls in the opposite direction from the income-statement step-up and is the type of operating warning that can persist across reporting periods.
• Declining capex / reinvestment risk: Capex has been declining across the four-year window — from $592.1m in FY2022 to $483.4m in FY2023, $370.5m in FY2024 and $400.1m in FY2025. While that supports near-term free cash flow, sustained underspend versus the size of the seven-mine operating portfolio can presage future production reductions if reserves-replacement spend is being deferred. The mine-by-mine sustaining-capex split, the reserves and resources position by mine, and the development-capex pipeline are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Total Mexico country concentration: Mexican country concentration is total. All seven operating mines named in the dataset's company.description field (Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, Juanicipio) are in Mexico, across the states of Zacatecas, Durango, Sonora and the Chihuahua/Durango border. Mexican mining taxation, water and energy-cost regulation, security and community-relations factors, and the federal regulatory environment (including the constitutional reform process announced under the current administration) are exposures that cannot be diversified within the portfolio. Specific exposure to Mexican mining royalty, special-mining-duty and corporate-income-tax rates is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Concentrated parent shareholding: Concentrated parent shareholder. The dataset's price.float_shares field of 183,877,057 against price.shares_outstanding of 736,893,589 implies a free float of approximately 24.95% — i.e., roughly three-quarters of the equity sits with the parent Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. and other strategic holders.
• Limited institutional transparency: The dataset's institutional-holder coverage is incomplete (a single small holder is recorded — see Section 9) and the insider-transactions file carries only blank rows for the named filers. Investors should consult Fresnillo's RNS notifications of major holdings (TR-1) directly for the current institutional register and director PDMR dealings.
• Production data gaps: Dataset gap on segment, production and regulatory detail. Because this report's source dataset contains no SEC 10-K, 20-F or annual-report extract, mine-by-mine silver and gold ounces produced, realised silver and gold prices ($/oz), total cash cost ($/oz silver equivalent) and all-in sustaining cost (AISC, $/oz), capex by project, ore-grade progression, reserves and resources progression, lease-liability detail, hedging position and the divisional MD&A narrative are not quoted in this article.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

Fresnillo plc, per the dataset's company.description, "mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico." The product set named in the description comprises "silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates" alongside "silver precipitates" and "gold/silver doré bars," with ancillary services that include leasing of mining equipment, mine project services and exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo is the world's largest primary silver producer by production volume (an industry-standard characterisation consistent with the company's seven-mine producing footprint, although the precise FY2025 global market-share percentage is not disclosed in this report's source data) and one of Mexico's largest gold producers.

The seven operating segments named in the dataset's company.description field are:

• Fresnillo mine — silver mine in the state of Zacatecas; the flagship asset and the company's namesake operation.
• Saucito mine — silver mine in the state of Zacatecas.
• Ciénega mine — gold and silver mine in the state of Durango.
• Herradura mine — gold mine in the state of Sonora.
• Noche Buena mine — gold mine in the state of Sonora.
• San Julián mine — silver, gold, lead and zinc mine on the border of the Chihuahua/Durango states.
• Juanicipio mine — silver mine in the state of Zacatecas; joint-venture interest with Pan American Silver Corp. (per the 9 April 2026 Zacks recent_news entry referenced in Section 11, Pan American Silver is "eyeing 14% silver output growth in 2026, with Juanicipio's full-year contribution set to boost production").

Revenue is generated from four metals. Per Fresnillo's H1 2025 interim results (six months to 30 June 2025, the most granular primary-source breakdown available), adjusted revenue split by metal was as follows. In H1 2025, gold overtook silver as the largest single revenue source for the first time, driven by record gold prices.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Gold	48% (~$959.8m, H1 2025 adj.)	Gold doré and concentrate from Herradura (open-pit, heap-leach; the largest gold mine), Ciénega, Saucito, Noche Buena, San Julián Veins, and Fresnillo mines. Gold is the primary product at Herradura and a co-product at most silver mines. FY2025 attributable gold production: 600.3 koz, above guidance. Gold overtook silver as #1 revenue contributor in 2025 on record gold prices (+44% YoY avg realised).
Silver	42% (~$827.7m, H1 2025 adj.)	Silver concentrate and doré from Fresnillo (flagship mine, Zacatecas), Saucito (Zacatecas), Juanicipio (Zacatecas; JV with Pan American Silver, which acquired MAG Silver in 2025), and San Julián Veins. Fresnillo is the world's largest primary silver producer. FY2025 attributable silver production: 48.7 moz (down 13.5% vs 2024, partly due to closure of San Julián DOB).
Zinc	7% (~$135.9m, H1 2025 adj.)	Zinc concentrate from Juanicipio, Saucito, and Fresnillo mines as a by-product. Zinc revenue is declining: zinc production at Ciénega was discontinued from August 2025. FY2026 zinc contribution will be lower.
Lead	3% (~$59.6m, H1 2025 adj.)	Lead concentrate from Fresnillo, Saucito, and Juanicipio mines as a by-product of silver ore processing. Lead and zinc are recovered from the same polymetallic ore bodies as silver.

Note: Percentages are from the H1 2025 adjusted revenue breakdown (per Fresnillo plc interim results to 30 June 2025, published 30 July 2025). The H2 2025 mix shifted further toward gold as gold prices continued rising and Ciénega zinc production ceased. Full-year FY2025 metal revenue split is in Fresnillo's FY2025 Annual Report at fresnilloplc.com/investors. FCF = operating cash flow minus capex.

The dataset does not separately disclose physical-volume metrics — total silver produced (Moz), gold produced (Moz), lead and zinc produced (tonnes), realised silver price ($/oz), realised gold price ($/oz), total cash cost ($/oz), all-in sustaining cost ($/oz), tonnage of ore mined and milled, head grade, recovery rate, or mineral reserves and resources progression — that would normally be the leading volume-and-pricing primitives for a primary precious-metals miner. Those metrics are similarly not disclosed in this report's source data.

4. The Business Model

Fresnillo's economics are the standard precious-metals primary-producer formula: silver doré, gold doré, silver concentrate, lead concentrate and zinc concentrate sold into the global precious-metals market at US-dollar reference prices (the LBMA silver and gold benchmarks for refined precious metals; concentrate sales priced off LME for base-metal by-products), against a cost base that combines local-currency Mexican operating spend (mine-site labour, electricity, diesel, contractors, royalties, security, water and regulatory levies) with hard-currency capex (mining fleet, mill expansions, tailings-dam construction, exploration spend). The principal moats are the orebody quality and life of each of the seven named mines, the long-established processing and refining infrastructure across Zacatecas, Durango and Sonora states, the operating relationship with parent Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. (a long-established Mexican integrated mining and metals group), and the company's reputation as the world's largest primary silver producer with multi-decade Mexican operating history dating to its 1887 founding.

The FY2025 income statement quantifies the model at the group level (all figures in USD millions unless stated):

• Revenue: $4,561.2m (+30.46% YoY, per revenue_growth_yoy)
• Cost of revenue: $1,897.1m → gross profit $2,664.1m, gross margin 58.41% (per ratios.gross_margin)
• Operating expenses: $372.9m → operating income $2,291.2m, operating margin 50.23% (per ratios.operating_margin)
• Interest expense: $63.1m
• Pretax income: $2,082.0m
• Tax provision: $508.2m (effective tax rate 24.4% on pretax income)
• Net income: $1,384.0m → net margin 30.34% (per ratios.net_margin); diluted EPS $1.878
• Operating cash flow: $2,289.7m; capex: $400.1m → free cash flow $1,889.6m (FCF margin 41.4%)
• Total assets: $7,279.3m; total liabilities: $2,204.6m; total equity: $4,632.9m; debt-to-equity 0.18× (per ratios.debt_to_equity)
• Total debt: $851.0m; long-term debt: $839.9m; cash and equivalents: $2,663.7m; net debt approximately −$1,812.7m (net cash position)
• Return on equity 29.87%; return on assets 19.01% (per ratios.roe and ratios.roa)

The four-year operating-margin profile is volatile, which is typical for a single-commodity-class precious-metals miner where the realised silver and gold prices are the leading revenue primitive. Operating income was $294.1m (12.1% margin) in FY2022, $165.4m (6.1%) in FY2023, $915.5m (26.2%) in FY2024 and $2,291.2m (50.2%) in FY2025 — i.e., the FY2025 step-up in absolute operating dollars and percentage margin is consistent with a meaningful realised-silver-and-gold-price tailwind layered on top of the company's existing producing portfolio. The realised silver and gold prices per period are not separately disclosed in this report's source data; an LBMA silver-price chart or the company's quarterly production report would carry that primitive.

Capital returns to shareholders stepped up materially in FY2025 in absolute terms. The four-year dividends-paid cadence is:

• FY2022: dividends paid $202.0m (the dataset's stock_buybacks field is null for every reported year — see note below)
• FY2023: dividends paid $108.3m
• FY2024: dividends paid $78.1m
• FY2025: dividends paid $653.6m

The dataset's stock_buybacks field is null for every reported year, i.e., the dataset gives no evidence of a buyback programme during the trailing window and the variable-dividend cadence is the sole shareholder-return mechanism visible in the source data. FY2025 dividends paid of $653.6m versus FY2025 free cash flow of $1,889.6m implies an FCF-to-dividend coverage of approximately 2.89×, leaving headroom even after the materially higher distribution.

Because this report has no 10-K/20-F or annual-report extract to draw from, the mine-by-mine attribution of revenue, EBITDA, capex and cash cost; the realised silver-price ($/oz), realised gold-price ($/oz), total cash cost ($/oz silver) and all-in sustaining cost ($/oz silver) progression; the by-product credit detail (gold credit on the silver mines; silver credit on the gold mines; lead and zinc credit at the polymetallic San Julián mine); the project-by-project capex breakdown for any expansion or sustaining programmes; the leaching, milling, smelting and refining capacity progression; the reserves and resources progression (proven, probable, measured, indicated, inferred); and the Mexican royalty, special-mining-duty and corporate-income-tax effective-rate breakdown are not disclosed in this report's source data — those details should be consulted in the company's published UK Annual Report and investor-day materials.

5. Financial Health

Four-year annual trend (USD millions, group, fiscal years ending 31 December)

Fiscal year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS ($)	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share ($)	Long-term debt (YE, $m)
FY2025	$4,561.2m	+30.5%	$1.878	—	~$0.89*	$839.9m
FY2024	$3,496.4m	+29.3%	$0.191	—	~$0.11*	$839.5m
FY2023	$2,705.1m	+11.2%	$0.317	—	~$0.15*	$861.7m
FY2022	$2,433.0m	n/a	$0.369	—	~$0.27*	$936.5m

*Dividend/share = total dividends paid (cash flow) ÷ 736.89m diluted shares; may include prior-year final dividend. Fresnillo reports under IFRS; no separate non-GAAP/adjusted EPS published. Long-term debt = noncurrent balance sheet figure. FCF = operating cash flow minus capex.

Full financial detail (FY2022–FY2025)

Metric	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue ($m)	2,433.0	2,705.1	3,496.4	4,561.2
Revenue growth YoY	n/a	+11.18%	+29.25%	+30.46%
Cost of revenue ($m)	1,897.0	2,201.8	2,250.1	1,897.1
Gross profit ($m)	536.0	503.2	1,246.3	2,664.1
Gross margin	22.0%	18.6%	35.6%	58.41%
Operating income ($m)	294.1	165.4	915.5	2,291.2
Operating margin	12.1%	6.1%	26.2%	50.23%
Interest expense ($m)	78.9	84.5	70.4	63.1
Pretax income ($m)	248.6	114.0	743.9	2,082.0
Tax provision ($m)	(59.7)	(174.3)	517.2	508.2
Net income ($m)	271.9	233.9	140.9	1,384.0
Diluted EPS ($)	0.369	0.317	0.191	1.878
EPS growth YoY	n/a	−14.1%	−39.7%	+883.3%
Operating cash flow ($m)	502.2	425.9	1,299.8	2,289.7
Capex ($m)	(592.1)	(483.4)	(370.5)	(400.1)
Free cash flow ($m)	(89.9)	(57.5)	929.3	1,889.6
Cash & equivalents ($m)	969.1	534.6	1,110.4	2,663.7
Total debt ($m)	1,278.6	949.0	853.5	851.0
Long-term debt ($m)	936.5	861.7	839.5	839.9
Net debt / (net cash) ($m)	309.6	414.4	(256.9)	(1,812.7)
Total equity ($m)	3,685.7	3,771.9	3,855.3	4,632.9
Total assets ($m)	5,914.3	5,737.6	5,880.5	7,279.3
Diluted shares (m)	736.89	736.89	736.89	736.89
Dividends paid ($m)	(202.0)	(108.3)	(78.1)	(653.6)

Four structural patterns dominate the trend. First, revenue has accelerated meaningfully across the window — from $2,433.0m in FY2022 to $4,561.2m in FY2025 (+87.5% over three years, per the dataset's annual revenue series). The FY2024 → FY2025 acceleration (+30.46% YoY) is the largest single-year revenue uplift in the dataset's four-year window. Second, gross margin re-expanded from 22.0% in FY2022 / 18.6% in FY2023 to 35.6% in FY2024 and 58.41% in FY2025 — a 3,981-basis-point widening from FY2023 trough to FY2025 peak, consistent with realised-silver-and-gold-price tailwinds layered on a roughly flat absolute cost-of-revenue line (cost-of-revenue was $1,897.0m in FY2022 and $1,897.1m in FY2025 — essentially identical in absolute terms across the three-year span, despite the meaningful revenue growth). Third, capex stepped down across the window — from $592.1m in FY2022 to $400.1m in FY2025 (−32.4% in three years) — which has been the leading driver of the FY2024 → FY2025 free cash flow inflection (from −$57.5m / −$89.9m in FY2023 and FY2022 to +$929.3m and +$1,889.6m in FY2024 and FY2025). Fourth, the balance sheet has flipped to a meaningful net-cash position. Cash and equivalents grew from $534.6m at end-FY2023 to $2,663.7m at end-FY2025 (+398%, almost a five-fold increase across two years), while total debt was paid down from $1,278.6m at end-FY2022 to $851.0m at end-FY2025 (−33.4%). End-FY2025 net cash of approximately $1,812.7m compares with end-FY2023 net debt of approximately $414.4m — a $2,227m swing in two years.

Operating cash flow grew sharply across the FY2023 → FY2025 window — from $425.9m to $1,299.8m (+205.2% YoY) to $2,289.7m (+76.2% YoY). The 5.4× increase in operating cash flow across two years explains both the dividend re-acceleration (FY2024 dividends $78.1m → FY2025 dividends $653.6m, a 7.4× year-on-year increase) and the net-cash build (≈$1,553m increase in cash and equivalents from FY2024 to FY2025). The reported net income line is more volatile than operating cash flow — FY2023 net income of $233.9m on FY2023 operating cash flow of $425.9m, and FY2024 net income of $140.9m on FY2024 operating cash flow of $1,299.8m — consistent with material non-cash items (depreciation and amortisation, deferred tax, working-capital movement, impairment / reversal-of-impairment) being a significant portion of the income statement for a fixed-asset-heavy mining business. The dataset does not separately disclose the depreciation-and-amortisation line or the deferred-tax reconciliation.

The dataset's financials_quarterly array is empty for FRES.L. Fresnillo publishes quarterly production reports (typically issued in mid-January, April, July and October) and half-year/full-year financial results (i.e., interim and annual rather than quarterly financial statements); the absence of the quarterly array in this dataset is consistent with that disclosure cadence and with the dataset's source (yfinance) not carrying the company's published quarterly production statistics. The data condition for the Section 5 Revenue + Gross Margin chart (≥3 quarters of both metrics) is therefore not met from this dataset, and that visual is intentionally not emitted in this section.

The balance sheet is liquid at the working-capital level. End-FY2025 current assets of $4,053.5m against current liabilities of $932.7m produces a current ratio of 4.35× (per ratios.current_ratio). End-FY2025 cash and equivalents of $2,663.7m represents 36.6% of total assets, an unusually cash-heavy mix that is consistent with a precious-metals miner in a strong realised-price year that has chosen to retain rather than fully distribute the cash. The dataset does not separately disclose lease liabilities, finance-lease commitments, the debt-instrument schedule, hedging position, covenant headroom, or the breakdown of cash held at parent versus operating subsidiaries — readers should consult Fresnillo's audited Annual Report for those details.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Metric	Value	Source / note
Shares outstanding	736,893,589	Source: yfinance
Float	183,877,057 (≈24.95% of shares out)	Source: yfinance — consistent with parent Industrias Peñoles holding the controlling stake
Artefact P/E ratio (GBp price ÷ USD EPS — not economic P/E; see note)	1,938.23×	Mechanical GBp-price-over-USD-EPS artefact — not the economic trailing P/E; see note below
EV / Revenue	5.56×	From ratios.ev_revenue
Gross margin	58.41%	FY2025, per ratios.gross_margin
Operating margin	50.23%	FY2025, per ratios.operating_margin
Net margin	30.34%	FY2025, per ratios.net_margin
Return on equity	29.87%	FY2025, per ratios.roe
Return on assets	19.01%	FY2025, per ratios.roa
Debt-to-equity	0.18×	FY2025, per ratios.debt_to_equity
Current ratio	4.35×	FY2025, per ratios.current_ratio
Most recent ex-dividend date	23 April 2026	From calendar.ex_dividend_date
FY2025 full-year results (per dataset)	3 March 2026	From calendar.next_earnings_date — date is now in the past relative to the 13 May 2026 publication date of this note; treated here as the FY2025 results-announcement date

Note on the currency-unit conventions in the dataset. Several of the dataset's ratios.* fields — notably ratios.pb of 5.79×, ratios.ps_trailing of 5.88× and ratios.ev_revenue of 5.56× — are computed with a mix of the GBp-mapped numerator (market cap) and the USD-denominated denominator (equity, revenue), which means each is mechanically distorted by an implicit GBP/USD scaling factor but is the figure carried in the source dataset.

Note on the dataset's ratios.pe_trailing of 1,938.23×. It is not the economic trailing P/E for the company.

Short interest (shares short, % of float, days to cover) and put/call ratio are not disclosed in this report's source data.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

The product set described in the dataset's company.description field comprises silver, gold, lead and zinc concentrates; silver precipitates; and gold/silver doré bars, alongside an exploration and administrative services capability and a mining-equipment leasing function. The seven reporting segments named in the description are Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián and Juanicipio — i.e., a seven-mine Mexican producing footprint spanning the states of Zacatecas (Fresnillo, Saucito, Juanicipio), Durango (Ciénega and the cross-border San Julián), Sonora (Herradura, Noche Buena) and Chihuahua (the cross-border San Julián).

• Per the 22 April 2026 Wall Street Journal recent_news entry, the quarterly silver-production figure fell 8.5% "on lower ore grades and decreased volumes processed at its Saucito, Fresnillo and Juanicipio mines" — i.e., three of the seven named operating mines saw negative operating-throughput developments in the most recent reporting period. That is an operating-performance data point rather than forward guidance.
• Per the 9 April 2026 Zacks recent_news entry, "PAAS eyes 14% silver output growth in 2026, with Juanicipio's full-year contribution set to boost production" — Pan American Silver (the joint-venture partner on the Juanicipio mine) flagged the asset as a meaningful contributor to its own 2026 production outlook, evidencing the strategic significance of Juanicipio within the broader Mexican silver-producing portfolio.

Specific FY2026 production guidance (ounces silver produced by mine, ounces gold produced by mine), FY2026 capex guidance ($/m by project), the project-by-project execution-milestone schedule for any sustaining or expansion programmes at the seven named mines, the realised-silver-price assumptions underpinning the FY2026 outlook, mineral reserves and resources replacement progression, exploration spend by greenfield and brownfield programme, and the detailed multi-year strategic targets that Fresnillo publishes alongside its full-year results and at its capital markets days are not disclosed in this report's source data — without a 10-K/20-F or annual-report extract, those quantitative production-and-capex pipeline details cannot be quoted here. Fresnillo publishes that material on its investor-relations website at fresnilloplc.com and in the quarterly production report it issues each January, April, July and October.

8. Competitive Landscape

Fresnillo competes in the global market for primary silver and gold, alongside lead and zinc by-product credits from its polymetallic operations. The principal competitive set comprises the global primary silver producers, Mexican-focused gold producers, and the silver/gold divisions of the diversified majors:

• Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ:PAAS, TSX:PAAS) — the principal Canadian-listed primary silver peer; also Fresnillo's joint-venture partner at the Juanicipio mine (per the 9 April 2026 Zacks recent_news entry).
• Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:PE&OLES) — Fresnillo's own controlling-parent company, listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange; a vertically-integrated Mexican mining and metals group whose precious-metals output, in part, flows from Fresnillo plc. The parent-subsidiary relationship makes the strict "competitor" framing inapt for Peñoles, but the parent is the dominant Mexican silver-and-gold producer when considered consolidated with Fresnillo.
• Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) — the largest US-listed primary silver producer; predominantly North America (US, Canada).
• First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG, TSX:AG) — a Canadian-listed primary silver producer with Mexican operations.
• Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE:CDE) — a US-listed silver and gold producer with operations across the Americas.
• Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE:EXK, TSX:EDR) — a Canadian-listed primary silver producer with Mexican operations.
• Polymetal International / Solidcore Resources — the global silver-and-gold producer historically with Russian and Kazakh operations; its competitive overlap with Fresnillo is in the global silver market rather than at the asset level.
• Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), Barrick Mining (NYSE:B, TSX:ABX) and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM, TSX:AEM) — the global gold majors; Fresnillo's gold mines (Herradura, Noche Buena, Ciénega) compete with these issuers' Mexican and North American gold output, though the diversified-major scale is materially larger than Fresnillo's gold-only production.

Named market-share percentages for these competitive sets are not disclosed in this report's source data. Global silver-production market shares are conventionally tracked by The Silver Institute (which publishes an annual World Silver Survey via Metals Focus), the World Gold Council (for gold), CRU and Wood Mackenzie. None of those primary tracking sources is present in this dataset, so comparative production-share figures cannot be quoted here. Because the data condition for the Section 8 Competitor Share chart (≥3 competitors with named market-share percentages from primary disclosure) is therefore not met, that visual is intentionally not emitted in this section.

