SEGRO plc (SGRO.L) — Company Research
Last Updated: 11 August 2026
SEGRO plc is the largest listed European warehouse landlord by market value after Goodman and Prologis, owning urban and big box logistics estates across the UK and Continental Europe plus a fast-growing data centre business built on the power capacity of the Slough Trading Estate. In the year to 31 December 2025 it produced revenue of £726m, adjusted earnings per share of 36.6p and a portfolio valued at £18,962m. It is also, as of 3 August 2026, subject to a recommended takeover by Prologis, Inc. valuing it at approximately £14.0bn — a fact that now sits underneath every current number in this report. Everything below comes from company filings, RNS announcements and official data. There are no analyst opinions or price targets anywhere in it.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | SEGRO plc, a UK Real Estate Investment Trust since 1 January 2007 |
| Ticker / listing | SGRO, London Stock Exchange main market, with a secondary listing on Euronext Paris; FTSE 100 constituent |
| Sector | Real estate — urban and big box logistics warehouses, plus data centres |
| Headquarters | London, United Kingdom |
| Financial year end | 31 December |
| Share price | 944.6p (close, 10 August 2026) |
| Market cap | Approximately £12.78bn (944.6p on 1,353.0m shares) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | £726m, up 7.6% on FY2024. Gross rental income £637m; net rental income £543m |
| Adjusted profit before tax (FY2025) | £509m, up 8.3% |
| Adjusted EPS (FY2025) | 36.6p, up 6.1% |
| IFRS basic EPS (FY2025) | 40.7p (FY2024: 44.7p) |
| Dividend per share (FY2025) | 31.1p, up 6.1%, an 85% payout of adjusted profit after tax |
| EPRA net tangible assets per share | 902p at 30 June 2026 (925p at 31 December 2025) |
| Portfolio value | £18.7bn at SEGRO's share, £21.7bn of assets under management, at 30 June 2026 |
| Loan to value | 32% including share of joint ventures at 30 June 2026 |
| Employees | 454 on average during 2025 (2024: 461) |
| CEO / Leadership | David Sleath, Chief Executive; Susanne Schroeter, Chief Financial Officer; Andy Harrison, Chair |
| Corporate status | Subject to a recommended all-share offer with a partial cash alternative from Prologis, Inc., announced 3 August 2026, valuing SEGRO at approximately £14.0bn and expected to complete in the first half of 2027 |
Live price action for SEGRO and other FTSE 100 real estate names is on the ChartsView Live Charts page.
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- A recommended cash-and-share offer already on the table: Prologis's Rule 2.7 announcement on 3 August 2026 values each SEGRO share at 1,031.7p on the terms struck, a 39.0% premium to the 742p close on 23 June 2026 before the approach became public and a 14.0% premium to pro forma adjusted net asset value of 905p at 30 June 2026.
- The operating business is compounding regardless: adjusted EPS has risen every year from 28.0p in 2021 to 36.6p in 2025, and H1 2026 adjusted EPS grew a further 6.6% to 19.3p. Like-for-like net rental income grew 6.0% in FY2025.
- A record development pipeline that is mostly pre-let: current and near-term projects carry £90m of potential rent at a 7.4% blended yield with 75% already secured, and H1 2026 delivered £53m of new headline rent against £31m a year earlier.
- Data centres are a genuine second business, not a slide: 0.5GVA is already operational generating around £58m of headline rent, 7% of the rent roll, and the strategic power bank rose to over 3.0GVA in H1 2026. SEGRO identifies £464m of potential rent from 1.4GVA targeted over the next seven years.
- Embedded income growth is contractual, not speculative: £157m of embedded growth sat in the standing portfolio at 30 June 2026, comprising £101m of rent reversion and £56m from letting vacant space, before any new development completes.
Bear Case
- The share price is now a proxy for Prologis stock: the basic entitlement is 258p in cash plus 0.0690 new Prologis shares, so roughly three quarters of the consideration floats with the Prologis share price and the dollar. At 944.6p the shares already trade close to the paper value of the offer, leaving the remaining return dependent on Prologis, not on SEGRO.
- Property values fell in the first half of 2026: the portfolio declined 1.2% overall and 2.0% in the UK, EPRA net tangible assets fell 2.5% to 902p and IFRS earnings swung to a loss of 0.4p per share. The change of UK valuer to Cushman & Wakefield brought more conservative yields with it.
