DOW

Thanks for sharing that WS.

I've got a slightly alternative count for your more bullish scenario:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly29_12_13.png

Only difference is how I've interpreted the recent sideways waves but very similar nonetheless.

I came to this count having completely started from scratch by looking at the monthly chart after quite a while of not reviewing counts at all so it's as objective as I can be. My alt count is your primary one so caution suggests follow that for now and see where we go.

The 100% extension of Primary I comes in at 16795 but SPX smashed that recently (1778) and the successful backtest of it caused last week's massive candle.

Incidentally (and I don't think this will actually happen but you never know!), the 161.8% extension of Primary I comes in at 20769....

Happy New Year everyone!

Its been a while since i posted an update on Dow, was not much to say really apart from providing day to day views on Chat, my view has always been up up n away and not much has changed since my last post(s).

So as we end 2013 and enter 2014, what's in store for this market ? do i hear/see a bubble expanding and substantial new highs to come ? The Bull market extends 2015/2016 but within that time frame there will be a significant correction approx ~2000/3000 pips on the Dow, followed by new highs to complete the bull market (pri IV & V), we are still in Primary III (parabolic).

My Personal objective as a minimum next year and possibly into 2015/6 is ~10000 Dow pips on swing basis, intra-day trading will add more coin to it


and here is how i see it coming for now - these are just projections and more accurate price points can be determined near the time based on time and price action etc. i'll monitor and adjust. the chart posted contains 2 counts a primary and alternative - both Bully.

Pri III Target = ~17600 or 18200/18283
Pri IV Target = ~15289
Pri V Target = 19261 or 21965



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_weekly_29thDec2013.JPG

All imho, dyor.

rgds,

WS - bully going into 2014

WaveSurfer wrote: i think its time to revisit this post from back in Mar 13 (when Dow was breaking out of its all time highs from 2007) and provide an update on the chart.

The breakout was indeed powerful, where to next and what will happen thereafter, maybe the devil is in the detail and scattered in the past to forecast the future.... just something to think about, we could be in going into blue sky territory and upper targets are becoming much harder, i would not discount the bull extending either..there is wave count to support it, we'll just have to see if another breakout and confirmation of it takes place or not.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Breakouts.JPG

The market floods you with many tools and indicators but more often than not simplicity is the best policy.

all imho, dyor etc...

rgds,

WS (a Bull until the market say's it's not)

WaveSurfer wrote: Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder

Possible 123 low formation??? This is based on the hourly chart.
Long above 15798 with stop below the 2 point . This is during market hours only.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowhourly13thdec.png

PPS Remember that fractal I showed you? It also had a false breakout of the channel before dropping back to about half way up the channel and then a massive breakout. Could we be on for the same?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/dowfractal.png

PS The 3 waves down to 703 could also just be wave A of int ii (assuming it was a low). I'd normally expect a wave 2 to go deeper than this has so far.

I'd love it to drop to that trendline by Dec 27th as it coincides with the 61 fib at 15275 on that date and would be a great place to buy for a Happy New Year )

Ha ha! Thanks remo - don't blame you for not wanting to field questions on waves!

We've been looking at some wave options in the chatroom and wave int ii of major 5 of primary 3 seems to be the most likey.

A close above 15790 might also be enough as that should rule out the possibility of a 5 wave down move (since it would overlap the possible wave 1 down).

All fun and games!