GKP

"I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules"...

I agree Jackozy and we assess and re-assess, it's left me scratching my head for sure - so i've been looking at all time frames extensively, price, wave structures and known & uncommon fib ratio relationships and fundamental aspects to try and piece this mess together.

I maybe completely out here but this structure i'm looking at fits quite well and seems plausible for several reasons.....it's lengthy so stay with me.

Need you and several others familiar at EW that are willing to maintain dialogue and provide feedback and an objective opinion....you know me from our discussions, i look at all things and dont do true EW but remain objective to it's discipline & adhere to some key rules. from a fundamental perspective - anybody else that's willing to share (in private) on info/rumours that most general public are not aware of (to-re-assess against price...) i.e takeover, was there an offer,has it been agreed, indi article or aob that's relevant .. big ask i know but hey if you dont ask you dont get ! . yet here i am spending my time writing this, dunno why. maybe i just hate seeing PI's get shafted or maybe i'm just a good bloke willing to share my time to help or just love looking at charts lol In any case this what this great site setup by Remo & ronnie is all abt - to help, support and guide.....i digress or do i....

ok so here it is......

I believe W1 of larger degree wave completed at 202 and what we have here is an irregular correction, which in EW is extremely bullish when it completes...from my perspective, looking at this structure and that GKP lifecycle chart i posted ( greed, fear panic) it coincides perfectly and remain within the true sense of EW imo. Time, Price, Behaviour of the crowd.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG





so here is my assessment:





w1 = 4.5p - 21p
w2 = 21p - 10p @ 61.8% of w1
w3 = 10p - 130p - current holding as support - coincidence ?
w4 = 130p - 64p - coincidence that retraced to a previous minute wave 4 of w3 level early - mid sept 09 ? also 57% @ 61p & 61.8% @ 56p (that price range number again - see previous post) - jackozy, your ref to july2010 candle – wave 4 complete & start of wave 5.
w5 = 64p - 202p.

the abv sequence completes imho a larger degree W1. what is and has been occurring is imo an irregular correction W2 of larger degree wave

An irregular correction occurs when the end of the B wave exceeds the starting point of the A wave ( this would be 202p). This almost always occurs in strong trends, whether up or down. In other words, the trend is so strong that any move in its direction is met with a thrust of buying or selling. (exxon rumor/bid, indi article, denial, Court case) Irregular tops can occur in zigzags or flats, but are the strongest when they occur in flats.

i hope your still with me and not falling a sleep lol zzzzzzz....

Now the start from 202p to W2 irregular complex correction.

Major A completed @ 88p ( 202p>112p (a)>183p (b)>88p (c)) aug2011 lows.
Major B completed @ 450p ( 88p>190p (a)>121p (b)>450 (c)) – There is no rule how high an irregular wave B can extend from start of (A) but usually they cap .282% fib .

Some interesting observations on this & fib relationship to price – ref weekly chart & monthly charts.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP...%20_Irreg%20_Alt.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG





A fib extension from 202p (major A high) @

161% = 273p – became support for minute 4 of c of B (16 jan 12)and became resistance 26th march 12.
223% =343p – Monthly chart – body of candle comes in pretty dam close to this price( feb12) and weekly & monthly chart – breakdown occurred 05 March 12– top body of candle and price
261% = 387p – exactly the top of the weekly candle 06 feb12
282% =410p - exactly the top body of the weekly candle 30 Jan 12
And then we have final thrust and exhaustion bar to 450p that failed to be supported.

Major C in progress right now… where will it end ?

Well if this is correction is indeed a flat we can now project downside targets:

Either wave C will complete @ the low Major A @88p or make slightly lower low to the previous 4 low – there that number again J @ 64p.

Alternatively this can end up being a failed flat:
occurs when the C wave fails to reach the ending point of the A wave (@88p). the market is so strong, that it takes off before the correction has fully completed – news pending ?

there is clear support in the region of 126-131 or @minor a of A @ 106-113p…. hmmmmm

Funny isnt it - if there are people in the know (smart money) that a price has been agreed, or abt to be, or is some fundamental news due- then wouldnt it be appropriate to get the price down as low as possible to fill your boots again?

I could be completely wrong here, but clearly the structure fits well in my eyes here taking into account many factors – if you don’t try and you don’t get nothing in life, at the end of the day we just need to see how this wave develops from here on in....

This is all in my opinion of course, any feedback & opinions, debate welcomed....

For the first five way move to be an impulsive wave it must contain three divergences in the RSI: one in the wave 3; one in the wave 5, and one in the overall wave structure between waves 3 and 5. This, so far as I can see, is not the case in this instance and therefore this is not an impulsive wave structure, hence the wave A label. I can only label what I see. Just because this is the first wave of this company's trading doesn't make it a wave 1. The only thing that can make it a wave 1 is having the correct structure. I would suggest the timing of the inception of this company is more likely to dictate the initial wave structure rather than the company itself: i.e. the movement of the market in general.
This is all just my way of thinking and labeling so please feel free to disagree. All will be revealed in due course

Hi Diver, no such things as "butting in" on an open discussion mate - all views welcome here surely?

A couple of observations that I'm sure will make you smile

1) You've labelled the move from 4.55p to 465p as a wave A. By definition, this is the first subwave of a corrective sequence (ABC). The (very) long term implication of this is a low below 4.55p. It also implies a previous price higher than where you'd project your C to end since the whole ABC would be a correction to a previous downtrend. I think you really need to look at a way to label 4.55p to 465p as an impulse motive wave up. ie a wave 1 of some degree, or possibly a wave 1 and some subwaves of a wave 3 as I've done. I'm not saying my labelling is definitely right - I'd quite like to find a way to count 4.55p to 465p as a single set of 5 waves which would put us in a wave 2 down now and still leave us with a chance of hanging on to the 78.6% Fib at 100p.