- The deal can still fail or slip: completion is not expected until the first half of 2027 and remains conditional on shareholder approval, court sanction, regulatory clearances and approval of Prologis's application for a secondary London listing. If it lapses, the share price loses the takeover premium.
- Leverage is rising into a higher-rate refinancing cycle: gross borrowings including the share of joint ventures reached £6,251m at 30 June 2026 and the weighted average cost of debt rose from 2.6% to 2.8%. New issuance is pricing near 4%, well above the legacy book.
- Occupancy is drifting and part of the pipeline is speculative: occupancy fell to 94.5% at 30 June 2026 from 94.9% at the year end, at the bottom of the 94–96% target range, and 25% of the current development pipeline is unlet with £322m of capex still to spend.
3. Business Segments
SEGRO reports under IFRS 8 in just two property segments, the United Kingdom and Continental Europe, plus an unallocated corporate category. Figures below are H1 2026, for the six months to 30 June 2026.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 64.9% (£240m of external revenue) | Urban warehouses concentrated in Greater London and the Thames Valley, big box logistics parks at Coventry, Northampton and Radlett, and the data centre cluster on the Slough Trading Estate. Gross rental income £234m, net rental income £214m, adjusted profit before interest and tax £214m. Directly owned property £11,436m. Contracted headline rent of £482m splits into £299m urban, £102m big box, £58m data centres and £23m other. |
| Continental Europe | 35.1% (£130m of external revenue) | Warehouses in Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Spain and the Czech Republic, roughly half of it held through the SELP joint venture with PSP Investments. Gross rental income £92m, net rental income £73m, adjusted profit before interest and tax £144m including joint venture income. Directly owned property £4,299m plus £2,752m of joint venture investments. Contracted headline rent £347m. |
| Other and unallocated | Nil material external revenue | Corporate centre, SELP holding companies and unallocated costs. Net rental income of negative £7m and an adjusted loss before interest and tax of £53m in H1 2026. |
By value at 30 June 2026 the portfolio was 62% UK, 12% Germany, 11% France, 6% Italy, 4% Poland, 2% Netherlands, 2% Spain and 1% Czech Republic. By asset type, big box warehouses were 35% of value, data centres 8% and other uses of industrial land 2%, with urban warehouses making up the balance.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. SEGRO buys and develops industrial land, builds warehouses on it and lets them on long leases with contractual uplifts. Rent is the recurring revenue line: £637m of gross rental income in FY2025 producing £543m of net rental income after property costs. On top of that it earns management and performance fees for running the SELP joint venture on behalf of PSP Investments, £25m in FY2025. Because it is a UK REIT it pays almost no corporation tax on UK rental profits, which is why the effective tax rate on adjusted profit was just 2.8% in FY2025, and in exchange it must distribute at least 90% of UK-sourced tax-exempt rental profit as a Property Income Distribution.
Where the moat comes from. The asset is really the land and its permissions, not the shed. SEGRO's urban estates sit inside the M25 and around major European cities where new industrial consent is close to unobtainable, which is why UK urban warehouses alone generate £299m of headline rent. The Slough Trading Estate is a rarer asset still: Europe's largest data centre cluster, holding Simplified Planning Zone status with planning pre-approved for industrial and data centre use until the end of 2034, and carrying over 3.0GVA of secured grid power. Power capacity of that scale cannot be replicated quickly at any price, which is what turned an industrial estate into a data centre platform.
How the growth is funded. Development is paid for out of operating cash flow, disposals and debt rather than continual equity issuance — there was no equity raise in 2025 or 2026, the last being £889m in 2024. The 544-hectare land bank, valued at £1.1bn and about 6% of portfolio value, is the pipeline: it can support 2.2m sq m over five to seven years for around £2.3bn of capex, generating £248m of gross rental income at a 7–8% development yield. Capital is increasingly deployed through joint ventures — two 50:50 data centre vehicles with Pure DC and a proposed 50:50 UK big box partnership seeded with around £1bn of assets — which lets SEGRO keep the fee income and a half share of the upside while halving the balance sheet commitment.