Fresnillo's competitive position can be characterised qualitatively from what is available in this dataset:

• Scale. FY2025 revenue of $4,561.2m, operating income of $2,291.2m and 7,177 employees (per company.employees) position Fresnillo as one of the largest publicly-listed precious-metals producers globally — and the largest publicly-listed primary silver producer by production volume, an industry-standard descriptor consistent with the seven-mine portfolio (precise FY2025 global market-share percentage is not disclosed in this report's source data).
• Country concentration. All seven of the producing operations named in the dataset's company.description (Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, Juanicipio) are in Mexico — i.e., the franchise is single-country exposed at the production level (sales are global, but mining is concentrated in Zacatecas, Durango, Sonora and Chihuahua states).
• Margin profile. FY2025 gross margin of 58.41% and operating margin of 50.23% are very high relative to the typical precious-metals peer and reflect both (a) the realised-silver-and-gold-price tailwind of FY2025 (the absolute cost-of-revenue line was essentially flat year-over-year at $1,897.1m vs $1,897.0m in FY2022 while revenue grew 87.5% over the same span) and (b) the structural advantage of a long-established Mexican operating base with depreciated infrastructure and a low capex-to-revenue ratio (8.77% in FY2025, materially below the typical base-metals build-out range).
• Ownership structure. The dataset's price.float_shares field of 183,877,057 against price.shares_outstanding of 736,893,589 implies a free float of approximately 24.95%; the controlling parent Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. and other strategic holders together hold approximately 75% of the equity, consistent with a long-standing concentrated-controlling-shareholder structure rather than a fully-distributed register.
• Joint-venture exposure. The Juanicipio mine is held in joint venture with Pan American Silver Corp. (consistent with the 9 April 2026 Zacks recent_news entry that flagged Juanicipio's full-year contribution as material to Pan American's 2026 production outlook). The specific Fresnillo / Pan American Silver ownership percentage on Juanicipio is not disclosed in this report's source data — readers should consult Fresnillo's UK Annual Report and Pan American Silver's Annual Information Form for the precise JV ownership and accounting basis.

Peer	Key FY2025 metric
Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS)	Primary silver peer; JV partner at Fresnillo’s Juanicipio mine
Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL)	Largest US-listed primary silver producer; North American focus
First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG)	Canadian primary silver producer with Mexican operations
Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE)	US-listed silver and gold producer across the Americas
Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK)	Canadian primary silver producer with Mexican operations

Peer market caps not verified from primary sources during this session — confirm at respective IR pages.

9. Leadership and Ownership

CEO Octavio Alvidrez — Group Chief Executive Officer of Fresnillo plc (per company filings). Tenure, age, prior roles within the wider Industrias Peñoles group and remuneration data are not disclosed in this report's source data and are not asserted in this article. The company's UK Annual Report carries the formal Directors' Remuneration Report and the Chief Executive's biographical disclosure for readers requiring those details.

Headcount. 7,177 employees (per the company.employees field).

Board, executive committee and divisional leadership. Detailed leadership-team biographies, the full board-of-directors composition and the mine-by-mine general-manager listing are not disclosed in this report's source data — Fresnillo publishes that material in its UK Annual Report and on its corporate-website "Board and Management" page.

Institutional ownership. The dataset's holders.institutional_top array contains only a single small holding — Pacer Advisors, Inc. (298,889 shares, dataset-reported value $1,087,955,960, as of 31 March 2026, with pct_held of 0.04% — i.e., a rounded-to-tiny holding), which is plainly an incomplete view of the institutional register for a £26.8 billion UK-listed issuer. The dataset-reported value of approximately $1.09 billion against a 298,889-share position is mechanically implausible at any spot price for this stock (298,889 × 3,640 GBp = approximately £10.88m, not $1.09bn) and is treated here as a dataset transcription artefact rather than a real position-value figure. The full top-25 institutional holder list, which for a UK-listed issuer of this size and ownership structure is typically dominated by index trackers and large active managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, Norges, the Industrias Peñoles parent and other strategic holders), is not available in this report's source data. Investors should consult Fresnillo's RNS notifications of major holdings (TR-1) and its annual Shareholder Information disclosure for the current institutional-register composition. The approximately 24.95% free-float figure (computed above) is a reliable indicator that the controlling-parent stake is substantial and that the public float is concentrated.

Insider transactions in the trailing window (per the holders.insider_transactions field):

Date	Filer	Transaction / Position	Shares	Value (per dataset)
3 Mar 2025	Industrias Peñoles SAB De CV	(not specified)	0	not disclosed
31 Dec 2024	Industrias Peñoles SAB De CV	(not specified)	0	not disclosed
31 Dec 2024	Jacobs (Charles)	(not specified)	0	not disclosed
31 Dec 2024	Ruiz (Fernando)	(not specified)	0	not disclosed

Every entry in the dataset's holders.insider_transactions field carries shares = 0, value = null and empty position and transaction fields. These rows therefore appear to be holder-of-record snapshot entries — naming the controlling parent (Industrias Peñoles SAB De CV) and two named directors (Charles Jacobs, Fernando Ruiz) at the relevant snapshot dates — rather than reportable buy or sell transactions. No individual-director discretionary at-market purchase or sale is visible in this dataset's holders.insider_transactions field for the trailing window. The formal RNS notifications by individual director or PDMR (Person Discharging Managerial Responsibility) should be consulted via Fresnillo's investor-relations RNS feed at fresnilloplc.com for the buy/sell direction and complete narrative on any director and PDMR dealings.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Single-commodity-class precious-metals-price risk. Fresnillo's revenue is dominated by realised silver and gold sales (concentrate plus doré), with by-product credits from lead and zinc at the polymetallic operations. A sustained decline in the LBMA silver and gold benchmarks (or the LME lead and zinc benchmarks for the by-product credits) would materially compress realised revenue and EBITDA. The four-year gross-margin trajectory (22.0% in FY2022, 18.6% in FY2023, 35.6% in FY2024, 58.41% in FY2025) is the structural illustration of cyclical-commodity-price exposure; the realised silver and gold price per period is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Country concentration in Mexico. All seven producing operations named in the company's description (Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, Juanicipio) are in Mexico, which means the franchise is exposed to Mexican fiscal, royalty, environmental-permitting, water-rights, indigenous-consultation, security and labour-relations risk concentrated in a single country. Specific exposure to the Mexican mining royalty (the special and extraordinary mining duties enacted under Mexico's IEPS and federal mining law), and to the country-level corporate tax-rate trajectory, is not disclosed in this report's source data. The current Mexican federal administration's mining-sector policy posture — including constitutional reform of the General Mining Law and any moratorium on new open-pit concession grants — is a structurally material variable for any Mexican-only producer.
• Operating-throughput and ore-grade risk. Per the 22 April 2026 Wall Street Journal recent_news entry, "Fresnillo's Quarterly Silver Production Slips. The miner's silver production fell 8.5% on lower ore grades and decreased volumes processed at its Saucito, Fresnillo and Juanicipio mines." That is a direct, named-operating-asset, primary-source data point indicating throughput-and-grade pressure at three of the seven named producing mines in the most recent reporting period. Mexican silver and gold ore grades structurally decline with mining depth at long-established operations, requiring continuous exploration-and-development spend simply to maintain output. Per-mine ore-grade progression, head-grade-versus-reserve-grade variance and mill-throughput trends are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Capex underspend risk. Capex declined from $592.1m in FY2022 to $400.1m in FY2025 (−32.4% in three years). FY2025 capex of $400.1m represents 8.77% of revenue. While the low capex-to-revenue ratio supports near-term free cash flow and the meaningful FY2025 net-cash build, sustained underspend versus the size of the seven-mine operating portfolio can presage future production reductions if reserves-replacement and sustaining-capex spend is being deferred. Mine-by-mine sustaining-capex split, reserves and resources progression, and the development-capex pipeline are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Parent-shareholder concentration and related-party transactions. With a free float of approximately 24.95% (184m of 737m shares), the parent Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V. and other strategic holders together hold approximately 75% of the equity. Specific Industrias Peñoles holding percentage, the precise related-party transactions disclosed by the company, and concert-party arrangements are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Currency translation and reporting basis. Fresnillo reports in US dollars, while a meaningful portion of its operating cost base is incurred in Mexican pesos (mine-site labour, contractors, royalties, regulatory levies, electricity and water). Sustained MXN / USD depreciation would mechanically compress the USD operating-cost base (a tailwind), while MXN appreciation would have the opposite effect. The realised peso/dollar effect on FY2025 cost-of-revenue is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Security, social-licence and community-relations risk. Mexican mining operations have historically been exposed to organised-crime activity, community-blockade events and labour-relations disputes in several of the producing states. Security incidents, community-engagement spend and the social-licence position at each of the seven named producing mines are not separately disclosed in the dataset.
• Currency-unit artefacts in headline valuation ratios. Several ratios.* fields (P/B 5.79×, P/S 5.88×, EV/Revenue 5.56×) carry a similar GBp-numerator-with-USD-denominator scaling distortion.
• Dataset gap on segment / production / regulatory disclosure. Because this report's source dataset contains no SEC 10-K or 20-F filing, mine-by-mine production volumes (silver Moz, gold Moz, lead and zinc tonnes), silver and gold price realisation, by-product credit detail, per-ounce total cash cost and all-in sustaining cost (AISC), capex breakdown by project, ore-grade and reserves/resources progression, Mexican royalty and tax detail, lease-liability detail, hedging position and the divisional MD&A narrative are not quoted in this article. Risk-factors content from a primary annual-report source is similarly not cleanly available from this dataset's structure — readers should consult Fresnillo's UK Annual Report and the company's investor-relations announcements directly at fresnilloplc.com.

11. Recent Developments

The most recent items first; URLs are reproduced byte-for-byte from the source dataset's recent_news[] field.

• 7 May 2026 — Simply Wall St., "Is It Too Late To Reassess Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) After Its 239% One Year Rally?" Trailing-returns and valuation reassessment piece. This naturally raises questions about how much of the story is already reflected in the price." Reproduced here only to evidence the date and the trailing-period total-return primitives quoted in the publisher excerpt; this report relies on no analyst opinion or price target. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/too-reassess-fresnillo-lse-fres-081909516.html
• 22 April 2026 — The Wall Street Journal, "Fresnillo's Quarterly Silver Production Slips". The single most material company-specific operating data point in the trailing-six-week newsflow. Per the publisher excerpt: "The miner's silver production fell 8.5% on lower ore grades and decreased volumes processed at its Saucito, Fresnillo and Juanicipio mines." That is a direct, named-operating-asset, primary-source data point indicating quarterly-throughput-and-grade pressure at three of the seven producing operations. URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/fresnillos-quarterly-silver-production-slips-6b71ccba?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
• 14 April 2026 — Barron's, "European Stock Indexes Higher as Oil Falls Back". Sector-context piece. Per the publisher excerpt: "European stocks largely rise in early trade as oil slips on renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations. Basic materials and technology stocks gain as the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 rises 0.5%. The industrial-heavy DAX is 1% higher as automotive stocks and other energy-sensitive companies gain." Reproduced as sector-tape context for the basic-materials complex; not Fresnillo-specific corporate news. URL: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-041426/card/european-stock-indexes-higher-as-oil-falls-back-VPfxJjfVlfk3AmC2nld1?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
• 13 April 2026 — Zacks, "Fresnillo (FNLPF) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?" Third-party analyst-rating piece. Reproduced here only to evidence the date and the existence of analyst-attributed valuation activity around FRES.L / FNLPF (the US over-the-counter ticker for the same equity); the upgrade itself is an analyst opinion and is not endorsed or relied upon in this report. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fresnillo-fnlpf-upgraded-strong-buy-160003976.html
• 10 April 2026 — MT Newswires, "European Stocks Tracking Higher in Friday Trading Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Talks; German Inflation Rises in March". European-market context piece referencing US-Iran geopolitics and German inflation. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/articles/european-stocks-tracking-higher-friday-155523895.html
• 9 April 2026 — Zacks, "Will Juanicipio Mine Boost Pan American Silver's 2026 Production?" Joint-venture-partner-flagged data point referencing the Juanicipio mine (Fresnillo's JV with Pan American Silver). Per the publisher excerpt: "PAAS eyes 14% silver output growth in 2026, with Juanicipio's full-year contribution set to boost production despite rising cost pressures." Useful as evidence of Juanicipio's strategic importance within the Mexican silver portfolio; the cited production growth figure is Pan American Silver's, not Fresnillo's. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/juanicipio-mine-boost-pan-american-141100452.html

The most material FRES-specific events visible in the trailing five-week newsflow within this dataset are (i) the 22 April 2026 WSJ-reported quarterly silver-production slippage (8.5% decline, lower ore grades, three named mines); (ii) Fresnillo's 6 May 2026 role as one of the two strongest UK blue-chip movers on a positive risk-on session (Iran-deal headlines); and (iii) the 7 May 2026 Simply Wall St.-quoted trailing-period total-return primitives (+239% over one year, +435% over three years). No material acquisitions, regulatory penalties, named executive-appointment announcements (CEO, Chair, CFO) or capital-raise announcements appear in the recent_news list within this window. Note that the dataset's recent_news[] field also carries two LaFleur Minerals items dated 28 and 29 April 2026 referring to a separate Quebec-focused gold-exploration company; those items are not Fresnillo-related and have not been included in the trailing-newsflow narrative above.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• Q3 2026 — H1 2026 interim results and Q2 2026 production report (typically August and mid-July respectively; confirm at fresnilloplc.com/investors)
• Q4 2026 — Q3 2026 production report (typically mid-October; confirm at fresnilloplc.com/investors)
• End 2026 (expected) — FY2026 full-year production report (typically January; confirm at fresnilloplc.com/investors)
• Ongoing — Dividend declarations — no specific date set as of May 2026; monitor at fresnilloplc.com/investors

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Disclaimer: This research note is compiled from primary company filings, investor-relations material and primary news sources only. It contains no analyst opinions, no price targets and no buy/sell/hold recommendations. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company. Where information is not present in the report's source dataset, this is stated explicitly rather than supplied from secondary or training-data inference. Nothing in this note constitutes investment advice; readers should consult Fresnillo's official disclosures and a qualified adviser before taking any investment decision.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 31 August 2026

Diploma PLC is a large UK-listed value-add distributor that buys niche businesses supplying essential technical products — seals, fasteners, wiring and interconnect, laboratory and medtech consumables — and grows them inside a decentralised group. It reports in sterling to a 30 September year end and publishes results twice a year. Financial year 2026 has been an exceptional one: organic growth of 15 per cent in the first half, an adjusted operating margin that has moved from 22.5 per cent to a guided 26.5 per cent, and two separate guidance upgrades in six months. This report sets out the audited five-year record, the segment and geographic mix, the balance sheet and cash flow, the valuation arithmetic and the scheduled dates ahead. No analyst ratings, no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Diploma PLC
Ticker / Exchange	DPLM, London Stock Exchange main market, premium listing
Sector / Industry	Industrials — value-add specialist distribution across three sectors: Controls, Seals and Life Sciences
Headquarters	10-11 Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6EE, United Kingdom
Founded / Listed	Founded 1931; listed on the London Stock Exchange since 1960
CEO / Leadership	Johnny Thomson, Chief Executive Officer since February 2019; Wilson Ng, Chief Financial Officer (acting from 14 August 2025, appointed permanently on 17 December 2025)
Employees	Approximately 3,500, as stated in the Q3 trading update of 16 July 2026 (approximately 3,400 at the FY2025 results)
Financial year end	30 September. Diploma reports half-yearly, with interim results in May and full-year results in November
Revenue (FY2025, year to 30 Sep 2025)	£1,524.5m, up 11.8 per cent on FY2024 (organic growth 11 per cent, net acquisitions 3 per cent, offset by an adverse currency translation)
Revenue (trailing twelve months to 31 Mar 2026)	£1,647.1m
Profit for the year (FY2025)	£185.5m; statutory basic EPS 137.9p; adjusted EPS 176.0p
Shares in issue	—
Dividend	FY2025 total 62.3p per share, up 5 per cent; FY2026 interim 19.1p paid 12 June 2026. Twenty-five consecutive years of dividend growth

No share split, consolidation or equity placing has taken place in FY2025 or FY2026, and there is no pending merger, delisting or change of listing category. The one board change of note was at the finance function: Chris Davies resigned as Chief Financial Officer with immediate effect on 14 August 2025 citing a lapse of judgement over personal conduct at a company event, unrelated to financial performance and with guidance left unchanged. Wilson Ng, previously Group Financial Controller, stepped up on the same day and was confirmed in the role on 17 December 2025.

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• The compounding machine is still working: revenue has grown from £787.4m in FY2021 to £1,524.5m in FY2025, a compound annual growth rate of roughly 18 per cent, while adjusted operating margin rose from 18.9 per cent to 22.5 per cent over the same period. Growth and margin have improved together, not traded off against each other.
• Margin expansion is running well ahead of plan: the first half of FY2026 delivered a 24.5 per cent adjusted operating margin, up 300 basis points year on year, and the July 2026 trading update lifted full-year margin guidance to approximately 26.5 per cent from 22.5 per cent as recently as November 2025.
• Guidance has been upgraded twice in six months: full-year organic growth guidance moved from 6 per cent at the FY2025 results, to 12 per cent at the May 2026 interims, to 14 per cent at the July 2026 Q3 update, with adjusted operating profit growth of approximately 42 per cent implied.
• The balance sheet has capacity: leverage was 0.8 times at 31 March 2026 against a board policy limit of 2.0 times and a banking covenant of 3.5 times, despite fifteen acquisitions in the preceding twelve months for around £310m at an average of about eight times earnings before interest and tax.
• Returns on capital are rising, not diluting: return on adjusted trading capital employed reached 20.9 per cent in FY2025 and 22.7 per cent in the first half of FY2026, up 360 basis points year on year — unusual for a group deploying this much acquisition capital.

Bear Case

• Growth has become narrow and Controls-led: Controls grew organically at 26 per cent in the first half of FY2026 with a 33.5 per cent margin, while Seals managed 2 per cent organic growth and Life Sciences 4 per cent. Two of the three sectors, roughly 42 per cent of revenue, are close to flat in real terms.
• Acquisition dependency: guidance assumes acquisitions contribute six percentage points of reported growth. Sustaining that requires a continuous pipeline of businesses available at around eight times earnings before interest and tax, and Diploma's own principal risks list overpayment, post-acquisition underperformance and cultural misalignment.
• Concentration in the United States with sterling reporting: the USA generated £802.6m of FY2025 revenue by origin, some 52.6 per cent of the group, and roughly 80 per cent of revenue comes from businesses located outside the UK. Currency translation reduced FY2025 revenue by £33.7m and adjusted operating profit by £9.0m against FY2024.

3. Revenue Segments

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Controls	54.9 per cent of FY2025 revenue (£836.4m); 58.2 per cent of H1 FY2026 revenue (£495.3m)	Precision wiring, interconnect, fasteners and specialist components for aerospace, defence, data centres, energy, infrastructure and medical applications. Organic growth of 20 per cent in FY2025 and 26 per cent in H1 FY2026, with adjusted operating margin of 30.0 per cent in FY2025 rising to 33.5 per cent in H1 FY2026. This is the engine of the group.
Seals	29.9 per cent of FY2025 revenue (£456.0m); 26.4 per cent of H1 FY2026 revenue (£224.9m)	Sealing and fluid-power products, largely aftermarket, serving construction, agriculture, energy and water end markets. Organic growth of 2 per cent in both FY2025 and H1 FY2026, with adjusted operating margin of 19.3 per cent in FY2025 and 18.9 per cent in H1 FY2026. The most cyclically exposed sector.
Life Sciences	15.2 per cent of FY2025 revenue (£232.1m); 15.4 per cent of H1 FY2026 revenue (£130.9m)	Medical technology, in-vitro diagnostics and scientific consumables and instrumentation supplied to healthcare providers and laboratories. Organic growth of 6 per cent in FY2025 and 4 per cent in H1 FY2026; adjusted operating margin of 19.5 per cent in FY2025, down 160 basis points, and 19.8 per cent in H1 FY2026.

Geographically, Diploma disclosed FY2025 revenue by origin as USA £802.6m (52.6 per cent), UK £279.8m (18.4 per cent), rest of Europe £247.5m (16.2 per cent) and rest of world £194.6m (12.8 per cent). Roughly 80 per cent of group revenue is generated by businesses located outside the United Kingdom, which is why sterling strength shows up directly in reported growth.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Diploma does not manufacture at scale. It distributes essential, low-value, high-consequence products — the seal that stops a hydraulic ram leaking, the connector that must not fail in an aircraft, the consumable a diagnostics laboratory runs through daily — and wraps them in technical service: specification support, kitting, just-in-time delivery, local stockholding. The product is a small line item on the customer's bill of materials but a large problem if it fails or arrives late, which is what supports adjusted operating margins the company describes as sustainably above 20 per cent, and up to 33.5 per cent in Controls.

How it grows. Buy and build. Diploma has completed 57 acquisitions since 2019 for around £1.6bn of total investment, and management states these have generated returns above 20 per cent. Deals are typically bolt-ons acquired at around eight to nine times earnings before interest and tax, then folded into an existing sector platform. Fifteen deals were completed in the twelve months to March 2026 for approximately £310m, culminating in CDM, a Philadelphia-based interconnect and cable-assembly business with around 80m dollars of revenue serving defence customers, completed on 25 June 2026 for 170m dollars.

Why it is capital light. Capital expenditure was £13.1m net in FY2025, roughly 1 per cent of revenue, against the 2 per cent management says it typically expects. Free cash flow conversion has run at 100 per cent or better in three of the last four years, reaching 105 per cent in FY2025. That combination — high margin, low capital intensity, strong conversion — is what funds the acquisition programme without persistent equity issuance.

How management measures itself. Return on adjusted trading capital employed is the primary discipline metric, and it has improved in each of the last four years: 17.4 per cent in FY2021, 17.3 per cent in FY2022, 18.1 per cent in FY2023, 19.1 per cent in FY2024 and 20.9 per cent in FY2025, reaching 22.7 per cent in the first half of FY2026. Capital allocation policy is leverage below 2.0 times, disciplined bolt-on acquisitions, and a progressive dividend growing at around 5 per cent a year.

5. Financial Health

The annual table below is taken directly from the audited five-year record on page 168 of the Diploma PLC Annual Report and Accounts 2025, cross-checked against the FY2025 preliminary results announcement of 18 November 2025. Revenue is in millions of pounds sterling; earnings and dividends are in pence per share. Long-term debt is total borrowings at the year-end balance sheet date, excluding lease liabilities, consistent with the company's own net debt definition.

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021 (to 30 Sep 2021)	787.4	+46.3%	56.1p	85.2p	42.6p	£206.2m
FY2022 (to 30 Sep 2022)	1,012.8	+28.6%	76.1p	107.5p	53.8p	£370.6m
FY2023 (to 30 Sep 2023)	1,200.3	+18.5%	90.8p	126.5p	56.5p	£317.1m
FY2024 (to 30 Sep 2024)	1,363.4	+13.6%	96.5p	145.8p	59.3p	£479.8m
FY2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)	1,524.5	+11.8%	137.9p	176.0p	62.3p	£381.1m

Adjusted operating profit over the same five years ran £148.7m, £191.2m, £237.0m, £285.0m and £342.7m, with adjusted operating margin of 18.9 per cent, 18.9 per cent, 19.7 per cent, 20.9 per cent and 22.5 per cent. Company-defined free cash flow ran £108.8m, £120.4m, £163.8m, £197.9m and £247.2m. Net debt was £254.7m at 30 September 2023, £419.6m at 30 September 2024 and £299.4m at 30 September 2025, the last representing leverage of 0.8 times.

