ChartsView - Stock Trading Community

BAE Systems (BA.L) — Company Research

Last Updated: 13 September 2026

BAE Systems plc (LSE: BA) is a FTSE 100 aerospace, defence and security prime, and the largest defence contractor in Europe. It builds and supports combat aircraft, nuclear and conventional submarines, warships, combat vehicles, missiles, electronic warfare systems and satellites, and sells almost exclusively to governments. FY2025, reported on 18 February 2026, set company records: statutory revenue of £28,336m, sales of £30,662m on the company's wider measure, underlying EBIT of £3,322m, underlying EPS of 75.2p, free cash flow of £2,158m and a £83.6bn order backlog on order intake of £36.8bn. The half-year results on 30 July 2026 went further — revenue of £14,615m, underlying EPS of 38.9p, free cash flow of £1,791m against a £368m outflow a year earlier, a record £84.0bn backlog, and an upgrade to every FY2026 guidance metric. The shares, at 1,898p on 11 September 2026, nonetheless sit roughly 20% below their 52-week high of 2,360p. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is building, and what the numbers currently imply — without analyst opinions or price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
Ticker / exchangeBA.L — London Stock Exchange, FTSE 100 constituent (ISIN GB0002634946)
SectorAerospace & Defence
HeadquartersFarnborough, Hampshire, United Kingdom
Formed1999, by the merger of British Aerospace and Marconi Electronic Systems
CEO / LeadershipCharles Woodburn (Chief Executive since July 2017); Brad Greve (Chief Financial Officer); Cressida Hogg (Chair)
Employees112,400 at 30 June 2026 including the Group's share of equity accounted investments (104,000 at 31 December 2025 excluding them, up from 82,000 at end-2021)
Revenue (FY2025, statutory)£28,336m, up 7.7% on FY2024's £26,312m. On the company's wider "sales" measure, which adds its share of equity accounted investments such as MBDA, FY2025 sales were £30,662m
Underlying EBIT (FY2025)£3,322m, a 10.8% return on sales (FY2024: £3,015m, 10.6%)
Net income (FY2025)£2,062m attributable to equity shareholders; basic EPS 68.8p, underlying EPS 75.2p
Share price1,898.0p (close, 11 September 2026)
Market capApproximately £57.0bn, on 3,002,419,258 shares in issue excluding treasury at 31 August 2026. The London Stock Exchange quotes £57.7bn on the gross 3,149,388,041 shares in issue
Order backlog£84.0bn at 30 June 2026, a record, after £83.6bn at 31 December 2025 and £44.0bn at end-2021
Dividend36.3p declared for FY2025, up 10%. 2026 interim of 15.0p declared, payable 2 December 2026
Fiscal year end31 December

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • A backlog that pre-sells years of revenue: the order book stood at a record £84.0bn at 30 June 2026 against trailing twelve-month revenue of roughly £29.4bn, and FY2025 order intake of £36.8bn produced a book-to-bill of 1.2x. Backlog has grown every year since 2021, from £44.0bn to £83.6bn.
  • Management raised guidance on every metric: on 30 July 2026 BAE lifted FY2026 guidance from sales growth of 7–9% to 8–10%, underlying EBIT from 9–11% to 10–12%, underlying EPS from 9–11% to 11–13%, and free cash flow from above £1.3bn to above £2.0bn. Cumulative 2024–2026 free cash flow guidance rose from above £6.0bn to above £6.7bn.
  • Electronic Systems is the margin engine: the segment delivered £1,162m of underlying EBIT on £7,528m of sales in FY2025, a 15.4% return on sales and the Group's highest, driven by electronic warfare, countermeasures and the former Ball Aerospace space business now trading as Space & Mission Systems.
  • Cash conversion funds a rising dividend and a buyback simultaneously: FY2025 free cash flow of £2,158m supported £1,529m of total shareholder returns. A third tranche of the up-to-£1.5bn buyback started on 22 June 2026 for up to £500m, and £933m was returned in H1 2026 alone, up 10% year on year.
  • Programme wins are long-dated and sovereign: the half year brought a £5.9bn Dreadnought contract, over £5bn of first international GCAP contracts through the Edgewing joint venture, a seven-year THAAD seeker framework with the US Department of War, and the £4.6bn Türkiye Typhoon programme signed in October 2025 with first delivery in 2030.

