Last Updated: 22 April 2026
Antofagasta plc (ANTO.L) is a FTSE 100 copper miner headquartered in London and controlled by Chile's Luksic family. The group operates four copper mines in Chile (Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and a 50% stake in Zaldivar alongside Barrick), produced 653,700 tonnes of copper in 2025 and reported record EBITDA of $5.2 billion on revenue of $8.6 billion. On 16 April 2026 Antofagasta released its Q1 2026 quarterly production report, and on the same day the US Senate voted 50-49 to overturn the mining moratorium near Minnesota's Boundary Waters — a decision that directly affects the company's Twin Metals project. The business is now in the peak capex phase of a $4.4 billion Centinela Second Concentrator expansion (first copper 2027) and the doubling of the Los Pelambres desalination plant. This research pulls together the Q1 2026 production numbers, the 2025 annual results, the Luksic ownership structure, mine-level costs, the copper peer group, and the regulatory landscape in Chile. For live price and volume see our live charts, for UK dividend dates and production calendars see the economic calendar, and to discuss the name with other investors join the ChartsView forum.
1. Company Snapshot
| Company | Antofagasta plc |
| Ticker | ANTO.L (LSE, FTSE 100) |
| Sector | Mining — copper (primary), gold & molybdenum (by-products) |
| Head office | London, UK (operating HQ in Santiago, Chile) |
| Listing | Premium listing, London Stock Exchange (ordinary 5p shares) |
| Chairman | Jean-Paul Luksic Fontbona (since 2004) |
| CEO | Iván Arriagada Herrera (since April 2016) |
| Share price (20 Apr 2026 close) | 3,773.50p |
| Market capitalisation | £37.2bn (approx. $50bn) |
| 52-week range | 1,537.50p — 4,475.00p (all-time high 25 Feb 2026) |
| FY 2025 revenue | $8.6bn (+30% YoY) |
| FY 2025 EBITDA | $5.2bn (margin 60%, record) |
| FY 2025 copper production | 653,700 tonnes |
| 2026 copper guidance | 650,000 — 700,000 tonnes |
| 2026 capex guidance | $3.4bn |
| FY 2025 dividend | 64.6¢ per share (50% payout of underlying EPS) |
| Employees | Approximately 7,300 (group, 2025) |
| Reporting currency | US dollars |
| Website | antofagasta.co.uk |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
These are factual summaries of the strongest arguments distilled from the rest of this report, not opinions or recommendations.
Bull case
- Pure-play exposure to a supply-constrained commodity. Antofagasta produced 653.7kt of copper in 2025 with by-product credits from gold and molybdenum. The company points to grid electrification, EV adoption and AI data-centre build-out as structural demand drivers, and the LME three-month copper price traded above $12,000/t in April 2026.
- Record cash generation. FY 2025 EBITDA hit $5.2bn (up 52% year-on-year) at a 60% margin; H2 2025 revenue was approximately $4.8bn versus $3.8bn in H1 2025.
- Cost leadership on the cost curve. Q1 2026 net cash costs fell 30% year-on-year to $1.08/lb thanks to higher by-product credits (gold and molybdenum). Mine-level net cash costs in Q1 were 72¢/lb at Los Pelambres and 34¢/lb at Centinela.
- Visible 30% capacity growth pipeline. The $4.4bn Centinela Second Concentrator (95ktpd plant using HPGR grinding) is on time and on budget for first copper in 2027, adding 170kt of copper-equivalent tonnes per year.
- Dividend restoration. FY 2025 total dividend of 64.6¢ per share was up 106% year-on-year, reflecting a 50% payout of underlying EPS versus the 35% policy minimum.
- Twin Metals US optionality now unlocked. The US Senate voted on 16 April 2026 to reverse the 20-year moratorium on hardrock mining near the Boundary Waters, clearing the path (subject to further permitting) for the Twin Metals Minnesota copper-nickel-cobalt-PGM project.
Bear case
- Q1 2026 copper production fell 8% year-on-year to 143kt on lower grades and processing rates at Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates. Cash costs before by-products rose 17% to $2.77/lb.