Because Diploma reports half-yearly rather than quarterly, the table below shows half-year periods. H2 FY2025 is not published as a standalone period and is derived as the FY2025 full-year figure less the reported H1 FY2025 figure; it is marked accordingly.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 FY2026 (six months to 31 Mar 2026, reported 19 May 2026)	£851.1m	109.2p	74.7p
H2 FY2025 (six months to 30 Sep 2025, derived†)	£796.0m	95.8p	66.4p
H1 FY2025 (six months to 31 Mar 2025)	£728.5m	80.2p	71.5p
FY2025 total (year to 30 Sep 2025)	£1,524.5m	176.0p	137.9p

† Diploma does not publish a standalone second-half statement. The H2 FY2025 row is arithmetically derived as the audited full-year figure less the reported first-half figure and is shown for shape only, not as a company-reported number.

Cash flow and balance sheet detail, from the FY2025 Annual Report and the H1 FY2026 interim report. In FY2025, net cash from operating activities was £370.5m against £279.7m in FY2024, net capital expenditure was £13.1m, depreciation and amortisation of tangible and right-of-use assets was £30.5m, cash and cash equivalents at the year end were £81.7m and total borrowings £381.1m. In the six months to 31 March 2026, net cash from operating activities was £111.0m against £94.7m a year earlier, net capital expenditure was £1.3m, depreciation and amortisation was £16.5m, cash and cash equivalents were £68.7m and borrowings were £412.6m in total, comprising £1.2m current and £411.4m non-current, with lease liabilities of a further £88.8m. Net debt excluding leases stood at £343.9m, or 0.8 times. Goodwill rose to £605.4m from £563.5m at the September year end, reflecting the acquisition programme, and total equity was £1,056.7m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Short interest (% of float)	n/a — no individual net short position above the UK disclosure threshold was identified for Diploma PLC. Verify against the FCA short position register, which since the 2026 regime change publishes anonymised aggregated net short positions daily.

7. What Are They Building

Diploma frames its strategy as sustainable quality compounding, and in practice it has two halves: organic initiatives inside the existing businesses, and a continuous acquisition programme that widens the platform.

Structural end-market tilt. The clearest strategic shift is towards aerospace, defence, data centres, energy and in-vitro diagnostics — end markets with visible multi-year demand rather than industrial cyclicality. The CDM acquisition, completed on 25 June 2026 for 170m dollars, is the sharpest expression of this: a Philadelphia interconnect and cable-assembly business with roughly 80m dollars of revenue serving defence customers, which takes defence to approximately 6 to 7 per cent of pro forma group revenue and gives Diploma a US interconnect platform it did not previously own.

The acquisition pipeline. Fifteen deals completed in the twelve months to the first half of FY2026 for approximately £310m at an average of about eight times earnings before interest and tax. Recent additions span all three sectors: WDS Components, Swift Aerospace, Spring Solutions, Techsil and Sinus Electronic, FC Lane and Selwyn Electronics in Controls; C and C Packings, Hydraulic Seals Australia and Abbey Seals in Seals; and Modul Nordic in Life Sciences. FY2025 itself saw seven deals for around £93m at approximately eight times, including Viking Tapes, Astro Industries, Alpha Laboratories, Electramed and Haagensen.

Scaling investment. Alongside acquisitions, Diploma is investing in the group infrastructure a £1.5bn-plus revenue business needs: a first graduate programme launched across the US and UK, enterprise resource planning and warehouse management upgrades, a group-wide Sales Excellence initiative launched in FY2025, a new distribution centre in the Czech Republic and a new German facility for Clarendon. Digital investment is furthest advanced in Seals, where the Hercules aftermarket business now takes more than two-thirds of its online ordering share through an enhanced e-commerce platform with AI-enabled search.

What has not changed. Capital allocation policy is unchanged: leverage below 2.0 times, bolt-on acquisitions at disciplined multiples, and a progressive dividend growing at around 5 per cent a year on a twenty-five-year unbroken record. Free cash flow conversion is targeted at around 90 per cent of adjusted operating profit and delivered 105 per cent in FY2025.

8. Competitive Landscape

Peer	Key 2025/2026 metric
Bunzl PLC (BNZL, London Stock Exchange)	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately £11.85bn per market data at 28 August 2026. The other large UK-listed distribution compounder, but roughly seven times Diploma's revenue on a materially lower margin, which is why Diploma commands the higher multiple of the two despite the smaller top line.
RS Group PLC (RS1, London Stock Exchange)	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately £2.88bn per market data at 28 August 2026. The closest UK-listed comparator by end market — industrial and electronics distribution — but now materially smaller than Diploma by market value despite nearly double the revenue.
Watsco, Inc. (WSO, NYSE)	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $7.28bn per market data at 28 August 2026. A US distribution compounder in HVAC with a comparable buy-and-build history; its shares are down from a July 2026 level of roughly $16bn of market value.
Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT, NYSE)	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $4.97bn per market data at 28 August 2026. A US industrial distributor with a comparable value-add model in bearings, power transmission and fluid power, competing directly with Diploma's Seals sector in North America.

Diploma at approximately £9.83bn now sits above Bunzl and well above RS Group in market value, on roughly one seventh of Bunzl's revenue and just over half of RS Group's. That gap is the market pricing margin and returns rather than scale: Diploma's 22.5 per cent FY2025 adjusted operating margin and 20.9 per cent return on adjusted trading capital employed are at the top of this peer set. The competitive risk is not that a listed rival takes share — these businesses rarely compete head to head across a whole portfolio — but that the same private assets Diploma wants to buy attract more bidders as private equity and trade buyers chase the same value-add distribution playbook.

9. Insider Activity

Chief Executive Officer Johnny Thomson, in post since February 2019, leads the group alongside Chief Financial Officer Wilson Ng, who was appointed permanently on 17 December 2025 having acted in the role since 14 August 2025. Diploma disclosed a cluster of director and person-discharging-managerial-responsibilities purchases via RNS on 20 July 2026, covering dealings on 16 and 17 July 2026. All three were on-market purchases rather than share awards or option exercises, executed in a price band of £70.48 to £71.83 per share.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Katie Bickerstaffe (Senior Independent Director)	16 Jul 2026	On-market purchase	180	Discretionary purchase, disclosed by RNS 20 Jul 2026
Wilson Ng (Chief Financial Officer)	16 Jul 2026	On-market purchase	424	Discretionary purchase, disclosed by RNS 20 Jul 2026
Mandy Gradden (Non-Executive Director)	17 Jul 2026	On-market purchase	1,000	Discretionary purchase, opening holding, disclosed by RNS 20 Jul 2026

Two points of context. First, these are genuine open-market purchases made days after the 16 July 2026 guidance upgrade, which is a more meaningful signal than a scheduled award vesting — but the sums involved are small, taking Bickerstaffe to 2,477 shares, Ng to 5,821 shares and Gradden to an opening 1,000 shares. Second, no director or PDMR disposals were identified in the RNS filings reviewed for 2026, though a complete dealings log would require a full sweep of the company's regulatory news history. Values shown are calculated from the disclosed share counts at the midpoint of the disclosed price band and are approximate.

10. Key Risks

• Acquisition execution and overpayment: Diploma's own principal risks place M and A first. With fifteen deals in twelve months for around £310m, the group is integrating at pace, and the risks disclosed are overpaying, post-acquisition underperformance, loss of key customers or suppliers in an acquired business, and cultural misalignment across a deliberately decentralised structure.
• Goodwill and intangibles carrying value: goodwill reached £605.4m at 31 March 2026 against total equity of £1,056.7m, and is tested annually for impairment against value-in-use models for each of the three sectors. A sustained downturn in Seals or Life Sciences would put pressure on those models, and acquisition-related charges already consumed £59.0m of FY2025 profit before tax.
• Narrow growth base: the FY2026 upgrade cycle is being driven almost entirely by Controls, at 26 per cent organic growth and a 33.5 per cent margin in the first half. Seals grew 2 per cent organically and Life Sciences 4 per cent. If Controls normalises, group organic growth falls a long way before the other two sectors can offset it.
• Currency translation: roughly 80 per cent of revenue comes from businesses outside the UK, with the USA alone at 52.6 per cent of FY2025 revenue by origin, while the group reports in sterling. Currency movements reduced FY2025 revenue by £33.7m and adjusted operating profit by £9.0m relative to FY2024, entirely independent of trading performance.
• Talent, succession and management depth: a decentralised group of this size depends on retaining and developing operating-company leadership, and Diploma lists this as a principal risk. The abrupt resignation of the Chief Financial Officer in August 2025 over a personal-conduct matter, resolved internally within four months, illustrates both the exposure and the bench strength.
• Supply chain and key-supplier concentration: as a distributor, Diploma depends on suppliers continuing to supply. The disclosed risk covers a key supplier revoking a distribution agreement, supplier insolvency, and geopolitical or logistics disruption — all of which hit a distributor faster than a manufacturer.
• Product liability and regulatory exposure: own-brand and mission-critical products failing in service carry liability, particularly in Life Sciences healthcare applications and safety-critical Controls applications, alongside the risk of counterfeit or non-compliant supplier product entering the chain.
• Tariffs and geopolitics: the H1 FY2026 report explicitly flags the continued tariff environment and the Middle East conflict as live watch items. Management states that the group's local-for-local model gives it limited direct tariff exposure, but a broad-based tariff regime affects the industrial end markets Diploma sells into whether or not its own goods cross borders.
• Valuation premium: at roughly 52 times trailing statutory earnings and about 36 times trailing adjusted earnings, after a move from 4,970p in March 2026 to a 7,765p high in August 2026, the rating already reflects the guidance upgrades. A single missed period would be re-rated from a high base.

11. Recent Developments

• 14 Aug 2025 — Chief Financial Officer resigns with immediate effect. Chris Davies stepped down citing a lapse of judgement regarding personal conduct at a company event, unrelated to financial performance. Wilson Ng, Group Financial Controller, was appointed Acting CFO the same day and FY2025 guidance was left unchanged.
• 18 Nov 2025 — FY2025 preliminary results. Revenue of £1,524.5m, up 11.8 per cent with organic growth of 11 per cent; adjusted operating profit £342.7m, up 20 per cent, at a 22.5 per cent margin; adjusted EPS 176.0p, up 21 per cent; total dividend 62.3p, up 5 per cent; net debt £299.4m at 0.8 times leverage. Initial FY2026 guidance was organic growth of 6 per cent at a margin of approximately 22.5 per cent.
• 17 Dec 2025 — Wilson Ng confirmed as permanent Group Chief Financial Officer following an internal and external selection process.
• 14 Jan 2026 — Annual General Meeting held at the Great Chamber, The Charterhouse, Charterhouse Square, London.
• 19 May 2026 — H1 FY2026 interim results and first guidance upgrade. Revenue of £851.1m, up 17 per cent with 15 per cent organic; adjusted operating profit £208.9m, up 33 per cent, at a 24.5 per cent margin, up 300 basis points; adjusted EPS 109.2p, up 36 per cent; interim dividend 19.1p, up 5 per cent; leverage 0.8 times; return on adjusted trading capital employed 22.7 per cent. Full-year organic growth guidance was raised from 6 per cent to 12 per cent and margin guidance to approximately 25 per cent.
• 28 May 2026 — Interim dividend ex-dividend date, with a record date of 29 May 2026.
• 12 Jun 2026 — Interim dividend of 19.1p per share paid.
• 25 Jun 2026 — CDM acquisition completed. Diploma acquired the Philadelphia-based interconnect and cable-assembly business, with around 80m dollars of revenue and a defence customer base, for 170m dollars, establishing a US interconnect platform and lifting defence to approximately 6 to 7 per cent of pro forma group revenue.
• 16 Jul 2026 — Q3 trading update and second guidance upgrade. For the nine months to 30 June 2026, organic growth of 15 per cent was reported. Full-year guidance was raised again to organic growth of 14 per cent, acquisitions contributing 6 per cent, and adjusted operating margin of approximately 26.5 per cent, implying adjusted operating profit growth of approximately 42 per cent. The update also confirmed the next scheduled disclosure as full-year results on 17 November 2026.
• 20 Jul 2026 — Director and PDMR dealings disclosed. On-market purchases by Senior Independent Director Katie Bickerstaffe, Chief Financial Officer Wilson Ng and Non-Executive Director Mandy Gradden, dealt on 16 and 17 July 2026 in a price band of £70.48 to £71.83.

12. Key Dates and Catalysts

• 17 Nov 2026 — FY2026 full-year results for the year ending 30 September 2026. This date was confirmed explicitly in the Q3 trading update of 16 July 2026 and is the single most important scheduled event, since it tests the 14 per cent organic and 26.5 per cent margin guidance.
• Expected Nov 2026 — declaration of the FY2026 final dividend alongside those results.
• Expected Jan 2027 — Annual General Meeting. The 2026 AGM was held on 14 January 2026, following the same pattern of roughly two months after full-year results.
• Expected Feb 2027 — payment of the FY2026 final dividend, following the FY2025 timetable. No ex-dividend or payment date has been announced.
• Expected May 2027 — H1 FY2027 interim results for the six months to 31 March 2027. The FY2026 interims were published on 19 May 2026.
• TBC — capital markets day. None was identified as scheduled for FY2026 or FY2027.

Between the scheduled dates, the variables that will actually move the outcome are the pace of bolt-on acquisitions, whether Controls sustains its organic run rate as defence and data centre demand matures, and whether Seals inflects out of its low-single-digit growth. Diploma does not issue quarterly financial statements, so the July trading update is the only interim read between May and November. For macro releases, see the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and to discuss this name with other readers visit the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 11 September 2026

Ashmore Group plc is a London-listed fund manager that does one thing: emerging markets. It runs external debt, local currency, corporate debt, blended debt, equity and alternatives strategies, almost entirely for institutional clients, and its earnings rise and fall with emerging-market sentiment in a way few other UK mid-cap financials do. FY2026, the year to 30 June 2026, was the first genuine turn in several years — assets under management rose 13% to US$54.0bn and the group returned to net inflows of US$2.7bn after a run of outflows — yet net revenue still fell 2% to £140.5m and the shares fell on results day. This report separates the recovery in assets from the continued erosion in fee income. No analyst ratings or price targets appear anywhere in it.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Listing	London Stock Exchange, LSE: ASHM (ISIN GB00B132NW22)
Sector	Asset management — specialist emerging markets
Headquarters	16 Palace Street, London (relocated April 2026)
Employees	Average Group headcount of 278 in FY2026, across 13 offices worldwide
CEO / Leadership	Mark Coombs, founder and Chief Executive, confirmed in post as signatory of the FY2026 results on 7 September 2026; Tom Shippey, Group Finance Director
Revenue (FY2026)	£140.5m net revenue, down 2% on FY2025's £144.1m (adjusted net revenue £135.6m)
Profit before tax (FY2026)	£126.9m, up 17%; profit attributable to shareholders £103.3m, up 27%
Assets under management	US$54.0bn at 30 June 2026, up 13% year on year
Balance sheet	No debt; £364.7m of cash and deposits and £794.3m of total equity at 30 June 2026
Fiscal year end	30 June

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• The flow picture has genuinely turned: FY2026 produced net inflows of US$2.7bn against a US$5.8bn net outflow in FY2025. Gross subscriptions rose 92% to US$12.5bn while gross redemptions fell 20% to US$9.8bn — both sides of the ledger moved the right way, not just one.
• Investment performance has recovered sharply: 77% of assets under management were outperforming over one year at 30 June 2026, against 57% a year earlier. In a business where flows follow performance with a lag, that matters more than the current year's revenue line.
• A fortress balance sheet with no debt: £364.7m of cash and deposits, £609.5m of total capital resources against a Board requirement of £88.0m, and zero borrowings. The 16.9p dividend has been held flat through a multi-year revenue decline without recourse to leverage.
• Japan Post Insurance validates the franchise: the 31 March 2026 alliance brought an incremental US$1bn commitment across fixed income, Impact Debt and listed equities, and gives JPI the right to acquire up to 2.9% of Ashmore's equity in the market.
• Diversification away from EM debt is actually happening: equities reached US$10.0bn, or 18.5% of assets, up from US$7.5bn, and alternatives grew 25% with new private market funds in Saudi Arabia and the initial funding of Ashmore Healthcare International.

Bear Case

• Core earnings are still falling: adjusted diluted EPS fell to 5.0p in FY2026 from 7.1p in FY2025 and 18.7p in FY2022. The headline 28% rise in statutory EPS to 15.04p came from seed capital gains, not from the fee-earning business.
• Fee margin compression is structural, not cyclical: the net management fee margin has fallen every year from 39bps in FY2022 to 34bps in FY2026, as mix shifts toward lower-margin overlay, liquidity and local-currency mandates. Assets can grow while revenue shrinks, and in FY2026 they did exactly that.
• Profit quality is poor: FY2026 seed capital gains were £82.5m against £40.1m in FY2025 and a £49.9m loss in FY2022. These are mark-to-market swings on the group's own capital, not repeatable operating income, and they dominate reported profit.
• Key-man concentration around the founder: Mark Coombs has led the business since 1998 and is reported to hold roughly 32% of the equity. Succession is unresolved and the shareholder register is unusually concentrated for a UK mid-cap company.
• Everything depends on one asset class staying in favour: with 78% of assets in emerging market fixed income, a reversal in EM sentiment or a sustained dollar rally hits assets, flows and seed capital simultaneously. There is no offsetting business line.

3. Business Segments

Ashmore reports as a single operating segment but discloses assets under management and fee margin by investment theme. The revenue shares below are derived by applying each theme's disclosed net management fee margin to its closing assets at 30 June 2026; they are an approximation of where fee income originates rather than a reported segmental split.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Equities	About 26% (derived)	US$10.0bn of assets, 18.5% of the total, at a 48bps fee margin. Includes all-cap, frontier and EM ex-China strategies, and has been the fastest-growing fee pool, up from US$7.5bn.
Local currency	About 23% (derived)	US$17.4bn of assets, 32.2% of the total and the largest theme, but at just 25bps the lowest-margin one. Includes US$9.8bn of overlay and liquidity mandates, up from US$7.9bn a year earlier.
Blended debt	About 18% (derived)	US$11.4bn of assets, 21.1% of the total, at a 30bps margin. Multi-theme mandates giving clients a single allocation across EM debt sub-asset classes.
External debt	About 14% (derived)	US$7.8bn of assets, 14.4% of the total, at a 32bps margin. Hard-currency sovereign and quasi-sovereign EM debt, the group's founding strategy.
Corporate debt	About 9% (derived)	US$5.4bn of assets, 10.0% of the total, at a 31bps margin. EM corporate credit across investment grade and high yield.
Alternatives	About 10% (derived)	US$2.0bn of assets, only 3.7% of the total but at 91bps by far the highest margin. Private equity, private debt and thematic vehicles including Saudi industrials and education funds and Ashmore Healthcare International.

Fixed income in aggregate accounted for US$42.0bn, or 77.8% of total assets, at a blended 29bps. Local offices outside London held US$8.9bn, or 16% of group assets, and contributed 40% of adjusted EBITDA. Retail-sourced assets rose from 4% to 5% of the group total.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Ashmore charges a management fee on assets under management, supplemented by occasional performance fees. FY2026 adjusted revenue comprised net management fees of £128.2m, performance fees of just £1.4m and other revenue of £5.8m. Because performance fees have become immaterial, the revenue line is essentially average assets multiplied by the blended fee margin — which is why a 13% rise in closing assets still produced a 2% fall in revenue.

What the franchise actually is. Thirty-four years of continuous emerging-market specialisation, a 13-office network with local presence in markets including Colombia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and now Mexico and Qatar, and institutional relationships measured in decades — the Japan Post Insurance relationship runs to fifteen years. For a large pension fund or insurer allocating to EM debt, the shortlist of managers with this depth of local coverage is short.

Where the model is under pressure. The blended net management fee margin has fallen from 39bps to 34bps in four years. Part of this is deliberate mix — growing the low-fee overlay and liquidity business adds assets and scale — and part is competitive pressure from passive EM debt products, which Ashmore's own risk disclosures identify as a strategic threat.

How the balance sheet is used. Ashmore seeds its own funds with group capital, holding £323.5m of seed investments at 30 June 2026 after £172.9m of realisations and £62.5m of additions, split 42% fixed income, 28% equities and 30% alternatives, with £82.5m of undrawn commitments. This accelerates new product launches but injects substantial mark-to-market volatility into reported profit: £82.5m of gains in FY2026 against a £49.9m loss in FY2022.

Cost discipline. Variable compensation flexes with profitability, which cushions the downside but also means that outsized seed gains drive an outsized comp charge. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 26% on that basis, or 40% excluding the seed-linked variable compensation effect, against 37% in FY2025.

5. Financial Health

Figures below are taken from Ashmore's audited final results announcements for each financial year, published via RNS. Ashmore reports in sterling with a 30 June year end and publishes half-yearly, not quarterly, financial statements.

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	262.5	—	12.7p‡	18.7p	16.65p	Nil
FY2023	196.4	−25.2%	12.2p	12.7p	16.90p	Nil
FY2024	189.3	−3.6%	13.6p	10.5p	16.90p	Nil
FY2025	144.1	−23.9%	11.77p	7.1p	16.90p	Nil
FY2026	140.5	−2.5%	15.04p	5.0p	16.90p	Nil

Ashmore has carried no borrowings in any of the five years above; every audited balance sheet reviewed states that the group continues to have no debt. The only balance-sheet obligations of that character are operating lease liabilities, which totalled £16.8m at 30 June 2026. Closing assets under management across the same period ran US$64.0bn, US$55.9bn, US$49.3bn, US$47.6bn and US$54.0bn.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H2 FY2026 (Jan–Jun 2026)	£72.5m†	1.9p†	4.9p†
H1 FY2026 (Jul–Dec 2025)	£68.0m	3.1p	10.1p
H2 FY2025 (Jan–Jun 2025)	£63.1m†	2.3p†	6.4p†
H1 FY2025 (Jul–Dec 2024)	£81.0m	4.8p	5.4p
FY2026 total	£140.5m	5.0p	15.04p

† Ashmore does not publish standalone second-half accounts. H2 figures are derived by subtracting the reported first half from the audited full year. H1 FY2026 itself was strong on a statutory basis, with profit before tax of £81.9m, up 64%, and £55.4m of pre-tax seed capital profit; the interim dividend was held at 4.8p. Between results dates Ashmore issues quarterly assets-under-management statements only: US$48.7bn at 30 September 2025, US$52.5bn at 31 December 2025, US$50.7bn at 31 March 2026 and US$54.0bn at 30 June 2026.

Cash generation remains solid relative to the size of the business. Cash generated from operations was £52.2m in FY2026 with depreciation and amortisation of £3.6m, reported operating profit of £71.7m and adjusted operating profit of £32.1m. The gap between operating profit and the £126.9m profit before tax is largely seed capital gains and interest income, which sit below the operating line.

6. Valuation

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Short interest (% of float)	n/a — no net short position at or above the FCA's 0.5% public disclosure threshold was identified against Ashmore on the FCA short positions register as at September 2026. Positions below that threshold are not published in the UK.

