In the last post I suggested that the breakout may be false due to the earlier breakout of price than RSI but clearly I was wrong on this occasion and HOIL has gone on to break 161p today to form a higher high.The only issues to bear in mind here are the gap at 170.2p and the fact that it's put on a fair bit without any consolidation. Having said that, it may be a wave 3 since it came from a higher low so it ought to be a strong move if bullish rather than corrective.Looks good for now but let's see what happens at the gap. Original link...

Just a quick one here. There's a gap at 169.7p which should prove resistance if it hasn't already been close enough.I'm not yet convinced that this whole move up is the start of a new trend. It looks very much like a 3 wave corrective move so far. We can't know that for sure unless there's a drop below the higher low of 127.5p but if that gap holds and it then goes below 140.75p it'll look odds on for that to happen IMHO. Original link...

I didn't get my target entry of 53p on this so I've stayed out despite the higher low and higher high forming.My reason for this was the proximity of the downtrend resistance and the 72/3p previous price support to that breakout level and indeed today we have a bearish engulfing candle right off the convergence between the short term downtrend and the old medium term uptrend as well as that 72/3p level just above.The fact that it also closed below the 68.5p high leaves that whole move up from 56p as a 3 wave move and therefore more likely to have been the 4th wave up of a 5 wave sequence down IMHO. If that's the case I may yet get my 53p entry.Watch out for that short term RSI support to come into play of it does hit that  Original link...

Here's the Dow futures 4 hour chart showing a wave count for what I believe to be the 5th wave up in the sequence from June 2012. This covers the period from the cash chart trendline bounce in the last blog update.The wave 2 has a 50% retrace (it was a lot less on the cash chart as it often is for futures corrective waves) and the spike up to the main downtrend resulted in a perfect 61.8% retracement to from what I think is wave ii of 3 in  this sequence.This makes sense from a logic point of view since the next wave, iii of 3, ought to be the most powerful and that would coincide with a trendline break from which we'd expect a strong move anyway. I would expect overnight futures tonight to go no lower than 15040 of this is to play out and that level...

Another index doji on the Dow Jones yesterday as it was sandwiched perfectly between the 15340 resistance and the last breakout point of 15262.This should now go on to new highs but it will be volatile so beware and a correction is due shortly thereafter too. Original link...