Antofagasta (ANTO.L) — Company Research

Last Updated: 10 September 2026

Antofagasta plc is a London-listed, Chilean copper producer controlled by the Luksic family. It runs four mines in northern Chile — Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and the 50%-owned Zaldivar joint venture — plus a railway and trucking business, FCAB, that hauls freight across the Atacama. The Group reports in US dollars. Full-year 2025 revenue was $8,620.3 million and EBITDA reached a record $5,201.9 million; the first half of 2026 then delivered revenue of $4,479.0 million and EBITDA of $2,840.5 million, even as copper output fell 9% and full-year production guidance was cut. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is spending money on, and what could change the picture. It contains no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Antofagasta plc
Ticker / exchange	ANTO, London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100 constituent)
Sector	Materials — copper mining, with a small rail and road transport division
Headquarters	London, United Kingdom; all mining operations in Chile
CEO / Leadership	Ivan Arriagada (Chief Executive Officer); Jean-Paul Luksic (Non-Executive Chairman); Mauricio Ortiz (Chief Financial Officer) — all confirmed in the H1 2026 results, 13 Aug 2026
Employees	8,457 direct employees at 31 Dec 2025 (5,902 male, 2,555 female); total workforce including contractors 38,072 (2025 Annual Report)
Revenue (FY2025)	$8,620.3m, up 30% on FY2024’s $6,613.4m
EBITDA (FY2025)	$5,201.9m, a record; EBITDA margin 60.3%
Net earnings attributable to owners (FY2025)	$1,328.9m including exceptional items ($1,274.4m excluding)
Copper production (FY2025)	653.7kt copper, 211.3koz gold, 15.8kt molybdenum
Net cash cost (FY2025)	$1.19/lb after by-product credits ($2.38/lb before)
Share price	~3,998p (10 Sep 2026); closed 4,081p on 9 Sep 2026, up 4.7% on the day
Market cap	~£39.4bn (~$53.4bn at GBP/USD 1.3555)
Shares in issue	985,856,695 ordinary shares of 5p, plus 2,000,000 5% cumulative preference shares
Reporting currency	US dollars
Dividend	FY2025 total 64.6c per share; H1 2026 interim 30.1c declared, payable 30 Sep 2026
Net debt	$3,966.1m at 30 Jun 2026 (0.68x EBITDA); $2,749.5m at 31 Dec 2025

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Direct leverage to a tight copper market: the realised copper price rose from $4.93/lb across FY2025 to $6.19/lb in H1 2026, a 36% increase, and that alone lifted half-year revenue 18% and EBITDA 27% despite a 9% fall in production volumes.
• A funded growth pipeline that is already most of the way through its spending: the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator was described as on track and on budget at the H1 2026 results, targeted for completion in 2027, and management states that Centinela plus the Los Pelambres projects should raise Group copper production by roughly 30% over time.
• Industry-leading margin: the FY2025 EBITDA margin of 60.3% widened by nine percentage points, and H1 2026’s 63.4% margin puts the Group towards the top end of global pure-play copper producers on the company’s own comparison, helped by large gold and molybdenum by-product credits of $1,628.1m in FY2025.
• Balance sheet capacity through the capex peak: net debt of $3,966.1m at 30 Jun 2026 equates to 0.68x EBITDA, with $2,445.4m of cash and $1,714.7m of liquid investments on hand, and management stated at the half year that peak capital expenditure has passed.
• Optionality outside Chile: the US Senate voted 50 to 49 on 17 Apr 2026 to overturn the 20-year federal mining ban on Minnesota public lands, which reopens the roughly $2bn Twin Metals Birch Lake copper-nickel-cobalt project that had been stranded.

