NIKE, Inc. (NKE) — Company Research
Last Updated: 3 November 2026
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, selling Nike, Jordan and Converse products through wholesale partners and its own NIKE Direct stores and apps. FY2026 (year to 31 May 2026) revenue was flat at $46,398m, and GAAP EPS of $2.10 included a one-off $986m benefit from expected refunds of IEEPA tariffs. On 01 Oct 2026 Nike reported Q1 FY2027 revenue down 4% to $11,213m, guided FY2027 revenue down by a high-single-digit percentage and launched "Pace", a restructuring programme targeting about $2.5bn of savings through FY2031. The shares hit a 52-week low of $31.97 the next day. This refresh uses Nike's own releases and SEC filings, ahead of the 16–17 Nov 2026 Investor Day.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | NIKE, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | NKE / NYSE |
| Sector | Consumer discretionary (athletic footwear and apparel) |
| CEO / Leadership | Elliott Hill (President & CEO since Oct 2024); David Denton (EVP & CFO from 17 Aug 2026); Mark Parker (Executive Chairman) |
| Employees | About 73,000 worldwide at 31 May 2026, including retail and part-time staff (FY2026 10-K) |
| Fiscal year end | 31 May |
| Revenue (FY2026) | $46,398m (+0.2%; −2% currency-neutral) |
| Net income (FY2026) | $3,108m (−3%); GAAP diluted EPS $2.10 |
| Latest quarter (Q1 FY2027) | Revenue $11,213m (−4%); GAAP EPS $0.48; gross margin 42.8% |
| Market cap | ~$58.1bn ($39.12 close on 02 Nov 2026 × ~1,485m Class A and B shares) |
| Dividend | $0.41 per quarter ($1.64 annualised) |
2. Investment Thesis: Bull vs Bear
Bull Case
- Running is back: Running grew by double digits for five straight quarters to Q4 FY2026, adding about $1bn of revenue and five points of share in Western Europe and North America, and grew double digits again in Q1 FY2027, led by Vomero, Pegasus and the new Alphafly 4 and NIKE Apex.
- Wholesale rebuild working in North America: North America revenue rose 5% in FY2026 to $20,511m and North America wholesale grew 9% in Q1 FY2027 as Nike re-engaged retail partners and refreshed more than 15,000 spaces in their stores.
- Strong balance sheet: Cash and short-term investments of $8,368m at 31 Aug 2026 exceed total debt of $7,893m, and Nike holds A+ (S&P) and A2 (Moody's) credit ratings.
- Pace savings programme: Pace targets about $2.5bn of cumulative savings through FY2031, with most of them landing in FY2029–FY2030, and moves Nike to three geographies in FY2028.
- Football tailwind: World Cup 2026 team kit sales doubled versus 2022, and football grew strong double digits in all four geographies in Q1 FY2027.
Bear Case
- Revenue still shrinking: FY2027 revenue is guided down by a high-single-digit percentage after flat FY2026 and a 9.8% fall in FY2025, with EBIT guided to fall faster than revenue.
- China in sharp decline: Greater China revenue fell 26% currency-neutral in Q1 FY2027 and Greater China EBIT fell 34% to $248m, and management assumes China gets worse for the rest of the year.
- Dividend not covered by earnings: The $1.64 annual dividend is above the $1.15–$1.35 FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance range.
- Lifestyle franchises shrinking: Sportswear fell by low double digits and Jordan by mid-teens in Q1 FY2027 as Nike cut Dunk and Jordan Retro volumes, while Converse fell 28%.
- Management churn: The CFO and Chief Accounting Officer both changed in 2026, and Pace is Nike's third restructuring since FY2024.
3. Business Segments
Nike reports the Nike Brand by geography, plus Converse. The split below uses FY2026 revenue of $46,398m from the Q4 FY2026 release.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| North America | 44.2% ($20,511m) | Nike and Jordan footwear, apparel and equipment sold in the US and Canada through wholesale and NIKE Direct; +5% in FY2026. |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) | 27.1% ($12,572m) | Nike Brand sales across Europe, the Middle East and Africa; +3% reported, −3% currency-neutral. |
| Asia Pacific & Latin America (APLA) | 13.5% ($6,243m) | Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, Australia, India and Latin America; flat in FY2026. |
| Greater China | 12.6% ($5,847m) | Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan; −11% reported, −13% currency-neutral. |
| Converse | 2.5% ($1,174m) | Chuck Taylor and other Converse lifestyle sneakers and apparel; −31% in FY2026. |
| Global Brand Divisions & Corporate | 0.1% ($51m) | Licensing and other central items. |
By product, Nike Brand footwear was $29,525m (63.6% of group revenue), apparel $13,449m (29.0%) and equipment $2,199m (4.7%). Jordan Brand revenue was $7,034m (15.2%). By channel, wholesale was about $27.5bn (+6%) and NIKE Direct $17.7bn (−6%).
