SpaceX fell for a third straight session to close at 148.62, but Thursday's low of 140.66 landed on the 50% retracement of the August–October rally almost to the cent, and buyers stepped in on the heaviest volume since 6 October. The stock is below its 21 and 50-day EMAs; 140.63 is the line that matters.
Daily Chart
SPCX daily chart, 15 October 2026 close — 21/50 EMA, RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), with rising trendlines from the August low. The 200 EMA is not yet plotted because SpaceX has only 87 sessions of history since its June listing. Thursday's 140.66 low tagged the 50% retracement at 140.63.
Trend and Structure
SpaceX opened at 150 on its 12 June debut and spiked to 225.64 within three sessions, then gave back more than half of that to a low of 104.83 on 3 August — below the $135 IPO price. The turn from that low came on very heavy volume, with more than 200 million shares changing hands on several days in early August, and since then the stock has made higher highs at 149.60 (12 August), 158.13 (21 September) and 176.42 (6 October). The pullback from 6 October has now erased about half of that leg. The higher highs are intact, but Thursday's intraday low did dip under the 28 September low at 145.36, so the higher-low sequence is being tested right now. With such a short trading history, the 21 EMA (155.14) and 50 EMA (150.75) are the only moving averages that carry weight, and price closed below both.
Key Levels
The level that matters most is 140.63, the 50% retracement of the 104.83–176.42 rally, which Thursday's low tested and held. Below it, the $135 IPO price, the 61.8% retracement at 132.18 and the 20 August low at 130.39 form the next support zone.
| Type | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 176.42 | 6 October high, top of the current leg |
| Resistance | 167.07 | 12 October lower high |
| Fib 23.6% | 159.52 | Sits just above the 21 September high at 158.13 |
| EMA 21 | 155.14 | Short-term trend line; first level to reclaim |
| EMA 50 | 150.75 | Lost on Thursday's close |
| Fib 38.2% | 149.07 | Price closed just under it |
| Current | 148.62 | Last close |
| Support | 145.36 | 28 September swing low, undercut intraday on Thursday |
| Fib 50% | 140.63 | Thursday's low of 140.66 held here |
| Support | 135.00 | IPO price |
| Fib 61.8% | 132.18 | Lines up with the 20 August low at 130.39 |
Fibonacci levels are drawn from the 3 August low at 104.83 to the 6 October high at 176.42. With fewer than 90 sessions of trading, there is less history behind these levels than on a mature stock, so expect them to be less reliable.
Momentum and Volume
RSI(14) is at 45.29, just under 50 — momentum has cooled from the early-October breakout but is not oversold. MACD is at 2.70 against a signal line of 4.09, a histogram of -1.38: a bearish crossover, but still above the zero line. Volume shows the pullback was lighter than the rally: the 2–6 October push ran on 107 to 136 million shares a day, while 13 and 14 October traded about 69 million. Thursday's 101 million shares, with a long lower wick off the 50% level, is the first sign of buyers returning.
Bull Case
If 140.63 holds, the rally from the August low stays intact. A move back above the 21 EMA at 155.14, followed by a daily close above 159.52, would put the 12 October high at 167.07 and the 176.42 peak back in play. Above 176.42, the next resistance is not until the June post-listing trade in the 185–193 area.
Bear Case
A daily close below 140.63 breaks the 50% level and the trendline from the August low, and points to the 132–135 zone where the IPO price, the 61.8% retracement and the 20 August low meet. Losing 130 would mean the market has given back most of the autumn rally, and the 104.83 post-listing low would come back into view.
Trade Scenarios
| Direction | Trigger | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | Daily close above 159.52 | 147.00 | 167.07, then 176.42 |
| Short | Daily close below 140.63 | 149.10 | 132.18 |
Risk warning: Technical analysis reflects probability, not certainty. Levels are reference points, not signals. Capital at risk. This is educational content, not investment advice.