Bear Case

  • The shares de-rate on the threat environment, not the earnings: despite raising guidance across the board, the stock at 1,898p is about 20% below its 52-week high of 2,360p and the 52-week low of 1,529p is recent history. The equity is being priced on expectations about geopolitics, which can move faster and further than the order book.
  • Maritime is the margin problem: in FY2025 Maritime was the only segment whose profit fell, with underlying EBIT down 3% to £457m on sales up 11%, return on sales down to 6.7% from 7.7%, and order intake collapsing to £5.0bn from £8.7bn, cutting segment backlog to £21.3bn from £23.2bn. It is also the largest segment by headcount at 31,900.
  • Cash flow is flattered by customer advances: H1 2026 free cash flow of £1,791m was driven by roughly £1.6bn of net customer advances including MBDA; the prior-year comparative was a £368m outflow. FY2025's £2,158m likewise reflected advances received late in the year. This is timing, and timing reverses.
  • Leverage and intangibles from the Ball acquisition still sit on the balance sheet: non-current borrowings were £6,686m at 30 June 2026 against £4,432m before the $5.5bn deal, goodwill stands at £12,732m, and amortisation of acquired intangibles and impairments rose £70m to £414m in FY2025 on a full year of Space & Mission Systems.

3. Revenue Segments

BAE reports through five operating segments plus HQ. The table below is on the statutory IFRS revenue basis totalling £28,336m for FY2025; the company also publishes a wider "sales" figure of £30,662m that adds its share of equity accounted investments, chiefly the 37.5% MBDA missiles holding, which is why segment sales and segment revenue differ for Air in particular.

Segment% of revenueWhat it is
Electronic Systems26.5% (£7,507m)Electronic warfare, countermeasures, precision guidance, controls and avionics in the US and UK, plus Space & Mission Systems, the former Ball Aerospace. FY2025 operating profit £863m; highest underlying return on sales in the Group at 15.4%
Air26.0% (£7,372m)Typhoon, F-35 rear fuselage production, GCAP via the Edgewing joint venture, Saudi Arabia support, and the MBDA interest. FY2025 operating profit £1,078m on a 14.6% return on revenue; segment backlog £32.6bn
Maritime23.2% (£6,579m)Astute, Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS submarines, Type 26 frigates, naval guns and Australian shipbuilding. FY2025 operating profit £431m on a 6.6% return; 31,900 employees, the largest segment workforce
Platforms & Services17.7% (£5,021m)Combat vehicles and munitions in the US, Sweden and the UK — Bradley, AMPV, M109A7 Paladin, CV90 and BVS10 through Hägglunds, and ARCHER artillery through Bofors. FY2025 operating profit £576m
Cyber & Intelligence8.5% (£2,397m)US Intelligence & Security and UK-headquartered Digital Intelligence. FY2025 operating profit £182m; 10,500 employees; FY2025 growth came predominantly from counter-drone work
HQ and eliminations−1.9% (£540m net)Head office costs of £205m against £52m of revenue, plus £592m of intra-group eliminations

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. BAE sells long-duration programmes to sovereign customers, then earns again for decades supporting what it sold. Revenue is recognised progressively as work is performed against contracted cost estimates, so the £84.0bn backlog converts into revenue over many years rather than in a single sales cycle. Roughly a fifth of FY2025 sales came from US Department of Defense platforms, with the balance spread across the UK, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Australia and a fast-growing European base where CV90 and BVS10 drove 32% growth in FY2025.

Why the position is defensible. The moat is regulatory and physical rather than technological alone. BAE is one of very few companies cleared to work on UK and US nuclear submarine propulsion and the nuclear deterrent, and it owns the industrial estate that goes with it — Barrow-in-Furness, Govan and Scotstoun, Warton, Bofors and Hägglunds. A competitor cannot bid for Dreadnought without building the docks, the security clearances and the welders first, which is why the £5.9bn Dreadnought award in H1 2026 was not a competitive tender in any meaningful sense.

