Intel Corporation (INTC) — Company Research

Last Updated: 01 Nov 2026

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) designs and manufactures x86 processors for PCs and data centres and is building Intel Foundry into a contract chip manufacturer for outside customers. FY2025 revenue was $52.9bn, flat on FY2024, with a small GAAP loss per share of $(0.06) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42. 2026 has brought a sharp change in the data-centre business: Q3 2026 revenue rose 21% to $16.5bn, data-centre (DCAI) revenue rose 78% and non-GAAP EPS was $0.52. But on 30 Oct 2026 the shares fell 28.6% to $65.76, after Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15.0–16.0bn, said 2027 would be an investment year without positive free cash flow, and set out the cost of a fatal explosion at its Fab 28 plant in Israel. Since the last version of this report (17 Jun 2026) Intel has also raised about $23bn in its first public share offering since 1971 and agreed to buy quantum software company Classiq. All figures come from Intel’s earnings releases and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Data-centre demand surging: DCAI revenue rose 78% to $7.32bn in Q3 2026 with $3.04bn of operating income, and Intel guided DCAI up by a mid-teens percentage again in Q4.
• Foundry revenue scaling: Intel Foundry revenue rose 58% to $6.70bn in Q3 2026, and the 18A process is in high-volume manufacturing in Arizona and Oregon.
• Large cash buffer: Cash and short-term investments were ~$54.0bn at 26 Sep 2026 after the ~$23bn share offering in Aug 2026, and the revolving credit facility was raised to $15bn.
• Strategic backers: The US government owns ~9.9% after its Aug 2025 investment, Nvidia invested $5bn and SoftBank $2bn, and Oracle announced a multiyear Xeon collaboration on 27 Oct 2026.
• Earnings recovering on a non-GAAP basis: Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.52 compared with $0.23 a year earlier and was above Intel’s own $0.38 guidance.

Bear Case

• Weak Q4 outlook and Fab 28 disruption: Q4 2026 guidance of $15.0–16.0bn revenue and 38.0% non-GAAP gross margin includes ~$300m of lost revenue from the 14 Oct 2026 Fab 28 explosion, with a similar hit expected in Q1 2027.
• PC business shrinking: Client (CCPG) revenue fell 5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down more than 20% sequentially in Q4, with the CFO expecting weakness at least through H1 2027.
• Foundry still loss-making: Intel Foundry lost $1.85bn at the operating level in Q3 2026 and $10.3bn in FY2025, and external foundry revenue was only $411m in Q3. No large 14A customer has been announced.
• No positive free cash flow expected in 2027: Management called 2027 an investment year with rising capex, after gross capex of ~$15.9bn in the four quarters to Sep 2026.
• Share loss and dilution: Mercury Research put Intel’s x86 share at 65.9% in Q2 2026, down from 70.6% a year earlier, and shares outstanding rose from 4,994m to 5,315m during 2026.

3. Business Segments

Intel reports Intel Products (CCPG and DCAI), Intel Foundry and All Other. Most Foundry revenue is wafer sales to Intel Products, which are eliminated on consolidation, so percentages below use Q3 2026 external revenue of $16,513m. Altera was deconsolidated after Intel sold 51% to Silver Lake on 12 Sep 2025.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Intel sells x86 processors to PC makers and to cloud, enterprise and government data-centre buyers, and it manufactures most of those chips itself. Intel Foundry charges Intel Products for wafers and is trying to win outside customers on the 18A and 14A processes and in advanced packaging. Q3 2026 non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%.

Where the moat comes from. The x86 software ecosystem and Intel’s installed base in PCs and servers keep it as the largest x86 supplier. It is also the only US-headquartered company running leading-edge logic manufacturing at scale, which has brought CHIPS Act support, a US government shareholding and investments from Nvidia and SoftBank.