- Peak capex and funding drag. Capex reached $3.68bn in 2025 and is guided at $3.4bn in 2026; net debt at year-end 2024 was $1.63bn and is rising through the build cycle.
- Commodity-price exposure. Revenue moves directly with LME copper and (for by-products) gold and molybdenum. The company acknowledges guidance on net cash costs assumes fuel prices return to January 2026 levels.
- Chilean regulatory burden. Law 21.591 (2023 Mining Royalty Act) imposes a 1% ad-valorem charge plus an 8–26% operating-margin component on producers above 50kt fine copper, with an overall maximum tax burden of 46.5%.
- Controlling-shareholder structure. The Luksic family holds approximately 60.66% of ordinary shares via Metalinvest and Kupferberg, plus Chairman Jean-Paul Luksic’s personal 4.3% stake via Aureberg Establishment — free float is limited and minority shareholders have limited ability to influence outcomes.
- Water and permitting risk. Los Pelambres operates in a drought-prone catchment; the company plans to operate mainly on desalinated and recycled water from end-2026, but the doubling of desalination capacity to 800 l/s is still under construction.
- Twin Metals remains controversial. Even after the Senate vote, the project faces litigation and ongoing permitting; the asset’s value is optionality, not production.
3. What Does Antofagasta Actually Do?
Antofagasta is a pure-play copper miner. Every dollar of group revenue ultimately comes from selling copper concentrate, copper cathodes, gold (as a by-product at Centinela and Los Pelambres), molybdenum concentrate (Los Pelambres and Centinela) and silver. The group does not have a material diversified business outside mining; a historical transport division in Chile exists but is not a significant contributor to consolidated results. All four producing mines are in Chile’s Antofagasta and Coquimbo regions.
Production by mine in 2025 is indicative of how the group’s 653.7kt of copper output is distributed. Using 2025 guidance and group disclosures as the basis:
- Los Pelambres (100% owned operator, 60% economic interest) — the flagship asset, located in the Coquimbo region. 2025 copper guidance was 310–325kt, putting Los Pelambres at roughly 48% of group copper production. It is also the main source of molybdenum.
- Centinela (70% owned) — an open-pit complex in the Antofagasta region combining a concentrator (Centinela Concentrates) and a cathode SX-EW plant (Centinela Cathodes). Centinela is Antofagasta’s main gold contributor. Together the two lines produce approximately 37% of group copper.
- Antucoya (70% owned) — a lower-grade copper cathode (SX-EW) operation in the Antofagasta region. Contributes roughly 12% of group copper.
- Zaldivar (50% JV with Barrick Mining; Antofagasta operator since December 2015) — a copper cathode operation. Attributable share is roughly 8% of group copper (the group consolidates its 50% interest).
Copper from the concentrators (Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates) is sold as copper concentrate to smelters under long-term offtake contracts, typically priced at the LME copper price minus treatment and refining charges. Copper from the cathode operations (Centinela Cathodes, Antucoya, Zaldivar) is sold as refined LME-grade cathode at LME price plus a regional premium.
4. The Business Model
Antofagasta's economics boil down to three levers: the copper price, the unit cash cost of production at each mine, and the by-product credits from gold and molybdenum. The company does not hedge copper prices structurally, so revenue and margin scale directly with the LME copper and the by-product basket.
- Concentrate vs cathode. Roughly 80–85% of group copper output is sold as concentrate; the balance is LME-grade cathode. Concentrate pricing involves a treatment charge (TC) and refining charge (RC) paid to smelters, plus a deduction for minor elements such as arsenic. Cathode earns a regional premium (CIF Shanghai or Chilean cathode premium) on top of the LME reference price.
- By-product credits. 2025 gold production of 211,300oz (up 13%) and a 48% jump in molybdenum production meant by-product credits were $1.69/lb in Q1 2026, up 104% year-on-year. These credits are netted against cash cost of production when deriving "net cash cost".