Unit economics and mix. Underlying return on sales was 10.8% in FY2025, but the spread across the business is wide: 15.4% in Electronic Systems against 6.7% in Maritime. Growth in the high-margin electronics and space businesses therefore lifts group margin faster than headline revenue growth implies, while shipbuilding volume dilutes it. Capital intensity has risen, with capital expenditure close to £1.1–1.2bn a year as the company funds capacity for the backlog it has already won.

What it does with the cash. FY2025 free cash flow of £2,158m funded a 10% dividend increase and £502m of buybacks, with 30m shares repurchased and cancelled. Net debt excluding leases fell from £4,945m at end-2024 to £3,844m at end-2025 and £3,173m at 30 June 2026, equivalent to about 0.9x underlying EBITDA at the year end. You can follow the price action against these fundamentals on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from BAE Systems' preliminary results announcements and half-year financial reports. Revenue is the statutory IFRS line, not the company's wider "sales" alternative performance measure.

Fiscal YearRevenue (£m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY2021£19,521m+1.3%55.2p47.8p25.1p£4,604m
FY2022£21,258m+8.9%51.1p55.5p27.0p£5,189m
FY2023£23,078m+8.6%61.3p63.2p30.0p£4,432m
FY2024£26,312m+14.0%64.9p68.5p33.0p£7,713m
FY2025£28,336m+7.7%68.8p75.2p36.3p£7,190m

Adjusted EPS is BAE's "underlying earnings per share", which excludes amortisation and impairment of acquired intangibles, pension interest and certain non-recurring items. The FY2021 underlying figure of 47.8p excludes a one-off tax benefit; including it the reported underlying figure was 50.7p. Long-term debt is the non-current loans line from the balance sheet and excludes lease liabilities, which were a further £1,513m at 31 December 2025. The step up in FY2024 reflects the $5.5bn Ball Aerospace acquisition completed in February 2024.

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)£14,615m38.9p34.1p
H2 2025 (derived) †£14,765m40.5p36.5p
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)£13,571m34.7p32.3p
FY2025 (full year)£28,336m75.2p68.8p

† BAE reports on a half-yearly basis only and does not publish quarterly accounts. The H2 2025 line is derived by subtracting the reported H1 2025 figures from the reported FY2025 totals; it is not a separately published statement.

Balance sheet and cash flow, from the FY2025 preliminary results announcement and the H1 2026 half-year financial report. At 30 June 2026 non-current borrowings were £6,686m and current borrowings £701m, against cash and cash equivalents of £4,200m, giving company-reported net debt excluding leases of £3,173m, down from £3,844m at 31 December 2025. Total equity was £12,547m. In FY2025, net cash inflow from operating activities was £3,432m, purchases of property, plant and equipment and intangibles totalled £1,103m, and depreciation, amortisation and impairment added back in the cash flow statement was £1,173m, of which £414m was amortisation of acquired intangibles and related impairment. The Group's share of the post-employment benefit position was a surplus of £1,250m at 31 December 2025 and £1,478m at 30 June 2026, having been a £2,124m deficit at the end of 2021.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Share price1,898.0p (close, 11 September 2026)
Market capApproximately £57.0bn (3,002,419,258 shares excluding treasury at 31 August 2026 × 1,898.0p). The exchange quotes £57.7bn on the gross share count including 146,968,783 treasury shares
Enterprise valueApproximately £60.2bn (market cap £57.0bn + total borrowings £7.39bn − cash £4.20bn, all per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet; borrowings are non-current £6,686m plus current £701m, and BAE discloses no separate marketable securities line)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)Approximately 26.9x (1,898.0p ÷ trailing twelve-month basic GAAP EPS of 70.6p, being H1 2026 34.1p plus derived H2 2025 36.5p). On FY2025 reported basic EPS of 68.8p it is 27.6x; on trailing twelve-month underlying EPS of 79.4p it is 23.9x
P/E (forward)Approximately 22.5x, derived from management's own FY2026 guidance of 11–13% underlying EPS growth on FY2025's 75.2p, giving a range of 83.5p to 85.0p and a midpoint of 84.2p. This is arithmetic on company guidance, not a broker forecast
P/S (TTM)Approximately 1.94x (market cap £57.0bn ÷ trailing twelve-month statutory revenue of £29.38bn, being H1 2026 £14,615m plus derived H2 2025 £14,765m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)Approximately 14.1x (EV £60.2bn ÷ EBITDA £4.28bn). EBITDA is trailing operating profit of about £3.10bn plus trailing depreciation, amortisation and impairment of £1,177m. The D&A used is the wider cash-flow statement add-back, not the narrower £414m acquired-intangible amortisation excluded from underlying EBIT
P/FCFApproximately 24.5x (market cap £57.0bn ÷ free cash flow £2.33bn; FCF = FY2025 operating cash flow £3,432m − capital expenditure £1,103m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). On the company's own reported free cash flow measure of £2,158m it is approximately 26.4x
52-week high2,360.0p
52-week low1,529.0p
Dividend yield (trailing)Approximately 1.9% on the 36.3p declared for FY2025
Short interest (% of float)0.2% of issued share capital, position date 20 August 2026, per the Financial Conduct Authority's aggregated net short positions file. No individual holder has disclosed a position above the 0.5% threshold since February 2022
Days to coverNot derivable for the London line: the FCA's aggregated disclosure publishes a percentage only, with no share count or volume data. Verify at fca.org.uk short-selling disclosures alongside daily LSE turnover (6.97m shares on 11 September 2026)