Bear Case

• Operational delivery has slipped: FY2026 copper guidance was cut at the 13 Aug 2026 half-year results to 625,000–655,000 tonnes from an original 650,000–700,000 tonnes after a severe weather event forced a precautionary shutdown at Los Pelambres, and the shares fell around 6.8% on the announcement.
• Free cash flow is negative through the build: FY2025 net cash from operating activities of $3,071.6m was outspent by capital expenditure of $3,684.5m, and on a trailing twelve-month basis to 30 Jun 2026 operating cash flow of $3,511.2m against capex of $3,736.2m leaves free cash flow of about minus $225m.
• Chilean fiscal and permitting risk: the 2023 mining royalty law (a 1% ad valorem charge plus a margin-based component of 8% to 26%) remains in force, and the CEO has publicly flagged a cumulative tax load of up to 48% against roughly 41% in Australia and Peru.
• Water and climate exposure is now a realised, not theoretical, risk: the July 2026 Coquimbo weather emergency stopped Los Pelambres outright, and the Group is committing roughly $909m at Zaldivar and around $2bn at Los Pelambres purely to remove continental water from its supply chain by 2027 and 2028.
• Concentrated control and a large minority stake: the Luksic family interests hold the majority of the ordinary shares, and $4,330.9m of the $15,083.4m total equity at 30 Jun 2026 sits with non-controlling interests, so headline Group EBITDA overstates what is economically attributable to outside shareholders.

3. Revenue Segments

Antofagasta reports two divisions — Mining and Transport — and Zaldivar is equity-accounted rather than consolidated, so it contributes no Group revenue line. The table below breaks FY2025 Group revenue of $8,620.3m into its disclosed product categories.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Copper concentrate and cathode	79.1% ($6,818.7m)	The core product, sold from Los Pelambres, Centinela Concentrates, Centinela Cathodes and Antucoya. Revenue rose $1,413.4m in FY2025 on a realised price of $4.93/lb and higher volumes.
Gold (by-product)	9.1% ($788.4m)	Recovered from Centinela Concentrates and Los Pelambres. Sales volumes rose 19.4% to 211,400 ounces at a realised price of $3,734.9/oz.
Molybdenum (by-product)	8.1% ($697.6m)	Recovered at Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates. Volumes rose from 10,900t to 15,300t in FY2025.
Silver and other by-products	1.6% ($142.1m)	Minor by-product credits, up $63.9m year on year.
Transport division (FCAB)	2.0% ($173.5m)	The Antofagasta Railway and associated trucking, moving freight for mining customers in northern Chile and Bolivia. Revenue fell 11.0% in FY2025 on lower demand.

On an EBITDA rather than revenue basis, FY2025 contributions were Los Pelambres $2,548.0m, Centinela $2,234.2m, Antucoya $327.0m, Transport $69.7m and the attributable share of Zaldivar $61.8m.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Antofagasta mines copper ore, concentrates or leaches it, and sells copper concentrate and cathode into a global commodity market at prices it does not control. Roughly four-fifths of revenue is copper; the remainder is by-product metal recovered from the same ore body at low incremental cost, plus a small transport business. Because the by-products are effectively free tonnes, they are credited against mining costs: the FY2025 cash cost before by-products was $2.38/lb, but the net cash cost after by-product credits was $1.19/lb.

Unit economics. The gap between realised price and net cash cost is where the margin sits. In FY2025 that spread was $4.93/lb against $1.19/lb; in H1 2026 it widened to $6.19/lb against $1.22/lb even though the cost before by-products rose 23% to $2.85/lb, because gold and molybdenum credits absorbed the increase. This is why EBITDA rose 27% in a half-year when copper volumes fell 9%.

The moat, such as it is. Commodity producers have no pricing power, so the durable advantages are geological and positional: long-life, large-scale ore bodies in an established mining jurisdiction; existing concentrator, port, power and rail infrastructure that a new entrant would need a decade and billions of dollars to replicate; and a permitting and community track record in Chile. The Group also owns its own logistics through FCAB, and has been buying its way out of its single largest operating constraint by funding desalination and treated-wastewater supply rather than competing for scarce continental water.

