DOW

Good morning all, hope you are well keeping well. Been very busy lately that largely why I haven't been around much.
I was looking at the DOW charts last night and wonder if we have now seen the top for this first half of 2014.








Have a good day, dyor...

This is building out nicely. Normally i would short at resistance but this index has been hovering around the major resistance for a few days now so shorting may be risky. Im gonna go long about 5 pips above the resistance level with a 40 point stop during market hours only. My long entry is at 16636.
An early signal may come in the form of the RSI trendline break giving you a possible tip that this may go higher so worth keeping an eye on that.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow9thmay2014.png

I was asked recently about the Big Picture looking ahead on the US indices. This is something many of us are gearing up for but timescales remain uncertain.

Sooner or later the bull run from 2009 lows will end and that ought to conclude Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 3. That should bring quite a crash in the form of Cycle 2 to be followed then by wat should be the strongest bull market for decades if not centuries in the form of Cycle Wave 3 of Supercycle Wave 3. The chart up to the end of Cycle 2 ought to go something like this:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowcyclewaves26_04_14.png

There's no panic yet but we're also nearing the top of what should be Primary 3 of Cycle 1 so a choppy and volatile second half of 2014 may be due.

Just something to watch.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Having looked at this in the cold light of a non-trading day, I've come to this conclusion: we are at a crunch support/resistance level. If price breaks thru here it will head to a minimum of 17,370, with obviously, a few stutters in between, to form the completion of wave (( v )) / C; there could well be extensions thereafter. Failure here, and more importantly 15,987, and we will be heading south again for more consolidation.

Ultimately, when this wave that started way back at 10,402 does complete, we will be looking at a sizable correction......

Yes Remo - it's approaching a very interesting area in the 15790-15800 region which I've been looking forward to for ages (those on chat will know lol!):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily12_04_14.png

There's been an awful lot of price action in those 10 points and the 61.8% Fib is not far away either so plenty of support around there.

Interestingly, SPX has been more bearish of late so it's roughly back in line with Dow after leading for quite some time. In fact, at 1814/5, it's a little ahead in this drop as its equivalent trendline is at 1800, only 15 pips away compared to Dow which is 230 or so away (a usual 9:1 ratio gives a relative difference of c. 100 pts) so it'll be interesting to see which way they go.

If it does bounce and our wave counts are right it could be quite a move

The dow has moved back down hard this week from that resistance area.
This now is approaching the trend line(minor) which i will be going long on a first attempt basis.
The trend line is currently at 15795 so i will be going long at 15800 with a 40 point stop.Obviously the trend line changes daily so i will be changing my level daily as well.. This trade is the patient trade im always on about
good luck

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow12thapril2014.png