DOW

I was asked recently about the Big Picture looking ahead on the US indices. This is something many of us are gearing up for but timescales remain uncertain.

Sooner or later the bull run from 2009 lows will end and that ought to conclude Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 3. That should bring quite a crash in the form of Cycle 2 to be followed then by wat should be the strongest bull market for decades if not centuries in the form of Cycle Wave 3 of Supercycle Wave 3. The chart up to the end of Cycle 2 ought to go something like this:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowcyclewaves26_04_14.png

There's no panic yet but we're also nearing the top of what should be Primary 3 of Cycle 1 so a choppy and volatile second half of 2014 may be due.

Just something to watch.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Having looked at this in the cold light of a non-trading day, I've come to this conclusion: we are at a crunch support/resistance level. If price breaks thru here it will head to a minimum of 17,370, with obviously, a few stutters in between, to form the completion of wave (( v )) / C; there could well be extensions thereafter. Failure here, and more importantly 15,987, and we will be heading south again for more consolidation.

Ultimately, when this wave that started way back at 10,402 does complete, we will be looking at a sizable correction......

Yes Remo - it's approaching a very interesting area in the 15790-15800 region which I've been looking forward to for ages (those on chat will know lol!):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily12_04_14.png

There's been an awful lot of price action in those 10 points and the 61.8% Fib is not far away either so plenty of support around there.

Interestingly, SPX has been more bearish of late so it's roughly back in line with Dow after leading for quite some time. In fact, at 1814/5, it's a little ahead in this drop as its equivalent trendline is at 1800, only 15 pips away compared to Dow which is 230 or so away (a usual 9:1 ratio gives a relative difference of c. 100 pts) so it'll be interesting to see which way they go.

If it does bounce and our wave counts are right it could be quite a move

The dow has moved back down hard this week from that resistance area.
This now is approaching the trend line(minor) which i will be going long on a first attempt basis.
The trend line is currently at 15795 so i will be going long at 15800 with a 40 point stop.Obviously the trend line changes daily so i will be changing my level daily as well.. This trade is the patient trade im always on about
good luck

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow12thapril2014.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

According to my chart this should make, at least, 16,705, and very probably 17,154 > 17,431 before any significant pull-back. If this is a wave 5 it would be quite normal to expect a 1.618% extension of wave 4 to complete the wave. This would put us at 17,371, slap bang in the middle of my target area, and would therefore be my favorite.

My chart may be incorrect but, I see the current sideways movement as a little stutter before making a new all-time high.

This is just my opinion and is not intended as investment advice so please DYOR

i wont be shorting this now as its too close to the high. Shorts at resistance works better when there is a massive move on the day towards a major resistance level like a move of 100+ points. When there is only 40-50 points in it then best left alone.
This could breakout so one to keep an eye on.. I wont place any trades now as last 30 mins of trading.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow2ndapril2014.png