Capital allocation. The dividend policy is a formula rather than a promise: 35% of underlying earnings at the interim stage, with the full-year payout set by the Board. FY2025 was declared at a 50% payout (64.6c per share) against 100% in 2021 and 2022, reflecting the switch of cash into the growth programme.

5. Financial Health

Five-year annual record. All figures are taken from Antofagasta’s own preliminary and annual results announcements. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings at the year end; including current borrowings, total borrowings were $7,659.4m at 31 Dec 2025 and $8,126.2m at 30 Jun 2026.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$7,470.1m	+45.6%	130.9c	142.5c	142.5c	$2,835.5m
FY2022	$5,862.0m	−21.5%	155.5c	59.7c	59.7c	$2,844.5m
FY2023	$6,324.5m	+7.9%	84.7c	72.0c	36.0c	$3,177.3m
FY2024	$6,613.4m	+4.6%	84.1c	62.8c	31.4c	$4,622.9m
FY2025	$8,620.3m	+30.3%	134.8c	129.3c	64.6c	$7,158.2m

GAAP EPS is basic earnings per share including exceptional items. Adjusted EPS is the company’s own underlying earnings per share, which excludes exceptional items. The two diverge sharply in FY2022, when an exceptional item lifted reported EPS well above the underlying figure, and in FY2024, when a $371.4m exceptional credit did the same.

Half-year record. Antofagasta reports financial results half-yearly and production quarterly. Half-year figures below are as reported; the FY2025 row is the audited full year.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$4,479.0m	85.9c	85.9c
H2 2025 (derived)	$4,820.9m	81.9c	81.9c
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$3,799.4m	47.4c	52.9c
FY2025 total	$8,620.3m	129.3c	134.8c

H2 2025 is derived by subtracting the reported H1 2025 figures from the audited full year; Antofagasta does not publish a standalone second-half statement. H1 2026 had no exceptional items, so adjusted and GAAP earnings per share are identical.

Cash flow and the capex peak. FY2025 cash flows from operations were $4,252.9m, reducing to $3,071.6m of net cash from operating activities after $473.1m of interest and $708.2m of tax. Against that, capital expenditure was $3,684.5m and depreciation and amortisation was $1,695.4m. In H1 2026 net cash from operating activities rose 38% to $1,593.4m with capex of $1,672.1m. Full-year 2026 capex guidance is unchanged at $3.4bn excluding Zaldivar.

Balance sheet. At 30 Jun 2026 the Group held $2,445.4m of cash and cash equivalents plus $1,714.7m of liquid investments against total borrowings of $8,126.2m, for net debt of $3,966.1m and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.68 times. Total equity was $15,083.4m, of which $10,752.5m is attributable to owners of the parent and $4,330.9m to non-controlling interests.

