GKP - Research

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) — Company Research
Last Updated: 22 April 2026

One-line summary: 80% working-interest operator of the Shaikan oil field in Kurdistan. Zero debt, ~$565m market cap, just paid $62.5m of dividends in 2025, but production voluntarily shut-in on 28 Feb 2026 on regional security concerns.

Snapshot

• Price: ~204p (52-week range: ~143–234.5p)
• Market cap: ~£441m / ~$565m
• Net cash: $78m at end-2025 (no debt)
• FY2025 revenue: $193.1m (+28% YoY)
• FY2025 Adj EBITDA: $111.4m (+46%)
• Production (FY2025): 41,560 bopd gross average
• 2P reserves: 416 MMstb (27-year reserves life)
• EV/EBITDA: ~4.4x
• Dividend yield (trailing): ~8.8%
• CEO: Jon Harris (since Jan 2021)

Bull case

• ITP pipeline reopened on 27 September 2025 after a 30-month halt — drove 28% FY2025 revenue growth.
• Zero debt, $78m cash, committed $25m+ minimum ordinary dividend policy. $50m declared in 2025 plus $12.5m interim paid 27 Apr 2026.

[*] Low opex at ~$4.4/bbl — resilient cash margin even at interim ~$14/bbl net export price.
[*] 27-year reserve life on Shaikan; OIP estimated at 13.7bn bbls P50.
[*] Oslo dual listing on 18 Feb 2026 broadens investor base.
[/list]

Bear case

• Production voluntarily shut-in on 28 Feb 2026 following US/Israeli strikes on Iran and Kurdistan retaliation. 2026 guidance suspended.
• 100% single asset, single jurisdiction — no diversification.
• Export pricing deal is interim ($16/bbl gross, $14/bbl net for IOCs) and extended only to March 2026. No permanent framework yet.
• History of KRG payment delays. First export payment only received Nov 2025 at ~$30/bbl catch-up; recurring rate lower.
• 2P reserves down from 443 to 416 MMstb — production minus modest negative modelling revisions, drilling paused.

What's happened recently

• 9 Apr 2026: shares ex-dividend for $0.0575 ($12.5m) interim, payable 27 Apr.
• 3 Apr 2026: 2025 government payments disclosure: $250m total.

[*] 23–24 Mar 2026: large post-vest sells by CHRO and CLO (50k each); CLO and spouse then bought modestly in ISAs at 201–203p.
[*] 19 Mar 2026: FY2025 results — rev $193.1m, EBITDA $111.4m, 2P 416 MMstb, $12.5m interim declared.
[*] 28 Feb 2026: Shaikan production voluntarily shut-in; 2026 guidance of 37–41k bopd suspended.
[*] 18 Feb 2026: Euronext Growth Oslo dual listing.
[*] 27 Sep 2025: ITP pipeline reopened at 06:00 local time.
[/list]

Key dates coming up

• 27 Apr 2026 — interim dividend payment date.
• Jun 2026 — 2026 AGM (expected).
• Late Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results (based on prior cadence).
• Q2/Q3 2026 — interim ITP pricing framework renewal/replacement.
• When security allows — production restart at Shaikan.

Competitors in Kurdistan: DNO (Tawke operator, 75%; larger and more diversified), Genel Energy (25% Tawke; Taq Taq/Sarta shut), HKN Energy (Sarsang, private). All face same export framework and counterparty.

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This post is for discussion only and is not financial advice. The full report on the site contains the complete analysis, data tables, TradingView widgets, risks section and disclaimer.

This has been falling since the highs without a break but now it's at strong support area...the 61.8 fib level is a good area to add to position that were closed at higher prices... there is multiple supports around this area...you even have the short term trendline near by. You also got the support of the bollinger band as well...

DYOR
Remo

Officially opened now

x.com/RudawEnglish/status/19717935277819...Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Agreement has been done with regards to pipeline being opened

This is big news as the pipeline has been closed for a few years and they could only sell to local market...Now they will be able to sell to international markets...Before ,when the pipeline was open,gkp was paying massive dividends and that should happen again....
Just to add.. this company has no debts ...basically gonna be a cash cow.. risk is.. kurdistan...Iraq...Very unstable region.. but gkp has been here for ages and know how things work..
Oil we start pumping tomorrow through the pipeline.
Share price has broken out of strong resistance area...Next resistance area is 268
Just to add, the price has to finish above the breakout point by end of day.

Hi Paitech,

I'm good thanks...Its been a while, hope your keeping well!

gkp - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...eU9vxRGV1TZwdIbmcPo=

Your chart on gkp is pretty much on the money...this is in a nice long term up trend channel.
While in the channel look for the top of the channel around 240p area.

I always look for positives on all charts...on this there's one or two liitle things on the rsi that may be a sign of possible short term future downwards pressure.

The rsi is below 50, always a sign of weakness, also a slight rsi negative divergence and its also broken its support from around April.
If this breaks below the channel and the 200 day ema line....it could go short term lower...especially if it gaps below the channel...it may just hold the channel bounce back.
Any drop below the channel would be a good buying opportunity.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I too keep asking the same question , since 2009... where is it heading next?

I got my average down to 330p, but that too looks too far... from here...

Would be nice to make at least 100% profit on this, for the patience i have shown for past 16 years !!!

Charts here, fingers crossed...

ta G