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Centrica plc (CNA.L) - Company Research

Last Updated: 19 September 2026

Centrica plc is the FTSE 100 integrated energy company behind British Gas, Bord Gáis Energy, a substantial commodity trading and optimisation arm, and a fast-growing portfolio of energy infrastructure that now includes a 15% stake in Sizewell C, half of the Isle of Grain LNG terminal, a 20% interest in the UK's operating nuclear fleet and the Rough gas storage facility. The company restructured its reporting in February 2026 into three segments — Retail, Optimisation and Infrastructure — and is midway through a deliberate pivot from volatile supply and trading earnings towards contracted and regulated returns. This report is built on Centrica's own audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, and live market data on the date stated. No analyst ratings or price targets are used anywhere in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
Legal nameCentrica plc, registered in England and Wales number 03033654
Ticker / exchangeCNA, London Stock Exchange Main Market
Index membershipFTSE 100, FTSE 350, FTSE All-Share
SectorGas, water and multi-utilities — integrated energy supply, optimisation and infrastructure
Head officeMillstream, Maidenhead Road, Windsor, Berkshire, UK
Fiscal year end31 December
Market capApproximately £6.97bn (19 September 2026, share price 150.90p against 4,619,435,258 shares carrying voting rights)
Shares in issue5,064,902,964 ordinary shares issued at 30 June 2026, of which 445,467,706 held in treasury
Revenue (FY2025, statutory)£19,492m total Group revenue (FY2024: £19,913m). On Centrica's own business performance basis, which grosses up certain commodity contracts, the figure was £22,365m.
Result attributable to shareholders (FY2025)Loss of £72m, against a £1,332m profit in FY2024
Adjusted operating profit (FY2025)£814m, against £1,552m in FY2024; adjusted EBITDA £1,417m
Adjusted net cash£1,487m at 31 December 2025 (FY2024: £2,858m); £709m at 30 June 2026
EmployeesApproximately 22,000 worldwide, including more than 7,000 field service engineers, per the 2026 Corporate Factsheet
CEO / LeadershipChris O'Shea, Group Chief Executive since 2020, having joined as Chief Financial Officer in 2018; Russell O'Brien, Group Chief Financial Officer since March 2023; Kevin O'Byrne, Chair since December 2024

Live price action for Centrica and the wider UK utilities sector can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • A genuine pivot to contracted earnings: Sizewell C at a 10.8% allowed real return on equity fixed through construction, a 50% share of the Isle of Grain LNG terminal contracted to 2045 on over half its capacity, and a meter asset provider business with more than 1.6m meters together build a long-duration earnings base that did not exist three years ago.
  • Dividend growth through a reported loss: The FY2025 total dividend rose 22% to 5.5p despite a statutory loss, and the 2026 interim was lifted a further 9% to 2.0p, signalling that the board views underlying cash generation as materially stronger than the headline result.
  • A completed buyback that meaningfully shrank the share count: The £2bn programme that ran from late 2022 to January 2026 retired roughly 25% of the share capital at an average price of 136p, well below the current share price.
  • Clearer medium-term targets: Management has replaced range-based operating profit guidance with adjusted EBITDA targets of £1.7bn by the end of 2028 and £2.0bn by 2030, alongside a stated ambition to double earnings per share by 2030.
  • Nuclear life extensions add volume at low marginal cost: Extensions agreed for Heysham 1 and Hartlepool to March 2028, and Heysham 2 and Torness to March 2030, are expected to add roughly 12TWh of generation across 2026 to 2030 from an already-built asset base.

