PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) — Company Research
Last Updated: 02 Oct 2026
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is a San Jose, California-based digital payments company. eBay spun it off in 2015. Its businesses include:
- the PayPal consumer wallet and branded checkout;
- Venmo;
- Braintree, its unbranded processing service for large merchants;
- buy now, pay later (BNPL) and other consumer credit;
- the PYUSD stablecoin.
In 2025 it processed $1.79 trillion of total payment volume (TPV) across 439m active accounts.
FY2025 revenue rose 4.3% to $33,172m and non-GAAP EPS was $5.31. Enrique Lores became CEO on 01 Mar 2026 and has since reorganised the company and launched a cost programme of at least $1.5bn. Stripe and Advent International offered $60.50 a share in July 2026; the board called the offer inadequate, and the bidders walked away on 27 Aug 2026. The stock closed at $53.06 on 01 Oct 2026, giving a market value of about $45.4bn.
This refresh draws on PayPal earnings releases (SEC 8-K exhibits and PayPal investor relations), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC XBRL company facts and Form 4 filings, all retrieved on 02 Oct 2026. Follow the price on ChartsView Live Charts.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Full name | PayPal Holdings, Inc. |
| Ticker | PYPL (NASDAQ) |
| Sector | Finance & Banking (digital payments) |
| Industry | Payments: digital wallets, merchant processing, peer-to-peer and consumer credit |
| Headquarters | 2211 North First Street, San Jose, California |
| Founded | 1998 (as Confinity); independent public company since the eBay spin-off in Jul 2015 |
| CEO / Leadership | Enrique Lores (President and CEO since 01 Mar 2026); Jamie S. Miller (Chief Financial and Operating Officer); David W. Dorman (independent Chair) |
| Market cap | ~$45.4bn (855.5m shares × $53.06 at the 01 Oct 2026 close) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $33,172m (+4.3% YoY) |
| Net income (FY2025) | GAAP diluted EPS $5.41; non-GAAP EPS $5.31 |
| Employees | About 23,800 at 31 Dec 2025 (about 9,600 in the US), per the FY2025 10-K |
| Dividend | $0.14 per quarter ($0.56 annualised), started in Q4 2025 |
| Scale (FY2025) | TPV $1.79 trillion (+7%); 439m active accounts; transaction margin dollars $15,465m (+6%) |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Distilled from the full report below. Factual only, no ratings.
Bull Case
- Strong cash generation and buybacks: Adjusted free cash flow was $6,411m in FY2025, and the 2026 guidance is $6bn or more. PayPal is buying back $6bn of stock in 2026 ($1.5bn a quarter). Shares outstanding fell from 920m to 862m between Dec 2025 and Jun 2026.
- Guidance raised mid-year: On 28 Jul 2026 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance went up to about $5.38 and transaction margin dollar (TM$) guidance to about $15.6bn. Q2 revenue was $8,682m (+5%) and TPV $486.4bn (+10%).
- Faster-growing businesses: Venmo revenue was about $1.7bn in 2025, up about 20%. BNPL volume passed $40bn in 2025, and Venmo and Braintree TPV both grew at mid-teen rates in Q2 2026.
- Cost programme: PayPal is targeting at least $1.5bn of gross run-rate savings over two to three years. About $400m is expected by the end of 2026.
Bear Case
- Branded checkout barely growing: Branded checkout produces more than half of profit dollars. Its online TPV grew just 1% in Q4 2025 and about 2% (currency-neutral) in H1 2026, and Q3 2026 is guided at 1–2%.
- Margin compression: The transaction margin fell to 44.9% in Q2 2026 from 46.4% a year earlier, and the non-GAAP operating margin fell 248bp to 17.4%. Q2 TM$ grew only 1%, despite 10% TPV growth.
- No takeover bid any more: Stripe and Advent dropped their $60.50-a-share approach on 27 Aug 2026, and the stock fell 12% at the next open. It now trades at about $53.
- Restructuring risk: Reports say about 20% of the workforce is to go over two to three years. Two EVPs have left, and restructuring charges were $187m in H1 2026.
- Regulatory and legal overhangs: The application for a Utah bank (an industrial loan company, or ILC) is pending, and two bank trade groups (BPI and ICBA) have objected to it. On 18 Sep 2026 a law firm opened an investigation into statements made in 2025 about branded checkout.