5. Financial Health
All figures below come from SEGRO's published results announcements and Annual Report and Accounts. Revenue is the "Revenue" line at the top of the Group Income Statement, which comprises gross rental income plus joint venture fee income, management and development fees, service charge and other income and proceeds from the sale of trading properties.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (£m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (to 31 Dec 2021) | £546m | n/a † | 339.0p | 28.0p | 24.3p | £3,406m |
| FY2022 (to 31 Dec 2022) | £669m | +22.5% | (159.7)p | 31.0p | 26.3p | £4,884m |
| FY2023 (to 31 Dec 2023) | £749m | +12.0% | (20.7)p | 32.7p | 27.8p | £5,347m |
| FY2024 (to 31 Dec 2024) | £675m | −9.9% | 44.7p | 34.5p | 29.3p | £4,607m |
| FY2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | £726m | +7.6% | 40.7p | 36.6p | 31.1p | £4,386m |
† No year-on-year figure is shown for FY2021 because the FY2020 comparative is outside the five-year window presented and was prepared on a different revenue composition. The swing in GAAP EPS from 339.0p in 2021 to a loss of 159.7p in 2022 is almost entirely property revaluation running through the income statement as interest rates rose, not a change in rental performance — adjusted EPS rose in every one of those years. The 2023 revenue figure includes an £89m SELP performance fee that did not repeat. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at the Group level; total borrowings were higher in FY2025 at £4,951m because £565m sat in current borrowings. Group net debt was £4,840m at 31 December 2025, or £5,919m including SEGRO's share of joint ventures.
SEGRO reports half-yearly. The table below shows the reported halves with the derived second half marked.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 (Jan – Jun 2026) | £370m | 19.3p | (0.4)p |
| H2 2025 (Jul – Dec 2025) ‡ | £375m | 18.5p | 22.4p |
| H1 2025 (Jan – Jun 2025) | £351m | 18.1p | 18.3p |
| FY2025 full year | £726m | 36.6p | 40.7p |
‡ Second-half figures are derived by subtracting the reported first half from the reported full year; SEGRO does not publish them as a separate period. The H1 2026 IFRS loss per share of 0.4p is the result of a £270m valuation deficit in the half, against an adjusted profit after tax of £261m.
Balance sheet at 30 June 2026: cash and cash equivalents of £176m, no current borrowings, non-current borrowings of £5,023m and Group net debt of £4,847m. Including SEGRO's share of joint ventures, gross borrowings were £6,251m, cash £332m and net borrowings £5,919m. Loan to value was 32% on a look-through basis, gearing 40%, interest cover 4.0 times, weighted average cost of debt 2.8% and average debt maturity 6.3 years, with £1,538m of available cash and undrawn committed facilities. Fitch rates SEGRO BBB+ at the issuer level and A- on senior unsecured debt. In FY2025 net cash from operating activities was £396m, against £444m spent purchasing and developing investment properties and £29m on plant, equipment and intangibles; depreciation and amortisation was just £17m, as expected for a REIT.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | Approximately £12.78bn (944.6p on 1,353.0m shares, close of 10 August 2026). SEGRO disclosed 1,354,090,872 shares in issue on 31 July 2026 with none in treasury. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | 23.2x (944.6p / FY2025 IFRS basic EPS of 40.7p). On the twelve months to 30 June 2026, IFRS EPS falls to approximately 22.0p because of the H1 2026 valuation deficit, which lifts the multiple to roughly 43x. On FY2025 Adjusted EPS of 36.6p the multiple is 25.8x. |
| P/E (forward) | 24.5x on annualised H1 2026 Adjusted EPS (19.3p doubled to 38.6p). SEGRO publishes no full-year EPS forecast; against its stated aim of progressing Adjusted EPS to about 50.0p by 2030, today's price is 18.9x. |
| P/S (TTM) | 17.15x (market cap £12.78bn / trailing twelve month revenue of £745m, being FY2025 £726m less H1 2025 £351m plus H1 2026 £370m) |
| Enterprise value | Approximately £17.6bn on a Group basis (market cap £12.78bn + total borrowings £5,023m − cash £176m per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Including SEGRO's share of joint venture debt, net borrowings were £5,919m, giving a look-through enterprise value of approximately £18.7bn. |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 29.7x on the Group basis (EV £17.6bn / EBITDA £594m; EBITDA = FY2025 adjusted profit before interest and tax of £577m + depreciation and amortisation of £17m from the FY2025 cash flow statement). On the look-through enterprise value of £18.7bn the multiple is 31.5x. SEGRO's own reported net debt to EBITDA was 8.4x at 31 December 2025 and 8.3x at 30 June 2026. |