Caution on the trailing multiples: because BAE reports only twice a year, every trailing figure here depends on a derived H2 2025 half. The underlying and GAAP earnings gap of roughly 9p a share is largely amortisation of intangibles acquired with Ball Aerospace, which is a real historic cash cost but not a recurring one. You can compare the timing of these figures against scheduled macro releases on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

7. What Are They Building

Combat air. The Global Combat Air Programme runs through Edgewing, the joint venture with Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries formed in 2025, which secured its first international contracts worth over £5bn in H1 2026 to complete the concept and assessment phase and fund joint detailed design. In July 2026 at the Farnborough International Airshow BAE unveiled Brontanax, described as the UK's first uncrewed autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft, designed and built at Warton for electronic warfare and precision strike alongside crewed aircraft. On Typhoon, manufacturing is under way for Türkiye's 20-aircraft order with first delivery in 2030, the final two Qatari aircraft were delivered in 2025, and the APKWS precision rocket moved from test firing to operational counter-drone deployment in the Middle East in under two months.

Submarines and surface ships. BAE is running three concurrent submarine programmes — Astute, Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS — with the £5.9bn Dreadnought contract secured in H1 2026 and the keel of HMS Dreadnought laid at Barrow-in-Furness. On surface ships, Norway selected the Type 26 frigate under a £10bn government-to-government agreement that would make it the UK's largest warship export by value, with HMS Glasgow named and four further ships in build at Govan and Scotstoun, where the Janet Harvey Hall now allows two frigates to be built side by side. Canada's River Class destroyer programme has funded its next major phase.

Space, electronic warfare and munitions. Space & Mission Systems is prime contractor on the $1.2bn Epoch 2 US Space Force missile warning and tracking programme, which passed Preliminary Design Review within nine months of award and drew $373m of incremental funding in H1 2026. A seven-year framework with the US Department of War will quadruple production of the THAAD interceptor's infrared seeker. In Australia, BAE is supporting the A$2.5bn export of an Arctic Over the Horizon Radar to Canada, effective 1 July 2026.

Land systems and autonomy. More than $300m is being invested in Hägglunds over five years for European combat vehicle demand, with Bofors adding ARCHER artillery and TRIDON Mk2 counter-drone contracts and the acquisition of Aston Harald Mekaniska Verkstad AB in Sweden to secure precision-machined structures. In the US, an additional $535m M109A7 Paladin award followed the multi-year Army contracts, and AMPV passed its 500th delivery. Autonomy work includes the Nyan one-way effector trialled by the British Army and Royal Navy, the Malloy T-150 electric logistics drone selected by the Royal Navy, and the BAE Systems Anti Threat System counter-drone package entering trials.

Venture and incubation. Launchpad, a technology incubator created in H1 2026, funds early-stage defence technologies past prototype or spins them out; its first spin-out uses ultrasound to transmit data and power through solid barriers. BAE has also committed €50m to venture capital funds backing European defence-technology start-ups. The company states that self-funded research and development increased in FY2025 but discloses the precise figure only in the full Annual Report; the preliminary announcement records a £59m research and development expenditure credit, up from £45m.