- Unit costs. For Q1 2026 the group reported cash costs before by-product credits of $2.77/lb and net cash costs of $1.08/lb. Los Pelambres net cash cost was 72¢/lb; Centinela 34¢/lb — positioning Antofagasta among the lower-cost major producers.
- Capital intensity. Large open-pit copper mines are capital-heavy: 2025 group capex was $3.68bn and 2026 guidance is $3.4bn, dominated by the Centinela Second Concentrator build and the Los Pelambres desalination doubling.
- Dividend policy. Minimum 35% payout of underlying earnings, with the board targeting 50% where cash generation and the investment programme allow. FY 2025 declared 64.6¢ per share (interim 16.6¢ plus final 48.0¢), equivalent to the 50% ceiling.
There is no material government subsidy or regulatory-credit dependency in the revenue line — Antofagasta does not receive production tax credits similar to US renewables or EV makers. What it does face is the reverse: a specific mining royalty under Chile's Law 21.591, which combines a 1% ad-valorem component on copper sales with an 8–26% operating-margin component for producers above 50kt fine copper. The overall maximum combined tax burden (corporate income tax plus royalty) is capped at 46.5%.
5. Financial Health
Antofagasta reports in US dollars and publishes audited financial statements twice a year (half-year and full-year) plus quarterly production reports. The five-year revenue and EBITDA trend below reflects the copper-price cycle (weak 2022–2023 versus strong 2024–2025) and the investment cycle (rising capex and net debt as the Centinela Second Concentrator moves through construction).
| FY ($m unless noted) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~7,470 | 5,863 | 6,325 | 6,609 | 8,600 |
| EBITDA | ~3,331 | 2,835 | 2,700 | 3,400 | 5,200 |
| EBITDA margin | ~45% | ~48% | ~43% | 51% | 60% |
| Copper production (kt) | 721.5 | 646.2 | 660.5 | 664.0 | 653.7 |
| Net cash cost ($/lb) | 1.20 | 1.64 | 1.61 | 1.64 | 1.19 |
| Capex | ~1,600 | ~1,800 | ~1,900 | ~2,700 | 3,680 |
| Dividend / share (¢) | 118.9 | 50.7 | 33.2 | 31.4 | 64.6 |
Half-yearly revenue and EBITDA margin show the cyclical rebound clearly, with margin expanding from ~37% in H2 2023 to ~61% in H2 2025 as copper prices recovered and by-product credits increased.
Full-year 2024 profit before tax was approximately $2.06bn. FY 2025 profit before tax including exceptional items was $3.16bn, up 53%, with EPS of 134.8¢ (up 60%) and underlying EPS of 129.3¢ (up 106%). Net debt at year-end 2024 was $1,629m versus $1,160m a year earlier, and the company paid $1bn for its second-phase Centinela drawdowns in 2024 with further funding secured via an export credit facility.
6. Valuation & Market Data
The figures below reflect LSE-reported data around the last close (20 April 2026). Antofagasta reports financials in US dollars, so the P/E and P/S metrics require currency conversion and are sensitive to the GBP/USD rate.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (20 Apr 2026 close) | 3,773.50p |
| Market capitalisation | approximately £37.2bn / $50bn |
| 52-week high | 4,475.00p (25 Feb 2026) |
| 52-week low | 1,537.50p |
| Trailing P/E (TTM, GBP basis) | approximately 39.6x |
| Price / Sales (FY 2025 revenue $8.6bn) | approximately 5.8x (USD basis) |
| EV / EBITDA (FY 2025 EBITDA $5.2bn) | approximately 10x (incorporating ~$1.6bn net debt, indicative) |
| Dividend yield | approximately 1.3% (based on 64.6¢ FY25 dividend at current GBP/USD) |
| FY 2025 final dividend | 48.0¢ per share (ex-div 16 Apr 2026) |
| FY 2025 interim dividend | 16.6¢ per share (paid 30 Sep 2025) |
| Ordinary shares in issue | 985.9m |
| Free float | approximately 35% (Luksic family ~60.66%, plus Chairman Luksic 4.3%) |
| Short interest (LSE regulatory disclosure) | No net short positions above the 0.5% UK disclosure threshold as of mid-April 2026 |
These numbers are raw — they are not a valuation call. Copper miners are cyclical and the trailing P/E reflects a trough-earnings period washed out by the 2025 rally; forward multiples depend entirely on copper and by-product prices, which this report does not forecast.