Bear Case

  • FY2025 swung to a statutory loss: A £72m attributable loss and statutory earnings per share of negative 1.5p compares with a £1,332m profit and 25.7p a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share also fell sharply from 19.0p to 11.2p.
  • The buyback was paused the moment it finished: With the £2bn programme complete in January 2026, the board chose to redirect capital to Sizewell C and Grain LNG rather than start a new tranche, removing the most visible support for the shares.
  • British Gas has lost the number one position: Octopus Energy is now the UK's largest domestic energy supplier, and Centrica's UK home energy accounts slipped from 7.50m at the end of 2025 to 7.45m by mid-2026.
  • Trading profits are normalising downwards: Optimisation adjusted EBITDA fell from £381m in FY2024 to £196m in FY2025, and the first-half 2026 result missed market expectations on both profit and revenue, with the shares falling on the day.
  • Customer bad debt is rising fast: The UK residential bad debt charge reached £216m in the first half of 2026, up 36% year on year, with outstanding billed and unbilled customer debt reaching around £2bn ahead of a winter in which the price cap has risen.

3. Revenue Segments

Centrica restated its segmental reporting with the FY2025 results announced on 19 February 2026, replacing the previous British Gas Energy, British Gas Services and Solutions, Bord Gáis Energy, Centrica Business Solutions, Centrica Energy and Infrastructure structure with three segments. The percentages below are calculated against statutory total Group revenue of £19,492m for FY2025, as disclosed in note 4 of the annual report.

Segment% of revenue (FY2025)What it is
Retail82.4% (£16,060m)Supply of gas and electricity to residential and business customers in the UK and Republic of Ireland under the British Gas and Bord Gáis Energy brands, plus installation, repair and maintenance of heating systems, smart meters, fixed-fee service and insurance contracts, and energy solutions for large organisations. Adjusted operating profit of £424m.
Optimisation16.7% (£3,264m)Procurement, trading and optimisation of energy across the UK and Europe, plus global LNG procurement and sale. Adjusted operating profit of £155m, down from £339m. Much of this segment's economic income arrives through derivative re-measurement rather than the statutory revenue line.
Infrastructure0.9% (£168m)Gas and liquids production through Spirit Energy, the 20% interest in the UK nuclear fleet, Sizewell C, the Isle of Grain LNG terminal, Rough gas storage and the UK meter asset provider business. Adjusted operating profit of £314m on a very small statutory revenue base, because most of the value arrives as equity-accounted joint venture results rather than third-party revenue.

The revenue split is heavily skewed towards Retail, but profit is not. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, Retail contributed £574m, Infrastructure £728m and Optimisation £196m of the £1,417m Group total, with a £81m deduction for colleague profit share and a meter asset provider consolidation adjustment. Infrastructure is therefore the largest profit pool despite generating under one percent of statutory revenue.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Centrica earns from three distinct engines. Retail buys wholesale gas and power, hedges it, and sells it to roughly 7.45m UK home energy accounts and a large business customer base at prices constrained by the Ofgem default tariff cap, earning a thin regulated margin plus service and insurance income. Optimisation makes money from the spread between physical assets, storage, LNG cargoes and forward market positions. Infrastructure earns returns on owned and equity-accounted assets, increasingly under regulated or long-term contracted frameworks.

Where the moat sits. The durable advantages are scale in UK retail, an installed base of more than 7,000 field service engineers that no pure-play digital supplier replicates, and privileged access to hard-to-build energy assets. The 20% nuclear stake, the Rough storage facility and now Sizewell C and Grain LNG are positions that cannot be recreated by a new entrant at any price, because the assets are either unique or effectively unconsentable today.

Why the earnings mix is changing. The exceptional profits of 2022 and 2023 came from commodity dislocation, and management has been explicit that those conditions are normalising. The response has been to redeploy that windfall into assets whose returns are set by contract or regulation rather than by the gas curve. Sizewell C carries a 10.8% allowed real return on equity fixed through construction, capped at £1.3bn of Centrica funding to the end of 2028, with an expected regulated asset base of £8bn at commercial operations. Grain LNG is fully contracted to 2029 and more than half contracted to 2045.

What constrains it. Retail margin is capped by regulation, not competition, and the cap moves quarterly. That places a hard ceiling on the segment's upside regardless of how well it executes, and explains why management guides Retail adjusted EBITDA to a £500m to £800m range rather than a growth trajectory.

