USDJPY

Closed the short at the short term trendine support shown here. Now waiting for a breakout either way:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13a.gif

Looking at trading this on the 4H chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13.gif

There's a bearish RSI divergence coupled with a lower high and a possible second lower high where the RSI downtrend came into play from that bear div. These followed lower lows. A close below 95.748 will mean a failed breakout and a close below 94.28 will mean a further lower low and more downside IMHO.

I initially went long on the backtest of 95.748 but have now reversed that and am short (bit early really) as the price came back to the breakout level a second time suggesting it's not likely to hold. On its own that's not a decision-maker, but added to everything else was enough for me to open the short, if only a small position. Stops above 96.132.

This has bounced of this level a few times now. So there is a chance this may breakout soon.
shorting at 9498 has already gone as its already bounced of on first attempt basis. But the fact that its still hanging around this level now increases the chance of a breakout tomorrow.
so keep an eye out on the NFP tomorrow as that may send this flying.
This pair has moved a large amount since i first mentioned this.
If your already short on this protect your winnings. make it a free trade just encase.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/jpyusd7thmarch.png

Thanks RMc. Got that:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4hour19_02_13.gif

Jackozy wrote: I've decided to take a slightly risky short on this today. My reasons are that it has been very close to a major resistance at 94.98 recently (94.4 high) and it made a lower high yesterday. Couple that with the very bearish RSI divergence and the MACD divergence and the widespread press reports about the weakness of the Yen (press reporting weakness suggests strength to come and vice versa ) and I think there's a good chance for a few pips south. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up to 94.98 later on so I'll look to take profit on this if it goes my way. If it doesn't go on to make a new high then there wil always be a chance to get back in at a downtrend resistance later. Here's the chart:

dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_02_13.gif

Hi Jack

Look to the 4hr/8hr chart
Nice head and shoulders in play?

Sorry no chart RMc

I've decided to take a slightly risky short on this today. My reasons are that it has been very close to a major resistance at 94.98 recently (94.4 high) and it made a lower high yesterday. Couple that with the very bearish RSI divergence and the MACD divergence and the widespread press reports about the weakness of the Yen (press reporting weakness suggests strength to come and vice versa ) and I think there's a good chance for a few pips south. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up to 94.98 later on so I'll look to take profit on this if it goes my way. If it doesn't go on to make a new high then there wil always be a chance to get back in at a downtrend resistance later. Here's the chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_02_13.gif