Why it is fragile. AMD has taken PC and server share, Arm designs are growing in data centres, and TSMC leads in contract manufacturing. Rebuilding the foundry needs heavy capex for years and depends on winning external customers, which Intel has said it must secure before fully committing to 14A.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Intel’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Adjusted EPS is Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. Long-term debt is the non-current amount on the year-end balance sheet. Dividends are declared per share.

FY2021 growth is against FY2020 revenue of $77,867m. † FY2022 non-GAAP EPS as originally reported; Intel restated it to $1.67 when it moved to a fixed long-term tax rate in 2023, so non-GAAP EPS is not on one basis across all years. FY2024 GAAP EPS includes large impairment, restructuring and tax valuation allowance charges.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

GAAP EPS in 2026 has been moved by large non-cash items: a $12,529m mark-to-market loss on shares held in escrow for the US government in Q2, a $1,005m gain on the same shares in Q3, and $4,070m of restructuring and other charges in Q1, mostly a $3.9bn Mobileye goodwill impairment. Over the four quarters to 26 Sep 2026, revenue was $59,892m, GAAP EPS ~$(2.41) and non-GAAP EPS ~$1.38.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL data and Intel’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $9,697m in FY2025; $13,184m in the nine months to 26 Sep 2026; $17,472m trailing twelve months.
• Capital expenditure: additions to property, plant and equipment in investing activities were $14,646m in FY2025 and $10,216m in the nine months to 26 Sep 2026, $13,704m trailing twelve months. Intel’s own gross capex measure, which adds capex funded through financing arrangements, was $17,672m in FY2025 and ~$15,855m trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $11,706m in FY2025 (depreciation $10,757m plus intangible amortisation $949m); $12,619m trailing twelve months.
• Operating income: GAAP operating loss of $(2,214)m in FY2025; GAAP operating income of $1,762m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 26 Sep 2026: short-term debt $3,817m and long-term debt $46,317m, $50,134m in total.
• Cash at 26 Sep 2026: cash and equivalents $21,846m plus short-term investments $32,159m, $54,005m in total.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Intel is spending on new process nodes, server and PC products, AI accelerators, packaging and US fabs.

• Intel 18A and 18A-P: 18A is in high-volume manufacturing in Arizona (Fab 52) and Oregon. 18A-P entered risk production in Q2 2026, and Intel says Nova Lake, its first 18A-P client processor, is tracking ahead of schedule, with details due at CES 2027.
• Intel 14A: The 0.9 process design kit was released in Oct 2026. Intel had said it expected customer decisions on 14A in H2 2026; none had been announced by 1 Nov 2026. Coral Rapids server chips on 14A are planned for 2028.
• Server processors: Clearwater Forest (Xeon 6+, up to 288 efficient cores), the first 18A server chip, launched around 01 Jun 2026 and is shipping for revenue. Granite Rapids on Intel 3 is now the largest server family, and Diamond Rapids is sampling for 2027. Some Oregon capacity is being moved from Panther Lake to Intel 3 to build more server wafers.
• PC processors: Panther Lake (Core Ultra Series 3) on 18A launched at CES on 05 Jan 2026. Intel says its gross margins are still below the corporate average.
• AI accelerators: The Intel GPU D-series inference chip (formerly Crescent Island) was detailed at OCP 2026.
• Packaging and fabs: Intel is working with Lens Technology on glass substrates, began installing tools at Fab 62 in Arizona in Oct 2026 for operation in 2028, and put up the first roof truss at Ohio One, where Intel’s timeline is 2030–31 for the first module.
• Quantum software: Intel agreed on 26 Oct 2026 to buy Classiq, with closing expected in H1 2027.

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8. Competitive Landscape

Intel competes with x86 rival AMD, AI chip leader Nvidia, Arm-based designs and contract manufacturers TSMC and Samsung. Market caps are 30 Oct 2026 closing values (Yahoo Finance; Samsung from CompaniesMarketCap). Metrics come from each company’s latest full-year results.