| P/FCF | Approximately 35x (market cap £12.78bn / free cash flow £367m; FCF = FY2025 net cash from operating activities of £396m less £29m spent on plant, equipment and intangibles). Deducting the £444m spent purchasing and developing investment properties, which is growth rather than maintenance capital, free cash flow is negative £77m and the multiple is not meaningful. |
| Price / EPRA NTA | 1.05x (944.6p / EPRA net tangible assets of 902p per share at 30 June 2026) |
| Implied offer value | Approximately 944.7p per share on the all-share entitlement of 0.0920 Prologis shares at the 10 August 2026 Prologis close of $138.76 and GBP/USD of 1.3514. Taking the basic entitlement of 258p cash plus 0.0690 Prologis shares gives approximately 966.5p. The terms were struck at 1,031.7p per SEGRO share. |
| Dividend yield | 3.29% (FY2025 dividend of 31.1p / 944.6p). Permitted dividends under the offer are up to 10.14p for the 2026 interim, 22.56p for the 2026 final, 10.55p for the 2027 interim and 23.52p for the 2027 final. |
| 52-week high | 997.4p on 28 July 2026 |
| 52-week low | 604.4p on a closing basis on 2 September 2025 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 0.30% — the FCA aggregated net short position in SEGRO plc, position date 5 August 2026, down from 0.43% on 28 July 2026 and 0.50% on 23 June 2026. Under the UK Short Selling Regulation applying from 13 July 2026 the FCA publishes only an anonymised aggregate of individual positions at or above 0.2%, so no holder names are available. |
| Days to cover | Not published — the UK regime discloses an aggregated net short percentage only, with no share-lending or average-volume data, so a days-to-cover figure cannot be derived. Verify at the FCA short positions data page. |
7. What Are They Building
At 30 June 2026 the current development pipeline stood at 764,900 sq m approved, contracted or under construction, requiring £322m of capex to complete and carrying £65m of annualised gross rental income when fully let at an expected 7.5% development yield, with 65% of that rent already secured. Adding the near-term pipeline of 174,400 sq m, around £193m of future capex and around £25m of potential rent, gives a combined £90m of potential rent at a 7.4% blended yield with 75% pre-let — which SEGRO describes as a record. Development capex guidance for 2026 was narrowed to £500–550m including around £150m of infrastructure, of which £213m was deployed in the first half.
The land bank is the longer pipeline: 544 hectares valued at £1.1bn, capable of supporting 2.2m sq m over five to seven years for around £2.3bn of capex and £248m of gross rental income at a 7–8% development yield. Options over a further 1.3m sq m, expected to be exercised within two to three years and carried at £21m, cover another £128m of headline rent.
Data centres are the fastest-moving part. Operational capacity of 0.5GVA generates around £58m of headline rent, 7% of the rent roll, and the UK data centre assets alone are valued at £1,271m across 219,108 sq m at 100% occupancy. The strategic power bank grew by 0.5GVA in H1 2026 to over 3.0GVA. SEGRO has identified 1.4GVA of near-to-mid-term opportunity across roughly twelve sites, around 680MW of IT load, worth around £464m of potential rental income and expected to be income-producing within ten years, with a further 1.1GVA of reserved power beyond that. Around 0.3GVA of the 1.4GVA is expected to be sold as powered land, with the majority delivered as fully fitted facilities alongside powered shells. Concrete steps in 2026 included a 30,000 sq m powered shell pre-let at Slough with 50MVA of power in March, planning approval for a 56MW fully fitted facility at SEGRO Premier Park in Park Royal through the 50:50 joint venture with Pure Data Centres Group, a second multi-storey powered shell pre-let at Slough, and in July a second 50:50 Pure DC joint venture for a 48MW fully fitted data centre in Paris involving around £0.8bn of gross capital investment but only around £60m of SEGRO cash equity.