7. What Are They Building?
Antofagasta is in the heaviest capex phase of its recent history. Four projects matter.
- Centinela Second Concentrator — $4.4bn, board-approved in December 2023. A new 95,000-tonnes-per-day concentrator at the Centinela district using high-pressure grinding rolls (HPGR) to cut energy intensity, plus expansion of the raw seawater pumping system, a new tailings storage facility, outbound logistics upgrades and autonomous haulage for the Esquador Sur mine expansion. First copper is targeted for 2027. Incremental output at steady state: 170kt copper-equivalent per year, split as 144kt copper, 130koz gold and 3,500t molybdenum.
- Los Pelambres desalination and water infrastructure — doubling the existing seawater reverse-osmosis (SWRO) plant at Los Vilos to 800 litres per second. Structural work on the SWRO building has commenced. From end-2026 management has guided that Los Pelambres will operate primarily on desalinated and recycled water. A second phase adding a further 400 l/s is scheduled for 2027.
- Cachorro exploration project — an earlier-stage greenfield copper discovery 37km north of Baquedano in the Antofagasta region, between Centinela and Antucoya. Current mineral resource estimate of 255 million tonnes at 1.26% Cu (with 4 g/t silver as a by-product). In April 2025 the company submitted an Environmental Impact Statement (DIA) and outlined a $220m exploration programme (more than 700 drill holes plus an exploration decline) over the next seven years.
- Twin Metals Minnesota — a 100%-owned US copper-nickel-cobalt-platinum group metals project on the Duluth Complex. Previously blocked by a 20-year mining moratorium on federal land adjacent to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. The US Senate voted 50-49 on 16 April 2026 to overturn the moratorium under the Congressional Review Act, following House passage; the resolution was sent to President Trump, who has indicated he will sign. The Trump administration had already reinstated a 2017 legal opinion in autumn 2025 that revived Twin Metals' mineral leases. Construction approval still requires project-specific permits at federal and state level.
8. Competitive Landscape
Global copper mine production was approximately 23.4 million tonnes in 2025. The industry is relatively concentrated at the top: BHP, Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan, Glencore and Southern Copper between them account for around a quarter of world output. Antofagasta is the largest London-listed pure-play copper producer. The table below uses FY 2024 published copper production as the basis for the market-share figures (FY 2025 data from Codelco is the 1.332mt Chilean media figure; other 2025 numbers are not all final).
| Producer | Listing | Copper production (kt) | Share of global output |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group | ASX, LSE, NYSE | ~1,460 | ~6.2% |
| Codelco (state-owned, Chile) | Unlisted | ~1,330 | ~5.7% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | NYSE: FCX | ~1,200 | ~5.1% |
| Glencore | LSE: GLEN | ~950 | ~4.1% |
| Southern Copper | NYSE: SCCO | ~930 | ~4.0% |
| Antofagasta | LSE: ANTO | ~650 | ~2.8% |
| Teck Resources | TSX, NYSE | ~446 | ~1.9% |
In relative terms Antofagasta is a mid-sized copper producer. What differentiates it from the top majors is the absence of diversification: BHP derives most profit from iron ore, Glencore from trading and coal, Southern Copper is part of Grupo México, and Freeport-McMoRan has gold and molybdenum exposure. Antofagasta is the cleanest copper beta on the LSE alongside peer Glencore (though Glencore is more diversified) and Central Asia Metals. The closest pure-play copper comparator on a North American listing is Southern Copper.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Antofagasta is controlled by the Luksic family of Chile (Iris Fontbona is the family matriarch following the death of her husband Andrónico Luksic Abaroa in 2005). The family's broader holdings include Quinenco, Banco de Chile and stakes in Hapag-Lloyd. At Antofagasta the family’s ownership is structured through two investment vehicles, both controlled by the E. Abaroa Foundation.