8. Competitive Landscape

BAE competes on different axes in each segment: against Rolls-Royce and Thales in the UK, against RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman for US programmes, and increasingly against Rheinmetall for European land systems. No credible published 2026 market-share dataset exists for defence primes, so the table compares scale and a single verifiable operating metric for each.

PeerMarket cap (September 2026)Key 2025 metric
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.L)£118.8bn per the London Stock Exchange, at 1,454.60pThe UK's other defence-and-propulsion heavyweight and BAE's partner on Typhoon and submarine reactors rather than a pure rival; now carries more than twice BAE's market value on a smaller defence revenue base, having re-rated on civil aerospace aftermarket recovery
RTX Corporation (RTX)$266.4bn per FinvizThe largest listed Western defence and aerospace group by market value; competes with BAE's Electronic Systems in sensors and effectors and, through Raytheon, against MBDA in missiles
Lockheed Martin (LMT)$121.0bn per FinvizPrime on F-35, for which BAE builds the rear and aft fuselage, and on THAAD, for which BAE won a seven-year seeker framework in H1 2026 — a customer as much as a competitor
Thales (HO.PA)€46.7bn per companiesmarketcapThe closest European analogue to BAE's Electronic Systems and Cyber & Intelligence segments, and a direct competitor in naval sensors, avionics and secure communications
Rheinmetall (RHM)€46.3bn per companiesmarketcap. Note that TradingEconomics quoted €67.3bn in August 2026 and the two could not be reconciled against an exchange source, so treat this as indicativeThe principal competitor to Platforms & Services in European combat vehicles and ammunition, where BAE's CV90 and BVS10 drove 32% European growth in FY2025
Babcock International (BAB.L)£4.76bn per the London Stock Exchange, at 965.40pThe UK's other naval shipbuilder and the sole provider of deep submarine maintenance at Devonport; partner and competitor to BAE's Maritime segment, with FY2026 revenue of £5,177.7m against BAE Maritime's £6,579m

What the table does not capture is that several of these names are simultaneously customers, suppliers and joint venture partners. BAE holds 37.5% of MBDA alongside Airbus and Leonardo, partners Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Edgewing, and builds fuselage sections for Lockheed Martin. Readers comparing UK defence names can discuss them on the ChartsView Forum.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Charles Woodburn has been Chief Executive since July 2017 and signed both the FY2025 accounts on 17 February 2026 and the H1 2026 accounts on 29 July 2026. Brad Greve is Chief Financial Officer and Cressida Hogg is Chair, having taken the role in May 2023. The board changed materially during the period: John Pettigrew joined as a non-executive director on 23 February 2026, Angus Cockburn took over as chair of the Audit & Risk Committee at the 7 May 2026 AGM as Stephen Pearce prepares to retire at the end of November 2026, and Michelle Hinchliffe joined the board on 1 September 2026.

The only material director dealing of 2026 was a scheduled long-term incentive plan vest in April, where the CEO and one executive director sold part of a vested award to cover tax and retained the balance. All other 2026 notices have been routine monthly Share Incentive Plan purchases of single-digit share volumes.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Charles Woodburn14 Apr 2026Vest (nil-cost exercise)921,217Nil costNil costLTIP performance shares
Charles Woodburn14 Apr 2026Sell (including shares to cover tax)434,058£22.1421£9,610,955.64LTIP sale on XLON; 487,159 shares retained
Karin Hoeing14 Apr 2026Vest (nil-cost exercise)292,819Nil costNil costLTIP performance shares
Karin Hoeing14 Apr 2026Sell (including shares to cover tax)137,970£22.2705£3,072,660.88LTIP sale on XLON; 154,849 shares retained
Ten PDMRs including CEO and CFO14 Apr 2026Buy (partnership) and award (matching)6–7 plus 3 each£22.145De minimisShare Incentive Plan, monthly
PDMRs including CEO and CFO14 Aug 2026Buy (partnership) and award (matching)6–7 plus 3 eachAggregated £15.059–£15.812De minimisShare Incentive Plan, monthly

Context worth holding: the April vest was executed at about £22.14 a share, roughly 17% above the 11 September 2026 price of 1,898p. Woodburn retained 487,159 shares, or 53% of the vest, rather than selling the lot. On the ownership side, the company has been the largest buyer of its own stock, repurchasing and cancelling 30m shares for £502m in FY2025 and a further 12,322,468 shares for £251m in H1 2026.