5. Financial Health

The revenue figures below are statutory total Group revenue as reported in the Group Income Statement, consistently across all years shown. Centrica also publishes a higher business performance revenue measure — £22,365m for FY2025 against the statutory £19,492m — which grosses up revenue on contracts falling within the scope of IFRS 9. FY2021 is excluded because a comparable statutory revenue figure on the current presentation basis was not obtainable from primary sources; the company's own five-year summary publishes only the business performance measure for that year.

Fiscal YearRevenue (£m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY2022 (to 31 Dec 2022)23,741n/a †-13.3p34.9p3.0p£3,008m
FY2023 (to 31 Dec 2023)26,458+11.4%70.6p33.4p4.0p£3,101m
FY2024 (to 31 Dec 2024)19,913-24.7%25.7p19.0p4.5p£2,658m
FY2025 (to 31 Dec 2025)19,492-2.1%-1.5p11.2p5.5p£2,624m

† A year-on-year growth rate for FY2022 is not shown because the FY2021 statutory revenue comparative on the current presentation basis was not obtainable from a primary source. Long-term debt is the non-current bank loans and other borrowings line from each year's Group Balance Sheet: £3,008m and £3,101m from the 2023 Annual Report and Accounts for FY2022 and FY2023 respectively, and £2,658m and £2,624m from the 2025 Annual Report and Accounts for FY2024 and FY2025. Current bank overdrafts, loans and other borrowings were a further £232m at 31 December 2025, of which £35m were overdrafts. Adjusted earnings per share is Centrica's own adjusted basic earnings per ordinary share as published in its five-year summary.

Centrica reports half-yearly. The table below is presented most recent first; the second-half 2025 line is derived by deducting the reported first half from the reported full year rather than separately published.

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
H1 2026 (6m to 30 Jun 2026)£10,181m6.8p11.7p
H2 2025 (6m to 31 Dec 2025) ‡£9,368m4.2p3.6p
H1 2025 (6m to 30 Jun 2025)£10,124m7.0p-5.1p
FY2025 total (12m to 31 Dec 2025)£19,492m11.2p-1.5p

‡ Derived by subtraction from the reported full year and first half; not separately published by the company. The swing in statutory earnings per share between halves illustrates how heavily the reported figure is driven by derivative re-measurement rather than trading performance: the first half of 2026 carried a net pre-tax profit of £142m from re-measurements and £71m of exceptional income within statutory operating profit.

