GKP - Research

'The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass'
The question is not crass at all. I don't understand why you say that? It's simple, you buy when you can see a five way move in the opposite direction in a shorter time-frame from that which you are trading..........

---

Some people, especially technicians, don't like to talk about money (I am one) and some dislike making a call in case they get it wrong (btw making calls is what I enjoy as it focuses and puts pressure onto me get the call right). If we are to learn from each other we need to understand how others apply their trading systems to make money, so that we can understand and consider it as a potential option / improvement to our own plans. i.e. when they buy or sell.

Now, my call for a turn was 173/4 and 162 before that. Of those two I got one spot on and the other wrong (how wrong only time will tell, but right now it is not too wrong )

If it is not crass then why don't you make a call? Giving several numbers doesn't help anyone understand your thoughts.

Sorry diver993, I am really not trying to be pedantic (though often my posting tone seems that way). I just like to know others thoughts on trend change as that is what makes the money. You say that buying at 200+ is safe and will pay off, but you also say that 68 is on your radar. It just doesn't make sense or is fence sitting. If you bought at 200+ and the sp hits 68 then in my world you are in deep doodoo . You need to choose whether it is going up to 200 or down to 68 within a reasonable timeframe and place your bet accordingly.

I understand your comparison to support levels, but there are support levels in every stock all the way down to when the stock was first listed. It is the level of trend change that is important.

I have a general knowledge of EWT and waves in general, but find it too subjective and certainly too complicated. It is one of the few remaining techniques (I think) that looks at supposedly inherent characteristics of markets as opposed to triggers for participants to act upon and follow as a herd. Fibs IMO have some qualities of both.

I am rambling now so let's call an end to the discussion. FWIW I am confident that we are pretty close to a trend change, I am just not sure now whether that will occur after the whipsawing when the CC is decided. IMO there is value in GKP at 174 even if the company is told to give 30% to Excalibur (I use 250 as a re-risked value for 100% of the company based on the various broker valuations).

Anyway, time to close........
F4T

'Fair enough, I just struggle to understand how these theoretical levels can be used to make money when the first is 100 points away from the third.'
Trying to understand the Golden Ratio is not in my remit. For this you need to consult a higher power How it works? Why it works? I have no idea.....but it does and that's all that matters.
'The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass'
The question is not crass at all. I don't understand why you say that? It's simple, you buy when you can see a five way move in the opposite direction in a shorter time-frame from that which you are trading. So, for example, if you are trading the daily then look for a five way move on the 4 hour. If you jump in before this then you are gambling against the move being an extension. This will always keep you on the right side of the trend.
Don't be fooled into thinking this is a complex system. Far from it, it's just all those labels that make it look that way. Once you get used to all the 'squiggly bits' it's very simple indeed
Take care and stick with what you know

Fair enough, I just struggle to understand how these theoretical levels can be used to make money when the first is 100 points away from the third. Unless of course we reach 68. I can only assume that one is supposed to buy at all three.

The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass.

I will continue using my simpler trading plans. The simpler they are the more people will follow them, which is the goal.

I of course wish you good luck with yours and will congratlate you at all three levels.

F4T.

If you wish to look at it that way then so be it...I prefer a more considered view: the first target being 161, the 129, and worst case 69 - just like using supports. Using this method keeps me on the right side of the trend which I consider all important; and has proved extremely accurate over the last two years.

I think we should just accept 'different strokes for different folks'!

So your prediction is either 161, 129.51, 68.64, 157 or 146.14.

I rest my case.

Do you have any upside targets?

PS: RSI has back tested, for what it is worth......

My analysis of EWT is based solely on fib percentages and the RSI. Predictions are therefore based on Fib Expansions and, obviously - and not to disappoint:) - you get a different answer dependent upon where you start from.
Go right back in time to when the SP was 4.55p, then to the high at 465 and we are looking at 161.



If we look closer in, to what I am labeling B; W; X then 129.51 is the target.

Now, I should say these are the initial targets: there may be extensions to the percentages. Worst case scenario being a 161.80% extension from wave B at 68.643. And, if it gets that bad then a few will have hung themselves as opposed to just a few tears



Looking close in now, the other alternative is an expansion of the current wave from X showing an initial target 157 and an expansion of 146.14.
I think that about covers it, except to say I accept no responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy of the EWT labels, which could well be complete and utter 'tosh' - but I understand them