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
PayPal runs a two-sided payments network. Consumers use the PayPal and Venmo wallets to pay online, in stores and to each other. Merchants accept PayPal branded checkout, or use Braintree and PayPal Complete Payments to process cards. PayPal reports one segment today. On 29 Apr 2026 it reorganised into three businesses, which it plans to report separately from 2027:
- Checkout Solutions & PayPal;
- Consumer Financial Services & Venmo;
- Payment Services & Crypto.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction revenues | 89.8% ($29,798m) | Fees, mostly a percentage of payment value, plus fixed fees, on branded checkout, Braintree/PSP processing, Venmo, cross-border and currency conversion |
| Revenues from other value added services | 10.2% ($3,374m) | Interest on customer balances ($1,230m in FY2025), consumer and merchant credit income, partner fees, referral fees, subscriptions and gateway fees |
FY2025 net revenues were $33,172m, the sum of the four quarterly releases. US revenue was $18,868m (57%) and international revenue $14,304m (43%). PayPal does not split revenue by product. It has said Venmo revenue was about $1.7bn in 2025 and BNPL TPV more than $40bn.
4. The Business Model
How it makes money. PayPal charges merchants a fee on each transaction. Its margin is the gap between those fees and its transaction costs (card network and bank fees) and credit losses, which it reports as transaction margin dollars (TM$). Branded checkout, where the customer clicks a PayPal button, earns the highest rate. Unbranded card processing through Braintree adds volume but at much thinner margins. Interest on customer balances and credit products make up most of the rest.
Where the moat sits. PayPal's advantages are:
- 439m active accounts with stored credentials;
- acceptance at millions of merchants worldwide;
- years of fraud and risk data;
- Venmo's strong position in US peer-to-peer payments.
These network effects are weaker in checkout than they once were. Apple Pay, Google Pay and merchant-owned one-click checkouts compete directly for the same button on the payment page.
What changed in 2025–2026. Alex Chriss was replaced as CEO by board chair Enrique Lores, effective 01 Mar 2026. Lores split the company into three businesses, started a cost programme of at least $1.5bn and wound down PayPal Ventures. A dividend of $0.14 a quarter was introduced in Q4 2025, and buybacks continue at $6bn a year.
5. Financial Health
Sources: PayPal quarterly and annual earnings releases (SEC 8-K exhibits and investor.pypl.com), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC XBRL company facts (data.sec.gov) for revenue, debt, cash flow, D&A and operating income. The fiscal year ends 31 December.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $25,371m | +18.3% | $3.52 | $4.60† | $0.00 | $8,049m |
| FY2022 | $27,518m | +8.5% | $2.09 | $4.13† | $0.00 | $10,417m |
| FY2023 | $29,771m | +8.2% | $3.84 | $3.83 | $0.00 | $9,676m |
| FY2024 | $31,797m | +6.8% | $3.99 | $4.65 | $0.00 | $9,879m |
| FY2025 | $33,172m | +4.3% | $5.41 | $5.31 | $0.14 | $9,987m |
Notes on the annual table:
- Adjusted EPS is PayPal's non-GAAP diluted EPS.
- † FY2021 and FY2022 are on the old basis, which excluded stock-based compensation. Since Feb 2024 non-GAAP EPS has included it. FY2023 is the recast figure, so FY2021–22 are not directly comparable with later years.
- FY2020 revenue was $21,454m, the base for the FY2021 YoY figure.
- Long-term debt is the noncurrent portion at year-end (SEC XBRL tag LongTermDebtNoncurrent). Total debt including the current portion was about $11.6bn at FY2025 year-end.
Quarterly results (most recent first)
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) | $8,682m | $1.38 | $1.25 |
| Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | $8,353m | $1.34 | $1.21 |
| Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | $8,676m | $1.23 | $1.53 |
| Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025) | $8,417m | $1.34 | $1.30 |
| FY2025 total | $33,172m | $5.31 | $5.41 |
Release dates:
- Q2 2026: 28 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026: 05 May 2026
- Q4 2025: 03 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025: 28 Oct 2025
Q2 2026 in more detail: TPV was $486.4bn (+10%), TM$ $3,900m (+1%), GAAP operating margin 16.4% and non-GAAP operating margin 17.4%.
Cash flow and balance sheet.
- Cash flow (FY2025).