2) 87p is not an abitrary level. It was the final support on the retreat from 202.75p and is, therefore, significant. If the sequence from 4.55p to 202.75p was a 5 wave sequence then that drop from 202.75p to 87p would have to have been the wave 2 of larger degree and would therefore be the projection point for upside extension targets. Indeed, that very extension played out almost perfectly as the 161.8% extension was at 409p. There are other possibilities of course.

3) Re your projection for your wave C of B (A of C given as 465p to 139.25p, B of B as 139.25p to 260p). The maximum extension of A that C can be is 79.75% and this would have C at a price of zero pence. Perhaps this move down from 465p might be better counted as a double or triple three? That way you don't need to worry about problematic projections of the 465p to 139.25p move. Just an idea.



WS: That's an interesting take. Here's something else to add to it: the 161.8% extension of 260p to 161p from 228p comes in at 68p which falls right in your ball park. There's also an oft-overlooked trendline - that from the 4.55p and 10.25p lows in 2009. Plot that trendline and where does it sit now? That's right, 68p. Given the shallow nature of it, it won't move up too quickly so it remains approximately valid for quite some time.

Also, looking at your monthly chart the waves down from 465p look very clear to me, I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules. In addition, unlike at previous turning points on the monthly chart, the indicators you've shown, rather than appearing to bottom out or turn, look to be turning further downwards and even diverging. The July 2010 candle, being fairly small, gave the chance for an August bullish engulfing candle, and the August 2011 candle was clearly a big hammer. It's going to take something spectacular on Monday and Tuesday to make April 2013's candle look anything other than very bearish. And when was the last time the SP rose during May and June of a given year? Answer: it never has.

One final general point. Following Thursday's big long-legged doji, Friday has formed an inside bar so at least in the short term we can look for a break of either 143p or 136p for direction.

there seems to be an attraction to the lowest point of 50p range of late, coincidence this price was first monthly range since start of trading back sept 2004 - 60p high to 48.5p low and monthly close of 56.4p.

in fact sept 2004 - june 2007 clear support price was 48p with highest price in that period being 98p oct 2005.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

B77. I hope I'm not butting in but I see no merit in taking a starting point from an arbitrary point like 87p. Why not 64p for example?
If you want an overall picture then take the extremes of price. On my chart, which admittedly is not the best, 4.55p is the lowest point. Plot your fibs from there and you will find 131.50 falling neatly into the extended target area between 61.8% and 76.4%. The primary target area being 50% to 61.8% on all retraces of a completed move. The 76.4% falls at 113.22 which has provided support in the past. Due to the extremes of action that propelled the SP to 465.00 it is no surprise to see it extending during the retrace.
Should this prove to be the low, this is also the place from which to plot the extension. My current best bet on the overall construction of this share is that it is forming a zigzag: structured 5;3;5 in waves. There are five distinct moves in an A wave terminating at 465.00, and three moves in the current retrace. Granted the current retrace has not reached an invalidation point yet, in that it hasn't proved the move is complete, but there are some indications that may point that way. Hopefully all of the above is apparent from this chart.........

If we now move to the daily chart we can look for the fib extensions from the highs in an attempt to determine the possible low of, what I am calling, wave B. Again start with the extremes. So look to 465.00 as a starting point. From there plot to 139.25 at A and back up to 259.49 at B. Now, the fib construction of ZigZags determines a C wave to be either 61.8; 100; or 123.6% of wave A and this is where the conflict arises. The 61.8 extension from this high comes at 58.177 - shake; shiver; quiver! - Whereas, making the same calculation of the internal structure of the C wave thru B;W;X in yellow, provides a 100% extension at 129.51, and a max 123.6% at 106.27. The grey extension is a c of C and is already extended to 161.8% so I may well have got that labeling wrong and will need to re-label, but this also terminates at 128.57.


So, both of these internal structures, together with the RSI and StochRSI are looking exhausted, hence my supposition the wave may well be complete.
Now, I am not placing any bets on this as it is only theory. I am firmly in the 'Remo Camp' of wanting to see. what I call, invalidation, and what he terms a '123' pattern, before risking hard-earned cash. So please, DYOR.
It is not often I get time to put detail on paper so apologise if some of my posts appear a bit cryptic at times but trust this provides some missing detail.
Have a great weekend folks - Spring is here; April is almost done and it's 6 degrees outside! This global warming has a lot to answer for!!!

With vol. and MACD more pronouned than June 2012, no suprise if the trend continues below 139p now 141.75p has broken, whether 131p/129p; 111p or lower holds time will tell. Looking at the oblique support on this ProRealtime chart, 103.5p & 100.5p could occur on 10/6/13 & 18/6/13 respectively.Good or bad news from the court case?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/87556809/0da...6072e3d45599_png.mht

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

Still waiting for selling climax.

"There will be a wide spread down-day, often driving down into recent (closed at 128.25 1/11/11; 124.50 4/10/11; 103.00 5/8/11; 100.75 8/8/11) or new low ground (87p 4/8/11)all pre that spike, and then closing at or near the highs, on high vol. Note this indicator is more reliable when the day is gapped down and the following day is gapped up - add more bullishness if news is bad. Any down-day on low vol.(no selling) after this event, especially if it closes on the high of the day, is a strong indicator of market strength". Page 81 Master the Markets - volume analysis.