10. Key Risks

  • Government budget dependency (Macro): essentially all revenue comes from government defence customers, and management's own framing of the H1 2026 outlook rests on governments "responding with sustained increases in their defence budgets". A fiscal reversal in the UK, US, Sweden, Australia or Saudi Arabia would flow directly into order intake.
  • Geopolitical de-rating (Market): the shares fell after the 30 July 2026 half-year print despite an upgrade to every guidance metric, and at 1,898p sit about 20% below the 52-week high of 2,360p. The multiple is being set by expectations about the threat environment, which can compress well before any earnings effect appears.
  • Maritime programme execution (Operational): Maritime underlying EBIT fell 3% to £457m in FY2025 on sales up 11%, with return on sales down to 6.7%. Revenue on Astute, Dreadnought, SSN-AUKUS and Type 26 is recognised progressively against cost estimates that BAE itself identifies as a key source of estimation uncertainty, and the segment carries the largest workforce at 31,900.
  • US concentration and acquired-intangible exposure (Financial): Electronic Systems is the Group's largest profit pool at £1,162m of underlying EBIT and is heavily US-facing following the Ball Aerospace purchase. Goodwill of £12,732m and rising acquired-intangible amortisation of £414m sit against programme outcomes controlled by a single government customer.
  • Cash flow timing and customer advances (Financial): H1 2026 free cash flow of £1,791m rested on roughly £1.6bn of net customer advances, against a £368m outflow in the equivalent prior period. The swing between those two halves is itself the evidence that reported free cash flow is timing-sensitive.
  • Foreign exchange translation (Financial): management quantifies a 5-cent move in sterling against the dollar as worth about £500m of sales, £70m of underlying EBIT and 1.4p of underlying EPS. FY2025 carried a £608m adverse currency translation charge on foreign currency net investments and a £0.6bn reduction in goodwill from dollar translation.
  • Capacity ramp and supply chain (Operational): converting an £84.0bn backlog requires physical capacity that does not yet exist, which is why BAE is spending over $300m on Hägglunds, $135m on Austin and Hudson munitions capacity and roughly £1.1–1.2bn a year in total capital expenditure. Delivery slippage on these ramps would defer revenue recognition rather than cancel it, but the effect on any single year is real.

11. Recent Developments

The twelve months to September 2026 combined record order intake and a guidance upgrade with a falling share price. Items are listed most recent first.