6. Valuation and Market Data

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~£39.4bn / ~$53.4bn (985,856,695 shares at ~3,998p, 10 Sep 2026, converted at GBP/USD 1.3555)
Enterprise value	~$57.4bn (market cap ~$53.4bn + total borrowings $8,126.2m − cash $2,445.4m and liquid investments $1,714.7m, per the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~32x (share price ~$54.19 divided by trailing twelve-month basic EPS of 167.8c, being 81.9c in H2 2025 plus 85.9c in H1 2026). On the same twelve months of underlying EPS the multiple is also ~32x, since H1 2026 carried no exceptional items.
P/E (forward)	~31.5x on H1 2026 underlying EPS of 85.9c annualised to $1.72. Antofagasta does not issue earnings guidance, only production, cost and capex guidance, so this is an arithmetic annualisation and not a forecast; the copper price is the dominant swing factor.
P/S (TTM)	~5.7x (market cap ~$53.4bn / trailing twelve-month revenue of $9,299.9m, being $4,820.9m in H2 2025 plus $4,479.0m in H1 2026)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~9.9x (EV ~$57.4bn / trailing twelve-month EBITDA of $5,808.2m, being FY2025 EBITDA $5,201.9m less H1 2025 $2,234.2m plus H1 2026 $2,840.5m). FY2025 depreciation and amortisation used as the cross-check is $1,695.4m, the wider total from the segment note that includes the $36.9m share of associates and joint ventures, rather than the narrower cash flow add-back.
P/FCF	n/m — trailing twelve-month free cash flow is negative at about minus $225m (operating cash flow $3,511.2m less capital expenditure $3,736.2m). Antofagasta is at the tail of a multi-year build programme; FY2025 alone was operating cash flow $3,071.6m against capex $3,684.5m.
Price/book	~5.0x (share price ~$54.19 against equity attributable to owners of $10,752.5m across 985,856,695 shares, or ~$10.91 per share, at 30 Jun 2026)
52-week high	4,475.0p, reached 25 Feb 2026
52-week low	2,184.0p, reached 11 Sep 2025
Dividend yield (trailing)	~1.4% (48.0c final for FY2025 plus 30.1c H1 2026 interim, against a share price of ~$54.19)
Net debt / EBITDA	0.68x at 30 Jun 2026 (0.53x at 31 Dec 2025)
Short interest (% of float)	UK-listed shares do not publish an aggregate short interest percentage. The only disclosed net short position located is Elliott Investment Management at 0.90% of issued share capital, last changed 22 Dec 2025 on the LSE.co.uk feed; Investegate’s tracker shows no active position, so the two sources conflict. Verify against the FCA daily short positions register at fca.org.uk.
Days to cover	Not published for UK-listed shares — the FCA regime discloses individual net short positions above a threshold rather than aggregate short volume, so no days-to-cover figure exists. Verify at fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling.

Charts and live pricing for ANTO and its peers are available on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

Centinela Second Concentrator. The largest item in the programme at $4.4bn, described at the H1 2026 results as on track and on budget with construction targeted for completion in 2027. Additional geotechnical works were required in the flotation-cell area, flagged as a schedule risk but contained within the overall timetable. At its peak in 2025 the project workforce numbered over 13,000 people. Combined with the Los Pelambres work, management expects the Group’s copper production to rise by roughly 30% over time.

Los Pelambres Future Growth Enabling Projects. Around $2bn covering a new concentrate pipeline and an expansion of the desalination plant from 400 to 800 litres per second, reported on schedule in H1 2026. The purpose is twofold: unlock throughput growth and cut continental water use from 2027.

Zaldivar water and life extension. The Board approved roughly $909m on 9 Jun 2026 for a new water pipeline and pumping system that will draw treated wastewater from the state utility ECONSSA, ending continental water use from mid-2028 and extending the mine’s life to 2051.

Centinela in-pit tailings. A project converting former open pits into thickened tailings deposits with water recirculation, scheduled to begin operating in 2026. It reduces both the tailings dam footprint and fresh water draw.

Twin Metals Minnesota. Dormant for years under a federal mining ban on Minnesota public lands. The US Senate voted 50 to 49 on 17 Apr 2026 to overturn that ban, which reopens the roughly $2bn Birch Lake underground copper-nickel-cobalt project near Ely. No development decision or capital commitment has been announced.

8. Competitive Landscape

Antofagasta is a mid-sized pure-play copper producer. Its closest comparators are other listed copper miners, though several of them are diversified and only partly comparable.