Mercury Research estimated that AMD held 34.1% of x86 processor shipments in Q2 2026 and 34.5% of server units, against Intel’s 65.9% and 65.5%.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Lip-Bu Tan is CEO and David Zinsner is CFO. Dr Craig H. Barratt became Chair at the 13 May 2026 annual meeting when Frank Yeary retired. Tan bought ~$10.0m of shares in the Aug 2026 public offering. Form 4 filings in 2026 show the purchases and sales below; grants and shares withheld for tax are not listed, and no Form 4 filings were found for Sep or Oct 2026.

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10. Key Risks

• PC downturn (Market): Client revenue fell 5% in Q3 2026 and is guided down more than 20% sequentially in Q4, with memory costs and supply weighing on PC demand at least through H1 2027.
• Share loss to AMD and Arm (Market): Intel’s x86 share fell to 65.9% in Q2 2026 from 70.6% a year earlier, and AMD’s EPYC held 46.4% against Xeon on a like-for-like server basis.
• Foundry execution and customers (Operational): Intel Foundry lost $1.85bn in Q3 2026 and external revenue was $411m. Intel’s own risk factors link 14A investment to winning outside commitments.
• Israel operations (Operational): The 14 Oct 2026 Fab 28 explosion killed two workers, shut the fab for about two weeks and is expected to cost ~$600m of revenue across Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. Middle East conflict risk was also cited in the Mobileye impairment.
• Supply constraints (Operational): Intel says wafer and substrate shortages will limit data-centre shipments into H1 2027.
• Cash burn and capex (Financial): Management does not expect positive free cash flow in 2027, as capex and purchase commitments rise. Total debt was $50.1bn at 26 Sep 2026.
• Dilution and earnings volatility (Financial): Shares outstanding rose ~6% in 2026, and mark-to-market moves on shares held in escrow for the US government swung GAAP results by $12.5bn in Q2 and $1.0bn in Q3.
• Further impairments (Financial): Intel booked a $3.9bn Mobileye goodwill impairment in Q1 2026 and said a 1% higher discount rate would have added ~$682m.

11. Recent Developments

• 30 Oct 2026 — Shares fall 28.6%. INTC closed at $65.76, down from $92.07, on volume of ~454m shares, after the Q3 report and Q4 outlook.
• 29 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 21% to $16.51bn and non-GAAP EPS was $0.52, both above Intel’s guidance. Q4 guidance was $15.0–16.0bn revenue and $0.25 non-GAAP EPS, and management said 2027 will be an investment year with no positive free cash flow expected.
• 27 Oct 2026 — Oracle collaboration. Oracle and Intel announced a multiyear collaboration, including planned OCI instances on Diamond Rapids Xeon processors.
• 26 Oct 2026 — Classiq acquisition agreed. Intel signed a definitive agreement to buy Israeli quantum software company Classiq; the price was not disclosed and closing is expected in H1 2027.
• 21 Oct 2026 — US fab progress. Tool installation began at Fab 62 in Arizona, and the first roof truss was installed at Ohio One.
• 14 Oct 2026 — Fab 28 explosion. An explosion at Intel’s Kiryat Gat site in Israel killed two workers and seriously injured a third. Intel puts the revenue impact at ~$600m across Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, mostly Intel 7 server products.
• 12 Aug 2026 — Share offering closed. Intel completed a ~$23bn common stock offering at $95 per share, including the full over-allotment, with net proceeds of $22,617m. It was Intel’s first public share offering since its 1971 IPO.

Macro data that move chip stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 03 Nov 2026 — AMD Q3 2026 results, a read-across for PC and server demand
• Expected 21 Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced by Intel; FY2025 results were released on 22 Jan 2026)
• Expected Jan 2027 — Nova Lake details at CES 2027
• Expected H1 2027 — completion of the Classiq acquisition; Fab 28 revenue impact of ~$300m in Q1 2027
• Expected 2027 — Diamond Rapids Xeon launch
• Expected 2028 — Fab 62 in Arizona begins operation; Coral Rapids on Intel 14A

Intel has not yet confirmed its Q4 2026 results date or its 2027 annual meeting date.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.