  • 10 Sep 2026 — US Navy awards amphibious ship contract. BAE received a $115.66m contract for the LPD-30 and LPD-31 amphibious transport dock ships, with options that would take the total to $527.53m and completion in December 2028. The previous day it received a $38.2m modification for two MK 45 Mod 4 naval gun overhauls running through March 2030.
  • 30 Jul 2026 — Half-year results and a guidance upgrade on every metric. Revenue of £14,615m, sales of £15,772m up 9% at constant currency, underlying EBIT of £1,701m up 11%, underlying EPS of 38.9p up 13%, free cash flow of £1,791m against a £368m outflow, a record £84.0bn backlog and an interim dividend of 15.0p up 11%. The half also disclosed a £5.9bn Dreadnought contract, over £5bn of first international GCAP contracts through Edgewing, the THAAD seeker framework, and completion of the Aston Harald acquisition in Sweden.
  • 22 Jul 2026 — Brontanax unveiled at Farnborough. BAE revealed what it describes as the UK's first uncrewed autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft, designed and built at Warton for electronic warfare and precision strike missions alongside crewed aircraft.
  • 26 Jun 2026 — Michelle Hinchliffe appointed non-executive director. Effective 1 September 2026, joining the Audit & Risk Committee, bringing KPMG senior leadership experience plus BHP and Macquarie board service relevant to BAE's growing Australian business.
  • 22 Jun 2026 — Third buyback tranche commenced. J.P. Morgan Securities was mandated to purchase up to £500m of shares under the up-to-£1.5bn programme, expected to conclude by 30 June 2027, with all shares cancelled. By mid-August 3,822,185 shares had been acquired at a volume-weighted average price of 1,965.91p.
  • 07 May 2026 — AGM trading update. BAE reported a strong first four months and maintained FY2026 guidance at that point, citing a roughly £2.5bn Türkiye Typhoon contract and about £1.1bn of MBDA European air-defence orders among year-to-date awards.
  • 18 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results set company records. Sales up 10% to £30.7bn, underlying EBIT up 12%, underlying EPS up 12% to 75.2p, free cash flow of £2,158m, a record £83.6bn backlog and a total dividend up 10% to 36.3p, with £1,529m returned to shareholders. Board changes were announced the same day.
  • 27 Oct 2025 — Türkiye signs for 20 Eurofighter Typhoons. The UK Government agreement, the largest UK fighter export in nearly two decades, is expected to deliver approximately £4.6bn to BAE including returns through its 37.5% MBDA holding, with first delivery in 2030.
  • 16 Dec 2025 — Air Astana stake reduced further. BAE announced and completed a placing of Global Depositary Receipts in Air Astana, followed by a further secondary placing on 18 March 2026, continuing the staged exit from the legacy holding. The residual interest is no longer equity accounted.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 22 Oct 2026 — ex-dividend date for the 2026 interim dividend of 15.0p, with a record date of 23 October 2026
  • 02 Dec 2026 — payment date for the 2026 interim dividend of 15.0p, the only event currently listed on BAE's own financial calendar
  • Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 preliminary results, which will confirm whether the upgraded guidance of 8–10% sales growth, 10–12% underlying EBIT growth and free cash flow above £2.0bn was met. BAE has not yet published a confirmed date
  • Expected Apr 2027 — ex-dividend date for the 2026 final dividend, based on the prior-year pattern of 23 April 2026, with payment expected in June 2027
  • Expected May 2027 — Annual General Meeting and trading update, based on the 7 May 2026 precedent. No date has been published
  • 30 Jun 2027 — expected conclusion of the third £500m tranche of the share buyback programme
  • Expected Nov 2026 — retirement of Stephen Pearce from the board at the end of the month

No Capital Markets Day is currently scheduled on BAE's investor events pages. Because the company reports only twice a year, the gap between the July half-year print and the February preliminary results is long, and the interim dividend timetable above is the only firm company-published date before then.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loading research report…

13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
68 / 100

The central thesis. BAE Systems sells long-duration platforms and munitions to governments and then earns again for decades supporting what it sold, across combat air, submarines and warships, combat vehicles, electronic warfare and space systems. FY2025, reported on 18 February 2026, set records: statutory revenue of £28,336m, underlying EBIT of £3,322m at a 10.8% return on sales, underlying EPS of 75.2p, free cash flow of £2,158m and a £83.6bn order backlog on £36.8bn of order intake. On 30 July 2026 management upgraded every FY2026 guidance metric — sales growth to 8–10%, underlying EBIT to 10–12%, underlying EPS to 11–13% and free cash flow to above £2.0bn — alongside a record £84.0bn backlog. The primary driver is sustained government defence spending converting an order book worth roughly three years of revenue into delivered work, with a £5.9bn Dreadnought contract and over £5bn of first international GCAP awards booked in the half.

What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be FY2026 preliminary results landing inside the upgraded guidance ranges with Maritime margin recovering from FY2025's 6.7% return on sales, and free cash flow holding up once the roughly £1.6bn of H1 2026 customer advances unwinds. The thesis breaks if the multiple continues to compress on geopolitical de-escalation regardless of delivered earnings — the shares already sit about 20% below their 2,360p 52-week high despite the upgrade — or if programme execution on the concurrent Astute, Dreadnought, SSN-AUKUS and Type 26 builds produces cost-estimate revisions in a segment that already saw order intake fall to £5.0bn from £8.7bn in FY2025.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "A backlog that pre-sells years of revenue:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Geopolitical de-rating (Market):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 4
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
0 of 7
Recent news
Net upgrades
Generated
13 Sep 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 13 Sep 2026.