Peer	Market cap (Sep 2026)	Key 2026 metric
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)	~$104bn	2026 copper sales guidance cut to about 3.1bn lb from 3.4bn lb after the delayed Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up following the September 2025 mud rush
Southern Copper (SCCO)	~$156bn	2026 production guidance raised to 917,000t of copper, still around 5% below 2025 on lower Cuajone ore grades
Teck Resources (TECK)	~$35bn	2026 copper guidance 455,000–530,000t, including 200,000–235,000t from Quebrada Blanca and 95,000–105,000t from Antamina
Glencore (GLEN.L)	~£71bn	2026 own-sourced copper guidance maintained at 810,000–870,000t despite completing the sale of the Kidd mine on 1 Jun 2026
Rio Tinto (RIO)	~$171bn	2026 copper guidance 800,000–870,000t with C1 unit cost guidance cut to 30–50c/lb; Oyu Tolgoi H1 2026 production up 31% year on year
Antofagasta (ANTO) for reference	~$53.4bn	2026 copper guidance cut to 625,000–655,000t on 13 Aug 2026; net cash cost guidance $1.15–$1.35/lb unchanged

The relevant point of difference is purity of exposure. Glencore and Rio Tinto generate most of their earnings elsewhere, so a copper price move affects Antofagasta’s earnings far more directly. Against Freeport and Southern Copper, Antofagasta is smaller by volume but reports a higher EBITDA margin, helped by its gold and molybdenum credits.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Ivan Arriagada has been Chief Executive Officer since 2016 and signed the H1 2026 results on 13 Aug 2026. Mauricio Ortiz is Chief Financial Officer and Jean-Paul Luksic has been Non-Executive Chairman since 2004. The board changed twice in 2026: Andronico Luksic Craig stepped down on 27 Jan 2026 and Andronico Luksic Lederer was appointed a Non-Executive Director with effect from 1 Mar 2026, with a further director change and committee reshuffle announced on 12 Aug 2026. Ignacio Bustamante joined as an independent Non-Executive Director in 2025.

All disclosed 2026 director dealings relate to the cash-settled long-term incentive plan, notified by RNS on 1 Apr 2026 for transactions dated 29 Mar 2026. There have been no open-market purchases or sales by directors disclosed between April and September 2026.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	65,507	Nil consideration	Nil	LTIP performance award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	28,074	Nil consideration	Nil	LTIP restricted award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	17,049	£33.2767	£567,334	2025 restricted award
Ivan Arriagada (CEO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	99,321	£32.3782	£3,215,838	2023 performance award, 97.3% score
Mauricio Ortiz (CFO)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	16,729	£32.3782	£541,655	2023 performance award
Araneda (Chief Operating Officer)	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	16,729	£32.3782	£541,655	2023 performance award
All PDMRs combined	29 Mar 2026	Vesting, cash-settled	229,512	£32.3782	£7,431,190	2023 performance awards
All PDMRs combined	29 Mar 2026	Award granted	159,509 performance and 68,358 restricted	Nil consideration	Nil	LTIP 2026 grants

On ownership, the Luksic family interests control Antofagasta through Metalinvest Establishment and related entities. No TR-1 major-holdings notification was filed during 2026, the most recent being 22 Sep 2025, which indicates no disclosed change in the controlling stake this year. Because the exact current percentage has not been reconfirmed by a 2026-dated filing, readers should treat any specific figure as unverified for 2026 and check the company’s RNS history directly.