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. Nike designs and markets products made by independent contract factories, mainly in Vietnam, Indonesia and China, and sells them to retailers (wholesale, about 59% of FY2026 revenue) and directly to consumers through its own stores and digital apps. About 56% of revenue comes from outside the US.
Brand and athlete scale. Nike's moat is its brand, its roster of athletes, teams and federations, and its marketing budget. The women's signature basketball business grew nearly 500% between FY2022 and FY2026, and Caitlin Clark's Caitlin 1 launched in 5,000 doors on 01 Oct 2026.
The reset under way. Under Elliott Hill's "Sport Offense", Nike is rebuilding wholesale relationships, reducing discounting on its own digital channels (Nike Digital fell 12% in FY2026), cutting the supply of older lifestyle franchises such as Dunk and Jordan Retro, and leaning on new performance products in running, training and football.
5. Financial Health
Annual figures come from Nike's 10-K filings (SEC XBRL) and fourth-quarter earnings releases. Nike's fiscal year ends 31 May.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $46,710m | +4.9% | $3.75 | $3.75† | $1.19 | $9,420m |
| FY2023 | $51,217m | +9.6% | $3.23 | $3.23† | $1.325 | $8,927m |
| FY2024 | $51,362m | +0.3% | $3.73 | $3.95 | $1.45 | $8,903m |
| FY2025 | $46,309m | −9.8% | $2.16 | $2.16† | $1.57 | $7,961m |
| FY2026 | $46,398m | +0.2% | $2.10 | $1.58‡ | $1.63 | $7,942m |
† Nike did not report an adjusted EPS figure for this year, so GAAP EPS is repeated. FY2024 adjusted EPS excludes $0.22 of restructuring charges. ‡ FY2026 EPS excluding the $0.52-per-share IEEPA tariff-recovery benefit, as stated by Nike on its Q4 FY2026 call. Long-term debt is the year-end total including the current portion ($2,000m at FY2026 year end, $500m at FY2022, $1,000m at FY2024).
Quarterly results, most recent first.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 (to 31 Aug 2026) | $11,213m | $0.48† | $0.48 |
| Q4 FY2026 (to 31 May 2026) | $10,972m | $0.20‡ | $0.72 |
| Q3 FY2026 (to 28 Feb 2026) | $11,279m | $0.35† | $0.35 |
| Q2 FY2026 (to 30 Nov 2025) | $12,427m | $0.53† | $0.53 |
| Q1 FY2026 (to 31 Aug 2025) | $11,720m | $0.49† | $0.49 |
| FY2026 total | $46,398m | $1.58‡ | $2.10 |
† No adjusted figure reported; GAAP repeated. ‡ Excludes the IEEPA tariff-recovery benefit booked in Q4 FY2026.
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2026 operating cash flow was $2,868m (FY2025: $3,698m) and capital expenditure $684m, giving free cash flow of $2,184m; depreciation and amortisation was $747m. FY2026 EBIT was $3,850m (8.3% margin) and dividends paid were $2,407m. In Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow was $135m and capex $199m. At 31 Aug 2026 Nike held $6,903m of cash and $1,465m of short-term investments against $2,000m of current long-term debt and $5,893m of long-term debt; inventories were $7,846m (−3%). Of the $986m tariff refund receivable, $302m had been received by 31 May 2026 and substantially all of the rest after year end. Follow the shares on ChartsView Live Charts.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, November 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$58.1bn ($39.12 close on 02 Nov 2026 × 1,485.3m Class A and B shares at 28 Sep 2026) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~18.8x ($39.12 / TTM GAAP EPS $2.08, Q2 FY2026 to Q1 FY2027). Excluding the $0.52 tariff-recovery benefit, TTM EPS is ~$1.56 and the multiple ~25.1x. |
| P/E (forward) | ~31.3x ($39.12 / $1.25, the midpoint of Nike's FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.15–$1.35) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~1.27x (~$58.1bn / TTM revenue $45,891m) |
| Enterprise value | ~$57.6bn (market cap ~$58.1bn + total debt ~$7.9bn [current $2,000m + long-term $5,893m] − cash and short-term investments ~$8.4bn [$6,903m + $1,465m], per 31 Aug 2026 balance sheet) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~12.5x on FY2026 (EV ~$57.6bn / EBITDA ~$4.6bn; EBITDA = FY2026 EBIT $3,850m + D&A $747m). Excluding the $986m tariff-recovery benefit, EBITDA is ~$3.6bn and the multiple ~16.0x. |
| P/FCF | ~26.6x (~$58.1bn / FY2026 FCF ~$2.18bn; FCF = operating CF $2,868m − capex $684m per FY2026 cash flow statement). On TTM FCF of ~$2.11bn it is ~27.6x. |
| Dividend yield | ~4.2% ($1.64 annualised / $39.12) |
| 52-week high | $69.14 (12 Dec 2025) |
| 52-week low | $31.97 (02 Oct 2026, intraday) |
| Short interest (% of float) | 7.06% (103.69m shares, settlement 15 Oct 2026, MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | 1.9 |
7. What Are They Building
- Pace restructuring: Announced 01 Oct 2026, Pace targets about $2.5bn of cumulative savings through FY2031 for about $1.0bn of pre-tax charges (about $0.3bn in FY2027), and includes supply-chain modernisation, a new campus in India and a move to three geographies (Americas, APGC and EMEA) in FY2028.
