DOW

Nice hammer on the dow...This is on the weekly chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow10thfeb2014.png
If the price comes down halfway down the hammer worth a long with stops below. Less risk this way..
some may buy on the breach of the hammer high but more risk this way. Both ways require the stop to be below the hammer..

The last 3 post shows the Perfect example of a first attempt trade and why its important not to attempt a second attempt on the same day.
The dow smashed through the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb20142.png

Free trade..
Dont short at the same level again as the first attempt worked perfectly.
To dangerous on the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2011.png

Tactical short possible???
Im going to short the dow on a first attempt of 15703 with a 40 point stop.
This level was the breakout point.
This is for a quick day trade so only for the watchers.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2014.png

If you consider corrective waves come in sequences of 3,7,11,15,19 etc; this current sequence contains only 5 waves so far, meaning at least 2 more to come?.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...Cash%20%28day%29.png
I've drawn a trend line from the start of wave (( c )) at 10,402.20, and it coincides nicely with the supports around 14,760 > 14716. So, it's down for me

Possible short on that back test of that trend line is a good bet for the short term
That trend line tried to give it support but the fact that it did not bounce fast from that area was the signal that there were a lot of bears trying to push this lower.The first attempts normally would bounce hard and fast so once this gets tested and it does not bounce fast then that normally gives the first warning signals to get out .First attempts if good should bounce hard .
I have that trend line back test at 15518 for today and a 40 point stop should be used.
stops are a must on the dow.
There is another method i use to enter on short or longs..If the candle is a massive bearish candle like yesterdays candle then i would look to short on any pull backs on the following day if the price comes half way up that bearish candle. This level for today is roughly at 15532 so adds to the trendline play as well.
good luck



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thfeb2014.png

Jackozy wrote: Yep - it tried for about an hour to hang on to that trendline at 15514 but the re-surfacing of a possible US debt default put paid to that.

Possible short on backtest of that trendline, or wait for an hourly 123-low to go long for a Major wave B bounce (I'm now re-labelling 16588 as Primary III as it's hard to see it as anything else now).

14720 must hold for P IV low to maintain the wave 4 guideline (not a rule) and there are multiple supports for about 400 pts above that so hard to know which will give the bounce.

I agree sidelines is best unless you're a skilled Dow trader.

That backtest of the 16240 break would have been a great place to short!