GKP

Jolly good evening all, just scanning through the wave chat I have not noticed 88p mentioned a lot. The reason I ask, (I have a strong sense that the P&F targets give a strong hint of which fib ratios to aim for, for those who use updata and have access to the P&F charts, if you use a 1% x3 log chart, the time frames of 5, 10, 15 and 30 mins along with the Weekly all have 86-89 active targets.





I would feel a little more assured if I could get a fib to line exact!!! and I cant!

Thank you

ft

Diver, as far as I know there's no requirement in EWT for RSI divergences. They are commonly seen between waves 3 and 5 of same degree but there's definitely no "rule" that there must be a divergence.

In any event, and to pick up on a point raised by Wreckless Eric, if we assume that wave 1 was 4.5p to 21.5p was wave 1 (which I'm 100% sure of personally since it was a rise of over 300% and 4.5p was the low SP) then there is a weekly bearish RSI divergence between the 130.5p and 202.75p peaks giving you a wave 3/5 divergence there and also a daily bearish divergence between the peaks at 161.5p on 20/09/10 and 202.75p on 3/11/10 which are the subwaves 3 and 5 of larger wave 5.

It's only if you assume that 450p (465p for some charts) was the top of a 5th wave with the 3rd wave top at 202.75p that you don't get the weekly RSI divergence. In fact, there was a divergence at 450p on the daily chart but only between the subwaves of the move from 87p to 450p.

In addition your wave A from 4.5p to 450p has 5 subwaves as part of a zigzag if I'm not mistaken. If that's the case then by your own argument you'd have to have an RSI divergence between 202.75p and 450p which you haven't got. Your RSI divergence requirement would have to apply to an impulsive wave A and C just as it would to a wave 1, 3 or 5 which would imply that 450p must be the top of a wave B, 2 or 4 so either way it cannot be an A if you insist on your RSI divergence.

I fully agree with WS that 202.75p was the top of Primary wave 1 and, for me, the debate is really all about the post-202.75p moves. And on that note....

WS, I have seen that possibility raised before ie that 450p is the top of a wave B in an expanded (irregular) flat. Certainly on a log scale chart it's looks much more possible. A coupe of points on this possibility:

1) Flats, due to their bullish nature, are almost always in a wave 4 position. Here we're discussing a possible Primary wave 2;

2) In an expanded flat, the wave C usually ends more substantially below the wave A low than in a "regular" flat which suggests a wave C low comfortably below 87p assuming this to be the correct count;

3) There's a third possibility if this is a flat (which, according to point 1 above seems unlikely to me) - that of a running flat. Of the 3 flat varieties, I think this would be the most likely by virtue of how far beyond 202.75p the SP went. The running flat is very rare and has a wave B top well beyond the start of wave A and also has a wave C which fails to go beyond the wave A low. Could this be the case here?


We'll only ever know the answer to this question after the event of course but we do seem to agree on this being in a wave C of some corrective sequence or other, and in subwave 3 of C at that. I certainly can't see any complete corrective wave count at 131.5p and the pace of the drop below 161p is in keeping with the strength of a wave 3.

Going back to diver's RSI point (and I do agree that there is usually a divergence between 3rd and 5th waves, just not that it's a requirement), the reason we often see bullish RSI divergences at the bottom of downtrend is precisely because wave C is usually an impulse wave with a 5 wave sub-structure so we get the divergence between the 3 of C and 5 of C. This is one reason why I was always sceptical about 141p being the low of the drop from 450p - there was no divergence.

IMHO we will get a bullish divergence at the bottom of this move so that may well be our first clue for a reversal. For now, though, 161p is now the key number as that seems to be the low of wave 1 of C down. If that's the case then any wave 4 of C ought to stay below that (there is a case where this doesn't have to hold true - an ending diagonal) and a 5th wave down would be likely to drop below 131.5p. A close above 161p would likely signal the drop is over and we'll have to re-visit the wave count all over again.

Have a look at the following weekly chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly26_04_13.gif

Note the support at 119p from 4th Oct 2011. If that holds for the low of wave 3 of C then the 38% Fib (most common for a wave 4) happens to be at exactly 161p. A wave 5 of C equal in length to wave 1 of C would then find support very close to the 64p support from the 2010 low. Just something to look out for but worth noting I thought.

I'll continue to look for more bullish cases but I haven't been able to see any convincing ones yet. Remember, 161p is now a key level.

Amending:

25/04/13, candle doji,not 26/04/13.

Sorry.

Jackozy, WS, and all,

I feel that I have lost in wave count. But I have looked into RSI on the chart below, My chart also are same marked on WS chart about this RSI values, which is 26 Apr 9:32 and 28 Apr 12:30.








We can see that RSI (14) on 28 June 2012 is below 30, sp = 139.25p, next 1-2 days sp jumped. On 24 Dec 2012, RSI below 30, sp= 164p, next day, sp jumped. 26 Apr 13, candle is doji, next day inside as Jackozy said. The RSI was not down, but maintain 23ish. I hope that the same pattern repeat, but at least I hope there is slight sp up in short term.

I heard the rumour the good news is on the way. Lol

ogh

thanks eric - that's what i was or had been thinking, but always had that doubt and current move confirms that it may not be the case 5 waves up imo - however with that view -

1.there is clear overlap of wave 4 entering into wave 1 territory which is a no no in EW rules....

also we look at the time GKP floated - its started downtendng was it made a high of 98p in an abc to the lows of 4.5

26th june 2006 - a @ 43p , feb 05 2007 - b @ 75p, 16th march 2009 - c @ 4.5p

2. again wave 2's cannot exceed wave 1.
3. C wave up to complete B major what i have done - is 5 waves

all the three ABC corrections wave C subdivides into a five wave pattern, or an impulse wave.

An irregular is made up of a 3-3-5 sequence in which wave B exceeds the start of wave A and waves C moves close to or beyond the end of wave A.

Major A - 3 waves, Major B - 3 waves - Major C - 1,2,3 current with 4 & 5 waves to follow.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

regards WS

In your weekly chart:-

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG

I only ever see 5 waves 13p to 450p, followed by the current correction waves.

The 4.5p to 21p and 21p to 10p is still part of the downtrend
The breakout occured on oil find day 6/8/09, IMO.
450p is definately a wave five peak.

As I posted yesterday this results in not much of a difference in the possible bottom:-

---

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

---

Not ruling out a large intra-day spike down (selling climax - on bad news).