- Running pipeline: Pegasus Plus 2 (Aug 2026), Alphafly 4 (Sep 2026), the Swooshfly entry-level racer and the NIKE Apex super shoe. Nike says it has nearly tripled its share of max-cushioning running over the past year.
- Training and recovery: Nike Mind, the NIKE Hybrid Footwear System and the Hyperslide made with Hyperice.
- NikeSKIMS: The women's line with SKIMS launched its Spring '26 collection on 05 Feb 2026 and added gym pieces and footwear on 12 Mar 2026.
- Women's basketball: The Caitlin 1, Nike's largest women's signature launch, went on sale globally on 01 Oct 2026.
- Marketplace reset: Fewer Jordan Retro launches to restore scarcity, a China digital clean-up centred on the official Tmall, JD and Douyin stores, and a plan to elevate half of Nike's own store fleet by the end of FY2027.
- New markets: The Vegam Run, Nike's first running shoe built for India, went on sale on 01 Nov 2026 at ₹3,795, with other markets planned for 2027.
8. Peer Comparison
| Peer | Market cap (Nov 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| adidas (ADS, Xetra) | ~€30.1bn | FY2025 revenue €24,811m, a record; operating margin 8.3% (company release, 29 Jan 2026) |
| ANTA Sports (2020, Hong Kong) | ~HK$218.7bn | FY2025 revenue RMB 80,219m (+13.3%) (annual results, HKEX) |
| Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | ~$11.9bn | FY2025 revenue $11.1bn (+5%) (year to 01 Feb 2026, company release) |
| On Holding (ONON) | ~$11.9bn | FY2025 net sales CHF 3,014.0m (+30.0%) (company release) |
| Deckers Outdoor (DECK) | ~$11.4bn | FY2026 net sales $5,472m (+9.8%), HOKA $2,587m (year to 31 Mar 2026, 10-K) |
| PUMA (PUM, Xetra) | ~€4.0bn | FY2025 sales €7,296.2m (−8.1% currency-adjusted); EBIT −€357.2m (company release, 26 Feb 2026) |
Market caps at 2–3 Nov 2026. Skechers is no longer listed: 3G Capital completed its takeover and the shares stopped trading on 12 Sep 2025.
9. Insider Activity
CEO Elliott Hill bought about $1.0m of Nike shares in the open market on 13 Apr 2026, alongside purchases by directors Tim Cook, Robert Swan and John Rogers Jr. No insider purchases have been filed since April. Later sales by executives were mostly small and under 10b5-1 plans. Open-market transactions from Form 4 filings:
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venkatesh Alagirisamy (EVP, COO) | 09 Sep 2026 | Sale | 3,671 | $37.59 | ~$0.14m | 10b5-1 |
| Rob Leinwand (EVP, Chief Legal Officer) | 09 Sep 2026 | Sale | 3,646 | $37.59 | ~$0.14m | 10b5-1 |
| Amy Montagne (President, NIKE) | 07 Aug 2026 | Sale | 4,867 | $42.05 | ~$0.20m | Not under a 10b5-1 plan |
| Phil McCartney (EVP, Chief Innovation, Product & Design Officer) | 12 Jun 2026 | Sale | 17,398 | $46.18 | ~$0.80m | 10b5-1 |
| Elliott Hill (President & CEO) | 13 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 23,660 | $42.27 | ~$1.00m | Open market, not a plan |
| Tim Cook (Director) | 10 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 25,000 | $42.43 | ~$1.06m | Open market, not a plan |
| John Rogers Jr. (Director) | 09 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 4,000 | $43.34 | ~$0.17m | Open market, not a plan |
| Robert Swan (Director) | 07 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 11,781 | $42.44 | ~$0.50m | Open market, not a plan |
| Rob Leinwand (EVP, Chief Legal Officer) | 12 Feb 2026 | Sale | 9,065 | $62.33 | ~$0.57m | 10b5-1 |
Annual equity awards were granted on 01 Sep 2026, including 108,400 shares and 395,570 options to Elliott Hill and 71,234 shares and 259,946 options to new CFO David Denton.
