GKP - Research

www.shareprophets.com/analysis/171/sell-...technical-target-10p

(Free to register - there's a chart with the article)

14bn barrels of oil as a possible reserve sounds enormous. But can Gulf Keystone export any oil that it produces from Kurtdistan? It seems to have had a few issues of late and that and the CEO flogging nearly all his shares, has spooked some fundamental investors. But the technical outlook is really grim.

What seems to be a standout to me at Gulf Keystone is the way that 99% of IG Index’s clients are long and that this number has not flinched even as the stock fell from 180p to 140p over the course of this month. Perhaps they know that there is going to be a happy ending for the company, but looking at the charting picture this does not seem to be the case. In fact, the outlook appears quite ominous, over and above the 10% decline which has already been seen from the bear call in the Shareprophets video I made last week which you can watch here.

While a book could be written on the daily chart configuration of Gulf Keystone, the main points are as follows: the overall 2011 – 2013 price pattern is that of an extended head & shoulders reversal, in fact the sharp February spike towards 450p (the head) really does appear to be the mother of bull trap situations, as well as ensuring that anyone who was bearish on this market would have been annihilated. Unfortunately a similarly grisly fate could be on offer for the longs from now.

This is because the loss of the December 161p low this month also triggered the 2 year top formation, with this idea backed up by the way that since the 161p level snapped there has not even been the slightest effort to test it as new resistance – it is a meltdown. While a weekly close back above 161p might delay the breakdown argument, a stock / market does not spend 2 years building a top and then cancelling it after a couple of weeks.

The “minimum” downside at this stage for Gulf Keystone is seen as being the red mid channel support line at 100p, while a weekly close below this opens up the bottom of the 2011 price channel and 2 year support line projection heading as low as 10p – yes, 10p. As things stand the 10p level is a one year target.

- See more at: www.shareprophets.com/analysis/171/sell-...sthash.wrMXJjGp.dpuf

Do you have a link for that bonobo please would like to see how he comes to that prediction.

SRB

Well Zak Mir has just sent a fox into the chicken coop with a 10p / 1Yr target.

Hi ft,

The only "fib" I can fit to 87p is the 100% retracement of the whole last rise. It has been discussed but not specifically as a wave target though it is a possible one - a bounce off the monthly cloud base at 103p (there's a 78.6% fib at 100p too) could point to wave C ending c. 87p. No doubt it's a key level and I've seen those p&f targets too, plus the 56p one.

WS; agreed on all points. W2 flats are rare though. I'll have a look at the Dow ones in the morning - thanks for pointing them out. Having such a bullish form in a wave 2 position certainly ought to be followed by an extremely strong 3rd wave so that fits everyone's hopes and dreams if nothing else lol!

Thank you for responding Wavesurfer

From a wave target point of view I recognise the 100 level and 65 level (sorry not exact figures) are important.
I recognise how significant 87 is from a straight forward support level.
My query is, is there a fib ratio which corresponds with the 87 level?

FT - do you mean you have seen 88p mentioned a lot rather than not ?

88p is spot to watch.