- Operating cash flow was $6,416m and capex (purchases of property and equipment) $852m, giving free cash flow of $5,564m. Adjusted FCF was $6,411m.
- D&A was $963m and GAAP operating income $6,065m.
- Cash flow (H1 2026).
- Operating cash flow was $3,117m, capex $439m and D&A $484m.
- Q2 2026 free cash flow was $1,775m, against $692m a year earlier.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was $7,475m and capex $889m.
- Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026.
- Cash and cash equivalents were $8,306m, short-term investments $2,950m and long-term investments $4,009m. PayPal's own measure of cash, cash equivalents and investments was $15.3bn.
- Total debt was $13.4bn: $10,895m long-term plus about $2.5bn of current notes payable.
- FY2026 guidance (raised 28 Jul 2026):
- non-GAAP EPS of about $5.38;
- GAAP EPS down by a mid-single-digit percentage;
- TM$ of about $15.6bn;
- adjusted FCF of $6bn or more;
- buybacks of about $6bn.
6. Valuation & Market Data
Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$45.4bn (855.5m shares × $53.06 at the 01 Oct 2026 close) |
| Enterprise value | ~$47.5bn = market cap ~$45.4bn + total debt ~$13.4bn (long-term $10.9bn + current notes payable ~$2.5bn) − cash and short-term investments ~$11.3bn ($8,306m + $2,950m), per the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet. If the $4.0bn of long-term investments is also deducted, EV is ~$43.5bn. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~10.0x ($53.06 / TTM GAAP diluted EPS of $5.29, Q3 2025 to Q2 2026). TTM non-GAAP EPS is also $5.29, so the adjusted multiple is the same, ~10.0x. |
| P/E (forward) | ~9.9x ($53.06 / company FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of about $5.38) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~1.33x (market cap / TTM revenue of $34,128m, Q3 2025 to Q2 2026) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~6.9x (EV ~$47.5bn / TTM EBITDA ~$6.9bn). EBITDA = TTM GAAP operating income $5,946m (FY2025 $6,065m less H1 2025 $3,034m plus H1 2026 $2,915m) + TTM D&A $963m. Operating income is after $187m of H1 2026 restructuring charges. |
| P/FCF | ~6.9x (market cap ~$45.4bn / TTM FCF ~$6.6bn). FCF = operating cash flow $7,475m − capex $889m (FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026). On FY2025 FCF of $5,564m the multiple is ~8.2x. |
| 52-week high | $79.21 (MarketBeat) |
| 52-week low | $38.46 (MarketBeat) |
| Short interest (% of float) | 3.45% (29.3m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, per MarketBeat). That is down 12.1% from 31 Aug and below the 2026 peak of about 6.3% on 30 Jun. |
| Days to cover | 2.7 (MarketBeat, 15 Sep 2026) |
| Dividend yield | ~1.06% ($0.56 annualised / $53.06) |
Share-price-based metrics use the 01 Oct 2026 close. For live prices see ChartsView Live Charts.
7. What Are They Building
Agentic commerce, where AI assistants buy on a user's behalf.
- Partners: PayPal has deals with OpenAI, Google and Perplexity. Perplexity purchasing went live in late 2025 and Microsoft Copilot is also live.
- ChatGPT: PayPal was the first wallet named for ChatGPT Instant Checkout, which OpenAI launched in Feb 2026. Reports in Mar 2026 said OpenAI had scaled back the feature after weak take-up.
- Cymbio: PayPal bought Cymbio, which distributes merchant product catalogues to AI agents, in Feb 2026.
- Meta: on 22 Sep 2026 PayPal announced checkout inside Meta's Muse AI agent.
- Timing: management has said agentic commerce will not materially affect 2026 growth.
Venmo, BNPL and credit.
- Venmo is moving from free peer-to-peer payments to paid products: Pay with Venmo at merchants, the Venmo debit card, a Google Play launch on 10 Aug 2026 and tuition payments from 19 Aug 2026.
- BNPL TPV passed $40bn in 2025.
- PayPal and Amazon launched BNPL ("PayPal Ratenzahlung") in Germany and Austria on 28 Jul 2026.
PYUSD, PayPal World and PayPal Bank.
- The PYUSD stablecoin has a circulating supply of about $2.7bn, down from more than $4bn earlier in 2026. App-specific PYUSDx tokens launched on 09 Sep 2026.