Turning to cash and the balance sheet at 31 December 2025, all taken directly from the Group Cash Flow Statement and Group Balance Sheet in the 2025 Annual Report and Accounts. Net cash flow from operating activities was £695m against £1,149m in FY2024. Purchases of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets were £554m. Depreciation and amortisation added back in the cash flow statement was £428m against £473m. Group operating profit was £106m on a statutory basis and £814m adjusted, the £708m gap being exceptional items and certain re-measurements including roughly £0.5bn of impairments across late-life gas fields and the nuclear investment. Cash and cash equivalents stood at £4,307m with securities of £105m non-current and £2m current, against total borrowings of £2,856m. Net assets were £3,496m including £411m of non-controlling interests, and the IAS 19 pension position was a £295m deficit against a £21m deficit a year earlier. Note that Centrica's own headline capital investment figure of £1.2bn for FY2025 is larger than the £554m cash flow statement capital expenditure line because it includes equity investments in joint ventures and associates such as Sizewell C and Grain LNG.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Market capApproximately £6.97bn (19 September 2026, 150.90p against 4,619,435,258 shares carrying voting rights)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)n/m — FY2025 statutory basic earnings per share was negative 1.5p, so a trailing multiple on reported earnings is not meaningful. On Centrica's own adjusted basic earnings per share of 11.2p, 150.90p implies approximately 13.5x; annualising the 6.8p adjusted first-half 2026 figure would imply roughly 11x.
P/E (forward)n/a — Centrica does not publish earnings per share guidance and no reliable published consensus figure was located. The company's stated ambition is to double earnings per share by 2030, with adjusted EBITDA targets of £1.7bn by the end of 2028 and £2.0bn by 2030.
P/S (TTM)0.36x (market cap approximately £6.97bn divided by FY2025 statutory revenue of £19,492m). On the business performance revenue measure of £22,365m it would be 0.31x.
Enterprise valueApproximately £5.41bn (market cap approximately £6.97bn plus total debt £2.86bn less cash and securities £4.41bn, per the 31 December 2025 Group Balance Sheet). Total debt comprises £2,624m of non-current bank loans and other borrowings plus £232m of current bank overdrafts, loans and other borrowings. Cash comprises £4,307m of cash and cash equivalents plus £105m non-current and £2m current securities.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)10.1x on a strict GAAP basis (enterprise value approximately £5.41bn divided by EBITDA of approximately £0.53bn; EBITDA = statutory Group operating profit £106m plus depreciation and amortisation £428m from the cash flow statement). This is heavily distorted: statutory operating profit is suppressed by £708m of exceptional items and certain re-measurements, including roughly £0.5bn of impairments. Against Centrica's own reported adjusted EBITDA of £1,417m the same enterprise value gives approximately 3.8x. The cash flow statement add-back is the only depreciation and amortisation figure disclosed, so no wider segment-note total was available.
P/FCF49.4x (market cap approximately £6.97bn divided by free cash flow of approximately £0.14bn; free cash flow = operating cash flow £695m less capital expenditure £554m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). Centrica's own reported free cash flow measure for FY2025 was an outflow of £167m, because it also deducts equity investment in Sizewell C and Grain LNG.
Price/book2.0x (market cap approximately £6.97bn against net assets of £3,496m at 31 December 2025, which include £411m of non-controlling interests; against shareholders' equity alone of £3,085m the multiple is 2.3x)
Dividend yield3.6% on the FY2025 total dividend of 5.5p at 150.90p. The 2026 interim of 2.0p was paid on 22 September 2026.
52-week high220.23p (07 April 2026)
52-week low145.80p (15 September 2026)
Short interest (% of float)n/a — not published for this period. Under the FCA's Short Selling Regulations 2025, which took effect on 13 July 2026, the regulator stopped publishing individual net short positions by holder and now publishes only anonymised aggregate positions by issuer, with a second phase due on 30 November 2026. No current aggregate figure for Centrica was obtainable from either the FCA register or shortselling.uk. Verify on the FCA short position disclosure register.
Days to covern/a — not published for this period. Neither the FCA aggregate disclosure nor the London Stock Exchange short position tracker publishes a days-to-cover statistic for UK-listed shares. Verify on the FCA short position disclosure register.

7. What Are They Building

Sizewell C. Centrica completed its 15% equity investment in November 2025 with an initial £376m outlay, funding the pre-financial-close regulated asset base value plus some 2026 construction costs. Total funding is capped at £1.3bn through to the end of 2028, with cumulative investment expected to reach £500m to £600m by that date. The allowed real return on equity is 10.8%, fixed through construction, which the company says supports an internal rate of return above 12%, against an expected regulated asset base of £8bn at commercial operations.

Isle of Grain LNG. The 50% stake acquired alongside Energy Capital Partners from National Grid completed on 28 November 2025 at an enterprise value of £1.5bn. Centrica's equity contribution was approximately £200m, with £1.1bn of new non-recourse project debt. The terminal is fully contracted to 2029, more than 70% contracted to 2038 and more than 50% to 2045.

Nuclear. Beyond the existing 20% interest in the operating fleet, Centrica and EDF agreed further life extensions in September 2025 taking Heysham 1 and Hartlepool to March 2028 and Heysham 2 and Torness to March 2030, backed by £1.2bn of joint investment across 2026 to 2028. Roughly 12TWh of incremental generation is expected across 2026 to 2030. In June 2026 reports emerged of a near-agreement with government to extend Sizewell B's life by twenty years. On 15 September 2026 Centrica and X-energy confirmed that UK regulators will begin a design review of the Xe-100 advanced modular reactor.

