GKP - Research

Hi B77,

I was wondering if anyone would remember that post lol! As I recall, it didn't go down particularly well....wonder why?

Still, even the hardest granite will erode over time against the power of the waves

87p was merely mentioned as an outside chance as a technical possibility. I guess it still remains as such but this week's action, and particularly today's, is significant as F4T has discussed (do I still owe you a pint F4T? Happy to stump up on that mate!).

For the first time during this drop we had a real element of fear-selling and then some decent buy side volume kicking in which suggests this *could* be a low. The day's candle looks like forming a long legged doji ( www.forexbees.com/long-legged-doji/ ) so it'll be all about tomorrow's action now. It needs to open at, or above, today's close and keep going to finish with a bullish long white day.

As remo has discussed, the best thing to do would be to wait for the initial rise and then a higher low to form and buy the breakout. Until that happens we cannot be sure (and even then not 100% sure) of a trend reversal. Prices always retrace after an initial rise so there's no need to panic buy this yet. Even if the breakout to a higher high after a higher low occurs at, say, 161p it's still way lower than we should have exited at.

Best of luck. Fun, ain't it?

From 17th October, 2012

Jackozy: "The bearish case would have it as a wave 1 of a larger degree wave C (wave A being 450p to 139p, B then 139p to 258p) which may go all the way back to 87p."

And a reply:

No joke, if we went sub 100p I would actually sell all my other investments and go "all in"

87p is just beyond the realms of insanity.

You can use TA up to a point, but IMO calling 87p a possibility is nonsense.

desktoptrader.iii.co.uk/investment/detai...n=detail&id=10105321

Would be interesting to know your view on the wave count now, Jackozy.
You are saying that 131p is a significant historic level (farmertim posted good reasons for 129p as a possible low).
You still think 87p is on the cards now?
Also, in terms of the bigger picture, what would wave projections be - hypothetically - if 131p becomes the low of this move and trend reverses?

Not sure my view is valid as I thought the ABC correction from 450 was to include a diverging
B (up to 280-320) before down to a lower C than 141.75.I was wrong.

As Remo has highlighted, a day traders share at present

---

"This could head back towards 120 area or lower if it finishes below 139.
supports....139,,,136(channel target)130(psychological from the past) ,,,119,,,,87,,,64,,,,,52.75(gap)
resistance...151.84,, This needs to stay above 139 today...." Remo

---

As F4T mentions higher vol. so far this week, but the spike downs yesterday morning and today may reoccur until all the margined/weak holders shares have been absorbed by professional buying.

Previous low RSI days:-

28/6/12 RSI 24.046;vol 7.5m;low 139.25;close 141.75, next day +13%
24/12/12 RSI 24.769 ;vol 1.1m;low 164.0; close 164.0, next day +7%
24/4/13 RSI 23.346; vol 4.6m;low 141.57; close 141.75, today ? +/-

Today's vol may not be enough to stop the down trend just yet?

Previous large down week:-

1st week August 2011 -25.9% 143.0 down to 103 with 87p low, vol.48.9m
Current week so far -16.9% 169.25 down to 141 with 131p low, vol. 43m+

Hi Jackozy,

welcome back.

We have had 43MM volume so far this week with the initial technical retrace and subsequent panic. It could go lower but IMO we probably found bottom at ~131, a key level as you note. We have the possibility of a lovely hammer today which could/should hammer out a bottom. We should see indicators turning positive shortly IMO. I'll be bold and make that call.

A 50% recovery of the fall would bring us neatly to 160.

There is good value at levels seen yesterday and today which should be taken advantage of . GKP is a great share for opportunity if you play it right. Not for the faint hearted though.

Let's see what happens
F4T

Totally agree with that remo and that's precisely what I'm doing - waiting for a higher low and then a breakout.

Our old friend 131p came into play today. That's been such a key level over the years: the original high after the oil discovery, the support for when the lawsuit was announced and the big drop happened plus that general area has been support on many occasions.

Will it do the same this time around? Tune in later to find out ))

Also, there's now been a new low below 141p which was always a strong possibility to complete an ABC correction from 450p.

[nb - this is the first time there's been a "proper" intraday drop with real panic and fear attached and, imho, that's normally a good sign. Much more likely to get a bounce off a sharp drop than a slow drip because the sharp ones kick in the volume]

I tried to short GKP the other day and IG did not let me....
I dont no why that was but it seems strange
Typical thou as would have made a packet out of it...