- PayPal World links wallets across countries. Since 11 Aug 2026, US users can pay at Weixin Pay merchants across China.
- In Dec 2025 PayPal applied to Utah regulators and the FDIC to set up PayPal Bank, a Utah industrial loan company. The bank would lend to small businesses and offer FDIC-insured savings. No decision had been announced at the time of writing.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | Market cap (Oct 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Visa (V) | ~$675.6bn | FY2025 (Sep year-end) net revenue about $40bn, +11% (Visa Q4 FY2025 release on SEC) |
| Mastercard (MA) | ~$481.8bn | FY2025 net revenue +16%; net income $15.0bn; diluted EPS $16.52 (Mastercard Q4 2025 release) |
| Block (XYZ) | ~$44.5bn | FY2025 gross profit $10.36bn, +17% (Block Q4 2025 results) |
| Adyen (ADYEN) | ~$30.5bn | FY2025 net revenue €2,364.2m, +18% (Adyen H2 2025 results) |
| Fiserv (FISV) | ~$24.0bn | FY2025 GAAP revenue $21.19bn, +4% (Fiserv FY2025 results) |
| Affirm (AFRM) | ~$23.2bn | Fiscal Q4 2025 (Jun) GMV $10.4bn, +43% (Affirm shareholder letter on SEC) |
Market caps are from companiesmarketcap.com, 30 Sep to 01 Oct 2026. Stripe, which is private, was valued at about $159bn in a Feb 2026 tender offer and processed $1.9 trillion of payment volume in 2025 (+34%), slightly more than PayPal's $1.79 trillion. Apple Pay and Google Pay are the main wallet competitors in checkout but do not report standalone figures.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Enrique Lores, previously CEO of HP Inc. and PayPal's board chair since Jul 2024, became President and CEO on 01 Mar 2026. Jamie S. Miller is Chief Financial and Operating Officer and served as interim CEO between Alex Chriss's exit and Lores's start. David W. Dorman is independent Chair. Lores has received equity awards but has made no open-market purchases. Every open-market insider transaction found in 2026 was a sale; there were no purchases. Insiders own about 0.63% of the shares and institutions about 68%.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Keller (President, Checkout Solutions & PayPal) | 03 Sep 2026 | Sale | 4,612 | ~$55.43 | ~$255,643 | 10b5-1 (adopted 30 Oct 2025) |
| Suzan Kereere (President, Global Markets) | 03 Sep 2026 | Sale | 3,379 | $55.72 | ~$188,278 | Not confirmed |
| Chris Natali (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | 03 Sep 2026 | Sale | 552 | $54.80 | ~$30,250 | 10b5-1 (adopted 18 Nov 2025) |
| Suzan Kereere (President, Global Markets) | 18 Aug 2026 | Sale | 4,162 | ~$60.96 | ~$253,716 | 10b5-1 (adopted 14 Nov 2025) |
| Frank Keller (EVP) | 29 Jul 2026 | Sale | 732 | $58.10 | ~$42,529 | Not confirmed |
| Frank Keller (EVP) | 03 Mar 2026 | Sale | 29,581 | $45.19–$46.82 | ~$1,361,318 | 10b5-1 (adopted 30 Oct 2025) |
| Suzan Kereere (President, Global Markets) | 18 Feb 2026 | Sale | 37,613 | ~$41.49 | ~$1,560,563 | 10b5-1 (adopted 07 Mar 2025) |
Sources: SEC Form 4 filings on EDGAR, with MarketBeat's insider-trade list. Smaller sales by the same officers in Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun and Jul 2026 are not shown.
10. Risks and Challenges
- Branded checkout stagnation (Competitive): Branded checkout makes more than half of profit dollars but is growing only 1–2%. Apple Pay, Google Pay, Shop Pay and merchant one-click flows are competing for the same checkout slot.
- Margin mix (Financial): Unbranded PSP volume, which grew about 13% in Q2 2026, and Venmo are growing faster than branded checkout but earn thinner margins. The transaction margin fell to 44.9% in Q2 2026.
- Interest-rate sensitivity (Macro): Interest on customer balances fell to $281m in Q2 2026 from $318m a year earlier. Lower rates reduce this high-margin income further.
