Nike hit 31.97 on 2 October, its lowest price since 2013, after a five-year slide under a falling trendline from the 2021 high. It has since bounced 21% to close Friday at 38.67, back above the 21 and 50 EMAs, with Friday's high at 39.23 the highest since August. The long downtrend is intact, but the short-term picture has turned up.
Daily Chart
NKE daily chart since mid-2021, 30 October 2026 close — 21/50/200 EMA, RSI(14) with its moving average, MACD(12,26,9), and the falling trendline from the November 2021 high. The trendline, now near 51, has capped every rally for five years.
Trend and Structure
The long view is a steady decline: from about 179 in November 2021, every rally has stopped at or below the falling trendline, which now sits around 51. The 2026 leg took the stock from 68.49 in February to 31.97 on 2 October. October's bounce is the strongest move in months: price is back above the 21 EMA (37.09) and the 50 EMA (37.57), and the 21 is close to crossing above the 50. The 200 EMA (45.56) is still well overhead and falling.
Key Levels
The level that matters most is 39.2–39.3: Friday's high and the 78.6% retracement of the August–October fall. Below, the EMAs at 37.1–37.6 and last week's 36.84 low are the support.
| Type | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Trendline | ~51 | Falling trendline from the 2021 high |
| EMA 200 | 45.56 | Long-term trend, still falling |
| Resistance | 43.20 | 3 August high |
| Resistance | 41.34 | 24 August high, start of the last leg down |
| Fib 78.6% | 39.33 | With Friday's high at 39.23 |
| Current | 38.67 | Last close |
| Fib 61.8% | 37.76 | Retracement of the August–October fall |
| EMA 50 | 37.57 | Medium-term trend, reclaimed |
| EMA 21 | 37.09 | Short-term trend |
| Support | 36.84 | 28 October low |
| Support | 35.16 | 30 September low |
| Support | 31.97 | 2 October low, the lowest since 2013 |
Fibonacci levels are drawn from the 24 August high at 41.34 to the 2 October low at 31.97. The trendline level is approximate and read from the chart.
Momentum and Volume
RSI(14) is at 61.72, above its own average of 56.64. MACD is at 0.47 against a signal line of 0.18, a histogram of +0.28, back above zero. Friday's 27.0 million shares was close to the 20-day average of about 29.9 million.
Bull Case
Price closes above 39.33, clearing the 78.6% level and Friday's high. That opens the August highs at 41.34 and 43.20, with the 200 EMA at 45.56 the bigger test.
Bear Case
The bounce stalls at 39 and price closes below last week's 36.84 low, back under both EMAs. That would point to the 30 September low at 35.16 and a retest of the 31.97 low.
Trade Scenarios
| Direction | Trigger | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | Daily close above 39.33 | 36.80 | 41.34, then 43.20 |
| Short | Daily close below 36.84 | 39.50 | 35.16, then 31.97 |
Risk warning: Technical analysis reflects probability, not certainty. Levels are reference points, not signals. Capital at risk. This is educational content, not investment advice.