GKP - Research

Intersting debate, the fundamental investor vs the technical chart trader.
Who's right?? who's wrong??

Guess it's one of those where we don't have definite 100% clear cut answer, hence the debate??
After all no one cannot argue, Warren Buffet is not succesfull!

In my opinion (for what it's worth) you need at least the very basic TA skills to be able to invest succesfully in the market. No matter how strongly you believe in investing on fundametals, having some TA knowledge will not affect this, and be an added advantage.

For me, i'm in the TA camp, and i would think most of us on Chartsview, will understand the below quote and most likely agree with it.

This is a quote from the intro of the book, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Tenth Edition. By Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W.H.C. Bassetti (an excellent book, and a must read btw)

"The technical anaylst may go even further in his claim, he may offer to interpret the chart of a stock whose name he does not know, so long as the record of trading is accurate and covers a long enough term to enable him to study its market background and habits.
He may suggest he could trade with profit in a stock knowing only its ticker symbol, completely ignorant of the company, the industry, what it manufactures or sells, or how it is capatalized. Needless to say, such practice is not recommended, but if your market technician is really experienced at his busines, he could in theory do exactly as he claims.
Should the reader at this point,find the technical approach to trading or investing, as explained in the foregoing completely abhorent, perhaps he should close the book now".

Good weekend folks
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Hi SRB,
The answer to your question is - we could be anywhere.... Obviously I, like many others who are holding, hope this is the bottom, but we've all thought that many times and been disappointed. Time will tell is the only honest answer I'm afraid. I've rather given up with the importance of labeling as it only appears to generate argument and confusion. Instead I concentrate on fibs, fib extensions, and allied supports and resistances.
Sorry I can't be more helpful.

Diver

No worries Keith. Each to their own. You are right about the OIP but it was used to illustrate a point, not to be used literally. It's all about perception in this game..........

Will look at your TA later when I have more time.

GL
F4T

Hey, I'm new posting here and want to add if I can. Please don't take offence - With constant lower highs, we can keep counting those 5 waves down and ABC corrections on and on, trading the counts down short or going long on the corrective waves, but - at some point the trend will change - unless you think the company will go bankrupt right? I mean CEY - Egypt, even GPX in Syria - there's money to be made. To say 20bb to 630mm is a bit misleading because surely if you trade oil shares you know that only a percentage is recoverable,and I don't recall anyone saying 20bb was recoverable, though maybe I don't read iii enough! LOL! - I mean to think oip of a field is all recoverable...Not meaning to stoke an arguement, shit now I sound like someone on iii(erm I just trade charts honest guv), but the facts are that the CPR is on a fraction of the field and the MNR especially Dr Hawarami is corrupt as fck! Basically Kurdistan owns Shaikan they are in charge here, I mean I've never seen a government post a letter to refute an article in the Times. What's that all about! - the MNR/KRG are not going to tell Baghdad, oh Shaikan has more potential than Rumaila...oh no, no no. Anyway Fib extensions from low 61p to swing high 89.75 to yesteday's low gives 161.8% extension at 116.77p - a double top to previous high spike. So if the 89.75p is wave 1 high, wave 3 could be a double top and a wave 5 could give us a higher high, coupled with a 'potential' inverse head and shoulders (right shoulder now forming) bullish reversal, this could well be it! Though people have been saying this since £4 odd so I see why this share should carry a health warning LOL! So F4T you're dead right to apply caution "where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying." RESPECT! So - erring on the side of caution - stay in cash, trade a break of neckline on volume if pattern completes, stop just below, add on backtest and jump out at double top, wait for pullback and see if it is a 3 with a 4 pullback or just correction waves to downtrend IMO.

Hi Learning and thanks for your thoughts and fundamental comments.

The beauty of TA is that it saves you reading, deciphering and cogitating all that fundamental stuff, a lot of which is nonsense. TA reads the mood of the market and that is all you need. All you need to know is if the market is bullish, bearish or neutral on the stock.

If I am trading a company I do read the company news and always have an understanding of it's position. It would be foolish not to, but particularly with small caps, much of it can be taken with a pinch of salt. I've been there and believe me, I have never come across such a badly run company as GKP and i have been involved in a good few small caps. I have never come across a company where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying.

I am sorry to say that that is why it is such a good trading share, because if you make money it is probably a PI on iii that is losing it.

20B barrels to 630MM. Director voted out of the company by shareholders but still keeps his job and salary. No more meeds to be said.

TA is much simpler, quicker and safer. All it takes in a bit of study and the ability to follow some simple rules that are generally contra to normal human behavior/instinct. Remember, it is humans you are trying to beat.

GL
F4T

Hi Diver,

Where are we now with the wave count in your opinion.

SRB