Rough. Centrica halted gas injections at the Rough storage facility in July 2025, citing projected operating losses of £50m to £100m. It has offered a £2bn redevelopment to take capacity to roughly 120 billion cubic feet and convert the site to hydrogen storage in the early 2030s, but states it cannot proceed without a government-backed regulatory model. Talks with ministers continue, and the facility is guided to be around break-even in 2026.

Meter assets and renewables. The meter asset provider business now manages more than 1.6m meters and is described by management as the fastest growing in the UK. Centrica Energy continues to contract battery storage, including a partial tolling agreement signed on 10 September 2026 for the 125MW and 300MWh Karppio project in Finland.

Targets and capital plan. Group adjusted EBITDA is targeted at £1.7bn by the end of 2028 and £2.0bn by 2030, with the 2030 figure explicitly conditioned on nuclear life extensions that have not yet been approved. Capital investment guidance for 2026 is at least £0.7bn, with £698m already spent in the first half. A transformation programme spanning customer service, supply chain and workforce is running ahead of schedule and weighing on near-term earnings.

8. Competitive Landscape

Centrica competes on two fronts that barely overlap: UK household energy supply, where the competitor set is retail-only and increasingly digital, and energy infrastructure, where the peer set is capital-intensive European utilities. Market capitalisations below were checked in mid-September 2026.

PeerMarket cap (September 2026)Key 2025 metric
National Grid plc (NG.L)Approximately £77bn to £78.5bnThe UK's dominant regulated electricity transmission owner; it sold Centrica its 50% Grain LNG interest in a transaction with an enterprise value of £1.5bn that completed on 28 November 2025 (Centrica completion announcement)
SSE plc (SSE.L)Approximately £29bn to £30bnThe largest UK-listed renewables and networks generator, trading in a 52-week range of 1,651.53p to 2,766.98p through to 18 September 2026 (exchange price history)
E.ON SEApproximately €46.1bn (14 September 2026)The largest European energy retailer and distribution network operator by customer numbers, and Centrica's principal continental-scale comparator in combined retail and networks
Drax Group plc (DRX.L)Approximately £2.4bn to £2.7bn (quoted in the range of 3.3bn to 3.65bn US dollars)UK biomass and flexible generation operator, trading in a 52-week range of 660.76p to 937.31p through to 18 September 2026 (exchange price history)
Octopus Energy (private, no listing)Not listedNow the UK's largest domestic energy supplier, serving more than 8m UK customers as at April 2026 and roughly a quarter of British households, having overtaken British Gas (Octopus Energy press releases)

The competitive fact that matters most is the last row. Octopus overtaking British Gas as the UK's largest domestic supplier ends a position British Gas had held since retail market liberalisation, and it happened while Centrica's accounts slipped from 7.50m to 7.45m. Centrica's answer is not to fight for share at any price but to move profit towards Infrastructure, which is why that segment now produces the largest adjusted EBITDA contribution despite generating under one percent of statutory revenue.

9. Insider Activity

Insider dealing at Centrica during 2026 has been almost entirely routine. Every transaction identified in regulatory director and person-discharging-managerial-responsibility notifications was a small acquisition under the company's Share Incentive Plan or a share purchase agreement, executed by Equiniti Share Plan Trustees rather than as discretionary open-market dealing, and no disclosed director sale of any size was identified. Group Chief Executive Chris O'Shea participates in the plan on the same terms as other employees, acquiring 110 shares in July 2026 at a cost of under £200, and made no discretionary purchase or disposal.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Directors, aggregated notification10 Sep 2026Buy121152.20p£184.12Share Incentive Plan, routine periodic acquisition
Chris O'Shea, Group Chief Executive13 Jul 2026Buy110170.90p£187.97Share Incentive Plan via Equiniti Share Plan Trustees
Russell O'Brien, Group Chief Financial Officer13 Jul 2026Buy109170.90p£186.26Share Incentive Plan via Equiniti Share Plan Trustees
Mastiaux, non-executive director21 Feb 2026Buy1,244199.15p£2,477.43Share purchase agreement
Whalley, non-executive director21 Feb 2026Buy490199.15p£975.84Share purchase agreement referencing an agreement dated 8 September 2025

The absence of discretionary buying is as notable as the absence of selling. Where Centrica has deployed capital into its own equity it has done so at the corporate level, through the £2bn buyback completed in January 2026 at an average price of 136p, rather than through individual director purchases.