10. Key Risks

• Copper price (Macro): revenue and earnings are directly geared to a price the company cannot influence. LME three-month copper was near record levels of around $14,617 per tonne in early September 2026 on electrification and data-centre demand against constrained supply; the H1 2026 realised price of $6.19/lb is well above the FY2025 average of $4.93/lb, so a reversion would cut earnings sharply.
• Chilean tax, royalty and political change (Regulatory): the 2023 mining royalty law imposes a 1% ad valorem charge plus a margin-based component of 8% to 26%. Countervailing reforms are in train, including a Framework Law for Sectoral Authorizations enacted in September 2025 that cuts permitting timelines by 30% to 70%, and a planned corporate tax cut from 27% to 23%, but the fiscal direction is not settled.
• Water scarcity and extreme weather (Operational): already realised. A declared state of catastrophe in the Coquimbo Region in July 2026 forced a precautionary shutdown at Los Pelambres on 24 Jul 2026 and directly caused the FY2026 guidance cut. Roughly $2.9bn of committed spending across Zaldivar and Los Pelambres exists mainly to remove this dependency.
• Ore grade decline and volume delivery (Operational): FY2025 copper production fell 2% year on year with Los Pelambres down 8%, and H1 2026 output fell 9.5% to 285.0kt with sales down 17.3%. Grade and mix effects between Centinela Concentrates, Centinela Cathodes and Los Pelambres are a recurring drag.
• Capital project execution (Operational): the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator is the single largest commitment. Management reports it on track and on budget, but has disclosed that additional geotechnical works were needed in the flotation-cell area. A slip in the 2027 completion target would push out the expected 30% production uplift.
• Labour relations (Operational): the Los Pelambres union rejected an initial offer by 94% in October 2025 before supervisors settled in December; Centinela concluded a three-year deal in H1 2026 that contributed to higher costs, and Zaldivar settled in H2 2026. Strikes were averted each time, but the settlements have raised the cost base.
• Controlling shareholder and minority leakage (Financial): $4,330.9m of $15,083.4m of total equity at 30 Jun 2026 belongs to non-controlling interests in the operating subsidiaries, so Group-level EBITDA and cash flow overstate the share attributable to Antofagasta plc shareholders. The Luksic family also controls the majority of the voting shares.

11. Recent Developments

• 29 Jan 2026 — Q4 2025 production report. Confirmed FY2025 copper production of 653.7kt, gold of 211.3koz and molybdenum of 15.8kt.
• 17 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results: record EBITDA and a 48.0c final dividend. Revenue up 30% to $8,620.3m, EBITDA up 52% to $5,201.9m, EBITDA margin up nine percentage points to 60.3%, and underlying earnings more than doubled. Total FY2025 dividend 64.6c per share at a 50% payout.
• 17 Apr 2026 — US Senate votes to overturn the Minnesota mining ban. A 50 to 49 vote reopened the roughly $2bn Twin Metals Birch Lake copper-nickel-cobalt project.
• 15 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 production report. Copper 143.0kt, down 7.6%; sales 137.0kt, down 19.5%; net cash cost $1.08/lb, down 29.9%.
• 07 May 2026 — 2026 Annual General Meeting held at Church House Westminster, London.
• 09 Jun 2026 — Board approves $909m Zaldivar water investment. A new pipeline and pumping system drawing treated wastewater from ECONSSA, ending continental water use from mid-2028 and extending mine life to 2051.
• 15 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 production report. H1 copper 285.0kt, down 9.5%; gold 92.8koz, up 1.8%; net cash cost $1.22/lb.
• 24 Jul 2026 — Los Pelambres shut down as a precaution after a declared state of catastrophe from severe weather in the Coquimbo Region.
• 13 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results and a guidance cut. Revenue $4,479.0m, up 18%; EBITDA $2,840.5m, up 27%; EPS 85.9c, up 62%; interim dividend 30.1c. FY2026 copper guidance cut to 625,000–655,000t from 650,000–700,000t, and the shares fell around 6.8%.
• 09 Sep 2026 — shares close at 4,081p, up 4.7% on the day, outperforming the FTSE 100 as copper traded near record highs.

Macro events that move the copper complex are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and reader discussion is on the ChartsView Forum.

12. Key Dates

• 04 Sep 2026 — record date for the 2026 interim dividend of 30.1c per ordinary share (passed)
• 30 Sep 2026 — 2026 interim dividend of 30.1c per share paid, amounting to $296.7m
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 production report; the equivalent 2025 report was released on 23 Oct 2025
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 production report, following the 29 Jan 2026 pattern
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 annual results; FY2025 results were announced on 17 Feb 2026
• Expected May 2027 — 2027 Annual General Meeting; the 2026 meeting was held on 7 May 2026
• Expected 2027 — targeted completion of the $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator

Exact dates for 2027 events had not been published by the company as at 10 September 2026. Antofagasta typically confirms its financial calendar with the full-year results announcement.

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