10. Key Risks
- Tariffs and trade (Regulatory): Nike sources most footwear from Vietnam (about 52%), Indonesia (27%) and China (16%). Replacement US tariffs after the 20 Feb 2026 Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs could raise costs again, and a consumer class action (Caldwell v. Nike) over tariff-linked price rises is pending.
- Greater China (Commercial): Revenue fell 26% currency-neutral in Q1 FY2027, and Nike says the digital clean-up there will take multiple seasons.
- Demand and brand momentum (Commercial): FY2027 revenue is guided down by a high-single-digit percentage, with Sportswear, Jordan and Converse all shrinking and athlete departures such as Kylian Mbappé's move to On on 18 Sep 2026.
- Restructuring execution (Operational): Pace carries about $1.0bn of charges, most savings arrive only in FY2029–FY2030, and it follows two earlier restructurings plus 2026 changes of CFO and Chief Accounting Officer.
- Wholesale partner health (Commercial): Nike's wholesale-led recovery depends on retailers such as Foot Locker, which are exposed to the deliberate cut in Jordan Retro supply.
- Dividend coverage (Financial): The $1.64 annual dividend exceeds FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.15–$1.35, and FY2026 dividends paid of $2,407m were larger than free cash flow of $2,184m.
- Customs and litigation (Legal): Belgian Customs claims Nike underpaid duties on imports since FY2018. Nike cannot estimate the loss and says an adverse outcome could be material.
11. Recent Developments
- 01 Nov 2026 — Vegam Run goes on sale in India. Nike's first running shoe designed for Indian runners launched on Flipkart at ₹3,795, with other markets to follow in 2027.
- 23 Oct 2026 — Investor Day confirmed. Nike announced the webcast for its 16–17 Nov 2026 Investor Day, where it will set out a five-year financial framework and more detail on Pace.
- 02 Oct 2026 — Shares hit 52-week low. The stock touched $31.97 intraday the day after Q1 results.
- 01 Oct 2026 — Q1 FY2027 results and Pace. Revenue fell 4% to $11,213m and GAAP EPS was $0.48, with gross margin up 60bp to 42.8%. Nike guided FY2027 revenue down a high-single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35, and announced the Pace restructuring.
- 01 Oct 2026 — Caitlin 1 launches. Caitlin Clark's signature shoe went on sale in 5,000 doors, Nike's largest women's signature launch.
- 18 Sep 2026 — Mbappé leaves Nike. Kylian Mbappé ended a partnership of about 20 years and signed with On.
- 15 Sep 2026 — Alexandre Arnault joins the board. The Moët Hennessy deputy CEO became Nike's 12th director.
- 04 Sep 2026 — Removed from the S&P 100; CFO handover complete. S&P Dow Jones Indices said Nike would leave the S&P 100 from 21 Sep 2026 (it stays in the S&P 500). Former CFO Matthew Friend left the company the same day.
12. Key Dates
- 16 Nov 2026 — Investor Day begins (16–17 Nov), with the main webcast on 17 Nov from about 8:30am PT
- Expected 17 Dec 2026 — Q2 FY2027 results (estimated date; not yet confirmed by Nike)
- TBC — Next quarterly dividend declaration (the last, $0.41 a share, was declared on 06 Aug 2026 and paid on 01 Oct 2026)
- Expected Mar 2027 — Q3 FY2027 results
- Expected Jun 2027 — Q4 and full-year FY2027 results
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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Nike designs athletic footwear, apparel and equipment made by contract factories and sells them through wholesale partners (about 59% of FY2026 revenue) and its own NIKE Direct stores and apps. FY2026 revenue was flat at $46,398m and GAAP EPS fell to $2.10, a figure that included a $0.52-per-share tariff-refund benefit. Management guides FY2027 revenue down by a high-single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35. The near-term catalyst is the 16–17 Nov 2026 Investor Day, where Nike will set out a five-year financial framework and more detail on its $2.5bn Pace savings programme.
What would confirm or break it. The case would be confirmed by continued double-digit growth in running, a stabilising Greater China and Pace savings arriving on schedule. It would be undermined by a deeper revenue decline, renewed tariff costs, further weakness in China, Jordan and Converse, or earnings that leave the $1.64 dividend uncovered for longer.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ2 FY2027 earnings (expected) (44 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Running is back:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Greater China (Commercial):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 3 Nov 2026.
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