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GKP daily 09/09/13: pre-judgement chart

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Well, after nearly a year since the start of court proceedings and getting on for 3 years since the first announcement of the litigation action the moment has finally arrived.

I'll not pretend for a minute that the chart can foretell the judge's verdict in this matter (though I'm sure will already be in "the know") but let's review it anyway.

The first, and most obvious, feature is that the SP is in a clear upward channel defined by the lower trendline and the steeper of the above 2. The more shallow of those top two trendlines is formed by the previous highs and could be an ascending wedge but we'll have to see about that later. In any event, there is nothing in either the channel or the wedge to suggest direction.

We've previously mentioned the 189/90p level as being a key resistance and, indeed, we saw that a couple of weeks ago. The interesting thing now is that on a reasonably high volume day yesterday the SP also failed to breach that key level and the close at 187.75 (not the figure shown on the chart) has formed a semi-shooting star and this after 3 gaps up. This could be construed as a bearish pattern and a sign of exhaustion of the current trend.

In addition, yesterday the main daily RSI trendline got hit when the SP hit 193p and has so far held which added to the resistance. The 4H chart (and I think the 1H chart too from memory) also had bearish divergent RSI trendlines from this uptrend which also held at resistance yesterday. Again, these are signs of a possible end to the previous uptrend.

Having said that, the MACD histogram has just turned positive (bullish) and stochastic looks strong so there may be a continuance, if only temporary.

Unsurprisingly therefore, the bullish and bearish forces seem to be balanced though if I'm honest (and there was no news in the pipeline so to speak) I would now favour a retrace based on the above chart. As a result I have de-risked and await today's verdict relatively calmly (I have friends and family with significant investments here so I'm thinking about them too).

So, good luck to all, whatever your positions. There is never a way to call these events but there 
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