| Holder | Approximate stake | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Metalinvest Establishment | ~50.72% of ordinary shares | Plus 94.12% of preference shares; controlled by E. Abaroa Foundation (Luksic family) |
| Kupferberg Establishment | ~9.94% of ordinary shares | Controlled by E. Abaroa Foundation (Luksic family) |
| Aureberg Establishment | ~4.3% of ordinary shares | Holding vehicle for Chairman Jean-Paul Luksic |
| Luksic family total | ~60.66% of ordinary shares (plus Jean-Paul’s 4.3%) | Control stake; free float therefore around 35% |
| BlackRock, Vanguard, Norges Bank | Multiple holdings disclosed via TR-1 filings | Among the largest institutional holders within the free float |
Key executives and directors (2026):
- Jean-Paul Luksic Fontbona — Non-Executive Chairman (since 2004); son of the group founder.
- Iván Arriagada Herrera — Chief Executive Officer (since 8 April 2016). Re-elected Chair of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) in 2026.
- Mauricio Ortiz Esquerre — Chief Financial Officer.
- Andrónico Luksic Craig — stepped down from the board on 27 January 2026 after decades of association with the company.
- Andrónico Luksic Lederer — appointed Non-Executive Director with effect from 1 March 2026, continuing family board representation.
PDMR activity (most recent). In its 1 April 2026 RNS, Antofagasta disclosed that on 29 March 2026 awards were granted under the Long Term Incentive Plan to PDMRs including the CEO, COO and CFO (159,507 performance awards plus 68,358 restricted awards). On the same date, prior-year vestings settled in cash: the CEO received £458,852 from 2024 awards, £567,334 from 2025 awards, and £3,215,838 from 2023 performance awards. The market value used was £33.28 per share and the 2023 performance score was 97.3%. These settlements were executed outside a trading venue under the UK market abuse regulations.
10. Risks and Challenges
- Commodity-price risk. Antofagasta does not hedge copper structurally. Revenue and margin swing directly with the LME copper price (three-month price above $12,000/t in April 2026) and the gold/molybdenum basket. A sustained copper-price correction would feed straight into cash flow during the peak-capex year.
- Operational risk at Los Pelambres and Centinela. Q1 2026 copper output fell 8% year-on-year on lower processing rates and grades. Management expects quarter-on-quarter recovery, but mine-plan variability (grade, mill availability, weather) is a persistent risk at open-pit operations.
- Water and drought. Central Chile has been in a multi-decade water deficit. Los Pelambres' desalination expansion is still under construction; until it is at full capacity, access to water is a gating item for production.
- Chilean regulatory risk. The 2023 Mining Royalty Act (Law 21.591) imposes a combined ad-valorem and operating-margin charge on large copper producers with an overall maximum tax burden of 46.5%. Future Chilean administrations could tighten this further; permitting timelines in Chile are lengthy.
- Capital-allocation risk. The group is committing $3.4bn of capex in 2026 and multi-year commitments at Centinela. Execution risk, cost overrun risk and schedule slippage are material at this scale; first copper from the Second Concentrator is not due until 2027.
- Related-party concentration. With the Luksic family holding approximately 65% of ordinary shares combined, minority shareholders have limited ability to block transactions. Governance mitigants include the UK Corporate Governance Code, independent NEDs and the premium LSE listing regime.
- Twin Metals political risk. The 16 April 2026 Senate vote unwound the Boundary Waters moratorium, but the resolution remains politically contested and faces legal challenges from environmental groups. Twin Metals is also decades away from first production and requires substantial additional permitting and capital.
- Counterparty and TC/RC risk. Concentrate pricing is net of treatment and refining charges set in smelter negotiations. Smelter over-capacity in China has put downward pressure on TC/RCs but the direction can reverse.
- Currency translation. Reporting is in USD; UK investors are exposed to GBP/USD movements in the dividend and share price.
