GKP

PS If you think those bull option waves look out of synch size-wise then look at the log scale chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...logchart26_04_13.gif

Trendfriend wrote: Jackozy,

Just noticed something on the long term GKP chart.

I see a gap(i've tried to show it with the horizontal lines). Sorry about the dodgy chart, but the gap is around 55p roughly.

My question is this, if we take your Big bad Bear option(LOL), its not a million miles from this gap, right?

Not saying we are going there, but say a bad result in the court case, then possibly.
Just wondered if you had noticed this gap before?
Here is the link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...bd80=&symbol=L%5EGKP

B.Regs,
Trendfriend.

Hi Trendfriend,

Yes, there are gaps at 52.75p, 31.25p and 13p. It's really quite amazing that even the 53p one is being discussed lol!

Here are the weekly charts showing the options I discussed last night. First the bull option:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...lloption26_04_13.gif

We'd normally look for the 61.8% Fib to hold for a wave 2. Sometimes it'll drop to the 78.6% Fib, but there's usually a full retrace if that goes which is why I think this option is unlikely. So what does the bear count look like?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...aroption26_04_13.gif

Yes, I know that there are some unbelievable possibilities in here, but the whole saga has been unreal so you never know. Corrective waves (ABCs) have 2 basic forms: 3-3-5 and 5-3-5. There are many complicated versions of these, but they're the basic forms.

The above bear count assumes that 450p was the top of a major wave 1 and we're looking at the wave 2 retrace of the 4.5p to 450p move. That has the 61.8% Fib at 175p which has already gone and the 78.6% Fib at 100p. If it closes below that 100p Fib then it opens up a possibility of a full retrace as described above. Remember, this is pure technical theory taking no account of fundamentals whatsoever.

Going back to the basic corrective forms, we can easily see how the drop to 139p could be a 3 wave move for wave A, then we have a clear 3 wave move up to 260p for a possible B. We'd then (normally) be looking for a 5 wave move down for wave C. During this move, we'd expect wave 1 of C down to be followed by a 61.8% retrace upwards for wave 2. That's exactly what happened when it hit 228p. Wave 3 sometimes comes in at the 161.8% extension of wave 1 projected from the wave 2 high and that's shown on the chart. A 38.2% retrace of that move would constitute a wave 4 up and then a final wave 5 down which, in this purely hypothetical case, could give a target at c. 29p, right near that 31p gap.

I realise that this is a very emotive share so please, please take all the above only as the theoretical discussion it's intended to be. Pretend it's not GKP and just consider the above as a discussion of wave analysis.

Remember also that corrective waves are usually very complex and unpredictable (wave 3 of C may get nowhere near the 161.8% extension for example) so none of the above may happen in reality.

Today's action so far is not suggestive of a reversal yesterday but the day is still young. We've already discussed the safest way to go long on this so until then it's best not to try and catch the bottom. That's not to say don't buy support, but DO make sure you use stops if you try that.

If anyone wants to look at Ichimoku chart or P&F chart analysis on this then I'd be happy to join in. Best of luck folks.

seeing there's lots of interest - here's a different view...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG

here's a simple chart but effective chart and it dont look pretty, needs to start moving to the upside pretty quickly:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Monthly.JPG

WaveSurfer wrote: J pretty much agree with your assessment, imo i dont think the low is in...too many PI eyes on the 140/131 price range along with a somewhat muted reaction in price and candle... one potential positive to take is there appears to be a +div developing daily & weekly from previous lows of 139p jun2012, maybe just maybe...confirmation is key now before entering into this.

if ~126/119 goes.. then u bet this will trigger a waterfull effect & a very good possibility it'll start ripping through into 106 > 88 > 68 > 54p.

WS.

J pretty much agree with your assessment, imo i dont think the low is in...too many PI eyes on the 140/131 price range along with a somewhat muted reaction in price and candle... one potential positive to take is there appears to be a +div developing daily & weekly from previous lows of 139p jun2012, maybe just maybe...confirmation is key now before entering into this.

if ~126/119 goes.. then u bet this will trigger a waterfull effect & a very good possibility it'll start ripping through into 106 > 88 > 68 > 54p.

WS.

Jackozy,

Just noticed something on the long term GKP chart.

I see a gap(i've tried to show it with the horizontal lines). Sorry about the dodgy chart, but the gap is around 55p roughly.

My question is this, if we take your Big bad Bear option(LOL), its not a million miles from this gap, right?

Not saying we are going there, but say a bad result in the court case, then possibly.
Just wondered if you had noticed this gap before?
Here is the link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...bd80=&symbol=L%5EGKP

B.Regs,
Trendfriend.