10. Key Risks

  • Regulated margin compression in Retail: Ofgem set the default tariff cap at £1,723 for a typical dual-fuel direct debit household for 1 October to 31 December 2026. Retail earnings before interest and tax margin fell to 3.1% in the first half of 2026 from an elevated 4.6% a year earlier, and the cap places a hard ceiling on the segment regardless of execution.
  • Trading earnings normalisation: Optimisation adjusted EBITDA fell from £381m in FY2024 to £196m in FY2025, and management has guided the segment to a £300m to £400m range. The exceptional 2022 and 2023 commodity profits are not repeatable, and the segment's contribution is inherently volatile year to year.
  • Rising customer bad debt: The UK residential bad debt charge was £216m in the first half of 2026, up 36%, with outstanding billed and unbilled customer debt reaching around £2bn. FY2025 credit losses on UK residential billed trade receivables were £1,038m against £799m a year earlier, and the October 2026 cap increase raises the risk of further deterioration.
  • Rough policy and economics unresolved: Rough has been running at a projected £50m to £100m annual operating loss with gas injections halted since July 2025. The proposed £2bn hydrogen redevelopment is entirely contingent on government establishing a regulatory support model, and no decision has been made.
  • Sizewell C construction and capital risk: A £1.3bn capped equity commitment to a first-of-a-kind nuclear new build carries construction, schedule and cost-overrun exposure over a multi-decade horizon, even with a regulated allowed return.
  • Company-disclosed contingency on the 2030 target: Management states explicitly that the £2.0bn adjusted EBITDA target for 2030 depends on nuclear life extensions that are yet to be approved, making a headline target conditional on a third-party regulatory decision.
  • Structural share loss in UK retail: Octopus Energy has overtaken British Gas as the UK's largest domestic supplier and Centrica's home energy accounts are declining, which erodes the customer base that underpins both supply margin and the services and insurance cross-sell.
  • Political and fiscal intervention: UK energy companies remain exposed to windfall taxation, price cap methodology changes and social tariff proposals, all of which are set politically rather than commercially. The government's temporary removal of VAT on domestic electricity from 1 October 2026 is an example of how quickly the fiscal framework around household energy can be rewritten.

