USDJPY

I agree Diver. That last move down does look a lot like a wave 4 so I'd add the height of wave 1 to the wave 4 low for a possible target. Not sure where that comes in as I'm on my phone atm.

Another possibility is this is a wave 5; the wave 4 being from 103.74 down to 93.79, which would be 38.2% of wave 3. If this is the case this could well go to 106.09, being 123.6% of wave 4.
Just a possibility - not set in stone so DYOR

Thanks Jackozy, I'll certainly keep a look out for that area from now on and cross reference it with other possible resistance, and also watch price action more carefully.

I think the theory behind my trade today was ok, but my trigger happy early entry was rather poor. It's a lesson I am going to have to learn, and learn faster than I am doing!

Hi GC25,

I know it's already past the 61.8% Fib so this could be considered a little hindsight analysis but I've been really short of time lately so couldn't post this yesterday sorry.

Anyway, I remember a poster on here by the nickname of Ki who seemed very good at FX trading and he mentioned the frequency that the 78.6% Fib gets played rather than the 61.8% Fib which we normally see in stocks. Bearing that in mind, my view on this pair is that it's either going to make new highs (could the last drop have been a wave 4?), or the place to short it is in the 101.59 area.

101.59 is the 78.6% Fib and also the area which would backtest the old uptrend support in a few days' time. The key for me is whether the daily RSI is at its resistance at the time the price gets to that level. If it is then I'll short it but if the RSI is still short of its resistance trendline then I think it'll make new highs. Here's the daily chart highlighting those areas:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily02_07_13.gif

Short from 9977 with a 50 point stop and 100 target.

Based on analysis from yesterday. Previous S/R level & 61.8% fib from recent high to low (May - June move)

possibly preemptive, but I believe this could top here for the short term.

I am thinking the 9993/10000 level is a good level to go short for a first touch shorter term trade.

Previous S/R level's plus the 61.8% high to low retracement level and close proximity to a massive round number (10,000)