No surprise that with the latest collapse in the price of physical gold the miners have followed suit. The daily chart on the left shows the bear flag and the subsequent drop in price.Note how there was a nice little backtest which should have been the entry to go short. The problem now is: where next? We have to go back to the monthly chart and 2002 to find the next support which is not far away now at 80p. This could coincide with gold getting down to the important $1156 mark which is also a significant support and should be a good place to go long. Original link...

Clearly, HOIL's last attempt to break out of its downtrend failed but it's having another go today.As before, I'm looking for the RSI to close above its downtrend resistance, preferably before the price actually breaks out. There's still a higher low in play so a breakout ought to follow through if it occurs from here. There was also an inside bar yesterday so there's a few things pointing towards a move here.I'll go long if it closes like this with a stop below the higher low of 127.5p. Original link...

Having broken through 147p and 151p in the last few days, it seems to me that there are now 2 very clear possibilities here and they're polar opposites.On the left we have the bull option showing a truncated 5th wave of wave C (the move down from 260p). Factors supporting this view are the higher low, the trendline from 64p and 87p held again, 147p and 151p got taken out easily and the RSI backtested successfully. The other option (shown left) is quite bearish. This has the rise of the last couple of days as a subwave 2 up of the 5th wave down. This would target the 87p level for the low of wave C and that level has, rather controversially, been mooted before. Projections of the last couple of moves do also point to this level. For me, the key test here will be whether the 141p level...

Since RSI has formed part of the discussion today I thought I'd post a chart showing those details (thanks to Gary for pointing out the RSI breakout backtest).The lowest RSI support goes all the way back to June 2007 where it was at its lowest value. Since then the 4.5p low formed a higher high and a bullish divergence. This same RSI support has come into play only twice since: once at the 87p low and just recently at the 126p low.The top RSI resistance comes from the bearish divergence from when the price made a peak of 320p and then the 450p high. Since then it was hit on the rise to 228p showing that that level was a good place to sell/short. There is another RSI resistance above this which comes from the 2009 131p high and the 450p peak but it's off the top of the chart.Finally...

Nice bounce off the intermediate uptrend support today which should form the bottom of wave 4 of the move up from Nov 2012.EWT has a guideline which says that a wave 4 should not go below the low of wave 4 of one lesser degree. That was at 14444 so this fits nicely. The trendline and 38.2% Fib (of the wave 3 move) came into play perfectly. Original link...