Alongside this, on 1 July 2026 SEGRO agreed heads of terms for a 50:50 development-led joint venture over its three largest UK logistics parks at Coventry, Northampton and Radlett, seeded with 225,000 sq m of existing assets producing £25m of annual income plus 380 acres of development land for approximately £1bn, in line with 31 December 2025 book value. Fully built out those parks would deliver 0.9m sq m and around £135m of total potential headline rent.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc. (NYSE: PLD) | Approximately $131.9bn (£97.6bn at GBP/USD 1.3514) | Q2 2026 core funds from operations of $1.63 per diluted share against $1.46 a year earlier; 2026 core FFO guidance raised to $6.22–$6.30 per share. It is also SEGRO's bidder. |
| Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) | Approximately A$61.6bn (£32.1bn at GBP/AUD 1.9165) | FY26 guidance of at least 9% operating EPS growth and over A$2.6bn of operating profit; development work in progress of A$14.5bn at 31 March 2026, with data centres 73% of that pipeline |
| SEGRO plc (LSE: SGRO) | Approximately £12.78bn | FY2025 adjusted EPS of 36.6p, adjusted profit before tax £509m, portfolio £18,962m, loan to value 31%, dividend 31.1p |
| Land Securities Group plc (LSE: LAND) | Approximately £5.29bn | Year to 31 March 2026 EPRA EPS of 51.4p, up 2.2%, with EPRA net tangible assets of 882p, up 0.9% |
| LondonMetric Property plc (LSE: LMP) | Approximately £4.53bn | Year to 31 March 2026 EPRA earnings of £305.3m, up 13.9%, equal to 13.5p per share; dividend 12.45p, 108% covered; portfolio £7.6bn; loan to value 36.7% |
| British Land Company plc (LSE: BLND) | Approximately £4.50bn | Year to 31 March 2026 underlying profit of £294m, up 5%, underlying EPS 28.9p; EPRA net tangible assets 590p, up from 567p |
| Tritax Big Box REIT plc (LSE: BBOX) | Approximately £4.44bn | H1 2026 net rental income of £173.3m, up 16.2%; adjusted EPS excluding development management activity 4.41p, up 7.0%; portfolio £7.68bn; secured data centre power nearly doubled to 507MW |
| VGP NV (Euronext Brussels: VGP) | Approximately €2.43bn (£2.08bn at GBP/EUR 1.1703) | FY2025 proportionally consolidated net rental income of €224.4m, up 16.7%, with EPRA net tangible assets up 9% and committed annualised rental income of €486.4m by April 2026 |
The competitive picture has changed shape in 2026. SEGRO's nearest UK listed comparators, Tritax Big Box and LondonMetric, are each roughly a third of its size, and both are chasing the same data centre power story — Tritax nearly doubled its secured power to 507MW in the first half. Prologis and Goodman are the only genuinely larger logistics landlords globally, which is part of why a combination with Prologis would lift Prologis's European operating portfolio by 47% and its European land bank by 126%. Market caps above were re-checked live on 11 August 2026 and converted at spot rates the same day.
9. Insider Activity
David Sleath is Chief Executive and Susanne Schroeter is Chief Financial Officer. Almost all 2026 director dealing has been scheme-driven — annual incentive grants, vestings and the tax sales that settle them — with one genuine open-market purchase. No dealings have been announced since 2 June 2026 because the offer period, which began on 24 June 2026, restricts them. Transactions below come from SEGRO's Director/PDMR Shareholding RNS announcements.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Sperber (Non-Executive Director) | 27 Mar 2026 | Purchase | 3,897 | 641.4p | Approximately £24,996 | Open-market purchase, taking his holding to 11,137 shares |
| David Sleath (Chief Executive) | 25 Feb 2026 | Award | 304,181 | 810.8p | Approximately £2,466,300 | 2018 Long Term Incentive Plan, 2026 grant, three-year period to 31 Dec 2028 |
| Susanne Schroeter (Chief Financial Officer) | 25 Feb 2026 | Award | 169,585 | 810.8p | Approximately £1,374,995 | 2018 Long Term Incentive Plan, 2026 grant, three-year period to 31 Dec 2028 |
| David Sleath (Chief Executive) | 30 Mar 2026 | Sale | 56,821 | 639.0p | Approximately £363,086 | Tax settlement on release of 2021 LTIP shares after the two-year holding period |
| David Sleath (Chief Executive) | 28 Apr 2026 | Award | 85,994 | 705.4p | Approximately £606,602 | Deferred Share Bonus Plan, 2025 award |
| David Sleath (Chief Executive) | 28 Apr 2026 | Sale | 30,887 | 697.0p | Approximately £215,282 | Tax settlement on vesting of the 2022 Deferred Share Bonus Plan award |
| David Sleath (Chief Executive) | 01 Jun 2026 | Exercise | 3,099 | 580.8p | £17,999 | Savings-Related Share Option Plan 2021, 2023 offer |
The only discretionary purchase with a director's own money in 2026 was Marcus Sperber's £24,996 buy at 641.4p in March, roughly 32% below where the shares trade today. The two sales by David Sleath were both net-settlement of income tax on shares that had just vested, not a reduction in economic exposure — he still held over 1.1m shares after each. Susanne Schroeter also received 3,664 Deferred Share Bonus Plan shares in April 2026 and, alongside David Sleath, a 3,035-share Sharesave option grant at 599.52p in April 2026.