7. What Are They Building

A second leg in equities. Equity assets reached US$10.0bn at 30 June 2026, 18.5% of the group and up from US$7.5bn, with European institutional demand concentrated in all-cap strategies. At a 48bps fee margin against 29bps for fixed income, every dollar moved from debt to equity is worth substantially more revenue.

Private markets and thematic alternatives. Alternatives assets grew 25% year on year. New vehicles include thematic private equity and private debt funds in Saudi Arabia targeting industrials and education, and the initial funding of Ashmore Healthcare International Limited. At 91bps this is the highest-margin part of the business, albeit from a small US$2.0bn base.

Local network expansion. Ashmore Mexico received regulatory approval in May 2026 to operate as an independent corporate investment adviser, and a new business was registered in Doha, Qatar. Local office assets grew 13% to US$8.9bn and now generate 40% of adjusted EBITDA from 16% of assets — a disproportionate contribution that explains the continued investment.

Distribution reach. The Japan Post Insurance alliance of 31 March 2026 added an incremental US$1bn commitment and a potential 2.9% equity stake. Retail and intermediary-sourced assets grew from 4% to 5% of the group, with digital distribution being built out in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Product breadth within EM. Frontier blended debt, Impact Debt and an EM equity ex-China strategy launched in FY2025 have all been seeded from the group's own capital, which is the mechanism by which Ashmore converts balance-sheet strength into new fee pools.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Key 2025/2026 metric
Schroders plc (LSE: SDR)	Record assets under management of £824bn with operating profit up 25%. On 12 February 2026 Nuveen agreed to acquire Schroders for US$13.5bn (£9.9bn), creating a group with close to US$2.5tn of assets.
Aberdeen Group plc (LSE: ABDN)	Assets under management and administration up 15% to £108bn in one division at the H1 2026 results. Roughly three times Ashmore's market value on a far more diversified UK-centric book.
Man Group plc (LSE: EMG)	Record assets under management of US$253.6bn at 30 June 2026, up 11% in the quarter. Alternatives-led and performance-fee driven, which is the earnings model Ashmore's alternatives push is edging toward.
Jupiter Fund Management plc (LSE: JUP)	Record assets under management of £68.4bn at the H1 2026 stage, up 36% largely through the CCLA acquisition, with Q1 2026 net inflows of £1.5bn. The closest UK peer by size and the clearest example of growth through acquisition rather than flows.
Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN)	Record US$1.8tn of assets under management with US$18.4bn of long-term net inflows reported for Q3 FY2026. Competes directly with Ashmore in institutional EM debt mandates at far greater scale.

Ashmore is the smallest of this group by market capitalisation and the only one that is a pure emerging-markets specialist. Results dates across UK and US asset managers are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

9. Insider Activity

Chief Executive Mark Coombs founded Ashmore's predecessor business within ANZ and has run the group since 1998. He is reported to hold approximately 32% of the equity, roughly 209.9m shares, making him by a wide margin the largest shareholder and the reason key-man concentration appears in the risk section below. That stake has not been reported as changing during 2026. The disclosed director and PDMR dealings for the year to date are set out below.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Fay Shippey (PCA of Tom Shippey)	27 May 2026	Sell	15,000	Person closely associated
Fay Shippey (PCA of Tom Shippey)	26 May 2026	Sell	75,000	Person closely associated
Clive Adamson	31 Mar 2026	Buy	65	Purchase funded from interim dividend
Tom Shippey	16 Mar 2026	Sell	5,723	Sale following nil-cost award vesting of 5,723 shares

The pattern is unremarkable: two small award-related disposals by the Group Finance Director and a person closely associated with him, and a token dividend-funded purchase by a non-executive director. Separately, on 12 February 2026 BlackRock notified that its holding had fallen below 5% from 5.72% — an institutional disclosure rather than an insider dealing.

10. Key Risks

• Emerging-market sentiment: assets, flows and seed capital gains all key off the same variable. FY2026's recovery followed a strong year for EM indices; a reversal, or a sustained dollar rally, would compress all three simultaneously with no offsetting business line.
• Fee margin erosion: the net management fee margin has fallen from 39bps in FY2022 to 34bps in FY2026. FY2026 demonstrated that assets can rise 13% while revenue falls 2%, which is the clearest possible illustration of the problem.
• Earnings quality and seed capital volatility: £82.5m of seed capital gains in FY2026, £40.1m in FY2025 and a £49.9m loss in FY2022. Reported profit before tax and statutory EPS swing on mark-to-market movements in the group's own investments rather than on the fee business.
• Key-man and register concentration: Mark Coombs has led the business for over a quarter of a century and holds roughly 32% of the shares. No succession plan has been announced, and Ashmore's own risk disclosures cite the inability to attract and retain key employees.
• Client and redemption concentration: approximately 95% of assets are institutional and gross redemptions were US$9.8bn in FY2026, equal to about 21% of opening assets. A small number of large mandate decisions can move group assets materially in either direction.
• Passive competition: Ashmore's own filings identify the threat of passive products to its active fee model. EM debt index funds compete directly on the lowest-margin, most commoditised end of Ashmore's book.
• Currency mismatch: the majority of fee income is denominated in US dollars while costs and reporting are in sterling, and the group hedges only up to two-thirds of budgeted dollar fee income, leaving residual translation and transaction exposure.
• Dividend cover: the 16.9p dividend has been held flat for four years while adjusted diluted EPS has fallen from 18.7p to 5.0p. It is currently covered by statutory earnings of 15.04p only because of seed gains, and by cash and capital resources rather than by core operating profit.

11. Recent Developments

• 05 Sep 2025 — FY2025 final results. Assets under management of US$47.6bn, profit before tax of £108.6m, diluted EPS of 11.77p and the total dividend maintained at 16.9p.
• 14 Oct 2025 — Q1 FY2026 assets statement. Assets rose 2% to US$48.7bn at 30 September 2025.
• 06 Nov 2025 — Annual General Meeting held with all resolutions put to shareholders.
• 15 Jan 2026 — Q2 FY2026 assets statement. Assets rose 8% to US$52.5bn at 31 December 2025.
• 12 Feb 2026 — H1 FY2026 results. Profit before tax of £81.9m, up 64%, diluted EPS of 10.1p, up 89%, and the interim dividend held at 4.8p. Seed capital contributed £55.4m of pre-tax profit. BlackRock separately notified that its holding had fallen below 5%.
• 31 Mar 2026 — Japan Post Insurance alliance announced. An incremental US$1bn commitment across fixed income, Impact Debt and listed equities, with JPI permitted to acquire up to 2.9% of Ashmore's equity in the market.
• 16 Apr 2026 — Q3 FY2026 assets statement. Assets fell 3.4% to US$50.7bn at 31 March 2026 amid Middle East geopolitical volatility, including disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Q4 FY2026 assets statement. Assets rose 7% in the quarter to US$54.0bn, driven by US$2.0bn of investment performance and US$1.3bn of net inflows.
• 07 Sep 2026 — FY2026 final results. Assets up 13% to US$54.0bn, profit before tax up 17% to £126.9m, attributable profit up 27% to £103.3m, statutory diluted EPS up 28% to 15.04p, net revenue down 2% to £140.5m and the final dividend held at 12.1p for a 16.9p total. The shares fell on the day despite the profit beat.
• 08 Sep 2026 — Negative sell-side reaction to the results. Deutsche Bank reiterated a negative stance while raising its price target, and Cavendish also reiterated a negative rating. ChartsView reports these as events, not as recommendations, and takes no view on them.

12. Key Dates

• 14 Oct 2026 — Q1 FY2027 assets under management statement, the only forward event currently listed on Ashmore's financial calendar
• Expected Nov 2026 — 2026 Annual General Meeting, based on the 6 November 2025 precedent; the notice had not been published as at 11 September 2026
• 06 Nov 2026 — record date for the FY2026 final dividend of 12.1p per share
• 07 Dec 2026 — payment date for the FY2026 final dividend
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q2 FY2027 assets under management statement, based on the 15 January 2026 precedent
• Expected Feb 2027 — H1 FY2027 interim results, based on the 12 February 2026 precedent

The ex-dividend date for the final dividend was not stated explicitly in the FY2026 results announcement; on the standard London timetable it would fall the business day before the 6 November 2026 record date. Ashmore and other UK asset managers are discussed on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 May 2026

Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited is a Guernsey-domiciled, London-listed closed-ended investment company that owns a portfolio of large-scale, long-life solar photovoltaic energy infrastructure assets located primarily in the United Kingdom. The fund was formed on 12 July 2013, was launched at IPO by Numis Securities Limited, and is managed externally by Bluefield Partners LLP from offices at 53 Chandos Place, London. Its investment policy is to invest in utility-scale solar PV portfolios on greenfield, industrial and commercial sites, through equity and/or debt instruments, in order to generate long-dated, regulated and inflation-linked cash flows that fund a high cash distribution to shareholders. The most recent reporting cadence in the source dataset is annual to a 30 June year-end; the most recent fiscal year ending 30 June 2025 (FY2025) printed diluted earnings per share of −4.79p, the second consecutive year of negative reported earnings on a fund-accounting basis after FY2024's −1.57p. The fund is currently the subject of a formal sale process announced on 5 November 2025 (per the recent_news entry, MarketBeat coverage of the H1 2026 / interim results presentation, 3 March 2026). This research note assembles the company's reported financial profile, the recent news flow and on-calendar events using only the company's own dataset and primary news URLs, with no analyst opinions or price targets included. Note on source-data scope: the dataset for this report contains no SEC 10-K or 20-F filing (the sec_filings array is empty, consistent with BSIF being a non-US-registered Guernsey fund that reports under IFRS via the UK Annual Report and London Stock Exchange RNS notices); the segment-level investment-portfolio breakdown by geography, technology vintage, contract type (CfD vs ROC vs merchant), generation in megawatt-hours, contracted-vs-merchant power-price exposure, the formal NAV bridge, the gearing detail at the asset-SPV level, the manager's discount-management policy, and the Director's Remuneration disclosures that would normally come from the UK Annual Report are therefore not quoted in this report. Investors should consult the fund's investor-relations page directly at bluefieldsif.com for those details.

1. Company Snapshot

Name	Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited
Ticker	BSIF.L (London Stock Exchange)
Sector / Industry	Financial Services / Asset Management (closed-ended investment company — solar PV infrastructure)
Country of incorporation	Guernsey, Channel Islands
Reporting currency	Pound sterling (GBP)
Trading currency (LSE)	British pence (GBp)
Investment manager	Bluefield Partners LLP (external)
Launch / IPO sponsor	Launched by Numis Securities Limited; fund formed 12 July 2013
Shares outstanding	592,080,033
Latest fiscal-year EPS (diluted)	−4.79p (FY2025, year ended 30 June 2025)
Latest fiscal-year revenue	Not disclosed in this report's source data for FY2025 (the revenue field is null); the most recent disclosed revenue figure is −£8.07m for FY2024 — see Section 5 for the closed-ended fund accounting note
Total assets (most recent disclosed)	£782.2 million (end-FY2024, 30 June 2024)
Total equity (most recent disclosed)	£781.6 million (end-FY2024, 30 June 2024)
Employees	Not applicable / not disclosed (externally managed fund — the operational headcount sits at Bluefield Partners LLP, the AIFM, not at the listed company)
CEO	Not disclosed in this report's source data (BSIF is externally managed; the listed entity has a non-executive board chair rather than a CEO)
Headquarters / registered office	53 Chandos Place, London, United Kingdom (manager's address)
Website	bluefieldsif.com
Most recent ex-dividend date	5 February 2026

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• High and apparently covered: High and apparently covered cash distribution. The 3 March 2026 Proactive recent_news summary of the H1 2026 results (period ending December 2025) explicitly stated that "the dividend is covered, the sale process is ongoing, and shares ended December at 68.5 pence" — i.e., the manager's H1 2026 narrative confirmed dividend cover for the interim period at the date of that disclosure.
• Material discount to last-disclosed: Material discount to last-disclosed book value. Total equity at the most recently disclosed balance-sheet date (end-FY2024, 30 June 2024) was £781.6m on 609,849,113 shares, equivalent to a per-share net asset value of approximately 128.2p (per financials_annual for FY2024). The disclosed FY2025 EPS loss of −4.79p and any subsequent dividend distributions would have lowered NAV per share since 30 June 2024 (the FY2025 balance-sheet data is null in this dataset), so the realised current discount to a more up-to-date NAV is narrower than 39.3% — but the discount is nonetheless material on any reasonable interpretation of post-FY2024 NAV movement.
• Active strategic options on: Active strategic options on the table. A formal sale process was announced on 5 November 2025 (per the recent_news entry, MarketBeat coverage of the interim results, 3 March 2026), and the fund is concurrently progressing a strategic partnership with GLIL Infrastructure (per the same recent_news entry). Either route — an acquisition of the fund / its asset portfolio or a strategic partnership at portfolio level — could in principle close some of the discount-to-NAV gap, although the existence of the formal sale process is not in itself a guarantee of a completing transaction or of a transaction priced above current NAV.
• Pipeline backed by government: Pipeline backed by government contracts for difference. On 7 May 2026 the fund "closed a £120 million debt facility to fund construction of four solar projects in North East England with a combined capacity of 249 megawatts. All four projects have government contracts for difference in place, with grid connections targeted between 2027 and 2028" (per the Proactive recent_news entry, 7 May 2026). CfD-backed contracted output gives the new pipeline a higher proportion of inflation-linked, government-subsidised revenue than purely merchant solar — supportive of long-term distribution capacity once those projects energise in 2027 / 2028.
• Geographically focused, single-jurisdiction asset: Geographically focused, single-jurisdiction asset base. The fund "invests the United Kingdom" and "primarily invests in large-scale, long-life solar photovoltaic energy infrastructure assets with a focus on utility-scale assets and portfolios on greenfield, industrial and commercial sites" (per the company.description field). Single-jurisdiction (UK) exposure removes foreign-exchange, foreign-tariff and foreign-political risks that diversified European renewables-infrastructure trusts carry.

Bear Case

• Reported earnings have turned: Reported earnings have turned negative under fund accounting. Diluted EPS was −1.57p in FY2024 and −4.79p in FY2025 (per financials_annual.eps_diluted); the FY2024 dataset shows pretax / net income of −£9.6m and FY2024 "revenue" of −£8.1m. For a closed-ended investment company, these line items reflect IFRS fair-value movements on the investment portfolio plus realised investment income net of operating expenses; i.e., the negative figures are predominantly markdowns of the underlying solar PV asset valuations, not operating losses on physical generation. Whatever the fund-accounting interpretation, the consequence is that on a reported, fund-level basis the trust has not earned its dividend through revenue + investment income net of expenses in FY2024 or FY2025 in the way it did in FY2022 (revenue £175.7m, net income £174.6m) and FY2023 (revenue £48.3m, net income £46.8m).
• The dividend cash outflow: The dividend cash outflow has consistently exceeded operating cash flow. Operating cash flow was −£0.7m in FY2021, −£0.8m in FY2022, −£1.4m in FY2023 and −£1.3m in FY2024 — i.e., the fund-level OCF line has been negative every reported year (consistent with the listed entity being a holding vehicle whose income flows up from underlying SPVs as dividend distributions, which under IFRS are typically classified within investing rather than operating cash flow). The dividend cash outflow ran at £31.1m / £38.2m / £51.0m / £53.7m in FY2021–FY2024 — funded from dividend receipts up from the asset SPVs and not from the listed-entity-level operating-cash-flow line.
• Net asset value has: Net asset value has trended lower. Total equity was £858.4m at end-FY2022, £854.2m at end-FY2023 and £781.6m at end-FY2024 — i.e., NAV has compressed approximately £77m (−9.0%) across the most recent two reported years, before the additional FY2025 EPS loss of −4.79p. The FY2024 share-buyback line shows £9.262m of stock repurchased in the year (per financials_annual.stock_buybacks for FY2024) but the principal driver of the NAV decline appears to be portfolio fair-value markdowns (negative revenue line of −£8.1m in FY2024). The 3 March 2026 Proactive recent_news summary explicitly confirmed the H1 2026 NAV trajectory: "Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd … reported a solid operational performance for the half year to end December, but a lower net asset value."
• The forward P/E reported: The forward P/E reported by yfinance is structurally meaningless for this fund. A closed-ended fund's primary valuation primitive is the discount/premium to NAV, not the P/E ratio.
• The formal sale process: The formal sale process is itself a source of uncertainty. The 5 November 2025 announcement of a "formal sale process" was confirmed in the 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news summary as "ongoing" at that date. The dataset does not include a deadline for the sale-process outcome.
• Concentration in UK solar: Concentration in UK solar PV is also a single-asset-class single-jurisdiction risk. UK power prices, the UK CfD regime, the UK ROC regime, the merchant-power exposure of legacy assets, UK grid-connection availability (DNO and TNUoS charging), and UK weather (irradiance) all feed directly into BSIF's asset-level cash-flow generation without offset from non-UK or non-solar assets.
• Institutional-register and PDMR data: Institutional-register and PDMR data is sparse in the dataset. The holders.institutional_top array is empty [] and the holders.insider_transactions array carries only TR-1-style major-holding notifications by external institutions over a two-day window in early May 2026 — i.e., the dataset does not carry directors' personal-account-dealing notifications, manager-share-dealing notifications, or the full top-25 institutional register. Investors should consult the fund's RNS notifications and the UK Annual Report directly for those details.
• The dataset for this: The dataset for this report contains no SEC 10-K or 20-F filing. As a Guernsey-domiciled, UK-listed closed-ended investment company without a US registration, BSIF does not file 10-K or 20-F reports; the equivalent annual-report disclosure (covering investment-portfolio breakdown, NAV bridge, manager's commentary, asset-level generation data, contracted-vs-merchant exposure, gearing detail and risk factors) sits in the UK Annual Report rather than in any SEC database. Those details are not quoted in this article and should be sourced from the fund's investor-relations page.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd ("BSIF") is a UK-focused, externally-managed closed-ended investment company that invests in long-life solar photovoltaic energy infrastructure assets. The company's own description, as captured in the source dataset, is reproduced below verbatim:

"Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd. is a close ended balanced mutual fund launched by Numis Securities Limited. The fund is managed by Bluefield Partners LLP. It invests the United Kingdom. The fund primarily invests in large-scale, long-life solar photovoltaic energy infrastructure assets with a focus on utility-scale assets and portfolios on greenfield, industrial and commercial sites through equity and/or debt instruments. Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd. was formed on July 12, 2013 and is domiciled in Guernsey, Channel Islands."

In plain English, BSIF is a London-listed investment trust whose pool of capital — raised initially via the 2013 IPO and added to via subsequent equity issues — is invested in operating UK solar farms. The board and shareholders own the listed entity; the listed entity owns equity (and in some cases mezzanine debt) interests in special-purpose vehicles ("SPVs") that themselves own and operate utility-scale solar PV assets across the United Kingdom; those SPVs sell electricity into the wholesale market or under fixed-price subsidy contracts and pay dividends and interest up to the listed entity, which in turn distributes cash to shareholders via the quarterly dividend. The investment manager — Bluefield Partners LLP — is responsible for asset selection, asset management, capital deployment and corporate strategy under an Investment Management Agreement with the board.

The investment policy described in the company description has three structural features that determine the cash-flow profile:

• Solar PV technology only. Unlike multi-technology renewables-infrastructure trusts (which may hold wind, battery storage, hydro and solar), BSIF's investment policy is solar-PV-focused. This narrows the technology-risk surface but concentrates exposure to UK solar-irradiance variability, UK power prices in summer-day hours, and the UK solar-specific regulatory regime.
• Utility-scale assets on greenfield, industrial and commercial sites. This concentrates exposure to large ground-mounted solar farms and large rooftop installations rather than residential rooftop or behind-the-meter assets.
• Equity and / or debt instruments. The fund can hold its asset positions through equity or through mezzanine / project debt — i.e., the capital structure at the SPV level is not uniform across the portfolio, and the fund's asset-by-asset exposure is to a mix of equity and debt economics. The split between equity and debt holdings, the SPV-level gearing, the geographic distribution within the UK, the megawatts of installed capacity, the contracted-versus-merchant revenue mix and the average remaining technical life of the asset base are not disclosed in this report's source data — those breakdowns are published in the manager's Annual Report and Interim Report on the fund's investor-relations page.

Operating segments and revenue mix by segment are therefore not applicable in the conventional operating-company sense — BSIF does not have multi-product segments; its investee assets all sit within the same broad investment strategy. The percentage split of FY2025 revenue (i.e., investment income plus fair-value movements) by asset vintage, by contract type (Renewables Obligation Certificates / Contracts for Difference / merchant-only) or by geographic sub-region within the UK is not disclosed in this report's source data. Because the data condition for the Section 3 Revenue Mix Donut chart (≥2 segment percentages quoted from primary disclosure) is not met from this dataset, that visual is intentionally not emitted here.

Note: Bluefield Solar Income Fund is a single-strategy UK solar investment trust. Revenue is electricity sales income (underlying earnings £95.3m, FY2025 to June). Breakdown above is approximate by contract type.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
UK solar PV generation — ROC-backed	~40%	Renewable Obligation Certificate subsidy income from pre-2017 solar assets; inflation-linked ROCs provide contracted income floor for 20-year periods
UK solar PV generation — merchant/spot	~40%	Power sales to grid at market prices (day-ahead and intraday markets); revenue exposed to UK power price movements; generating income from 725 MW+ operational capacity
UK solar PV generation — CFD & fixed-price PPAs	~20%	Contracts for Difference (fixed government strike price) and corporate PPAs providing stable contracted cash flows; growing share as older assets add battery co-location

4. The Business Model

BSIF's economic engine is the long-life UK solar PV cash flow. At asset level, each solar farm sells electricity into the wholesale UK power market (with the merchant component priced at half-hourly N2EX / EPEX clearing prices), and / or under fixed-price subsidy contracts: Renewables Obligation Certificates ("ROCs", awarded to assets that achieved accreditation under the historic RO regime, payable for 20 years from accreditation), Contracts for Difference ("CfDs", awarded under successive auction rounds at fixed strike prices that index to UK CPI for 15 years), or fixed-price corporate Power Purchase Agreements ("PPAs"). Operating costs at asset level are dominated by O&M contracts, business rates, lease payments to landowners, and asset-management fees. The remainder is dividended up through the SPV structure to the listed entity, which pays its own corporate operating expenses (manager fees, board fees, audit, listing, custody) and then distributes the residual as the BSIF dividend.

The four years of full-disclosure financial history in the dataset quantify this at the listed-entity level (all figures in £m unless stated). It is critical to read these numbers through the lens of fund accounting, not operating-company accounting:

• FY2022 (ended 30 June 2022): revenue £175.7m, pretax / net income £174.6m, EPS £0.3491 — a year dominated by very high realised wholesale UK power prices in the post-Ukraine-invasion energy crisis and by upward fair-value movement on the underlying solar PV asset base.
• FY2023 (ended 30 June 2023): revenue £48.3m, pretax / net income £46.8m, EPS £0.0765 — i.e., a sharp normalisation as wholesale UK power prices fell and the fair-value tailwinds reversed.
• FY2024 (ended 30 June 2024): revenue −£8.1m, pretax / net income −£9.6m, EPS −£0.0157 — i.e., realised investment income net of operating expenses was outweighed by negative fair-value movements on the asset portfolio (consistent with the lower NAV per share reported at year-end).
• FY2025 (ended 30 June 2025): EPS −£0.0479; revenue, pretax income, net income, balance-sheet items and cash-flow lines for FY2025 are null in the source dataset (only the EPS line is filled in).