11. Recent Developments

  • 17 Sep 2026 — Centrica publishes report on grid connection delays. The company released research arguing that time-to-power constraints on grid connections are holding back UK economic growth, part of a continuing effort to shape energy infrastructure policy.
  • 15 Sep 2026 — UK regulators to begin design review of the Xe-100 reactor. Centrica's partnership with X-energy to explore deploying advanced modular reactors in the UK moved into the formal regulatory design review stage.
  • 10 Sep 2026 — Battery storage tolling agreement signed in Finland. Centrica Energy and Delta Capacity agreed a partial tolling arrangement for the 125MW and 300MWh Karppio battery project.
  • 26 Aug 2026 — Ofgem confirmed the October price cap. The default tariff cap was set at £1,723 for a typical dual-fuel direct debit household for the period 1 October to 31 December 2026.
  • 23 Jul 2026 — First-half 2026 results published. Adjusted EBITDA of £737m against £900m a year earlier, statutory revenue of £10,181m, adjusted earnings per share of 6.8p, statutory earnings per share of 11.7p and an interim dividend raised 9% to 2.0p. Both profit and revenue came in below market expectations and the shares fell on the release.
  • 19 Feb 2026 — FY2025 preliminary results and strategic reset. A statutory attributable loss of £72m and statutory earnings per share of negative 1.5p, adjusted earnings per share of 11.2p, a full-year dividend up 22% to 5.5p, the completion and pausing of the buyback, new adjusted EBITDA targets of £1.7bn by 2028 and £2.0bn by 2030, and re-segmentation into Retail, Optimisation and Infrastructure.
  • 28 Nov 2025 — Grain LNG acquisition completed. Centrica took a 50% stake alongside Energy Capital Partners at an enterprise value of £1.5bn, funded with approximately £200m of equity and £1.1bn of non-recourse project debt.
  • 02 Sep 2025 — Further nuclear life extensions agreed. Heysham 1 and Hartlepool were extended to March 2028, with Heysham 2 and Torness reconfirmed to March 2030, expected to add roughly 12TWh of generation across 2026 to 2030.
  • 31 Jul 2025 — Gas injections halted at Rough. Centrica stopped injecting gas into the Rough storage facility citing projected 2025 operating losses of £50m to £100m, with operational consent extended only to 30 April 2026 pending a government decision on long-term support.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 22 Sep 2026 — payment date for the 2.0p 2026 interim dividend, which went ex-dividend on 20 August 2026 with a record date of 21 August 2026
  • 28 Oct 2026 — UK Autumn Budget, alongside an Office for Budget Responsibility forecast; energy taxation, the Energy Profits Levy and household energy support measures are recurring variables for Centrica
  • 05 Nov 2026 — Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision, published with a Monetary Policy Report
  • 25 Nov 2026 — latest date by which Ofgem must announce the default tariff cap for January to March 2027, the single most important scheduled input to Retail margin
  • 17 Dec 2026 — Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision
  • Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 preliminary results; Centrica has not published a confirmed date and its financial calendar page did not render a 2027 entry at the time of writing, with the FY2025 equivalent released on 19 February 2026
  • Expected May 2027 — Annual General Meeting and accompanying trading statement, based on the company's established cadence
  • TBC — UK government decision on a regulatory support model for the proposed £2bn Rough redevelopment and hydrogen conversion, on which the facility's long-term future depends

Ofgem cap announcements, Bank of England decisions and UK macroeconomic releases are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and readers can discuss the UK utilities sector on the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Weak
36 / 100

The central thesis. Centrica is an integrated UK energy company that earns from three engines: Retail, which supplies roughly 7.45m UK home energy accounts under the British Gas and Bord Gáis brands at a margin capped by Ofgem and contributed 82.4% of FY2025 statutory revenue; Optimisation, which trades and optimises energy and LNG; and Infrastructure, which produces under 1% of revenue but the largest share of profit. For the year to 31 December 2025 statutory revenue was £19,492m, the group swung to a £72m attributable loss and statutory earnings per share of negative 1.5p, while adjusted earnings per share fell to 11.2p from 19.0p, yet the dividend still rose 22% to 5.5p. Management has set adjusted EBITDA targets of £1.7bn by the end of 2028 and £2.0bn by 2030, funded by a deliberate redeployment of the 2022–23 commodity windfall into Sizewell C at a 10.8% allowed real return, a 50% stake in Grain LNG contracted out to 2045, and a meter asset business now past 1.6m meters.

What would confirm or break it. The thesis is confirmed if Infrastructure delivers the guided £650–750m of adjusted EBITDA, the Sizewell C and Grain LNG returns show up in reported earnings rather than only in capital commitments, and the board restarts capital returns once the investment wave is funded. It is invalidated if Ofgem cap settings keep Retail margin below the £500–800m guidance range, if the £216m first-half bad debt charge keeps compounding through a higher-priced winter, if the government declines a regulatory support model for Rough, or if the nuclear life extensions on which management explicitly conditions the 2030 target are not approved.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "A genuine pivot to contracted earnings:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Regulated margin compression in Retail:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 5
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Negative
High-sev risks
0 of 8
Recent news
Net downgrades
Generated
19 Sep 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 19 Sep 2026.