11. Recent Developments
- 16 April 2026 — Q1 2026 production report. Copper output 143kt (−8% YoY); gold 46.5koz (+8% YoY); molybdenum 3.0kt. Net cash costs $1.08/lb (−30% YoY) on higher by-product credits. Full-year guidance unchanged: 650–700kt copper, $3.4bn capex, cash costs $2.30–2.50/lb before credits. Management highlighted a fatality-free start to 2026 and reiterated that copper production should rise quarter-on-quarter through 2026.
- 16 April 2026 — US Senate vote (50-49) to overturn the Boundary Waters mining moratorium. The Congressional Review Act resolution removes the 20-year withdrawal of federal land in Minnesota’s Superior National Forest, reviving the pathway for Antofagasta’s wholly-owned Twin Metals Minnesota project. Following earlier House passage, the resolution was sent to President Trump for signature. The Trump administration had already reinstated a 2017 legal opinion in late 2025 that revived Twin Metals’ federal mineral leases.
- 16 April 2026 — ex-dividend date for the 48.0¢ final 2025 dividend.
- 1 April 2026 — PDMR LTIP grants and vestings disclosed; 2023 performance cycle settled at 97.3% of target.
- 1 March 2026 — Andrónico Luksic Lederer appointed Non-Executive Director, following Andrónico Luksic Craig's retirement from the board on 27 January 2026.
- 17 February 2026 — 2025 Full Year Results. Revenue $8.6bn (+30%), EBITDA $5.2bn (+52%), EBITDA margin 60% (record), PBT including exceptionals $3.16bn (+53%), EPS 134.8¢ (+60%), underlying EPS 129.3¢ (+106%). Final dividend 48.0¢, full-year dividend 64.6¢ (+106%).
- 29 January 2026 — Q4 2025 production report. Full-year copper 653.7kt (−2%); gold 211.3koz (+13%); molybdenum up 48% year-on-year; FY net cash cost $1.19/lb (−27%).
- Q4 2025 / January 2026 — Andrónico Luksic Craig retirement announced effective 27 January 2026.
- Late 2025 / early 2026 — Centinela Second Concentrator progress. Project on time and on budget; 2026 capex dominated by this build and Los Pelambres desalination expansion.
- 14 August 2025 — 2025 Half Year Results. H1 revenue $3.8bn (+29%), EBITDA $2.23bn (+60%), margin 58.8%, interim dividend 16.6¢, H1 profit attributable to owners $521.6m (+101%).
12. Key Dates Coming Up
| Event | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Annual General Meeting 2026 | Thursday 7 May 2026, 10:00 | Church House Westminster, Dean's Yard, London SW1P 3NZ |
| FY 2025 final dividend payment | May 2026 (expected) | 48.0¢ per share; ex-div 16 April 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production report | Expected late July 2026 | Typically released in the week of the half-year end reporting window |
| 2026 Half Year Results | Expected mid-August 2026 | H1 2025 results were released 14 August 2025 for comparison |
| Q3 2026 production report | Expected late October 2026 | Q3 2025 report was released 23 October 2025 |
| Q4 2026 production report | Expected late January 2027 | Q4 2025 report was released 29 January 2026 |
| FY 2026 Full Year Results | Expected mid-February 2027 | FY 2025 results released 17 February 2026 |
| Centinela Second Concentrator first copper | 2027 (target) | $4.4bn capex programme board-approved December 2023 |
| Los Pelambres desalination doubling in service | End-2026 (target) | 800 l/s capacity; 400 l/s second-phase 2027 |
Related
- ChartsView live charts
- Economic calendar — UK dividends and reporting dates
- Discuss ANTO on the forum
- ChartsView blog
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. It is compiled from company filings, regulatory news service (RNS) announcements, official US government releases and public industry data. All financial figures are from Antofagasta plc’s published reports. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company. No analyst opinions, price targets or buy/sell ratings are expressed. Your capital is at risk when investing in shares, commodities or any other financial instrument. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Always do your own research and consider speaking to a regulated financial adviser before making an investment decision.