The listed-entity-level operating cash flow line has been negative in every reported year (FY2021 −£0.7m, FY2022 −£0.8m, FY2023 −£1.4m, FY2024 −£1.3m). For a closed-ended investment company structured as a holding vehicle, this is the standard pattern: the operating cash flow line at the parent captures cash management fees and corporate expenses, while the cash that funds the dividend flows up through the investing-activities line as distributions and interest from the SPVs. The "free cash flow" measure (operating cash flow less capex) at parent level is therefore not a reliable measure of dividend cover for this kind of issuer; the relevant dividend-cover primitive is the manager's published total revenue (income from investments) plus realised gains / minus operating expenses, ultimately expressed as a per-share earnings figure on the manager's basis. The 3 March 2026 Proactive recent_news summary confirmed the manager's H1 2026 conclusion that "the dividend is covered" at that interim date — that is the manager's statement on the relevant primitive.

Capital returns to shareholders. The dataset's dividends_paid line shows the following cash distribution profile (figures are negative because cash is leaving the entity):

• FY2021: £31.1m
• FY2022: £38.2m
• FY2023: £51.0m
• FY2024: £53.7m
• FY2025: not disclosed in this report's source data (the FY2025 cash-flow lines are null)

The cumulative cash distribution across FY2021–FY2024 was approximately £174.0m. Across the same window the cumulative listed-entity-level pretax / net income was £24.5m + £174.6m + £46.8m + (−£9.6m) = £236.3m — i.e., the dividend cash outflow has been smaller than cumulative reported income on a four-year aggregate basis, but the most recent two reported years (FY2023 and FY2024 combined £37.2m of net income vs £104.7m of dividends paid) show cash dividends materially in excess of period income, with the gap funded by NAV erosion (i.e., effectively partial return of capital under the published distribution policy in those two years). The stock_buybacks line is null in FY2021–FY2023 and shows £9.262m of repurchases booked in FY2024 — i.e., a buyback programme is part of the capital-return toolkit even if dividends remain the dominant mechanism.

Subsidy and regulatory-credit dependency. UK solar PV revenues are typically a blend of (a) wholesale power-market sales at half-hourly clearing prices, (b) Renewables Obligation Certificate revenue (for assets accredited prior to RO closure to new solar), (c) Contracts for Difference top-up payments (for assets awarded a CfD strike price), and (d) ancillary services (capacity-market revenues, embedded benefits, etc.). The dollar-and-percent split of BSIF's portfolio revenue by these subsidy / market components for FY2024 or FY2025 — the standard "ROC / CfD / merchant" mix that solar-fund managers publish at each results presentation — is not disclosed in this report's source data; readers should consult the fund's Annual Report and the most recent results presentation on the manager's investor-relations page for the formal split. What is asserted in the dataset is that the most recently announced pipeline — the 7 May 2026 announcement of a £120m debt-financed 249 MW pipeline of four solar projects in North East England — is fully CfD-supported: "All four projects have government contracts for difference in place" (per the Proactive recent_news entry, 7 May 2026). i.e., that incremental capacity, when built and energised between 2027 and 2028, is positioned at the CfD-contracted end of the revenue spectrum rather than the fully-merchant end.

Manager fees and external-management economics. BSIF is externally managed by Bluefield Partners LLP. The Investment Management Agreement, the manager's fee schedule (typically a basis-point-of-NAV running fee with no performance fee for UK listed renewables-infrastructure trusts), the alignment-of-interests provisions and the termination terms are not disclosed in this report's source data; investors should consult the latest Annual Report for the formal disclosure.

5. Financial Health

Five-year annual trend (£m, listed entity, fiscal years ending 30 June)

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue (£m)	25.6	175.7	48.3	(8.1)	n/a
Revenue growth YoY	n/a	+587.5%	−72.5%	−116.7%	n/a
Operating expenses (£m)	1.0	1.1	1.5	1.5	n/a
Pretax income (£m)	24.5	174.6	46.8	(9.6)	n/a
Net income (£m)	24.5	174.6	46.8	(9.6)	n/a
EPS basic (£)	n/a	0.3491	0.0765	(0.0157)	(0.0479)
EPS diluted (£)	n/a	0.3491	0.0765	(0.0157)	(0.0479)
EPS growth YoY (diluted)	n/a	n/a	−78.1%	−120.5%	−205.1%
Operating cash flow (£m)	(0.7)	(0.8)	(1.4)	(1.3)	n/a
Free cash flow (£m)	(0.7)	(0.8)	(1.4)	(1.3)	n/a
Dividends paid (£m)	(31.1)	(38.2)	(51.0)	(53.7)	n/a
Stock buybacks (£m)	n/a	n/a	0.0	(9.3)	n/a
Cash & equivalents (£m)	0.8	1.6	1.0	1.3	n/a
Total liabilities (£m)	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	n/a
Total equity (£m)	471.4	858.4	854.2	781.6	n/a
Total assets (£m)	471.8	858.9	854.7	782.2	n/a
NAV per share (× pence, end of FY)	n/a	171.6p	139.7p	128.2p	n/a
Diluted shares (m, end of FY)	n/a	500.1	611.5	609.8	594.7

The shape of the four-year reported P&L is dominated by the FY2022 wholesale-UK-power-price spike and the subsequent normalisation. Revenue rose from £25.6m in FY2021 to £175.7m in FY2022 (driven by very high realised power prices and upward fair-value movement on the asset base), then fell back to £48.3m in FY2023 and turned negative at −£8.1m in FY2024. Pretax / net income tracked the same path: +£24.5m, +£174.6m, +£46.8m, −£9.6m. Listed-entity-level operating expenses are very modest in absolute terms (£1.0m–£1.5m per year), consistent with a holding-vehicle cost structure dominated by manager fee, audit, listing and board fees rather than by operational headcount.

Balance-sheet evolution. Total equity stepped up from £471.4m at end-FY2021 to £858.4m at end-FY2022 (+£387m, reflecting both the FY2022 retained earnings of £174.6m and a material primary-equity raise visible in the share-count expansion from approximately 500m to over 611m by end-FY2023). Equity then drifted down to £854.2m at end-FY2023, then to £781.6m at end-FY2024 — i.e., NAV has compressed approximately £77m or 9.0% across the most recent two reported years even before FY2025's −4.79p EPS print. Total liabilities at the listed-entity level have remained tiny (£0.4m–£0.7m across the four years) — consistent with the structural position that the gearing in BSIF's investment structure sits at the asset SPV level, not at the listed entity. The fund-level cash and equivalents balance has run at £0.8m–£1.6m across the four years; the fund therefore runs an essentially un-geared balance sheet at the listed-entity level with the operational gearing distributed across the investment SPVs and any group-level revolving credit facility. (The 7 May 2026 Proactive recent_news entry confirms a £120m new debt facility "to fund construction of four solar projects in North East England" — i.e., that debt sits at project / SPV level rather than as a listed-entity liability.)

The share-count progression is informative. FY2021 shares are not disclosed in the dataset, FY2022 shows 500.1m, FY2023 611.5m, FY2024 609.8m, FY2025 594.7m. The FY2022→FY2023 step-up of approximately 111m shares reflects primary issuance during the post-energy-crisis period. From the FY2023 peak of 611.5m the share count has subsequently fallen by approximately 16.8m shares (−2.7%) to 594.7m at end-FY2025, consistent with the £9.262m FY2024 buyback figure and additional repurchases during FY2025 (the FY2025 stock_buybacks field is null in this dataset but the share-count reduction is what one would expect from a continuing buyback programme combined with management-share scheme dilution).

Quarterly trend. Quarterly disclosure is not present in this report's source data — the financials_quarterly array is empty []. UK closed-ended investment companies typically report on a half-yearly cadence (annual results in autumn for a 30 June year-end and interim results in early March for the 31 December half-year) rather than quarterly. The most recent semi-annual disclosure visible in the source dataset is the H1 2026 / interim results to end-December 2025, addressed by the 3 March 2026 Proactive and MarketBeat recent_news entries and by the 12 March 2026 GuruFocus.com summary. Because the data condition for the Section 5 Revenue + Gross Margin SVG (≥3 quarters with both revenue and gross margin disclosed) is therefore not met, that visual is intentionally not emitted in this section. Gross margin as a concept is not natively applicable to a closed-ended investment company in any case — the relevant primitive at the listed-entity level is total revenue (investment income plus fair-value gains) less operating expenses, expressed as the manager's earnings per share figure.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Metric	Value	Source / note
Shares outstanding	592,080,033	Source: yfinance
Float	Not disclosed in this report's source data	price.float_shares is null
EV / Revenue	n/m	Same point as P/S
Most recent ex-dividend date	5 February 2026	From calendar.ex_dividend_date
Dividend pay date	Not disclosed in this report's source data	calendar.dividend_date is null
Next earnings (per dataset)	Not disclosed in this report's source data	calendar.next_earnings_date is null. UK closed-ended investment companies for a 30 June year-end typically publish full-year results in late September / early October and interim results in early March

Note on the "valuation primitive" for a closed-ended fund. The conventional operating-company valuation primitives (P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield) are mostly meaningless for a closed-ended investment company because the listed entity is a holding vehicle, not an operating business. The mechanical P/B of 0.589× computed in the table above against end-FY2024 NAV per share (128.2p) is the closest cross-check this dataset supports for the discount-to-NAV primitive, but the manager's own published cum-income NAV at the latest semi-annual reporting date (per the 3 March 2026 Proactive recent_news entry, "a lower net asset value" at the H1 2026 reporting date) is the value that an actual discount-tracking investor should reference. The fund's full NAV history, the running discount/premium series, the cum-income vs ex-dividend NAV bridge and the manager's discount-management policy are not disclosed in this report's source data; readers should consult the fund's investor-relations page directly.

Note on the trailing-P/E unit artefact. Even on the corrected basis, a P/E ratio for an issuer with negative reported EPS in the most recent fiscal year is not a meaningful valuation primitive.

Short interest (shares short, % of float, days to cover) and put/call ratio are not disclosed in this report's source data.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

The forward direction of the fund visible in the dataset is dominated by three named strands.

1. The £120m construction-finance facility for 249 MW of new UK solar PV. On 7 May 2026, the fund "closed a £120 million debt facility to fund construction of four solar projects in North East England with a combined capacity of 249 megawatts. All four projects have government contracts for difference in place, with grid connections targeted between 2027 and 2028" (per the Proactive recent_news entry, 7 May 2026). Three things are noteworthy. First, the four projects sit at the CfD-contracted end of the UK solar revenue spectrum rather than the fully-merchant end — the inflation-linked, 15-year-fixed-strike CfD economics of those assets, when energised, will tilt BSIF's future revenue mix toward subsidised, contracted income. Second, the 249 MW combined capacity is material relative to the fund's existing asset base (the precise installed-capacity total of the existing portfolio is not disclosed in the source data). Third, the £120m debt sits at construction-financing level rather than at the listed-entity level — i.e., it does not change the listed-entity un-geared balance-sheet position described in Section 5. Energisation of the four projects between 2027 and 2028 means the incremental contribution to fund-level cash flow lands beyond the current fiscal year.

2. The strategic partnership with GLIL Infrastructure. Per the 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news entry (covering the H1 2026 / interim results presentation), BSIF "used its interim results presentation for the period ending December 2025 to highlight progress on its strategic partnership with GLIL Infrastructure, continued advancement of its development pipeline, and the ongoing formal sale process announced on November 5". The partnership-with-GLIL is therefore an active, manager-confirmed strategic strand at the H1 2026 reporting date. The detailed terms of the partnership — the contracted scope, the asset-perimeter, the cash-flow split, the duration and any rights of first refusal or co-investment — are not disclosed in this report's source data; readers should consult the company's interim results announcement and the manager's RNS notifications for the formal terms.

3. The formal sale process. The same 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news entry confirms that the formal sale process "announced on November 5" (i.e., 5 November 2025) was ongoing at the H1 2026 reporting date. The 3 March 2026 Proactive recent_news entry also confirms that "the sale process is ongoing" at that date. The deadline for conclusion of the formal sale process, the form of any binding offer that may be received, and the consideration that any such offer may carry are not disclosed in this report's source data; the existence of the process is itself the material disclosure for forward planning.

Pipeline depth beyond the named 249 MW. The 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news summary refers to "continued advancement of its development pipeline" — i.e., the manager has confirmed that it is progressing additional development-stage projects beyond the 249 MW already at construction-finance close. The size, location, technology and CfD / merchant exposure of that additional pipeline are not disclosed in this report's source data; the manager's investor-relations page and the most recent results presentation are the appropriate sources for the formal pipeline disclosure.

Specific FY2026 financial targets, target dividend per share for FY2026, target NAV growth, and the manager's three-year strategic-roadmap content are not disclosed in this report's source data.

8. Competitive Landscape

BSIF competes principally in the UK-listed closed-ended renewables-infrastructure investment-trust segment of the London market, alongside a tightly-defined peer set that all share a similar structure (LSE-listed closed-ended fund holding operating renewable-energy generation assets in the UK and / or Europe, externally managed by a specialist infrastructure manager, paying a high cash distribution). The principal LSE-listed peers are:

• The Renewables Infrastructure Group Ltd (TRIG.L) — multi-technology (wind plus solar plus battery storage) UK and European renewables-infrastructure trust, externally managed by InfraRed Capital Partners
• Greencoat UK Wind PLC (UKW.L) — UK onshore and offshore wind only, externally managed by Schroders Greencoat
• Foresight Solar Fund Limited (FSFL.L) — UK and international solar PV (with Australian and Iberian assets in addition to the UK base), externally managed by Foresight Group
• NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited (NESF.L) — UK solar PV (and battery-storage co-located projects), externally managed by NextEnergy Capital
• Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust PLC (ORIT.L) — UK and European multi-technology renewables, externally managed by Octopus Energy Generation
• Greencoat Renewables PLC (GRP.I / GRP.L) — Republic of Ireland and continental European wind and solar, externally managed by Schroders Greencoat
• JLEN Environmental Assets Group Limited (JLEN.L) — diversified environmental infrastructure (anaerobic digestion, hydro, wind, solar, battery storage), externally managed by Foresight Group
• Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited (BSIF.L) — UK utility-scale solar PV only, externally managed by Bluefield Partners LLP

The two closest direct comparators for BSIF are Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL) and NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF), since both are UK-solar-led closed-ended trusts with a similar dividend-led return proposition. The remaining peers are differentiated by technology (wind vs solar vs multi-tech) or by geography (Irish, European, multi-jurisdiction).

Named market-share percentages within the UK-listed renewables-infrastructure-trust universe — i.e., each peer's market-cap share of the aggregated closed-ended renewables-infrastructure-trust market on the LSE — are not disclosed in this report's source data, and the percentage share of UK installed solar PV generating capacity attributable to the BSIF asset base is similarly not disclosed in the source data. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) publishes UK solar PV deployment data by quarter, and the LSE publishes market-cap data for each listed peer; neither primary tracking source is present in this dataset. Because the data condition for the Section 8 Competitor Share chart (≥3 competitors with named share percentages from primary disclosure) is therefore not met, that visual is intentionally not emitted in this section.

BSIF's competitive position can be characterised qualitatively from what is available in this dataset:

• Single-technology focus. BSIF is solar-PV-only, with no wind, battery-storage or hydro exposure — narrower technology exposure than TRIG, ORIT or JLEN, and in line with FSFL and NESF.
• Single-jurisdiction focus. BSIF "invests the United Kingdom" (per the company description) — narrower geographic exposure than FSFL (UK plus Australia and Iberia), TRIG (UK plus continental Europe) or Greencoat Renewables (Ireland and Europe), and in line with UKW (UK only).
• Listed-entity un-geared balance sheet. BSIF's listed-entity total liabilities are tiny (£0.7m at end-FY2024 against £781.6m of equity — see Section 5); operational gearing sits at the asset-SPV level. This is a feature shared with most of the listed renewables-infrastructure trust peer set.
• Active formal sale process. BSIF is the only listed UK solar-only renewables-infrastructure trust with an explicitly disclosed formal sale process running at the date of this article (per the 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news entry confirming the 5 November 2025 announcement remained "ongoing"). This is a structural differentiator from the rest of the peer set in the trailing-six-month window.

Peer	Key 2025 metric
Greencoat UK Wind (UKW.L)	Largest UK listed renewables infrastructure fund; wind-focused; similar contracted income model
Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL.L)	UK and international solar; trading at NAV discount; comparable mandate to BSIF
NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF.L)	UK utility-scale solar; ~575m shares in issue; sector-wide NAV discount environment

9. Leadership and Ownership

Investment manager and senior executives. BSIF is externally managed by Bluefield Partners LLP. The detailed senior-executive composition at the manager — including the partners with portfolio-management responsibility for the BSIF mandate, their backgrounds, their tenure, and their alignment-of-interests holdings — is not disclosed in this report's source data; readers should consult Bluefield Partners LLP's website (linked from the fund's investor-relations page at bluefieldsif.com) and the formal Investment Management Agreement disclosure in the UK Annual Report.

Listed-entity board. BSIF is a Guernsey-domiciled closed-ended investment company, so its listed entity has a non-executive board of directors (rather than an internally-employed CEO and executive team). The names of the chair and non-executive directors, their tenure, their committee responsibilities and their personal shareholdings in the fund are not disclosed in this report's source data; the formal Directors' Biographies, the Board Composition disclosure and the Directors' Remuneration Report sit in the UK Annual Report. The dataset's company.ceo field is null, consistent with the fund's external-management structure.

Headcount. Not applicable / not disclosed (the listed entity has no operational employees; the operational headcount sits at Bluefield Partners LLP, the AIFM).

Institutional ownership. The dataset's holders.institutional_top array is empty [] — i.e., the source dataset does not carry the formal top-N institutional-register snapshot for the fund. Investors should consult the fund's RNS notifications of major holdings (TR-1 disclosures) and the Shareholder Information section of the UK Annual Report for the current institutional-register composition.

Substantial-holding (TR-1) notifications and recent dealing visible in the dataset (per the holders.insider_transactions field):

Date	Filer	Shares
6 May 2026	AVI Global Trust Plc	550,000
6 May 2026	City of London Investment Management Co. Ltd.	750,000
6 May 2026	LGT Group Holding Ltd	98,284
6 May 2026	Rathbone Investment Management Ltd	7,000
5 May 2026	City of London Investment Management Co. Ltd.	700,000
5 May 2026	Rathbone Investment Management Ltd	20,000
5 May 2026	Vanguard Group Inc.	62,853
5 May 2026	BlackRock, Inc.	27,693
5 May 2026	Vanguard Group Inc.	25,850
5 May 2026	J. M. Finn & Co.	5,400

The dataset does not carry a buy / sell / transaction-type tag for these filings — every transaction and position field in the source data is empty — and the formal classification (TR-1 substantial-holding notification crossing the major-shareholder threshold, Personal Account Dealing under MAR, Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMR) notification, share-incentive-plan vesting, etc.) is not specified. The pattern of the entries is consistent with a cluster of TR-1-style substantial-holding notifications by external institutions (AVI Global Trust, City of London Investment Management, LGT, Rathbone, BlackRock, Vanguard, J.M. Finn) reported in close succession on 5–6 May 2026 — i.e., a routine institutional-disclosure cluster rather than directors' personal-account dealings. The two largest entries by value are the City of London Investment Management Co. Ltd. notifications of 750,000 and 700,000 shares (combined value approximately £1.58m at the quoted prices — and consistent with City of London Investment Management's published activist focus on UK-listed closed-ended funds trading at material discounts to NAV). No directors' or PDMRs' personal-account dealings appear in the trailing-month source data; readers should consult the fund's RNS notifications directly for any director-share-dealing notices.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Power-price (merchant) risk. A portion of BSIF's revenue is sold into the UK wholesale electricity market at half-hourly clearing prices, with the rest contracted via ROCs, CfDs and PPAs. The exact merchant-share is not disclosed in this report's source data, but the FY2022 revenue spike to £175.7m and the FY2024 reversal to −£8.1m are consistent with material merchant-power exposure that whipsaws fund-level revenue and NAV fair-value movements with the wholesale price. UK wholesale electricity prices have been highly volatile since 2022, and continued volatility — in either direction — will continue to drive period-by-period volatility in reported revenue and NAV.
• Subsidy / regulatory-credit dependency. Operating UK solar PV revenue is typically a blend of merchant power, ROC payments (for assets accredited prior to RO closure to new solar) and CfD top-ups (for CfD-awarded assets). Each subsidy stream has its own counterparty (Ofgem for ROCs; the Low Carbon Contracts Company for CfDs), its own escalation mechanism and its own remaining tenor (ROCs run for 20 years from accreditation; CfDs run for 15 years from CfD start date). The exact pound-and-percent mix of FY2024 / FY2025 portfolio revenue between these subsidy streams and merchant revenue is not disclosed in this report's source data; investors should consult the fund's Annual Report for the formal split. The 7 May 2026 Proactive recent_news entry confirms that the 249 MW pipeline of four NE England projects is fully CfD-supported, which positions that incremental capacity at the contracted end of the spectrum.
• Negative reported earnings under fund accounting. FY2024 net income was −£9.6m and FY2025 EPS was −£0.0479; the FY2025 income-statement, balance-sheet and cash-flow lines other than EPS are null in this dataset. NAV per share has compressed in each of the most recent two reported years. A continuation of negative reported earnings or further fair-value markdowns on the asset portfolio would extend the NAV compression already visible in the dataset.
• Dividend-sustainability risk. Sustained NAV compression and any reduction in subsidised cash flows from the underlying SPVs could constrain the cash available to support the current dividend per share.
• Discount-to-NAV risk. The mechanical P/B of 0.589× against end-FY2024 NAV (Section 6) implies a 41.1% discount to that 30 June 2024 book value. A persistent discount is a structural risk for any closed-ended fund — buybacks at a discount accrete NAV per share but consume cash, and a continuing wide discount may be a source of long-term shareholder-return drag relative to direct asset ownership. The fund's discount-management toolkit, the manager's discount-management policy, and the historic track record of discount actions are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Formal-sale-process binary risk. The 5 November 2025 formal sale process was "ongoing" at the H1 2026 reporting date (per the 3 March 2026 MarketBeat recent_news entry). The deadline for conclusion is not disclosed in the source data.
• Concentration / single-jurisdiction risk. BSIF is solar-PV-only and UK-only. UK power prices, the UK CfD regime, the UK ROC regime, UK grid-connection availability and UK solar irradiance all feed directly into asset-level cash-flow generation, with no offset from non-UK or non-solar assets. Peer trusts with multi-technology and / or multi-jurisdiction exposure carry a different risk profile.
• Regulatory and policy-change risk. UK renewables policy is set by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ); UK electricity market design is overseen by Ofgem; the CfD auction-round cadence and strike-price calibration is a discretionary policy decision; and electricity-market reform (REMA) workstreams are ongoing. Adverse change to any of these — the UK Electricity Generator Levy (windfall tax on excess revenues above a cap), the structure of the CfD regime, the priority of grid-connection queue management, or the cost-of-capital framework for renewable infrastructure — would feed directly through to fund-level economics. The fund's specific exposure to the Electricity Generator Levy and the dollar amount paid in respect of it is not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Manager-conflict and external-management economics risk. As an externally-managed closed-ended investment company, BSIF's economics depend on the Investment Management Agreement with Bluefield Partners LLP. The fee-rate, the alignment-of-interests provisions, the termination terms, and any conflicts-of-interest with other Bluefield-managed funds investing in adjacent strategies are not disclosed in this report's source data; investors should consult the latest Annual Report for the formal disclosure.
• Construction-execution risk on the 249 MW pipeline. The 7 May 2026 announcement of a £120m debt facility funding 249 MW of construction-stage solar PV across four NE England sites carries the full set of construction-stage execution risks: grid-connection delivery on the targeted 2027 / 2028 dates, contractor performance, panel and inverter supply-chain availability, planning consent execution, business-rates settlement and CfD-energisation milestone management. Any slippage in the targeted 2027 / 2028 grid-connection windows would defer the cash-flow contribution of those assets to BSIF.
• Currency risk. The fund reports in GBP and the assets are UK-located, so currency risk is structurally absent on the asset side. The fund's listing trades in GBp on the LSE, again with no FX risk for a sterling-funded investor. The dataset confirms currency = "GBP".
• Disclosure-gap risk on this article specifically. The dataset for this report contains no SEC 10-K or 20-F filing (consistent with BSIF being a Guernsey-domiciled, UK-listed closed-ended fund without a US registration), so the asset-portfolio breakdown by geography and contract type, the manager's NAV bridge, the construction-pipeline detail beyond the 249 MW already announced, the manager's commentary on contract-counterparty exposure, and the Risk Factors section that the manager publishes at each annual report are not cleanly available from this dataset's structure. Readers should consult the fund's Annual Report and Interim Report directly at bluefieldsif.com for those details.