10. Key Risks
- Deal completion risk: the Prologis scheme of arrangement is conditional on SEGRO shareholder approval, court sanction, regulatory clearances and approval of Prologis's application for a secondary London listing, and is not expected to complete until the first half of 2027. If any condition fails the offer lapses and the takeover premium in the share price goes with it.
- Consideration is mostly Prologis paper: the basic entitlement is 258p cash plus 0.0690 new Prologis shares, and the partial cash alternative is capped at around £3.5bn with pro-rata scale-back. Holders therefore carry Prologis share price risk and sterling/dollar risk between now and completion, over a window of roughly nine months.
- Property valuation risk: the portfolio fell 1.2% in H1 2026, with the UK down 2.0% and EPRA net tangible assets down 2.5% to 902p, driven largely by more conservative yields from the newly mandated UK valuer. Yields are set by capital markets, not by SEGRO, and a further outward shift would reduce net asset value and raise loan to value.
- Refinancing into higher rates: gross borrowings including the share of joint ventures were £6,251m at 30 June 2026 and the weighted average cost of debt has already risen from 2.6% to 2.8%. SELP's recent issuance priced at 3.875% and 4.0%, well above the legacy book, so each maturity refinanced is a drag on adjusted earnings.
- Data centre delivery and concentration risk: the £464m of potential data centre rent depends on grid power arriving on schedule, planning holding, and hyperscaler demand persisting. The Paris joint venture alone carries around £0.8bn of gross capital investment and is targeting a long-term lease with a global hyperscaler that is not yet signed.
- Occupancy and speculative development risk: occupancy of 94.5% at 30 June 2026 sits at the bottom of the 94–96% target range and below the 94.9% at the year end. A quarter of the current development pipeline is unlet with £322m of capex still to spend, so weaker take-up would leave completed but empty space.
- REIT status risk: SEGRO's very low 2.8% effective tax rate on adjusted profit depends on continuing to satisfy UK REIT conditions, including distributing at least 90% of UK-sourced tax-exempt rental profit. Loss of REIT status, or adverse change to the regime, would materially raise the tax charge.
11. Recent Developments
- 04 Aug 2026 — Prologis announces a recommended acquisition of SEGRO. The Rule 2.7 firm offer values SEGRO at approximately $18.8bn, or £14.0bn, on terms of 0.0920 new Prologis shares per SEGRO share plus a partial cash alternative of up to around £3.5bn at a fixed 1,031.7p. To be implemented by scheme of arrangement, with SEGRO directors intending to recommend unanimously and completion expected in the first half of 2027.
- 30 Jul 2026 — H1 2026 results. Revenue of £370m, adjusted EPS up 6.6% to 19.3p, but an IFRS loss per share of 0.4p after a valuation deficit. EPRA net tangible assets fell 2.5% to 902p and the interim dividend was set at 10.14p, trimmed from the 10.4p it would otherwise have been to match the permitted dividend cap in the Prologis proposal.
- 22 Jul 2026 — Prologis tables a best and final proposal. The fourth proposal added the partial cash alternative at a fixed 1,031.7p and the SEGRO board said it would be minded to recommend. The Takeover Panel extended the put-up-or-shut-up deadline to 12 August 2026.
- 15 Jul 2026 — Three new customers at SEGRO Park Coventry. Around 540,000 sq ft let across pre-lets to Volvo Group UK and DIRKS Consumer Logistics plus a lease of a speculatively developed warehouse to GigaCloud Technology.
- 08 Jul 2026 — H1 trading update and a second data centre joint venture. SEGRO reported £53m of new headline rent including £24m of pre-lets, narrowed 2026 development capex guidance to £500–550m and confirmed £308m of disposals completed or exchanged. It also announced a second 50:50 joint venture with Pure DC for a 48MW fully fitted data centre in Paris.
- 01 Jul 2026 — UK big box joint venture heads of terms. A proposed 50:50 development-led partnership over Coventry, Northampton and Radlett, seeded with roughly £1bn of assets and land at 31 December 2025 book value.