- Cross-border and Europe (Macro): Management said in Sep 2026 that tariffs are hurting China-to-Europe trade volumes. Germany is one of PayPal's largest markets.
- Restructuring execution (Operational): The plan reportedly cuts about 20% of staff over two to three years. Several senior leaders have left and three new business units are being set up, all under a new CEO.
- Credit and regulation (Regulatory): BNPL volume grew about 26% in Q2 2026, which adds credit risk. Other open items:
- the ILC charter application faces opposition from bank trade groups;
- stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act framework;
- consumer-protection oversight;
- the KSF investigation opened on 18 Sep 2026.
- Stablecoin and agentic competition (Competitive): PYUSD supply has fallen to about $2.7bn. A consortium backed by Visa and Stripe launched a rival stablecoin (OUSD) on 30 Sep 2026, and OpenAI has scaled back ChatGPT Instant Checkout.
11. Recent Developments
- 30 Sep 2026 — Rival stablecoin launched. A consortium backed by Visa and Stripe launched the OUSD stablecoin, a direct competitor to PYUSD. The same day PayPal published a holiday-spending survey. The shares closed at $52.53, then rose 1.0% to $53.06 on 01 Oct.
- 22 Sep 2026 — Meta Muse checkout. PayPal checkout was added to Meta's Muse AI agent, PayPal's latest agentic-commerce partnership.
- 18 Sep 2026 — Shareholder investigation. Law firm Kahn Swick & Foti opened an investigation into PayPal's officers and directors over statements made in 2025 about branded checkout.
- 09 Sep 2026 — Goldman Sachs conference. Enrique Lores said guidance was unchanged and that Q3 branded checkout should grow 1–2%. Reporting by the three new businesses starts in 2027. PYUSDx launched the same day.
- 31 Aug 2026 — Layoffs under way. A California WARN notice covers 251 jobs in San Jose, ending 30 Oct 2026. Further cuts were reported in India, Ireland and Israel.
- 27 Aug 2026 — Stripe and Advent walk away. The two bidders ended their pursuit of PayPal. The shares fell 12% at the next open, from a 2026 closing high of $62.30 on 20 Aug.
- 11 Aug 2026 — PayPal World reaches China. US PayPal users can now pay at Weixin Pay merchants across China.
- 28 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $8,682m (+5%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.38. FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to about $5.38 and TM$ guidance to about $15.6bn. BNPL with Amazon launched in Germany and Austria the same day.
- 15 Jul 2026 — Takeover approach reported. Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent had offered $60.50 a share, more than $53bn in total. The board considered the offer inadequate.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
- Expected 27 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results, with the call at 8:00am ET. Market calendars give this date; PayPal had not confirmed it at the time of writing.
- Expected Oct 2026 — Next quarterly dividend ($0.14) declaration with Q3 results. Last year the record date was 19 Nov and the payment date 10 Dec.
- 30 Oct 2026 — End date for the 251 San Jose roles covered by the 31 Aug 2026 WARN notice.
- Expected 03 Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (Morningstar forecast date), including 2027 guidance.
- TBC — Decision by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) and the FDIC on the PayPal Bank industrial loan company application.
Segment reporting for the three new businesses is due to start in 2027. Macro events are on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and you can discuss PayPal on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. PayPal runs a two-sided payments network of 439m active accounts, earning mainly a percentage fee on $1.79 trillion of annual payment volume through branded checkout, Braintree processing, Venmo and BNPL. FY2025 revenue rose 4.3% to $33,172m with non-GAAP EPS of $5.31, and on 28 Jul 2026 management raised FY2026 guidance to non-GAAP EPS of about $5.38 and TM$ of about $15.6bn, alongside $6bn+ of adjusted free cash flow and $6bn of buybacks. The near-term drivers are CEO Enrique Lores's cost programme of at least $1.5bn and faster growth in Venmo, BNPL and PSP volume.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be Q3 2026 results (expected 27 Oct 2026) in line with guidance, branded checkout growth holding at 1–2% or better, and visible savings from the restructuring. The thesis is undermined if branded checkout stalls further against Apple Pay and other wallets, the transaction margin keeps falling, or regulatory issues (the ILC application, BNPL credit and the KSF investigation) escalate now that the Stripe and Advent bid has gone.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (25 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Strong cash generation and buybacks:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Branded checkout stagnation (Competitive):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 2 Oct 2026.