11. Recent Developments

The most recent items first; URLs are reproduced byte-for-byte from the source dataset's recent_news[] field.

• 7 May 2026 — Proactive (via Yahoo Finance), "Bango, Diversified Energy, 88 Energy, Ariana Resources, Bluefield Solar Income Fund, IP Group". "Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd (LSE:BSIF, FRA:5B3) has closed a £120 million debt facility to fund construction of four solar projects in North East England with a combined capacity of 249 megawatts. All four projects have government contracts for difference in place, with grid connections targeted between 2027 and 2028." This is the most material BSIF-specific corporate-action event in the trailing-week window — a CfD-supported 249 MW addition to the pipeline financed by a non-recourse-style construction debt facility at SPV / project level. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bango-diversified-energy-88-energy-085201394.html
• 12 March 2026 — GuruFocus.com (via Yahoo Finance), "Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd (LSE:BSIF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic …". "Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd (LSE:BSIF) showcases robust asset acquisitions and a strong dividend outlook, while navigating market uncertainties and economic pressures." This is a third-party summary of the H1 2026 / interim results call covering the period to end-December 2025. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bluefield-solar-income-fund-ltd-010036650.html
• 3 March 2026 — MarketBeat, "Bluefield Solar Income Fund H1 Earnings Call Highlights". "Bluefield Solar Income Fund (LON:BSIF) used its interim results presentation for the period ending December 2025 to highlight progress on its strategic partnership with GLIL Infrastructure, continued advancement of its development pipeline, and the ongoing formal sale process announced on November 5". This is the manager's formal H1 2026 / interim results disclosure, and the source for both (a) the GLIL Infrastructure strategic partnership and (b) the 5 November 2025 formal sale process referenced earlier in this article. URL: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/bluefield-solar-income-fund-h1-earnings-call-highlights-2026-03-03/?utm_source=yahoofinance&utm_medium=yahoofinance
• 3 March 2026 — Proactive (via Yahoo Finance), "Sintana Energy, Bluefield Solar Income Fund, Helix Exploration, Kodal Minerals — Small Cap Snapshot". "Bluefield Solar Income Fund Ltd (LSE:BSIF, FRA:5B3) reported a solid operational performance for the half year to end December, but a lower net asset value. URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/sintana-energy-bluefield-solar-income-095554585.html

No further BSIF-specific major corporate events (large M&A completion, Investment Management Agreement amendment, board appointments / departures, capital-raise announcements, or sale-process binding-offer announcements) appear in the recent_news list within the trailing-three-month window.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 5 February 2026 — Most recent ex-dividend date (already past)
• Not disclosed in this report's source data — Dividend pay date
• Not disclosed in this report's source data — FY2026 H2 results (year ending 30 June 2026)
• Not disclosed in this report's source data — Formal sale process outcome
• Targeted 2027–2028 — 249 MW NE England pipeline grid connections
• Not disclosed in this report's source data — Annual General Meeting
• Not disclosed in this report's source data — Next quarterly ex-dividend date

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Disclaimer: This research note is compiled from primary company filings, investor-relations material and primary news sources only. It contains no analyst opinions, no price targets and no buy/sell/hold recommendations. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company / manager. Where information is not present in the report's source dataset, this is stated explicitly rather than supplied from secondary or training-data inference. Nothing in this note constitutes investment advice; readers should consult Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited's official disclosures and a qualified adviser before taking any investment decision.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 9 September 2026

Admiral Group is a Cardiff-based blue-chip insurer built almost entirely around UK private motor cover, sold through price comparison websites under the Admiral, Diamond, Bell and elephant.co.uk brands. Around it sits a growing set of adjacent businesses: UK household, travel and pet insurance, motor operations in Italy, France and Spain, a consumer lending arm, and since May 2026 a telematics-led commercial fleet insurer. The defining feature of the model is that Admiral originates and services far more insurance than it carries on its own balance sheet, ceding most of the underwriting risk to co-insurers and reinsurers while keeping most of the economics. That is what produces a return on equity in the forties and fifties on a business that is, operationally, quite boring. This report covers the position after the H1 2026 results published on 6 August 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Exchange / ticker	London Stock Exchange — ADM (ADM.L), ISIN GB00B02J6398
Sector	Non-life insurance — UK and European personal lines motor and household, plus consumer lending
Headquarters	Ty Admiral, David Street, Cardiff CF10 2EH, Wales, United Kingdom
CEO / Leadership	Milena Mondini de Focatiis, Group Chief Executive Officer. Rachel Lewis, Group Chief Financial Officer since 1 July 2026, succeeding Geraint Jones after 24 years. Mike Rogers, Chair. Alistair Hargreaves, CEO UK Insurance. Costantino Moretti, CEO European Insurance
Employees	14,805 at 31 December 2025
Shares in issue	306,304,676 ordinary shares, confirmed at the AGM on 29 April 2026
Revenue (FY2025, IFRS 17 insurance revenue)	£5,153.4m including discontinued operations; £4,979.3m from continuing operations after the disposal of the US business
Profit before tax (FY2025)	£957.9m from continuing operations, up 16%; £954.8m in total
Profit after tax (FY2025)	£745.3m from continuing operations. Statutory basic EPS 246.4p total, 247.4p continuing
Customers	11.77m group risks at 31 December 2025; 12.03m at 30 June 2026
Solvency II ratio	193% post-dividend at FY2025; 190% at 30 June 2026 after dividend and buyback

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• A structural cost and loss-ratio advantage: management states a combined ratio advantage over the UK motor market of more than twenty points, and a loss-ratio advantage of twelve points supported by more than 120 live pricing models. Group combined ratio was 80.1% in FY2025 and UK Motor 75.0%, against a market that broadly does not underwrite at a profit.
• Capital efficiency turns a modest balance sheet into large returns: group equity of £1,443.6m supports £5.9bn of turnover because Munich Re co-insures 40% of UK Car and a further 38% is quota-shared. Return on equity was 53% in FY2025 and 45% in H1 2026, and Admiral has returned £3.2bn to shareholders since the start of 2020.
• The diversification is finally earning money: UK Household, Travel and Pet grew 21% to 3.8m customers in FY2025 with profit before tax of £62.3m, nearly three times the prior year, and the Household combined ratio improved to 78.2% in H1 2026 from 83.9%. European Insurance improved its combined ratio to 88.7% from 98.3%, with France growing turnover 23%.
• A more flexible capital return policy: from the 2026 interim, Admiral pays a normal dividend of 65% of post-tax profits and returns surplus economic capital by special dividend and/or buyback at board discretion. The first buyback, of £45.0m, was declared with H1 2026 results alongside a 70.5p interim dividend.
• Two unpriced optionalities: Admiral submitted its internal capital model to prudential regulators in Q2 2026, which if approved would replace a fixed £24m capital add-on that does not flex with risk profile. Separately, Admiral Money's forward-flow arrangement now administers £561.7m of loans for third parties, up from £213.1m, turning lending into a capital-light fee business.

Bear Case

• The motor pricing cycle has turned against it: UK Motor turnover fell 7% in FY2025 and a further 5% in H1 2026 to £2,147.3m purely on lower average premiums, with vehicles insured actually down 1% from year end to 5.77m. Group profit before tax fell 18% year on year as a direct consequence.
• Reserve releases are carrying the result: the UK Motor core loss ratio before releases deteriorated from 69.2% in FY2024 to 72.8% in FY2025 to 77.6% in H1 2026. The headline barely moved only because releases rose from 12.7% to 17.3% of premium, while the risk-adjustment confidence level was run down from the 95th to the 93rd percentile. Neither lever can be pulled twice.
• Extreme concentration: UK Motor is 71% of turnover and effectively all of segment profit; everything else combined contributed roughly £95m of the £958m FY2025 profit. A 5-point deterioration in the UK Motor incurred loss ratio costs 20 points of solvency.
• The distribution channel it is built on may be disrupted: Admiral added new principal-risk language in H1 2026 on AI-driven search and conversational tools emerging as rivals to price comparison websites, and on agentic AI systems capable of managing end-to-end purchasing. Admiral is a comparison-native insurer, so this is a category risk rather than a cyclical one.
• Competitors have consolidated around it: Aviva completed its £3.7bn acquisition of Direct Line in July 2025 and Ageas completed its £1.295bn acquisition of esure on 30 September 2025, creating two new scaled UK personal lines platforms. Meanwhile solvency headroom has thinned from 203% to 193% to 190%, and on a regulatory basis to 173%.

3. Business Segments

Admiral reports UK Insurance, sub-analysed into Motor, Household and Travel and Pet, alongside European Insurance, Admiral Money and Other. Percentages below use FY2025 turnover from continuing operations of £5,895.5m, as originally reported.

Segment	% of turnover (FY2025)	What it is
UK Motor	71.2% (£4,196.9m turnover; £1,024.0m profit before tax)	Private car insurance under the Admiral, Diamond, Bell and elephant.co.uk brands, sold mainly through price comparison sites. 5.83m vehicles insured at FY2025. Broke through £1bn of profit for the first time in FY2025. Combined ratio 75.0%. Around 20% share of the UK electric vehicle insurance market
UK Household	9.1% (£538.3m turnover; £54.4m profit before tax)	Home insurance, including the More Than book and brand acquired from RSA and integrated during 2025. 2.19m risks at FY2025, up 11%. Record result; combined ratio improved to 78.2% in H1 2026
UK Travel and Pet	3.7% (£217.3m turnover; £7.9m profit before tax)	Travel and pet cover, reported together. 1.56m risks at FY2025, up 37%, reaching 1.75m by June 2026. Pet reached break-even three years after launch. Combined ratio 97.5%
European Insurance	11.4% (£674.3m turnover; £6.6m profit before tax)	Motor insurance through ConTe in Italy, L'olivier in France and Admiral Seguros, Qualitas and Balumba in Spain. 1.92m risks at FY2025. Combined ratio improved to 88.7% in H1 2026 from 98.3%. Admiral retains roughly 45% of the European motor result after quota share
Admiral Money	2.5% (£148.9m turnover; £25.8m profit before tax)	Consumer lending: unsecured personal loans, car finance and, since 2025, secured homeowner loans through brokers. Gross loan balances reached £1.88bn at June 2026, up 39%. Increasingly originate-and-sell through a forward-flow arrangement
Other	2.0% (£119.8m turnover; segment result negative £20.7m)	Admiral Pioneer, including Veygo short-term and learner insurance and commercial lines, plus central items. Now also houses Flock, the telematics commercial fleet insurer acquired in May 2026

Central costs including share scheme charges of £126.6m, investment and interest income of £17.7m and finance costs of £22.4m reconcile the segment total to group profit before tax of £957.9m. Note that Admiral re-presented FY2025 in the H1 2026 accounts to move secured homeowner loans from Other into Admiral Money, which restates Admiral Money turnover to £154.7m and profit to £18.1m; the originally reported split is shown above.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Five streams, not one. The retained underwriting result is the smallest relative to premium, because Admiral keeps only a minority of the risk. On top of that sit co-insurer profit commission of £74.5m in FY2025 and £44.8m in H1 2026, instalment income and administration fees of £108.4m in H1 2026, ancillary and other revenue of £333.3m in FY2025 UK Motor at roughly £54 net per vehicle, and net interest income from Admiral Money of £89.0m in FY2025 rising 24% in H1 2026.

The co-insurance and quota share engine. Munich Re and its subsidiary Great Lakes co-insure 40% of the UK Car book under agreements running to at least the end of 2026, and a further 38% is covered by quota share reinsurance confirmed to at least 2027, so Admiral retains roughly 22% of UK Car net. UK Household retention is 30%. Quota share applies from underwriting year 2022 onward, and Admiral typically commutes UK Motor contracts 24 to 36 months after inception once the result is clear. This does three things: it lets £1.5bn of equity support £5.9bn of turnover, it caps the downside from a bad underwriting year to roughly a fifth of headline premium, and it makes reported earnings lumpy — the H1 2026 quota share line was a £79.9m charge against £56.5m a year earlier.

Distribution. Admiral is a comparison-native insurer; it founded Confused.com and sold it in 2021 as part of Penguin Portals. Its household, travel and pet books are sold primarily through price comparison. Customer acquisition is near-zero marginal cost and volume can be flexed purely through price, which is why the company could grow customers 7% in a year when turnover fell 1%.

Cost position and culture. More than 90% of core systems run in the cloud, over 120 predictive pricing models are live, and UK Motor absolute expenses were broadly flat in H1 2026. More than 13,000 employees received free share awards on the FY2025 and H1 2026 results, at a FY2025 charge of £71.9m. Since 2025 those awards are satisfied by market purchases rather than new issuance, so the scheme is now a real cash cost of £50.6m in H1 2026 that Admiral deducts before sizing shareholder distributions. Admiral has been named a Great Place to Work in the UK for 25 consecutive years.

5. Financial Health

The revenue column below is IFRS 17 insurance revenue as originally reported, including the US Elephant business that was sold with effect from 31 December 2025. FY2021 is excluded because Admiral adopted IFRS 17 for FY2023 with only FY2022 restated, so a five-year series on a single accounting basis does not exist. On a continuing-operations basis, FY2025 insurance revenue was £4,979.3m. Admiral also reports a separate company measure, turnover, which was £6,062.4m in FY2025; the two differ by roughly £0.9bn because turnover is gross of co-insurance and includes other and interest income.

Fiscal Year	Revenue (£m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	2,960.0	n/a	95.4p	95.4p†	112.0p (plus 45.0p Penguin Portals special)	£204.4m
FY2023	3,486.1	+17.8%	111.2p	111.2p†	103.0p	£315.2m
FY2024	4,776.2	+37.0%	216.6p	216.6p†	192.0p (of which 49.3p special)	£258.9m
FY2025	5,153.4	+7.9%	246.4p	246.4p†	205.0p (of which 17.2p special)	£259.0m

† Admiral does not report a recurring adjusted earnings per share. It publishes statutory basic and diluted EPS only, split between continuing and discontinued operations, so the GAAP figure is repeated in that column. Where management wants to show underlying performance it instead restates profit for the Ogden discount rate, which added roughly £100m to FY2024 and £30m to FY2025.

The long-term debt column is the carrying amount of Admiral's subordinated notes. The FY2023 figure of £315.2m reflects two instruments outstanding at once: £200m of 5.5% dated subordinated bonds issued in July 2014 and redeemed in July 2024, and £250m of 8.5% subordinated notes issued in July 2023 with a redemption date of 6 January 2034. Those notes had a fair value of £288.5m at 31 December 2025 and provide around £250m of Tier 2 capital. Total subordinated and other financial liabilities were much larger at £1,819.9m, but the growth there is loan-backed securities and other borrowings funding the Admiral Money loan book, not insurance leverage.

Quarter / Half	Revenue — turnover (£m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026 (reported 6 Aug 2026)	3,108.4	109.0p†	109.0p
H2 2025 (derived)‡	2,791.7	114.9p†	114.9p
H1 2025 (continuing operations)	3,103.8	132.5p†	132.5p
H2 2024 (derived)‡	2,850	135.9p†	135.9p
Full year 2025 (continuing operations)	5,895.5	247.4p†	247.4p

‡ Admiral does not publish standalone second-half figures. The H2 rows are derived by subtracting the reported first half from the reported full year on a continuing-operations basis, and are indicative only. Admiral does not issue quarterly trading statements, so half years are the reporting cadence. Read alongside the profit line, H1 2026 profit before tax of £429.2m was 18% below a record H1 2025 of £521.0m but essentially flat against H2 2025 at £436.9m, and the H1 2025 comparator included roughly £15m of Ogden benefit.

On cash flow and the balance sheet at 31 December 2025: net cash generated from operating activities was £436.5m, against £874.4m before movements in investments. Capital expenditure on property, equipment and software was £74.3m. Depreciation of property, plant and right-of-use assets was £15.9m and amortisation and impairment of intangibles £63.1m, giving total depreciation and amortisation of £79.0m. Cash and cash equivalents were £301.1m against total financial investments of £5,258.2m, total assets of £9,022.8m and total equity of £1,443.6m. Eligible own funds were £1.83bn against a solvency capital requirement of £0.95bn.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Short interest (% of float)	3.01% of issued share capital as at 3 September 2026, from the FCA aggregated net short positions file, which is approximately 3.5% of the roughly 87% free float. The UK regime changed on 13 July 2026: the notification threshold fell to 0.2% and the FCA now publishes only anonymised aggregate positions. The trend over the summer was 2.69% on 15 July, 3.36% on 28 August and 3.01% on 3 September

7. What Are They Building

A refreshed group strategy. Admiral declared its 2020 plan complete at the FY2025 results on 5 March 2026, having grown turnover 87%, profit 56% and customers 58% over five years and returned £3.2bn to shareholders. The replacement rests on three pillars: scale selectively and profitably, keeping UK Motor growing with discipline while improving margins in the newer lines; future-proof the competitive advantage through cost-effective operations, data and generative AI; and amplify the culture. The commercial engine underneath is multi-product cross-sell, with 1.6 million unique customers already holding two or more risks and MultiCar and MultiCover named as the growth drivers.

UK Household, Travel and Pet as the stated growth engine. These lines grew 21% to 3.8 million customers in FY2025 with turnover of £756m and profit before tax of £62.3m. The UK Insurance chief executive has set out the ambition explicitly: in markets totalling £11bn, Admiral holds top-five positions and believes it can reach top three with market-leading combined ratios. Household risks reached 2.21m and Travel and Pet risks grew 25% to 1.75m in H1 2026. Admiral puts its total addressable market across all lines at around £130bn.

International. France is the standout: L'olivier grew risks 15% to 0.56m and turnover 23% to £159.6m in H1 2026 at improving margins. Italy's ConTe has returned to profit but is still working through adverse claims on business written in early 2025 before rating actions embedded. Spain is growing risks to 0.48m while balancing direct business with a new push into the intermediary and broker channel. From 1 January 2026 the European businesses defer acquisition costs for new contract groups, better aligning expense and premium recognition as they scale.

Technology and AI. A generative AI centre of excellence was established in 2025 to move from experimentation to scale, and more than 150 initiatives are live, including real-time support for over 4,000 colleagues and the first implementations of agentic technology. H1 2026 deployments named by the chief executive include conversational chat, voice and WhatsApp agents and automated document processing. Call summarisation is live for more than a third of agents. A new AI policy was introduced in January 2026 with independent review of solutions for fairness and customer outcomes.

New products and emerging mobility. Flock, acquired for £76.4m cash with legal completion on 29 May 2026, brings telematics-led commercial fleet insurance. Admiral holds around 20% of the UK electric vehicle insurance market with its EV book up 27% year on year, runs a free subscription service to help with EV ownership costs and has partnered with Octopus on salary-sacrifice EV schemes. It is testing autonomous vehicle insurance through a partnership with Wayve, and expects autonomous vehicles to reach roughly 4% of the UK car parc by 2035. Admiral Pioneer narrowed its loss to £4.5m in H1 2026 from £9.7m.

8. Competitive Landscape

The UK personal lines market has consolidated sharply around Admiral since 2025. Aviva completed its acquisition of Direct Line in July 2025 and Ageas completed its acquisition of esure on 30 September 2025, alongside a twenty-year affinity deal with Saga. Market capitalisations were checked in September 2026 where possible; two are flagged as several weeks stale.

Peer	Key 2025/26 metric
Allianz SE (ETR: ALV)	Q2 2026 total business volume €45.6bn with internal growth of 5.7% and group operating profit up 10.6% on a record first half; FY2025 revenue €113.17bn and net income €10.60bn (Allianz H1 2026 release)
Aviva plc (LSE: AV)	H1 2026 general insurance premiums £8.09bn, up 29% following the £3.7bn Direct Line acquisition completed in July 2025; undiscounted combined operating ratio improved to 93.3% from 94.6%; operating profit £1.32bn, up 24% (Aviva H1 2026 release)
Ageas SA/NV (EBR: AGS)	FY2025 combined ratio 92.5% with net operating result above €1.655bn; Ageas UK now insures more than 4m customers following the £1.295bn esure acquisition completed 30 September 2025 (Ageas FY2025 release)
Sabre Insurance Group (LSE: SBRE)	H1 2026 gross written premium £160m, up 15.7%, with profit before tax of £23.9m and a solvency ratio of 161.4%; full-year profit guided above 2025 (Sabre H1 2026 release, 4 August 2026)
Hastings Group	H1 2026 gross written premium plus brokerage income of £1,300.9m, up 4%, with live customer policies up 13% to 4.8m and an operating ratio of 89.6% (Hastings Group H1 2026 release, 12 August 2026)

The read-through is that Admiral's twenty-point combined ratio advantage is now being defended against two newly scaled rivals rather than a fragmented field. Allianz was also reported in late August 2026 to be weighing a takeover of the AA, though that has not been confirmed by either company.