- 24 Jun 2026 — SEGRO rejects Prologis's first approach. The board disclosed an unsolicited proposal received on 16 June 2026 worth 925p per share and rejected it unanimously as opportunistically timed. The offer period began that day.
- 23 Jun 2026 — SELP prices €650m of 4.000% bonds due 2033. Proceeds were used to repurchase €539m of 3.75% bonds due 2027, following a €500m 3.875% issue in April 2026.
- 16 Mar 2026 — Slough powered shell pre-let and Park Royal approval. A 30,000 sq m powered shell pre-let over three floors with 50MVA of power was signed with an existing customer, and planning committee approval was received for the first fully fitted data centre at SEGRO Premier Park with 70MVA of incoming power.
- 20 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results. Revenue £726m, adjusted EPS 36.6p, dividend 31.1p, EPRA net tangible assets 925p and a record £99m of new headline rent secured, with the portfolio valued at £18,962m and loan to value at 31%.
12. Key Dates
- 06 Aug 2026 — ex-dividend date for the 2026 interim dividend of 10.14p; record date 7 August 2026
- 12 Aug 2026 — extended Rule 2.6 put-up-or-shut-up deadline for Prologis, now superseded by the firm offer announced on 3 August 2026
- 17 Sep 2026 — 2026 interim dividend of 10.14p paid, as an ordinary rather than Property Income Distribution dividend, with no scrip alternative
- Expected Aug 2026 — posting of the Scheme Document, due within 28 days of the 3 August Rule 2.7 announcement unless the Takeover Panel agrees otherwise
- TBC — Court Meeting and General Meeting at which SEGRO shareholders vote on the scheme; dates to be set in the Scheme Document
- TBC — FY2026 full-year results. SEGRO has not published a date and its investor calendar is currently empty; the FY2025 results were released on 20 February 2026.
- Expected Mar 2027 — SEGRO's 2027 annual meeting to consider a 2026 final dividend of up to 22.56p; Prologis has said the scheme court hearing will not be convened until after it
- Expected H1 2027 — completion of the Prologis acquisition, subject to shareholder approval, court sanction, regulatory clearances and approval of Prologis's secondary London listing
While the offer period runs, SEGRO's RNS feed is dominated by Form 8.3 and Form 8.5 opening position and dealing disclosures from Prologis, Invesco, Vanguard, FIL, Northern Trust, Dimensional and others, as the Takeover Code requires. Scheduled macro events that move UK real estate valuations, including Bank of England rate decisions, are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and readers discuss FTSE 100 property names in the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. SEGRO plc is a UK REIT that develops and lets urban and big box logistics warehouses across the UK and Continental Europe and, increasingly, data centres built on the grid power it controls at the Slough Trading Estate. Rent is the engine: £637m of gross rental income in the year to 31 December 2025 produced £543m of net rental income, revenue of £726m, adjusted profit before tax of £509m and adjusted EPS of 36.6p, with the dividend up 6.1% to 31.1p and the portfolio valued at £18,962m. H1 2026 continued that operating trend, with adjusted EPS up 6.6% to 19.3p, even as an IFRS loss of 0.4p per share emerged from a valuation deficit and EPRA net tangible assets fell 2.5% to 902p. The dominant near-term catalyst is corporate rather than operational: on 3 August 2026 Prologis, Inc. announced a recommended acquisition valuing SEGRO at approximately £14.0bn, on terms of 0.0920 Prologis shares per SEGRO share plus a partial cash alternative of up to around £3.5bn at a fixed 1,031.7p.
What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed by the scheme of arrangement progressing on schedule — the Scheme Document being posted, shareholders and the court approving it, regulatory clearances and Prologis's secondary London listing coming through — and, underneath that, by the £90m of pre-let development rent and the 1.4GVA data centre opportunity converting into signed leases. It is invalidated if the deal lapses on any of those conditions, which would remove the takeover premium from a share price that already sits close to the paper value of the offer; by further weakness in property values after the 1.2% H1 2026 decline and the more conservative yields applied by the new UK valuer; or by the refinancing drag continuing to build as £6,251m of look-through borrowings roll from a 2.8% weighted average cost onto new issuance priced near 4%.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "A recommended cash-and-share offer already on the table:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Deal completion risk:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 11 Aug 2026.