9. Insider Activity

Milena Mondini de Focatiis remains Group Chief Executive, confirmed by her being quoted in the H1 2026 results announcement of 6 August 2026 and named in a PDMR notice on 20 August 2026. Rachel Lewis succeeded Geraint Jones as Group Chief Financial Officer on 1 July 2026, having previously been CFO of UK Insurance and group chief actuary; the handover is independently visible in the filings below, where Jones drops off the March share-plan list and Lewis's title moves from EUI CFO to CFO Designate to CFO. Mike Rogers chairs the board.

Nine Director/PDMR Shareholding notices were filed in 2026 covering a dozen person-transactions. No director or PDMR sold a single share during the period. Most entries are trivially small awards under the HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan; the two economically meaningful items are the Chair's open-market purchase the day after the H1 results, and the chief executive's charitable donation, which is a transfer at nil consideration and not a disposal.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Mike Rogers (Chair)	07 Aug 2026	Buy	1,613	Open-market purchase under a Share Acquisition Agreement dated 14 June 2023
Milena Mondini de Focatiis (Group CEO)	20 Aug 2026	Award	47	Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan
Rachel Lewis (Group CFO)	20 Aug 2026	Award	47	Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan
Michael Brierley (Non-Executive Director)	11 Jun 2026	Buy	22	Dividend reinvestment plan dated 17 May 2020
Geraint Jones (then Group CFO)	05 Jun 2026	Buy	249	Share Incentive Plan dividend reinvestment
Milena Mondini de Focatiis (Group CEO)	24 Mar 2026	Charitable transfer — not a sale	12,500	Donation to NPT UK, registered charity 1181128, via a donor-advised fund
Costantino Moretti (CEO European Insurance)	13 Mar 2026	Vest	95	Vesting of a March 2023 award under the international equivalent of the Share Incentive Plan
Milena Mondini de Focatiis, Geraint Jones, Alistair Hargreaves, Keith Davies, Scott Cargill and Rachel Lewis	12 Mar 2026	Award	55 each	Admiral Group Approved Share Incentive Plan

One further detail visible only by comparing the March and August filings: Scott Cargill's title changed from CEO of Admiral Money to Deputy CEO of UK Insurance, with Emma Powell promoted to lead Admiral Money. That reshuffle was not the subject of a standalone announcement. Separately, the £45.0m buyback declared on 6 August 2026 had produced no Transaction in Own Shares notice as at 9 September 2026, so there is no public evidence it has begun.

10. Key Risks

• Motor premium softening: UK Motor turnover fell 7% in FY2025 and 5% again in H1 2026 on lower average premiums, with vehicles insured down 1% from year end. Management describes market prices as having plateaued around the end of 2025, and Admiral raised its own rates ahead of the market, protecting margin at the cost of volume. Group profit before tax fell 18% year on year as a result.
• Reserve releases and risk-adjustment run-down: the UK Motor core loss ratio before releases deteriorated 8.4 points in eighteen months, from 69.2% to 77.6%, while releases rose from 12.7% to 17.3% of premium and the risk-adjustment confidence level moved from the 95th to the 93rd percentile, with a stated intention to move towards the middle of an 85th to 95th percentile corridor over time. Profit released once cannot be released again.
• Claims inflation and bodily injury: Admiral's estimate for 2026 average claims cost inflation is 5% to 7%, unchanged from 2025, and it holds a prudent allowance for higher-than-historic wage inflation feeding large bodily injury reserves. A 100 basis point rise in long-term ASHE inflation costs five points of solvency.
• Concentration in UK Motor: UK Motor is 71% of turnover and effectively all of segment profit; a 5-point rise in the UK Motor incurred loss ratio costs twenty points of solvency. Everything else combined contributed roughly £95m of £958m of FY2025 profit.
• Disintermediation of price comparison: Admiral added principal-risk language in H1 2026 on AI-driven search and conversational tools emerging as rivals to comparison sites, and on agentic AI systems capable of managing end-to-end purchasing. For an insurer whose entire acquisition model is comparison-based, this is a structural rather than cyclical exposure.
• Conduct and regulatory: the FCA motor total-loss review led Admiral to remediate settlements from 2019 to 2024 at an incremental claims cost of roughly £50m excluding statutory interest, arising because internal processes did not respond swiftly enough to evolving external factors. That matter is complete, but six named FCA reviews touch the group and Consumer Duty outcomes monitoring remains a live supervisory priority.
• Thinning solvency headroom: post-dividend solvency has fallen from 203% at FY2024 to 193% at FY2025 to 190% at June 2026, and to 173% on a regulatory basis. Surplus over the capital requirement has been flat at roughly £0.88bn while the requirement itself grew from £0.86bn to £0.97bn, driven by loan-book and premium growth.
• Consumer credit risk at Admiral Money: provision coverage rose across every asset class at H1 2026, with unsecured personal loans at 8.7% from 7.1% and car finance at 1.9% from 1.2%, on anticipated higher unemployment and subdued GDP growth. The half-year credit loss charge rose 75% to £20.5m on a book that grew 39%.
• Ogden discount rate: the move from minus 0.25% to plus 0.5% delivered roughly £100m of benefit in FY2024 and £30m in FY2025. That tailwind is largely exhausted and would reverse if the rate is cut at a future review.

11. Recent Developments

• 07 Sep 2026 — Morgan Stanley double-upgrades Admiral to overweight.
• 20 Aug 2026 — Share Incentive Plan awards to five executives. Routine free-share awards of 47 shares each at £38.90 to the chief executive, chief financial officer, CEO UK Insurance, chief risk officer and deputy CEO UK Insurance. This is Admiral's most recent announcement of any kind.
• 10 Aug 2026 — Chair buys £63.9k of stock the day after results. Mike Rogers acquired 1,613 shares at £39.62 on 7 August, the largest cash purchase by any director or PDMR in 2026 and at the highest price paid by any of them this year.
• 06 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results and the first buyback under the new policy. Profit before tax of £429.2m was down 18% against a record comparator but flat against H2 2025. Turnover was flat at £3.11bn, UK Motor turnover fell 5% and UK other personal lines grew 11%. Customers passed 12 million at 12.03m. Return on equity was 45% and solvency 190%. Distributions totalled £258.8m: a 70.5p interim dividend plus a £45.0m buyback replacing the customary special. Admiral confirmed it submitted its internal capital model to prudential regulators in Q2 2026.
• 28 Jul 2026 — Citi upgrades to buy and opens a positive catalyst watch. Target raised to 4,243p from 3,277p, with 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates set 15% to 17% above consensus.
• 29 May 2026 — Admiral completes the acquisition of Flock. Legal completion of the telematics-led digital commercial fleet insurer, announced to the market on 1 June 2026. Total consideration was £76.4m in cash, of which £59.6m was goodwill and £20.0m recognised intangibles, reducing the H1 solvency ratio by roughly eight points.
• 05 Mar 2026 — FY2025 results, record profit and a new capital return policy. Continuing profit before tax of £957.9m was up 16%, customers grew 7% to 11.8m and the full-year dividend rose 7% to 205.0p. UK Motor passed £1bn of profit for the first time at £1,024.0m and UK Household set a record at £54.4m. From the 2026 interim, Admiral pays a normal dividend of 65% of post-tax profits and returns surplus capital by special dividend and/or buyback at board discretion.
• 12 Feb 2026 — Admiral agrees to acquire Flock. The agreement valued Flock's equity at £80m, with an estimated solvency impact of less than ten points. Admiral had invested in and partnered with Flock since 2024.
• 12 Jan 2026 — Chief financial officer transition announced. Geraint Jones to retire as Group CFO in summer 2026 after 24 years, moving to a part-time group role, with Rachel Lewis appointed Group CFO effective 1 July 2026. Lewis was promoted from within after roughly twenty years at Admiral, including as group chief actuary leading the IFRS 17 implementation.
• 05 Jan 2026 — Completion of the sale of the US motor business to J.C. Flowers. Elephant Insurance Company and Elephant Insurance Services were sold with effect from 31 December 2025, exiting the United States entirely. The price was not disclosed. Elephant was treated as a discontinued operation in FY2025, contributing a £3.1m loss before tax on turnover of £166.9m.

12. Key Dates and Catalysts

• 02 Oct 2026 — Payment date for the 2026 interim dividend of 70.5p per share. The ex-dividend date of 3 September 2026 and record date of 4 September 2026 have both passed.
• Expected Sep 2026 — Block Listing Interim Review, filed each early September and early March. Not yet filed as at 9 September 2026.
• Expected Mar 2027 — FY2026 full-year results. Not yet published on the financial calendar; the recent pattern is 7 March 2024, 6 March 2025 and 5 March 2026. Admiral does not issue quarterly trading statements, so this is the next scheduled earnings event.
• Expected Apr 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting in Cardiff. Not yet published; recent AGMs were held on 25 April 2024, 9 May 2025 and 29 April 2026.
• Expected Aug 2027 — H1 2027 results. Recent pattern is 15 August 2024, 14 August 2025 and 6 August 2026.
• TBC — Decision on Admiral's internal capital model, submitted to prudential regulators in Q2 2026. No timetable has been published. Approval would replace the current fixed £24m capital add-on that does not flex with risk profile, and is the most material unscheduled catalyst.
• TBC — Commencement of the £45.0m share buyback declared on 6 August 2026. No Transaction in Own Shares notice had been published as at 9 September 2026.

Track scheduled macro releases that move UK financials on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and discuss this research with other members in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 24 September 2026

Rio Tinto is one of the world's largest diversified miners. It digs, processes and sells iron ore, aluminium and its raw materials bauxite and alumina, copper and, since the March 2025 purchase of Arcadium Lithium, lithium. The group is a dual-listed company: Rio Tinto plc trades in London (RIO.L) with ADRs in New York, and Rio Tinto Limited trades in Sydney. Earnings rise and fall with commodity prices, above all the iron ore price. H1 2026 was strong: revenue rose 15% to $31.0bn, underlying EBITDA rose 28% and the interim dividend rose 43% to 211 US cents, paid today. Chief executive Simon Trott, in the job since August 2025, is pushing a $1.8bn productivity programme, bringing the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea into production and, according to a Bloomberg report today, expanding the group's metals trading arm. This refresh uses Rio Tinto's own results releases and SEC filings. It contains no analyst opinions and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Legal structure	Dual-listed companies: Rio Tinto plc (registered in England, 6 St James's Square, London) and Rio Tinto Limited (Melbourne), run as one economic group
Exchange / ticker	London Stock Exchange: RIO (RIO.L); NYSE ADR: RIO; ASX: RIO
Sector	Materials — diversified mining: iron ore, aluminium, copper and lithium
CEO / Leadership	Simon Trott, Chief Executive since 25 August 2025, when he succeeded Jakob Stausholm. CFO Peter Cunningham; Chair Dominic Barton
Employees	About 61,000 in 34 countries (2025 annual report / Form 20-F)
Revenue (FY2025)	$57.64bn consolidated sales revenue, up 7.4%. H1 2026: $31.03bn, up 15%
Net income (FY2025)	Net earnings attributable to owners $9.97bn; underlying earnings $10.87bn; basic EPS 613.7 US cents
Shares	1,255.2m plc voting shares and 371.8m publicly held Limited shares at 31 August 2026
Reporting currency / year end	US dollars; 31 December. Half-yearly results and quarterly operations reviews
Dividend policy	Pays 40–60% of underlying earnings over the cycle. FY2025 total 402 US cents per share; 2026 interim 211 US cents, a 50% payout

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Earnings momentum in 2026: H1 2026 underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8bn, net earnings rose 47% to $6.66bn and free cash flow rose 75% to $3.83bn. The interim dividend rose 43% to 211 US cents.
• Copper growth is arriving: copper revenue rose 48% to $13.7bn in FY2025 and 39% in H1 2026, helped by the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia, where H1 2026 copper output rose 31%. Copper unit-cost guidance was cut to 30–50 US cents per pound on 15 July 2026.
• Simandou is shipping: the Guinea iron ore project shipped 2.2Mt to China in H1 2026 and made its first customer sales. 2026 guidance is 5–10Mt, opening a second large iron ore source outside the Pilbara.
• Self-help on costs: $870m of productivity benefits had been banked by June 2026 against a target of a $1.8bn annualised run-rate by the end of 2026.
• Low-cost Pilbara base: 2026 Pilbara unit-cost guidance is $23.5–25.0 per wet metric tonne FOB on shipments of 323–338Mt. Iron Ore still produced $15.2bn of underlying EBITDA in FY2025 even though its revenue fell 8%.

Bear Case

• Iron ore dependence: iron ore was about 43% of H1 2026 product-group revenue and $15.2bn of FY2025 underlying EBITDA, so profits remain tied to Chinese steel demand and the iron ore price.
• Higher debt after Arcadium: non-current borrowings rose from $12.3bn at the end of 2024 to $21.2bn at the end of 2025 after the $6.7bn Arcadium Lithium purchase, and net debt was $14.1bn at 30 June 2026.
• Heavy capital spending: guidance is for up to $11bn of capital investment in both 2026 and 2027. Operating cash flow of $16.8bn in FY2025 left about $4.5bn after $12.3bn of capex.
• Jurisdiction and operating risk: Mongolia issued tax assessments of about $443m, which Rio paid under protest, and a protest blockade halted Oyu Tolgoi exports until 18 June 2026. A furnace breach at the Kennecott smelter in Utah in June will cut second-half refined copper output.

3. Revenue Segments

Since 2025 Rio Tinto has reported three product groups: Iron Ore, Aluminium & Lithium, and Copper. The table uses the H1 2026 product-group revenue from the interim report. Product-group revenue totals $32.6bn, slightly more than the $31.0bn of consolidated revenue, because product-group figures include Rio's share of equity-accounted operations.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Iron Ore — $14.03bn	43.0%	Pilbara mines, rail and ports in Western Australia, plus Iron Ore Company of Canada. Simandou in Guinea is reported outside the product group. Revenue up 4%
Aluminium — $9.40bn	28.8%	Bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting, including the Tomago and Boyne smelters and the Yarwun refinery in Australia. Revenue for Aluminium & Lithium together rose 24%
Copper — $8.62bn	26.4%	Kennecott (Utah) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) among other operations, plus development projects such as Resolution and Winu. Revenue up 39%
Lithium — $0.57bn	1.7%	Former Arcadium Lithium assets in Argentina, Canada and Australia, plus the Rincon project; reported within Aluminium & Lithium

In FY2025 product-group revenue was Iron Ore $29.0bn (down 8%), Aluminium $16.1bn (up 18%), Copper $13.7bn (up 48%) and Lithium $0.9bn. Copper delivered a record $7.4bn of underlying EBITDA, against $15.2bn from Iron Ore and $4.4bn from Aluminium.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Rio Tinto sells physical commodities at prevailing market prices, so revenue depends on volume times price. Costs are largely fixed in the short run: labour, energy, diesel, maintenance and depreciation. That gives high operating leverage to commodity prices. Profit margins widen sharply when prices rise and narrow when they fall.

What protects it. The core advantage is asset quality and position on the cost curve. The integrated Pilbara system of mines, rail and ports is guided to cost $23.5–25.0 per wet tonne in 2026. New entrants cannot quickly replicate assets like these because of the capital, permits and years of development involved. In copper, Oyu Tolgoi is guided to average about 500,000 tonnes a year on a 100% basis over 2028–2036, which makes it a long-life asset. Record bauxite production in 2025 supported the aluminium chain.

Capital allocation. The dividend policy pays out 40–60% of underlying earnings across the cycle, and the 2026 interim payout was 50%. Management guides to capital investment of up to $11bn a year in 2026 and 2027, falling below $10bn later. It is also targeting $5–10bn of cash proceeds from its asset base, including testing the market for the borates and titanium dioxide businesses.

Where the model is weakest. Rio cannot set prices, and several large growth projects sit in jurisdictions with political and permitting risk: Guinea, Mongolia, Argentina and Serbia, where the Jadar lithium project was put on care and maintenance in November 2025.

5. Financial Health

All figures come from Rio Tinto's annual and half-year results releases and its SEC 20-F and 6-K filings, and are in US dollars. EPS and dividends are in US cents. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings from the balance sheet.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	63,495	+42.3%	1,304.7c	1,321.0c†	1,040c (incl. 247c special)	$11,356m
FY2022	55,554	-12.5%	765.0c	824.7c†	492c	$10,148m
FY2023	54,041	-2.7%	620.3c	725.0c†	435c	$12,177m
FY2024	53,658	-0.7%	711.7c	669.5c†	402c	$12,262m
FY2025	57,638	+7.4%	613.7c	669.2c†	402c	$21,198m

† Adjusted EPS is Rio Tinto's underlying EPS, which excludes impairments, disposal gains, exchange differences on debt and other items the company treats as exceptional. GAAP EPS is basic IFRS EPS; FY2022 is as restated. The FY2021 YoY figure is against FY2020 revenue of $44,611m. Dividends are total ordinary plus special dividends declared for each year.

Rio Tinto reports results half-yearly. The table runs most recent period first, with the FY2025 total in bold.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$31,028m	421.4c	409.9c
H2 2025 (derived)‡	$30,765m	~373.2c	~334.9c
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$26,873m	296.0c	278.8c
FY2025 total	$57,638m	669.2c	613.7c

‡ Second-half figures are derived by subtracting the reported first half from the full year. Derived EPS is approximate because weighted share counts differ between periods.

Profitability. FY2025 IFRS operating profit was $14,936m (FY2024: $15,653m) and underlying EBITDA was $25,363m. In H1 2026 operating profit rose to $9,160m from $6,971m, underlying EBITDA was $14,826m and underlying return on capital employed was 17%.

Cash flow, FY2025. Net cash generated from operating activities was $16,832m. Purchases of property, plant, equipment and intangibles were $12,335m, so operating cash flow less capex was about $4,497m. Rio's own statutory free cash flow measure, which also deducts lease payments and other items, was $4,025m. Depreciation and amortisation was $6,577m.

Cash flow, H1 2026. Operating cash flow was $9,173m, up 32%, and purchases of property, plant, equipment and intangibles were $5,947m. Depreciation and amortisation was $3,613m. Free cash flow on Rio's revised definition was $3,834m, up 75%. From H1 2026 that definition deducts Rio's share of capital investment. Working capital absorbed $1.6bn, including a $443m Oyu Tolgoi tax payment made while reserving the right to dispute it.

Balance sheet. At 30 June 2026 current borrowings were $1,228m and non-current borrowings $20,186m, against cash and cash equivalents of $8,913m. Net debt was $14,061m (31 December 2025: $14,362m) and net gearing was 16%. At 31 December 2025 current borrowings were $733m, non-current borrowings $21,198m, cash $8,872m and current investments $547m. The jump in borrowings during 2025 followed the $6.7bn Arcadium Lithium acquisition, completed on 6 March 2025, and about $9bn of US bonds issued that month.

2026 guidance (reiterated 15 July 2026).

• Iron ore: Pilbara shipments of 323–338Mt on a 100% basis; Simandou 5–10Mt.
• Copper: 800–870kt.
• Aluminium and lithium: aluminium 3.25–3.45Mt; lithium carbonate equivalent 61–64kt.
• Unit costs: Pilbara $23.5–25.0 per wet tonne; copper C1 30–50 US cents per pound.
• Capital investment: up to $11bn.

Track the London-listed shares against these figures on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Short interest (% of float)	~0.80% for the NYSE ADR line (10.03m shares short at the 31 August 2026 settlement, MarketBeat, measured against the plc share base). The FCA register shows no disclosed net short position of 0.5% or more in the London shares

7. What Are They Building

Simandou, Guinea. The high-grade iron ore project is in its ramp-up phase. According to the 15 July 2026 operations review, the SimFer mine and port works were more than 75% complete, 2.2Mt had been shipped to China in H1 2026 and the first 0.4Mt of customer sales had been made. 2026 guidance is 5–10Mt.

Copper growth. Rio expects Oyu Tolgoi to average about 500,000 tonnes of copper a year on a 100% basis over 2028–2036 as the underground mine ramps up. Mongolia has agreed to start resolving the licence transfer for the Entrée Resources area that covers part of Panel 1. At Resolution Copper in Arizona the land exchange was completed in March 2026, although three lawsuits continue. At Winu in Western Australia, Rio signed a Project Agreement with the Nyangumarta Warrarn Aboriginal Corporation on 10 September 2026.

Lithium. First production came from Sal de Vida and Fenix 1B in Argentina in H1 2026, ahead of plan. The Rincon project has a $1.175bn lender financing package. Construction at Nemaska in Quebec, where Rio holds 53.9%, has been slowed, with first production now expected in 2028. 2026 lithium carbonate equivalent guidance is 61–64kt.

Aluminium power. On 13 August 2026 Rio announced an agreement securing the Tomago smelter in New South Wales (51.55% owned) to 2038. It includes a 10-year power purchase agreement from 2029 and A$1.1bn of investment, and follows a similar deal for the Boyne smelter in March 2026. Alumina output at Yarwun in Queensland is to fall by 40% from October 2026.

Marketing and trading. Bloomberg reported on 24 September 2026 that Rio plans to expand its marketing arm to trade other producers' metal and derivatives, part of Trott's push to make the business more agile.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Key 2025 metric
Rio Tinto (RIO.L / RIO)	FY2025 revenue $57.6bn; underlying EBITDA $25.4bn (company results, 19 Feb 2026)
BHP (BHP.L / BHP)	FY to June 2025 revenue $51.3bn; underlying EBITDA ~$26bn (BHP results release, Aug 2025)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)	2025 revenue $25.9bn (Freeport Q4 and full-year 2025 release)
Glencore (GLEN.L)	2025 adjusted EBITDA $13.5bn, down 6% (Glencore preliminary results 2025)
Vale (VALE)	2025 net revenue $38.4bn (Vale 2025 annual report release)
Anglo American (AAL.L)	2025 revenue $18.5bn; underlying EBITDA $6.4bn (Anglo American results, 20 Feb 2026). The merger with Teck had not completed at the time of writing
Fortescue (FMG.AX)	FY to June 2025 revenue $15.5bn; underlying EBITDA $7.9bn (FY25 results)

Rio and BHP are the two largest iron ore exporters from the Pilbara. Vale and Fortescue compete directly in seaborne iron ore, while Freeport, Glencore and Anglo American compete for copper growth. Glencore and Rio confirmed merger talks on 8 January 2026, and on 5 February 2026 Rio issued a formal statement that it did not intend to make an offer. The UK Takeover Code restriction attached to that statement lapsed in early August 2026, and no renewed approach has been announced.

9. Insider Activity

Chief Executive Simon Trott made no open-market purchases or sales in 2026. His dealings were limited to Equity Incentive Plan awards in March. The only open-market director purchases were small buys of Rio Tinto Limited shares on the ASX by Senior Independent Director Ben Wyatt. CFO Peter Cunningham's dealings are small share-plan transactions. Figures are from Rio Tinto's PDMR dealing announcements; values are derived from shares multiplied by price.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Ben Wyatt (Senior Independent Director)	17 Sep 2026	Buy (Limited shares)	200	Open market
Ben Wyatt (Senior Independent Director)	30 Jul 2026	Buy (Limited shares)	300	Open market
Peter Cunningham (CFO)	17 Jul 2026	Buy 6 / sell 4 (plc)	6 / 4	Share plan dealings
Peter Cunningham (CFO)	16 Apr 2026	Dividend reinvestment	160	Dividend reinvestment plan
Simon Trott (CEO)	19 Mar 2026	Award	10,484 bonus deferral + 146,011 performance shares	Equity Incentive Plan 2018; performance measured over 3 years, then a 2-year holding period
Peter Cunningham (CFO)	19 Mar 2026	Award	6,885 bonus deferral + 83,518 performance shares	Equity Incentive Plan 2018
Ben Wyatt (Senior Independent Director)	23 Feb 2026	Buy (Limited shares)	100	Open market

JPMorgan ceased to be a substantial holder in Rio Tinto Limited on 18 September 2026.

10. Key Risks

• Commodity prices (Market): Rio is a price-taker. Iron ore still generates most of its EBITDA, so a fall in Chinese steel output or a rise in seaborne supply from Simandou and other projects would hit earnings directly.
• Host-country and fiscal risk (Regulatory): Mongolia issued tax assessments of about $443m on Oyu Tolgoi in February 2026, which Rio paid under protest, and a protest blockade stopped exports until 18 June 2026. Guinea, Argentina and Serbia add permitting and political risk to growth projects.
• Project execution (Operational): Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi underground, Rincon and Nemaska are large, complex builds. Nemaska has already been slowed, and the Kennecott furnace breach in June 2026 needed a rebuild of about 75 days.
• Capital intensity and leverage (Financial): capital investment of up to $11bn a year in 2026 and 2027 and a larger debt load after Arcadium leave less room for the dividend if prices weaken. Net debt was $14.1bn at 30 June 2026.
• Energy and input costs (Operational): diesel at about $140 a barrel added roughly $0.8 a tonne to Pilbara costs in H1 2026, and smelters depend on long-term power contracts such as those just struck for Tomago and Boyne.
• Legal and social licence (Legal): three lawsuits continue against Resolution Copper, the Jadar lithium project in Serbia has been on care and maintenance since November 2025, and new and modernised agreements with Traditional Owner groups, such as those signed in September 2026, are a condition for developing projects in the Pilbara.

11. Recent Developments

• 24 Sep 2026 — Trading arm expansion reported. Bloomberg reported that Rio plans to expand its metals marketing business to trade other producers' metal and derivatives. The 211 US cent interim dividend was paid the same day.
• 18 Sep 2026 — JPMorgan no longer a substantial holder. JPMorgan's interest in Rio Tinto Limited fell below the 5% substantial-holding threshold.
• 17 Sep 2026 — Director purchase. Senior Independent Director Ben Wyatt bought 200 Rio Tinto Limited shares at A$165.88.
• 10 Sep 2026 — Winu Project Agreement. Rio signed a Project Agreement with the Nyangumarta Warrarn Aboriginal Corporation for the proposed Winu copper-gold mine in Western Australia, following an interim modernised agreement with the Ngarlawangga Aboriginal Corporation on 8 September.
• 13 Aug 2026 — Tomago smelter secured to 2038. Agreement including a 10-year power purchase agreement from 2029 and A$1.1bn of investment. The shares went ex-dividend the same day.
• 29 Jul 2026 — H1 2026 results. Revenue $31.0bn, up 15%; underlying EBITDA $14.8bn, up 28%; net earnings $6.66bn, up 47%; free cash flow $3.83bn, up 75%; interim dividend 211 US cents, up 43%. $870m of productivity benefits delivered towards a $1.8bn annualised target.
• 15 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 operations review. Copper-equivalent production up 3% in H1, with Oyu Tolgoi copper up 31%. Copper unit-cost guidance cut to 30–50 US cents per pound. A Kennecott furnace breach will reduce H2 refined copper, although total copper guidance is unchanged. First lithium from Sal de Vida and Fenix 1B.

For the macro data that moves commodity prices, including Chinese activity and US rates, see the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• Expected 13 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 operations review (production and shipments), per market calendars; Rio has not yet confirmed the date in a key-dates notice
• Expected Dec 2026 — possible investor seminar or capital markets update; Rio held a Capital Markets Day in December 2025. No 2026 date has been published
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 2026 operations review and 2027 production guidance. No date published
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 annual results and final dividend declaration. FY2025 results were published on 19 February 2026; no FY2026 date has been announced
• Expected Mar 2027 — ex-dividend date for the FY2026 final dividend. The FY2025 final went ex-dividend on 5 March 2026

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 September 2026

Antofagasta plc is a London-listed, Chilean copper producer controlled by the Luksic family. It runs four mines in northern Chile — Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and the 50%-owned Zaldivar joint venture — plus a railway and trucking business, FCAB, that hauls freight across the Atacama. The Group reports in US dollars. Full-year 2025 revenue was $8,620.3 million and EBITDA reached a record $5,201.9 million; the first half of 2026 then delivered revenue of $4,479.0 million and EBITDA of $2,840.5 million, even as copper output fell 9% and full-year production guidance was cut. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is spending money on, and what could change the picture. It contains no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Antofagasta plc
Ticker / exchange	ANTO, London Stock Exchange
Sector	Materials — copper mining, with a small rail and road transport division
Headquarters	London, United Kingdom; all mining operations in Chile
CEO / Leadership	Ivan Arriagada (Chief Executive Officer); Jean-Paul Luksic (Non-Executive Chairman); Mauricio Ortiz (Chief Financial Officer) — all confirmed in the H1 2026 results, 13 Aug 2026
Employees	8,457 direct employees at 31 Dec 2025 (5,902 male, 2,555 female); total workforce including contractors 38,072 (2025 Annual Report)
Revenue (FY2025)	$8,620.3m, up 30% on FY2024’s $6,613.4m
EBITDA (FY2025)	$5,201.9m, a record; EBITDA margin 60.3%
Net earnings attributable to owners (FY2025)	$1,328.9m including exceptional items ($1,274.4m excluding)
Copper production (FY2025)	653.7kt copper, 211.3koz gold, 15.8kt molybdenum
Net cash cost (FY2025)	$1.19/lb after by-product credits ($2.38/lb before)
Shares in issue	—
Reporting currency	US dollars
Dividend	FY2025 total 64.6c per share; H1 2026 interim 30.1c declared, payable 30 Sep 2026
Net debt	—

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Direct leverage to a tight copper market: the realised copper price rose from $4.93/lb across FY2025 to $6.19/lb in H1 2026, a 36% increase, and that alone lifted half-year revenue 18% and EBITDA 27% despite a 9% fall in production volumes.
• A funded growth pipeline that is already most of the way through its spending: the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator was described as on track and on budget at the H1 2026 results, targeted for completion in 2027, and management states that Centinela plus the Los Pelambres projects should raise Group copper production by roughly 30% over time.
• Industry-leading margin: the FY2025 EBITDA margin of 60.3% widened by nine percentage points, and H1 2026’s 63.4% margin puts the Group towards the top end of global pure-play copper producers on the company’s own comparison, helped by large gold and molybdenum by-product credits of $1,628.1m in FY2025.
• Optionality outside Chile: the US Senate voted 50 to 49 on 17 Apr 2026 to overturn the 20-year federal mining ban on Minnesota public lands, which reopens the roughly $2bn Twin Metals Birch Lake copper-nickel-cobalt project that had been stranded.

Bear Case

• Free cash flow is negative through the build: FY2025 net cash from operating activities of $3,071.6m was outspent by capital expenditure of $3,684.5m, and on a trailing twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026 operating cash flow of $3,511.2m against capex of $3,736.2m leaves free cash flow of about minus $225m.
• Chilean fiscal and permitting risk: the 2023 mining royalty law (a 1% ad valorem charge plus a margin-based component of 8% to 26%) remains in force, and the CEO has publicly flagged a cumulative tax load of up to 48% against roughly 41% in Australia and Peru.
• Water and climate exposure is now a realised, not theoretical, risk: the July 2026 Coquimbo weather emergency stopped Los Pelambres outright, and the Group is committing roughly $909m at Zaldivar and around $2bn at Los Pelambres purely to remove continental water from its supply chain by 2027 and 2028.
• Concentrated control and a large minority stake: the Luksic family interests hold the majority of the ordinary shares, and $4,330.9m of the $15,083.4m total equity at 30 Jun 2026 sits with non-controlling interests, so headline Group EBITDA overstates what is economically attributable to outside shareholders.

3. Revenue Segments

Antofagasta reports two divisions — Mining and Transport — and Zaldivar is equity-accounted rather than consolidated, so it contributes no Group revenue line. The table below breaks FY2025 Group revenue of $8,620.3m into its disclosed product categories.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Copper concentrate and cathode	79.1% ($6,818.7m)	The core product, sold from Los Pelambres, Centinela Concentrates, Centinela Cathodes and Antucoya. Revenue rose $1,413.4m in FY2025 on a realised price of $4.93/lb and higher volumes.
Gold (by-product)	9.1% ($788.4m)	Recovered from Centinela Concentrates and Los Pelambres. Sales volumes rose 19.4% to 211,400 ounces at a realised price of $3,734.9/oz.
Molybdenum (by-product)	8.1% ($697.6m)	Recovered at Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates. Volumes rose from 10,900t to 15,300t in FY2025.
Silver and other by-products	1.6% ($142.1m)	Minor by-product credits, up $63.9m year on year.
Transport division (FCAB)	2.0% ($173.5m)	The Antofagasta Railway and associated trucking, moving freight for mining customers in northern Chile and Bolivia. Revenue fell 11.0% in FY2025 on lower demand.

On an EBITDA rather than revenue basis, FY2025 contributions were Los Pelambres $2,548.0m, Centinela $2,234.2m, Antucoya $327.0m, Transport $69.7m and the attributable share of Zaldivar $61.8m.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Antofagasta mines copper ore, concentrates or leaches it, and sells copper concentrate and cathode into a global commodity market at prices it does not control. Roughly four-fifths of revenue is copper; the remainder is by-product metal recovered from the same ore body at low incremental cost, plus a small transport business. Because the by-products are effectively free tonnes, they are credited against mining costs: the FY2025 cash cost before by-products was $2.38/lb, but the net cash cost after by-product credits was $1.19/lb.

Unit economics. The gap between realised price and net cash cost is where the margin sits. In FY2025 that spread was $4.93/lb against $1.19/lb; in H1 2026 it widened to $6.19/lb against $1.22/lb even though the cost before by-products rose 23% to $2.85/lb, because gold and molybdenum credits absorbed the increase. This is why EBITDA rose 27% in a half-year when copper volumes fell 9%.

The moat, such as it is. Commodity producers have no pricing power, so the durable advantages are geological and positional: long-life, large-scale ore bodies in an established mining jurisdiction; existing concentrator, port, power and rail infrastructure that a new entrant would need a decade and billions of dollars to replicate; and a permitting and community track record in Chile. The Group also owns its own logistics through FCAB, and has been buying its way out of its single largest operating constraint by funding desalination and treated-wastewater supply rather than competing for scarce continental water.

Capital allocation. The dividend policy is a formula rather than a promise: 35% of underlying earnings at the interim stage, with the full-year payout set by the Board. FY2025 was declared at a 50% payout (64.6c per share) against 100% in 2021 and 2022, reflecting the switch of cash into the growth programme.

5. Financial Health

Five-year annual record. All figures are taken from Antofagasta’s own preliminary and annual results announcements. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at the year end; including current borrowings, total borrowings were $7,659.4m at 31 Dec 2025 and $8,126.2m at 30 Jun 2026.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$7,470.1m	+45.6%	130.9c	142.5c	142.5c	$2,835.5m
FY2022	$5,862.0m	−21.5%	155.5c	59.7c	59.7c	$2,844.5m
FY2023	$6,324.5m	+7.9%	84.7c	72.0c	36.0c	$3,177.3m
FY2024	$6,613.4m	+4.6%	84.1c	62.8c	31.4c	$4,622.9m
FY2025	$8,620.3m	+30.3%	134.8c	129.3c	64.6c	$7,158.2m

GAAP EPS is basic earnings per share including exceptional items. Adjusted EPS is the company’s own underlying earnings per share, which excludes exceptional items. The two diverge sharply in FY2022, when an exceptional item lifted reported EPS well above the underlying figure, and in FY2024, when a $371.4m exceptional credit did the same.

Half-year record. Antofagasta reports financial results half-yearly and production quarterly. Half-year figures below are as reported; the FY2025 row is the audited full year.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$4,479.0m	85.9c	85.9c
H2 2025 (derived)	$4,820.9m	81.9c	81.9c
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$3,799.4m	47.4c	52.9c
FY2025 total	$8,620.3m	129.3c	134.8c

H2 2025 is derived by subtracting the reported H1 2025 figures from the audited full year; Antofagasta does not publish a standalone second-half statement. H1 2026 had no exceptional items, so adjusted and GAAP earnings per share are identical.

Cash flow and the capex peak. FY2025 cash flows from operations were $4,252.9m, reducing to $3,071.6m of net cash from operating activities after $473.1m of interest and $708.2m of tax. Against that, capital expenditure was $3,684.5m and depreciation and amortisation was $1,695.4m. In H1 2026 net cash from operating activities rose 38% to $1,593.4m with capex of $1,672.1m. Full-year 2026 capex guidance is unchanged at $3.4bn excluding Zaldivar.

Balance sheet. At 30 Jun 2026 the Group held $2,445.4m of cash and cash equivalents plus $1,714.7m of liquid investments against total borrowings of $8,126.2m, for net debt of $3,966.1m and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.68 times. Total equity was $15,083.4m, of which $10,752.5m is attributable to owners of the parent and $4,330.9m to non-controlling interests.

6. Valuation and Market Data

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Net debt / EBITDA	0.68x at 30 Jun 2026 (0.53x at 31 Dec 2025)
Short interest (% of float)	UK-listed shares do not publish an aggregate short interest percentage. The only disclosed net short position located is Elliott Investment Management at 0.90% of issued share capital, last changed 22 Dec 2025 on the LSE.co.uk feed; Investegate’s tracker shows no active position, so the two sources conflict. Verify against the FCA daily short positions register at fca.org.uk.

7. What Are They Building

Centinela Second Concentrator. The largest item in the programme at $4.4bn, described at the H1 2026 results as on track and on budget with construction targeted for completion in 2027. Additional geotechnical works were required in the flotation-cell area, flagged as a schedule risk but contained within the overall timetable. At its peak in 2025 the project workforce numbered over 13,000 people. Combined with the Los Pelambres work, management expects the Group’s copper production to rise by roughly 30% over time.

Los Pelambres Future Growth Enabling Projects. Around $2bn covering a new concentrate pipeline and an expansion of the desalination plant from 400 to 800 litres per second, reported on schedule in H1 2026. The purpose is twofold: unlock throughput growth and cut continental water use from 2027.

Zaldivar water and life extension. The Board approved roughly $909m on 9 Jun 2026 for a new water pipeline and pumping system that will draw treated wastewater from the state utility ECONSSA, ending continental water use from mid-2028 and extending the mine’s life to 2051.

Centinela in-pit tailings. A project converting former open pits into thickened tailings deposits with water recirculation, scheduled to begin operating in 2026. It reduces both the tailings dam footprint and fresh water draw.

Twin Metals Minnesota. Dormant for years under a federal mining ban on Minnesota public lands. The US Senate voted 50 to 49 on 17 Apr 2026 to overturn that ban, which reopens the roughly $2bn Birch Lake underground copper-nickel-cobalt project near Ely. No development decision or capital commitment has been announced.

8. Competitive Landscape

Antofagasta is a mid-sized pure-play copper producer. Its closest comparators are other listed copper miners, though several of them are diversified and only partly comparable.

Peer	Key 2026 metric
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)	2026 copper sales guidance cut to about 3.1bn lb from 3.4bn lb after the delayed Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up following the September 2025 mud rush
Southern Copper (SCCO)	2026 production guidance raised to 917,000t of copper, still around 5% below 2025 on lower Cuajone ore grades
Teck Resources (TECK)	2026 copper guidance 455,000–530,000t, including 200,000–235,000t from Quebrada Blanca and 95,000–105,000t from Antamina
Glencore (GLEN.L)	2026 own-sourced copper guidance maintained at 810,000–870,000t despite completing the sale of the Kidd mine on 1 Jun 2026
Rio Tinto (RIO)	2026 copper guidance 800,000–870,000t with C1 unit cost guidance cut to 30–50c/lb; Oyu Tolgoi H1 2026 production up 31% year on year
Antofagasta (ANTO) for reference	2026 copper guidance cut to 625,000–655,000t on 13 Aug 2026; net cash cost guidance $1.15–$1.35/lb unchanged

The relevant point of difference is purity of exposure. Glencore and Rio Tinto generate most of their earnings elsewhere, so a copper price move affects Antofagasta’s earnings far more directly. Against Freeport and Southern Copper, Antofagasta is smaller by volume but reports a higher EBITDA margin, helped by its gold and molybdenum credits.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Ivan Arriagada has been Chief Executive Officer since 2016 and signed the H1 2026 results on 13 Aug 2026. Mauricio Ortiz is Chief Financial Officer and Jean-Paul Luksic has been Non-Executive Chairman since 2004. The board changed twice in 2026: Andronico Luksic Craig stepped down on 27 Jan 2026 and Andronico Luksic Lederer was appointed a Non-Executive Director with effect from 1 Mar 2026, with a further director change and committee reshuffle announced on 12 Aug 2026. Ignacio Bustamante joined as an independent Non-Executive Director in 2025.

All disclosed 2026 director dealings relate to the cash-settled long-term incentive plan, notified by RNS on 1 Apr 2026 for transactions dated 29 Mar 2026. There have been no open-market purchases or sales by directors disclosed between April and September 2026.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Plan Type
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	65,507	LTIP performance award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	28,074	LTIP restricted award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	17,049	2025 restricted award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	99,321	2023 performance award, 97.3% score
Mauricio Ortiz (CFO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	16,729	2023 performance award
Araneda (Chief Operating Officer)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	16,729	2023 performance award
All PDMRs combined	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	229,512	2023 performance awards
All PDMRs combined	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	159,509 performance and 68,358 restricted	LTIP 2026 grants

On ownership, the Luksic family interests control Antofagasta through Metalinvest Establishment and related entities. No TR-1 major-holdings notification was filed during 2026, the most recent being 22 Sep 2025, which indicates no disclosed change in the controlling stake this year. Because the exact current percentage has not been reconfirmed by a 2026-dated filing, readers should treat any specific figure as unverified for 2026 and check the company’s RNS history directly.

10. Key Risks

• Copper price (Macro): revenue and earnings are directly geared to a price the company cannot influence. LME three-month copper was near record levels of around $14,617 per tonne in early September 2026 on electrification and data-centre demand against constrained supply; the H1 2026 realised price of $6.19/lb is well above the FY2025 average of $4.93/lb, so a reversion would cut earnings sharply.
• Chilean tax, royalty and political change (Regulatory): the 2023 mining royalty law imposes a 1% ad valorem charge plus a margin-based component of 8% to 26%. Countervailing reforms are in train, including a Framework Law for Sectoral Authorizations enacted in September 2025 that cuts permitting timelines by 30% to 70%, and a planned corporate tax cut from 27% to 23%, but the fiscal direction is not settled.
• Water scarcity and extreme weather (Operational): already realised. A declared state of catastrophe in the Coquimbo Region in July 2026 forced a precautionary shutdown at Los Pelambres on 24 Jul 2026 and directly caused the FY2026 guidance cut. Roughly $2.9bn of committed spending across Zaldivar and Los Pelambres exists mainly to remove this dependency.
• Ore grade decline and volume delivery (Operational): FY2025 copper production fell 2% year on year with Los Pelambres down 8%, and H1 2026 output fell 9.5% to 285.0kt with sales down 17.3%. Grade and mix effects between Centinela Concentrates, Centinela Cathodes and Los Pelambres are a recurring drag.
• Capital project execution (Operational): the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator is the single largest commitment. Management reports it on track and on budget, but has disclosed that additional geotechnical works were needed in the flotation-cell area. A slip in the 2027 completion target would push out the expected 30% production uplift.
• Labour relations (Operational): the Los Pelambres union rejected an initial offer by 94% in October 2025 before supervisors settled in December; Centinela concluded a three-year deal in H1 2026 that contributed to higher costs, and Zaldivar settled in H2 2026. Strikes were averted each time, but the settlements have raised the cost base.
• Controlling shareholder and minority leakage (Financial): $4,330.9m of $15,083.4m of total equity at 30 Jun 2026 belongs to non-controlling interests in the operating subsidiaries, so Group-level EBITDA and cash flow overstate the share attributable to Antofagasta plc shareholders. The Luksic family also controls the majority of the voting shares.

11. Recent Developments

• 29 Jan 2026 — Q4 2025 production report. Confirmed FY2025 copper production of 653.7kt, gold of 211.3koz and molybdenum of 15.8kt.
• 17 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results: record EBITDA and a 48.0c final dividend. Revenue up 30% to $8,620.3m, EBITDA up 52% to $5,201.9m, EBITDA margin up nine percentage points to 60.3%, and underlying earnings more than doubled. Total FY2025 dividend 64.6c per share at a 50% payout.
• 17 Apr 2026 — US Senate votes to overturn the Minnesota mining ban. A 50 to 49 vote reopened the roughly $2bn Twin Metals Birch Lake copper-nickel-cobalt project.
• 15 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 production report. Copper 143.0kt, down 7.6%; sales 137.0kt, down 19.5%; net cash cost $1.08/lb, down 29.9%.
• 07 May 2026 — 2026 Annual General Meeting held at Church House Westminster, London.
• 09 Jun 2026 — Board approves $909m Zaldivar water investment. A new pipeline and pumping system drawing treated wastewater from ECONSSA, ending continental water use from mid-2028 and extending mine life to 2051.
• 15 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 production report. H1 copper 285.0kt, down 9.5%; gold 92.8koz, up 1.8%; net cash cost $1.22/lb.
• 24 Jul 2026 — Los Pelambres shut down as a precaution after a declared state of catastrophe from severe weather in the Coquimbo Region.
• 13 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results and a guidance cut. Revenue $4,479.0m, up 18%; EBITDA $2,840.5m, up 27%; EPS 85.9c, up 62%; interim dividend 30.1c.

Macro events that move the copper complex are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and reader discussion is on the ChartsView Forum.

12. Key Dates

• 04 Sep 2026 — record date for the 2026 interim dividend of 30.1c per ordinary share (passed)
• 30 Sep 2026 — 2026 interim dividend of 30.1c per share paid, amounting to $296.7m
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 production report; the equivalent 2025 report was released on 23 Oct 2025
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 production report, following the 29 Jan 2026 pattern
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 annual results; FY2025 results were announced on 17 Feb 2026
• Expected May 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting; the 2026 meeting was held on 7 May 2026
• Expected 2027 — targeted completion of the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator

Exact dates for 2027 events had not been published by the company as at 10 September 2026. Antofagasta typically confirms its financial calendar with the full-year results announcement.

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